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Speaker 1:

Fleming will break down the games, live every Wednesday and Thursday on our BetUS college football YouTube channel. Subscribe, hit that bell now and never miss a show. BetUS, where the game begins.

Speaker 2:

The college football season has already gotten real. We’ve seen huge upsets. What is week three going to bring? Will other ranked teams be tops? And what awaits the Alabama Crimson Tide as they journeyed to Gainesville to face a tough Florida Gators squad? We’re only a few seconds away to be able to get our questions answered on our live chat. Get your pen and paper, class is in session.

Gary Segars:

Welcome in to the BetUS college football show. It is week three part two. Time for us to discuss the afternoon slate of games and could not be more excited about the slate that we’ve got. We have got some fantastic matchups. I’ll go ahead and let you know that I am the host, Gary Segars. You can follow me on Twitter at GaryWCE. On the right, we have Kyle Hunter, who is our professional award-winning handicapper. You can follow him on Twitter at KyleHunterPicks. Kyle, everything going well for you this morning?

Kyle Hunter:

Doing well. How about yourself, Gary?

Gary Segars:

Oh, I am fantastic. I am fantastic. And on the left, we have our numerical guru, our statistician, our analyst, Parker Fleming. You can follow him on Twitter, @statsowar. Parker, how about you? Are you looking forward to the slate?

Parker Fleming:

I am. I’m doing great. I got some preview graphics finally ironed out and posted on Twitter. I’m excited to have numbers and everything up and running. So I’m feeling good about this weekend, feeling good about some really big games, too.

Gary Segars:

Same here, same here. With that, let’s go ahead and dive into the records, go on and show you what we’re looking like so far this year so that you can trust us. We try and be as transparent as possible. So far on the season. I personally am 9, 5, and 2. So 9 wins, 5 losses, 2 pushes through 16 picks. Kyle through 11 picks his 6 and 5. Parker 23 picks, he is 11, 10, and 2. Overall, 26, 20, and 4. Not too shabby, my friends. Not too shabby at all. Go ahead and tell you, before we kick things off, you need to sign up at BetUS. That’s where the game begins.

Gary Segars:

There is a link in the description to do it. But the promo code, NCAAF2021, you get 125% signup bonus up to $2,500. And that is sportsbook exclusive, all that money to be used on gambling on sports. And personally, I would bet it all on college football. That’s right. Don’t buy that all at one time. We understand that. But I’m just saying, maybe I don’t have the same funds as you do. But take it easy and bet as much and as often as possible over at BetUS where the game begins. Again, the promo code, NCAAF2021. Again, a link in the description. You can click it. It’s going to toss that promo code in there for you. Very easy to do.

Gary Segars:

Now don’t forget, this is a live show. We do this every Wednesday and Thursday, Wednesdays at 5:00 PM Eastern Time, Thursdays at 12:00 PM Eastern Time, the Wednesday slate is the early action. And then the Thursday show, it’s going to be the afternoon and evening games. So try and plan accordingly for which games that you will be the most interested in or just watch both of them. That’s personally what I would do. Subscribe to the channel and make sure and hit that notification bell so that you know when we are going live.

Gary Segars:

Go ahead and knock that thing out and jump into the chat. We have a Q&A at the end of every show. If we don’t hit on a game that you want to know about, toss it in there. We will try our best to hit on it and give you some notes, give you a way that we might be leaning even if we don’t give an official play. So jump into the chat, jump into the comments, we would love to hear from you. Let’s dive into the games. And the first one up here is a monster. Down in Gainesville, Alabama at Florida 3:30 PM Eastern Time kick on CBS, Alabama 8 and 2 straight up 7 and 3 against the spread versus Florida in the last 10.

Gary Segars:

The line sits Bama minus 14 and a half. The total is at 60. Not too shabby. May not be a whole lot of defense played in this game. Florida covered plus 16 last year in the SEC championship game. Alabama, 5 and 4 against the points spreads as a road favorite. Since 2019, 37 and 22 against the spread, that’s about 63% since 2014 as a favorite of 10 or more. Florida, under Dan Mullen, 2 and 0 against the spread as a home dog, they are in that spot again.

Gary Segars:

My question is here because I don’t have a play on this game, I’m going to give it to you guys in a minute. But can Florida throw the ball efficiently enough to actually beat Alabama? AR 15 Anthony Richardson is only 45% accuracy rate, Emory Jones only 55% accuracy rate. Bryce Young’s first career road start, what does that going to mean for him? Grant him defense, they can absolutely test Alabama’s pass protection because they have not looked good in the first couple of games.

Gary Segars:

Everybody’s talking about Will Anderson, the monster all American linebacker from Alabama and whether or not he will play. It is trending in a positive direction. But on the other side, the quarterback of Florida’s defense, Ventrell Miller, it looks like he is going to be out of this game due to an elbow injury in the last game. That seems kind of big, because he is the quarterback of that defense. He does call the plays for them. Not the plays. He calls the schemes out on the field. Let’s start off with you, Parker. Give me your thoughts on Alabama and Florida here.

Parker Fleming:

Yeah. I had that note, too. Was Miami Alabama a neutral site game or was that… That was at Miami, right?

Gary Segars:

It was neutral. It was neutral at Atlanta. Yeah.

Parker Fleming:

Oh, okay, I had that totally backwards. But yeah, so Bryce Young on the road is going to be interesting. You mentioned Florida’s pass rush and I’ve got to tell you, I’m not very worried about it. Bryce Young against Miami who pressured him on 21 dropbacks, he had 73% adjusted completion rate, four touchdowns at 8 out of 14.4. The kid looks like a veteran in the pocket. And so the pass rush here doesn’t scare me because I’m not sure that Florida’s pass rush is necessarily that much better than Miami’s.

Parker Fleming:

And Bryce Young was absolutely able to mitigate that with almost no issues. I have this right out about 14 just on the raw numbers. I’m going to trust Alabama here, specifically looking at what they’ve been able to do with quality possessions and finishing drives. So Florida only had a 38.4 quality possession rate. They really haven’t created a lot of opportunity and a lot of that is tied to the quarterbacks. Never want to gloat or put anyone on blast but you remember there was a certain site that was talking about Emory Jones as a first round draft pick in 2022.

Parker Fleming:

And that’s just a good reminder that the offseason is starved for content and people will say many things to get many clicks. But I think that Florida’s got to figure out the offense and figure out which quarterback they want and who is going to lead them. Tried to do that against Alabama, does not exactly inspire confidence. So, only a 36.4 quality possession right for Florida. So that is a difference that I think is going to determine a lot there.

Parker Fleming:

The other big asymmetry in these two teams given that the quality of competition is different there, but Alabama’s starting field position 27.3 whereas Florida has held opponents to 25.5. So that right there is about a half a point of expected value per drive. But if Florida can push Alabama back and make them say, look, you’re going to have to drive 80, 85 yards every drive, that is going to be their key to stopping this Alabama offense because there’s not really much else you can do.

