Parker, looking at this matchup, I mean if Plumlee’s hamstring is not ready to roll here, Mikey Keene is in the transfer portal. Looks like he’s probably going to end up at Fresno State so he is not playing in this game. Thomas Castellanos is going to be the guy if Plumlee can’t go. This has certainly got me leaning Duke. I don’t feel great about anything in this game, but I’m curious what you’re looking at.
Parker Fleming:
Yeah, that’ll be the first thing that I look for, absolutely, is whether Plumlee is going to be full strength, because he definitely has a lot… The way they want to run their offense with Gus, they need him as a rushing threat and I think that’s really the issue when Keene was in is they couldn’t do everything they could do. Interesting to note that the quarterbacks for both teams, Leonard and Plumlee for Duke and UCF are both the rushing leaders for the team here. So, very, very mobile quarterback. A lot depends on the quarterback being there, which is what you’d expect out of maybe veteran coaches, although Elko is not a veteran head coach, but veteran coaches who have a strong sense of identity on offense, knowing what they want out of a player.
That system really works for one quarterback but maybe not for another. Duke’s offense has been really good with Leonard specifically with the rushing. Again, they’re 11th in EPA per rush and this UCF defense has been slightly better against the rush in the past but still only 57th in rushing EPA. I think that UCF really hasn’t seen many, many mobile quarterbacks and that Leonard should give them some troubles. Duke’s run defense has been really, really good, 17th in EPA per play. That’s UCF’s strength on offense. They’re 15th in EPA per rush, but where Duke has been susceptible is in the past game, 104th in EPA per play allowing 0.129 EPA per pass there.
So, if Plumlee is not healthy or they have to go with a third stringer, forced to button up the offense, there’s potentially some gains to be made by just exploiting a Duke secondary that hasn’t played super well this season. They’re 113th in passing success rate, so that’s something I’ll watch for. The other key stat here, especially with Plumlee out, because he’s so crucial to these third down completions and conversions for UCF is UCF’s 24th on third and fourth down success. On offense, Duke is 73rd. So, if Plumlee’s out, that really changes the calculus of how UCF’s going to be able to move the ball against this Duke defense.
But given the uncertainty with that and potentially a lack of motivation here in UCF with losing some guys for the transfer portal and not winning the American, I’m not sure that I have a strong play on either side here. I am interested to watch how Duke’s defense adapts to whatever UCF puts on the field.
Gary Segars:
That does make sense. I mean you bring up Duke’s defense, their weakness certainly against the past, but if Plumlee’s out there with a bum hamstring, either him or Castellanos, I don’t know that you have to worry too much about the deep passes, especially with some of the guys that are out. The quarterback Brown, the linebacker Jean-Baptiste, the quarterback Keene, of course, already mentioned and of course, the wide receiver O’Keefe. He’s not going to play here. The defensive coordinator has moved over to Arkansas as well. So, UCF certainly feeling the brunt of the opt-outs in this one.
Kyle, let’s move over to you. I’m looking at Kevin Johns, the offensive coordinator for Duke and what he and Riley Leonard should be able to do against this defense. UCF since week eight, number 120 PPA per drive. Just not great at all and I don’t know how successful that running game for UCF can be without Plumlee at quarterback. Now he may play. He just may not be 100%. If he’s not 100%, eh. Kyle, I’m curious which direction you might be leaning on this one.
Kyle Hunter:
Yeah, I mean the million dollar question here is what is the status of Plumlee, whether he’s 100% or whether he’s not even close to 100% makes a huge difference. I don’t think Keene was that good, but the drop off from Keene to Castellanos is pretty big as well. So, Plumlee is really a good runner, not a great passer to start with. So, he’s not really a guy that takes advantage of a secondary as well as he is a scrambler, make things happen with his legs. With that injury, I think he probably is at least limited here. I think it’d be really hard to bet UCF in a game like this. Like you said, Malzahn has not really been very good in these bowl games anyways. I really hate to trust Duke a lot because the ACC was so weak.
Even though I think Elko did a tremendous job and I’m looking forward to see what he does in the future, the team is at least somewhat here because of their turnover margin as well, +14 in turnovers second to USC in the country. So, that helps a lot certainly. Duke had 30 sacks this year. UCF’s offensive line is weak. If Plumlee is not healthy here, I think Castellanos could be in quite a bit of trouble here against this Duke pass rush. I would definitely lean UCF or I would definitely lean Duke going against UCF here in this one. I want to lean to the under. It’s hard to trust the defenses a lot, but this is a high number. It’s not a sexy pick or anything, but taking an under here feels like the right thing to do, even if it’s a little bit tough to do.
To me, I think this is a Duke -3 or an underplay, but I really want to wait and see the status, see if we get anything about Plumlee, because this is one of those. If you find out after you bet it that it’s the opposite of what you were hoping, it could really burn you.
Gary Segars:
I know you are certainly right about that. It could be about a pick’em if you’ve got a healthy Plumlee here, but again, you’ve got a lot of guys out. You’ve got the defensive coordinator going. There’s certainly other issues at UCF that do make Duke a favorite here. I would lean the Blue Devils but no official play on this one. All right. We will move ahead and we are headed to the Liberty Bowl in Memphis, Tennessee. I believe it’s Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium now. I think that’s what they’ve called it. It’s Kansas and Arkansas. Arkansas, a three-point favorite, -105 the odds on that. The total sits at 69. Of course, latest number’s at Bet US.
Kansas, one in four straight up and against the spread in their last five games. Arkansas, four and two against the spread three and three straight up in their last six. So, that’s definitely interesting on this. I’m real curious here. Kyle, I want to start with you on this. This looks like a motivation game. Arkansas has got a bunch of dudes out. The defensive coordinator, Odom is now the head coach at UNLV. Along with that, you’ve got Hazelwood, the linebacker Drew Sanders, the center Stromberg. They have all opted out because they’re going to start their NFL draft prep.
You got the linebacker Bumper Pool that’s out with an injury. The tight end Knox is transferring, the wide receiver Jackson, quarterback Malik Hornsby, the backup for KJ Jefferson, they’re all transferring. So, they’re not expected to play. This seems like a spot where you would have to roll with Kansas or nothing. At least that’s what I’m thinking on it. But Kyle, I’m curious what you think here.
Kyle Hunter:
Yeah, for me, as I was doing my notes on this one, I started liking Kansas more. This is a Kansas team that played the fourth toughest schedule in the country according to Sagarin. Arkansas, 22nd. Now I know yards per play margin on everything. I always say that. All of these things are just one piece, but Kansas 21st in yards per play margin in the country and Arkansas 87th. Pretty surprising to see a team laying points here that has the much worse net yards per play margin, especially when Arkansas has so many guys out. I mean there are so many guys out for them, Bumper Pool, Slusher. The secondary was really bad to start with and now you wonder how are they going to do anything here because secondary’s been a problem.
