TJ Reeves:
We have reached the opening day of two. 32 games coming Thursday and Friday in the 2023 Big Dance. Welcome to March. Welcome to the mayhem. Welcome to everything that is about to go on. Coming up at four different sites today, four separate, different sites on Friday, and we’re all about it on the BetUS College Basketball Show. I am the somewhat capable and somewhat rested for now host, TJ Reeves. You’re here for the handicapping of these guys. We welcome back Matty Cox and also for the first time this week, say hello to Kyle Hunter. Now up front we got to say that my man, Matty Cox is jet-setting and has just arrived in Las Vegas. That is a power move here on BetUS TV to be hanging out in Vegas for the opening couple of days of the NCAA Tournament. So I guess you start us first. How you feeling and is everybody coherent as we do this show 8:00 AM Pacific time, 11:00 AM Eastern time? Are there a lot of people wobbly, staggering around here? Are we about ready to go?
Matty Cox:
Yeah, official report from the airport here, TJ is most are coherent at this point. We’ll see on Sunday how that develops. But at this point everyone is straight and on the up and up.
TJ Reeves:
Forget about Sunday. How about Saturday morning? It may be over there. So man on the scene is Matty Cox there. Kyle Hunter is hanging out in his home in Ohio. I’m hanging out here in West Central Florida. I mention again as we get ready to talk about all these games, I’m headed over to the pod in Orlando, south bracket and east bracket games that are going to be going on involving Duke and Tennessee, and San Diego State and Virginia, and all the upstarts. So I’ll be over there. I’ll be able to report back about that on the show tomorrow. Kyle Hunter, good to have you back first time this week. How amped are you for this to get underway?
Kyle Hunter:
I love this time of year guys. This is fantastic stuff. We got 12 hours or more of straight basketball, and you know I’m going to be watching all of it and we’re looking forward to breaking these games down today. It doesn’t get better than the first two days of The Big Dance.
TJ Reeves:
Yeah, a lot to cover and the first thing is we think we know but we don’t really know, and get ready for upsets and get ready for probably significant upsets maybe even right away. My joke continues to be boys, everybody’s bracket’s going to be blown up by five o’clock Friday, so just relax and then enjoy the rest of the tournament, and we’ll try to do some handicapping along the way. All right, so things are underway. We’re going to take a look at the records. We’re going to take a look at the Thursday games. One disclaimer, we have already talked about four of the games yesterday, Mid Major Matt and Matty Cox did a great job of breakdown of four different games on the program yesterday. So I know this is the live show. We’ll watch the live show, but if you want in depth on those four specific games involving West Virginia, Maryland, Furman Virginia, Utah State, Missouri, Howard and Kansas, go on the YouTube page and go back and watch the breakdown of Matty and Matt from yesterday on their handicapping and their official plays.
There’s four official plays on those games, so you’re not going to get as much on those four, but everything else is fair game including our schedule. Hopefully I explained that adequately and everything will be ready to go. All right, let’s take a look at the records on the show after the first four wins last night by Fairleigh Dickinson and by Arizona State. My goodness was Arizona State devastating against Nevada? Did Nevada look like a team that belonged in the first four in the NCAA Tournament? Didn’t look like it last night.
All right. You see the record on the show is above 500. Kyle, above 500. Matty’s striving to get there. Guys, are you ready? Are you ready for 16 games today and a whole lot of handicapping? Let’s get to it. Let’s get to game number one and comments, thoughts and opinions on Charleston and San Diego State? This is one of those 12 five matchups to watch out for. South Regional, the game being played in Orlando. San Diego State comes all the way east, 3000 miles to the east to play an afternoon Eastern Time game laying five points with a total of 142. Matty Cox, give me a quick opinion on this one, a thought or two on Charleston who had a tremendous regular season in the CAA now playing San Diego State?
Matty Cox:
Yeah, a lot’s been made of the travel. San Diego states making West Coast, East Coast, but also Charleston had major issues with their travel from Charleston even though it’s the same time zone. They were just outside that 500 mile threshold, so they actually had to pay their own way and get their own bus. So what should usually be a travel advantage for the Cougars may not be as much. They may have actually gotten their own plane last second, but still they had their own [inaudible 00:04:34]. I’m actually looking to live vet this game. I think both teams are prone to scoring droughts and blowing leads. San Diego State certainly has a propensity to go through long lulls of scoring droughts. And then Charleston, all year they’ve built these big leads against middle of the road competition.
When they played the big boys though they’ve stepped up pretty well in class but they haven’t been able to sustain that level all throughout the course of the game. I think when they get into the half court they can go through major scoring lulls, so very specific. I think live NCAAB betting opportunity in this one. Full game spread though feels pretty sharp. I think a lot of people like the dog here with that Cinderella giant killer potential, but I think that’s kind of disrespectful to what San Diego State’s done down this stretch, which has been pretty magnificent.
TJ Reeves:
All right, Kyle Hunter, the Aztecs a tremendous performance in the Mountain West Tournament as they end up getting the win over Utah State. Now they come all the way east. We see a lot of activity already in the chat about this game. Thoughts including something on the total?
