Jeff Nadu:
There’s nothing more aggravating, because it just seems like when they’re not making any shots, the other team can’t miss. So yeah, if you had average Arizona State last night, that one’s going to hurt for a long time, it really is. Those are ones where… And what sucks about some of these games when you bet them like this one, it’s late at night, you’re going to stew about it for a while. And this is why I’ve said before, it’s going to take an absolutely incredible woman to deal with me. Because again, I’ve said many times, like Corrado Soprano, I’m married to the game. And at the end of the day, I don’t think our thing and this thing mixes. So for me, I need the right woman to say, you know what, get the hell over it, come to bed, and that’s that. I haven’t been able to meet that. But last night, if I had Arizona State, I’d have been sitting in this office for an hour or two, and she’d have been wondering, where the hell is he?
TJ Reeves:
Yeah, exactly. And there were a lot of people probably that were wondering the same thing, because again, we can’t emphasize enough that UCLA, they could have pulled the ball back out and basically run the clock out. But whoever it was on the rebound, immediately went in for the dunk and now Arizona State’s going the other way in the final 30 seconds, still covering, with the ball, strip and a dunk, and now they’re not covering anymore. Now UCLA’s covering.
Jeff Nadu:
But you know, it’s interesting though. They still had, what, about 35 seconds? They had that opportunity.
TJ Reeves:
Get a shot.
Jeff Nadu:
To make.
TJ Reeves:
Right.
Jeff Nadu:
[inaudible 00:06:23] shot.
TJ Reeves:
Right.
Jeff Nadu:
And they weren’t able to get it. But yeah, those, again, they’re going to stick in your craw man, that, they hurt.
TJ Reeves:
Okay. So that, we put it to bed. That’s in the past. Now we look ahead to Tuesday. First though, let’s take a look at our records coming into this Tuesday card and what we have. You see the big man on campus, up at the top there on the leader board, Kyle Hunter had a couple of wins. The last time that he was on with us, up above 500 as well. We’re up above 500 for this season heading towards the month of March. And that’s going to lead us into some games that we’re ready to discuss for this evening.
TJ Reeves:
Let’s start with the Southeastern Conference game. Talk about a team that could not make shots. Arkansas escaped on Saturday against Tennessee, just brick after brick, even at home in Fayetteville. Now they’re on the road in a game with the Florida Gators. Florida fresh off of an upset over Auburn on Saturday at home, right back in the O’Connell Center. The exact tech arena, as it’s known in Gainesville, about 90 miles from where I am. Pick’em line, 135 and a half is the total. Big man, we are back to you for a thought and an official play here on this game to start us off.
Jeff Nadu:
All right. So let me exhale here. Listen guys, I’m going with Florida, and look, you guys know I’ve been carrying the water for Arkansas for a long time. I’m not jumping off the wagon, but in this game I am, okay. I’m going to go against them. I think this is a bad spot for them. I really do. And as a gamble, you have to be able to recognize when and where things work and when they don’t work. Do I love Arkansas? Sure I do. Do I hate Florida? Yeah I do. But at the end of the day, I think Florida gets the job done here at home. This team is just significantly better at home than they are on the road. And this is a gigantic game for a team that I think is actually pretty talented. I don’t like Mike White. I don’t like the kind of spot that they’re in, but I feel like Colin Castleton’s playing at a high level.
Jeff Nadu:
I just feel like this spot at home is one to grab them in. You look at Arkansas, coming off that really ugly win against Tennessee. Let’s just be honest. If Tennessee hits some shots, that game’s probably a whole lot different. You look at on the road. They have to go, again, on the road here to a tough opportunity, in a tough spot. They also have Kentucky looking ahead over the weekend, tough sandwich spot here, if you’re Arkansas, I look at Florida and I just say to myself, these two teams are very similar. There’s not a lot of wiggle room in this game. We’ve seen this number, one and a half for Arkansas come down a little bit. I think sharp money, when we look at this, is backing Florida. I know in my heart of hearts, I could just not go into this game and play Arkansas.
Jeff Nadu:
I have to be willing to switch it up. This is a stone cold, Florida spot, and I’m going to give them one last shot. And if they lose tonight, I’m going to say, you know what, Arkansas, I know, I like them. It’s just for me a spot play. I have to play it. Florida takes care of the basketball, they don’t necessarily turn it over. They’ve been good, hitting the glass. They’re good at the free throw line, they’re pretty good offensively. Just turn the temp up a little bit tonight. I think they get it done here at home. I’m going to take Florida in a pick. I’m in a spot that I really don’t want to do, but I have to do it as a gambler. Florida wins again.
TJ Reeves:
Okay. You talked yesterday about take the emotion out of it, the anti, so the that’s what you’re doing in this case. Kyle Hunter, any thoughts here on this, if no official play hogs at Gators?
Kyle Hunter:
Yeah, I followed Jeff and we’ve done this show here for a good while. I was surprised Jeff had Florida in this one. As Jeff even said himself, he was kind of surprised to be taking Florida in this spot. Just a Musselman versus White match up, scares me. It definitely scares me for sure. I’m sure it does Jeff as well. You could argue it’s a bad spot for either team, to be honest. Some people would say, well, Florida’s coming off that massive win. The reason that Florida really does need this is their resume is really not very good. They lost to Texas Southern. They had that bad loss to Ole Miss. And Castleton makes this team much better, especially defensively, than what they were without him. They played quite a few games without him.
