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College Football Week 7 Picks and Predictions (PT.2) | Best NCAA Football Odds & Game Analysis

Week 7 NCAAF Show

Gary Segars:

Welcome in to the BetUS College Football Show. It is week seven and it is, of course, part two of the week. This is where we hit the afternoon and evening slate of games. If you missed part one, of course, the weeknight games slash the morning slate for Saturday, make sure and go back and watch yesterday’s episode.

I am your host Gary Segars, so you can follow me on Twitter @GaryWCE. And, man, do we have some bangers today. We got some good games to discuss. A nice combination of sicko picks and the big games that are on the board. Let’s go ahead and start this thing off by introducing our experts. On the right side of your screen, he is our professional award-winning handicapper, @KyleHunterPicks on Twitter, Kyle Hunter. Kyle, how are you, sir?

Kyle Hunter:

Doing well, man. How about yourself? And, we’re looking forward to talking about some college football. Like you said, we got a great mixture of those sicko games, which I do have a real appreciation for, but also the big games. So, I love this mixture.

Gary Segars:

Most certainly. Yeah. Had to get away from the right side jokes.

Kyle Hunter:

I was… I was hoping so. Yeah.

Gary Segars:

Because, it didn’t work last week. So, eventually we know that all good things must come to an end. This week, we are starting fresh. I’ve got a new shirt. We are trying something different this go round. So, on the left side of the screen, we’ve got Parker Fleming, the numbers guy, the analyst, the numerical guru, if you will, @statsowar on Twitter. Parker, how are you feeling about this slate?

Parker Fleming:

I’m feeling good. I get excited about this Wednesday show, not just because I have four picks today and we’re going to cover, what? Like nine or 10 games? But, the Q and A is one of my favorite parts of the week too. So, I’m ready for that to get rolling after we kind of give our picks here as well. So, Wednesday is always a fun show.

Gary Segars:

Yeah. The analysis is always a good time, but I’m telling you. That Q and A segment, especially on Wednesdays when everything is just a free for all… I certainly love it. Certainly love it. All right. Let’s go ahead and let everybody know. Go ahead and hit that like button if you would so kindly. We want to make sure that we get up to 100 likes pretty quickly. For whatever reason, however it works on the back end, that helps out the algorithms. That’s a word that I enjoy saying because it makes you sound smart. So, the algorithm will work if you guys hit that like button, so go ahead and do that. Make sure that you are subscribed to the channel. You need to do that in order to be involved in the chat and of course we have a fantastic community that tunes in for this show every Tuesday and Wednesday.

When you hit that subscribe button, go ahead and hit the notification bell. It’ll let you know when we go live. And, as I said, that is every Tuesday and Wednesday at 1:00 p.m. Eastern time. Along with that, we do have the podcast as well. If you can’t be here for the live show, we understand. We would prefer that you be here for the live show, but if you can’t, you can always listen on your podcast app, whether that’s Apple, Spotify, et cetera. If you’re headed to the gym, driving to work, whatever it is, whenever you have time to listen, we appreciate that too. Give us some nice five star written reviews over at Apple and of course at Spotify. Spotify’s the… I went blank for a second.

All right, gentlemen. Let’s go on and do the recap thus far on what we have done on the season, let you know where we stand. We try and be as transparent as possible. If we’re losing, we’re going to tell you, that way you can fade us. If we’re winning, we’re certainly going to tell you, that way you can tail us. So far on the season, overall, 60-38-3. That is 61.22% against the number. Not too bad. I am sitting at 24-12-2. Kyle is 15-10. Parker, 21-16-1. So, some things have certainly looked up for the first part of this season. We are quickly, quickly getting to the second half of the football season. Good gracious. And, it feels like it just got here.

Guys, let’s go on and jump into it. We got some big ones to hit. We got a lot of games to talk about. Let’s hit the first one here. We’re moving to the Big 12. Oklahoma State at TCU. TCU is a four point favorite at home. Total of 62 and a half. And, this one at Amon G. Carter Stadium. It’s going to be fantastic in Fort Worth. Just fantastic. Oklahoma State won this game 63 to 17 last year. Parker, I’m going to let you start us off with this. Look, TCU has not fared exactly well against Oklahoma State as of late, but last year was certainly a different kind of TCU team. What are you seeing in this matchup so far this year?

Parker Fleming:

ESPN doesn’t have play by play data for the 2021 TCU-Oklahoma State game, Gary, so it doesn’t exist as far as I’m concerned.

Gary Segars:

I understand.

Parker Fleming:

That was definitely…

Gary Segars:

[inaudible 00:04:34]

Parker Fleming:

That was definitely a good recognition that the… Things can always get worse and while the Baylor win after the departure of Gary Patterson was fun, some obvious flaws and some teams can be outcoached and emotion will only get you so far. But, this TCU-Oklahoma State page has actually… I said page because I pulled up the page. Matchup has been really pretty competitive lately. A lot of one score games here and a lot of good coaching matchups. Really, there’s only been two kind of… There’s only been one blowout since 2017 even as TCU has struggled recently. They’ve been one score games and TCU is actually three and two in the last five games against Oklahoma State. So, really good matchup between these two teams.

I was actually a little bit shocked that Oklahoma State wasn’t the favorite even on the road here, but it does appear that there are some legitimate concerns about the quality of their schedule and how they have performed against them. I did a… Just a little opponent adjustment to try and get a little bit more understanding of how they’ve played against the teams they’ve played and Oklahoma State is 56th in raw EPA per play margin. When I opponent adjusted, they moved into the seventies. And so, that doesn’t mean predictively I think they’re the 70th worst team in the nation or anything. Just means they have underwhelmed against a weak schedule and that’s been an issue.

Specifically on offense, they can’t get the run defense going. 90th in EPA per rush and they’re 75th in rushing success rate. So, that’s a huge drop-off from Jaylen Warren and their rushing success from last year. They have some issues on the offensive line that I think they’ve actually plugged a little bit better, but their running back play hasn’t been great and it doesn’t look like they have that kind of extra gear to separate from another team like they’ve had in the past. Spencer Sanders has been pretty good. They’re 19th in EPA per pass. But, they’re super balanced. In rush rate over expected, minus one point seven percentage points fewer than the average team. That’s 56th. So, they’re kind of selecting their passes. It’s a kind of the run to Air Raid offense where they want to pound the ball if they can and then if you get one of those receivers in space over the top, they’re going to punish you there.

TCU, 81st in EPA per pass. So, I expect Spencer Sanders to have a big day. I expect this to be a track meet. By the numbers, I would have Oklahoma State covering on the road, I think especially given Gundy’s history as a coach at being able to kind of get these close games to go in his favor. But, the big number for me that I would be worried about if I was going to bet Oklahoma State is their EPA per pass has been 100th this season. I think earlier on the show we talked about against that Central Michigan team, hey, the number’s a little inflated. They left the starters in. It was kind of garbage time when it wasn’t. The passing defense has not gotten better and that defensive secondary for Oklahoma State obviously replaced a lot this year. It doesn’t look like they’re gelling as well as I thought they would. TCU is seventh in EPA per pass.

So, should be pointsy. Would definitely flirt with an over here. Would lean slightly towards Oklahoma State covering on the road. But, this is… This is one where you have two teams that haven’t played very tough schedules. We’re going to learn who the real front runner for the Big 12 championship game is after this weekend.

Gary Segars:

Most, most certainly. Yeah. When you look at what Oklahoma State has done, you talked about expecting them to maybe be favored even on the road. They are nine and oh against the spread on the road against winning teams. TCU, however, four, oh and one against the spread so far this season. It seems like two trends that are just going head to head with each other. Max Duggan, number two in QBR in FBS. I mean, that’s… You brought up how efficient the offense is for TCU. That Sonny Dykes offense is rolling. They finally got Quentin Johnston rolling last week. Number five PPA per drive on offense. Number 74 PPA per drive on defense, however, so the defense not great but they have faced some pretty interesting… Some pretty interesting offenses. I will say Kansas for sure is incredibly creative.

When you look at everything else that’s going on as far as Oklahoma State against the run, you mentioned it. I mean, they are… They’re okay against the run. Their defensive line is very, very good, but that back seven has not exactly impressed. They’re number 97 PPA per pass as far as my numbers are concerned. They’ve got issues with explosives on defense and that’s the biggest thing, is both teams have issues with explosive plays. They’re just terrible at stopping those, so we could see a lot of big time plays in this game because both offenses are great at creating them. That Gundy offense is certainly back up and running.

The underdog is six and one against the spread in the last seven. The home team is four and oh against the spread in the last four in this matchup. Kyle, moving it over to you, the offense has been surprising with Spencer Sanders thus far for Oklahoma State. What do you see from this Cowboys team and the Horned Frogs?

Kyle Hunter:

Yeah. I think the Oklahoma State defense has been a lot worse than anybody expected. You know? Knowles was a big loss certainly but… And, they lost quite a bit of talent from last year’s team but I still expected them to be quite a bit better than this. I have them at 94th in total EPA against the pass and also 56th in yards per play allowed at this point in the season. I mean, like Parker said, they haven’t played that tough of a schedule. To be at that point is really surprising. TCU is the best offense they’ve seen yet, so how are they going to fare against them?

I have this total at 69 and I know that no matter what, I can’t take an under in this game. It’s kind of hard to take an over because the pace from TCU is not quite what I would want it to be, but explosive plays are going to be there. Oklahoma State just three point four eight yards per carry in their two Big 12 games so far this year. I mean, that’s really concerning to me. They’re 81st in run blocking grade at PFF and 68th in pass blocking grade. So, I think this offensive line is holding back the offense from what it could be. TCU’s offense has been fantastic. The explosiveness they have on offense is what’s surprised me the most. Second in the country in explosiveness. 21 plays of 30 yards or more already this year. That’s fantastic stuff. Gundy… I’ve said this before. He’s 60% ATS all time. He’s a hard guy to bet against. You’ve lost money if you just go betting against him consistently.

But, I will say he is just 52% against the spread as a dog, so he’s done really well as a favorite. It’s kind of interesting. In this one, the one big edge though Oklahoma State has is special teams. They have very good special teams. In a tight game, maybe that makes the difference. I tend to lean TCU here, but I hate that the line’s up to four. I’m just going to give a very slight lean here to TCU.

