Welcome in to The BetUS College Football Show, and gentlemen, that’s right. We have college football this month. This is another early preview for week one of the season. So, we’ve got eight games that we are going to discuss. Before I do all of that, let me go ahead and tell you visit our sportsbook website, like the video, subscribe to the channel, and hit the notification bell so that whenever we go live. This season, I can go ahead and confirm, we are going live on Tuesdays and Wednesdays at 1:00 PM Eastern time. Now, like the video, like I said. We also have, excuse me, a podcast that you can subscribe to. It’s the BetUS Football Show. Go ahead and subscribe to that as well. Let me introduce the experts, the guy, or the guys that actually know what they’re talking about, if I can get the words out of my mouth, of course. We’ll start on the left side. Our analyst, our numbers guy, the numerical guru, as I call him. You can follow him on Twitter at @statsowar, Parker Fleming. Parker, how are you? Gary, doing great, man. Season’s right around the corner. I’ve been up to my eyeballs in spreadsheets and data and building some tools and some resources to make sure we’re getting good predictions, good projections this fall. So, pretty excited for things to get rolling, and man, we’ve got a lot to talk about today. Oh, you have certainly got that right. On the right side of your screen, our award winning handicapper, professional handicapper, Kyle Hunter. You can follow him on Twitter at @KyleHunterPicks. Kyle, how’s everything with you? Going good, guys. We had so much fun the first time with these early previews. We might as well do it again, right? You most certainly have that right. We do have some interesting games that we’re going to get into, and why don’t we just go ahead and hop into it? Why leave the people waiting? Let’s dive into the first game. It’s going to be a Thursday night game, September 1st, 8:00 PM Eastern Time on Fox. We have Penn State favored by three with a total of 54 and a half going … Ah, excuse me. I see the graphic here. We’re going to swap it up. We’re going to swap it up. We’re going to Central Michigan. Central Michigan at Oklahoma State. Let’s change this thing around. Oklahoma State’s favored by 21 here. The total is 58. These two teams played in 2015 and 2016. This is going to be a lot of fun, I think, because personally, I am high on the Chippewas this year. Look, Central Michigan won in Stillwater back in 2016, 30 to 27. Crazy hook and ladders final play there. Could this game get crazy with Oklahoma State losing so much on the defensive side last year and leaning on the quarterback, Spencer Sanders? Looking at Oklahoma State, they did hire Derek Mason this off season. So, maybe the defense continues in a good way, but you do lose a lot of experience here. You’re definitely losing the linebacker, Malcolm Rodriguez, along with six other defensive starters. I think that’s going to be huge. Parker, I’m going to start with you first on this one. You know how much I love Central Michigan and what they’re doing. Right? Daniel Richardson is there, Lew Nichols, the running back. I love what they’re doing. Give me your thoughts on this matchup. Yeah. So, this is a really, really fun matchup for a couple reasons. You get some good early season tests and will learn a lot about these two teams. Central Michigan is definitely on my list. They’re returning their defensive coordinator, they’re returning their quarterback, returning the head coach, and then returning one of the highest volume backs in the nation in Lew Nichols from last season. So, their team, they hired Paul Petrino in as their offensive coordinator. Should be a lot more fun on offense, even as they were pretty decent last year. I had their offense at a top 50 opponent adjusted offense in terms of per play efficiency, which for a MAC school is just very impressive. Had some things to deal with on the defensive side of the ball. But they have a rushing floor that I think is higher than a lot of teams in the nation. They can put anything together in this passing game. They’re going to be a really, really fun MAC team. On the flip side, if we’re looking at Oklahoma State, there are a lot of questions here. They were seventh in opponent adjusted echo margin last year in terms of how often they got a quality possession relative to how often they allowed it, and 14.3% of the plays on defense for Oklahoma State ended in a sack or a scramble. That was the most in college football by a lot. This is a very disruptive defense. They’re losing Jim Knowles, but they still have just an absolute stacked line. The issue for me plug in this game is Oklahoma State has started slow historically. You remember last year against Missouri State, they won 23 to 16 and in 2020, they also had a slow start, I think, against Southern Illinois, or Tulsa, excuse me. So, Oklahoma State starts slow. They’ve got some questions on defense. The kicker here for me is that last year, Oklahoma State’s offense showed that they could exploit weaknesses really well. They’re going to have Brennan Presley and Jayden Bray’s going to take over that outside role for them. They’re going to have two wide receivers that I don’t think Central Michigan can cover. 21 points is a lot here to start the season for Oklahoma State, and especially with the turnover they’re going to have on defense, and they’re going to have to find some things. But you can’t count out this explosive offense, especially with this very big talent imbalance that they have against AAA MAC defense, who should be better than last year, but isn’t making people shake in their boots in terms of pass defense. Most certainly. I look at this and I wonder if Gundy gets back to the old gunslinging ways because I think that the offense did not have to take as many risks last season, having such a good defense, and this year, maybe you don’t lean as much on the defense and you let the offense take some chances and expect a little more explosive plays. Kyle, let’s move over to you on this. All the stuff that Parker talked about as far as numbers, I’m a little concerned with Central Michigan because they ran the ball 54% of the time last year and they were only number 80 in rushing PPA, predicted points added. Even with Lew Nichols and whatnot, I wonder if that defensive line for Oklahoma State is going to be able to stymie those guys. Give me your thoughts here. Yeah. Both of these teams are teams that I’d rather bet on than bet against. I don’t like betting against Mike Gundy. He’s won over 60% of his games against the spread in his career, and McElwain’s 22 and 11 against the spread at Central Michigan. I think McElwain’s an underrated coach in general. I know he had one rough period there at Florida, but Central Michigan’s not Florida. So, I think this is a well coached team. He’s better than he’s given credit for being. I have two main questions for Central Michigan. How much are they going to miss Pimpleton. The guy was a good player. Definitely a good play maker, for sure. Can the offensive line be as good? They lost the second and third round NFL draft pick. They really need to be good on the offensive line because their passing game isn’t going to be great. They need to be able to run the ball. Nichols is a beast. I think Kobe Lewis is a really good backup as well for Central Michigan, really good running backs. They’re going to lean on them as much as they possibly can. When handicapping Central Michigan games this year, the first thing you say is can they run on the opposing defensive front? In this game, Oklahoma State’s not as good on the defensive front is last year, but they’re going to be very good. I think Mason was a good defensive coordinator hire. Not saying they’re going to be as good as they have been, but certainly a good defense. I think Sanders was disappointing, Spencer Sanders, until last year. He had a breakout season. What do we make of him this season? Do they have the wide receivers to expose Central Michigan’s weak corners? I think Central Michigan is not going to be very good in pass defense. Oklahoma State probably exposes that some here. To me, this is a game where Central Michigan’s going to want to run if they get behind. I don’t think they can throw very well in this game. The spread looks pretty good here. I think, like I said, both of these teams are teams that I’d rather bet on than bet against. I feel the exact same way. My line on this was actually Oklahoma State -17, so slightly into Central Michigan. But obviously, we still have all of fall camp to go through. We’ll get there when we get there. Let’s go ahead and move to the next game, the one that I tried to start with, and that is Penn State heading to Purdue, West Lafayette, Thursday, September 1st, 8:00 PM Eastern Time on Fox here. Roster strength is a pretty big advantage for Penn State in this game. Returning production seems negligible with these two. Penn State favored by three in this game on the road used at -120, and the total sits at 54 and a half. Now, the line opened at three and the total was 56 and a half. So, early betters expecting not as many points as maybe the early total may have suggested. Sean Clifford, I think, is the big catalyst here, right? Second year with offensive coordinator, Mike Yurcich, the first time he’s had the same OC for two straight seasons. The defense has a different voice for the first time in the James Franklin era, and that is Manny Diaz. What is this defense going to look like? Let’s move over to the running back side of this. They were putrid running the football last year, and this year, they bring in Noah Singleton, five star running back, should start immediately, I would imagine. I think the running game’s going to be better. I think Penn State’s going to be better. I know that we could talk about Aidan O’Connell forever, and we will. We’ll get there. Kyle, I’m going to start with