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College Basketball Picks, Predictions & Best NCAA Basketball Betting Odds [Tuesday, Jan 31st]

TJ Reeves:

Well, hello there and welcome back into a Tuesday edition of the BetUS College Basketball Show. I am merely the somewhat capable host, TJ Reeves. We’ve got our handy campers, Corby Craig and look who’s here for the first time this week, I think he’s on the Serengeti with that hat, ready to go on Safari. Matty Cox is back aboard here on the program.

Guys, good to be with you. Corby, we sat here yesterday and went over what was really a light card on Monday. We have to begin, have to begin, and no I’m not wearing Texas Tech Red Raider red. Wow, what a comeback last night down 23 points with 12 and a half minutes left guys, the Red Raiders come roaring back in Lubbock to win a game against an Iowa State team that was leading the Big 12 going into last night’s game. True example, Corby Craig, it is never over until it is over. They got the game into overtime, they won the game.

So for those of us that were maybe short-term invested, let’s say on a Texas tech money line parlay, for them to just simply win, we were thrilled with that. Corby Craig, thoughts. It is truly never over. What a classic example in the Big 12 last night.

Corby Craig:

Listen, I would hate to be on Iowa State side 28 to 15 fouls. I don’t think from watching it was very biased, I think that there were clear fouls, but 28 to 15, that’s a tough way to lose a 23 point comeback.

TJ Reeves:

Matty Cox, I don’t know how much you got to see of this because I know you were traveling and now you’re on safari. This was amazing and it was not really the three point shot for Texas Techs. Sometimes these comebacks are fueled, if you will, by the three pointer. They did it with defense, with steals, some layups, some foul shots. Down 23 with 12 minutes left, it is remarkable to come back, especially in such a big time conference like the Big 12, as competitive as it is, to come back and win that kind of game. Give me a quick thought on it, please.

Matty Cox:

Yeah, just ultimate desperation. Still no excuse for Iowa State to fold with that type of lead and that type of security blanket, but I mean Texas Tech, we talked about it I think on yesterday’s show. I wasn’t here, but I think you already, you guys mention it. It’s just team that’s [inaudible 00:02:16] and Big 12 play, desperately needing a win. And it’s a year where even if you’re O and eight, you’re not down and out. If they rattle off three, four straight wins sitting at five and eight in the conference, you’re right back in the tournament picture. So that’s just life in the Big 12. You’re going to see teams in just altered desperate spots and all these teams are good enough that when they’re super focused and motivated, any team can play at that level at any point in time.

So it’s very tough to handicap, but I think you have to be really locked in on the situational spots.

TJ Reeves:

Yep, Texas got a big win over Baylor. This conference just knocked down, drag out. We’re going to talk about a Big 12 game here on our slate. Reminder, thank you for finding us. We’re here at 11:00 AM Monday through Friday on BET US TV on the platforms, YouTube, social media, Twitch. Thank you for finding us. Make sure you hit that Like button. Make sure you’re subscribed. I know there will be a lot of people, as was the case yesterday, Corby was here, there’ll be a lot of people that are going to join us in a few minutes, 10 minutes in, 15 minutes in, you want to be here right away at 11:00 AM Eastern time for all the insight, the analysis, but also if you’re watching us later in the day on Tuesday, be here live for the interaction because we’ll have a chance for some Q and A with the peeps, with the savages coming in a little bit.

All right, let’s get to it, let’s get first to our record. A tough night. Mid Major Matt had an over that did not come home, did not get in on a Monday night with Morgan State and Maryland Eastern Shore. Corby, you actually pushed on the Florida A&M Alabama state game last night. We see on the show tally sheet that we’re still just below 500. Corby is hovering above it, and Matty Cox trying to get back up in around 500 and start doing that with today. And why don’t we do that with game number one?

Let’s begin with game number one for a Tuesday night. Here we go. Some handy camping in the Atlantic 10 for VCU and Davidson, Virginia Commonwealth comes in as a three point favorite. The total is 137 in this one. Matty Cox, you’re going to begin with the official play. What do we have?

Matty Cox:

Yeah, I’m taking the road favorite here, VCU, off the really tough home loss to St. Bonnie’s over the weekend. The Bonaventures, they’re a tricky team to play. They can mix and match defenses. Mark Schmidtz a great coach. VCU also went ice cold shooting in that game, 10 of 19 from the free throw line. They couldn’t hit a three at all and the Bonnies actually made their shots from the outside. So if you just normalize those shooting splits, I think VCU would normally win that game eight times out of 10, before that they had covered six in a row, starting with a dominant win over the same Davidson team in Richmond. Now they go back to Davidson, a place that’s been a little bit of a house of horrors for a lot of teams in the A10, including VCU themselves.

I think this VCU team is categorically different. Just the way they’re defending right now. They’re starting to get some offensive contributions from across the board. That’s the real key with this VCU team. If you could start to see signs of their offense coming into form, which I have at least prior to last game, which I’m throwing out completely just because of the same bottom [inaudible 00:05:10] matchup. I think they’re a great bet on right now. Laying the short road favorite, the short price on the road, team is super motivated I think and [inaudible 00:05:18] tournament at large hopes pretty much obsolete, but I think they can make a push with a couple of big wins down the stretch here.

I just like this Mike Rhodes team. It’s a team that plays well when they’re angry with their backs against the wall, they feed off their energy, they feed off that tenacity. And Rhodes is an old school guy. I think he has his guys up ready to go for this one, so I’m laying the fuel goal on the road here with the Rams.

