College Basketball Picks, Predictions & Best NCAA Basketball Betting Odds [Friday, Jan 13th]

I am the somewhat capable host, TJ Reeves. Our handicappers are Corby Craig and Kyle Hunter. Good to be back with you guys. Corby, we had you earlier in the week. Kyle, you’re back for a second straight day. Lots to get to. Not a tremendous slate, but as we keep saying, there will be occasional Big East, Big 10, etc, games to go along with some of the smaller conferences, the MMAC, the MAAC, the Ivy League that play a lot on Friday night and some others. So we’re ready to go over that with a card.

First, some impressions from Thursday.

Kyle, you’re back for a second straight day. Some thoughts off of Thursday?

Kyle Hunter:

Yeah. Buckeyes losing to Minnesota was a bad beat or bad loss for Ohio State. Ohio State’s not very good defensively and that’s going to be their undoing, but Minnesota winning outright was pretty stunning.

The Iowa win over Michigan, definitely a tough loss for Matt from yesterday’s show. He deserved to get a win there. Michigan led the majority of the game.

Iowa keeps doing this, guys. They lose most of the game, come back and win at the end at home. Still think that team is a little bit fraudulent.

TJ Reeves:

Yeah, it’s an impressive win for them, there’s no doubt, but Corby’s sitting there. I’m sorry, Matty Cox sitting there. What Michigan plus five at the end of regulation and the game goes to OT, and I want to say that Iowa scored the first six or the first eight points of overtime and it ends up being a bad beat. Corby Craig, good to have you back. Sometimes the bad beat taketh away, but sometimes you benefit the same way though too, right?

Corby Craig:

Yeah. We got hooked on a over already this week. I think a 92 point second half, so never fun. But we’re back for a Friday.

TJ Reeves:

Yeah, we’re ready to go over some different games. And again, thank you for finding us. Make sure that you hit the like button. Make sure that you are subscribed here on the Bet US College Basketball Show. We love to get the feedback from the audience. I’m going to even take a look ahead at some Saturday games, some very interesting Saturday action. We don’t have lines as of yet, but the guys may project some of that as well. So thank you for finding us. Hit subscribe, share the show out. That’s going to help us. I keep saying that we were going to hit 3,500 subs by the end of the month, by the end of January. It looks like we can hit it today, so hit subscribe right now. If you’re in the live chatting and you’ve not subscribed to the show, we’ll hit that and then we’ll set a new goal maybe for 4,000 by the end of the month.

And again, we realize the college basketball season ramping up to March for sure. By the way, a quick thought. Did you guys catch the end of Gonzaga and BYU and what a win for Mark Few’s team in the final couple of minutes in a very hostile place to play? I did not realize it. That’s now six straight wins over BYU for Gonzaga, but a great comeback. Strawther hit the big three point shot at the end of the comeback. Guys, did you catch some of that last night out West late in Provo, Utah?

Kyle Hunter:

Yeah, that was a great comeback win. Gonzaga’s pulled this off several times now too on the road. Close wins on the road. I guess from their standpoint it’s nice to be kind of battle tested a bit more.

TJ Reeves:

Yep. And give credit where it’s due because Timme had had a couple of big plays, but I mean they had some other guys making plays. And again, BYU seemingly was making every big time three until the closing moments of that. By the way, late night UCLA did beat Utah, did cover in the Pac-12. Bruin’s still looking good at 5-0 in the Pac-12, and Arizona bounced back off the loss to Washington State. If you’re a little sleepy, you’re just waking up whatever, Arizona did win at Oregon State late night last night in Corvallis by 12. I don’t think that was a [inaudible 00:03:43] though, Kyle. We were talking about that yesterday. Weren’t we talking about a first half total, something like that? Arizona did get the win, but I’m not sure if they got the cover on that one against Oregon State last night on the late night games.

All right, so with that, let’s take a look at the records for the show. We can tell you off the show yesterday, Kyle did hit a couple with the Georgia State team total and also the over in the Youngstown State Detroit game. He had a two and one night. Two and two overall for the show. You see the show right at the 500 mark and let’s get going guys for a Friday. Let’s get underway with some official plays, some games of interest and again the Big 10 will play from time to time on a Friday night. And here we go with Purdue, one of the top teams in the country laying 15 against Nebraska with a total of 132. So this will start the show with the official plays. Corby Craig, what is your thought on a Friday night big 10 matchup?

Kyle Hunter:

Yeah, a couple things. First, a pretty big game to start the conversation. That’s unique for me and Kyle. Second, I like the over here, which is…

TJ Reeves:

Also unusual.

Kyle Hunter:

I think that’s the second over I’ve had on the show for the years. So I think this number’s just too low. This they played earlier in the season and the number was 137 and a half. This number’s too low. What? Nebraska wants to play decent pace. Purdue, I think I’ve talked about this a few times on the show at this point. Purdue forces teams to play faster than they want to. What? Nebraska’s 290 in tempo. But if you let Edey get back down the court, your offensive abilities have shut down significantly. So I like Nebraska’s team to look to run a little bit more than they typically do.