Gary Segars:

Yeah. This thing opened TCU minus three at BetUS. It’s moved around a bit. I think it got under three for just a little bit. It has since of course jumped all the way up to four. It is sitting on another key number. No official play from us here. I think all of us would lean… Well, I say that. Myself and Kyle would lean TCU. I believe, Parker, you said you would lean Oklahoma State with the four. Right? So, it’s…

Parker Fleming:

Saturday… Saturday morning, I’ll lean TCU in my heart, so.

Gary Segars:

It makes sense. When you’re looking at the numbers, that’s a whole different thing than betting with the heart. So, yeah. It’s… This is a weird one, so no official play here just based on the numbers. Not a real clear advantage right now. But, I mean, honestly wouldn’t be surprised to see either side win this thing maybe going away, depending on how this thing plays out.

Move along and we’ve got a very interesting one here. James Madison is headed to Georgia Southern, and James Madison a 12 and a half point favorite. The total sits at 67 on this one. Of course, the latest numbers at BetUS. And, you know, it seems like a high total but maybe… Maybe it shouldn’t be, depending upon what the turnover situation looks like in this game. It’s 4:00 p.m. Eastern time on ESPN Plus. It’s in Statesboro, so that’s one thing. James Madison is five and oh against the spread so far this year. I mean, just a lot of love for the Dukes this far.

Georgia Southern, however, seven and two against the spread in their last nine games. They are 10 and three against the spread against winning teams. They somehow find a way to fight and stay in ball games that maybe you wouldn’t think that they would be able to. I look at this. I mean, James Madison entered the AP poll for the first time ever this year. Of course, this is their first year in the FBS. They are not eligible for a bowl game. They are not eligible to win the Sun Belt. And yet, they are dominating the competition. Their defense has been absolutely fantastic. But, even more so surprising than that is the quarterback, Todd Centeio. 75% completion percentage on the year. He’s… Excuse me. 75% last week, 394 yards and four touchdowns against Arkansas State. The defense, it… As I mentioned, incredibly dominant. Number six in PPA per drive. They are the best against the run. I mean, they’re ranked in… They’re ranked number one in almost every category as far as run defense is concerned.

Georgia Southern is great on offense. They’re number 19 in PPA per drive. That defense is putrid. I mean, number 124 PPA per drive. Kyle Vantrease last week… The numbers look good overall if you take out the interceptions. 359 yards passing, three touchdowns, threw four picks. I mean, just completely gives the game away. James Madison could eat in this game. Kyle, I’m going to move it over to you. There’s no weakness here that I can find with James Madison. How do you feel?

Kyle Hunter:

Yeah. I’m going to try to be succinct if I can. I have a lot of thoughts about this game. This is a really interesting one because James Madison unbeaten ATS. You get this far in the season, you’re unbeaten ATS, I want to find a reason to bet against you because everybody’s going to like how well you’ve been doing. You’ve been making teams money. The contrarian in me wants to bet the other side. As I looked at this game more and more, I can’t bet the other side in this one. The Dukes have been an absolute machine this year. I’m not even sure that the oddsmakers have caught up with them yet.

The two biggest strengths of this team are the run defense, like Gary said. Tremendous run defense. Against the run, one point four two yards per carry, which is just insane. They’re second in rushing success rate allowed. Against the pass, James Madison hasn’t been as good. They’re 49th in opponent QBR. And, I looked at this one really closely last night. Here I am at 2:00 a.m. in the morning looking at this game and Kyle Vantrease and Georgia Southern… I’m looking at his PFF stats. Vantrease really can’t be trusted. I don’t trust his decision-making at all.

A closer look at his passing profile… Vantrease has three touchdowns and eight interceptions on throws between the numbers. I don’t like that at all. It’s a guy that center of the field is really bothering him. All the bodies in there. You’re making way too many bad decisions. And, he has 14 turnover worthy plays in the last four games. We’ve seen them turn into turnovers a lot. Against… Against James Madison, I think they probably will too. You know, and James Madison opportunistic enough defense.

I think Georgia Southern moves the ball in this game. I think they’ll move the ball quite a bit through the air. But, Vantrease is likely to make some big mistakes and you can’t afford those against this good of a team. Todd Centeio with that 91.0 PFF grade and 96.1 PFF grade on deep throws. I mean, just a great deep ball, so his big time throws have been insane. I cannot believe, but I think the single biggest surprise I’ve had of this season is that Todd Centeio has been this amazing here after he struggled at Colorado State the way he did. Great job there by him.

I have two leans in this game, honestly. The first is the over. I think the over going up has made some sense. My concern with taking the over is I think Georgia Southern might move the ball a decent amount down the field and then throw a pick in the red zone, things like that. If you’re having issues like Kyle Vantrease is between the numbers, when things tighten up in the red zone, you usually have a lot of trouble too. So, I don’t find that to be a good look for Georgia Southern. I don’t really want to bet James Madison when everybody and their brother has been making a ton of money on them, but that’s the way I would lean in this game.

Gary Segars:

That does absolutely make sense. We’ll move it over to you, Parker, on this. I guess the only thing that you can really look at is the fact that James Madison has played the number 126 strength of schedule, but when you look at what they did against App State, when you look at what they did last week against Arkansas State, who had really been covering against everybody, this just looks like a fantastic football team and you know that the guys at Colorado State have just got to be kicking themselves that they had a quarterback that was this good that they either did not know how to develop or didn’t really know what to do with him. Right?

Parker Fleming:

Yeah. I think I said that last week.

Gary Segars:

Yeah.

Parker Fleming:

And, Jay Norvell went and tried to fight the other coach or something crazy happened at halftime. So, yeah. There’s all sorts of problems at Colorado State that maybe a really good quarterback could have… Could eased up a little bit. Kyle, I agree with you and I thought about this kind of in terms of the spot and in terms of the, all right, at some point the market’s going to correct. Right? At some point, the shoe is going to drop and that very well could be this game. But, I do wonder if it’s not kind of a case of common knowledge. Like, you know on The Princess Bride when he’s like, “All right. This cup has the poison and you know that I know that I know that you know that you know.” And, I wonder if there’s a little bit of recursiveness in kind of the understanding of, hey, smart bettors know that we’re going to correct our value at some point. Maybe we over-correct, like.

And so, anyway, all that to say the spot is interesting to me but I do think that the completeness of James Madison as a football team and the obvious flaws of Georgia Southern are really going to be an issue. So, Georgia Southern is throwing the ball a ton. Minus 11.3 percentage points in rush rate over expected. That’s seventh in the country in terms of most passing. But, they’re awful on early downs. 78th in early downs EPA. They’re sixth in third and fourth down success. So, what that tells me is they really can’t move the ball early. They rely on Kyle Vantrease in third and long, third and medium situations, and have been able to succeed there against a weak schedule.

James Madison is first in the nation absolutely in third and fourth down success allowed on defense. That’s not a recipe to move the ball against this James Madison team. I really think that Georgia Southern’s offense, which is the only redeeming factor of this team at all, is going to struggle not only to finish drives but even to create scoring opportunities. They’re 29th in quality possession rate, 61.4%. James Madison is third, allowing only 28.3. So, I don’t believe… Excuse me. I don’t believe that Georgia Southern is going to be able to maximize their strength against James Madison because their strength — offense and specifically third down offense — matches up with James Madison’s strength, defense, specifically third down defense.

So, the offense is moot there. I think that an over is enticing because of the quality of both offenses, but exactly like you said, I don’t know that Georgia Southern can finish drives well enough, at a high enough rate to make this over worth it. On the flip side, James Madison’s offense is relatively worse than their defense. It’s their weaker unit. It’s still incredible. 13th in EPA per pass, 80th in EPA per rush. They’re rushing six point zero percentage points more than the average team. That’s 103rd slowest in the nation. So, a lot of that rushing efficiency is they’re just committing to we’re going to try and move the ball on the ground, move the ball on the ground, and we know Todd Centeio can hit you over the top if we need to get that kind of big strike and move the ball there. They’re fifth in quality possession rate and they’re fifth in field position, which I have circled because Georgia Southern is 81st in net field position there.

So, a lot of advantages for James Madison in terms of special teams, coaching and being able to move the ball through the air. I think that I liked this a lot more when it opened at, I believe, 10 and a half, and has moved all the way up here. But, I still like this anything shy of two touchdowns. I think that James Madison is the bet here.

Gary Segars:

Let’s make it official. Parker, you’re going to ride with the Dukes minus 12 and a half. You’re right. It did open at 10 and the total was at 64. That total now all the way up to 67. Going to be a good time I think in Statesboro. They think they’ve got a shot to be able to knock off James Madison. I am not totally convinced. So, should be a fun game on ESPN Plus on Saturday afternoon.

Moving along. Utah State heads to Colorado State and the Aggies are an 11 point favorite. The total sits at 45 and a half here. This is interesting because Utah State seems to be moving in a good, good direction, and you knew that Blake Anderson was going to eventually figure this out. But, it feels like Cooper Legas, the quarterback, has kind of sparked a revival here for the Aggies. 13 carries, 76 yards last week and one touchdown against Air Force, along with 18 out of 23 passing for 215 yards, two touchdowns. He did have the one interception. But, they upset Air Force as nearly a double digit underdog last week. This was… Or, not… I guess at closing it was a double digit underdog. Utah State looks significantly better now than they did at the beginning of the season. They have finally gotten some chemistry going with those new wide receivers, Brian Cobbs especially.

Colorado State, on the other side, got their first win against Nevada last week. But, man, they looked awful. Kyle, I want to start with you here. They only had 78 yards passing, only two touchdowns last week, and both of those touchdowns for Colorado State were a fumble return and an interception return and yet that was enough to be able to beat Nevada. Utah State, six and one against the spread on the road in their last seven. This Blake Anderson team appears to be rounding into form. How do you feel about this one?

Kyle Hunter:

Yeah. I mean, I think Cooper Legas looked really good last week. I thought that he looked like the answer at quarterback that they really need. While watching this game, I thought, “Wow. This dude’s a really good runner.” I mean, very quick, very shifty. He had four runs of 10 yards or more. Air Force didn’t look very good but I also think that Utah State looks much improved. This is a team that… Like you said, Blake Anderson’s a really good coach. They have too much talent to be suffering like they were at the beginning of the season. They’re not that bad and Colorado State coming off that win over Nevada… I kind of wish I hadn’t watched as much of that game as I did. That was not an impressive win. Nevada was really terrible. They gave them the game in that one. I have Nevada’s season win total under, so I was certainly happy, but I was wondering how Colorado State was going to find a way to lose that game. They didn’t quite do it.