TJ Reeves:

Again, they did suffer that loss that you referenced to St. Bonaventure, but before that they had won what, six in a row, Corby Craig, any thoughts on VCU as the road favorite here coming in against Davidson and again, our total and this one is 137?

Corby Craig:

Yeah, I like VCU on the side. I lean towards the over, I bet the over at 134 at Open. Davidson’s a team that plays faster than the numbers are going to show. So the defense is 337th and defensive possession length. That’s not going to happen versus VCU, VCU wants to be as fast as possible then in the top hundred in tempo, and we’re going to see a team who’s going to full press force turnovers, they’re not going to be able to slow the ball down on defense. On offense they’ve been pretty much national average. So if you imagine this game has played at VCU’s pace, I think that that benefits them a lot. On the road I really don’t worry about a team like a VCU who really doesn’t rely on the three ball as much.

I think that road teams that need the three ball to go down are in a much worse shape. So I don’t worry too much about this being a road game in conference. I think that VCU has plenty of upside. They should have the best player or two on the court and yeah, I like VCU to get it done here. As Matt said. I think that it’s hard to put numbers on the eyeball test of is this team turning the corner? And the next game is a one for me that as Matt alluded, he sees VCU coming to form and I think St. Louis is a very similar, I think these two games are very similar, so I agree with Matt’s input on VCU turning the corner. I think they’re a pretty dangerous team headed into the back slate of the year.

TJ Reeves:

All right, interesting. Again, as Mid Major Matt keeps saying the Atlantic tens looking more and more like it’s maybe a one bid league, VCU clearly one of those teams to be reckoned with at the top and try to get that automatic bid. Interesting too, Matty Cox, one more time here as we lock you in, last week you were on a couple of sides with road teams, you’ve got another one here. Have you been looking at a couple of teams maybe since yesterday? Hey, this could be the spot for the road team and VCU just stood out as the first one.

Matty Cox:

Yeah, handicapping late January, February, it really is about situational spots and schedule. I saw some folks on Twitter talking about how road favorites have actually been really strong the last month of the year, or at least the last couple of weeks I should say. That comes in the wake of a dominant home dog run. I think it’s important to follow these trends. I’d never want to bet because of them, but it is important to note that I think that road favorites have really been a lot better the last few weeks after the majority of the year when home dogs were so strong.

So I think that kind of works a little bit in my favorite. Again, don’t make that because of those macro trends, but I think they are smart to follow.

TJ Reeves:

And again, he is on a road team with the Virginia Commonwealth Rams VCU. He says lay the three tonight in the matchup with Davidson for the first official play on the show. Let’s move along. Let’s stick actually in the Atlantic 10 but instead move to Fordham and St. Louis. The Billikens come in laying four on this one. Our total is 146 and a half. Corby Craig, interesting what your play is going to be here. I see a little preview of the play. What do you like and why?

Corby Craig:

Yeah, I like St. Louis to cover here at the four. It opened three, I think three was really soft, four is plenty fine, and for basically the same reason this VCU matchup, and I think that it’s interesting that these two are side by side. Because first off, I think that in most cases as Matt said, don’t be too afraid of road favorites towards the end of the year. I think that home court splits get probably pushed too much, especially in commerce play. I don’t think that the worth of these mid-major, like 150 to 200 teams are worth three, four, five points in most cases, especially if it’s a team like a VCU or St. Louis. St. Louis is 76 in the nations and points from two pointer, so they score over half their points from two and then they’re scoring 20% from the [inaudible 00:09:33] line.

So not too worried about them coming to a gym they’re not familiar with and not being able to hit the three, because they don’t really care to hit the three. The biggest thing for me here is St. Louis has turned the corner as Matt said with VCU. I think that this St. Louis team is dangerous. If you’re talking, and we’ve talked about this a couple times, TJ, at the pick-up game, five on five and just an open court gym. I think you take St. Louis’s five every single day of the week against Fordham.

Fordham has had the benefit of the doubt of a really easy start to this year. They played Holy Cross, Stonehill, they played a decent game against Harvard played Maine, Wagner, Bingham, like they’re playing teams that I’m not looking too heavy on. They do have a couple of decent shooters but I’m not too worried about it.

I think St Louis, the big thing for Fordham is they have to get to the free throw line. They’re 29th in the nation and points from the free throw line. I think St. Louis has the guard play to stay in front of the… You’re still going to get fouls. It’s just the nature of how they play. But St. Louis is good enough to stay in front of their man, and if they get chest fouls then great, but I think in most of these cases we’ve seen swipe fouls against Fordham just because they’re playing against Central Connecticut and they’re faster, they get on the hip and they get fouled. But I don’t think we see too much of that in a St. Louis matchup where they’re going to have the more talented five on the court. So I’m going to lay the four with St. Louis here.

TJ Reeves:

Matty Cox, it is a six game win streak for St. Louis. They have a couple of great names. Sincere Parker is one of their top players and scorers. Yuri Collins again averaging 11 assist a game. All right, any thought here if no official play on Billikens at the Fordham Rams?

