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College Basketball Predictions | College Basketball Picks & Best NCAA Basketball Odds [Dec.21]

 

College Basketball Predictions Dec.21

TJ Reeves:

Well, hello there and welcome back. We’re back for another edition of the BetUS College Basketball Show for a Tuesday. I am the somewhat capable, most of the shopping done host just, what, four days away now from the big one. Happy Holidays, Merry Christmas, Festivus for the rest of us. I’m TJ Reeves. You see the handicappers that are here with me, Jeff Naidu and Kyle Hunter. Guys, good to be back with you and I know we are ready to roll up the sleeves, there are a lot more games today and it’s going to be a busy Tuesday show with a lot of plays from both our handicappers. How are we feeling, Kyle? First time we’ve had you back on this week. How are you feeling, Kyle Hunter?

Kyle Hunter:

Good, man. It’s been a good last week here and looking forward to chatting these games with you guys. We’ve got a busy slate today and tomorrow and then we’ll have a bit of a break here from college basketball.

TJ Reeves:

Well, things will slow down a bit. The big man on campus is back, Jeff Naidu. I do not detect bitterness on the part of the Citadel not delivering last night after we talked them up on the show. How did they not score more against South Carolina State in the second half, Jeff Naidu? We’re still wondering this.

Jeff Naidu:

Yeah, yesterday was the worst day I’ve ever had. Well, not ever had but this year in college basketball I’ve had. I couldn’t seem to get anything right. I had Purdue, first half, they lost and Baylor, first half, they lost. And yeah, the Citadel was ugly, I don’t know what that effort was. And this is where you just get irritated because, look, you can look at stats all you want and look at Citadel’s three-point shooting yesterday compared to the season. It just seems like every time I bet on some of these teams, they’re just my bogey teams.

Jeff Naidu:

Like Baylor, anytime I bet on this team, they just can’t seem to get anything right. And of course, they cruised in the second half but, yeah, all in all it was a bad day for me. It’s irritating because this is what conference play turns into sometimes. You’ll go two and zero, and then zero and two, and then one and one, and two and zero, then zero and two. It’s tough. You really have to work within yourself to get through it and, as Kyle said, you’re really getting to the end of the week and then you have a lot to look forward to in conference play and things rise to the top at that point.

TJ Reeves:

And again for Citadel, they were upset by South Carolina State, not a very good team, who outscored them in the second half in that neutral floor game there in Charleston. Or, it’s actually, I think, Citadel’s tournament in their own arena for that. But the Purdue game real quick. Again, they’re one of the better teams that you had the first half line in that game which they did not cover. This is where it drives you crazy, at one point, they’re up by 30, 74-44, I looked this up guys, with about eight minutes to go. And then, Purdue, like we speculated, Jeff, on the Monday show, took people out of the game, they only scored five points for the rest of the game.

TJ Reeves:

So, if you were on the Purdue overall number, you saw Incarnate Word out of San Antonio, Texas, slide in the back door and cover there in the final eight minutes. And we were talking about that yesterday. You just have to be careful, as a general rule, before we get into the picks on some of these blowout games and non conference here late in the calendar year. You will see the bench cleared and, perhaps, if it’s a large number, it won’t be covered. Right, guys?

Jeff Naidu:

Yeah, you look at some of this stuff at these games, whether it’s yesterday’s situation with Baylor or Purdue or even some of the games today, you have to realize, they’re at the end of the non conference schedule, Christmas is coming, the goal is to get the people out. And look, Purdue doesn’t care whether they win by 20 or 35, it really doesn’t matter, but we’re starting to see this for Purdue. They have these games where they can’t seem to get … Incarnate Word shot 44% from three yesterday. This a team that barely shoots 33%. So, just a couple of bad shooting nights and teams that don’t normally play well, play well.

Jeff Naidu:

But yeah, you have to watch yourself. This is why, again, it is a high-wiring act in non conference basketball. This is the second time, guys. And again, you get these teams you just can’t seem to get right. This is the second time this year I played against Incarnate Word in the first half and they beat me. It was this game and then they played Baylor first game out of the season. And for whatever reason, they just seem to play well against these two teams in the first half.

TJ Reeves:

There you go, all right. So, again, our guys are all over with different angles in different parts of this. Let’s take a look at the records before we get to the games that they’re going to go on the record with picks for today. So, the big man on campus dips back below 500 with the two losses yesterday. Kyle is above 500. He’s not been on since last week, so we’re counting on him to continue that trend as we take a look at our overall betting record. By the way, mid-major Matt did come up with a successful pick last night, if you were with us on the show. He did have the Western Illinois team total but even that, Kyle and Jeff, needed overtime-

Jeff Naidu:

Yeah.

TJ Reeves:

… for them to get over the team total to get it. But like we like to say on the BetUS College Basketball Show, it doesn’t matter how, right boys? It just matters, did you?

Jeff Naidu:

Two things, quickly, on that game. That was a concern, that game. I think you and I and Matt talked about that. I’m glad that he played the team total because Western lllinois did not cover the number, they really needed overtime to win the game and that was the concern. Coming off a game on Saturday, you got to head out to Denver and altitude and Denver played pretty well. They hung around, they were in the lead most of the game. But if I could say something about the overall state of college hoops right now, we’re seeing this in sports. Someone in college basketball needs to come out and set an expectation for what the rest of the season is going to look like here because this is a mishegoss, if you will, of a mess. Okay, you have teams where certain players are vaccinated, certain players aren’t. Look, college football, okay? And I know you guys are both fans of college football.

TJ Reeves:

Yup, yup.