Jalen Catalon, a really good player, was injured earlier in the year. Now they have a bunch of other guys out. Kansas really balanced on offense. I think Kansas moves the ball here, scores quite a bit. They’re very explosive too. Third in explosiveness in the country for the Jayhawk. Certainly, they’ve been a great story this year. Arkansas 120th in explosiveness allowed, so big plays coming for Kansas definitely. Arkansas, not good in special teams either. The Razorbacks have plenty of negatives. The more I look at this one, the more I think maybe I should have bet Kansas and maybe I still will, but I think Arkansas all scored plenty of points here against the Kansas’ defense that struggles both against the run and the past.
I certainly will lean to the over, but this is a really high number certainly. I like Kansas in this one. I definitely would want to get the three. I think maybe this one even comes down based on what the betting markets are doing right now. I think you might want to go ahead and grab the three if you like Kansas. Two good coaches, fun matchup here. This is a game I’m certainly looking forward to.
Gary Segars:
Yeah, yeah, I am with you there. The over is certainly making sense. It opened at 67.5. It’s now at 69. The spread opened at Arkansas, a 5.5 favorite. It is down to three and I’m with you. Before we bring Parker in, I’m going to go ahead and tell you my official play on this is Kansas due to that motivational factor. I think Arkansas is going to be able to score. I think Kansas is going to be able to score even more. Parker, the Arkansas defensive coordinator for this game is Michael Scheer. He was a GA at Missouri in 2019.
He was a defensive analyst at Arkansas in 2020 and he’s been the linebackers coach for the last two years. You got Lance Leipold scheming against a young guy. This seems like a good spot with Jalen Daniels healed up at this point or at least he should be. He’s had plenty of time. Leipold being four in one against the spread in bowls here, I like what I’m seeing out of this offense. Yeah, I understand the Kansas defense is blah, but that’s the way that I’m certainly leaning. Parker, how do you feel about this one?
Parker Fleming:
Is Michael Scheer related in any way to Rob Scheer? That’s something I need to look up and tweet out if I find out later. Just Gary, knowing that you’re a Memphis guy and this is the Liberty Bowl. That was on my brain when you said his last name. That has no bearing on this game at all. What does have bearing on this game at all is absolutely Lance Leipold pulled being just absolutely mischievous with his offense all season and just being so creative. They’re sixth in EPA per play, 41st in success rate. They are just going to get a big play. Two guys on Kansas, I really love to have big games here. Luke Grimm, absolute workhorse of a wide receiver. He is everywhere. He leads the team in targets and receptions this year.
He is 74% in the slot, 25% out wide. They’ll move him around. He’s left, he’s right, he’s in the backfield everywhere. A guy that just gets open, and then of course, the tight end Mason Fairchild for Kansas always just sneaks out and gets open. He will have at least two touchdown passes that are just wide open attempts at him, because he just starts the block and then gets out and Leipold does a great job scheming. I think that’s really going to put a lot of stress on an Arkansas defense that is bad even when they’re at full strength this season. They’re 95th in EPA per play, specifically they’re 108th in EPA per rush. That’s going to be very problematic for defending the quarterback Jalen Daniels, who is just a very, very good mobile threat.
They’ll run some RPOs and triple option with him as well. It can be very, very much a stress test. The only reason I don’t have Kansas as an official play is I’m just worried about this defense. I think that Arkansas is an absolute talent advantage on offense, but this Kansas defense is 115th in EPA per play, 160th in EPA per pass. Arkansas this season, 18th in EPA per pass. This might just be a fight that goes the distance where these two teams are just throwing haymakers at each other of explosive plays. This one could get out of hand either way very, very easily. So, it should be a lot of points.
Might take a lot of time here with this game in terms of just the clock being stopped in a bunch of passing, but two teams who are at different stages of motivation for sure. I’m really interested to see how creative Kansas can be with a couple weeks to get prepared for one singular opponent with this Leipold offense.
Gary Segars:
I will take it. I will be official on it. Give me Kansas plus the three before this thing gets down to two and a half, two, et cetera. I’ll take the three. I think it’s going to be back and forth. I like the team that has the more explosive offense and maybe the better play caller. That’s maybe saying something against Kendal Briles, but there’s been some offensive issues at Arkansas this year. So, I will roll with Kansas on this one. We’ll move on ahead in the action. This one of course is on Wednesday, December 28th as well. 8:00 PM Eastern Time kickoff on Fox and it is the Holiday Bowl, Oregon against North Carolina. Oregon, a 14.5-point favorite. The total sits at 73.5 and that just feels like a whole lot of numbers here. Just 14.5 in a bowl game is nuts.
Petco Park in San Diego, California is where this one’s taking place. North Carolina, one in five, straight up two and four against the spread in bowl games. Oregon, two and five straight up and against the spread in bowl games. Neither one of these guys tend to show up for bowls for whatever that’s worth. Probably nothing for this season, but neither one of them really ended the year well. Parker, I want to start off with you on this. Oregon has got a few guys that are sitting out. North Carolina has got a lot more than a few guys sitting out. Downs has opted out, the wide receiver, the cornerback Grimes and Storm Duck, which awesome name, the safety Kelly, the linebacker Dilworth, et cetera, they’re all on the portal.
The offense coordinator, Phil Longo now at Wisconsin. This is another one of those where you’re trying to get an idea of exactly what these teams will be without all these pieces that you have seen them have all season. How different can the team be when you subtract these pieces? I don’t know how in the world you could make an official play on this other than maybe expecting points. Which way are you may be leaning or which way would your numbers say you should lean on this one, Parker?
Parker Fleming:
I have the projected points at about 77, so I’m definitely expecting a ton of points here. Obviously, motivation and depth down the stretch will matter for the whole game total there, but two teams that are top 15 in offense. North Carolina is 12th in EPA per play. Oregon is fifth and two teams that are in the bottom quantile of defenses with UNC being 124th and Oregon being 101st. Downs being out is really hard for UNC, because last year, he had like 43% of targets. He was super involved. This season, only about 25%, but the attention that he demanded and commanded on so many plays really let them set up their offense.
If you go back and watch the hits of Drake May this year, a lot of them are just fine Josh Downs and get the ball in that area and know your guy’s going to go get it. So, definitely a huge, huge option for them lost without Downs, but they’re still 11th in EPA per pass this season and they’re passing at a high volume. They’re 31st in rush rate expected. So, they’re really high volume passing, high efficiency. That bodes well and specifically both of these teams are really good on third downs. Eighth for UNC, 12th in the nation on third and fourth down success for Oregon’s offense.
So, I do expect a lot of long drives and I think finishing drives will matter here. I would slightly lean away from UNC in the red zone per se and a little bit more towards Oregon finishing those drives. But again, with the uncertainty, I’m not sure that a side really matters, because who knows who’s going to have a prove it game, who’s going to check out early? But I do think there’s going to be a ton of points here.
Gary Segars:
Yeah. I failed to mention by the way, the offensive coordinator, Kenny Dillingham for Oregon is also gone. He’s going to be the head coach at Arizona State. So, both OCs gone in this game, but again, you’ve still got two really good quarterbacks in Bo Nix and of course Drake May. Kyle, I’m going to move over to you on this. The PPA margin since week eight, Oregon is number 26, North Carolina number 102. You got two really good offenses and you got two just almost dreadful defenses here. Oregon has got an advantage in points per scoring opportunity, points per play margin, turnover margin, et cetera. It’s pretty nuts. Which way would you maybe be leaning in a handicap on this one?
