TJ Rives:
And we did point it out on the show during the Q&A, you said, “I don’t understand it,” at the time. “I don’t understand why that line is 11,” or whatever it was, 11 and a half and Hartford gets the win. Let’s look officially at where we are to this point before we go into the picks and the prognostication on a Tuesday. You see the Big Man on campus there up at the top. Mid Major Matt comes in just above the 500 line, looking to improve on today’s show. And let’s begin things and get it underway with a game in the MAC. And one thing you know about this show, the guys love to go back to teams that have been succeeding. You’re going to see a theme with that a couple of times on the show today. Let’s begin with Kent State and Toledo, Toledo laying the eight points and the total at 146. Mid Major Matt has our first official play. What do you like, sir?
Matt Joseph:
For people who have watched this, they know where I’m going and it’s something that’s been working all the way through. Look, and you even have the revenge angle here. Toledo scored 63 points against these guys. They lost 66-63 way back on New Year’s Day. Since then, they’ve scored 75 points or more, even in the loss to Ball State. Look, there’s not much in the way of explanation here. Toledo is number one in offense in the MAC, in two point percentage, three point percentage, their second in free throw percentage in conference play, revenge on their mind. Kent State’s going to try and slow them down, I don’t think it’s going to happen. Toledo team total over. Look, last night, the Vermont team total over lost but it took two starters being out and it took a missed free threw by Shungu in overtime or else it would have hit two. I’m going to keep playing the Toledo team total. Eventually it’s not going to hit but it’s a reasonable number and I’m going to keep playing it and I think they’d take their revenge on Kent State tonight and get a rather easy victory.
TJ Rives:
Jeff Naidu, any thoughts here? You’ve also been on this Toledo team a couple of times on the show. Any thoughts about this game even if not an official play here?
Jeff Naidu:
Well, I think that the most important thing you have to do as a person betting this kind of stuff is watch these teams. He’s obviously watched Toledo but I’ll tell you a little bit about this Kent State group. You talk about a team playing some real good basketball right now, it’s this team. I backed them on Friday [inaudible 00:05:54] a little too high. I think they’re a little overvalued in this game. I think they’ll probably score but I’m not sure of it. This is a damn good defense in Kent State and they really play the opposite end of the way Toledo wants to play. Kent State’s really going to slow things down, they’ve been really good in the half court, just were awesome and have been awesome defensively recently. But I like them more just plus the eight. I think they can hang around and keep this one close.
Jeff Naidu:
The return of Giovanni Santiago has been huge for them. You really look at some of the three point issues, he was terrific the other night from three. Sincere Carry’s playing at a high level. I like Justyn Hamilton, the kid from Temple who we’ve talked about, he’s now at Kent State. I like this team, I don’t mind maybe taking a little shot here with the Golden Flashes. I think the game is probably close. I thought he was a bit high but, hey, you have to bet things that you’re comfortable with and Matt’s obviously comfortable with it. I don’t know. I feel like anytime you play teams at Kent State, Akron, some of these groups, you generally will play at their tempo but I get it, I get why he’s playing it.
TJ Rives:
Again, for Toledo, they’re 12 and two in the MAC, tied with Ohio going into play tonight. Kent State right below them at 10 and four. So, obviously, for conference tournament seating, that kind of stuff, tiebreakers, tonight’s game becomes important for that reason. And back to a theme here just for everybody watching, we’re here Monday through Friday at 1:00 Eastern Time. You guys have been talking about it, keep writing something until it obviously fizzles out. We were talking about IUPUI, Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis and how depleted they are and going against them, team total unders. They don’t have personnel, they can’t seem to get to 55 points, didn’t get to 55 points last night, you keep hammering to the negative on them not being able to score. But in this case, Matt for Toledo, one more time, it is your loving their offense more so than a side in this game.
Matt Joseph:
Well, I think the biggest thing also is unit size. There’s going to be games where I love when Toledo dies. The game against Northern Illinois, when it was a lower number, that was a two or three unit play. This is probably just a one unit because, yeah, I am concerned about the pace. But you look at the teams that they’ve played and they’ve been able to instill their pace on a lot of those slower teams. And even when they’re not playing at that slower pace, they’re still scoring. I go back to that Akron game, they scored 84 points in 68 possessions. Now, look, I do like this Kent State team, I love Sincere Carry. I’ve said on the show before that I don’t know how Justyn Hamilton, all of a sudden, got very good after watching him for Temple. But it’s just a thing that I’m going to play it like I always do, but I’m just going to play it for a lower unit size.
Jeff Naidu:
I will say, TJ, just when you look at the first game these two teams played, I think the concerning thing to me would be for Toledo. All due respect to them, they were dominated defensively, they couldn’t do anything. They scored 63 points and shot 28 free throws. Let’s say you cut that in half, they may not have hit 50 in that game, just a dreadful effort. So, you have to figure, that’s an outlier, that’s probably not going to happen again. But it seems like Kent State, if they get solid production out of Jacobs, Carry and Santiago, maybe a little Hamilton, this is a really tough team just with how they defend. I think I could look at this at the end of the night and be very surprised if we were getting eight points with Kent State. This is a solid team and you know what? I’m adding this. Kent State plus eight. I’m going to add this. Can I add this, please?
TJ Rives:
You absolutely can add. I like that. Sometimes these guys like to talk themselves into picks on the show and, as you were saying, yesterday you didn’t make it official with the mug up in the air for Hartford but you want to go ahead and do that now for Kent State tonight-
Jeff Naidu:
Well, [inaudible 00:09:46]
TJ Rives:
… and have it as the official-
Jeff Naidu:
I have the Temple logo up there.
TJ Rives:
It’s okay, the mug is symbolic even though it’s a Temple mug. The symbolic mug for Kent State plus the eight will lock a Jeff in even though you don’t see on the screen. You will see Mid Major Matt’s play on the screen. Let’s lock him in officially and it is on the team total of the Toledo Rockets tonight over the 77 on the BetUS line. So, good luck, Matt, with that play on the team total in writing that streak and what it’s doing. All right. So, we continue and we stay in the same conference, the Mid-American Conference and we swing out to Muncie, Indiana where the Ball State Cardinals are hosting Northern Illinois. Ball State laying nine, our total is 144 and a half and Matt going right back for some action for a play on this one. What do we like on this matchup?