Matty Cox:

Yeah, tough handicap for me. Fordham I think was a good sell high to start conference play. Started off one in three, as Corby mentioned, I think they picked off a lot of really bad teams and non-conference, and played well as a favorite that inflated their analytic metrics. But they have been good lately. LaSalle, Duquesne, St. Bonaventure, especially St. Bonaventure on the road. Not many teams have gone into only in this [inaudible 00:11:29] and won, and they won handily. Then to come back home against the George Washington, a well coached team and put up 85 and convincingly, I do wonder if Fordham is back on the up. I can’t figure this team out. I’ve kind of put them on my do not bet list, wait and see.

So I think this line is too short. I agree with Corby’s angle here on slew. I’m a little bit worried about Fordham starting to find their mojo though at this point in the season, which we saw some evidence of being real in the non-con.

TJ Reeves:

All right, Fordham will host St. Louis 7:00 Eastern Time. Corby Craig says, give me the Billikens, how about this? Back to back plays on a side involving the road team as the favorite in the Atlantic 10. You don’t often see that on the show, so we lock him in for St. Louis as the official play on game number two.

I see a lot of you in the live chat, you’re asking about a lot of different games. By the way, Corby Craig, the chat disagrees with you. They believe this is Fordham, some of them are saying Fordham money line looks tasty. So you are in diverse opinion let’s say.

Corby Craig:

I love it.

TJ Reeves:

For what the chat, the savages have there, we’re going to find out who’s right on this one [inaudible 00:12:32].

Corby Craig:

If you, listen, the main thing is this is an opinion. I do the research to form my own opinion and if you don’t agree, don’t take something that somebody else tells you, we’re here to give our opinion on a side and if you don’t agree, don’t play it. Please play Fordham if you think that’s the right side, but I would highly disagree with you. So.

TJ Reeves:

Then again, Corby Craig, to this point is 34 and 27 with one push on handicapping and making these plays. So again, the boys are each on a side to start the show in the Atlantic 10. Keep the questions coming. We’ll get to some Q&A as you see there on the schedule in a little bit. Let’s talk some Big 12 again, the amazing comeback by Texas Tech last night. Also a Texas win over Baylor. This conference just keeps coming and keeps coming with big time games.

How about a rematch already with Kansas State and Kansas? A game won by K-State a couple of weeks ago in the little apple in Manhattan. Now they play at Fog Allen, Kansas off the very impressive win at Kentucky. K-State defeated Florida in the Big 12 SEC Challenge on the weekend. Man that is a lay of seven and a half points for Kansas in the rivalry revenge game total 145 and a half. Matty Cox, I’m right back to you. You don’t have an official play, but thoughts on this one in the Big 12 should be entertaining, revenge on the minds of Rock Chalk, Jayhawk.

Matty Cox:

Yeah, the only problems that they’re coming off a really impressive, and I think high max-effort type of performance at Kentucky, right? So I’m not saying it’s a letdown. Obviously you’re going to be geeked to play Kansas State, the team that you just watched rush the court against you and had a post-game celebration at the [inaudible 00:14:07]. So I can guarantee you the Jayhawks are all the way locked in. I’ll be honest, I’ve been a K-State hater all season. I think this number’s a little bit too high.

Kevin McCullar is supposed to play tonight, but he’s not all the way healthy. This is not a very deep Kansas team. It’s a team that relies heavily on Jalen Wilson and the shooting of Gradey Dick and their upstart rookie KJ Adams, I’m sorry sophomore, has been really strong but I think they really lack depth. K-State has that same issue as well, but I think with Nicole [inaudible 00:14:34] little bit gimpy, I don’t know if I fully trust Kansas to cover eight.

It’s just a team that we’ve talked about all year. They’ve not been great covering these bigger numbers in conference at home. Their home court’s great, but the Big 12 as we mentioned at the top of the show, it’s just so competitive. Anyone can beat anyone anywhere, and so even though this spot probably favors Kansas, I don’t feel comfortable laying the points here.

TJ Reeves:

This is very profound here guys. We’re going to say this a few more times, especially as we go through March into the final four, you need your best players to be what? Your best players. And Jalen Wilson is one of the best players in the Big 12 and he was one of the best players in that game with Kentucky where he got 22 in the win on Saturday night at Rupp Arena. All right, Corby to Matty’s point that now you have another tough game coming 72 hours later against K-State, a rival that beat you already, any thoughts if no official play including something maybe on the total in this one? What is our total 145 and a half? Any thoughts Corby?

Corby Craig:

Yeah, this is a Kansas team that we’ve talked about earlier the year. I thought Kansas was one of the better teams in the nation, probably buy some futures when it was 16 to one. I’ve also stated that Kansas State I don’t think is that great. It was just a train that you did want to get in front of. That said this is a lot of points. I think MGM currently has eight and a half, so I think that we made this number, we put the graphic before the market-

TJ Reeves:

Correct.

Corby Craig:

… hit an eight, eight and a half across the board. So eight and a half points. I really like this Kansas team and I still think this is too many points. This game seems like one that ends at six in most cases, so do I think Kansas wins? Yes, but I think that the market is priced in pretty well.

This being a five, six, seven point game in most cases wouldn’t surprise me by any means, and probably to a side, maybe the under at 145. This seems a bit high for a game that Kansas should be locked in, off a pretty tough spot. Like Kansas State starting to slow down a little bit. We just saw a 64 50 game versus Florida, so it was 73 possession still. So it really is up in the air from a tempo perspective. No clue what you’re going to get, but I assume that Kansas is going to be locked in, I would lean towards it under, but this is a stay as far away from me as possible.