They’ve shown the ability to play defense, which is kind of scary. They stopped Iowa to 66 possessions, which is a really low possession game for an Iowa team. So maybe I’m just completely wrong here, but I had this at 139, which makes sense relative to the last number that was given, 137 and a half I believe, when they played in Nebraska. So we’ll see. But this Purdue team I still think is fraudulent. I don’t think they’re defense is as good as they’re rated. They’re rated 30th in defensive adjusted tempo for efficiency. I don’t think they’re the 30th best defense in the nation. So they’re first in offense and I think we’ll see that plenty here tonight.

TJ Reeves:

All right, interesting that Nebraska got walloped earlier in the week by Illinois at home. Now, oh, goodie in the Big 10 schedule. Go play Purdue at Purdue later in the week. Purdue is favored by 15. Did you contemplate the side at all here, Corby? I know you looked at the total, but did you contemplate the side with Purdue at home?

Corby Craig:

Not really. I think this number’s pretty big. Purdue, I just think it is a little bit more fraudulent than we’re giving them. And it makes sense. But this number is completely downgraded because of the fact that this went to overtime and still only got to 127 last matchup. There’s many factors that that comes down to. I don’t think that that is how this game is played in most cases, and I think that that pushed us down. Purdue shot seven for 29 from three in that game and Nebraska nine for 32. So that game has put a weight on this game I believe, and I don’t think it’s indicative by any means. Nebraska played them to a three point game in overtime last time. So 15 points here. I’m not laying up.

TJ Reeves:

Kyle, I know you do not have an official play, but how do you weigh how Nebraska did in the previous matchup with Purdue recently, versus being wiped out at home by Illinois now having to go on the road and come right back a couple of nights later and play at Purdue?

Kyle Hunter:

Are we sure Corby’s okay? Because he is taking an over in a big name game here. I just want to make sure he is doing all right. Yeah.

TJ Reeves:

I checked his temperature. Yes.

Corby Craig:

I’ve had three really bad, bad beats this week, so maybe I’m not okay, but this popped up so we’re playing it.

Kyle Hunter:

Yeah, my number on this one was 134, so I kind of leaned to the over. I’m not going to bet it, but if I had to, I would bet the over. I think Purdue scores quite a few points in this game. I wouldn’t be shocked if they cover the big number. Purdue is such an efficient offense, number one in offensive efficiency. I think Nebraska’s not quite as good on defense as their numbers look either. So Nebraska’s free throw defense has really helped them out a lot and we know how that is, 62.9% allowed from the free throw line. Free throw wise also produced 75.3%. Edey’s such a mismatch for everybody. Even he shoots 74 and a half percent from the free throw line, which is pretty impressive for a guy 7’4″. Yeah, I think Purdue scores a lot of points here. I’d be tempted to take a Purdue team total over and this one, but yeah, I agree with Corby on this one.

TJ Reeves:

Yeah, and the Boilers were rolling. They had won 13 straight before Rutgers beat them in West Lafayette. Since then, they’ve gone to Ohio State, sorry, Kyle and won and then they’ve come back home and beaten Penn State now a Friday night game with Nebraska. And Corby Craig says over. Not often that he says over. He says lots of points in this one over the total of 132.

Corby Craig:

Points, points, points.

TJ Reeves:

Points, points, points. We love that. So there’s official play number one. Again, if you’re just joining us, make sure that you get some questions and answers ready. You see we only have three official games here that we’re discussing on the slate for a Friday night. We will get to some games for Saturday even though we don’t really have lines, we kind of got some guesstimate. I’m very interested guys in Kentucky and Tennessee, your early Saturday, Saturday and some thoughts from you. So get ready for that in a little bit. Let’s go to game number two that we are interested in for a Friday evening, and this one is St. Peter’s and Quinnipiac. Again, the MAAC plays on a Friday night. Quinnipiac is favored by 10. Our total is 133. And as soon as I saw Kyle making a play here on this, I had a good inkling of where it was going. Is it where I think it’s going tonight? What do you think here, Kyle? About Quinnipiac hosting St. Peter’s?

Kyle Hunter:

Yeah, it’s where you think in this one. St. Peter’s, look back at what they’ve been doing here lately on their schedule. Dating since December 1st, every single game they’ve played has been 131 points or lower. They’re very consistent at being terrible on offense, pretty good on defense. They slow the pace down very well. They’re 343rd in tempo. Quinnipiac is a bit faster. They’re 154th in average possession length on offense. I think they’ll push the tempo a bit, but we don’t see them playing in many games that are in the 70s possession wise, usually in the mid-60s or 68 or something like that. In a game like this, I think Quinnipiac wins and it’s probably not terribly close at the end, so I don’t think we have to worry too much about over time or a foul fest at the end of the game. Quinnipiac’s offense is only decent.

They shoot the ball, not too great. 64.8 from the free throw line. I think St. Peter’s in the first game. It was 63-56 the first time they played. St. Peter’s won. Now Quinnipiac was really poor from the three point line in that game, so I do think they’ll score more points than they did in that game. But 133. When St. Peter’s has been consistently under this number, I have to take the under in this one. My number’s only a couple points below this. To be fair, this slate is not one where there’s tons of value all over the place, but I’m going to push my edge here a little bit and take the under in this one in a game that I think could be pretty sloppy.