you on this. I think this is a massive game. It’s a huge swing game for both teams. Either one of them you don’t want to start 0-1, obviously. But you go in, get a big road win. We saw Penn State do that at Wisconsin last year. Purdue, really good, but you lose Milton Wright in the off season due to academics, you lose David Bell, you lose George Karlaftis, some big time guys, and then of course, you lose Brad Lambert, the defensive coordinator. I’m curious what to expect from Purdue this season. I think good things are coming. But what is the ceiling on this team? Kyle, we’ll start with you. I was going to start off by saying I think Lambert’s a big loss for the defense. I think he was a really good defensive coordinator. They returned seven guys on defense, but no Karlaftis, no Alexander. Big drops there. I think Purdue’s defense is going to be down a couple notches. So, can they score enough to have some high scoring games? I’m a bit surprised the total has come down. I think that’s more a Penn State thing than it is a Purdue thing. Sean Clifford returning at quarterback for Penn State, scrambler who can make things happen. According to PFF, his 29% uncatchable pass rate on pass is beyond the line of scrimmage. That’s not very good. He’s had some issues with accuracy. That needs to improve. He needs to be more consistent. Gary, I would say that the Penn State running game was really bad because the offensive line was just that bad. So, the question is can the offensive line be better? It seems like every year, we talk about Penn State’s offensive line. They’ll be better than they were the year before, and they really haven’t improved as much as they should have. So, I think lots of talent at running back. The question is can somebody block for them? Jahan Dotson gone at wide receiver. I think Tinsley’s a good pickup from Western Kentucky. I think that was a pretty good pickup there by Penn State. Penn State lost five NFL draft choices on defense. Diaz, the new defensive coordinator, I’m curious to get your guys’ opinion. Do you think Diaz is going to be a good hire here at Penn State? Because their defense has been very good. They lost a lot of talent, but I think they should still be very good. Look, I’m going to let Parker talk about Aidan O’Connell quite a bit because I know he wants to. But Aidan O’Connell is very underrated, a very good quarterback, the better of the quarterbacks in this game. No more David Bell at wide receiver, but wide receiver’s still a strength for Purdue, and don’t forget that Payne Durham’s a really good tight end, very good tight end. Matchup problem. Brohm’s a great offensive mind. Do they have enough balance on offense? I keep thinking that you would think that a team would have to run the ball a little bit to have success offensively. Now, Brohm’s a good enough play caller that they’ve had success without being able to run the football. It still concerns me a bit that they can’t run it at all. I tend to be with you here. I do wonder about this. I think that Brohm can develop skill talent. Right? I think that’s his calling card. That’s what he’s known for. Even if you lose some of those big name guys at wide receiver, you’re still going to have guys come in. They got Thompson coming back. He had 200-something yards in the bowl game. Then you mentioned Durham, the tight end. He had two touchdowns in the bowl game. So, even without Karlaftis and David Bell in that Music City Bowl, they still put up 48 points on Tennessee. Granted, it was in overtime, but they still scored a ton of points. So, I would expect the same thing here. But again, Penn State defense, you’ve mentioned lost five NFL draft picks. Coming in with Manny Diaz, Parker, I want to get you in here on this. I do say this, by the way. Purdue, everybody knows that West Lafayette’s tough, tough environment, etc. They’re only 15-15 at home under Brohm, 6-6 as an underdog. It might be kind of negligible there, but we shall see. Parker, what do you have on Purdue and Aidan O’Connell and that bunch? Yeah. So, I really like Aidan O’Connell and I think that they’ve done a good job extending him from just a traditional air raid quarterback as he took over for Plummer there. If you look at the other air raid quarterbacks in the nation last season, Aidan Connell’s completion percentage, if you adjust it for drops and throwaways, was about 10th. Whereas Will Rogers was first at about 82.6, Aidan O’Connell was down at like 79. But his average depth of target was more than two yards longer than Will Rogers. So, they really were able to develop some of these downfield concepts as well with Aidan O’Connell. I think he’s very accurate and I think that they have with Brohm a system that can really attack a passing defense and put a lot of pressure on opposing offense. That being said last season, I did like Purdue against Iowa and against Michigan State. Those were the two big upsets that they pulled off. The reason that my numbers liked them was this mix of early downs, passing ability vs. a team with an obvious flaw. So, Michigan State last year, for instance, had a terrible pass defense. Teams were passing against them almost 11 percentage points more than the average team, most against them, most against Michigan State than any other team in the nation, and Purdue was able to exploit that and against Iowa. Purdue’s defense was so disruptive in the past game that Iowa could not sustain drives, could not move anything downfield. You couple that with Purdue, the way their system runs on offense, they’re not going to be very turnover heavy. Didn’t give Iowa any short field opportunities and were able to capitalize there. Here, I don’t see the asymmetry as much between these two teams. I think Purdue, or excuse me, Penn State with Clifford last season was a much different team than their aggregate numbers show. They were 5-0 going into the Iowa game. They were up three scores at halftime against Iowa. Clifford gets hurt, a total disaster in the second half, the season kind of unravels. But if you look at Penn State’s schedule last year, at the time, number 12, Wisconsin, they beat at the time number 22, Auburn. Number three, Iowa, they lost by three with an injury, and then again at the end of the season, losses to Michigan and Michigan State were both one score, despite some serious obvious imbalances along their offensive line and limitations at quarterback due to Clifford’s health. If they’re healthy, I think that they’ll be able to run a pass offense that won’t be desperation tosses just to Jahan Dotson. One, because he’s gone. But two, because they’ll be able to develop a little bit more with some increased offensive line play. I like Parker Washington there as well. When I’m looking at my numbers for this line, I have a slight edge to Purdue’s offense, especially because of the turnover on defense for Penn State and the new system coordinator there. But I think the talent advantage and some increased consistency from Penn State, given their historical performances and what we think Clifford can be when he’s healthy, I like Penn State here, as much as I’m embracing the Aidan O’Connell train and how good their offense is. I think Penn State’s a team that we’ll look back and say, oh, 2021 was a really weird year for this team. 2020 and 2021, for sure. Very strange season last year. But yeah. Their roster strength is top 20 in the country, 21, somewhere around there, and Purdue is still in the mid 60s. So, when it comes to a talent advantage, obviously that’s going to lean Penn State’s way, for sure. That moves us on to another Big Ten matchup, and this one is interesting: Illinois at Indiana. In Indiana, the Hoosiers favored by five currently. This line opened at three, but they are currently a five point favorite, juice the same both sides, and the total sits at 48 and a half. Now, Indiana has seven new transfers on defense. They got four of them alone at linebacker, and Tom Allen has said after spring practice, etc., that he is going to be more hands on with the defense. Illinois year one was a step in the right direction. The defensive coordinator, Walters, was a pleasant surprise. They were great towards the end of the season. Average giving up 18 points per game over the last eight games. I want to know about Walt Bell, who is the new offensive coordinator at Indiana. He’s the former head coach at UMass, was the former offensive coordinator at Florida State under Willie Taggart. I don’t know how he continues to get jobs. It doesn’t make a lot of sense to me. I don’t see a lot of hope for this Indiana offense, even bringing in the quarterback, Connor Bazelak, the transfer from Missouri. I’m interested in this matchup because I think that Illinois is the better team, even with only 57% returning production here, and yet, they are a five point underdog. I actually had Indiana about a pick’em, roundabout, maybe a half point favorite here, and instead, this line is up to five, and I’m wondering if I have missed something. Illinois, of course, new offense coordinator, Barry Lunney Jr. He was Bielema’s tight ends coach at Arkansas. We’re going to start off on this with you, Kyle. Now, I really like Illinois and what they have started to build there, but I wonder if losing all those guys from last season, lost several on the offensive line, you’re bringing in the new quarterback, Tommy DeVito, from Syracuse, is it going to be too much change or will the guys like Chase Brown, the running back and the, excuse me, wide receiver, Isaiah Williams, are they going to be enough to push through and maybe get Illinois back on the cusp of a bowl game again? What do you say, Kyle? Gary, first, I love how you are throwing Walt Bell under the bus right away. We’re starting off the show-Gary:
Parker Fleming:
Gary:
Kyle Hunter:
Gary:
Parker Fleming:
Gary:
Kyle Hunter:
Gary:
Kyle Hunter:
Gary:
Parker Fleming:
Gary:
Kyle Hunter:
Gary:
[inaudible 00:18:46] early.