Gary Segars:

So basically, Florida needs to be efficient on offense, not quick hitters, nothing like that. They need to drive the ball and maybe play a little bit of field position, which I don’t know if that’s something that Dan Mullen is totally used to doing but that would be one way to do it. Kyle, give me your thoughts on this total here. It’s sitting at 60 right now. A lot of people liking the over don’t expect a lot of defense. I don’t know what to expect from this ballgame. Tell me your thoughts.

Kyle Hunter:

Yeah, bummer that this one has moved up so much. But even at 60, I think it’s still a little bit too low. Bama put up 44 points against Miami. And that was at the end of the game they were basically just the foot off the gas. They scored a lot in the first half against Mercer last week, obviously, as they should. Crimson Tide off is loaded once again. And I will say, to me, it seems like Florida’s defense is played really poorly based on who they’ve played so far this year. They rank 84 in PFF defense grade.

Kyle Hunter:

And that’s playing Florida Atlantic in USF. So if you can’t be any better than that on defense against those two teams, I’m really concerned about what kind of number Alabama’s going to put up against you. So, I think Bama is going to score their points here. So the question is how much is Florida going to do offensively. Dan Mullen’s teams have actually scored pretty good on Alabama compared to other teams. And Florida ranks 39th in nation and tempo this year, which I think is surprisingly fast considering how far they’ve been ahead in their two games.

Kyle Hunter:

So they’ve talked about playing fast this year. Mullen’s team has actually done it. We saw the SEC title game be extremely high scoring last year. I think this will be a back and forth game as well. I certainly do think Bama wins this game. Probably would lay the points with Bama if I had to, 14.5. That hook always scares me a bit. But I like the over. I think 60 is still a pretty fair total, a game that I think probably gets into the mid-60s.

Gary Segars:

In week one, I said that I will never bet against Alabama again. And I’m not doing it. I ain’t putting a play on this thing. Dan Mullen did hint at multiple press conferences over the last couple of days that he has kept some things back. And he has some tricks up his sleeve for this ballgame. We are interested to see what it is. So let’s jump into the official plays here, the official picks. And Parker is going to ride Alabama minus 14 and a half and Kyle is going to go over the 60. It’s jumped up a little bit. He still likes it at 60. We are going over there.

Gary Segars:

Next game on the board, Georgia Southern at Arkansas. And what a weapon the Razorbacks put on the Texas Longhorns last week. The line currently sits, Arkansas minus 23 and a half and the total, 52 and a half. So a low total but a big, big spread, Georgia Southern looked awful last week against Florida Atlantic, just awful. However, Georgia Southern, 5, 1, and 1 all time against the odds spread against the SEC since joining the FBS back in 2011. Sam Pittman, 2 and 0 against the spread as a home favorite, Arkansas has not been in this position very often. It’s kind of sandwich spot for the Razorbacks here. They beat Texas, now they have A&M coming up right after this. Parker, give me your thoughts on this. I’ll jump back over to you and then we’ll go to Kyle right after that.

Parker Fleming:

I get this. Intellectually, I get this. The look ahead and they just came off a big game and is Fayetteville going to be rocking like it was for Texas last weekend? That is something that I think is going to be… There’s certainly some intangibles here that could go and could influence this. That’s why I’m not playing it. My numbers do have Arkansas just barely covering because of Georgia Southern has looked really bad and their competition has been really bad. But again, there is that big uncertainty of, hey, it’s pretty easy to get up for a big game, and that happens.

Parker Fleming:

And will they be able to match that same intensity? I don’t think they’ll lose by any stretch of the imagination, but I think that there might be a little bit of falling flat here, a little bit of looking ahead for Texas A&M. That being said, I will talk about KJ Jefferson for Arkansas. I thought he looked pretty, pretty good. Last week, he rushed nine times for 7.3 yards per carry, but 7.5 yards after contact. So he was able to shed tackles. I don’t expect that Georgia Southern is going to have better tackling than Texas did.

Parker Fleming:

And if you look at his passing last week, again, we thought, hey, he’s going to have to get really involved in the rush. He completed 73.7% of his passes and Arkansas was largely able to foresaw any pressure from the Texas defensive front, 25%, only five of his dropbacks were pressured. So I really was surprised by Arkansas’ performance last week. My numbers do have them covering, but I’m not making a play just because, again, college football is a game where 20 something are playing each other and the fans are loud. And environment matters and there absolutely could be a letdown spot here That being said, am I going to bet any money on Georgia Southern covering on the road and SEC school this year in 2021? No, absolutely not. So that’s why staying away from this one.

Gary Segars:

Totally makes sense. And their rushing game has definitely improved. Currently, according to your numbers, EPA per rush, they are number 41 in the country as Arkansas. Georgia Southern number 15 in the country and EPA per rush defense. So what does that mean right now? I don’t know. But it does make sense that a Sam Pittman team would be really good at running the football because he loves having those big Hog Mollies right in the middle of the offense. Kyle, give me your thoughts here on the Razorbacks. Is this the perfect time to sell high and buy low?

Kyle Hunter:

Well, I tell you, my line makes this 24 and a half toward Arkansas. I do agree there’s no way I could bet Arkansas. This is a terrible spot. And I’m pretty sure that’s why a lot of the reason why Gary likes this one is because if you look at the win they had last week, and then not just Texas A&M, after Texas A&M they played at Georgia and at Ole Miss, what a brutal scheduling stretch. I mean, if you were ever going to have one game where you take a game off, this has to be the one. The sandwich spot game here.

Kyle Hunter:

My concern here is Georgia Southern has allowed 7.4 yards per play against Florida Atlantic a bad offense. And Gardner-Webb had 6.6 yards per play. So, this Georgia Southern defense is clearly bad. The question mark is at what point is Arkansas going to take their foot off the gas? I feel like that’s the most important thing at this handicap. I don’t love taking an underdog where I feel like I need the other team to lay off. I think there is a real chance that they do that. I wanted to point out Arkansas’ offensive line, their six then run blocking this year according to PFF.

Kyle Hunter:

We know Pittman’s a good offensive line guy, but we didn’t think he was going to turn this offensive line into a great line right away, really, really quick here. Great job, 13th and rushing play success. The Arkansas team shows up that was losing 17 to 7 in the third quarter to Rice. Then Gary, I like Georgia Southern. If the Arkansas team shows up that plays against Texas, then this play is in trouble. But I think scheduling spot-wise, Georgia Southern makes sense. Arkansas, I’m concerned about whether Georgia Southern is going to be able to stop them. All this is to say I don’t have anything strong here. But I think this is a fascinating handicap.

Gary Segars:

It is definitely a situational spot for me. Let’s go to the official picks. We’ll go ahead and do that. I love this spot for Georgia Southern. That Rice game is what I was going to bring up, Kyle. You brought up a very interesting point there. They look terrible in that first half against Rice mainly because I think they were gearing up for Texas. My official play is Georgia Southern plus 23 and a half. My line was Arkansas minus 18 here. And I really believe that they are going to be able to keep this thing at least within the scores and odds, 23 and a half just felt like too much.

