College Football Bowl Picks and Predictions (PT.5) | NCAA Football Odds & Analysis

Gary Segars:

Welcome in to the BetUS College Football Show. I’m your host, Gary Segars. You can follow me on Twitter @garywce. This is bowl preview number five. That’s right. Let me go ahead and bring in the experts. We’ve got games to discuss today, so we want to bring them in first. On the left side of the screen, of course our analyst, I call him the numerical guru, he is the numbers guy, the stats guy if you will, Parker Fleming @statsofwar on Twitter. Parker, how are you feeling? We’ve had a pretty good week as far as picks go since we last convened.

Parker Fleming:

Yeah, I got to tell you, there have been few college football games this season that have been more gratifying as a TCU fan to watch Baylor have to play in almost negative temperatures in TCU stadium and just absolutely get walloped by a service academy. I do want to shout you out, Gary, a pretty great week from you. I think I saw a handicapper of the week tweet that was well deserved. You’re killing bowl season, so I’m glad to keep this rolling.

Gary Segars:

Yeah, didn’t do well on the first Saturday of bowl season, but since then 4-0, BetUS capper of the week. I don’t really know that I consider myself a capper, but at this point, hey, I’ll take it. I’ll take it. So, I take that award more as a win for the college football nation here at BetUS. So you guys are certainly a part of that, because y’all have taught me all the things that I know. Let me go ahead and bring in on the left side, excuse me, on the right side of the screen, kyle Hunter, he’s the award-winning professional handicapper. He’s the guy that really knows his stuff. He is @kylehunterpicks on Twitter. Kyle, how are you feeling my friend?

Kyle Hunter:

I’m doing well, Gary. I hope you guys had a good Christmas and hope all the people on the chat and viewers did as well. Gary, I think you talked yourself down too much when it comes to that college football knowledge and I would call you a handicapper based on how well you break these teams down, but great run there. I’m still a little bit upset Louisiana didn’t cover, I don’t know how that happened, but that was a right side, wrong way, but at least it was a tie instead of a loss.

Gary Segars:

I would just be glad that you did not get the number at six and a half, which is where it was at the day of the game, right? Think about all those Louisiana backers that got six and a half. There’s a reason why you took the number where you did, right?

Kyle Hunter:

Oh yeah, for sure. And I was hoping that Holgorson wouldn’t throw a touchdown there right at the end, but alas he did and that’s the way it goes sometimes. And I second what Parker was saying, you’ve been spot on with your calls here of late. Great calls for sure of late. Let’s see if we can keep it going.

Gary Segars:

Well, I certainly appreciate you guys. Look, you guys are the stars of the show I’m just trying to toss a few things out here and there, but I do appreciate it for sure. It’s a lot of fun breaking these games down and we have got more to discuss. But before we do that, let me go ahead and jump into our recap. We’re going to tell you exactly what our records are on the season. We try and be as transparent as possible. So far on the year, all the way through bull season, et cetera. I am 52, 37, and 3. Kyle, you are sitting at 31, 28, and 1. Parker 41, 46, and 1. That gives us an overall record of 124, 111, and 5. That boosted us back over 52.77% and of course you guys know that I am at home, which means that my moronic dogs are going to bark every now and then. So, I apologize for those.

Let me go ahead and tell you guys first, do me a favor and like the video and subscribe to the channel if you would so kindly. That will certainly help us out as far as the algorithm, et cetera. We are still trying to grow this thing, if I’m not mistaken we are not quite to 12,000 subscribers yet, but we’re hoping that we can get there. So you guys will do us a favor and subscribe to the channel. Along with that, hit that bell, the notification bell, it’s going to let you know when we go live and that is every Tuesday and Wednesday at 1:00 PM Eastern time. Now, as the season dwindles down, it may not be 1:00 PM Eastern on every Tuesday and Wednesday, I believe next week we’re going to do Tuesday for our national championship preview, but we will figure all that out and we will let you know exactly what we are going to do with that.

Now there’s also the podcast as well, the BetUS Football Show. You can go ahead and check that out on any of your favorite podcast apps, so go ahead and knock that out as well. Subscribe, leave a nice five star review, let me go ahead and do this as well. We have an NCAAF odds boost, guys, over at BetUS. The Guaranteed Rate Bowl is this evening that is Wisconsin and Oklahoma State. Our boost on this, if you go over to BetUS.com, Wisconsin to score 26 points or more against Oklahoma State, it was plus 100. It has been boosted to plus 150. So if you feel like Mr. Allen is going to have a good day running the football, if you think that this team is going to show out for Justin Leonard’s last game as the interim head coach, might be something you might want to pay attention to.

I know that that Oklahoma State defense has not exactly been anything to write home about. So, the boost from plus 100 to plus 150, go ahead and check that out over at BetUS.

All right gentlemen, we are ready to dive into the games. Let’s go to game number one here. This is Friday, December 30th, at 12:00 PM Eastern Time, Maryland and NC State. And the Wolf Pack, a one and a half point favorite. The total now sits at 46 and those numbers of course courtesy of BetUS. This is at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina, 12:00 PM Eastern Time again on ESPN on Friday.

Now, I want to start off with you Parker on this one. Maryland got a big win last year in the Virginia Tech game, whatever their bowl game was last year, they went 0-5 against the spread at one point just in the middle of the year, but they did cover their last two games, but now they’ve got a lot of guys that are sitting out. Maryland has got the wide receiver, Jarrett, Copeland and Demus all opting out for this game. The quarterback, Banks, has opted out as well. Taulia Tagovailoa, the quarterback, banged up. He did play the finale against Rutgers and looked really, really good in that one.

You start looking at full season numbers, et cetera, Maryland number 35 in net points per drive, NC State number 56 on the season, but Dave Doeren, five and two against the spread in bowls. It’s tough to figure out exactly what you’re going to get from either one of these teams because of players opting out. Coach has gone, NC State’s offensive coordinator, Tim Beck is now the head coach at Coastal, so he is not there. Roper is going to be the interim and he’s been all over the place, most notably with Will Muschamp at a lot of places. So this is a strange one to try and handicap. I’m curious what your numbers say about this and what you think about this game, Parker?

Parker Fleming:

Well my numbers certainly favor Maryland. They like the offense overall this season relative to NC State’s defense, which was excellent last year, but just okay this year. It was just better than average, 35th in EPA per play on the season, whereas Maryland’s offense 49th and their defense with a pulse. Specifically Maryland’s defense 10th in EPA per pass allowed and only 58th in EPA per rush. So a little bit of a split there that makes us think there’s some selection issues, but not a stark one as we’ve seen. I think if you held the other side constant and just tried to talk yourself into either of these teams, I think both of them have an argument, which is why I don’t have a play. I would have Maryland covering, but again, I just don’t trust them. I don’t know how healthy Tagovailoa is going to be.

And then you look at Ben Finley for NC State who’s not been great in just a very limited time overall, 6.3 yards per attempt with his longest pass was just 52 yard passing play. They really haven’t been able to generate a ton of explosives with him. That offense is 92nd EPA per pass on the season overall and they don’t finish drys particularly well, which I think is worrisome. They’re 3.52 in points per quality possession compared to Maryland’s defense holding opponents to 3.38, which is 50th in the nation. So, kind of a mismatch there. The uncertainty with personnel and opt-outs, and just who’s going to be healthy here. I don’t know how functional either of these offenses are going to be with the NC State turnover, with the fact that kind of without Devin Leary at times they’ve looked Iowa-esque on offense and with Maryland having so many of their weapons opting out, I’m just not sure what kind of offensive performance we’re going to get out of either team in this game.

