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Parker Fleming:

Hello. Hello. Good afternoon and welcome to another episode of the BetUS NCAAF Picks and Prediction Show, talking some college football today. I am Parker Fleming filling in for our beloved host Gary, who’s out in Vegas talking to the big betting minds, doing some networking, learning a bunch out there. We miss him this week.

But we have got a great show this week. We’re going to talk about some regular season win totals, some futures we like. We’ll get to a lot of conferences this week. Got a lot of plays and really excited to get started. Before we dive in, want to introduce who’s with me this week. Of course, as always with me, my friend, one of the best handicappers I know and an all-around nice guy, Kyle Hunter, he’s at Kyle Hunter Picks on Twitter. Kyle, how are you today?

Kyle Hunter:

I’m doing well. Parker, it’s interesting to see you in the middle there, so this is going to be a fun show. Looking forward to it. Corbie is always a great guest as well. Looking forward to chatting with both of you guys.

Parker Fleming:

Yeah. Absolutely love having Corbie here on the other side of the screen. Of course, Corbie Craig, if you’re a long-time listener, you’ve seen he’s filled in for me before, he’s on the MLB show for BetUS. He’s on Twitter at just keep … Oh, I totally botched it … @KeepBettingCo on Twitter, always posting picks. Great gambling Twitter follow there as well. Corbie, thanks for being here today man. We’re excited to get into stuff. How are you?

Corbie Craig:

Yeah. I think I filled in for you. It might’ve been two years ago at this point. Went three and two, so we have a positive record for the college football show. Always going to be with Kyle. We did the college basketball show together. Just don’t know how you have so many hats. I see the right-side just blows my mind. I need to get you one for Christmas. I have a hat back here I can give you. You got to step up your arsenal.

Parker Fleming:

Yeah. That’s great. That’s great. Well, before we get started into some of these picks and some of these plays, do want to mention the chat is one of the best parts of the show. It’s always popping. I’m hosting, I have no idea if I’m going to be able to be in the chat. But I know Kyle and Corbie will be in there. If you want to interact, do you want to ask questions for the Q&A at the end of the show, make sure that you’re subscribed. That’s the only way you can get in the chat.

Ask them there and then our excellent producers who are sitting back here will compile those for us. We’ll get to those questions and answers if you’ve got anything else. I would say generally let’s try to keep them about regular season wins. But if you’ve got something interesting, that’s great. Please don’t ask me how many shares of Shedeur Sanders I have at Heisman plus 12,000.

But other than that, I think we’ll field a lot of these fun and interesting questions. All right, without further ado, let’s get into some plays. We’re going to start out. We are going to go to the MAC. We’re going to talk about the Western Michigan Broncos. The over is three and a half, that’s minus 105. It’s a 55.6% implied probability. Under three and a half is minus 125. They went five and seven last year.

They fired Tim Lester, a guy who’s near and dear to my heart, has a binder, uses some math, but just looked like the program wasn’t where they wanted it to be. Last season, they were 19th … or excuse me, they averaged 19.0 points per game. That’s a 119th. They allowed 24.1, which is 50th.

We’ll go quickly here. The play that we have is going to be one from Gary. It’s going to be under three and a half here is he’s going to take for Western Michigan, not believing in the year zero and moving on from Lester and potentially thinking that things can get worse here in Western Michigan for the Broncos.

Kyle, what is your thought on Western Michigan? New coach coming in, had a really disappointing season after losing Kaleb Eleby last year. What do you make of this under three and a half bet?

Kyle Hunter:

Yeah. It’s hard to take under three and a half because you luck into a win or two and you could be in trouble. Having said that, Western Michigan’s really weak. I think their talent is just so much weaker than the rest of the MAC. Definitely lean to the under here in this one. Only thing I don’t love here is under three and a half minus 125.

I’m going to wait this to announce and see if we get a better number or I don’t think it’ll go for four. Maybe we’ll get a little better juice on this one. But I think it’s a good play by Gary. That would definitely be my lean as well.

Parker Fleming:

Yeah. I like it a lot. Again, a team that was really fun to root for that seems like they’re struggling to get Syracuse and Iowa in the non-con, which doesn’t help things either and Mississippi State. A little bit of tough play there. That’s Gary giving us tough draw there for Western Michigan. That’s Gary giving us Western Michigan under three and a half at minus 125.

All right. I think we’re going to move out of the MAC. We’re going to keep this thing snappy and head over to the Conference USA, got a fun team, a team that made a lot of us a lot of money last year. Certainly, the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers. That line is 8.5 plus 105 to the over minus 135 to the under. That’s going to be a 48.8% win probability to the over … or excuse me, implied probability to the over.

The Hilltoppers went nine and five in 2022. That was their second straight nine-win season. They were 20th in EPA per play, 24th on offense, 40th on defense, and they are 105th in returning production but 56th on offense, 122nd in returning production on defense. Let’s go over first. Kyle, this is a play that you have. You like the Hilltoppers here. Talk to me about what you’re going to do with this eight and a half number.

Kyle Hunter:

Yeah. First, Western Kentucky was ninth in yards per play margin in the country last year. Really good season. To say that Conference USA is watered down is a pretty big understatement at this point. Clear class of the conference, I think their strength of schedule is so much weaker than it has been in the past.

Austin Reed’s been fantastic in the offense, 31 big time throws according to PFF last year, just 3.8% turnover worthy play rate. They picked up a couple of nice big-time transfers as well. The wide receivers are definitely the best in the conference. Fourteen sacks only allowed last year. Strong offensive line. I know their defense is bad. I don’t think they’re going to really need a good defense to outscore these teams in this conference.

They could be a double-digit favorite in nine games this year. I’m getting over eight and a half. Only one schedule game that feels out of reach and that’s Ohio State. I think they’ll get the double-digit wins. I think 10 is more likely than 8. I have to take over eight and a half.

Parker Fleming:

Yeah. It makes a lot of sense. A really, really good offense. As you mentioned, Austin Reed comes back, which is just a huge boon. You get that talent advantage there. You get some continuity with an offense that loves to throw it a lot. I like that play. I like it a whole lot. Kyle, that is going to be an official play. We’ll do this. I’m getting my hosting chops here. We’ll lock that official play in Western Kentucky over five and a half plus 105 for Kyle.

All right. Let’s keep moving through the Conference USA. We’ve got the Rice Owls is where we’re going to go next. That line is four and a half minus 115 on either side of that. Rice was five and eight last year, four and eight the year before. But they went to their first bowl in eight seasons and a whole big deal for them.

They were 110th in EPA per play, 73rd on offense, 99th on defense and their 21st in returning production. Corbie, you’ve got to play about the Rice Owls. Talk to me about the boys down in Houston. What are they going to do this year?

Corbie Craig:

Yeah. To make things short, I’m going to have to disrespect Kyle’s hat a little bit. Take the under four and a half here. I think this is the JT Daniels revenge tour. He keeps going to schools and he wants the hardest strength of schedule he can get. By all means he’s got it. I give them one sure win, four tossups, and that’s just a line that I make less than a touchdown with key games being at South Florida and versus ECU.

Don’t really know if they can beat ECU but I do give them as South Florida. But being on the road as one of your key games, never a really good spot. I give them three wins versus Texas Southern, Yukon and Charlotte. Those are three games that I think are pretty respectable wins. If you can’t beat them then I’m really not worried about this four and a half. But give them those. Don’t give them any of the tossups.

JT Daniels is a cool story, is cool name, but I think that we haven’t seen enough from him. I mean this schedule is tough. By all means, I just don’t think that they have enough firepower. Texas Houston, they’re going to see a pretty tough start of the season and wouldn’t surprise me if we see a little more Owl heading into the games that they can actually win here.

Parker Fleming:

Yeah. Definitely tough with that cumulative effect. JT Daniels at what point are reps going to matter here in the development and moving around and certainly has the advantage but certainly understandable with that schedule. Rice was 23rd in points per game last year … 23 points per game last year, 91st overall, 36.2 points allowed, 121st on defense there. A lot of issues on that. The schedule does start off pretty hard.