Kyle Hunter:
Yeah. Starting off the-
Gary:
[inaudible 00:18:47] all over again.Kyle Hunter:
So, I want to say first that this line has gone from three to five, even five and a half some places, and I talk about sometimes the percentages, the bet percentages. I think those mean very little right now because we know that anybody who’s bet on college football thus far is not Joe Public. Somebody sharp likes Indiana here, which kind of scares me. I agree with you, Gary. I’m not wanting to lay five points with Indiana. That’s for sure. As far as Indiana, they’re off that miserable 2-10 campaign. They were 8-0 against the spread two years ago, then 2-10 last year against the spread. -13 turnover margin last year, -12 sack margin as well. We’ve talked about this offensive line several times in the past. I remember this coming up last year. This is a really bad offensive line for Indiana.
Connor Bazelak had an eight out of seven and a half last year. He’s going to need to get rid of the ball really quick this year. Again, I would expect some defensive improvement for Indiana. Allen is a good defensive mind. Several key transfers. I think the secondary should be quite a bit better. Can Indiana stop the run here? I think that’s the key question in this game because Illinois’s going to run the ball a lot. I’m not confident Indiana’s going to be able to stop the run. Well, you see a total of 48 and a half. That’s mainly low because Illinois was such a good under team last year. Ryan Walters did a tremendous job. I think the credit for Illinois improving should be largely Ryan Walters doing a great job with the defense.
The one issue I have with the Illinois defense this year is Kerby Joseph was a huge loss from the secondary. I think it’ll be hard for them to be as good in the secondary as they were last year. The run defense might be just as good or improve a bit, but I think the pass defense gets worse. Chase brown’s a star, sixth in the country in yards after attempt, or yards after contact per attempt in the country last year, and I think this offensive line’s going to be very good for Illinois. We know what they want to do. Tommy DeVito, the new guy at quarterback, they’re always going to be a run first team. So, the question is do you think Indiana can stop them? I haven’t bet this game and we’ll talk about this game more in the future, but I wouldn’t want to lay the points here with Indiana. That’s how I’ll say it.
Gary:
Oh, most certainly. Parker, let’s move over to you on this. Yeah, I might have thrown Walt Bell under the bus a little bit, but has he given us anything to show why he should be, I guess, given praise or anything? Why is this hire a good hire? I understand Indiana did get some transfers in. Obviously, last year, D.J. Matthews got hurt early coming in from Florida State. He should be healthy this year. They’ve got the running back, Shawn Chivers, coming from Auburn. There are some pieces to like with Indiana. But in this match up, I understand it’s at home. I just seem to Illinois a little more in this spot. What say you?
Parker Fleming:
I will say regarding Walt Bell, eternity begins anew each day and running a program and running one side of the ball are entirely different ventures, and running a program like UMass and running a Power Five offense unit are slightly different, especially with a well established head coach like Tom Allen, who has done a lot of that groundwork that Walt Bell was trying to scramble to do to lay some foundations and build back up and move in a certain direction. My biggest concern here with Indiana is that we’ve had year over year of just increasingly aggressively bad offensive line play. Like it’s gone from neutral to a concern to, wow, it literally cannot be worse. But the flip side is last season, things absolutely fell apart for them. Indiana had a really rough schedule last year. They played Ohio State, Cincinnati, Michigan, Western Kentucky, Purdue, Minnesota, Penn State, Michigan State, Iowa.
Those are all top 50 teams. That is a brutal schedule. Life in the Big Ten is not easy for anyone. So, I do expect a little bit of balancing there. Again, they’re bad, but they weren’t as bad as they were last year. Overall, they were 127th in pass offense. That’s got to change. They’re going to have to find a way to move the ball. The biggest question for me is just, I just don’t trust this offensive line at all, and you look at Connor Bazelak at Missouri, pressured on 25% of the dropbacks, completed fewer than 40% of his passes. 16% of his total completions came on pressure dropbacks, whereas 25% of his total dropbacks were pressured. So, that’s just disproportionate. If you can get any pressure on him at Missouri, they weren’t able to do anything. I’m very worried about downfield passing with Indiana, and I think that Illinois’s rush defense was good enough last year that they were 83rd in raw rushing efficiency and 32nd in passing.
So, I think on the defensive side of the ball under Ryan Walters, Illinois’ taking steps forwards there. They’re going to be able to shut down what Indiana wants to do. I don’t want to touch this game with a 10 foot pole. If you made me pick something, I would probably lean more towards Illinois because I think in the battle of two bad teams, I trust the more consistent team that’s rising as opposed to the more consistent team that’s declining. But generally, I think Indiana really has some systematic issues on the offensive line, and those are really hard to fix overnight. Maybe Walt Bell can do some things there. Although, if you look at the wake of destruction that was Florida State’s offensive line after Taggart and Bell were there, I don’t know if I’m optimistic about that. So, big questions for me are can Illinois run against Indiana’s defense? Indiana was 72nd in rushing efficiency. This is going to be a favorite game for both of you. A lot of man ball, a lot of first down runs, a lot of I formation, a lot of tight ends.
Gary:
You have certainly got that right. 100%. Let me go ahead and toss out a reminder. Subscribe to the podcast. It is The BetUS Football Show. It has both The NFL Show and The College Football Show. So, all of our picks for the entire week, every single week in those shows, in that feed, so go ahead and subscribe there. Jump into the chat. I do see Big Trouble Jack. I see Julio in here. You guys toss in some questions if you want anything answered at the end of the show, anything that we don’t hit on or that we did not hit on in the earlier show over the summer. Like the video, subscribe to the channel, and hit that notification bell, and of course, we will start with win totals, etc., here in just a couple of weeks. So, make sure you are subscribed to the channel. That moves us to North Carolina, heading to App State.