Gary Segars:

You know that I like to look at the numbers that are trending from week eight on through the rest of the season once we get to bowl season, because the last month plus of the year really kind of gives you a better definition of what these teams are. And the thing that terrifies me about this for Maryland, which by the way, Maryland opened as a one and a half point favorite and this has gone through zero and has gone out on the other side. Kyle, I want to bring you in on this note. NC State is number eight in defensive success rate since week eight of the season. Maryland’s offense is number 109. The efficiency is not great for Maryland. The one thing that they are really good at, it would seem at least late in the season, has been running the football. Maryland number 51 PPA per rush in that time span, but NC State is number three PPA per rush on defense in that span.

Parker was talking about this NC State offense and we’re not sure what exactly to expect from them. The quarterback Finley is likely to start, but their center, Gibson, is out here. This is a difficult one to handicap. How do you even go about this, Kyle?

Kyle Hunter:

I mean the NC State offense hasn’t been very good all year and then without Devin Leary, they’ve really been bad. You go back, NC State just put up 30 points against North Carolina, but that isn’t really that impressive. And then they had 24 in regulation, just 5.0 yards per play. You go back and look, they haven’t had better than 5.0 yards per play since their win over Yukon in September. I mean just crazy.

In ACC play, NC State was dead last averaging 4.43 yards per play. They had only eight plays of 30 yards or more, so not an explosive offense at all. And really, I mean the ACC isn’t exactly loaded with great defenses either, so I think that’s a pretty big indictment of the NC State offense. So Maryland’s offense at full strength, I do think they’re good. They’re not even close to full strength in this one.

Demus, Jarrett, Copeland, those guys combined for 87 catches this year. So really, really big losses there for Maryland. And for the season, Maryland’s just 85th in rushing success rate allowed. I don’t think they can run it on a NC State defense is very good against the run. Maryland allowed 79 tackles for a loss this year, so I think they’ll get behind the sticks a decent amount here with NC State defense is usually pretty good at that as well. So Maryland 15th at preventing explosive plays on defense. NC State’s one defensive weakness is giving up some big plays, but does Maryland really have the players left to expose them by getting those big plays? I’m not really sure that’s the case. So I’m going to take Maryland and NC State to go under the total here of 46.

Gary Segars:

That does make a lot of sense. Absolutely a lot of sense. Let’s make an official, Kyle riding with the under 46 on Maryland and NC State. That’s going to move us right along to the Sun Bowl. We are headed to El Paso, Texas and Pitt is taking on UCLA, the Bruin’s a six point favorite. Minus 105 the odds on the Bruin side, the total sits at 53 and a half over at BetUS. And guys, this one a 2:00 PM Eastern Time game on CBS. Pitt has just got a ton of opt-outs here.

Kyle, I’m going to start with you at the running back of Abanikanda, the offensive tackles Houy and Warren, the defensive tackle Kancey, the linebacker, Dennis, the defensive end, Alexander the safety, Hill, as well and of course the quarterback, Kedon Slovis, is in the portal. He’s already announced he’s going to BYU, he’s not going to be playing in this one.

So we’re not sure exactly which quarterback is going to play at this point. This Pitt offense, since week eight, is number 95 PPA per drive. That is just not great at all, but UCLA’s defense is number 128 in that same time span. If you don’t have a good offense, I don’t know how you’re going to take advantage of a bad defense. So Kyle, looking at this and the fact that UCLA has got a lot of their star players that are going to play, how would you break this one down?

Kyle Hunter:

I think this is a bit of a weird game. Slovis down to Nick Patti’s a pretty big downgrade for sure. Looks like a third or fourth stringer at right tackle for Pitt to the offensive line has not been great to start with and I think it’ll be a big weakness. Pitt wants to run, but can they really run with the guys that they have right now? I think that’s a good question. The Pitt defense is without all sorts of top talent here, so I question whether they’re strong season to date numbers really mean that much in a game like this based on who’s going to be out there. I think this line seems short to me. I’m a bit hesitant because it’s assumed DTR will play here. Some people think Charbonnet won’t play, so we’ll see as it gets closer. I think if UCLA, all the guys are playing, six seems really short, that seems like a very short number.

So, it almost seems like the betting marketplace is assuming someone will sit out. UCLA’s 15th in net yards per play margin this year. The Bruins were first in offensive success rate. Some wind in the forecast here with some gusts of 25 or 30 miles per hour possible. Typically, I would say a guy like Narduzzi would like something like that, some messy ugly game in the wind, but I mean their talent in the trenches is really substantially hit here in this game. It’s not that good. I think UCLA should be able to run the ball pretty well in a game like this. So I don’t know that the wind really helps Pitt in this situation. It’s a pretty strong lean to UCLA for me. I’m just a little bit worried that we’re still a little ways away from this game and there could be some other news still to break, but I like the Bruins here.

Gary Segars:

Yeah, I tend to agree with you. I’m telling you, if these two teams were at full strength, I would’ve loved to have seen the matchup. You’re talking about since week eight, the number one standard down PPA offense against the number one defense in that spot with Pitt and UCLA.

The question here, as you mentioned Kyle, is whether or not Pitt’s defense can slow down UCLA’s running game even without their defensive tackle, defensive end, linebacker et cetera. They’ve just got a lot of guys that are sitting out but Narduzzi does tend to reload here. Look, I’ve seen this before. I’ve seen an LA team going out to El Paso before, it’s a big difference, right? How motivated is UCLA really for this game? But I think they could really be. Right? Parker, UCLA didn’t get to play in their bowl game last year, and before that it was 2017 was the last year that they made a bowl game. They might want to come out and actually get a big win here. If I’m not mistaken, they’re going for their 10th win or 11th win, whichever one it is. I didn’t put the records down. But regardless, you’re looking for a big time, big time record here. I think that the motivation certainly seems to lie on UCLA’s side at this point, right Parker?

Parker Fleming:

Absolutely. And that would be consistent with the narrative behind why Charbonnet and Dorian Thompson Robinson are both practicing and presumably playing. Certainly want to make sure that you’re all doing your information and hedging if those guys don’t play, for example, because a lot can change.

But yeah, this line seems a little bit short to me. I was thinking about the Narduzzi matchup, I was thinking about the wind as well that Kyle brought up. And Dorian Thompson Robinson has the sixth shortest average depth of target in college football. 6.8 yards per pass is how far he’s throwing the ball down field. UCLA is just brutal with their horizontal games, spreading you out. They’ll move guys around, they’ll run short passes, they really are unafraid to just consistently put their guys in position to make moves and march down the field. This offense this season finished third in EPA per play, second in rushing, and sixth in passing, and I really just like their versatility. And they are running well despite running a little bit more than average, 77th in rush rate over expected 0.8% more than the average team.

Pitt on the other hand, I mean just a complete offensive willful and intentional offensive shutdown from Pitt this season. Decided to run the ball as opposed to stick with what worked last season. 99th in rush rate over expected. Their offense is 79th in EPA per play, 85th in the pass, 71st in the rush. So UCLA’s defense I’m not very excited about, but if Pitt knows what’s coming, or sorry, if UCLA knows what’s coming, Pitt has a backup quarterback in, whoever that might be between those two. I think that really helps UCLA’s defense kind of smooth out and say, hey we are deficient in the pass at times this season, but we can shore up the run defense against the team that’s going to run lot and our offense is good enough to outpace our defense. I think that this is a going away UCLA win. So with DTR and with Charbonnet playing, with the motivation factor, Gary, and just how UCLA’s offense works with so many passes that are effectively runs, just very diverse here. I’m going to take UCLA to cover.