Kyle Hunter:
Florida does need to avoid those turnovers. They’ve been a bit inconsistent. Some games, really low turnover percentage and then a few games they’ve been pretty high. Arkansas’s great at turning those turnovers into easy layups and transition. They’re 22nd and points per possession on quick steals. And Florida is really good at second chance conversion. So we’re going to see if Arkansas can get on the defensive glass or if Florida’s going to get second chance points in this one. I have to stay away from this game. I like Arkansas too much as a team. I like Musselman as a coach. I’m going to pass and root for Jeff on this one. He’s right. This is definitely a tough card today. And I’m going to pass on this one. Just root for Jeff to win here.
TJ Reeves:
Again in that game on Saturday, Castleton, the seven footer for Florida. How about this line? 19 points, eight rebounds three blocks, two steals. Appleby, the guard made five, three pointers, scored 26 for the game. They need those two guys to show up large because, again, Arkansas is battle tested, proven. Huge game for Florida in that Arkansas is a top 25 net ranking team. So it’s a chance to get another quad one win for Florida after they got one against Auburn. They all only have two quad one wins on the season. And the official play will go to Jeff Nadu on this one, and he is on, somewhat reluctantly. You heard it in his voice.
TJ Reeves:
He’s on the Florida Gators.and the game on the BetUS line, as we’re doing the live show at one Eastern time, is a pick’em game. Right now that may fluctuate a little bit later on. And guys give us some advice, Jeff and Kyle, whenever you have a line that could be a one, either a favorite or a dog, the moneyline, et cetera, assess that. Because you’ve both talked about that a little bit before, but give me some thought on that. If a player is looking to play this, if a gambler’s looking to play this a little later, and it’s Florida minus one, is the advice go ahead and just take the moneyline and the better payout at this point?
Jeff Nadu:
I think you have to just… If you like the favorite and you’re… It’s a one point number. I would take the moneyline. I kind of stop with the moneylines once it gets up above, let’s say two. It really depends. It really depends where you are in your betting career, if you have a good bankroll. I don’t really buy points or any of that stuff, that’s not really my thing. I just try to shop around and find the best price. As far as getting points though, I know Mid Major Matt mentioned yesterday, taking Seattle on the moneyline. I’m not one of these people that… Let’s say I like a team at plus two and a half. I’m not going to compound it to me and take a moneyline play as well.
Jeff Nadu:
Because I like one bet. I don’t want to have to fight on breaking even where maybe it falls one or two and I win or win one and lose one. And I don’t want to compound it where, if I’d had did that last night, I’d have lost twice instead of just once. So I’m not… I know Ian Cameron does that too. I don’t do that personally. I don’t care if I’m getting plus one, I’m going to take the plus one. I’m not going to, just to get five, 10 cents more, take a moneyline. Because at the end of the day, you could have a situation like that Marquette Creighton game on Sunday, where that ended plus… They hit a three point at the buzzer and lost by one. You get away with a push if you have one instead of taking a moneyline, you would’ve lost.
TJ Reeves:
Right.
Jeff Nadu:
So, I’m always, if I’m getting points, I’m always going to take the points. I don’t care if it’s plus one, whatever, I’m taking the points regardless. Because I’ll just take them in my back pocket.
TJ Reeves:
Kyle, you’re the thought on that? Obviously I should state it better. If it is a one point favorite, you might as well take the moneyline because if they’re going to win, they got to win by at least one. So we get that. But Kyle, give me your thought and strategy. Maybe if you’re a one point underdog or a two point underdog versus the moneyline, in one of those situations.
Kyle Hunter:
Yeah. So in basketball I take the points, I would take the plus two, I would take the plus one and a half. I was going to give the example that Jeff did as well, that Creighton game was, they banked in three. It was one and a half point spread. People who laid the one and a half were pretty upset there. The people who had the moneyline, they were fine with that. When I’m laying points with the team, I wouldn’t take the moneyline past minus one and a half. I don’t like to take minus 135 for something like that on the moneyline. It’s just too big of a loss. And we know that, over the long term, you’re trying to grind away profits, hit 55% or something like that. So I don’t want to take minus 140, minus 135. But at minus one, minus one and a half, I’m taking the moneyline. At plus two, plus one and a half, I’m taking the plus points.
Jeff Nadu:
You know, it’s funny, real quick. Just if I could say one other thing on Arkansas, Florida. It is so interesting how, when we look at the true numbers, let’s say efficiencies and things like that, these teams are strikingly similar. There is not a lot of wiggle room here. To me the only wiggle room is the spot. Right? You’re getting a home team, it’s the SEC. I’ve made money on this. But when we really look at the numbers, there is not a lot of wiggle room between these two teams. Do I think Arkansas’s a bit better defensively? Yeah, but I also have the home atmosphere for Florida, a huge game, a quad one game. So this is going to be a great game. I’m just hoping I’m on the right side. And I’m not going to be mad if Arkansas wins, they’re my squad. It only will help my future on them. So I think it’s okay. This is spot out. Listen, if I were down money this year, I’d not be betting this, but I am. So.