Kyle Hunter:
Well, Parker was talking about one of the previous games could take a long time. I think this game’s going to take a long time, because there’s going to be a lot of scoring, a lot of fast-paced action, a lot of passing. North Carolina’s defense, we know how terrible they were to start with. Then they lose all those guys. The secondary’s in big trouble without Storm Duck, Cameron Kelly, Tony Grimes. They were 120th in success rate allowed and 115th in yards per play allowed. Now, they’re worse. They’re going up against a really efficient, very good offense. I know Dillingham’s not there, but I do think Oregon’s offense will be in fine shape despite that. Josh Downs opted out. That certainly hurts North Carolina quite a bit. They still have a great quarterback for sure.
I agree with Parker that the question is whether North Carolina can finish those drives because we’ve seen some issues in the Red Zone with them in the past. Oregon’s defense is worse than people think. I mean if you look at their numbers, they’re really bad too. They probably won’t be really bad for a long time, especially with the signing day that they’re having here today, but they are right now. Oregon is 101st in the country in yards per play allowed. Opponents have converted on 48.3% of third down conversion attempts, which is about as bad as anybody in the country. Oregon, pretty quick pace. UNC, very fast. I’m very confident Oregon’s going to score quite a few points here.
The team total is something that I thought about. I believe it’s 44. That’s such a high number for a team total definitely. The thing that worries me a little bit about taking a team total over is, “What if North Carolina doesn’t finish those drives and they get way behind?” Late in the game, Oregon’s not really trying to score anymore and they finish with 42 or something like that. I could see that happening. I’m going to go with the first half over in this one. I’m going to take first half over 35.5.
My thought here is this could easily be a 21-17, 24-14 game halftime. I think North Carolina can at least have success for a while on offense. Maybe they don’t have as many great options on offense. I think Oregon can score throughout this game and I think that the first half number is pretty fair in a game like this. They don’t like taking a really high over with a spread of 14.5, because you wonder if it’ll be close at the end to keep the points coming, but in the first half, they should be plenty motivated and be scoring. So, I’m going to take the first half over 35.5.
Gary Segars:
We’ll make it official, 35.5 for Kyle on this, taking the over in the first half. When you really think about it, you look at that number and you’re going, “Man, 35.5 points. That feels like a lot of points in the first half,” but as you said, 24 to 14 will get you there. It’s really not that crazy, 21-17. You’re going over and cashing a check. That isn’t so bad. So, no official play on the spread on this one, because my goodness, why would you? But we expect points galore and Kyle’s going to roll with the first half over. All right.
Reminder here, let me go on and tell you again about the podcast, the Bet US Football Show. It is both the college football feed and the NFL feed all right there in one nice, neat little package, whatever, on your podcast feed. Make sure you are subscribed at Apple or Spotify, whatever your favorite podcast app is. Do us a favor, leave us a nice five-star review. That would certainly help things out. Jump in the chat for the Q&A. I see Corey, I see Mark, I see Gil, I see Joe, I see Julius. You guys are awesome. Kenneth in here as well, which by the way, Kenneth, ask your question from yesterday and give us some more details if you would so kindly. Yeah, you guys make up the show. Jump in the Q&A there. Jump in the chat and give us some questions for the Q&A at the end of the show.
Like the video. I see several more people have liked the video, so go ahead and like that. Make sure subscribe it to the channel and hit the notification bell. It’s going to let you know when we go live. We will be here next week, Tuesday and Wednesday, 1:00 PM Eastern Time. It’s going to be a good time. We got a lot more bowl games to discuss next week as well, so make sure that you are here. If you have not already, go back and watch the Tuesday show, just a reminder. All right. Gentlemen, we’re headed to the Texas Bowl, Houston, Texas NRG Stadium. The Texas Bowl has Texas Tech and Ole Miss and the Rebels are 3.5-point favorite. The total sits at 69.5 on this. Whew, it’s a lot of points and it’s gone up. I mean the total was at 65.5.
Ole Miss, eight and two straight up in their last 10 bowl appearances. They are seven, two, and one against the spread in those. Texas Tech, seven and three straight up in their last 10 bowl appearances. They are three and seven against the spread in bowl games. So, little different trend. Both of them tend to win a lot but one covers and one does not. Kyle, I want to start with you on this. Texas Tech has got some guys out. The linebacker Wilson is injured. He’s got 14 tackles for loss. He’s not going to play. The safety Pearson is transferring. The quarterback Donovan Smith has transferred over to Houston or at least announced so he’s not going to play in this. Tyler Shook, I believe, is going to be starting in this game. He has for the past however many games.
The defense, surprisingly good since week eight, number 45 PPA per drive, number 56 PPA per rush. So, maybe they will be able to put up some a fight against Ole Miss here. Not a ton of opt-outs here for Ole Miss. The defensive end Clowney hadn’t played a whole lot. The quarterback Battle is going to be out. He’s a starter. The quarterback Altmyer, he’s in the portal. I think we should expect a ton of runs from Ole Miss here obviously. But Kyle, when I look at the way that these two teams finished the season, Texas Tech finished three and oh straight up and against the spread in their last three. Ole Miss, once they hit the tough part of their schedule, one and five against the spread in their last six games, just not great. How would you break this one down?
Kyle Hunter:
Yeah, I think we did nail Ole Miss as far as being a team that would be good for a long while and then the end of the year would hurt them with the schedule. There’s a couple different ways you’ll look at this. 57% of the bets on Texas Tech, which surprises me a little bit. So, fading the public would take Ole Miss. The better defense angle would also take Ole Miss, but the problem I have with the better defense, if you just look at yards per play and stuff, we talked about Ole Miss about the middle of the season. I feel like their defense is fake good. They’re not really that good. Parker said at one point, I think, they’re fake good or something like that. Truer words have never been spoken.
Parker Fleming:
Dude, they made Davis Brand look like a star, man.
Kyle Hunter:
Yes, they did. That was foreshadowing of what was to come. So, against good offenses, Ole Miss was bad. So, do we consider Texas Tech a good offense? I mean they’re at least pretty good. Donovan Smith transferring doesn’t really mean anything. He was probably their third best option the way he had played so far this year. Texas Tech, eighth in strength of schedule at Sagarin. Ole Miss, 38th, which is interesting. The big 12 was certainly good. You have two teams that are first and fifth in the nation in tempo, so lots of pace here in this game. Fun matchup, very fast. Like you said, Gary, Ole Miss runs the ball a lot and that’s made them a good under team, because they actually run so much that even though they’re playing fast, the clock is at least moving.
I think Miles Battle out for the Ole Miss secondary hurts quite a bit. Jake Thornton, the O line coach at Ole Miss left to go to Auburn. This is an Auburn team or Auburn team, of course. We’re not going to talk about Auburn today. Ole Miss, +19 in sack margin. Texas Tech, -10 in sack margin. Something to keep an eye on, Ole Miss definitely brings the pressure. Texas Tech not great in past protection. The Ole Miss defense is good at not giving up big plays but they give up a lot of success.
