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Gary Segars:

Welcome to the BetUS College Football Show. This is the August 23rd, week zero, preview show. That’s right, 2023 college football is officially upon us. I’m your host, Gary Segars. We are america’s favorite sportsbook. Of course, you can follow me on Instagram and TikTok @garywce, Twitter. That’s a different story for now, we’ll dive into that at some point. Before we roll into the games, let’s bring in the talent. Of course, on the left side of the screen, our analyst, the numbers guy, I call him the numerical guru. He’s @statsowar on Twitter, Parker Fleming. How are you, sir?

Parker Fleming:

Gary, I’m great man. I know we’ve joked all season or all summer about football finally being here. Man, it just feels great. I know this isn’t true for everybody, but I got to wear a pullover and shorts this morning so it feels like fall. Feels like football’s here. I’m excited, man.

Gary Segars:

The shorts thing, I’m with you. The pullover, not so much. It’s about 100 degrees where I am right now. It doesn’t feel like football weather right now. It did last week. It is what it is. On the right side of the screen, of course, our award-winning professional handicapper, the best in the business, I call him. He’s @kylehunterpicks on Twitter, Kyle Hunter. Kyle, how are things with you?

Kyle Hunter:

Good, guys. I know if it was a regular week, we might be underwhelmed by some of these matchups here this week. Man, any weekend that we have college football back is tremendous. Really, looking forward to breaking these games down.

Gary Segars:

I am beyond ecstatic about UMass and New Mexico State on ESPN on Saturday night primetime. I can’t wait for it. We do have FCS games going on. We’re not going to talk about those today. We’re talking the seven FBS games. Now, if you haven’t already liked the video, hit subscribe, that’s the best, the easiest way to support the show. If you prefer the podcast, you can always listen to it on your favorite podcast app. Just search for the BetUS Football Show. After this show is done, you can go back and watch all of the preview shows that we did over the summer. That way, you are fully prepped for week zero and week one. You can make sure of course, that you are tracking the NCAAF odds as well. You visit betustv.com/odds in your browser.

For those that are new to the show, we always do a Q&A segment to close things out. Make sure and toss your questions into the chat. We’ll try and hit as many of those as we can at the end of the show. I do see Yari B, G Kelly, Search, Fox Mouldar, Uncle Keloa. I hope I said that right. All you guys already in the chat and we certainly appreciate it. Now gentlemen, there is no time to waste. Let’s go ahead and dive into the games. Game number one here. That’s right, Marcus Freeman’s Notre Dame Fighting Irish. They head across the pond to Dublin, Ireland to take on the Navy Midshipmen on Saturday, 2:30 PM Eastern Time on NBC. Notre Dame currently a 20-and-a-half-point favorite with a total sitting at 49 and a half. I’m sorry, 50 and a half. I think it just moved, actually. No, it’s down to 49. I’m looking at it live right now. That’s where it opened. It was 49 and a half, it’s now lower than that. It made its way up to 52 at one point. It’s backed down again.

Trend to watch with this one, Notre Dame games hit six straight overs to close last season. The Irish last year, they were two and one against the spread in neutral site games, only three and five against the spread as a favorite. Navy, four and two against the spread in their last six against Notre Dame. They are six and one against the number as a dog of 18 points or more since 2017. The over is seven and three in the last 10 meetings. In last year’s Notre Dame win 35 to 32, it went over by 26 and a half points. Parker, let’s start with you on this one. Notre Dame had quarterback issues last season, both with Tyler Buchner and Drew Pyne. Both of those guys have transferred. In comes Wake Forest transfer all time ACC touchdown leader, Sam Hartman SQB1. I think we can expect to see more downfield passing than last year. The Irish were number 132 in offensive explosiveness this last season. How much of Hartman’s success was the claw offense, the slow mesh at Wake versus what he’s capable of maybe in a pro-style system?

Parker Fleming:

Certainly, some big questions for Notre Dame here. I think one of them is, and maybe the foremost is not will Sam Hartman play well, because I think we know what he can be and what he is. The question is, who’s going to be on the seating end of those passes? AT Perry is not walking through that door. Last year, Wake Forest had five guys that Sam Hartman threw to, all of them had 35 or more targets. Notre Dame doesn’t necessarily have that stable at wide receiver. A downfield threat is going to have to emerge for Notre Dame if this passing offense is going to work. Note, a lot of Wake Forest was yards before catch was get the 50/50 ball and keep things moving, not really creating those yards after catch, not hitting guys in stride for those big plays. Need a wide receiver to emerge. Last season, Notre Dame was 81st in passing success rate. 34th in adjusted EPA per pass.

What that’s telling me is they are not very efficient. Not very efficient in the passing game and the only time that they got a successful passing game was when something broke up in downfield. The entire gravity of that offense is going to shift this year. They’re 107th in rush rate over expected last year. 5.2 percentage points more than the average team. They’re going to pass more, they’re going to put more on Sam Harton. Can they consistently generate those intermediate passes? I don’t know. The good news, Navy’s defense was 130th and adjusted EPA per pass last season. They’re going to have their opportunities here to really run it up. I think my number was right at 20 here, so I don’t have a play on this. There’s a lot we’re going to learn about Notre Dame. There’s a lot we’re going to learn about Navy as well. What I’m mostly interested in is, I think the motivation factor for Marcus Freeman understanding we need reps before North Carolina State. We need reps for Ohio State. We’ve got to figure out this offense.

Will they let up like they did last year where it got to halftime and it was pretty one-sided and Notre Dame just packed it in? I don’t think so. I think Notre Dame will score. I think they’ll try to play four quarters regardless of what the game looks like there and really beat up on a Navy defense that finished 124th and adjusted EPA per play. Is going to have to deal with rule changes this year in terms of what their offense can run. Is going to have to deal with a new identity, a new era for Navy. Certainly, like Notre Dame, if I was talking about maybe a team total, maybe if I’m looking at that number was 19, 19 and a half or it was earlier this summer. Right now, I’m mostly just interested in the information I’m going to get from Notre Dame about what their passing downfield attack is going to look like and whether they can get a little more explosive in the run game, not just getting those three to four chunk yards that they need. Can they pop off big runs as well?

Gary Segars:

I’m with you. I think we can expect to see something completely different from Notre Dame in this one. We’re not used to getting this one early in the season. This is not supposed to be the season opener. Typically, this is somewhere right in the middle of the schedule. Kyle, we’ll move over to you with that. Navy, they’ve come out of the gates with a thud in the last three seasons. They lost by 52 to BYU in 2020, by 42 to Marshall in ’21. Last season, no, it wasn’t a blowout, but it was a seven-point home loss to Delaware. This one, it’s in Ireland against the team that Navy typically has spread success against and they’re doing it with the new Head Coach, Brian Newberry, what are you expecting with this one?

Kyle Hunter:

I think it’s hard to know exactly what to expect from the Navy offense. That’s part of the reason it’s hard for me to bet a game like this. I think they’ll throw more but are they going to throw a little bit more? A lot more? We’re talking 15% of their plays were passes last year. Is it going to be 20? Is it going to be 25? I don’t know exactly. I’d like to see before I bet on it. I know Navy is good on defense. That’s going to be tested a lot by Notre Dame. Navy’s best on defense in the front seven. They’re good at stopping the run, not very good at stopping the pass. They’ve never been good at stopping the pass. It’s probably obvious reasons, they don’t see the pass very much in practice.