Gary Segars:

Maybe a touch of an overreaction to exactly how badly they beat Texas just last week. But coming up, Texas A&M, they haven’t beaten them in quite some time either. And they got a real shot to do it this year. I think they’re looking ahead to that one as opposed to the Georgia Southern. I don’t think Georgia Southern is as bad as they have looked. But we’ll see. We’ll see. That’s why it’s called gambling. Everybody that’s jumping into the chat, make sure and get your games in that you want us to hit in the Q&A at the end of the show. But we will move on.

Gary Segars:

Mississippi State at Memphis. That is our next game 4:00 PM Eastern time. The line sits Mississippi State minus three juiced at minus 120. So, a lot of love for the Bulldogs right here. I do believe the total is at 64. So expect a high scoring game especially after Memphis and Arkansas State put up over 100 total last week. I feel like the line stinks a little bit. These two have not played since 2011 but Mississippi State, 5 and 0, straight up and against the spread in their last five against Memphis. Mike Leach, 0 and 3 against the spread as a favorite at Mississippi State. Memphis, 5 and 0 against the spread as a home dog. Parker, let me get you in here. I still feel really good about Mississippi State here.

Parker Fleming:

Yeah. Again, that negative 3 is kind of… I forget what the Virginia Tech game yesterday we talked about, this is weird, what do they know that I don’t know, why is this line like this? This one a little bit makes me think at that. Memphis without Grant gone I’m less excited about overall the quarterback who’s out with a leg injury and it’s not like Hannigan looked bad against Arkansas State but Arkansas State is not exactly a great team this year. And so, again, good teams put up good numbers on bad teams but I had this number at almost 10 points, not even accounting for a quarterback injury there.

Parker Fleming:

And so, Miss State, 49th in EPA per margin but their competition has been a little bit better than NC State game. They rebounded really, really nicely from a less than stellar start. And even though Memphis is ninth overall unadjusted on offense, obviously, that’s going to be closer to like 45th, if you account for the fact that they’ve played some pretty bad opponents. But their defense is 90-second unadjusted and that’s only going to fall in EPA per play. Especially against Arkansas State, they have 24th quarter points, and really just weren’t able to get a stop at all.

Parker Fleming:

One big difference maker that will matter and something to keep your eye on in this matchup if Memphis is going to do something crazy, which I’m not predicting, Mississippi State is allowing an average starting field position of almost 33 yards, which is 99th in the nation. That is a huge value. Talking about starting to drive 8 yards ahead of a touchback is a huge thing and expected points over the course of a game. And Memphis is on average starting at the 29.4, which is 44th.

Parker Fleming:

So if Memphis’ offense through special teams, through defensive, through turnovers find themselves in positive short drive situations, that might be their key to winning because they are a little bit explosive, again, 0.520 on offense, their EPA per play. I really think that Mississippi State is much more talented at every position. And I think that Mississippi State’s first game, we’re writing off week one, that’s fine. Last week against NC State, I think they performed really well against a bad team. And I think that they should win easily in Memphis, even if the Tigers aren’t letting people bring cowbells into the Liberty Bowl.

Gary Segars:

Yes. No, I’m glad you brought up that point. No artificial noisemakers in the Liberty Bowl on Saturday. Look, Memphis still has big time playmakers but I don’t know that I trust the quarterback set again right now. I mean, what’s this performance going to look like against pressure? These Bulldog lines are insanely physical. Memphis defense, 6.94 yards per play to Arkansas State. I feel like Mississippi State is going to be able to do a little more than that. There will be plenty of windows for Mississippi State to have big plays in this game.

Gary Segars:

And I trust them to be able to get this done. Not leech has not covered as a favorite at state yet, I think that’s happening this week. Let’s go ahead and jump into the official plays here. Kyle is going to pass on it. But both Parker and myself, we really liked the Bulldogs here. Mississippi State minus 3, this is a bit of a rivalry. It’s been 10 years since they played and state does not exactly lose to Memphis. So things have changed for that Tiger program but we both feel good about the Bulldogs here.

Gary Segars:

Let’s go ahead and dive into… Oh, by the way, Steven Cuffy on the BetUS YouTube Channel chat said I love the over in the Mississippi State versus Memphis game. Yeah, I tend to agree. I mean, this looks like it could be high scoring. But that all depends on what Memphis is going to do, because I think the Memphis defense will give up points. We’ll move on to the next game here. East Carolina at Marshall, 6:00 PM Eastern Time. Marshall, a 10 and a half point favorite at home, the total is 58 here. Now, Marshall has looked great in two wins. Quarterback Grant Wells, 70% completion rate, 680 yards in two games, three touchdowns. He does have three interceptions, though.

Gary Segars:

East Carolina, four straight overs as a road underdog, 5 and 5 overs, unders in the last 10 games. Both Marshall games this year have gone over. East Carolina just got bit last week by South Carolina. They felt like they had that game and they were in complete control early. But as the game wore on, the better athletes ended up winning out. And East Carolina now sits at 012, we thought this would be in a much improved team, I thought. But it has not turned out to be so, at least not yet. And now they get to go into Marshall, who has looked absolutely dominating in their two wins. We’ll start off with Kyle here. Give me your thoughts on East Carolina and Marshall.

Kyle Hunter:

So Gary, I want to start by saying remember week one, when Marshall played Navy, I believe you had Marshall was at minus 2 and a half or something like that.

Gary Segars:

Yeah.

Kyle Hunter:

I mean, how amazing does that play look in hindsight. Obviously, it played out tremendously. But imagine if those two played today what the line would be. I mean, Marshall will be favored by something like 14 points or something like that, because-

Gary Segars:

It might be three touchdowns. It might be three touchdowns.

Kyle Hunter:

Yeah, yeah. I mean, Marshall has been really, really interesting team to me, because before the season, I always try to look at coaching changes and where tempo changes may happen because being it’s big totals guy, I tried to look for changes there. Marshall’s tempo kind of caught me off guard in his first couple games this year. Marshall ranks first in the country in tempo so far this year, using less than 19 seconds between snaps. That’s actually faster than UCF went last year.

Kyle Hunter:

So Marshall is really going extremely fast. The Football odds makers have been trying to adjust these totals. This total has been bet up about five points. I still think it’s too low. This one kind of jumped out at me this week. I think that certainly I would have rather had it under some of those key numbers. But we’re still talking a number in the 50s with the team playing 18.8 seconds between snaps and Marshall. And they’re also airing it out.

Kyle Hunter:

Marshall was throwing the ball on 56% of their plays despite having been way ahead in both of their games, we saw them play in that game against Navy just throwing it deep even though they’re up by 40 points on the surface academy. That was surprising but they’re willing to do it. And then last week, they played the FCS team and just go ahead and smash them. I guess it’s time for the Grant Wells show. And I’m here for it. I’m good with that. Marshall is a double digit favorite here, East Carolina likely going to be playing from behind.