Texas Tech is the opposite. They give up a lot of big plays. I’m going to lean Texas Tech here. I think this is a really tough total to bet, because I like betting unders in general with a team that runs as much as Ole Miss, but you really want to bet an under with the first and fifth tempo teams and you really don’t think either defense is that good. So, I’m just going to lean Texas Tech in this game.
Gary Segars:
I could certainly understand that. I would personally lean the other way. I think Judkins and Evans are going to have big days if Evans is even playing. He was not in for a good portion of the back half of the schedule. Parker, I want to move over to you. PPA margin from week eight on Ole Miss number 36, Texas Tech number 44. You start looking at some of these others that I always like to bring up here. The turnover margin, Ole Miss number 78, Texas Tech number 115. The penalties, Ole Miss number 84, Texas Tech number 50.
Really, when you look at these two teams, which I believe Mike M pulled it up, he said Lane went for the fourth down against Alabama and the whole season changed. Look, these are both the kings of the fourth down attempts. They trust the analytics, they go for it, they risk it when they need to. I think you’re going to maybe see some chaos here. I lean Ole Miss here even with that hook there, but I’m curious what your numbers would say.
Parker Fleming:
Well, I think that there’s two big personnel issues with Texas Tech or three rather that are important. One of them is good, two of them are bad. One, with Tyler Chuck, they’ve been a much better team. When he’s been healthy and they’ve started, I think they’re undefeated with him and five and one since last season when he is healthy. Although some of that might be against FCS competition. So, probably beware. Losing Donovan Smith does change the equation for Texas Tech, specifically in their wins against Oklahoma and Texas. He was pretty involved in the fourth down game. Even in Oklahoma, let me make sure I say that correctly, he had eight snaps but only one rushing attempt.
He was just on the field as a decoy, something to account for and really gives them some dimensionality in an offense where they don’t necessarily have guys or dudes. They have players who are uniquely talented and a mismatch for what they want to do, but Zach Kittley’s really good at just mixing things up. So, without Smith, that really limits them. On the defensive side, Tyree Wilson did declare for the draft. He is by and far the best player on their defense, probably one of the best defensive players in the Big 12. Without that presence on the defensive line, I do think that I would lean towards Ole Miss just being a little more physical in offense. Texas Tech is 72nd in EPA per rush. Ole Miss rushes about as much as anyone in the country at 11.0 rush rate over expected.
That’s close to triple option numbers, the service academies. They really want to pound and ground the ball and they’re 30th at EPA per rush, 15th in rushing success rate. So, I think with physicality, Ole Miss can actually try to slow this game down by rushing a lot and running the clock a lot, which would put a lot more pressure on Tyler Shough to be a little more precise in his passing and the offense to be a little more competent, a little less gimmicky. But that being said, I don’t trust Ole Miss’s defensive backs. I don’t do at all. It wouldn’t surprise me if Tyler Shough has a pretty good game against what has been a not great secondary here.
So, that uncertainty and those opt-outs for Texas Tech make me reluctant to bet on them. If those guys were in, maybe I could talk myself into a Texas Tech bet here, but I think I have to lean towards Ole Miss’s physicality and the run game being the decisive factor here.
Gary Segars:
I think maybe you can correlate those two if you’re going to trust Ole Miss’s physicality in this game. As Kyle was talking about, the under 69.5 might be a good way to roll with this, but no official play here. Just did a couple of leans. Kyle might lean towards Texas Tech. Parker and I are leaning towards Ole Miss. I would certainly lean in under here, because I’m not expecting a ton of points. Remember last year Texas Tech big win over Mississippi State in the Liberty Bowl? They won that game 34 to 7 and 41 total points. I believe the total was somewhere in the lower 60s. So, if they decide to shut them down, they can certainly make this thing an under quickly. Moving right along, we now head from Texas up to New York City. That’s right, the Bronx.
New York Yankee Stadium, the Pinstripe Bowl, Syracuse and Minnesota. The Golden Gophers are a 10-point favorite. The total sits at 42. This one’s on Thursday, December 29th, 2:00 PM Eastern Time on ESPN. Yeah, this is a weird one. The latest numbers are at Bet US by the way. Two teams that like to win and to cover bowl games, Syracuse, four and oh against the spread and straight up in their last four bowls. Minnesota, five and oh against the spread and straight up in their last five bowls. So, trends would make you lean one way or the other, but not in this one. They’re both heading in the same direction. Syracuse, the offense coordinator, Robert Anae is gone. The quarterback Coach Beck does take over so he at least knows the offense.
The defensive coordinator Tony White is now over at Nebraska. The running back Sean Tucker opted out here. You’ve got the defensive lineman Linton, the cornerback Chestnut, the wide receiver Jackson are all in the portal. Minnesota, you’ve got the linebacker Oliver and the safety Dixon in the portal. Tanner Morgan is reportedly practicing. It appears that he is going to at least try and give it a go in this one, but Minnesota, one and four their last five games. Fleck is three and oh against the spread in bowls. Parker, let’s start with you on this one. You look at net points per drive. You’ve got Minnesota at number 15, Syracuse at number 63. That’s just a very basic way of looking at how these two teams have done throughout the season.
PPA margin since week eight is just a disaster for Syracuse, number 108 once they hit the back half of that schedule. Minnesota is number 46 there. This Syracuse team, the wheels fell off. We’ll say that. Is there any way that they reeled this thing back in and maybe find a way to at least cover the tent against the Golden Gophers here?
Parker Fleming:
Yeah, I mean I don’t know how you can bet on Syracuse in the way that they’ve played, but I also don’t love Minnesota limping to the finish here. Minnesota looked good early, but against better competition, faded pretty fast, have had some depth issues. These two teams really embody the idea that recruiting and depth do matter. You need to have more guys on your roster, one to get better reps in practice, but two, so that down the stretch, you’re not plugging in walk-ons and two stars into situations where better guys have played. Minnesota’s 50th in Team Talent Composite this year. Syracuse is 66, and you can see that the bottom drops out pretty quickly for both teams.
I expect we’ll see a ton of rushing here, which would favor Minnesota pending who they actually have rolling out there at running back. If Morgan plays, I’d like to think that the RPO will matter a whole lot. Syracuse’s defense, huge split on running pass, 106th in EPA per rush allowed, 48th in EPA per pass, which leads me to think that not only are they bad against the rush, there are some gains to be made in exploiting the pass. What better way to do that than with an experienced quarterback like Tanner Morgan who’s very good at the RPO glance the read there?
So, I don’t want bet on Minnesota. I got burned a couple times this year and 10 points here in a bowl game, man. I don’t know if I trust them on that, but I have no reason to put any money on this rotting husk of a Syracuse team frankly.
Gary Segars:
I love it. I feel like you took my notes here.
Parker Fleming:
I mean is that unfair? I feel like that’s too hard to say.
Gary Segars:
No, I don’t think it’s harsh.
