Ian Cameron:
St. Mary’s-Utah State. As you know, I was on Utah state. So was Jeff and I’m not going to bitch that we had the right side. It was a coin flip game. It could have went either way. Both teams played well. But in a spot at the end of the game where it’s a tie game, 58-58, both teams have played really good, tough tenacious basketball lines. You have a situation where a foul is called on Bean of Utah State with a second left in the game when all that was an incidental collision and an incidental contact play.
Just two guys battling for a loose ball on a rebound, and they call a foul on Bean in a tie game with a second to go. And that’s two free throws for St. Mary’s and sure enough, they get them both and win the game 60 to 58.
Ian Cameron:
This is just over officiating to a perfect example. That’s a play through right there. That’s a play on. You let that go. There was collision on both sides. Nobody really initiated it. It was a brutal call, and for a team like Utah State, where they have these opportunities against the St. Mary’s to really pad their resume, and you at least deny them the chance to play overtime with just an absolutely brutal call. It’s a time and score and situation feel. You got to have some kind of feel of the game if you’re a ref. Time and score and situation, that’s not the time to call just an incidental contact play like that.
Ian Cameron:
So really unfortunate for Utah State. And the late great Dave Molinsky, a legend in the business, always said the lower the conference, the worst the referees were because you got these conferences like the Southland Atlantic Sun, they’re picking up referees off the scrap heap. They’re looking to find any ref they can find to officiate some of these games and you get some really shoddy officiating, I think even in the lower level conferences, the really low mid-major, if you will, conferences.
Ian Cameron:
Just had to get that off my chest. A great game, though kind of marred. St Mary’s deserved the win. Hat’s off to them, but still a disappointing way to see that one end on a very, very dubious foul call in the final couple seconds. Matt, we’ll let you just briefly thoughts on anything from last night.
Matt Josephs:
Obviously some people say it was a bad card last night. I enjoyed watching that game. I was flipping between that and the football game. I took the night off, had a little bit of a rough Wednesday, so I took Thursday off because I didn’t really like a ton on the card. The Belmont game was fun. Those two teams are always interesting to watch and then the whole Asadullah thing before the game, but it was a sleepy card and we’ve got a better one tonight.
Ian Cameron:
Absolutely. Jeff, what did you think from last night?
Jeff Nadu:
I’ve always been under the thought that if you have a game that’s a coin flip game with a minute to go, unless there is a flagrant foul, an obvious foul, you do not make a call, especially to the road team. And again, whether we want to admit it or not, home teams generally have the advantage a little bit. It’s just a dreadful call to make and not to mention there was probably a foul on St. Mary’s right before that play, but throw in the fact, though, this is a game for Utah State. You held St. Mary’s in the first 10 minutes of the game to four total points. They just didn’t play real well in the second half. I don’t know what they did in the locker room.
Jeff Nadu:
They were also 3 for 15 from three. This is why any person that will tell you that stats mean everything, I wouldn’t really give them much thought. Utah State shoots 36% from three, but last night shot three for 15 from three, and had a shot to win the game on a wide, open three at the end and missed it. So, couple that with some shoddy officiating, it’s going to be hard for you to win. I like Matt, he mentioned Asadullah out for Lipscomb.
I thought that was just a thing for the last game where it was just a bad side. They were playing a low level team, a non-D1 team and he was out. He ended up not playing. It didn’t matter though. I mean, Belmont couldn’t miss last night from three. It was nice to see. We haven’t seen them shoot the ball that well. I think they were what? 17 for 40 from three. It was pretty impressive. So, I was enjoying seeing that and Lipscomb brought up the rear and gave us enough to get that one over the total, Ian.
Ian Cameron:
Yeah, absolutely. Good to see that for sure. Belmont on their best night can shoot the ball like that, and they certainly did last night. All right, before we get to Friday’s card, we’ll bring up the updated records for the show season to date.
Let’s see if we can get those up on the screen right now. There they are. Again, long season. I just want to make sure everybody’s aware of that. We ranted about that a little yesterday on the show that it’s a long season, there’s going to be ups and downs, smiles and frowns, but I guarantee you, if you tune into the BetUS College Basketball Show every day, you’re going to get quality info, quality analysis. The win will come, don’t you worry about that. And for me last night, a three in one night … actually you could say four in one if you bet the Liberty strong lean, they dismantled Missouri last night.
Ian Cameron:
Very disappointed I didn’t stick to my guns and lay the six for an official play, but three in one still on official plays for me. So good to see. We’ll see if we can keep it rolling here on Friday. And with that in mind, let’s get to the Friday college basketball slate. Of course, we’ve got our list of games that we sent in for this show. We’re going to start with Coppin State taking on Cornell. We’ve got Cornell seven and a half point favorites here, 159 1/2 the total in this game. Cornell and Canisius was a game that I leaned to the over in, and talk about … So many times on this shows there’s these games that I just stay off of making them an official play because I’m worried about the line move.
Ian Cameron:
And, I should have stuck to my guns with that one earlier this week, Cornell-Canisius. It flew over the total between those two teams. And I think this Cornell team with what we’ve seen offensively, they are a great, great offensive team. There’s no denying that. Matt Josephs is involved with this game. Matt, what do you think here with Coppin State and Cornell?
Matt Josephs:
Well, the last time I was on the show Monday, I gave out Cornell in the team total over for them and it hit. And, I’m going to do that once again here. Look, the over in this game was tantalizing when it first came out. It’s gone up four or five points since then, and I don’t even know necessarily … I like to play sometimes the first half over.
I don’t even know if I like that necessarily. So once again, I’m just going to isolate the unit I trust the most in and that’s Cornell’s offense. They have the quickest offensive possession time in the country at 13.8 seconds. They’re 15th in two point percentage, 108th in three point percentage. Their scoring over 80 pretty much every game, it feels like. There’s a couple games where they scored less than that, but I it’s an offense that you can trust.
Matt Josephs:
And you look at Coppin State, who’s on a perpetual road trip here and you look, they gave up 93 to St. Bonaventure, 97 to DePaul, 81 to Ryder, over 100 to Loyola Chicago. Their defense is terrible. One Juan Dixon’s bunch wants to get up and down a little bit as well. I think there will be plenty of points in this one, but the unit I trust, Cornell’s offense. So I’ll take the team total over for Cornell taking just that part of the game tonight.
