Gary Segars:
Welcome in to the BetUS College Football Show, I’m your host, Gary Segars. You can follow me on Twitter @GaryWCE. Hopefully everybody enjoyed a wonderfully played college football National Championship game between Alabama and Georgia. Let me go ahead and introduce our experts. On the right side of your screen, we have got our professional award winning handicapper, Kyle Hunter. You can follow him on Twitter @KyleHunterPicks. Kyle, the game completely shifted when Jameson Williams went out. That was a weird one to watch considering the game script almost completely changed with just one player going out. You feel the same on that?
Kyle Hunter:
Yeah, sure. I think the game changed in a big way and it looked like that key turnover, the fumble, was going to lean it toward ‘Bama and then obviously Georgia got the running game going a little bit better, but I don’t think Georgia could have stopped Alabama the same way that they did if Williams had been in there, it certainly was a high drama game and a high quality college football game. Fun to watch for sure.
Gary Segars:
You have got that right. We will do a full breakdown here in a minute. Let’s go on and get our numerical guru in here, Parker Fleming, he’s on the left side of your screen. You can follow him on Twitter @StatsOfWar, Parker, fun game to watch. And it was nice that that was the finale of the football season. But obviously we’ve talked about it before. There is no off season, a lot of numbers to dive into and a lot of things moving right now in the world of college football after that game. Obviously we’re going to talk about futures numbers right now, but, man, what in the world is going on in this sport right now?
Parker Fleming:
Yeah, it’s crazy. I feel like the second that the national championship ended, everyone started dropping their preseason top 25 and just immediately flipped the calendar. So, it was a little bit of a a quick turnaround there, but, yeah, what’s crazy about all that too is we have all of spring ball ahead of us. We have all of transfer portal. We have another signing day ahead. There are probably some coaching changes that are going to happen between now and the start of the season. And Gary, let’s be honest, we’re good for one scandal. I don’t want to speak poorly of somebody, but something’s going to happen. There’s just so much time between now and the start of the season. It’s crazy to think that Monday night we were on the edge of our seat until the last three minutes of the game. And then we’re already talking about looking forward and 2022. So, I’m excited to get into it.
Gary Segars:
Most certainly. Let me go ahead and remind everybody. If you are watching the show, go ahead and hit that like button for us. We would certainly appreciate that, it helps out the show. And while you’re at it, go ahead and hit that subscribe button. Along with that, there’s a notification bell that’s right next to it, subscribe to the channel, hit the notification bell. That bell is going to let you know when we go live. And we are looking at, I believe, Wednesdays from here on out, it’s going to be a fun off season, lots of content to get to, we’re going to talk betting strategies, previews for the upcoming season, et cetera, everything that happens in this sport, we’re going to be right here to discuss it, to get us ready to bet online on it once we get to next season. And that should begin in late August of 2022.
Gary Segars:
So, let me go ahead and remind everybody. Sign up over at BetUS, betus.com, look, premier online sports book. It is where the game begins. Take advantage of all the deals, all the bonuses that they have right now, just open your browser, go over to betus.com. Get yourself signed up, plenty of promo codes, et cetera, so go ahead and take advantage of it. Let’s talk about the recap. Obviously we did not have a super successful championship game with the way that things ended up, but let’s look at what our college football picks did on the season. And let’s see, this is not quite updated, but that is perfectly fine. I ended up going 60 wins, 49 losses and four pushes the over in the championship game missed by one point. Kyle 45 and 33. Parker, 60, 77, and four on the season. That gives us a total overall record of 165, 159, and eight.
Gary Segars:
We were above 500, and that feels pretty good, tossing all three of us together. So, I feel good on that. Let’s see, The Flying Hawaiian has already jumped in. Kenneth Collins has jumped into the chat. You guys go ahead and jump into the chat as well. If you have any questions you would like for us to answer during the show or at the end of the show, we try and do a Q and A segment at the end of every show. Go ahead and toss it in there. And if you’re watching this after it is live, you can always jump into the comments, we love to search through there, answer some questions, et cetera, you can also reach out to us on Twitter as well. Gentlemen, we have got CFP early 2022 futures college football odds that are out right now. Let’s go ahead and start off. I’ll read through the first eight here.
Gary Segars:
You know what? Let me switch that. I want to talk recap for a minute. Okay. We haven’t talked about the Alabama Georgia game and I think we need to talk about that. So, I’m shifting things up on us, sorry to our producer for doing that, but let’s talk about this game. Okay. Alabama loses 33 to 18, Georgia first national championship, in 41 seasons, since 1980 was the last time that they won a national title. Of course, congratulations to the bulldog, Stetson Bennett. The former walk on quarterback gets a national title, that defense that everybody said was so dynamic, so incredible, so stout all season did find a way to get stops. They held Alabama to 18 points, but as I said in the intro to Kyle, and, Kyle, we’ll start with you on this.
Gary Segars:
The game completely shifted when Jameson Williams went out with the injury and it was early second quarter. I think the game script shifted because the way that Georgia was able to attack on the ground in the second half, had everything to do with Alabama not being able to get the ball into the end zone. Jameson Williams was on pace for around 200 yards. Yeah, the play that he got injured on was a 40 yard pass, but he had 65 yards total on four receptions. They were finding ways to get him open. I don’t know that Georgia even keying on him was able to find a way to get in front of him. If they’re not able to get in front of him, you turn one of those field goals into a touchdown. You turn Georgia’s deficit into a double digit deficit or a two score deficit.
Gary Segars:
And all of a sudden everything has completely shifted and Stetson Bennett, who only had to throw the ball nine times in the second half, then has to start maybe doing things he’s really uncomfortable with. And he did look uncomfortable for the majority of the night. Kyle, give me your thoughts on the way maybe this would’ve gone down had Williams not gotten injured, but also just what Georgia was able to do in the second half. They took advantage of it big time. And there was a point there where it looked like they weren’t going to be able to.
Kyle Hunter:
Yeah. I think it’s really hard to say exactly how the game would’ve gone, obviously, but it wouldn’t have gone the way it did. It wouldn’t have gone exactly that way. It was a great game. You’ve got to give George a lot of credit for the way they played. Their defense was tremendous in that game. I think some people had the wrong takeaway after that game, I saw way too much slander of Bryce Young. Bryce Young to me was very impressive, even in that game, I know that the numbers don’t look amazing and people say, look how many pass attempts he had. He was under all sorts of pressure, running, scrambling, trying to make things happen, throwing across his body. And let’s be honest, it wasn’t his fault on several of the drops. He put some really good passes in there to those young wide receivers, even Billingsley looking lost there at times.
Kyle Hunter:
So, I think Bryce Young played far better than most people think, and Stetson Bennett, great story. I like Stetson Bennett. For what? Maybe about three fourths of the game, Stetson Bennett was really bad, for a long time there in our group texts, we were like, man, Stetson Bennett. He’s having a really rough game here, and we have to give him credit for showing up there in the fourth quarter. After that fumble, he did play well. I don’t think that would’ve happened if they weren’t able to run the football before that, because that opened up the play action pass. And as Gary said, would they have been able to run the football and even set up that play action if they were losing by 10 points or 14 points or something like that?
Kyle Hunter:
So, like I said to you guys by text the other day, I think the big question is what would happen if those two teams played again? What would the line be? I think with Williams playing, it would probably be about [inaudible 00:08:48] maybe Georgia minus one, with Williams not playing, it’s kind of hard to say, he’s worth more to the point spread than you would think, especially if Metchie is also out. So, having said that, I thought Alabama played pretty well.
Kyle Hunter:
They just didn’t finish. They were well coached. They’re always well coached. We know that Saban had them ready to go. They just couldn’t finish. They were inside that 10 yard line several times, settling for field goals and, guys, the more I think about it, I really think [inaudible 00:09:17] probably should have won, because the two point conversions and then the blocked field goal, even Cameron Latu getting caught from behind. Several of the plays, the drop passes, there were definitely chances, even as good as the defenses played, it feels like 51, it could have definitely been higher in that.