Going to go ahead and lock that in. Corbie Craig’s first official play of the 2023 season on the BetUS NCAA predictions show. He’s going to take Rice four and a half. The under is at minus 115. Let’s keep it popping. We’ll remind you that we are taking comments and questions in the chat. Get them in there. We’ll get to them at the end of the show.

We are going to move over to another Gary play here, Conference USA again, New Mexico state the fight and Jerry Kill’s over five and a half is minus 160 under five and a half is plus 130. They were seven and six last year. Won the Quick Lane Bowl, average 25.5 points per game that’s 82nd in the nation. They allowed 23.9 points per game. That’s 47th in the nation.

Gary is going to take this play at over five and a half minus 160. That’s a 61.5% implied probability on that line. He believes that the momentum in Albuquerque is going the right direction. Corbie, I’ll put you on the spot here. New Mexico State. You got a thought on the Aggies this fall? Is 5.5 a play you like?

Corbie Craig:

Of course. Yeah. I don’t know. I think that they can get six wins, but five and a half, just the juice struggle to. Gary knows his stuff about football. I would love to see his justification and hear his argument. I’m sure it’s a great one. This is not something I’m running the fence to bet against for sure. But I think that the biggest game in this entire schedule has to be week nine. New Mexico State at Louisiana Tech.

I think Louisiana Tech has a lot of firepower on offense and they could be a lot better. It’s not something we’re talking about on the show. But I think Louisiana Tech has the potential to be decent scoring. I don’t know if their defense would be good. But I don’t know if New Mexico State can win that game. If they do, then I think six wins happens. This is all riding on the idea that the key game law tech on the road. It’s just a tough spot. It’s something I laid off. But I’m sure Gary has a very good reason for it.

Parker Fleming:

Yeah. Again, positive momentum and a coach that’s been around, it’s succeeded at multiple levels of football, definitely understand it. We’ll lock that one in for Gary, New Mexico State over five and a half minus 160. That’ll all be on the recap screen too so you can see those at the end of the show.

All right. Let’s bounce out of the Conference USA. Let’s go over into the Mountain West. Got a couple of plays here, some mix of optimism and pessimism. We’ll see where we land after all of it. But we’re going to start with Colorado State over five … excuse me, the line is five. The over is minus 110. The under is minus 120. Last year Colorado State was … I have this totally record. I have the record that is 100% not true. That’s from two years ago.

Last year Colorado State was, I believe, three and nine is the record. I don’t know where the seventh, sixth was. I think that was before. But they were 125th and EPA per play, 128th on offense, 68th on defense. First year of Norvell coming over from Nevada, didn’t really have the personnel he wanted. They averaged only 20.1 points per game, which in an air rate Norvell offense is not going to work. That was 107th in the nation last year, 21.7 points allowed though, which was 22nd a legitimately good defense. They’ll return 56% of production overall. That’s 97th.

I have a play here. I’m going to ask Kyle your opinion about Colorado State here in a second, but I’m going to give my justification for Colorado State over five. I like this a lot more when it was 4.5, a little earlier in the season. We obviously know there’s a lot more strategy the earlier we go. I still like it at five here. That defense is returning. Not a whole lot there.

They’re 123rd in defensive returning production. But their 46th in offensive returning production. Clay Millen last year at quarterback was excellent. Almost a 72% completion percentage on a 7.7 average step of target, lost a lot to drops and even if his on target rate wasn’t as great was a little bit lower, they still move the ball quite well and should be even better with another year in the system under Norvell.

If you look at targets coming back, Tory Horton legitimately an underrated G5 wide receiver I think will be at the top of the G5 in terms of targets and in terms of yards. Love the schedule, how it breaks. Middle Tennessee, Utah Tech in the non-con also a winnable Washington State game at home. They’ll travel just up the road to Colorado, which is basically a home game. I guess that’s just down the road from Fort Collins to Boulder there.

Then in terms of the home slate, you get Boise State, you get Air Force both at home. You need one of those. That’s fine. You’ve got those at home. Then you’re traveling to Hawaii, Wyoming, UNLV, Utah State could very easily go three and one on the road there, which would go a long way towards hitting that five number.

I’m in on Colorado State with an over. Again, liked it more at a four and a half but I do like this five. Kyle, what do you think about the Rams in 2023?

Kyle Hunter:

Yeah. Let’s start with the negative first. The offensive line is the big problem here. I mean a negative 35 sack margin last year that really held them back in a big way. I think Morrow is a pretty good young running back. I think he’ll do well. Tory Horton is a freak of nature. I mean that guy is tremendous. Everybody knew the ball was going down last year and it was still working far too much.

To me, I think Horton’s a future NFL player. This is a team too. The biggest plus I see about them, Parker, is they could not possibly be any worse in the red zone than they were last year. I mean they were 52% on scoring any points once they got in the red zone, 21% touchdowns on trips inside the 20-yard line, very hard to do. Nobody else in the country was lower than 67% possession scoring inside the 20 and they were 52%.

That just tells you how badly it went when they got in the red zone. Solid secondary here in a conference where a lot of people throw the ball quite a bit. I like this one too, Parker.

Parker Fleming:

Yeah. Certainly, remember in college football it can always get worse. But 116th in echo rate for Colorado State, 131st in points per quality possession there, just abysmal. Think it’s going to get better under Norvell. Like the Millen to Horton connection there. I’m going to lock in Colorado State over 5 minus 110 is my play.

Sticking in the mountain west, Corbie’s got a play here. San Diego’s state, their current line is 7, it’s plus 100, even money over minus 130. Under last year they worked three and nine. That was their fifth straight losing season. Total of 14 wins in that span. That’s the Colorado state. This is wrong. There, I’ll be all right. I apologize. Shout out to Gary for all of the prep he does every week. It’s hard to keep it organized.

San Diego State 58 in EPA per play. They were 85th in offense, 19th on defense last year, 13.5 points per game on offense, 35.6 points allowed, which was 52nd overall. They’re 62nd in returning production. Corbie, talk to me about San Diego State. What’s your play here?

Corbie Craig:

Yeah. I’m not too big of a fan of the San Diego State team this year. I don’t think that’s too hot of a take. You see a Miami get Ohio game off the docket, what, three and a half, four point spread Ohio team that I just don’t think is comparable to most of the teams in San Diego State will have to play. I give them three surefire wins and five tossups.

Meaning, if you want to get over this number of seven, of flat seven, I think they basically have to win every one of their toss-ups, which if we see the most optimal San Diego State team is possible. But I think more often than not this is a win or a push. Key games, I put Boise State and the Air Force. I think the Air Force won, they could probably win and I don’t think that they can compete with Boise at this point.

I give them six wins, under seven. By all means, I think BetUS actually has the best number on this. You can get six and a half plus 110 across the entire market. BetUS is 7 minus 120. Then the other derivatives of 7 were minus 35, minus 45. Getting the best number of BetUS under 7 minus 120. I think they’d beat Idaho State, I would hope. Hawaii who Gary also took an under. Nevada, Colorado State will be an interesting one. I gave them the win at Colorado State.

I think Colorado State as you talked about, Parker, is a team that you probably shouldn’t sleep past. Give them Utah State and give them San Jose State that is giving them six wins and I can’t find two more. By all means, give me the end of there.

Parker Fleming:

Yeah. I like that logic. Certainly, you start assigning the wins, you start looking at the probabilities. Man, it’s rough for all of those to land the right direction for San Diego State. We’ll go ahead and lock that in for Corbie.

Kyle Hunter:

Parker, can I add something real quick on this one?

Parker Fleming:

Oh, please. Yeah. Absolutely.

Kyle Hunter:

Sorry. I want to add in on this too. Corbie’s makes a good point about getting that seven instead of the six and a half. Some people say, “Well, I want the plus money, I want the plus 115, the plus 110.” With win totals, you want to get the seven instead of the six and a half. There’s only so many games you play in college football. I think every half win is probably worth 65 or 70 cents or something like that.

You don’t want to take the plus 110. You want to get the under seven and something like this. I also think with Ryan Lindley as the offensive coordinator, they’ve talked about airing it out a little bit. I know Mayden is better than the other quarterbacks they’ve had lately. But I’m not really sure he’s the amazing drop back passer that some people think he could be. I like the under here too.