Gary Segars:

I like it. It opened at four and it’s all the way out to six, so there’s certainly a lot of people that agree with Parker here. We’ll make it official. Parker, UCLA minus six is the way he’s going. He is going to back the Bruins on that one and I can’t disagree at this point based on everything that we’ve seen about Pitt, et cetera, right now.

We will move along. We are headed to the Gator Bowl in Jacksonville, Florida. It’s at TIAA Bank Field, this one of course Friday, December 30th as well, 3:30 PM Eastern time on ESPN. Notre Dame, a two point favorite over the South Carolina Gamecocks. And I’ve got to tell you, South Carolina big, big wins to end the season of course over Tennessee and Clemson, however, when you look at what has happened since. Let’s talk about some of these opt-outs.

Kyle, I’m going to start with you on this one. The quarterbacks Smith and Rush, the defensive back, Reed, the defensive tackle Pickens, who is their best defensive lineman. The offensive lineman, Wonnum, the running back MarShawn Lloyd, the tight ends Bell and Stogner, the wide receiver, Josh Vann, is injured so he can’t play, and then of course you lost the offensive coordinator, Marcus Satterfield to Nebraska. So who is actually left on the South Carolina sideline?

I don’t think motivation is going to be an issue for South Carolina, but other than those last two games that we saw, this team, they had up weeks and down weeks, they were very inconsistent. When you lose that much talent, I’m very curious what this team is going to be. Kyle, looking at South Carolina, what they’ve done in bowl games, et cetera, they’re always motivated for it. I just don’t know if they’ve got the horses here against Notre Dame. What do you see in this ball game?

Kyle Hunter:

78% of the money here on South Carolina. So somebody’s bet south Carolina a lot in this game. Kind of surprises me to be honest. Obviously Mayer’s a big loss for Notre Dame. Matchup nightmare for the opposition. Drew Pine transferring, but Drew Pine was really kind of a game manager. Buckner’s been practicing, so we assume he’d at least play some in this game. I would look for Notre Dame to run the football a ton in this game. I don’t know why they wouldn’t. South Carolina 120 eighth in rushing play success rate allowed and while South Carolina hasn’t given up a lot of big plays, if you’re Notre Dame, I think you’re fine with running for five yards of carry, just slowly, methodically, move the ball down the field. I kind of like the under based on how I think the game script might go here. Now, South Carolina has scored a lot of points recently and given up quite a few, so I realized under is not really an easy bet to make.

But on the other side, I think the one thing that you could say for South Carolina, obviously they’re a lead on special teams. That they can win games in random ways because of those special teams play. If Notre Dame holds their own there on special teams, I think they’re in pretty good shape. But Notre Dame was running the football well even in the last few weeks before they played a week rushing defense like South Carolina. So I think they’re going to be extremely run heavy in a game like this. South Carolina, 94th in tempo and Notre Dame 115th, so I think Notre Dame’s going to gradually move the ball up the field. I don’t really know that South Carolina can score that many points. I mean both the tight ends are big losses. Marcus Satterfield, like you said, the offensive coordinator, gone. And Rattler, I mean a lot of pressure on him in this game. He’s been very inconsistent in his career. I don’t know which Spencer Rattler will get here in this one. I definitely like Notre Dame as a lean for me and I lean to the under as well.

Gary Segars:

Yeah, Rattler, that is putting it very mildly with the inconsistency there. Their offense is number 19 PPA per pass since week eight. But Notre Dame’s defense in that same time span is number five in PPA per pass allowed. The Notre Dame defense, their weakness since week eight has been they allow number 129 rushing explosiveness. South Carolina’s offense is number 44 in that spot, but without MarShawn Lloyd, without Bell, who actually played some running back this year, that’s going to be tricky to see exactly what this team looks like.

Parker, we’ll move over to you. This Notre Dame offense, since week eight number 30 PPA per rush. The South Carolina defense is number 126 and if you just want to move over to success rate, Notre Dame rushing success is number 12 in the country. That South Carolina defense, again, number 126 in rushing success allowed. Notre Dame should be able to just push them around at the offensive line or at the line of scrimmage even without the tight end Mayer. I think this team is going to be fired up to get Marcus Freeman a bowl win here. A lot of motivation on both sides. I feel like Notre Dame has more talent in this spot. Talk me out of it or talk me into it even more. Dig me into this hole, Parker, what do we got?

Parker Fleming:

It’s certainly talent advantage to Notre Dame here and perhaps motivation advantage as well. I think that we’ve seen that South Carolina has played their bowl games this season. In the Clemson and the Tennessee games where they were able to play spoiler for both of those teams. And even you think last year, Beamer needed a signature win and that was UNC in that bowl game spot where there was a motivation gap as well. So I’m not sure that I trust too much of South Carolina heading into this game specifically because their offense and defense were just very bad and they just got some very good breaks at convenient timing and you can argue that’s Beamer ball and that’s how it works. But there’s a lot of variance and when those moments of variants didn’t go in their favor, they struggled mightily in games against Vanderbilt and Florida-

Gary Segars:

Missouri.

Parker Fleming:

… and Missouri was the other win that was bad. Really, really gross.

And that Tennessee game good for Spencer Rattler, that’s a great performance. Tennessee’s past defense is atrocious and we’ve known that and we’ve seen that this season. There were teams that just couldn’t take advantage of it and Rattler found the key, so good for him, but he’s had four games graded over 80 according to PFF, and again, grades are what they are. But South Carolina State, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt, and then the Tennessee game, in some of their biggest wins in that Clemson game, he had a 48.4 grade completed only 62% of his passes, and had three turnover worthy plays. He’s very erratic and this team really wins when chaos goes in their favor. I don’t know that they’re going to have enough depth or upside with the opt-outs and the change in offensive coordinator to create this, have this chaos go in their favor and make a difference in this game.

Notre Dame has been very consistent at preventing big scoring, or excuse me, preventing scoring opportunities, 13th in quality possession rate allowing 40.9%. South Carolina is generating 47.2% quality possessions, that’s 90th in the nation. So just right there, South Carolina’s not going to get a lot of opportunities to score.

Now with Mayer and with Pine being out on Notre Dame, if this line was six and a half, if this line was five and a half, I’d start being worried about, oh, is Notre Dame going to be able to score enough physically to get past this? But you look at Notre Dame’s run for 220 or more, the four of the last six games, they’ve really figured out that run game after starting pretty slow and having a bad rushing game last year. They’re a hundred 12th and rush rate over expected. I think they will just line up and just methodically march the ball down the field. Getting this inside a field goal makes me feel great, and so I’m going to ride with the Irish here against the South Carolina team that just doesn’t have any left in the chamber. They’ve shot everything they have.

Gary Segars:

That’s exactly the way that I feel on this. I’m going to ride with Notre Dame as well. It just feels like this team is going to be a little more fired up, even without the defensive end, even without the tight end. I think that this team is ready to win this kind of a ball game and they’ve got matchup advantages and that’s the biggest thing here. I did see Julius jumped in, he said South Carolina wins this 31 to 7. Rantz jumped in, said Pine wasn’t anything special and let’s see, Matthew Farmer asked to who exactly is going to play quarterback for Notre Dame?

