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College Basketball Picks, Predictions & Best NCAA Basketball Betting Odds [Friday, Feb 17th]

Corby:

Welcome to the BetUS College Basketball Show. This is a little different. We’re a little late. We apologize. But, TJ is having some internet issues, so we’re going to hop straight in. We’re here Monday through Friday, 10:00 a.m. Central, 11:00 a.m. Eastern. And, we do this every day. So, I appreciate everybody waiting. I know there’s 50 people in the chat last time I looked waiting through this delay. But, we’re doing what we can. Kyle is here on Fridays with me. Kyle, how’s it going?

Kyle:

Going pretty good. TJ always says he’s merely the somewhat competent host and we’re going to try to two-man this thing and have some conversation back and forth. But, looking forward to it. Big night of college basketball last night. We got some games to talk about for tonight and then there’s a big slate coming on Saturday. That’s for sure.

Corby:

Yeah. So, let’s hop straight into last night. We’re a little behind, so we’re just going to crank out a couple of these important games and then we’ll talk about how we did yesterday and move on to today. But, the first one that catches my eye I have to talk about off the rip is this Gonzaga game. 108 points. You think Gonzaga has any chance at some title futures? [inaudible 00:01:04] 34 to one. How do you feel about Gonzaga’s future in March Madness?

Kyle:

Yeah. I mean, I’ll be honest. I thought it was a decent play before last night and then I watched them last night. Corby, I had the under in that game, so I got absolutely smoked by Gonzaga just making everything in the first half there. But, if Gonzaga plays like that, who’s going to beat them? You know? That was tremendous stuff. I know Loyola not looking great in that game, but Gonzaga had something to prove last night. I like the way they went on the road and played that way. I honestly think that Gonzaga’s very best there last night could beat anybody, obviously. And, this is a wide open tournament. Nobody’s the clear favorite. So, getting something like 30 something to one on Gonzaga, I do think is a good play.

Corby:

Yeah. I think the biggest issue is they struggle versus teams with competent guards and so to see them be able to double team guards last night in [inaudible 00:02:03] game was really impressive. What? They scored 68 points in the first half, mostly on just high pressure at the top of the key. So, an interesting one.

Another one was that Purdue game. Purdue seems to have fallen off. Maybe they’re not as good as some people thought, but [inaudible 00:02:16] we’ve talked about all year. We said they’re far from the number one overall team. So, an interesting spot nevertheless.

Kyle:

Yeah, definitely. Purdue had a terrible second half. There’s the man there. TJ, nice to have you in here.

Corby:

It’s a Friday.

TJ:

To Kyle’s Batman there a moment ago while they center up the shot. I was not going to not be here after the Memphis win last night and all that we have to talk about, so I’m glad that I was able to get back in with all the technical gremlins and stuff. So, we’re good.

Corby:

Nice.

TJ:

And, I think you can see me and hear me, so hallelujah.

Corby:

[inaudible 00:03:03]

Kyle:

[inaudible 00:03:03] BetUS guys were on top of their game.

TJ:

They are on it. Now, here’s the good news. Generally speaking, the audience starts growing right about now anyway, so for a lot of you, you haven’t missed a whole lot. You need to be here earlier at 11:00 a.m. Eastern time. Second of all, if you guys don’t mind, I don’t know what your schedules are. We’re not going to be here til 2:00. We’re not going to be here til 1:00. We’re not going to be here til 12:30. But, we’ll stay here a little while longer and talk about some games because we got started later if Kyle and Corby don’t mind. We’ll make it up to you.

So, with that, I hope if both of you are any good at what you do, you were making fun of me mercilessly while I wasn’t here. That’s what I deserved for that. Were you doing that while I was absent? Was there any…? Any [inaudible 00:03:44] barbs?

Corby:

This is on… This is on public display and gets saved at the end, so we kept it nice and clean [inaudible 00:03:50].

TJ:

So, we should be… Okay. All right. So, we should be able to look at that.

Corby:

[inaudible 00:03:52]

Kyle:

The chat. There were several people in the chat saying TJ had to have partied too hard last night [inaudible 00:03:56].

TJ:

Yeah. Well, let me tell you this. That was nitroglycerin pill special, heart attack special. Memphis found a way to blow a double digit lead, not be able to score at the end and still win the game. All right. So, they’re all right. We have some other things that we’re obviously going to discuss. But, let’s get into the handicapping as quickly as we can because we’ve got people that want to do the handicapping. So, we’ve got some Friday. We’re going to get into some Saturday. Did you guys talk about Gonzaga, by the way, already?

Kyle:

We did.

Corby:

Yeah.

TJ:

All right. The only comment I will add before we get to the Friday handicapping. Does either one of you think that Mark Few was purposely trying to score more points in the first half last night than he scored in the whole game in the loss to Loyola Marymount at Spokane?

Kyle:

100%.

TJ:

Because, they scored 67 in the loss at home and they scored 68 last night and I mean, they were bombing threes and fast breaking at the end of the first half and I took that as he’s trying to score 70 or 75 points in the first half to prove a point. Do you guys buy that? Kyle, do you buy that from last night’s game?

