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Blazer’s going to knock off FAU, Florida Atlantic. The nation’s longest win streak of 20 games in a row is over courtesy of UAB last night, and you were court side, somewhat well-behaved, for this?
One of those two facts are true, but the Blazer’s got it done. I posted on Twitter, “a hundred bomb incoming” and we almost got there.
Jelly didn’t look a hundred percent. I don’t think that he probably should have played, but the Blazers, I’m telling you, they’re dangerous. Don’t get in front of them.
And they put it on FAU last night. So the nation’s longest win streak…
So I was looking for the next longest winning streak, and I’m trying to figure out who that is, maybe you guys are going to come up with that before I do. But goodbye, the FAU 20-game win streak, those two teams obviously now have split and may see each other again in the conference tournament later in the year.
Also, late night last night, UCLA and USC both won in the PAC 12. BYU Demolishes, Loyola Marymount, who’s actually good. Kyle, I see you nodding along on that. St. Mary’s, also very impressive with San Francisco, but back to BYU for a second, they lost heart breakers to Gonzaga and St. Mary’s late in the game at home. They left no doubt last night with Loyola Marymount, late Thursday.
I thought that was going to be one of the good late games I could watch, and I decided that that was not going to be on any of my TVs when I saw what the score was, TJ.
They jumped all over them by 20 early on in that one and never looked back again. The Mountain West arguably going to get maybe three teams in the NCAA tournament, we’ll see, but some late night basketball there as well.
All right, so we have a Friday slate. It’s not loaded. They’re occasionally going to be prominent, top 25 game here or there. Big East, in this case it’s a Mountain West game for tonight. A lot of it is the Ivy League, a lot of it is the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference. A shout-out to Mid Major Matt the MAAC. It is playing later tonight. The MAAC is also typically playing on Friday sometimes. Two or three games, something like that. So we have some games here and there, Horizon League, et cetera, on the slate. We’ll also look ahead to Saturday. So all that’s forthcoming.
Again, thank you for finding us as we’re live here Monday through Friday, 11:00 AM Eastern Time. Make sure you hit that like button, make sure you’re subscribed. We’re glad you’re with us. We’ll have time for some Q and A in a little bit, including looking ahead to Saturday. Standby for that.
Records first. Here we go on the slate again. A four and one night on Thursday. Kudos also to Mattie Cox getting a couple of outright winners to come home on sides that he had with VMI and ULM, Louisiana Monroe. I was surprised, by the way, speaking of the Horizon League, Oakland beaten at home by Purdue Fort Wayne. Oakland’s been good in the conference in the Horizon League, the northern suburb of Detroit. They were beaten last night, but you see the records: Corbie above 500, Kyle above 500. Let’s keep it up, boys.
Let’s get into it first on a Friday with a game. Speaking of the MAAC, it is Canisius and Niagara tonight, 8:00 Eastern time. It is at Niagara. The line is four, Niagara favored by four. Total, 131 and a half. And it is Kyle Hunter beginning things, but maybe not what we usually think on this handicap. What do we like?
TJ, I thought about this one for a long time. I did consider the under in this game also considered Niagara team total under. I’m a little concerned about two things: I’m concerned this game could go in overtime, it should be a close game. I’m concerned there could be a foul fest late. This Canisius team has had some pretty bad luck this year. We’ve talked about luck factor on Ken Pom before, the 301st in the country. ShotQuality also thinks that they have underachieved by quite a bit, and I think this will be a low-scoring game.
They’re catching four points. You got a Niagara team that’s not very good on offense that plays 354th tempo. It’s hard for them to get margin. I think Canisius plus the points is a good look in this one. It’s not a pretty pick. It’s not something that would be exciting to bet, necessarily. I think this will just be one of those ugly games that stays close throughout.
Canisius actually has been good on the road. Their relative performance on the road is 49th best on Haslametrics. They lost by one point at Toledo, which is definitely a good performance. They lost by three to a pretty good Florida Gulf Coast team that beat USC earlier this year. They also won at Manhattan and St. Peter’s, not great teams by any means, but neither is Niagara. So plus four on Canisius is my look and this one, and what I think will just be a tight game all the way.
Very interesting. Only a what five-win team, but you’re looking at the spot for this one tonight.
Corbie Craig, a thought on this one this evening in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference in Niagara Falls, New York. Niagara hosting Canisius.
I had Canisius as a slight favor here, so four points catching plenty fine here. I really don’t like this Niagara team. Also, Canisius does all the right things to like a road team as Kyle talked about. They’ve been good on the road, but it’s for good reason.