TJ Reeves:

I’m looking live right now on Bet US while we do the live show and that line is still holding at 145 and a half on us so you’re getting a better value there, in particular if you like the under for example, you’re getting a lower number here at Bet US for that. All right, maybe you like the over, in that case you can take the over on the Bet US line and make a little money. No official play from the guys again. This one 8:00 Eastern Time, 7:00 local time revenge on the mind of self and company, with Grady Dick with Jalen Wilson. Are they going to get it or will Keyontae Johnson and Norris, the outstanding tandem of guards, will they get a sweep over Kansas in the regular season? That’s what’s at stake in that game tonight.

All right, one more game to go and then again, we’re going to get to your questions and answers. Hit that Like button if you’ve not already done so hit subscribe. Today is the final day of January. We’re almost to February. We have a goal to get to 4,000 subs. I was trying to get there before the end of the month. Hey, with as much live audience as I see if all of you will hit subscribe, that have not already done so that’s going to help pop us up even more closer to 4,000 subscribers. So keep hitting subscribe, hit the bell, share us out. It helps the show. Keep the comments coming. You see some of them coming on the bottom of the screen down below us, we’ll have time for some Q&A, but you can help us most by hitting the light button, hitting the bell, and telling more and more about it as we’re here Monday through Friday at 11:00 AM Eastern time all the way through March, all the way through the final four in Houston.

One game to go. It’s a Big 10 game. It is Indiana and Maryland. Don’t look now, but the Hoosiers beginning to put some things together. They’ve gotten a little healthier, they are a two and a half point underdog at College Park here against the Terps, total is 138 and a half. Matty Cox, you’re going to have the official play so I am right back to you for what you like in Indiana and Maryland.

Matty Cox:

Yeah, put my bias aside here, or so I’m trying to, but I think Indiana rules here. I do think it’s a great matchup for the Hoosiers. We look at what they’ve done recently in this kind of resurgence of their season, it was spurred in large part by the injury to Race Thompson, who’s been back recently, but when he went down I think and forced him to tinker with some different lineups. Really shining a light on their younger, more athletic wings, and Jordan Geronimo, Pops, we saw Mr. Galloway stuff up and make some plays. I just think the lineups really started to come together, at least it started to come together when he was out. Now Thompson comes back in, and they look really good with him. I think there’s just a deeper, more confident rotation that Indiana has to work with and there’s been some lineup rotational and schematic adjustments that Woods and that staff has made.

We never doubted I guess the talent and depth of this Indiana team. Now we’re starting to see the best version of it. Maryland’s in a great spot here, and they’re a team you have to respect at home, but I think because of the way Indiana has shown success with smaller lineups, especially before Thompson came back, that will come in handy against Maryland, who I think preys on creating that five out type of mismatch. That was their secret sauce slash and they’ve been really good with that this season too. So this version of Indiana gives me confidence that they can match up with Maryland and I think the home court, while you have to respect it, I think it’s over baked into this number. I’m looking to take two three with the Hoosiers, potentially money line if it comes down any farther.

TJ Reeves:

Trace Jackson Davis at this point, 20 points per game. Again, here we go back to your best players have to be your best players, and look, give Indiana credit. He had a 2020 game, 25 and 21 rebounds to help them in the Minnesota game two games ago. Corby Craig, five game win streak by Indiana, four of them by margin. They beat Wisconsin by 18 they beat Illinois by 15, they beat Michigan State by 13 at home. Then they had the close game with Minnesota. Now they’ve beaten Ohio State this past weekend by 16. So that’s four games where they’ve won by at least double figures. Any thoughts on Indiana as the road team here at Maryland?

Corby Craig:

Yeah, Indiana’s been a weird situation. They lost to Iowa after being up like 20, 25, it seemed like a coaching blunder. Then there was social media aspects where they were complaining about people complaining to them. It’s been a weird situation. And then all of that said, they cleaned it up really quick. They look like a really good basketball team.

They have the talent pool, they have the depth. Going back to the pickup game, I think that there’s not many teams that would match up well versus Indiana in most cases. This Maryland team is one of them though, as Matt said, this is going to be a pretty even matchup player versus player. I think they play a very similar schematic and I’m really not worried about Indiana on an away court. They have played decently bad on the road recently, but they don’t shoot the three ball much at all. They’re pretty efficient when they do, but they’re 19th in the nation and two point percent like scoring from two. So I’m not too worried about their blunders offensively. They should be plenty fine. This could be a really good basketball game, and it wouldn’t surprise me if this stays within four either way and comes down to the last second if you’re going to get a cover or not.

TJ Reeves:

Maryland again, favored by three. Jahmir Young led them in their win over Nebraska with 18 the last time out, Young is their leading scorer. They get Indiana at home ESPN 2 will have it at 9:00 Eastern time tonight. Maryland’s won three of their last four, including beating Wisconsin and Nebraska at home prior to this game with Indiana. Matty Cox says though that he likes the Hoosiers. There’s a lot of agreement with you, for what it’s worth in a live chat, we see some of the comments coming up here. The only other one thing we see that that Matty’s taken the points, taken the Hoosiers, is it a look ahead spot for the matchup with Purdue, the traditional hardcore rival of Indiana in the same state in West Lafayette? Any concern about that, Matty? I guess to you first you’re not concerned you’re officially playing Indiana, but what about a look ahead?