Kyle:

Yeah. I mean, and when Strawther’s playing the way he was last night, man, what a team. Drew Timme had like two points in the first half and they scored 68. I mean, that’s… That’s the best sign for Gonzaga. I think also they wanted to help their net rating.

TJ:

Right.

Kyle:

You know, to try to get a better spot in the bracket and that definitely should have.

TJ:

All right. So, let’s get into it with the games that we have from the handicappers and I think we should be able to all see this and get rolling here on the live show and we will take some Q and A from you folks as well as we do this. So, let’s get into it, gentlemen. Let’s begin this evening on a Friday night. Usually a lighter card. There you see our records. We’re just below 500 on the season, although Corby is above and Kyle is above. So, we look forward to seeing what they have. They do have a couple of official plays for tonight. And, why don’t we go to the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference for game number one on a Friday? This is Canisius and Rider at seven Eastern time with Canisius not having a very good season. Rider is one of the better teams in the conference. They’re laying seven at home. The total is 140 and a half. Kyle, I’m curious. What drew you to this game tonight for the first official play?

Kyle:

You know, there’s a lot of advanced metrics that point out that Canisius has been pretty unlucky this year. Not saying Canisius is a really good team by any means, but I don’t think they’re quite as bad as the final scores would indicate. And, Rider has won quite a few close games. If you look at Rider’s performance at home, they’ve had a lot of really close wins. Haslametrics has their home court performance at 325th out of 363. Canisius on the road is 102nd. We’ve talked about this before and I know I’ve said it plenty of times, but I think it’s worth repeating. If you look at every single conference in college basketball, the best one for road teams has been the MAAC. So, I’m going to back the road team here, Canisius, in this one plus the seven points.

They have a pretty good edge with three point shooting and Canisius takes a lot of threes. So, as long as they’re making some of those threes, I like their chances of staying in this game. I don’t think Rider is this dominant team in the conference that’s going to run away and hide unless Canisius is just missing all their threes. So, I’m going to side with Canisius in this one, thinking seven is too many points.

TJ:

All right. Corby Craig, the Rider team is 11 and three in the conference and Iona also up at the top of the conference is 11 and three in a different game tonight. Interesting about Kyle’s take on the road team and wanting to keep it close. Any thoughts on this one tonight at seven Eastern?

Corby:

Yeah. I’ll keep it short. We’re delayed, so this is Kyle’s spot anyways, but Canisius is a team that I agree their advanced metrics say they’re a lot better than they are. I mean, they’re a lot worse than they are. This is a decent basketball team with decent talent output. If you compare the last game, it’s just a… It’s a tough spot to compare because yes, Rider shot two for 15 from three, but Canisius only hit one free throw in the entire game and that’s not something they’re typically going to do and they lost by two. So, I expect this to be a closer game in most cases, so I would lean towards getting seven points here for sure.

TJ:

All right. Good enough on that. And, again, the official play is Kyle’s. He’ll go for the Golden Griffins on a Friday night of Canisius out of Buffalo, New York to get the seven there in that matchup this evening with Rider. Again, Iona plays Manhattan. This is a neutral floor conference tournament. The Metro Atlantic Athletic tournament in Atlantic City coming in a couple of weeks. But, they’re battling for who’s the top spot, who’s the second seed to get the better draw on a Friday night in the MAAC.

All right. Let’s move on, go to game number two, and it’s also in this league. This is Fairfield and Marist. The Marist Red Foxes at home getting a point and a half. The total is 126 and a half. I don’t know on a Friday show if we’ve ever gone back to back with the MAAC as Mid Major Matt likes to call it. We’re back in the Metro Atlantic. Thoughts, Corby Craig, including an official play? What do you have?

Corby:

Yeah. Fridays on this show started out to be probably the optimal spot to be in college basketball. You might get two, three, four plays from us and now it’s basically just MAAC games. So, slim picking. But, yeah. That’s why we got back to back here. But, I agree with Kyle on the fact that this is a good spot to take away teams. There’s just… These home court advantage splits that books are implying just are too much. These teams are probably bringing in attendance subpar of most high school games. So, I’m not too worried about the home and away splits. They also play very similar strength of schedules, like spots wise. Playing at Marist is pretty much the same as playing at Mount St. Mary’s. So, you’re not getting too much of a disadvantage.

The main thing for me here is Fairfield’s played a lot of really good teams really close. So, they beat Siena. They beat St. Mary’s twice. They played Iona to a really good basketball game. Marist has gotten beat up versus the good teams and competitive or losses versus the bad teams. I just think that Fairfield’s the significantly more talented athletic pool on this floor. Marist has one good post. Somebody says they like the under. I would agree there. 126 does seem like an under. But, I would want 129 to play, which just is never going to come. But, I do lean towards the under and Fairfield to be able to impose some kind of offensive threat. Patrick Gardner is the only good player for Marist, essentially, and I think Fairfield has enough talent output to get it done.

TJ:

All right, Kyle. We hear Corby’s play. Any thought on the total in this game or should people stay away from it again? These teams are all familiar with each other by this time in conference play, especially as we get towards late February.