I think based on these match ups, it doesn’t really matter. The season starter was Tyler Buckner. He has been injured but he has now been practicing for the last two weeks and it looks like he’s going to try and go as Kyle mentioned here. I think Notre Dame is ready for this one and Julia said Notre Dame’s not going to score much. They may not have to. They may not have to. Remember this South Carolina team only put 10 points on the board against Missouri, so 13 to 10 would get you a cover here.

Hey Kyle, let me go back to you on this. That 51 and a half, we talked about that under and you were talking about the total, but man, 51 and a half feels like just a ton. I know 52 is a key number, 51 and a half, is that too crazy? Would the under really be the play here?

Kyle Hunter:

Yeah, I mean I definitely like the under thinking of the game state. I think Notre Dame’s going to have the ball for a long time. Time of possession doesn’t necessarily matter for who covers the spread, but it could matter quite a bit if Notre Dame’s playing as slow as they usually do and running the football consistently. So yeah, this is one that I’m going to consider betting the under. I wonder if this bumps up to 52 and 52 is a key number for sure. So I’m going to wait this one out and see what happens, but I think Notre Dame kind of correlates with an under as well.

Gary Segars:

Yeah, this one opened at Notre Dame, five and a half in a total of 53, so it’s down pretty significantly. A lot of backers of South Carolina, but man, I’m riding with Notre Dame. I think the matchup definitely goes that direction. If this thing bumps up to 52, I might put a little pizza money on it and we’re not talking Little Caesars Pizza, we’re talking like some decent pizza money. We’ve had people in the chat asking about that. Yeah, when we talk pizza money, we’re talking like decent delivery, like good delivery pizza, right? We’re we’re not talking the super expensive kind, but regardless.

All right, let me go on and remind every… Oh, we’re going to make it official, by the way, Parker and I both like Notre Dame to cover the two points here. So give us the fighting Irish on this one.

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All right, moving to the Arizona Bowl and this is the bar stool sports bowl. It’s at 4:30 PM Eastern time. You can only watch it on, I believe it’s Barstool.tv or something along those lines. They are doing their own thing. This one is in Tucson, Arizona at Arizona Stadium. And Ohio is favored by one. The odds of course minus 105 on the Bobcat side over Wyoming. And the total sits at 42 on this, so not a ton of points. It opened at 43 and a half is down to 42. You look at what Ohio did at the end of the season, eight and one against the spread down the stretch. But the one game that they did not cover that they did not win, was the Indie Mac Championship game. Did not look great in that spot, and part of that had to do with the fact that CJ Harris is the starting quarterback now because Curtis Rourke is out for the remainder of the season, which in of course includes this game.

Ohio did not have a lot of luck rushing against Toledo. Parker, I’m going to start with you on this, but this Wyoming defense is number 103 PPA per rush since week eight. They’re number 126 in offensive line yards allowed. When you look at Wyoming’s opt-outs on their side, they are down their top four running backs, like none of those guys will play. So they don’t even have a running back on the roster that actually attempted a run this year and that’s due to injuries and opt-outs. The wide receiver, Josh Cobbs, is their leading receiver. He is opted out of this one. Their defensive end, Omotosho, the cornerbacks, Glinton and Stone. I mean the Cowboys, they ran the ball 64% of the time since week eight. They were number nine in PPA per rush. Number 123 in PPA per pass. Now Peasley is still going to be there, but when you’re down in your top four running backs and that is the one thing that you do, this is kind of a tough spot to be in with that Wyoming offense. Parker, how do you see this game going?

Parker Fleming:

I’m just rooting for Wyoming to use a defensive tackle to score a goal line touchdown, not as a blocking capacity. I want him to get the ball. We’ll definitely see what they can kind of conjure up here. Wyoming to start the season, wasn’t even rocking like a too deep of FBS players and they got some guys healthy and were they able to string together some spot victories, but overall this roster is not very good and the opt-outs definitely bring that down. This offense can’t pass to save its life. 127th at EPA per pass, 116th in passing success rate. So, if Ohio can load the box and say, Hey man, we’d rather tackle your backup running backs or have Andrew Peasley try and beat us. I mean that’s a really good spot for Ohio here.

I know that the conventional wisdom has always faded the Mac in these bowl games, but Ohio this season has been very good on offense. Granted, that’s with Rourke, and so that that’ll be different as far as their ceiling, but their defense hasn’t been as bad as you might expect. 68 in EPA per play, but much better against the rush than the pass, and so we’ll see. Normally we’d be worried about selection issues, 32nd in the rush, 93rd in the pass, but with Wyoming being so one-dimensional, they might just be able to neglect the pass entirely and shore up their run defense here and really stall Wyoming. So, I’m not sure that Wyoming can score at all any way, shape or form. And then you start talking about, well Ohio doesn’t have Rourke and the talent level of a Mac team versus a Mountain West team might be a little bit concerning here, but I think you’re spot on, Gary, with Wyoming wants to run the ball and Ohio’s good at stopping it and Wyoming probably is going to have a lot of trouble running the ball with the depleted backfield that they have.

Gary Segars:

That’s really the way that I’m looking at this. Kyle, I want to move it over to you on this. You know the intangibles that I like to look at, I like to look at penalties per game, Ohio’s number 16, Wyoming number 11, so neither team really beats themselves in that regard. You look at net points per drive, Ohio on the season number 39. Now obviously that’s Rorick as Parker mentioned. Wyoming though, number 88.

I’m curious what the Wyoming game plan is going to be, but one thing that really, really I need to focus on that I always focus on with this, is turnover margin. What is the variance going to be? Ohio is number four in the country in turnover margin. Wyoming is number 94. I can count on Ohio to not turn the ball over, to not beat themselves here, especially with a low number of penalties per game. Kyle, I don’t know that I can do that with Wyoming, especially when they’ve got new guys that are going to be coming in at a lot of positions here and they’re going to be counting on them in whatever the game plan might be. I’d really like Ohio here, but I’m curious the way that you might be leaning in this one.

Kyle Hunter:

So if you were going to take a devil’s advocate, you’d say Craig Bowl is pretty tough to go against in bowl games. I know there’s a joke there, but he’s 11 and three against Fred in the postseasons in general. In line game stating back to North Dakota State and then four and 0 at Wyoming. So I don’t really want to bet against Craig Bowl in a bowl game. I think he’s done a really good job, honestly I think he’s an excellent coach in general. Wyoming is probably going to run the football a lot again. I mean I don’t think they would really want to trust Andrew Peasley a lot in the passing game. He doesn’t have a passing touchdown since October 8th, which is pretty crazy. They really aren’t built to throw it around and now you have nobody on the roster with a rushing attempt. Crazy spot for them.

I mean in general, if you just told me before bowl season, what would you think? I would’ve probably been thinking I would take Wyoming in this game, but things change a lot. Titus Swen’s a good running back and him missing is a pretty big loss. Ohio with a huge step down from Rourke to Harris, certainly, even against Bowling Green, Ohio just had 5.1 yards per play. Harris was 10 for 21 passing and then against Toledo, Ohio just had 262 yards of offense. I don’t think Wyoming really has any identity on offense going into this game. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if Wyoming puts up a really small number of points, like Parker said. I think this sets up to be a really ugly game. Without Rourke, I don’t think Ohio’s an explosive team. I think they’ll slow the tempo down quite a bit. Wyoming’s offense is really never explosive and without Swen I think it’s not explosive at all. I like the under in this game.