Matt Joseph:
So, I went back and forth and I wasn’t sure if I wanted to play the Ball State team total over or the game over. So, I decided to go with the game over and, if you look at all those positive numbers that Toledo has, top two in everything, Ball State’s right behind them in a lot of things. They’re fourth in two point percentage, third in three point percentage and you look at this offensive numbers at home, they’re just really good. And we just saw Toledo put up 100 on Northern Illinois in their place. These two played back on January 27th, it was a 74-67 game. Ball State’s defense isn’t that great. You look at some of the numbers they’ve allowed so far in conference, Western Michigan’s a terrible offense, they beat them at 83-72 at home.
Matt Joseph:
You look at some of the other offenses that they’ve played and they’ve struggled against them to slow them down. I think Ball State’s score an 80 this game and so, basically, all I need is 65 from Northern Illinois. And look, that’s been a struggle for them a lot of times this season, they’re not a good offense, they’re not a good team but their defensive numbers are so bad and they’re so leaky that I’ll include Northern Illinois and take the over in this game. Look, the Northern Illinois, gave up 100 to Toledo, they gave up 87 at Bowling Green, they gave up 85 at Miami of Ohio, they gave up 94 Toledo. So, Ball State’s offense is right up there and their defense is bad enough that I will say let’s include Northern Illinois and take the game over in this one.
TJ Rives:
All right. Jeff, thoughts on this other MAC matchup that Matt is beginning to show with here?
Jeff Naidu:
Yeah, I don’t have much on it. I think the line is right around where it should be. I’m not blown away by Ball State by any means and I’ll give Northern Illinois some credit. They hang around in games, but to be involved with them, I need 12 or more. They seem to be right around that lose every game by 10 points or so. They’ve had some close calls. You look at any time they’ve stepped out and Toledo destroyed them the other night, Bowling Green beat them up. So, they struggle with pace, it seems like.
Jeff Naidu:
Ball State’s going to definitely play with pace. They didn’t shoot the ball real well the first time and I think where Matt has dead on the money, you’d expect better shooting numbers here. I will tell you this, and I noticed one of the plays Ian Cameron had last night, I mentioned sometimes when you find teams you like, you look at Delaware last night, Delaware put up a lot of points but their opponent didn’t and that’s the problem with these totals sometimes. And I think, Matt, he’s the team total guy for the most part. I’m surprised he didn’t just play a Ball State team total here.
Jeff Naidu:
I worry a lot about Northern Illinois and their ability to score, they do nothing at all well. They turn the ball over constantly, they’re a truly horrific offensive team, I don’t trust them whatsoever to put points on the board. If I had to play anything, I would lean Ball State especially if he thinks they’re going to get to 80. I don’t want anything to do with Northern Illinois on any level offensively.
TJ Rives:
All right. The play is Matt’s though, it is an over play on the 144 and a half line that we have at BetUS for the matchup tonight in the MAC. A reminder here, you can see a couple of more games on our schedule, both in the SEC, we will get to your questions and answers in the Q&A. Get those going here because there are several games of interest. You know I’m bringing up Memphis and Cincinnati to the guys. If you have other ones besides that, get them in. Reminder, too, however you found us and wherever you found us, hit the like button, subscribe, share it out. More and more of you are finding the show as we head towards March. We’re here each and every weekday, Monday through Friday, 1:00 Eastern time. You see it right there like hit the bell, subscribe on BetUS and BetUS TV. If you’re wanting some college basketball advice, these guys do a fantastic job of breaking these different games down.
TJ Rives:
Let’s go to the SEC for our next game and it involves the Arkansas Razorbacks, a team that we have frequently talked about on this show, playing at Missouri tonight in a Southeastern Conference matchup where Mizzou is the home doggie getting seven and a half. Arkansas off a tough, emotional loss to Alabama. They had quite a week in the state of Alabama or against the state of Alabama. They beat Auburn at home as the number one team in the country about a week ago, and then came in on the weekend and really battled back down the stretch of the game before losing to Alabama. The total, 138 in this game for Arkansas staying back out on the road here to play Missouri. Jeff Naidu, you have the official play. What do you like?
Jeff Naidu:
Yeah. Matt, obviously, you played some of the teams that he likes with the MAC. This is really a play for me on a team that I’m really high on. Maybe I’m a little too high but I think their stuff speaks for themselves defensively. I look at this game, first of all, first thing I said was, “I think that’s a double digit win for Arkansas.” As you said, coming off a close loss, did cover that game the other day, though, against Alabama, they were right in the game. They have not had these bad performances against bad teams, they take care of every bad team they’d play for the most part, including an 87-43 win at home against the same Missouri team. You’re going to tell me a change of venue is going to be any different here? The thought of the matter, whether you like Arkansas or not, this is an elite defensive team, it’s that simple. This isn’t just a flash in the pan couple of games, they’re an elite defensive team. How does Missouri score here?
Jeff Naidu:
Look, I know Missouri has been tough in certain games, particularly the Auburn game, things like that. But when I look at Arkansas, I just see a team that’s playing its best basketball right now. I think they’re just a big problem for Missouri in this game. You look at just the ability of Notae right now, Jaylin Williams is playing as one of the best two way players in the country, they don’t turn it over, they value possessions and, generally, as I said, they blow out bad opponents. I’m only laying seven and a half here, I don’t have to lay 12 or 10, I just need a double digit victory. I don’t think Missouri’s very good, I think the luck’s run out for this team in stepping up and facing good opponents. They’re off a win which is good here and they probably had a good game over the weekend. Maybe they’re not as [inaudible 00:16:25] a good one here. So, I’m looking at Arkansas, it’s really just a play on a team that I’ve liked a lot. I’m going to bang on them here at the window by double digits.
TJ Rives:
Yeah, the only concern is, again, they narrowly lost to Auburn recently, they did win against Ole Miss, they won earlier this year against Alabama at home. They seem to be a different team at home and a lot of teams are, we brought that up on the show.