Kyle:

Yeah. I’d bet the under if I were betting the total in this game. But, I like Corby’s side here. This is one I considered myself as well. Marist is not a good team. There’s really nothing positive to say about them. 346th strength of schedule so far this year and they’re eight and 16. Their home court performance is 330th. Their home court is… It seats 3,000 people, which is one of the smallest in the country for sure. This is going to be very little home court advantage. Fairfield’s the better team. We know Fairfield’s the better team. You’re laying such a short number. Fairfield’s a good defense. Sometimes they struggle with shooting, but not that Marist is going to be a really good shooting team either.

So, consistency-wise, Fairfield’s 20th best in the country, so you kind of know what you’re getting out of them. Marist is 262nd. And, the home court performance, 330th, like I said, from Marist. So, I do like Fairfield quite a bit here in this game, so I think this is a good play.

TJ:

All right. Let’s lock Corby in before we move along. The play again is the road team in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference on a Friday night. That is Fairfield and they are laying a point and a half. Kevin, you can put that stat back up there, that last comment that’s there. He says the Red Foxes, meaning Marist, are oh and four in their last four games as an underdog in this range. Again, that’s our guy Rah Rah that’s always quoting those stats. As long as that’s all from this season, Rah Rah. Again, we keep smacking you. If you’re going back to like 2021 and 2020, that stuff doesn’t fly anymore with teams switching up. So, we’ll see on that one in the Metro Atlantic.

Again, we’re going to come to live questions in a few moments here, including talking some Saturday, and I may even be talking about these guys playing Houston on Sunday without one of their best players, it looks like. We’ll give you an update on that on the Friday BetUS College Basketball Show. Hit that like button as you see on the screen. Hit subscribe. Share it out. We’re going to be here for a little extra time to… Just like soccer. We’re going to play a little extra time. And, I’m the referee. I’m speaking the language of our friends at BetUS and the extra time for the referee could be five minutes, it could be seven minutes. They just kind of make it up. We’ll do a little extra time because we got started a little later today on the program.

All right. One more game and this one in the Mountain West. Suddenly, New Mexico… Is it fair to say circling the drain right now without Jared House, one of their outstanding guards? He’s got a hamstring injury. New Mexico’s been losing games without him. Now they play at San Jose State. San Jose State favored by a point and a half. With House out of the lineup, New Mexico looks lost at times on offense. You’ve still got Jamal Mashburn, Junior and some big guys that can play. What’s going on here? So, a point and a half for San Jose State that they’re laying. The total is 144 and a half. Kyle Hunter, I’m going to come to you. How much trouble is New Mexico in? Because, they were a good at large case a couple of weeks ago but they have lost a bunch recently. They got one of their best players hurt. Thoughts on this game if no official play?

Kyle:

Yeah. I don’t think they’re a good at large case now. I mean, they wouldn’t make it if the tournament started now and Jaelen House is day to day as far as he’s going to be a game time decision here for this game. So, it’s kind of hard to make a large play going into this one, not knowing whether their most important player, I guess you’d say… Mashburn’s probably their most talented player. But, their most important player it seems is going to play.

Having said that, I wouldn’t want to bet New Mexico. I don’t think I want to bet them even if he does play. It’d be his first game back from a long time out. San Jose State’s been playing well. I think they’re a well-coached team. This is a team that was not good at all a couple of years ago. They’ve much improved here over the last couple of years. Tim Miles has been a good coach in general. He gets a lot out of his talent that he has. They’re a team that slows down the pace. I think this is a pace war type of game. New Mexico wants to run. San Jose State wants to slow it down. Usually, San Jose State gets their style of play.

I would lean San Jose State, but I’m not anxious to be laying a point and a half either. So, that’s just a slight lean for me.

TJ:

Corby Craig. And, thank you for the pick up, Kyle Hunter. I need to get my house in order. It is Jaelen House of New Mexico who is injured. Corby, these teams played about two weeks ago and New Mexico beat them by 20 with House in the lineup at home. They’ve now lost four in a row. They were bad against Air Force after House got hurt early in the game. They lost to Air Force. House didn’t play at all against Wyoming in their home game and they got beat by 14. There could be a question. Should this line maybe even be bigger for San Jose State to lay it at home with House not in there? I know Jamal Mashburn, Junior is still averaging 20 a game for New Mexico. What are your thoughts, Corby, real quick on this Mountain West Friday night matchup?

Corby:

Yeah. Jaelen House on their team video wasn’t limping. Take that for what it means. I think that obviously he’s not going to limp in a team video. But, it wouldn’t surprise me if he plays in this game. They need this and Boise next week pretty big. But, the main thing for me here is that I lean towards the under. I was looking at the under. This is a New Mexico team that plays very fast. Without Jaelen House, they’ve slowed down. 68 possessions, 62 possessions. But, the main thing is they’ve slowed down no matter what all year the teams that try to play slow. In this Fresno game, they scored 138 points. 70 possessions with 138 points. San Jose last game, 65 possessions. Air Force, 68. Wyoming, 62. So, we’ve seen them slow down to teams that want to play slow relative.