Jeff Naidu:

I don’t know exactly how many games are canceled but I could probably say on one or one and a half hands, the kind of games that were canceled. There just weren’t that many. College football had no issue with the Coronavirus. Now, I know there’s some variants and stuff going around but, with college basketball, you have way less people involved with a game day, you have less situations. I know it’s inside as opposed to outside but there needs to be some expectation on, A, what we’re going to do because these leagues, whether it’s pro or college, continue to throw out this nonsense that if you can’t fill the team, you will forfeit. That’s not happening, okay?

Jeff Naidu:

If you like an owner, that doesn’t mean they shouldn’t have to forfeit like the Washington football team or whatever. College basketball, though, needs to figure this out, okay? You have coaches, basically like Penny Hardaway that have completely lied about what’s going on inside their [inaudible 00:06:44]. He’s talking about we had most of our team backs in when they didn’t, there’s just no seemingly expectation on what needs to be done. I don’t think they can continue doing it like this. There needs to be something set on what’s going on.

TJ Reeves:

And Kyle, let’s bring you in. Some other conferences are putting out there that if you can’t play, you’re going to forfeit and we already saw a forfeiture in a Big East game already here because they have that enforcement. But what do you have to say about Jeff’s point that there needs to be some uniformity, there needs to be some standard here, otherwise, we have the wild west with testing, putting things on pause, a team decides we don’t want to play, so now they’re saying that they can’t play? What about it, Kyle? Weigh in.

Kyle Hunter:

Yeah, I think there needs to be something across the board, like Jeff said. We just need to know what the rules are. I think some teams are doing it differently than others, some conferences are doing it differently than others. It’d be nice to know, across the board, what it’s going to be. It also makes it tough as handicappers to know what are we going to spend our time on, that game I just get canceled out. I’ve had several plays canceled here in the last few days.

Kyle Hunter:

Obviously, we want everybody to be safe and healthy, we just want an across the board rule for what’s going to happen because it feels like, right now, it is the wild, wild west and it’d be nice to know what’s going to happen. If this just keeps going, it does make me wonder what direction we’re going to go because there’s going to be more and more games canceled. I think there’s more teams on pause right now than there were last year at this time, guys, which really is pretty surprising given what we’ve seen in the last year.

Jeff Naidu:

We’ve also seen and, TJ, you know this, the NFL is starting to pull back considerably on testing vaccinated players that are not symptomatic.

TJ Reeves:

Right, right.

Jeff Naidu:

It is absolute lunacy to continue to test people that are vaccinated that do not show symptoms. They need to stop doing that. Certain college football, they’ve done it. I don’t know why college basketball started doing it. They weren’t doing it and, now, all of a sudden, they’re doing it and now we have 43 teams on pause. There just needs to be some uniformity here.

TJ Reeves:

Yup, something like that. All right. Now, the peeps are saying, “Wait a minute. I’m here for the games. Let’s get some games, let’s get some picks.”

Jeff Naidu:

But this is part of the games.

TJ Reeves:

I understand that.

Jeff Naidu:

This needs to be talked about.

TJ Reeves:

I understand it and we got it and we got it out of the way, so let’s get to the games and then we got plenty more time to bag on the NCAA or whatever else we need to do as the show goes along. Game number one is going to be an interesting one. Again, we go all over the map and all over the card. Merrimack and Maine is where we will begin. Merrimack and Maine both with losing records but there is a play to be made here, kids, on the BetUS College Basketball Show. And let’s take a look here at what Kyle Hunter and also Jeff Naidu think about this. The total at 113 for this one. Big man, I’m coming right back to you. I believe you have the play on this game. What do you think here?

Jeff Naidu:

Yeah. So, I would advise anyone that ends up betting online this game or getting involved, I would not watch this game. I would put the bet in and check it at 9:00 or something. This is going to be ugly, it’s that simple. These are two of the worst-

TJ Reeves:

Will it be uglier than the Bears for three and a half hours on Monday Night Football last night?

Jeff Naidu:

Most likely.

TJ Reeves:

Yes or no? That ugly or no?

Jeff Naidu:

Yeah, I think it’s going to be near that ugly.

TJ Reeves:

Okay. Yeah, that was quick.

Jeff Naidu:

This is a rough offensive game. I have this at first to 55 wins. I think that’s where we are here. I think we see a team probably not get the 50. Both these teams are incredibly slow from a ball movement standpoint. And I’ve talked about Merrimack before, they present one of the most unique, bizarre game preps you’ll have. So, they play this press zone thing and it’s very difficult. And look, they’re not a good team, I think, straight up. They’ll be actually solid in their conference, but it’s not easy to prepare for this kind of offense, it just isn’t. And when you’re a team like Maine who truly is a bottom five team in America from a scoring standpoint, I have to really wonder, I don’t even know how they string possessions together, let alone score in this game. You look at their three wins this year for the Black Bears of Maine, they’ve come against New England, I guess that’s just a region, New England, I don’t know. Something called Maine Fort Kent, sounds like an army base, and Maine Farmington, I don’t know what that is. Is that a community college?

Kyle Hunter:

Yeah.

Jeff Naidu:

What is it?

TJ Reeves:

They’ve done well in the Maine school system, apparently.

Jeff Naidu:

Yes, yes which again-

TJ Reeves:

But other than that, don’t know, yeah.