Parker Fleming:

Yeah. Definitely. Always with an increase in volume you’re going to see some decreased deficiency and some stumbling there. Definitely makes a lot of sense. All right. We’ll lock in that for Corbie, San Diego State under 7 minus 130 currently at BetUS. Still in the Mountain West, one more play here. We’ve got a Gary play. Hawaii is looking at a line of three and a half, that’s minus 135 to the over, plus 105 to the under.

They were 3 in 10 last year, 19.8 points per game is 115th, 34.7 allowed which is 123rd. Gary is not believing in the Warriors this year. He’s going to take the under plus 105 to have Hawaii finish just below that threshold. Three wins or fewer. Hawaii, not a great team by any stretch of imagination. Kyle, I wish Gary was here to defend himself. But I’m going to ask you about this.

They have 13 regular season games. This makes me so nervous to bend an over when they have that extra game. Is that’s something that you would factor in because I think we all agree on the quality of Hawaii here, if not the schedule breakdown?

Kyle Hunter:

Yeah. I think I would lean to the over here. I would lean against Gary if I had to bet this one just because three and a half is such a small number and they’re playing 13 games. Hawaii also was sneaky competitive at the end of last year. They were covering spreads pretty well. Not a team I love by any means and I would like to hear Gary’s thoughts on this. I’m not going to bet anything on Hawaii either way.

But it’s hard to take under at such a low number when Hawaii has that many games. I think there’s going to be several games that they at least have a shot in. Can they get to four? Possibly.

Parker Fleming:

Yeah. It’s just hard with that extra game but they are going to be pretty rough there. It is a tough situation out there. We’ll lock that out plus 105 for Gary. All right. Moving around to the other conferences and keeping this thing going. We are going to talk about an American athletic conference, a team that’s just rumored maybe to be in discussions about joining the other ACC, the Atlantic Coast Conference.

But currently, this season playing in the ACC, Preston Stone returns for quarterback. Rhett Lashlee in his second year. SMU, that line is 8 minus 165 on the over, plus 135 on the under. Last year SMU was 71st in EPA per play. That’s 26th on offense, 125th on defense, 36.6 points per game is 10th in the nation, 35.3 allowed was 120th. They are 117th in returning production. Mostly driven by 56% on offense, which is 101st in the nation. They do return 66% of the defense. That’s 53rd.

Kyle, I believe you and I are both going to have a play. I’ll defer to you and let you start. What’s your play on SMU this season?

Kyle Hunter:

I mean a lot of the best teams that they were up against last year left for the big 12. You’ve got teams that are certainly a weaker schedule. They avoid Tulane, UTSA, who I think are really good teams and certainly want to avoid them if you can. Rhett Lashlee year two certainly a positive thing. SMU was really explosive last year. I think they will be again, 78 plays of 20 yards or more last season.

Preston Stone was a really highly touted guy. I think he’ll do well in this offense. How about the boost of talent at running back? Jaylan Knighton from Miami, LJ Johnson from Texas A&M, nobody else in this conference has even close to that kind of talent running back. SMU doesn’t have to just sling it around and move the ball this year, I don’t think.

Certainly, Rice is a key loss but I think SMU’s wide receivers are still top 20 or 25 in the country. Defensively, McGill from Stanford helps quite a bit at free safety. A couple of those Liberty guys come over to play for their coordinator that they played with at Liberty a couple years ago. Big talent advantage in several of their games. The schedule down the stretch too. Last five, Tulsa at Rice, North Texas, at Memphis, Navy.

I think the floor is very high for SMU. It’s hard to imagine them not getting to eight. The only thing I can’t love about this is the juice. But 8 minus 165, I think SMU has a very real shot at double-digit wins. I think eight is about the floor here.

Parker Fleming:

I totally agree with that. We’ll just point out also got TC transfer, Jordan Hudson who is according to some services, up to a five-star, really talented weapon there to plug into that Lashlee offense. Stones should have a nice arriving on the scene party this fall. Do love the schedule even with a pretty rough non-con with Oklahoma and TCU both on the road. But if they go two and two in the non-con, you’re sitting very pretty with that schedule.

Kyle, I’m going to agree with you. I don’t even think I have much more to add because you hit the transfers and the continuity angle plus the schedule here. I’m going to agree with you. I think let’s lock that in for both of us. SMU over 8 minus 165 board this fall. Also, they missed Tulane, very interesting with that Memphis game. You’ll know what you need out of them at that point and can potentially be smart about the money line there as well. Good situation for SMU.

Let’s keep moving through the American Athletic Conference. We’ve got one more. This is another Gary play. We’re going to talk about Navy. The line is six and a half plus 115 to the over, minus 145 to the under. They were four and eight in 2022, 21.9 points per game, which is 105th in the nation, allowed 24.3 points per game, which is 52nd in the nation. But do remember to adjust that for pace, a very slow team and so that aggregate total per game does not reflect the per drive numbers per se.

It’s rough particularly for those of you who can remember or who might not remember. They did change substantially some blocking rules. Navy was a little bit more of a progressive offense among the service academies, but no longer can do the cut blocks and that really changes what they’re able to do. Navy moved on from Ken Niumatalolo and is going to try some new things this fall. Might be an adjustment period.

That’s what Gary believes. He’s going to take under six and a half minus 145 for Navy. Corbie, Any thoughts on the service academy here on the six and a half number?

Corbie Craig:

Yeah. I also bet this six and a half under minus 145 with Gary. I believe it’s on the sheet. But the biggest thing for me when looking into season long totals is like what is an absolute floor and what is an absolute ceiling and how much differential can you make. As you’re talking through the SMU game, I literally went on my secondary screen, you probably see me staring up there and bet SMU over 8 minus 165 with you guys.

It’s just I don’t think that there’s many situations where they don’t win eight games. I have them as double-digit favorites in eight games, by all means. To fill into the Navy game and the reason I’m bringing this up is the exact same thing here, I don’t see a way that they win seven games. I think six makes so much sense. I think that they could win six very frequently but that seventh game is just a tough relative to strength of schedule.

I know that Mark is probably pushing back on this idea that we’ve all joked about the whole Trent Dilfer UAB thing and they’re giving them that a sure win. Dilfer, I don’t think will be good. I am a UAB kid at heart. I don’t think he’ll be good. But I’m not giving Navy even a surefire win there, more less these good teams. I think that six wins max, I think five probably makes a lot of sense. Took an under six and a half minus 145 here.

Parker Fleming:

Yeah. Makes a whole lot of sense. Kyle, can I ask you really quickly and put you on the spot? Navy pacing issues going to be weird, offense is changing, rules are changing with the pass and what opponents can do with running the clock. Is that something that you’re going to keep an eye on for Navy totals this season, bad team and maybe even a quicker or a slower pace from them?

Kyle Hunter:

Yeah. I think Navy’s defense is pretty good. That won’t be the problem side of the ball this year. I will look for unders with Navy. The question is how much more will they throw than what they have in the past. I’m not sure. It’s surprising that Jasper is still there as a quarterback’s coach after Niumatalolo was gone. It surprises me.

I think Navy has so many question marks that it’s going to be super hard for them to get to seven in a season like this. I really like both Corbie and Gary’s play in this one.

Parker Fleming:

Yep. Corbie, I do see that in the sheet. You are absolved of all blame. That was me. We’re going to lock that in for Corbie and for Gary at Navy under 6.5 minus 145. All right. We are going to go back a little bit west, but not out to the independents in the west. We’re going to go to the big 12 and start in the west with BYU is going to be a next team that we’re going to talk about.

They were eight and five in 2022. They won the New Mexican Bowl. They’ve had 2, 10-win seasons before last year. They were 49th in EPA per play. That’s 16th on offense behind Jaren Hall, 116th on defense, 26.9 points per game. That’s 47th and 29.8 allowed was 86th. BYU, 70th in returning production. Have an interesting non-con slate with a couple of easy games and then at Arkansas, but facing a new big 12 slate nine conference games for the first time. Five of those on the road.

The line is five and a half minus 105 over and minus 125 under. Corbie, you’ve got to play on the Cougs this year.

Corbie Craig:

Yeah. We all talk about season over season momentum and it’s obviously, did New Mexico State. We see these teams that are just building and progressing year over year. But another thing that I like to look at is game over game momentum just implied momentum. BYU plays Sam Houston to start the year, Southern Utah to start the year. If they don’t win those then we’re in really big trouble.