Gary Segars:
Most certainly. Parker, we remember the 2017 national title game, that was the second in 26 with Tua hitting the deep Seattle route, of course, to Devonte Smith. In that game, it was freshman that took over, and freshman that had not been high impact players for Alabama for the majority of the season. And Saban just completely shifted what he was doing and moved to something different in the second half in that game. In this game, they were forced to move to freshman wide receivers or lowerclassmen wide receivers.
Gary Segars:
And they were not able to get it done. Jahleel Billingsley, who I thought would maybe have a breakout game, multiple drops, ran just miscommunicational routes. A lot of different issues, had I think four targets, didn’t have a single catch registered, and he is already in the transfer portal as of today. So, lots of issues there, but Alabama being forced into I think wide receivers that will be high impact players going forward once they have time to develop, it just goes to show that even though you do have a roster full of five star talent, until they are in the system for a while, and they are developed into what they can be, I don’t know that you can necessarily count on them to just reload and restock every single year out, right?
Parker Fleming:
Reps, man, reps are everything. And if you don’t have the reps, you can’t do it. And in Jahleel Billingsley’s defense, who among us has not been gotten by the turf monster multiple times in a big moment. So, he had the plays where it looked like a hand just reached up and grabbed him out of the out of the turf and brought him down. I think that’s really the missed opportunity here. A lot of fans want to look at this game and not us and not the people who watch this show, we’ve got a smart audience, but want to say, “Oh my gosh, Georgia whooped them, Georgia, they just whooped them.” And you have to look at a couple things. One, you have to look at the game script, that pick six at the end of the game.
Parker Fleming:
Again, I wouldn’t include something like that in my predictive metrics, because that doesn’t tell me about the relative quality between Georgia and Alabama. That’s Alabama just chucking things up at the last minute trying to get a comeback here. And if you look at the difference in opportunity, I think you get a really good measure of what happened. Kyle touched on this, but I have some harder numbers, six quality possessions for Alabama. That’s a first down inside the Georgia 40, they only scored 18 points. That’s three points per quality possession, for those of you keeping score at home. 5.06 points per quality possession on the season, that’s Alabama’s average. They only averaged three. They had at least two passes dropped in end zone. Cameron Latu was eight yards away from that before the defender he burned came back and caught him down field, not to mention a huge drop.
Parker Fleming:
And I believe that was the miscommunication from Billingsley that led to the field goal that was blocked. And so for Alabama’s offense, just looked a little bit like the Texas A and M game where they were comfortable, they weren’t in their element, and they really could not finish at all. If you look at the difference between them having Williams in and Williams out, when he was in, nine for 14 passing, 104 yards, without him, 26 for 43, for 265. So, obviously, sample size there is different, but that’s about a yard and a half of yards per completion, with and without him.
Gary Segars:
Yeah, well, check out the Latu catch, right?
Parker Fleming:
Yes. That’s where I was going to go. If you take that out… So, I didn’t even take out the Latu catch entirely. I just said give Bryce Young credit for the 20 yards in the air it went, because that was a great pass. Anything after that’s not really on Bryce Young, right? Let’s just say he got 20 instead of 61 there. Then it becomes 8.6 yards per completion without Williams, compared to 11.2 with him, again, some sample sizes there obviously. But I really think that without him the game was entirely changed. I think that if Bryce Young doesn’t get hit and gets that ball in front of Williams, not only does Williams run 50 yards, 40 yards for a touchdown or whatever, he might not have that awkward turnaround and do all that. I’m not putting blame on anybody, I’m just saying that was really disruptive.
Parker Fleming:
And the game could have gone very differently at that moment. On the flip side, talking about opportunity, I think it’s the funniest thing in the world that Stetson Bennett was the MVP. He was worth negative 4.5 total EPA, four and a half points worse off, his team. If you take the fumble out, because of course that play is going to give him a lot of negative plays, I have him still at about negative two, which is just not great for a quarterback there. And you look at his two big plays and the highlight moments. And again, we can separate if you’re a Georgia fan, enjoy this, plug your ears. Don’t listen to the next couple of minutes. But you look at those two plays. One, Gary, was a ball that you, me, or Kyle could have stood there and just gotten in the neighborhood and George Pickens would’ve brought it down on that busted coverage, a decent quarterback.
Parker Fleming:
That’s six points right there, and that’s huge, that he just absolutely could not put that ball where it needed to be. Because that was wide open. The second one, Alabama jumps off side, he’s got a free play. One, he gets some confidence there. That’s great. And that’s good for him. But if you go look, Mitchell reaches over the Alabama defender, pulls the ball to his shoulder, turns, comes down, hits the ground and holds it. Just an absolutely fantastic catch, good for Stetson Bennett getting the ball in the neighborhood. But even his two big plays. Man, he was just awful. And my question, I think we were texting about this a little bit. You could run it back with Stetson Bennett next year. You could probably have a really, really good defense and do some similar things, but with so many guys in the transfer portal, why would you? Why would you not at least try and get some competition for a healthy guy there?
Gary Segars:
I talked to somebody else about this, and this is a question for both of you, Stetson was the leader of the team. He completely took over that locker room. Those guys played for him. I don’t know how or why or what happened to get him to be the leader of the team, typically starting quarterbacks do that. If you were watching the pregame stuff, Bryce Young, last one in the locker room, he was right in between everybody that was going into the locker room right before they came back out for kickoff and he was high fiving everybody, et cetera. He was the last one off the field. Last one into the locker room. It’s Bryce Young’s team. It’s kind of the same thing with Georgia. They were all congratulating him.
Gary Segars:
Everything was about him. And it’s been like that in that locker room since mid-October, somewhere around there. And I don’t know if you can take the team away from him, leading into this next season, if Stetson does come back, we’ve all seen that he is not an NFL quarterback. But losing as much as they do on defense, et cetera, you’re going to have to maybe generate more on offense than you were able to this season. Offense was you could play comfortably with your offense. You didn’t have to take a ton of chances or anything like that when your defense was as dominant as they were this season.
Gary Segars:
With Stetson Bennett being the leader of the team, if he comes back, I don’t know how you just take it away from him unless he is so bad and there is obviously somebody that is so much better, that’s the only difference. That’s the only thing that I can think of. I just find it really weird that you would be in this situation. We saw Georgia do this with Jake Fromm, Jake Fromm got them to a national championship game. The first time they had been there in forever, and they played him over Justin Fields, are they going to do the same with Stetson? That’s what I’m curious about is this puts you in a really weird predicament going forward. Kyle, what do you think about this?
Kyle Hunter:
Well, like I said, I don’t want to talk too badly about Stetson Bennett. I like him, it’s a great story.
Gary Segars:
Great to report.
Kyle Hunter:
Yeah. And I like Bryce young a lot too. I think both of them are very likable, good leaders, I just think it’s so hard to win a championship with a guy like Stetson Bennett against a team like Alabama. For the majority of that game, I was sitting there telling the people watching with me, man, it’s just so hard to beat Alabama with Stetson Bennett. You need somebody a little bit better than Stetson Bennett, as fun as he is, and as great of a story, it’s too big of a disadvantage to be going against Bryce Young, Nick Saban. So, you have the best defense we’ve seen in years at Georgia.
Kyle Hunter:
They can’t be that good on defense every single season. So, they’re going to have to be better on offense. I don’t think Stetson Bennett can be a lot better than what he was. I just don’t know that his upside is there. I think a lot of Georgia fans would think that Vandergriff would get a decent chance here going forward. And we could see kind of a Brock to Brock connection, but, I don’t know, Gary, I understand not wanting to take it away from Stetson Bennett, and it’d be hard, but I would be really surprised if they’re able to win it again with Stetson Bennett.