Maybe they’ll see it a little bit more in practice this year and be slightly better, but their secondary is still their weakness. If you look at Notre Dame, Sam Hartman’s aDOT last year was 12.9. I assume it’s going to come down some in this offense versus what it was last year. How much will it come down? I guess we’ll see. Like Parker said, I think it’s fair to say that Notre Dame’s one biggest weakness is their wide receivers, pass catchers. They don’t even have the tight end that they had last year, obviously. You need somebody to step up there. Thing that interests me, obviously I like totals, eight of the last 10 games between these two teams have been 55 points or higher. Seven of the last 10 have been 60 points or higher.

Even though Navy is a slow-paced team that runs a lot, they’ve had a lot of points in these games. I would lean to the over in this one, but I will say there is some rain in the forecast for this game. A little bit of wind, first weather alert of the year, you’re already in the first game. We’ll keep an eye on that one. I don’t think it’s a sure thing. It’s a clear negative for the over if there is rain and wind, so maybe that’s why that total is coming down a bit. Having said that, it probably doesn’t affect the game as much in a Navy game as it would in some other games. I’ll lean to the over in this one but I want to keep an eye on the weather. I think the spread is incredibly difficult to bet.

Gary Segars:

I’m with you. My numbers have Notre Dame by just ridiculously large number. I’m going to have to figure out why I’m so far off from the current spread. I do feel like Notre Dame has a massive advantage in this even if recent history would tell us that this game is going to be closer than expected. Quick tip on this, Navy, they have only gone under their team total in five of the last 16 games. It’s sitting at 14 and a half over at BetUS. Do with that information what you will. No locks on this one. Let’s go ahead and move to game number two. The UTEP Miners travel to Jacksonville State for the Gamecocks’ first ever FBS conference game. That one is at 5:30 PM Eastern Time. The line currently sits with UTEP favored by one. The total is at 53 and a half on that. UTEP, two and four against the spread on the road last season.

As far as totals go, their road overs went four one and one. Dana Dimel has done a pretty good job of building up this football program from some pretty low depths. On the other side, Rich Rodriguez, of course, former West Virginia and Michigan head coach, Arizona head coach. He took Jacksonville state to a nine and two record in their last year of FCS football last season. These look like two pretty evenly matched teams on paper. Kyle, let me start with you here. Is UTEP maybe too battle-tested for Jacksonville State’s first game as an FBS team, or do you think the Miners are maybe walking into a buzz saw Saturday afternoon at JSU stadium?

Kyle Hunter:

This is a tricky one. I think UTEP is the better team between these two. The question is, this is a huge game for Jacksonville State. They get to host a game right at the beginning of the year. You guys remember James Madison last year, the beginning of the season with MTSU. Now, I’m not saying that’s going to happen in this game, I don’t think it will. This is a good spot for them to get up for a big game. UTEP was just five and seven against the spread last year. I think they’re really strong in the trenches and I think that could be a difficulty for Jacksonville State. Dimel has done a good job with this team. Parker has talked about this some in the past.

I think that partisan for UTEP is underrated. If somebody could catch a pass, he throws downfield pretty well. They drop a lot of those passes. Let’s see if somebody can catch a pass. They were negative five turnover margin last year. Hardison does need to do a little bit better taking care of the football. Dimel says that UTEP’s defensive line is the strength of the team. Jacksonville State’s offensive line has been pretty good and they’ve ran the ball on everybody in FCS and 5.6 yards per carry last year. Can they do it in this game? I would guess probably not. Having said that, they’re going to want to run and I know Zion Webb is back for a seventh year. Seven years is pretty crazy at Jacksonville State.

They want to run the football. Can they do it? I think if you want to bet the side, the biggest question in this game is can Jacksonville State run the football? For me, total has moved up in this game. My lean would’ve been the over. I think that, that ship may have sailed a little bit. You get three-points line move. I think UTEP can hit some of those big plays against an undersized Jacksonville state defense. If you look at the defensive line of Jacksonville State compared to the big guys for UTEP, I think it’s going to be a bit of a mismatch. Rich Rod, good offensive mind, so you probably should be able to get some points from them as well. I would lean UTEP if I had to bet aside here, but it’s a tough game, for sure.

Gary Segars:

I’m with you. UTEP, they were darlings during that 2021 season. They had dynamic wide receiver Jacob Cowing, who’s of course, now in Arizona. They had a pretty good defensive front. Last year, that defense fell off. Kyle, you were talking about whether or not Jacksonville State would be able to run on them. That defense dropped off, they dropped back to five and seven. This year, they’re number 76 in adjusted returning production on defense. They’ve got some awesome key pieces on that defensive line and they got linebacker Tyrice Knight on offense. You mentioned Hardison being back. They’ve also got the stud running back, Deion Hankins, wide receiver Tyrin Smith. They were number 82 PPA per drive on offense last year. My number on this game is UTEP minus 1.3, so I’m right on it. Parker, talk to me about what we don’t really know. What can we take away from Jacksonville state’s roster? Their only FBS game last year was a 54 to 17 beat down by Tulsa. The year before, they upset Florida State on a last second touchdown pass. Is this just a wait and see kind of matchup?

Parker Fleming:

For me with the FCS teams and making the jump compounded with the uncertainty that the transfer portal brings into the landscape of college football generally. I’m flagging a couple of these teams as wait and see. Just don’t want to overstate my edge or what I think here. What my priors on this are that Jacksonville State did run well. The jump from FCS to FBS is going to be so large and that rushing ability is not going to sustain itself. It’s like when a bad SEC team beats up on a G5 team by just running over them. You think, “Okay, well, that really isn’t going to translate to if they play another SEC team. Vanderbilt is not going to put up 500 yards against Arkansas on the ground. You can adjust in that similar way.

That being said, I don’t know that the gap between UTEP and Jacksonville State is huge, is astronomical. I think competitive, I’d be inclined to give them a coaching edge, Jacksonville State that is. I want to see what the lines look like, not just on paper but actually against FBS caliber of offensive and defensive line. Can’t talk enough about Gavin Hardison. Absolute gunslinger. Maybe needs to work on selection like Kyle mentioned, 12% turnover worthy play percentage on his 64 attempts that were 20 plus yards downfield, but 72.3 great. When they’re on, the dude can drop dimes. We just need to figure out maybe putting those in a little bit better situation, maybe a little bit of selection, taking a step forward there.

Absolutely, a guy who can sling it need to see a little bit more out of UTEP’s wide receivers for me to feel confident about their season long projections and where I’ll go from them. Interested in how wide receivers match up with a unit against Jacksonville State that they should dominate just in the sense of athleticism and be able to stretch them vertically. I’m interested to see what Jacksonville’s offensive and defensive lines look at against an interior O-line in a defensive line in UTEP that’s not necessarily the best in FBS but is certainly not the worst. Does give me a little bit of barometer on both sides of the ball for both of these teams. For me, this is a watch and learn situation. Excited for football, but I’m not certain about Jacksonville State. I’m not going to have a play until I learn a little bit more about them.

Gary Segars:

I’m with you. I’m not touching this one. Kyle, tell me very quick, UTEP’s team total is 27 and a half. They went over their team total in the last six games of 2022. Is this potentially a trend that might be worth paying attention to?