But then after that, I mean this schedule gets really tough really fast. It’s hard to find a spot where they can build momentum just mentally. I mean maybe a Kansas win. I have Kansas as a five-point favorite in that game at Kansas. Maybe a Cincinnati win. But even if they win the Cincinnati game they have a bye week. It’s like every chance that they have to set momentum forward, it just gets shot down in an instant.

What games do you think that they can win? I don’t give them a ton. I set their four at three wins. That’s basically Sam Houston, Southern Utah and then one of the tossups and I set their ceiling at five. Again, I just don’t think that they can get to six unless they play the best football that they can. West Virginia, obviously a beatable team. Iowa State at this point a very beatable team.

Iowa State as a better team prior to all the incidents, but at this point I think you have to give BYU that game. Four or five games I think makes a ton of sense. Five and a half getting that hook. I think you’re getting a really good number to action about the under here.

Parker Fleming:

Yeah. Makes a ton of sense that defense is just not getting better. It’s really hard with BYU because their offense is clearly that they’ve shown they can hit very high ceilings on offense, but that defense is not getting better and their schedule does get a lot tougher there. Yeah. Kyle, anything on BYU? What do you make of the jump? I think even just bigger than BYU. A team jumping from an independent schedule to a P5 schedule, how is that going to affect them?

Kyle Hunter:

Yeah. I think my concern with BYU is that secondary was so bad even with the weaker schedule. Now you go play in a conference where there’s a lot of teams that can throw the football around pretty nicely. I can imagine how many passing yards some of their opponents are going to rack up this season.

I could see BYU being a good over team as far as betting totals. As far as the under, I would agree on leaning this way. The only thing that if you’re going to play the other side is they do have a great home field advantage. They could trip up somebody there that you don’t expect because of the tough time there in Provo. But the big step-up in competition, I think for under five and a half is a good look here.

Parker Fleming:

Yeah. Like it a whole lot. We’ll lock that in for Corbie, the under five and a half for BYU minus 125. Before we get to our next player, which is going to take us to the ACC, I do want to bring up something very quickly and see if either of you have thoughts. Corbie, you mentioned that Iowa State is in a bad situation and potentially very bad off. We won’t break news. We won’t speculate. I think people have heard about the Hunter Dekkers situation. As currently, he’s not practicing.

That number has come down for Iowa State. It is now at BetUS it is the under on 5 wins is minus 130, over is even money. It’s amazing how quickly some of this news got priced in. Now of course some of us heard about it back in the spring and again the strategy a little bit early on. But it’s really hard to bet an under at just the 5 minus 130 even knowing that their quarterback situation is so bad. It’s interesting to see how quickly that line has caught up.

Corbie Craig:

Yeah. My biggest issue with betting anything on this game is do you really think that he’s the only one betting on games if … I mean there’s been news come, there’s been analysis come that … there’s several players, but obviously he’s the most important of all of them. But I’m still not buying into the fact that all football players, if you’ve been around any university, they usually live in the same sequence. They try to stay together. They go to practice together. They have all the same classes. They eat lunch together.

If you assume the Dekkers is the only one betting on these games, I hate to break it to you. That’s not how college works. It wouldn’t surprise me if this becomes a much bigger ordeal than it is currently. I feel like that would’ve already broke. So maybe not. Maybe I’m just guessing. But it’s why I’ve laid away from every Iowa state possibility I can. I don’t even look at this team. Because if nothing comes, I do think that five is probably a little too low. I would lean towards the over, but I don’t think we’re done. For that reason, I will be hanging low for the time being.

Parker Fleming:

Yep. Yep. Definitely just one of those that a lot of people know and it’s out there. Not really a huge edge. All right. We’re going to go back east and hit some ACC bets here. We’ve got a couple plays. The first one, North Carolina, that line is at 8 minus 130 to the over, even money plus 100 to the under. There were nine and five in 2022. They were six and three in one score games. I want to say that again, six and three, which is just absolutely absurd.

They have that many one score games, 48th and EPA per play, 12th on offense driven obviously by Drake Maye, but they were 124th on defense, 32.8 points per game, 31.3 allowed. That was 104th in the nation. They are 43rd in returning production with 68% overall. Kyle, excuse me, Corbie, you’ve got to play on North Carolina here and I believe I’m going to join you in this. Talk to me about the Tar Heels and Mack Brown squad.

Corbie Craig:

Yeah. I’m not quick to enjoy the national news and it makes me look like a Debbie Downer. But here I am again. I watched Drake Maye, I watched too much of him and I’m not buying as quick that he is the reason that they were good as much as they had really good receivers. I believe it was Downs, 11 last year, it seemed like at every point he was all over the field.

I saw a game where he had 13 receptions. Though Drake Maye is a very good athlete, he is a very good quarterback, don’t get me wrong, I don’t think that he has a reason to price. I’ve seen numbers have this offense in the top 10. I don’t think this is a top 10 talent. I think that he is top 10. But other than that, I think there’s pieces that struggle and I give their defense 67th in the nation.

I don’t know. I think there’s a lot of issues and I think that the line at market shows that they have North Carolina, South Carolina as basically a tossup game. If they’re struggling versus South Carolina, they’re going to struggle versus Pittsburgh, they’re going to struggle versus Miami, versus Duke. I think Duke beats them, Clemson.

I think just to give them eight wins based off the fact that they have probably, what everybody’s considering the second-best quarterback in the nation, I think is a little too quick. Their defense is going to definitely have to step it up and they’re going to have to have pieces come together for sure to get there.

Parker Fleming:

Yep. I took this under. I had it on my sheet before we even got the Tez Walker news. I think there’s a big question mark about who Drake Maye was even going to throw to with Josh Downs who had a 30% target share of the last two years. He’s gone last year, skin of their absolute teeth with those one score games, a couple of games they definitely should have lost. I took an under seven and a half last year and lost that one.

But again, I’m trusting that that defense is not getting better. That wasn’t a fluke performance by that defense. The offense should take a step back. Syracuse, Miami, Virginia, Duke at home, but they have Pitt, GT, a team they lost last year, Clemson and North Carolina State on the road as well as a really tough South Carolina and App State and Minnesota and the non-con there.

Pretty rough would expect an under on this year. Don’t think that North Carolina is going to be able to replicate that one game success from last year. Even if Drake Maye is a top two quarterback in the nation, a top two draft pick, which I do believe he should be going to be hard with that wide receiver room for them to replicate that offensive success.

We’ll go ahead and lock that in. North Carolina under 8 plus 100. I think it’s just popping up on me, but I think Corbie, that’s an official play for you as well, correct?

Corbie Craig:

Yeah. It is something weird on the sheet. I don’t believe I took it, but we’ll see at the end. Whatever it is the end, I agree 8 is a number that I would play plus 100. I thought it was minus 115 for 8 so I laid off. But whatever it’s on the end of the sheet, by all means, we’ll take it.

Parker Fleming:

Okay. Wonderful. Wonderful. Well, I know for a fact that I’m taking North Carolina there and under. Kyle, do you have any comments about defensive coordinator, Gene Chizik, and the North Carolina Tar Heels defensive performance?

Kyle Hunter:

Yeah. I was going to say, Parker, are we supposed to just believe that North Carolina is going to get way better on defense? I feel like every year you see these preseason magazines. It’s like, “Well, they have too much talent to be this bad on defense and then they just keep being that bad on defense.” I want to see it before I believe it, that’s for sure.

I think it’s interesting to see North Carolina’s secondary. I mean they could not be much worse, but as Parker said, sometimes it can get actually worse when you don’t think it possibly can. The offense doesn’t have as much talent around Drake Maye as they had last year. North Carolina was very fortunate to win several games last year under eight. A very strong lean of mine as well. I like this.

Parker Fleming:

I like it when we agree, like it when we agree. We’ve got another Louisville … Another play in the ACC. Excuse me. Spoiled it there, but that’s all right. Louisville, the line is at eight wins for this season, minus 120, the over minus 110 to the under there, 8 and 5 in 2022. They’d had a sub 500 record in the 3 of the last 5 seasons. Of course, coach Scott Satterfield potentially got encouraged to go take the Cincinnati heat job and they bring in Jeff Brohm, another homecoming here for Brohm coming back in.