TJ Reeves:

Interesting. All right, Corby Craig a thought here. The Peacocks of St. Peter’s were a darling of March a year ago. Again, Shaheen Holloway, the coach, moved on to his alma mater Seton Hall to be the coach. They’ve struggled a bit so far, but now we’re in conference play. We talk about this all the time. You get familiar with these opponents, St. Peter’s, only two and five in the league. Quinnipiac is three and three in the league on a Friday night in Hamden, Connecticut. Any thought if no official play?

Corby Craig:

Yeah, Quinnipiac is a team that I’ve been betting under is for a recent amount of time. They’re 82nd adjusted tempo. I don’t think that that is correct at all. I think that’s due to the start of their season. They played what? 1, 2, 3. They played six games of the 70 possession range to start the season. Since then they’ve played two. So I think that that number is indicative to an early season performance, not what they are currently. They played Manhattan and Iona to 68 and 69 possessions. These are two really fast teams, so I think you’re seeing a 66, 67 possession game versus a St. Peter’s team that really wants to go slow. So here this number is probably perfect. I don’t have a number in front of me, but I was close on this one. I saw Kyle was on it. It made sense in my head, but I just hope that they haven’t adjusted on Quinnipiac too much because KenPom’s still 82nd in tempo. So I don’t imagine they have and it’ll be a good way to look in the near future.

TJ Reeves:

And I had not noticed this, but it’s worth bringing up. These two teams did play a couple of weeks ago already, and St. Peter’s won in their home gym by seven. This is the rematch with St. Peter’s having lost their last two times out to Iona and to Sienna. It is a Friday night game again at Quinnipiac and Kyle Hunter says under, go under the total as we lock him in of 133 on that match up this evening in the MAAC. The MAAC, the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference as opposed to the Mid-America Conference, which is also the MAC by the way. And the MAC has a couple of games tonight as well to keep us thoroughly confused. All right, let’s move on to one more before we get to your Q&A. This is an interesting one in the Atlantic 10.

Boy, you talk about two of the top teams perennially, good looking matchup. Dayton hosting VCU, Dayton Lane seven and a half. The total is 129 and a half in this matchup VCU a very impressive win midweek already leading into this Friday night game. Kind of a marquee game on ESPN2. VCU at 12 and five, Dayton at 12 and five. The VCU win that came earlier midweek was against Loyola Chicago who’s not very good but they beat them badly in Loyola’s building by 14. All right, Kyle Hunter, I’m right back to you. No official play here, but thoughts on Virginia Commonwealth and Dayton real quick.

Kyle Hunter:

Yeah, I think Dayton’s fantastic defensively. The question about them is their offense. They recently, they’ve been very good on offense, 76 points against St. Joe’s in a 61 possession game, and then 82 points against Fordham in a game that I had the under personally in that game. They went nuts in the second half, 89 points in that second half after a low first half. I think Dayton is the better team here, but do I want to lay too many points with Dayton against a VCU team? This has kind of been a rivalry. These two teams don’t like each other very much. The top couple teams in the A 10 consistently, we know VCUs going to force a lot of turnovers. VCUs not quite as good on defense this year as they’ve been in some of the years in the past, 105th in effective field goal percentage defense. Last year they were ninth, so pretty big drop off there the year before they were 19th.

So I usually want to bet unders with Dayton, but I don’t think this one’s high enough for me to want to bet an under, because I think VCU pushes the pace quite a bit. VCUs been scoring 90 points against Northern Illinois, 89 against Davidson, so this total seems pretty low. I don’t want to bet an over with Dayton, but if you look at Dayton, 307th in turnover percentage on offense. I think I lean VCU plus the points in this one. I’m not really wanting to bet against Dayton, but I don’t know that this is a great matchup for them.

TJ Reeves:

All right, Corby Craig, DaRon Holmes leading Dayton in scoring. The Flyers have won seven in a row. They beat Fordham badly early midweek. This is a marquee game for January for the entire conference regular season slate. That’s why it’s on national cable TV with ESPM2. Thought on Dayton hosting VCU if no official play? Corby.

Corby Craig:

Yeah, this number seems very doable for a backdoor. It would make a lot of sense if Dayton just kind of pumps the brakes at the end and VCU pulls through. But I think it’s interesting, Dayton’s 307th in turnover percentage. They have the athletes and the size to be a pretty good team to break the press. VCUs going to press, that’s why their tempo is so high. They’re what, fifth in the nation in turnover’s forced? But Dayton’s lineup is 6’8″, 6’6″, 6’9″, 6’6″, 6’10”. They have plenty of size to throw the ball over most people’s heads and get out of these traps. So it surprises me that they’ve struggled so much.

The main thing for me is it’s interesting to see Dayton had such a high standard to start the season. They’re 25th in KenPom, and though they’re what? 12 and five, they’ve kind of fallen off the map. It doesn’t seem like we hear about Dayton too much this year. They’re 55th in KenPom now. I think this is still a really good basketball team that’s had their issues early. They haven’t been able to find the deep ball any. Their offense has looked bad, and I think this Dayton team for many games to come will be a very good basketball team.