Kyle Hunter:
And this is maybe a different question, but I think you could also question whether it is actually great for Georgia in the long run that they kind of win the way that they did there because they haven’t had to innovate offensively. They won with defense. Kirby is very conservative, their offense, you know how Saban changed the way he played and it worked tremendously in the past decade, is Kirby just going to keep playing so conservatively on offense and try to lean on the defense? Your defense won’t always be that good. I think it’s going to be really hard to do with Stetson Bennett, so I understand both sides of that, but, yeah, I just don’t think Bennett’s good enough to consistently put you at that level.
Gary Segars:
It is something to look at with Georgia’s schedule this year, right? We talked about their schedule in the regular season, Clemson, not a great offensive football team, but they didn’t really have a lot of challengers in the regular season. And then you get into the postseason, blasted by Alabama in the SCC championship game, but they had both of their dynamic receivers for one half. And then in the second half Georgia was able to slow them down. They only scored, what, 10 points after halftime, somewhere around there, or 17 after the half. And then one was the opening drive. But, yes, looking at what they did, getting into the playoff, they went up against Michigan, who doesn’t have a lot of dynamic players. It’s not a super modern offense. And then you get to play Alabama without both of their top wide receivers.
Gary Segars:
It’s completely different, I wonder how much of this was scheduling dynamic. Again, this is to take nothing away from Georgia. They were able to win this playing the way that Kirby wanted to play. And what you’re saying, Kyle, I think is right, now that you are in this situation, you have won a title playing it the way that you want to, does it make him a little more resilient to changing his philosophy? That’s what Georgia fans I think have to worry about.
Gary Segars:
I don’t imagine that we will get to a point where they’re another 41 years away from a national championship with the way that they’re recruiting. But it does make you wonder whether or not he will be willing to innovate that offense, maybe loosen the reins a little bit going forward. I would imagine he will eventually, because he has seen everybody else have to do it, but we shall see, their schedule for next season isn’t exactly crazy. But we’ll talk about that here in just a little bit. Parker, you got any more parting words for the national title game?
Parker Fleming:
One, it was a great game. It was exciting going back and forth and I do think that… Bryce Young had almost a hundred yards left on the table from drops, there was just nothing he can do. And he was pressured a ton and looked really, really good. And you just have to ask how likely is it if they played again and Jameson Williams was healthy, would we get the same outcome? And that I think is the big picture thing. A lot of people point to, what is it, San Francisco a couple of years ago went really far in the playoffs with a really heavy run game. And they said, hey, see, in the NFL, you can run, you can do this. And I think people want to see that with Georgia.
Parker Fleming:
And you have to look at, Clemson had to have the worst season that they’ve had in a long time, Georgia had to play an SCC East that was years in the making for how terrible they were. And they had to have Alabama have not one but both of their top running backs out and have issues along the offensive line. So many things had to come into place for Georgia’s brand of football to work this year. And so I do think that going forward, you’d definitely ding them if they aren’t able to find some kind of consistent high volume passing offense.
Gary Segars:
No, you’re 100% right. And it’s kind of the same thing that had to happen for Cincinnati to get there this season, it was a lot of the same stuff. Looking in the chat here, Kenneth Collins, Q and A, maybe list the top upperclassmen quarterbacks for the upcoming season. We will talk about the teams and whether or not they have returning starters, et cetera. There are a lot of quarterbacks moving around the country just because you have an upperclassmen at quarterback doesn’t necessarily mean anything. We have seen Joe Burrow win a title, we’ve seen all kinds of things happen. So, obviously we’ll be hitting on the transfer portal, et cetera. Bruce, let’s see, I know you don’t do it this way, but for me, the entire Georgia defense was the MVP, loved watching a game with that kind of defense. He’s 100% right.
Gary Segars:
That defense was fantastic. You were able to get them, but for the most part, they did exactly what they were supposed to do. That defense was very, very incredible. Let’s move into the CFP too early, the playoff odds for next season, the title odds, who can take home a championship next year? That is the question. That is what you can gamble on over at BetUS right now. And I’ll go on and read these off. We’ll go one by one here, Georgia, plus 250, Alabama, plus 250. Both of those are the highest ranked teams there. Ohio State, plus 750, which those odds are a little crazy to me. I figured they would’ve shorter than that. Clemson, plus 1,100, Oregon plus 2,800, Texas A and M the same, Oklahoma the same, and Michigan the same.
Gary Segars:
Now, gentlemen, let’s start off with your national champions, the Georgia Bulldogs, at plus 250. Team talent composite for last season, they were number two. They have the number three overall recruiting class. Now, this is recruits and transfers coming in, so these might read a little different than what you see on some of the other sites, but number three, recruiting class coming in, they are still going to be super talented. The question, of course, like we just talked about, Stetson is back, but who plays quarterback? That’s going to be the question here.
Gary Segars:
They lose a ton on defense, and I’m talking a ton of players, Nakobe Dean, just a bunch of guys. They also lose the defensive coordinator, Dan Lanning. They have new defensive coordinators, which were both guys that were already on staff, Glenn Schumann, who handled linebackers, and Will Muschamp, who got to be an on field assistant this year because of Scott Cochran being gone.
Gary Segars:
So, let me get some ideas back. They’ve got nine guys coming back on offense, but only five on defense. The schedule is a little crazy, right, to Oregon, but then, from there, I don’t know, it’s an SCC schedule, Auburn, Florida, Tennessee, and then the only road game really is at Kentucky, at South Carolina. Maybe early, maybe you can get them early, I guess, who knows? Parker, let’s start with you on the Bulldogs. Talent wise. Yes. Starting quarterback is coming back. We’ve already talked about that. With losing this much on defense, unless they have a big philosophical shift on offense, does Georgia get back there?
Parker Fleming:
I certainly think that they are likely to, just given the way the schedule breaks down. I will say, I don’t know that Dan Lanning was necessarily revered as a play caller so much as he was just a defensive mind and [inaudible 00:26:08] guy. And so they’ve got a lot of off season with a lot of smart people to make up for losing him. That’s not as big an impact as a team who’s losing a guy who is an excellent play caller and everything. Not that Lanning’s not, I’m just saying that’s not his calling card. And so that does dull that loss just a little bit. The issue for me, they’re going to have athletes in there, in the defense. I think if they weren’t losing Lanning, I’d be a little bit more confident about turning over, losing some five stars and getting some five stars in there, but you lose eight or nine starters and you lose your defensive coordinator, obviously a red flag there.
Parker Fleming:
I think there are a couple trap games on this schedule. I think they host Auburn, which could be a little bit annoying, and they go to Mississippi State. Again, that’s a little later in the season. So, the narrative of maybe having to face Leach with a lot of inexperience on defense could be an issue, but there’s no reason they shouldn’t win the East. And so of course, if you’re looking at probability that they win the title, well, the first hurdle is probability that they make it to their conference championship game with one or fewer losses, probability then they either win the SCC championship or have no losses coming in. And then probability that they win the first game, very high early on in those first order conditions for Georgia to win there this season. They were second in my opponent adjusted point margin at plus 430.9, which is just a whole bunch of points.
Parker Fleming:
Only them and Alabama were the only team teams that were above even 380 this season. So, they’re going to regress on defense just because they were historically one of, if not the best, defenses in the entirety of college football history. And so they’re just not going to be able to do that again. The question does become can you sustain a 60% early downs rush rate in a negative rushing EPA and still win? I really think they’ve got to figure out how to, one, get more dynamic on early downs in passing, and that’s going to be hard losing George Pickens, a guy who a lot of times Stetson Bennett could just toss in the ball and close his eyes and hope for the best. And it would work out when Pickens was healthy and involved.
Parker Fleming:
So, I’m skeptical about the offense, obviously with them being the highest favorite here, I don’t know that I want to bet this one. And I really think that it’s hard to repeat as a champion in college football, one. Two, it’s hard to repeat when you’re losing a coordinator and losing a lot of returning experience. Three, it’s hard to repeat when you won under the circumstances that you did, and you have a very limited passing offense.
