March Madness Final Four | NCAA Tournament Picks and Predictions [April 1st]
March Madness Final Four
TJ:
Well, hello there and happy Friday. We are ready to go with the 2022 Final Four. The NCAA Tournament about to culminate in the Big Easy, New Orleans, Louisiana. I am merely the somewhat capable host. The handicappers are here. The big man on campus, Jeff Nadu, Mid-Major Matt, Matt Josephs. Happy Friday, guys. We are thrilled to be with you on the BetUS College Basketball Show with a lot to talk about. Villanova and Kansas, North Carolina and Duke about to play.
TJ:
And, I have traveled to the Big Easy. I’m fortunate enough to be here for other broadcast duties for Tune In. I’m not able in the shot guys we have to show you the view that I have of the Superdome. The next best thing, and I’m going to hold it up… I know this is like bootleg camera. Here we go. There’s the Superdome right outside my room. I know it’s a glare, et cetera. So, I’m in the shadow of the Superdome. I’m excited. I can tell you they’re going to have these practices, these open to the public practices. There are already hundreds of people milling around because they don’t open the doors for another hour at the Superdome for Villanova, Kansas, Duke and North Carolina to practice.
TJ:
The buzz is building and we’re ready to talk all about it on the show. How are we feeling? Big Man, how you feeling for a Friday?
Jeff Nadu:
I feel all right, man. I feel all right. Good for you being down there. That’s great. That’s a great time, the Final Four. I’ve been there one time. It’s a fun time, sure, and New Orleans is great as well. So, yeah. It’s time to right the ship. I haven’t picked a damn winner in a while. Not a great end to the season for me. But, what are you going to do, I guess?
TJ:
It’s all about today. Right?
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah.
TJ:
It’s all about what we’re doing today. Mid-Major Matt knows that. He’s back aboard on the Friday before, the day before the Final Four. How you feeling as we head to the weekend here?
Matt Josephs:
Oh, I’m like Kyle. I will not be wearing any Villanova gear. I assume that he finally found a hat of a team that he likes that’s going to be around still. So, I will not be wearing anything Villanova. We’ll try and say some nice things about the Wildcats, though.
TJ:
I understand. Still has the Gonzaga pennant, I noticed, behind him. Plenty to get to here today, including questions and answers if you’ve got them in the live 11:00 a.m. hour. We got two shows left, guys. I’m going… I may get teary eyed on Monday. We got two shows left, today and Monday, 11:00 a.m. Eastern time. We’re here. We’ll be here at 11:00 a.m. obviously before the national championship game on Monday night, so we’re anxious to get ready to see who those two teams are going to be.
TJ:
But, if you’re live with us, give us a question. If you’ve got some interest in either one of these games or both of these games, fire them away. The guys may be answering you occasionally in the live chat, but they’ll feed me the questions as well to answer them on the show. If you’re watching us later in the day, that works too. You’re going to hear a lot of conversation about both of these games.
TJ:
I say we get right into it, right into the discussion. We begin first with the records and we see from last night… I know the big man was on Texas A&M. What a crazy finish in the NIT as Xavier hit the shot from inside the key off the glass to win the game by one. So, you see his record. You see Mid-Major Matt’s record. And, the show hovering right around the 500 mark for the end of the year. But, we’re all about Friday. We’re all about what’s going to happen today and tomorrow here in New Orleans for Villanova/Kansas, Duke/Carolina. And, the first time ever that those teams have played in their long storied rivalry. It is something else that they’ve never met in the NCAA Tournament and now they’re meeting for the first time in the Final Four, Coach K’s final games, he hopes. Could be final game. Final games will come in the Final Four here and he gets one more matchup with North Carolina.
TJ:
All right. As you alluded to, Matt, Villanova and Kansas will be the first game up here. Let’s have some conversation, I guess right away about that. I’m curious here as we take a look at this on the neutral floor in the Superdome that the BetUS line continues to hover… Excuse me… Around four and a half or five points. So, you had said earlier in the week if it gets above… If it gets to five, if it gets above five and a half, I would have some interest. The total at 133. So, let’s begin the discussion with this game. Matt, are you surprised the line hasn’t moved up a little more and might it move up a little more as we get closer to game time?
Matt Josephs:
We might see some movement on Saturday. I’m not going to get the five that I was hoping for. I mean, it briefly… I think it was Wednesday that the South Point in Las Vegas had it at five and it was about five minutes before it went back down to four and a half. So, I think we’re pretty set on the four and a half. And, as I talked about on the show, I’m definitely interested in Villanova. Now, I was interested more in an alternate line and BetUS doesn’t have any alternate lines up yet. I don’t know if it’s one of those things that they’ll add closer to Saturday or not. But, basically for people who aren’t familiar, a lot of sports books put out these lines that are everything else, pretty much, from if you want college basketball betting Villanova as a favorite, if you want to bet Kansas minus 10 and a half. Whatever it is. They put lines and values on everything.
Matt Josephs:
So, I was kind of waiting to see if there was any sort of alternate line value. There was not on there. So, I kind of went to the player props and it’s something that I kind of looked at and I’ve got a bunch of them. There’s some unders that I’m going to kind of wait on because I figure everybody’s going to bet overs on a lot of these players. I focused in on David McCormack and he’s one of these guys for Kansas that basically, you look at it and you’re going to know early if it’s a David McCormack kind of game because if you look, there’s some contests where he’s had single digits and there’s contests where he’s had double digits.
Matt Josephs:
And, I’m pulling it up now on my computer here. But, like, he’s coming off the 15 points in a game where he clearly had an advantage against Miami. But, he had eight, seven, nine. 18 against Texas Tech. And, you look at Villanova. The way to beat Villanova is to beat them inside. We saw Hunter Dickinson had double digits against Villanova. We’ve seen Adama Sanogo plenty of times for UConn have double digits in terms of points. I’m getting nine and a half here. I’m going to look at the over here for McCormack, knowing full well that early on, they may not feed him. He may get into foul trouble. But, I think the Jayhawks are going to make a concerted effort to feed McCormack, so I’ll take his over on his points and I’ll wait til closer to Saturday.
Matt Josephs:
I’ll be on Villanova at some [inaudible 00:06:16] number. I think [inaudible 00:06:17] points and I’ll wait til closer to Saturday.