Jeff Naidu:

All right. Again, which you, Kyle, me and three listeners could score against. So, yeah. Listen, I have a lot of wonder about Maine scoring. And Merrimack, look, they’re just not real built to score and get into the 70s. Now, a couple years ago, these teams played, Merrimack actually did quite well offensively but this is one of the slowest teams in the country. They’ve really been mired in a struggle to score. They haven’t scored over 60 in almost a month. This has been a rough go for Joe Gallo’s team. I think this is a 54-48 type of game. I think this is ugly. Won’t surprise me if they don’t get to 100 here, honestly. I could see-

TJ Reeves:

[inaudible 00:11:53], right.

Jeff Naidu:

I could see 48-42 here. Look, if it’s a 70 to 60, so be it. I’m going to go under 113, I think 113 and a half. I’m going to play that.

TJ Reeves:

Kyle, any thought here on what Jeff is already building as an ugly one? An ugly offensive one. Want to bet it?

Kyle Hunter:

Yeah, I like the under here as well and, in fact, I like both of Jeff’s plays today. So, we’re going to have quite a bit of agreement on today’s show which is always nice, I hope we can get a real nice night for the viewers. Merrimack’s zone defense is so hard to prepare for, like Jeff said. I like Joe Gallo, I think he’s a really good coach, doesn’t get great talent there at Merrimack but makes it a really, really difficult team to prepare for. Maine is really bad offensively and they run a ton of screen action.

Kyle Hunter:

Obviously, against the zones, screens aren’t very effective, they’re pretty useless. Merrimack’s actually first in the nation and defense on screens because they’re playing that unique zone defense. Merrimack plays that zone press where they’re actually trying to slow the game down with that press. A lot of people think, “Well, if you’re pressing, you’re absolutely trying to push the pace.” They’re not pushing the pace at all, they’re slowing the game down.

Kyle Hunter:

These two teams in half court offensive efficiency, Merrimack, 354th and Maine, 357th. Now, there’s 358 teams, so you can tell that I would like the under in this one. 325th and 327th in tempo. It’s funny what Jeff said, I had the exact same thing in my notes. I put first one to 55 wins here, I think so. So, I do like this play, I agree with the under.

Jeff Naidu:

And also, throw in this fact. This is pretty fascinating. Again, I’m fascinated by this kind of game, that shows the kind of person I am. But listen, I’ve said before with Merrimack, if you cannot shoot the basketball against Merrimack, you will struggle to score 50. It’s that simple. There is no team worse in America from three than Maine, 358, 20.7%. And, for as many players as they play, they’re one of the highest frequency as far as bench personnel in the country. They’ll throw out 15 guys in a game, that’s just how they do it and they don’t have one player that shot better than than 35% from three as far as more than a certain amount of attempts. They’re nothing here, very little here. They’ve had some ugly, ugly performances. I think this is added to it.

TJ Reeves:

So, out of the ugliness, you can tell they both like the under. We’ll lock it in officially for the big man on campus going with the under on the 113 total for Merrimack and for Maine. Game number two on our slate. This one will come from Ball State of the three of us, I’m the one that’s been to Muncie, Indiana and Ball State and done a game. Eastern Illinois comes in, Ball State laying 13 and a half, the over under at 135 and a half on the BetUS line. Let’s go to Kyle Hunter on what you like officially and why, sir.

Kyle Hunter:

So, I’m going to take under on the team total here for Eastern Illinois. I will say I got a better number on this one, this one’s come down quite a bit. I don’t think it’ll matter, I hope it doesn’t matter certainly. Eastern Illinois has played 10 games, guys, against Division One opponents so far this year. Eastern Illinois is yet to score more than 62 points in any of those games and, in fact, the great point here was going to be the team total was higher than that earlier but, now, it’s 61.

Kyle Hunter:

Even worse, they’ve only scored more than 56 points in two of their games. This is just a dreadful Eastern Illinois offense 355th out of 358 offenses in the country in efficiency. This is a really slow paced team that’s really inefficient, so they’re not going to score many points. And they’re 309th in tempo. Guys, I think that stands out more when you think about the fact they’ve been losing just about every single game by quite a bit. So, they still go slow, they still can’t really pick up the pace and do anything.

Kyle Hunter:

Ball State plays quickly and they’ve had quite a few high-scoring games. That’s why this total’s as high as it is. The Cardinals should win this game fairly comfortably, I would think and they’ve played some good offenses. You look at who they played so far this year, Xavier, Weber State, UMass, some pretty good offenses. Eastern Illinois, nothing like any of those teams. I think this total is inflated. And also, Ball State’s defense, which hasn’t been very good so far this year, has been above average in each of the last three years. So, I think their defense is a bit better than it looks on paper, so far, this year. And if you’re going to have a team that looks like they’re due for some positive regression on defense, a good team to be going up against is Eastern Illinois. So, I’m going to take Eastern Illinois team total under 61 in this one.

TJ Reeves:

Very interesting. Big man, do you have a thought if no official play?

Jeff Naidu:

Yeah, I’ve always liked Marty Simmons, did a good job at Evansville, had some good teams over the years, always a good offense. He was a great player in his day at that school as well, but this is a real tough job. I think Marty probably just took the job because he wanted to coach and it’s nice to get a check, that’s his job. But this is not an easy job to have, this is not a good basketball team as Kyle alluded to. We go into the depths of every team and, if you’re asking me to rank the bottom five worst teams offensively, I would have talked about Maine, who we just talked about, and Eastern Illinois being there as well.

Jeff Naidu:

Obviously, throwing in IUPUI who is historically bad offensively which we’ll talk about in a second. But yeah, I have some real concerns. I think anytime Eastern Illinois is involved, you want to look at team total unders, unders in general. This team just can’t get out of their own way. Again, I’ve talked about this before, I could go to any park in Philadelphia and I think I could feel the team that would be better offensively than these types of teams. So, yeah, I couldn’t agree more with his sentiment.