Gary Segars:
Correct, this team has not been there before. Kyle, plus 250. I just don’t know about the value on this, considering what they are losing on really their best unit. They’re bringing back five starters on defense. If you look at the guys that they are actually losing, Jordan Davis and Nakobe Dean and Travon Walker, Devonte Wyatt, right, linebacker Channing Tindall, the cornerback Derion Kendrick. It’s ridiculous. It is really ridiculous what they are losing. And, now, they’re bringing back some guys that are going to be really, really good, obviously. And they’ve got a whole stable of guys that they may have developed, but trying to get that same kind of championship chemistry year after year is incredibly difficult. We’ve seen a lot of teams try it, plus 250, do we expect this maybe to drop some?
Kyle Hunter:
Yeah, I think plus 250 is too short of a number. I wouldn’t be interested in taking Georgia at that, and for Georgia and Alabama to have the same price I think is probably wrong. The only thing you can say about Georgia is their schedule is pretty easy. So, it makes it easier for them to get back there. But Alabama has to be power rated a higher team going into next season than Georgia. And I don’t think it would be extremely close. So, Jordan Davis is going to be really hard to… You can’t just step in somebody else and do Jordan Davis and Nakobe Dean and guys like that.
Kyle Hunter:
I realize they have great recruits and I’m laughing at [Anup’s 00:30:24] comments in the chats there about Oregon. Some solid work there in the chat, it kind of threw me off. That was funny. But to me, yeah, Georgia, they’re a good team. They’re going to be good again next year, plus 250, not nearly a high enough price for me to be interested there. The biggest pro is, like I said, their schedule is easier. So, maybe they make it back to that playoffs, but it would surprise me if they win it again next year.
Gary Segars:
Agreed. We’ll move over to Alabama.
Parker Fleming:
Sorry, I was going to say about Alabama too, so this might have been a bad time to jump in.
Gary Segars:
Go ahead.
Parker Fleming:
You’re also betting that Georgia wins against Alabama the same way they did this year. So, they’re going to have to play Alabama twice more likely than not. And you’re betting that they will either lose the first one and win the second one or win both of them and not win the first one and lose the second one or lose both of them. I don’t know, the implied odds there I don’t think line up with the specific sequencing of having to play Alabama twice as well.
Gary Segars:
No, it really does not. It really does not. But that plays into Alabama next, of course they are also plus 250, six on offense back, seven returning starters on defense, both kickers are back, the punter and the place kicker. They lose Evan Neal, they lose Mathis, they lose Jameson Williams. We believe they lose Jameson Williams. We think they probably lose John Metchie. Jordan Battle, the safety, Joe, the cornerback who didn’t even play in the playoff. Brian Robinson, people forget Brian Robinson was the number one tailback from the beginning of the season. And then the backup for him for the last month plus was Trey Sanders, who was actually number five on the death chart coming into the season. They lost three running backs to different injuries from late October into early November. So, that changes things as well.
Gary Segars:
You are bringing in the cornerback, Elias Ricks, from LSU. You’re bringing the running back, Jahmyr Gibbs, from Georgia Tech. Both of those are All Conference performers, might be possibly losing Bill O’Brien. We don’t really know as of this moment, but we have seen Saban replace coordinators before. It has happened multiple times. Bryce young is back, Will Anderson is back, Dallas Turner is back, Kool-Aid McKinstry, they’ve got a whole slew of guys that are going to be the core of next year’s team.
Gary Segars:
Along with that, the schedule. At Texas early, then you’ve got at Arkansas October 1st, you got Texas A and M, at Tennessee, at LSU, at Ole Miss. And you’ve got Auburn. All losable games, but can you get Alabama beat twice? That’s what we saw this season. You had to get them beat twice in order to take it away. Parker, let’s start off with you on this. They’ve got to reestablish their offensive line. They got to figure out what to do with that. They’re number one in team talent, they were the number two overall recruiting class. Give me your thoughts.
Parker Fleming:
Yeah, I think the biggest thing for me for Alabama is if you look at this year, they had issues with depth. So, if you’re concerned that that’s going to be an issue again this season, there’s a reason to not bet them because of the way their schedule kind of hits each other. So, they have away games, they have Arkansas, TAM U, and Tennessee back to back, and then they travel to Ole Miss and to LSU back to back. And that is a six game stretch right there. I think there’s one game breaking that up, but that’s a beating. That’s your best shot from a couple of very good teams every week back to back. So, that one is a little worrisome. I think that, not that Alabama necessarily needs to worry about this, but other teams do, Texas will turn out to be a good enough win.
Parker Fleming:
There might be a case where Texas gets better as the year goes on and they’ll get a solid win against them. And then that’ll age well, unlike Arkansas’s win against Texas did this year. Utah State should be close to conference champions. So, they will be afforded one loss, they’d be afforded one loss if they played Maryland four times for their non-conference games. But I think that they obviously have the cushion there. The scheduling sequencing kind of works. Their offensive line is going to be better this year. It can’t be worse. It’s going to be more experienced. Some of those guys whose biggest knock was, hey, they’re not experienced, they got in and got some experience next year, coming in they’ll definitely be better. The high volume passing, really liked what they showed this season. They were one of the most pass heavy teams, especially on early downs. That kind of aggressiveness, I think whoever Saban brings in as an offensive coordinator, even if it is Joe Judge, I think he’ll make him pass a little bit more than they have been.
Parker Fleming:
They’re kind of behind in the hiring cycle. So, it’s interesting to see what happens, but that’s plug and play, that’s how we do it. We do things a certain way. Hey, here’s Sark’s playbook. Don’t screw this up. So, that won’t be too big of an issue like it would be otherwise, but that kind of sequencing makes me a little bit worried about injuries. And again, they’re going to have to beat Georgia at least once in the SCC championship, if not twice, playing them again.
Parker Fleming:
So, kind of the same things, it’s hard to beat that team twice and it’s hard to get the sequence of beating them twice, but it’s really hard to not want to bet a team who has maybe the best quarterback in the nation, has arguably the best quarterback in the nation, has an offensive line who’s going to be better and has a bunch of four and five star guys around him on offense. Will Anderson’s coming back too. And that defense is going to be profoundly annoying regardless of whatever turnover they have there. So, again, it’s 250. I don’t know that this is a huge value bet. I think I would be more inclined about this than I would Georgia. Like Kyle said, I think I would have Alabama power rating just a little bit higher.
Gary Segars:
Alabama revenge tour typically seems to pay out relatively well, but obviously, plus 250, we’ll see what happens with that. Will Anderson coming back, Kyle, he’s maybe the best defensive player in the country this year. You might could say Aiden Hutchinson, maybe a couple other guys, but Will Anderson, highly expected to go as number one overall pick next season if somebody does not choose a quarterback, of course. Give me your thoughts here. Plus 250, value, if you’re looking at teams that can actually win a national championship with the way that they are currently constructed, at least right now headed into next season, this has got to be one of them, right?
Kyle Hunter:
Yeah. I’ll keep it quicker here. I just think you start with Saban, Bryce Young, Will Anderson. You’re going to be the favorite for me. Those guys give you such a great starting spot, it’s hard to see Alabama not having an amazing season next year. Now, that is a tough schedule, you compare their schedule to Georgia’s schedule, and there’s a pretty big difference there. So, if some kind of injuries creep up, it could be a bit of an issue. But the only thing I’ll say is, plus 250, I don’t really like taking the favorite on a future, especially this far away, you’re locking up money for a really long time. Who’s to say that Alabama couldn’t have a poor showing in one of their game early next year and we get plus 350 or plus 400 or something like that? I’d rather look at it as something like that. I think Alabama is deserving to be the favorite though. So, they should book their spot in the playoffs next year I would think.