Matt Josephs:
I’ll be on Villanova at some number. I think the Wildcats make this thing interesting. I just don’t trust the Jayhawks for a whole 40 minutes.
TJ:
All right. Interesting theories on that. Big Man, any thoughts, even if you’re not going to have an official play necessarily on this first game?
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah. I said the other day I was going to go on Kansas. I’m playing Kansas here. I’m going to lay the four and a half. Look, the truth is we can say we don’t like Villanova being here in the area, but the truth is their culture is terrific and I don’t think they’re going to lose much of a beat from a culture standpoint. They’re not going to have that woe is me attitude. That’s just not them. But, the loss of Moore is pronounced. He takes the most shots on this team percentage-wise. Defensively, he’s very good. And, I’ve talked about this. One of the problems that Jay Wright has had… There are very few of them because he looks like George Clooney and he’s rich and he’s a good coach. But, there is one thing that he has not done particularly well and that is high level recruits. They have not panned out for Jay and this is a problem when you get into situations like this where if you don’t have a Justin Moore, where do you go.
Jeff Nadu:
Antoine has not played well for them. He’s been mostly a failure. You know, Quinerly’s long gone. He was a high level recruit. Dhamir Cosby-Roundtree’s been a no-show. So, I don’t know if they have the depth. Now, I look at this and I say, well, these are two teams that have been impressive but have they really been. I alluded to the fact that I didn’t think it was that impressive what Villanova did. I think they were just a team that fell into a team that didn’t shoot the ball real well and if Houston had any sort of pulse offensively, they’d have won. You look at if you take Moore out of that game, they lose, quite easy and quite simple.
Jeff Nadu:
I think Matt has a great point with McCormack. When he plays 25 or more minutes, which he’s likely to play here, he’s going to get to 10 points. He’s got a good matchup here. I just don’t know if Eric Dixon and players like that can handle him. Throw in Mitch Lightfoot as well. I think he’s a real key cog for them. With Agbaji, Jalen Wilson, Remy Martin, I just think it’s too much for Villanova and I think ultimately Kansas will win this entire tournament.
Jeff Nadu:
I think this is a good matchup but without Moore, I just think that it’s too much. Throw in the fact… Villanova, very three point dependent and have been all year. They’ve been for a lot of years. This is an elite Kansas three point defense. They really limit you and quite honestly, were just dominating against the three point shot all year. Good rebounding team. Pretty much do everything well.
Jeff Nadu:
I’m going to lay the four and a half. I think this is like a 78-70 type of game.
TJ:
All right. So, I wasn’t sure that you were making the official play, though. It is going to be an official play on Kansas for the Big Man laying the four and a half that we have right now on Friday with the line possibly going up. And again, we’ll lock Matt in as well, as he is going for a player prop with Kansas big man David McCormack to get over nine and a half points in the game.
TJ:
Matt, do you just have a follow-up thought here on Jay Wright having a week basically to prepare here since they played Houston without Justin Moore? How much can they do, redistribute shots, touches, minutes? What is your feeling on that, because it’s obviously a factor for Villanova against Kansas?
Matt Josephs:
Well, I’ll say they had one game this year without Justin Moore and they beat UConn. And, look, I think UConn is somewhat of a poor man’s Kansas in terms of they’ve got size, they’ve got athleticism. They supposedly play defense. Villanova scored 85 in that game. And, look, that one… Going back to the box score there, Eric Dixon’s probably not scoring 24 in this game, but, I mean, Villanova has played without Justin Moore and has won a game.
Matt Josephs:
And, I’ll counter one thing to what Big Man said. I mean, I’ll go to the Kansas-Creighton game. If Creighton has Kalkbrenner, Kansas may not win that game. They did not play very well against a Creighton team that had two days to prepare without Kalkbrenner and get together an offense, and they let Kaluma beat them up. And, it’s not like Kansas looked great against Providence. Providence had a second half lead and Kansas was terrible against Miami in the first half.
Matt Josephs:
So, if you tell me that we’re going to get a consistent 40 minutes… And, maybe I look at Villanova in the first half. Maybe it’s one of these things where Villanova with a week to prepare comes out with a solid game plan that Kansas is not necessarily ready for and then Kansas then makes the adjustments at halftime and pulls away in the second half. So, maybe you look more at a Villanova first half here. But, I trust the better coach with a week to prepare, having already played a game without Justin Moore this season, and I’m just not a big Bill Self guy. So, maybe I’m talking myself actually into a Villanova first half spread play here as well.
TJ:
Well, and it’s a valid point that Jay Wright… Now, the stat is since the 2016 tournament began, is 20 and three in the NCAA tournament, including the four wins obviously this year. And, there is a lot… Look, I was coming in this morning and there are Kansas fans all over the place and the Kansas market and Kansas City… Lawrence and Kansas City are kind of metro. Lawrence about 30 minutes away. There’s a lot of talk there about how he has only delivered the one championship. Yes, he’s been in the Final Four. In fact, the last time the Final Four was in New Orleans, Kansas was in the championship game with Kentucky. But, he’s only delivered the one championship.
TJ:
And, is this a situation where Jay Wright, as Matt was alluding to, has so much success in the Elite Eight, in the Final Four game? Matchup advantage maybe for Jay Wright. Is the criticism of Self unfair, Big Man? Or, is is it part of the territory when you’re at a blue blood big time program like that and they’re saying where are the championships? You have one of them if you’re Bill Self.
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah. I think it’s definitely warranted. I mean, you know, especially at Kansas because they put all their resources into basketball. It’s quite simple. And, you’re right. The only championship was, what? 07, 08. You know, been to some Final Fours and some Elite Eights. But, you know, you want to win because that’s the ultimate goal at the end of the day, and yeah. I mean, I would have an issue with it. I think Matt’s got some [inaudible 00:12:01]. Look, if you’re asking me who the better coach is here, I think it’s Jay Wright. But, I think Bill Self’s still a great coach, too. I mean, he’s done a great job over the years.
Jeff Nadu:
But, yeah. I think if you’re a fan of this program, you have to ask yourself. We put all the resources into this program. We ought to be having [inaudible 00:12:15] for the most part. [inaudible 00:12:17] Since 03, 04, you have one championship to show for it. And again, like, if he were Mark Few, he could say, “Well, we were nothing until I came.” Kansas has been a power for years. I mean, forever.
TJ:
Decades.