Now, Appalachian State, it’s Saturday, September 3rd. We’re moving into the Saturday portion here, and this one is a 12:00 PM Eastern Time game on ESPNU, and I think this is going to be a monster matchup. The question here, can culture beat talent? Because we know North Carolina has it. They have not fully developed that culture here. App State has the weaker roster and less returning production, but they’re at home in Boone and they’ve been the better program. So, Shawn Clark has built a winner here, has continued a winner. I’ll say that because it was built long before he became the head coach. But North Carolina, interesting things going on.
Of course, they dropped Jay Bateman and he’s the defensive coordinator, and they brought in Gene Chizik. Bateman was not able to do exactly what they wanted to do on defense. Now, of course, it is difficult to run a defense when you’ve got Phil Longo running all kinds of crazy things on the opposite side of the ball, where he goes quick snap and three and out and you’re back on the field in less than a minute. That gets kind of difficult, and I was curious how that was going to work with Bateman. We might see the same thing at Texas Tech this year with Tim DeRuyter, the defensive coordinator, pairing up with Zack Kittley. But regardless, we’ll stay on North Carolina here.
Can Chizik fix a talented defense that was number 102 in points per play, number 96 in PPA per drive? The other question for North Carolina, how is the offense without the quarterback, Howell? Who is going to be starting? Is it Drake Maye? We’re not sure. We’ll start off with you on this, Parker. North Carolina is favored by three here with a total of 57. It opened at North Carolina favored by three and a half. I want to go North Carolina here because I trust talent most of the time, but this is a huge game in the State of North Carolina in Boone, and I think App State is going to be fully prepared for this. They’ve got Chase Bryce back, but they lose, I believe, their top three wide receivers. This is a tricky, tricky spot for the Tar Heels, especially with Georgia State coming up the next week. Parker, give me your thoughts.
Parker Fleming:
Yes. So, one, that’s national champion, Gene Chizik to you as a defensive coordinator for North Carolina there. Two, yeah. You have to wonder about the intent and execution of North Carolina’s scheduling strategy, playing back to back road games against Sun Belt teams this year, fresh off of your quarterback going in the NFL draft. Yeah. So, a lot of questions here. One thing I will note is that North Carolina is returning the highest used player in college football in Josh Downs, 41.4% of team total targets last season. Absolutely involved in every play. If you can shut him down, you can shut the team down, especially as they look to replace Sam Howell, who turned into Trevor Knight or Blake Bell last season and rushed for a thousand yards in desperate situations. How can App State force teams to take, force North Carolina, excuse me, to take advantage of these secondary options? Last season, looking at North Carolina, they were eighth in EPA per rush. That includes a lot of Howell’s value in his legs when he was scrambling. But they were 70th in EPA per pass on offense.
So, huge split there. Really couldn’t get a consistent passing offense. Again, that comes back to offensive line. So, a lot of growing pains and kind of, I’m flagging the season for North Carolina as maybe 2020 was good because Sam Howell just lived in Mack Brown’s basement all summer. That’s not a joke or a euphemism. Literally, they studied film all off season while everyone was locked down and had an 8-4 season. Pretty good COVID year. But I think as we’re moving past further and further away from 2020, we see that really looks like it’s a lot more of an outlier year than it was any informative signal. So, on the North Carolina side of things, I’m worried about how they’ll be able to get the offense going outside of downs and outside of Sam Howell scrambling and running for his life. So, that’s one big issue for me.
On the flip side, I think that with Appalachian State, you’ve got to look more at consistency than at talent. Last season, App State was, as my numbers are loading, sorry, they were 20th in EPA per play margin raw, but they had a really big split on offense. With Chase Bryce, they were 20th and in passing EPA, but 101st in rushing EPA. That just shows the variance that is Chase Bryce. Anytime he fumbled, which happened a lot in a couple of their key games, that went to the rushing EPA. So, if they can get a little more consistency on offense, this defense was top 20 quality last season, and I think that they could really surprise North Carolina here, if North Carolina cannot figure out a solid secondary offensive option behind Josh Downs.
Gary:
Now, Kyle, let’s move over to you on this. App State only returning 54% of their production. No, excuse me, 61%. I’m looking at the wrong numbers. Only 61% of the production coming back. But again, this is culture that’s been built. Give me your thoughts here on North Carolina and App State.
Kyle Hunter:
Well, I think it’s fantastic game. Boone gets to host North Carolina. This is a fun place. I’d like to go to a game like this. This game should be a great environment. Boone is a really nice college town there. I think Chase Bryce had a good season last year. He reverted to Duke, Chase Bryce, a couple times, but overall, he had a good season, certainly. I think App State, when you look at them, they don’t have anybody that returns more than 12 catches from last year. So, these guys had 12 catches than me and Gary and Parker combined. This is a App State team that is going to be running the football. They’re going to lean on Cameron People’s and Nate Noel even more than they have in the past. It’s a really good offensive line. We know their head coach has a really good offensive line background. I think they’ll continue to be very good.
App State ran the ball on 58% of their plays last year. I think it needs to be quite a bit higher than that this year. I would expect them to run the football a lot. Their defensive front, less experienced than they’ve been in the past. I don’t think they’re going to be bad, but they won’t be tremendous. The secondary is always very good for App State and I think it will be again. Yeah. North Carolina with a really disappointing season last year. They certainly blew a good opportunity. People are talking about them as having a chance to really do something special, and now they’re without Howell and their top two running backs from last year. There’s virtually no way they’re going to put up offensive numbers. They have, even last year, or especially like the year before, Downs is a star at wide receiver, but can the young quarterbacks get him the ball consistently?
I think that’s a question mark. The defensive line has a bunch of really highly touted guys who have really underachieved, frankly. Storm Duck is both a fantastic name and really a good player in the secondary. He’s been injured a lot. Can he stay healthy? I think that’s really important. Guys, North Carolina hasn’t exactly been good starting seasons in the past. They’re 4-7 straight up in their last 11 road openers. So, they have not been doing well on the road and now they go play a tough game in Boone. I would say that my initial lean in this game is certainly toward App State, but I want to look at this one more and looking forward to talking about this one more as we get closer too.
Gary:
Now, let me throw a question out into the ethos here. You mentioned about App State leaning on Peoples and Noel. They were number 76 in rushing success rate last year, even though they ran the ball 58% of the time. Parker, maybe you can answer this. Do you try to lean on them more or do you try and get more reps in for those wide receivers that need to be developed in a situation like this? Because with success rate number 76, obviously you weren’t great at running the ball. But I’m curious which way you would lean going that direction.
Parker Fleming:
Well, looking at the rushing, I think the one key deal here is to look at when they rushed. So, in terms of rush rate over expectation, again, taking into context down distance and yard line, App State really only rushed about 2.2 percentage points more than average. That’s 40th in the nation. That’s not egregious, but they did like to lean on those guys. The one stat with the run game that stuck out to me was in terms of third and fourth down success last season. App State was 61st in conversion rate, 43.1% conversion there, and if you look at their third and fourth downs, 33% of those plays, not just their rushes, 33% of those plays went through Peoples or Noel. So, they really did better rushing the ball on early downs, and then on late downs, they really struggled in those short yarded situations to capitalize.
So, how they can either avoid those third downs by being aggressive on first and second downs, or figure out a way to get that power run game a little bit better to feature those backs, those guys are certainly open field capable of breaking a big play. But they’re losing a lot of value on those late downs and those unsuccessful runs on those third and fourth downs. So, that’s something to look at when you start to talk about where does the talent advantage matter a whole lot, the trenches. So, if it really does come down to can App State get those successes on third and fourth down, that might make you lean a little bit towards North Carolina.