Ian Cameron:
All right. And, it’s been working. Cornell team total over 83 1/2. Official play here for Matt. Jeff, did you have any thoughts on this game?
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah, he alluded to it. Cornell is just a breakneck pace. As he mentioned, possession, number one. You can’t get much better. They just want to run up and down. They want to get to the hoop as quick as possible. They’re very adept at getting to the foul line. Look, when you have a top 22 point offense, what that means generally is they’re running up and down. It’s very much cohesive with the pace.
They’re going to go up and down. This is a bad Coppin defense. Look, generally when you play a MEAC type of team, they are not going to control the tempo. And that’s not to say, Coppin wants to go quick as well, so this going to be a high scoring game. Whenever you deal with MEAC/SWAC teams, remember this, as Matt alluded to, Coppin’s already played 11 games on the season.
Jeff Nadu:
The reason for that is these teams like Coppin and the MEAC, they have to take buy games against high end teams because this is how their athletic program is funded. It’s that simple. The money they make from these games where they get crushed every night and travel up and down the east and west coast, that’s how they fund their athletic programs. It’s a sad thing, but that’s just how it is.
Jeff Nadu:
And yeah, by this point, they’re real tired. Remember they also put up a really good effort the other night. You got to wonder what they have left against Cornell here … up at St. Bonaventure the other night. I think it’s a good play. I think the full game over looks pretty nice here as well.
Ian Cameron:
All right. So as mentioned, Matt with an official play on Cornell, team total over 83 182 in this game.
Ian Cameron:
All right, moving on now, we’ve got UT Rio Grande Valley taking on Texas. The Longhorns, 25 1/2 point favorites here. 139 being the total in this one. Rio Grande Valley doesn’t mind playing fast. Will that offensive pace and style and tempo work against this Texas team? And, all Chris Beard’s teams do are usually lock you down at the defensive end. Interesting match up here between these two. This is a game and an official play on this game for Jeff Nadu, so Jeff we’ll turn it to you. What do you like here with Rio Grande Valley and Texas?
Jeff Nadu:
This was one of those games where I looked and just said to myself, “What do I see this score being in this game?” And, my first thought was 85-60. I thought to myself, well, Texas is going to score. Rio Grande Valley is heinous defensively frankly. Matt, Ian, look at this two point defense. This group is horrific. They are not going to stop anybody. Matt Figger took this job from Austin Peay, left Austin Peay to go to Rio Grande.
I’m not sure why, kind of an odd move south. You generally, as a coach, want to go north. He went south. I don’t understand going from the Ohio Valley to the southland, or the WAC, whatever UT Rio Grande’s in. I don’t get this.
Jeff Nadu:
But defensively, they’re horrific. They’re heinous. And, Texas’s offensive has been good, not great. We all know under Chris Beard, they’re generally going to play slow. They want to find their abilities on the defensive end but I don’t think they have any issue scoring tonight. I think they really look at this game with eyes wide open. They put up 92 against Houston Baptist. I’d expect a similar effort here.
I think this is the kind of game … this is like a game in football where a quarterback sees one of the worst defenses in the country and says, “Okay, stat padding time. I’m going to put up six on the board or seven on the board.” That’s how this is looking tonight I think for Texas at home on a Friday night. Let your hair down a little bit. They shouldn’t have any trouble scoring.
Jeff Nadu:
And then I look at Rio Grande Valley, and as you alluded to, Ian, they play with some pace. I think they’re going to just head down, try to get to line. That’s what they want to do. I think really in this game for me to hit an over here, I think if I get between 55 and 65 points, I think this game finds its way over the number at 139. I think this is an 85-60 type of game, even 85-58, something like that. I think Rio Grande Valley’s good enough offensively to put some points in the board.
They’re not completely lifeless and are going to score 45 here. You look at Rio Grande put up 80s against Illinois. Arizona, they didn’t put up any points, but they gave up 104 in that game. This team can score a little bit. They play with a good pace. I’m willing to think they can get 55, 60 in this game and get this game over the number. Texas shouldn’t have any trouble. They should really right their offensive struggle a bit recently in this one.
Ian Cameron:
All right, there we go. Matt, did you have any thoughts on this game?
Matt Josephs:
So somebody, Benjamin, brought it up in the chat. They wanted to know about Texas’s team total. I looked at it. It was on my list. I can’t do it, and look, Jeff just laid out something great, but then I could counter with 79-45 San Jose State. Cal Baptist, 68-40. There is a chance that Rio Grande gets to 50. Texas is really good defensively and that’s my worry here. My worry that Texas wants to run, they just don’t want to run. You look at their possession, 71 was the most against San Jose State, and they only won that game 79-45.
Matt Josephs:
So, I put that on my list, the Texas team total over, but I can’t do it. They haven’t done it enough this year for me to say, “Oh yeah, this is the type of team …” This is not Gonzaga who without reckless abandon will put up 100 on you in the snap of a finger. Texas has struggled a little bit to score offensively.
Matt Josephs:
Now I could be completely wrong. Jeff could be completely right. They score 90. They fix everything that’s wrong, but I need to see it before I could do it. I had it on my list. I have nothing official on this game. I hope Jeff’s right, but I just don’t trust Texas’ offense in a situation that they should get close to 90 or 100 points on.
Ian Cameron:
All right, so we will bring it up now on the screen for you as an official play. There it is. Jeff Nadu liking over 139 here between UT Rio Grande Valley and Texas.
Ian Cameron:
All right, who’s ready for a little Metro Atlantic basketball? The best conference in college basketball … I’m kidding. Manhattan taking on Sienna in a little Metro-Atlantic basketball. Sienna, three point home favorites here, 126 1/2 the total in this one. And, this is one of these situations I like to bet when conference play begins, especially in smaller conferences. You’ve got a team in Manhattan where you’re going to look at the record and say 5-2, pretty good team, right? And, you’re going to look at Sienna with their record, 2-5, not so good so far to begin the season … I should say 5-1 for Manhattan, 2-5 for Sienna.