Kyle Hunter:
Well I tell you first, TJ, I’m just glad Nevada made it in the tournament. What a fantastic game they put on last night there. It was hard to believe they could make Arizona State’s offense look that good. I knew that that would definitely change some narratives about today’s game certainly. This one did go down to four and a half. I do see it steaming now. It’s kind of interesting seeing San Diego State getting steamed back up to six some places, so we’ll see what happens with this line. I do think there’s not necessarily a correlation between what happened last night and what will happen in this game. I think it’s a very different matchup. Charleston’s winning games by dominating on the boards. They’re 11th in rebounding margin in the nation this year. They really rely on getting out in transition, but I guess which team’s amazing in transition defense, that’s San Diego State.
Top five transition defense. They don’t let you get out and run. This is a San Diego State team that did play a good strength as schedule 34th. Charleston 305th. Obviously Charleston has a great record, but they [inaudible 00:06:32] really faced competition like San Diego State. For me, the question is whether I’d want to lay points with San Diego State because like Matt said, “San Diego State, very well known for those lulls.” Matt Bradley’s a good player, but he can take some low percentage shots. They kind of get stuck on offense. Routinely go through these long scoring droughts. I don’t want to lay the points here, but I think my favorite bet is Charleston team total under. I think it’ll be hard for them to score in the half court if they don’t get those quick transition buckets here. I think they have a hard time getting open looks, so I kind of like Charleston staying under the team total in this one.
TJ Reeves:
Lot of conversation in the chat about the line moving down, and the live bet may be even a better price for Charleston when it goes here. Again, nothing official from the handicappers. That’s an afternoon game in Orlando. And again guys, I’m going to do my best. I should be in the arena for that one in its entirety. I should be getting there. The Furman, Virginia game will be the first game up on the floor in that south bracket in Orlando. This will be the second game, long about 3:00 Eastern Time right around there, so I should be able to be in there. I’ll view this one firsthand and report back tomorrow on what happens with Charleston and San Diego State with no official play here on the show. All right, so let’s move on to another game of interest, and this one is an eight, nine intriguing game.
This one coming up in the West bracket, even though the pod is in Des Moines, Iowa. Keep it all straight here. Illinois and Arkansas, neutral floor, Arkansas favored by 2. 144 is our total in this game. Kyle Hunter, we’ll come right back to you. Begin the discussion on Hogs and Fighting Illini. The winner stands in the way of Kansas, the one seed. 99.999% it’s Kansas as the one seed. That will be coming on the weekend. So Illinois, Arkansas, Kyle, a thought or two real quick here. As we look at that West bracket and you see on the bracket right they’re at the top. That’s where Arkansas and Illinois are. The game in Des Moines, Iowa. Kyle, a thought?
Kyle Hunter:
Yeah, few teams have disappointed me more this year than Illinois. I thought they’d be better than this. Arkansas has a higher upside with Nick Smith, but they haven’t consistently shown that upside either. They’re a pretty inconsistent team. Musselman has a big name for his NCAA Tournament runs, but he is five and eight against the spread in the NCAA Tournament, so he is not been tremendous there. I think the Razorbacks upside is probably higher than the Illinois upside. I really don’t know what to bet in a game like this. I’m just going to be 100% transparent. This is probably my least favorite game to bet on the entire board that we’re talking today. I guess I just wonder with the talent that they’ve assembled at this point, I know I’m putting you on the spot here a little bit, Matt, but is Brad Underwood a good coach? Because he was really a big hire, but he hasn’t really came through that big for Illinois since he’s been there.
Matty Cox:
Yeah, I think people look at the tournament shortcomings. I have deja vu to the Loyola loss and they were the one seat highly touted to go far. Tough matchup though. I kind of give him a pass. I’m a believer in Underwood. I tend to defend him. Actually, I didn’t bet Illinois, I leaned that way. I saw the bracket percentages and just betting splits. Everyone’s on Arkansas here and I think it makes sense. Musselman’s track record. The tournament’s a little more impressive. They’re guards are light years better than Illinois’s who are young, talented but still freshmen, where Arkansas has blue chip, five star lottery pick guys. But I remember I talked about Illinois being a legit tournament dark horse back in November because of the way they’re constructed. We saw them on neutral sites here actually in Vegas, play really well against UCLA and against Texas. It feels like decades ago. I don’t know if they can still channel that level today, but I do lean their way. I think they’re getting a little bit slept on.
TJ Reeves:
All right. Again, Illinois and Arkansas up in the afternoon coming up here in Des Moines in this matchup. Illinois, again, three losses in their last four games. Lost at Ohio State late in the year. Lost at Purdue late in the year. Lost to Penn State head-to-head in the Big 10 tournament for whatever that’s worth against Arkansas in this matchup. So no official play but some good discussion there on that eight, nine game in the West. Let’s move on here on the BetUS. A Thursday show, 16 games today. We’re going over a bunch of them here on the show, including another intriguing eight, nine game. This one in Birmingham. It’s the Midwest bracket. The winner most likely gets Houston, the number one seed.