TJ Reeves:
All right. Fair enough. So there’s the official play again on the screen. He’s got Florida in a pick’em situation and that line may move later in the day to one side or the other game. Number two, it’s an Atlantic 10 game. It is Rhode Island and St. Bonaventure, which has gotten a couple of important wins as the ATN season is unfolded here in February. The Bonnies lay nine in this one, 133 is our total. There is some line movement in this. Kyle Hunter, let’s bring you in here, real quick, for a thought, if no official play, because I know there’s some line movement, but let’s discuss this game a little more in the Atlantic 10 with St. Bonaventure as the home team. What about it?
Kyle Hunter:
Yeah. As far as me, for this game, I would have wanted to bet St. Bonaventure here, but I’m totally priced out at minus nine. Minus nine is such a huge number. The Bonnies are finally looking like the team we thought they would be in the preseason. This is one of those old questions. Is it recency bias or not, to look at the rec games here? I hear people talk about recency biases. It’s always a bad thing. I don’t think it’s always a bad thing, because if a team has so much talent, veteran talent, we know they have that upside. They don’t play like it for a couple months and once they’re playing like it in February, what does it matter to me that they played bad in December? I don’t care. It doesn’t matter to me. I want to know what they’re playing like right now.
Kyle Hunter:
St. Bonaventure’s playing really well. Initially when I saw this game last night, I thought, wow, that looks like a game I’d want to take, St. Bonaventure. I saw the number, I was, oh man, this is… I can’t lay this many points. Rhode Island has major turnover problems. The Bonnies have been turning teams over pretty good and getting out and transition on those. To me, this is a St. Bonnie spot that I would’ve wanted to bet, but maybe it seems like the train’s kind of passed, because there was value on them for a couple games. They blew teams out. Now the odds makers are onto the fact that, here’s that team that was supposed to be really good, and they’re actually showing up. So I have to pass on this game.
TJ Reeves:
All right. St. Bonaventure has won five straight games, three in a row at home. Big men, again, I don’t think there’s an official play here, because of the line movement. But what is your thought on them hosting Rhode Island?
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah. This seems like two teams going in opposite directions, quite honestly. As you said, guys, Bonnie’s won five in a row. They’ve covered all five, including three, as double digit favorites, 12 and a half, 11 and a half and 14. Covered all of them. Now they’re only laying nine here against Rhode Island. The problem is, this number was better, seven and a half, even eight, were out there. And I feel like, as Kyle eloquently said, bookmakers are catching up to this team. Okay. And that’s the problem, because when we look at Rhode Island, look, they’ve lost a lot of games recently, but you look at the scores. Everyone is within 10, most of them. They don’t get blown out much. They keep games in the fifties and sixties and keep it closed.
Jeff Nadu:
Do I think they’re very good? No, I think defensive they’re solid, but offensively, they can’t score. They turn a ball over too much. Don’t make free throws, the guard plays not good. They’re on the road here, which is concerning. You look at something kind of interesting about the Bonnies, since the start of 2017, 35 and 25 against a spread at home. That means if you’ve bet every home game at St. Bonaventure’s in against the spread for a hundred dollars, you’re up about $750 over the course of that period. So, in just one team, in one situation, that’s a very good return. This has been a good team. And it, again, seems like they’re going one way. But I just kind of look back to Bonnie and just kind of say to myself, it just seems like anytime we start to believe in them, that’s where they kind of do you in.
Jeff Nadu:
I feel like five games is enough, but let’s remember, okay, the last five games have come against Duquesne, UMass, Fordham and St. Louis home at home. You beat them the one time, it just seems that you were kind of downtrodden. It was tough. But all in all, they played a lot of bad teams here. You might get a story, kind of a good effort from Rhode Island to keep this game. Kind of like that Syracuse… Or not Syracuse, Carolina Louisville last night, 78, 63. I could see that in this game. I ultimately stayed away from it. It’s a fascinating game to think about though.
TJ Reeves:
All right. Dominick Welch has been hot for St. Bonaventure. They’ve got a couple of other talented players, but Welch had 21 in the game against Fordham. Two games ago, had 23 in their win over UMass. Again, lesser competition. Let’s see if that means anything tonight night against Rhode Island. No official play from the guys here, but St. Bonaventure seems to be, at least, their lean right now at minus, not at minus nine, but maybe a little lower number, if that number was to come down. They have won five in a row at the time. Right now, they’re nine and four, as I look in Atlantic 10 play, that has them in the four spot, with only a couple of weeks left here. Only a couple of games left in the Atlantic 10 schedule before their tournament begins.
TJ Reeves:
All right, let’s get to a game that our handicaps are on. It’s in the big 12. It is the Texas Tech Red Raiders. How many times have they come up huge as of late, including winning in Austin, Texas on Saturday. Revenge spot for Texas at home, in Austin, for Chris beard against his old team. Didn’t matter. Texas tech won the game. Now they come back a few nights later and they host Oklahoma laying 10 points. The number at 130 and Kyle Hunter, you’re going to start us off with that official play on this one. What do you like?
Kyle Hunter:
Yeah, I’m going to take the under in this one, Texas Tech, fantastic showing there against Texas, the other game. Starting to wonder if Texas is actually even very good, but Texas Tech is certainly a good team. Really well coached team. Chris Beard will get things together at Texas. But right now, Texas Tech is the better team. Texas Tech ranks second in the country in defensive efficiency. Really fantastic at defending inside the three point line. Their one relative weakness is defending the long shot. Oklahoma shoots 30.1% from three point range in the big 12. They shot really well in the first game between these two. Umoja Gibson, eight for 11, from three point range in the first game. If you look at the season averages, really unlikely Oklahoma’s going to shoot as well as they did from three point range again here, especially at Texas Tech. Oklahoma on their end, 52nd in defensive efficiency.
