Speaker 1:
Now you have certainly got that right. Let me go ahead and tell you if you are in the chat already, you’ll see that there is an NCAAF odds boost of course over at BetUS. Liberty to score 31 plus points against Toledo was plus 250. It is now plus 300 over at BetUS. So if you want to take advantage of that, make sure that you head over to BetUS. Let me go on and tell you, make sure that you are subscribed to the show. We are still trying to grow these numbers, so please go ahead and do that. You have to be subscribed to be able to get into the chat. And of course we already see Scott, we already see Richard, we already see Gorgon. We’ve got a bunch of guys in there. The chat is maybe the best part of the show. And so if you have joined us live, make sure that you jump in over there. With that, like the video and make sure that you are subscribed to the podcast as well.
The BetUS Football Show, it is both the NFL and the college feed, all right there in one tiny little package, very neatly wrapped for Christmas. You can get both of them, all of your football needs each week right there in that feed. Make sure that you of course leave a nice five star written review over at Apple or Spotify or whatever your favorite podcast app is. Let me make sure we got the notes. Oh yeah, jump in the chat for the Q and A at the end of the show. Now let me remind everybody, we will be hitting on every single bowl game this season. So can ask questions about bowl games that are coming up a little further into the future, but we’re going to hit them anyway. And so maybe talk about some of the games that are going on, some of the coaching hires that, some of the playoff talks, the futures, et cetera if you want to.
But whatever question you got, go ahead and toss it into that chat and we will do it at the end of the show. Let’s hop into our recap. We’re going to tell you exactly what we have done thus far on the season and bowl season has not treated myself nor Parker kindly, but Kyle is doing well at one and one thus far. Parker and I both owing two thus far. On the season, I am sitting at 48, 37 and three. Kyle is 30 and 28, Parker 40 46 and one that gives us a record of 118, 111 and four thus far. So 51.53%, not bad, but we are looking to obviously improve that record. So why don’t we go ahead and get started. We’re moving into the first game here of the day, Friday, December 23rd, 3:00 PM Eastern time on ESPN, the Independence Bowl, Louisiana against Houston.
Houston a seven point favorite. The total sits at 56 and a half, latest numbers at BetUS. This is an Independence Stadium in Shreveport Louisiana and gentlemen, Houston is six and three straight-up all time against Louisiana. I don’t know that that trend necessarily matters in this game. Parker, I’m going to start with you here. Houston is four and 0 against the spread in their last four against Sun-Belt competition. But they were one in four against the spread down the stretch of this season. Louisiana won in four against the spread in their last five bowl games, but they’ve got a brand-new coach. Might be a little bit motivated here to get a W. The Louisiana quarterback Ben Wooldridge is out, so Chandler Fields is going to get the start. He did start the last two games with mediocre numbers for sure. There’s some things that certainly lean Houston’s way as far as numbers go, but I’m curious what your numbers say and what you maybe think about this ball game.
Speaker 2:
Yes, if you’re going to handicap this, you certainly got to get into Houston’s motivation and their history and I’m certain that Kyle has some words on that as he goes. But just looking at the numbers, especially looking at how bad Louisiana’s pass offense has been, playing with the backup quarterback is only going to make that harder of a hole for them to dig out of. They’re 100 first in EPA per pass compared to 61st in EPA per rush, but they’re rushing about 2.8% less than the average team. So very pass aggressive, but their pass offense has not been very efficient overall and not very successful. 104th in passing success rate compared to 42nd and rushing success rate on offense. Houston’s defense relative to where they were a year ago for sure is kind of been a disappointment this year. And definitely not as much athleticism in the secondary and not as much physicality upfront has really left them vulnerable. They’re 87th in defensive passing success rate there.
So it’s good for Louisiana, I suppose, that their weakness is also Houston’s weakness on offense there and maybe they can create some separation. The problem is going to be the other side of the ball, so Houston obviously very pass forward 16th and rush rate over expected. They’re ninth in offensive EPA per play, 13th in the past 22nd in the rush. That’s going to be an issue for Louisiana who’s 17th in the pass, which is pretty good, but they’re 85th in EPA per rush. When we see a big split, what do we think? There’s some selection issues there. I think that Houston’s offense will certainly be able to string out this Louisiana defense really stress test it, and that’ll be a matchup that I think is really important to watch. Can the run game for Houston be super efficient enough to string out whatever positivity this Louisiana defense has in the pass game overall?
One other thing that Louisiana’s really bad at is finishing drives. They’re 22nd in quality possession rate allowed, but they’re 80th in points per quality possession. Houston, on the other hand ranking 10th, 4.82 points per quality possession. So just on the numbers, this one looks pretty lopsided in favor of Houston. I am a little bit nervous about Dana Holgorsen in a situation where motivation might be a question. But strictly the analytics, strictly the spot here, Houston’s rush and pass mix on offense should be overwhelming to Louisiana’s defense. And Louisiana’s offense might not have enough in the tank to make this competitive.
Speaker 1:
Yeah, I tended to lean your direction. Tank Dell has declared for the NFL, but he plans to play here. Kyle, we’re going to move to you, since week eight Houston’s offense is number two in PPA per drive, number one in PPA per pass. Louisiana’s defense is number 67 in that metric there. Houston number nine in points per scoring opportunity. Louisiana’s defense is number 115 since week eight. So certainly some things that lean Houston’s way and there’s one… Maybe you can look at this turnovers, is certainly a big deal in ballgames. Houston on the season number 114 in turnover margin. Louisiana is number 30, so there’s a big difference there. But again, this kind of comes down to motivation, et cetera. Who really wants to be there? Kyle, what is your feel on this one?
Speaker 3:
Yeah, my handicap here has little to do with numbers and more to do about motivation and the spot here. It’s the Independence Bowl, Louisiana gets to play pretty close to home. They have to care about this game, this game matters to them for sure. The question is does it matter to Houston? I think the answer is probably no. Dana Holgorsen said he wants to focus really heavily on recruiting during this time. And some of his quotes, Houston’s not even going to get their maximum allowed practices from the end of the season to this one. So I don’t know that they’re that heavily invested. And I know a lot of people around the program have said Holgorsen in general has not really prepped for the bowl game as much as he kind of gets ready for the next year with some of these practices. I think that if you look at Holgorsen’s record in bowl games, it says a lot.
He’s two and seven against the spread. They covered last year by a point or two, before that he had lost seven in a row. Most of them weren’t close. So I don’t think I can trust Dana Holgorsen and this team. I think I’m going to get a good effort out of Louisiana. I don’t think they’re a really good team. I think Houston will have a little bit more trouble passing than some people think because Louisiana’s secondary is a good secondary. Chris Brown will play here for Louisiana, I would expect him to run a lot. I think they’ll probably have some success. Derrick Parrish is out on the defensive line for Houston. He’s a big loss, certainly. I think Houston will score some points here, but we’ve seen Houston score a lot of points, get a lot of yards and lose games before. I think they could do it again here.
Louisiana close to home with the new coach, I think they care about this one. I’ll take the points and if you take the points in this one, I think you want to put something on the money line because there are lots of scenarios where you could see, obviously Houston could win by a decent amount and I look like an idiot. But at the same time I think Louisiana could win this game. Houston is the more talented team. I’m not going to say they’re not, but I don’t know that Houston cares nearly as much as Louisiana. So I’m going to take the Ragin’ Cajuns here.