They’ve played a better strength of schedule first off, so I don’t think it’s comparable by any means, but Niagara’s a really small basketball team. As you look through their lineup, 6′ 7″, 6′ 7″ out of two bigs. Canisius will throw a 6′ 10″ guy out there and their second big is 6′ 7″, but they’re also really physical. So they get a ton of rebounds versus these lower. They’re 118th the nation offensive rebounds, but I don’t think that number is even close because who they’ve played relative to who Niagara has played.
I think this rebounding battle is won by Canisius pre handedly and Niagara plays such a slow pace that if Canisius can get second, third chances, I don’t see a way that Niagara scores enough points here. It’s going to be a snoozer. Niagara is probably one of the more boring basketball teams to watch in the entire nation, but I just don’t know how they keep up points if they’re giving up second-chance opportunities.
This is the first of two meetings. These two teams will close the regular season in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference on March the fourth with a game at Canisius.
Kyle Hunter sees something though, despite Canisius his three game losing streak. He sees something tonight. He’s on the side of the Golden Griffins. That would be the nickname of Canisius tonight, laying the four in that matchup.
All right, game number two, the other MAC, the Mid-American Conference. That’s where we’re going to go next with a play on the Akron-Kent State game. Short, one point favorite are the Akron Zips at home. Total 134.
Corbie Craig, you’ve got the official play. What are you interested in this one tonight?
I like the over in this one at 134, and I’ve had a couple people ask, it seems like there’s been just a complete flip of all unders to a significant amount of overs. And it year-over-year has basically happened in conference play just like this, and I think there’s for good reason.
These numbers get pushed down pretty heavy to the idea that conference play’s going to be a more physical, more tough, basketball game, but I don’t think that you factor in as much that these kids… I think the talent level has far exceeded the linear curve that we’re used to, and conference play just doesn’t matter as much. So these numbers are getting pushed down too much, and we can see it in this game.
So last year, Akron versus Kent State, basically the two exact teams, same teams. Akron had Ali Ali, but they played exactly the same. 131 was the line there. This year they get the exact same line when a Kent State team is significantly better. They play significantly faster. The issue here, and the reason I think this number’s so low, is we’ve seen two really good defenses. Kent State, 34th in the nation and adjusted defense. Akron 100th, but they’ve been a pretty good 100th.
The issue is they’ve played a really soft strength of schedule. You’ve seen the hundredth best defense relative to holding Eastern Michigan to 67, and I don’t buy that that’s their actual defensive performance. I think when you see a Kent State, these will be the two best teams that they’ve played in 2023 each of their own. So I think the defense is relative to who they’ve played and it should show. So I have this as 67 possessions, which would put this over 134, a significant amount of time, in my opinion.
Interesting.
We just had a viewer point out he got Kent State at two and a half last night. It’s now down to one.
Kyle Hunter, seven straight wins for Akron. I did not sell this enough. This is the battle for first place in the regular season in the Mid-America Conference. As you know, you’re in that region there in Ohio, they are both eight and one. Xavier Castaneda and Akron hosting Kent State. Thought on this game if no official play, please.
I think first of all, these two teams hate each other. This is a massive rivalry game. This is probably the best game of the night as far as the spread, and how much it means for the season, so definitely a game you want to tune into.
I have this one at 131, I don’t like the under necessarily. That’s just what my projection was. I might have the tempo a bit too slow here. I think Corbie makes some fair points. I had 65 possessions, so we’ll see as far as the tempo in this game. I do think that both teams will be aggressive. There’s tended to be a decent amount of free throws when these teams play, because they have to call it pretty tight or else things can get out of control. So that could help the over as well.
I don’t really have a lean on the total, so I’m going to root for Corbie here. As far as the side, I see people in the chat asking about the side as well. I think it was hard not to take Kent last night at plus two or two and a half. Now it’s one. I think it’s probably getting to about fair when you pick them, because you got to give Akron a decent home-court advantage in a game like this, but Kent is the better team. So my lean would be Kent I guess, but nothing strong in this one. I think this is a fantastic game.
Kent State had been rolling along until Northern Illinois beat them about a week and a half ago. They’ve bounced back, they’ve beaten Buffalo and Central Michigan. They now travel to Akron Friday night, 9:00 Eastern Time. What did I see? ESPN, you will have this game nationally tonight. And Corbie Craig says, “Points, points and more points.” He wants to be over the total of 134 in the Akron-Kent State game for this evening. As you see on the screen, we’ve got one more game to go before your Q and A. Thank you for finding us, live audience being added, hit that like button, subscribe, get the questions ready, and we will talk about one more game for the Friday slate.