Gary:
That actually leads us into another ballgame that is a G5 team hosting a, quote, unquote, “P5 team”. San Diego State hosting Arizona and San Diego State favored by six currently with a total of 48. Now, this opened at nine, the Aztecs favored by nine, and it’s all the way down to six. I think it had gotten down to five at one point. It’s back up to six here. San Diego State opening brand new Snapdragon Stadium. They won last year at Arizona, 38 to 14. Could this be a future Pac-12 matchup? Or maybe it’s a Big 12 vs. Mountain West. We’ll see with all the expansion talk going on. But looking at San Diego State, bringing back 53% returning production, 44% on offense, they do have quarterback, Brandon Burmeister, that they got from the portal from Virginia Tech.
They lost three offensive linemen. They lost three of their top four wide receivers. They lost the running back, Greg Bell. But does it necessarily matter? Because the offense was awful last season. Right? That’s the question here is can they find a way to generate more points? Because I believe that Arizona is going to be fired up for this game with Jayden de Laura coming in, the quarterback from Washington State, along with the wide receiver, Jacob Cowing, coming in from UTEP. Massive PPA wide receiver last year. Kyle, we’ll start with you on this. I like what Jedd Fisch is doing here. The fact that this spread is below a touchdown, even though everybody seems to believe that San Diego State is just going to crush them, I tend to lean with the Wildcats on this, but I’m curious your thoughts on it. Kyle, go ahead.
Kyle Hunter:
Yeah. San Diego State, they were 61st in the nation in yards per play margin last year and they went 12-2. There was some guy by the name, Matt Araiza that was a pretty decent kicker that probably had something to do with that. Special teams are going to be beat down, but they’ll still be pretty good for San Diego State. They’ve been good special teams-wise in the past. You can’t lose a guy like that and not drop off quite a bit. I still think they’re the best defense in the Mountain West. Boise State will be a good defense as well, certainly. But the question is Braxton Burmeister. Is he going to give them something more offensively is going to be a big upgrade. Really, they haven’t gotten good quarterback play in a really long time. When’s the last time San Diego State had a good quarterback? I honestly can’t think of the last time they had a good quarterback. It’s been a long time.
Yet, San Diego State for a long time was able to run the football really well. We remember some very good running backs here. Humphrey, Penny, guys like that. Then in recent years, San Diego State hasn’t really been that good at running the football and yet, they’ve still been able to win. I think it’ll be hard to keep winning at that kind of rate. Obviously, the NCAAF odds makers do as well based on their win total and where this game is lined. For me, the Arizona side is the side that I don’t know much about. I think I know what San Diego State’s going to be pretty consistently. We know they’re going to run the football. They might not be that good at running the football. They’re going to have a lot of really low scoring games. So, what’s Arizona going to be?
Jayden de Laura at quarterback is a big upgrade. Cowing at wide receiver, very good. I think de Laura, I think he’s a good quarterback. I like him quite a bit. He is in a much tougher position here than he was at Washington State, though, because Arizona has a really weak offensive line and subpar talent running back, and this is a much different offense than what he was running in in the past. Arizona was -17 in turnover margin last year. That’s really hard to do. They managed to do it.
A big upgrade in quarterback for Jayden de Laura. Arizona had a really good recruiting class last year. It was really surprising to me when I saw that they were a top 25 recruiting class. This is a team that’s going to be a lot better in the future. The question is how much better are they going to be right away this year? Seventh defensive coordinator in 11 years. They’re lacking high end talent on defense. I think the defense will be similar to what it has been. I think the offense should be a lot better, but there’s enough unknowns here for Arizona that I’m not terribly interested in betting this game.
Gary:
No, that definitely does make sense. This will be a bit of a youth movement for the Wildcats. Johnny Nansen is the new defensive coordinator, takes over for Don Brown, who took over the UMass job. So, the defense was really what kept them in a lot of games. They had some closer than expected ballgames last year. San Diego State, I’m curious. Defense is going to be fine, but how do you replace all the production that Cam Johnson had on that defensive line? That’s what I’m curious about. Parker, give me your thoughts here on the Aztecs and the Wildcats.
Parker Fleming:
Yes. So, I think that the portrait that we could paint of San Diego State last year is kind of hilarious because they were fifth in starting field position on defense. They were ninth and starting field position on offense. They were sixth in EPA per play on defense. They were 118th in EPA per play on offense. They had every opportunity to do great things on offense and just politely declined. 1.83 points per drive on offense, was 102nd in the nation, 121st in third and fourth down success. 121st. The offense was so bad to the point where people last season started comparing Matt Araiza’s punt or yards per punt to other punters and finding, oh, his yards per punt is actually shorter than other punters because the San Diego State offense was so bad that even that they started with good field position, he was punting on a short field almost every time. They could not do anything. There are multiple offenders on punting in plus territory. So, have to find something there on offense.
I tend to believe that if Braxton Burmeister is the answer, you might be asking the wrong question. They were 100th in early downs rush rate last season, could not find any success in the run game. They were 101st in success rate, 84th in EPA per rush. Really, really bad offense on San Diego State side. So, I expect the defense will be good. Shout out to Coach Mattix, I think is the … Kurt Mattix is the defensive coordinator.
Gary:
[inaudible 00:40:56].Parker Fleming:
Really well respected and really, really smart guy. So, I trust that they’ll be good again on defense. The question will be offense, and I think there’s rays of hope for Arizona here to get a couple big plays. They brought in someone who I think, Kyle, we need to apologize to because last season, you and I talked a lot about Jalen Tolbert. If you remember, I think we had an unofficial segment that was Jalen Tolbert Watch and we talked about him so much, we completely ignored Jacob Cowing from UTEP, who is transferring into Arizona and is going to be a high volume receiver. 19.7 yards per reception, seven touchdowns, on average depth of target of 15.2. So, getting the ball downfield, creating opportunities from space, catching contested targets, really, really talented.
Jayden de Laura was in that run and shoot offense at Washington State, and it wasn’t great, but he did show that he had a heartbeat and some accuracy. I think he’s got to be optimistic with Arizona that this is going to be a close game, it’s going to be a rock fight, and you have an ace up your sleeve in this de Laura to Cowing question. If Arizona can minimize some of these just shooting yourself in the foot plays, Kyle referenced the -17 in turnover margins, if Arizona could just punt it instead of handing the ball to opposing teams on their own 35, I really think that this offense could be sneakily annoying with that combination there.
Again, that predicates, or is predicated on having a semblance of talent at the offensive line. They’re a little bit of ways from that. But there should be a couple fireworks here. I do really like what Jedd Fisch is doing. I don’t know that I have a lean on a line here, but this is one, if we’re talking about storylines for the Mountain West and if we’re talking about that potentially weird Pac-12 upset that keeps someone out of the playoff, I’m watching both of these teams.
Gary:
Oh, most certainly. Most certainly. Parker, you’re on deck. I’m going to start with you on this next ballgame, but let’s go on and intro it. Memphis headed to Starkville to take on Mississippi State and the Bulldogs favored by 17. This line opened at 12 and the total opened at 56 and a half. It’s up to 57 now. Memphis won this game last year, 31-29, largely on a punt return touchdown that probably should have been ruled down. Seth Henigan vs. Will Rogers is going to be a lot of fun here.