Ian Cameron:
So, we’ve got to bet Manhattan here, right? Plus the points. No, not me. And I know Sienna’s taken their lumps. They definitely have, and look, Pickett and Camper were two terrific players for them last year that they’ve lost, and I think it’s taken them time and it’s taken Carm Maciariello some time to really get the rotations where he wants them to be. And, you couple that with the fact that this hasn’t just been a tough non-conference slate for Sienna, it’s been really tough. They’ve played Yale, a great Ivy league team. They played St. Bonaventure in their first game of the season. I know Georgetown’s way down in the Big East, but you’re still playing a Big East opponent there. I mean, this has been a really rigorous schedule to begin the season for Sienna.
Ian Cameron:
Whereas you look at what Manhattan’s done, and really it’s been feasting on the weak. Now they do have one impressive win against Liberty, who we just saw take apart Missouri last night. They beat Liberty 76-60 outright as 13 point dogs. But this is not still a great offensive team. It’s been that way really for years under Masiello here with Manhattan. They are a solid defensive team, but I think when you look at where these teams were prognosticated before the Metro-Atlantic season, I liked Sienna a lot more than Manhattan coming into the year. I think many people did.
And to me, this is a nice little buy low, sell high type of situation here where Sienna’s been losing games, getting blown out, not covering any point spreads, but doing so against a tough schedule so far this season. Now, they get to come back into conference play, their conference home opener, and take on Manhattan here, who I think are very much overvalued based on a very weak start to the season from a schedule standpoint.
Ian Cameron:
You also look at Sienna in terms of free throw shooting, 74%, little bit of an edge there over Manhattan. You look at recent series history. Man, Sienna’s won four straight head-to-head over Manhattan and all but one of those victories were by … actually all four of these victories for Sienna against Manhattan the last two years were by five points or more. That’ll get the job done here in this price range.
Ian Cameron:
I am making it official here, Sienna, minus three against Manhattan here. I like this situation here where Sienna’s faced a tough schedule, taken their lumps, but it’s gotten them, I think, ready for conference play here against this Manhattan team that really one good opponent, Liberty, played well in it, won the game but not a lot of great opponents. The strength of schedule difference is massive between these two teams going into this one.
Ian Cameron:
Matt has already told me before the show I want nothing to do with talk and Metro-Atlantic basketball. And look, I love betting it, but it is tough to watch and it’s definitely not a great conference by any stretch. Jeff, did you have any thoughts at all with Manhattan-Sienna?
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah. Ian, I got to give it to you. I’ve known you a long time. I’ve worked a lot of shows with you. Maybe outside of Donny Rightside, I’ve probably worked more shows with you than anyone. I respect you. I love you. I hate MAC basketball as well. I hate the other MAC, also. There a couple conferences I just don’t like.
Jeff Nadu:
I also will say, this game seems complete coin flippy to me. Just my thought. I’ll let you have it. There’s a couple of shots where … I like St. Peter’s. I’m always interested in that group. This is a tough one, though. Sienna is not where I think where we remember them from years past. Lost some real talent last year with Camper and Pickett moving on. I think they are the better team.
I think Platek is a good player. He played at North Carolina. Nick Hopkins was at Belmont, Stormo was out of Pepperdine. This is a decent team. I think it is a buy low. I’m not high on Manhattan. I never am. Always a bad offensive team generally, but Ian, I’ve got some breaking news for you. Mark Turgeon has resigned at Maryland. What a beautiful day for Maryland hoops. Everyone that roots for Maryland should be going out in the streets and celebrating. There should be a party-
Ian Cameron:
A Christmas gift come early.
Jeff Nadu:
Yes. There should be a party late into the night in College Park tonight. Shout out to Maryland. Shout out to Baltimore. Shout out to everybody in College Park. What a great day it is that he’s gone. How about that?
Ian Cameron:
Yeah, it is good news for Maryland basketball, I agree. Mark Turgeon out the door. Maybe that Virginia Tech loss the other night, which I cashed a ticket with the Hokies there. Maybe that was the last straw for him with Maryland. I like how they say resigned. Yeah, we’ll wait to hear the full story on that one. Sienna, minus three, against Manhattan, official play for me.
Ian Cameron:
Let’s move on now to the next Metro Atlantic matchup here. Another one of my games on the card, Monmouth-Niagara. We’ve got Monmouth two point favorites on the road here, 138 1/2 the total in this game. Monmouth has been off to a terrific start this season, perfect against the spread, 5-1 straight up, 6-0 against the spread. I actually really like what King Rice has at his disposal this year.
Ian Cameron:
George Papas, an outstanding senior guard for this team. Marcus McClary, brings in Shavar Reynolds from Seton Hall. Just what you would expect from a Monmouth team under King Rice; explosive offensively, play that press style, force a lot of turnovers and just play an exciting brand of basketball. They are definitely one of the exciting teams, and to be honest with you guys, I think Monmouth’s got the chance to be the second best team in the Metro Atlantic behind Iona. I don’t think anyone it’s catching Iona, but why not Monmouth? It’s wide open in this conference after Iona. Monmouth might be that second best team.
Ian Cameron:
You look at it for Niagara. I think they’re definitely making strides forward under Greg Paulus, who of course played under Coach K many, many years ago at Duke … has been the head coach now for a couple years here at Niagara. He’s got some good players to work with, but again, this is another situation where Monmouth’s had a little bit of a slight strength of schedule edge early in the season. They’ve covered every number. They’ve clearly been undervalued. And, you see what Monmouth was able to do against Cincinnati over the weekend. A very quality win for King Rice’s group.
Ian Cameron:
I just think in a game where all you got to do is basically get them to win the game, you cash your ticket, I think they’re capable of getting the job done here, Monmouth. I think Niagara’s on the improve, but I don’t think they’re quite at the level where Monmouth is right now. And again, Monmouth 6-0 against the spread, and with every team in college basketball or any sportsbook for that matter, when a team’s on a point spread streak, I either ride the streak or I don’t bet the game.
Ian Cameron:
I’m riding in the streak here tonight with Monmouth. And by the way, we talk about free throws, free throws, free throws. It doesn’t get much better than Monmouth’s 84.8% from the free throw line. Man, that’s going to help you cover numbers, especially in competitively lined games such as this one. So, I’m going to lay the small number on the road with Monmouth. And I will mention one thing, the line’s gone toward Monmouth.