TJ Reeves:

Kyle, just one thing here. You’ve been talking about the trend for Eastern Illinois, have you played some unders against them already? Have you isolated this team and now you’re going back to it again or is this something where it’s the first time you’re making the play here just because of what you’ve seen on how bad their offense is?

Kyle Hunter:

Yeah, I think I’m two and zero, so far, this year taking unders with Eastern Illinois so we’ll try a third time. If it ain’t broke, don’t try to fix it, obviously. And I’m going to see them prove it to me before I want to get off this train.

Jeff Naidu:

And remember-

TJ Reeves:

[inaudible 00:18:28]. Go ahead.

Jeff Naidu:

… as you alluded to, they have not scored more than 62 in any game this year as far as against the Division One opponent. So, again, I’ll gladly take that percentage that it doesn’t happen here. Look, Ball State’s not a great team but this is a team that struggled to score against Evansville. Guys, they scored 61 against Central Michigan who is horrific on the defensive end, so I don’t have any issue. These are sometimes percentage plays like, again, two of the three plays I made last night or one of the two plays. Look, if Baylor or Purdue or one of those teams does not cover it, same with the play I’m going to make today. If I don’t get a certain amount of points out of Iowa or something, it is what it is. That’s why I don’t get too down on plays. A lot of people hit me up, “You suck, zero and three. What happened?”

Kyle Hunter:

Yeah.

Jeff Naidu:

Listen, I made the plays, you decided to tell, they didn’t come in. I don’t play the game. But again, these types of percentages, 10 out of 11 games or whatever it is that they haven’t scored more than 62, I’d gladly be on that every single time. I think it’s a great play.

TJ Reeves:

I like Kyle Hunter with the if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. How about if it is broke, play the under, that’ll be our phrase today on the-

Kyle Hunter:

Right.

Jeff Naidu:

Right.

TJ Reeves:

… BetUS College Basketball Show for today. So, lock it in officially. Again, Kyle on the team total under for Eastern Illinois under the 61 points for that one on Tuesday night at Ball State. Game number three on our slate has Morehead State traveling to IUPUI in Indianapolis. Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis, they don’t like being called IUPUI, but it is IUPUI and Morehead State. And how about Morehead State, a 15 and a half point road favorite coming into this game. You guys, I believe the big man was just bemoaning how bad the offense is for IUPUI. We’re back to Kyle Hunter here and I’m smelling you’re going against with a total of 118 against oowee poowee, the Jaguars here and their lack of offense again.

Kyle Hunter:

Yeah, I was just sitting here thinking guys. [inaudible 00:20:36] been pretty dreadful games we’ve talked about so far, so I hope we can get some winners from them. But look, what can I say about IUPUI’s offense? Jeff just mentioned it, this is the worst offense in the country right now and it’s really not even close. Like he said, historically bad, they’re dead last in the nation in offensive efficiency. They have not topped 59 points in a game against a Division One opponent all year. They haven’t topped 61 points against anybody, even a Division Two, Division Three opponent. IUPUI has been held to 47 points or less in six of their nine matchups against Division One teams, 47 points, guys. And the last game, they scored 55 on Chicago State. Now, I think you guys know Chicago State well enough to know that that team is terrible, they are a really, really bad team and even that game is misleading. They had 24 points with nine minutes left, scored 31 points-

TJ Reeves:

Wow.

Kyle Hunter:

… at the end with the foul fest and the back and forth. So, IUPUI is just an absolute mess offensively and Morehead State’s a pretty good defense. They have one problem, does Morehead State, they don’t defend the three ball very well. So, do we trust IUPUI to make a bunch of threes? I sure don’t. I don’t think they will here. So, I don’t love taking team totals this low but IUPUI has proven time and time again they are just dreadful on offense. So, in this spot, I had to either play game under, team total under. I’m going to go with IUPUI team total under 51 and a half in this one. And Jeff said don’t watch Merrimack and Maine, I’m pretty sure this game’s not on TV but you don’t want anything to do with watching this game. If there’s anything else, choose the other option.

TJ Reeves:

Especially if you don’t want to watch bad shot selection and bricks everywhere. Big man, any quick thoughts on this one other than what you already laid out that IUPUI can’t score?

Jeff Naidu:

Well, Kyle mentioned how the games we’ve talked about are so poor so far. So, if we have one minute, I would like to tell a story that relates to this game if you can believe it.

TJ Reeves:

Sure.

Jeff Naidu:

So, I always like to connect it to one of my passions which is mob, mob history. I love it, I have a show about it. And, in 1987, there was an individual John Carneglia. John Carneglia was involved, supposedly, with the hit on Paul Castellano, many people know about that hit. In 1987, he was in front of the federal government and going to trial and he was acquitted of all charges in a RICO case against him and he went out into the hallway and he went to the media and he said, “Listen, my best 20 guys against your best 20 guys and let’s go out and settle this industry right now and that’s that, no more indictments.” I’m going to tell the athletic director at IUPUI right now on the BetUS College Basketball Show, I will go and get my best 10 guys to play your best 10 guys and I guarantee we will score more than you do.

Jeff Naidu:

That’s how bad IUPUI is. It’s historic. It is that bad, I’ve never seen an offense this bad. I’ve watched a lot of college basketball in my life, it is just atrocious. I don’t know how a team can be this inept. I feel bad for their coach. He’s a first year guy, I don’t understand why you take a job like this. I’d rather coach at high school. Why would you even take this job? And as I said before, they have one win on the year and I guess they play the basketball themselves. Spalding.

TJ Reeves:

Right.

Kyle Hunter:

[crosstalk 00:24:02].