Auburn, essentially a de facto home away from home situation here about an hour plus from their campus in Birmingham. Auburn lays a point and a half on the “neutral floor” against Iowa. 151.5 is our total. Matty Cox, I’m right back to you. A lot of people believe not only Auburn here but Auburn over a damaged Houston team as well. We look in the upper right-hand corner of that Midwest bracket. That’s where Auburn and Iowa are. Winner to likely again get Houston. Matty Cox, a thought on Auburn Tigers and this situation with Iowa out of the Big 10?
Matty Cox:
Yeah, I’m not putting a ton of stock in the quasi home court, because I think a lot of people are going to go to this game from Alabama are probably Alabama fans or UAB fans, which will actually be rooting against Auburn here. So you may get a kind of a galvanizing of the crowd in the rooting against Auburn. I know Fran McCaffrey has had multiple, numerous shortcomings in the tournament just last year against Richmond, kind of flopped. I actually like Iowa here today. And very simply, I’ve just been out on this Auburn team all season. I don’t trust their guard play. If I knew their guards would reliably go inside and play to their strengths, I think Auburn should win by seven, 10 comfortably, but what they can do is take bad shots, lead to long rebounds, which kick-starts Iowa’s transition attack. They can corral the boards and that’s where Iowa’s most lethal. Transition threes, the way they pass in the open floor. I think Iowa’s actually a pretty good bet here. I’m kind of against the general consensus on this one as well on the eight, nine.
TJ Reeves:
All right, again, just for clarification. And Matty, this is how it works with the tournament two. There are two separate sessions. Alabama’s in the early session, which will be a big pro-Alabama crowd, if not most of the arena, the Legacy Arena in Birmingham downtown. It is a separate ticket and a separate session where it’s believed Auburn will have 3,000, 5,000 maybe more in the night session. You’re right, a lot of the Alabama fans bought both session tickets. Will they boo the Auburn Tigers? We don’t know. Kyle Hunter, we come to you for a thought or two including on the total eight, nine even matchup by design from the committee. Thoughts on this one, Auburn and Iowa?
Kyle Hunter:
Yeah, I’ll say first I don’t like the chances of either of these teams of beating Houston in the second game. I don’t think that’s a good matchup for them, so I wouldn’t be one of them that would think that would be an upset.
TJ Reeves:
Can I interject? Even if Sasser’s not playing, and right now we don’t know if Sasser’s going to play in the first game tonight with Northern Kentucky, but if Sasser’s not playing, does that knock Houston down a peg in a matchup against Iowa or Auburn?
Kyle Hunter:
I’m sure it makes it more competitive. I would assume he will play in that game. If he doesn’t, I still think they’ll win that game. I think Memphis is a tougher matchup for them than either of these two teams would be. So having said that, I think this maybe is the best overplay if I was going to bet something in this game. I think the tempo will be pretty quick. Auburn can’t get defensive rebounds. I will be at the line a lot. Both teams should get some second chance opportunities. [inaudible 00:13:58] McCaffrey is good for at least a couple of game. McCaffrey’s teams haven’t had much success in March in general at Iowa, and this Iowa team’s weaker than others. I would’ve thought I wanted to fade Iowa, but Auburn’s not the team I want to fade them with. So both teams that I’d like to fade but they’re playing each other, can’t bet a side on this one for me. So I’m leaning to the over thinking this will be a bit of a track meet.
TJ Reeves:
Well, again, a coaching advantage though probably for Bruce Pearl. I think it has to be a coaching advantage. He was in the Final Four with Auburn in 2019, has head success in the tournament before with Tennessee and even going back to Wisconsin, Milwaukee, having them in the Sweet 16. I think that’s advantage Bruce Pearl and Auburn and again, this is a sexy pick right now to not only win this game but beat Houston as damaged goods. We’ll see what the Cougars look like later on tonight in their matchup with Northern Kentucky. They shouldn’t have much problem even without Sasser in that matchup, but for this game, not an official play. Very interesting though on what kind of pro-Auburn crowd will be there in Birmingham. Again, thank you for finding us. We’re live here today at 11:00 AM Eastern Time. We’re live tomorrow at 11:00 AM Eastern Time.
Hit that like button, make sure you’re subscribed. I believe by the end of this weekend we can get to 5,000 subs. We can do that with your help. We’re almost there right now. Hit subscribe. Make sure that you get notified when the show is coming out. And by the way, savages we’ll be here Saturday as well. Special live Saturday show at 11:00 AM as well. So you get some tomorrow, you get some more on Saturday. We’re here for you all through The Big Dance and all the way to the Final Four.
All right, next game up. It’s back to the pod in Orlando, and this will be an East Regional matchup between Duke and Oral Roberts. Duke off the ACC Conference title game victory over Virginia. They are six point favorites over Oral Roberts that has the nation’s longest win streak. Fantastic score. Max Abmus the Player of the Year again in the Summit Conference. It was two years ago that Oral Roberts pulled all the upsets. All right, six point spread for Duke. The total is 146 in this one. Kyle Hunter, I’m back to you for thoughts on Duke and ORU coming Thursday night in Orlando?