Jeff Naidu:
I think-
TJ Rives:
Yeah?
Jeff Naidu:
Real quick. One other thing to add. I think that the big concern as well here is you look at the free throw attempt rate for Arkansas, one thing I’ve noticed about this team, they’re very adept at getting to the free throw line, 18th in America in that metric. This is a Missouri team that they can’t fall back on that same defensive stuff. Xavier Pinson is long gone, they have guys that are just not there anymore and this team can’t defend without fouling, they’ve struggled to defend. I just think Arkansas is significantly better than Missouri. I’m going to root for some 75-63 type of game here.
TJ Rives:
Matt, any thoughts here on this one in the SEC?
Matt Joseph:
This is where I disagree with Jeff. We go back to the-
TJ Rives:
What a surprise. You [crosstalk 00:17:27].
Matt Joseph:
Oh, well, no. I’m not saying I’m playing Missouri here but I just did targets on the road and, Arkansas, on the road is just not as good of a team. You know what? You could go back and point to the Alabama game but I don’t have a lot of respect for Alabama. I talked about this on Friday’s show that I think, outside of Auburn and Kentucky, the SEC could have a lot of one and dones. I just think that those two teams are the best and the other teams in this conference aren’t good. And you look, TJ started running down, in conference, they beat Alabama at home, they lost by three to Texas A&M, they lost by one to Auburn, they lost by one Florida and then they beat Ole Miss. Missouri is not a good team, I understand that. All the numbers, there’s not a lot of green in any things that they do this year but I don’t trust Arkansas on the road. And look, they’re coming off a really tough loss, that’s in your favor because when they’ve had tough losses, they’ve come back and they played better.
Matt Joseph:
They’ve got Tennessee on Saturday, that’s far enough away, I don’t think you’re going to have a look ahead spot and the Missouri game was an obvious one on January 12th. They lost three straight and they have a bad team coming into their building, of course they were going to pound on them. I had the team total over in that game and they went over by the 10-minute mark in the second half. I just don’t trust Arkansas on the road, I hope they win, I hope they’re wrong and then on Friday, I’ll come on, I’ll say I’m wrong, Arkansas is really good. But Missouri plays well at home and Arkansas, at times on the road, is just a sketchy team. So, I wish you luck on this one, I’m just not a Razorbacks guy on the road.
Jeff Naidu:
Weird flex considering the last three road games outside of Saturday, Arkansas has won by seven, nine and 33. So, I don’t know.
TJ Rives:
And one other note, they did have issues in Tuscaloosa Saturday with JD Notae in foul trouble. He got two fouls right away in the game, in the first 90 seconds in Sat.
Jeff Naidu:
[inaudible 00:19:10]
TJ Rives:
Musselman setting the whole rest of the half and they stayed in the game, then they’re down 10 with about four, five minutes left and made a run to stay in the game and ended up covering. We’ll see what it translates to in Columbia, Missouri tonight. Will Eric Musselman keep the shirt on with the shoulder harness from the shoulder surgery? He did on Saturday in Tuscaloosa, he did not when he was celebrating with his own fans after the Auburn win. But one thing we know is the Big Man is on the side of the Hogs, woo pig sooie.
TJ Rives:
He is laying the points in this one tonight at Columbia against the Mizzou Tigers laying the seven and a half. Again, we’ll get to the Q&A, plenty of games, some time to get to games that you’re interested in. One more SEC game and this is a traditional rival between Tennessee and Kentucky. It comes up in Knoxville, Thompson Bowling Arena. The Volunteers who have looked good recently now will play one of the Godzillas of the SEC, Kentucky, who looked fantastic in dismantling Florida at home.
TJ Rives:
Tennessee a point and a half favorite, very juicy. I don’t know, I haven’t looked you guys, probably we’ll look in here. How many times in SEC play has Kentucky been an underdog this year? I can’t believe it’s more than a couple but, nonetheless, they are an underdog tonight. The total at 140 for this one and we’re back to Jeff Naidu. What’s the play tonight, Big Man?
Jeff Naidu:
Tennessee is the play tonight. Since the game that Tennessee got absolutely destroyed against the same Kentucky team, 107-79, they’ve won seven of eight overall. The only loss, a one point away loss at Texas, that Big 12/SEC Challenge. This team has been on point. Defensively, as usual, very solid but it’s really been the talk this year is in their offense. Kennedy Chandler, I watched him against Mississippi State, what a player, just blows by everyone. One thing I like about Tennessee this year is people are back in their normal positions. Vescovi doesn’t have to handle the ball anymore, that’s Chandler’s job now. Vescovi’s more in a better role and he’s worked out perfectly, guys. You look at this, 182 three point attempts this year, shooting 40%. This is the kind of role Vescovi needs to be in. He was asked last year to take on ball duties and it didn’t work well, he wasn’t in his right position. Zakai Zeigler comes off the bench and gives them a nice punch. Jordan James and Fulkerson, as usual, very solid on the perimeter and underneath, they’ve got good depth.
Jeff Naidu:
I just really like this team and they’re in major events. Their rival destroyed them in the first game. You look at tonight for Kentucky, lot of concern. First of all, just one of these road spots against a team that’s out for blood. Throw in the fact that I think it’s pretty much a foregone conclusion looking at this line that TyTy Washington is not going to play for Kentucky. And look, the truth of the matter is that’s a huge loss. I think, if you watch Kentucky, you know on both ends, that’s a big time loss.
Jeff Naidu:
He handles everything they do offensively, he does a lot of good things to them, a real good assist rate, just a good player. I think he’s going to hurt on both ends. You talk about a team that struggles on the road, occasionally, Kentucky. I look at a couple big games, lost to Auburn, lost to LSU, have had some close calls on the road. But I look at this, I think it’s a huge bar for Tennessee who, by the way, guys, KenPom, 10th in KenPom. I don’t think anyone’s not surprised by that. I don’t think anyone thinks Tennessee’s a top 10 team.