TJ Reeves:

But as you’re saying all that, they were five and five, they’ve won seven in a row. They’re now 12 and five. Let’s see if they come on tonight again. Dayton favored by seven and a half at home. No official play here from the guys, but some good discussion on that. A 10 matchup coming this evening in the UD arena on the Dayton campus. All right with that, there’s our official ones. You see that we’re here Monday through Friday at 11:00 AM. Make sure you’re following us. Make sure you’re subscribed. Make sure you hit that like button. If you’ve just come in a little late, maybe didn’t make the beginning of the show and the official plays that have been happening. I see the live audience continuing to grow, grow, grow. Fun part here. Q&A now coming. Get us some stuff for Friday where there’s a couple of more interesting games to talk about, but also we’re going to look ahead to Saturday as well.

If you guys that are in the live chat, if the Savages have something, send it along our guys, Kevin and everybody backstage at BetUS will have something for us. Okay, let’s go guys. Question and answer time. Douglass is watching us. Thank you. Douglas says, what do you think about the total Kent State and Ohio? Corby Craig, any thought on that one in the MAC tonight, Kent State and Ohio this evening? I’m looking for the line in that one, and you may have it before I have it as I go backwards looking at all of my ones. It is Kent State by four and a half with a total of 142 if I’m seeing that right. Corby, any thoughts?

Corby Craig:

Yeah, Kent State’s pretty fast. I really hate Ohio. I bet the under in the Ohio game, 146 in the last game. It was like a 92 point second half to lose by the hook. So Ohio can find the bottom of every garbage can for all I care. Kent State’s faster than, who did they just play? Ball State. Ball State’s pretty slow and they scored 140 what? Seven. So I think that number’s probably too low. Kent State’s a pretty fast basketball team, so I would say it’s too low, but I wouldn’t touch it by any means. Ohio can go see themself out the door.

TJ Reeves:

Oh, not a Bobcat fan on that. Kent State’s a team that we’ve talked about before. Kyle Hunter, you’re in the state of Ohio here. Any thoughts on this one total or side or otherwise if no official play?

Kyle Hunter:

I think Kent State’s pretty good. I think they’re the best team in that conference. Interesting matchup. I would lean Kent State on the side. Kent State plays pretty fast, but they’re really good defensively. I think they’re probably the best defense in the conference. They won both ways. They won 47-46 at UTEP. They’ve won some high scoring games as well. I just like their ability to win multiple ways, and I think Ohio, while they do have a good home court advantage, I think they have a real solid home court advantage. I don’t think they have the same talent as Kent, so I’m going to lean Kent. I don’t know what to do with that total.

TJ Reeves:

Interesting. All right, good stuff on that guys. Ninja thirteens always with us in the chat and always watching on the show. Friday night in the Ivy League, this will be a recurring thing. Ninja says Yale, Cornell. He’s curious about the under 145 and a half. Kyle, you’re captain under guru here. Any thought on that total at 145 and a half the game at Cornell?

Kyle Hunter:

Well, I’m going to caution you with, I think I said this last week, the Ivy League. I’m terrible at the Ivy League. I really don’t like Ivy League basketball. But Cornell plays so fast. I mean they’re 12th in average possession length. Every time I think about Cornell, I remember that 107-105 game against Miami, where they actually slowed down at the end of the game or it was going to be 120 to 115. I don’t think I can bet the under in that game. Yale is very good defensively, but I think Yale will run with them at least some. So I think that’s a hard under to take.

TJ Reeves:

Corby Craig, I say that the Ivy League always loves to play on Friday. This is the only Ivy League game for tonight. They got a full slate on Saturday, and we’ve had some people bring this up that sometimes some of these teams play back to back nights. Yale and Cornell are not playing on Saturday, so this is a standalone weekend game for them on Friday night. Any thought including on the under as the fan question was?

Corby Craig:

Yeah, just from a broad sense. I don’t think 145 is a number that would be applicable to basically any team versus Cornell for me. Cornell’s going to try to score 200 if they could. So 145 and a half is a pretty normal number in college basketball. 140 is kind of the average. So I would like a 148, 149 to even start looking at a Cornell basketball game to go under.

TJ Reeves:

Good enough on that. Rick is watching us. Rick is curious about Utah State and Nevada on a Friday night. Nevada beaten by San Diego State in the Mountain West midweek in San Diego. Now Nevada back home laying a point and a half. Corby thoughts on that one? Aggies and Nevada Wolf Pack.

Corby Craig:

Utah State’s been good. I’m pulling it up right now. But Utah State’s been a pretty good basketball team all year. What? They’re 39th in KenPom ratings. So Nevada’s also been good. I think that Utah State’s probably a decent amount underrated here. Nevada’s what? 66 in offensive of adjusted efficiency, and I don’t think that that plays well to how they’ve actually played. They’ve shot eighth in the nation in free throws. Usually free throws are a pretty good indicator of somebody who’s actually a good shot. If you’re a good shooter, you’re going to hit free throws. So maybe I’m too low on them, but I don’t think that they are the eighth best free throw shooting team in the nation. So I think if we see regression there, Utah State’s going to push tempo and extrapolated over enough possessions. I think Utah State’s offense is significantly better. So I would take the small dog here. What? They’re plus one and a half. So if I had to lean, it would be the dog here.

TJ Reeves:

Utah State off to a 14 and three start. They did beat Wyoming, who’s not very good midweek. Now they’re on the road at Nevada on a Friday night. Kyle, any thought here if no play?