TJ Reeves:

You mentioned that before.

Jeff Naidu:

Yeah, so-

TJ Reeves:

Yeah, it’s oowee poowee.

Jeff Naidu:

It is rough. But yeah, I’ll get 10 guys, they get 10 guys and I bet my guys will beat their guys.

TJ Reeves:

You even worked the mob podcast back-

Jeff Naidu:

Yes.

TJ Reeves:

… in here on the BetUS College Basketball Show, that’s well done. Morehead State, again, is good but, it’s interesting, they’re a 15-point road favorite in this matchup but that’s not the play.

Jeff Naidu:

Play it.

TJ Reeves:

Well, you’re saying play it unofficially. The official play for Kyle Hunter though as we lock it in is the team total under, that is a 51 and a half number and he says play the under, they cannot score-

Jeff Naidu:

By the way-

TJ Reeves:

… [inaudible 00:24:38] of IUPUI.

Jeff Naidu:

… Morehead-

TJ Reeves:

Yes?

Jeff Naidu:

Morehead might be the best team IUPUI has played this year. You would agree with that, Kyle, right? Morehead’s got Johni Broome as an NBA talent. This team’s good. Morehead should roll in this game.

TJ Reeves:

Right.

Kyle Hunter:

Right, great shot block or down low. IUPUI has to make a bunch of threes to win this game. I just don’t see that they will.

TJ Reeves:

They’re not going to do it. All right, moving on. Game number four on our slate, we’ll have the Bradley Braves venturing into Sam Houston State going into Texas. Bradley a road favorite as well, our total is 136 and a half. And again, we’re back to Kyle Hunter for the official play on what he likes and why on a Tuesday. Kyle?

Kyle Hunter:

So, this game is actually played at UTEP, at Don Haskins Center. So, a neutral court game, I like neutral court unders. These games, neutral court games are certainly lower scoring in the long term. You’re not used to the shooting backdrop, you’re not playing in a place that you usually do. Also, UTEP at a high elevation so that can bother people sometimes as well, you’re not accustomed to it. Bradley is always better on defense than on offense with Brian Wardle as their head coach. The only thing that Bradley’s not been good at defensively so far this year is opponents have shot 80.2% from the free throw line. Now, I don’t have to tell you guys this but there’s really no such thing as free throw defense, so we know regression is coming there. They’re not going to keep shooting 80.2% from the free throw line. And you guys know that I had to bring this up because better numbers are coming and they may well be coming tonight. Sam Houston State, so far this year, from the free throw line, 48.4%. Now, Jeff-

TJ Reeves:

Yikes.

Kyle Hunter:

Jeff said something like this earlier, guys, I’m pretty sure we could all shoot 50% from the free throw line. I haven’t played basketball in a while, I did play basketball. I haven’t played in a while but 50% from the line is not hard to do. These are free throws after all. Savion Flagg who is actually a pretty good player is 11 for 38 from the free throw line this year. Eleven for 38, just atrocious stuff. Bradley’s numbers will probably look better after this game than they were before this. My number here I had projected for this one was 132.

Kyle Hunter:

So, I’m four and a half points below what the total actually is here. I’m going to take the under here in a game that, I think, will be fairly close. Neither offense very efficient. The tempo is not as slow in this game as some of the others but I don’t think the shooting numbers will be very good. I like the neutral court, I like that neither team is very good from the line, neither team really fouls all that much either. So, I think we’ll have some inefficient offensive play here and a game that should stay under the posted total.

TJ Reeves:

Jeff, any other thoughts here? And Kyle, thank you for the clarification that it is the first game of UTEP’s four team tournament. They’re playing North Carolina Central in the late game. It should be an easy win for them to get into the championship game of their four team tournament. Jeff, any thought here on Bradley as the favorite on the neutral floor?

Jeff Naidu:

Yeah, I got no issue with it. I think Bradley’s pretty solid, always well-coached under Wardle, play a good defense generally, very good in half court and I think that’s where Sam Houston’s really going to struggle to score. Yeah, I have no issue with this play. And look, the great thing about these games, this game will probably stay under because, as Kyle alluded to, they don’t make free throws. And, if each team is 11 for 26 in the line, you’re leaving a lot of points at the line, you’re not going to get a ton of possessions, I think, in this game anyway.

Jeff Naidu:

Both these teams really make you work defensively or offensively when you have the ball. It’s going to be a lot of half court action here. And generally, on a neutral court, right before Christmas, I’ll take the fact that these teams are going to hit shots especially Sam Houston, they don’t hit shots ever. So, yeah, Savion Flagg should be ashamed of himself. This is a guy that was at a major college university and he’s 11 for 38 from the free throw line. And keep in mind, last year, it was 72%. He did a nice job, he only shot 32 free throws. But 11 for 38, that’s hard to do.

TJ Reeves:

That’s worse than what Shaq used to be at the line and there’s others. Was it Chris Dudley in the NBA for a long time?

Jeff Naidu:

Yeah.

Kyle Hunter:

Yeah.

TJ Reeves:

I’m trying to think if there’s a modern player that couldn’t make them for whatever reason and they were always being fouled. We’ve talked about this before-

Jeff Naidu:

Dwight Howard.

Kyle Hunter:

Yeah.

TJ Reeves:

Dwight Howard. We’ve talked about this before on the show. It’s concentration, it’s repetition, there’s no excuse to not be at least 60% but, really, 70 or 75%. Develop a stroke, repeat it, get it done on the foul line. Let’s lock it in officially for Kyle on this game and that is the under on the game total, neutral floor, again, at UTEP. The early game is Bradley and Sam Houston State. We’ll get to your questions real quick in the Q&A after one more game that is on our slate for a Tuesday and that involves the Iowa Hawkeyes at home with Southeastern Louisiana, the Lions. The Lions, a 28 and a half point underdog here against Iowa with a total of 156 and a half. Why did this game stand out, big man on campus?