He reunites with quarterback Jack Plummer and hopefully put up some fireworks there in the offense on Louisville. They were 96th on offense last year, even as they were 17th on defense and EPA per play, 99th rather in returning production, that’s 56% of that unit coming back. Corbie, you’ve got to play on Louisville.

Corbie Craig:

Yeah. I believe Louisville was rated fourth … No. Tied for third to win their conference. Obviously, it’s Clemson, Florida State and then North Carolina, Louisville head in head at plus 1,000, which we just talked about North Carolina under. I don’t think that Louisville has a better team than North Carolina. We give North Carolina that edge.

For that sense, with a strength to schedule that I don’t think favors them by any means. I took the under eight for Louisville. I think that seven wins makes a ton of sense. I gave them a ceiling of seven. Obviously, I like the eight and a floor of six just due to the fact that they do play some easy games. I give them an 11-point spread versus Virginia Tech, which is now seven and a half.

It’s been steamed away, which means my numbers across the market like Louisville, and yet I still give them a floor or a ceiling of seven, which I found really interesting. Need to look into that Georgia Tech game a bit more. Maybe I like this team too much. But I made that game 31, 20 towards Louisville. It’s not like a direct hate of Louisville as a team, it’s more the strength of schedule that they play.

They have so many toss up games. I see just like in my projected spreads across the year, I have a one and a half, 5, 3, 5, 5 and I pick them throughout the rest of the year. Basically, you’re imagining that they beat Duke in a game. That should be a pretty good game. A Kentucky team, a Miami team, like yes, they’re going to be Virginia Tech, they will beat Virginia, they’ll beat Murray State, I hope.

Boston College should be a cakewalk, but are you giving them NC State, Notre Dame, Duke, Kentucky, Miami? They have to win half of those and I don’t. If they win half of those, they just pushed the eight. By all means, I think eight is a really good number. Eight and a half would be amazing. That was minus 160 probably a week before the show. But at this point an eight I think you’re feeling really good that it’s a push or nothing.

Parker Fleming:

Yeah. I’m interested in this and, Corbie, because we disagree here. I actually like Louisville and I’m interested in a flyer on Louisville to win the conference just because they don’t play Clemson or FSU, presumably one of those two teams is going to be on the other side if not in the ACC championship. But the returning production is not there. You’ve got to believe that Jack Plummer can be better than what he was at Cal.

Certainly, some question marks with Louisville there. But I understand the reasoning. Yeah. With those tossups, hey, let’s give him 50% each side on those tossup gains and do the math. It looks like that ceiling is pretty close to it. I like that. Kyle, any thoughts here before we get out of … Well, we’ve got one more in the ACC. But any thoughts on Louisville and value knowing that they miss Clemson and FSU, how this asymmetric unbalanced schedule in the ACC affects things when we’re talking about wind totals and when we’re talking about futures?

Kyle Hunter:

I think this is a tough one. I would’ve liked Louisville under eight and a half. I’m going to be pretty neutral on under eight. I think Brohm is a great fit and long-term he should do really well. The question is how does he do in year one? I think people are super high on Louisville based on the win total being what it is.

Based on Brohm has been very successful in the past, he’s a great fit here. I just wonder if it’s going to happen right away. They did lose a lot on defense. I don’t think they’re going to come up with the defensive line and linebackers. The linebacker spot to me looks like a big weakness for them and I think they had like 50 sacks last year, probably can’t duplicate that.

To me, offensive line learning, a new system expectation, super high. I think if I had to bet, I’d bet the under, but I don’t have any strong opinion here.

Parker Fleming:

Makes some sense there. That’s some good insight. We’ll lock that in for Corbie. Louisville under 8 minus 110. We’ll move to another bet. This one is from Gary wants to talk about the NC State Wolf Pack. We’ve got there six and a half. The over is minus 145. The under is plus 115. Last year there were 8 and 5, 24.3 points per game, 19.2 points per game allowed. That was 12th in terms of defense.

Obviously, some injury concerns that quarterbacks some issues there with some consistency for North Carolina State. But they do bring in Brennan Armstrong. He reunites with his offensive coordinator, Robert Anae. We’ve seen at Virginia that they could do some absolute great stuff when they were together. We’ll note in defense, because I know that Gary would bring this up.

Dave Doeren would’ve hit the over on this bet. Every season except two. He is won at least seven games in all but two of his seasons at North Carolina State. Very, very consistent. I’m inclined to agree with Gary here just because I don’t think that the floor is a six-win season for North Carolina State, even if their ceiling is kind of high. We’ll lock that in for Gary. NC State over six and a half minus 145 is Gary’s play on the Wolf Pack.

Kyle, any thoughts on the Wolf Pack as maybe an over team, maybe a future for the conference title?

Kyle Hunter:

Future for the conference title? I have to think about that one a little bit. But Armstrong, we saw what happened with him last year. It was just totally ugly season. But I think we all know that Brennan Armstrong is capable of big things, like you say, matches up again with the same offensive coordinator. I would definitely be inclined to think the over would be the better way to look at this. Doeren is a pretty consistently good head coach.

Where last year, Parker, you remember they were hyped so much. Everybody was talking about NC State. I don’t think anybody’s talked about NC State this year. I feel like Dave Doeren might like it that way. I would tend to think the over could be a good look. I also agree, Parker, I think betting totals single games, the over could have some value here because I think that offense really struggled last year with those backup quarterbacks and the defense lost a lot of guys from last year too.

Parker Fleming:

Yeah. Yep. Makes a lot of sense there. Get a little bit both ways. Corbie, what you got on North Carolina State?

Corbie Craig:

I got one thing here and I usually don’t have a hot takes on anything, but I think that this is hilarious. It’s something I noticed a few years back. I don’t think that Brennan Armstrong is a good quarterback, which is obviously decently hot take because he’s, I think, one of the highest yards maybe Virginia history. I could be wrong.

But he has numbers to say that he’s a good quarterback. I just show you this bit of information, it is hilarious to watch and it’s probably not why he’s good, but I still believe that it is. At Virginia, he had three receivers over 6’4″. It was his three main targets. It’s all he did. He throws the ball really high. It’s either an incomplete pass or they catch the ball.

He moves to a school in NC State. The week after he transfers, they get two receivers transfers and Devin Carter and Dacari Collins. Devin Carter is 6’4″ and Dacari Collins is 6’5″. He knows what he wants. He knows exactly what he wants. He is like, “Listen, I will come to your school if you can give me two receivers over 6’5″.” I mean, it’s not bad. Does it make him a bad quarterback that he knows what he wants? No. Yes. He’s good relative to what he does.

But I don’t think it’s due to pure talent. I think he knows, “I how to leverage height better than everybody else.” I just thought it was hilarious that he came in and then two transfers. Instantly, they were like, “Yo, we’ll be there with you.” They replicate what they did at Virginia with the three-headed monster of 6’5″ receivers when they were going crazy two years ago? Probably so. I don’t see why they couldn’t.

But it’ll be interesting to see if these receivers find their slot in the offense because right now they do have other receivers who … two of them are 5’10” and if they find their starting role, I think Brennan Armstrong struggles a little more. If you see height on the field, by all means, take Brennan Armstrong to do pretty well. But if not, I’m not too convinced that he can hit a slant pass to a 5’10” guy frequently.

Parker Fleming:

I like that. Well, hey look, in North Carolina States’ defense, there are worse plans than having a quarterback with a big arm and a couple of big dudes down there and just checking it up. Look, Sam Hartman made hay off that last year. We’ll see how it turns out like that play from Gary NC State over six and a half minus 145.

We’ll move over to the big 10 before we hit the SEC and the Q&A. Do want to remind you, hop in the chat. Got to be subscribed to the channel. We want to hear from you. Got a couple of good questions already. If there’s a bet you like, you’ve got a question about, toss it in there. We’ll hit it. If there’s a team we’re not hitting that you’re curious on, ask us and we’ll definitely get to that.