Jeff Nadu:
So. Yeah. So, for him to… He can’t really fall back on that. At some point, you got to… You got to switch it up. But, yeah. I think this is a great game. I just… The addition of Remy Martin has been huge for Kansas. And, you know, look, there have been times, as I said on the show earlier this week… Kansas has not looked great at certain points in this tournament, but I’m banking on the fact that I’m hoping we get the second half version of Miami. That’s what I’m hoping for. I’m hoping we get the Texas Southern version. I’m hoping we get the team that was good in the Big 12 tournament at times. And, without Moore, I just think this is perfect and that’s what I want. So, we’ll see what happens.
TJ:
Rock chalk it. Rock chalk it. All right?
Matt Josephs:
TJ?
TJ:
Yeah. [crosstalk 00:13:15]
Matt Josephs:
I’ll add [inaudible 00:13:16]. I mean, the other… The other caveat here is Villanova doesn’t miss free throws and in a game where if it’s close at the end and Villanova’s going to the line, I know for the most part they’re going to make their free throws. So, I feel like that’s one of the things you need. If you’re going to have a good coach and a team that makes the free throws and doesn’t turn the ball over and just runs at their own speed no matter what… I mean, those are the recipes for an underdog in this situation.
Matt Josephs:
I don’t think Villanova’s going to win. But, I think they have the pieces to at least make it interesting, especially in the first half, which is where I’m actually starting to talk myself more into. But, like, they don’t miss free throws. They’re an 83% free throw shooting team all season.
TJ:
Yep.
Jeff Nadu:
Keep in mind. Okay? Another thing about Moore. You know who shoots the most free throws on this team? Now, granted, it’s [inaudible 00:14:02] on the same amount, but Justin Moore shot the most free throws on this team. Is he the best player on this team? He could be. He’s the most important. I think it’s a big loss, but we’ll see.
TJ:
It is a big loss. And, can they overcome it?
Jeff Nadu:
We’ll see. [crosstalk 00:14:15] Yeah.
TJ:
Can they keep it close? Will Kansas accelerate the pace of play? We’ll see. And, I’m sure we’ll get a question or answer about other things, totals and those kind of things, later on. We’ll get to the questions and answers in a few moments. But, again, Mid-Major Matt is on the McCormack play on a prop, again, for his points in the game. The Big Man, even though you don’t see it graphically on the screen, says lay the points with Kansas. He’ll take that as an official play. The BetUS line has it at four and a half.
TJ:
Shall we discuss semifinal number two? One more time for Coach K against North Carolina, and the Duke Blue Devils come in as four point favorites in the Caesars Superdome coming Saturday night. To say that this game is everything in the state of North Carolina… That doesn’t do it justice. This… It’s probably appropriate to say it’s the only thing that’s going to matter in the state of North Carolina this weekend and maybe for a long time, whatever happens here coming on Saturday night. The total at 151. We have been waiting to see if that line would move some. It was four and a half. Was it not? Was it four and a half earlier in the week? It’s still at four for Duke.
TJ:
And, Big Man, pick it up here because you’re going to have an official play for semifinal number two Saturday night in New Orleans.
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah. I’m going to… And, look, I think we obviously have to come into this game knowing the fact that there is an individual in this game that’s a coach that it is his last year. He plays… He coaches a team that over the years has got a lot of calls. He’s going to have a little advantage there with that. But, look, they’ve gotten the game they wanted. Let’s let the players decide what goes on here instead of these lifeless foul calls.
Jeff Nadu:
One thing I do know… This game goes off at about 8:50 Eastern. Now, what I’ve done in my terms of tomorrow is set my day up where we have nothing until 8:50 and about 8:50, I’m going to jump in the shower. Right? So, I can watch the game as I’m getting ready. I don’t have to hear this broadcast. Maybe I’ll listen to you because maybe you won’t be as obsessed with Coach K as the TV will be. And then, I’ll go out and I won’t have to hear the TV either because I’ll be just watching the game [inaudible 00:16:23].
TJ:
With the sound down. I didn’t know where we were going with I’m going to get in the shower. So, I’m glad that you kept that on the straight and narrow.
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah. I just want to avoid the broadcast.
TJ:
I understand.
Jeff Nadu:
Listening to those guys, because it’ll be a…
TJ:
I joked about this before, that they might put the Coach K… You know, the Coach K cam, like up in the corner of the screen where you just watch him the entire time.
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah. Oh, please, no.
TJ:
I don’t think they will do that, but they might.
Jeff Nadu:
No. I don’t want that. Please don’t with that. All right.
Jeff Nadu:
But, let’s talk about the actual game itself. I mean, I don’t know about Matt, but has…? I mean, either one of these games… I mean, I don’t think either team has… Neither team has been able to stop each other, quite honestly. I mean, the second game, UNC obviously did whatever they wanted. The first game, Duke did whatever they wanted. Throw that out, though. Two teams I look at on paper. I don’t see four points difference. I just don’t. I think Bacot is really good. Is he Banchero? No. But, I think he’s really good.
Jeff Nadu:
I think the front line for Carolina can neutralize Banchero as much as you can. It’s all about matchups here. What guards do you like better? Do you like Davis and Love or do you like Roach and those guys? I think it’s a flip there. Manek I think is a kind of a neutralizer. He could be interesting. He was very good in both games against Duke. 41 points combined in both games. So, I think… I’m sure Matt will talk about that a little bit.
Jeff Nadu:
But, ultimately, there’s not a lot of stats or trends or anything here for me. It’s simply rolling the ball out. This series is generally close between these two teams. Mano y mano. Huge game. Love’s on another level to me right now. I think Carolina hangs around. I think they can surely win this basketball game. I’ll take the four points.
TJ:
Got that. So, he’s going to take the Tar Heels and the four. Mid-Major Matt, thoughts and an official play on Duke/Carolina?
Matt Josephs:
So, I’m going to go once again with the player prop here and it’s been an auto bet pretty much. I mean, obviously I can’t bet these here in the state of Virginia unless you go to an offshore book. BetUS, of course, offering these. But, Brady Manek over two and a half threes. To me, it’s just… I mean, I had it against Saint Peters, or at least they gave it out against Saint Peters. He hits four, and that’s a defense that was… You know, has been very good.