Kyle Hunter:
So TJ, you’re going to get to see this game in person. This is a fantastic matchup. I think this is one of the best first round matchups. What a tough game. I would’ve thought I wanted to bet Oral Roberts before I saw the bracket. And then I see Duke against them and I don’t know what to do in a game like this because Filipowski is playing as well as anybody. Duke’s defense is very good. Abmus is must-see TV certainly. I think the question is how Vanover plays in a game like this? The 7’5″ center for Oral Roberts. Can he stay out of foul trouble? I would assume Duke will go after him, try to get him in foul trouble early. That’s certainly what I would do. Duke is 10th in momentum in the country according to Haslametrics. Oral Roberts plays in a Summit League where nobody plays any defense in that league.
TJ Reeves:
True.
Kyle Hunter:
So what are they going to do against Duke’s defense that’s played very good? I could never be labeled a Duke fan, but I do think this is a difficult matchup for Oral Roberts. Can Abmus take over the game? How effective will Vanover be? I’m going to lean to the under thinking that Duke defense slows down Oral Roberts a bit in this game. Maybe even a first half under. This fits a first half under of totals of 65 or higher. Have gone 54.8% to the under in the last 10 years in the NCAA Tournament. So I’m going to lean to the first half under here.
TJ Reeves:
Interesting. I know we’ve been talking all week about Jeremy Roach is going to primarily be on Abmus in the one-on-one matchup. How much does he slow him down? Does Oral Roberts have another scoring threat besides Abmus if he’s having an off day or can’t get his shots off? Matty Cox, a thought here because a lot of belief is Duke has momentum right now. Thoughts on this one this evening?
Matty Cox:
Yeah, a major one. I mean I have Duke going to the final game. This is just the hardest part of the entire bracket in my opinion. Duke, Oral Roberts. You have Memphis, FAU. I mean good luck to Purdue. They get absolutely hosed here in my opinion.
TJ Reeves:
Hm.
Matty Cox:
I do have Duke prevailing, but I did bet Oral Roberts full game small here. I worry about the Vanover matchup for Duke’s base lineup, which is either Dereck Lively and then Ryan Young off the bench as their quasi five man. Coach Scheyer has not used Filipowski as a five man center much this season at all. But in this game I don’t think he has a choice. Vanover’s whole thing is he can spread you and pick and pop and drain from 25, 28 and that’s just not where Duke’s comfortable guarding with Lively and Young. So if Scheyer’s stubborn, I worry that Oral Roberts comes out and it hits him in the mouth pretty quick. So he needs to adjust quickly. If he does, I think Duke rolls pretty easily though.
TJ Reeves:
All right, Matty Cox doing well with the PA announcements, et cetera going on in the background. You see as we look at the East bracket, that Duke matchup is right in the middle there against Oral Roberts, the winner to get the winner of Tennessee and Louisiana battling there playing in Orlando as well on the late game on Thursday night. All right, so again, Kyle Hunter gives some good advice. We haven’t talked a lot about first half unders. Maybe this is a first half underplay here with them getting used to the Amway Center in Orlando where the Orlando Magic play. Duke sure has been rolling ever since the Carolina win in Chapel Hill late in the year and now through the ACC tournament. Let’s see what happens in this one. No official play from the handicappers. You see on the screen, you have got a mere 30 or 40 minutes to get in on the BetUSTV.com Mayhem Bracket Challenge.
Do that right now by going to BetUSTV.com/mayhem. The link is also in the description right below us. Act now. You’ve got a chance to win. Somebody could win a million dollars and there’s a bunch of other prizes right below that. Get in by simply depositing $100. A $100 deposit gets you a bracket in the Mayhem Challenge and every $100 separate deposit after that gets you another bracket. So fill out a couple of them if you want here before all the games begin.
This thing locks as we’re live here on Thursday in about 40 minutes at 12:00 Eastern Time, so get in on the Mayhem Challenge. All right, let’s move on. We will get to some questions and answers live, but we’re covering most of the games here on Thursday. That includes Colgate and Texas. This one coming up in the Midwest bracket where Texas is the two seed, Colgate, obviously the 15 seed. Texas favored by 13.5 points in this matchup with a total of 151. And Matty Cox, I’m going to come right back to you. This game is this evening. It is in the Midwest bracket in Des Moines. Texas fresh off that Big 12 title game win over Kansas. Thoughts and an official play coming here peeps. Pay attention. Matty Cox, it’s yours.
Matty Cox:
Yeah, pardon the PA behind me here. But Colgate first half, a coach who’s coaching for his job at a quasi tryout and Rodney Terry versus a coach who has experience in the tournament in Matt Langel. I side with Langel here. The concern with full game is that the athleticism and the elite speed of Texas just plays out over the course of the game. And Texas goes on a massive run in the second half just as Arkansas did to Colgate two years ago once Colgate kind of poked the bear. But I think Colgate’s offense and intricate stuff that they run, will kind of have Texas on their toes to start. If they’re hitting shots, they’ll ride that momentum. I don’t think Colgate can keep up for 40 minutes, but I think they can certainly punch Texas in the mouth once or twice in the first twenty. So taking Colgate first half plus 7.5.
