Gary Segars:

Two short decades later and the whole thing has just changed. It’s a lot of fun to watch, a lot of fun to see. On the right side of the screen, of course, Kyle Hunter, the award-winning professional handicapper. One of our most valued analysts. He does a little bit of everything here at BetUS. But Kyle, you are @KyleHunterPicks on Twitter. How are you feeling about tonight’s National Championship game?

Kyle Hunter:

I’m looking forward to it. I don’t have to stress about the game too much. I do wish I had to stress about the game, that the Buckeyes were in it, but I don’t, and I think Parker will probably get more nervous while the game’s actually going on would be my guess. But I’m looking forward to the game. I hope it’s a good game, close game. We’ve had a real fun season here and I think it’s been a pretty fun bowl season as well, so hopefully we can get one more good game out of this.

Gary Segars:

Yeah, it’s not been too bad. This has been a really interesting, unconventional season as far as the results that we have gotten. I mean the fact that of course TCU is playing for a national championship, that’s something else. We did not expect that when we walked into this season. Let’s go ahead and remind everybody, of course, about what you need to do. And that is subscribe to this channel. That would certainly help us out. Make sure and like this video if you would so kindly. I see a lot of guys in the chat already. Quadropheniac. I see Kendrick, I see Donald, I see Patrick, I see Sophie. You guys are awesome. You guys are what makes the show go. So we certainly appreciate you for being here for sure at this last game of the college football season. The 2022 season. It feels like it has flown by. Just absolutely flown by. But yes, subscribe if you’ve not already done so, like this video, hit that notification bell.

It’s going to let you know when we go live. And considering we don’t really know what the schedule will be going forward right now, that notification bell is going to be incredibly important so that you can keep up with us. You can also follow us on Twitter as well. All that stuff is in the description below, so go ahead and check that out. If you cannot follow the show live, you can also listen to the podcast. That is the BetUs Football Show. You can get that anywhere that you get your podcasts. Apple, Spotify, et cetera. But that is also the NFL feed as well and now that they’re moving into the NFL playoffs, it would be wise to make sure that you are subscribed not only to their channel but also to that podcast as well. So make sure you’re subscribed everywhere you need to be subscribed, share the show out, tell your friends about it, of course.

Gentlemen, let’s go ahead and recap what we have done thus far this season as far as our picks are concerned. And looking at overall records, I am sitting at 57-39-3. Kyle is sitting 34-31-1. Parker, 46-48-1. That puts us at an overall record of 137-118-5. That is 53.73% and that my friends is profitable. But that is not the only thing that we have been good at so far this year. I do have the numbers pulled up. Let’s do a little bit of a recap before we jump into the game. Let’s do just a touch of a recap on what we’ve done as far as our futures. We never went back to do it. I don’t know that we’re going to do a full recap show, but I think now is a good time for us to at least talk about what we did in the pre-season to give you guys a little bit of an idea of what we do early before the games actually begin. Kyle, you did really, really well as far as your futures. You were 5-3 in your future picks, but my goodness, you had some big ones with Toledo winning the MAC and you and I both had Troy winning the Sunbelt West. Both of those were +375. Not too bad. Kyle, how’d you feel about your preseason?

Kyle Hunter:

Yeah, really good. Actually, long term those have been what I’ve done best on is those season win totals and futures. I think it’s a good opportunity for bettors. So definitely stay tuned as we look toward next year for those once again.

Gary Segars:

Oh, most certainly. I had, along with that Troy Sunbelt West division title that was +375, I also had Utah winning the Pac 12. That was +225, so not too bad. Overall we did pretty well. Parker, you had the biggest win of the futures bets. You took Kansas State to win the Big 12 at +1000. How did you foresee this, my friend?

Parker Fleming:

I’m interested to see what Kansas State’s line is for 2023 because last year I think I took them over five and a half wins and this year I took them over six and a half wins and heck, right now in 2023 I’ll probably take them at over seven and a half wins if the trend keeps going. But I think Kansas State was a dark horse. They brought in the quarterback and I think their experience was really, really underrated in terms of how their development cycle was coming together and in total fairness, I mean I did not project him to win like they did with Will Howard. I thought Adrian Martinez was going to be a big part of that team, so I definitely made that pick based on something differently than happened, but money is in my pocket all the same, so that’s kind of nice. And I’m even okay with two … I took two pretty big Ls on USC and North Carolina both going under and I feel okay with projecting both of those going under. With those teams’ one score records and how awful their defenses were, it was like, man, I can’t look at I and be like, I would’ve taken those differently just based on what we knew at the time.