Kyle Hunter:

Yeah, I lean Utah State too. Utah State takes a ton of threes, which creates quite a bit of variance in their games. A little bit tricky. They shoot 41.5% so far this year, which is first in the country. If they knock down those threes, I think they have a good chance here. I kind of like the over too, thinking that Nevada’s pace is probably a bit faster than they look. KenPom has 247th. I think they’re a little quicker than that. Guys, as a side note, I’ve been corrected multiple times on Nevada versus Nevada. I have no idea how you’re actually supposed to say Nevada or Nevada.

TJ Reeves:

Okay, so what I was always told by the locals is that it’s Nevada like attaboy, but then you go out there and I hear locals call it Nevada. So it just depends on I guess which locals you’re around. But I was corrected long ago that it’s Nevada like attaboy. Nevada, attaboy. Nevada. But maybe somebody from Nevada, Nevada can come on the show and can help us with that. Steve Alford’s team, again, off to a good start. Has some good wins. They’re at home tonight. They’re a short favorite at home. No official play. We’ll see how that one goes with Utah State in town. Reminder there, hit the like button. Make sure you’re subscribed, especially if you’re just joining us.

I see dozens and dozens and dozens that have joined us in the last five to 10 minutes. So thank you for finding us. If you found us late on the live show, we’re here live at 11:00 AM. You see, we talked about some games earlier. The guys will recap that in a little bit. We’ve still got time for some questions and answers. We’re going to look ahead to Saturday in a second. Brian is watching us. Brian says Illinois six and a half. Is that too much for the matchup with Michigan State? It’s another good Big 10 game. Fox Sports One will have it tonight. Nine eastern time from Champaign. Is that line too big, Kyle Hunter?

Kyle Hunter:

Yeah, if I was betting aside, I’d take Michigan State. Now having said that, I think Illinois has a lot of talent and they could blow away Michigan State. It wouldn’t be shocking, but Illinois’s been so inconsistent. I’m very scared to lay that many points with them. They lost by 15 at home to a Penn State team that’s clearly less talented than Michigan State. Now Penn State’s playing pretty well, but I guess the question is [inaudible 00:24:39] Illinois, that they’ve turned it around based on a win at home against Wisconsin with Wisconsin without their best player, and then at Nebraska by 26 points. I think it’s hard to point to metrics that would get this line to six and a half points. So my lean is Michigan State.

TJ Reeves:

Corby Craig, a thought on this? Michigan State kind of rounding into form. They beat Michigan on the weekend. Now a Friday night game here at Illinois.

Corby Craig:

And this is way too many points. I’m pretty close on the under here. Michigan State’s a team that’s not going to push any pace at all. They’re always going to be a good defensive team and I really don’t think they can score. In the preseason conversation, these were two teams that I was really low on, Michigan State and Illinois. I think any team that has what? Matthew Meyers, they’re fourth most efficient, no second most efficient player. And if Matthew Meyers is your second most efficient player, I don’t think that your offense is that good. I think Terrence Shannon is an absolute dog, so that’ll be interesting. But Michigan State has shown time and time again they can match up with basically anybody. I think six and a half’s definitely too many points, but I’m not buying Illinois by any means. I’m not buying Michigan State’s ability to score. So I was really hoping to see this in the 140, right at 140, but I like the under here. I think it’s 137 and a half this morning. So I lean the under.

TJ Reeves:

Michigan State kind of rounding into form even earlier than March for Tom Izzo’s team. What is that? 2, 4, 6, 7 wins in a row. They did beat Wisconsin. That’s right. Midweek as well. A great win at the Kohl Center where they hit every big shot midweek so they beat their rival Michigan on the weekend, beat Wisconsin midweek, and now go play Illinois at Illinois in the same week. Big 10 schedule maker didn’t do them a lot of favors with those being the three games within a five-day span. Let’s see what happens tonight in that matchup. Couple of more here and then I want to look ahead to Saturday. Dalton is watching us, says he’s interested in the under. You guys love the unders. He’s interested in the under in the Akron game with Eastern Michigan. Friday night, MAC, Mid-American Conference action. The total at 143 and a half ish, right around there. What do you think guys on the under, Corby?

Corby Craig:

Yeah, Akron’s been a team I’ve bet a couple times to the under. They’re really slow. I really don’t think that they have a ton of good scores and they play pretty good defense. That said, Eastern Michigan is the biggest toss up in college basketball that you can have. They could score 100, they could score 40. So they’re 40th in the nation in tempo. So I don’t think that I would really tend to try to bet an under just because they do have talent on their team. But it’s just individual ISO basketball. So in most cases it probably does go under, but the possessions are going to be there. They just played Western Michigan to 76 possessions. Bowling Green to 73, Florida Atlantic to 73, but then they’ll have 60 vs Niagara. So literally their deviation is just so big that they’re not even on my sheet to look at in the mornings.

TJ Reeves:

Interesting. They scored 64. Now we’re talking Eastern Michigan at South Carolina in a loss. 65 in a home loss to Bowling Green. Kyle Hunter. 56 in a home loss to Central Michigan. They got 79 to Corby’s point in the loss to Western Michigan and now Friday night in Akron. Any thought on the under before we move off this real quick?

Kyle Hunter:

Yeah, I mean I don’t think I could have said it any better than Corby did. I loved his breakdown there. Corby’s sharp in the way he broke this game down. All one-on-one basketball for Eastern Michigan. In fact, I was looking as he was talking, assist a field goal made. They’re last in the country and it’s not even close.