How about that Air Raid attack of Colorado State that had like 19 yards passing into the fourth quarter? They finished with 78 yards passing. Tory Horton’s really… They have one option at wide receiver. If he’s not open, they’re in trouble. Very weak at wide receiver overall. And, Colorado State… I think that this hasn’t probably gotten talked about as much as it normally would because they’ve been so bad, but everybody’s leaving and going into the transfer portal. They’ve had three guys in the last week go to the portal. One of them, Tywan Francis, 32 tackles. Definitely a situation that is not great there.

I don’t even know… At this point, I don’t think the chemistry can be considered very good. They had all these guys come to Colorado State over from Nevada. They’re not having the success that they expected to have. Utah State’s season long stats don’t look good, but we talked about a team yesterday that I don’t think you should look at their season long stats and that’s Navy. I think Utah State would be the same. I think this team’s much better than what it looks like on paper. They started oh and four ATS. They’ve covered the last two. I think they’re still rated too lowly. This is a Utah State team that defensively still not very good but I’m not terribly concerned that Colorado State’s going to put up very many points based on their past history.

Offensively, I think this Utah State offense is going to be much better now with Cooper Legas running it. I think him running the way he does and being the dual threat is going to help them quite a bit. Utah State has some good receivers, you know? Big difference in the receivers at Utah State versus Colorado State. So, I have a pretty strong lean here to

PART 1 OF 4 ENDS [00:24:04]

Kyle Hunter:

Utah State versus Colorado State. So I have a pretty strong lean here to Utah State and I might be putting a little pizza money on this one.

Gary Segars:

I might be riding alongside you on that. Colorado State Rush Defense may be able to force some stops here and there, but overall, Utah State is just developing much better with their young talent as opposed to what Colorado State is doing in the first year under Jay Norvell. Parker, Let’s toss it over to you. Utah State has the field position advantage. Colorado State is one in 10 against the spread in their last 11 games. Just things are not going well for that program in Fort Collins right now. How are you breaking this one down?

Parker Fleming:

Yes, Gary reign me in on this, but I will say really quickly, it is a darn shame that Norvell had some issues with Nevada investing in infrastructure left for Colorado State who was going to invest in this infrastructure and then Nevada ended up spending the money anyway, and both teams are worse off for this whole thing. There’s just a weird problem in college football at the lower levels of this investment. It’s frustrating cause I like Norvell and wanted him to succeed at Colorado State. Still plenty of time to do that. I did just see 29 seconds ago that Colorado State will start Giles Pooler, who’s a name I don’t know because he is their third string quarterback. Their third quarterback they’ve started in three games, so trying to switch some stuff up there. As for the Colorado State Run defense, which I think is the one argument you can make for maybe Colorado State will cover their 33rd in EPA per rush.

There’s 60th and EPA per pass. Guys, when we see a big split, what do we think? Selection. Their pass defense is so much worse than the run defense. You don’t have to run against them. I think that the threat with Legas here and his legs will be a little bit too much for Colorado State to handle. There’s some pacing issues that I’d worry about. Utah State is 114th in Rush Rate Over Expected. Colorado State is 77th, but I think that Utah State should be able to move the ball the way they’ve looked the last two games. Again, it’s important to wait more games recently on the whole Utah state is 121st in EPA margin. Colorado State is 128th. I am wondering though, if we’re not getting kind of a Ewing theory situation with Legas at quarterback here with Logan Bonner out.

One big thing I’ve noticed as he’s running, he’s mostly running gap schemes place and that requires a lot more movement from the offensive lineman, right? So I think you could make two arguments. Maybe the offensive linemen weren’t able to do that as well with Bonner and so they weren’t running as many gap schemes or maybe they were running as many gap schemes and the offensive line hadn’t figured out how to do it yet, and the last couple weeks it’s clicked and they’ve got a better flow.

I think the quarterback that has a dual threat is very mobile, should be too much for this Colorado state defense who really has not been tested in the run game. I like Utah State here. The last thing that I think will stand out is Colorado State is a 130th in early Downs EPA on offense and Utah State’s defense has not been good this year, 94th overall, but they are 60th on early downs. So if they can get Colorado State into holes knowing that Colorado’s super one-dimensional on offense, those third down numbers I think should go a lot better for Utah State, should be able to get off the field quickly and ride their mobile quarterback to a win and a cover on the road here. So I’m going to make that an official pick. I’m going to take Utah State here.

Gary Segars:

I like it. Let’s make it official. Parker going to ride with the Aggies to cover 11 at Colorado State. I cannot disagree with that my friend. Cannot disagree. All right, let me go ahead and tell everybody we have NCAAF odds boost news. That’s right. BetUS every now and then is going to be boosting odds on certain bets. So we’re going to toss these out there right quick. Let’s see. Marshall to win by one to six points for tonight’s game is now +500. It was +375 Khalan Laborn to score the first touchdown and Marshall to win was +400. That is now up to +475. Let’s see, total first half points for tonight under 23.5 was -105. It is now +120 and for Saturday, Penn State/Michigan special team or defensive touchdown scored yes was +230.

It is now plus two 60. So make sure if you like any of those wagers to make sure that you go and take advantage of that over at BetUS. Along with that, reminder: the podcast. If you can’t be here live, make sure that you are subscribed to the podcast. It is the Bet US Football Show. It is both the college football feed and the NFL feed, so all of your football needs for the week. You can find an audio form over there, Apple, Spotify, et cetera. Leave a nice five star review, jump into the chat. The Q and A at the end of the show of course is always our most entertaining segment, I believe of the week and especially the one on Wednesday when it is just wide open, we can hit on everything that you want to know about. So make sure that you toss in some questions for that.

Those will be curated and we will pick out the best ones to hit and then try and hit as many more as we possibly can along with that. Oh yeah, I see here like the video we’ve already gotten over a hundred likes. We certainly appreciate you for doing that especially early. Got it before the first 30 minutes were up. So make sure that you hit that like button again. I don’t think you could do it twice, but if you haven’t done it, go ahead and hit the like button. We want to make sure that we get that number up as big as possible because it helps out the algorithm, however that works. So subscribe to the channel if you’ve not already. We’re trying to get to 10K and we are getting very, very close. If you’re not subscribed and the majority of our listenership or viewership, whatever it’s called on YouTube is unsubscribe.

So hit that subscribe button, help us out. Let us get the 10K. That certainly helps things. Oh yes, and go and check out yesterday’s show if you missed it. I think I said that at the top of the show, but go and check out yesterday’s show. All right, we’re moving right along. We got another fun one. This is another Sunbelt matchup and it’s weird to say it’s a Sunbelt matchup because this is the first time that these two have played as conference opponents. Arkansas State heads to Hattiesburg to take on Southern Miss. Southern Miss a four point favorite at Home. Will Hall’s team has dealt with injuries for the last couple of years now. I mean, just all kinds of stuff going on with that team. The total sits at 54.5. And gentlemen, this one is very interesting. The latest lines of course over at BetUS. MM Roberts Stadium has been very supportive of this team.

They are pretty good. Arkansas State is 5-0 against the spread on the road. They’re 5-1 against the spread in their last six Overall. Southern Miss however, they didn’t cover last week at Troy, but before that they had covered seven straight games. They have been finding ways to stay in these games even when they lose. They are 4-0 against the spread after a straight up loss as they did lose to Troy last week. Parker, I want to start with you here. Arkansas State cannot stop the pass. They just, they’re not good at it. Number 126 in passing explosiveness allowed. Their number 127 PPA per pass, but they are I guess number 72 PPA per rush. So maybe there’s something there. I don’t know what to make of this Arkansas State team and while Southern Miss’ numbers are not exactly great. I do think that there’s maybe a little bit of an edge on Southern miss here. How do you feel about this?

Parker Fleming:

I would agree with a slight edge on Southern Miss. One, my fun fact that Southern Miss has a transitive land over Oklahoma gets a little less fun every week as we see what state the Oklahoma football program is in right now. But Southern Miss still, they beat Tulane who’s a pretty good team and I think this year showing a little bit of proof of concept of like, Hey, if we could just get our depth to be healthy and kind of get all of our guys on the field, maybe we could build towards something. They’re 43rd in defensive EPA per play. Specifically really bad against the rush, a little bit better against the pass. I’m tempted to say, Hey, Arkansas State has only been good against the pass or are only good in passing situations. They’re 34th in EPA per pass on offense. Southern Miss is 11th in EPA per pass for defense.

Maybe that’s an edge for Southern Miss’s defense, but again, they’re 100th in EPA per rush, so it looks like they’re really having to deal with the rush game and not being tested too much in the passing game. I think that there’s kind of two things that are pretty interesting to me about Arkansas State’s offense. One, they’re 84th in quality possession rate. They are 22nd in points per quality possession, so they’re not getting the ball across the 40. They’re only scoring on big plays and those are not sustainable over time. Southern miss is 25th in points per quality possession despite allowing the 101st worst quality possession rate. So they’re allowing a lot of quality possessions, but they’re stopping them and not allowing those big explosive scores. That’s kind of an almost funhouse mirror image on offense versus defense here.

Last thing that I think would give an edge to Southern Miss is the field position advantage. Arkansas’s State is 56th in starting field position or net starting field position. Southern Miss is 23rd. So I think there might be a slight coaching edge here to Southern Miss as well. In addition to some of that kind of finishing ability on defense that should stall this Arkansas State offense, I will just… I’m obligated to note that Arkansas State is continuing to put together a disastrously impressive two year stretch of bad defense. The way that they’re sustainable. I think Kyle, you had that stat last year about number of 20 plus plays, they gave up more 20 plus plays last year than a couple people had over the last couple of years. I mean, it’s just absolutely absurd how bad this defense has been year over year. So certainly could understand a play for Southern Miss here.

Gary Segars:

I see. I was muted. I agree with you. I think this is a good Southern Miss team. I think they’ve got a big advantage here in this ballgame. Kyle, let’s move it over to you on this. The defensive strength on strength as far as the Arkansas State offense against the Southern Miss Defense. Southern Miss certainly has an advantage here. There is a thing to watch here. Arkansas State number 18 in giveaways per game and Southern Miss number 130 in giveaways per game. So that’s maybe something to watch out for. If Southern Miss turns the football over, this could certainly go in a not good direction for Southern Miss. Kyle, Blackman’s been okay for Arkansas State. He has certainly been, what’s the word I’m looking for? Competent. I guess. What do you see in this matchup?