Speaker 1:
So let’s make it official. Kyle is going to roll Louisiana plus the seven here, and I can’t disagree. We’ve got a long track record of Dana Holgorsen’s record in bowl games. This is another one of those spots. How much do you really want to spend the holidays in Shreveport, Louisiana? And that’s not saying anything bad about Shreveport, just saying Dana maybe has some other ideas up his sleeve. So we’ll move on to our next game we’re moving to later on Friday. The Gasparilla Bowl, Wake Forest, a one point favorite. The total sits at 58 and a half. This one in Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida. It’s a 6:30 PM Eastern time on ESPN and so it’s a little later in the afternoon. Wake Forest three and three against the spread, four and two straight up in their last six bowl games. They were one and four against the number in their last five games this season. Missouri, O and three, straight up.
One and two against the spread in their last three bowls, but they were two and two straight up and against the spread in their last four games. Kyle, I want to start with you here. We got some opt-out situations here. We’ve got Christian Turner, Wake Forest number two running back the defensive back, Holmes. They are both opting out for this one because of transferring. Missouri wide receiver Lovett, the defensive lineman, McGuire and Coleman and then the safety manual have opted out of the bowl. Missouri’s offense looked a lot better once Drinkwitz kind of turned play calling a little bit over to the quarterback coach. Brady Cook only throwing 44% of the time since week eight, but they’re number 18 in PPA per pass. Wake Forest defense is number 105. That is a big advantage for Missouri here. But at the same time you look at what Missouri’s defense has done, they feasted on New Mexico state, Arkansas, Kentucky, South Carolina without MarShawn lloyd. Vanderbilt was tossed in there. There’s a lot of questions here. I’m curious your thoughts on the Demon Deacons and of course the Missouri Tigers.
Speaker 3:
Yeah, I think when this game was first announced, I kind of thought that Sam Hartman might not play here so I considered betting the under right away. I think that bet the under looks like it would’ve been a good grab regardless. But this guy lines come down quite a bit. The quotes from Dave Clawson going into this game have been interesting to me. They’re really pumped to play an SEC team. They’re super fired up about that. We know Missouri hasn’t been there for too long, but still playing a team from a bigger conference. Clawson seems to really begetting a chip on these guy’s shoulders. ACC people doubt us. We’re going up against the SEC, here’s our chance. For Missouri, more opt-outs than I would’ve guessed, less than I would’ve guessed for Wake Forest. I think for Missouri the key is… I know Lovett being out is certainly a key. But the two best pass rushers on defense is pretty important.
Missouri’s defense has been good. I’ve been really impressed with what they did for the course of the season. But they’re missing their two best pass rushers on defense and one of their starting safety. So the question is can they stop Wake Forest here? I’m not really confident of that. Brady Cook has certainly played better of late. He looks better when he is able to take some shots downfield, which they weren’t doing much at all earlier in the year. The early weather forecast looks like it could be pretty windy for this game down to 39 degrees in Tampa, which I don’t think any one of us are going to feel too terrible for them being at 39 degrees. But for them that’s cold. They’re not going to know what to think there for sure.
Missouri team total under is my lean in this game. I think Lovett it’s a pretty big loss and Wake Forest defense is better than last year. The thing that scares me a bit about that is every so often we know that Sam Hartman has one of these games where you’re like, what is going on? Like Sam Hartman just completely lost the game. We saw it last year in the bowl game and we saw it against Louisville earlier this year. If it happens here, Missouri team total under could lose just because of Sam Hartman throwing pick sixes. So my lean is toward Wake Forest on the side here in this one. I just don’t feel strongly enough to pull the trigger.
Speaker 1:
I could understand that. Parker, we’ll move over to you on this Hartman and AT Perry both playing. Now I don’t know how much wind might negate that obviously because yeah, we got this whole polar vortex, whatever thing coming in, the Siberian Express that’s coming down. But Wake Forest number 14 in penalties per game. Missouri is number 118. Wake Forest offense is number 33 in red zone touchdown rate. Missouri’s defense is number 93 and that’s including all the guys that have now decided to opt out. There’s obviously things that point towards Wake Forest here, but yet this number has gone from three and a half down to one. How much do we think of SEC versus ACC in this? And Kyle mentioned this, Dave Clawson wanted an SEC team in the bowl game. Well, he got one, so I’m curious your thoughts here.
Speaker 2:
I do not want to touch Wake Forest with a 10-foot pole after what happened in the Louisville game where they had what, six in six turnovers in one quarter. They just completely blew a game away and since then they have not looked good at all. Even as their offense has scored, I just don’t trust this defense down the stretch here. I think they’re spiraling. Overall that defense is 97th in EPA per play, 110th against the pass and 49th against the rush. So people are able to just throw the ball against them at will. So I’m really reluctant to bet Wake Forest in the spot even though I like them by a good amount more than the spread. I think the recent trends make me really nervous. And you look at the split on Wake Forests offense, they’re 12th in EPA per pass, but they’re 105th in EPA per rush.
Wake Forest of course runs a ton of that slow mesh, lets the receivers get downfield, slow developing plays and they have an option to run or pass on that. I think that Missouri has a great defensive coaching staff. And I think that they’ve done a good job at times in the season being pretty annoying towards scheme, not towards athleticism. Like look at Tennessee, when you don’t have a dude you can’t do anything. But I think that Missouri might be able to defend the past and force Wake Forest to run more which they’re way less efficient at, and be pretty annoying here. So if you’re trying to talk yourself into Missouri, I think you’re making a scheme argument. But then again, their offense is 80th in EPA per play, 88th in run game and they’re passing 92nd most out of anyone. So they’re 3.9% rush rate over expected, high volume and low efficiency rushing doesn’t get me excited. Betting on Missouri here and I like their defense to be very annoying.
So kind of the same situation as the last game. My number tells me that Wake Forest is the pick. But man, with these recent trends, I’m very concerned about relying on them, especially with weird weather and bowl game and who’s going to take it seriously. So similar to Kyle, I’d say on the numbers slightly lean to Wake Forest. I think I’m a little gun shy on pulling the trigger on this one.
Speaker 1:
I am beyond a lean on Wake Forest. I think Wake Forest wins this game. And I’m not going to say handily but I do think that they have got more weapons, more motivation here, et cetera. I think that Wake Forest is a significantly better team since week eight of the season. Missouri’s defense number 68 PPA per pass and they are number 122 in passing explosiveness allowed. Now, we’ll see what the wind does here obviously, but Sam Hartman a bunch, number 20 PPA per pass. They throw the ball 57% of the time since week eight. So yes, the trends obviously not great here, but you get a few weeks off. Maybe reset a little bit. The fact that Sam Hartman and AT Perry are both going to play here. The fact that Dave Clawson really wanted an SEC team for this one, shows me that they are pretty motivated.
All the reports out of camp are that they are fired up for this one. I’m going to go with Wake Forest here. I like them minus the one, so we’ll make it official. Give me the Demon Deacons minus one on this one. All right, moving along. We’re going to Christmas Eve and my friends the Hawaii Bowl. That’s right, 8:00 PM Eastern Time on ESPN Hawaii. It is the Middle Tennessee versus San Diego State game. San Diego State, a seven point favorite. The total sits at 49 on this latest numbers at BetUS. This one’s in Honolulu, Hawaii. And this is at the… What is it? The T.C Ching Athletics Center complex thing that’s got the track around the field and whatever. Not a lot of fans going to be there, but we’ll just say that. Middle Tennessee two and five against the spread of their last seven bowl games.
They did win last year. However, outright as a double digit dog to Toledo and of course we had to get our Jason Candle reference in on the show today, but four in one straight up in their last five games. Two, two and one against the spread in those. San Diego State, four and two straight up and against the spread in their last six bowl games. Three and two straight up and against the spread in their last five games overall. Parker, I want to start with you here. MTSU looked good down the stretch. Stocks still has not been great in bowl games. But Middle Tennessee, their defense came on kind of strong late in the season. The offense obviously has been all right. Parker, tell me what do you think about the Blue Raiders here and the Aztecs?