Matt Josephs:
But, you look at those two Duke games. Five of 10 in Cameron, six of 10 at home. So, he’s 11 of 20 in two games. If you’re going to tell me that I’m getting 12… 10 to 12 cracks at the apple here and I just need three of them to go down for this guy who has gone four, three, four, five, zero, three, five, three his last bunch of games, I’ll take this any time and I’ll love this because Brady Manek is a guy who’s not going to stop shooting the threes.
Matt Josephs:
And, I understand they’re going to adjust the game plan. They’re going to make some changes and things like that. But, I mean, he’s going to get his opportunities. He always seems to be getting threes and if… The best situation will be Bacot getting offensive rebounds and kicking it out to Manek for open threes. Like, those are the scramble situations that you kind of see that happening with. So, I like Manek over two and a half threes. It’s been kind of an auto bet or at least an auto give out when I’ve had the opportunity and when they’ve been offered.
Matt Josephs:
With regards to the game itself, it’s funny because they’ve played twice during the regular season and as I said, I think back on Monday.
TJ:
Yeah.
Matt Josephs:
You can’t pull anything out of either of them. You know, North Carolina laid a massive egg February 5th at home and it’s a way different team from then. And then, they… A month later… Like, I’ll give Duke a pass because literally all the Duke legends are staring at these kids. You’ve got everything surrounding Coach K, the hourlong pregames, I’m sure, and every interview in the book and everything. So, I’m going to kind of throw out their performance from that game.
Matt Josephs:
So, it’s really hard when you’ve got a third matchup and you can’t really take anything from the first two. I… Once again, I will say this. Duke’s going to have the ultimate motivation here coming off the embarrassing loss. You know Banchero, when they asked him after the game, said nothing. He’s like, “I’m not going to let you guys have anything.” But, you know they wanted Carolina all along.
Matt Josephs:
I kind of like… And, it’s not my official play, but I also kind of lean to Duke in the first half. I think we get a really spirited effort from the Blue Devils early on, and once again, the coaching advantage, and it’s a massive one, Coach K against Hubert Davis. Give Coach K a week to look at this sort of thing and see what he can come up with.
Jeff Nadu:
Come on. Give me a break.
Matt Josephs:
What do you mean? [crosstalk 00:20:29]
Jeff Nadu:
Hubert Davis… It’s his first year, first of all, and he’s been terrific. Give him some credit. What do you mean he’s [inaudible 00:20:34]? Isn’t he [crosstalk 00:20:34]?
TJ:
He’s not saying don’t give him any credit.
Jeff Nadu:
At this point…
TJ:
I don’t think anybody on the planet… I don’t think anybody on the planet that’s objective would look at the coaching matchup and say Hubert Davis…
Jeff Nadu:
Oh, Krzyzewski’s [crosstalk 00:20:44].
TJ:
Hubert Davis deserves to be on the same plane with Coach K.
Jeff Nadu:
He’s not, but he’s a good coach.
TJ:
Big Man, please.
Jeff Nadu:
[crosstalk 00:20:48]
TJ:
I can go along with some of the stuff, but that… We’re not going along with that on a Friday.
Jeff Nadu:
Okay, but I didn’t say that. He’s acting like this guy is Penny Hardaway.
TJ:
He said coaching advantage, Coach K.
Jeff Nadu:
I don’t [crosstalk 00:20:59].
TJ:
Coaching advantage, Coach K.
Jeff Nadu:
Coach K hasn’t been a good coach for five, 10 years.
TJ:
Okay. I don’t think anybody…
Jeff Nadu:
At least, Matt, can you agree with that? He’s not [crosstalk 00:21:07].
TJ:
Coach K got a national championship six years ago, so I think within the last 10 years he did pretty well on that one. He got a national title. But, look, there is a lot of conversation about Hubert Davis silencing the critics. We’ve talked about this on the show. They got the win over Baylor. They collapsed and almost gave it away. I mean, you talk about shoulda, coulda, woulda. They could have been out on the first weekend when that game went to overtime and they outplayed them, and that says something for Carolina.
TJ:
And then, the UCLA game, they’re down three in the final minute and a half, as you guys know, as the audience knows, and Caleb Love hit the massive three to tie it. They got the ball back when UCLA missed and he hit another massive three to put them up by three and put the pressure on. They win that game and then they dominated Saint Peters. So, Hubert Davis has done more to silence the critics in the last two weekends than he did in the whole season at this point.
TJ:
But, again, to Matt’s point, you’ve got Coach K. You’ve got a week to prepare with Jon Scheyer sitting next to him there. They may have something… May have something in store. This is an interesting point. I want this from both of you guys. Matt, you were saying about all of the Duke alumni being there and all the pressure of Coach K’s final game at Cameron and did that affect the young players and a young team. A colleague of mine who does a phenomenal job… He’s in the Basketball Writers Hall of Fame. Mike DeCourcy of the Sporting News advanced a different theory because he was there that day in Cameron.
TJ:
He thought the Duke players let up mentally, especially defensively, because they had blown them out in the first game and they were up by double figures in the second half, to begin the second half. He thought they relaxed. They stopped playing hard. They stopped guarding. And, North Carolina got confidence, hit shots. He didn’t think it was so much succumbing to the pressure as it was they just… They relaxed and stopped playing defense. Thoughts from both of you on this? Big Man first, then Matt. Thoughts from both of you.
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah. I… I don’t… It seemed like that’s what happened. I mean, it seemed like they just turned it up for the last 10 minutes, UNC, and they just… They really wanted to win. I was surprised. I remember turning the game off and I said, oh my God. You know, they blew them out in the second half. Yeah. I could see it. I guess that makes a lot of sense.
Jeff Nadu:
Listen, the player in this game to keep an eye on is… Matt made a good point. Manek’s going to have a ton of shots and he’s going to have an opportunity. He could be a real problem for Duke. In the second matchup, he was a real problem. But, Leaky Black is very important as well. Leaky Black did a nice job on Wendell Moore in the second matchup. Leaky Black is the best defender in the ACC. He needs to be at and play at the highest level. I don’t need him to score 15 points. I just need him to rebound, defend, give me three or four blocks. Leaky Black’s important as well. You need players like that.
Jeff Nadu:
Listen, Hubert Davis is not Coach K. I think we all know that. But, I think he’s a good coach and I think he’ll be ready to go. He also has some damn good assistants as well. Man, wouldn’t it be…? I can’t say it on here, but wouldn’t it be f’in sweet to watch that rat walk out and lose to Carolina? Big Blue Nation, baby. Come on, Carolina.