Kyle Hunter:
So a solid defense. They’ve slowed their pays down by more than a possession inside the big 12. So this is a team that toyed with playing a little bit quicker. Now we know Porter Moser’s teams usually play slowly. They’re back to playing slowly. I expect them to do their best to make this a slow paced contest. The first game is just 64 possessions, so they did slow it down there. First game was 70 to 55. [inaudible 00:22:29] thinks that game should have been 57, 55 Texas Tech, which is really interesting. I’m going to take the under in this one. I think 130 is a bit too high, given that Texas Tech’s defense is second in the country, behind only San Diego State. And Oklahoma, they’re not going to shoot as well as they did from three point range again. Texas Tech, probably playing from the lead here. I would expect them to slow the game down at the end as well with the lead. I think 130 is a fair number here to take the under.
TJ Reeves:
All right, big man, a thought on this one with the Red Raider looking good at the top of the big 12, battling up there with Baylor and with Kansas. Any thoughts if no official play here?
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah, this is an interesting game. You know, you look at some of the particulars here, Texas Tech, truly one of the best teams in the country, against the spread, 19 and eight on the season. The only problem is they’ve only been a double digit favorite once in Big 10 play. They won the game 82, 69 against TCU as 10 and [inaudible 00:23:27] point favorites. Similar spot, difference here though, is you have a team at Oklahoma, another team kind of on the bubble. They are directly on the bubble. This would be a huge game in going to what they do. This kind of has the feel to me of Houston, Memphis, TJ, that game that we talked about. Memphis kind of put their all into it, we’re able to find a way to win. Sound like you’re not getting Texas Tech off a huge win.
Jeff Nadu:
They beat Texas yet again, didn’t have McCullar in that game. Not going to have him tonight. I think the way Kyle’s going to it though makes a lot of sense. I think the biggest concern that is going to derail the Texas Tech team this year, is the fact that this team can’t shoot the basketball real well. They are really hard to watch shooting the basketball. If they can’t get into the teeth of the defense, they can struggle to score at times. I feel like this is one of those kind of low tempoed games, kind of played in the sixties. I like it. I think, as he said, the shock quality kind of saw it as a different game the first time. I couldn’t agree more. I don’t think Oklahoma’s going to make 13 from 28. From three.
Jeff Nadu:
That’s just not going to happen. Neither one of these teams shoots well. They both struggle to kind of not turn the ball over. I’ll tell you right now. If I had to play this game, I would take a shot with Okie here. I think this is a one last stand kind of game for them. Is it of one of those revenge games for Texas Tech? Sure. But sometimes a team just kind of has your number, and let’s remember, this is an Oklahoma team that finds ways to score. You just have to be kind of impressed with them. They’ve been really good offensively this year. Gibson’s been kind of that last stand kind of guy, and look, Texas Tech hasn’t laid these kind of numbers much. So if you’re going to give me 10, 10 and a half, gun to my head, I would lean Oklahoma.
TJ Reeves:
Sooners are 45 in the net ranking. They are three and seven in quad one. They need a game like this. This would be an enormous road game to get the committee’s attention in this match up. So let’s see what happens in the big 12 showdown. Kyle is saying, there’s going to be lots of defense and points are going to be hard to come by. So he is on the under, officially, tonight in this one, the under 130 for Red Raiders and Sooners in the big 12. Reminder, as you watch along with us live in the One Eastern time hour, we’re here Monday through Friday, One Eastern time on the BetUS College Basketball show. Spread the word, hit the like button, hit the subscribe button. Subscribe here to the channel. Also hit the bell. Share this out. More and more of you have been doing that, more and more are finding us as the audience continues to trend upward.
TJ Reeves:
And it’s only going to get crazier in the month of March. We’re right here for you live. And again, I know a lot of people do see us later in the afternoon, later in the early evening, before making the college basketball picks. If you’re here live, we’ll take advantage of this here in a few minutes, we’ve got live questions and answers that come your way. So if you can get in here at One Eastern time, you’ll be able to get some of those asked and perhaps some of those answered as well.
TJ Reeves:
One more game on the official plays here. If you saw kind of a theme about defense for Kyle Hunter in the Oklahoma, Texas Tech game, it’s going to continue right here with the next one, a Mountain West game. And that is San Diego State and Boise State. A game that I think had 17 points, a touchdown and a couple of field goals. The first time they played. Now they’re playing in a rematch in Boise. The line is two, Boise State favored by two. Look at that total, 119 and a half. An important game for both of these teams in the Mountain West. Kyle Hunter,. I think I know where you’re headed. Do I know where you’re headed? I think I do.
Kyle Hunter:
Yeah. Jeff needed a minute there, when he was talking about Florida a little bit ago. I need just a second here to take a deep breath before I suggest the under. It’s such a low number guys. I really don’t like doing this. I’ll be honest. This was a really tough slate to find a couple plays on. This is one that… I took this last night at a better number. Usually these low numbers get bet up, if anything. But everybody knows San Diego State and Boise State are defensive juggernauts, and they’ve played many really low scoring games against each other. So here we are at an even lower number. This is a tough one, but I do think it’s going to be a really low scoring game. You look at the first game, it was 42 to 37. The final score, not the halftime score.