Kyle Hunter:

So I don’t think they’re going to get to choose to play as slow as they can, because they think they’re going to need to come back. So the game script plays out to where I think Holt and this bunch are going to have to pick it up if they want to stay in this game at all. I think Marshall will keep going fast. Marshall defense, they might be pretty good but it’s kind of hard to say when you’ve played UNC Central and Navy. So we don’t know yet.

Kyle Hunter:

I know East Carolina’s offense isn’t that great. But East Carolina’s played some pretty good defenses upstate and then they play that game against South Carolina who is not very good on offense, but they are pretty good defensively. So, I think Marshall, while they are in a questionable spot as far as whether they’ll be able to beat down the opposition, I think they’ll be playing from the lead.

Kyle Hunter:

And Marshall, this is the best offense they face, that’s not saying very much because the Navy and UNC Central, but we don’t know yet about Marshall’s defense, I think they’re probably pretty good. But you get a team with a total in the 50s playing as fast as they are with an East Carolina defense. It’s giving up 6.43 yards per play. I have to take the over in this one. It’s just one of those where I’ve seen this enough times, it’s one of those systems. If you’re playing that fast, the totals only at 58, and you’re playing against a bad defense, I have to bet the over.

Gary Segars:

Now Charles Huff is the new first year head coach there, has not been a head coach before but he kept the offensive coordinator. Parker, is it possible that Doc Holliday while he was at Marshall kept the handcuffs on this offense a little bit?

Parker Fleming:

Man, that was just a weird situation. And last year, I think Kyle made this point on one of our preview shows, but Marshall down the stretch, they lost to Rice in a very weird game. Wells was injured. They really stalled there at the end due to COVID issues and some injuries. And so, I think that this offense is really interesting. One stack that kind of stands out to me is Grant Wells so far, he’s 100-second in time to throw in terms of being the longest to throw the ball, and he’s 50-second in average depth of target.

Parker Fleming:

And so really what that says to me is that against Navy and NC Central, oops, sorry, that they were playing, they were trying to get these downfield routes and their receivers weren’t getting separation, they weren’t finding what they wanted. And so they were checking down to these intermediary routes. Now, last week, East Carolina against South Carolina, Zeb Noland complete 7 of 12 passes 10 or more yards down the field and on passes 20 yards down the field, Noland was three for four, 75% completion, a 98.6 passing grade for whatever that’s worth from PFF.

Parker Fleming:

So it’ll be interesting to see if this is the game where Wells can get that deep ball going. Because largely, what he’s doing right now is just trying to make a read, it’s not there, and coming back. And that I think is putting a little bit of an explosive ceiling on this offense. They are in terms of passing success rate, they’re 14th overall 15th but in terms of offensive EPA per play, they’re 38. And so, there’s a difference in saying, hey, they’re pretty consistent, but they’re not that explosive on offense. And so, if they can get that deep threat here against East Carolina figure out how to get those receivers to get some separation, I do think that this should be a game where Marshall should run for sure.

Gary Segars:

That does make sense. So let’s move to the official plays here. And we only have one on this one. Kyle is going to ride the over. And I like it. I totally understand it. Over 58 is Kyle’s play. Again, everybody that’s in the chat, jump in with all of your games for the Q&A at the end of the show. We will talk about anything that you guys want to. We have four more games that we’re going to hit. So let’s go ahead and dive into the next one here. Utah State headed to Air Force. Now Air Force looked fantastic against Navy last week.

Gary Segars:

They are an eight point favorite here, total sits at 53 and a half. Utah State this year, 1 and 0 straight up and against the spread as a road dog. Before that, they were 2 and 6 against the spread, 0 and 8 straight up beforehand. Air Force, 5 and 2 against the spread as a home favorite since the beginning of the 2019 season. Blake Anderson at Utah State has them sitting at 2 and 0, and this team looked absolutely terrible for what, a year and a half under Gary Anderson, just pitiful, pitiful team after Matt Wells left but they’ve had over 600 yards passing in two games.

Gary Segars:

I am curious, are people overvaluing Air Force here? I mean, they did beat up a really bad Navy team. The game before that they played Lafayette. They are really good against the run and they haven’t had to face a passing attack yet. So Utah State number 43 EPA per play margin this year, Air Force giving up 1.34 yards per rush. But again, they hadn’t faced a passing attack yet. Parker, let’s start with you on some numbers on this one.

Parker Fleming:

Yeah. So this game is really interesting to me. I actually have this as Utah State plus less than one point. And so that’s largely an home field advantage there, that slight bump. I am interested in Utah State. So one, looking at a macro situation, I can explain away their wins. North Dakota, okay, fine. FCS school played in the spring. They’re having a hard fall. I get that. Washington State without going down this rabbit trail has some leadership issues regarding handling of certain global situations and staffing issues.

Parker Fleming:

And so, they just had some distractions to start the season. And so I can say, yeah, they got caught. And that had at least a part and I don’t think Washington State is a very, very good team right now. If you look at Air Force’s numbers, especially filtering out garbage time, they’ve stalled a little bit on offense. So their defense, they’ve really been able to just stop people on defense, 13.6 success rate. I’m going to go ahead and say that’s probably ESPN’s play by play data being weird. It’s not as low as 13.6.

Parker Fleming:

It’s good but that’s not a 13.6% success rate. But Utah State on offense, 340.195 EPA per play. If you look at their success rate, they’re 14th overall there. And so again, that tells me they’re efficient and that’s how you create explosive opportunities. And so, if you can be really, really efficient against Air Force, you’re going to provide a lot of opportunities to go over topic in defense. And then Air Force is really relying on that one big play.

Parker Fleming:

And I think Utah State, despite the fact that they’re rushing success rate as 79th in the nation, their passing success rate, 35.5 on defense is 35th. So I don’t think there’s going to be an easy big play. I don’t think that they’re going to get fooled. This one is going to be really, really interesting and I just have it neck and neck razor thin. I will say love the troops, always rooting for Air Force. But man, I would love to see Blake Anderson win 10 games this year. That would just be a great college football story. So always rooting for him.

Gary Segars:

Win 10 games. Good gracious. That would be a lot of fun, though. Definitely it would be fun. My line on this was the Air Force minus 8. So, I mean, that’s right on the number. And Kyle, let’s get you in here. I know that you have some thoughts here. But the Aggies, they have definitely impressed in the first couple of games.

Kyle Hunter:

Yeah. Utah State is the team that I’ve been high on here all year. I have a big ticket on there over three season wins. So four wins, they better do it at this point. If they can’t get to that, you have Luke and Boehner comes out and gets injured or something like that, I’m going to be pretty bummed after this one. But I will say North Dakota is a good FCS team. So, they trailed most of the first half of that game. And then they came out and just dominated them in the second half. Like Parker said, Washington State has some issues now, but still going to Washington State and winning that game is pretty impressive, especially considering where Utah State was last year. Air Force, our friend Parker had a great play on them. Last week, I have to say, you’re looking through the box score there, Navy finished with 68 total yards in that game. Is that bad? That seems bad.

Gary Segars:

Bad enough to fire your OC. Yeah.