Jeff Naidu:
Matt, let me ask you. Matt, you’re a smart guy. If I said to you, “Is Tennessee a top 10 team?” Would most college basketball fans say yes? It seems like they’re just secret, no one’s seeing this group right now.
Matt Joseph:
Yeah, I agree. I don’t think they’re a top 10 team. And look, I haven’t watched enough of Tennessee to say. I like Kentucky but, you’re right, the TyTy Washington stuff, if he’s not playing tonight which … I wouldn’t play him tonight, I’ll let him rest a little bit, get him ready for Alabama or get him ready for a little bit later. Kentucky’s in, their seating’s pretty close, they’re not going to get a one seat, I don’t think, unless they win the SEC tournament which they would need TyTy for anyway. I don’t disagree with any of this logic, I think Tennessee is the side here. I do like Kentucky, I’ve seen them a bunch, but by the same logic I used in the other game, Kentucky’s worst performances have come on the road and it’s considering that they put up 107 on Tennessee. I think the Volunteers are going to have something for then here. So, I agree with the lean.
Jeff Naidu:
You also look at, TJ, Tennessee over the last couple of years. They’ve had people like Yvez Pons who, great defensive player but some of these guys are just bottom of the barrel offensively, it’s like playing five against four. Not this year. Josiah-Jordan James can give you 20, John Fulkerson has always been a very good big for them, kind of does at all. This is just a total starting five that’s playing really well right now, you always know you’re going to get a good defensive team. And the difference between this game and the game back on January 15th is TyTy Washington’s not going to be in there. By the way, in that game, TyTy was at 28 points. He was eight for nine from two, two for four from three and six for six from the line at five assists and three steals. Not going to have him tonight, that’s a huge loss.
TJ Rives:
No doubt. I asked and I went and looked while you guys were going back and forth a little bit. So, Kentucky has been a road underdog in the SEC three times so far this year. They were two point underdogs at LSU, lost and did not cover, LSU beat them by five. They were four point underdogs at Auburn, again, lost and did not cover. Big Man is smiling. They were a one point underdog against Alabama in Tuscaloosa and obviously won the game. So, one in two as a road dog in the SEC so far this year. Now, they did go to Kansas as a five point underdog in the mix there in the Big 12/SEC Challenge and boat raised them as a five point underdog. But for SEC games, they’re one in two. Tonight they are the underdog and the Big Man says, “Give me Tennessee and I don’t need the point, I want the money line here with the Volunteers.” I’m going to lock him in officially.
Jeff Naidu:
I don’t mind landing at one and a half. Just sometimes, at one and a half, if I get the right 120, I’ll just take the money on but I don’t mind one and a few.
TJ Rives:
It is a money line play or it could be lay the point and a half. Again, if you think they’re going to win, so you make that move and get that done. And again, it’s a rivalry game and for Kentucky, obviously, they’re vying for a number one seat potentially. Depending here, road game in the SEC, we’ll see what happens in this one. All right, time for a little bit of Q&A. Let me say this, I didn’t say it at the outset but I will go ahead and begin in the Q&A, we’ll get to your questions and answers in a moment. At this time, I have not seen an update from Dick Vitale or anybody with ESPN associated with him. He was having voice surgery today. He was cleared to have voice surgery today in a Massachusetts hospital. I know we’ve said this before, guys, we wish 82-year-old Dick Vitale well.
TJ Rives:
He’s been unable to be part of ESPN’s coverage in January and will not be able to be with them all the way through March Madness. They’re wanting him to conserve his voice, cancer treatment that’s affecting his voice. So, Dickie V, I saw a post earlier in the morning, his scheduled surgery time was somewhere around 10:00 a.m. Sometimes those things take longer and later you’re delayed, whatever. Again, our hearts go out to Vitale, his family, everybody. Hopefully, Dickie V comes out all right with everything that’s going on. So, I just wanted to share that. Guys, anything else you want to say on that? That’s going on and he’s obviously an iconic figure, there’s no doubt.
Jeff Naidu:
Yeah, we’ve talked about him. Obviously, getting old is a concerning thing for everyone, no one wants to get old. We’ve talked about, though, his rise in basketball. Look, is he occasionally annoying? Sure but we can’t argue with his passion. And, anytime you have someone that has a passion for something, you have to align with what they do. He started as an elementary school coach-
TJ Rives:
Right.
Jeff Naidu:
… and worked his way up to college.
TJ Rives:
[crosstalk 00:27:11]
Jeff Naidu:
Yeah, now he’s one of the most recognizable people in college basketball and he’s done a lot of good things. When we end up losing people like Dickie V, this is the sad thing about getting old, we lose all these titans and he’s one of them. He’s just a good guy and I hope he makes it through.
TJ Rives:
Yup, no doubt. Matt, anything else you want to add? I don’t want to short you if you got anything else for Dickie V because I know a lot of people are going to be concerned and ESPN will be talking about this, I’m sure, in the coming day or so here with his voice surgery, et cetera.
Matt Joseph:
Nope, let’s move on to the questions.
TJ Rives:
No doubt about that. All right, let’s get to it. We’ve got some of you that have some questions. I know Matt’s got a couple of games that he wants to talk about. Huge one tonight in the Big East. Providence and Villanova here in this matchup and we’ve been talking about the Providence Friars. There’s going to be some debate here about this big regular season mash up that is coming here this evening between these two Big East teams. Guys, thoughts on this? The line at four and a half. Villanova the road favorite in Providence at four and a half. Any thoughts here, guys, real quick?
Jeff Naidu:
I know I always say it and I’ll bring some reason to back it up today. I know Matt probably knows this and, Jordan Majewski, a great colleague of ours, he put out some interesting stuff about the luck rating involved with Providence. KenPom has a luck rating, it measures how lucky a team is to shot qualities and things like that. Providence is the luckiest team since 2008. Wagner in KenPom’s database. That’s over 14 years ago. This team is super lucky. Every game they play, the right things go their way. And there’s nothing wrong with that. You need luck, occasionally, it’s just how it goes. But I think they’re very tough to deal with, tough to bet on, tough to bet against. This is a tough conference to me in general. I feel like, Villanova, this is typically a good spot for them. But look, I don’t think there’s any great team in this conference and I’m just done betting in to Providence. I don’t know how to gauge this group anymore.