TJ Reeves:
Interesting. And they’re a good shooting team, Kyle Hunter as we come to you for this one. Here we go on the whole first half under thing, he’s taking a line in the first half. Thoughts on Texas trying to carry the momentum off the Big 12 title game win? I will just point out very famously before we get to your comment, that Missouri won their final Big 12 tournament in dashing fashion about a decade ago before going to the SEC. They beat Kansas in the title game, and then they promptly got a two seed and got beat by Norfolk State. The momentum did not carry over a few days later. Will it carry over for Texas? How dangerous, Kyle Hunter is Colgate? A thought real quick.
Kyle Hunter:
Yeah, but before I knew that Matt was going to take the first half on Colgate when I was putting together some notes for this, I put first half Colgate question mark. I mean I think that’s what I like the best in a game like this. Because Colgate is so well coached. We know they’re going to get good shots. I think Langel is one of the more underrated coaches. Probably going to get a bigger job here pretty soon. This is a Colgate team that’s going to be ready to go. Let’s think about the last three times they’ve been in The Big Dance. Last year against Wisconsin they had the lead in the second half. Against Arkansas a couple years ago, had the lead in the second half. And then four years ago I guess would be against Tennessee. They had the lead in the second half also.
This team is going to play well. They’re going to play their style. They’re going to get good shots. They shoot the ball very well. The question is can they get enough stops? I don’t think their defense is very good. They’re a good system for big spreads in the first round. I’m taking the under. I can’t take the under in a game like this ’cause I think both teams have plenty of options to score in a game like this. Colgate offense is a thing of beauty. First in the country in catch and shoot threes. They can’t stop anyone though. Auburn had 93 points on them. Duquesne had 85 points. I think a Colgate consistent team that doesn’t hurt itself. First half is a good option here.
TJ Reeves:
Man, our live audience continues to soar and we see people in the live chat loving Colgate either on the first half. Couple people love them outright to win this game with the three point shooting. I don’t know that I’d go that far. Texas has played in the most rugged conference in America. I think that’s going to be worth something, especially in the second half of this game. It will be interesting to watch all of this unfold with Colgate and Texas. The official play is Matty Cox and his play on Colgate in the first half plus 7.5 in the matchup there in the Midwest bracket two versus 15.
All right, let’s continue. Another game that is up later on tonight is Boise State and Northwestern in a seven, 10 matchup that’s coming. Northwestern, a short one and a half point favorite. 128 is our total in this game that is coming up later on this evening. That matchup very interesting with the season that Northwestern has had. Boise State obviously had a good year as well in the Mountain West. This game in Sacramento, California, 4:30 start time, 7:35 Eastern Time. Kyle Hunter, your first official play. What do we have in the matchup with the Broncos and the Northwestern Wildcats?
Kyle Hunter:
Yeah, first I think this is an amazing matchup. I’m looking forward to watching this game. It’s not going to be that up and down game that we’re going to see in several other games, but I think this is going to be a good X’s and O’s matchup. Both coaches are solid coaches. Boo Buie gets all the attention for Northwestern. I think Chase Audige is a really good player as well, especially defensively. The Wildcats defense is underrated. I like their ability to trap and give Boise State’s post offense some trouble in a game like this. Boise’s defense is excellent. I think Northwestern will have a hard time creating offensive good looks here.
Buie will need to be very good. He’s very streaky. He is very capable certainly, but he can get in some slumps as well. Northwestern takes a lot of threes. They’re not that good at those 3 point shots. Boise’s 32nd in the nation in three point defense. I think neither team gets good looks in a game like this. Both defense is good at not giving up second chance points, not fouling very much. The total’s low, but it’s low for a good reason. I think this is one of those grinders back and forth, low scoring close game. I’m going to take the under in this one.
TJ Reeves:
All right, first time that we get Kyle in here on and under for the game total. Matty Cox, thoughts on this one all the way out in Sacramento? Will Boise have some fans there? They’re originally closer. Will it be kind of a neutral, quieter arena on a Thursday afternoon? Thoughts, Matty Cox on Boise State, Northwestern?
Matty Cox:
Yeah, I love the under angle here as well. I think it’s just two very defensively sound teams. Two good coaches and a strong coach for a strong coach. I know Chris Collins has been kind of framed as a bad coach, but I don’t know. It’s hard to argue with what he’s done this year, especially with how they’ve rebranded that team. Love the under angle. Keep an eye on Tyson Degenhart though for Boise. He’s kind of a mismatch nightmare on old school game. Tough to guard if you hadn’t seen him before. I do like Boise on the side by a hair, but nothing strong here for me.
TJ Reeves:
Degenhart, again is a great scorer. But in their Friday night semi-final game for what it’s worth with Utah State, he went cold. They went cold in the second half, they got beat. You go cold now in these one game scenarios in March, it’s over. Let’s see what happens on the neutral floor. And the play belongs here to Kyle Hunter. Officially, it’s an under in this matchup, Boise State battling here with Northwestern as this one comes up on Thursday night. That one again is part of the West Regional where the winner of this game in that seven, 10 matchup will get the winner of UCLA and UNC Asheville. That’s what awaits on Saturday for whoever wins in this one. Few more minutes before we get to your Q&A. We see we got a couple of games left that are going to have discussion and official plays.