TJ:
Oh, we’re just openly rooting now on the Friday show. Matt, a thought on… Was some of the loss at Cameron that the Duke guys got a little full of themselves and said we beat them bad the first time, we’re beating them bad now, and they stopped hustling, they stopped guarding, they stopped doing the things that they had done well for a game and a half against North Carolina? You buy that at all?
Matt Josephs:
Yeah. Yeah. I certainly do. And, obviously it didn’t bother them early on because you were referring… They were up nine with three minutes left in the first half. That was the largest lead they had all game. So, yeah. I could see that.
Matt Josephs:
I’ll bring up a guy on the other side that I think is important because he’s had two different games and both of those contests and AJ Griffin I think is the guy who, for Duke, has to be the man. You look in that game at Duke. He scores five points and only takes five shots. And, that game at Carolina, he scores 27 points on 11 of 17 shooting. Now, how much confidence and how much can he carry over from the Arkansas game? He had 18. That was his highest for the last couple of contests. I think he’s a guy who’s going to open some things up a little bit with his three point shots. You know, it’s been kind of hot and cold from three, but I think AJ Griffin, much like Leaky Black for North Carolina, is the key for Duke if they hope to do anything.
TJ:
All right. Good enough. Let’s lock the guys in. You’ve been waiting for this. Here are their official plays. Again, the Big Man laying those points with North Carolina. He’s going with both favorites on the weekend.
Jeff Nadu:
No, no [crosstalk 00:25:23].
TJ:
Kansas and… Or, actually, I’m sorry. Excuse me. Kansas as a favorite and then he’s taking the four points with North Carolina going against Duke in the final game. And again, depending on if you can get on the BetUS line or where it is, Brady Manek. Matt took the over two and a half threes made in a game because he believes he will be able to get at least three of them. Had… What did you say? Four of them in the Saint Peters game and has been one of the big keys obviously on the perimeter to open things up. The Oklahoma graduate transfer that’s in this biggest stage in the Final Four.
TJ:
All right. We’re going to get to your questions and answers here as we roll along. Send those along live here as you’re watching us. We’re going to be here for a few minutes more. Reminder again. Hit the like button. Hit the bell. Make sure you subscribe to the channel. We’re right there on the cusp of 2,000. We began at zero. We’re right at the cusp of 2,000 subscribers. Great job by you folks, the fans. Subscribe away. Share this out. We’re back Monday one more time at 11:00 a.m. Eastern time prior to the national championship game. Will it be Villanova or Kansas? Will it be Duke or North Carolina in Monday night’s title game? We’ll be here at 11:00 a.m.
TJ:
You see the big bracket. We started with 68 teams, the First Four in Dayton and then those 32 games on the first two days of the tournament, and the blur of games has now whittled down. We have now played some 64 games of this tournament. Three more to play. Two Saturday, one Monday night. And, you see there on the screen. Duke, Carolina, Villanova, Kansas are those teams.
TJ:
All right. Let’s get to some questions and answers. Again, if you’re watching us live, send those along. We’re going to be here for a few more minutes if you’ve got a couple of questions. Showtime Coss is watching and says, “You guys will probably address it.” I did not yet on purpose. He says, “The over in the Duke/North Carolina game.” He’s like… And, I see the Big Man nodding. He’s liking a lot of points with that number at 151. That would imply a game in the upper seventies. Big Man, got a thought on that?
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah. This one’s moved up a bit. I mean, this is one of those games you want as a fan. You know, as a neutral or whatever. Back and forth. Just great offense on both sides. You know, two front courts that should eat, two front courts that are going to be utilized, two teams that can really shoot the rock. Matt mentioned Manek. Caleb Love’s been great. You look at Duke. Obviously, Wendell Moore has been terrific and Griffin.
Jeff Nadu:
I would expect a high seventies, low eighties. I just don’t see both these teams kind of settling in the half court and… You know, they will a bit, but it’s going to be running up and down. Two good offenses. Again, like I said, I don’t see four points difference between these two. I think it should be a fun game. I think the bettors agree with it. I think if there’s one game that’s going to go over, it would be this one. I’d be surprised if it’s not high profile offense up and down, back and forth.
TJ:
Matt, a thought on the total here, which, as Jeff said, has gone up a little bit? Maybe it was a better price earlier in the week. Any thoughts?
Matt Josephs:
I might go live here. I think there could be a little bit of an adjustment period because if we’ve seen the games that have been played here have been some unders. I think I saw it was [inaudible 00:28:27]. All three of them in that 2012 Final Four went under. And, of course, I believe the Syracuse one in 2003, there were a couple unders, although the championship game obviously went over.
Matt Josephs:
You know, obviously they’re going to have the shootarounds today, so they’re going to be at least used to the sight lines a little bit, but having been to those shootarounds, they’re not exactly like practicing real hard. They’re taking half court shots. They’re doing some different things. So, I think there could be a bit of an adjustment. If you like the over, I would say wait a little bit into the game, hope for a slow start, take a lower number and the over. Because, I think the second half will be a whole lot better once these teams get used to it.
Matt Josephs:
Plus, I’m a little nervous about like these two teams… Like, Duke’s going to be so excited to get out there and beat on Carolina. They’re going to try and hit 100 point plays and what if they’re kind of like struggling a little bit early on here. So, I would actually wait if you like the over. Take it live and hope for a slow start.
TJ:
I was just looking when you were talking about the open to the public practices. Again, I’m in the shadow of the Superdome if you’re joining us just now here in New Orleans. I’m here doing work for Tune In and their mobile lab and the Final Four coverage on Tune In. And, there are still… I mean, there are hundreds of people out here in the plaza around the Caesars Palace. The Caesars Palace. The Caesars Superdome, because they can’t get in yet until the top of the hour as we’re doing this live. And then, the teams will be on the floor. Villanova, Kansas first and then Duke, North Carolina will be after that later in the day.
TJ:
And, usually they’re about 10 to 15,000 people that come to watch this, come be around the event. A lot of them don’t have tickets for the game, can’t afford tickets for the game. I mean, the tickets are astronomical. And, of course, guys, a year ago they didn’t have this. There was no open to the public practice because of the COVID restrictions at Lucas Oil Stadium for the Final Four with Baylor and Houston and Gonzaga and UCLA. They didn’t have it. Obviously, no tournament in 2020. So, this is the first time they’re welcoming fans back.