Usually with these small home dogs, when you see a small road favorite and the money comes in on the home dog, you get a little leery about taking the road favorite. But, the money has come in here on Monmouth and I agree they’re the better of these two teams-
Jeff Nadu:
If you get a whistle happy ref, this might be a high scoring game. Look, if they’re both making some threes as well, and both these teams are very good from the three point line … I know that Niagara coming from a pace perspective, it’s not great for and over, but again, these are hard totals to play because you’re so reliant on the three. But yeah, I actually like Monmouth. I agree with you on this one. I think Monmouth’s a good team. They’re well coached and Reynolds is the best player on the floor. It’s that simple.
Ian Cameron:
Yeah, absolutely. Terrific addition to this team from Seton Hall for King Rice on this Monmouth squad. So, Monmouth minus two. We’re going to lock that in as an official play. Monmouth minus two against Niagara.
Ian Cameron:
All right, the final game of the Metro Atlantic portion of this Friday show, St. Peters taking on Quinnipiac. We’ve got St. Peters four point favorites here on the road, 135 1/2 the total in this game. And I’m indeed looking at the St. Peter’s side here in this one, minus the four. Again, this is going to be a familiar theme with me. Again, we have another strength of schedule disparity a little bit between these two teams.
We’ve got St Peter’s coming into this game, as the team that usually is going to play solid defense. Not so far based on the stats that they’ve accumulated to this point, but a lot of that being schedule related when you look at the teams they’ve played. They’ve played Providence, they’ve played St. John’s, they’ve played VCU.
Ian Cameron:
They’ve played some solid opponents here early on in the season. Three of those four teams, pretty solid basketball teams. VCU offensively, not so much but excellent defensively. So, they’ve been tested here, St. Peter’s, early on, and here’s Quinnipiac coming into this game. Man, you’re hard pressed to find quality opponents here. New Hampshire, Brown, Central Connecticut State, one of the worst teams imaginable, Holy Cross, Western New England … that’s who we’re dealing with here.
Really the one quality opponent for Quinnipiac was their opener against Maryland who have underachieved so far. They lose that game by 14. So, I think there’s some proving ground here for Quinnipiac in this game against St Peter’s, and I think when you look at St. Peter’s, this has been a team that’s been really solid in Metro Atlantic for many years going back to when John Dunn was the head co coach of this program years ago.
Ian Cameron:
And I think here in this matchup, the money coming in on St Peter’s is right. I’ve got them the better squad. Now I laid two and a half. It’s up to four. I’m going to keep the play at four, though, as an official play. When you look at it, I think there’s definitely an advantage. Now, Baker Dunleavy, I don’t mind him as a coach whatsoever, but I just think they’re not going to be able to score easily tonight here against this St Peter’s team and definitely would give the edge to the St. Peter’s Peacocks.
Ian Cameron:
I’d put St. Peter’s in that stratosphere with Monmouth, if Sienna can get their act together, teams that are in that second group of quality foes, I think, in this conference after Iona. And I think St Peter’s is right there with those teams. And of course, they’ve got some good guard play with Matthew Lee and Doug Edert leading them there. So, I think for Shaheen Holloway’s team, they’re just a little bit better team right now, played a tougher schedule. We’ll lay the four with St. Peter’s tonight, the Peacocks against Quinnipiac.
Ian Cameron:
Jeff, did you have any take on this game?
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah, you made a comment about Sienna putting their hat in the MAC pool there just playing better, and we haven’t seen much of St. Peter’s. I don’t believe … This schedule, there’s nothing wrong with being 1-3. I almost liken it to football with Western Kentucky, who started out the season I think 1-4, 1-5. Tonight they’re playing for the title in Conference USA. So, you got to look at who your team is playing. Western Kentucky was playing Big 10 teams and Army and all these tough teams.
Jeff Nadu:
Same with St. Peter’s. They also haven’t played much. They were off for 10 days between November 13th and November 23rd. By the way, guys, I want to quickly ask, and this is something that I’m fascinated by. College football, can you guys think of one game that was canceled this year? And how many players do you have on a college football team-
Ian Cameron:
USC Cal. That was it.
Jeff Nadu:
Okay, maybe one, but it’s like why is this so difficult for college basketball to avoid COVID cases? They have made way less people to worry about. I don’t know why this is so difficult. I don’t know why St. Peter’s was off … I think it was coronavirus, but just odd, an odd thing. But either way, I think St Peter’s is better than Quinnipiac. I agree with you. You have to expect low scoring when St Peter’s plays. There’s not a lot of room for error with them when you’re laying four or five points. But yeah, I think you have a couple of games where the teams are better than their records are to indicate. I get it.
Ian Cameron:
Yeah, and the funny thing is the Sienna game, this game, the team with the worst record, everybody thinks they’re garbage. They’ve struggled against the spread. They’ve taken the money in both games, sienna and St. Peter’s. So there’s some opinion there in the betting markets that these teams are undervalued based on taking their lumps so far in the first month of the season. Just my take on what you said, Jeff, about more COVID issues with college basketball picks.
The colder weather is here now, people are staying inside a lot more. I’m not a scientist or doctor, I’m not going to pretend I am, but that’s just my two cents on it. I think that you’ve got more people inside. You’re going to get our transmission and more contractions of the cases. Just my opinion, but nevertheless, we’ll move on here. We’re college basketball betters and fans and cappers. We’re not doctors.
Ian Cameron:
So, let’s move on. Let’s get back to the game action here. New Orleans and Louisiana next up on the slate of games here on our show today, I’m being told it’s not right to say UL Lafayette anymore from certain people so I’m just going to say the Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns here, 11 1/2 favorites in this game. 151 1/2 being the total in this one. This is a game for Matt Josephs on this Friday slate. Matt, what do you like here with the Privateers and the Ragin’ Cajuns?
Matt Josephs:
Yeah, finally we get to some interesting basketball after all that Metro Atlantic talk. I’m just kidding. That was rude. Very rude, but that’s the feeling in me. So this is an interesting game in that look, both of these teams play with a ton of pace and their offenses aren’t exactly great. But I’m going to play on the over here thinking that Louisiana’s going to wake up. If you look at what they’ve done … Hell, I was on the over in that Indiana game and they scored what was it? Nine points by halftime. It was a brutal display.
You give some credit to Indiana’s defense, but they also couldn’t shoot it straight. And if you look, for those who are familiar with KenPom, there’s a lot of red when you look at Louisiana’s offense, but I’m going to take the chance that here, look, they’ve got a looser game here.