Very interesting in the Mountain West. Mountain West has got three conference games on a Friday night. And, again, this is a league, guys, that could very well have four teams, probably will have four teams in the NCA tournament. Boise State is battling to maybe be one of those teams. They will play at San Diego State tonight. San Diego State laying five and a half, our total 134 and a half for this matchup. And the Aztecs are smarting a bit because they were beaten by Nevada earlier in the week. That snapped their modest four-game win streak. San Diego state now tied with Boise State. Again, another battle for first place in the regular season here, early February. Both teams eight and two on a Friday night.
Kyle Hunter, right back to you a thought if no official play on Aztecs and Broncos.
I think it’s justified that San Diego State is favored in this game. I know it was six and a half last night. At that point, I was going to say this seems like quite a few points, because I do think it’ll be a relatively low-scoring game. The tempo in this game will be quick enough that you would think it’d be an over, but both of these defenses are really good. So there could be some efficiency issues.
Boise State ranks among the luckier teams, if you look at a lot of the luck factor things. Having said that, I still think that Boise State is better than some people think. They’re very well coached. I think Rice is a very good coach. This is a team that has been a bit inconsistent at times, but I don’t know that I trust San Diego State to get margin. San Diego State’s offense still doesn’t have a ton of scoring options. We’ve seen them get bogged down.
TJ, I’m still a bit scorned by San Diego State from the end of last year when I bet San Diego State… Was it against, I think, Creighton, where they blew that game in March Madness last year. So, San Diego State, I think, still has question marks on offense. I think they’re great on defense. I think the total is about right. I would lean Boise State if I had to pick a side here.
This is a Bronco’s team, Corbie Craig, that has won eight of its last nine games. The only loss is to New Mexico at New Mexico a couple of weeks ago.
Since then, they’ve beaten Fresno State, Colorado State, Air Force. They’re eight and two. Battle for first place. Again, San Diego State, angry off a loss. Thoughts if no official play, Corbie.
I think we discussed the San Diego State-Nevada game and basically alluded to the same points Kyle made. The issue with the San Diego State team is they have a lot of talent but not a lot of consistency from an offensive standpoint. I really don’t know if it’s a coaching aspect, or if these kids just want to play Isoball. I don’t know. It’s just from watching them, it’s been they’re the far superior team every single game they play.
They were out coached in the Air Force game, they were out coached in the Nevada game, and Boise’s a really talented team. Someone in the chat said that this is a perfectly lined game, essentially a coin flip, and I would completely agree,.I think that San Diego states the more talented team, but Boise State is probably the better coached team.
The issue I have is Matt Bradley is a great basketball player, don’t get me wrong. There’s not many people that can shoot as well as he can, but he has to be in isolation. And at the end of the day, that kills all form of basketball. Just having an isolation player who’s shooting almost 32% of your team’s shots, it’s the same as the Detroit situation. If Matt Bradley has 30, they cover for sure, but how many times does Matt Bradley have 30 against a Boise State defense who’s very capable of shutting him down? So I would lean towards Boise getting to seven. I don’t love the San Diego State team, but I do know some modelers who do, so I respect both ways and I would stay away as far as like…
So I saw the BetUS line earlier was five and a half. Has it even gone up from that since we started doing the live show for Boise?
And again, this is a nighttime, this is actually a 6:00 local time, Pacific time, 9:00 Eastern Time game tonight. Is there line movement here towards Boise a little bit if you’re liking them as the doggie?
Six and a half, Boise.
Interesting. All right, we’ll see about that. Again, no official play on this game, but it’s another game for first place, just like that Kent State-Akron game. It’s another game for first place tonight with San Diego State eight and two, and Boise State eight and two for that matchup tonight.
Also, Fresno State-UNLV tonight, Air Force Nevada tonight. And, guys, just a quick take, you start looking at the net rankings and the other metrics, strength of schedule, that kind of thing. It looks like the Mountain West is probably going to get four. I don’t know that they get five, but out of San Diego State, New Mexico, Nevada, Utah State, this Boise State team, UNLV also probably in that mix. Four teams out of that group’s going to get in. This is going to be a dog fight the next four or five weeks, right?
For sure. I think one thing to note, and we don’t have this, is Air Force is getting 11 and a half at this point. I think you’re close to having some value on Air Force. Nevada’s off of a really big San Diego State, when this Air Force scene in that San Diego State game impressed me.
They kept up, they lost by 10, they kept up for a majority of the game with some foul trouble. The issue is they’re far less talented, so it’s just can they draw up schemes to get past Nevada? But I think 11 and a half, you’re getting close as a dog there.