And, their last San Jose game was at home. Probably one of the biggest home court advantages in the nation, yet 65 possessions with their guy in House. So, I think this plays slower than most cases assume and I would lean towards the under if anything. But, side wise, there’s so many [inaudible 00:16:07]. There’s going to be variants everywhere. If House is out, who knows? If he’s in, who knows? So, I wouldn’t even have an opinion on the side.

TJ:

So, be careful. Be very careful because we’re not going to know maybe even until game time if he’s playing. Even if he warms up, as we keep discussing on the BetUS College Basketball Show. Richard Pitino is one of those too that will put him out there for warm up, let him go warm up some, and then they’re not playing him. By the way, New Mexico. I don’t know. I think they were inside of the top 40 of the net until a couple of weeks ago. They’re now 53. They have three quad one wins, which will help. But, now they have three quad three losses and they have a quad four loss. So, that hurts on the resume. They’re going to have to win some games. They’ve got San Diego State on the schedule at the end of the year here too besides Boise and maybe have to win a game or two on the neutral floor in the conference tournament to get back to having a better at large case, New Mexico. But, they’re at San Jose State for tonight and that matchup.

All right. With that, let’s get to some Q and A. And, again, we’ll spend a few minutes here not only on Friday but some Saturday games as well from the guys here in the Q and A. Let’s begin with Daniel Son. Daniel Son is watching and says, “What about Detroit and Oakland?.” Detroit Mercy tonight getting two. And, particularly he’s interested in the side. You know, you look up and the Oakland Grizzlies, who I think started the year two and eight, they are winning Horizon League games. They are now 10 and seven in the conference. Greg Kampe, their coach, has got that ship turned around. They’re at home tonight. Any thoughts in particular here on Detroit getting two on a Friday night against Oakland, another suburb of Detroit, northern suburb of Detroit? So, kind of a regional rivalry game. Any thoughts guys on this tonight, including the side?

Corby:

I was hoping for the total to be a little lower and bet the over. Basically, just an idea that this team is about to play the most annoying style of basketball to get Davis the record for most points in a career. Pistol Pete. Shoutout Pistol Pete. Geez. This kid has done everything he can. He’s never had a game that he didn’t score double digits and yet he still needs to average 29 a game if they don’t play in any tournaments to beat his record, which is just insane to think about. But, yeah. I think Detroit is probably a fade for the rest of the season and overs are probably a bet. The market’s going to adjust to this. This number’s 152 and a half. So, they’re going to score as many points as they can and they’re going to be as light defensively as they can to get Davis this all time scoring record, in my opinion.

TJ:

Interesting. Kyle Hunter, any thoughts here? I’ll have a thought on the scoring record thing again here in a second. We’ve talked about that before. Any thought here, Kyle Hunter, if no official play on Oakland and Detroit?

Kyle:

Yeah. I’m surprised somebody just bet the under. I mean, this one’s moving on the odds screen right now that it’s 151 and 151 and a half across the board. So, I lean the over. That would be my strongest lean. I’m surprised it’s gone down, especially with Kenpom being 159. So, if somebody likes the under, I wouldn’t want to be that, especially like Corby said, with Davis wants to score a ton of points. And, what else does Detroit have to play for? I mean, so they’re going to want to get that.

Oakland, the line has moved toward them. Surprised it was plus one last night. Now it’s Oakland favored. Oakland would be the side I’d have to take here if I was taking anything in this game.

TJ:

And, again, Corby, I know you didn’t mean this but I’m just clarifying for everybody. Pistol Pete Maravich and LSU in the late sixties and the early seventies did this in three seasons, not four. Antoine Davis is in his fourth season.

Corby:

Yeah.

TJ:

The second factor here as Davis has still not caught him yet is there was no three point shot back in the day.

Corby:

It’s insane.

TJ:

They went back and looked at film. You ready for this? Corby and Kyle may know this too, but for the audience. They’ve gone back and reviewed every game and basically done the best they could to decipher where the shots were coming from from Pistol Pete. He made approximately 300 shots that would be considered three point shots. So, 300 more points for Pistol Pete in three seasons, not four, if he played in the present day with where’s the three point line. Just interesting. So, Davis is going to get accolades for breaking the all time scoring record, which is fine. I’m just kind of like get off my lawn guy on don’t tell me he broke Pistol Pete’s record because he didn’t do it in three years.

Corby:

Yeah. And.

TJ:

He had to do it in three years to break his record. I know you’re not saying that, Corby, and I’m just pointing this out for the fans. Maravich. Go back and see anything you can on YouTube of him. Go watch the documentaries. He was incredible in the SEC, scoring 44 points a game in the SEC.

Corby:

[inaudible 00:20:43]

TJ:

Yeah.

Corby:

Davis still… Davis still has to average 37 a game just to catch him. So, it’s not. It’s not by any means set in stone. But, I think that they’re going to be going for it for sure.

TJ:

All right. We’ll see. All right. Trevor is watching us. Trevor wants to know in that conference, it’s a better game with Cleveland State and Wright State also tonight at seven Eastern time. Wright State is one of the top teams in the conference at 11 and five. Cleveland State at 11 and five. Wright State at nine and seven. Cleveland State is a short one and a half point favorite. The line, what? 148 and a half. Any thought, guys, on the side or the total real quick?