Kyle Hunter:
The final score was 42 to 37. Shock Quality thinks that game should have been higher scoring. It should have been 94 points total, instead of 79 points total. So we’re way below the actual total in this game, even. And San Diego state ranks first in the nation in defensive efficiency. You guys know everybody who’s watched San Diego State games, they’ve tried really hard on defense. That’s a team that plays great team defense. They’re very athletic. They really bother the opposition a lot. This Boise State team, that’s not been that great on defense in the past. They’re 11th in defensive efficiency this year, playing much slower than they did last year. In fact, six possessions per game slower, in Mountain West Conference games, than they did just a year ago. I can’t tell you how important that is to a total, if you’re playing six possessions per game slower. That makes a massive difference.
Kyle Hunter:
San Diego State’s half court offense, major problem, major problem. The only way the Aztecs really can score consistently is get out and transition. So they want to get a steal, and get out there and score quickly, because they know they’re in trouble in the half court. Boise State’s defense, easily the best in transition defense in Mountain West, it’s not even close. So I don’t think San Diego State’s going to get those easy runout points that they do get against a lot of teams. And when they get in the half court, they really are in trouble against most teams, let alone Boise, who’s a really good defensive team. Two teams also who are very good playing against each other late in the season, have been very good to under betters. At the end of the season… I’m a big totals guy, at the end of the season, a game between two teams who are bad, good for the over, a game between two teams who are good, that have a lot to play for, good for the under.
Kyle Hunter:
The odds makers have set this number low, but I still don’t think it’s quite low enough. And like I said, this one, if it falls 120 or 119, I’m going to be upset, since this line did move, but I wanted to have a couple plays here on the show today. And I do think that this could be a 60 to 50 type game, a 58 to 52 type game. It wouldn’t surprise me at all. The concern, obviously, when you get a low total like this, is if there’s any kind of foul fest at the end of the game, this one is in trouble. We get 20 points in the last minute, you’re going to hear me on Thursday, bring this one up, is one that I had to vent about that… I might be up late tonight if that happens, like Jeff was talking about with the Arizona State one yesterday. So hopefully that doesn’t happen here. I’ll take the under.
TJ Reeves:
All right, big man, a thought here on this. It’s a very important game. San Diego State currently leads the Mountain West. They have a couple of games in hand on Boise state, but if Boise State is able to get the win here tonight, it greatly helps them. They’re jocking for position in the Mountain West Conference standings. It was an ugly first game offensively. Any thoughts here on the rematch?
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah. So one thing that I, and I don’t use it much for handicapping purposes, I’m just always fascinated by some of these long regimes that teams had. And we look at San Diego State, okay. Really, since, let’s just say around 2010. Right? They’ve had this defense first, offense is kind of secondary. We want to be good on the defense event, whether it was Steve Fisher, whether it was Brian Dutcher, this team has been the same team. We know what they are. They want to play every game in the high fifties, low sixties. It’s dogged defense. They might have one or two really good offensive players, whether it’s like Jamaal Franklin or Kawhi Leonard, or whoever. You look at since 2010, this is kind of crazy. Now again, only use this for kind of factual purposes.
Jeff Nadu:
If you bet every under in San Diego State games from 2010 till now, 205 and 159. That means every game, you’d be up almost 30 units of profit. In fact, over 30 units of profit. This team has been a money under team. It’s that simple. In fact, they’re one of the best under teams in the entire country, since that time. Now I know, people are going to say, who cares about that? Well there is some sort of validity to it, because again, these have been the same types of teams over the years, they haven’t had one regime and then another will come in and they’re totally different. They have been the same team. We know what they are. That sort of kind of standpoint you have to look at. They’ve been one of the best under teams this season in college basketball, they have a true least stifling defense, the best in the country.
Jeff Nadu:
In my opinion. You can also throwing the fact that on offense, they just don’t have a ton of shop makers. And I don’t know, long term, how they scored in this game, because I feel like if you’re Boise State, the blueprint’s there. They want to go through Matt Bradley, maybe Lamont Butler, and they have long wings on the perimeter of Boise. And I don’t know quite honestly, who on Boise scores. I guess if I’m asked about who I think wins, I think, gun to my head, I lean Boise, just because I think Shaver’s the guy that, I think, at the end of the day, is going to make the shot that they need to make. But I think this a tough game, you obviously look at the number, it’s 118, 119. That means 60, 61, 60, you lose, 61, 69, you lose. That’s crazy, but it truly could be.
TJ Reeves:
It was a first game where neither team got to 50 points.
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah.
TJ Reeves:
And that’s the reason why the odds makers maybe, lowering that, even more concern out that.
Jeff Nadu:
But you and I both know, the teams combined for only 16 free throws. They were both 21% and 31% from three and neither was above 32% from the field. It’s just one of those outliers. However… Look, also keep this in mind, TJ, this is crazy. Over the first 10 minutes of the second half, San Diego State scored one total point, and were the final 10 minutes, Boise State only scored seven points. Over the first 10 minutes of the game San Diego State only scored nine. So you’re not going to have, I think, those long stretches where teams don’t score, this is truly a heinous basketball game, quite honestly. With one and a half minutes to go guys, it was 37/35. Think about that. Crazy.