Let’s talk a little bit of Penn State. Penn State, their line is nine and a half minus 135 to the over plus 110 to the under. Last year, 11 and 2 won the Rose Bowl versus the Pac-12 champion. Their only loss were it’s a two playoff teams who were both in their division. Hard to ask for a lot more out of coach Franklin’s squad there at Penn State. They were 15th in EPA per play, 55th on offense, 7th on defense. They will be returning a quarterback. But they are 56th in returning production, 65% overall, 102nd on offense, 24th on defense.

This is going to be a fun one. Kyle, I think you and I agree and I think Gary from remote agrees with us. Talk to me about Penn State and this nine and a half line.

Kyle Hunter:

Yeah. It’s nice to see so much agreement on this one. I think this is a solid look. Penn State has so many big strengths as a team. This is not a team that just is decent in many spots. They’re really excellent. The secondary is the best in the country in my opinion. Defensive line is really good. Great pass rush, good run stuff and defensive tackles.

I think Singleton and Allen are really great tailback and probably underrated by many people. You hear about the Michigan running backs. I don’t think those Penn State running backs are that far behind. This is a Penn State team too. They get to play Michigan at home. They play at Ohio State. We talked about Ohio State last week. I think there are some question marks about Ohio State.

Certainly, Penn State has a very real chance of winning that game. I think they’ll win one of those two games. Whether they could win both would be pretty tough ask. But they don’t have to play Wisconsin or Minnesota from the west. This is a team where I think they have a really high floor. Penn State is very good. You have all these games.

We did talk about them some last week. But you have all these games that they’re going to be massive favorites in. They’d have to really trip up badly to not win at least eight or nine games. Then you’re just asking them to win one of those two games. Even if they don’t win one of those two games, Parker, I mean, let’s say they lose both of those games, there’s still a very real chance that they could win 10 games this year. If I think they’re going to win one of those two games, I have to take over nine and a half on this one.

Parker Fleming:

Totally agree. I think that if you do a little back in napkin math, just using SP plus, that’s a 54.5% chance they win at least one of those games. Feel okay about that, especially with the cushion elsewhere, West Virginia, Delaware, UMass and non-con and then the road slate. They have five including that Michigan State neutral game, but it’s Northwestern, Illinois, Maryland, Michigan State, and Ohio State.

Even if they just win the games that they should, 10 seems like a pretty good median outcome there. We talked about potentially some strategery last week in a future spat for Penn State. Go back and check that show out if you want some more details. Gary’s going to agree with me and Kyle, Corbie, it’s not too late. You can get in on this Penn State over nine and a half action for our first ever quadruple lock agreement on the [inaudible] lines over nine and a half minus 135.

Corbie Craig:

Yeah. I mean, it’s hard not to just show your cards forward in this schedule. The reason I didn’t lock it in is I’ve been looking across all locals for a exacta of 10 wins. I think that I would almost say that the most common answer in every case is a 10-win season where they lose to Ohio State and they lose to Michigan, which I have them as a 0.5 favorite versus Michigan, which is at home.

All right. We’ll lock it in because that gives them a potential for 11 nine and a half minus 140. Quadruple exact and let’s do it. I want Penn State too. I think 10 and 2 makes the most sense possible and if you can find a really good plus money number for that, I would be all over it. Then if you have to hedge the Michigan game, by all means, I don’t think you’re too worried about the end of the season.

Let’s see. After the Michigan game you have Rutgers and Michigan State. I think you could probably hedge your 10 and 2 spot in Michigan if you needed to.

Parker Fleming:

Absolutely. That’s some great insight there. Love it. Love that we bullied Corbie into agreeing with this too.

Kyle Hunter:

Peer pressure.

Corbie Craig:

We get a 135 too. Okay. Okay.

Parker Fleming:

It’s not terrible. It’s not terrible. We’ll take that Penn State over nine and a half minus 135. Kyle and Gary agree as well. Good segue there talking about how they end the season with Michigan State because that is going to be our final Big 10 team that we talk about here before we move over to the SEC. The Michigan State Spartans. Five and a half is the line plus 130 over minus 160 to the under 5 and 7 last year, 3 and 6 in conference.

Pretty big disappointment after being 15th in the preseason AP poll and the ratings before that, 113th in EPA per play, 100 on offense, 102 on defense. Not great from the Spartans. Kyle, you’ve got a play here. Are things going to turn around? What do we expect out of Michigan State this fall?

Kyle Hunter:

I think Payton Thorne, while he wasn’t great by any means, he’s a lot better than anybody on the roster here this year for Michigan State. Michigan State, if you look at the setup of their offense, I think the plan has to be to run the football a lot more. They lost their top two wide receivers. They were only 106th in rushing play success rate last year. I don’t think they’re going to just all once to be really good at running the football.

On defense, while they’re pretty good in the front seven on defense, it’s hard to overstate how bad the secondary is for Michigan State. I mean they are terrible. Bottom five secondary in the country last year. They’re going to be really, really bad again. Special teams also, Parker talks about special teams a lot really, really bad special teams team. They’re going to lose a game or two that they shouldn’t have lost because their special teams blew it.

Schedule-wise, I got six times that they would be an underdog of seven and a half points or more. Only two games that they’re favored by double digits. There’s not many free wins on this schedule and I think it’d be really hard. The first two games are those two games. But at Rutgers, Schiano coaches them up pretty well, at Indiana they probably win that game. But getting to six wins would be really tough in my opinion.

Obviously, the juice of minus 160 is not fantastic. But I think Michigan State could easily be a four and eight team this year.

Parker Fleming:

Yeah. It can get rough. It always can get worse with Thorne leaving and you think about this kind of a Faustian bargain Mel Tucker made to take these transfers and really have a good season and set the expectations really high and get that extension and they’re looking at a win total of five and a half two seasons after that. Really, really tough.

One thing that I’d like to point out, Kyle, you mentioned the rushing success rate. One stat I really like to look at is the differential in rushing success on plays with a blown block and without a blown block. This idea that when the rushing game goes right, how much better are you than when it goes wrong. That determines a lot of a team’s rushing ceiling. Like how much can you capitalize on the good ones?

Obviously, what percent of your blocks or what percent of your plays can you have blocked well, but then how well do you run when those plays are blocked well? 2021, Michigan State with Kenneth Walker plus 48.2 percentage points difference on plays with and without a blown block there, really, really great running game that was at the top of the nation.

In 2022 that came down to plus 36.5. That’s going to put you in the middle of the pack. We see a negative trend there, a step back, kind of expect that to continue as well with just Michigan State having trouble capitalizing on the success of the run game really, really limits what their offense can do. Not to mention the quarterback play. I’m inclined to believe with you Kyle.

The number was a little high for me for minus 160, but you do get that 5.5. I think this might be some pizza money here for me to talk about Michigan State and under five and a half. Corbie, any thoughts on the Spartans before we head over to the SEC?

Corbie Craig:

Yeah. I think the only game that I have circled that would make that of question is how do you think that Minnesota game in Minnesota is going to go? If you think that Michigan State loses that frequently, then by all means I think five and a half is probably a really good number. Minnesota is one of those teams … They’re really weird for me. I don’t love a Minnesota team and I think that Michigan State might have a fight in that battle, and for that reason I stayed off.

But I do think that it is a tossup. If you think Minnesota is the better team in that situation and by all means five and a half is a really good number.

Parker Fleming:

Yep. Makes a lot of sense. That’s locking it in for Kyle, Michigan State under five and a half minus 160. I’m going to toss little pizza money with him there, because again when Kyle says something I like to listen. I think that’s a good bet. All right. Finally, let’s get over to the SEC Before we get to the q and a and the recap. We are going to talk about the Arkansas Razorbacks. Great season last year, seven and six, won the Liberty Bowl versus Kansas.

First consecutive winning seasons for Arkansas since 2015, 2016, nine wins under Sam Pittman in 2021 was the best regular season win total for the Hogs since 2011. That number is 7 for regular season wins plus 110 to the over, minus 140 to the under. They were 47th in EPA per play, 34th on offense, 95th on defense. They are 54th in returning production, 106th in the nation and they will have a new offensive coordinator in Dan Enos this year. Kyle, talk to me about the Hogs.

Kyle Hunter:

Yeah. There was six and six last year in the regular season. I will say I bet Arkansas in that game against Kansas, one of the luckiest wins I’ve gotten. I mean just an insane comeback. That was a wild game in every way. Or was it? Maybe I’m remembering it wrong. Was it Arkansas had a big lead or Kansas? I can’t remember who was laying the points in that one. Do you remember?