Kyle:

I kind of like Wright State here in this game. Wright State’s been playing a lot better here lately. I believe they lost at home to them. Yeah. They lost at home to Cleveland State. Road revenge is a pretty good angle and Scott Nagy, his teams have done really well at the end of season.

TJ:

Yep.

Kyle:

I kind of filter out coaches in the last month of the year and he’s one of the ones that’s done really good against the spread. I do think Wright State’s peaking again, so that would be my side that I would want.

TJ:

Corby, anything there or you want to move on?

Corby:

Yeah. I think this total leans towards Wright State being able to force their own pressure. High 140s is going to play better to Wright State than Cleveland State, so I tend to agree. Wright State’s the better overall basketball team here.

TJ:

Good enough. Let’s move on to an Ivy Leaguer here for a second. Ryan watching us. He puts one word up with the question mark. Yale? Yale at Penn. Yale is the road favorite by three in Philly tonight against the Penn Quakers. Any thought on that Ivy League game? Total 142 and a half. Anything guys?

Corby:

Yale is hyper efficient. Let’s see. Penn likes to play some pace, so 142 seems probably right. But, Yale’s defense has been pretty good. 75th in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency. I like this Yale team. If I was to pick a side, it would be Yale, but this number seems pretty sharp and I know Kyle and his Ivy League hatred, so I would lean Yale and maybe an over. But, the number seems probably right.

TJ:

We see a couple of more people asking about this. I’ll just add in that Yale has won six straight and they did beat Penn in the six game winning streak at home by seven, for whatever it’s worth. Do you have any use for this Ivy League matchup, Kyle Hunter, or do you want to move on?

Kyle:

Well, I mean, when you say, “Guys, you have any thought on this Ivy League game?,” I usually let Corby talk first on this. But, I don’t really have any strong opinion on this one.

TJ:

All right.

Kyle:

Yale is a very complete team, so I think that would be my lean. But, take it for what it’s worth there.

TJ:

Another question. Let’s see. I’m going to get the name on who’s watching us here with this. Nate says, “Guys, what do you think about Wyoming and the points tonight?.” Wyoming tonight is laying five with Air Force. We mentioned the Air Force win over New Mexico. Wyoming also beat New Mexico. Wyoming at home. It’s been a bad season for Wyoming. Any thoughts on this Mountain West game, guys?

Corby:

So many injuries for Wyoming. That’s the biggest… That’s the biggest issue here. You really don’t know what team is going to come on the floor for Wyoming. Air Force is a team that really doesn’t cover big numbers or they don’t care to cover big numbers. They don’t play that type of basketball. But, I wouldn’t want to back this Wyoming team versus basically anybody at this point. I think they’re going to have, what? Six people that play predominant minutes.

TJ:

Mm-hmm.

Corby:

And, then basically three field guys. So, [inaudible 00:24:00].

TJ:

They’ve had injuries. If I can interject, Corby. And, they’ve kicked a couple guys off the team too.

Corby:

Mm-hmm.

TJ:

At Wyoming. And yet, they still pulled the New Mexico win out and this is a home game for them with Air Force tonight in the Mountain West. Friday night in the Mountain West. We’ll see. Kyle, anything on this real quick before we move on?

Kyle:

Yeah. I mean, five is a lot of points to lay with a Wyoming team in that kind of shape. At the same time, Air Force is far better at home than they are on the road. Their road performance has been really bad. 353rd in the country. So, I would want to lay points with Wyoming but I don’t want to lay five in a game that I think will be low scoring. I think under would be my favorite play.

TJ:

Good stuff here. Again, glad you found us on the BetUS Friday show. Again, I’m making mention. We got a little later start, so even if you’re watching the show later on, understand we may stay here a little longer as long as Kyle and Corby don’t have to bolt. If you do, guys, just let me know. We’ll stay here for a few minutes.

Let’s talk some Saturday. We always love doing this. We always love looking ahead. Kevin is watching in the live chat and Kevin says, “Obviously, Baylor-Kansas. Huge game.” It’s at Kansas. Kansas off the win on Monday against Oklahoma State. Baylor also with a win. Or, Kansas won on Tuesday, I believe. Baylor had the Monday night win in Big 12 play, so they’ve had some time to ramp this up. What do we think on the line here? Kansas is obviously going to be favored at Phog Allen. It’s Saturday afternoon. What do we think on the line? Kansas four, five. What do we think, guys?

Corby:

I think pick em at a neutral. So, however much you think Kansas is worth, probably.

TJ:

Three.

Corby:

I would say three and a half, four.

TJ:

Three, four.

Corby:

And, I think this is a pretty good matchup for Kansas. I have Baylor futures. I have said that Baylor’s probably my favorite team for the price to win the championship, but I think this is a pretty bad matchup for them. Kansas has the bodies to stay in front of most of the guards. Also, Kansas really struggles with just push around postmen and Baylor doesn’t play that kind of basketball. So, at the end of the day, they have the guards to stay in front of them. McCullar has really impressed me defensively. So, I think Kansas is probably the side, but I don’t want to get in front of Baylor by any means. I love this Baylor basketball team.