Jeff Naidu:

Well, look, because I think Iowa is, quite frankly, I think they could be the best offensive team, top five in the country probably. And this team is incredibly efficient, second in the country in offensive efficiency. And look, Keegan Murray is making a case that he’s the best player in the country, it’s that simple. This guy has been incredible, dropped 35 the other night, he’s back and he’s healthy and he’s ready to go. Look, Iowa plays fast, one of the fastest teams in America. And, Southeastern Louisiana, as I mentioned before and before and before, they are going to let you run. They press, they don’t have much inside.

Jeff Naidu:

I watched him against Louisville and, many times during that game, I heard the color guy talk about, “Pound the ball inside,” and Iowa just kept going inside, get going inside, get going inside. Throw in the fact that if you double, Iowa could kick out to a bevy of shooters that can make shots. They don’t turn it over, they value every possession, they create a lot on the offensive glass and that’s big here because Southeast Louisiana, as I said, is not a big team, really struggled a defensive rebound. I think there are going to be plenty of fruitful trips for Iowa here.

Jeff Naidu:

Look, this is a team that in their 11 games, they’ve scored 90 or more in four of them and, in fact, 100 or more in three of them. You look at all the offensive games they’ve had against bottom, let’s say, 300 or worse, they scored at 86, 108, 109. And again, Southeast Louisiana will play fast, they’re willing to play fast, they don’t have any other option but to play fast. So, for me, I’ll gladly think that Iowa can get into the 90s here. Look, a lot of people will say, “I don’t want to play a team total for Iowa in the 90s or team ever in 90s in college.” Look, with Iowa we have to start talking about it because this is an NBA efficient offense and this is a bad, bad defense, that simple. They are going to get absolutely destroyed in the paint, it’s that simple. Iowa team total over 92.

TJ Reeves:

Kyle, any thoughts here on an Iowa team that has taken some lumps recently with losses to Purdue and Illinois? They lost a rivalry game, too, recently to Iowa State. They did bounce back as Jeff was saying with Keegan Murray back healthy and clobbered Utah State on a neutral floor 94-75 over the weekend. Any thought on Iowa?

Kyle Hunter:

Yeah, I bet the game over personally last night, so this one’s gone up a little bit. But I like the Iowa team total over a lot in this one. In fact, I considered making this a bet for the show as well but, officially, it’ll be Jeff on this one but I did put money on the over in this game. Iowa, they absolutely love to crush opponents and run up the score. Fran McCaffery’s teams do not let off the gas, they play really fast all the way to the end. If you look at it, so far this year, Iowa scored 106 points or more three times, all three at home against weak opponents. Here they are again against a weak opponent that plays fast like Jeff said.

Kyle Hunter:

Southeastern Louisiana’s interior defense has been terrible and you’re going to go up against Keegan Murray, McCaffery, Jordan Bohannon is a really good shooter from the outside. Keegan Murray is one of the best offensive players in the country, no doubt about that. I think Keegan Murray has a field day in this game. Iowa hasn’t scored less than 85 points in a single home game all year, so we’re not too far above that even with the team total here and they’re playing a very weak defense in Southeastern Louisiana. So, I’m a big fan of this play. I think it’s a good look here to Iowa team total over.

Jeff Naidu:

And by the way, TJ, you mentioned before we started the show or, actually, right at the beginning that teams take their foot off the gas. One of the reasons I like the Iowa team total is this, they don’t do that and they have one of the deepest benches in America. Okay, 44% of their minutes come from the bench. So, if you take out Murray and, let’s say, the McCaffery kid or Perkins, you can throw in Ulis or Toussaint or Rebraca or Murray’s brother or Connor McCaffery. All these kids can score the basketball, you’re not putting in the bench coach and the Gatorade guy. You’re putting in legitimate players that can score the basketball and that have experience. So, Joe Toussaint should start on this team and he doesn’t, he’s a bench player.

Jeff Naidu:

So, yeah, this is the prototypical team you want to play team totals with. And again, when you gamble on sports, if you make the plays that make sense, you can’t feel bad about what you do. And when we make plays in this show, that’s why I love this show because every person makes competent common sense decisions and, again, this is the kind of team you want to lay team totals in this price range with.

TJ Reeves:

So, unlike earlier in the show when we have no offense and they’re playing the unders, Kyle Hunter is officially and so too … Well, actually, Kyle’s on the game unofficially but Jeff is on the total officially, let’s lock it in and that’s the Iowa team total over the 92 for this matchup tonight at home where they’re a 30 plus point favorite in the game. We have a few moments left, time for some quick Q&A and I know there’s another prominent game or two that we want to talk about. I’m looking here at the comments of some of the viewers and some of the games they want. I will take one from Michael who’s watching and Michael says, we haven’t really talked about games in the West, Santa Clara-San Jose State tonight. I don’t know if either one of you have anything on that. Kyle or Jeff Naidu, about tonight, either one of you want to take that?

Jeff Naidu:

Well, look, San Jose State obviously is improved, they hired Tim Miles. They’ve been much better than in years past, they’ve been really good from three. I guess for me, I just don’t want to be the guy … Because look, I’ll back them tonight and they’ll be five for 29 from three, that’s how it will go. For whatever reason, when I need a team to make shots like this, they don’t. So, yeah. Santa Clara is a tough team. They’ve got a kid Josip Vrankic, down low, very good, very high-level player. I don’t know, I don’t have much in this game. I think San Jose is gimmicky which is how they play, I don’t think it’s sustainable.