Matt Josephs:
It’s not like New Orleans’s defense is any good. The one worry is last year, these two teams met, they had a lot of the same rosters and both of them would’ve gone under this number. I’m going to take a shot here and say that the looser play means that both of these teams are going to play better. Louisiana’s got a lot of talent. It’s just they haven’t shot straight lately. You look at New Orleans, this is another team in that Southland conference that just wants to get up and down a little bit.
Their offense isn’t bad. There’s some green there, which I always love to see, the green on the offensive side and the red on the defensive side. So the numbers tell me that this is not going to be an over game, but I’m playing a hunch here that a looser game with some pace and plenty of opportunities, the score means there will be plenty of points in this one, so I am taking the over.
Ian Cameron:
All right. Jeff, did you have any thoughts on New Orleans and Louisiana?
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah, I’ve always been in the … Look, a lot of these games that people are talking about, Ian’s games, even this game, and Matt’s expecting that maybe Louisiana’s better than what they’ve looked like. And look, remember, it’s not like they had trouble scoring against Marshall or Jackson State. They were able to move up and down. It was just that Indiana game, nothing wrong with that.
The problem is here I was told a long time ago, just because you have pace doesn’t mean always that you’ll have an over. You need everything to work. You need people to make shots ultimately. I don’t disagree though. I think he’s right with it opening up and it just being a more complimentary game to how these teams want to play.
Jeff Nadu:
And, I would expect after this game, Louisiana’s offensive numbers look a lot better. I am a little concerned when a team’s main course of offense is getting to the free throw line, because I think you always have to worry about what the ref’s going to do, but yeah, I think this is a lot more on the wavelength of both these teams. I don’t have any issue with it. Hopefully Matt gets the job done here.
Ian Cameron:
There you go. We’ll make it official now. Matt Josephs locking it in over 151 1/2 New Orleans and Louisiana as an official play here on the Friday show. It’s actually my concern with the Furman-Charleston. It’s not a game on our slate, but what I was concerned about because Charleston’s played fast but they’ve had some games where they’ve been a little inefficient offensively under Pat Kelsey who came over there from Winthrop. So, that’s something for that game that I was concerned about with the over, although you should see a lot of points in that one too.
Ian Cameron:
All right, next up, let’s keep it rolling. Big 10. This should be an interesting one. We’ve got the Iowa Hawkeyes and the Purdue Boilermakers. Presidents of the Fran McCaffery fan club, Jeff and I are not. Purdue 13 point home favorites in this game. 160 being the total in this one. You’re not going to see me tonight, next week, next month, not anytime soon unless I’ve got a damn good reason to step in front of this Purdue team.
They have been absolutely phenomenal. Best offensive team in the Matt Painter era. I believe that. I think it could be even better than when Vincent and Carsen Edwards and Isaac Hoss were there a few years ago and they had a pretty good offensive team when they went to the Sweet 16. I think this Purdue team’s even better offensively than that.
Ian Cameron:
They have the guard play led by Jade Ivey. They’ve got Zach Edey, the cyclops from Toronto, just down the road from me, 7’4. Behemoth. They’ve got terrific complimentary players as well. They still have that defensive and rebounding tenacity that you usually see under Purdue. Just a great basketball team. Credit to Iowa though, for a great performance against Virginia earlier this week. Can they bring another step up game here against this Purdue team?
Ian Cameron:
Jeff, if this is indeed one of your games, Iowa-Purdue, a great matchup tonight in the Big 10.
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah, I know Matt’s a big total guy. He obviously can’t remember every single team over the last five years. At least just try to remember the best offensive teams … I would’ve to say the best offensive team I’ve seen in five years is that 2018 Villanova team. In fact, I believe they had the highest offensive efficiency ever in the KenPom rating. I don’t think Purdue’s that far off from those teams and some of the Gonzaga teams we’ve seen recently.
This offense is absolutely terrific. I don’t know really how else to say it. They’re getting 80 or more in every game so far, and it’s not like they’ve not played anybody. They’ve played some really good basketball teams. They’re just so hard to beat. I mean, Jaden Ivey, I think is a top 10 pick by the end of the season.
Jeff Nadu:
Williams, Edey. The other night, I think Trevion Williams had eight points. They still scored 93. They have sharpshooters everywhere. They have a deep bench. Offensively, they’re just going to score against everybody. And, as I’ve talked about time and time and time again, Fran McCaffery’s teams are great over teams. They play with a lot of pace and they don’t defend, and that’s no different this year and that’s no different than any other year. They don’t defend. It’s just a problem. They’re never going to get any better. They’re never going to be better. It’s just how it is.
Jeff Nadu:
When you look at Iowa, I’ve been happy with this team too. I played a couple team total overs for them. They’re not Purdue offensive, but they’re not far behind. They’re very good. Both these teams take care of the ball. They get to the line, they make their free throws.
Jeff Nadu:
There’s just too much offensive talent on this court for me to take an under here. Just not going to happen. I know you’ll always see sharp money come in and take these 160s under because again, you need a lot to go your way here, but I look at this game just a lot like I think we should look at it. I think it’s a high scoring game. You look at Iowa’s last game … Matt knows all about pace. They got Virginia to play a 75-74 game. That’s almost impossible.
It doesn’t happen much. They can make anyone play their pace, and I think if you’re Painter, I know he’ll try to say, “We don’t want to play up and down,” yeah, you do because it’s a layup line against Iowa. So, I’m going over. I played 158 1/2. I’m going over the number here.
Ian Cameron:
All right, good stuff. I want to make this clear the rest of the season on this show, when I say I have a lean on a game and I have a lean to Purdue laying the points and the over, these are actually bets for me. These are wagers, but these are smaller wagers. They are bets. They’re not official plays for record keeping purposes on this show, but they are bets for me, just like Liberty last night was a bet for me, even though it was a lean on the show.
Lean for me to Purdue and over means I did bet both. I did lay the 12 1/2 and I did bet the over, and I believe 159 is what I got on this total, so I’m right there in lockstep with Jeff in terms of the total. I think it’s going to be a high scoring game. And like I said, Iowa still shaky defensively, great offensively, of course, and Purdue, like I said, best offensive team for them in years.
Ian Cameron:
Matt, any thoughts here on the Big 10 match up?