TJ:

Kyle, any thoughts here on this matchup, including maybe something on a total, where you think the total might be as well? I’m double checking here. Kansas and Baylor. I’m just in my own brain racking. They have not played. Correct, guys? They did play actually.

Corby:

They did play once.

TJ:

And, Baylor beat them. So, this is revenge for Kansas as well. Kyle, thoughts real quick?

Kyle:

I think Kansas minus four is probably the most likely line here. Kenpom has 152 for a total. I think that’s too high, so we’ll see if they put it out that high. The pace in the first game wasn’t terribly fast. I wouldn’t think it’d be that fast here in this game either. I like both Baylor and Kansas. Both teams I’d rather bet on than bet against. Them playing each other… I agree with Corby. I like the Baylor future. At the same time, I think Kansas is a team that could win it all obviously as well. So, probably a game I’ll pass on unless the total’s too high and maybe lean to the under.

TJ:

Gradey Dick has been tremendous recently, including at Oklahoma State. Made every big shot, it seemed like. Kansas now tied with Texas and Baylor. Three way tie at nine and four for the Big 12 lead. Again, that game at Phog Allen at three local time, four Eastern time Saturday.

Jake is watching us. I wanted to talk about this game. Kentucky-Tennessee. Thank you Jake for watching. He brings that one up. Guys, this is Kentucky off of a win at Mississippi State. Tennessee beats the number one team in the country in Alabama. We talked earlier in the week about Tennessee would have a chance for the double. They beat Alabama as the number one team in football in October at home in Knoxville in Neyland Stadium and then next to Neyland Stadium is big Thompson-Boling Arena. They beat Alabama in basketball in February as the number one team.

All right. Now, Tennessee traveling to Kentucky. Revenge for Tennessee after Kentucky won in Knoxville impressively. What is the thought on the line here? Early, early peak. What do we think? Kyle Hunter, any thoughts on this?

Kyle:

Tennessee by three and a half, three, something like that.

TJ:

Really? Road favorite. Okay.

Kyle:

Yeah. I mean, I would think they’d be favored, maybe not by that much. But, Kentucky hasn’t been inspiring of late. I know they beat Mississippi State but they lost to Arkansas at home. Arkansas hasn’t really been playing very well. Kansas beat them by nine. I don’t know why Kentucky was favored in that game. But, this is a Tennessee team that I continue to think is over-valued when it comes to March. Rick Barnes’ ATS record late in the season is really bad. So, whether they can win this game won’t change my opinion of what I think will happen in the NCAA Tournament. That’s all I’ll say about that.

TJ:

Corby Craig, thoughts on Kentucky? A lot of the bracketologists have them either in the first four or out right now. If they get this win, this is a top 10 net win and they will have two wins over Tennessee, who’s way up the chart in the net. Thoughts on Kentucky-Tennessee real quick?

Corby:

Yeah. This show, we were the people who took… I think it was a Friday show. We took Kentucky.

TJ:

Yep.

Corby:

Where we talked about the Kentucky money line like plus 400, 500.

TJ:

Against Tennessee. Yes, we did.

Corby:

[inaudible 00:29:18] And, that number was 11 and a half, 12. I think this play opens up five and a half, six. If it does open up three and a half, I think Tennessee is definitely the side. Tennessee is significantly a better team. I… Listen, I’m the first hater of Tennessee. I don’t like this basketball team at all. But, if you’re getting less than two possessions I think or even like a soft two… So, if you get a four, four and a half, I would still feel good with Tennessee. Tennessee showed in the Alabama game their press, their pressure… They were giving Quinerly headaches and Quinerly is a really good point guard.

TJ:

Yep.

Corby:

So, I don’t know if Kentucky has the pieces to stand up with them for the second time.

TJ:

They guarded the daylights out of Alabama, kind of like the Oklahoma blueprint. Now, will they do the same and frustrate the guards of Kentucky? We’ll see. I know this. There are still some questions about John Calipari and but I mean this is a spot where he usually delivers and here we go again late in the season with a chance to deliver at home against Tennessee. And, they still have another rematch. They got a rematch with Arkansas at Arkansas later on in the year too before we’re done in the regular season and then the tournament’s being played in Nashville. Let’s see what happens with Kentucky and Tennessee.

Let’s see. TJ question on this one. How about BYU and St. Mary’s coming for Saturday night? I know BYU lost last night. St. Mary’s at home. St. Mary’s maintains a 12 and one record right now in the West Coast Conference. Any thoughts on that game? Seven Pacific time, 10 Eastern time Saturday night. Corby or Kyle, anything on St. Mary’s-BYU?

Corby:

I hope St. Mary’s beats the hell out of them. But, my only reason is I really want Gonzaga WTC futures. I would take Gonzaga over St. Mary’s every single day and if I can get a better number with St. Mary’s just continuing to look good, I would take that any time I can.