Gary Segars:

I could certainly understand that. And that under of course, I think it kind of correlates with what I’m expecting here with Ohio to cover the one here. This game opened Ohio as a three point favorite with a total of 43 and a half. Well it’s gone down on both counts here. I like Ohio, we’re going to make it official. I will take the Bobcats minus one and Kyle of course going to take the under 42 here. I don’t expect a lot of points, I will certainly say that, but I do think Ohio is really, really well coached along with Wyoming. I just think Ohio’s got more weapons right now. We’ll say that.

All right, let’s move along and we are headed to our first New Year’s six game that we will be discussing and that is the Orange Bowl, Tennessee and Clemson. Clemson a five point favorite total of 63 and a half over at BetUS. It’s at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens here. It’s 8:00 PM Eastern time on ESPN of course on Friday December 30th.

Tennessee, 0 and two against the spread, one and one straight up in their last two bowl games, but they have not made a whole lot of them here recently. Clemson four and two against the spread and straight up in their last six bowl games. So Dabo’s bunch, they do get fired up for these things regardless of what happens.

Kyle, I want to start with you here. The Tennessee opt-outs, the wide receivers, Tillman and Hyatt, the offensive coordinator, Golesch, now the head coach at USF. I don’t think that necessarily matters because I believe that Heupel is the guy, he is the offense there. The linebacker, Jeremy Banks, I didn’t put that down, but he just announced yesterday he is opting out for this one. You look at what Joe Milton did and if you just scroll by and look at the numbers and see exactly what they did against Vanderbilt, you might think that Joe Milton had a huge day and oh it’s going to be fine, this offense will be great, whatever.

Joe Milton against Vanderbilt was 11 of 21 for 147 yards and only one touchdown. They went insane running the football against Vanderbilt. Tennessee has been able to run all year. Will they be able to do that against Clemson here? The balls against Vanderbilt averaged 11.7 yards per rush on 31 carries. It was insane. Kyle, I’m curious what you think here. Clemson does have some opt-outs, the defensive end Murphy, the linebacker, Simpson and Bentley, et cetera, but I don’t know that Tennessee is going to be able to have that kind of success against this Clemson team. They’re going to have to rely on Milton a little bit, wouldn’t you think?

Kyle Hunter:

Yeah, mean it’s an interesting game where you set up Tennessee’s been the better team throughout the course of the season getting points certainly, but things are a lot different than they were with Hendon Hooker and those wide receivers and I don’t really think Clemson is that good, but I don’t know how you could bet Tennessee in a game like this. I guess I say I think Clemson has probably been a bit overvalued throughout the course of the season.

Now let’s see, Cade Klubnik gets his turn, so let’s see how he does in his spot. He’ll look good against North Carolina. Everybody looked good against North Carolina, so I want to see how he looks against somebody else. And that’s not me saying it, I think he’s a bad quarterback. I think he has a very high upside, it’s just, this’ll be a better test for him, certainly. I think it’d be nice to see Clemson kind of open it up here for him and see what they actually have instead of playing buttoned up offense here.

Tennessee’s offensive line has been a big weakness throughout the course of the season. 91st in pass blocking grade at PFF. Clemson sixth in pass rush, 40 sacks this year. I think they’re going to get a lot of pressure on Milton here. And really Milton’s one of those guys that he has the big arm, he has the tools, he has questionable decision making. He does some things that can be pretty frustrating. I know Tennessee fans get pretty nervous when he’s out there.

This is one where it’s tough for me to make a bet on this game. I think this is a tough game to handicap. I do think both teams will be motivated for this game. It’s a pretty big game. Both teams would care to try to win. I think I lean to the under, but I really don’t want to sit and watch a Tennessee-Clemson game and be rooting under with the tempo that I think this game will be played at. So, just to lean to the under for me. As far as a side, I hate to lay this many points with Clemson because I don’t really trust them that much. At the same time, Tennessee with Milton is a huge difference.

Gary Segars:

Yeah, I tend to agree on that. Cade Klubnik, of course as Kyle mentioned, is going to be the starter. DJU has committed or has transferred to Oregon State, so he will not be playing in this one. The wide receiver, Beaux Collins, is injured. It looks like he’s not going to play in this one.

You look at what Clemson did against North Carolina and yeah, Klubnik was really, really good, but they ran the ball 21 times for only 68 yards. They did score three touchdowns against North Carolina and this Tennessee defense is incredibly susceptible against the pass as we saw Spencer Rattler just ate them up in that ballgame. So Klubnik should be able to have some open opportunities here.

Parker, I want to toss this over to you. When you look at this Clemson defensive line, their secondary is going to have to play pretty well. I think they’re going to play a lot of man here because they’re going to have to stop the run. At the same time, that UT secondary is going to have to try and help out the defensive line against Klubnik because Klubnik is just as likely to take off and run as well. I don’t know which way to go on this. If I had to lean away, I’d probably go Clemson here because of the quarterback dropoff for Tennessee. But it’s not like they’re not going to take some chances down the field, right?

Parker Fleming:

I mean Joe Milton has an arm, man. It’s not as accurate as Hendon Hooker’s, but I saw a video of him throwing the orange, man. I know an orange is not a football and have said that before and I’ll say that again, but still he’s got very raw arm talent. I’m confident Josh Heupel can scheme him open enough to just put the ball in the right place and play for pass interference. Tennessee was one of the teams that had the most penalty drives, touchdowns on drives that had a penalty. They really play for pass interference with that man coverage and saying you either have to give up the touchdown or commit interference. If Milton could just get the ball in the neighborhood, I think they could really press this Clemson team overall.

On the other hand, I think we’re talking about a Cade Klubnik redemption game. It’s his team now, despite the fact that Dabo said it was DJ’s team all season and kept taking DJ out. He’s got the reins now. Hasn’t been good, very limited, and any success he has had been like the Syracuse game. His best play was getting hit out of bounds and extending a drive so that they get a field goal and kind of orchestrated to come back there. And against UNC, again, not super impressive performance against the defense that has been very, very liable to give up points to subpar units. So I wonder what they’ll do with the bowl practices. I think those are super valuable for Clemson, knowing that he’s going to be the starter going in next season. We’re presuming that he’s going to be the starter going in next season.

When I compare these two teams, the one thing that stands out is we’re best on best here with offenses. Tennessee’s offense is seventh Clemson’s offense is 11th. But on the other side of the ball, I’m interested to see what they can do. Clemson on the ground, Tennessee’s been so bad against the pass, 117th in EPA per play, but they’re sixth against the rush. Of course there’s some selection issues. Can they get that run game going? It’ll be interesting to see what Klubnik can do with a couple weeks of practice and knowing that he is the guy. Obviously you’ve got a factor in the talent advantage that Clemson has as well with some time here.

Gary Segars:

Yeah, I think that’s the biggest thing is Clemson now with Cade being the guy of what is this team going to look like? So no official play on this one. There’s just too many questions, too much variance with this one. But yeah, I mean maybe a slight lean to Clemson, at least for me. This is a weird one. Total of 63 and a half. I like Kyle’s idea of maybe an under, but you don’t want to root for no points here. So yeah, this will be a fun one to watch. I guess another data point to see exactly what we’ve got between these two teams.