Kyle Hunter:

Yeah. Yeah, that’s a bad enough for that.

Parker Fleming:

That’s a whole can of worms, too.

Kyle Hunter:

All right. Air Force’s defense is much improved this year. But I think the perception of Air Force’s defense couldn’t possibly be any higher than it is right now, because they just played against Navy who runs the triple option was there used to stopping. And let’s be honest, Navy is not running the triple option well. So then they played against Lafayette before that and FCS team is not very good. I don’t think Air Force defense is near as good as everybody thinks they are right now.

Kyle Hunter:

So, I think Utah State with the passing attack, as Gary mentioned, totally different than anything they’ve gone against so far. Also, Utah State playing very quickly, this is the Utah State team that’s 11th and offensive explosiveness so far this year. They have 39 plays of 10 yards or more in two games. It’s really impressive. Even against Washington State of North Dakota, that’s very impressive. Blake Anderson’s 48 and 41 ATS as a coach all time. This team comes into Air Force with Air Force riding really high off that rivalry win.

Kyle Hunter:

Air Force cared more about last week’s game than this week’s, I would think. Utah State 10th and tempo, those teams that run up tempo offenses can bother teams like Air Force and Navy sometimes because they’re not used to going against that. And as Gary said, they’re playing a team that throws it a lot more than they’re used to seeing. I think Utah State is good enough running to keep teams on. They’re two-dimensional.

Kyle Hunter:

Really, I think Utah State can be very competitive in a game like this. And while I like Utah State, plus 8 is my pick. I think you should put some of this on the money line because of the spot here for Air Force. Parker’s numbers had this one at close to one point. I had plus 4 here for Utah State, but I think the situation says that Utah State has a chance to win a game like this because I think Air Force, as I said, you want to buy low, sell high, I think this is a good chance to sell high on Air Force.

Gary Segars:

That totally makes sense. Let’s move to the official play here. And we do have one. Kyle is going to roll with the Aggies plus 8 on the road at Air Force. And like I said, maybe sprinkle a little money line action on this thing. Maybe put a little pizza money on that. It could definitely pay out fairly well. So, we’ve got three more games that we’re going to hit before we jump into our Q&A. Go ahead and remind everybody to subscribe to the channel. Make sure that you like the video for us. And of course, jump into the chat. We would definitely like to hear that.

Gary Segars:

Mark jumped in. Mark Holmes said show some support. Let’s hit that like button. You always like to hear that from the audience. So the next game up here, Auburn heads to Penn State. And this one is a monster. This is the big primetime game college game day. Penn State sits as a five point favorite right now. Total is at 52 and a half. And I’m not going to tell everything just yet. Let’s talk about some betting trends. Auburn, one in five against the spread in their last six against the big 10, 2 and 5 against the spread in their last seven as a road to underdog, Penn State has covered three straight as a home favorite. The matchup to watch here, I think, Derrick Mason’s defense against Mike Yurcich’s offense. Kyle, let’s get you in here to start this one off. This is a massive, massive game that not a lot of people had high hopes for Auburn this year in Bryan Harsin’s first year. What do you think about this matchup?

Kyle Hunter:

Yeah. We knew nothing about Auburn from their first two games because of the opponents they played against. Certainly they blew out teams that they should blow out but now we find out about what Auburn really is. Bo Nix, the home road splits. This is something when you’re handicapping something like baseball, you like to look at home road splits for pitchers, usually you don’t see such a drastic home road split for a quarterback. Bo Nix at home in his career, 15 touchdowns in one pick, sports reference passer efficiency rating is 141 and a half for Bo Nix at home.

Kyle Hunter:

On the road, quite a bit different, 9 touchdowns, 10 picks, 54% completion percentage only and a passer efficiency rating of 105.4. So, quite a drastic difference here. I don’t want to trust Bo Nix on the road. And I’ll tell you, I’ve been to a lot of college football games and no environment has been better than Happy Valley at night. The whiteout game is really, really intense. It is something else. I’m not trusting Bo Nix going in there to be successful.

Kyle Hunter:

I don’t think Bryan Harsin even really wants this game to be riding on Bo Nix. So I think we’ll see a lot of Bigsby in the ground game. They’ve been really successful on the ground but look at who they’ve played against. Akron, Alabama State, you ought to be able to run a bunch on them. It’s going to be a little bit different here against Penn State. Penn State held Wisconsin to 3.8 yards per play. I think that’s very impressive showing in Ball State not a bad offense either, 4.2 yards per play.

Kyle Hunter:

So Penn State’s defense has really impressed me a lot so far this year. What about their offense, though? The offensive line has been questionable in pass blocking, especially. I think Clifford is inconsistent. He’s okay. He’s not great, not terrible. Like I said, really impressive atmosphere, great home field advantage. Nix’s Happy Valley at night cannot bet on Auburn in this game. There’s no way I could take that. I certainly lean Penn State.

Kyle Hunter:

Guys, am I bashing Bo Nix a little bit too much? I mean, it’s certainly nothing, certainly nothing personal but just Bo Nix not shown us that he can show up in a game like this on the road and be really impressive. Maybe he doesn’t have to if they can run the ball. I do think that the under could be a good look as well. The under has been down a lot already. I think that is the right side. I wish I had gotten that one earlier, to be honest with you. I lean Penn State and like the under as well.

Gary Segars:

You did mention Bo Nix. This is the battle of quarterbacks with issues, between him and Sean Clifford, nine games against top 15 defenses for Bo Nix is 2 and 7 straight up, average loss of 9.9 points there. Parker, give me your thoughts here. I know that you and I feel very similarly on this one. I mean, what do you think about this number?

Parker Fleming:

Yeah. So on paper, I had this as Penn State by four. And I think that my opponent adjustments are not strong enough for what Auburn has faced. Their rushing offense has been good but two numbers that I look at, yards after contact against Akron 6 and then against Alabama State 4.3 per carry. So I don’t know that I’m making a ton of emphasis off of FCS and Akron athletes missing tackles against Tank Bigsby. I think that they’ve got some talent there.

Parker Fleming:

But I do think that the Auburn offense is what really, really worries me. They’re rushing EPA allowed on defense is really high. But again, there’s garbage time, who knows, guys rotating in and out. I don’t put too much stock in that early. But what I do put stock in is Bo Nix looked great against Akron. He completed 95% of his passes. He really was able to attack in a way that made Auburn look like maybe with this Mike Bobo were going to show up and announce that we’re here by running the ball. Maybe they were going to free Nix up.

Parker Fleming:

And then he went out against Alabama State and looked really bad. He completed only 52.9% of his passes. His aid out was only 9.5. So again, you could say maybe they’re holding something in the tank for Penn State but, I mean, I just think he should be able to look a little bit more competent against an FCS really, really bad team. So Nix is where the stops for me because Penn State’s front is going to be able to stop the rush. That’s just going to happen.