Parker Fleming:

I want to constantly say Arkansas, but now I’m going to Google it while you talk about …

Kyle Hunter:

I was going to say maybe I saw …

Corbie Craig:

Pretty sure you’re right though.

Kyle Hunter:

I remember winning a bet thinking I had absolutely no business winning in that game. I don’t remember what it was, but …

Parker Fleming:

Kansas scored 18 points in the fourth quarter to push it overtime.

Kyle Hunter:

It was Kansas plus two and a half or something. I got super lucky to win that. But Arkansas should have won that one bigger than they did. They’re six and six last year. They finished negative 0.09 yards per play. They were 81st in the nation in that yards per play margin. Jefferson’s fantastic. I can’t say anything bad about him, certainly. But he better stay healthy.

The drop-off behind him is really significant. All top four wide receivers are gone. I think the offensive line, at least by Sam Pittman’s standards is not really that good. Not saying they’re bad, but they’re not tremendous by any means. You lose Drew Sanders and Bumper Pool, a great name too, and a huge losses, secondary still it. They were terrible last year. They’re going to be terrible again this year.

Look at the schedule too. At LSU, A&M, at Ole Miss, at Bama in four straight weeks right in the middle. That’s a brutal schedule. At Florida and home against Missouri, tricky games too. I don’t think those are easy ones. Seven feels like the ceiling to me. I’m going to take the under. I will be fair and say this is probably my least favorite of the picks that I had today just because KJ Jefferson is so good that it scares me a bit. But there are enough weaknesses on this team that against a good SEC schedule I have to take under seven.

Parker Fleming:

Makes a lot of sense. Kyle, I don’t know. You’re not buying the videos of Rocket Sanders. Just absolutely leveling dudes in practice. I don’t know if you’ve seen. He’s beefed up a little bit. Definitely a tough situation for Arkansas. Skin of their teeth last year and then that stretch, that schedule is just so hard this fall. Totally makes sense. Corbie, you got a feel on the Hawks?

Corbie Craig:

Yeah. It’s another hot take. When I say these hot takes, I don’t mean them very definitely, it’s just hot relative to market. It leans towards Kyle’s under seven. But I don’t think KJ Jefferson’s as good as a quarterback as everybody gives him credit for. I watch his stuff. I watch him verse Liberty. I see that granted … This is all watching a hurt KJ Jefferson. I think we can all agree. He was hurt for most of last year.

Take these with a grain of salt, but he does lose so many pieces that now uninjured now is his excuse that he doesn’t have talent, which stinks for him. But what I saw last year was a guy who had to scramble out of the pocket a ton, which he’s fast enough to do. But he would use his feet sometimes instead of his arm. It’s like you were a quarterback with pieces versus teams that significantly lower quality.

We would see at times he just … I wouldn’t say was afraid to throw, but he was apprehensive at times. By all means, I don’t think KJ Jefferson is this guy who can mold a team that doesn’t have talent around him. I do think that he’s a good glue guy. I’m not saying that he’s bad. I’m saying he’s bad relative to market. Give him good receivers, I think he’s a really good quarterback. But this team isn’t that. I tend to agree with the under seven there.

Parker Fleming:

Makes a ton of sense. Love it when we’re all thinking in the right direction there will be interesting to see again, just such a hard away slate for Arkansas this year. We’ve got one more pick. We’ve got a couple of questions that we’ll get to here in a second and then we’ll get to the recap. This last one is from Gary. Love it. Was expecting this out of Gary. Alabama, the Crimson Tide, 10 and a half is the line, plus 140 over minus 170 under, 11 and 2 in 2022 for Alabama, 41.1 points per game is 4th, 18.2 points allowed was 9th in the nation.

I don’t think we have to spend a lot of time on this to justify Gary’s pick plus money on Saban doing something that he basically does every year. They fixed a lot of issues from last year they think and potentially we will have a little bit of a better slate in terms of home road. Gary talks about a ton how Alabama just did so poorly on the road against the spread last year. Overall, they’ll get some of those games at home this year should line up a little nicer.

Obviously with the Crimson Tide you want to talk about returning production but it doesn’t matter because the talent is so much. It’s really not an issue that we’re worried about here. Kyle, Corbie, thoughts on Alabama? Thoughts on a plus 140 over 10 and a half bet?

Corbie Craig:

Yeah. My only worry is there’s a viral video right now of Jalen Milroe hitting a goalpost and then backing up 10 yards and doing it four times in a row. Clearly fake, which is … Clearly. It’s like the NFL fantasy like draft me videos and it’s like if you’re having to make fake videos about your accuracy, are you hearing too much of the buzz that you’re not a good thrower? I don’t know.

It was such a weird time that I was like, “Okay, boy. This is not needed. Go play football.” But then Nick Saban comes out of a press conference smiling ear to ear. It’s like, “All right. This man knows what he’s doing and it’s never fun to be an opponent knowing that Nick Saban is as excited to go into a season.”

Listen, I’m from Alabama. Tuscaloosa is 40 minutes away. You’re not going to talk me out of it over here. I agree with Gary. Roll Tide.

Parker Fleming:

Kyle?

Kyle Hunter:

I mean I think we said last week, if you’re laying minus 170 against Nick Saban, I feel like you have to show yourselves. This could be one of those ice cold takes exposed or something like that. But I think the over would be the only way you could look getting that plus money. Alabama still has that great program that has very few weaknesses. That could be the only way to look. I don’t know that I’m going to bet it, but that’s certainly my lead.

Parker Fleming:

I’m much more intrigued and again, plug that video from last week because I think it’s timeless and they clipped it up so you can just go find the Alabama clip on the YouTube. You can get plus money for Alabama to win the SEC right now, which that feels pretty good as well. In addition, if you think the over is going to hit, I don’t know why you wouldn’t bet that as well. Yeah. We’ll lock that in for Gary here. That’s Alabama an over of 10.5 plus 140.

That’s going to conclude our bets in place for the season. We’ll recap them really, really quickly. But first let’s get to some of the Q&A. Thanks for being in the chat. Appreciate you guys being here this week. Bearing with me trying to fill in for Gary. Our first question is from Fawkes Muldarr. If you were forced to pick one plus money play, what would it be?

I’ve got the lines up and so could read out some of those if that was helpful to you guys. I don’t know if you had one that kind of off the top of your head while you’re both thinking. I’ll say that right now at BetUS, you can get Auburn over six and a half wins for plus 110. I don’t hate it. I don’t hate that at all. The under is minus 140, over is plus 110. I think if you believe in Hugh Freeze and the fact that Auburn had a quit factor last year and had some terrible, terrible quarterback play and all they really need is okay quarterback play, I think that’s a really, really interesting bet for plus money.

Corbie or Kyle, anything stand out to you or anything on a plus money bet for its season total?

Corbie Craig:

Yeah. I’ve got a very random one. I just remember passing through and I couldn’t pull the trigger because I do think it falls on the number right under. But Texas State over four and a half wins plus 0.40 I believe. I am really big on these teams that have quarterback battles. I love the idea of two actually good quarterbacks going after it and potentially bringing out the best in players.

Texas State bring in an Auburn transfer. I think that they will have a battle and force. A team that probably isn’t going to be good to be good, I think they win four games very frequently, but plus 140, that’s some high juice to lay, like Texas State as a team.

Parker Fleming:

Don’t hate that at all. That’s one that I had circled earlier in the season. Kind of killed with the number before we got to the show to put it on there, but definitely one I had been looking at. Kyle, any plus money regular season win total bet for you?

Kyle Hunter:

I mean my favorite is the Western Kentucky plus 105, obviously, which that might be my favorite play that I gave out today. I like that one. Maybe Troy under 8 plus 135. Troy had quite a few things go right last year. I’m not saying I love it, but plus 135 is pretty big plus numbers. I don’t hate that one.

Parker Fleming:

Lou is the defensive coordinator, had a bunch of really, really, really good field position luck last year, turnover luck can totally see some regression from Troy like that one there. That’s pretty interesting. Can’t pronounce this. What is this? Demi God something. Demigod asks, “Love the show. Can we do a segment on teams that cover spreads the best versus the worst?” That’s fun. Kyle, I think I remember last off season, not this one but the [inaudible] we did best coaches against the spread and everything and so that recap kind of thing.