TJ Reeves:
Seal it and launch it into the sun. I agree. It was not.
Jeff Nadu:
But if you’re asking me, do I think the game goes over? No, I wouldn’t be betting it over. But I think there’s some tough games here. I think Kyle and I really had to grab and try to find value. Sometimes, what I say [inaudible 00:33:58] No, these are our opinions, I can get where they could be problematic and people don’t want to bet these, but you got to jump in sometimes with both feet.
TJ Reeves:
And again, I may have misspoke. It is Boise State with a game in hand, in the lost column. They are 12 and two in the Mountain West conference standings, San Diego State is nine and three. So they have played two less games at the moment. So San Diego State will be busier at the end of the season here with makeup games. But if Boise state wins this, that puts them in great shape to be the number one seat at the Mountain West tournament. That’ll put them at 13 and two, with only a couple of games left in the Mountain West. So that one will be on CBS sports network. That is a seven, mountain time, nine, Eastern time, game tonight. And Kyle hunters says low scoring.
Jeff Nadu:
Let me.
TJ Reeves:
How low can you go? Lock him in there on the under. Go ahead, big man.
Jeff Nadu:
TJ, you’re one that… You kind of appreciate kind of building programs and things like that. We have to obviously talk. I know we don’t talk about it as much anymore because Kawhi Leonard’s long gone from San Diego State, but you just kind of look at what they’ve been able to do over the last decade or so as a program. That’s not a basketball city. It’s way easier to go out and sit on the beach or walk in a park or something than go to a basketball game. But I heard stories that, when Steve Fisher first took over at San Diego State, they had to really take a chance on him. He had some things that went on at Michigan that, I don’t think people, were real interested in getting involved with. I heard at one point he was out literally handing tickets away to go to the games. You look at now, it’s one of the best home court advantages.
TJ Reeves:
Yep.
Jeff Nadu:
In the country, they’re sold at every game. If you ever get the opportunity guys, to go to some games, go to Viejas, I’ve been there. It is terrific. One of the great atmospheres, it’s a beautiful campus. It’s a beautiful city. I think you can make the case. It’s one of the most, I think we know most beautiful cities in America, so good for them for building that program and that athletic program, the football program’s done well also good for them.
TJ Reeves:
And they’ve played some NCAA tournament regionals at the Viejas Center, as it’s now known, the on campus building there at San Diego State. We’ll see. So Kyle’s on the under tonight for that Mountain West match up coming this evening in Boise. And let’s see if Boise State, which at one point had a 14 game wind streak snapped a couple of weeks ago by Wyoming. They’re still the top team in the Mountain West. We’ll see what happens from there. All right, let’s see what the fans are saying on the chat. Some Q and A time. Let’s get to that here, while we have a few moments. Mike is watching us live here in the one Eastern time hour, and Mike says, “Hey, thoughts on Buffalo? They seem to be rolling, but they’re on the road at Miami, Ohio laying five. Either one of you with an opinion here, if no official play on that one in the MEAC?” Nothing immediately. [inaudible 00:36:45]
Jeff Nadu:
Again, I’m not… I’m just going to keep saying it, I’m not running to bet on road teams. I’m just not. It’s a really tough time right now teams are… Everything’s more important. Do I hate… Do I mind the spot? No. Buffalo is in revenge. They were terrible defensively in the first game against Miami O. Gave up 91 points. You look at the way they played recent… They haven’t lost since January 28th, almost a calendar month. This team is rounding into form. They’re hitting their stride. And that’s what you want. This is a team of Miami O that just really couldn’t miss in that first game. You got to give them a lot of credit. They played really well. They took 24 free throws and they were terrific. But at the end of the day, I think Buffalo bounces back here. I wouldn’t have any problem laying it with them, but I’m not real inclined right now to lay points in the road. Would I do it with Buffalo? I don’t know, probably, especially in revenge.
TJ Reeves:
They are laying five and a half. Kyle, any thought there or you just want to move on?
Kyle Hunter:
I’ll lean to the over? Nothing on the side there. I think this game’s probably high scoring again, the total is set 155, 155 and a half, but I would still lean to the over.
TJ Reeves:
A 10 game. Mark wants to know about is Richmond and George Washington. “We saw Richmond get wiped out in the second half at Virginia Commonwealth on Friday night. Now they play GW. This one on the GW campus, Richmond laying seven. Any thoughts guys?”
Jeff Nadu:
If you want to lay… If you’re comfortable right now, laying seven with Richmond. Go ahead. GW sucks, but Richmond, I think kind of continued these chronic, same problems every year. They’re not a very good defensive team. They never have been under Mooney, but they just seem to lack that kind of toughness. And that might be wrong to say, but it just seems like that. They seem a little soft to me. They’ve struggled away from home. Particularly recently. This is a team that got blown out the night, as we know, struggled with George Mason, lost at St. Louis. This team just is kind of weak mentally, I feel. I’m not running to bet against… Bet on Richmond right now. Even if it’s GW. Two games that these questions are being asked, just dreadful. Get the questions up folks. Come on. This isn’t good.
TJ Reeves:
All right. I got one in a minute. Kyle, anything there? Or you want to move along
Kyle Hunter:
On paper, Richmond should cover this game. The way they’ve been playing, I don’t want to lay the points here with Richmond. I’m not excited to bet George Washington either though. So I am total pass.