Kyle Hunter:

So I see that Southern Miss has played a much tougher schedule. I mean, Arkansas State played Ohio State, but other than that, they really haven’t played a tough schedule. Southern Miss 58th in strength of schedule on [inaudible 00:34:28] and Arkansas State 90th. And even with that tough schedule, Southern Miss +0.2 yards per play margin, Arkansas State and ugly -1.29 yards per play margin. Southern Miss should have beaten Liberty in game one. That was kind of a bad beat. They did beat Tulane on the road and you look at the step down in competition for them. Southern Miss, they played the likes of Miami, Tulane, Troy, especially on defense. I mean, think about the difference between teams like Tulane and Troy and now you go to Arkansas State. Southern Miss’s running game hasn’t been working that well of late, but I think that probably changes in a game against Arkansas State.

The really good, fantastic defensive line for Troy is tough to run against for anybody. Arkansas State, not even close to that level. Wilke has come in and honestly not been very good at quarterback for Southern Miss, but this Arkansas state secondary is really bad. I mean very, very bad would be the worst secondary he’s seen yet certainly. They’re 130th out of 131 in QBR allowed. Like I said, there’s constantly people wide open deep. They give up so many big plays. I think Southern Miss offense has more success in this game and defensively Southern Miss is a pretty good team. 22nd success rate allowed Arkansas State has regressed on offense. Thanks in large part to a really bad offensive line. They’ve been very weak on the line. I think Southern Miss is a better coached team by a good amount here. I’m going to lay the short number here with Southern Miss. I think this is kind of one of those sneaky under the radar games where Southern Miss has played a much tougher schedule. Arkansas State hasn’t shown me anything that would make me want to bet them here. I’ll take Southern Miss.

Gary Segars:

I like it, I like it. Let’s go ahead and make it official. Kyle is going to ride with the Golden Eagles of Southern Mississippi. I can understand it. I can certainly… I like Will Hall. I like Will Hall a lot. All right, we’ll move along to the SEC and man, you talk about a big brand name game. This one of course 7:30 PM Eastern Time on… Excuse me, No, I think it’s 7:00 PM Eastern Time should be on ESPN. It’s LSU at Florida. Florida, a two and a half point favorite. The total sits at 51.5 Of course latest numbers at BetUS, Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, The Swamp, if you will. Look, Gainesville should be absolutely rocking for this one. LSU has done some pretty crazy things against Florida here recently. They won last year, 49 to 42 in Baton Rouge in what was the game that Ed Orgeron was fired immediately following, even though they won the game, The over is 4-0.

In the last four in this one the underdog is 6-0 against the spread. So LSU of course playing that role here, LSU 1-4 against the spread, their last five on the road, Florida 3-10 against the spread in their last 13 overall. This is a storyline game. How bitter is Billy Napier that LSU would not even interview him? I’m very curious and will that of course spill over to the players? It likely doesn’t matter in the grand scheme of things. Neither team has been great. They’re both four and two. The offenses are meh, the defenses are okay. Florida’s defense, maybe the lesser of the two. Florida 2-7 straight up. 3-5-1 against the spread in the last eight against LSU. I mean the Tigers have done just not whatever they want, but they have found a way to come out on top much more often than not.

The quarterback Richardson has certainly shown moments, but the whole offense is inconsistent. Their number 32 PPA per drive, but their number 80 in success rate. The defense cannot stop the run. Their number 100 in PPA per rush allowed. And then on the other side, LSU’s left tackle Will Campbell still having health issues. LSU offense, not exactly consistent. They’re not built to come from behind as you saw against Tennessee last week. They can’t seem to get the wide receivers going. They’re number 92 in PPA per pass. Kyle, I’m going to start with you here. LSU is number six in PPA per rush, which certainly doesn’t bode well for Florida’s defense. How are you breaking this game down?

Kyle Hunter:

I still think that LSU’s best rushing play though is just Jayden Daniels scrambling on some busted play. I mean Jayden Daniels is still not a very good passer. He is very good when he is out in the open field and trying to make guys miss, I said it last week, I really don’t like teams that their best offense is a broken play. Against a good team you would think that that doesn’t work very well. Now defensively, I don’t know that I would call Florida very good especially against the run. So it’s a bit hard to say what will happen there. I think there is… What are we week seven here? It’s hard to say that we’re in week seven and I really still don’t know who either of these teams are. I don’t think they’re very good, but I know that they’re not a great team. But I don’t know that we know who has the higher ceiling of these two teams. We haven’t seen the upside.

Gary Segars:

Hey, let me interrupt you. I would venture to say that these two teams don’t actually know who they are.

Kyle Hunter:

That’s a fair point. I think that’s part of the problem, right? So they don’t even really have an identity. I think that makes it hard to bet on teams like this or even against a team because I don’t know what I’m going to get from these two. Now Florida is +1.58 in yards per play margin, which is 21st in the country. LSU is 54th in the country. Kayshon Boutte has really been disappointing compared to what his expectations were coming into the season. You could say that some of that is because Daniels is not a very consistent passer. I think that’s probably some of it. Daniels has one turnover worthy play, but only three big time throws. So like we talked about last week, just not taking any of those chances. Maybe he scrambles too soon, I don’t know. But the offensive line hasn’t been great in front of him either.

Can LSU line up and run it consistently because Florida is a 111th in success rate allowed, and I want Parker to look at this one because Florida’s offense, EPA per play when passing. I want to make sure that I have the right number here, but because it looks really bad. But Florida’s offense when passing is about as bad as anybody in the country. Anthony Richardson and the Florida Run game very dependent on running. The passing attack has been terrible. Brian Kelly, 34-16-2 ATS in his last 52 as an underdog. Does that matter in this game? I don’t know. Those were at Notre Dame. The swamp should be fired up in this one. Really good home field advantage. I really don’t know what to do with this one. I guess I’ll lean Florida, but not a strong feeling from me.

Gary Segars:

Yeah, [inaudible 00:41:05] just jumped into the chat. He said LSY starting offensive guard Garrett Dillinger likely out for two weeks as well to go along with Campbell and he’s right. I completely forgot to put that in the notes. So you’ve got some offensive line issues for LSU, but Kyle, I mean exactly what you’re talking about, that Florida passing game, it did have that one spark against Tennessee where they were coming from behind and somehow Anthony Richardson was able to find enough open plays and was able to run around in the backfield, et cetera. And I think he threw for what, 400 something yards in that ballgame. I mean just the total in that game was more than the three previous combined games. Just nuts. Parker, moving over to you. I want to take LSU because I look at the run differential there between LSU running offense, but I don’t know that it’s a pure running offense. I think it’s more just Jayden Daniels scrambling and I wonder if Florida’s athleticism is going to allow that to happen. What are you seeing in this one?

Parker Fleming:

I think that’s a great point because there is entirely something different with Florida having the run fit issues that they’ve had in the past and kind of that, hey, we can’t really… Like if you run counter on us, we just can’t tackle you. Which was kind of the issue last year. And it definitely is a little bit different to exploit those when Florida has the opportunity to create some havoc in that run game and maybe contain Jayden Daniels in a different way than they would just in a straight up design run play. And so I have Florida’s pass defense at 49th, their rush defense at a 118th. We know what that means. Their rush defense is probably getting picked on a little bit and LSU is 24th in EPA per rush, only 65th in EPA per pass. But big difference is LSU has actually been pretty okay on early downs.

32nd in early downs EPA compared to Florida’s 88th early downs EPA allowed. So LSU should be able to… In kind of neutral football, open script, not accounting for context of the guards being out or the situational spot of going to the swamp for sure should be able to move the ball a little bit better on early downs than Florida does. Yeah, as for the Florida offense, Kyle, I have them at 76th than EPA per pass, but I do limit the damage that an interception can do. I think I’ve talked about this before in the show, but if somebody returns an interception for the touchdown, that’s not necessarily reflective of passing ability and quarterback play. And so I put a cap on that and average that out to the median of the interception. So Anthony Richardson with five touchdowns in seven interceptions this season. I think if you include all of those to their full value would definitely be one of the worst kind of EPA per play quarterbacks.

But on average I have them about 76, they’re 8th in EPA per rush and they’re rushing 6.1% more than the average team that’s 104th in the nation. So high volume rushing against an LSU defense that hasn’t really gotten pushed around in the run game, 32nd in EPA per rush and 59th in rushing success rate allowed. So that’ll be interesting to see. Both teams are pretty bad in starting field positions. So I wonder what kind of breaks and if a special teams play doesn’t end up making the difference here just because both of them have not really gotten advantages in special teams play overall. I would be inclined to go with Florida State at home. My numbers… Just again without any context, without injuries or the spot of Billy Napier and the revenge game would slightly favor LSU. Mostly based on the fact that they’re passing pretty decently when Jayden Daniels can scramble and kind of create openness.

But there’s an inherent ceiling on this LSU offense. So I don’t know that I trust them or Florida. Jayden Daniels has an average depth of target of 7.1. They can’t get the ball down field to save their lives. So there’s too much variance for me to think that there’s a smart play in this game just because there’s so much nonsense in a rivalry game like this. And because both offenses really have been diametrically opposite week to week, depending on how they prepare and whether they’re feeling good or what they have for breakfast on Saturday morning. So I don’t have a strong lean in this game.

Gary Segars:

Yeah, I’m with you. I want to lean LSU, which by the way, Bob in the chat called me out on it, I missed Brian Kelly said this morning on the SEC coach’s teleconference that left tackle Will Campbell got out of the hospital on Monday, practiced with the team on Tuesday, he is good to go. He’s going to play this weekend. So now Dellinger is still out, but you do get Campbell back. So that’s a good thing, I guess. But there’s still so much up in the air with these two teams that I don’t know that there is a clear advantage as far as that number is concerned. So no official play from us on that one. We’ll move into another massive game, just absolutely massive. Clemson heads to Florida State and the Tigers are a four point favorite on the road. The total sits at 51.5 Here.