We’ll start off with Mississippi State. 80% returning productions. Number 14 nationally. Number one in the SEC. The quarterback Rogers gets running backs, Marks and Johnson back. Both of those can catch balls out of the backfield, along with some proven wide receivers, a sturdy offensive line. You got a second year with Mike Leach. That’s always big for a quarterback here. The defense is solid for Mississippi State, and yet I don’t know what to expect from Memphis. They did win the ballgame last year. Looking at Ryan Silverfield and what he’s done, 8-15 against the spread the last two years, 0-6 as a road dog. I don’t know exactly what to make of it because they lost six of their last eight last year. Parker, start us off here. Tell me about Memphis and Mississippi State.
Parker Fleming:
My therapist, Gary, advised me to stop talking about the downed punt and how stupid that was and how bad of a break that was. But [inaudible 00:44:01] last season.
Gary:
I think we all lost that game last year, right? Didn’t we all pick Mississippi State?
Parker Fleming:
I definitely did, and yeah, that was one I just … Oh, man. That was one that hurt me and stuck with me. In terms of this game, I think you’ve got to give an obvious lean towards Mississippi State, just SEC team. Their defense has been consistently good over the last couple of years, and like you said, they have a second year of Will Rogers, who was the most accurate quarterback in the nation last season. 81.4% adjusted completion percentage. Mississippi State was passing at a rate higher than anyone else in terms of pass rate over, or rush rate over expected. They were -11. So, that’s just a ton more than anyone. My fun fact is we all know how bad Michigan State’s pass defense was. Mississippi State passed against their average opponent more often than opponents passed against Michigan State’s terrible pass defense.
That’s how aggressive they were is even when teams were trying to exploit the worst pass defense in the Power Five, they were not passing as much as Mississippi State does. They will absolutely just throw the ball and throw the ball and throw the ball, and that can be a beat down, especially when there is a talent imbalance there, as we see. As for Memphis, they lose defensive coordinator to Mike MacIntyre to-
Gary:
FIU.
Parker Fleming:
… Florida International. Yeah. I was trying to remember if it was Atlantic or International there, to Florida International. There’s some turnover there. You start to look at the back half of their season and maybe start to use the Q word, which I hate to use about college athletes. But things did not go well for Memphis down the stretch. The biggest key is similar to what we talked about with App State. There’s a legacy of success there. Memphis has done well turning over. They’ve got Seth Henigan, who is flirting with the title of gunslinger. I really think that Memphis will be better than last year.
Last year, we can attribute to some off field stuff, a little bit of flukiness. But they’re a team to watch because their pass ceiling is so high. I fully expect this to be a shout out. One fun fact, Gary, I did see that I think this is the third year in a row that Ryan has signed the highest ever class in Memphis’ history. So, he’s getting talent in there. They’re benefiting from being in the AAC. I’d go slightly into Mississippi State just because the experience is so much better, and we’re going to talk not just about passing explosiveness, which both teams have, but consistent passing volume, and I think Mississippi State will do much better there.
Gary:
Somebody to look out for here for Memphis, Jay Duckman, the running back from Northern Illinois. He transfers in along with Brandon Thompson, I believe, or Thomas. I can’t remember the name. I didn’t put it down. But yes. This should be a very interesting game. That Memphis defense is talented. It is Power Five talented. The offense is maybe a work in progress. We’ll call it that. Kyle, I’m curious your thoughts here. The Bulldogs, Parker mentioned it, they threw 72% of the time last year, and it works if you’re going up against somebody that cannot stop the pass. They were not very explosive. Give me your thoughts on the Bulldogs and the Tigers here. Can the Tigers be explosive enough to maybe steal some points here and come out of Starkville with the win?
Kyle Hunter:
Yeah, Gary. I think you and Parker had this game last year and I was just going to say that it’s kind of harsh to start with Parker on this one just because I know this one was a rough one. I fully expect Gary to start with me when we talk about Florida State and Clemson at the upcoming season. So, I have to say, you look at last year’s game and Memphis won despite being outgained 468-246 and had 12 first downs. 12 first downs. Crazy. Weird game, to say the least. Henigan, I think had a good season for a freshman. Certainly a pretty impressive quarterback. Can they be balanced on offense? I do think they have good depth at running back. The question mark for them is their offensive line. Can they be good enough?
On defense, Memphis should be better than they’ve been. They were 125th in third down defense last year. Opponents converted on almost half of their third downs. Secondary is a problem area. I do think Memphis will have high scoring games this year because I think Henigan’s a good player. Memphis is 0-9 against the spread with Silverfield as a head coach on the road. So, unless I have my numbers wrong, I don’t think he’s covered once on the road, regardless of favorite or underdog. So, they have something to prove, for sure. Having said that, this is a pretty big line. This is a number that doesn’t make you be excited about laying the points, in my opinion.
Will Rogers is a great fit for the air raid. 1.8% turnover worthy plays last year, which is just fantastic, certainly. Very accurate passer. I think Mississippi State lacks a star wide receiver, but Leach’s system gets them quite a few guys open in general. They don’t have really a game breaker. I like Arnett a lot as the defensive coordinator and I think Mississippi State will improve as a defense this year. I would pay attention to the return of Jordan Davis on the defensive line for Mississippi State. I think that will help a lot. Game changer. I think this defense will be much better. This is a big line. The biggest thing I have here is I think Memphis will score quite a few points this year and they are a team that I pegged over team for totals this season.
Gary:
I could maybe get with that. I could maybe get with them going over, I believe their total is around six, six and a half. I could see it. They are vastly underrated as a team. However, that schedule is brutal. Take a reminder right quick. Go ahead and let you all know to like the video, make sure and subscribe to the channel, hit the notification bell, of course, if you’re just joining us, and jump into the chat for Q&A. There are multiple people in, I see Julio, Big Trouble Jack, etc. So, if you have any questions that you would like answered at the end of the show, you can jump in there or also toss in your picks. We want to know what you guys are picking on these games. We like to get all the information that we possibly can as well. Also, podcast, make sure and subscribe to the podcast as well.
Gentlemen, we’ve got two more games that we’re going to hit. This one is a fun one. We are moving to Columbia, South Carolina. Georgia State taking on South Carolina on Saturday, September 3rd. It’s a 7:30 PM Eastern Time kickoff on ESPN+, and most certainly, we’ll be rolling with the streaming here. South Carolina favored by 13 and a half total of 56. This one opened at South Carolina an 11 point favorite. Georgia State got within one minute of winning at Auburn last year, and that was with a healthy Bo Nix. The Panthers only got better from there. Now, South Carolina outperformed last year, they overperformed what they were expected to do, and this year, Shane Beamer got Spencer rattler out of the portal. They got the tight end, Austin Stogner. They got wide receivers, Rucker and Wells. There is a lot of hype around the Gamecocks. CFB Winning Edge, by the way, has them as the number 10 overall roster strength and the number five overall offensive roster strength coming into this season.
I am very curious what the South Carolina team is going to look like. Georgia State, of course, bringing back the quarterback, Darren Grainger. He’s coming back for Shawn Elliot. But the offensive coordinator left for Virginia Tech. The wide receiver coach, McKnight, is going to be the new OC. So, I don’t expect a lot of changes on offense. Four offensive linemen back, the running back, Tucker Gregg, and two starting wide receivers are coming back. They averaged over six yards per play over the last eight games last year. This team was on a roll. We’ll start off with you, Kyle, on this one. I love Georgia State, but man, I am hyped up for Shane Beamer and those Gamecocks right now. What say you?