So that big Kansas State win definitely padded over a couple of those losses and the voided Virginia bet that would’ve cashed. So I’m glad to have that one in my pocket for sure.

Gary Segars:

You have certainly, certainly got that right. Gentlemen, let’s talk about the game. Let’s discuss tonight’s ballgame, TCU and Georgia. Georgia currently a 12 and a half point favorite, the total sitting right now at 64. Of course these latest numbers at BetUS. This one’s at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California. It’s 7:30 PM Eastern time on ESPN. And gentlemen, there’s going to be rain in the forecast. This thing is covered so it shouldn’t necessarily matter. But a little strange to be leaving Georgia and Fort Worth and headed over to LA and then get stuck in what I believe they’re calling an atmospheric river out there. I mean it’s just crazy, crazy stuff that’s happening as far as LA weather is concerned. But we got a lot of props that we need to go over. We got some things to discuss in this game. Parker, I’m going to let you lead us off here.

First off, the wager counts. Let’s give out some numbers as far as the handle, everything else that’s going on over at BetUS. 69% of the spread bets as far as the ticket count is concerned are on TCU. As far as the money is concerned, on the spread side there’s 54% of the money on TCU. So a little bit of difference there. As far as the money line, it’s about 80% both tickets and money on TCU. As far as the total, the over, 69% of the tickets for the totals are going over. 63% of the money is going over. So do what you will. It shouldn’t necessarily impact your handicap per se, but if you like to know those kind of things, that’s what they are. Parker, there’s no real way that we’re going to organize this show. We’ve all got some different props that we want to try and hit on. Which direction would you like to lead us in? Where would you like to start today?

Parker Fleming:

Let’s start with the most important player on the field, Gary. Let’s start with Max Duggan. I think this is the one I’ve thought the most about and I definitely snagged some at different lines and I think the lines are different today and that’s maybe changed my strategy if I was going to place additional bets today. So the first thing that I scooped up, and I think you and I were texting about this on Thursday, was Max Duggan over on rushing yards. And I believe when we snagged it, it was like 28 and a half I think.

Gary Segars:

It was.

Parker Fleming:

And it’s now sitting at 31 and a half rushing yards, -140. That makes that much less attractive for me, losing a little bit of edge there and that line being so thin, but I certainly don’t want to bet on him under. I think the big reason to bet on a Max Duggan over here is that TCU’s offense is going to struggle at times tonight. It’s just inevitable. They’ve done it in every game. And I think that Max Duggan this season has run the ball less than he has historically. He’s been healthier than he has historically. His time to throw in the pocket has been longer historically than it has. He’s really tried to do that, “Can I go through my progressions? Can I get the ball down field?” As midnight nears, proverbially, and as the offense needs to get more going on, we saw for instance that last drive of that Kansas State game, he had 95 rushing yards on one drive. Max Duggan is absolutely going to run the ball as much as he can. He had 63 rushing yards against Michigan, 118 against Kansas. You think about the Baylor game where they needed a lot of help, he had 47. And so I think that his over is a good bet there even if the number has gotten a little less attractive as well.

A number I like that might be an alternate way to get at that is over one and a half rushing touchdowns for Max Duggan and is currently at +130. I like that a whole lot. He had two against Michigan, one against Kansas State and one against Baylor there. Again, those games where they need that to happen. Especially as Georgia is going to have some interior defensive linemen that are really, really going to disrupt TCU’s run game, especially if Kendre Miller doesn’t play, watch them get that designed QB run going a lot more. So I like Max Duggan at the over 31 and a half. If that price is a little wary some for you, I think that over one and a rushing touchdown in addition or maybe even in substituting there would be a nice way to capitalize on what we expect out of Max Duggan’s legs in this game tonight.

Gary Segars:

Now, I do have Max Duggan as an anytime touchdown scorer at -115. So you’re giving up just a little bit. Just a touch there. Over one and a half. I’m a little wary of over one and a half. If you’re wary of the 31 and a half, this is something to pay attention to as far as-

Parker Fleming:

Oh, I believe that’s over one half.