Then we’ll get to some Q&A before we’re done. Man, it is a busy show and I see that live audience growing. Hit that like button. Make sure you’re subscribed while we talk about Louisiana and Tennessee. This is back in Orlando. This will be the final game on the floor Thursday night in Orlando. It does come out of the East bracket. Tennessee, limping in figuratively and literally without their star point guard, Zakai Zeigler. All right, Louisiana winners of the Sunbelt Tournament. Talented big man down in the low post. It’s still an 11 point spread here. Tennessee favored by 11. How about that? On the neutral floor in Orlando total is 136. Matty Cox, give me a quick thought on this one tonight with the SEC against the Sunbelt?
Matty Cox:
Yeah, I just have nightmares from backing Tennessee confidently in tournaments past. Oregon State first round comes to mind. So I’ve kind of been scared off backing Rick Barnes during the tournament ever since then. However, look what happened last year. They put the herd on Longwood and I think they can do the same with Louisiana. Just a bad matchup. You have to throw zone at Tennessee. You can’t play straight up with athletes against them. They’re just not good enough to hang with Tennessee’s athletes, so I think the Vols actually roll here.
TJ Reeves:
Kyle Hunter, I know you have been fading Rick Barnes all the time, late in the year every year. By the way, his tournament record is 25 and 26, 51 games. He’s below 500. Jordan Brown is the dominant low post player for Louisiana. Brown goes to the free throw line a ton. Brown has been to the foul line twice as much as any other Tennessee player by the way. That could be a factor in this one. Kyle Hunter, any thoughts? And it is a double-digit lay number for Tennessee.
Kyle Hunter:
Well, I mean I do have to say Rick Barnes is eight and 19 against the spread in the NCAA Tournament in his last 27. The guy is 39% ATS from game 22 of the season on. Not a guy you want to trust. Having said that, I don’t think Louisiana matches up very well in a game like this. Jordan Brown’s great. He doesn’t have enough help in my opinion. Also playing in the Sunbelt in the front court, he can do some major damage, where Tennessee’s going to have some guys to go up against him that he’s not used to going up against. Louisiana played a really weak non-conference schedule. Lost by 12 to Drake, 28 to Texas. I think Tennessee wins here, but I can’t lay the points with Rick Barnes. No way. Looking ahead, I would like Duke against Tennessee in round two. Oral Roberts would have a chance certainly too.
TJ Reeves:
There is back and forth in the chat. Some people saying, “Give me Louisiana Lafayette for the upset.” Others are saying, “Tennessee will cover.” Others are saying, “Tennessee can’t beat anybody by 11 points right now.” And they have been hobbled at the end of this year, figuratively and literally with the injury. They’re not the same team with Zeigler not in there. Let’s see what happens in this matchup tonight. I do know this, that for the Vol fans, they have been frustrated over not getting to the second weekend of the tournament and doing damage the last couple of years. They need a win here. Rick Barnes needs a win here to quell some of that in Knoxville. This one, again, a late night game tonight with Louisiana and Tennessee. We do not have an official play on this one, but let’s see if the Ragin’ Cajuns, Louisiana, Lafayette, ULL.
Let’s see what they have for Tennessee here tonight. One more game to go and then we’re going to get into some Q&A on the other games that we haven’t talked about as of yet. That one game remaining is another seven, 10 matchup. This one in the Midwest bracket. It is Texas A&M and Penn State with A&M laying 2.5. One of the hottest teams down the stretch of the season in college basketball. Texas A&M in the SEC, total 134.5. Let’s begin the discussion right back with you Kyle Hunter. We saw Penn State make a run into the Big 10 championship game against Purdue before falling, but they played good basketball in Chicago. What are your thoughts and give me an official play on Nittany Lions, Aggies.
Kyle Hunter:
Yeah, first I think Texas A&M was kind of hosed to be in this position. A seven seed, the community didn’t like them last year. They don’t like them again this year. And Penn State’s a good 10 seed. Jalen Pickett’s fantastic. Best playmaker in the Big 10. He’s also a good scorer himself. He can set up guys. He’s third in the nation in assist rate. He shoots 38% from three and they have three other guys who shoot 40% or higher. Penn State’s so efficient on offense. They’re 13th in effective field goal percentage offense. Texas A&M relies heavily on getting to the free throw line offensively.
Penn State does a pretty good job of defending without fouling, so something has to give there. I think this total’s gotten awfully low, especially for the efficiency that I expect to see. Penn State doesn’t play that fast, but I think Penn State is going to make some shots. Nobody in the SEC can shoot threes. Penn State’s much better shooting threes than the teams Texas A&M’S been playing against. I think Penn State’s going to make some of those open threes that Texas A&M’s been giving up, and they’ve gotten away with it. In this one I’m going to say Penn State team total over, thinking that Penn State does knock down those shots between Pickett, Lundy, Wynter, those guys, I think they’re going to make some threes.