Matty Cox:

It’s a fair concern. I remember last year, end of the season IU was in a similar sandwich bout against Rutgers at home. It’s a team they should have put away at home and they lost by three and then they went to Purdue and played very well, lost by two. So yeah, I think there’s a precedent just last season of IU kind of laying an egg, but I think just how hot this team is, how well this team’s playing with the recent lineup tweaks and schematic adjustments, I think it negates that concern for me. So I threw that out the window when I made this handicap.

TJ Reeves:

All right, Corby Craig, any quick thought on that, on a look ahead to Purdue or you want to move on to Q&A?

Corby Craig:

If you’re talking like a Minnesota, not a Maryland maybe, but this team is locked in for Maryland. Maryland’s a very good basketball team. They’re what on the season? They’re 14 and seven so there’s no look ahead, this is a really good team that they’re going into their house and they’re going to have to play basketball against, so they will be very focused on a task in hand in my opinion.

TJ Reeves:

All right, good enough. Let’s get to some questions and answers, shall we, here on the program. Let’s go to Moneyline Ed, you’re always leading us off on the Q&A, again, get them in the Q&A live with us here at 11:00 AM Eastern time. Ed says, “Good morning TJ and crew. Will Yukon cover against DePaul? What do we make of Danny Hurley’s team that looked so much like maybe a one seed earlier in the season, and now continue to take their lumps in the Big East? What about this matchup, DePaul is one of the lesser teams in the conference?” Corby Craig, any thought on Yukon and DePaul? I’m looking for our line in that one. That is Yukon by 10 and a half on the road in the suburbs of Chicago. Any thoughts, Corby?

Corby Craig:

It’s a lot of points. My numbers made this 13, which was surprising because I’ve kind of been low on Yukon overall. I think that they got bought up to the number one overall spot pretty quick. They really had nothing to do other than beat Alabama, and then basically everybody gave them the top of the nation, which I don’t think that they were deserving of at all. That said that DePaul is going to push pace, they’re going to have plenty of chances to get… My worry would be that this is such a high number. I think in most cases, obviously Yukon wins, but with DePaul running such high pace, I think that there’s a lot of chances to cover this number.

I had this at 13, 10 and a half it wouldn’t feel good by, but if this went to single digits, I would feel pretty good backing Yukon here.

TJ Reeves:

Matty Cox, a thought on the Yukon Huskies again, our total is 145 and a half. Any thought here?

Matty Cox:

Yeah, it’s a big number. Yukon’s has been off for a week since they lost at home to Xavier, so I think that you get a good Yukon performance, but I think this number’s too high. DePaul’s got [inaudible 00:25:18]. He’s been back for what, almost a month now. I just think they compete on the glass and that’s Yukon’s only reliable way to score right now, because their back court’s been struggling. Very talented. I still think Yukon’s really good, but not a spot nor a price I want to back them with here tonight.

TJ Reeves:

Very good. We move on. Danielson is watching us. Danielson says, “Thoughts on Buffalo and Akron. That is Buffalo at home, but Akron is the two and a half point favorite.” Matty Cox, anything quick?

Matty Cox:

Slight lean toward the home dog. Here is a big money coming out on Akron. I believe there may be some roster issues there for Buffalo. I know they had one of their key guards out earlier this year. I probably don’t have that info in front of me, but I would worry there about laying the points with Akron on the road. I just don’t trust that team. I know they’ve been better, but I think Buffalo’s the right player.

TJ Reeves:

Corby, you love to look at the totals. Total looks like it’s 146, 146 and a half. Buffalo, Akron, any thoughts?

Corby Craig:

It’s tough. It’s two completely different tempos. Fifth in the nation, verse 300th in the nation in tempo. So who can dominate and set their presence? I would in most cases lean Buffalo, and so this would be an over, but I don’t like that number by any means. If this was like a low 140, then probably an over. But at this point I think this number’s pretty good. I would agree that… I’ve been at a lot of Akron unders, and I really don’t watch this basketball team and think insanely high of them, so I would lean towards the Buffalo side.

TJ Reeves:

Ninja 13 watching us, “Curious about the Duke Wake Forest game? Thoughts on this one?” This is revenge. Kind of like what we were talking about with Kansas and Kansas State. Duke Revenge for a loss at Winston-Salem. They’re favored by eight tonight against Wake at home. Corby Craig thought on that one?

Corby Craig:

Yeah, Wake’s the team that I have not figured out by any means. So my guess is as good as anybody else’s. I think Duke’s team at some point has to clean it up. They have the talent pool but they haven’t shown any reason to do so so far.

TJ Reeves:

Matty Cox, it is a Wake Forest team that as we mentioned, comes in as an eight point underdog. When last we saw them, they’ve lost three in a row. They lost to NC State by a bucket, they lost at Pitt by two as well. So they’ve had some narrow losses. Thoughts on Wake and Duke?

Matty Cox:

Yeah, I think the fact that Wake’s coming off three straight losses kind of overrides the revenge angle for Duke. I actually Wake here. Here I look at this handicap very simply. I think Duke was laying nine or maybe 10 months with that line closed against Pittsburgh, they could not get away from Pitt. They needed a late run to get away from the Panthers. I trust Wake more than Pitt, so just put those two side by side I think you’re getting pretty good value here with Wake at the current number, even though that revenge angle does linger.

TJ Reeves:

He’s specifically asking about the over. Any thoughts Matt or Corby on the total.

Matty Cox:

I don’t do totals.

Corby Craig:

Yeah, my bad.

TJ Reeves:

Corby. Any thought on the over?