Matt Josephs:
Well, I’ll just say one thing. It’s funny because Jeff says that Iowa got Virginia to play a 75-74 game, yet it was still a 57 possession game. It’s pretty funny. So it was played at Virginia’s pace, but yet it was Iowa’s score, which is the fascinating part of that game. I mean, once again, and it’s something I’ve talked about when I’ve been on the show before, the total’s just too high for me. It’s going to go over.
I think it does. As Jeff talked about, you need a lot of things to go right. So I actually think the funnier thing is I might go with the more deadly thing. Now this is not an official play. It’s not a lean. It’s nothing. It’s just my opinion. This seems like a good first half over here. I mean, you’re seeing two teams that are playing pretty well.
Matt Josephs:
There’s going to be some pace. You might see some points. I don’t have the numbers in front of me, but these two have to be in the top 20, top 25 in first half offense. And once again, when you look at the first half numbers, a lot of times they are less than half of the game total. Now of course, the reason because that is the last minute of the first half is not the foul fest. You don’t get that extra stuff. And quite often, you may only get one or two possessions if teams are trying to run the clock out, although these two don’t seem like the type.
Matt Josephs:
So if I was to play anything, which I’m not officially, I would look at the first half over. You get a more manageable number, and if the pace that everybody expects to be played gets played, you get your number in the first half. You don’t even have to worry if there’s a second half that’s very slow. So, if I was to play anything, I’d look at the first half over here and hope both teams come out firing right away.
Ian Cameron:
All right, there we go. So we will make it official. Now you’ll see it on the … actually this game, I believe we took it off official status. Yes we did because of the line move. So, it’s a lean to the over for Jeff and it’s leans to Purdue-
Jeff Nadu:
I will say, again, this is … I don’t know if we need to talk about this or whatever, but listen. We send the games in at 11:00. Unfortunately we have two hours where the line can move. I don’t get that, but it is what it is. I played 158 1/2.
I’m sure people will say, “Why not just play it at 160?” Because I don’t play the worst numbers. It’s just that simple. It’s just how it goes. I think it probably hits 160, but I want to play the best numbers and I’m not a big fan of … When I play a number, it’s what I played it at. I don’t want to think about what it might be down the road. It probably should get there, but I played 158 1/2.
Ian Cameron:
I’ve been victimized by it, Jeff, where I’ve had games I’ve kept as official plays that I’ve taken at a worse number on the show and they fall short. But then, there’s instances I keep games off the official play sheet and they still cover with even the worst of the numbers. So it’s just one of those you got to play it situation to situation, game to game. That’s just the way it is. No doubt.
Ian Cameron:
All right, we’ll wrap it up. Final game on our list of games that we’ll break down … And, remember Q&A right after this so get your questions in right now. We’ve got I believe 93 live viewers. Hit the like button. Make sure you do that. It helps us out here at BetUS. For sure, hit that like button if you’re enjoying the show and the information, which we’re providing for you on this Friday college basketball card.
Ian Cameron:
We’ve got VMI, the Cadets, taking on the Portland Pilots. Portland, five point home favorites. 146 1/2 the total. And, Jeff mentioned what he bet a certain game at, and it was better than what we’re getting right now and I’m going to say it too. I’ve got Portland minus three in this game, and I’m sticking with it as an official play here at Portland minus five.
Ian Cameron:
One of the most underrated coaching hires in the off season was Portland. A dumpster fire program for years, no question about that. Just absolutely dreadful they were the last couple of seasons, but I really loved the hire of a guy that had a great run at Eastern Washington, saw what they did last year in the term. It’s Shantay Legans, bringing him over here and already this team has shown improvement. 7-2. The only losses, Montana State on a neutral floor and a road loss to Arizona State in their first game. I like what I’ve seen from the Pilots so far this year.
Ian Cameron:
They’ve been totally undervalued. They enter this game on a 5-0 ATS streak going into this match up. And for VMI, it’s a team that’s not only struggled to win games and cover numbers, they’ve been dreadful. Haven’t covered a point spread. They got a push in their first game of the year against Presbyterian in an overtime loss. That’s it. 0-4 against the spread since then. It’s an awkward scheduling spot, an awkward travel spot. You got to go now from Virginia all the way to the west coast here in this game, that’s not beneficial whatsoever.
Ian Cameron:
Portland has already brought that uptempo offensive minded style of play that Legans was known for with Eastern Washington the last couple of years. This team’s offensive game has improved significantly 76.7 points per game, 46.3% field goal percentage so far this year, and I think that’s good news for them. And again, we talk about when you back teams, are they good free throw shooting teams?
Ian Cameron:
Portland is. 80.9% for Portland from the free throw line. And I just think right now, not only the better are these two teams at the moment, but certainly at home, short number against a team in a little bit of an awkward travel scheduling spot, a struggling VMI team, a team that you look at them offensively, they’ve been scatter shot up and down. And also look at the schedule here for VMI, Keystone Giants, Marist, Presbyterian twice, Central Arkansas, New Orleans, Clarks Summit Defenders in their last game for VMI. This is not the who’s who of great basketball teams so I think it sets up well for Portland.
Ian Cameron:
We’re making it official here. Portland minus five against VMI. This is a team that’s going to make me some money in west coast conference play. I’m not going to make it sound like they’re a top tier team yet in this conference. He’s got a lot of work ahead of him, but you watch, he’s going to be building and building and building this Portland team. I know it’s a conference … it’s a lot better now, the west coast conference than it’s been in years past, but Portland will start to improve. And they’ll, I think, be a point spread profit producer as well when conference play gets underway.
Ian Cameron:
Any thoughts from both of you guys on this? We’ll start with Jeff … go ahead, first.
Jeff Nadu:
Ian. I always agree with you. I try to be on the same side. You’re a smart guy, but, Ian, if you’re going to talk how bad VMI’s schedule is, you’re going to have to talk about how bad Portland’s is. It’s worse than VMI’s schedule wise. Listen, Ian, at the end of the day, I probably know more about VMI than any person. I’ve watched this team. I don’t know why … a lot of times I have a weird obsession with Dan Earl.
I think he’s a good coach. This team was very good against the number last year, and you’re right, they haven’t been good this year, but you know what they have been good at? Keeping games close. And, I think you made good points about Shantay Legans. I think he’s a great coach, but I also will say I think if you like Portland, I think it’s because of the spot, right?