Parker Fleming:
Six and oh and they have lost five of six. Their only win was a Boston College team who’s not even rotting husk. Boston College has been underground for years now. It’s just a bad situation.
Gary Segars:
Yes, it is most certainly that. Dino Babers I think did enough to save his job this year. So, that is certainly a good thing, but obviously, losing both coordinators before the bowl game, not great. Having the star running back opt out, not great. Kyle, we’re going to move over to you. Parker pointed out there, there’s nothing that could make him bet on Syracuse here, but he also doesn’t trust Minnesota. I literally have nothing points to Syracuse but don’t trust Minnesota to cover. That’s the note that I have here. I’m curious your thoughts on this. How are these teams going to score? That’s what I’m thinking here is I don’t trust either one of them to put up a bunch of points.
Kyle Hunter:
Yeah, I promise, guys. We didn’t actually share notes beforehand, but we think a lot the same on this one and I love the rotting husk. This show’s always a lot of fun to do. We get some good laughs in here as well. Sean Tucker opted out. I think you could probably see that one coming for a long ways. A massive loss for Syracuse certainly. Fullback’s injured for Syracuse as well. They have more injuries than a normal team also. I think Robert Anae is a really big loss. He’s a good offensive coordinator for sure. Minnesota on offense, when Autman-Bell went out with an injury, that limited their upside on offense for sure. He was a really good player. Morgan has had a concussion and no one’s really saying too much about his status.
The odds moving toward Minnesota is making me think that he’s going to play. I wouldn’t think that they’d want him to take a lot of shots here, because he’s had several concussions at this point. Minnesota’s backup quarterback hasn’t been very good. I’m not going to try to pronounce his name, but the Golden Gophers are going to run the ball a lot in this game regardless of who’s a quarterback. I think it’d be extremely run heavy. It wouldn’t surprise me if it’s 70% of their plays or more are runs. Minnesota’s 129th in tempo out of 131 teams. If they’re running that much and they’re playing that slowly, that clock is going to be bleeding big time. My one worry about the under is that Syracuse’s run defense is pretty bad.
I mean that’s a bad run defense. They might be gashing them with the run. The hope is if they know the run’s coming, they can at least slow it down at least some. I do remember having the under in last year’s bowl game between Minnesota and West Virginia. At the end of that game, Minnesota was doing a fantastic job of bleeding the clock. I mean these guys, they get about four yards every play and run the clock down to one second and they take up eight minutes to finish the game. I’m going to hope for something the same here. Syracuse offense allowed 41 sacks this year. They have really bad offensive line. We could have said that for several years in a row certainly. Syracuse’s defense, not good overall, but they have not given up big plays.
I was really surprised to see 32 plays of 20 yards or more, which is second best in the country. So, they give up quite a bit of success but not big plays. So, the only thing that I wish is I wish I knew more about the weather forecast. This is outside obviously at Yankee Stadium. The weather geek in me wants to know exactly what the weather will be like. When we’re talking about them quite a few days ahead, it’s hard, but we do know it’s the type of year, the time of year where this is the type of game that could have a good thing for under, because you’re talking late December and New York City.
It could definitely help. It won’t hurt. So, I’m going to take the under in this one. I’m going to take under 42, because I like Minnesota running the clock. I don’t think Syracuse’s offense is any good at this point. So, I think under 42 is a good look.
Gary Segars:
I think that does make sense. Official play, Kyle, under 42 on this. Yeah, you brought up Syracuse not giving up big plays. You don’t have to have big plays against them when they are number 126 in defensive success allowed since week eight. They’re bottom seven in the country or bottom five, I guess, bottom five or six in the country of when it comes to defensive success allowed. That is brutal. Absolutely brutal. So, I do like an under here. I could see this one crawling down. It’s been stuck at 42 basically since the line opened. Yeah, I would expect it to move a little bit. All right. Reminder, go ahead and like the video if you would so kindly. Make sure and subscribe to the channel and hit that notification bell. It’s going to let you know when we go live here.
Of course, we are doing that every Tuesday and Wednesday at 1:00 PM Eastern Time. Along with that, if you’ve not already, jump into the chat for the Q&A at the end of the show. Excuse me. We got Kenneth Collins, we got Mike M, we got Mark, we got Gil in here. You guys are fantastic. You keep the chat rolling. Honestly, I feel like the chat is probably the best part of the show to be completely honest here. Don’t forget about yesterday’s show. Don’t forget about the podcast. We’re moving right along. Gentlemen, Thursday, December 29th at 5:30 PM Eastern Time. We have the Cheez-It Bowl. That’s right. That’s right. The Cheez-It Bowl, Oklahoma against Florida State.
Now Florida State is a 9.5-point favorite here, juiced at -115. The total sits at 65.5. This one is at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Florida. So, I would expect Florida State to have a little bit of a home field advantage here. Kyle, I do want to start with you on this. Oklahoma, two and three straight up and against the spread in their last five bowl games. Florida State, this is their first bowl since 2019, so you’re not really used to hearing that. They had a streak going for a very, very long time, but alas, this is the first one. So, I would expect a little bit of motivation here for Florida State. They are five and oh straight up, four and one against the spread to end the season. Obviously, we all went with Florida State at the end of the year against the Gators and they did not get that cover.
But man, they put up some points. The issue that I see here, Kyle, is that Eric Gray is opting out of this game along with the tackles Harrison and Morris. The defensive lineman Redmond have opted out. Florida State, there’s not a bunch of guys that have opted out here. I think we’re waiting on Lovett. We’re waiting on Lovett. I know the defensive lineman Jared Verse is going to play, the safety Robinson. Travis is going to play. I see a lot of things to point Florida State here. I’m curious what your handicap would say.
Kyle Hunter:
I think Eric Gray means a lot to the Oklahoma offense. I mean, if you look at the data, he has been far better than most people realize. So, I think him opting out is a massive loss. Oklahoma will probably get their points as well, at least a decent amount, but you look at Oklahoma’s defense. Florida State should have a lot of success on offense in this game. Florida State was fifth in the nation in yards per play margin, +2.11. It feels like a lot of people don’t realize how good they were, especially late in the season. There’s no reason to think Florida State won’t be motivated in this game either. I think they’ll be highly motivated. No really big guys opting out, at least thus far.
The question usually for Florida State on offense is how good will the passing game be, because they usually can run. I don’t even know if they need to throw it much in this game, because Oklahoma’s run defense 90th in success rate allowed against the run. This is going to be one of the better rushing attacks they played all year. For so many years, that was the offensive line that really held Florida State back. They’re pretty good on the offensive line this year. I think credits to Norvell for fixing that mess that Jimbo left behind for him. That was really tough spot to be in certainly.
Florida State 51st in strength to schedule, Oklahoma 11th, which is the one thing that’s going to make you be at least hesitate a little bit in this game. It’s rare to see a team with that much weaker of a schedule favored by this much. So, I did hesitate here. I’m going to let the other guys have the official play in this one, but I definitely lean Florida State in this one.