Gary Segars:

Over-

Parker Fleming:

So it’s just one. I may misspoken there.

Gary Segars:

Over one half rushing. Okay.

Parker Fleming:

Yeah. .5. Yeah.

Gary Segars:

Aha. So instead of any time touchdown, we should make it Max Duggan over one and a half. So that changes things.

Parker Fleming:

I do not believe he’ll score a rushing touchdown. I don’t think you need the extra added benefit of that today.

Gary Segars:

Let’s see, let’s see. So as far as the yardage is concerned that you were talking about, Parker, 31 and a half. It was 28 and a half last week when you and I were talking about it. That is one thing if you are an NFL fan, if this is the only game that you tune in for is college … Excuse me. As far as college football is concerned on a yearly basis. The rushing statistics are different between the NFL and college football. Sacks do count against your rushing yards. So that’s something to pay attention to as far as that 31 and a half. If Duggan were to take a sack, that could really, really hurt things, but if they do designed runs like you’re talking about Parker, I feel like he should be able to get well above that, especially when looking at what CJ Stroud was able to do.

You look at what George’s defense has given up to rushing quarterbacks, it’s not usually a lot, but this defense, they’ve kind of been on their heels a little bit for the past two games against LSU and Ohio State. I think that Sunny Dykes and Garrett Riley can do some of the same stuff. I’ve got very similar things here. The anytime touchdown, I’ll mark that off. I’ll go with the over one and a half rushing touchdowns here. Over rushing yardage, 31 and a half at -120. I still think that’s a good price there. Kyle, let’s go over to you. Let’s talk longest touchdown in this game. I think we all agree that over 47 and a half is a good buy if you got it at that, but this thing has been moving rapidly and if I’m not mistaken, at BetUS right now it’s at 50 and a half. Kyle, would you still want to play it at 50 and a half?

Kyle Hunter:

I got to think about that. I bet this yesterday over 47 and a half so it’s moved overnight and it’s actually I think -120 now on over 50 and a half. So some serious steam here on the over. I definitely like over 47 and a half. I don’t know if this will go back down or not. Over a 50 and a half, it would be a pretty small bet for me. I guess I’d say it that way. Because you’re getting up there. You get over half the football field, you got to be taking a little bit of a second thought. I do think there are lots of ways that you could pick up a big touchdown in a game like this. The Bulldogs have given up a lot of big plays in the secondary. TCU’s going to take chances. They’re extremely explosive on offense. And Georgia has big play potential with multiple guys as well and Stetson Bennett throws a pretty good deep ball so I still kind of like it but certainly not as much as I did at 47 and a half.

Gary Segars:

And while we’re on you Kyle, you had a little bit on Max Duggan as well. Tell me what you’re thinking as far as, I believe, first half score?

Kyle Hunter:

Yeah, I like Max Duggan first half anytime touchdown scorer. I see this one’s actually moved to the positive. +280 for a touchdown in the first half. I think when you think about -115 for the game and see +280 for the first half, I think that’s probably a good look because Duggan has run a lot more in games that have been competitive or games that they really need him to run. I think this is going to be one of those games where they really need him to run. And why wouldn’t you, if your TCU, want to make Georgia respect that run game early on? I don’t think they’ll just save all the runs for the second half. +280 is a pretty big number. He had 15 rushing attempts in each of their last two games, which were right down to the wire. I think Duggan will run it at enough times here that I’d want to take a chance on +280 in the first half.

Gary Segars:

I do like that one. I do like that a lot. So +280 Max Duggan first half scorer. That’s interesting. That is so interesting. Parker, let’s move back over to you. Let’s stay on TCU. Let’s talk about Taye Barber really quick. What do you like about Taye Barber? I’ve got a bet on Taye Barber +105, more receiving yards than Ladd McConkey. Now that has to do with McConkey’s injury, but what do you like about Taye Barber in this matchup?