TJ Reeves:
All right. Fair enough on that. All right. I’ll interject one that I’m interested in Villanova and UConn. UConn is the slight home favorite here. Villanova again, trying to hang on up at the top of the Big East to the number one seat. I think UConn could not only be dangerous tonight, but dangerous in the Big East tournament, as well as kind of an underdog team. It’s rare that you get Villanova as an underdog here as they are. Guys, any thoughts on this one tonight at UConn?
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah. If I have to give an opinion, I’m going to lean UConn. I’m looking at the home team here. That simple. Villanova kind of been rolling. I’ve said before though, I think this conference is really tough. I think we can kind of just come to an agreement here, guys that, Villanova was probably the best team in the Big East. Is UConn the second? I think they probably are. They’re very talented. They’re very good defensively.
Jeff Nadu:
This is the fourth best two point defense in America. We don’t give them enough credit. It’s hard to bet against Villanova though, because you look for some of the… In these kind of games, the kind of the side things, the free throws, that sort of thing. Nobody better in the country at free throws than Villanova. 83%. They don’t turn it over. They’re just tough to bet against, but UConn, a great home court atmosphere. This is down the nitty gritty in the big east. 14 and three against 10 and five. It’s not completely over yet. This is a big game for UConn. So, gun to my head, I take UConn, but I’m not betting it.
TJ Reeves:
Just looking here, they did get four against Providence midweek, last week won the game outright. I’m looking how many other times you’ve gotten them as a underdog. They were four and a half point underdogs, Villanova at Marquette, lost the game. Did not cover, lost by 10. And I’m looking here to see if there is another one that’s an example in the Big East. Don’t see another one right now at the moment that is relevant. At least recently, Villanova did win about 10 days ago, by 11 at home at the Pavilion for Villanova. This one will be in Hartford tonight. Now on the store’s campus should be a rowdy atmosphere for Uconn. Kyle. Any thought here, you want to move on again to other games.
Kyle Hunter:
So Nova was catching four against Providence, and now they’re catching two and a half here. So I think that’s an interesting marketplace thought, because Providence is not as good as people think they are. You guys probably talked about Providence yesterday.
TJ Reeves:
We did.
Kyle Hunter:
But Providence is definitely overrated at this point. They keep pulling these games out. They can’t win every game the way they’re winning these games. I kind of hope they do for a little bit, because at some point, whether it be in the big dance or whatever in the conference tournament, they’re going to be a great bet against. Cooley’s a good coach, but they’re not that good. Nova’s definitely better than Providence. And I think UConn’s better than Providence too. The line here with tell you they’re not, but I don’t like betting against Nova. I really respect Wright as a coach. My numbers suggest the under in this one, but Nova can get in some higher scoring games against teams that are similar to them, because Villanova plays slowly, but they’re very efficient on offense. So I would tend to want to bet Villanova, but I don’t think this is enough points.
TJ Reeves:
All right, good enough. Somebody’s asking about Yale and Dartmouth. It is D Er, whoever D Er is, is asking about Yale and Dartmouth. “Any thoughts on an Ivy league Tuesday night game, guys? There you go. There’s your answer. D Er.
Kyle Hunter:
Ivy league. I’m out. I’m out.
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah, I’m good.
TJ Reeves:
You’re out on the Ivy league, nothing on that one for this evening. Do we have time for one or two more? I think we do. Mario says, “Kent State game guys, do they cover against Akron?” I know big man, you were talking up Kent State yesterday on the show. What about this one for tonight in the MEAC? It wasn’t an official play, but you have any lean or any thought?
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah, we kind of talked about this with Bonnie’s. Are the odds makers catching up a little bit to Kent State? Kind of seems like it. I want case… Case state. I want ball…. I’m getting confused. Casey. Kent State.
TJ Reeves:
Yeah. And he’s got the wrong game. Mario is saying here, if I have this right. That it’s Akron and actually Akron has Bowling Green. So I don’t know which game he means.
Jeff Nadu:
I got nothing on.
TJ Reeves:
Kent state is laying eight and a half with Ball State at home. So you were right, bringing that up.
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah.
TJ Reeves:
And Kent State’s been scoring a bunch as of late, just talk about them again, one more time, real quick.
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah. I definitely kind of… I don’t think I’m going to get off the wagon here. I’m going to keep betting Kent State. I’m kind of wondering though, are they getting to the point where they’re kind of losing value here? I like them as like a small dog, small favorite, any kind of dog, frankly, small favorite. But Bal State’s not terrible, they’re not the Western Michigan, Central Michigan group. I think maybe, we’re kind of losing some value. Remember, the first game these two teams played, Ball State, it was a close game 66/65. That was, I think, obviously a totally different Ball State team in that a totally different Kent State team. I think you just kind of keep [inaudible 00:44:27] at Kent State. But I’ll continue to say this guys, this is a very tough card. I don’t have a ton of opinion outside of what we talked about. And I hate to not give opinions on every game, but I just don’t really like much here.
TJ Reeves:
Kyle, and again, I’ll clarify, because Mario did have in his question, the “and.” He was asking about both games, Akron at home with Bowling Green is also a favorite. Do you have a thought on either one of those games or do you want to move on off the MEAC?