TJ Reeves:

Wow.

Kyle Hunter:

So 37 is their rate for assist to field goals made, which is horrible. So very little passing going on for their offense, but they’re playing really fast and their defense is terrible. I can’t take an Eastern Michigan under, I like unders, I like Akron unders, but Eastern Michigan’s too much of a wild card for me.

Corby Craig:

To Kyle’s point, Bates, and I don’t even want to try to say this guy’s last name, but they shoot 58 and a half percent of their entire team shots. That’s 51st and 200th in the nation in percentage shooting. Two guys shoot nearly 60% of their teens entire shots. They’re not passing the basketball.

TJ Reeves:

Interesting. For that in the matchup, so you’re talking about the Eastern Michigan player? I was going to try to get you a name on that, but I don’t think I’m going to be able to.

Corby Craig:

Emoni Bates and Noah Farrakhan. That’s the best you get from me.

TJ Reeves:

Okay. And Bates, we know we keep talking about this whether it’s Max Abmas with Oral Roberts, Antoine Davis, the kid from Detroit that was in action last night in the Horizon League. Jelly Walker, I’m speaking your language, UAB Blazers, they’re going to probably take about 30% of the shots. If you’re a leading scorer scoring 25, 28 a game, you’re taking most of the shots. But if you have only one other guy that’s taking another 20% or 25% of the shots. What is the phrase the kids use now and it’s made the rounds I guess in college circles and the NBA hero ball, there’s too much hero ball. You called it ISO Corby early. But too much give me the ball and get out of my way stuff as opposed to ball movement in the college game.

We don’t like to see that. So keep an eye on Eastern Michigan and Emoni Bates tonight in that matchup there with Akron. All right, let’s get to some Saturday games of interest. Again, keep the questions and answers coming. But now we’re going to project a little bit to Saturday. So guys, Kentucky and Tennessee, very intriguing. Noon eastern time games Saturday on ESPN. We don’t have a line just yet. You guys might have a feel for that. My belief is Kentucky’s going to be at least a 10 point underdog here. I mean Tennessee’s number five in the country, they’re at home. Am I crazy to think that Calipari’s team is sick of hearing all the negative stuff, all the stuff that he may be leaving, and that they’ve got something to hang in here with Tennessee and have a chance to win this game. Aiden is asking the same thing in our live chat. Guys, a projection on what that line might be, Kyle and what do you think about Kentucky?

Kyle Hunter:

KenPom has 14. And I see Bart Torvik has 18 and a half.

TJ Reeves:

Wow.

Kyle Hunter:

If it was 18 and a half I’m taking Kentucky, I’ll say that.

TJ Reeves:

Oh my God, yes. Yes.

Kyle Hunter:

Even 14’s tempting. I think Kentucky is probably a buy low type of team here soon. They have too much talent to be this bad. They just got embarrassed at home losing to South Carolina. Now Tennessee is really good. Defensively, Tennessee’s a team I like to take unders with. I think if this one comes out in the 130s, I would lean to an under in this game. But if you like the under, you’re probably going to like taking 14 or 15 points as well. So that would be my lean.

TJ Reeves:

Corby Craig, Tennessee had problems with Vanderbilt. They were losing at halftime at home midweek. That’s Vanderbilt. This is Kentucky. All right, so it’s a rivalry game. It’s an early game. Thought here on this? And is that line going to be 12, 14 points, something like that?

Corby Craig:

Yeah, I’m looking for what a money line would be on that. It looks like we would get a money line near plus 600. And if it is that I will be on it for sure. I made this line 11 and a half. I still think that that’s way too weak. I think Kentucky has played miserable. They have played the worst basketball they could possibly play. Also if you’ve watched a Tennessee basketball game, I really don’t think that they’re as good as they look. What? The Maryland game they didn’t cover. That was the game that peaks my interest the most. Because other games, what? They beat Mississippi by four. Cool. They beat Mississippi State. That was a really good win. They beat South Carolina, who cares? They struggled with Vanderbilt.

TJ Reeves:

Hold on. They clobbered South Carolina by 40 and then South Carolina turns right around and beats Kentucky at Rupp Tuesday and that opened a lot of eyes.

Corby Craig:

I think…

TJ Reeves:

South Carolina was winning the game in the first half. It opened a lot up eyes. And then they went on and beat them. And I don’t get big into comparing scores, but the Tennessee just recently played South Carolina and beat them by 40 points. So that’s a bit puzzling. I just think with the two or three days to stew here, Corby, we’re going to see a much better Kentucky team. Can they shoot it a little bit? They were terrible the other night from the outside. Can they shoot it a little bit at Thompson Bowling Arena? If they can’t, Tennessee may run them out of there. Corby?

Corby Craig:

Yeah, I think that if you take out the South Carolina, Tennessee game and the South Carolina, Kentucky game, you act like those games weren’t played. What is this line? I would say it’s six and a half, seven. I think there’s too much weight being put on that. South Carolina shot four for 26 from three in that game. They lost by 40. Don’t get me wrong, there were much bigger issues than the three point shot, but Tennessee shot 45% from three. They played the perfect basketball. They went 55% from the field. So I think there’s too much weight put on that game. This is a seven to eight point game in my opinion. Maybe I’m wrong. Maybe Kentucky loses by 50 and Calipari’s off, but they have all the talent in the world. They have a coach who’s proved himself over the test of time. And 12, 13, 14, that would be too many points.