It’s at Doak Campbell Stadium. Florida State of course is coming in with two straight losses. So I feel like the atmosphere, while it is still going to be jumping in that place, it might have been a little more so had they been able to pull out that win at Raleigh last week. I know that Parker, of course if NC State was going to win the game, you wanted them to at least cover, right? Otherwise, I’m sure you’re like me and you wanted Florida State to just win that thing out, right? Clemson won this game 30 to 20 last year. Good gracious, if I can read my own numbers. Clemson is 6-0 straight up in the last six. They’re 4-0 against the spread of the last four against Florida State. So they have kind of dominated the series a bit as of late.

Clemson is 5-1 against the spread in their last six on the road. Florida State in their last six conference games is 5-1 against the spread as well. So you got two trends that are kind of hitting at each other. DJ Uiagalelei is looking pretty good. Number 43 QBR. He’s got 14 touchdowns to only two interceptions so far so good on the season. Kyle, let’s move it over to you. The offense has improved substantially it appears, and he’s actually trusting his wide receivers more this year than he did last season. I don’t know if that had to do with the offensive line, et cetera, but the offensive line number 37 in havoc rate allowed, they’re not great at run blocking number 83 in stuff rate. How are you looking at this Clemson team going up against what appears to be a pretty improved Florida State team as well?

Kyle Hunter:

I have to say first I have a lot of weaknesses as a person and I’m quick to point those out, but one of my biggest strengths is my memory. I remember this game really well last year. This is the horrible Underbeat where you rolled it like 50 years backwards. I just had to say that one time so…

Gary Segars:

I wouldn’t even bring it up.

Kyle Hunter:

Not going to go there again, but this will be the last time I go there. What a crazy game that was. Actually Florida State played well the majority of that game. I believe they were ahead most of that game and then blew it right at the end. Blew the cover, blew the under, just crazy game. This is a really strange line here this week guys. 80% of the bets on Clemson and the line has gone from six down to four. That definitely makes you wonder what’s going on…

PART 2 OF 4 ENDS [00:48:04]

Kyle Hunter:

That definitely makes you wonder what’s going on. The thing that I tried to think about why this might be this way, Florida State is 24th in yards per play margin. Clemson is 50th in yards per play margin. I know some guys blindly bet that type of thing. They just say, “Okay, look at the yards per play margin. I’ll take the plus money on the team that has the better yards per play margin.” I don’t like to do that personally, but I think that could have something to do with the line move here. Florida State’s not giving up many big plays. I think defensively they rank a terrible 115th in defensive line yards and 97th in success rate allowed overall. Will Shipley’s an underrated runner. I think he’s pretty good, 5.9 yards per attempt, already has 280 yards after contact this year, very impressive.

I think Clemson should run the ball well here. Clemson’s defense has had a bunch of injuries here lately. Hopefully, they can get Brian Bresee back, the star defensive tackle for this game. I think that quietly, like Gary just said, DJ has been putting together a really good season. I mean he has not been, I guess I wouldn’t say spectacular as far as stats, but just one interception, three turnover worthy plays and 19 big time throws, really good stuff, especially for a guy that struggled as much as he did last year. Certainly helps that the Clemson offensive line’s played better and the run game’s really working.

I don’t trust Florida State. I want to bet Clemson here in this spot. Florida State’s one of those teams that seems to win in the box score and find a way to lose the game. And we talked about that for a long time about Nebraska. Obviously, I’m not saying Florida State is Nebraska. But I get concerned about teams like that. We keep assuming that they’re going to finish games, they’re going to play better. Maybe there is something to the fact that they just turned it over way too much. I think Clemson’s the type of defense too that could force those turnovers. In this one, I’m surprised a bit perplexed about the line move, but I would lean Clemson here.

Gary Segars:

I like what you’re talking about there. I certainly do. Parker, I’ll toss this thing over to you. Clemson, number nine, exactly what Kyle was talking about, number nine in giveaways per game. Florida State’s number 36. Clemson, much better as far as penalties per game, number 55 penalties per game and Florida State number 114. There are certain little things with each of these teams that would lean me to go the way of Clemson. Yes, the line was shocking, but exactly what Kyle was talking about, the yards per play for Florida State has been really, really good. Now they didn’t out gain, it was either NC State or Wake Forest, one or the other. They didn’t out gain them but they did out yards per play them. I think it was Wake Forest.

But they are able to do some things. But man, when you don’t convert, when you don’t finish that thing, it leads me to believe you’re certainly not going to be able to do it against Clemson. And that defense, Brian Bresee is supposed to be back this weekend so that’s certainly an advantage for Clemson. Parker, how are you looking at this one?

Parker Fleming:

Shout out to Mark in the chat, numbers don’t lie. I do like Clemson here and I think that the biggest issue is Will Shipley and their rushing attack. Last year they really had no dimensionality in offense when Shipley was out and that really put a burden and a focus on DJ U to make plays and he collapsed in that moment. I think he’s gotten in a better head space, learned a little bit about decision making and definitely has some pressure taken off of him because they can run so well with him. So I think that Clemson’s offense has gotten to the point where they’re functioning and are able to move down the field. Their defense is excellent as ever. I have them at 15th in EPA per play. Florida State’s offense in raw EPA per play, unadjusted for opponent is 16th. And so, I mean exactly what you guys have said for a couple years now, Florida State looks like a team that is better than their record.

But at some point do you just not, does that just not hold? Is that just what you are is you’re playing games close but you’re losing them? I think that the biggest thing that Florida State would be able to exploit is that Clemson’s pass defense is 45th in EPA per play compared to third in EPA per rush and Florida State is 15th in passing offense. So maybe they could move there, but Florida State just doesn’t finish drives well at all. They’re 117th in points per quality possession despite posting a 13th best quality possession rate. Clemson, of course, 26th in quality possession rate allowed, 39th in points per quality possession. And Florida State’s offense really, really falls off on third downs. They’re 50th in third and fourth down success compared to eighth on early downs. Whereas Clemson gets a little better. 21st in early downs EPA, which of course in turn encourages that 10th best third and fourth down success rate.

So the last thing here is also going to be third downs on defense. Florida State 95th in early downs EPA. Clemson struggles. They are exactly zero on early downs EPA. They are barely staying on schedule. But Florida State is so bad on early downs, I think they’re going to get a benefit. And then Clemson’s making up a lot of it in those third down situations with Shipley and the run game, they’re 21st in third and fourth down success. Florida State, the Seminoles are 82nd. So I think that Clemson’s going to get a longer leash on early downs. They have a huge, huge floor, a very high floor with being able to clean up those third and fourth downs. I think they’ll move the ball down the field and I believe that Florida State will struggle to finish drives. Give me Clemson, give me the cover on the road.

Gary Segars:

I’m riding with you. Let’s go ahead and make it official. I like Clemson to cover the four here. Just a lot to like about this team. Everything that Parker just said basically was in my notes already along with all of the little intangibles, penalties, giveaways, et cetera. I really agree with Parker here. So yes, make it official, we are both going to ride Clemson to cover the four. I understand why the market would go and make this number a little shorter, but I’m going to go against it. I’m going to take Clemson along with Parker.

Reminder, go ahead and like the video. I see we got over 150, not too bad. Let’s see if we can hit 200. We certainly have enough people watching to be able to do that. That liking, excuse me, that liking the video helps us just magnificently as far as the quote unquote algorithm is concerned. So like the video, help us out during the live show and, of course, make sure that you are subscribed to the channel. We’re trying to hit 10 K here. I know a bunch of you are watching that are not subscribed. Go ahead and hit that subscribe button and that also allows you to get into the chat, which as you can see is hopping with Timmy and Julius and Anoop and Mark and [inaudible 00:54:33], everybody else. You guys are fantastic. So we’ll move along. Oh, jump into the chat for the Q and A at the end of the day, of course. And don’t forget about yesterday’s show.

Now we got a fun one in the PAC-12. This one’s been pointed out for quite some time. USC at Utah, Rice-Eccles Stadium, Salt Lake City, Utah, 8:00 PM Eastern Time on Fox. You got Caleb Williams going up against Cam Rising. You got that Kyle Winningham defense going up against that Lincoln Riley offense. I am excited about this one. Parker, we’re going to start with you here. Utah is 4-0 against the spread at home against winning teams in their last four. USC in their last five road games at 1-4 against the spread. Something’s got to give here.

Utah won this game last year 42 to 26. USC is three and two straight up, but two and three against the spread in their last five against Utah. If you look at Utah at home, it is an incredibly, I’m not going to say dangerous, but you get the idea, place to play. Utah is 22 and one straight up dating back to 2018. The only loss was 2020 to USC. I’m not going to say it’s revenge because, obviously, they got that last year, but another win at home might wipe that taste out of their mouths. Parker, how are you feeling about this one?

Parker Fleming:

I will say that personally I do have some pizza money on USC here, but that’s mostly a hedge against my under nine and a half bet, which is looking worse and worse as this offense looks better and better. So I’ll take an L there, I’ll admit that. That’s fine and just try to reclaim some of that. I am fascinated, Kyle’s going to talk about this. I thought Kyle would take an over here because these numbers are both really, really defensively are pretty bad for both teams. I have Utah at 84th, USC at 113th in success rate alone. So in terms of efficiency and moving the ball and creating opportunities for explosiveness, very high ceilings there. USC is sixth on offense, Utah is 27th. So Utah has been a little bit better than anyone USC has seen at limiting the explosive play.

They’ve given up some efficiency with that success rate, but they’re 34th in defensive EPA per play. So they haven’t allowed you to get that big play and kill them. They’re 10th in quality possession rate on offense, they’re 14th in quality possession ratio and echo ratio. So really controlling the game well. I think that Utah’s offense matches up pretty decently. They’re 24th in EPA per pass. They are rushing 1.7% more than the average team, that’s 84th. 54th in rushing EPA, USC’s defense 124th allowing almost a quarter point a play in the run game. I think that this for Utah is they’re hoping that this game is a better version of the Oregon State USC game where they don’t throw the game-numbing interception where they play a physical game, they hold Utah, or excuse me, they hold USC to few explosive plays and they’re able to fist fight their way out of this.

USC on the other hand, I think is just going to come in guns a blazing, 17th on EPA per pass. Their rushing game is a lot better than I think a lot of people think. Eighth in success rate, seventh in EPA per rush, 12th on early downs EPA, eighth in third and fourth down success. I think that they can move the ball. My numbers actually have this closer to a 50-50 split even when you account for Utah’s freakish at home behavior. My model not only accounts for who is at home, but who is at home where. And Utah at home in Salt Lake has been very, very good historically. So should be a fun matchup. I have this at 50-50 and again in full disclosure, pizza money on USC mostly as a hedge.