Kyle Hunter:

I would like the team total over as one of my favorite plays here. You could argue that’s a better bet than betting UTEP here. Because it would be surprising if Jacksonville State can just shut them down in a game like this.

Gary Segars:

I tend to agree. No locks on this. Maybe like that UTEP team total over, but no official play on this one. We move ahead. Game number three. That’s right, the ESPN primetime game. Jerry Kill in the New Mexico State Aggies, they host Don Brown’s UMass Minutemen, Saturday 7:00 PM Eastern Time. Again, gentlemen, this is the ESPN primetime game of the week. It’s pretty exciting for two coaches in their second year here. New Mexico State currently favored by six and a half points, total of 45 on this. UMass did just announce yesterday that Taisun Phommachanh will be the team’s starting quarterback.

People might remember him when he was the backup at Clemson. He transferred to Yukon last season, couldn’t get on the field there so he is now at UMass. This UMass defense was not bad last season. Number 62 PPA per drive allowed. Number 38 in passing success rate allowed. People didn’t really pass against them though. Over 62% of the snaps that they faced were runs and they were number 98 PPA per rush. Parker, this is an interesting early test. Two wily, old veteran coaches. Kill got a head start at New Mexico State, ended up making a bowl game last season with quarterback Diego Pavia. Tell me what you’re seeing in this one.

Parker Fleming:

Gary, I love that we get our first opportunity to remind everyone to think about selection effects when you see big splits in offense and defensive efficiency. On defense, UMass last year, 27th in passing success rate, 120 first in rushing success rate. Because why would I ever rush against you except in bad situations when I can pass against you with impunity? Which is what people could do against UMass last year. Diego Pavia, certainly a gun slinger candidate this year. I don’t know if he’s earned the crown, but I like what he’s got. I think he’s much better than what people perceive out of New Mexico State. They’re really interested to see how a couple of things on both sides of the ball can translate some of these market fundamentals. Last season, New Mexico State was 55th. Excuse me, 69th in adjusted echo rate on defense, but they were 39th in field position.

They really were pressing and got some help with special teams on that defense. If that field position performance can’t sustain and that defense has to defend shorter fields, how are they going to be able to replicate that performance? Is there going to be any step forward from a defense that ranked a 111th in EPA per play last season? The offense got, to find some balance. Ran way too much last season at a really inefficient clip. They were a 111th in rush rate over expected, that’s 6.4%. More than the average team and they’re 96 in rushing success rate on offense, 118th adjusted in EPA per play on offense. They’ve got to figure out what’s our identity and how can we do it, how can we survive and stay ahead here? The defense was a little bit better than the offense last season for New Mexico State, but that’s not really saying much. Interesting that both of these teams are in a similar position of turning to a veteran coach trying to reestablish these development cycles, get guys in there.

UMass, taking a transfer quarterback. Trying to maybe raise that level up a little bit here. These teams finished 123rd, UMass, and 121st in EPA per play margin last season. I’m not expecting a lot out of the caliber of competition and don’t have a play. I am interested to see how some of these little inconsistencies that might suggest future success can really help. One fun note, UMass was low-key awesome on third and fourth downs. Last season, 38.6%, third and fourth down success was 20th in the nation. What’s funny about that is another selection issue. They were 101st on early downs EPA. The only time they faced third and fourth down is when teams went negative, went back. The third and fourth down success is third and long. Makes it a lot easier for you there. Interested to watch and learn about two programs that are in similar positions and see what UMass can get out of the quarterback position with a transfer.

Gary Segars:

I am the same as you. I would like to see what this UMass offense looks like. I didn’t mention last year New Mexico State won this game, 23 to 13. They were down at the half. It was 13 to 10, UMass. New Mexico State scored six in the third, seven in the fourth and it went away with a 10-point win. My number on this one is around four points in favor of New Mexico State. I might be giving UMass as number 31 returning production a bit too much credit. Kyle, talk to me about what you’re expecting from the Minuteman and the Aggies.

Kyle Hunter:

I was expecting Gary to have a play on New Mexico State here, so I was wrong about that.

Gary Segars:

I do love the Aggies, man. I love them, but I can’t do it. I can’t trust him right now.

Kyle Hunter:

I knew you loved Jerry Kill in that team, but this line move has been massive. I’m really surprised this line has moved so much. Everybody on UMass, a lot of people on the over, we’ve seen some pretty significant groups betting UMass in this game. The Clemson, Georgia Tech transfer quarterback has to be an upgrade for UMass. I mean their quarterbacks had four touchdowns and 14 interceptions last year, so that’s not breaking any massive news or anything. There isn’t a lot of talent around him. They did get a couple of wide receiver transfers in the off season that could help. The UMass defense is good in the secondary, like you guys said, but why pass against them if you don’t have to? I think Jerry Kill is a great coach, very good fundamentals coach. They were top 30 in the nation in tackling grade at PFF last year.

They were also 21st in explosiveness allowed. They didn’t give up big plays. I think they’ll probably be able to keep that up. New Mexico State’s offensive line underrated too. Only 16 sacks allowed last year. 4.63 yards per carry. Physical team. Can UMass hold their own in the trenches? I think that’s a big key to this game. New Mexico State did lose a couple of stars at the linebacker spot. We’ll see if their defense drops off at all. The total’s been bet up a lot. Dog’s been bet heavily. I’m going to lean to New Mexico State at this price. You’re under seven. Is there some kind of shoe to drop that we haven’t seen yet or is this just some market movers taking UMass in a game like this? We’ll see as we get closer to the game, but I don’t know that I trust UMass as much as some other people do.

Gary Segars:

I think a lot of people might’ve just gotten really excited about the quarterback being announced as the starter. That’s my guess. This is the game by the way, last year where Diego Pavia finally took over as the starter, because they were still trying to run Gavin Frakes out there. When they came in, or excuse me, Diego Pavia. When Pavia came in last year, he only had, let’s see, five drives in the second half. One was kneel out to end the game. On those four drives, he went field goal, field goal, punt, touchdown. This is the one where it took off. They won every game for the rest of the season. I fully expect New Mexico State to win but I can’t trust either of them so I’m staying away from it. I might do a little bit of pizza money on New Mexico State. I like the team total at 26. I like going over that but no official play for me on this. We got no locks on this one here.

Quick reminder, the show is free. There’s no paywall here. The best way you can support what we’re doing, click that like button, hit the subscribe button, leave a comment. Let us know your picks or what you think about ours, et cetera. We want to hear from you guys. Also, I see a lot of people in the chat. Julius is here, Bill, Mikey, Lowe, Fox, Fezzik is in here. We want to hear from you. Get your questions in for the Q&A at the end of the show. All right, carrying on. We’re moving to game number four on this one. We might have some plays here. It’s going to be a beautiful 70-degree evening at Snapdragon Stadium on Saturday. Ohio visits San Diego State at 7:00 PM Eastern Time on FS1. Now, Brady Hoke’s Aztecs are currently favored by two over at BetUS. Total sits at 49 right now.

This line opened at four and a half and it’s been bet down this week once it was announced that Rourke is going to start for Ohio. Ohio brings back over 86% of their production from a year ago on offense. That is good for number three in the country. At San Diego State, the defense is being rebuilt a bit. There’s three new faces starting on the defensive line along with a few new pieces in the back A as well. Kyle, I want to start with you on this. Everybody loves a good high-flying offense, but as Parker and I have both mentioned here, sometimes people forget that who a team has played can tell you a lot about or how good they really are. The seven games that Ohio won with Rourke at quarterback last season, the defenses he faced averaged being ranked number 100 in PPA allowed per pass. Tell me how you’re breaking this one down.