Gary Segars:
Now, Kyle, I’m going to start off with you on this one, Ohio State, plus 250. Six starters back on offense, seven back on defense, special teams, returns one, they’ve got Notre Dame to start, Wisconsin at home, at Michigan State, Iowa at home, at Penn State, and they’ve got Michigan. CJ Stroud coming back, of course, that wide receiver room is still maybe the best in the country. And if not the best, probably at no worse than two. They are just loaded, Jackson Smith and [inaudible 00:38:24] and all those guys, Marvin Harrison Jr.
Gary Segars:
You saw what they did to Utah in the Rose Bowl. Jim Knowles is the new defensive coordinator. Offense is loaded. They lose some weapons. They lose Garrett Wilson. They lose Chris Olave, et cetera, but they got dudes. They were already number three in total team talent per 247. They brought in the number four recruiting class. That’s not going down, they are as loaded as you can possibly be. And at plus 750, now, I think the biggest question here is is Ryan Day going to leave for an NFL job? I think that might be why these odds are where they are, but regardless, if they were to bring in somebody else, they’re still going to be set up to go play for a national title next year. That’s how I feel about it, Kyle, which way are you leaning here?
Kyle Hunter:
Yeah. I’m glad you said it first because me being a Buckeyes fan, I didn’t want to sound like a [homer 00:39:18] saying plus 750. Really, it is a pretty good price, and I think that this is a real solid value. If you want to look for a, quote unquote, “longer shot”, and it’s hard to call Ohio State a longer shot, but the ceiling is extremely high for the Buckeyes. We know that. I’m not exactly sure where the floor is. I think it depends on how Knowles can do with the defense, because the skill position and talent on offense is just amazing. They’re tremendous.
Kyle Hunter:
Are the linebackers in secondary going to be good enough for Knowles to work with? The defensive line’s good enough, Hicks is going to be a good linebacker coming in there, I assume he’ll start right away for Ohio State, but the schedule is not easy. It’s not the hardest one I’ve ever seen. Plus 750 seems like a pretty big drop off from 250 to 750 when a lot of people are going to put Ohio State as their number two team in the preseason rankings next year. So, I’m surprised Georgia is plus 250 and Ohio State is plus 750. So, if I were taking one of the top three, as far as futures odds, I would take Ohio State here.
Gary Segars:
Most certainly. Parker, defense of course was the question this year. And I think it will be heading into next season, but I don’t know that they can’t just overwhelm some of these teams with their offense, looking at the schedule, which way are you looking?
Parker Fleming:
Yeah. Any defensive improvement certainly just gives that amazing offense some breathing room. The Buckeyes finished 39th in EPA per play on defense allowed, which if we’re talking about an elite team is awful. Auburn was better. East Carolina was better, shout out Mike Houston. But that’s just not good, you have to be closer to top 20 raw, even not accounting for schedule, you can’t be that bad. Oklahoma State was third. And so I think that Jim Knowles is going to come in and have an immediate impact. I do think there’s an interesting conversation to be had about Knowles. If you look at the guys that Oklahoma State succeeded with, Brock Martin, Malcolm Rodriguez, Trace Ford, Kolby Harvell-Peel, highly recruited guys, but also big chips on their shoulder. We went to Oklahoma State, we didn’t go to Ohio State.
Parker Fleming:
We weren’t given the silver spoon throughout high school, went to big elite camps and all that. I think Brock Martin was a wrestler, and they said, hey, come play football. So, he was a little bit grungier than I think Ohio State has been on defense ever. And so maybe he can bring some of that grunge over and then put five star athletes in that play. But I do think that he’ll have an impact. Also, with the offense, it might just not matter. CJ Stroud, in the regular season, was first in total EPA by almost 30 points over the next highest person. The next highest person was Bailey Zappe, who had almost two times as many passes as CJ Stroud, that’s just absurd.
Parker Fleming:
He was just so explosive and so efficient. And we saw that they can win a race. I do wonder if they spend some time this off season tuning up some of the special teams kind of nonsense, because that there was a little bit of an issue, we saw in the Rose Bowl they gave up so many yards there. I do think that there are correctable issues on the intangibles. And I think that Knowles, who is a really good culture guy, will come in and help with a lot of that. My question for this is regarding Ryan Day, because that’s something I had written down. I would take the Ohio State Buckeye with 750 with Luke Fickell as the head coach. If CJ Stroud was still the quarterback.
Kyle Hunter:
Same.
Parker Fleming:
I might take it if Matt Campbell was the head coach, with CJ Stroud still as the quarterback. So, I don’t know, it’s priced in I’m sure, but I still feel okay about 750. It is rough, Wisconsin and Iowa, but Iowa, not going to have the offense to beat you. And I think that Wisconsin definitely got better as the season went on, but their schedule definitely got easier, which it’s weird when those things coincide. And so I don’t know that I’m sold on Wisconsin as being the obvious obvious favorite, and that being something that would derail Ohio State completely. One thing to look at is their non-con. They do have Notre Dame. That’s basically a defacto playoff elimination match. So, they’ll have the resume wins, they’ll have the leeway to lose a game I think and still get in. And if they can improve their defense, even 10%, 15%, if that offense is anything like we think it will be, I think 750 is a pretty good bet here.
Gary Segars:
I don’t know that it gets past Luke Fickell. They’ve got a guy waiting in the wings. As soon as Ryan Day takes another job, if he ever does, which I don’t know necessarily why you would, Luke Fickell does not turn down Ohio State, that just does not happen. And, yeah, plus 750, even with him as the head coach, totally on board. I don’t think he would even necessarily change staff. I think a lot of those guys would stay at Ohio State as opposed to go somewhere in the NFL.
Gary Segars:
We’ll move on. I think those top three are the ones that we are going to spend the most time on. We’ll roll through some issues with the next ones. Clemson, plus 1,111, starters back on offense. That’s good, I guess, typically, except for the fact that, I think we said this in our previews last year, just because you bring back trash doesn’t mean it’s better trash, right?
Gary Segars:
It’s still trash. That offense needs something. I don’t know what they need. They need a better offensive line is what they need. And they are certainly going out and searching in the portal for that, which is something they have not done in the past. DJ is coming back. Can he improve, DJ Uiagalelei, or does Cade Klubnik take over the job? He’s their five star freshman quarterback that’s coming in. Team talent, they’re number four, which is why they have these odds as of right now. They are number 28, as far as their recruiting class right now, and the national signing day, the original one is at the beginning of February. So, we’ll talk more about that as we get into February. But the question here is, does Dabo’s system still work when you don’t have maybe the best defensive coordinator in the game as your DC? Brent Venables took over the Oklahoma head coach and job, and they lost their offensive coordinator, Tony Elliot, to the Virginia head coaching job.
Gary Segars:
A lot of questions about this Clemson program. And when you look at the schedule, they’ve got at Notre Dame, and then they don’t have dates on these, but you got to play at Boston College, at Florida State, at Wake Forest. And then you’ve still got Miami and NC State coming into your place. In the past, you would’ve just looked right over those, but they lost a pit this year and they lost to NC State. Georgia, of course they lost to the eventual national champion. But if you don’t get that offense fixed, you can lose several of these games.
Gary Segars:
Kyle, let’s start off with you on this. Obviously, Clemson, we had had big issues with their offense just not being able to do anything this past year. And now you’re replacing both coordinators with in-house guys. How do you feel about this team?
Kyle Hunter:
There’s no way I would bet plus 1,100 with Clemson. It’s not even close to enough for me. Like you said, so everybody comes back on the offense and in my notes I put, is that a good thing? I don’t think it is, so is DJ going to be the quarterback there again? It would surprise me if he wins the quarterback job again, as bad as he played this year. And really, that schedule is fairly difficult. At Notre Dame, at Wake Forest is going to be pretty good. NC State’s going to be good, at Boston college, not an easy game. Venables is, in my opinion, like you said, probably the best defensive coordinator we’ve seen in years and he is a great caller of the game on defense. So, unlike what we said about Lanning, I think Venables is a massive loss there. So, Clemson, way too many question marks for me, I think that Clemson certainly has potential. They always do with Dabo, but plus 1,100, not even close to enough.