TJ Reeves:

Ethan, I see you there. Ethan’s in the live chat says, doesn’t matter what Calipari’s sick of Tennessee’s going to destroy them. He says that’s at least going to be a minus 15 he thinks in the game. All right, so there’s a comment on that. A couple of more from Saturday. I don’t know if we got a specific question on any of these. I’m interested in Miami, NC State early as well. I don’t know what that line’s going to be. NC State, remember wiped out Duke recently. Miami’s been really good under Jim Larranaga. I don’t know if you guys have a feel for that line, Corby? Noon in Raleigh on the ACC network. NC State hosting Miami.

Corby Craig:

I have NC State by a half, so basically pick them. I really like this.

TJ Reeves:

Wow.

Corby Craig:

I like this Miami team a lot. I’ve probably liked them too much all year. The Cornell game probably should have been my smack around to stop liking them as much as I do, but they’ve proven themselves. They’re what, 14 and two? They beat Notre Dame, they beat Virginia. It’s a good basketball team. I think Isaiah Wong is one of the more underrated players in the entire nation. He has the potential to be an NBA player in my opinion, like a decent, he looks and fills all the roles. As we talked about ISO basketball, he is getting away from that generation. He is what, 300th in the nation in assist rate?Also one of the least turnovers rates in the nation. So I think he’s just an overall really good basketball player, and I hope that Miami wins this game outright.

TJ Reeves:

Kyle, any quick thought? Miami, NC State in the ACC Saturday?

Kyle Hunter:

I don’t think I’ll bet this game. I think it could be pretty high scoring. My lean would be an over, if you get 150 or 152 or something like that. I think that NC State will be favored by three and a half or somewhere in that range. Maybe Corby’s going to be looking to take Miami based on where the line comes out there. Because I do think it’s at least a possession for NC State based on what they’ve done here lately. You got to think too, NC State went to Virginia Tech right after beating Duke and that was a pretty big letdown spot and then they won. So, NC State’s playing pretty well. A fun game for sure.

TJ Reeves:

Kansas, Iowa State just real quick also on Saturday. Where do you think that line will be at Phog Allen, Iowa State unbeaten. 4-0 early Big 12. Kansas off the comeback win. Had to scratch and claw in the final three minutes to beat Oklahoma at home. Where do you think that line lands, Kyle? Something like three, two, what do you think?

Kyle Hunter:

Bigger than that.

TJ Reeves:

Bigger? All right.

Kyle Hunter:

Kansas by six and a half, something like that.

TJ Reeves:

Corby?

Corby Craig:

Six and a half as well.

TJ Reeves:

Okay.

Kyle Hunter:

Six and a half. Yeah. I think Iowa State is very good defensively, but I don’t know if they have the offensive fire power to keep up with Kansas. And Kansas just got their scare. They probably should have lost to Oklahoma, so I don’t think I want to bet Iowa State in that game.

TJ Reeves:

All right with that, Corby, did you have any other follow-up thought, Kansas at home with Iowa State? Three Central time Saturday.

Corby Craig:

I think it’s Kansas or nothing on basically any number that can be released for me. Maybe an eight and a half. I’m probably pretty far away from Kansas, but I think that they cover any number under six and a half, seven. So maybe a money line piece for a parlay if it’s like six and a half, seven. Overall I’m not going to bet the game most likely, but I think that Kansas hands this one pretty easily.

TJ Reeves:

A couple people in the chat are still asking about Saturday games. Matthew wants to know about K State and TCU for a Saturday. Again, we’re not here Saturday, we won’t be back till Monday. So we’re getting some of these in. Any thought on that guys? On K State, TCU?

Kyle Hunter:

K State.

Corby Craig:

You got it. You got it. You got it.

TJ Reeves:

Go ahead, Kyle?

Kyle Hunter:

I think it’s kind of a good spot for TCU. So I’m curious to see Corby’s thoughts on this one too. Kansas State’s been playing so well. I’m wondering if this is the top of the market for them. They played so well. They’re getting a lot of hype at this point. Those two overtime wins. TCU off two really tough losses. TCU program that could really use something positive to happen. I think I like TCU in this game. What do you think, Corby?

Corby Craig:

Yeah, it’s the same idea. I think Kansas State. Listen, it’s scary to get in front of a moving train, but it just feels like this train has to stop at some point. What Noelle has scored 20, 32, 36, 23 in the last four games. He is hitting everything. I’m sure y’all saw the highlight of him pulling it from half court basically just in set offense. So can he continue? Well listen, if you played enough basketball you know when you’re feeling it, you’re feeling it. And this kid has the hot hand right now. But can they continue? At some point it’s got to fall off, and I don’t know if I want to get in front of the train until it’s proven that it’s going to or it seems like it’s a decline. But TCUs defense has been pretty solid. They just gave up 79 to the Texas and I can see a little fire under their bumps and this be the game that Kansas State just kind of falls off.