Kyle Hunter:
So I want to bet Kent State, I echo Jeff’s thoughts on this one. I like Kent State as a team. They’re very good defensively. They’ve rounded into form really nicely. There’s still a team that has a high upside. We’re laying eight and a half points instead of the, probably four or five that we would’ve been laying a couple weeks ago. So it’s tough to bet that, because you’re getting such a less value. As far as Bowling Green and Akron, this is a game between two teams, I have to say, as a totals guy, one team’s an over team, the other, team’s an under team.
Kyle Hunter:
Bowling Green, straight over team. Akron’s a big under team. So we have a pace war, and that’s when Bowling Green wants to run. Akron wants to play slowly. I tend to not want to bet those games too much, unless I really am confident who’s going to control the pace. I don’t really know who’s going to win out on the pace in that game. I think I would probably lay the points with Akron, if I had to bet aside there in that one, maybe even first half Akron, but that’s just a lean for me.
TJ Reeves:
All right. Good enough on that. I’m looking also at UNLV Nevada, Kevin Kruger has become a great story in the month of February with winning some games, and he’s silenced some critics that were out there earlier, that he only got the job because his dad’s Lon Kruger, and had been the UNLV coach. They’ve gotten a couple of big wins. They swept Colorado State and beat them decisively on the weekend. They’re at rival Nevada tonight. Nevada, a short favorite at home. CBS Sports Network will have that one late night as well. I don’t know if you guys have any kind of thought on this. I’m just curious on that game in the Mountain West, and UNLV will have the conference tournament on their home floor, as they always do here. And they appear to be with Bryce Hamilton, the left-handed guard. They appear to be dangerous, a team that could maybe win two or three games in that conference tournament. Any thoughts on the game with Nevada or we’re good on that as well for tonight?
Jeff Nadu:
I lean Nevada, I think they’re the better team, but I’m not running to be UNLV on the road. So lean Nevada.
TJ Reeves:
UNLV does have a couple of big road wins. They did win at Fresno State. They won at Colorado State, it’s conference play though. Let’s see how it goes there. Let’s get to the games that the guys are on officially. Here are the best bets for a Tuesday night. We will see a couple of different plays. Reluctantly, Jeff says Florida in a pick’em situation with Arkansas. That’s a seven Eastern time I’m game. Kyle’s on a couple of unders, including San Diego State and Boise State. Jeff always likes to say, first one too. Is this one first one to 50 tonight wins between Boise state and San Diego state? We will see if that’s the case, but Kyle’s on the under. I get Kyle’s hoping that is the case for tonight. Guys, any final thoughts before we are done here on a Tuesday. I didn’t bring you both in. Are you big on if a team has a timeout late game situation in a tie game, or even down by one that, you just automatically take the timeout and diagram a play? Because I’m not big on that.
TJ Reeves:
I loved what Ohio State did last night down by two. Even with a time out left. The ball’s in the right guy’s hands, you’re at home, call the offense. You work on late game situations all the time in practice, especially later in the year, you work on it all the time, run a play. You don’t have to have a time out. I’m big on that. What are your opinions real quick before we’re gone?
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah, I agree with you there. I think sometimes you got to of just let it happen, let it go. You practice enough. I think you know what you have to do and yeah, I will say one final thought, and I think we obviously put this to bed yesterday, but it is an absolute travesty that, that individual and the Wisconsin coach’s death have got no suspension. That is a joke. It’s a crime. And anyone.
TJ Reeves:
Are you talking about the assistant or are you talking about Greg Gard, the head coach?
Jeff Nadu:
I’m talking about the assistant. Well Gard, for that matter as well, pathetic and disgraceful. Look Juwan is going to get suspended, we all knew that. That Was kind of a foregone conclusion, but what tapes are these people watching? It’s really shameful. It’s always similar to officiating. No one’s ever on the same page. The NCAA is a complete joke of an organization. They’re like the Mafia. I’ve said that for many years, the NCAA should step into some of this stuff and make their presence felt. Unfortunately though, they have no gonads as we know. What a pathetic organization. Sickening, frankly.
TJ Reeves:
Krabbenhoft is the assistant. He’s a former Wisconsin player. In fairness on the other side of this. If they’re trying to sort it out, they don’t know what, if anything, he said. How do you prove that? They know what Juwan Howard did, which is throw a punch. Kyle, any final thoughts on timeout or not, or the Juwan Howard suspension and the fallout from that since we hadn’t really talk about it yet.
Kyle Hunter:
From that standpoint, Juwan Howard had the issue last year with Maryland. I think it was Mark Turgeon, that he got into the shouting match with. Had to kind of be held back. Howard probably better not to do that again. If he does anything like this again.
TJ Reeves:
Oh yeah.
Kyle Hunter:
He’s gone. I think he’s [crosstalk 00:49:39]
TJ Reeves:
I think that’s probably been made clear to him. That’s exactly right. That Michigan’s made it clear to him. That’s it. If there’s anything else like this, can’t have it. Can’t have it. Anything else guys?
Jeff Nadu:
Nope. That’s it.
TJ Reeves:
I think we’re good. Think we’re good for a Tuesday. Good luck on your plays. For Kyle Hunter and for Jeff Nadu, and for all of you watching here, we’ll come back and do this again tomorrow, Wednesday at one Eastern time on the BetUS College Basketball Show. And don’t forget to check out our sportsbook website.
Jeff Nadu:
Thank you.