TJ:
They’re playing the NABC All-Star game, the National Association of Basketball Coaches All-Star game, this afternoon inside the Superdome. So, they’ve got a big event going here and I can see a bunch of people that are milling around already, ready to get in here in about half an hour.
TJ:
Another question. Somebody else watching us. That is East Woodmore who says, “Hey. Is the Duke/North Carolina game bigger than North Carolina/Georgetown or Duke/UNLV?.” I assume that he’s meaning the North Carolina/Georgetown championship game in this Superdome 40 years ago now. My gosh. Michael Jordan’s winning shot was 1982. The Duke/UNLV game, a lot of people don’t remember, was a semifinal game with UNLV undefeated and then Duke had to go on… Matt and the Big Man know this. And, beat Kansas in the national championship game on that Monday night for Coach K’s first national title.
TJ:
All right, guys. In terms of hype and building this up, Big Man, any thought on where this semifinal game stacks up with big time Final Four games?
Jeff Nadu:
I mean, I think it’s definitely right up there. I mean, it adds intrigue, the fact that it’s obviously Duke/Carolina, but it’s also Coach K’s last game possibly. I mean, that’s huge as far as intrigue. As far as will it be the best game… Look, the greatest game I’ve ever seen… Now, remember, I’m not very old. I’m only 32. But, the best game that I could remember in a long time was that Villanova/Carolina game a couple of years ago, the one where Chris Jenkins hit the three ball at the buzzer.
TJ:
Mm-hmm (affirmative)-
TJ:
Oh yeah.
Jeff Nadu:
That was incredible. Yeah. I definitely think it’s hyped up. I mean, I was very young when those other games happened, so I can’t comment. I’m feeling… You… You know, TJ, you might be able to comment a little bit better.
TJ:
I’m old.
Jeff Nadu:
You’re pretty [crosstalk 00:31:55]. Yeah.
TJ:
[crosstalk 00:31:57] [inaudible 00:31:57] Pretty old. I’m older.
TJ:
The matchup in Indianapolis with Duke and UNLV… The only thing I can convey… And, Matt, I don’t know if you’re around my age too, around the half century mark, et cetera. But, the thing about that game is… Yeah. I saw the… I saw the eyes roll. The thing about that game is UNLV seemed to be so invincible. Larry Johnson, Stacey Augmon, Greg Anthony, Anderson Hunt. They had not lost a game in a year and a half, going back to the previous tournament when they had destroyed Duke. And, this was Christian Laettner, Bobby Hurley, Grant Hill, the young versions of those guys. They were not yet seniors. Grant Hill, I believe, was only a freshman that year.
TJ:
They were not given much of a chance. I don’t have the spread info in front of me, but I bet it was close to a double digit underdog status for Duke in that 1991 Final Four. So, the fact that they were able to hang with them and eventually beat them… UNLV missed some free throws, played tight. Laettner hit a big shot late in the game and the crowd obviously rallied behind Duke to pull the upset after UNLV had won like 40 games in a row.
TJ:
That one… It’s going to be tough for Duke/North Carolina to kind of match that one because you had an unbeaten season. Then again, you got the backdrop of Coach K. Matt, any thought here on Duke/Carolina and how it stacks up with other Final Fours and big moments and big games?
Matt Josephs:
Well, obviously, you know, I said the committee was going to rig it for Duke to make the Final Four. This is even better than their wildest dreams. I think they put Carolina on the same side as Duke, but they didn’t think that the Carolina Tar Heels were going to get here because you figure on their path they were going to play… They were going to play Marquette. They were going to play Baylor. They were probably going to play Purdue and they were going to play UCLA. And, they didn’t think there was a way [inaudible 00:33:36].
Matt Josephs:
So, they’re pleasantly surprised. I think that this is going to be a big game because it’s the two blue blood programs and I think it’s great for Villanova and Kansas that nobody’s really talking about that game. I think there’s a chance that may actually be the better game. I’m not thinking it’s going to be a blowout. I think that there’s a chance… You know, there’s a chance Duke outclasses North Carolina. I don’t think that’s going to happen. But, Villanova/Kansas is going to be kind of quietly the sneakier, better game of the two of them.
TJ:
Interesting point on that one. They’re both going to be dramatic and obviously Kansas, a massive, massive following. You can get here. Not bad. Probably about eight or 10 hours in the car, depending on how fast you drive from the Midwest, from Kansas, and to get down here in New Orleans. And, they’re… Again, guys, I’ve had the privilege of being at this thing now… This will be the 20th one that I’ve been at. Different outlets and venues, working them.
TJ:
There are tens of thousands of people that will be here today, Friday, and tomorrow, that don’t have tickets to the game and can’t get tickets to the game. They just want to be part of the event, especially in a party city like New Orleans, in and around the French Quarter. And, obviously they’ve got a bunch of free things to do with the NCAA Fan Fest, their fan experience thing. Again, the free practices today you can go and be around and the all-star game for the college all-stars that’s being played. That doesn’t have to do with having to spend thousands of dollars for a ticket to get in. So, there will be a lot of people here this afternoon, tonight and tomorrow, that don’t have a ticket for the game. So, in any event, that is part of the atmosphere.
TJ:
All right. Another question.
Jeff Nadu:
Hey, TJ?
TJ:
Yeah. Go ahead.
Jeff Nadu:
Can I ask a question?
TJ:
Sure.
Jeff Nadu:
How the hell is Brad Davison still eligible to play at Wisconsin? He just announced he’s coming back for another year. How the hell is he still eligible?
Matt Josephs:
Jeff.
Jeff Nadu:
[crosstalk 00:35:19]
TJ:
This is the COVID… This is the COVID thing on steroids. [crosstalk 00:35:22] year 12 from him.
Jeff Nadu:
He’s got to be older than… He’s got to be older than Matt Josephs at this point.
Matt Josephs:
Can we take a timeout here? You guys know what day it is, right? It’s… It’s April Fool’s Day.
TJ:
Oh. Perhaps he got him. Yeah.
Jeff Nadu:
Well, [crosstalk 00:35:33].
TJ:
Maybe he got you.
Matt Josephs:
[crosstalk 00:35:34] Well done.
TJ:
Maybe he got you.
Jeff Nadu:
Well, I don’t think he did, though, because, I mean, this was posted by, I think, other outlets. Like, Wisconsin’s website posted it.