Now let me go ahead ever mind everybody, like the video for us. I see quite a few people watching now and we appreciate you guys jumping in. Of course, the week after Christmas, that helps us out tremendously. Watching the video and liking the video. That would help us out quite a bit as well. Subscribe if you’ve not already done that. And make sure you jump in the chat for the Q&A portion of the show at the end here. If you have any questions, et cetera, make sure and toss those in there. Don’t forget about tomorrow’s show as well. We are going to have a lot more games to discuss tomorrow. Going to wrap it up with the end of bowl season coming soon. So go ahead and make sure that you jump in tomorrow.

Now with that said, we’re moving to the Music City Bowl. We are going to move to Nashville, Tennessee at Nissan Stadium and I believe it’s going to be a little bit warmer by New Year’s Eve, but this will be a 12:00 PM Eastern Time game on ABC and Iowa is now a two point favorite over Kentucky. The total is sitting at 31. It opened at 31 and a half, it’s come down by half point. Kentucky opened as a three point favorite and this thing has moved five points over to where Iowa is now the favorite here. Of course, the latest numbers at BetUS.

Guys, Parker, I’m going to start with you on this. Kentucky beat Iowa in a bowl game last year, 20 to 17, but at that point they had Will Levis and they had Wan’Dale Robinson, et cetera. They had a different offensive coordinator. They had all these kind of things. This year they have fired the offensive coordinator, Rich Scangarello. They’ve got Will Levis opting out of this game, they’ve got the running back, Chris Rodriguez, opted out. The cornerback, excuse me, Valentine, Cavasias Smoke has opted out. The wide receiver Magwood is in the portal. This is a problem.

I mean, Kentucky, the offense wasn’t great anyway, but when you take away the best pieces of it, it really becomes an issue. Iowa does have some opt-outs, they’re down to their third string quarterback as well. But other than Sam Laporta, a lot of dudes are just not going to play here. The wide receivers, Bruce and Johnson, the quarterbacks, Padilla and Petris are both going to be out for this one. And this is a difficult, difficult game to handicap other than the fact that you’re not going to expect a lot of points. But do you really take an under at 31? I mean, how do you see this breaking down, Parker?

Parker Fleming:

This is not only going to be a tough game to handicap, this is going to be a tough game to watch, frankly. Two defenses in the top 25 of the nation, 24th for Kentucky, ninth for Iowa, but two offenses that are just not very good. And while Kentucky certainly had higher upside than Iowa without Rodriguez and without Levis, man, there’s just not a lot of hope here for a prolific game. I think this is the game where I’m just rooting for five to two. Just give me something weird. Let’s try and top what Iowa did earlier in the season. But overall, I mean you look at the last couple of games, they’re Kentucky lost to Vanderbilt. I don’t know that that needs further elaboration as to what the depths of this team can be. But the flip side of this is, Iowa doesn’t have anything going on offense and they have Petris out. I just really am not optimistic about what they’re going to be able to do here.

I think we’re looking at multiple field goals. Both teams are allowing under 20 points a game, but Iowa’s averaging 17.4 compared to Kentucky’s 22.1. Man, again, without Kentucky’s stars, I think the dropoff is probably a lot larger just because they did have an offensive ceiling that Iowa didn’t have. So relative by magnitude, the dropoff is a little bit bigger there, but I’m certainly not going to put any money on this game aside from a pizza money on an under just because they just can’t score. Neither team could score here.

Gary Segars:

No, I think you’re a hundred percent right. Kyle, we’ll move over to you. The Kentucky quarterback is named Dustin Wade and the Iowa quarterback is Joe Labis. Two guys that I don’t remember even watching at any point to here. Iowa defense, as Parker was talking about, I think they’re the best unit on the field. They’re number three in PPA per drive defense since week eight. But again, they got guys that are out, the safety, Merriweather’s going to be out here. They’ve got some other guys that may end up opting out of this game. This is a difficult one. Kyle, the number 31 here as far as a total, can you play that? Can you play an under at 31? How do you feel about this one?

Kyle Hunter:

So I mean this number’s lower than Army-Navy total, which is just wacky. I don’t want to play an over, I mean, who would play over between these two? I mean, good luck to you if you take the over, you don’t want to watch the game if you take an over here either. I think the best unit on the field by a landslide is the Iowa defense. The Iowa defense is really good. They’ve been put in very bad spots this year. I would be really surprised if Kentucky scores many points. I mean, Rodriguez and Smoke gone, a running back, I think one of their other running backs is hurt, so they really are very thin at running back as well. I heard some analysis on this game, which I thought was kind of funny. Both teams without their starting quarterback. I think there’s some context needed for something like that.

I mean, Spencer Petris out and Will Levis out is not exactly the same thing. I’m not really a guy who wipes up Levis compared to some people, but obviously a big difference there between those. And I mean Iowa, you kind of say, well, how much worse could the quarterback play be than what it has been? They’ve really not been good on offense at all. I would lean Iowa if I had to bet a side here in this game. I remember betting the under last year when these two played, but then the total was 43 or 42 and a half or something like that. Now it’s 31. I mean, if this was 43 or 42 and a half, I think all three of us would’ve played the under. I mean, that’s just so much that the defenses should be very good. I’ll be honest, I think if I had to bet something in this game, I would take the Kentucky team total under, which is 14 and a half.

I know that sounds crazy, but I don’t see how Kentucky scores many points on Iowa, barring some fluke defensive touchdown. Now, certainly the reason I’m not betting it is because Iowa has a third string quarterback that can’t be too good or he would’ve been starting earlier on. But if you get some weird things happen there, it can kill your under 14 and a half, but that’s my lean. I think this is a super tough game to make a play in. I mean, how do you bet a lot of money in a game like this? But having said all that, I think my favorite would be some kind of under in this game.

Gary Segars:

I do like that idea. By the way, the Kentucky team total under 14 and a half, so you’re talking, we could do under two touchdowns and I think that’s probably the play here because I expect Iowa to really reel them in. I think a lot of runs regardless of the guys that have opted out, et cetera. I don’t think we’re going to see a ton of passing because these are two head coaches that don’t really like to take a bunch of risks, so I think that’s probably the way to go if you have to go a side, if you’re going pizza money here, Iowa is probably the way to go, but man, I would not put the mortgage on this one. I will tell you that. All right, we’ll move ahead. We’ve got one more game to discuss and then we’ll jump into Q&A and we’ll do our picks recap.

This is the Sugar Bowl in New Orleans, Louisiana of course at the Superdome at 12:00 PM Eastern time on ESPN on New Year’s Eve. Alabama, a six and a half point favorite. The total sits at 56 over at BetUS. Kansas State an underdog here, and this line has gone everywhere on this one. It opened at five and a half. It got all the way down to a field goal and then it was announced that Will Anderson Jr., the defensive end for Alabama, and the quarterback, Bryce Young, are opting in to the game. They are not going to opt out. They are going to play. Now Alabama does have some guys that are out. The wide receivers, Holden and Earl, they have transferred. The offensive lineman, the guard, Javion Cohen, has portaled as well. Alabama’s offense has issues when teams cause havoc.

At Kansas state, however, since week eight, number 114 on defense in havoc rate, definitely not great, but at the same time you look at this team and Chris Kleinman, 12, six and one against the spread in postseason games. Blink Knowles, who went out of the Big 12 title game has said that he’s playing. He was injured in that game, but he has said that he is going to play in this one. Hey Kyle, I’m going to start with you here. This Kansas State offense has been led by the quarterback Will Howard number 10 PPA per pass since week eight, but that is actually Bama’s biggest strength on defense is against the pass. They are number one in PPA per pass allowed since week eight. I don’t know that they’ve really faced a team like Kansas State at this point though. Kyle, how would you break this game down?