TJ Reeves:

One local time in Fort Worth and that alley oop to Keyontae Johnson, the kid that’s back from the cardiac arrest problems and off a year from the University of Florida now transferred to Kansas State. My Lord, he jumped out of the gym on that one-handed alley oop the other night in their win. K State rolling 4-0 early for the Wildcats in the Big 12. We’ll see how that one goes. One more quick question or two. Somebody was asking about Villanova, Butler I believe, which is tonight. If we would give a thought about Villanova, Butler because it’s a Friday night game. Let’s go back to that. Do I have that correct guys, for the Friday night? If I don’t have it correct, please correct me on that.

Corby Craig:

I don’t have the number in front of me, but it looks like basically a 68, 66 game for KenPom. That seems pretty fair. These are two really slow teams. I could see the under here if that’s the case.

TJ Reeves:

Villanova one point favorite, Corby. The total right at 132. It’s at Butler tonight at 7:00 Eastern Time on a Friday.

Corby Craig:

Butler has a lot of talented pieces. I really don’t think that we’ve seen the high of Butler. They’re what, 10 and eight? I think they’re a much better team than 10 and eight. So I think one is probably right and it seems like that’s a number that most people are going to really want to play Villanova. But Butler, I think that would surprise a lot of teams of their talent pool.

TJ Reeves:

Kyle, any thought there? Butler Friday night in the Big East hosting Villanova. Butler two and five in the conference.

Kyle Hunter:

This is a tough one for me. I keep thinking Villanova’s got to be better than they are, but Jay Wright’s not walking through that door. And I don’t know, probably a good spot for Butler, but I don’t know if I trust him enough. So probably a pass for me.

Corby Craig:

Now imagine if Jay Wright did walk through the door? Now that would be a game.

TJ Reeves:

Jay Wright right now is making a bunch of money to do TV and sit back and figure out what his next move is, whether that’s NBA or whatever. All right, great stuff with the Q&A. We gave you a bunch there in 20 minutes. Hopefully some good stuff for Saturday. Let’s circle back to what we are on officially for a Friday. One play from each handicapper. Kyle likes the under, no surprise. St. Peter’s, Quinnipiac. And Corby likes an over, which is an interesting one here. Corby going over the total against Purdue tonight in West Lafayette on a Friday night in the Big 10. And again, we got some decent games for a Friday night. We’ve got that one with Nebraska at Purdue. We’ve also got the Michigan State, Illinois game, which should be good. VCU, Dayton we’re very interested in. We talked about as well as Utah State, Nevada, all on a Friday. Decent on a Friday card. Final thoughts, guys, as we head to the weekend? Anything else? Kyle Hunter, anything else that we didn’t cover? Maybe something else from Saturday that you want to share or are we good?

Kyle Hunter:

I’ll tell you what, we covered a lot of ground here in that Q&A. That was fun getting to all those games from Friday and Saturday. So I think we covered the ones that I was looking at mostly. Obviously there’s a lot of under the radar games that I like here for Saturday coming up. Huge slate.

TJ Reeves:

Duke, Clemson, let me interrupt you. Duke, Clemson. A couple people asked about that in the chat. That’s Duke at 6-0, Clemson in the ACC. Any quick thought on that? What do we think that line might be, guys?

Kyle Hunter:

Clemson be favorite there?

TJ Reeves:

Probably.

Kyle Hunter:

[Inaudible 00:41:34] minus one.

Corby Craig:

I hope so. Clemson’s fraudulent. Listen, they’re not…

TJ Reeves:

You think they’re fraudulent at this point? They’ve gotten some good wins.

Corby Craig:

I’m not falling for it.

TJ Reeves:

Would you consider them less fraudulent if they get the Duke win?

Corby Craig:

Yeah, for sure. I think that, well, it depends. If you’ve watched their games. They’re not getting very open. PJ Hall is hitting shots with people in their face. But tempo’s being pushed to teams trying to pick on a less scrappy basketball team. I’ve bet a lot of Clemson unders lately. That’s the only reason I know anything about this team in particular. But they’ve shot lights out. When they need to hit shots, they’re hitting shots and I think these don’t fall in most cases.

TJ Reeves:

Duke got the midweek win over Pitt. They were losing in the first half of that game, but came from behind to win it. Clemson has won six straight conference games here. They did beat Pitt at Pitt. They did beat NC State. Corby Craig is unimpressed. Let’s see what they do with Duke.

Corby Craig:

They beat Louisville too.

TJ Reeves:

They did beat Louisville most recently. He’s unimpressed. Corby, any final thought before we’re good for a weekend? Are we good?

Corby Craig:

Yeah, no, I think we’re good. I was going to get a haircut today so y’all can see me with a new haircut, but it’s Friday the 13th. I think it’s a bad idea, so I’m going to wait till tomorrow.

TJ Reeves:

Oh, well, it is Friday the 13th for those that are superstitious on that. We’ll see if Friday the 13th is good though to some of these teams and to our handicaps for tonight. Kyle, have a great weekend. Thank you, Corby Craig. Have a great weekend. Thank you. We covered a lot of ground with a lot of different games, you can check our sportsbook website. Guys, great stuff. Kevin and everybody at BetUS, we appreciate it. We thank you for watching. If you’ve not done so, hit that like button on your way out. We have a lot of you tuned in here. Also, make sure that you are subscribed to the BetUS College Basketball Show. We’re here Monday through Friday at 11:00 AM. Have a great weekend. Enjoy the games.