TJ Reeves:

Santa Clara is the road favorite by six. Kyle, anything on that just real quick?

Kyle Hunter:

Yeah, Vrankic was out for six or eight games with mono for a good while there. He’s back, he played really well in his last game. I know PJ Pipes, quite the name there, but for Santa Clara, missed the last game. So, we’ll see if he plays tonight, I think he’s questionable. I think there are too many question marks in this game for me to be too excited about anything. My numbers would suggest over as a lane but, like Jeff said, San Jose State has shot way better than I expected from three point range. Are they going to keep shooting 41% from three? I don’t know, that’s hard to project so I’m going to pass on this one.

TJ Reeves:

All right. A huge Big East game for a couple of different reasons that will be going on tonight right in the wheelhouse of Jeff. I saw that Eagles shirt you have on. The Eagles, again, are playing a rescheduled, rare Tuesday night game but Villanova is also playing a home Big East game as well tonight with Xavier. Xavier in as an 11 and one team. Villanova still favored by five despite their struggles in the Big East and also losing a Baylor on the neutral floor. Do either one of you have a thought on what’s a very … I looked at that line again, you guys do this more than I and I was surprised that Villanova still a five-point favorite against an 11 and one Xavier team.

Jeff Naidu:

Well, remember, this is a home game. Villanova plays two locales. They either play at Wells Fargo Center where the Sixers play in South Philly which is not a home game, that is particularly far from Villanova, it’s a half hour away. Villanova has a court, though, on their campus, Finneran Pavilion, named after the great Brian Finneran who played for the Atlanta Falcons.

TJ Reeves:

There you go.

Jeff Naidu:

That is a home game, okay? So, this is a big time matchup. I’ve had a good feel on games like as these, these high profile games where, as TJ alluded to, the number doesn’t make sense. Xavier has been really good, they’re 11 and one, only lost two an undefeated Iowa State. Travis Steele’s team is flying high, they’re playing well and what do we know about Villanova? This has been the worst Villanovas that I’ve looked in a long time. They don’t look good, they’re struggling to score the basketball, they’re coming off two 20-point losses. When was the last time that that’s happened under the Jay Wright era? And yes, as TJ alluded to, they are five-point favorites tonight. The number tells you all you need to know in this game. I would be only on Villanova here, it’s that simple.

TJ Reeves:

Kyle?

Kyle Hunter:

That’s my lane as well. I would be on either Nova or the over in this game. I think Nova’s offense will look a lot better in this game. Xavier plays extremely fast, so a total of 136 is pretty low for Xavier game. We know Nova hasn’t scored much at all these last couple games, I think it’ll look different here tonight. So, I like Nova some as well and 70% of the bets are on Xavier. I think everybody’s going to want to bet Xavier here but I agree with the big man on this one.

TJ Reeves:

Hey, one other thing and we’ll get to one more question before we get out of here from the audience members that are watching it in the chat et cetera. Big man, I think we made mention of Villanova playing Creighton last Friday night in the Big East. It was a Creighton Friday night home game in the Big East. Have either one of you heard the ridiculous stat about Creighton at home on Friday night? I was not aware of this until I saw the game recap when somebody put it out there. Creighton has not lost a Friday night home game of any kind, of any kind, since Gerald Ford was the president in 1975. They have now won something like 33 Friday night home games in a row.

Jeff Naidu:

Well-

TJ Reeves:

That’s amazing. Some of it’s bad competition, I’m sure, through the years out of conference-

Kyle Hunter:

Yeah.

TJ Reeves:

Still, that’s a crazy, obscure stat on a Friday night and they clobbered Villanova on a Friday night for whatever it’s worth on their last game.

Jeff Naidu:

Well, look, Omaha and Nebraska on a Friday night, there’s literally nothing else to do. So, I guess they just decided, “Well, we’re going to play basketball and the whole town’s going to be here for it.” No, but Omaha has produced something. They produced Warren Buffett, one of the richest man on earth.

TJ Reeves:

Sure.

Jeff Naidu:

So, yeah. Look, that-

TJ Reeves:

Terence Crawford the boxer, yes.

Jeff Naidu:

Sure. Oh, yeah.

TJ Reeves:

And Creighton basketball with the McDermott’s.

Jeff Naidu:

Oh, yeah.

TJ Reeves:

And Doug McDermott in the NBA.

Jeff Naidu:

No, but shout out to you, that’s a great stat. I’d love to go back and look at how often they played. You mentioned it’s in the 30s, that’s hard to do no matter who you played. Remember-

TJ Reeves:

Two or three times it’s been a Big East home game in recent years, but some of it’s going to be non conference bad team, still that’s a crazy stat.

Jeff Naidu:

And remember-

TJ Reeves:

Back to 1975.

Jeff Naidu:

And Creighton, up until 10 years ago, wasn’t that high level of a basketball program. They’ve only come onto the scene in the last 10, 12, 13 years. So, yeah, that’s pretty high level. I didn’t hear about that, that’s a pretty good sell.

TJ Reeves:

Pretty crazy. All right, one more viewer, [Z Dallas 00:40:58], is watching. We thank you, Z Dallas. He says, “Does Davidson cover against Alabama tonight in that matchup in Tuscaloosa?” Any thought on a Tuesday night game right before Christmas for Alabama tonight? Guys, either one of you?