Gary Segars:
I see where you’re coming from on this. Norvell is oh and four against the spread in bowl games. So, that certainly makes you think now that was all at Memphis. So, it’s a little different when you’re at Florida State, I think, but yes, that strength of schedule certainly plays a part of this. Florida State, number three PPA per rush since week eight as you brought up, Kyle. Oklahoma’s defense is number 97 in that metric. It looks like something that Florida State should certainly be able to take advantage of. You start looking at the offense for Florida State against Oklahoma, just overall number six in PPA per drive since week eight.
Oklahoma, defense number 84. Parker, I’m going to you on this. Oklahoma, their offense leans on the running game. Without Eric Gray, I don’t know how successful they can be even against Florida State who’s number 72 PPA per rush since week eight. I’m real curious here what you think. I’m going to roll with Florida State, but I’m curious where you’re going here.
Parker Fleming:
December 4th in the group chat to both of you, I said, “Initial impressions on bowls, Florida State is going to womp Oklahoma.” I stand by that. That was one of my earliest bets here. The wind is out for Oklahoma. I mean, they’re two and five and they beat an Oklahoma State team who didn’t have 22 starters and an Iowa State team who can’t score if you hand them the ball on your own two yard lines. So, really, really rough for them down the stretch. Gray is a quarter of their yards. Before you even get into advanced metrics, you just look at rushing and passing. He’s a quarter of their offense, takes away a huge weapon for them. They’re down two offensive linemen starters. Not that we’re putting this in as voodoo into a handicap era, but they had a pretty bad day today on signing day.
I think there’s a lot of wind taken out of the sales of Oklahoma right now. They certainly have the opportunity to process or to prepare, but man, Florida State is outkicked. The down and down business of football for two years in a row now. Norvell’s team has played much better than their record. They’re fourth in raw EPA per play margin. They’re 13th on offense. Specifically, they’re 20th in EPA per rush, which is what Oklahoma’s defense is so bad at. They’re 95th in EPA per rush allowed.
We’ve seen the Baylor game. They allowed 300 yards in rushing and just couldn’t stop them to save their lives. You get a mobile quarterback in there and really gets to test this defense. This is one of my favorite plays. I’m going to trust Florida State here to take advantage of a Sooners team that’s really just not in it right now.
Gary Segars:
I am with you on this. I am going to roll with Florida State as well to cover the nine and a half. It opened at eight. It has crept up a little bit. I’m surprised it’s not gotten to that 10 just yet, but again, this game is eight days away from today. I think this number will continue to grow as we get a little bit closer. This looks like a huge mismatch. Maybe Dylan Gabriel has a little bit of success here, but man, you are relying on him being healthy. You are relying on a lot here. So, I will ride Florida State as well as Parker. Those are the official plays on this one. We’ve got one more game to discuss. So, hey, let’s take it on back down to Texas and this one’s in San Antonio at the Alamo Dome. It is the Alamo Bowl 9:00 PM Eastern Time on ESPN on Thursday, December 29th.
Texas, a four-point favorite. The latest total is 67.5 on this. That’s up from 65. Of course, latest numbers at Bet US. Texas, four and oh straight up and against the spread in their last four bowl games. None of those were coached by Steve Sarkisian because he did not make a bowl last year. Three and one straight up and against the spread to end the season. Washington, this is their first bowl since 2019. They are three and oh straight up and against the spread to end this season as well. Michael Penix certainly ended on a hot streak there against Washington State, against Oregon, et cetera. This team looks really, really good right now. The Texas running backs, Robinson, Bijan Robinson, I think everybody knows him. The linebacker Overshown, they are opting out.
I believe that the other running back Johnson is opting out of this or at least it’s been reported. The transfers Hudson Card, so if anything happens with Quinn Ewers, who knows what’ll happen there. The offense is number 64 PPA per drive since week eight. The offense hadn’t been great. I think that’s easy to see here. Washington’s offense has been awesome, but their defense, not very good. Number 89 PPA per drive since week eight on that. Kyle, I want to start with you here. The mismatch would’ve been the Texas running game against that Washington defense. Washington’s defense is number 105 in success rate allowed against the running game. Which direction would you be looking for a handicap here?
Kyle Hunter:
Well, I mean you asked yourself at the beginning, if Texas wasn’t full strength, what would this line be? Because it would be a lot different than this definitely. I think we would all think differently about how we would handicap the game even at a different line, because like you said, Texas could run on Washington very well, but instead of having the best running back in the country, they’re fourth string running back. So, that’s a pretty big difference. Viewers will probably have some success here. This is a game where the key to the handicap in my opinion is, “What is the motivation level for Texas?” They have had a lot of guys opt out.
I know it’s a virtual home game for them, but Washington seems to care a lot about this game. Michael Penix has been quoted several times talking about how excited he is to play in a bowl game. I don’t think anybody’s going to opt out here for Washington or at least nobody significant. I think this is a game where they’re highly motivated. Texas was a lot better against the run than the pass and that doesn’t make you match up too great against Washington because Washington’s going to throw it around. They throw it on nearly 60% of their offensive plays. I think they’ll throw it a lot in this one. Fast track, depleted Texas defense. I think Washington will score quite a few points here and I would consider a Washington team total over in this game.
The question is, “How many will Washington give up?” I think Texas will still get their points. Like I said on the fast track, Washington’s defense has been beatable. This one, I have to bring up strength to schedule, because obviously, there’s a big difference. Texas third in strength the schedule, Washington 57th. This is a tough handicap for me and inconsistent team in Texas too. We’ve seen them look very good at times. We’ve seen them look very ordinary at times. I lean Washington, but I think my favorite play here would be a Washington team total over honestly.
Gary Segars:
I could certainly understand that, especially on that fast track. I would expect a lot of points in this game. I mean maybe just an overall total or an over for that total would make a whole lot of sense here. Parker, I’m looking at some more of these numbers here. Number one in passing down success since week eight is Washington. Texas’s defense is number 81 in that metric. Washington is number five in offensive PPA per drive. Texas’s defense is number 43 overall. When you look at the overall I guess efficiency numbers, you start looking at the fact that neither one of these teams turns the ball over.
Washington is number eight. Texas is number 15 in giveaways per game. Both average only about six penalties per game. So, that’s pretty low as far as the country is concerned. Number 10 and number 11 in net points per drive. But you start looking at PPA margin, especially from week eight on, and Washington is number 17 in PPA margin. Texas is number 42 and now you got guys that are going to be out for Texas as well. That is certainly something to consider here. I like Washington in this game. Parker, I’m curious what you like here.
Parker Fleming:
I’m going to roll with you as well. I want to say one for Texas, Robinson is their third string running back who definitely would play and maybe start at a lot of FBS schools. They are extremely deep in the running back room, but he doesn’t have a lot of experience this year. Not a lot of reps and I think that is going to matter a little bit. So, I don’t expect their running game to completely bottom out, but I am worried about their defense, specifically without over Overshown, who is number two in tackles and number five in pressures for that defense. He plays a swing role and is really important lunch pin there. They’re going to have to replace that production. As you both mentioned, I mean Michael Penix can just sling it.