Kyle Hunter:

I think it’s interesting. Kurtis Rourke had the single highest PFF grade of any quarterback last year. I think you could have gotten somebody with the trivia question if you had asked who was going to be the highest rated PFF quarterback last year. Now, it is totally fair to point out what Gary said that those defenses were not nearly as good. The fact that he had a PFF grade just barely higher than Drake May and Caleb Williams, he’s certainly a great quarterback, no doubt about that. Rourke had three turnover-worthy plays in his last six starts last year. He has the heart, the height, I should say, and the arm talent of a star, even against better talent, in my opinion. I think he would be very good even in a better system against better talent. He’s definitely going to roast the Mac again this year.

There’s little doubt about that. The question is, what does he do in a game like this? Ohio gets back O’Shaan Allison at the backfield. They have their top two back from last year as well. Allison was out last year. He was a really good running back before that. I think Ohio’s receivers are very good as well. Ohio’s going to put up big numbers on offense this year. The question is you flip over to San Diego State. Mayden is an upgraded quarterback versus what they’ve had. Now, to be fair, and I’ve said this before, an upgrade over what they’ve had in the last few years is pretty easy to reach. The question is, Ryan Lindley is the nuance of offensive coordinator. They’ve talked about throwing the football around a lot. I’m a little bit skeptical about Mayden and whether he can just be a drop back passer all the time type of guy. Because if they just want to throw it around constantly, then it might not work great.

Part of that could be out of necessity, in my opinion. Because San Diego State doesn’t have that running back and great offensive line like they had for many years. We saw them have great running backs consistently. They don’t have that anymore. The Aztecs’ defense has kind of gone from elite to pretty good. I don’t know that I like their long-term path under Brady Hoke. How much can we really trust Brady Hoke? Maybe in a situation like this, better. What I take in a game like this? I think it’s interesting that, and more than three, I would’ve definitely taken Ohio in this game.

We saw this number get steamed multiple times. I think most people knew that Rourke was going to play and then even when it was announced, the line still steamed even more. It’s a tough game to bet at this point because you’re almost down to pick them. We’ll see. The guys are going to have some plays on this one. I think I would lean to the over again in this one. I feel a bit strange leaning to all these overs because usually I’m an under is better. We saw Fezzik give a good stat there in the chat for the unders. 49, I think Ohio’s offense is pretty good, a lot better than what San Diego State’s going to usually see on the other side. Ohio’s defense, not very good.

Gary Segars:

I’m with you. Ohio’s defense is, I mean putrid. Parker, let’s move to you. It looks like a fun matchup between Ohio Head Coach Tim Albin and San Diego State’s Defensive Coordinator, Kurt Mattix. Tell me how you see this one playing out.

Parker Fleming:

I think we’ve got a case of wrong team favorite here. Looking at my numbers and looking at the returning production, especially on offense for Ohio, I’ve actually got Ohio winning this outright. They were 19th in offensive EPA per play last year bolstered by their 14th EPA per pass. San Diego State’s defense, 116th in EPA per play. 90th against the pass in terms of EPA per play and notably really, really even on first and second downs there across all situations. Really, interested to see if with some returning production and potentially a drop-off from San Diego State defense, I think Ohio will score and will pace themselves out ahead of their defense, which was really bad and they’re what? 123rd I think in returning production. 133rd for Ohio, dead last returning production on offense. Or excuse me, on defense. You know what we say about returning production, it’s only as good as the production that’s returning. If they were bad last year, get them out. Flip it over.

Ohio allowed the most air yards last season of any team in the FBS. I would be worried about that. Because like Kyle said, Mayden said that he wants to go deep. That’s what he was working on this year. He also said sometimes we have a lull in practice and that feels like a very bad thing to be saying in August about a passing game that is supposedly going to revolutionize your offense. That again was a 116th in EPA per play and 86th in rush rate over expected. Additionally, only 9% of Mayden’s passes last year were downfield. He had a 23.5% turnover worthy play percentage on that. He did have one 90 graded passing game last year. The rest were in the 30s. He had a 90-grading passing game that was against Fresno State whose offense ranked in the 90s in EPA per play. Speaking about adjusting on the other side. Going to go with the quarterback experience here. Going to go with some positive progression on the defense for Ohio. I’m going to believe that Ohio’s offense is going to score at such a rate that San Diego State’s offense cannot keep up.

Gary Segars:

I’m going to go the opposite of you. That stat from Fez, by the way, for anybody that’s listening to the podcast, he said week zero and week zero and a half, so the Thursday and Friday after. The under has gone 22 and five the last two years. That’s the stat. I’m riding San Diego State. I know there was just a hurricane that came through San Diego. My number makes this closer to six in favor of San Diego State. I trust Kurt Mattix’s defense, even with the new defensive line. The two best secondaries that Ohio played last season were Penn State and Iowa State and they only scored 10 points in each of those. Now, obviously, there was a big time talent discrepancy between those teams. Ohio’s defense, like we have mentioned here, it’s one of the weakest defenses in the country. With the talent that they’ve got on hand, I don’t know that they’ve got a guy that knows how to coach that side of the ball.

I think Mayden and the Aztecs, I think they’re going to be able to score here. I’m laying two with San Diego State at home. Let’s go ahead and go to the locks on this and of course, we disagree. I’m taking San Diego State minus two at BetUS. Of course, my first spread be of the season. Parker on the other hand is going to ride Ohio plus the two. I’m very excited to see how this one’s going to go. I’m going on principle. You can’t go from the East Coast or Central time zone, whatever, over to the West Coast that night against San Diego State. That Aztec defense, they’re going to show up for me. I can feel it. Let’s move ahead. We’ve got three more games that we need to hit on. Game number five, the Vanderbilt Commodores.

They are the first SEC team to open play in the 2023 college football season. Saturday, they’re going to host Timmy Chang’s, Hawaii Rainbow Warriors. These two played last season. It was a 63 to 10 Vandy beat down and Chang’s debut on the island. This year, the line looks a bit different. The doors are currently favored by 18 and the total over at BetUS sits at 55 and a half right now. Vandy was one in five against the spread at home last year. They are three and 10 against the number at home in the last two years under head coach Clark Lea. That includes 0 and three as a home favorite. Hawaii, on the other hand, they went four and two against the spread as a road dog last year.

Parker, let’s go ahead and start with you. Vandy, they went over there two-and-a-half-win total before September was done last year. They snuck out a couple of SEC wins in November over Florida and Kentucky, but they do lose 1,000-yard rusher. Ray Davis, he transferred to Kentucky. Their backup, Patrick Smith, he averaged less than three yards per carry on only 56 rushes. Just about the only thing that Hawaii excelled at on offense last season was rushing success rate and stuff rate allowed, but they lost four of their top six offensive linemen and they’re starting running back, Parson. My number on it is Vandy minus 14. I cannot get last year’s blowout out of my head. How are you breaking this one down?

Parker Fleming:

I’m certainly inclined to believe that what has changed is that Vanderbilt’s gotten another progression on the development cycle on defense and Hawaii is not Gary, I believe, if I’m not mistaken, you have a Hawaii under?

Gary Segars:

Yes. Under three and a half. Even with 13 games.