And Nevada obviously got the big win over San Diego State, and I believe I saw this, it’s the first time ever, ever for Steve Alford now as the new coach there, that they’ve beaten two top 25 teams at home in the same season. They’ve never done that before. They beat New Mexico a couple of weeks ago, and now beat San Diego State. Might be a little letdown spot, maybe late Friday night. That is going to be an 8:00 local time game in Reno, Pacific Time. 11:00 Eastern time, we’ll see on that one.
All right, so I got a little preview question in there on the Q and A, your turn folks, peeps, savages. Let’s go. Get some questions and answers rolling for the guys, not just for Friday but also for some Saturday. We definitely are going to talk Duke and North Carolina in a minute or two, if that’s not the first question right off the bat.
Douglas watching us says, “Hey, what do you think about Yale and Harvard?” He’s interested Ivy League total. Big time rivalry obviously there. I’m looking and double checking on what that total is.
Any thoughts, guys, on the matchup tonight between Yale and Harvard with a total of 132 that Douglass is interested in?
I think Harvard’s defense is probably a bit overvalued. I don’t think they’re as good as the metrics point them out to be. Yale’s been a pretty efficient team, pretty slow team.
So I would say this number is right on the money, but if anything it would lean towards an over. It’s not going to be a high pace by any means, but I do think that the market probably thinks too much of these defenses.
It’s an afternoon game, Kyle Hunter, and Harvard is also playing Brown tomorrow afternoon, not less than… Right at 24 hours later in conference play. And the Ivy League frequently does this on their schedule. They squeeze in a Friday game and a Saturday game every week.
I’m looking, I’m double checking whether Yale is also playing tomorrow, but these are the two most noteworthy programs. Yale’s playing at Dartmouth tomorrow. So, fascinating, they have the big rivalry matchup tonight, and then both of them are playing another opponent 24 hours later.
I think my favorite favorite would be to fade one of them, or both of them, tomorrow night depending on how this game goes. This is an ESPNU televised game, a really big matchup.
The first game between these two was 58, 54. ShotQuality thinks it should have been 66, 64. I think this total is just about right. If anything I would lean to the over. The pace was 67 possessions in that first game, they just didn’t hit shots. It’s hard. I’ve said this before, TJ, the Ivy League is tough to handicap for me. I think it’s the toughest league out there, especially with the scheduling spots that they have. But lean to the over for me, and I think I lean to Yale slightly.
Harvard has lost three of its last five games. They did lose the pin last weekend as well. Let’s see what happened. That’s a 5:00 Eastern time game for Yale and Harvard. We continue with some questions.
Ninja13 watching says “VCU-St. Louis in the Atlantic 10.” I know Mid Major Matt, we referenced him, again, keeps saying this league keeps cannibalizing itself where the better teams keep getting beaten. May only be a one-bid league. St. Louis is in the mix to maybe win the league if not win the tournament. Total is 141. Ninja13 is interested in the total, VCU-St. Louis. Any thoughts, Kyle?
I lean the over as far as the total. I had this 142 and a half, so it’s pretty close to the actual number, but I still think VCU’s defense not quite as good as they’ve been in some of the other years. St. Louis will push the pace VCU likes to run as well.
I think in general that the A10 is a very overrated league. I think that it’s much weaker than it was a few years ago. I don’t think that’s any debate about that. But in general, I think the A10 is down quite a bit. There’s no really good team in this league. There’s several decent teams, but although we could see some close games, it’s hard to imagine more than one team making it here.
St. Louis at home, seven and two in the conference.
Corbie Craig, Virginia Commonwealth is eight and two. So again, these are good conference match ups, regular season battles here for early February. Any thoughts? St. Louis is a short favorite by three, any thought here including the total?
I’m really close to taking it over there. I had it 144 and a half, so if I could get a 140, probably 139 and a half I would take it. As Kyle said, I think VCU’s defense is overrated. They’re they’re 24th in the nation in the adjusted defensive efficiency. I don’t think that’s right, basically, by any means.
I took, this is all said with the grain of salt, I took the VCU Davidson over. Davidson’s best player didn’t play [inaudible 00:20:30]. I think he got sick, and then missed two free throws that would’ve went to overtime, or, no one free throw that would’ve sent it to overtime. Annoying, but on the other side, this is the St. Louis team that I’m just wrong on. I really had this Fordham game on Tuesday circled. I thought I was right. We talked about it on the show. I think it was my bet for the show. It just felt like a great spot for this St. Louis team to bounce and look good.
They were covering 80% of the game and then just fell apart. So if they do that versus VCU team that can press pretty heavily. You could see this game swing really fast. So I don’t want to side by any means, and if St. Louis somehow does suffocate themselves, then this could get ugly pretty quick, and lead to not really a ton of points. So both ways I lean towards probably VCU and then over, but I’d stay away from [inaudible 00:21:15] overall.