Gary Segars:

I can totally understand that. Kyle, let’s move it over to you. There’s a chance that Travis Dye and that number 10 PPA per rush offense for USC certainly goes off in this game because Utah is decent against the pass, number 24 in QBR allowed. So that’s certainly something and with Caleb Williams number 27 in the country in QBR, that’s a big thing. It looks like the two rushing games could get going here. And if that’s a way that it goes, maybe that total, maybe 64 and a half is about where it should be. How are you viewing this one?

Kyle Hunter:

So I’ve talked about before the season, I make out bets that I think I’m going to, I put a list of every single week and one of them that I had circled was I wanted to bet Utah this week. And I have to say I can’t bet it. I can’t bet it. So sorry to disappoint the guys in the chat that thought that I was going to bet Utah. Although you know what? I have my BetUS account open right now. I am going to put a little bit of pizza money on the over. Parker likes the over at least somewhat here. I thought I would like the over and the chat is pushing me to bet an over so I’m going to bet pizza money on the over. Both of these defenses have been pretty weak. I can’t believe Utah’s defense has been this bad, guys. I never expected them to be this bad. Parker’s talking about a USC under that he’s likely going to lose. I’m likely going to lose my Utah over. Gary, did you have Utah over as well as far as season win total?

Gary Segars:

Yes, I did. And you and I both I believe had Utah at just a, not pizza money but even less than that, just a little prayer on a playoff spot for Utah. That one is out the window with last week’s loss.

Kyle Hunter:

Right, that one’s gone. We will never see that one again. But I’m concerned about the Utah season win total over. Obviously, they have to win this game. I think I partially wore the hat today hoping that the hat will work for Utah to win the game. You know what? Utah is just very bad against the run this year. 61st in defensive grade at PFF overall, which pretty shocking that they are 10 spots below Texas Tech. I mean who would’ve guessed before the season that Texas Tech is going to be 10 spots higher in PFF defensive grade than Utah at this point? I mean there is no way I thought that that was going to be the case. And Utah pass defense is bottom 40 in the country. This has been a team, or sorry, bottom 40 against the run. This is a team that usually is so good against the run.

Their defensive line’s been good year in and year out. I didn’t see any reason to expect that to change this year. USC is not very good on defense. That’s going to beat them at some point, I think, unless they keep this plus 14 turnover margin. If they’re going to get plus two or three turnover margin every single game, that’s going to be tough to lose. I can’t bet Utah here. This line is telling me though that these two teams would be close to a pick ’em on a neutral field.

I think home field advantage here should probably be three and a half or four points for Utah because, probably four as a night game at Utah, Salt Lake City at elevation. Not something that USC would be used to. But this feels like USC should probably be favored by more than that on neutral field based on what we’ve seen this year. But I am worried that USC’s turnover margin will regress to the mean a bit. So I’m rooting for Utah here. I’m putting a little pizza money on the over right now. We’ll see how that works out. But I don’t have anything strong that I really love about this game.

Gary Segars:

I’m in the exact same position. Nothing that I really, really like about this game. So no official plays here, but we do have leans on it. So yeah, I mean, Kyle has got the pizza money on the over and I might end up tailing that one. I might end up tailing that. So we’ll see. We got a couple more games to hit before we jump into the Q and A. We did hit 200 likes. We certainly appreciate you guys for doing that. Those of you that have not liked, what you waiting for? Go ahead and hit that button, hit that thumbs up. It looks like this. Moving along, we’re going to stay in the PAC-12 and this one should be interesting. Washington State heads to Corvallis to take on Oregon State. The Beavers a four point favorite at home. The total sits at 53.

Of course, the latest numbers at BetUS. Reser Stadium, of course, going through some construction stuff so it’s not going to be a full, full house in there, but it is a night game. 9:00 PM Eastern time, of course, on the PAC-12 Network, might be hard to find on your TV dial. But you look at some of these numbers here. I was a little shocked when I started going back and researching and Washington State has won eight straight between these two teams. And, of course, I guess that makes sense because of the Mike Leach era and how bad Oregon State was before Jonathan Smith got this thing turned around. But they are six and two against the spread against Oregon State. Looking at more recent numbers here, Washington State nine and two against the spread against the PAC-12 in their last 11. Oregon State in their last 10 at home, nine and one against the spread.

They seem to play better at home. The road home splits for Oregon State have just been bananas. Washington State running back Nakia Watson is out for an extended time. Renard Bell, the wide receiver also out for a while. Kyle, we’ll start with you on this. Jaylen Jenkins, the freshman running back that came in, I think he’s five foot eight. He had 13 carries for 130 yards against USC last week. For Washington State, obviously, defense is the key. They’re number 46 in PPA per drive. What do you see in this matchup between the Cougars and the Beavers?

Kyle Hunter:

Yeah, Oregon State probably should have lost last week. That epic late comeback against a Stanford team that just found a way to lose a game there. Ben Gulbranson played pretty good against Stanford. He did most of his damage in the fourth quarter. I’m not sure who’s going to be the quarterback for this one. Not sure it matters a whole lot between him and Chance Nolan. These two teams have played a similar strength of schedule. Oregon State is 41st in yards per play margin, Washington State’s 56th. Cam Ward before the season, there was quite a bit of hype about Cam Ward. He’s shown flashes, but the passing attack for Washington State has underwhelmed me overall. Honestly, the Washington State defense is better than the offense, which is surprising. You would’ve thought this would be a high scoring team that’s just airing it out constantly.

They do throw it a lot. 60% of their plays are passes. And in this case, I think that actually works to Oregon State’s favor because Oregon State’s secondary is significantly better than their run defense. Now maybe Washington State starts trying to run it more based on the success they had last week. But it’ll be interesting here. Oregon State’s been a covering machine at home. Nine and one against the spread in their last 10 games at home. I’m very hesitant to go away from that. However, I think this will be a fairly close game. So I don’t really want to lay the points here either. I’m going to pass on this one.

Gary Segars:

I’m in that same boat. These are two teams that I’m really having trouble figuring out. Parker, Washington State is five and one against the number in their last six in Corvallis. But at the same time, Oregon State, Jonathan Smith has figured out how to get this team amped up at home. How are you feeling about this one? What do you see in this ballgame?

Parker Fleming:

It’s interesting because both of these teams have really done their damage in a negative game script. You think about the Oregon game where Washington State came back and had a really big push to cover there at the end. You think Oregon State with the comeback against Stanford, a little bit against USC in the second half. And so gain state I think matters a lot for both of these teams. So who gets up early could end up not mattering as much because with Cam Ward and Washington State I mean in the blink of an eye, could get a touchdown. Just how explosive they are. That being said, I do like Oregon State at home here. I do think that their run defense has been getting picked on a little bit. And Washington State, if you opponent adjust their offense, I don’t know that it’s as explosive as I want it to be in my mind.

I like Oregon State’s balance. I like that they’re going to control the game, 98th in rush rate over expected compared to second in rush rate over expected for Washington. And again, the early down, late down splits here really favor Oregon State. Oregon State’s not great on early downs on offense, but they’re considerably better on third and fourth downs. That matches exactly what Washington State does. Washington State actually lives on third down. They’re 36th in third and fourth down success. So if Oregon State can get them into a hole on early downs, I think that third down success may be not sustainable against an Oregon State team that’s a little better in third and fourth down situations than they are in early downs.

The flip side on offense, Oregon State is 66th in early downs EPA, even as they’re rushing a lot and Washington State’s defense is 79th. They’ve really benefited from a lot of third and fourth down success. I think that early downs EPA really that open football will really help Oregon State here be able to dictate the pace of play not only in terms of how fast we go, but in terms of game script. And for two teams that are very game script dependent, I think that’ll be really important. Oregon State is 62nd in quality possession ratio and echo ratio. 51.5% of all quality possessions in their games have belonged to them. Washington State is 54th with 53.1%. So neither team has been especially dominant. It’s been a lot of yo-yoing. So I’m going to take Oregon State to play a little slower at home, maybe be a little more physical and get the cover here. I have this by about four and a half, so I’m comfortable with this three or three and a half number that we have. Let’s make an official pick. Let’s take the Beavers.

Gary Segars:

Let’s roll with it. Let’s make it official, Oregon State to cover the four for Parker. We did have questions in the chat. Timmy the tulip asked, “Is Chance Nolan playing?”

Parker Fleming:

No, I think he’s out, right?

Gary Segars:

Well, so here’s what Jonathan Smith has said. He’s not practicing yet as of yesterday, but he said that he can play this week. So we’ll see what that means. I will tell you this, Gulbranson the better numbers thus far. Obviously, small sample set, but it may not matter. So I like the pick, Parker. Oregon State at home, there’s just something to Corvallis at night, so that’s not a bad pick. Official play, Parker, Oregon State to cover at four.

Last game on the docket before we get to Q and A, so make sure you got your questions in. San Jose State heads to Fresno and the Trojans a nine point favorite juiced at minus 105 here. The total sits at 47. Of course, latest numbers at BetUS. Bulldog Stadium in Fresno, California, this is a team that I don’t think the market has caught up to yet on both sides really. Fresno State, they are starting Logan Fife at quarterback here. 69% completion percentage, zero touchdowns, four interceptions thus far when he is playing. This Fresno defense has regressed big time in this game. Parker, San Jose State is a team that just appears to be rolling. They’re 4-0 against the spread in their last four on the road. Fresno is one in six against the spread at home in their last seven and they’re 0-4 against the number against winning teams. What are you seeing in this matchup?

Parker Fleming:

Is San Jose State the team this year that Fresno State was last year? Their defense has been great. They’ve got an offense that’s moving. I really like what I see on San Jose State. I think they’re absolutely underrated. Excuse me. Both you guys are on this. So I’ll be really quick here. San Jose State 27th in early down’s EPA compared on offense compared to Fresno State’s 99th in defense. They should be able to move the ball. They have had an issue with third and fourth downs. They’re 104th in third and fourth downs success, but they’re 22nd in avoiding third downs. So that’s probably just because the third downs that we see are third and long when things haven’t gone well. So I’m not worried about that. I think they’ll be able to move the ball really, really well. Nothing about this Fresno State defense makes me excited at all.