Parker Fleming:

Even with 13 games. Legitimately worried about Hawaii. 131st in EPA per play margin last season, 109th on offense, 130th on defense when you adjust for opponent. Yes, they did run the ball. 31st in EPA per rush, 73rd in rushing success rate, but 119th in the pass. Gary, what are we going to think about? We’re going to think about selection. They were 30th in rush rate over expected. They did not run unless it was an advantageous situation. Really, were slinging the ball. Throwing the ball 6.9 percentage points more than the average team across all situations. Vanderbilt’s defense, not anything to write home about. They were a little bit better against the run than the past 65th in EPA per rush. 123rd in EPA per pass. What I think the difference here is ultimately, one, a little bit of a talent level. Two, Hawaii’s got to travel. Three Vanderbilt is just going to be able to score.

Hawaii on offense, or excuse me on defense. 125th in echo rate, 87th in points per quality possession. That’s even with the 55th best field position for defenses last season. 127th on early downs for Hawaii in terms of EPA. That early down differential for teams is so predictive of how you’re going to do, they were 127th. Vanderbilt wasn’t great on offense, but they were 83rd against an SEC schedule. I really, really think that Vanderbilt is taking the next step in terms of development cycle. We can talk all off season about what the development cycle is for Vanderbilt versus other teams.

They do have a consistent quarterback and wide receiver duo that I think is substantially underrated with AJ Swan legitimately a dude and I think they’ll be able to score. I think that they’re in a position as a program. They’re not going to get up by three scores and put the pedal on the, or excuse me, put their foot on the brakes. I like Vanderbilt here. I think that just before the show, this moved from 17 and a half to 18. I like it even maybe a point, a point and a half above that as well. I’m going to take Vanderbilt big here. I think they’ll show out again like they did last year. I’m trusting in the Commodores to take another step forward in a very well progressing development cycle.

Gary Segars:

Now, Kyle, let’s go to you. There are some interesting pieces on this Vandy team as Parker was just talking about. I don’t know that opening the season in Nashville with the home game against Stanford just six days later is exactly ideal for Hawaii. This line, it’s gone back and forth. It opened at 18 and a half, dropped back to 16 and a half. It’s back up to 18 now. It was just at 17 yesterday. I know there are some sharp guys that are on Hawaii in this one, but what do you see going on here?

Kyle Hunter:

Vanderbilt wins 63, 10 last year and that was despite going one for five on fourth down. They busted some big plays, certainly. This is a team in Hawaii that I think the gap here is pretty massive from SEC to bottom of the mountain west. Any SEC team, too. Excuse me. It’s a Vanderbilt team that is an underrated quarterback in Swan. I expect some pretty good play-making from him. Hawaii was second worst in the nation in tackling grade last year at PFF. I think that shows up again in this one. If you can’t tackle and you’re up against a good offensive front, I say good offensive front and I mean good compared to what they’re used to playing. I think it spells trouble for Hawaii defense.

I think Hawaii offensively will be a bit better this year. That’s why I’m not going to take the spread. I’m going to go here with Vandy team total over because I trust Vandy to score. I don’t know how many points they’re going to give up. I think Hawaii could score a bit more than they did last year. Obviously, I lean to the over for the game in general too if I like that. I’m going to take Vandy team total over 37 because I think the thing that I like best in this is for Vanderbilt to score plenty of points against that Hawaii defense.

Gary Segars:

I think I’m with you on that and I’m not going to ride it. Andrew jumped in the chat. He said are you guys worried about Vandy Stadium still being under construction and will it affect Vandy against the spread or the total? Hawaii has been playing in a high school stadium. I don’t think it necessarily matters. The stadium is not going to make any difference on this game. Let’s go ahead and get to the picks here. Parker is going to ride with Vandy minus 18. Kyle, of course, likes the Vanderbilt team total over 37. Those are the picks on this one. I said locks earlier. I’m probably going to say locks again. We all know I feel like you guys, you’ve got a high enough IQ to know that there are no locks. We just tell you what we like in these games. These are not locks. We ain’t guaranteeing nothing. Even if we do, I mean it’s a free show. What are you going to do?

Quick reminder before the last two games, drop your questions in the chat. I do see multiple Q&A questions in here. We appreciate you guys. Nate, Andrew, Corey, et cetera. Like the video. Of course, subscribe to the channel. I see over 200 people watching right now and not nearly as many likes. Hit that like button. It looks like this. Go ahead and do that. If you’re not watching the show live, you can toss your picks and your thoughts in the comments. We’re going to do our best to respond to as many comments as possible once the show is over. Throughout the week, we’ll keep the conversation going over there. All right, moving along. Game number six and we are moving back out west. The USC Trojans, along with Heisman winner, Caleb Williams. They host the San Jose State Spartans at 8:00 PM Eastern Time Saturday. It’s available to the tiny segment of the population that has access to the PAC 12 network.

The line sits at USC minus 30 and a half. The total is now up to 66 and a half. Latest numbers of course, at BetUS, that total got steamed up a bit. It was 64 and a half just yesterday. San Jose State, two and four against the spread as a road dog over the last two seasons. USC in their first season under Lincoln Riley, they were five and two against the spread as a home favorite. Now, that includes three and one against the spread against non-conference opponents. The Trojans were 30-point favorites twice last season. They covered both games easily. Kyle, starting with you, this line looks huge. San Jose State lost a lot of talent off their defense, especially that front seven. Even still, betting a 30-point favorite can be a little bit daunting. Talk to me about this total, maybe. USC’s final seven games in 2022, they all went over the total even though all were 61 points or more. Is there any value on the 66 and a half, maybe?

Kyle Hunter:

Boy, it’s a hard total to bet, Gary. You want to bet 66 and a half with the new rules. I really don’t. Do you want to bet under with USC? I definitely don’t want to do that either. If I had to bet every game on the board this weekend except for one, this would be the one I would pass on. San Diego State or I mean San Jose State had a lot going on last year. Disappointing end of the season, but definitely a tragedy in there. Brandon is a good coach. We know that. This is no longer the Vonage strong defensive front that San Jose State’s had in the past, like Gary mentioned. USC’s offense should be able to do whatever they want to do in a game like this. Caleb Williams is fantastic. The skilled position talent around him is great.

If there’s a relative weakness for USC on the offense, I would say it’s the offensive line. I don’t think that shows up in a game like this. Big question mark here is what will the USC defense do? Will they take a big step forward this year? They need to, if they want to be a national title worthy. They constantly let teams back in at last year after having big leads. Backdoor possibility still there, especially with 30 and a half. This is a big number. I can’t bet this one. I don’t know if you guys have anything you like here, but this would be a total pass for me.

Gary Segars:

I tend to believe with you. We’ll move over to Parker on this. Everybody knows the story with USC. Number one PPA per drive on offense. They were number 114 on defense. How was their defense able to help them win 10 games? They were number eight in the country in takeaways, they average two per game. USC number one in turnover margin last season. That was the story of their season. San Jose State was right there with them. They were number 12 in turnover margin. Now, there’s obviously a reason USC is favored by this much. There’s a massive talent difference here. I love the Spartans coach, Brent Brennan. Of course, Kyle just brought him up. This seems like a pretty tall task for them. What are you seeing in this one?