All right. Again, St. Louis at home in this matchup is the short favorite here for tonight.
We continue, Andrew is watching us. Thank you, Andrew. He says, “Great show, guys. Could you talk briefly about the Sunbelt and my Ragin’ Cajuns for a minute?” Okay, we’ll do that.
Louisiana, the former Louisiana Lafayette, that’s how they say it in that state, and Marshall Saturday night. This is a 7:00 local time game. We don’t have a line yet. Louisiana nine and two in the conference. Marshall eight and three. Here we go again with another matchup with teams near the top of the conference. Any thoughts?
Corbie Craig, right back to you a thought on Louisiana Lafayette, or ULL, or Louisiana, however you prefer them, and Marshall for Saturday night.
Listen, it’s bad to hold biases in sports betting, but I will say there’s one team that I really hate and it’s Marshall. I bet on them to start the season minus one versus Queens, and they absolute dud versus Queens team that is now absolutely trash. Blew it.
But then since then this Marshall team has been dangerous. They have a lot of really good basketball players. Louisiana is a good team. They looked good in their game verse, what, Texas? The Texas game.
Yes.
No, they didn’t look good. They lost by 30, but that’s the game I [inaudible 00:22:35].
Well, they played Texas and got beat badly. Yes.
And first half they looked pretty decent. They were scoring decently so they had the fourth active win streak in the nation.
TJ, I’m still trying to figure out who’s first. I don’t know. St. Mary’s is second active win streak. I’ve asked the chat twice now. No answer, but I lean towards Marshall [inaudible 00:22:53].
St. Mary… It might be St. Mary’s. You might be right.
They’re second per Ken Pom, but they might still have Florida winning first. I don’t know. I lean towards Marshall. Hate this team. I hope Louisiana wins, but that’s [inaudible 00:23:04].
There’s the analysis on that.
We’ve got a Louisiana team that has won 2, 4, 6, 8, 9 in a row since a loss to Old Dominion. Kyle Hunter, any quick thought, Louisiana-Marshall, including maybe something on the total, what it might be?
I would want to bet an over, but I think I’m probably going to be priced out. It’d probably be like 158 or something really high.
Pace will be there. It’s going to be plenty of running and gunning. I’m impressed with Louisiana having this kind of record this year. I didn’t expect them to be this good. This is a team that has the fourth-longest win streak in the nation at nine. We’ll find who that longest win streak is here at some point.
I’m searching, searching right now.
But I think nice win for them against Texas State, a pretty good team, last night. 82, 63. Texas State, a good defense put up 82 points on them in 64 possessions. Very efficient.
They’ve been shooting the ball well. I still would lean and over, even at a high number, for tomorrow night’s game.
I’m just thinking off the top of my head in the Power Six that includes the Big East, almost everybody has taken a loss within the last couple of weeks that would keep you under a double figure win streak, so I’m not quite sure. It might be St. Mary’s, maybe it’s just not updated there yet with that win over San Francisco last night because I put them at what? 12 in a row. 11 or 12 in a row.
11.
11 in a row for St. Mary’s.
All right, quickly, a couple of them. We did talk about the Air Force-Nevada game briefly. Core1024 had a question about the over at 133. Just a quick play it, don’t play it, stay away? Guys?
Stay away. All Air Force overs.
Kyle, same?
That’s dangerous, that’s for sure. I would lean Air Force, same as what Corbie said. The only issue with Air Force is they’re much better at home than on the road. That’s accounted for in the number for sure.
But I’ll pass, but that’s my lean.
Another one here for, I’m double checking, for Friday is Carlin’s question on UNLV and Fresno.
He is interested on the side in that one. And again, UNLV got off to a great start, had an upset or two at the beginning of the year, and now suddenly they’ve lost some games in the Mountain West. UNLV at home for this matchup tonight. I’m looking for the number in that one is three… Is nine and a half. Nine and a half for UNLV against Fresno State. Thought on that number, Corbie?
What? Fresno beat UNLV recently, I believe. Think this Fresno team’s really a basketball team, but they remind me of Air Force, a more talented Air Force. They’re really slow and they can just pick you apart slowly. I can’t imagine the UNLV loses twice. I think nine’s too many points. I would probably make this six and a half, seven.
You are correct that Fresno State did beat them by seven in the, or 13, I’m sorry, in the matchup. 76, 63 in the previous matchup.
Vegas, Kyle Hunter has won their last three games including beating Colorado State at Colorado State prior to this Friday night. 8:00 Pacific time game on Fox Sports One. Any thought? It’s a lot of points for UNLV to lay.