Speaker 2:
The Middle Tennessee defense is legitimately okay and I mean that as a compliment. For a team like Middle Tennessee State, that’s just something they haven’t had as a decent unit. And so really good for them there to have a unit that’s 55th in EPA per play. But they are 31st against the rush and 78th against the pass. I’m wondering, looking at their last five FIU, FAU, Charlotte, Louisiana Tech, UTEP, if some of that success isn’t due to teams that weren’t as good passing the ball and a little bit more reliant on rushing and so they were able to bottle up those poor pass defenses. So there might be some selection issues with their schedule that’s inflating that, but the defense has done admirably against their schedule regardless there. I think the elite unit in this game is San Diego State’s defense, of course their 19th and EPA per play, their 36th against the pass and 20th against the rush.
That’s going to be really hard to mitigate for Middle Tennessee State. One reason that I’m not high on Middle Tennessee State in this game is that they’re 101st first on early downs EPA on offense, but San Diego State is 17th on early downs EPA on defense. San Diego State’s got a good defense. If you’re looking at second and nine, third and eight, those kind of long situations, things can unravel really quickly for you with a good defense. So I don’t trust Middle Tennessee State enough even if I do like their defense. I don’t think that their defense stopping San Diego state’s offense is really the issue in this game, that’s something that’s going to happen. A lot of people can stop San Diego State’s offense frankly. But I do think that, I don’t know that their defense is going to be able to do enough to really attack this San Diego State defense.
One more stat just because it’s fun, there is a huge difference in style here. Middle Tennessee State minus 8.4 rush rate over expected, that’s 19th in the country. San Diego State, 106, 5.7. Who’s going to control the pace? Who’s going to be able to dictate how they play this game I think is very important here.
Speaker 1:
I tend to agree with you, it’s San Diego State’s defense certainly the best unit on the field from either side here. Kyle, I want to move over to you. And neither one of these offenses can finish derives, San Diego State number 122 points per scoring opportunity since week eight. And Middle Tennessee, number 102 in that same metric. So I can’t really count on either one of these. Parker brought up these stylistic differences from these two offenses. San Diego State number 114 and havoc allowed. Middle Tennessee’s defense is number 20 there. San Diego state’s defense number 33 in passing explosiveness allowed and Middle Tennessee’s offense is number 79. That’s one of the things that you saw early in the season, especially against Miami when they were just throwing the ball deep and letting guys go get it, chase Cunningham with those deep passes. There’s a lot of things that seem to favor San Diego State here, but I kind of like Middle Tennessee in this. I’m curious your thoughts, Kyle.
Speaker 3:
Yeah, so I wanted to bet the over, but the numbers higher than what I expected it to be. My number was 49, so it’s right on it. Jalen Mayden made a really big difference for the San Diego State team. Quietly, you remember coming into the season when it was supposed to be like Braxton Burmeister is going to take over and it’s going to be amazing and it did not go well, that’s for sure. The year to date stats is misleading-
Speaker 1:
I think to our credit, I think our phrase was if Braxton Burmeister is the answer, we are asking the wrong question.
Speaker 3:
Yeah, we were right about that one, that’s for sure. But Mayden is not a great passer, he’s a really good runner. He takes some shots downfield, if you look at his PFF grade it’s 82.2, which is really solid. That’s excellent for what San Diego State’s been having in the past. I think San Diego State can move the ball on Middle Tennessee State a decent amount here. The problem is if you want to take an over the pace is pretty slow for San Diego State, Middle Tennessee probably not going to get at those explosive plays that they usually get. I do think it’s fair to say though, San Diego state’s defense is not what they used to be, they used to be tremendous defensively. And if you look at QBR allowed, they’re 60 seconds so far this year. Their past defense is okay. They don’t give up big plays, but they do give up more successful plays than what they have in the past.
I think the defense gradually is getting worse as Rocky Long is not there. He was such a good defensive mind. Being a head coach, the guys that were his defensive coordinators were tremendous. They’ve slipped a bit since then, certainly. I think Middle Tennessee can move the ball through the air some here. So on offense, I think San Diego State can be fairly successful and I want to take the over, like I said, but you kind of look at San Diego State’s games and you say, okay, there better be big plays because they play so slowly. They’re bottom 15 or 20 in tempo in the country. If there’s not explosive plays, then you’re going to be in trouble. The thing about MTSU that kind of strikes me is that they have five losses this year, all of them by 15 points or more. So I could see the game going a lot of different ways.
I think if you like MTSU, probably put something on the money line because they could win the game outright. Lean to the over for me, nothing too strong on the side. So I’ll leave Gary to pick the side here.
Speaker 1:
I am going to roll with Middle Tennessee. They throw the ball 58% of the time since week eight. And that San Diego state defense as you mentioned, Kyle, the QBR number 62, PPA per pass. They’re number 58 since week eight, and that includes a game against Air Force. It’s pretty nuts to think about this San Diego State team that yes, the overall defensive numbers have been really good, but they don’t defend the pass well. I will say that. So from what I’ve seen of this team, I think that Middle Tennessee can create some plays against them. And hey, I’ve got three models that I use. Two of them have Middle Tennessee favored by about a point, and one of them has San Diego State favored by three. That’s less than seven. So I’m going to take a shot here. I like Middle Tennessee plus the seven on this one.
Now, Brady Hoke did say that this is the bowl that they wanted. They wanted to go to Hawaii. I don’t know if that’s because they wanted the players to go or if it’s… I don’t think it has anything to do with the opponent. I wonder exactly what he was talking about by saying that-
Speaker 2:
Hoke wanted to go to Hawaii, man, he needed the excuse.
Speaker 1:
But they’re already in Hawaii preparing. Middle Tennessee has not made it there yet, but San Diego State got there a week ago, so they are enjoying island life. I’m going to take that to mean that they are just enjoying their bowl trip and maybe the game doesn’t necessarily mean that much. I’m going to ride with Middle Tennessee plus the seven on this one because I think they’ve got a shot to win the game. And they just did it last year in The Bahamas, which by the way, middle Tennessee goes to The Bahamas last year and then Hawaii this year. There are perks to go in six and six my friends, this is not bad. So yeah, give me Middle Tennessee plus seven on that one. All right, we’ve made it through three. Let me go ahead and remind everybody, one, about the podcast, the BetUS Football Show, subscribe anywhere you can subscribe to podcasts.
Second, jump in the chat for the Q and A. I see a lot of people and Julius, LFG, we got multiple people in here. I think Mike was in there earlier, DDB, et cetera. Mark Holmes is in there as well. And so you guys, any questions that you’ve got regarding Bowl season, regarding coaching changes, regarding anything about college football, toss it in there. We’ll hit it at the end of the show. Like the video. I see several more people watching than have liked, the numbers don’t add up. Go ahead and hit that thumbs up button for us. Subscribe to the channel, hit the notification bell. It’s going to let you know when we go live. And that is every Tuesday and Wednesday at 1:00 PM Eastern Time. So also, don’t forget about tomorrow’s show. There you go. All right, moving along.
We’re moving to the day after Christmas. And Monday, December 26th we’ve got the Quick Lane Bowl with New Mexico State and Bowling Green. It’s at 2:30 PM Eastern Time on ESPN. Bowling Green, a three and a half point favorite. The total sits at 47 and a half. This one’s at Ford Field in Detroit, and I can’t think of anywhere that I would rather be for the holidays than Detroit, Michigan. New Mexico State is six and two straight up and against the spread in their last eight games. Jerry Kill has completely turned this program around. They only have one bowl appearance in their history. They won it as an underdog back in 2017. Bowling Green’s last bowl game was in 2015. So if you had asked just a random person, which one of these teams has not been to a bowl game in the longest amount of time?