Parker Fleming:

I think one from a meta lens here, this is a game that I’m circling as, hey, we’re going to learn about how the clock rules might affect some of these teams. Because you’ve got number seven in rush rate over expected, San Jose state. Number 20 in rush rate over expected, USC. Both slinging the ball. Absolutely, want to throw it a ton. We’ll get some info about pace here. I think Kyle’s comments about the backdoor cover are really interesting to me. Because San Jose State, 23rd in offensive success rate, seventh in the past, only 116th in the rush. As we mentioned, they’re not running the ball very often. 37th EPA per pass. They can move the ball. They can’t extend with Cordeiro.

In a game like this, if we’re talking about motivation in the second half, what we’re talking about is what are you playing for? Does San Jose State believe they can win this game? Sure. Why would you step on the field if you don’t believe that you can? In reality, what they’re playing for is, let’s get some refs against high quality competition and let’s get some wins. Not a win necessarily, but some wins. You get a big, big slate here. USC really incentivized to just take care of business and pull back. Betting a big spread. My wariness about that is exacerbated here because I think there’s very clearly a narrative and motivation factor for San Jose State on the other side of the ball with an offense that frankly can move the ball pretty well.

Gary Segars:

Chevan Cordeiro, the transfer from Hawaii, he was pretty good last year. You brought up the numbers. Their team total, San Jose State, it’s 17 and a half. I think the only team that USC kept under 17 and a half last year was what? Rice and Colorado, maybe. I don’t know. My early number on this one is USC minus 37. That number is way too big for my blood, so I’m staying out of this one. I don’t see any locks on this, so we will move ahead to our last game before we jump into the Q&A. Again, toss in any questions that you got. Another battle of second year head coaches, Mike MacIntyre’s FIU Panthers head to Ruston. They’re going to take on Sonny Cumbie and the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs.

This is a conference USA battle at 9:00 PM Eastern Time on CBS Sports Network. Louisiana Tech currently an 11-point favorite, a total of 58 and a half over at BetUS. FIU was able to get a 42 to 34 win at home against the Bulldogs in double overtime last season. But Louisiana Tech won the previous four meetings between these two schools. Louisiana Tech four, 0 and one against the spread at home last season. They were three and one against the spread as a favorite. FIU on the other hand, two and four against the spread as a road dog. Just a heads-up, something I want to toss out here. The total is eight and 0 to the over. In the last eight Louisiana Tech home games, it’s gone over in the last three meetings between these two.

Louisiana Tech games have gone over in 16 of the last 22. Parker, let’s start with you here. Boise State quarterback, Hank Bachmeier and Baylor running back, Sqwirl Williams, they both transferred in. Wide receiver, Smoke Harris, looks to be able to stretch the field for Louisiana Tech. On the other side, Florida International. They’ve got quarterback, Grayson James back, along with the wide receivers, Kris Mitchell and Dean Patterson. They both averaged over 15 yards per reception last year. I expect both offenses to be able to roll here. I’m not seeing much from either of the defenses. Neither offense was consistent, but both defenses were consistently bad. Tell me what you’re seeing in this one.

Parker Fleming:

Jason Grames is his weekend alter ego.

Gary Segars:

I love that. Just wear the mustache. It’s Joey.

Parker Fleming:

Exactly. Two teams with a lot of returning production. They weren’t good last year. 130th in EPA per play for FIU. 116th for Louisiana Tech. FIU keeping the band together. Both top 30. I don’t know the exact number off the top of my head. I think FIU is top 20 in returning production overall. Both of them, FIU taking that next step development forward. They’re building something down there in Miami. They got a good facilities update that Michael Vick tweeted about. I don’t know, you got a lot of momentum going in Miami there for them. Louisiana Tech, obviously bringing in some of the transfers, trying to agglomerate some talent. Parallel teams, different paths, which is really interesting to me. I expect both offenses to be substantially better than where they finished last year. Louisiana Tech, 90th. Florida International, 127th.

Gary, you’re right, both of these defenses are abysmal. 114th and EPA per play for FIU. 119th for Louisiana Tech. One thing that I’m interested to see in this game, which if gun to my head had to pick, I would slightly lean towards FIU to cover because the defenses are so bad. I think this could get shootout-y. One thing I’m really interested in, Louisiana Tech, 48th in echo rate last season in terms of generating quality possessions, but they were 105th in points per quality possession. Can they start scoring touchdowns when they get into plus territory instead of kicking field goals? Can they generate more consistent explosive plays? That’s what I’m interested in.

That will be progress for me with Williams, with Smoke, with Bachmeier. You’d like to think that they’ll be able to pull some of that out. With the defense being what it was last season and what I expected to be this season, they’re going to have to score a lot. They’re going to have to finish those drives. Watching that. Because Florida International, not terrible last season, 97th in allowing quality possessions on defense, but 46th in points per quality possession. That’s a good encouraging sign for the program. When the field got shortened, they were able to blow up a little bit on defense. Who’s going to be able to dictate what happens in those scoring opportunities for Louisiana Tech? That’s what I’m watching for this game to learn a little bit about both of these teams.

Gary Segars:

You’ve mentioned hype for that FIU program. Same thing going on with Louisiana Tech. There’s a lot of love for what Sonny Cumbie is doing here. Kyle, over to you. Sonny Cumbie likes to play fast. This team went three and nine last year, but there’s a lot of love for them to maybe win the conference this year. He likes to play fast and so does David Yost, of course, the FIU offense coordinator. He was the OC with Matt Wells at Utah State and Texas Tech. These two teams, number 29 and number 19 in plays per game. They were number 33 and number 13 in pass play rate on offense. I expect them to do the same thing here. What do you see happening in this matchup?

Kyle Hunter:

I’m a bit torn on FIU because I think MacIntyre is a good coach. He’s likely to coach these guys up over time. They at a pretty big talent disadvantage throughout the course of the season. This team was 123rd in the nation in yards per play margin last year. MacIntyre is known as a defensive guy, but their talent on defense is pretty weak. FIU’s offensive line was really bad last year, a 130th at PFF and run blocking grade 125th in pass blocking grade. LA Tech, a team definitely much higher on that’s accounted for in the point spread. Crosby is out for this game, which does hurt them some, LA Tech’s running back. Hank Bachmeier disappointed at Boise State. I think he is in a much better spot here to have success.

The kind of talent that he’s playing with and then the talent that he’s playing against compared to what he was playing against there at Boise State Conference USA, way, way down as we talked about before. I think this will be a good fit, good depth, that wide receiver for LA Tech. Shelton from Miami of Ohio is a good ad in the backfield as well that helps with their depth. LA Tech’s defense though, just atrocious against the run. FIU, usually not good running football. They probably will accidentally run the football well in this one, 6.12 yards per carry given up last year by Louisiana Tech. The biggest edge here for me is the Louisiana Tech passing attack versus the FIU secondary. I think Louisiana Tech team total over definitely intrigues me. I do think FIU will score a decent amount as well based on that Louisiana Tech defense. I definitely lean to the over in this game.

Gary Segars:

I’m there. Look, I’m the only one that’s got an official play on this, but I’m going to ride that trend just like Kyle was talking about. Let’s put it on the screen here. I think these two defenses are bad. I think the offense is going to be able to put up points. Give me the over 58 and a half. I love this. I expect these two to score just a ton of points. Over 58 and a half. I know what Fez was saying in the chat. I know. That 22 and five means that there were five that went over. I think this is going to be one of them. I’m going to roll with the over 58 and a half. I love what they’re doing on offense in both of these spots. I see Corey jumped in. Corey Montgomery in the chat. He said, “People don’t like hitting the thumbs up button, apparently.” We just hit 100. Keep hitting that like button. There’s way more of you watching than have actually liked it, so make sure you do that. Like the video, subscribe to the channel.