On the flip side, Fresno State can’t pass and San Jose State is absolutely brutal against the pass. 20th in EPA per pass defense compared to 93rd for Fresno State. So San Jose should absolutely feast here. A touchdown might depend on pace of play, but I like San Jose State. I would definitely lean to them in this spot, especially with the quarterback news.

Gary Segars:

Most certainly. San Jose State, Kyle, opened at five and a half. It has, I mean, just gone right through the key number of seven here. The total 48 and a half that has dropped down to 47. I look at some of these numbers and all of this makes absolute perfect sense, but it still feels like the number has not caught up to what the market should be on it. How are you feeling about this one?

Kyle Hunter:

Well, I mean I liked it better when it was six than I do when it’s nine, obviously. But I’m going to still roll with it here because any evaluations of Fresno State with Jake Haener mean absolutely nothing now. I mean that’s one of the largest downgrades from QB one to QB two that you could see. And Fife had a 52.1 PFF grade against UCONN, 46.8 against Boise State. Also, he has a 49 PFF grade in a clean pocket, which to me is a big red flag because even when you don’t have any pressure on you, you haven’t been any good struggling with accuracy in general. He’s also not taking any shots down field is [inaudible 01:11:32] 6.7. So I think San Jose State’s defensive line is the real deal. I think they’re going to be in the backfield. Fife has taken quite a few sacks here and I think if they get behind the chains, bad news for them. What are they going to do if they get behind the chains here?

The best defensive line in the Mountain West, in my opinion here, for San Jose State, 22nd in yards per play allowed in the country. I think they want to run the football, San Jose State. They have not been great at running the football, but Boise State who has not been very good running-

PART 3 OF 4 ENDS [01:12:04]

Kyle Hunter:

… Football, but Boise State who has not been very good running just piled up 6.08 yards per carry on this Fresno State defense. So Fresno State’s defense, like Gary said, has really regressed a lot. No doubt Fresno State would prefer to hide Logan Fife and run the football a lot here. But I don’t think that’s going to be very easy against San Jose State’s defensive front.

We’ve seen coaches finally, I’ll say, we’ve seen coaches come back a second time and a lot of times it doesn’t work out too well. And this is not me saying, “I think Tedford’s a bad coach.” But you look at some of the recent history of guys coming back to a place for a second time, it doesn’t go as well as it did the first time pretty often. Gary Anderson’s a pretty good example of that. I think Tedford’s a better coach than Gary Anderson, but I don’t love the spot that Fresno state’s in right now as far as a program. You just think this line has moved up a lot. I was telling Gary, “I really wish they were going to wait to announce that Fife was starting till later.” Because I was pretty sure Fife was going to be the starter but was hoping they’d wait till at least Wednesday afternoon for that. But I’m still going to take the road team here in this one. I don’t see many points coming from Fresno State, so I’m counting on San Jose State doing enough on offense.

Gary Segars:

I am certainly with you on that. You brought up the second time around for coaches coming back to a school. Remember Tedford’s offensive coordinator, when he was at Fresno the first time around, was Kalen DeBoer. When DeBoer left to be the offensive coordinator at Indiana, that thing cratered and then Tedford ended up leaving the job. DeBoer came back and took the job and got it built back up and now of course Tedford coming back in without DeBoer. It doesn’t look great, I will say that.

Now obviously losing Jake Haener is a big deal. But Kyle, I am a hundred percent with you. This defense for San Jose State is legit, that defensive line is legit. They’re number 25 in the country in Stuff Rate. If the only thing that Fresno can really do on offense is run the ball, that’s not good. Because you’re not going to be able to do it against these guys.

San Jose State number 21 in standard downs PPA defense, they are going to stop them early and often. And as Parker brought up, they’re not great on third downs. This is going to be a problem. I don’t see how this game stays within single digits here. So I certainly like San Jose State.

Another thing to keep in track of, the intangibles, all that kind of stuff, turnovers. No, it’s not something that you can necessarily predict, but San Jose State number two in giveaways per game, Fresno number 87 in giveaways per game. San Jose State is not going to beat themselves. It doesn’t appear. So I like it. I’m going to make it official myself at San Jose State to cover the nine. Both myself and Kyle, like that one.

All right, let’s get into this thing. We’re almost at 250 likes. Go ahead and hit that like button if you’ve not done so already. And let’s dive into the Q and A. We’re going to rapid fire this thing. It’s our favorite time of the week. EliteEmpire jumps in the first one, “Anyone think Michigan State has a decent chance to beat Wisconsin?” You know what, Parker covered that one on Tuesday’s Q and A. I think it was the first question on Q and A. So go back and watch the Tuesday show. He discusses Wisconsin and Michigan State on that one. ThrowADogABoneTV, okay, “So, hey guys, do you think the SWAC conference should suspend those players from Alabama State for the way they disrespected Jackson State head coach and Hall of Famer, Coach Prime?” So I’ve been keeping up with this. Kyle, Parker, have y’all kept up with this at all?

Kyle Hunter:

I have not.

Gary Segars:

Okay. Okay.

Parker Fleming:

I saw the post game comment and my only comment is WeAin’tFriends is amazing. Coach post game talk. Yeah.

Gary Segars:

Yes. Yes. “He ain’t SWAC” stuff and Prime coming back with the, “I ain’t SWAC? Like who SWAC? Who SWAC?” All that’s kind of a mess. It’s look… No, I don’t believe that they should be suspended for “disrespecting” an opposing coach or anything like that. That whole thing got blown way out of proportion. I will tell you what it did though, is it brought a lot of national attention to the SWAC, which helps. That’s exactly what Primetime Neon Deion was brought in to do. That’s what he wants to do is bring more eyeballs on it. And there’s a lot more people watching. The fact that we have got a question about it in a show that really only covers FBS football is proof positive that it works.

So yeah, don’t suspend them for it, but man, bring on more of it. I mean, you need something to get through the headlines, to cut through those Saturday headlines for all these other big name teams. Moving right along. BossHog, “Kyle, what do you guys think about Central Michigan versus Akron?” I think that line is at 13 and a half, if I’m not mistaken. I’ll tell you this, I ain’t touching Akron again, but Kyle, what do you think on it?

Kyle Hunter:

Would you be excited to lay points with Central Michigan? They’ve been really weak compared to what they were supposed to be. [inaudible 01:16:49] I would lean to the over in that game thinking that Central Michigan’s offense, which hasn’t looked too great against a lot of teams, probably looks a lot better against Akron. Akron probably is able to score some here as well. So that would be my lean.

Gary Segars:

Yeah, not a lot of movement on that by the way. It opened at 13, it’s 13 again. So it’s just not much movement as far as the over opened 58 and a half. It’s up to 59. Yeah, I think the over would be the way to go for me, because I don’t trust either one of them’s defense and I think that both of them can move the ball. And so YariB, “Texas State +550 after a big W against App State, is it worth a money line sprinkle or should I just play it safe with UConn +275, Parker?” So Texas State going up against Troy this week, would you take them as a possible money line winner or would you take UConn again? I don’t even know who Yukon’s playing.

Kyle Hunter:

Ball State.

Gary Segars:

Ball State, Yeah, yeah, yeah.

Kyle Hunter:

Oh gosh.

Gary Segars:

You got a feel?

Parker Fleming:

I will say about Texas State/App State just because that was so weird last week. I’m not going to “well actually” a 12 point win, but I’m going to “well actually” a 12 point win. They had a 42 yard touchdown, a 48 yard touchdown drive, a 33 yard touchdown drive and an interception return for a touchdown. And they still won by fewer than two touchdowns. So I think that there was a lot of, I mean, App state really, really dug a hole, had an absolutely terrible first half and credit to the Texas State defense and special teams for pulling those off. I do not believe those are indicators of year or week over week, future looking, forward looking, sustainable success. So be a little bit wary about Texas State and a bump there. I think that’s probably a little opportunistic. UConn looks like they’re normal bad. I mean they’re not like…

Gary Segars:

They’re not atrocious.

Kyle Hunter:

Yeah.

Parker Fleming:

Which is a step forward. So I mean if you’re going to pick one of those, I would rather bet on UConn than Texas State. Please God, don’t cut this clip and put it on Twitter.

Gary Segars:

I love it. I love it. TimmyTheTulip jumps in, “Kyle, Purdue versus Nebraska. You got to lean on this one?” I believe that the current line is what, 12 and a half or 13 if I’m not mistaken. I refreshed. I think it’s about 12 and a half. So you got to feel?

Kyle Hunter:

Yeah, I want to say first I can’t believe that, “Play it safe with Uconn.” I saw somebody in the chat say, “Play it safe with UConn.” That doesn’t feel like playing it safe, but I understand the difference.

Gary Segars:

The context, right? It’s all in the context.

Kyle Hunter:

Perspective, I guess. But I think I would still lean Purdue in this game. I don’t trust Nebraska. I think Nebraska even was fairly fortunate to win their game against Rutgers. To me, nothing about what Nebraska has been doing is very encouraging. So I think Aiden O’Connell could have quite a nice day there. So I’m going to lead Purdue.

Gary Segars:

That thing has jumped by the way, it’s at 14 now, but I still kind of agree with you. Nebraska looked awful against Rutgers last week and still won, which got Sean Gleason fired. But regardless, I think I would agree with you. Brady Dolly, I hope I said that right. “Parker, how would you adjust your analysis or prediction for the Mississippi State/Kentucky game with Will Levis in?” There is a chance they’re saying that he could play this weekend, so you got a thought?

Parker Fleming:

Yeah, so being a numbers guy, I try to do a process that is aggregate team performance and isn’t, I know some traditional power rating guys, like I’m sure Gary and Kyle, in addition to your numbers based stuff, will have a point value attached to a quarterback. Sometimes the Vegas guys will do out of 10 or out of 15 or whatever. That’s not really how I build my numbers. It’s based on aggregate performance and there’s a little bit of a waiting scheme.

So basically my numbers created a baseline expectation that has Mississippi State by about eight, eight and a half. And that is based on the entire season’s worth of data recently weighted a little bit more. Levis is enough to scare me off of a Mississippi State eight bet. I think that they’re pretty physical up front, but on defense, Kentucky has been a lot more physical. So the reason I’m not betting them is not because of uncertainty of Levis per se, but it’s because I think that Mississippi State’s offense won’t be able to be as dominantly physical with Kentucky’s defense as they have against other SEC defenses. And then you throw the uncertainty about Levis in there.