TJ:

And, again, Gonzaga a game behind at 11 and two and Gonzaga… St. Mary’s did beat Gonzaga head to head as well. Keep that in mind for the number one seed in the tournament. Kyle, any thought on St. Mary’s-BYU for Saturday night?

Kyle:

Yeah. I mean, St. Mary’s last night against San Diego really shut it down too early. Only won by three points after being ahead by 23, 25, something like that. I think St. Mary’s probably takes care of business here. Maybe an under if the total’s high enough. Having said that, I think this sets up pretty well for a Gonzaga play in that last game of the regular season, so hopefully St. Mary’s plays well. I see Gonzaga by three as Kenpom’s current projection.

TJ:

Interesting.

Kyle:

And, three would be too cheap.

TJ:

Let’s go back to Friday. Live questions continuing. We’re sitting here for a few extra minutes because we got started a little late, so thank you. Hang in there. Keep firing in some live questions. Let’s see on who asked it about Dayton. Tyler is watching us. Thank you Tyler. He says, “Dayton laying the seven tonight in A 10 action.” Dayton at Loyola Chicago, who’s had a bad season. Loyola Chicago Ramblers three and 10 in the conference. Dayton at nine and four in conference play. Any thoughts? Total 131 in that one. Any thoughts, guys, on that game tonight?

Kyle:

I mean, for me, I kind of think Dayton has been wildly inconsistent. Holmes is a really good player. Their offense, you never know if they’ll be very good or not. Their defense is very good. I think this will be a low scoring game. Loyola has been pretty unlucky if you look at a lot of the advanced metrics. I think I lean Loyola plus the points and the under would be my two leans in this game.

TJ:

Corby Craig, thoughts on Dayton and Loyola Chicago or do you want to move on?

Corby:

Yeah. The one thing Loyola has is the ability to shoot the deep ball. They have a couple shooters, four shooters within the top 500 in the nation, so I think seven could become a backdoor number pretty quick. And, then one thing. Just… This isn’t this game. I apologize. But, referencing back to the Gonzaga versus St. Mary’s game.

TJ:

Mm-hmm.

Corby:

For some reason, scheduling the Gonzaga-St. Mary’s and then Gonzaga’s next game… They have one more game in the season. Nobody else does. They play Chicago State on March first. I don’t know… I don’t know who set that up, but I could see another 108 [inaudible 00:33:33].

TJ:

Is that…? And, we don’t know. I don’t know this. Is that possibly a makeup game where Chicago State couldn’t get there to play them and they had to stick it on at the end? Is that maybe what it is?

Corby:

I don’t know. But, I know if they lose to St. Mary’s and they have to play Chicago State five days later, they will score 110 in most cases.

TJ:

Yeah. They’ll try to run it up on them. I’m looking. Kyle, you may have found it first. Was that a game postponed or canceled from earlier in the year? Or, has that always been there? It looks like it’s always been there. They’re going to play one more game after the WCC regular season finale. Kind of interesting.

Kyle:

The… I’m wondering if they didn’t want to have such a long break.

TJ:

Maybe.

Kyle:

Sometimes teams think that they’re too long of a break going into postseason play. I’m not sure. It’s definitely a weird spot, for sure.

TJ:

We’ve had several people in the live chat. We’ll give credit to who asked first and got… I mean, several people have asked about Iowa State and Kansas State. I’m looking for who asked first. Tooch. Tooch asked first about Iowa State and Kansas State, but several more have asked about that. That is Saturday and I’m looking for… The line will probably… It’s a Kansas State home game. Line will probably be K State short favorite. Guys, thoughts on that one at one local time in Manhattan, Kansas? K State, Iowa State.

Corby:

Yeah. Probably within a possession. Whatever it is, give me K State. Iowa State, not… They’re [inaudible 00:34:53].

TJ:

You’re still hating on Iowa State. You’re still hating on Iowa State on the show.

Corby:

[inaudible 00:34:59]

TJ:

Kyle, anything or you want to move on?

Kyle:

I mean, I think the first game kind of played out to a lot higher scoring than what you would expect. 156 points. This total will be in the 130s somewhere. Probably lean to the over. Thinking Kansas State can push the tempo a bit in a game like this. It’s also kind of a good bounce back spot for Kansas State based on losing their last two to Texas Tech and Oklahoma. We’ve seen road teams not do well in the Big 12 at all, so I think Kansas State’s probably the right side.

TJ:

All right. Miami-Wake Forest. TJ question. That one also tomorrow afternoon at Miami. I know Corby’s going to smile because he’s all over Miami and they’re looking good in the ACC. Quick thoughts. Miami going to be favored by a few, probably. Any quick thought?

Corby:

A very, very good matchup. I’m glad you brought it up. My opinion is pretty weak there because Wake Forest is a team I don’t understand. But, geez. This tempo, this offensive… These are going to be two… This will be a very fun game to watch. I think that the talent output on both sides is pretty equal. Obviously, Miami has a slight edge there. But, coaching. I think this is just going to be… If you like basketball, this is a game you need to tune in to, I think.

TJ:

Kyle, anything on that one? Miami, Wake?