Kyle Hunter:

A lot of transfers from Alabama at the end of the year, but I think it’s super impressive that there’s not opt-outs all over the place for Alabama. I mean I’m surprised frankly and I think that’s why there was such a line move toward Kansas State is that everybody assumed there would be. The fact that there hasn’t been is impressive. Kansas State plus 14 in turnover margin this year, Alabama negative four turnover margin, I think that says quite a bit as far as Kansas State has had a lot of success there. Alabama lost a couple of close games because of turnovers and penalties. Penalties, Alabama 70.7 penalty yards per game. Kansas State, just 43 and a half. Kansas State has been the fundamentally sound team. Alabama has such a massive talent advantage though I think it’s hard to go against Alabama in this game. Certainly a fascinating handicap. Saban 1110 against the spread in his last 21 bowl games, as you said, climbing 12, six and one in the postseason against the spread.

I think this is a fantastic coaching matchup. Really looking forward to this game. I think want to fast track in New Orleans. My lean here is the over. Howard has enough mobility to at least make a difference. I think Howard’s been far better than I would’ve expected for Kansas State so that that’s a credit to the offensive coaching staff. And Vaughn, I think Vaughn’s more than capable of having some success against an Alabama run defense, which was a little worse than I expected them to be. 50th in success rate allowed. On the offensive side, I think Alabama will move the ball here. It would surprise me if Kansas State gets in the backfield too much. Like you said, Gary, that’s not been their strength. Kansas State doesn’t have the team speed on defense, I don’t believe, to be able to stop Alabama consistently either. So here on a fast track in New Orleans, my lean is to be over.

Gary Segars:

That does make a lot of sense. That’s one of the notes that I put down is Alabama has the explosivity advantage and I pulled up my notes here and Alabama is number 24 in passing explosiveness since week eight against Kansas State who is number 78. And Alabama is number 69 in rushing explosiveness against Kansas State Defense, which is number 93. So if you’re looking for a big play, it would likely come from Alabama, but there’s also Kansas State, which you would think with Deuce Vaughn that you’d have some bigger plays, but they have not been super explosive as far as the running game. They’re number 84 in rushing explosiveness and then of course number seven in passing explosiveness. So, when they’ve gotten Deuce Vaughn open, they’ve used him in the passing game more.

So Parker, I want to move it over to you. That turnover margin that Kyle was talking about, number four in the country for Kansas State, they do not beat themselves. Alabama, number 94, just a ridiculous number when you look at it. As far as discipline, like at penalties per game at Kansas State, number 36 in the country, Alabama, number 130, like next to dead last on that one. However, even with all of that, since week eight, Alabama is number 12 in PPA margin since week eight and Kansas State is number 29. You know that Kansas State is the more disciplined team, but as far as a talent edge, that certainly, certainly goes towards Alabama. Parker, how would you break this one down?

Parker Fleming:

I’m very interested in one, a couple weeks of health for both Kansas State and Alabama giving us a nice reset and kind of the full weight and attention of both coaching staffs on one opponent. Again, with the regular season you’re doing a lot of scrambling along with injuries to kind of game plan and so you can certainly get a bump here with some time and space to focus on one opponent. It’s great that the opt-outs do seem minimal aside from those transfers and I do think that Kansas state’s defense is going to have a little bit of trouble with Alabama if Felix can’t get the normal pressure that he does.

Now that being said, I think Felix has seen better offensive lines this season and done better against them than what he’ll see against Alabama. Kansas State’s defense, 26th in EPA per pass. What’s not great is they’re 87th in EPA per rush, so certainly a split there that Alabama can take advantage of. And as for their offense, again, very, very explosive but not as successful, especially the run game. They’re 39.0 rushing success rate and they’re rushing a hundred, sorry, they’re rushing 5.4% more than the average team that’s a hundred and second in the nation.

And so what I see here is basically the fundamental question about can you defend Kansas State, is can you tackle Deuce Vaughn in space every time? And in a lot of games, Deuce Vaughn has been tackled in space, eight out of 10 times, but those two times are guaranteed touchdowns and that’s the explosive burst.

What I think Alabama has is the ability to be a little more physical in the run game and sustain that on offense to really open up some play action opportunities for Bryce Young. Of course we know that Bryce Young is probably the best college quarterback in the nation under pressure this season and last season as well, given that he’s faced so much of it and how he’s able to extend plays and if you don’t bring him down, he’s going to make you pay.

It’ll be interesting to see how Kansas State kind of balances that with a relatively weak second half compared to what they have upfront, but a really good matchup.

I have this as Alabama by about seven, both teams, full strength here. Consistency in the past game, staying on schedule is going to be really important for Alabama, they’re 16th in EPA per pass, or sorry, 16th in success rate in passing 23rd in EPA per pass. So if they can use that pass game to stay ahead of schedule, make sure that Kansas State stays honest against the run, I really think they have an opportunity to kind of perform at their best relative to what we’ve seen from them this season, but certainly a really, really tough game here for Alabama against the Kansas State team that is going to be as motivated as anybody after eeking out that winning against TCU and feeling like they can have a really special season here. Being an SEC team in the Sugar Bowl.

Gary Segars:

Not just an SEC team, but Alabama, I mean Kansas State, the big 12 title winners, that’s what this team is and they are looking to go out on a strong note, but who would’ve thought that the Alabama motivation might have been there as well? I don’t think a lot of people really figured that. As Kyle mentioned, this number got down to three, it’s now back up to six and a half and we’ll see what this thing ends up on New Year’s Eve when it actually kicks off. I am very, very curious, but a lot of variants here. The number is really close to what I’ve got it. I am going to stay away from this one currently as are all of us. No official plays on this one, but for me, a lean towards Alabama, I do have them by a little more than a touchdown, but this is going to be a lot of fun. It’s going to be a lot of fun.

All right gentlemen, we are ready to dive into Q&A. And we’ve got some questions here. Jordan Burkey is going to start us off. He said, “When you guys talk about laying pizza money, are you referring to a little Caesar’s hot and ready or a gourmet pizza from your favorite Italian restaurant?” And I think it’s different for everybody, but I did try and answer this in the chat. Kyle, I’m going to go to you first on this. My thought process here is a good Dominoes or Papa John’s or something along those lines that is a nice delivery for the whole family. Not just one pizza, but a nice delivery meal for the family. What do you do when you do pizza money?

Kyle Hunter:

Yeah, I mean I’m definitely not talking about Little Caesars, so I’ll say that. In general, I like pizza, but I’m not a big fan of Little Caesars. I’m talking like multiple pizzas from Pizza Hut or Papa Jones or something like that instead. I mean if I was in Chicago I’d be talking deep dish pizza or something like that, but not from the most expensive joint there is. I think it depends on the person, but pizza money is certainly quite a bit less than the normal official play.

Gary Segars:

Yes, one unit is different than that. Parker, are you about the same as both Kyle and myself?

Parker Fleming:

Yeah. Yeah, I mean I’m the kind of guy who orders too much pizza so I can have a nice cold pizza lunch the next couple of days, so I’m right in line with that. Again, that to me, the line there is not the amount of money, but it’s relative to your bank roll. It’s still worth betting, it’s not like a quarter on a bet or anything, but it’s not something that one, ruins your strategy or your bank roll or two, that makes you super upset if you lose it.

Gary Segars:

Exactly.

Parker Fleming:

Just little stakes.