If you can’t watch live for whatever reason or you just prefer the audio version of the show, you can always find us on your favorite podcast app. Search for the BetUs Football Show. All right, this is our favorite part of every live show. It is time for the Q&A. Let’s go ahead and jump in. Question number one from Jack Hammond. He said, “What sites do you guys use to get your historical data?” Most times I’m going to go back through either Phil Steel or you search some of the other ones. Odd Shark, Covers has some. I mean there’s a bunch of sites. If you search in Google and just say trends for whatever, it’s going to pop up. I look through and then you have to go back and double check against your numbers. Make sure you got the right ones. Kyle, what about you? What do you go back and look through?

Kyle Hunter:

There’s a lot of different ones. I use Bet Labs when I look up the trends and long-term angles where I can run the queries, save some time. Certainly, there’s many ways to do it. CFB Stats is a site that I use a lot just for stats. College football data is good as well. Like you said, Covers has some of them if you don’t want to take too long to look them up, but then you just want to make sure and check that they’re okay. Obviously, as we’ve said before, be careful that the trend or stat is actually pertinent because it doesn’t matter if somebody is four and 0 in their last four Tuesday night games or something like that.

Gary Segars:

You’re 100% right on that. Killer Sports by the way, if you learn SQDL, that can be pretty useful. I don’t know that they updated much last season but I’m starting to mess around with it. It looks like it’s been updated, so we’ll see. Parker, what about you? Obviously, cfb-graphs.com, but what else for you?

Parker Fleming:

I don’t even know there’s something historical up on there right now, so don’t go looking around. We’ll see if that gets up. I don’t know. If I’m really interested, I have a spreadsheet of just saved lines and totals and I will go back and get the games and do it myself. I don’t know. Generally, I lean towards, I think a lot of the times when I’m asking about a spread, it’s less informative. A historical trend to me is less informative and more like the team on weeknights that wears green is seven and 0 when the temperature is above 52 or whatever. I just want to push against that line of thinking. I don’t really look up a ton of that kind of stuff. We all just Google, like you said Gary, like “Hey, what’s Matt Wells against the spread?” Look and be like, “Oh yeah, he’s 32%. That’s why Texas Tech is really unhappy with him is they’re below expectations.”

Gary Segars:

Exactly. Next question, Bill jumped in. If you don’t cover the Iowa game, please let me know your thoughts. Well, Iowa is not playing until next week. We might cover it. We’ll see. He said, “Yesterday I got it at minus 23 and a half.” He said, “Five minutes later it went to 25 and now 26.” It got steamed because Kate McNamara was announced as hopeful, from what I understand. At least that’s how I saw it. As soon as that news came out, it looked like everybody jumped back on it. Utah State has not been. Blake Anderson, he ain’t mention words. He is telling you right now with all the stuff that he said in camp that they’re not going to be very good. They took a ton of losses in the portal and whatnot and that they’re not going to be very good. Kyle, you got a feel on Iowa minus 23 and a half maybe what happened with up to 26?

Kyle Hunter:

It’s hard to lay that many points with Iowa because you don’t know how many points are going to be scored in the game in general. I agree with you Gary, that it seems like Anderson is being pretty transparent about the fact that his team is going to struggle. I think Anderson is a good coach and his team will improve by the end of the year, so you’d probably rather bet against them at the beginning of the season than you would at the end of the season. 23 and a half, I could see it. It’s getting too high for me now.

Gary Segars:

I think this is one of those games where they are going to want to run up the score because they know they’ll be able to.

Kyle Hunter:

It’s true.

Gary Segars:

Because don’t forget, Brian Ferran needs them points in his back pocket. Parker, Utah State, are you a Cooper Legas guy or Cooper Legas or however you pronounce the name?

Parker Fleming:

I don’t know. Honestly, I’m okay saying I didn’t not have a good read on Utah State last year. I feel like every time I thought they were dialed in, they went and did something crazy back and forth. I know with Legas they were trying to run a little bit more. The styles might’ve been different and I might’ve thrown it off, but I don’t know. I agree Gary, my lean would be towards believing what Blake Anderson is saying that Utah State’s going to have an issue. I do think it still remains to be seen if that points per game consideration is going to dramatically change Iowa’s behavior or not. I could see a world where they say, “No, we’re going to keep doing what we’re doing and it’s going to work out. Trust the process.” Not, “Hey, let’s score a million on a G5 team and try to boost that total up.” Which would be the logical thing to do, but I don’t know if I expect Iowa to do anything logical ever.

Gary Segars:

You’re probably right. There’s been some information with Iowa’s defensive line I think this morning, where one of their biggest defensive linemen, and I forget the name already. He’s apparently suspended for the season. All that gambling stuff that was going on. Who knows? Next question up, Fox Moldar jumped in. “What are your top week zero prop bets?” I guess the first one would be the team total over for Vandy. I guess that would be a prop bet. Kyle, are there any player props or anything?

Kyle Hunter:

I haven’t seen them, if there are.

Gary Segars:

I’m looking at San Jose State and USC. Right now, we’re keeping it normal. There’s halves and quarters. There’s no player props right now. Typically, those player props come out later in the week, so we’re not going to have a ton of them on here.

Parker Fleming:

I know that Gary, we did that for the national championship last year and had a lot of fun and did decently and that was interesting. What I’ll say is I’ll plug the Shorts on YouTube, which I’m a boomer, I don’t fully understand what this is. If you go to our YouTube page and you click Shorts, there is a couple of videos from us a week that are short videos. Player props could probably fit in really nicely to like, “Hey, it’s Thursday afternoon. Let me record this really quickly.” I’ll say I don’t know anything about player props right now, but if I was going to do player props, that’s probably where I’d put it.

Gary Segars:

That’s probably a pretty good idea. Also, follow the guys on Twitter and of course, me on TikTok. Apparently, Elon does not like me but we’ll figure that out later. Room 44 Bets jumped in. “Kyle and Parker, are there any over under adjustments for the new rules?” We’ve been over that a little bit this summer. You can go back and watch some of those but anything that y’all want to put a bow on? Parker, you want to start us off?

Parker Fleming:

The only thing that I will say to people about this is that I have seen a lot of back of napkin math about the intensive margin of all right, how many fewer plays we’re going to get per second? Because fewer seconds, so fewer plays. I don’t think that’s misguided and I think it’s an okay first attempt. I think you have to consider the extensive margin and the intensive margin. You have to think about how teams are going to change their run pass behavior knowing that the clock situation is there. How they’re going to change their clock management? I will say let’s learn. We’re going to learn what that looks like. As we’re considering, I would think less about fewer number of plays and I would think more about how our team’s going to handle those situations right before the late situations knowing that the clock is going to matter a little bit more. That’s second to third last to drive, five minutes left in the second quarter. Are we going to see teams behaving differently then, knowing that time is going to be compressed a little later on?

Gary Segars:

I’m very interested in that. Kyle, did that kind of wrap it up for you as well?