Gary Segars:
That’s exactly how I feel. Parker. DJ, I don’t know what happened this year. I don’t know if it was offensive philosophy, or what I believe it was was the offensive line, and Robbie Caldwell, the offensive line coach, I believe has retired or is just no longer going to be the offensive line coach. I believe I read that, you can correct me if I’m wrong on there, but maybe if you get the offensive line sorted out and he’s got a little more time then, okay, but they start out with Georgia Tech. I think that you can find a way to get through that one, maybe get a little bit of confidence heading into the rest of the schedule, but this ain’t as easy a schedule as maybe we once thought it would be
Parker Fleming:
No. And Spencer Petras had more total EPA than DJ last year. I don’t need to say anything else. They’ve got to do something. Whether that’s scheme, whether that’s offensive line, whether that’s him and not being good, they’ve got to figure it out. One bright spot was, Will Shipley and the way he ran the ball, he led the team in with 7.8 total EPA rushing on the season. He had won a really good game against Wake and that kind of floated, they looked like they got stronger down the season. A lot of that was just he had a really good game against Wake. And so you can make an argument that some of these rushing defenses next year are actually really, really bad. And if you look at, eight ACC defenses were 60th or worse in the rush this season.
Parker Fleming:
And so maybe they’ll run a little bit more, maybe they’ll try and play man ball a little bit more. They were already in the 70s in early downs rush rates, so I don’t know how much that’s going to change. They lose both coordinators. They go to Notre Dame and then they play a super weak ACC schedule. I don’t think there’s any value here. It is funny, and should be [inaudible 00:49:12], okay, think in your mind, think of a word that describes Clemson’s season last year, mine is underwhelming, right? If not pretty bad.
Gary Segars:
Yes.
Parker Fleming:
They won 10 games. That’s hilarious to me. That’s how bad the ACC is and how far ahead they are of everyone else. Clemson had what they would consider an awful season, they went 10 and three and they beat a power five team in a ball game. So, I think they’ll be back in the conversation. I think they’ll be better than the perception, especially because their schedule aligns for them to maybe not lose so early on and get discounted so early on. But, man, that offense stinks. I’m not putting any money on that.
Gary Segars:
Agreed. We’ll hit on Texas A and M and then I’m going to I’m going to fly through several of these. A and M is plus 2,800, their schedule, pretty ridiculous. They’ve got five guys coming back on offense, five back on defense, one on special teams. The question of course, going into the season, who is going to be the quarterback? Is it Haynes King? Is it the incoming freshman? Do you trust DJ Durkin as much as you did Mike Elko? Of course their defensive coordinator, who did an absolute just knockout job as the DC there, he’s the new head coach at Duke.
Gary Segars:
So, obviously he’s gone. I think he took a few guys with him. There’s other guys that have left, team talent, the number eight, they have the number one recruiting class coming in. But, man, you look at the schedule. You start out kind of early with App State. You play Miami with Mario Cristobal now, you play at Mississippi State, at Alabama, Ole Miss, Florida, at Auburn and LSU. That is brutal for a first time starting quarterback, whether it’s Max Johnson or whoever, they got the transfer from LSU. Plus 2,800 you would think is fairly good value. But with the new defensive coordinator coming in, I don’t know about this one. Kyle, let’s start with you on this. How do you feel about the [inaudible 00:51:08]?
Kyle Hunter:
Who’s going to be quarterback is a big question. I don’t really know that Max Johnson’s good enough for them to be a title contender with him either. Haynes King I think has potential. We’ll see if he’s healthy. Expectations are always really high at Texas A and M and they kind of underwhelmed this past season. I know they had injury issues, but high ceiling, Elko is a guy that I thought was tremendous, top three or four defensive coordinator in the country. Really hard, you say can Durkin match that? I would doubt it. It surprised me quite a bit. Plus 2,800, a high ceiling team with a lot of question marks, maybe a small flyer, but I could see them being disappointing as well. So, not a team that I feel really confidently about for next season.
Gary Segars:
Let’s hit on, hey, Parker, give me your idea on here. A and M, defense, obviously [crosstalk 00:52:01].
Parker Fleming:
I’m more interested in A and M over eight and a half wins than I am an A and M national championship.
Gary Segars:
I can buy that. Couple of first time head coaches here, let’s hit on Oregon, plus 2,800, or Oklahoma plus 2,800. Both of them completely redoing staffs, both of them top 10 in talent. Oregon’s recruiting class just hit the bricks as soon as Mario Cristobal left, they are number 47 currently with transfers, et cetera. Bo Nix will be, we presume, the starting quarterback. Although they’ve already got somebody in there. They do lose Anthony Brown. The schedule’s tough man. They play Georgia in Atlanta in the first week, you got BYU coming to Eugene, UCLA, Washington, Utah, all at home. And then they play at Oregon State.
Gary Segars:
Eight back on offense, seven on defense, just a first time head coach coming in there. I don’t see the value on that one. Kyle, Parker, either one, do y’all see anything, any kind of value with Oregon?
Parker Fleming:
I don’t trust Oregon to go a full PAC 12 season undefeated. And they have Georgia and BYU in the non-con, which are both super losable games. So, I just don’t trust them to make it down the stretch. I think also there’s something in the water with quarterbacks there. Justin Herbert didn’t play well his first year there, and then they’ve had five star Ty Thompson, but they can’t get him in the offense for whatever reason. So, I don’t know. I think they’ve got a lot of issues to figure out and iron out. I don’t trust them, the way they got manhandled by Utah twice last year, I don’t trust this team to withstand an entire season undefeated, which they’re going to have to do, being in the PAC 12.
Gary Segars:
Most certainly. Kyle, you feel about the same on that?
Kyle Hunter:
Yeah. These odds are not nearly good enough for me to take Oregon here. Georgia in the first game. Really interesting matchup. What a first game there. Oregon, I don’t think they can run the table. The PAC 12’s not very good. You can’t afford to lose games, not interested in this one.
Gary Segars:
Oklahoma, plus 2,800, Brent Venables, the former Clemson defensive coordinator and the former Sooners defensive coordinator. He comes in, they are number six in team talent, which is why the odds are so short on this. Jeff Levy, the new OC, brings in his former quarterback, Dylan Gabriel, who was at UCF. Schedule looks reasonable, at Nebraska is the tough non-con. Then you got Kansas State at home, Texas, of course always in Dallas, you play at TCU, that one could get a little tricky with Sonny Dykes. At Iowa State on a Thursday, Baylor at home and then Oklahoma State at home. Maybe you find a way, a first time head coach bringing in a new offensive coordinator, all this kind of stuff, a transfer quarterback, we’ve seen crazier things. But these first year head coaches, I’m not high on these. Kyle, you feel this same on the value?
Kyle Hunter:
I like this one better than Oregon at plus 2,800 for the same price. Their schedule is not terrible looking. I think they have a good coaching staff, certainly high ceiling here. I’m curious to get Parker’s take. He knows the big 12 really well on this one. Yeah, I don’t think this is a terrible bet, but I’m not running to bet it either. I think Oklahoma, Dylan Gabriel, could be a nice fit. Levy’s a good coach, obviously Venables is a great defensive mind. I think what Gary’s alluding to, you’d rather have Venables in his second or third year to win the championship than you would in the first year, but I’ve seen stranger things happen than Oklahoma having a great season.
Gary Segars:
Yes. Parker, what do you think?