Jeff Naidu:

Well, look, Davidson, Bob McKillop is an offensive genius. Obviously, produced Stephen Curry, he put Stephen Curry on the map. He’s one of the smartest offensive people you’ll find in America and he’s a great-looking older man. You ever see Bob McKillop? Good-looking guy, got the big, white hair, he’s just good-looking guy. A good southern gentleman, if you will. But yeah, I think the over make sense here. Davidson’s always very good on the offensive end and scored 70 points or more in every game over the last month plus, it’s been a good team.

Jeff Naidu:

Now, this is a step up in play but the way Alabama plays, I know Davidson’s not a fast paced team but they’re efficient. Look at their numbers, they take care of the ball, they don’t turn you over, they don’t turn it over. This is a team that’s just really solid on the offensive end, I think both these teams probably get into the 70s. I’d lean over the number, Alabama seems to score against pretty much everybody.

TJ Reeves:

And let me clarify one thing, the game not in Tuscaloosa, this is actually in Birmingham at the renovated Legacy Arena. The Birmingham Jefferson Civic Center, the Legacy Arena. They’ve done multimillion dollar renovation there. So, Alabama playing a game in Birmingham against Davidson tonight. Kyle, did you have any thought about Alabama real quick before we’re done?

Kyle Hunter:

No real lean for me on this one. I did drop in the chat there just a minute ago, I agree with the viewer that is liking Nichols against Oregon State here tonight. So, Oregon State laying points, don’t want anything to do with the Oregon State laying points. They’re living off last year’s legacy, we know it’s a different year. So, I’ll lean with Nichols there.

Jeff Naidu:

Oregon State has lost-

TJ Reeves:

Yeah, Oregon State-

Jeff Naidu:

… 10 games in a row.

TJ Reeves:

Yeah, go ahead.

Jeff Naidu:

Ten games in a row.

TJ Reeves:

I was about to say, I thought it was nine-

Kyle Hunter:

Kyle Hunter Crazy.

TJ Reeves:

… it’s 10 straight.

Jeff Naidu:

Now, I will say quickly, I agree with the sentiment, I would be on Nichols. Nichols is actually a good team. I think they win their conference, they almost beat Wisconsin the other night. blew out Mississippi Valley. It’s important to understand, the schedule that Oregon State played is pretty good. Nichols might be up there with Portland State and Sanford as far as the level of competition but, yeah, if you’re going to give me three possessions, basically, with Nichols, I would be on them. Ten in a row is hard to do against anybody.

TJ Reeves:

And it’s incredible, just real quick, that Wayne Tinkle is the coach. Tinkle was feuding with the athletic director, they had a losing record late in the year, they won the final regular season game and then put together four games in four days at the PAC-12 Tournament in Las Vegas and won the tournament, surprisingly. Then, got in the NCAA Tournament in the COVID-crazy, compressed, only play in Indiana or Greater Indianapolis tournament and got on a run and got to the Elite Eight and Wayne Tinkle got a contract extension and he’s glad he did. And he’s glad that the acres dry because now, as Jeff was mentioning, they’re one and 10 a year later, what a difference a year makes. Ouch, babe.

TJ Reeves:

So, Nichols and Oregon State, another game to look at. We need to get out of here in a moment. Before we do that, let’s recap again by means of our best bets what our handicappers are on for tonight. I won’t go over all of it word for word. You can see what Jeff’s playing, what Kyle is playing. Jeff, in particular, on the Iowa team total and lots of unders tonight for Kyle on his three plays officially. Boys, we have come to the end for Tuesday, any final thoughts in closing before we are done? Kyle or Jeff, anything?

Jeff Naidu:

Well, I better get off here because I’m going to screw around and start talking about the Citadel and how I think they’ll bounce back tonight against Manhattan and I’m not going to do that. I’m done, I’m done with that.

TJ Reeves:

Have the Eagles ever played, in their history, a Tuesday game?

Jeff Naidu:

Yes, they had.

TJ Reeves:

I don’t know if they ever have. Did they have a makeup game at some point for Tuesdays?

Jeff Naidu:

I believe it was 2008, I think. I believe it was a snow game. I think it was the Joe Webb game. Joe Webb started for the Vikings that night.

TJ Reeves:

So, yeah, they have had to play a Tuesday game before.

Jeff Naidu:

Eleven years-

TJ Reeves:

So, it’s a Tuesday game day. He’s in the Eagles mindset in the mode because of the makeup with the COVID pause that the NFL put on for the Washington football team. He’s in the Eagles mode but he’s also going to have eyes all over college basketball. Kyle, anything in closing?

Kyle Hunter:

Yeah. Guys, I’ll be on the college football show tomorrow and Thursday but I won’t be back here until next week. So, Merry Christmas, Jeff, TJ, all the viewers out there, appreciate everybody at BetUS. I hope everybody has a good Christmas and we’ll see you next week.

Jeff Naidu:

Same to you.

TJ Reeves:

[inaudible 00:45:41]

Jeff Naidu:

And again, Kyle, one of the great people in the business. Love talking to him, he’s a great handicapper. And by the way, Joe Webb did beat the Eagles that night. Comes off the bench and beats the Eagles. I’m sure the Eagles will lose tonight, this is what they do.

TJ Reeves:

It’s Tuesday night football in that instance because of the makeup situation, good enough. Merry Christmas to you, Kyle, and your family. We appreciate you being here. Big man on campus, we look forward to having you back with us as well and we look forward to having all of you guys back on Wednesday. We’re here Wednesday and Thursday again but, for now, we are good. Good luck with all your plays in the games tonight as we say goodbye on the BetUS College Basketball Show for a Tuesday.

Kyle Hunter:

Thank you.

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