Parker Fleming:

Interesting. Yeah. Sorry for the puzzled look. I was thinking, I was like, “Wait. Isn’t Ladd hurt?” And I realized that’s exactly what it is. If you look at Taye Barber, he’s been two things for TCU. One, he’s been a Max Duggan isn’t settled and he needs to find a guy in space to get some passing game going. So he’s been very reliable for a solid 12 to 15 yard target every now and then. And then at the goal line he’s been really, really versatile at just being that slipping away option. They’ve run some order return motion, they’ve run some jet sweep to him, found him in the flat and found him in the red zone as well. So I like him especially because I think that that Georgia’s M.O. in the red zone is going to be shut down Quentin Johnston, shut down the tight end, Jared Wiley.

And that’s going to give a lot of leeway for TCU to get creative and have to get the ball to Taye Barber if they’re going to get it in the end zone. So I like him as an anytime touchdown scorer for +210. I think in the passing game, his reliability, how much Duggan really trusts him and goes to him. Again, I keep talking about these last two games they’ve been the most competitive of TCU’s and he had five targets and a touchdown against Kansas State, four targets and a touchdown against Michigan. Super reliable option. One that Duggan is very comfortable with. They’ve played together for almost four years now. In the big moments, if they can’t get the ball to the first option, Taye Barber is going to be Max Duggan’s most reliable second option. I like him in the red zone plus money here. I think that him is an anytime touchdown scorer is a really solid bet.

Gary Segars:

I tend to be with you. I tend to be with you. Taye Barber I think is going to get some looks. I think QJ is going to get doubled a little bit. That seems like a good option there. Let’s see. Let’s look at a couple other things. I do have one I’m curious you guys’ opinion on. I have got Georgia wide receiver AD Mitchell -200 to have more receiving yards than TCU wide receiver Derius Davis. Now Davis had five receptions total in the last three games. That included a drop against Michigan. AD Mitchell is finally healthy. He had six targets against Ohio State, got four receptions, over 40 yards there and a touchdown. Parker, I’m going to go back to you on this. Derius Davis, I guess his receiving stuff has gone down here recently. He had a hand injury and was out against Baylor. While this is -200, I feel like those odds should be closer to -350 or so because with AD Mitchell back, Georgia is absolutely going to target him more than what Derius Davis is going to get. Do you agree with this or should I be maybe a little bit wary of it?

Parker Fleming:

No, I think this is fine. He really has come down in the passing game, especially as he’s gone up in his special teams game and how more involved he’s been there. With Taye Barber as that option and with … I think he had a lot early on as TCU installed their downfield option, you saw a lot more Taye Barber horizontal involvement in the offense. I don’t think they really feature that as much. If you look at his targets, he had a great game against Oklahoma and Oklahoma State with seven targets but he really didn’t have many yards in either of those games. Only 32 against Oklahoma, eight total against Oklahoma State. When they’ve really tried to go to him recently, it’s not been successful. One catch on five targets against Iowa State in a blowout, two catches on six targets against Kansas State, and two catches on four targets against Michigan with no touchdowns. He really has not been that much of a factor in their passing game. I’d be much more optimistic about maybe a defense or special teams bet here on a touchdown, but in terms of his rushing yards, I don’t think he’ll be involved and I think AD Mitchell is absolutely going to be involved downfield as Georgia tries to avoid playing conservatively and just get the engine going.

Gary Segars:

I tend to agree. I tend to agree. -200, while it may seem like a lot, it feels like a really, really good bet to me. Kyle, let’s go back over to you. Let’s talk about Quentin Johnston. I know that you had some things you wanted to talk to Parker about, so I’m going to get myself out of the way here and let you guys discuss about Quentin Johnston, what a better option for a bet might be.

Kyle Hunter:

Yeah. I think Quentin Johnston … What I wanted to talk about here is see what Parker’s thoughts were on over receptions versus over receiving yards. We know that they’re going to take at least some shots downfield. That’s a good way to attack the Georgia secondary. Johnston has had a lot of targets here of late. Six, seven, seven, and nine targets in the last four games. TCU’s a big underdog in this game. The expected game state would be plenty of targets here for him in a game like this. They’ll probably have to throw the ball a decent amount. I think he’s going to get plenty of targets. Certainly capable of targets near the line of scrimmage or deep balls. Kind of wondering how … Parker, you know TCU better than me. What do you think of over four and a half receptions versus over 84 and a half receiving yards?