TJ Reeves:
All right, again, this one a night game coming up in the Midwest bracket, even though these teams will be playing here in Des Moines. Does Penn State get a little bit of an advantage from playing in the Midwest? What kind of fans are there? We’ve talked all week, Texas A&M underseeded here. They beat six teams in the net top 30 at the end of the year, including one on the neutral floor in Nashville. They beat Alabama at the end of the year. Didn’t get a lot of love from the committee about winning games down the stretch of the season. Matty Cox, thoughts and an official play from you on Aggie’s here in the matchup with Penn State?
Matty Cox:
Yeah, I think Kyle hit the key point. The ability to knock down open threes is something that A&M hasn’t really been tested with all conference season. And look at the SEC shooting split, it’s one of the worst shooting conferences in America. They’ve been kind of a house of cards on defense all year in my opinion. I think Penn State exploits it today, especially with the inverted offense for Jalen Pickett, Booty Ball as they’re calling it. But in general I think keep an eye on the SEC fade angle against teams that can shoot. Utah State and Mizzou. We saw [inaudible 00:33:25] knock down shots [inaudible 00:33:26] State and still eek out that one. So that’s my angle here with Penn State.
TJ Reeves:
All right, let’s lock the guys in. Two official plays on this Thursday night matchup in Des Moines, Iowa. Kyle Hunter says Penn State team total. He wants points, he wants it over 66 points with the way they’ve been playing. And in Matty Cox’s case, he’s on the side. He’s believing in Micah Shrewsberry, the former Matt Painter Assistant, and Penn State to keep their momentum going here against a hot Texas A&M team. Buzz Williams has experience winning games in the NCAA Tournament previously at both Virginia Tech and Marquette. Let’s see if it continues. But Matty has Penn State on the side for the official plays. All right, we’re about ready for the Q&A. You have 30 minutes or a little less to get in the BetUSTV.com Mayhem Bracket Challenge. You see it right there on the screen. You can go to the link down in the description below us.
Get in with a $100 deposit. You get an entry. And for every separate $100 deposit you make you get another entry. You could win one million dollars. There’s all kinds of other prizes. You’ve got a half hour as you watch us live in the 11:00 AM Eastern Time hour here on Thursday to get in before it’s locked for good. Once the games begin here on Thursday that’s it. So get in the bracket challenge. There’s one more reminder on that. All right, Q&A time for things that we have yet to discuss as of yet. Gas Station Sushi is watching us. We did not talk specifically about the number in the Houston, Northern Kentucky game. Houston is heavily favored by 16 on the BetUS line. Gas Station Sushi is interested in the over. It’s 121 for the total. Kyle Hunter, a thought on the total in that one versus 16 matchup?
Kyle Hunter:
Love the name first. Northern Kentucky and Houston. Houston’s going to be playing volleyball and offensive boards. I think they could probably get back half their missed shots in a game like this. It wouldn’t surprise me at all. I couldn’t take the points with Northern Kentucky. I could only lay it with Houston if I was playing. However, over is a bit scary to me. I think the pace here will be extremely slow. Northern Kentucky wants to slow the game down. Houston’s fine with slow pace games. I don’t want to bet an under, but I think over is also tricky. I think Houston wins pretty easy in a game like this.
TJ Reeves:
All right, a lot of people are asking about Friday. We will talk a lot about Friday tomorrow on the show. If you have questions about anything Thursday that we have not covered, pop one of those in the chat. I’m looking for another game that we haven’t talked about as of yet. Okay, so somebody does have a question. Thank you. It is Mark. Mark has a question about Princeton and Arizona. We’ve not talked about the two seed Arizona against Princeton here. That’s a big line. 14.5, a total of 154. Matty Cox, a thought on the Wildcats off the PAC 12 title win playing against Princeton here?
Matty Cox:
Yeah, I like Princeton first half, same angle as my Colgate rationale against Texas. I think it’s a nuanced complex offense that a team that hasn’t seen that, they struggle to defend early on. It’ll look like the men versus the boys I think second half when Arizona exerts their size and strength up front. But I think first half Princeton can make some shots. A very deep balance team and Tosan is a mismatched nightmare. Kind of that point forward spot brings up the ball, can play inside out through him. So looking to target Princeton first half.
TJ Reeves:
Good stuff, Kyle. Any thought on that for Princeton and Arizona? That is an afternoon game at 1:00 Pacific Time in Sacramento.
Kyle Hunter:
I think Princeton tries to slow down the pace here. Maybe even a first half under with them looking to stall things out a bit in a game like this. Arizona has some turnover issues on offense that hurts their efficiency at times. I do think it’s a little tricky to know how Princeton’s going to do, especially in a full game ’cause they really haven’t played anybody good. Their strength and schedule the last couple years has been so weak. I just think that they are well coached enough. They probably can hang around for a little bit, but I think first half under would be my lean in that game.