Parker Fleming:

And I don’t believe that if you shut off Tank Bigsby you say, Bo Nix, you have to beat me. I think Penn State wins that matchup. So I have this on paper about Penn State minus 4. If you look at the matchups and say Penn State’s rushing defense is pretty good, they’re going to match well with Auburn’s rushing offense, then it comes down to can Bo Nix beat me on the road whiteout Saturday night, Happy Valley taking Penn State here.

Gary Segars:

Auburn did return all five of their offensive lineman from last year. But Bryan Harsin is still looking for the right combination with that offensive line to get the running game going effectively. And they have looked great in the first two. Again, what can you take from those games? But he said that even in this game, he is going to be mixing and matching again. Sean Clifford, who we mentioned before, zero turnover worthy throws in the first two games here, 21% of his throws so far this season have been 20 plus yards down the field that was compared to only 9% last year.

Gary Segars:

So Mike Yurcich kind of opening this thing up a little bit and I think that he may trust Sean Clifford a little more than we thought he would to start this thing off. So I am riding with you, Parker. I really like Penn State in this spot, especially at home in the ninth game. I think Auburn has looked great but it has been smoke and mirrors, smoke and mirrors. So, let’s move to the official picks here. And the two plays, Parker and myself are riding with Penn State minus 5 at home against the Auburn Tigers.

Gary Segars:

Let’s move into the next game. We got two more to go. Virginia heads to North Carolina 7:30 PM Eastern Time kick. The line sits North Carolina favored by 8, total of 66. That’s a lot of points. Virginia 2 and 4 against spread their last six is road dog, North Carolina 5 and 2 in their last seven as a home favorite. However, Virginia, 4 and 0 straight up and against the spread in their last four against North Carolina. Brennan Armstrong, 72% completion percentage, nearly 750 yard passing in two games, seven touchdowns, one pick.

Gary Segars:

Did Sam Howell get right against Georgia State? I don’t know. We’ve already seen Howell look not great. Now he won’t be on the road this time. But he was against Virginia Tech. I don’t know that Virginia has the same kind of defense that Virginia Tech does. But their offense can certainly put up points. Kyle, I won’t call you in for this. We’re going to go back to Parker on it. Parker, give me some numbers here on UVA and what they can do against North Carolina.

Parker Fleming:

My line here is North Carolina by less than a point. So I think that the issue is whether Sam Howell gets right. I think the issue is whether the surrounding cast can be cohesive enough to pose an offensive threat that we thought North Carolina was going to have going into the season. But if you go into this game and you’re talking about North Carolina’s offense only, you haven’t been watching Virginia. Virginia has a really good offense to start the season here. And again, you can start to look at quality of opponent. But Illinois had a competent front against Nebraska and Adrian Martinez is not an awful quarterback.

Parker Fleming:

So I think there’s some information to be gleaned from that. Brennan Armstrong for Virginia looks really, really good this season. I mean, 11.6 yards per attempt when he’s kept clean, 6.3 under pressure, and his drop off from completion percentage is only 72 to 66, so they’re giving him a varied offense where he’s able to say, hey, if I don’t have the first read, let me get rid of it. And so, that I think is really smart to help a quarterback grow especially someone who may not be as talented as someone else on the other side of the ball.

Parker Fleming:

What I love about Virginia is that they have the weirdest depth chart because they have listed Keytaon Thompson, the Mississippi State transfer, as football player. And he does all sorts of weird things for them. He lines up they’ll do two quarterback sets, he’s rushing really well 7.1 yards per attempt. And so, that’s fun. I think Bronco Mendenhall has a really interesting way to use the talent that he has. And so with a really nice way of guiding Armstrong and making smart decisions being consistent on offense, I think that they will be able to keep up with North Carolina here.

Parker Fleming:

If you look at their success rate, overall on offense, north of 55% and you look at their EPA, 0.47. So again, they are consistent and they are explosive. I think that’s going to bode really well against the North Carolina team who’s frankly receivers and offensive line and rushing game are more prone to mistakes with more opportunities that you give them. So I like Virginia to be close here. I might do pizza money on outright Virginia, when I know on the road and kind of rough but I-

Gary Segars:

To delve into the chat, we do have a few questions guys asking about Toledo, Colorado State, et cetera. So jump in, let us know what games you want to talk about in the Q&A here in just one moment. Our next game here, Tulane at Ole Miss 8:00 PM Eastern Time pick. Ole Miss a 14 and a half point favorite total of 76. I mean, just bananas. Tulane of course has trolled Lane Kiffin a little bit because he said earlier this week that Tulane looks like an SEC team and Tulane came out with a graphic on Twitter where they are wearing their helmet stickers from the 1930s SEC championships odds that they wanted before they left the league.

Gary Segars:

Tulane 3 and 6 against the spread their last 9 as road dog. Ole Miss 3 and 3 against the spread at home under Lane Kiffin. Tulane down 37 to 14 at the half against Oklahoma fought back. We’ll talk about all this here in a minute. I want to know about the number. I want to know about the total here. Kyle, 76 seems like a ton of points. These two teams have been putting up points quite a bit. Chip Long, the offense coordinator for Tulane, has impressed in the first couple of games in his tenure there. And, of course, we know what to expect from Kiffin and Jeff Libby. Give me your thoughts on the total here.

Kyle Hunter:

Yeah, my total for this game was 75. And I can’t take an under with these two teams. The way they’re playing is extremely fast. They have to make this thing 80 or higher for me to even think about it. So I’m really surprised Tulane is playing this fast. I thought that they would play faster with the new offensive coordinator but they’re seventh in the nation in tempo. Ole Miss is fifth. We know they’re going to play really fast. There’s going to be a ton of snaps in a game like this, a lot of possessions.

Kyle Hunter:

What do we make of that Tulane and Oklahoma contest, because Tulane actually held Oklahoma to 5.9 yards per play, not bad at all considering how good that Oklahoma offense is. We know Oklahoma probably slept off a little bit and that second half didn’t play up to par. Is Tulane’s defense actually decent or was that just more about Oklahoma? Lots of love for Matt Corral here on the BetUS college football show and it’s very deserving.

Kyle Hunter:

I think Corral is a tremendous quarterback. He fits perfectly for this offense. Frankly, I don’t see many teams on their schedule that are to be able to slow down Ole Miss this year. And I don’t think Tulane is one of them either. One thing I will say is I don’t love betting against Willie Fritz. So I think he’s an excellent coach. He’s been really good ATS, better is a favorite though, 31 and 16 ATS is a favorite, 21 and 20 against the spread as an underdog so overall been very good to bet on him. One thing I want to point out, which this seems very basic, but I feel like it has to be said at least at one point getting margin and a game with a total of 76 is a lot easier than getting margin in a game with a total of 48, something like that.

Kyle Hunter:

The same applies for something in college basketball. Some of these games with a really low total, you can’t lay a ton of points because it’s hard to get there in a game like Virginia college basketball game or something. But this is basic handicapping but some people do overlook this. More snaps, more possessions equals a higher chance to win by a larger margin. So, Gary, I think you’re the one that has a play on this one. I don’t really have anything that’s a big edge here. But I’m going to lean toward Ole Miss. I can’t take anything on the total. I mean, it’s hard to bet over 76. But like I said, I can’t take the under.