I think it was even bigger last night. I believe it was 10 and a half and it’s gone down to nine and a half. I did consider taking Fresno here.
Fresno, coming off at really bad performance against Wyoming, pretty inexcusable performance. You would think they’d bounce back. I know UNLV has some injury question marks, too. So I would definitely lean Fresno in what I think would be a relatively low-scoring game to be laying that many points.
All right, to Saturday, TJ question. It is the first time in 44 years that Coach K will not be on the bench for Duke-North Carolina. Well I should say he did take the leave, remember, in the one season. Was that the 95 season? But it’s the first time, officially, that he’s not the head coach when Duke is playing Carolina.
This one @Cameron. Guy’s, thoughts here? Duke got a narrow two point win, had to hang on and beat Wake Forest midweek. North Carolina, beaten by PIT, the last second free throws and then the blocked three pointer at the end of the game for PIT to upset North Carolina. Thought on Carolina-Duke, massive rivalry game. Do we think Duke’s like a two or three point favorite? Maybe more? Thoughts on this, Kyle?
Probably three point favorite, I guess. I don’t know what to think of Carolina anymore. We saw them last year lose a PIT. They lost a PIT again. This is the North Carolina team that should be better than this. I still think they can be. I don’t really want to lay points against them, because I don’t think Duke’s been that consistent. I just don’t know if I’m excited to bet North Carolina either. Probably lean to the over in that game.
Corbie Craig, a thought on Duke and North Carolina?
I have the most boring answer ever for you. I got Duke by 0.7 of a point, so I would lean towards Duke in the slightest of angles. But I will say, just from a matchup standpoint, I do think that Duke matches up fairly well with North Carolina. They’re second in the nation in offensive rebounds because they have size. Does that matter much at all? Because Bacot can basically push anybody out of the lane they want? I’m not sure, but I think that North Carolina relies so much on their bigs that is a very interesting note.
North Carolina’s sixth in the… No, ninth in the nation in points from free throws so they’re getting to the line of ton. Can Duke’s bigs stay in front of Bacot, not foul, and not be swiping too much? In most cases I would say they’re talented enough, yes, but I’m not sure. They haven’t proved anything, so I’m not standing in their way by any means.
Back to the Savages. Another Saturday question is about Missouri and Mississippi State. Chad is watching us. He says, “Guys, thoughts on Missouri at Mississippi State?” Mississippi State off of bonking, South Carolina midweek.
Mizzou’s got a couple of good wins already on the resume as well. Thought, gentlemen?
I think… Is Mississippi State ever going to be able to make a three pointer? If they could make a shot, they’d be pretty tough. 24% in SEC play.
Wow.
I think Missouri is a bit overvalued by some people at this point, but I just don’t know if I want to lay points. It’d probably be minus three, or three and a half, with Mississippi State. I’ll lean that way. Maybe lean an under, but you think Mississippi State has to be making some shots at some point.
Corbie Craig, any quick thought, or you want to move on?
Tolu should be fine. He’s going to be the biggest player on the floor. I really don’t like this Missouri team. We’ve talked about on the show for way too long for them to be 17 and five. I think that they should have lost a lot of games much more recent until I look pretty dumb. But they’re rated fifth in the nation in offense and I’m not buying that by any means.
All right, we go back to Saturday questions here. A couple people got a couple more Saturday questions. Matthew watching us says, “Thoughts on Kansas, Iowa State?”
Iowa State will be at home 11:00 AM local time, fresh off of having blown the 23-point lead to Texas Tech and losing the game in overtime now. Oh, play Kansas now at 11:00 AM at home. Welcome to the Big 12. Matthew wants to know about that game and also TCU and Oklahoma State. First a thought on Kansas, Iowa State. Corbie, what would he think that line is going to be with Jayhawks and Cyclones?
Ken Pom has Kansas as a dog and I will be the first person to hit submit the second it pops up the they’re a dog. I’ve talked about it a million times. I hate this Iowa State team. I hate this Iowa State team. That’s all you need. No analysis. I think Kansas is probably top five best teams in the nation.
Hey look, they’ve got a couple of wins. They beat Baylor at home. They looked good, for what it’s worth, for about 30 minutes hitting the threes and then they unraveled. You’ve got no belief in them?
So in that Texas Tech game, ’cause I was curious, I looked at why they lost. That was insane. Don’t get me wrong, you should never be able to give that kind of comeback, but they also should have never been there. Caleb Grill was eight for 12 from three. That is the reason they were up 23. So I don’t think that…
If you watch Caleb Grill shoot, I don’t think that that is relative speaking to what is actually going to happen, and over a long enough time period, I think Texas Tech wins that game. If you played this game for a hundred minutes, I think Texas Tech wins that game by 15. So I think that that was just a high-shooting start. I am not buying this Iowa State team by any means. Maybe I’m wrong, but I will continue to fade. I think this will be my first day fading. So this was a perfect, let’s start and I’ll be starting till the end of the season, I hope.