I don’t know what answer you would get, but I kind of was surprised that New Mexico State has been to one more recently than Bowling Green. Kyle, the only opt-out in this game from what I can see is the New Mexico State punter, Josh Carlson, who is transferring to Arizona State now. He averaged over 40 [inaudible 00:28:32] per punt. Diego Pavia, the quarterback for New Mexico State was banged up against Valparaiso. But Jerry Kills said that he’s going to be good. There’s all kinds of different motivation factors on both sides here, et cetera. But I will tell you the team that is trending in the best direction here is New Mexico State. I’m curious what you think, Kyle.
Speaker 3:
I think this is an awful game. This is a terrible game. Anybody has to try to hype up this games.
Speaker 1:
What are you doing?
Speaker 3:
Imagine being a hype guy for this game, just how terrible a job would that be. Well, Gary, you said it in your intro, where would you rather be than Detroit, Michigan, for Christmas? Yeah, I’d like to see an over under. I wonder if BetUS can make this happen. I’d love to see an over under of what the attendance will be at this game. I’d love to bet the under and that would be my best bet of the day. So there’s two ways to look at this guys, New Mexico State had a nice win over Liberty. Was Liberty there for that game? They were only somewhat there for that game. Certainly, they beat a bunch of terrible teams to New Mexico State. I think Jerry Kill did a really good job. It’s just it’s hard to find good wins from New Mexico State outside of the Liberty one.
And they beat a couple FCS teams. UMass is basically an FCS team. Do I really want to back New Mexico State playing this far away from home? No, I really don’t. On the other side, I don’t trust Bowling Green’s coaching staff at all. I don’t think Bowling Green’s good. The mark is still 42.7% ATS in bowl games since 2005. The Falcons are negative 0.79 yard per play margin and they played a week schedule. So they’re being bet on, they’re free money. Look at the line move in this one. I wasn’t Bowling Green a dog to start. I believe they were an underdog to start this, which that was a little confusing being that close to home. But now you get to three and a half the other way, there’s no way I can lay that many points with Bowling Green. I don’t think Bowling Green’s a good team. So if I had to bet this game, I would probably bet the under.
I don’t have to bet this game and I don’t want to bet this game. And this would be the game that I don’t want to watch the most of any of the games we talked about here.
Speaker 1:
I could certainly understand that. Of course, the day after Christmas, there will be other things going on than football but that I will have this one on. I’ve got my player ready to go, but Parker, I want to get you in here. Since week eight, New Mexico State’s number five and PPA margin, Bowling Green, number 38. Now, some of that has to do obviously with the strength of schedule that they have faced. But New Mexico State, more explosive, more efficient, number three in points per scoring opportunity here. Try and talk me out of New Mexico state here.
Speaker 2:
I will absolutely do that. Massie has them as the literal worst schedule in college football and it’s very hard to argue. Yes, they went, what is this? Five and one down the stretch. Those wins were a UNM team that ended up two and 10. A UMass team that is utterly feckless, FCS. Lamar, a Liberty team in the midst of a three game skid where Hugh Freeze had already checked out and was recruiting for his new job at Auburn. As they were losing I think against [inaudible 00:31:41], another just abysmal FCS team who was free because they didn’t make the playoffs and were able and around. So I get this one on the merits. My numbers have this as 19 within a point in favor of Bowling Green, but still within a point. So it would make sense that New Mexico State… With the schedule I just don’t know that I can do it.
I don’t know that I can trust them with the disparity of schedule. It’s not like Bowling Green played a world beating schedule, but Bowling Green has beaten real live competitive football teams as opposed to the slate that New Mexico State had. And again, New Mexico State has not been playing a good schedule forever. That’s not to say, Hey Jerry Kill actually didn’t do a good job by winning six games. It’s very impressive. But we have to account for that as we’re trying to be predictive going forward. 99th on offense, 61st on defense unadjusted, that’s going to come way down. The New Mexico state is 90, 30 EPA per pass a 100th and EPA per rush. The one thing they do well is they defend the pass okay, they’re 49th in EPA per pass but they’re 98th in EPA per rush.
What do we know about big splits? I have reason to suspect that pass defense might not be as good as it looks in the numbers here. Bowling Green definitely has a… So one, you have New Mexico State traveling. Two, you have Bowling Green, one of the most experienced teams in college football. I think they were leading the nation in returning production this year, which only means what it means. But especially in a situation like this where you have time to prepare. I don’t know that I trust New Mexico State enough to do what the numbers think they do in this spot. So I’m very wary of this game. And to the contrary, Kyle, I think that because this game is so bad, it’s going to be amazing. It’s going to turn out to be one of the funnier games of Bowl season as so often happened. So definitely we’ll be watching, but not sure I trust either team on a side here and that total is just right in line with my numbers too. I just don’t know. I don’t have a value play on this one.
Speaker 1:
I can understand. I am going to ride with New Mexico State. I’m going to take the Aggies and here’s why. First off, New Mexico State is number 91 in giveaways per game, Bowling Green, number 1O7. So I think we can expect chaos in this game. But when we look at just the coaching matchup itself, Scott Loeffler against Jerry Kill, like I’m going to trust Jerry Kill. Jerry Kill has not won a bowl game. He is 0 in six straight up. He’s one in five against the spread. I think the motivation is there. These guys petitioned to go to this bowl game. They wanted to go to a bowl game. Bowling Green, obviously a lot of experience, et cetera. The defense has been pretty good this year. Both of these teams, their defenses are playing better than the offenses right now. But I trust New Mexico State here. I know the schedule has not been great, but they are doing against it what they are supposed to do against it, which is beat up on bad teams.
They had to play that game against Valparaiso very last minute. Yes, and Valpo had not played since November 19th when they played on December 4th or whatever it was. They beat them, what? 61 to three. They came out and did exactly what they were supposed to do. I trust this team right now. Give me New Mexico State plus the three and a half. I think this at least should be closer to around a pick them. The fact that we’ve got three and a half on one side. Yeah, give me the Aggies. Aggies plus three and a half on that. Moving along, we’re headed to Tuesday, December 27th. And this one’s at 12:00 PM Eastern time on ESPN, the Camellia Bowl. Georgia Southern, a three and a half point favorite with a total of 67 over against Buffalo. Now, and this one of course are latest numbers at BetUS. It’s at the Crampton Bowl in Montgomery, Alabama. Now, Parker, Buffalo down the stretch it’s been very… I’m not going to say fraudulent, this team’s just not been very good.
So and you look at what they’ve done, a win four against the spread in the last four games, they did win their final one against Akron. It was a comeback win to win by one when they were favored by nearly two touchdowns. Georgia Southern has got issues where they can’t really stop the run, et cetera. There’s things pulling me in both directions here. Parker, what do you see between these two? Have we got you?
Speaker 2:
Sorry, I believe I froze there for a second. I think I’m back, I think I’m alive now. Yeah, but I hate calling teams fraudulent, but that’s kind of what it is. You just look at Buffalo’s schedule and who they’ve played and how they’ve played against them. It’s just not been great overall this season. And again, I think that the program’s doing a fine job. They’re getting some talent and maybe they’ll be able to get into a direction like they’ve been in the past recently. But I just don’t have a lot of faith in this team. 68 in EPA per play on offense, 38, that again you adjust that way down for strength of schedule here. And particularly the offense that makes me so nervous is they’re very balanced, but they’re very bad at passing.