We did that on the Heisman show and talked about in terms of total EPA matching the Heisman candidates to historical Heisman candidates. It feels like Michael Penix was left out. I think he’s got a lot to prove here and he’s coming back next year for a season where I believe Washington is thinking Pac-12 championship and playoff. I think that’s in their sights next season. So, a lot to prove here. I think there’s a huge motivation gap. I saw someone in the chat did say Texas had a good day today and they did. They recruited well. They’ve been recruiting well for a while now. At some point, they’ve got to stop with the next year and have it this year. I really don’t feel like this year is this year for Texas. So, you get a couple opt-outs there. You get some focus onto next year.
Definitely going to want to protect Ewers, one because they want him healthy for next year, but two, because they really don’t want to have to put a third stringer out there and risk something bad happening there to their quarterback room. So, a huge motivation gap here. Washington’s offense into the season number one overall in raw EPA per play, second in passing, third in rushing. They’re first and third and fourth down success rate on offense. Texas’s defense is 92nd and they’re losing arguably their best player. I think Washington’s going to put up a lot of points. I’m going to ride with the Huskies plus four.
Gary Segars:
I am doing the same. So, we’ll make it official. Parker and myself both Washington plus the four. It just feels like too many points. Maybe Washington doesn’t win, but this thing I think may be about a field goal. Either direction, it’s going to be a lot of points. I expect some points on that fast track. All right. Gentlemen, let me go ahead and tell you right quick. We have got an odds boost for all of you and maybe some of you saw it in the chat. Who knows? But we’ve got an odds boost for South Alabama tonight. For them to win the first quarter against Western Kentucky, it was +100. It is now +150 over at Bet US.
So, if you want to take advantage of that, heading into the New Orleans Bowl this evening, that sounds like a pretty decent play. There’s been a lot of steam on Austin Reed and Western Kentucky here lately, but I got to tell you, I still like South Alabama there. So, let’s do the Q&A little bit. Well, here, how about this? Let me remind everybody first to like the video if you would please and tell your friends about the show. Make sure you are subscribed and share it out, all that good stuff. That certainly helps us out with the podcast as well. We’re going to dive into some questions here.
Let’s see. We’ve got Kenneth Collins. All right. Let’s see. Guys, this is from Kenneth Collins. I’m going to clean up my question from yesterday. I want the three of you to give a most surprising or overachieving team and a most disappointing team. I respect all three of you. Merry Christmas. Hey, I appreciate that. We respect you as well. Kyle, do you have a most overachieving team this year?
Kyle Hunter:
I’m going to go Tulane. Tulane with a huge bounce back. I mean 11 and 2 against the spread this year. Fantastic season from them. I think we all thought they’d be better. I mean last year, they had a really disappointing season, but to go from what they were last year to be in the type of bowl game that they are now, just a massive, massive difference. So, super impressive. I got to think on the disappointment here for a minute. Who would be the big disappointment? There was obviously plenty of disappointments around this year.
Gary Segars:
Here, let me grab the overachieving. I’ll give one out. Don’t get me wrong, you and I both were all over Troy this year because of the changeover in coach. But for them to move to 12 wins this year, that is a massive, massive improvement. I did not expect that. I expected a good year. I expected them to win the Sunbelt West. I can’t tell you I expected them to go 12 and 2. Just not going to be able to do that. So, that would be my overachieving team this year. Parker, if you got an overachiever here and then we’ll go back around with some disappointing ones.
Parker Fleming:
Yeah, one came to mind for both of them. So, I’m happy for this question, Kenneth, and thanks for clarifying it. TC is my overachieving team. I thought eight and four would be an excellent season this year based on they had returning production. That’s great. But where they’ve been the last couple years and frankly the nature of their wins this season, how close they were in a lot of situations. I think TCU has absolutely overperformed what anyone could have expected perhaps to a bigger degree than anyone in the nation in the playoff and had an undefeated regular season.
Gary Segars:
Kyle, how about a disappointing team here?
Kyle Hunter:
Yeah, so this is the obvious one. When I was rolling through my head, I’m like, “I have to say Miami here.” I mean the Hurricanes, what a terrible season. Five and seven in Crystal Bowl season there and then 2 and 10 against the spread. I think it was set up for them to have success in an ACC that was so weak and for them to be that bad was pretty shocking.
Gary Segars:
I think that I will stay in the ACC. I think I’m going to go Wake Forest. Yeah, maybe you shouldn’t say that that’s disappointing for them to go seven and five. But when you’ve got Sam Hartman, when you’ve got AT Perry, you’ve got everything rolling in the way that they looked against Clemson early in the season, it really looked like they were going to be a really, really good team. I think they were up to top 10 at some point this season and the wheels just fell off towards the end. So, Wake Forest would be mine on that. Parker, who have you got for a disappointment?
Parker Fleming:
I think there’s a lot of answers. You could certainly say North Carolina State with just how much they were hyped this off season and how they got the critical mass of consensus dark horse to the point of being overrated. I’m going to say Central Michigan just because I was really high on them. I like Daniel Richardson a lot. I thought this was going to be my Mac darling this year and boy did the bottom fall out of that. I’m staring at Central Michigan win the Mac West and win the Mac ticket that aren’t worth me lighting them on fire to keep myself warm.
So, definitely an underachieving team this season. The other one that came to mind was BYU. They returned a lot of a bad defense and arguably got worse. So, it’s certainly not something you expect in the history of college football and how development works. BYU was poised to have a really, really good season, had the schedule to maybe do something crazy, and just could not defend anyone to save their lives. So, that was another disappointing team.
Gary Segars:
I want Oklahoma and Wisconsin fans to take note that we did not include your teams in the most disappointing, just so you know.
Parker Fleming:
They’re injured. I’m not going to make fun of you because half your roster was injured. That’s not fair.
Gary Segars:
Agree, agree. We’ve got another question from Corey Montgomery and I’m trying to pull up the recruiting standings here, because he says, “Do you think the Saban era of dominance is over or do you think they will make it back to the top in the coming seasons?” As it currently sits today on early signing day, Alabama is the number one recruiting class in the country. They have got a historically high recruiting class number. They still got two more guys that I think are going to pick them later on. I think they’re going to be fine.
They lost two ball games this year. I don’t think the era of dominance is over, but I don’t think that anybody’s going to be really dominating anymore other than maybe Georgia and that maybe because of the change in strength of schedule. I think the SEC West is still stronger than the SEC East at this point, but that’s me. Parker, Kyle, either one of you want to chime in on that one?
Parker Fleming:
If they make a field goal against Tennessee, are we talking about their era of dominance being over? No. So, no. I mean Saban’s going to hang it up. That’s going to happen and that’s going to be different. But while he’s still there, I’m not saying they’re descending into madness. It’s also true that people that Saban has taught how to run successful college football programs are doing that and he’s getting a little more competition, sure. But no, I think that’s an overreaction.
Gary Segars:
I think so as well. Kyle, what about you? How about this? Kyle, I’m going to toss this one to you. Taylor says, “Do you guys think Drake May might leave North Carolina for the money?” What do you think here?