Parker Fleming:
Yeah. One thing to look for just from the football standpoint is Levy reunited with Dylan Gabriel is a really nice system fit. And one of Oklahoma’s big deals last year was their quarterback processing was not where it needed to be. And they left so many yards on the table. You could pull your hair out watching Oklahoma’s film, maybe that match of Dylan Gabriel as the system quarterback, Jeff Levy has a good system. Maybe that raises their ceiling a little bit. I think their past defense with 127th in EPA per pass last year, can’t be worse, but a lot of good defensive minds. So, I don’t know if the system quarterback is as threatening in the big 12 as it would’ve been a couple years ago. So, value here for me, I don’t think there’s a lot of value here.
Gary Segars:
I figured this would’ve been plus 5,000 somewhere. I really thought that it would be way up there, but, alas, it was not. We’ll move on. Let’s hit Michigan. And then we’re just going to kind of have a free for all for the last 10 minutes or so talking about the rest of these teams.
Gary Segars:
Michigan is plus 2,800, six back on offense, five back on defense. They don’t return any special team starters. They’ve got at Iowa, Penn State, Nebraska, at Michigan State, at Ohio State. The schedule is not exactly super daunting. They were able to get through a lot of those games this year. Maybe they can do it again next year. Looking at the starters that are leaving, Hutchison gone, Ojabo has gone, the running back, Haskins, gone, linebacker, Ross, gone.
Gary Segars:
They lose a bunch of dudes. They are bringing in a pretty good recruiting class team, talent wise, they were number 15 overall this year, they brought in the number nine overall recruiting class thus far. You got both of your quarterbacks back. I guess the biggest question here is does Jim Harbaugh return? Because obviously there’s a lot of NFL smoke going on there. Parker, let’s start off with you on this one. The team talent was not overwhelming just this past year. I don’t know how to feel about Michigan. I didn’t think they would get there this year.
Parker Fleming:
No, they played, they played bully ball against some teams that were just bad, just not well equipped to do that. And there were rumors about that game against Ohio State. All that to say, this was basically the year for Michigan. This was the peak, and whether Harbaugh leaves or not-
Gary Segars:
Like Georgia.
Parker Fleming:
Yeah. But I think they’re in different positions going forward, especially given the [inaudible 00:58:21] and who they have to play every year. But yeah, I just don’t know, again, this is similar to Georgia for me in that they’re losing a lot of defense and they were run heavy on offense and their passing ceiling on offense was pretty okay. I think they were top 30 in passing EPA, but it was all yards after the catch. It was all just big explosive flute plays, missed tackles and all that. That’s not sustainable year to year, especially in the run game. We’ve talked about Hassan Haskins and his yards after contact here all season. I don’t know that missed tackles as an offensive strategy is something that you can do year to year.
Gary Segars:
Kyle, I have a feeling that you feel the same way, right?
Kyle Hunter:
I do feel the same way. I think that Michigan had a great year this year. They surprised everybody. Harbaugh deserves a lot of credit for how good they did, but honestly, at Iowa, at Michigan State, at Ohio State, it would surprise me a lot if this team made their way back to the playoffs. Some big losses from this year, Ronnie Bell probably comes back, which that was a big injury to them. He hurt quite a bit, not being out there. So, that’s a positive, but even with Harbaugh and the question marks, I just don’t see any reason for locking up money on Michigan.
Gary Segars:
Totally makes sense. Let’s move to the next round of the teams that might have the best chance to win a national championship. And we’re not going to hit on each one of these individually, but we’ll just take them piece by piece here, Florida, Miami, Notre Dame, all plus 5,000, Penn State, USC, plus 6,000, Wisconsin and Texas, and now as of right now, Utah has moved into plus 6,600. Gentlemen. I will open the floor. Is there any one of these that interests you more than any other one? Say, maybe Notre Dame at plus 5,000 with new head coach Marcus Freeman, maybe give me some thoughts here. Parker, you got an idea on one?
Parker Fleming:
Yeah. The only one I would even take a flyer on here is Texas at 660. That’s a lot, and they could lose to Alabama and still make the playoff. If they can keep that close, I do think that down the stretch, they could have a good enough resume in the big 12. They should have the best quarterback in the big 12 next year with Quinn Ewers. Their defense, they’re making upgrades along the offensive line, turning over the roster. This will be a structural transformation year for Steve Sarkisian, but four one score losses last year, I think.
Parker Fleming:
And just a lot that went wrong with… Casey Thompson as quarterback and Christian Jones as your tackle. They could immediately upgrade just flipping those two positions over, not to mention they’re bringing in the Saban-esque army of analysts and gurus to come fix things as well. So, I do think Texas is positioned long run to do well six, 660 this year. Hey, I don’t think the big 12 is very good offensively. I think that Quinn Ewers is a really good quarterback. I think they could run the table in the big 12. Keep it close against Alabama. Boom. You’re in the national championship or you’re in the playoff. That’s worth a flyer for 660 I think.
Gary Segars:
Yeah. Their team talent is number 11 overall last season, number five recruiting class thus far. And who knows? There’s still so many guys left in the transfer portal. They’re doing a complete roster culture turnover in Austin. You never know, that certainly would make sense. They do have UTSA the week after they play Alabama. So, a little tricky with Jeff Taylor coming in there. Kyle, let me get your thoughts on this one. Penn State at plus 6,000. Okay. They got Sean Clifford back. They couldn’t figure out how to run the ball last year. They definitely need to grade the offensive line. I think they did that a little bit with the recruiting class, but you also need to do that maybe in the transfer portal, get some upperclassmen in there, some guys that have been around the block a little bit, you look at the schedule.
Gary Segars:
It’s not crazy. They’ve got at Auburn early. That is the big non-con game, but I don’t know that Auburn necessarily scares a lot of teams the way that they used to. It’s not a super intimidating thing. They play at Michigan, which we saw this year, you can get Michigan. Minnesota, Ohio, State, Michigan State, those three are at home. And obviously Ohio State’s the tough one there. Who’s to say that they can’t figure this thing out? And plus 6,000, you get through the big 10 with just one loss, you’re in the playoff, much the same way we saw Michigan do it this year. We’ll see, Manny Diaz, obviously the new defense coordinator. You got a thought on this one?
Kyle Hunter:
They’ve recruited well, a lot of new faces, a lot of unknowns. I think the schedule’s fairly difficult there, Gary. It’s not undoable. They could do it, but I wouldn’t want to bet on Penn State here either. I think that the big 10 in general is pretty good. And even teams like Minnesota, PJ Fleck is doing a good job with Minnesota, their offensive lines, very strong. At Purdue is not really an easy game to start the season either. So, I think there’s too many landmines here for Penn State if it were me, just not a team that I think will be bad, but a team that I don’t think their upside is going to be quite high enough to get to that point.
Gary Segars:
When I look at these teams that are plus 5,000 and above, it’s a lot of first year head coaches. And we already talked about a few with Oregon and Oklahoma, but now you’ve got Florida at plus 5,000, obviously the reason why their odds are where they are is because of team talent. Florida’s team talent was number seven last year, Miami’s was number 13, but they bring in Mario Cristobal, Billy Napier of course going into Florida, Notre Dame was number 12 overall team talent. They bring in Marcus Freeman. USC plus 6,000. Well, they’ve got number 10 overall team talent.
Gary Segars:
Now they’re bringing in Lincoln Riley, possibly Caleb Williams at quarterback because both of their quarterbacks have entered the transfer portal, Jaxson Dart and Kedon Slovis, who has gone over to Pitt. I don’t see a lot of value. Really, when was the last time we had this many big time brand names with that much talent swapping spots? I don’t think it’s impossible for a first year coach to come in and win a championship right off the bat. But, man, it’s really difficult to be able to set a culture well enough and get exactly what you want out of a roster to win a championship. That is really tough to do. Kyle, is there anybody else on this board that kind of makes sense as a long shot for you?