So I create a baseline based on aggregate performance and then I’ll kind of manually adjust based on some of those contextual spots in terms of what I take and what my plays are. Levis puts me, again, not an exact point value, but Levis makes me a little less inclined to bet Mississippi State as a favorite there. If that is a sufficient answer.

Gary Segars:

That does make sense. That number, by the way, is all the way down to four now since the Levis news came out this morning.

Parker Fleming:

Oh my gosh. Yeah, just yesterday or something I pulled that. Yeah. So crazy.

Gary Segars:

If that gets down to three, I might hop on Mississippi State. As it sits, going to wait around and just see, because remember we saw state go on the road to LSU and kind of just all over themselves. Right? It didn’t work out well. Josh Gillum jumps in, and Kyle, this is the perfect one for you, I think, “Isn’t taking a flat number, say minus three, the wrong thing to do on a bet?” He says, “You have a 33% chance to win, 33% chance to tie, 33% chance to lose. If you take a half number minus two and a half, doesn’t your win percentage increase to 50% instead of 33%?”

Kyle Hunter:

Well, I mean this is all relative and the odds makers know what half a point is worth and they’re going to make you pay for that half a point. So I just think you shop around and get the best price you can. If you can get a two and a half when you could have had a three somewhere else, then certainly you take the minus two and a half. But I’m not for this buying half a point, trying to feel better about yourself, because long term you just get the best number you can get. You’re going to do better than not.

But I understand the thought process of being on the flat number and it is kind of frustrating to tie if you have a minus three and you could have had two and a half, but you know the odds makers know this information too. It’s not something that somebody doesn’t already know. So just shop around, get the best number you can. Don’t pay a lot of juice, it’s not worth it in long run.

Gary Segars:

I agree with you a hundred percent. Do not worry about trying to buy points because it ain’t worth that extra nickel or whatever it is that the book will end up charging. Just go ahead and bet the number and more times than not if your ratings and whatnot, if your analysis on the game is correct and you win, it’s going to be by more than that anyway. Now we’ve had some half point losses here on the show. We’ve had some one point losses on the show, but that’s okay because in the long run it will end up paying off much more so than trying to pay more for just extra half points or whatever it is. So we do have one more, Well we got a few more questions here. Jermaine Lewis jumps in, “Over under Vanderbilt versus Georgia?” Kyle, you’re more of our totals guy. How would you look at Vandy and Georgia on this one?

Kyle Hunter:

My handicap for this is kind of like what Parker said a couple weeks ago about the Georgia games is you kind of just wonder when they shut it down. I don’t like to bet on that. I think Georgia’s very capable of scoring a lot of points in this game. Vandy’s defense, especially lately, has been very weak. So your question is, “Do you think Georgia’s going to run the ball up the middle and waste the clock once they get a big lead?” I don’t know. I think the number’s just about right. So I’m going to pass on that one.

Gary Segars:

Yeah, trying to play psychologists is just…

Kyle Hunter:

Yeah, it’s not my strength.

Gary Segars:

It’s 58 and a half and the spread is 38. So you’re looking at a 48 to 10 game. Like, okay, I mean, what if it ends up 49 to 10 or 49 to three? You’re trying to figure out when they want to hop in. Parker, Steven jumps in, “Your opinion on Western Kentucky versus Middle Tennessee?” I’m looking for a number. Oh man, that thing’s all the way up to eight now. Western Kentucky is favored by eight. You got a feel?

Parker Fleming:

This game has great vibes in terms of two teams that I think are fun. Middle Tennessee, maybe not great. I have this as Western Kentucky by six. Generally, my philosophy is that if a team is in the lower left quadrant of your offense versus defense scatter plot in your head, I’m generally not going to bet on them regardless of whether my number thinks they’ll be within a spot there. So I have them at 94th in EPA per play, 94th on offense, 83rd on defense. Western Kentucky, at least on offense, has shown that they can be explosive in the pass game and Middle Tennessee’s pass defense 85th in EPA per pass compared to 25th for Western Kentucky. So I guess I would lean towards, excuse me, Western Kentucky. Eight is a little much for me. Eight’s a little much.

Gary Segars:

I can understand that. It went through seven and I just… No, no. No, Sir. Scott Young wants to know about Eastern Michigan and Northern Illinois. I will tell you this, you know what, Parker, we know a little thing or two about northern Illinois. Without Rocky playing quarterback, I don’t know that I would put anything on Northern Illinois right now. That team does not look good without him at quarterback. Do you feel anything as far as the numbers go on this one?

Parker Fleming:

I’m not at liberty to break news, but if he is not playing, I would not bet on Northern Illinois. I believe they haven’t won a game without him, in a while, and so that matters a whole lot. And their defense is very not good. Eastern Michigan’s offense is at least competent, 73rd overall. So injury news pending there. But Northern Illinois is very much a quarterback away from disaster.

Gary Segars:

Yes, you have got that right. OurBone says, “Kyle, did the Washington game total get bet up too much?” It opened at 71.5, it’s up to 73 now. Of course, Washington and Arizona, neither one of those defenses exactly strong as I would say. Kyle, what do you think about this one?

Kyle Hunter:

I don’t want to take the under with these two teams. They’re so efficient on offense. The defenses give up so many big plays. This is above my number now, but I don’t want to take the under. So it’s just one of those games where… Even the Northern Illinois and Eastern Michigan game, I had a number lower than that and I start looking at the data and I’m like, “I don’t want to take the under. Why would I take the under between these two?” Same way I feel about this one, even though my number is a little bit lower than this, I believe it’s 71. I don’t want anything to do with an under between those two. That scares me.

Gary Segars:

That does make sense. Yeah, this feels like it’s a game that could play into the hundreds, but we’ll see. I mean obviously we don’t get a ton of those kind of games. We did have a few more. So SlowJamsArsheno wanted to know, “Did you guys cover tonight’s Louisiana at Marshall game?” We did yesterday during the Q and A segment. Heath said, let’s see, Q and A about Michigan State against Wisconsin. Again, yesterday’s Q and A, make sure and go back and watch the Tuesday show. Here, last one that we’ll hit for the week. Anup wanted all three of us to answer this. So Parker, I’m going to let you go first on it. “I want your early predictions for the four teams go into the playoff.”

Parker Fleming:

I think that Georgia will be there. I think Alabama will be there. I’ve shifted towards believing that… No, actually I think we’re getting one SEC team. So I’m going to go, I’m going to cop out and say the winner of the cage match between Alabama, Tennessee, and Georgia goes, Clemson goes, Ohio State goes, USC goes.

Gary Segars:

I like it. I like it. Okay. I am going to take Georgia from the SEC, I’m going to take Ohio State. I’m going to take Clemson and I’m going to take USC. That’s my plan. Kyle, what have you got?

Kyle Hunter:

Gary, not taking Alabama. Wow.

Gary Segars:

I don’t like how this team looks.

Parker Fleming:

You can’t reverse jinx. You can’t. That doesn’t work.

Kyle Hunter:

I was going to say, “Is this an attempt to reverse jinx?”

Gary Segars:

Don’t do this to me, Parker, when you tell me that Oklahoma State is your lead for this week, now come on. Kyle, go ahead.

Kyle Hunter:

Oh, I’m going to take Georgia, Bama, Ohio State, and Clemson. I know that’s kind of a cop out answer, but I think those are the four best teams. I’m going to take those teams.

Gary Segars:

I can’t believe nobody said Texas, now that Quinn Ewers is back. I mean, what are we doing? They’re not going to win out. I mean, what are we talking about?

Parker Fleming:

But they have two losses.

Gary Segars:

Yeah, it doesn’t matter though because the committee said that any game that has an injury in it, right? And so Quinn Ewers missed the second half of the Bama game and the lost to Texas Tech. Maybe we have chaos elsewhere. Maybe we get Texas in there. Maybe not. Probably not. Probably not. I’m surprised we didn’t pick TCU or Oklahoma State or anything like that. But that conference just looks brutal. Just brutal.

All right, let me go ahead and mention this. Parker is going to be on 3Dog Thursday on the BetUS TV main channel. That’s right. He survived last week. He has done a magnificent job at picking underdogs on that. And picked his first ever NFL game last week and it hit home with the Colts covering. That’s what I’m talking about. You might as well retire on that one, my friend. That’s what I’m talking-

Parker Fleming:

I’m going three college teams this week. Yeah, I’m dropping the mic on the NFL.

Gary Segars:

I love it. I love it. All right, let me remind everybody, go ahead and like the video, as we bring this to a close. Of course, the two days this week that we have done this, it’s been a lot of fun. But we need those likes, we need the subscriptions, et cetera. We want to hit 10K this week. We want to hit as many likes on this video as possible. So we certainly appreciate you guys for being here.

George, Slow Jams, Rafael, Julius, Matthew, Lee, Big Luchi, et cetera. You guys are awesome. You join us every single week and we certainly appreciate you for being here. Along with that, of course, the podcast, if you were not able to catch the show live, you can always do that. Let’s go ahead and do the recap, right quick. Let’s go ahead and hit on that one. Da da da da and Parker, I’m going to let you start us off on this.

Parker Fleming:

Four bets today. Kind of the inverse. You guys had the more plays yesterday and I’ve got more of them today. James Madison, minus 12 and a half. Utah State minus 11, Clemson minus four, Oregon State minus four. We are going all chalk with four favorites today.

Gary Segars:

I can understand it. I can. I’m going to go chalk as well. Of course. I’ve got one in common with Parker and I’ve got one in common with Kyle as well. I’m going to roll with Clemson to cover the four at Florida State, and I’m going to roll with San Jose State to cover the nine at Fresno. Kyle, what have you got?

Kyle Hunter:

I got Southern Miss minus four, and I have San Jose State minus nine. Guys, I see too many minuses up there. I’m getting worried, but I do like our plays this week, so let’s see how we go.

Gary Segars:

I tend to be the same way. I tend to be the same way. All right. Again, you guys are phenomenal. Thank you for being here. Everybody that’s been in the chat, we look forward to doing this again next week. So let’s go on and close it out for BetUS  the favorite american’s sportsbook, where the game begins. God bless college football, and we’ll see you all again next week.

PART 4 OF 4 ENDS [01:32:32]

 

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