Jeff Nadu:
I mean, I’m not real impressed with what they’ve done. They haven’t played anybody … played a couple of really just bad, bad basketball teams. One thing I could say about VMI, they keep everything close. They’re very much three point reliant, which is tough to back long term just because you look at they’re 203 in the country in three point percentage, that’s why they’ve not played well in eight games because their threes haven’t fell. But, they can keep games close. I actually like their team. I don’t like going against you or Matt for that matter, but if I could see maybe a six here, I might consider taking a shot.
Jeff Nadu:
It is a rough spot. I don’t know why if your VMI, why you would schedule these games. I don’t quite understand this at all. Why are you going out to Portland and Seattle? What’s the point of this? Just stay close to home. Why not play teams in Virginia? What’s the point of going to the west coast? It’s just odd. You’re not a SWAC or MEAC team. You don’t need to do this stuff. Yeah, I’d go the other way but I’ll root for you. Shantay Legans is a good coach.
Ian Cameron:
All right, nothing wrong with that. We got to have some disagreement every now and then. It makes the show more interesting. Matt, did you have any take or thoughts on this game?
Matt Josephs:
I’ve interviewed Dan Earl on my radio show and I watch a lot of VMI basketball. I don’t know if I’ve watched as much as you, but I mean, I agree with you. I think if this thing keeps going up, I’m on VMI 100% here. I think the Keydets have played … Look, if there’s ever a school that I’m not worried about weird spots and things like that, it’s a military school.
They get up at 4:00 in the morning and do calisthenics and all that stuff they do. What the hell do they care if they’re flying out west? Portland’s been okay for me so far. I think I’ve been involved in one or two of their games, but as you said, VMI just keeps things close. They’re not longer playing Duggar ball. They’re no longer running up and down playing no defense.
Matt Josephs:
Their defense is okay. They’re 31st at three point defense. Now, granted Portland’s not a three point shooting team so that’s not going to matter here, but Curfman’s good. They’ve got some good people on this team, and when Bonham’s out there, he’s another guy that I think can add some talent. So if this thing keeps going up, I’ll be on VMI. It’s been over 40 years since their last trip out west.
I don’t like it at this current number, but if I can bleed another point or two out of this thing, which I don’t think I will, I’d be interested in VMI. They don’t care about where the hell they play the games. They’re in the military. What the hell do they care?
Jeff Nadu:
Good point.
Ian Cameron:
Yeah, it’s true. The body clock situation may not affect them as much as the non-service academy or military schools. No question. Portland minus five with a little bit of a disagreement, but that’s all right, from Jeff and Matt. It’s good. It’s good for the show. Portland minus five for me is an official play.
Ian Cameron:
All right, it’s time for Q&A next up here on this to wrap up the show as always. First question, would you take New Mexico State versus UTEP? And the answer is yes, I would lean New Mexico State here in this game. I find they rely too much, UTEP … They not a good offensive team to begin with. They rely a lot here on Bieniemy for them to score the basketball for them, and if he’s not going, who else can you rely on for UTEP.
These teams actually met earlier this season. UTEP was down big in that game, and they went on a huge run to make that game closer than it was, but New Mexico State was clearly the better team that day. So, I know it’s a little revenge situation here, but I think New Mexico State’s the better squad here. I trust them more at both ends of the floor, so it would be New Mexico State for me at a near pick them here. Jeff, did you have any thoughts there?
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah. I have to figure New Mexico State and Chris Jans haven’t been very happy with their defensive numbers really against top tier competition. They gave up 52 points in the second half against New Mexico the other night. Not ideal. You’re going to play a team tonight, against Joe Golden and UTEP, they’re obviously I think a little bit different from a standpoint of I think both these teams have played exactly how they want to play defensively.
I think this game could be a lot lower scoring than we might think. I think the under might look pretty good here. If you’re going to give me a tossup game, I’ll trust New Mexico State. I just think they’re a better team, but I got to be honest, guys, and I’ll be real frank, there’s been a lot of flips between good teams.
Jeff Nadu:
Last night, Utah State-St. Mary’s, Florida-Oklahoma, all these different games, and going with the better team in the case of recently for me, it hasn’t worked. For whatever reason, I faded home teams and in flips, I want a home team. So, I avoided this game. I like both coaches here a lot and I like both these programs. I think it’s a tough game. I’d probably lean under though. I think it’s a 67-64 type of game, something like that. I don’t think either get to 70 here.
Ian Cameron:
All right, Matt, did you have anything here?
Matt Josephs:
Weird scheduling spot in between the two games against New Mexico. And obviously, look, there are some look ahead spots in college basketball. I wouldn’t think this is one because obviously if you’re playing a team twice, there’s at least a small part that there is a rivalry here. And, you look at that first game you mentioned and it could have actually been a little bit bigger because New Mexico State wasn’t hitting their free throws and they’re a good free shooting team.
When you take a look at those first match ups, you look at outliers, you look at things … were there any injuries? Were there any differences? And, one of the outliers that came out to me was New Mexico State’s a good free throw shooting team and they went 17 to 30 in that game.
Matt Josephs:
So, you adjust it a little bit. And, you can do it with both teams really. UTEP didn’t shoot threes very well and for part of this year … Well actually they’re actually worse. They actually shot better than their number is so that’s interesting. But, I agree with Jeff. I didn’t really play anything in this game. I like both coaches. I like UTEP. I know I’ll be on them a little bit later on. It was shocking to see New Mexico State give up 100 to New Mexico. I thought that was interesting.
Matt Josephs:
I do agree that we’re going to see a better effort on that end because that’s just not New Mexico State basketball. They don’t give up that many points normally.
Ian Cameron:
All right. The next game, I think we’ve got to skip it. I don’t see any line on Carver versus North Carolina A&T. I just don’t even see that line-
Jeff Nadu:
Who asked about that game?
Ian Cameron:
Yeah, you’re really digging deep there but pre-season-
Jeff Nadu:
By the way, Carver College, I believe they’ve lost 42 or 43 games in a row. I believe. Don’t quote me on that. It’s pretty bad. Who asked about that? That’s funny.
Ian Cameron:
Someone in our chat did.
Jeff Nadu:
I think that was a joke.
Ian Cameron:
Yeah, maybe. It might be. There’s no line on that. We move on. If it was a joke, I’m laughing with you. All right, Pitt and Virginia. I’ll throw this to Jeff. Jeff almost got in on this game for an official play on this show. Jeff, your thoughts on Pitt and Virginia?