TJ Rives:
I want a little more from either one of you. Jeff, you brought it up. What goes into the lucky formula here? What’s in the stewpot that turns them into the luckiest team according to the metric in 15 years?
Jeff Naidu:
Well, I think a lot of it just has to do with the shots that went in that shouldn’t have went in. Maybe Matt could shed a little bit more light. I’ve never got into the true what exactly goes, everything into operating and shot quality. But really just stuff like missed free throws, I’m sure, at the end, turnovers in the right or wrong spots. I’d be interested knowing the potion that goes into luck rating more of just the real deep stuff. That’s a good question. I don’t know if I have the full answer to that.
TJ Rives:
Matt, do you have anything that goes into the luck rating or I don’t really know?
Matt Joseph:
Yes, it’s the same thing that probably goes in the NET rating, we’ll never understand, who knows? It’s-
TJ Rives:
I know this. I know they had problems with DePaul and had to beat them in overtime but they beat Georgetown by 19, they won over St. John’s by four, they beat Marquette by two, they’ve had some narrow games, they beat Xavier by three. So, in those situations, obviously, things have to go right, you have to take care of the ball when your opponent doesn’t, you have to make free throws when your opponent doesn’t, you have to make a key shot when your opponent doesn’t if you’re going to keep winning close games, I mean, guys.
Jeff Naidu:
I guess, case in point, something interesting with Providence. Look at that game against Marquette back on January 30th. I guess something lucky would be something along the lines of an 80% free throw shooting. They have misses, a couple of free throws at the end of the game and it doesn’t matter. They end up, the other team misses a wide open shot and they win the game. I don’t know what goes into it. That’s a good way of describing what it is by Matt, I don’t know if we’ll ever know but I just think they’re super lucky. They’ve shot in over their head, they get to the free throw line a lot and a lot of things seem to go their way in every game.
TJ Rives:
I just know this, 21 and two in a league like this, that’s a lot of good in that. So, if they win tonight over Villanova, are we giving them more than just lucky on that front? I’m just playing around, you’re not saying it’s all lucky.
Jeff Naidu:
[inaudible 00:31:28]
TJ Rives:
But if they beat Villanova who’s the second best team in the league to improve the 12 and one in the Big East, which is one of the three best leagues right now, three or four best leagues in college basketball.
Jeff Naidu:
Listen, I’m just going to say this and I’ll say it very vividly right now. God as my witness, you are all my witnesses. This team will lose in the first round of the NCAA Tournament, watch. They’ll be a three seat or something and they’ll lose to Vermont or South Dakota [inaudible 00:31:56].
TJ Rives:
They keep winning like what they’re winning like, they might end up being a two or a one.
Jeff Naidu:
Listen, this league sucks, okay? I hate to tell people. It’s not a good league. There’s a bunch of very average basketball teams here, it’s just that simple. Sorry, that’s my opinion. Are they 21 and two? Yeah, I’ll give them respect for that, that’s not easy. I think they have, if not one of the best, the best home court advantages in basketball, it’s quite simple. But let’s look at their out of conference. Texas Tech, solid win, Wisconsin but most of the other stuff was, it was nonsense. I can’t say the word I was going to say. Yeah, we’ll see what happens but I think they’re a first round exit, I really do.
TJ Rives:
I don’t know that I go along with that one. You’re out there on the limb on your own on that one. All right, we’ll see how they do tonight with them laying the points. All right. Mark wants to know, VCU and Fordham. Mid Major Matt, what do we think about this matchup tonight?
Matt Joseph:
Oh, okay. I will chime in on that one as I didn’t get to chime in as much on the other one. All right. So, it’s funny because I think this is a good spot for Fordham tonight, I kind of do. And look, this is really tough because everybody sees Fordham for what they were in the past but Kyle Neptune’s building something decent here. And if we find out that Darius Quisenberry is playing in this game, I think I would play Fordham, they’re eight and a half right now. And if you look at this Rams team, once again, this is like I’m looking at Missouri here.
Matt Joseph:
At home, Fordham beat Rhode Island, they lost by three to Davidson, they lost by 13 to Richmond, bad matchup there, they beat Duquesne outright. That doesn’t mean very much. And now, remember, there was a long stretch of this year where Fordham didn’t have any fans, it was just basically the band and that was it. And now the home students are there and it’s been a little bit of a difference. You watch some of their games, at least, there’s some noise in atmosphere and this Fordham team has liked it a little bit.
Matt Joseph:
VCU’s coming off their best performance of the year. I mean, the George Mason game was the best they performed all year. They scored 85 points which, for this team, is quite a bit because they struggle to get to 70 on some nights. And luckily, VCU turns the ball over a ton but if you look at the A-10 numbers, Fordham is forcing turnovers around 20% of the possessions in A-10 play. I think Fordham can give VCU a little bit of the havoc style that VCU gives opponents here. And look, there’s also the big game coming up Friday night, VCU is hosting Richmond, it is the rivalry game. If there’s two wins a year that VCU fans want, it’s the Richmond game and then the ODU game as well. But this is a tricky little trip between George Mason and Richmond, and then after the Richmond game is another game against George Mason. So, I think, having watched the Rams a lot, look, I could lose this game rather easily but I think there’s a chance.
Matt Joseph:
Fordham gets up for this one, I think they play really well. I think there’s a small chance they win this game outright. I would have made an official play on this show if I knew Quisenberry was playing, we don’t know that. It came last minute that he wasn’t playing for the last game. So, I would say if it comes out that Fordham has Quisenberry, I think there’s a chance they win this game outright but I’ll take the eight and a half points right now and hope it goes up a little higher.
TJ Rives:
All right. Jeff, any thoughts here on this one?
Jeff Naidu:
Yeah, I couldn’t agree more. I think it’s a rough little spot. Going up the rose hill isn’t easy. By the way, Fordham, a beautiful place. I’ve always said the Bronx is the best in the boroughs. And, quite honestly, if there were three spots on earth I could be right now, it’d be at Pasquale’s Rigoletto on Arthur Avenue in Brooklyn or in the Bronx and then head up to Pugsley’s for a slice. Nothing better than Little Italy in the Bronx and Fordham is right near it. Yeah, I think it’s a good spot.