Kyle Hunter:
Two well coached teams, two teams that I think I’d rather bet on than bet against, like I said earlier. I have to say, Georgia State really outplayed Auburn for much of that game last year, and if you remember at the end of that game, there was some very bad officiating. I think Georgia State was ripped off, and I hope I’m not alienating our Auburn fan base here. But I’m not necessarily an Auburn fan or root against Auburn, but I like to root for the underdog in a game like that. Honestly, Georgia State probably should have won that game. So, they returned a lot of talent from last year. Good quarterback, depth at running back, +14 sack margin last season. I think Georgia State’s defense is really aggressive. They take a lot of chances. They’ll bring a lot of pressure. Can South Carolina hold them off or make them pay?
Beamer did a fantastic job last year. One of the best coaching jobs of anybody in the country. Now, they bring in Rattler. He’ll get all the talk, and then the wide receivers as well. But Beal-Smith from Wake Forest is a good pickup, Carroll from Georgia, they have some good running backs coming in. This transfer class is elite. Can they gel, look good together? It is a veteran offensive line, but I will say that they really haven’t been very good. So, this is one of those things where people say, well, everybody’s back, returning all kinds of people from last year, but should we really be excited that they’re all back? Because they really haven’t been very good. For me, excuse me, the secondary on defense is their major strength. Great cornerbacks, for sure, for South Carolina. This is a game where I understand why people want to bet South Carolina. I think Georgia State is a dangerous Sun Belt team, for sure. I don’t really have a lean on this game, to be honest with you. It’s just a game that I think will be fun to watch.
Gary:
I’m kind of in that same boat. Parker, 85% returning production for Georgia State, that’s number four in the country, and we saw what they were able to do once that offense got rolling last season. Is this something where they’re just walking into a buzzsaw in Columbia on Saturday night? Or maybe they’re going to give South Carolina a little something to think about early on. Give me your thoughts here.
Parker Fleming:
Georgia State is a great litmus test for the importance of opponent adjustments. I think that they had, by the raw numbers, had just an absolutely dirty offense. They were ninth in points per quality possession at 5.17. That’s just behind Georgia and just ahead of UCF. When they got a scoring opportunity, which was 55.8% of the time, 49th in the nation, they scored as well as anybody there and finished very well. They had some good schemes. Obviously, their offensive coordinator got rewarded for that. In terms of raw opponent adjusted stats, fourth in offensive EPA, 84th in defensive EPA. But if you look at their schedule and the way things shook out, they were 1-4 in their first four games. They got blown out by Army, they got blown out by North Carolina, and they got blown out by App State.
They played Louisiana closer as their team ramped up and it was a one score loss, but they beat Coastal Carolina in a game without Grayson McCall, only beat them by two. You look at these other opponents in this 6-1 stretch at the end the season, ULM, not very good. Texas State, absolute disaster. Georgia Southern, not very good. Arkansas State, absolute disaster. Troy, not very good. Their schedule really aligned for some positive momentum at the end of the season for them to get quality reps against bad opponents and to function well. So, they’re returning a lot of production. Their schedule’s not going to line up that nicely, again, this season, and they’re going to have to replace some of that offensive ingenuity that really helped them.
So, I think this start for Georgia State is South Carolina, North Carolina, Charlotte, who should be much improved, and then Coastal Carolina, then you get Army after that, they could be looking at 1-4 again. They’ll have a backloaded schedule. But a lot of those teams got better and their breaks in who they draw this season aren’t as good. So, I really think that they were a fun story last year. I think that offensive ingenuity, especially the first time teams see it, can really help you capitalize in scoring opportunities. But I expect them to be at a severe talent disadvantage to South Carolina, and given how slow they started and how they played against quality opponents last year, I think that I’m relegating Georgia State more towards fun story than I am actual contender to upset a Power Five team here.
Gary:
That could certainly make sense. Looking at the roster strength over at CFB Winning Edge, South Carolina, number 10, Georgia State, number 70. So, the talent advantage certainly lies with the Gamecocks. I would assume most people will be leaning that direction as well. We’ll see what this line ends up the week before the ballgame, for sure. That’ll take us to the last game that we’re going to discuss today. Again, if anybody wants to toss in any questions into the chat, go ahead and do so. I see Big Trouble Jack already toss some in, Aaron already as well. We’ll hit that right after this ballgame. Saturday, September 3rd, Louisville heading to Syracuse to take on The Orange, 8:00 PM Eastern Time. This one’s on ACC network, and this is an interesting line here. Three and a half with a total of 58 and a half. Syracuse has new offensive coordinator, Robert Anae, and the quarterback coach, Jason Beck, both coming over from Virginia, where they had, I believe, the number eight total offense in the country last year.
What are they going to be able to do with the quarterback, Garrett Shrader, and the running back, Sean Tucker? Can Syracuse keep up with what Louisville does? Because Malik Cunningham is a one man show. He is an absolute all star. They’ve got four offensive linemen back, brought in Tiyon Evans from Tennessee as well. They lost three of their top four wide receivers, but they do return the tight end, Marshon Ford, who was a beast last year. This is a fun game to try and figure out early on because Syracuse went 5-7 last year. Post-game win expectancy said they should have had a touch over six wins. So, they should have maybe been bowling for Dino.
This is interesting for Louisville as well, as far as post-game win expectancy last year. They were 6-6 and their post-game win expectancy was closer to 9-3. I believe they had 9.07 wins as far as the post-game win expectancy stats there. We’ll start off with you on this one, Parker. I’m curious because Malik Cunningham is just awesome and they seem to find ways to let him just steal yard. Obviously, I trust Satterfield with an offense, for sure, but going up against the Syracuse defense, they were number 39 in PPA per drive last year. Louisville went 2-4 in one score games last year. I’m curious your thoughts on this between The ‘Cuse and Louisville.
Parker Fleming:
Yeah. So, I think that it’s worth noting, Malik Cunningham is one of three returning players to have 20 total touchdowns last season, I think, at the quarterback position, and a lot of that was in the red zone. Louisville basically didn’t need to play wide receivers in the red zone because Blake Cunningham was going to find the end zone and was really, really good with his legs. You see that some in their splits. Louisville was 104th in early downs rush rate last season. A lot of that was scrambles and their just straight up run game wasn’t that efficient. But because of Cunningham’s legs, they were able to extend drives 35th in EPA per rush, 25th in unadjusted EPA per pass. The issue for me with Louisville is, of course, turnovers. I feel like they gave away the ball a lot. 75th in starting defensive field position.
Then their aggregate defensive metrics were just not very good. 83rd on defense. It feels like neither side of the ball has the identity, but the offensive side of the ball has Malik Cunningham and is able to create plays here. As for Syracuse, we’re going to see a dramatic shift, like you said, in rushing run pass splits. Syracuse ran the ball more than all, or excuse me, ran the ball sixth most of any Power Five team last season. Really could not do anything at the quarterback position. Virginia, of course, passed the ball about as much as anybody could. They really threw it down field a whole lot. So, that change, I think we could see just an improvement in efficiency because an increased number of passes is going to increase variance, and when you’re bad in college football variance is positive, right? Anything crazy that happens is probably going to break in the underdog’s favor.
So, we could see some returns for Syracuse there in just being able to get the ball down field. They were 111th in early down rush rate last season. They were 118th and EPA per pass, even as they were third in unadjusted EPA per rush. So, they were decently efficient, but mostly because they just ran early downs and teams were happy to get them into third and fourth down situations where Syracuse only completed 40.24% of their attempts, which is 88th in the nation.