So they’re 75th in rush rate over expected. They’re 0.7%. They’re exactly almost average in terms of run pass splits based on down in situation. That does suggest to me that they’re not exactly confident in their offensive identity. You think about their other teams of Jaret Patterson, for instance, where they would just run the Jesus out of the ball and do whatever they wanted to you. Now they’re kind of more av, we’ve got to take what we can get here. A little less consistent on offense, 81st in EPA per pass, 56 in EPA per rush. Now, it’s not like Georgia Southern’s playing great defense this season. Georgia Southern is 120 second in EPA per play. They’re average. They’re allowing 32.3 points per game. So not exactly great there. I think if you’re on this game, you’re betting that Buffalo’s defense is not as bad against George Southern’s offense as George Southern’s defense is against Buffalo’s offense.
I think that’s a hard proposition to sell though, because Georgia Southern’s 29th and unadjusted EPA per play, 0.100, per play on offense that’s 39th and passing 27th in rushing. And one thing that stand out, Georgia Southern’s been 128th in starting field position averaging about 25.5 yards, that’s touchback. But Buffalo has been terrible at starting field position 32.3, that’s 116th worst in starting field position out loud. So Georgia Southern has very good offensive efficiency and very bad field position. If Buffalo gives them anything in the field position department, I think they’re going to score at will here. So I’m not entirely sure who to trust here, but I don’t know that I trust Buffalo’s offense against a bad defense even to really just kind of do the basics of football well and keep this thing close.
Speaker 1:
I can understand that, Kyle, we’ll move it over to you. Kyle, Vantrease, the Georgia Southern quarterback of course facing his former team. It might be a little motivation there. All the numbers that Parker was just talking about, Georgia Southern, they’re offense number 15 in success rate. Buffalo’s defense is number 79 since week eight, number 18 in rushing success. But Georgia Southern only runs the ball 39% of the time. So we’ll see about these splits once this game is done. With Buffalo there are some guys that are opting out, guys that are injured, et cetera. The running backs Cook and Henderson, neither played against Akron and they’ve combined for 900 plus yards this season. Between the two of them, the wide receiver Gasset, the tight end Borland, the center highs and the safety Cobb have all entered the portal. They haven’t said whether or not they’re playing in the game.
We’ll see what ends up happening once we get there. But if the buffalo running backs are out, that’s a huge issue because Georgia Southern as Parker was talking about, number 1 22 in PPA per rush since week eight. Both of these defenses are bad. The Georgia Southern offense is a little bit better. How do you see this one playing out?
Speaker 3:
A couple things from the chat real quick too. Mike said, Todd Holton’s done a good job. I’m sitting there thinking the Colorado Rockies there for a second. But yeah, Holton has done a good job with this team in general. And DDB said Georgia Southern got Scott Frost fired and I think Scott Frost got Scott Frost fired. Yes, they were just the final one that did it. But 78% of the bets are on Georgia Southern in this one, and the public does poorly in the postseason. So that definitely makes you pause a bit. But having said that, it’s not something I can blindly bet and there’s no way I could bet on Buffalo in this game if you look at it, because take a look at the Buffalo resume for a minute. Buffalo failed three weeks in a row and their quest to become bowl eligible. Then they beat Akron by one point right at the end of the game. An Akron team that was not good obviously, but Akron arguably should have beaten them in that game.
Buffalo was negative 1.12 yards per play marching for the season. That’s 120th out of 131 teams in the country, despite playing the 103rd toughest schedule in the country. So they’ve played bad teams, they’ve been out gained consistently. They’re fortunate to be in a bowl game for sure. Making a case for them would be extremely hard for me. Georgia Southern has quite a few injuries. They’ve been banged up here down the stretch. They’ve been the better team during the year by quite a bit. I think their passing attack is too much for Buffalo here. Buffalo is 129th in explosiveness allowed on defense yikes. I think that’s a big problem. My pizza money bet here is the Georgia Southern team total over. I did just bet that one here on BetUS. So the one thing that makes me hesitate a bit from making this a bigger bet, Vantrease has turnover issues. He turned it over in the red zone a lot this year.
So I could see them moving the ball a lot, not quite scoring enough points. I still do think Georgia Southern can score a lot of points here and I would certainly lean Georgia Southern minus the points and I’ll take a small pizza money bet on the team total over.
Speaker 1:
I could definitely understand that. So no official plays on this one just because of the variance of the turnovers, et cetera, but definitely leans towards Georgia Southern on this. Buffalo hasn’t given us a whole lot to write home about it. We’ll just say that. Moving along, we are staying on Tuesday, December 27th. And we are headed to the first responder bowl, Memphis against Utah State. The Tigers are a seven and a half point favorite juice at minus 1O5. The total sits at 61 and a half. Of course, latest numbers at BetUS. This at Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas, Texas, 3:15 PM Eastern time on ESPN of course. Memphis four and three straight-up all time against Utah State, but the last meeting was in 1977. So it’s been a little while. I don’t know that those trends would necessarily hold up here. Memphis two and one straight up, one and two against the spread in their last three ball games.
They’re one in five straight up and against the spread in their last six bowl games. Something to pay attention to. Utah State two and three against the spread and straight up in the last five bowls. Not a whole lot of trends to really look at with this. Ryan Silverfield finally got the bowl off of his back with a win over FAU just a couple of years ago. Remember, Memphis did not get to play in the Hawaii Bowl last year as it was canceled the day before the game. So definitely, I guess they’re looking forward to getting back to a bowl game, even if it is in Dallas as opposed to Hawaii. Kyle, I want to start with you here. The running back Calvin Tyler opted out for the NFL draft, so he’s going to sit out here. But these two coaches do have familiarity with each other.
Silverfield and his first season coached against Blake Anderson, the head coach at Utah State. It was a 37 to 24 win over Arkansas State for Memphis at that point. But I look at some of these numbers and yes, there’s ways that maybe you could point me towards Utah State. But the majority of everything else points towards Memphis here. That Utah State is number 104 in turnover margin, number 128 penalties per game, number 128 offensive red zone conversion percentage. They’re number 125 defensive red zone conversion percentage. This number’s at seven and a half it’s come down from nine and a half, but I’m not really seeing it. What is it about this Utah State team that maybe would talk you into this, Kyle?
Speaker 3:
I’m not going to bet Utah State, so it’s hard for me to give a strong argument for Utah State. But last year was Memphis, had they already traveled when that game was canceled?
Speaker 1:
Yes.
Speaker 3:
Yeah, I thought so. So that couldn’t have been too fun for them and I think that would make them pretty hyped up about being in a bowl game this year. Is that that was kind of taken away from them at the last moment. Two teams who like to play fast a total that’s pretty justifiably high in my opinion, Cooper Legas should start here for Utah State. Tyler opted out the running back who was pretty good. So I think Legas has probably needed running a decent amount here because they’ve got to have some kind of balance. Barring last minute notices, I think Memphis is pretty close to full strength at least compared to a lot of teams in bowl season. Memphis’ minus 14 and SEC margin this year. But I don’t think Utah State’s really the type of team that is very good at pressuring quarterbacks that make them pay for that.
They’ve been especially weak against the run, 75% of the bet’s here on Memphis in 95% of the money. So a lot of people and a lot of money on Memphis and this one. That would be the side I would bet if I had to bet this game. I would’ve wanted to take the over, but I hate Tyler not being there. I think Legas has a lot of pressure on him to come through in this game. I do like Blake Anderson. So if I was going to say something positive about Utah State is that I think Blake Anderson is good at pre prepping his team in general. Memphis is the much better team, the deeper team. I think balance team. Memphis probably busts some big plays in this game. And my lean is Memphis. It’s just that you got that hook and the public’s all over them. So I’m a little bit shying away.