TJ:
But, is he…? But, is he the one that put it out and he’s pulling people’s leg?
Jeff Nadu:
No. Wisconsin athletics put it out.
TJ:
Maybe they’re also pulling your leg.
Matt Josephs:
Exactly. Ian Rappoport [crosstalk 00:35:49].
TJ:
You didn’t go… You didn’t go with the Coach K has decided to retire before the North Carolina game on the April Fool’s here, so don’t fall for that one, either.
Jeff Nadu:
I mean, I… I mean, that is true. I didn’t see… I didn’t notice that. However, I mean, a lot of people are reporting it. [inaudible 00:36:01].
TJ:
All right. They picked up on the April Fool’s guy. Matt’s all over it, saying April Fool’s.
TJ:
Kenny Woo. Woo, woo, woo, Kenny Woo says, “Thoughts on the over for 11 and a half points for Germaine or for Daniels? For, I’m sorry, Caleb Daniels?.” What do we have thoughts on that player prop in the Villanova/Kansas game? Will Germaine Daniels get over 11 and a half points? Feeling on that, either one of you? Big Man?
Jeff Nadu:
When it comes to Daniels, listen, I think for the Villanova to win this game, I think he’s going to have to get to that. I think he’s [inaudible 00:36:34] give me 15. I mean, Caleb Daniels is a good offensive player. He’s a great shooter. He was terrific at Tulane. I liked what he… I thought he was terrific against Houston at times. He looked really good. Didn’t even shoot the ball real well. Still had 12 points.
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah. I mean, if you’re going to give me 11 and a half, I mean, he… He actually was really good offensively this year for them, so, yeah. I don’t… I don’t mind that. 11th in the conference in two point percentage, 16th in three point percentage. He’s a senior. He’s going to get plenty of minutes. I’d expect him to probably do 30 minutes in this game. Yeah. I think that’s a good one. I think for them to win, he’s got to get to that number.
TJ:
And, Caleb Daniels, a New Orleans kid coming back to New Orleans. Who would have known that he could be a hero here, get some points in the Superdome, where he was? A thought, Matt, on that, on his ability to score?
Matt Josephs:
So, he had 16 in that UConn game. I mean, that’s the one game you can look at without Justin Moore. He had 16 on five of seven shooting, although he did get to the free throw line six times. If you’re going to tell me that I get 16 shots from Caleb Daniels like he had in the Houston game, then I definitely like it because I think he’s going to be a little bit more efficient.
Matt Josephs:
And, you know, I think it’s funny. Another one that I’ll potentially look at is the under for Collin Gillespie. I understand everybody’s going to go to Collin Gillespie because he’s the number one option and he’s probably going to take a bunch of shots. But, if you’ve looked, I mean, his number… He’s gone under that number quite a bit. Now, I think if you’re going to look at the under, you’re going to wait til Saturday because everybody’s going to see Villanova. They’re going to be like, oh, Collin Gillespie. Oh, I got to take his over. I think there’s a chance it moves off the 14 and a half. Maybe you get a 15 and a half or, heck, even a 16 and a half if the public comes in enough.
Matt Josephs:
I just think Collin Gillespie’s going to be the number one focus. He’s going to get the best defender and I think it’s going to have to be Samuels and Daniels who do it for Villanova if they hope to move on.
TJ:
Jeff, one more and I think we’re good on the audience questions. But, if you got one, we’ll stick around for a few more minutes just right here while we wrap up and we’re going back to the best bets in just a second here on the BetUS Friday show before the Final Four semifinals.
TJ:
Jeff, you mentioned about what you thought the score might be. It’s not an official play on the total for you, but you thought the Kansas/Villanova game might get to the seventies and if it does, it obviously favors Kansas at that pace, especially without Justin Moore. Any thoughts on the total of that game, which again, if I’m looking correctly, is 133 on the BetUS line, at least as of this morning? Any thoughts on Villanova/Kansas total, Jeff?
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah. I mean, I feel like all four of these teams… Tremendous offense groups, right? You know, I definitely lean on both overs. Obviously, it’s a different site variations. It’s a huge game. It’s games that are likely closer. So, yeah. Look, I lean over in both games and 132 and a half, 133, seemed a bit low for a Kansas game. You know, Villanova, for what it’s worth, is still efficient. I feel like [inaudible 00:39:22]. You know, now remember, 70-65’s a loser. I mean, if you take an under. That’s not a crazy number to get.
TJ:
Right.
Jeff Nadu:
I just don’t think any of these games are played in the low sixties or fifties. So, yeah. I feel like over in both would be what I would look at. But, I’m not ultimately… I’m not ultimately playing them.
TJ:
Not ultimately on that. Interesting. Kyle Hunter had the stat yesterday. Jeff, help me remember. Was it the total for the games or was it the first half under that the last time here at the Superdome for Kentucky/Louisville and Kansas/Ohio State in the semifinals and then a Kentucky/Kansas game…? It was either all three first half unders hit or the total under hit for all three games? To the point about shooting background, football stadium, et cetera. I thought that was interesting yesterday. Just beware, especially in… I believe it was first half unders he was talking about, now that I remember it. Beware on the first half unders in these two games tomorrow, although Matt, you were talking about Duke may race out here, the way that they have shot the ball in San Francisco.
TJ:
That’s the other thing we don’t know. Duke was all the way out in San Francisco. Do they show up in New Orleans and continue to shoot it well or not? Obviously, North Carolina was in Philadelphia and shot the ball well enough in both games there. Does it translate to the Superdome? Kansas in Chicago, Villanova in San Antonio. Does it translate into the new arena? Any thought on that, Matt, being a concern that you were hot somewhere else? I mean, it happens that way every year. You’re hot somewhere else or not and then you come in to a new setting to play the Final Four.
Matt Josephs:
Well, I’ll be very surprised if both Villanova and Kansas get to 70 like Jeff said they were. I mean, I don’t think… I think there’s a good chance that maybe one of them does. I was looking at the Kansas team total under 69 because I think that even though Justin Moore’s gone, I still think the defensive system’s pretty sound and I don’t think there’s going to be any sort of pace to this game. I think it’s going to be like a 65, 66 possession game.
Matt Josephs:
So, I was actually looking at the Kansas team total. I mean, look at some of the teams that Villanova’s held down defensively. But, I would be surprised if either… If both teams got to 70 in that one.