Jeff Naidu:
Neptune is building something, he’s a New York High School legend and they have some solid players. Obviously, you mentioned Quisenberry, Antonio Daye, a kid from FIU. I’m not a big VCU guy, they always play a lot of low scoring games anyway. I look back to a game they played against St. Peters, I think it was St. Peter, no, it was Wagner actually back very early in the season. Every game is first to 60 wins. I think it’s a little spot for Fordham where they can maybe hang around, maybe a 60, 55 type of game, I could see it.
TJ Rives:
All right. So, that is the matchup in the A-10 this evening. By the way, the Big Man did talk about the luck factor with Villanova, said they’re going to lose in the first round, said the Big East Conference sucks and they’re a bunch of overrated teams. Matt, did you have anything else that you wanted to go back at the Big East about or maybe you disagreed with some of that? I didn’t want to shortchange you if you did.
Matt Joseph:
No, I’ll say this. If Providence wins this game, final game of the season, Villanova hosts Providence, Villanova’s been really good in those revenge games, Villanova will beat them by 20 at home. I almost hope Providence wins tonight so I can pound Villanova in that game because people will bet Providence and bet that thing down, Villanova will crush them. Look, I like Moore, I like Gillespie, I’m guessing they’re getting closer and closer to 100% although, at times, Gillespie looks like he’s favoring the ankle a little bit, I don’t know. I saw somebody say, “Oh, the Dunkin’ Donuts Center is the best place to watch college basketball. The best atmosphere in college basketball.” I don’t know about that. I’ve seen a lot of great atmospheres in college basketball, but we’ll see. This is going to be the true test of the luck factor because Villanova is the better team, they’re actually a lot better than Providence. So, we’ll see tonight if the luck comes into play. I’m not laying points on the road with Villanova here but I’m not playing Providence at home, just no.
Jeff Naidu:
By the way, that individual that said that was John Fanta who works for the Big East. I think that was a little promotion over there but-
TJ Rives:
A little exaggeration, maybe.
Jeff Naidu:
Yes. It is a good home court.
Matt Joseph:
That was a big exaggeration.
Jeff Naidu:
Yeah, it’s a good home court. Some of those SEC buildings are awesome.
TJ Rives:
Well, there’s this place called Cambrian, there’s this place called Phog Allen, Rupp Arena-
Matt Joseph:
Gonzaga.
TJ Rives:
… Breslin Center, Gonzaga, you can go down the list. McKale Center, Tucson, Providence isn’t in that category. I’ve done a couple of games, actually, at Providence. The one thing, it’s interesting because it’s older and it’s been renovated. It’s more of a hockey arena and it’s more spread out than a lot of basketball arenas where they’re right on you. We’ll see. It’ll be an atmosphere tonight for Villanova, there’s no doubt. All right, couple more-
Jeff Naidu:
By the way, TJ.
TJ Rives:
Yeah, go ahead. Yeah?
Jeff Naidu:
People in the chat are vilifying me because I hate Villanova. Look, I don’t like Villanova, it’s not really that surprising. I root for Temple, I’ve rooted for Temple since I was a kid and, if you root for Temple, you don’t like Villanova, Matt knows that, it’s pretty simple. It’s very easy to hate Villanova.
Matt Joseph:
Very easy.
Jeff Naidu:
Unless you live here, you don’t understand. Villanova is out in a ritzy area, a lot of uppity kids, it’s just that simple. It’s not that you-
TJ Rives:
They win all the time. They won national championships, I know.
Jeff Naidu:
Yeah, right. Right, right.
TJ Rives:
Okay.
Matt Joseph:
They also want to destroy the Big Five-
Jeff Naidu:
Yes.
Matt Joseph:
… but hey, we’ll just, you know.
TJ Rives:
Okay, we move on. Andrew watching says, “Good afternoon, fellas. Tulane, are they a team total first half against USF tonight? South Florida, the Bulls. The team total is 30 and a half.” Do we have a recommend for Andrew watching us? Either one of you?
Jeff Naidu:
I mean, [crosstalk 00:38:50].
Matt Joseph:
The one thing South Florida does is play defense. It’s the one thing they do is they’re actually decent at defense and, no. Look, the first time they played it was a 68-54 game at Tulane and Tulane only scored 31 points, there’s so many things. I’ll tell you, I’ll channel my inner Jeff and say, some of these questions … No, I’m just kidding. But why would you go there when there’s all these games on the board and there’s all these things we’ve recommended. Unless there’s some angle he sees that we don’t or some injury, USF, the only thing they do is play defense and they play slow, I can’t see a lot of possessions in this game.
TJ Rives:
Jeff, anything else? Move along?
Jeff Naidu:
Yeah, I agree. It’s an odd bet to bet, Tulane, first half, team total. Look, South Florida plays slow. Every game they play seems like it’s in the 50s. So, yeah, I don’t have much in this one. I wouldn’t have any interest and, he’s right, the only thing that South Florida does do well on a monochrome is play defense. So, yeah, I don’t have any interest in this one.
TJ Rives:
All right. Jonathan watching says, “What do we think about Wyoming covering against New Mexico?” They were impressive, San Jose State’s bad. They were impressive, they covered against San Jose State on the weekend easily. They’re laying six against another bad team in New Mexico. Richard Pitino’s first year honeymoon is over in Albuquerque, that’s for sure. What about it boys? Anything?
Jeff Naidu:
Interestingly enough, it was a close game the first time, these two teams. A very high scoring 93-91 in Laramie. Yeah, many people know I like Wyoming a lot. They’ve seemingly been able to [inaudible 00:40:27] the road and take care of some business, just [inaudible 00:40:36] San Jose over the weekend. I don’t think San Jose’s as bad as New Mexico but I don’t want to step in front of Wyoming, I think they’re really good on both ends, very good offensively. I would maybe look towards some team total here, I could see that because New Mexico is going to play fast. There’s going to be a certain pace about this game. I guess I would lean Wyoming, more towards a team total I’d have some interest in because their offense is efficient and I think it’s going to be sped up a little bit here.