Maybe we can hit something like that in the off season or one of these preview shows. Maybe a little segment on that, could pull up some facts to. It’s a great question and something we certainly look at and think about and can do it on the show. Next question is again from Fawkes Muldarr. If you have any Pac-12 totals you feel strongly about. I don’t have any Pac-12 totals. I’m strongly about. I stayed away in general.

Corbie or Kyle, anyone in the Pac-12 that at least piqued your interest even if they’re not an official play? I mean part of that is the coy answer of if we liked one, we would’ve given it out on the show today. But knowing that’s true, anything that’s even on your radar in the Pac-12.

Kyle Hunter:

I mean for me I like UCLA over, so that would probably be my favorite play. Thinking the UCLA’s upside is there. However, there might be a better way to get a bigger plus money price with UCLA rather than just betting a season win total over. I think their upside is fairly high. I will say though, Pac-12 is one of them that I looked at and I was like, “I just want to stay away from this conference as far as anything I like too much.”

Parker Fleming:

Yeah. Corbie, what about you?

Corbie Craig:

One of the smelliest bets you could take, but it’s flat three now. At two and a half, I kind of liked Stanford over two and a half wins. They’re going to be bad. Don’t get me wrong. But two and a half wins, that’s UMass territory and I think they can at least fight to scrape out a third win at flat three. I don’t know if they win four games in next two years combined more the less this year. No there, but stayed completely away from the entire conference.

Parker Fleming:

Yeah. Part of that is something like Kyle hinted at, there’s potentially some better NCAAF odds to talk about winning the conference. But there’s also a lot of uncertainty. Even the old reliables, like how much is Cameron Rising going to play? We don’t know that about Utah and got to figure out what that’s going to look like. Yeah. Just a tough scene there. Ten12 podcast, shout out to Philip. Asks, we need you to pick the team picked to finish last in the Big 12.

West Virginia 4.5 at BetUS minus 140 to the over. West Virginia, all right, gun to your head. Got to pick a side here. Even if you’re just holding your nose. Corbie, what do you think West Virginia, four and a half?

Corbie Craig:

Oh, man. I could pull up my number. I don’t have it in front of me right now. I’d probably say under just due to the fact that there’s some teams that I picked totals on and West Virginia I gave at W. BYU, I think that the West Virginia game I made within a field goal. If I don’t think that BYU is going to do very great, can’t imagine that West Virginia and their strength schedule is going to look good. Under four and a half.

Parker Fleming:

Kyle?

Kyle Hunter:

I mean this would be one of the last ones I’d want to bet. But we said gun to the head. What are you going to take? I’m going to take under because I think it could just spiral out of control really badly. I don’t see many scenarios where West Virginia is really good and just goes way over the number, but I could see somewhere it just goes really badly. Just a slight lean to the under.

Parker Fleming:

Yeah. Just hard to see where some of those winds are. That schedule is pretty rough there down the stretch. Oklahoma State, UCF, they host BYU, but then they go Oklahoma and they get Baylor and Waco to end the season and travel to TCU. They’ve got Pitt and Penn State in the non-con. Very rough schedule. I think their offensive line’s going to be okay, but that really might not be enough to help. I think I’d have to lean towards an under, but I don’t love it. Obviously, none of that is an official play.

Last one for Gary K, asks us about Iowa. That’s over under 8 wins at BetUS minus 140 to the over. Love the comment, all caps, Iowa. Kyle, I’ll let you start our Iowa talk there. Does that number feel about right? Is there something that’s holding you back from an Iowa play or making you say I want some more information?

Kyle Hunter:

I mean doesn’t Iowa finish like eight and four every single year? I mean that feels about right to me. I don’t know how you could make it something other than eight. I don’t know. Is their offense actually going to be better? I will say Demi God says in chat heavy on Iowa unders again this year. The problem I have with being heavy on Iowa unders is they’re going to be so low. I mean you’re going to be betting such a low number.

Totals are down in general based on the rule change. Then Iowa, I mean they’ve just been a straight under team so much that everybody and their brother and mom and dad’s going to want to bet the under there. I think that could be difficult. Parker, I don’t know what I’d bet on a season win total with Iowa. I think they’re a high floor team. We know their defense is going to be really good, but what’s the ceiling? Is the ceiling really high? I don’t know. I think eight and four, I’d probably take an exact eight and four if I had to bet something here.

Parker Fleming:

Yeah. Yeah. It’s really hard for me to say that I believe something that’s going to happen. I believe that Iowa is firmly going to be within two to three plays of eight and four either direction. I don’t know that I have a strong lean on a season total here. Corbie, anything on Iowa?

Corbie Craig:

Yeah. I was checking what I make just based off my mocks. What I make their average points per game, I give them 21.2 points per game. If you think 21 points is enough to win nine games, looking at that strength of schedule, maybe. Iowa’s just literally the least fun team to bet on in all of sports possibly. Nothing for me. Was it Iowa’s punter or Iowa States’s punter got in trouble for gambling?

Parker Fleming:

Iowa’s Punter.

Corbie Craig:

Iowa. Again, this is no hard truth at all. But Iowa’s punter hangs out with Iowa’s kicker. Iowa’s kicker hangs out with the secondary team. Was the punter the only guy in the entire organization that was gambling. We will do gun to head hypothetical. I’m going to go no.

Parker Fleming:

Yeah. Potentially some murkiness there with eligibility and all that and we’ll know more comes to the season. But yeah, just a lot of questions and a lot of uncertainty all around there for Iowa. Not a strong lean for either of us. That looks to be the end of the Q&A. It is, oh my gosh, 10, 11 past the hour. We’ve been cruising classic and going over. I’m really doing an homage to Gary by letting us run past time there.

But we’ll do a quick recap before we get out of here of our best bets. I’ll let Corbie go first then Kyle. Then I’ll read mine and Gary’s bets to recap. Corbie, what are you taking on our regular season win totals?

Corbie Craig:

San Diego State under seven. I think I said minus four and a half, but you know what I’m meant. Under 7 minus 130. Navy under six and a half wins minus 145. BYU under five and a half wins minus 125. All unders, Louisville under 8 minus 110. Then you guys talked me into one over on the show, Penn State over nine and a half minus 135.

Parker Fleming:

Shout out to the production crew for getting that in here at the middle of the show. That’s an expert work. Kyle, what about you? What are your vets for this week?

Kyle Hunter:

I was going to say the same, Parker. We know the production crew works hard behind the scenes. That was a quick turnaround there. I like it. Western Kentucky over eight and a half at the plus 105. I like SMU over eight minus 165. Penn State over nine and a half. I like Michigan State under the five and a half and Arkansas under seven.

Parker Fleming:

Very nice. I’ll read off Gary’s tons of bets here. A lot of good plays from Gary. Western Michigan under three and a half minus 125. New Mexico State over five and a half at 160 … minus 160 rather. Hawaii under three and a half plus 105. Navy under six and a half minus 145. NC State minus 145 to go over six and a half. Penn State over nine and a half. The quadruple lock agreement bet minus 135 there for Penn State. Then Alabama plus money on Saban going over 10 and a half.

I, this week, have of course the Penn State bet. Have a North Carolina under eight plus 100 and SMU over eight minus 165, agreement with Kyle there. Then Colorado State over 5 minus 110. Woo. What a show. I don’t think I’ve talked this much in an entire 70-minute stretch in months, if not years. But very, very glad was able to fill in.

Corbie Craig, thanks for joining us. Find him at Keep Betting Co. I would not be surprised if you guys watching this don’t see Corbie again at some point this season. Always glad to have him on. Great follow on Twitter. Kyle Hunter, that’s at Kyle Hunter at Picks on Twitter, of course. I’m your host, Parker Fleming at Stats O’ War on Twitter. Make sure you’re like, subscribe, review, share the show to someone who likes football.

Appreciate you guys being in here. Appreciate the Q&A and the chat. We’ll be back next week with a little bit more action before this season. God bless college football. Don’t forget to check out our sportsbook website. We’ll see you next week.

 

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