Speaker 1:
I could understand that. Parker, we’ll move over to you. Memphis throws the ball 55% of the time since week eight and it’s what they do best on offense, but it’s also what Utah State defends the best. You’re looking at number 16, passing success rate in offense for Memphis against number 20 for Utah State on defense. There’s obviously… I read you all the stats here, all the intangibles and whatnot go towards Memphis. And yet this thing has gone from Memphis favored by nine and a half down to seven and a half even with all the money that Kyle was talking about coming in on Memphis. I’m curious your stance on this one.
Speaker 2:
You know what I’m going to say about the passing defense, don’t you? Utah State 39th in EPA per pass, but 115th in EPA per rush allowed. This is a defense rather that is just helpless against the run. And so why pass against them if you don’t have to? You look at their schedule the last couple of weeks, they’ve played two real teams, Boise and Wyoming. They have looked awful against them. They have played three fake teams in San Jose State, Hawaii and New Mexico, and they have looked just okay winning two of those by one score. So I’m not excited about Utah State as a cohesive unit as a team. This past defense I think that I give the advantage to Hennigan and the Tigers for a couple of reasons. One, a lot of the Tiger’s wounds this season have been self-inflicted.
I think Hennigan was top five in yards lost to drafts this season. And so certainly you can’t fix that overnight, but there is suggestions that, hey, maybe they can bring down the ADot, do a little bit better there to be more efficient in the past game, especially as the run game’s going to be limited. But the run game hasn’t been great this season anyway, 77th in EPA per rush. So I think this Memphis passing offense is really going to challenge the defense. On the flip side, Utah State, not really good at anything on offense. But they’re rushing 6.8% more than the average team that’s 111th. Memphis’ defense is 22nd in EPA per rush. So I think that the defense is going to be really annoying here for Utah State. I like the upside of the Tigers offense, I think that Memphis has a big advantage in field position on both sides of the ball this season.
And so like you said, Gary, the intangibles, even the special teams and the breaks all seem to go Memphis this way. I think the Tigers with a comfortable win, a good benefit both these teams is that most of the cold, nasty weather is going to be out of the DFW area before they play. Should be a nice, sunny, relatively nice weather game. I think in a vacuum I’m going to take the Tigers. And I think this situation is going to be as close to a vacuum as we can get. So I’ll ride with the Tigers to cover as a favorite here.
Speaker 1:
I like it. Let’s make it official. Parker going to ride with Memphis minus seven and a half on this one. And I can’t disagree. I can’t really disagree. When you look at the overall numbers on the season from everything from PPA per drive all the way down to penalties, it all tends to favor Memphis. So curious what we will get in that game, but I could certainly see why you would roll that direction. All right, let me remind everybody again, like the video for us. We’re getting close to one goal, but go ahead and hit that thumbs up button for us if you would, so kindly. And of course, make sure that you are subscribed to the channel. We have got three more bowl previews to do. We’ve got today and then we’ve got Wednesday and then we’ve got two more next week.
We’ve got a national championship coming after that. We’ve got to recap all of ourselves. We’re going to be here for a while, so make sure that you are subscribed to the channel. Hit the notification bell every Tuesday and Wednesday, 1:00 PM Eastern Time we are right here. Jump in the chat Q and A. I know some people have been asking questions, we certainly appreciate that. If you have anything you want to talk about, we will hit that at the end of the show. We’ve got two more games that we need to discuss. So let’s go ahead and jump into the next one. Tuesday, December 27th, 6:45 PM Eastern Time on ESPN, the Birmingham Bowl, East Carolina against Coastal Carolina. And ECU is an eight point favorite, the total sits at 62 and a half, latest numbers at BetUS. This is at Protective Stadium in Birmingham, Alabama.
Now interesting spot here because Coastal Carolina’s quarterback, Grayson McCall, announced that he’s going to transfer or that he’s at least entering the portal but then also came out and said, “Oh, but I’m still going to play in the bowl game.” Now, this of course is after Jamey Chadwell, the head coach for Coastal has already taken the head coaching job at Liberty. Chad Stags will be the interim coach here, he is the defensive coordinator. Parker, I want to start with you on this one. Coastal Carolina was two and six against the spread in their last eight games. They are one and one straight up, but 0 in two against the spread in their bowl games. They did get a bowl win last year. East Carolina’s last bowl was in 2014. Now Mike Houston being the awesome coach that he is, he’s five, two and one against the spread in post-season games. But all of those back when he was at James Madison, and something to pay attention here. Holton Ahlers is awesome. Grayson McCall is awesome. I love the quarterback matchup here. Show me what your numbers got.
Speaker 2:
I am absolutely going to fade Coastal Carolina here. One, the head coaching change to McCall and the transfer of portal and as of yet undecided as to where he’s going to go. This is potentially an audition but also potentially an opportunity to not get hurt. I think that’s going to be very important. And I’m not as worried about that side of the ball for Coastal Carolina as I am their defense, their defense has just gotten worse year over year as they’ve kind of lost that one initial class that was really good in 2020 and really struggled here. So I see these as kind of near image teams, both in the 20s of offensive efficiencies, both in the 100s of defensive efficiency. But this Coastal Carolina defense 119th in EPA per pass, 80th in EPA per rush, 108th in quality possession rate.
They’re 97th on third and fourth down success. They’re really just not doing things well overall. I think on the offensive side of the ball also, they’ve been way less explosive than they have historically. They’re 72nd on early downs EPA, but they’re 11th in third and fourth down success rate. They’re third in EPA per pass, 87th in EPA per rush. That tells me that they are getting bailed out on third downs, which is unsustainable overall. I think with some preparation, East Carolina can make sure they kind of attack those situations appropriately and really shut down this Coastal Carolina run game, which they love to run 5.4 rush rate over expected. I like East Carolina here. I think they’re hard to play against. I think Ahlers is an absolute just baller at quarterback, very much a gamer kind of a guy.
A lot to play for Eastern Carolina, especially with the in-state reality and maybe staking out some claim of who’s going to kind of run this area of the country not in-state, the greater Carolina area. And I think that the Pirates are the bet here. It’s come down a little bit and so I’m comfortable with East Carolina and minus eight.
Speaker 1:
How interesting by the way that both sinners have opted to transfer. I know Lampkin is going to North Carolina, he’s already announced, so I don’t believe he’s playing in this game. But the center Jones for East Carolina is in the transfer portal. Now, he has not said whether or not he’s going to play the safety for East Carolina as well. [inaudible 00:52:56] I believe is how you say it, he’s also in the portal. The tight end Ryan Jones is opting out for this one as well. For Coastal there are other guys, the defensive end, Josaiah Stewart, he is headed to Michigan. The cornerback, Stokes and Reeves have all entered the portal as well. It’s going to be interesting who’s actually going to play once we get to the ballgame next Tuesday. Kyle, let’s move it over to you. I’m looking at all these different numbers. Number 57 net points per drive for ACU to number 72 for coastal. ACU number 70 in points per play margin, Coastal number 82.
And then of course turnover margin, Coastal Carolina is number 51, ECU is number nine. Like ECU is more talented and they’re not dealing with the remnants of a prior coaching staff. It’s a big situation here. I’m curious what you were thinking about this one, Kyle.