TJ Rives:
Mid Major Matt, any thoughts here on this one? Wyoming laying the five and a half?
Matt Joseph:
Wyoming’s team total was on my list, too. Since this morning, it’s already gone up two points. It was 77 and a half, it’s now 79 and a half. We’re getting a little high because it is a road game. Wyoming is really efficient, New Mexico doesn’t play any defense but I feel like it’s almost a little too high right now. But yeah, if there was anything I would play, it’s something Wyoming related as opposed to New Mexico. Wyoming’s just a machine right now.
TJ Rives:
Mike watching says, “Buffalo laying the five with Bowling Green,” going back at the MAC. He says, “Thanks for the show.” All right. Any thoughts boys, either one of you?
Jeff Naidu:
Real quick then I’ll talk about that. Overbrook is not where Villanova is. Villanova is in Ardmore, okay? It’s not in the city. Overbrook is in the city, it’s not in Overbrook. Overbrook is where Wilt Chamberlain went to school, that’s in the city. Look, if you don’t live in this area, you don’t know anything about this area, you don’t really understand, I get it. A lot of people don’t get what Villanova is. I have a real issue with this. I hate Villanova and I can’t stand people that try to tell me about why do I hate Villanova? Because they suck, that’s why. I don’t like Villanova. I respect Villanova, I don’t like them.
Matt Joseph:
I don’t respect Villanova, I don’t even do that.
Jeff Naidu:
I respect their winning recently. I do like Jay, he’s an easy guy to root for but other players are-
TJ Rives:
We’ll talk to disrespect winning national championships, anything else?
Jeff Naidu:
The players are pompity clowns, it’s just that simple. I just don’t like them.
TJ Rives:
They win a lot, they do win a lot. All right, back to Buffalo and Bowling Green. Any thoughts? Buffalo laying five?
Jeff Naidu:
Lean over. Every game Bowling Green plays in seems like it’s 85, 80. I think Buffalo could probably get to 90 here, just that simple.
TJ Rives:
Jeff or Matt?
Matt Joseph:
First half over potentially. Both these teams are in the three hundreds in first half defense and they’re both pretty good offensively. So, if you wanted to, it’s a more manageable number, play the first half over and hope the scoring continues.
TJ Rives:
Holden watching us says, “Big Ten game, Wisconsin-Indiana. Both of them need it, Wisconsin was awful. Give Rutgers some credit but Wisconsin was awful on Saturday afternoon in the second half of that game and blew it at home.” Indiana has begun to flounder a bit here. What about that matchup? Holden says both teams need this game, any thoughts from either of you?
Jeff Naidu:
Yeah, I’d lean with Wisconsin. Indiana has floundered, as you said, that was a great word-
TJ Rives:
Yeah,
Jeff Naidu:
… lost three in a row.
TJ Rives:
Mm-hmm (affirmative).
Jeff Naidu:
It’s interesting what happens when Rob Phinisee doesn’t drop 30 or some random person. Yeah, I don’t know. I’ve also heard that there’s some things going on with the program inside. What went on the other day with that missing practice stuff where people were held out of games? It’s just a lot going on with Indiana right now. I wouldn’t want to be betting in with Indiana knowing that kind of stuff. So, Indiana’s not some team I’d be looking to bet right now at all.
TJ Rives:
Matt, anything on that or move along?
Matt Joseph:
Move along. If I need to sleep tonight maybe I’ll put this game on and it’ll make me fall asleep a whole lot easier.
TJ Rives:
The Big Ten [inaudible 00:44:06] game tonight is Wisconsin-Indiana. All right, at the risk of being accused of being biased by bringing it up first, we’ll save it for the end here. Memphis and Cincinnati. My Tigers off of a humongous win, arguably the biggest win of Penny Hardaway’s coaching career winning at top five, Houston, this past weekend. Will there be a letdown? This is a makeup game, I see the Big Man nodding. This is a makeup game on the schedule because of weather back a week and a half ago. So, this is a game now being made up on a Tuesday night in Cincinnati before Memphis goes to play at SMU. So, it turns out, three road games in a row for the Tigers with this one tonight. They are the road favorite. Thoughts here, guys, on this situation?
Jeff Naidu:
I love Cincinnati. I think Matt would probably agree. By the way, listen to this quote coming out of Memphis after the game the other night. Is this a joke? This can’t be a real quote that someone said that plays for the team. A win they’ll remember for their entire career. Come on, are we serious with this? What a joke. They didn’t win the national title, they won a game at Houston.
TJ Rives:
I will say this. They wanted a place where they had not lost in 37 games. Houston beat them in the final seconds including on a half-court shot a year ago and paraded around on it when they did it. I can understand where a player that’s playing on Memphis’ team that played last year would say something like that when Houston has lorded over this conference in the regular season, especially. I can understand that, I’d buy that.
Jeff Naidu:
I don’t know. I think it’s kind of lame but I hear you. You’re a fan, so I get it. No, but it’s nice, good for them. I think Memphis is solid with DeAndre Williams back but this is an all-time low spot and this is a tough team to beat. Wes Miller’s a great coach, you know Cincinnati is going to be rocking tonight, that’s a great arena in its own right. We know Memphis, the same issues arise, though, per usual. Turnovers, free throws, stuff in games like this that are close, on the road in a letdown you can’t have. I think Cincinnati is in a pretty damn good spot tonight. Look, the truth is, Cincinnati is not a great team, they’re a solid team though and I think this number tells you all you need to know. I think Cinci wins the basketball game at home against a Memphis team that I just think has a major letdown on the room.
TJ Rives:
Is it a letdown brewing tonight, Matt, for this matchup? Tigers and Bearcats?
Matt Joseph:
There’s a lot of teams I wish this game was against because, yeah, Memphis is still probably reading their headlines, the guys are probably checking their NBA draft status, where they are in the mock drafts and everything after a win like that. But Cincinnati, I love Wes Miller, that’s a great hire. I wish Wes Miller would go somewhere, I wish he would have gone to Temple, I wish he would have gone somewhere else. I love Wes Miller but losing to Tulsa and giving up 83 points, that’s probably the reason why you like Cincinnati because they’re going to be more focused.