Kyle Hunter:
I don’t know that I’m very good at predicting something like this. So, I don’t want to get too far into this. I’m going to go back and say Alabama, I don’t think the era of dominance is over. Now you could argue that there won’t be anybody that dominates as much as what they were for a good while, especially in the era that we’re going to be going into. So, depends on what your definition of dominance is, but Alabama’s not going anywhere. So, as far as Drake May, I was assuming Drake May would stay there, but if somebody else has something-
Parker Fleming:
I think he announced that he was. I think I saw that.
Gary Segars:
Yes. He’s already announced. So, Mack Brown came out and made some statements about other schools offering a lot of money. Oh, you know who they are and everything else. Nobody’s ever going to name names because everybody does it or they just don’t want to name names because they can’t prove anything, which is all just insane. It would not shock me if Drake May was offered a ton of money to go to a number of different places, but Drake May is a legacy guy at North Carolina. His dad played there. I mean his brother hit the Elite Eight shot that took him to the final four back in 2017 or 2018, whenever it was Luke May that hit that shot against Kentucky. No, he isn’t leaving North Carolina.
From what I understand, he got a hand in picking who his offensive coordinator’s going to be for next year, which will be Chip Lindsay. Interesting. So, I don’t think he’s going anywhere. Joe Exotic jumps in. Who would’ve thought Tiger King himself? Let’s see. Which two of three games would you target with Baylor versus Air Force? Joe, I’m not asking the guys this question. You need to go back and watch the rest of our shows from yesterday and from last week. We gave out some best bets. Those are the ones that we would target there. So, we love you, Joe, but go back and watch last week’s show was and yesterday’s show.
Mike M. said, “Hopefully, we can have a conversation about paying the players. Do you guys think it’s good for college sports keeping more fourth and fifth year players to stay and improve the sport?” Parker, I’m going to let you start. I think that we all might have an opinion on this. I’m curious of yours. You go ahead and begin this thing.
Parker Fleming:
Well, one, we’re not paying the players. We’re allowing players to make money off of being the status that comes with college football players. So, there’s certainly some reforms to go before we talk about paying players, but the fact that they’re getting money does make a lot of sense. There’s a huge benefit to these players and their families specifically because this is guaranteed money. You’re seeing guys, “Hey, I can stay an extra year and get X amount guaranteed to me through NIL as opposed to go to the NFL and risk getting hurt and missing a roster and not getting any money or getting cut, not making the 53 man, whatever.”
So, I think the guaranteed money is good. I still think when we’re talking about all this, we’ve got to account for two things. One, it’s still the Saban era, which colors how we think about college football because someone’s been so dominant. Two, the COVID year is still trickling through these rosters. That is a huge thing. Anytime we talk about, “Is this good for the sport? Is this bad for the sport?”, we really need to think about how COVID rosters have made this a weird time and a different situation. So, I’m generally pro these athletes making their money. I think that most of the coaches that are talking loudly about tampering either one or they have to work harder to try and keep these guys.
You saw Ryan Day talking today about recruiting after commitments and I think that’s good for player welfare that you have to appease these guys and make sure they’re still your guys or they’re people who got outbid who are trying to do the same thing and saying, “Someone paid more money for this player. I’m not mad about paying money for players in principle. I’m just mad that someone else paid more money for me.” So definitely a lot of things to consider in that conversation.
Gary Segars:
I tend to agree with you, yes, they’re not getting paid by the universities yet, but that would not shock me if that is something that is coming down the line with all of these gigantic billion dollar television deals that are happening. If you want to slow down the transfer portal, because Mark Holmes jumped in. He said, “The players deserve the money. The transfer portal on the other hand is killing NCAA football.” You basically have unlimited free agency going on every single year, which is perfectly fine. The ones that are really, really good will get what they deserve and some of them will get more than what they deserve. I don’t know that that’s necessarily hurting anybody other than the coaches and these teams that are just used to controlling everything.
It’s a different world that we’re in right now. I think it’s good for college sports to continue to adapt. Now, would it maybe have been better for them to do it piece by piece as we go along? Yeah, maybe, so that everybody can get used to different changes instead of everything happening at one time. Just a gigantic natural disaster hitting the sport all at the same time, but I think this is good. Anything that’s better for the players I think is a good thing going forward. Kyle, I’m curious your thoughts here.
Kyle Hunter:
Yeah, I mean I tend to agree with Mark that the money is the one thing. The transfer portal has been a mess. I mean I understand why the transfer portal is there, but I feel like they’re making the rules as they go. I think that’s what Gary was saying too. If we had a little bit more clarity as far as exactly how this worked, it’d probably be better. Obviously, I don’t want to be that guy that’s like, “Oh, I like the good old days and stuff like that.” But at the same time, the bowl games are pretty rough with the current situation and I wish that there was a better way to compensate and make that more of a motivation for them to be there for the bowl game.
I certainly understand the guys opting out because their welfare is super important, but I agree with what Parker said too that you could see a lot of these guys end up staying in college instead of going pro because there’s some guaranteed money there on the college side from the NIL stuff. So, don’t be surprised if you see some of these guys you thought were going to go pro stick around a little bit longer.
Gary Segars:
Yes, I think you’re going to see it with college basketball as well. You’re already seeing it. Guys like Drew Timme at Gonzaga, et cetera. This isn’t a college basketball show, but Oscar Tshiebwe at Kentucky, these are not guaranteed NBA guys, but they can stick around in college basketball a little bit longer. Yeah, I think it makes a lot of sense. So, yeah, I’m excited. That was a really good question, Mike. I’m excited to be able to talk about stuff like that during some of these Q&As. So, I do think we are rapidly approaching the end of the show. So, let’s go ahead and do our picks recap here. We’ll let you know what our best bets for today are. Parker, I’ll let you start this thing off.
Parker Fleming:
I’m going to ride with Florida State -9.5, Washington +4 in the Alamo Bowl.
Gary Segars:
I like both of those. I will also ride Florida State -9.5. I’ll take the Huskies +4 against Texas and I’m going to roll with Lance Leipold, Kansas +3 against Arkansas. Kyle, what have you got for us?
Kyle Hunter:
I’m going to take North Carolina and Oregon over 35.5 in the first half and I’ll take Syracuse and Minnesota under 42 for the full game. Guys, I like these plays here today, so I’m feeling positive about this.
Parker Fleming:
It’s a good slate.
Gary Segars:
Really good too. Yes. Very, very nice. Everybody, I think this is going to close out the show. Before we get out of here, go on and like the video for us if you would so kindly and do me a favor and make sure that you are subscribed to the channel. Again, we’re trying to hit some more goals before the end of the year, but before we do our log off, I do want to tell everybody, one, happy holidays, Merry Christmas. Whatever your phrase for celebrating this time of year is, we don’t want to offend, but also we just want to let you know that we certainly appreciate all of you that watch and that listen.
This has been an incredible season. It’s not over yet, but with Christmas right around the corner, we do want to say thank you for watching and for listening and for tuning in and being a part of the chat, being a part of this community here. This has been a really, really enjoyable season and we cannot thank you enough for being here. So, with that said, guys, for Bet US, where the game begins. God bless, college football, and we’ll see you all again next week.
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