Interesting.
Kyle Hunter, 11:00 AM local time, they’ll be stoked. Obviously at the Hilton Coliseum in Ames. Kansas, in there. Kansas impressively avenge their loss to Kansas State earlier in the week. Thought on this matchup with Iowa State early Saturday?
I was looking to see what kind of number we might get. I see Bart Torvik has Iowa State minus two and a half. That would be pretty crazy. I can’t imagine that’ll happen. I think Iowa State… I was pulling this up on ShotQuality. They lost 80 to 77. ShotQuality thinks they should have lost 87 to 73, which kind of goes to Corbie’s point.
They actually made a lot of shots they usually don’t make. They’ve been a bit fortunate this year. This is a Iowa State team that’s massively out talented by Kansas, nobody would disagree with that. They have a great home court advantage, no doubt. I still think Kansas is the top four or five team in the country, so Kansas at plus points would be my play there.
We’re still going over Saturday games for another minute or two before we are gone. Fire one in the live Q and A if you want. I see our live audience continues to grow. You see the games we’ve already played here and we’ll recap those with the handicappers and we’re talking some about Saturday.
The viewer was also asking Matthew about TCU-Oklahoma State. Weather update, meteorological update for the Dallas Fort Worth area. Again, guys, they have been just overwhelmed, besieged, by freezing rain and sleet, wreaking all kinds of havoc in that area. TCU is trying to get out of Fort Worth today somehow, someway to play what is a 1:00 local time game in Stillwater, Oklahoma. Across the Red River, as they like to say, into Oklahoma to go play in Stillwater. All right, so that’s the matchup. TCU did beat West Virginia during what they’re calling “freeze-mageddon” I think in Dallas Fort Worth, earlier in the week.
They played them on Wednesday night and they only had a couple of thousand people there, and most of it were students who were frozen like popsicles, and they were offering the students, Corbie Craig, free food and hot chocolate. If you come on campus and come into the game.
I would be there.
And they beat West Virginia midweek with all that. Now there’s some question as to whether they can get out, and whether that game’s going to remain a Saturday game, might it get moved to Sunday, et cetera. They’re trying to figure that out.
All right, so I said all that. Any thought on what the line might be? Oklahoma State at home. Oklahoma State off a great midweek win at rival OU. Any thought on that, Corbie Craig, on what the line might be?
I think this is the exact same game as the Kansas-Iowa State team. You have literally probably the same line. Ken Pom has Oklahoma State by one, and I think the Oklahoma State, again, just like Iowa State cannot score the basketball to save their life. So, can they…
Well, they did the other night against Oklahoma. They put it on Oklahoma.
You’re talking about an Oklahoma team that just came off the greatest performance they’ve played since the 1900s. They scored 93 on Alabama, so I don’t put too much weight into that Oklahoma State game.
If you’ve watched this Oklahoma State team, listen, I love Avery Anderson. I’ve played basketball with him personally, and I think Avery Anderson’s a great basketball player. The rest of that team cannot shoot a basketball to save their lives. Bryce Thompson’s not bad. I just don’t think the system scores the same as Iowa State, and so TCU, too much to handle in my opinion.
Kyle, any quick thought on that? TCU, if they can get there weather-wise, and Oklahoma State?
TCU is obviously not nearly as good without Miles. TCU, a team that I think their upside’s very high. I’d like to buy futures on them, so in that way I wouldn’t mind if they lost this game so we can get a bit better price on TCU.
I don’t think I have a strong lean on this game, especially given the situation. If they do get out of there, I think it’s probably a good one to pass.
I’m going to rapid fire.
Go ahead, Corbie. Finish up
I got one note towards this Oklahoma State game. Avery Anderson, 11 for 61 from free. Bryce Thompson 39 for 100. That’s their two leading shooters. I don’t think they can score.
Well 39 for one hundreds not horrible. You saw horrible last night from Florida Atlantic. What were they, like eight for 38 from three point range? It was brutal.
39 out of a hundred being your sharp shooter is pretty tough.
Well, that’s true.
All right, let me rapid fire, two or three of them at you here on what you think the line might be.
Miami at Clemson. Clemson off the loss of Boston College. Miami’s been rolling. What might the line be? Not that you have to play it. Kyle, a thought?
Miami-Clemson?
Bobby Clemson.
Is it at Clemson?
Yep. It’s at Clemson, correct.