Matt Joseph:
No one gives 83 points up to Tulsa, Tulsa is a bad basketball team. So, you’re going to get a focused effort from Cincinnati tonight. The question is, can they score enough points? They can’t let this game be a track meet because they’re not going to win a track meet for the most part. So, if they can slow it down, make this game ugly, keep the fans around then I think Cincinnati can win this game. But if it’s 35, 30 at halftime, that’s not a game Cincinnati can win tonight.
TJ Rives:
And Memphis did win the earlier matchup, what? 87-82, I believe, both teams in the 80s. The Tigers have won five in a row and let’s see what happens tonight. They moved up, by the way, 13 spots in the NET ranking by virtue of that win over Houston. They’re still probably on the periphery, they got to win a couple more important games to be considered at large, to have any hope at large. Probably still got to win the American Conference tournament, I would say. Let’s see what happens with Memphis and Cincinnati tonight. All right, let’s take a look at what the guys are officially on. There are four games, two of them in the MAC, two of them in the SEC.
TJ Rives:
Matt is on a team total with Toledo, he has an over and another MAC game. And meanwhile, Jeff’s got a little SEC in him tonight, laying seven and a half with Arkansas on the road at Missouri and Tennessee on the money line with Kentucky. Boys, any final thoughts before we are done here for a Tuesday? Anything else?
Jeff Naidu:
Well, no. Look at-
TJ Rives:
Any game that we didn’t touch on? I know San Diego State is in action tonight with Utah State out west. Any other game that we didn’t touch on that you might be interested in before we’re gone?
Jeff Naidu:
No, I think we’re pretty much good. I think that the card’s not huge tonight. I think it’s, obviously, a little bit better tomorrow, there’s a lot more games. But no, I think we pretty much talked about it. I’m happy and excited, looking forward to some of these games tonight. And yes, Chad, I did say that I thought it was lame that a kid claimed that it was the greatest win he’s ever had. That’s lame and Penny Hardaway is a bad coach. Teej, you agree with that, right? You’re a Memphis fan, right?
TJ Rives:
Look, I’m standing up more for Penny because they’ve gotten it together here. I thought they were dead in the water after the home loss to SMU and he went off on the media. His team has responded, part of his point was with Williams and Nolley back, they are healthier, they’re a different team and, so far, that’s proven out to be correct. Now, they lay an egg tonight, then people are coming right back at Penny Hardaway in this game. So, let’s see what they look like tonight because they’ve played better basketball the last few weeks. The one thing they did, to your free throw shooting point that was the luck factor, anomaly or whatever, they made 18 out of 19 from the line against Houston. They missed the first free throw of the game and then made 18 in a row in them and made eight of them the last minute and a half. They’re not a good free throw shooting team, so maybe that unravels tonight, too. We’ll see.
Jeff Naidu:
Hey, TJ.
TJ Rives:
We’ll see.
Jeff Naidu:
You better get your stuff straight. Paulie Walnuts isn’t happy with you in the chat. You don’t want Paulie Walnuts pissed off at you, that’s not [inaudible 00:49:57].
TJ Rives:
I don’t usually pay attention to the chat. Is he questioning basketball analysis, my fashion…
Jeff Naidu:
No, no, no, no. He’s asking you-
TJ Rives:
… my lack of hair? What is he questioning today?
Jeff Naidu:
No, he’s asking why his questions get skipped. I was making a Sopranos reference there but-
TJ Rives:
I get that. Yeah, I know who that is. What is Paulie’s question that we skipped? What earth shattering thing does he want to know today-
Jeff Naidu:
Wow.
TJ Rives:
… that we can’t leave with until we know? What is it?
Jeff Naidu:
I didn’t even honestly see his question, honestly. I don’t see any-
TJ Rives:
So, it’s so unremarkable you don’t even know what the question is? Okay, fine.
Jeff Naidu:
No, no, no.
TJ Rives:
Paulie, tune into the show tomorrow, ask a question, we’ll do our best to get to you. How does that sound?
Jeff Naidu:
Oh, here we go. High Point-Longwood, that was his question.
TJ Rives:
I don’t know that I could have finished the rest of my day without knowing the play on the High Point-Longwood game. You guys want to give him something? You guys want to give him something?
Jeff Naidu:
I will, I will, I’ll give him something. Longwood is off a loss. They finally lost a divisional game or conference game, lost in North Carolina A&T over the weekend. But Longwood, have no fear, they’re still a very good team. They got a little home at home against High Point. Let me tell you something about High Point, they’re a tough team as well. Tubby Smith’s a solid coach. I don’t like these home at home games. I had this one at first to 65 wins, I’d lean under, I think it’s a lower scoring game but I don’t have much. I don’t think you can go wrong with betting on Longwood, they’re a solid team, good against a number. It should be a decent game down in the Big South but, yes, I thought it would be a little bit more earth shattering than Longwood-High Point.
TJ Rives:
Very good. Matt, anything else before we’re gone, before we get out of here? Are we good?
Matt Joseph:
I’ll throw one thing in here, watch the status of Hendricksen and Placer for North Florida. Liberty’s a healthy favorite tonight, they’ve never won at North Florida. If one or both those guys are back, I think the Ospreys are worth a look tonight as the home dog, Liberty has struggled with it. Now, they did stay down in Florida, they didn’t fly back to Virginia so that’ll help them out here. But just something to watch out for if Hendricksen and Placer a playing tonight because, then, the Ospreys become a live dog at home.
TJ Rives:
Good enough. Boys, good luck with all of the plays. We thank everybody for watching us and finding us. We’re here weekdays, 1:00 Eastern time all the way through March and all the way through all the madness that is upcoming with BetUS and the college basketball coverage. For the Big Man on campus, Jeff Naidu, for Mid Major Matt, I’m TJ Rives. Boys, thank you and we thank you for watching. And don’t forget to check out our sportsbook website.
Jeff Naidu:
Thank you.