Speaker 3:
Why are line movements in this game for sure with Grayson McCall thinking he was going to be out and then Grayson McCall’s back in. He’s in the portal, but playing is certainly interesting. And I was thinking about this, is there a quarterback in the country that’s worth more to the point spread than Grayson McCall? Because the drop-off from McCall to the second stringer is massive here. I think there’s still a chance that McCall doesn’t play the whole game, which would make me definitely second guess myself. I was looking at Coastal Carolina, Chadeell’s out. I think it’s tough to gauge motivation here for Coastal where we know that East Carolina’s got to be motivated for this and I think Houston’s a really good coach. I like the job he’s done here. Holton Ahlers and companies should move the ball with ease against a coastal defense, that’s 120 sixth out of 131 teams in the country.
East Carolina’s 26th in explosiveness in offense. So Coastal 114th in explosiveness allowed. I think big play’s coming here for East Carolina in the passing game for sure. And all these numbers, and then you have East Carolina playing a much tougher schedule. 71st in [inaudible 00:54:57] and Coastal 101. I think Coastal can keep at least enough scoreboard pressure to make East Carolina keep scoring here. I’m going to take East Carolina team total over here. I got to be honest, last night when BetUS was putting up the team total lines, I was really hoping this one was going to be 35 and not 35 and a half. When I saw 35 and a half I was, ah man. But I’m going to take over 35 and a half. If you look at who Coastal has given up a lot of points to this year, they gave up 49 to Old Dominion. Old Dominion not exactly the best offense in the world.
They gave up 47 to James Madison who I know is good. But then they gave up 45 points to Troy. There are some things good about Troy, but not their offense to get 45 points. I take East Carolina team total over 35 and a half here thinking this game has a high total for a reason. And I think East Carolina as long as they stay motivated can score a lot of points in this one.
Speaker 1:
I’m with you there. The Holton Ahler’s train certainly rolls on their number 39 PPA per pass on offense since week eight. And Coastal Carolina’s defense number 120. So a massive advantage for ECU. Let’s go ahead and make it official. Parker is going to ride ECU to cover the eight here and Kyle is going to roll with the team total for East Carolina over 35 and a half. I’m going to sit back and watch this one. I’m going to sit back and watch because that line movement has been bonkers as Kyle mentioned. It’s all over the place. It opened at seven, it jumped all the way up to 13 and a half or 14 and now it’s back down to eight. I’m going to watch. I’m just going to see what happens. All right, we got one more game two hit.
Let’s move on over to the Guaranteed Rate Bowl, Wisconsin, a three and a half point favorite over Oklahoma State. Now the total sits at 43 on this. It’s at Chase Field in Phoenix, Arizona, 10:15 PM Eastern Time on ESPN on Tuesday, December 27th. Guys, this is a weird one here. We’re talking about two teams that I don’t believe they’re going to have their quarterbacks. Spencer Sanders he’s entered the transfer portal. Graham Mertz has entered the transfer portal. You’ve got a lot of dudes that are either opt-outs or in the portal. The defensive ends at Martin and Lacey for Oklahoma State have opted out. The linebacker Cobb, the running back Richardson, the defensive end for, the safety Harper and the wide receiver Presley who didn’t have a ton of playing time this year. They’re all in the portal for Oklahoma State.
On the other side, Wisconsin, I mentioned Mertz, but you got the center and you got the defensive lineman Benton, and the cornerback Shaw that are in the portal. The linebacker Herbi is out because he’s doing draft prep. This is Leonard’s last game as the interim coach here. Kyle, I’m going to start with you. I would imagine that the defense is going to play pretty hard for him. I don’t know what to expect. These are two teams that normally trend pretty well in bowl games, but they did not end the season very well at all. What are your thoughts on this one?
Speaker 3:
If I was being forced to place bets on every single bowl game but then got to pass on two or three, this would definitely be one of them I’d pass on. It’s really hard to make a bet in this game. It’s one that I’m interested to watch because I want to see what happens. But I think it’s a tough bet to make because if you started through the list of injured players and the opt-outs, you’d probably have a longer list than the guys who actually are available to play in this game. That makes it really hard. So many moving parts and the unknown is difficult when it comes to betting. Probably Wolf or Burkett at quarterback for Wisconsin. The QB play has been bad to start with for Wisconsin, but I don’t think those guys will be very good either at least in this game.
I think most people were pretty surprised with Spencer Sanders, [inaudible 00:58:42] at least I was. That’s a big loss. He had really improved a lot in this system. Richardson, the running back being out is a big loss as well. I think here in this one, the under is what you’d want to take. The under has moved from what? 50 down to 43 or something like that. So if you got a good number to start with, then you’re sitting in a good spot. But I think it’s kind of hard to take under 43. Oklahoma State’s defense is not what they were a year or two ago. Wisconsin’s defense is okay. How does the dynamic look when you’re Jim Leonard’s in his last game? I know a lot of the players were not thrilled that Leonard wasn’t kept.
So you could argue, okay, one last game for Leonard, here we go. Or they’re just kind of depressed about the fact that he’s not going to be there. I think this is a incredibly difficult game to bet. So I hope one of you or somebody from the chat has some kind of angle on this one because this is a tough one.
Speaker 1:
I’ll go ahead and tell you. I got no angle here. I got nothing. Wisconsin is number 39 PPA margin since week eight. Oklahoma State is number I20. The Oklahoma State numbers down the stretch were just awful. Parker, Oklahoma State number 119 PPA per drive on offense. Wisconsin’s defense was number 13 in that metric since week eight. But then the Wisconsin offense has been awful, number 93 PPA drive. The Oklahoma State defense is number 72. So not nearly as good as Wisconsin’s was. Oklahoma State’s offense had less than five yards per play in every game of the last five down the stretch. It’s not been… Excuse me, in four of the last five, I think they got barely over five in one of those games. But regardless, there’s not a lot of numbers that can point towards Oklahoma State, at least the way that they’re trending here. But do you trust Wisconsin right now? I’m not sure which way to go on this. But Parker, it seems like something just completely fell apart for the cowboys at some point in the middle of the year and they have not been able to get it back.
Speaker 2:
There are worst bowl bets you could make than Braylin Allen versus the Oklahoma State defense right now. I think there’s worse bets. Oklahoma State… Let me just again read, Oklahoma State’s defense verse TCU 224 Russian yards, verse Texas 204, versus Kansas State 199, versus Kansas 351. Iowa State, 59. But Iowa State’s a poverty team right now. Oklahoma 175 and West Virginia 250 rushing yards. Even at whatever level of strength that is more than the opt-outs that are currently happening. Oklahoma state’s offense could not do much at all. Our defense could not do much at all against the run game. So I don’t like this game, this stinks. I don’t know who’s going to play. That being said, Braylin Allen’s a good running back. And Wisconsin’s averaging 60 EPA per rush. Oklahoma State has been inclined to a couple of games this season.
They’ve just said, hey, we’re just not going to play Kansas State and even the West Virginia game. Just, hey, we’re just not competing in this game. Maybe if you’re looking for an edge and you absolutely have to for a bowl pick them or something, maybe you’re going with Wisconsin here. But man, I just don’t know that there’s a reliable edge with how many players are… What? 23 of 44 starters I think. And that doesn’t count for some role guy, role players, both quarterbacks, Braylin Allen’s going to be the best player on the field, I think for either team. So maybe that’s your edge, but man, this stinks to high heaven.
Speaker 1:
Yeah, I don’t know that there’s any way that you could really point towards either one of these teams. If one of these teams was really good in bowl games and the other was bad, maybe it’s a reason why you might take it. But Gundy is six no against the spread in his last six bowl games at Oklahoma State. Wisconsin, seven and one at five two and one against the spread in their last eight bowl games. So both of these teams really tend to get up for these games and we don’t know who the quarterbacks are going to be. We don’t know who’s actually going to play in the game. No official play from any of us. We try and win around here and I don’t think you can win long term betting on stuff like this. So if anybody in the chat or in the comments, et cetera, later has an edge on this one, certainly toss it in there because man, this one’s out there.