Kyle:

Yeah. Fun matchup. Appleby against Wong. That’s going to be a lot of fun, for sure. I would think over. Let’s see. [inaudible 00:36:19] It’s going to be upper 150s or something like that. Still would lean to the over in a game like that.

TJ:

All right. We need to make mention too. Obviously, the horrific events of this week with the shootings on the Michigan State campus, the death of students and the horror that has gone on there. Michigan State has announced they will get back on the basketball floor. Their game midweek was postponed with Minnesota. They’ll play at Michigan and that is Saturday night on Fox. We don’t know what kind of emotion will they play with there. It’s a rivalry game at Ann Arbor. Michigan desperately needs that. Michigan probably going to be the short favorite at home. Guys, any thoughts on Michigan State? Tom Izzo said, “We need to begin to heal. We need to begin to heal as a campus and get back to some normalcy for this weekend after what’s gone on.” Any thoughts, guys, on Michigan State-Michigan?

Corby:

Michigan is… Michigan’s a tough team. I tend to think that they’re not very good. Scoring 61 on Indiana, 59 on Wisconsin, two teams that are slower paced but you’ve got to be able to score in conference. Michigan State… It’s a tough spot for them obviously with a lot of outside factors, but headed into Michigan, you always know it’s going to be a good game. Hopefully this number gets pushed up a little bit and we get like an under 138. I see 135 is Kenpom’s number but if this is like a 137, 138, I would feel pretty good towards an under there.

TJ:

You’re being kind. Michigan was terrible offensively the last 10 minutes of the Wisconsin game. Any thought here Kyle on them hosting Michigan State with all the emotion obviously for the Spartans?

Kyle:

Yeah. I mean, I’ll be honest. This is a game that I want nothing to do with betting. I just… I don’t know how that plays into this game. Obviously, far more important than sports.

TJ:

Sure.

Kyle:

And, you never know how that’s going to affect a team. Could it rally them? Could it make them play better? Could it make them have a bad performance? I don’t know. So, that’s not something I want to try to handicap.

TJ:

And, one more real quick. These guys, Memphis, my Tigers. Go Tigers, go. At Houston. These are important games for Memphis for their resume at large. They’re at Houston. They’ll finish the regular season at home with Houston. The latest I got is that Kendrick Davis, the star guard, the transfer from SMU who’s Memphis’ best player, hurt his ankle in the first half of the game with UCF last night. He is doubtful to play on Sunday. So, keep an eye on that injury. But, it’s not believed to be so serious that it’s going to keep him out a while. He’s doubtful to play. We’ll see if he plays. And, again, Houston looking at maybe being a number one seed. Memphis swept them by the way in the regular season a year ago at the end of the year, for what it’s worth. Memphis at Houston.

[inaudible 00:38:56] Houston. If Kendrick Davis is ruled out, let’s say in advance, is Houston going to be like a double digit favorite with the Memphis disaster we saw in the second half without him? Is Houston likely double figures? Probably, if Davis is ruled out, hypothetically, guys. Any thought on that? Kyle?

Kyle:

Yeah. I think I would lay doubles with Houston if he’s going to be out in this game. I mean, Houston is a very good team. Memphis scored four points in the last 10:50 of that game. Very, very fortunate to win. And, Lomax is out too for Memphis.

TJ:

Correct.

Kyle:

I assume he’ll still be out in this game. So, that hurts. Yeah. I think this is a lay it spot if he doesn’t play in this one.

TJ:

Corby, I see you nodding along. Same thing on my Tigers. I want to have a cheery Sunday night.

Corby:

Yeah.

TJ:

I want to be upbeat. But, if they get beat down, I’m not going to be so cheery.

Corby:

I don’t know if they can make the number high enough if he’s out. Just a logical number. They can’t make it high enough.

TJ:

Watch it.

Corby:

Obviously, they can toss… They can toss any number. But, yeah.

TJ:

Well, and the other thing is Houston… No matter what, Houston can guard. Houston can guard. So, we’ll see. We’ll see what happens in that one Sunday. All right. Great stuff, guys. Lot of extra stuff for the weekend. Everybody, thank you for hanging in there. Here’s the best NCAAB prop bet for Friday to wrap it up. Thank you for being patient with us. You see Kyle is on a side in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference. You know what? So is Corby. They’re both on a side, both with a road team. One is an underdog, one as a favorite. And, with that, I think we got to get out of here.

Guys, thank you for hanging in there extra time and for starting the show up and getting it rolling. I’m glad that I was able to join in. All good stuff. We’re here Monday through Friday at 11:00 a.m. Eastern time. Corby Craig, have a great weekend. Your Blazers did get the win at UTEP last night.

Corby:

[inaudible 00:40:31]

TJ:

They’re looking good. They looked good last night. Kyle Hunter, I’m not even going to bring up Ohio State. We’re just going to say have a great weekend. I know you’re shaking your head on that. We’ll see what these guys can do with Houston. We’ll be back to talk all about it next week starting on Monday at 11:00 a.m. Eastern time. Kevin and everybody at BetUS, thank you. Rock and roll behind the scenes. Great stuff.  Don’t forget to check out our sportsbook website. We’ll see you next week on the BetUS College Basketball Show.

 

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