Matt Josephs:
Yeah. You know, it’s always… It’s always an interesting thing with the sight lines and everything, playing in football stadiums and stuff like that, and we’ve seen some people have success with that. We’ve seen some people not have success with that. I would… If I was an under guy like Kyle, I’d probably look at the under in that game, especially the first half under, but that thing’s also fallen a bunch. I think it’s 61 and a half, 62 for the first half under.
TJ:
Wow.
Matt Josephs:
That is quite a bit lower than usual, so I would lean unders, but I’m just not… I don’t look at games and look for unders like Kyle does. So, that’s where I would lean to it, but it’s not one of my plays.
TJ:
All right. Good enough on that. I didn’t want to shortchange you on the Q and A, Matt. The basketball classic, the delayed championship game because of the travel problems with Fresno State that we were talking about last night… They’re now playing the game at Coastal Carolina tonight instead of last night. Did you have any thought on that? When last we checked, Coastal Carolina was like a two and a half or three point favorite. I know you’ve brought that tournament up a couple times. It concludes. Any thoughts, Matt, even if not a play?
Matt Josephs:
I lean to Coastal here. With Cliff Ellis and with… This game’s now at 3:00 in the afternoon.
Jeff Nadu:
Wow.
Matt Josephs:
Like, I just feel like… I mean, it’s just… It… There’s so many issues here and if you’re Fresno State, obviously you’re motivated because you got to the championship game of this stupid thing. I’m guessing there’s a trophy and everything. But, like, Coastal at home in a 3:00 afternoon game? You got a really good coach in Cliff Ellis. I would lean Coastal. I didn’t play anything in this game, but with the weird circumstances, I like the home team who’s been home the whole time and knows what they’re preparing for, as opposed to the team that’s trying to travel over here and now the game’s earlier and everything else. Give me the home team. But, it’s not official.
TJ:
Okay. Good enough. I don’t think Jeff had any thoughts. I’ll speak for you on that.
Jeff Nadu:
Nah.
TJ:
You weren’t… Didn’t have a lot on that. We’ll see.
Jeff Nadu:
No, no.
TJ:
[crosstalk 00:43:11]
Jeff Nadu:
This is a weird game, weird situation, game that should have been played the day before. Yeah. I actually mentioned I lean Fresno. I like them a lot. But, it… We talked about it. I mean, they haven’t been past the state of Texas since pre-2018, I think. So, it’s not easy to do these things. But, you know, these kids do it. Whatever. TJ?
TJ:
Yes, sir?
Jeff Nadu:
Next week after this all ends, I will be back with a baseball show starting next week. Donnie Rightside and I, Base Winner and me, next week. Links in the description. Please subscribe to our BetUS MLB Show. And, I am going to, at some point, try to get Mid-Major Matt. I know he… Does he cap baseball? I don’t know if he does. But, we’ll see. Maybe we can get him on [inaudible 00:43:57].
TJ:
Hey, I’m a baseball guy. I’m available if you need me here and there. Rays, et cetera.
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah.
TJ:
There’s a lot of Yankee fans in my market in Tampa Bay as well. So, we’ll see what happens with that. But, good luck with the baseball show coming next week. And, we got other things that are going on as well through BetUS TV. Again, they were doing the Bundesliga soccer earlier in the day.
Jeff Nadu:
Oh, yeah.
TJ:
You got the golf. You got the Masters next week, as you guys know, Matt and Big Man. And, there’s all kinds of speculation that Tiger Woods is going to try to play in that one. But, whether you got the NBA playoffs and the NBA daily show that’s going on, the Stanley Cup playoffs, NHL show that’s going on. All of it on BetUS TV. You see on the screen the NBA show coming up later on today.
Jeff Nadu:
Can we hear you…? Can we hear you say the German soccer league again?
TJ:
Bundesliga.
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah.
TJ:
Good enough?
Matt Josephs:
Bundesliga.
TJ:
Bundesliga?
Jeff Nadu:
I love that.
Matt Josephs:
Bundesliga?
TJ:
Get a little Bundesliga. All right. With that, best bets. Let’s get to what the guys are officially on for the Final Four.
Jeff Nadu:
Let’s go. Come on.
TJ:
Jeff is really wanting Carolina and also Kansas. It’s not there on the screen.
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah, [crosstalk 00:45:00].
TJ:
But, he’s on Kansas.
Jeff Nadu:
[inaudible 00:45:01]
TJ:
Got Kansas. Lay the four and a half with Kansas. And again, for North Carolina, he’ll take the four points. Mid-Major Matt has a couple of player props. David McCormack, the Kansas big man, to go over nine and a half points. Brady Manek, the North Carolina forward, to have more than two and a half threes, have at least three threes in the game. And, he’s also got a big lean to Villanova and a live number if the live number is something like five and a half or six, an adjusted line, something like that. He might be very interested in that.
TJ:
With that, guys, we have three games remaining. Two of them Saturday, one more Monday night. I say this everywhere. I am thrilled to be here. It is the best event in sports. I know the Super Bowl is the biggest event in this country. We’ll say in this country, in North America. Certainly, the World Cup would go as the biggest event worldwide. The Super Bowl is one game, two teams, and a lot of times it’s not a great game. It depends. This is three games with four fan bases and it is going to be electric Friday night here in New Orleans and on Saturday.
TJ:
This is the best event in sports. It may not be the highest viewed. It may not have the most audience. But, it is going to be something and it’s going to be dramatic no matter what happens because it could be Coach K’s final game. We could be rolling in here on Monday talking about North Car… What a book end. If Hubert Davis beats him in his final game at Cameron and then beats him in the Final Four, that is Hall of Fame legendary stuff that gets talked about if that is the case coming up.
TJ:
Guys, final thoughts. Mid-Major Matt, a final thought before the Final Four?
Matt Josephs:
Should be a good one. Looking forward to it. Hopefully come out with some winners.
TJ:
Let’s do that. Big Man, any final thoughts besides the shower, the nightlife? Anything else?
Jeff Nadu:
Nope. Ready to go. See you on Monday. Have fun.
TJ:
All right. We’re all good. We’re here Monday at 11:00. We’ll know the two teams playing for the national title in New Orleans. Everybody enjoy the games. Good luck with your plays and we thank you for watching the BetUS college basketball show. Don’t forget to check our sportsbook.