Kyle Hunter:
Well, I would’ve liked Notre Dame if they didn’t have such a tough schedule. I do think Freeman’s a good hire. Brandon Joseph, really nice pickup in the secondary. And I think they could be a good team ATS next year, Notre Dame, but plus 5,000, probably difficult with their schedule. I guess they’re not technically on our board that we have up there now, but Utah plus 6,600 is probably my favorite one of the ones in those odds.
Kyle Hunter:
Utah had a difficult season this year with everything that happened, Winningham is a great coach, a really, really good coach. And some Ohio State fans can point out things like CJ Stroud out at almost 600 yards, but we have to cut them some slack. They had a running back playing cornerback. You just don’t switch from playing running back to playing cornerback against Ohio State’s wide receivers and it work out well. The fact that they played so well in that game and were ahead for most of the game, Winningham is a great coach. I trust him a lot. I think 6,600’s a good price there. So, that’s definitely my favorite one in that price range
Gary Segars:
Utah’s schedule, they open up at Florida, but they’ve got San Diego State at home this time. They play at Arizona State. They’ve got at Oregon State coming in, at UCLA. They play USC at home. They go to Pullman. You got Arizona and Stanford. And then at Oregon, at Colorado to close out. It’s not unbelievable. It’s not a ridiculous schedule. That’s certainly something, especially if you were going to catch Florida, this would be the time to do it. Billy Napier’s first game. It’s tough to go down to Gainesville and win. But, yeah, I could totally see that. Parker. Is there anybody else aside from Texas at plus 6,600, Wisconsin plus 6,600, does that interest anybody? I don’t think they’ve got the talent to get there.
Parker Fleming:
And they have to play Ohio State. So, sorry.
Gary Segars:
Yeah, no, you got that right. Tennessee is plus 8,000, Oklahoma State plus 8,000, Baylor plus 8,000. Then you get to Kentucky plus 9,000.
Parker Fleming:
That’s the one I was going to point out is Baylor at 8,000. I haven’t been kidnapped. Nobody’s forcing me to say this, as a TCU alum, I hate this, but they’re going to be ranked high enough at the beginning of the season, given their performance this year and given how popular Dave Miranda is, they’re going to get BYU, Texas State, and [SCS 01:07:29] team early on.
Parker Fleming:
So, their ranking is going to only get higher. I honestly think that they’ll be high enough early on that they could get in with one loss. They’re returning a bunch of their offensive linemen. They’re returning two quarterbacks that I think will compete for the job. Defensive turnover is a little bit worrisome, but some of their stars they’ll have that are disruptive upfront. And Grimes gets a full off season to work on that offense. So, I think just given that how high of a note they finished the season this year, they’ll be ranked high enough that at 8,000, it’s a boring pick, but I do think that they could feasibly be a team to watch there.
Gary Segars:
There are other ones as well, Kyle, these plus 10,000 ones, you got North Carolina, Arkansas, Michigan State, LSU, and Auburn. LSU is number five in overall team talent. They bring in Brian Kelly, can Brian Kelly get the culture fixed enough, bring in enough guys, whether through transfer or whatever else, can maybe LSU be worth something at plus 10,000?
Kyle Hunter:
I think LSU at 10,000 is a lot better bet than Florida at plus 5,000 or Miami at plus 5,000 or something like that. I think some of those are too short of a price. LSU, I feel like there’s plenty of unknown, but at plus 10,000, that’s okay. You’re just taking a small flyer on something that has a chance to be something pretty special. LSU, I don’t mind. Gary, can I go ahead and say one more long shot here real quick?
Gary Segars:
Yes.
Kyle Hunter:
I got one that’s just way off the radar. I had to go pretty far down the list. NC State plus 20,000. NC State, think about the way their season ended this year. They didn’t get to play in their Bowl game and it was questionable how that went obviously.
Kyle Hunter:
And then they have a lot of the top players coming back. They have a really good defense for sure. Peyton Wilson, Derrick Pitts, NC State to me is a potential top 15 or 20 team. And they’re plus 20,000. I’m not saying I think NC State’s going to win the national championship. Don’t take me wrong. But, and this is something we can talk about in future shows too, when you take something like plus 20,000, if that team happens to be the fourth team and make the playoff, they don’t have to win it for you to make a lot of money. So, you can get out of that at a really nice profit. So, I’ve seen far worse bets than NC State plus 20,000.
Gary Segars:
That’s not terrible. They’ve got eight starters expected back on offense, 10 back on defense, Devin Leary coming back a third year with the offensive coordinator, Tim Beck. They weren’t super efficient on offense this year, correct me if I’m wrong, Parker. But yeah, I could maybe see this. Parker, you got a thought on NC State here? I’m going to pull up the schedule here in just a second.
Parker Fleming:
Yeah. I’m pulling up my total EPA for quarterbacks chart. And I just hadn’t had this one flagged, so I don’t know where he is. There he is. Okay. 45th, Devin Leary, 42.5, right between Max Johnson of LSU and Anthony Brown. So, solid, maybe not as much explosive upside as you would like, but again, the ACC is really weak given there’s Clemson’s known limitations. And the fact that I think NC State has a couple good linemen coming back. That program is certainly trending in the right direction. Maybe they get a chip on their shoulder from the way the Bowl game went this year. And I think that they have a very clear and believable path to the ACC championship, which is a clear and believable path to the playoff. So, I’m definitely interested in that one, especially because, as always, Kyle is infinitely wiser than I am and the cash out is a really smart [crosstalk 01:11:18]
Gary Segars:
Yeah, hedge the bet.
Parker Fleming:
So, that’s definitely hedging it. But I like it a lot. Yeah.
Gary Segars:
So, their schedule right now, at east Carolina, Charleston Southern, Texas Tech, Yukon. So, I would imagine four and 0 if they can get through Mike Houston and the Pirates. After that, at Clemson, then you play at Louisville right after, well, these don’t have dates, nevermind. At Clemson, at Louisville, Boston College, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, at North Carolina, and at Syracuse. Yeah. It’s doable. You come back with an upperclassmen quarterback, you’ve got both of your coordinators back, everything looks all right for Dave Dorn and that bunch. That’s not a terrible bet, Kyle. Very good value there. Not too shabby. Anybody like Auburn at plus 10,000?
Parker Fleming:
No.
Kyle Hunter:
No.
Gary Segars:
North Carolina plus 10,000 isn’t awful, I don’t think.
Parker Fleming:
If Zach Calzada is your answer, whatever question you’re asking is wrong.
Gary Segars:
You’re probably not wrong about that. All right, gentlemen, are there any more on the table before we wrap this up?
Parker Fleming:
I think I’m good.
Kyle Hunter:
No, I’m good.
Gary Segars:
All right. I feel the same way. Obviously I think the, the two best bets, probably ‘Bama at plus 250 might be a little short and then Ohio State plus 750 for me. But these are not official as of yet. So, don’t worry. We’ve got a long, long post-season slash pre-season to go. Let’s go ahead and wrap this thing up. You guys have been fantastic. All the guys that have jumped into the chat, you have made this highly entertaining, and we certainly appreciate it. Let me go ahead and remind everybody, go and sign up at betus.com. That is your spot to gamble on all of these odds. Go ahead and check it out. BetUS, it is where the game begins. And of course, right now, make sure that you like the video, that you subscribe to the channel, hit that notification bell.
Gary Segars:
We’re going to be with you every Wednesday from here on, from what I understand, if anything changes, obviously that notification bell, we’ll let you know when we go live. So, you can go ahead and do that. Follow us on Twitter, all that good stuff. Gentlemen, this has been a lot of fun. I love doing shows like this. We’ll recap the season a little more as we go along in January, we’ve got signing day in February, we’ve got spring football coming in March, all kinds of things to discuss with the transfer portal, et cetera. Stay right here. Stay right here with us on this channel. Jump into the comments. We would love to hear it. For BetUS, we will see you all again next Wednesday.