Kyle Hunter:

I think it’s easy to guess how many plays less there will be. You could say six or seven less plays per game is probably a good guess. I think I agree with what Parker said too, that teams may play differently because of the new rules. If you’re just putting this broad based, paint it all the same, you’re probably going to miss something. While I think totals will be across the board 5% or something lower than what they were last year as far as what the market has them at now compared to what they would’ve last year. I think there’s going to be specific cases where they shouldn’t be that much lower. It’s certainly going to be justified in other spots. I will say this, week zero, I want to pay very close attention to how many plays are in each game and what the new rules mean and let’s come back and talk about that next week.

Gary Segars:

I like that. I like that idea. R-bone jumped in. He said, “Favorite two-leg parlay from the seven teams, all props and everything on the table.” This feels like a good time to go ahead and reiterate, it is never a good idea to parlay. You’re putting yourself at a disadvantage. We’re trying to educate you guys on this, but we understand. You’re going to go buy a lottery ticket at some point. Why not do the same thing with this? It’s the same stuff. If we had to pick two, I would take the over in Florida International and Louisiana Tech and I would take San Diego State minus two. That would be my parlay. Kyle, do you have any two that you really like or are we just going to go with the probably not a good idea to parlay these?

Kyle Hunter:

Well, I wouldn’t put much money on a parlay, I’ll say that. It better be a very small amount of your bankroll. I would say Vandy team total over and probably LA Tech team total over is my second one.

Gary Segars:

Parker, what about you?

Parker Fleming:

I only have two and any money I’m going put on, to put Ohio plus two and Vanderbilt minus 18 in the same bet, I would rather just split it and bet them individually. I think I’m warming to parlays of the idea of if you were limited and needed to be really, really consistent about, hey, can I actually bet all of these things? That’s not happening too. That’s not the case. There is no lottery ticket. If there was an easy lottery ticket, it would get bet and it wouldn’t exist anymore. Focus on your angles. Focus on trusting the process. Focus on a small win every week rather than wasting your money trying to hit it big when you can be making time and effort towards increasing your bankroll slowly, being responsible with that. Trusting your process, refining your process and accumulating small wins.

Gary Segars:

ROI is the name of the game. Andrew Schroeder jumps in. “Kyle, how do you factor in garbage time points into your totals throughout the season?” You want to take a stab at it?

Kyle Hunter:

That’s a complicated question so I’ll try to keep it quick. I’m a simple person and I’ll say that I’ve kind of said before that I’m a mixture of some handicappers are all like, “I want to be only numbers based and my model spits out this and this is what I bet I don’t care about anything else.” Some people are, “I watch a game, I understand the feel of the game, I don’t need any numbers.” I would lean toward the numbers, but I also do want to have some feel. My numbers are what they are. I don’t adjust them. I don’t have a way to spit them out to say, “Okay, there’s going to be this many garbage minutes so that will do this to the total.”

Having said that, I know what the trends say as far as if it spreads minus 28 and you’ve got a team that doesn’t run up the score and my total is this. I’m going to be more likely to bet an under than I am bet an over. It’s one of those things where I take it on a case-by-case basis. I don’t have this amazing model that some people do. Parker is a lot smarter than me when it comes to coding and things like that, but this is something I take into effect but I don’t have a perfect way of answering that question as far as exactly what I can do with garbage time.

Gary Segars:

I feel like you answered it pretty well. I think he just wanted to know how you do it and I think you nailed that one. Nate Rogers jumps in. He said, “What’s up guys? I was wondering about parlaying Notre Dame, Vandy USC first halves. What do y’all think?” Again, parlays.

Parker Fleming:

We Need a buzzer. We need a buzzer, Gary.

Gary Segars:

Notre Dame, first half. You know what? I don’t know what the current spread is but I will see. Notre Dame maybe could get up early. That might be a good first half to look at. Vandy, also. These are all games that we kind of expect to be blowouts first half. Typically, once you get rolling into a season, that’s when you would bet first halves. However, it is week zero. There’s going to be some rust. I’m a little wary about first half bets, especially in week zero, week one. Kyle, what do you feel on first half bets?

Kyle Hunter:

If it’s a massive mismatch and I think that coach is going to lay off in the second half, I could see it. Of those, I don’t know. Again, I don’t like parlaying very much. I think USC first half makes some sense because of the talent disparity and their ability to give back some of those and the backdoor cover could be there. Vandy, maybe in the first half. I’ve seen some people in the chat say something about Vandy first quarter. I don’t do a lot with first quarter bets, but that makes some sense too. I would not parlay any of those personally, though.

Gary Segars:

I see Peter Media had jumped in the chat. “Please, don’t mislead people by saying that parlay is bad.” He said, “Tell that to the people that won $50,000 parlays.” I’m with you. We know what the number are.

Parker Fleming:

If you’re winning $50,000 parlays consistently, what are you doing talking to me on YouTube? Come on, man.

Gary Segars:

It’s just wild. Let’s see. Team 100 jumped in. He said, “Gary, what happened to you on Twitter?” He said, “Last time I talked to you, you tried saving me a thousand that I lost on Caleb Williams in TCU.” I don’t remember that. I try and give people the best advice possible. I don’t know what happened on Twitter, I’ve got no idea. I’m @garywce over there. I am expecting to be unsuspended at some point. I legitimately have no idea what happened. I just woke up one morning and I was suspended, so who knows? Now, you can find me on Instagram and TikTok and we’re just going to see what happens over there. I have no idea how to work that stuff. It’s all video. I like being able to type on it. I do well on the video stuff over here, but it is what it is. Let’s get out of here. Let’s go on and look at the best bets that we have for today. Parker, I’ll let you go ahead and start us off.

Parker Fleming:

Two plays here on the side for the first week of week zero. I’m going to go Ohio plus two. Think we’ve got a wrong team favorite situation there and I’m going to take Vanderbilt minus 18. Expect big things out of the Commodores against Hawaii in a tune-up game.

Gary Segars:

I think that Parker is disrespecting the Aztecs and I’m going to take San Diego State minus two. I think that Kurt Mattix’s defense is going to show up for this one. I’m also going to take the over in FIU and Louisiana Tech over 58 and a half. Kyle, what you got for us?

Kyle Hunter:

I’m going to take the Vanderbilt team total over, I believe it is 37 now as well. I will take Vandy team total over thinking that the Commodores have a good time on offense again

Gary Segars:

I just looked at the number. It is still sitting at 37, so you can still get that over at BetUS. All right, gentlemen, that is going to wrap it up for us. We’re going to be back again right here on Tuesday, August 29th, 1:00 PM Eastern Time to start breaking down week one. Set your reminders, put it on your calendars. That way, you can join us live. You can be a part of the conversation. Thank you again to everybody that tuned in. If you’re still watching, go ahead and hit that like button one more time for us. Don’t unclick it. If you haven’t clicked it, click it. Make sure you’re good. We’ve already talked a lot about with the week one games. Go back, take a look at what we thought about week one over a month ago and make sure and leave your comments.

We want to know your opinions on these games. We’ll always do our best to comment back, make sure that we keep the conversation going. All right, as always, you can follow the guys on Twitter Parker is @statsowar. Kyle is @kylehunterpicks. You can follow me on Instagram and TikTok. I’m @garywce. Make sure, keep an eye on the latest odds, of course, over at betustv.com/odds. I think that’s it. With that said, let’s get out of here. For BetUS, where the game begins. God bless college football and we’ll see you all again next week.

 

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