So, the picture I see of Syracuse is maybe not very talented, but maybe not as hard on their luck as their numbers have shown. I think with some aggressiveness and ingenuity on offense, they could be pretty interesting. Louisville, I think, is in a rubber meets the road situation here where Malik Cunningham, really, really talented, and they’re recruiting super well. This season could be a level setting season for Scott Satterfield at Louisville. It’s going to rely on them being able to create successful offensive drives outside of Cunningham making these amazing plays. They want to capitalize obviously on him making those amazing plays, but they need to find those second and third options to help their offense be a little bit more robust and a little less of a one man show.
Gary:
Now, Kyle, that’ll move us over to your side. Louisville’s defense, obviously not great last year. But Syracuse’s offense, not great last year. How much of a change does Robert Anae bring in here? I’m curious your thoughts. Go ahead and tell me what you think about The Orange and the Cardinals.
Kyle Hunter:
Yeah. The more I look at Louisville, they were a team that was pretty unfortunate to only win six games last year. They were a pretty good team. Four of their seven losses were by six points or less. I remember betting against Louisville with Air Force in the bowl game and thinking I got pretty lucky to win that one. Louisville looked pretty good in that game. Had some mistakes that really hurt them. I think they probably should have won that game. Really, an impressive season from Cunningham last year. 91.5 PFF grade, which is sixth in the country. Their new OC, Taylor, has been a great. Running backs coach in the past. He had McCaffrey and then Williams at Notre Dame. Tiyon Evans, a really big pickup at running back. I think Louisville’s going to be very good running football. So, the question is can Syracuse stop them running the football?
Cunningham can make big mistakes in the passing game occasionally, but I think Louisville will try to run the ball a lot. Syracuse is the team that I really want to see what they do offensively, as you guys pointed out. Anae, the new offensive coordinator, I would assume that they’re going to really work on trying to improve the pass game. One concern I have about Shrader is Garrett Shrader was 60th out of 67 Power Five quarterbacks in uncatchable pass rate last year. So, he’s got to get more accurate. He takes a lot of deep shots. They got to connect on some of those Sean Tucker’s a really, really good running back. Both teams good at running the football. Tucker was fourth in rushing yards over expected in the country last year. I’m going to be watching Syracuse’s tempo on offense too. You guys know I watch tempo very closely. They’ve really slowed down in recent seasons quite a bit.
I think it was because they knew that they didn’t have the explosive offense to win high scoring games, and actually, their defense has been pretty good. Do they speed back up under Anae or no? I’m not sure the answer to that. That’s why I want to wait and see before I would bet a total here. Syracuse defense last year was excellent against the run, but D line is probably their biggest weakness this year. I wouldn’t have a lot of confidence saying that they would stop Louisville’s run game in this one. So, initially on the surface, I would lean toward Louisville, but I hate the hook here. So, we’ll see what happens with this line as we get closer.
Gary:
I tend to agree on the hook. Gentlemen, that is going to wrap that segment up for today. Let’s go ahead and dive into the Q&A, and we’ll start off here with Aaron Rod, and he said, “Kyle, any total parlays to look at for the first week?” This might be a bit early for that, but Kyle, I’ll let you answer that if you would like to.
Kyle Hunter:
Yeah. So, I’m going to say you should tune back in when we talk about the week one games and I’ll certainly have totals plays. Spoiler alert. I’m not a parlay guy, really. So many times, I hear people say, “I have a five team parlay and four of them won and the last one lost,” but that’s going to happen a lot when you take five team parlays. So, be careful with those parlays. I’m not going to have totals parlays, but I will have plenty of totals plays coming up. Tune back in because it’s not too long until those games come around.
Gary:
You have certainly got that right. Our next question here, last question of the day, Big Trouble Jack jumped in and said, “Do you guys have any sleeper teams to watch out for this year?” I’m going to start off on this one, and I hope I don’t steal anybody’s, but I really kind of like Kansas State this year. I know that the talent isn’t crazy, but they’ve got six all Big 12 players on their roster. It’s the most of any team in the Big 12, and I think that they’ve got a fantastic new offense coordinator with Collin Klein. I think that they’re going to be a really good football team. Parker, give me your thoughts on maybe a sleeper team for this season.
Parker Fleming:
Yes. Well, I’ll say NC State is the one that’s been talked about all off season. I think they’re, have been discussed to the point of being overrated. Kansas State, we’re flirting with the discussed as underrated to the point of being overrated. I think they’ll be very good though, and that is a really good one. If we want to get deep, things that I look for are teams that are returning offensive, defensive coordinator, head coach, and quarterback. Right? If you’re doing that, you’re on track to development to take a step forward. So, it’s 23 teams in college football that are doing that. A couple people can argue with me about who started and who’s returning and there’s some fuzzy teams, but generally 23. A couple of these teams, I really like to be much better than last year. Boise State. I think East Carolina is a team that we talked about a lot last year, but should be pretty decent.
This season, Kansas should take a meaningful step forward. Hint, hint on a season total there. I’m loving Kansas, over two and a half, if you can get that. But the other one that stands out to me is I think Navy should be pretty good. A lot of attention to Air Force this year. But Navy should be pretty good, and lastly, Southern Mississippi. They really were a disaster last season. They had quarterback issues in depth and just couldn’t do anything, but they’ve got Ty Keys back and continuity across all three facets, and those are really, really good. They should be really, really good relative to what they were last year.
Gary:
Now, Kyle, how about you? Do you have a sleeper other than … Let’s see, and I have left Central Michigan just hanging out there. So, we can do that. But Kyle, do you have any sleepers here?
Kyle Hunter:
It’s funny. The teams that Parker was saying were much aligned with what I like for surprise teams. So, I like that. We’re agreeing a lot here. I was hoping NC State wouldn’t be talked up so much, but now they’ve been talked up to the point that NC State, like you said, it’s probably overvalued, if anything. Boise State was one of them that I was thinking about saying. So, since Parker mentioned them, I’ll go with Washington. Washington is not a team that I think’s going to be really good. It’s just that they were that bad last year. Everything went wrong.
They actually have quite a bit of talent on their roster. So, you would think Washington is one of those sneaky teams that could have a better season than expected. I’m not saying I think Washington’s going to be a really good team, but I do think Washington will probably be undervalued by many people, just based on how ugly last season went. But I don’t know that anything could have gone worse. It just unraveled in the worst way possible. So, I’d say Washington and Boise State were the two that I was debating between.
Gary:
Yeah. Washington and Michigan State game early in the season. I think it’s week three. That one’s going to be really, really interesting, based on how much Kalen DeBoer likes to throw the football and how bad Michigan State’s pass defense was at last season. So, gentlemen, I don’t see any other questions in the chat. Anybody else want to toss anything out there? Are we good to go? All right. I guess we’ll wrap this thing up then.
We did go over an hour again. We’re going to try and reel this thing back in. But we just love college football. It is what it is. So, sometimes we’ll go over an hour. So, with that said, let me remind you all, subscribe to the podcast, subscribe on YouTube here, like the video, jump in the comments, and tell us your picks. We want to know who you like in these ballgames, for sure, and give us some ideas. What would you like to see on the show, etc.? We love all of the feedback. That’ll wrap it up for BetUS, where the game begins. God bless college football and we’ll see you all again next time.