Gary Segars:

Yes, just a little skin in the game. That’s all we’re talking about. Sean Oakley jumps in, “Great year, guys, I know you covered this already, but any updated thoughts on Coastal and ECU?” He says that he loves the over here. Kyle, you got a feel on the Birmingham Bowl later today?

Kyle Hunter:

Yeah, I mean I think he’s not the only one that loves the over based on the line move. I’m looking here, 66? I believe this one was like 62 when we talked about it or something. 62 and a half. I still like ECU team total over, definitely ECU side as well as the side I would take. As far as that, I can’t argue with an overall over and the number has kind of gotten away.

Gary Segars:

Yeah, you had taken, I’m looking at our notes from last week. You took ECU over 35 and a half for a team total and yeah, it was sitting at 62 and a half for the overall total last week, so yeah, up to 66 now. Lot of love, a lot of love for an over on this one. Parker, how about you? Any feel on the Birmingham Bowl? Anything change for you?

Parker Fleming:

No, I still maintain that I think ECU is going to win. It’s Holton Ahlers championship game here for him, so I think he’ll have a good time. Both of these defenses are sub 100 in efficiency, so that’s a lot of points. I don’t know, but I think both teams will score a lot here.

Gary Segars:

I do as well. Julius Jackson jumped in, he said, “What happened to Bowling Green yesterday?” Exactly what I told you was going to happen last week if you had watched the show. New Mexico State was the better team. They should have been favored the entire time. What are we even talking about? Jerry Kill is a fantastic coach and Scott Loeffler, I just think it was a bit of a coaching mismatch, that’s all it was.

Parker Fleming:

Well, especially with McDonald going out, not to say that game would’ve gone differently, but just like that accentuated the coaching differential because Loeffler was planning on one thing and then mid-game had to entirely change that, perhaps with some anguish. Like you saw McDonald going and talking to his dad on the sideline and you were like, that’s a kid-

Gary Segars:

That was heartbreaking.

Parker Fleming:

…; who clearly needs to not go back in and someone has to have a hard conversation. So Coach is dealing with that and with the game and they just never got it together.

Gary Segars:

Yeah. No, you’re a hundred percent right there. A hundred percent right. Matthew Farmer jumped in, “Is there anything that has surprised you so far in bowl season?” Kyle, I will start with you on this one. Anything that has surprised you and doesn’t necessarily have to be result oriented, but just anything that has happened in any of these games?

Kyle Hunter:

Yeah, there’s been plenty of things happen in bowl season that have been kind of weird. I’m trying to think back because it’s been quite a few games already in bowl season, so dating back, I would say Southern Miss scoring 38 points and Frank Gore having what? 300 and some rushing yards. I mean I know it was Rice defense, but even there, you know if Southern Miss is going to run, they can’t really throw, so that one surprised me. The other one that surprised me a bit I would say is San Jose State playing so poorly again and eastern Michigan winning outright.

Gary Segars:

Yeah, San Diego State, that was pretty nuts. Just everything about that game was a little crazy. Parker, how about you? Anything that has popped up that you might not have expected?

Parker Fleming:

The Air Force game was very fun. I think we all had them to cover and I think rightfully so, and we got kind of the 90th percentile outcome here with Air Force. Just womping Baylor. Baylor’s only two touchdowns were two minute drills, which is huge talent advantage if you can’t score on a two minute drill, you’re a complete disaster. That was it.

I think Austin Reid coming back to Western Kentucky and them just playing a great game against South Alabama was a pleasant surprise. I banked on that I think, and was like, oh, if he plays it’s going to be good, but man, that was just happy to see and good from a college football sense that he felt that was the best decision and then was able to come out there and play really well. So those were two pleasant surprises for me.

Also, I think Yukon played really well in their bowl game for Yukon and that was a surprise as well. I think that the way that team is going, if they could get a dropdown transfer dude at quarterback that could just not do these insane negative plays, they might be competent, which is a crazy thing to say about Yukon, so that was a pleasant surprise for me as well.

Gary Segars:

I had a feeling you were going to bring up Yukon. After the way that thing went, I had a feeling you were going to bring it up. For me, it’s certainly Western Kentucky.

Parker Fleming:

I framed it positively.

Gary Segars:

You certainly did, yes you did. You sure did. No, for me, the Western Kentucky situation, just a beat down of South Alabama. Remember, that’s the South Alabama team that only lost two games this year, both of them by less than a touchdown. They lost by what four points? I guess it was five points combined, one point at UCLA and they lost to Troy by four points. For them to go in and get absolutely steamrolled in that game, was very, very surprising to me.

But to go along with that, at the Houston situation, that went exactly the way that we thought it would, air Force, the same thing. I’m looking at the overall stuff. BYU being able to play against SMU, even with their third string quarterback was a little bit surprising. We felt like BYU might have the line of scrimmage advantage, but that was a crazy one, and then of course Florida just not showing up whatsoever, was slightly surprising to me.

Even with all the opt-outs, et cetera, I thought they would at least put up some kind of a fight and for them to be kicking a field goal at the end of the game just so they don’t get shut out, things are not great in Gainesville. I will say that. The recruiting class might be okay, but whew, that’s rough. That is rough.

All right. Let’s go ahead and head over to our picks recap and we’re going to go ahead and get out of here so you guys can go enjoy the rest of the bowl day as Georgia Southern has now tied it with Buffalo here early in the third quarter. All right, let’s dive into our best bets. Parker, what have you got for us on today’s show?

Parker Fleming:

I’m going to ride with UCLA at full strength minus six against a depleted Pitt, and I’m going to ride with Notre Dame minus two against South Carolina, who’s already played their bowl games.

Gary Segars:

I am going to agree with you on Notre Dame for sure, Notre Dame minus two, and I’m going to take the Ohio Bobcats as a one point favorite over Wyoming. The Mac has actually looked pretty good thus far in bowl season. I will take one of the Mac’s better teams to cover their bowl game. Kyle, what have you got for us?

Kyle Hunter:

I’m going to take Maryland and NC State under 46, and I’m also going to take Ohio and Wyoming under 42.

Gary Segars:

I like it. I like it. You guys are fantastic. All right, reminder again, the guaranteed rate bowl is this evening and we have an odds boost over at BetUS. Wisconsin to score 26 points or more against Oklahoma State. It was plus 100, it is now plus 150, so you can go and take advantage of that over at BetUS. You can click the link in the description to go over there and make sure that you get signed up, et cetera. All that fun stuff. Gentlemen, looking through the notes, reminder to like the video if you have not done so already. Make sure that you are subscribed to the channel. That certainly will help us out. If we can get over 12,000, that is certainly a good thing and make sure that you are subscribed to the podcast as well, on Apple, Spotify, whatever your favorite podcast app is, that is going to help us out.

With that said, after we get done here, go ahead and jump in the comments. We want to know what your picks are, tell us what you guys are picking in these bowl games and maybe you can sway us one direction or another on some of these that we did not have a play on. As we sit here this week going through all these bowl games, we might like to have action on just about everything, so if you can maybe convince us one way or the other, hey, we would love to hear it.

With that said, we are going to get out of here. Thank you again to everybody that jumped in the chat that has been here with us really all season. I’m going to continue to do this over the holiday season, but we are incredibly thankful for you guys being able to spend your time with us, being willing to spend your time with us on these Tuesdays and Wednesdays and throughout the week. You’re really, really kind souls for being here with us and we certainly, certainly appreciate you. With that said, for BetUS america’s favorite sportsbook, where the game begins, God bless college football and we will see you all again tomorrow.