This one might be kooky. It’s a late night game in Phoenix, Arizona. This could be our [inaudible 01:03:14] of after 12 game for at least that night. I’m excited to see what it’s going to be like. But man, that’s a weird spot. All right, no official plays on that one. We are done with the game segment. We are ready to jump into the Q and A. Let me go on and remind everybody like the video for us if you would. So kindly subscribe to the channel, subscribe to the podcast as well, share the show out, tell your friends about it. That would certainly help us out big time by adding some new members to our little family here. I see Big Luji, I see Mike, I see DDB, Mark, Julius, et cetera. You guys are awesome. So let’s jump into some of these questions here.
Mike M jumped in, he said, what do you guys think about these match ups so far? What’s your favorite bowl played as of this point? I’ll start us off here and then we will roll Parker and then Kyle on it. I loved the Cure Bowl, I lost the bet, but the tension in that game was off the charts. I felt like it was written devil’s last Friday. Of course, I thought it was fantastic. A really well played game. Obviously there were mistakes made by UTSA of course, but those are two really high quality teams and some really good coaching going on in that game. Although, there were some questionable decisions once of course UTSA got into scoring position, why would you not run the ball? But regardless, that was my favorite thus far. I really enjoyed that. Parker, what about you?
Speaker 2:
Certainly hard to beat that one. I think there were three that stood out just because they were very competitive. That were fun with the Miami, Ohio, UAB where UAB goes for it on fourth and two and they win and that’s a lot of fun. And then the SMU, BYU where SMU drove and then went for two and didn’t get it at the end, were really competitive. So for every Fresno, Washington state or Oregon state, Florida, there’s been even a Rice, USM was competitive at one point. And like UNT and Boise State was very fun. I don’t even know, there’s been a lot of good ones overall. I think that that Miami, just because it was the first one. And it’s Miami, Ohio and UAB and just a lot to play for there. So that one was probably my favorite so far.
Speaker 1:
Yeah, it certainly set the tone. Kyle, what about you? What’s been your favorite bowl thus far?
Speaker 3:
I’m going to go with one that hasn’t been said yet, the Boise State and North Texas game. I thought that was kind of fun because we had some animosity in that game. The post-game handshake was even a little bit weird and North Texas played pretty well in that game, but Boise comes out with a win. A nice back and forth game. And the other one I probably would’ve said was the BYU, SMU game because SMU goes for two. I’m not sure that’s the play I would’ve called if I went for two there. But certainly a couple of interesting games and I think we could get some pretty good ones here coming up the next few days.
Speaker 1:
I think you’re right, we’re going to have some really good ones. Of course, that Miami and UAB game set the tone for bowl season. I think we’re going to get a whole lot of really fun ones here. Paxton, said Q and A, where does Hudson card go? Hey Parker got any insight on this because I have no idea. I think you’d be great at Oklahoma State, but also think you’d-
Speaker 2:
To describe to the Purple Theory podcast. I don’t know, I don’t know anything about Hudson Card right now that I can… Yeah, I don’t know anything. I’ve heard his name connected to a lot of places.
Speaker 1:
I have done the same. Mark Holmes jumps in, he said, you guys have day jobs? If so, curious what you do if you feel like sharing. Kyle, would you like to start us off there?
Speaker 3:
Sure. My day job is handicapping and sports writing and doing videos and stuff like this. So I handicap every major sport there is. I got to tell you, college basketball takes the most time by a lot. So college basketball can be super overwhelming this time of the year. But yeah, I do this and in the past I was in finance and investments. So you still can catch me checking in on the stock market quite a bit as well.
Speaker 1:
Oh, most certainly. I think it all kind of plays together, return on investment, it all goes well. I am an IT tech along with I do this. This is a day job. I don’t necessarily handicap for a living, but I host shows. And I’ve done this for quite some time. So yeah, this is the day job along with being an IT tech. Parker, anything you’d like to share?
Speaker 2:
Yeah, I’m a data scientist for consumer sports. We work with NFL teams right now and are expanding some stuff that all of you I think will thank is very cool once we roll it out in advance of the 2023 season. And I’m finishing a PhD in economics, but I’m just kind of doing that on my own time. So I have day jobs, I just do a lot of things. A lot of it overlaps. So yeah.
Speaker 1:
I love how you just toss out that PhD thing like yeah, PhD, no big deal. Let’s see, Julius Jackson, Parker, who do you like the Bison or the Jackrabbits?
Speaker 2:
I don’t know why you would bet against the Bison. I do think that what you’d be… I don’t know what the line is currently. I don’t know if BetUS has a line on that. But I would be inclined to bet North Dakota State because if you watched last week, Montana State quarterback got hurt early and South Dakota State was able to just kind of play bully ball against Montana State because they couldn’t do anything. I think that’s going to over inflate right there. I think North Dakota State survived the most potent offensive attack even being as hurt as they are and still they’re able to just lean on people and their physicality is overwhelming. So I think South Dakota State is a little bit more erratic than they looked last week against the bad opponent. I would bet the Bison again. I just don’t think there’s any reason not to.
Speaker 1:
Yeah, the question said Bison and I just read it off. Just ridiculous because it’s Bison, that’s plural. There’s no S at the end of that, so my apologies on that. We did have a question from Kenneth and I asked him… It doesn’t look like he’s still here, but his question was, can all three of you give a best and worst in your opinion for any particular team? And he said, thanks and Merry Christmas. I don’t know exactly what best and worst for any particular team is.
Speaker 2:
Thanks and Merry Christmas, Kenneth. Ask us again tomorrow so we can clarify that.
Speaker 1:
Yeah, give us a little more details here because you could spell off any team and I could give you something really good about them or something bad other than maybe Georgia. But yeah, I got no idea. Let’s see. Is there anything else here? Let’s see. No, I think we’re okay. If anybody else wants to reach out to us, you can always hit us up on Twitter. Of course, the details are in the description, of course there you can always comment on this show as well. We try and do our best to go through and answer as many questions as possible there also. All right, let’s do our picks recap. Let’s give you what our best bets of today’s show have been. Parker, I’ll let you start this one off.
Speaker 2:
I am going to go with Memphis Tigers minus seven and a half, and I’m going to go with the East Carolina Fighting Pirates minus eight. So two favorites here.
Speaker 1:
I like it. It’s a tribute to Mike Leach. I understand where you’re going with that. I’m going to roll Wake Forest minus one against Missouri. I like Middle Tennessee plus seven against San Diego State. And I like New Mexico State plus three and a half against Bowling Green. Kyle, what have you got for us?
Speaker 3:
I’m going to take the Ragin’ Cajuns plus seven against Houston, and then I’ll also take East Carolina team total over 35 and a half.
Speaker 1:
I like it. All right, the chat has been great today. You guys are always wonderful. Thank you, Julius, DDB, Big Luji, everybody else. You guys are wonderful. Thank you for of course coming into the show. I think that’s going to close things out. Remember, go ahead and like the video for us if you’ve not done so already, subscribe to the channel if you haven’t done that. And of course, subscribe to the podcast, the BetUS Football Show on Apple, Spotify, whatever your favorite podcast app is, share the show up, tell your friends about it. Double-check the notes, make sure we’re good. Yes, we are good. Make sure and tune in again tomorrow. We are going through a whole lot more games tomorrow. So Wednesday 1:00 PM Eastern Time. Tell your friends, come on back and jump into the chat. With that said, for BetUS sportsbook , where the game begins. God bless college football, and we’ll see you all again tomorrow.