Corby Craig:

Yeah, I would probably lean… It’s tough, because Duke slows the ball down. I would lean towards an under. I think Duke has at least the bodies to stay in front of Wake Forest and most of the time Duke doesn’t want to play too fast for basketball. So I would lean towards an under, still Wake is a team that I have been wrong on every time this year. So may make you feel better about your over.

TJ Reeves:

Game that could be sneaky good is at the same time in the ACC Duke and Wake Forest are on ESPN tonight at 7:00 Eastern time. Also at 7:00 Eastern time in the ACC on ESPNU while we plug away and promote for them. Miami, Virginia Tech, Miami is short three and a half point favorite at home. Thoughts real quick guys while we’re on the ACC subject? Corby?

Corby Craig:

Yeah, I’ve talked about this Miami team about nauseum. I like Isaiah Wong. I think he’s a really good basketball player. That said, I think it’s starting to get a bit much, I hope that they win this Virginia Tech game by a significant amount, even though I am very high on Miami, I think that the market’s starting to like them a bit too much and I would like to fade them in the near future. So if they could win this game by 20 then I would be a happy camper so that people get much higher expectations than possible. They’re very talented, they have a really good lineup of athletes and Isaiah Wong is one of the better basketball players in the nation. But other than that I just don’t think that they should be massive favorites in most cases. So I think that they’re probably playing towards their ceiling right now.

TJ Reeves:

Again, Wong leading them in points and assist. Matty Cox, any thoughts on Miami at home? They’re off a loss to Pitt themselves. They have lost two of their last three to Duke and to Pitt on the road. They did Clobber Florida State in between in the in-state rivalry game. Now Miami at home with Virginia Tech. Any thought real quick?

Matty Cox:

Yeah, Virginia Tech started to play a little better but I worry about the roster question marks right now. Had a couple of key injuries. They got Hunter Cattoor back four games ago, but I still question their depth. I mean they had to toss out John Camden last game against Syracuse, played 27 minutes in that win against the orange. I just think Miami’s the better team right now. It’s a better spot to back, if VT was fully healthy and felt really good about their pieces all being intact I’d lean that way, but just not the case. And I like the ‘Canes at home at Coral Gables.

TJ Reeves:

We move along. Keep the questions coming. I see your comments coming in the live chat and the audience again live has grown. We’re here live ourselves at 11:00 AM Monday through Friday, we love the interaction, keep firing away. We’ll get to some more games here as quickly as we can on the Bet US College basketball show. Carlin Peterson watching this says, “TCU, West Virginia, West Virginia off the home win over Auburn. TCU a short two and a half point favorite in Fort Worth in this matchup, Froggies lost on the weekend of Mississippi State in Starkville, Mississippi in the big 12 SEC challenge.” Are TCU back home, Matty Cox, any thought as a short favorite on the Mountaineers?

Matty Cox:

For those who don’t understand the money coming in here on West Virginia, which without the context of Mike Miles injury, who is TCU’S best player, that basically explains the money here. I think TCU would probably take money if he were playing and healthy but open three and a half, it’s down to two and a half in most shops. I actually see two at a couple books. I’m actually tempted to take TCU here even though with the question marks they have injury-wise, and I know West Virginia’s also very desperate, but I just think it’s too cheap to line. I like West Virginia a lot, I just don’t trust them and I don’t like them on the road.

Especially with the revenge angle potentially looming here for TCU after West Vi got them up at Oregon’s Town. So I guess my angle here is I’ll keep waiting to see if money keeps coming in on West Virginia, and maybe counterpunch with TCU at a dirt cheap price.

TJ Reeves:

Corby Craig, the Bet US line is two and a half, the total is 143 and a half, quick thought or you want to move on on TCU, West Virginia.

Corby Craig:

Yeah, West Virginia, the Auburn game they won but I take that as a kind of a negative. I don’t think this Auburn team’s good and they scored 77 on West Virginia, so I look at it more of a bad than a good that they’ve won by so little. Matt, I’m curious to you, Mike Miles injury. I don’t know a ton about it. He played four minutes last game, which is just weird to me. If he was hurt. Why would he play four minutes? Do you know anything on that? I genuinely have no clue.

Matty Cox:

Yeah, he hyper extended his knee. He’s not going to play tonight.

Corby Craig:

Okay.

Matty Cox:

So I think there is a worry that he would be out for the year but I think he should return this season fairly soon, but he’s out tonight so that’s what the [inaudible 00:32:34] coming in.

TJ Reeves:

And he helped them obviously in the NCA tournament and I did see that he had re-injured the leg early on in the game, you’re trying to play and here again where if you hurt it significantly enough where he can’t play for a couple weeks or the rest of the year, that’s what coaches are weighing with. Do we try to play when you’re not a hundred percent, when you’re maybe only 50, 60%? That’s why it’s a danger to get out there for Miles of TCU who we’re talking about.

Couple of minutes left for live questions. We’ll keep sitting here. I see that live audience, hit the like button. Hit subscribe. You guys are doing great. We love all of this here on Bet US. I have a wiggly camera by the way today. I don’t know if I’m just bum fuzzled by Matty Cox’s safari hat or what, but I’ve had a wiggly camera since the show began. We’ll try to do well with that. Let’s see. Rick is watching us. This is a really good game out West, Nevada and San Diego State. Rick is curious about the total, 137 and a half for Nevada and the Aztecs. Corby Craig thought on the total.