TJ Reeves:
TJ question. Alabama on the floor in about three hours here with Texas A&M, Corpus Christi. We saw the Islanders win a first four game on Tuesday night. They were impressive in that initial matchup with Southeast Missouri State. This is not Southeast Missouri State. This is one of the top teams in college basketball with Brandon Miller and it’s a defacto home game in Birmingham for the Tide. They will have the whole arena on Thursday afternoon. Matty Cox, any thought? It’s a large number at 24. Any thought or just stay away? What about it?
Matty Cox:
Yeah, big number. It’s been bet up to at two points. I still like Bama. I think this one gets out of control. I also saw that bet where you can lay the max margin any game. It was up to 39.5. If you’re going to bet that, I think this is the game where you get there. Corpus Christi likes to get out and run.
TJ Reeves:
Have you ever laid 39.5 points in any game on anything?
Matty Cox:
No, but it…
TJ Reeves:
That’s my guy.
Matty Cox:
Last year it hit. I think it’s hit two of the last three years. It’s a pretty good wager actually. That and the one of the 15 seeds to win at plus 160 or 170.
TJ Reeves:
Wow.
Matty Cox:
But anyway, yeah, back to this game. I think it’s a complete blowout start to finish. No chance for the Islanders here. Tough travel too coming off the first four game not so long ago.
TJ Reeves:
Kyle. Any thoughts? Same kind of thing. Massive line. Any thought on the total or anything here or stay away on Alabama?
Kyle Hunter:
Yeah, it’s tough to bet Alabama totals for me. They do take a lot of threes. They play so fast but they’re very good on defense. The Islanders haven’t seen any kind of defense like this, and the pace is going to bother them. I think Alabama laying the points would be my lean, and I’m not a fan of laying a ton of points, but I think this is a bad matchup for the Islanders.
TJ Reeves:
All right, one more game that we’ve not talked about is UCLA. The two seed had such a great regular season. They’ve got veteran players. Now they have the injury too, I believe it’s Brown, right? Jaylen Brown, the defensive player that’s not there. They still have Jaquez, they still have Tyger Campbell, the point guard. They’ve got some weapons. UCLA and UNC Asheville. I saw that Asheville team. I worked the Big South title game on national radio. Drew Pember, the seven footer. The transfer from Tennessee can put it on the floor. Got a quick first step. Can shoot the three. Large number here, Kyle Hunter. Any thoughts on the neutral floor in Sacramento for UCLA and UNC Asheville? We see Toby asking about it there as well, including the total. Anything on that, Kyle Hunter, just real quick?
Kyle Hunter:
Yeah, Jaylen Clark a huge injury for UCLA. And Adem Bona not in good shape either. I don’t believe he’s going to play. Matt, you can correct me if I’m wrong on that. I don’t think he’ll play in this game. This is a UCLA team. It is kind of a case of what could have been. I would’ve had UCLA winning the bracket if they had been healthy going into this. Really like Jaquez a lot. Fantastic. I think Jaquez and Pember is going to be a great showdown. I’m looking forward to that one. I think Pember’s probably an NBA player in the future. At 100% full strength UCLA laying the points maybe, but at this point I lean under. But UCLA’s defense is hurt quite a bit by those two guys being out. So nothing too strong for me here.
TJ Reeves:
And thank you for the pickup on Jaylen Clark. I’ve been watching too much of the NBA show for Jaylen Brown. Matty Cox, quick take here on UCLA and Asheville, including it’s a large number for the Bruins, and a lot of people have been looking at that and staring at that on UNC Asheville to keep it close. I’m not sure if we have lost Matty Cox, if he is a silhouette for us. It appears that it might be. We’ll just have to imagine what he thinks about Asheville and UCLA. That is the last game of the night tonight in Sacramento of the 16th. All right, with that, great stuff on the Q&A.
Let’s take a look at the best bets and see what the handicaps are on one more time here as we take a look at the end of the show at what they are both playing. Kyle has got a total in the Boise State, Northwestern game. He’s got a team total for Penn State in their matchup with Texas A&M. Matty Cox going here with Colgate on a first half side and then Penn State also on the side as well. 16 games that are about to commence. We are thrilled for all of this to get underway. Kyle Hunter, a final thought here on the show, my friend?
Kyle Hunter:
Yeah, final thought. Matt and I aligned on quite a few things today. So we either going to do really good together or we’re going to have a rough day. Hopefully it’s a good day for everybody and everybody enjoy the madness. This is a fantastic time of the year. Love March Madness. Tough to not be excited about a day like this. So let’s go get some winners and have a good day.
TJ Reeves:
I’m with you on that. And Matty Cox, you see there on the silhouette. Do well in Las Vegas and we’ll check in with him again at another point. Let’s do this again tomorrow at 11:00 AM. Kyle, you’ll be with me. We will have results from Thursday. We’ve got 16 more games to get to on Friday. Hit that like button, make sure you’re subscribed. Good luck with the plays. Here we go. Throw the ball up in the air at four sites today, 16 games today. It’s all about to get underway. Kevin and everybody at BetUS, great job with all the graphics, with all the stuff. We are amped. Let’s see what happens. Don’t forget to check out our sportsbook website. And we’re back tomorrow on the BetUS College Basketball Show.