I’m going to pull up my numbers here really quick.
Probably Clemson. Still favored. Probably Clemson by two.
Two and a half at home.
Something like that.
Do we trust Clemson? I don’t think Clemson is that good.
They’ve won home games though…
Won over home games. Give them that. But Brownell’s teams usually fade at the end of the season. Are we going to see that again? Possibly.
They’re not as good as their record would indicate. I do know that for sure. It’s funny because they’re 18 and five, and Ken Pom has them 70th. Which 70th is probably too low, but 18 and five is also overrated.
It’s also pick a metric because again, you go back to teams they’ve beaten, they’ve beaten Wake Forest, they’ve beaten NC State, who looks good and is near the top of the conference. They’ve beaten Duke, all of those at home. And even recently they’ve won over Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech’s bad, Florida State. Then they lost the game to Boston College. So for whatever it’s worth, I know you’re not a big Clemson guy at all, Corbie, but we’ll see what happens. We’ll see what happens in that one.
Hey, Purdue and Indiana. Purdue probably still going to be like a three or four point favorite Saturday afternoon in Bloomington, maybe more as the number one team in the country at Indiana off the lost of Maryland, midweek?
They deserve more. I think that’ll probably be right, but they deserve more.
I think three is about what it’ll be in that game. Purdue is more consistent. You don’t know exactly what you’re going to get out Indiana. Indiana could look amazing in this game, but I wouldn’t want to bet on it.
Gonzaga, St. Mary’s, by the way, as we mentioned, St. Mary’s 9-0 in the WCC. They beat San Francisco last night. Gonzaga won impressively over Santa Clara. This game, 7:30 local time, 10:30 Eastern time, coming on Saturday night at the University Credit Union Pavilion there on the St. Mary’s campus.
Any quick thought, guys? St. Mary’s probably favored by at least a couple of points in that game.
Too many points. Gonzaga outright. We can clip this on the show after Gonzaga wins. Gonzaga will be a 260, 270 favorite, I mean underdog, and they’re going to win.
I’m holding the Gonzaga 35 to one National Champion ticket right now, and I’m not going to lie, I couldn’t be more happy with it. I think Gonzaga’s probably one of the better teams in the nation.
So it’s not an official best bet, because there’s not a line yet. But Corbie’s saying “Zags! Zags! Zags!” in this matchup. Kyle, any quick thought Gonzaga-St.Mary’s late Saturday?
I hope they do save the clip because if Gonzaga wins outright, hopefully we’ll see that on Saturday because bold call there from Corbie.
I think St. Mary’s is a decent sized favorite. You look at the different places. Ken Pom has five. Haslametrics, has six and a half. I don’t think it’ll be that high, but Gonzaga has so much talent, as far as raw talent, that I think they’re always a tough matchup for St. Mary’s. If they’re catching that many points I do like the Zags.
All right.
A lot of great basketball, not just Friday, but Saturday, and it’s all building to March. We love it. Great job with the questions and answers. Kyle and Corbie, thank you all for your participation. Again, the live audience continues to grow. We’ve seen that in the last 15 or 20 minutes of the show. Find us, hit that like button, subscribe, et cetera. We love all of that.
Best bets, let’s recap Friday. There are two games that the handicappers played and they are Canisius on a side for Kyle, and Corbie with an over in the showdown for first place in the Mid-America Conference. Ken State and Akron battling at the top. He likes the over in that game. There you go. There’s your best bets for a Friday. Anything else? Final thoughts? Corbie Craig, final thought before we’re gone?
Scott H. Says, “No shot. Good luck on Gonzaga.” And I screenshotted that. I hope to bring you back on Monday, so hopefully [inaudible 00:40:29].
No, wait. He’s saying no shot that Gonzaga wins?
Oh, yeah. “No shot’s” pretty strong.
No shot does seem to be strong. Now St. Mary’s has had some success against Gonzaga. That’s not to say with them at home, they aren’t going to be favored, but settle down on the “no shot” thing.
Kyle, any final thoughts?
We hit 200 viewers even on a Friday with the short slate. So, everybody, thanks for tuning in. This was a lot of fun as always, and best of luck this weekend
And again, if you’re seeing us later on Friday, and all the advice, and maybe even watching some of the segments, et cetera, or watching us in whole on Saturday. Live, Monday through Friday, 11:00 AM Eastern Time, that’s how you find us here on the BetUS College Basketball Show. Kyle Hunter, good luck with your play, Corbie Craig, with your play and all the stuff for Saturday.
Thanks to Kevin and everybody behind the scenes at BetUS TV. Have a great weekend. We’ll talk to you next week on the BetUS College Basketball Show.