Gary Segars:

Parker, let me get you in here before I give you my reasoning for taking this game. Go ahead and tell me about this Kiffin-Fritz matchup.

Parker Fleming:

Gary, do you know where the Ole Miss Rebels are going week after next?

Gary Segars:

They’re going to Alabama. Yeah.

Parker Fleming:

To Tuscaloosa. So they got a bi-week and then Tuscaloosa. So I think there’s a lot of concern about like look ahead spot here of like, hey, we did well against Louisville and we’re kind of on primetime and we want to just take care of business and make sure nobody gets hurt and have two full weeks to prep for Alabama. If you do it right, you might even have three full weeks to prep for Alabama. So that’s why I stayed away from this situationally. I do think Tulane’s defense is feisty. I also want to point out I’ve talked about Michael Pratt on this show, Tulane’s quarterback. He’s doing really, really well and looks good and competent, the Chip Long offense.

Parker Fleming:

One thing that I’m really, really bummed about as someone who casually roots for Tulane and Willie Fritz, Pratt is fourth and passes drops, 20% of his passes have been dropped. Last season drops just murdered Tulane. Two drops in the Oklahoma game, honestly, if they could have gotten one of those, we might be talking about a very weird college football season. And so, it doesn’t look like their drop issues have improved.

Parker Fleming:

And so, I don’t know they’re going to be able to keep pace with Ole Miss just because there are going to be so many opportunities that they miss with these receivers who really are struggling to hold on to the ball. So, again, I would lean on this here but, again, I stayed away from it because the situational aspect here of looming with Alabama, honestly, this is going to be Kevin’s best shot, I think. And so, to get to two and a half weeks to prepare for Alabama, they might struggle a little bit Tulane just because they’re looking ahead to bigger things on the horizon.

Gary Segars:

Now that did scare me just a little bit. But I think that the line is this low. And I say low because it’s only 14 and a half. My line was actually 18 here. I had this of 49 to 31 game. And look, can Tulane can the ball? Yes, maybe, who knows. Against Oklahoma, that’s the game that everybody saw. That’s the game everybody watched. And you didn’t watch it. The majority of people out there did not watch it until the second half when this thing started to get close again. This game was 37 to 14 at the half. And Oklahoma only scored three points in the second half.

Gary Segars:

Here was what they did in the second half against Tulane that have failed fourth down in their own territory that Tulane then took him for touchdown. They had an interception. They had a missed field goal in the second half, all of which turned into points for Tulane and then Tulane had to get an onside kick just to be able to have a shot at the end of the ballgame. I do not believe Tulane is as good as they look, especially that was right after the hurricane, right after Tulane was displaced.

Gary Segars:

They had to move the game around, the logistics were crazy. I don’t believe Tulane is as good as they looked against Oklahoma. Oklahoma took the foot off the gas and it was incredibly easy to see, so easy to see. In this situation, yeah, I could see almost maybe taking the foot off the gas again. But I don’t think that’s what Kiffin does. Kiffin doesn’t like to take his foot off the gas. I think he’s going to put up a ton of points here. So in this situation, I think there is value with Ole Miss only giving up two touchdowns and a half point.

Gary Segars:

And I’m going to ride with it. So you did mention, goodness gracious, Michael Pratt. Five touchdowns, two rushing touchdowns already as well. He looks fantastic. So I do think the offenses will show up in the spot. But I trust Ole Miss’ defense a little more than Tulane’s here. So let’s dive into the official play. And I will be the one that decides to roll with the Rebels here. Fun matchup, of course, Chip Long against DJ Durkin, the defense coordinator for Ole Miss. But yeah, I’m taking Ole Miss, minus the 14 and a half. I think the Rebels are going to put up a ton of points put on a show before they have their bi-week heading into Tuscaloosa.

Gary Segars:

And it is going to be fireworks in this game in Oxford on Saturday night. So with that said, we have a Q&A. We have several things that we’ve got a bunch of guys asking about Nebraska, Oklahoma. And of course, we covered that yesterday. We do have a question about Arizona State and BYU. Now, the line sits right now, Arizona State minus 4. And the game is in Provo, Arizona State has not… They haven’t looked great at all. And in BYU, of course, a massive, massive win in the holy war last week, the total is at 51 on this one. Kyle, I know both of you want to talk about this one. Kyle, let me get you in here first. I don’t know what to make of this game.

Kyle Hunter:

Yeah, 71% of the bets on Arizona State, 95% of the money on Arizona state. So somebody really likes Arizona State a lot. This line has gone from minus 1 and a half to minus 4. Minus 1 and a half, I would have liked Arizona State quite a bit. I think Arizona State has been sleepwalking a little bit in those first couple games. This is the game that they get up for. The question is can BYU play really well two games in a row, because that holy war win is a big deal for them. They hadn’t been able to beat Utah in a long time. I could only bet Arizona State if I was betting a side in this one, because I think this is a bad spot for BYU.

Kyle Hunter:

And as far as the total, I think that this would look like an under if I was going to bet anything as far as the total because my number is 49, so not a big difference here. But I think Arizona State’s defense is very solid. I don’t think BYU offensively is really all that good. In fact, if you look at BYU, they’ve been outgained on the year. So even in that first win, they didn’t look very good and then Utah put up quite a few yards in the second half against them that BYU was able to hold on. I think the market is a little bit too high on BYU right now or at least it was at the one and a half. So now I think this has moved in to align with where it should be. I lean Arizona State, I lean the under as well.

Gary Segars:

Parker, how much can be put on last week’s game against Utah? I mean, it’s such a bitter rivalry. They are doing a wide out. They are trying to make it a big deal. But can you emotionally get up for two straight games like that?

Parker Fleming:

Yeah. That’s something I love about college football and betting lines and betting is there are these intangibles. You don’t really have this in the NFL for instance or MLB where it’s a random Tuesday and a pitcher is getting his first start or something. But in college football, you have this legitimate… There’s some temperamental nature to this and figuring this out. So I kind of agree with Kyle. I’m a little bit leaning Arizona State. Although I will say, we have fewer data points about Arizona State than anyone else in the nation. I have no idea who Daniels is as a quarterback.

Parker Fleming:

But what I will say is that BYU last week against Utah, Tyler Allgeier, I’m terrible with names, someone will correct me, 102 yards, 3.8 yards per attempt, 3.07 yards after contact per attempt. He forced seven missed tackles in 27 attempts. That does not sound like something that happens consistently against a Kyle Whittingham defense. So I don’t think that’s sustainable. And I think that the run success at BYU had that’s taken pressure off of the passing game might not be there against an Arizona State team who is devoid of the emotion here.