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah. I mean, I guess this really just is whenever Virginia plays, I think they cover this game, but it’s hard because the offense I’m not in love with. I think Virginia is solid. I like their defense, but I don’t know. We know I hate Pitt, so I don’t know. I just didn’t get the right number.
I was hoping to get maybe 10 1/2, 11 1/2. Just didn’t really go where I wanted it to. And look, a lot of people will … There’s a guy that’s in our chat whining because we’re not talking about Kansas. Look, we just talked about Purdue-Iowa, okay? We’re not talking about games we don’t like. If we don’t like it, we don’t like it, man. I don’t know what you want from us. But yeah, I didn’t like this game. [inaudible 00:48:11] it.
Ian Cameron:
All right. Matt’s a good guy to ask when it comes to anything Virginia and any team in Virginia. What do you think of the Cavs tonight against the Pitt Panthers?
Matt Josephs:
I mean, this game could be 13-nothing. Pittsburgh’s offense is atrocious and Virginia’s offense is atrocious and you’re going to see 55 possessions in this game. Virginia’s that much better than Pitt, but I don’t want to lay that many points. I mean, assuming this game is … let’s take the average … 59.8 possessions, you’re getting seven possessions worth of points already, and then there’s 52 possessions left and Virginia’s not going to hit on every possession. So, by the numbers Pitt becomes a play, but I will never back Pitt, especially the way this roster is. It’s too big of a number in such a small game that I can’t get involved in this one.
Jeff Nadu:
And, I will say also a lot of time people say, “Well, why not bet Pitt’s team total under?” It’s like, “Yeah. It’s 49 1/2.” It’s not ideal, and look, Pitt is a very slow tempo as well. It could hit but you’ve got to have everything go right before you hit an under 49 1/2. There’s not a lot of margin for error in this game, so I didn’t play it.
Ian Cameron:
Yeah, for those that are wondering, I’ll throw out something on Kansas-St. John’s. I really want to take St. John’s here plus seven. I think Kansas is … but I lean that way. I think Kansas is a little over-valued. They’ve lost to the number three straight. They had the lost to Dayton on the neutral floor. They didn’t cover against Iona or North Texas, and I think from a match up standpoint, Julian Champagnie, Posh Alexander, great players for St. John’s.
I think Soriano down low can really battle David McCormick, the big man for Kansas pretty well in this game. I don’t think it’s terrible for St. John. They’re flighty at times. They don’t always step up. The best game they’ve had on their schedule this year was Indiana at Assembly Hall. They lost that game by two, and Kansas will be tougher than Indiana, but I don’t want to lay seven with the Jayhawks here in this spot. It would be a St. John’s lean for me in this one at plus seven.
Ian Cameron:
All right, final question from the chat. Houston and Bryant. So, I’ve trusted Bryant before against not upper echelon teams, but teams that … Clemson and Rhode Island and man, they got absolutely steam rolled in both games. I don’t know if I’m going back to the well with Bryant here today or tonight against Houston. So, it’s not a game I have a strong thought on. Of course, Bryant likes overs, Houston will slow it down. It’s a little bit of a clash in terms of pace as well.
Ian Cameron:
Jeff, did you have any thoughts, Bryant and Houston?
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah, I always have enjoyed Jared Grasso. I like what they do there, but I don’t think they’re very good against upper tier competition. I mean, they let 83 go by on Rhode Island and Bethune-Cookman beat this team. This is a real rough matchup for Bryant. Houston is elite defensively and Bryant can’t stop anybody. I will say this individual that asked about this game has been very critical of me and all of us here at our show. I will say, you’ve got to be nicer, my friend. We’re here to help you.
If you don’t like our picks, you’re welcome to play the other side or play what you want. I will be nice and answer your questions, but you got to be a little kinder, my friend. I’m kinder. You need to be kinder. Don’t be mean.
Ian Cameron:
That’s right. That’s what we do. Hey, whether we win or lose with the picks, we always aim to win. And I think we’re going to long term here on this show, and it’s going to get better as we go along-
Jeff Nadu:
[crosstalk 00:51:28] But listen, you don’t hear from this guy when we go 3-0 or 3-1.
Ian Cameron:
Yup. The info and analysis is from everybody, from me, from Jeff, from Matt, Kyle Hunter’s great with college basketball as well. The analysis you’re going to get from the four of us throughout the season is worth tuning in for every day right here in my opinion. Matt, did you have anything on Bryant and Houston?
Matt Josephs:
Houston team total over. Bryant gives up 35.7% offensive rebounds. That means Houston’s going to get every rebound in this game. If they miss it, they’re just going to play volleyball and just get the rebound, so I could see Houston scoring on, I don’t know, 50 … Obviously, I’m making a joke here but 70% of their possessions. I took a shot on the Houston team total over. I didn’t love it enough to give it out as a giant official play on this thing, but for me personally, I took a shot at the team total over. It was 81 1/2, I believe. Houston just did that. They scored 99 on Northwestern State.
Matt Josephs:
The only reason why it’s not an official play is because their pace, they’re not running, they’re not looking to do it but I just can’t see how they don’t score on almost every possession because they’re going to get almost every rebound here.
Ian Cameron:
Yeah, it’s definitely a gulf of difference between these … It’s no hyperbole saying that. There’s a gulf of difference between these two teams defensively. There’s no question about that, so Houston might be able to get there tonight. We thank everybody for the questions and that’s going to wrap up the show. Before that, of course, we’ll recap what we’re on tonight for best bets official plays on this show.
Jeff likes UT Rio Grande Valley Texas over 139. And, I have four plays just like last night, Sienna minus three, Monmouth minus two, St Peter’s minus four and Portland minus five. And Matt Josephs’ liking the Cornell team total, over 83 1/2, and New Orleans Louisiana over 151 1/2.
Ian Cameron:
That’s a wrap for the week for this college basketball show right here with BetUS. We appreciate everybody tuning in. Hit that like button on the way out if you haven’t done it already. Have a great weekend. Enjoy the games, and good luck. And, we will be back on Monday, 1:00 pm eastern with another edition of the College Basketball Show right here on BetUS.
Ian Cameron:
Have a great weekend, enjoy the games and good luck.