Corby Craig:

Yeah, this one’s going to be a really interesting game. Watching San Diego State my numbers have them as one of the better teams in the nation, but just from watching them. I think the issue is they’ve out talented a lot of teams. Like I watched this Air Force game where they won by 10 and I think that schematically and coaching-wise Air Force won that game. It just so happened that San Diego State could get a second, third, fourth rebounds and Nevada that’s not going to happen in most cases. I would probably lean towards the under.

I think there it’s just too much talent output, they can actually guard each other at this point. And we’ve seen a lot of San Diego State games who are overdue to the fact that other teams cannot. They haven’t really had anybody that could stay in front of them, because they’re a very talented team. But Matt Bradley is basically all of their scoring from a consistency standpoint and so I would lean towards an under.

TJ Reeves:

Matty Cox, this is an up and down Nevada team, recently they did lose to San Diego State a couple of weeks ago in San Diego. This game now in Reno where a week ago Steve Alford’s team behind Gerard Lucas ends up beating New Mexico in double overtime in a wild game. But they turned around and they lost a UNLV Saturday, UNLV outplayed him in the final few minutes and beat them in Vegas. Now it’s back home with one of the best teams in the west, San Diego State. Any thought here on this matchup with Nevada and San Diego State?

Matty Cox:

Yeah, I like the under, San Diego State was trying to play fast earlier this season. They played a lot slower recently. I think there’s been some very deliberate adjustments there by Brian Dutcher and staff. So I like under on pace. I worry about efficiency though, so if you’re looking to play a pace based under, or pace based total, I think under is the right side.

TJ Reeves:

All right. A couple more questions and comments from people that are watching us that we love. Dave is watching us about Vanderbilt and ‘Bama. He says, “I took plus 16 with Vanderbilt, Alabama got their doors blown off by Oklahoma Saturday early, how angry are they in Tuscaloosa?” Matty Cox, quick thought.

Matty Cox:

I think the OU game was just a terrible matchup for Alabama. Alabama’s one of the most devout drop coverage teams, where they just kind of have their big sag off, and if you have bigs who can step out and stroke it from distance, which Oklahoma does, Porter Moser has really good versatile, big guys that work different angles can step out and shoot, just a bad matchup. I give Alabama a pass for that. I don’t think Vandy can exploit the way Oklahoma did. It’s a big number though. I see what he’s looking at here, but I didn’t lay it. I still think ‘Bama is all the way legit.

TJ Reeves:

Corby, any thoughts on a ‘Bama bounce back? It is a lot of points.

Corby Craig:

Yeah, I’m not a big buyer of this Alabama team. I really like [inaudible 00:36:10], but I’ve kind of been low on all of their team except Brandon Miller and Jahvon Quinerly. I think Quinerly has kind of had a pretty rough year overall just shooting wise. Brandon Miller’s basically the heart of their offense. The issue is can Vandy stand in front of any of these kids and I think in most cases no. But this number just seems huge. 16, the issue is Alabama does run a pace where 16 is highly possible in every case, even if it’s an eight point game with three minutes left. So not a game that I would want to get in front of by any means, but I am lower on ‘Bama than market and maybe Oklahoma showed a way to guard Alabama.

As TJ talked about on the Monday show, it seemed like they were picking them up early and not letting get the transition threes as often. So as interesting as it is to watch, see if teams take advantage of this by any means, but I don’t think Vandy has a player that can stand in front of Brandon Miller [inaudible 00:36:59]-

TJ Reeves:

And see that’s a key distinction you made. Oklahoma had guys that could maybe guard them and not everybody can do that, pick them up right away, stay with them right away, because they want to get threes off a bunch of the time in the first 10 seconds of the shot clock.

Oklahoma was not letting them do that Saturday. But putting that in a scouting report, if you’re Jerry Stackhouse and then having the dudes to be able to actually go do it. Those are two different things. Let’s see what happens in that one tonight. Couple more minutes. How about this? Our buddy Mid Major Matt is checking in. He’s broken himself away from the Eagles celebration for the Super Bowl to ask about Toledo and Miami of Ohio, look at this, “Love the show. Will Toledo make their opponent quit tonight because they’re winning so much?” He puts himself, he lists himself as the unknown or the unseen reporter or the comic, give me a three pick parlay. He wants a three pick parlay with Toledo tonight. All right, we talk a lot about Toledo and a lot about Toledo scoring, they’re 10 point favorite in the mac, on the road tonight. Any quick thought guys? Matty Cox, quick thought.

Matty Cox:

Yeah, they’re going to score a hundred on Miami who has no resistance up front. Just an absolute atrocity of a defense under Travis Steele there. You think Travis Steele would be a defensive, focused guy even though he has personal limitations, but defensively they’re a complete sieve. They have no resistance at the rim. I think Toledo with their dribble-drive heavy offense. It’s not an offense you need to hit a bunch of threes to score. Like Toledo gets their buckets in the paint, and they can shoot too, but I think they get the bulk of their points easy high percentage and they’ll get plenty of those tonight.

TJ Reeves:

Corby, quick thought on Toledo.

Corby Craig:

Yeah, this is a Miami [inaudible 00:38:38] team that just lost to Eastern Michigan, so what can you expect from them? I think that Toledo basically does what they want. I’m trying to find the first half team total for Toledo. I would assume that it’s 41, 42, which is a lot of points, but I completely agree. Toledo does as they please, they’re on the road, but I don’t really think that that’s an issue by any means. What can this number be though? I’m not going to play a team total at 90 at this point. I think there’s a case for this to be slowed down, because Miami Ohio can’t do much. So if this is a 10 point game in there at 91 or at 89, I don’t think that we get to the 100 range, which is a reason to lay off the over, the team total over. But at the same time, I don’t think that Toledo has any resistance, by any means.