Parker Fleming:

So even if BYU can get up, Arizona State is not saying, “Hey man, it’s make or break, we’re going to get embarrassed if we lose this game.” They’re saying, “Hey, let’s go to Provo and take care of business against a non-P5 team. So as big as a week as it was for BYU last week, breaking their streak against Utah, joining the big 12 in the future, there is a lot of emotion and there’s a position for emotional letdown but the biggest thing for me is those missed tackles. I don’t know that you can count on rushing success being so consistent when it involves normally disciplined players missing tackles maybe in the heat of the emotion at the moment. So, I’m staying away from this but I would lean Arizona State just on talent alone. But it will be an interesting game and I think we’ll learn a lot about both teams there moving forward.

Gary Segars:

I tend to agree. We’ll hit on three more very quickly. Jay A tuned in and he wants to know about Colorado State and Toledo. Toledo is a 14 and a half point favorite. My line on that was actually Toledo minus 17 but I can understand maybe dropping it a bit because of the spot right after a very narrow loss at Notre Dame that would have been an absolute season builder. Anybody got a thought on it?

Kyle Hunter:

And my line was the same as yours, Gary. So here, I couldn’t bet Colorado State. They’ve been so bad that they’re almost unbetable but that’s a really tough spot for Toledo coming off that very close to big upset there in South Bend. So I have to stay away from a game like this. I think I would take the over if I had to bet anything in this game, but that’s all I got for that one.

Gary Segars:

The next one here, Easy Baby 1988, Parker, I want to get you in on this one. How do you all feel about Florida State, Wake Forest? He said I’m kind of feeling Florida State. That line is Wake Forest minus 4 and a half. I don’t know where to go with this, because I don’t know what is going on at Florida State right now. Parker, Give me your thoughts.

Parker Fleming:

Regarding Florida State, it is hard to get out of a hole on offensive line. When your line just gets hollowed out like it did at Florida State, it’s going to take time to fix that. One thing I will point out is I do like Sam Hartman. He’s experienced that at Wake Forest. And I think that, generally, he’s been okay, which is all that they need of him. Adjusted completion percentage of 70.6 is an amazing but averaging a consistent 8.3 yards per play, Wake Forest will run this really terrifying mash where Hartman will just stick the ball there and he’ll take a couple steps and it’s the most stressful thing in the entire world.

Parker Fleming:

Now we’re watching with interest. I don’t care if he gets tackled, but I just scream inside, “Do something, Sam,” like I don’t know what’s happening. I think that Wake Forest is good and competitive. It wouldn’t surprise me to see a dead cat bounce from Florida State here, again, with a team so volatile. I don’t know what to do with this spot. I like Wake Forest. I think I would lean towards Wake Forest just because, again, you know me, I like quiet competent over volatility. And I think that Wake Forest is quietly competent this year.

Gary Segars:

At the claw offense, the claw offense. We got one more that we’re going to hit, Heath Harrelson ask, will Georgia beat the crap out of South Carolina? That line is 31 and a half. It has come down a little bit. It got all the way up to 32. And if you go back through the history of this series in modern times, Georgia has never beaten South Carolina by that much. I still don’t know a ton about JT Daniels’ injury right now. But the mailman came in and delivered five touchdowns through the air last and I’m talking massive plays against UAB. I do think South Carolina is a little bit better on defense than UAB is at least from a talent perspective. My line on this was actually Georgia minus 27, 31 and a half just seems like too much. I’m not betting this one. Are either of you guys looking at this game at all?

Parker Fleming:

Kyle, go ahead.

Kyle Hunter:

No, go ahead.

Parker Fleming:

Somebody asked me on it and I have it at Georgia plus like a little over 10. And that’s a little conservative because, again, I throw out some garbage sign against UAB and everything. JT Daniels’ injury makes me nervous, and the history of this game makes me nervous. But I will say, plus 35, I put $1 down just despite my Georgia fan friend on the money line for South Carolina because anything can happen here. So I don’t have a play on this game. But it would be nice for Georgia in that national conversation to have Daniels back and beat cover against the South Carolina team that they’ve struggled to beat the last couple of years.

Gary Segars:

This is definitely entertaining to me. Kyle, go ahead and tell me. The total here is 47 and a half with a 31 and a half spread. Give me something.

Kyle Hunter:

Gary, you knew that’s where I was going to go, too, is 47 and a half with a total of 31 or 31 and a half. I can’t lay points in a game like that. That’s just against everything I would ever want to do. However, I think South Carolina is pretty weak, and we’re going to find that out in the next few games. So, I’m not anxious about betting South Carolina, 73% of the bets on South Carolina and 60% of the money is on Georgia. So we’ve seen this line go up from its opener, because there’s some sharp money on Georgia, I have to pass on a game like this.

Gary Segars:

I will do a little countering here. Remember, Will Muschamp is now an on-field assistant at Georgia. And he was the coach that got fired from South Carolina. Do he and Kirby decide to run this thing up a little bit? Because I don’t know that South Carolina is going to be able to score on that defense. So, I’m staying away from it. I think we’re all staying away from it. But maybe the line is not crazy. We’ll see. We shall see different kinds of circumstances there.

Gary Segars:

Let’s go ahead and get into the recap. Thank you again to everybody that jumped in with the Q&A. But let’s do our recap and get out of here. We have got several picks for the afternoon slate. Parker riding Alabama minus 14 and a half against Florida. He is riding Mississippi State minus 3 at Memphis, Penn State minus 5 at home against the Auburn Tigers. And he’s taking Virginia plus 8 on the road in Chapel Hill at North Carolina.

Gary Segars:

I, Gary, am taking Georgia Southern plus 23 and a half in favorable, Mississippi State minus 3 on the road at Memphis, Penn State minus 5 at home against Auburn, and Ole Miss minus 14 and a half at home against Tulane. And Kyle is taking the over 60 in Alabama, Florida, the over 58 in East Carolina Marshall, and he likes the Aggies of Utah State, the fight in Blake Anderson’s plus 8 at Air Force. Absolutely love the pics this week, guys. Absolutely love it.

Gary Segars:

Parker and I got a couple of them that we like together, always a fan of that. Now, let’s go ahead and remind everybody, you can sign up at BetUS, where the game begins. Make sure and use the promo code. NCAAF2021 gives you 125% signup bonus up to $2,500. And that is sports book exclusive. So do yourself a favor, there is a link in the description. Just go click that link and get it taken care of. I promise, you will not be disappointed.

Gary Segars:

Go sign up at BetUS, where the game begins. And, of course, as we say every week, we do this Wednesday at 5:00 PM Eastern Time. That is the earliest late games from the weekend and Thursday, 12:00 PM Eastern Time, every week. That’s the afternoon games and the evening games. Make sure you are subscribed to the channel and that you hit that notification bell so that you can be notified when we go live.

Gary Segars:

Of course, if you follow us on Twitter, you will already see that. We tweeted out, we let you know. But in case you missed the tweets, in case you don’t have that app open, the notification bell will let you know. And we appreciate you for being here. So with that said, we are going to go ahead and dive out of here. Hopefully everybody has a winning weekend. We will be back again next Wednesday for the BetUS college football show, where the game begins. We’ll see you all again next Wednesday.

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