TJ Reeves:

All right, good enough. Mitchell’s watching us and wants to know before we’re gone about Texas A&M in the SEC. We have talked a little SEC so far tonight. Any thought on A&M at Arkansas, old school Southwest Conference matchup. So Arkansas just played Baylor who’s in the Big 12 now and now and lost to them. Now Arkansas at home 6:00 local time game, ESPN 2, Arkansas short three and a half point favorite or four point favorite. Thought on A&M Corby, real quick.

Corby Craig:

Yeah, my issue is that I just don’t understand Arkansas. I liked the Baylor side in that game and they didn’t cover, I think it was four and a half. The issue is Arkansas only has really two players. Even in that Baylor game, [inaudible 00:40:08] scored 25, Davis scored 16, then the rest of the team it was seven and then fours across the board. They really are a two player basketball team. And for that reason, my numbers hate them.

I have this Arkansas team pretty low. I’m pretty sure that I have Texas A&M winning this outright, but at the same time that doesn’t mean I’m right by any means. It’s just I think that in a lot of cases they don’t have distribution big enough to play against quality teams. Is Texas A&M a quality team? I guess we’ll see. They have cleaned it up a lot lately but they played Vandy to a pretty close game. They get beat by Kentucky. They played Florida to a close game so who knows.

TJ Reeves:

A&M seven and one in the SEC, right behind Alabama at eight and O, in a tie at seven and one with Tennessee. Matty Cox, quick thought, A&M at Arkansas or you want to move on?

Matty Cox:

I’m going to look at A&M’s second half maybe, just there’s a big depth advantage here for the Aggies. They roll out 10 deep that are all pretty solid. Not a big drop-off. Arkansas with their litany of injuries. Yeah, Corby talked about it, basically five and a half guys you can count on coming off a big game last Saturday, getting to the dog days of conference play, I would lean A&M on the full game. I think the price is a little bit cheap now at three and a half so I didn’t take it. So hopefully I get a good second half spot maybe to back the Aggies.

TJ Reeves:

We love numbers on the show. Texas A&M’s got a Henry Coleman The Third and they got a Wade Taylor The Fourth, like in the lineage, like in the family lineage, and those dudes played very well in their win over Vanderbilt. All right, let’s see if it continues for A&M and this matchup with Arkansas tonight.

Somebody else real quick was asking in the live chat about Clemson and Boston College. We haven’t talked about that as of yet. King Win is asking there about BC Clemson. Quick thoughts. Matty Cox, anything? Real quick.

Matty Cox:

I worry about Clemson’s injuries. They’ve had a bunch of them this season. They’ve still played really well. What are they? Title one in the ACC, I don’t want to lay it. I still think Boston College is underrated. Probably stubbornly and incorrectly so, but I would actually lean the home team here tonight with the Eagles/

TJ Reeves:

Corby Craig, Clemson’s 10 and one in the ACC. This game’s on the ACC network at seven o’clock. They are the road favorite. Any thought?

Corby Craig:

Yeah, I think injuries are the main thing. Galloway being… Does Clemson have enough depth overall? If anything, probably Clemson first half. I do think that they’re by far the better team here, but Boston College has a little bit of scrappiness on him. So injury basis, I would lean towards the first half if anything.

Matty Cox:

And Galloway could play tonight, but I don’t know if you can trust his effectiveness. And that’s basically two starting guards, they’d be down if he’s out so.

TJ Reeves:

Busy, busy Tuesday guys, I think we broke another live show record here today. They’re finding us with the football season ending, we’re down to the Super Bowl, so thank you. Thank you for watching us live. Do us a couple of solids, hit the like button, hit the bell, hit subscribe there so that you’re finding the show. Keep finding us at 11:00 AM Monday through Friday.

We’re about to flip the calendar to February. You know what month is next? That means March is next. So you want to be here with us on the program. Final thoughts, Corby Craig, final thought before we’re gone on a Tuesday and

Corby Craig:

We’re getting closer and closer to the days, so we prep, we learn, we figure out these teams as much as we can and then March comes and it’s all a shambles. You just guess. Hopefully a 16 seed gets a one seed and my blazers end up on top. So that’s all you can-

TJ Reeves:

Whoa, as we like to say, the more we watch, the less we know. Matty Cox, final thought on a Tuesday.

Matty Cox:

Good luck tonight for everyone and for me, because I certainly need it. My goodness.

TJ Reeves:

All right, back to the Serengeti for you with that hat. We love it. Thank you Alejandro, everybody behind the scenes at Bet US with a great show. Our best NCAAB bets here for tonight. Again, Corby on St. Louis on a side. How about this? Three plays tonight. None of them are totals kids, they’re all sides. Matty Cox on a side in the A10, Matty Cox with Indiana in the Big 10 and Corby Craig on the side with the St. Louis Billikens. With that, I think we’re good here for a Tuesday.

Thank you for watching, Alejandro, everybody at Bet US, great job, great stuff. Good luck with the official plays. Corby and Matt. We will see you at 11:00 AM Wednesday and from here on out weekdays at 11:00 AM on the Bet US College Basketball Show. Don’t forget to check out our sportsbook website.

 

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