Parker Fleming:

This one is super interesting. I love the line at four and a half just because his last couple of games have been right there on that line and it’s interesting to see what he will do. A couple things about him that would sway my decision here. One, against Kansas State, 34.3 yards per reception, against Michigan, 27.2. That’s absolutely absurd. But I want to focus on a more production based metric, which is yards per route run. How involved he is. So the two games leading up to those were Texas and Baylor. He did not play against Iowa State. Was a little bit hurt there. His yards per route run were 2.28 against Texas, 3.20 against Baylor, 3.91 against Kansas State, and then 5.82 against Michigan. For just a vague frame of reference, if you’re unfamiliar with yards per route run, Cooper Kupp’s amazing NFL season was 4.1 last year.

So anything above four is just really, really incredible. Of course, you scale that for college a little bit. But he’s super involved with how often he’s getting the ball relative to how much they’re throwing it and how productive he is when he gets the ball there. And so I’d almost bank on him getting more targets but maybe getting denied more, but when he catches it being more productive. So I’m actually leaning a little bit more towards yards on Quentin Johnston than I am catches because he does average so much. I mean, 18.0 yards perception on the entire season. And earlier in the season their offense wasn’t exactly downfield working as well. Those numbers are pretty low and bring that out. And so I think that when he catches the ball it counts for so much and the way that he’s been a little bit denied in spots against Michigan specifically and with how Georgia’s going to give him attention, I think I’d count more on the productivity of his targets relative to the number of his targets overall. So I could certainly see him hitting that five threshold for receptions, but because his receptions are so productive, I think I would lean towards the yards here.

Gary Segars:

That does make sense. By the way, Kyle, let me jump in here. That Georgia defense had not given up over 271 yards receiving or more than one receiving touchdown in any regular season game this year, but against LSU they gave up 502 yards and three touchdowns, against Ohio State, 348 and four touchdowns. And when you look at the guys that actually caught the touchdowns, the best wide receivers the last two games on the opposing team, Marvin Harrison Jr. had two receiving touchdowns, LSU’s Malik Neighbors had one touchdown. They both had tons of yards and they did it on not a ton of catches. So I think the productivity, Parker, as you were saying is probably the best bet. I was trying to look up some numbers while Parker was talking there. So that would make sense to me. And Kyle, which direction … You feel like that’s maybe the right way to go?

Kyle Hunter:

Yeah, I’m bringing it up so I can place my bet here as we’re talking. So yeah, I’m going to take the over on the receiving yards. I want to take something on Johnston. I still kind of think that the over four and a half is a good look but it’s actually even more juicy too so I can save a little bit of juice with the receiving yards instead. Yeah, over 84 and a half, -125, and over four and a half is -160. It’s gone up quite a bit. I don’t love land minus one 60 so I appreciate that he said the receiving yards so I can get that one in. Parker, does that mean that you do also … Maybe I’m jumping in line. This is a different show here. We’re doing this a little bit different but over longest reception, you also like that as well?

Parker Fleming:

Yes. What is the number that? I saw the longest touchdown had gone up. What number do you have for longest reception?

Kyle Hunter:

Johnston’s longest-

Gary Segars:

33 and a half right now.

Kyle Hunter:

Yeah. 33 and a half.

Parker Fleming:

33 and a half. Okay. Let’s see. Okay, I pulled this up because I think you mentioned this beforehand. Quentin Johnston would’ve hit the over on that in … Let’s just count so I get this number exactly. Looking, it is long. One, two, three, four, five, six, seven of his last eight games. So yeah, I think if he catches the ball it’s going to be a big play. He normally gets downfield and can get by some guys. I think, again, the productivity there. That’s going to hit and over 84 is going to hit or neither of them are going to hit, but I think that his productivity with his targets is so high, I think the over there is a good bet.

Gary Segars:

I tend to agree. I tend to. Kyle, how about you? You’re thinking over the 33 and a half?

Kyle Hunter:

I do. I think I probably will put a little bit more on the receiving yards and a little bit less on the longest reception. I’m always a little bit shy about when it has to be one long play versus the possibility of multiple 25 yards or something. But yeah, I think they’re fairly correlated in that sense.

Gary Segars:

We do have a few questions coming into the chat and as you guys know, if you have been watching for quite a while, let me go ahead and tell everybody any questions that you have, we are going to hit those in a Q&A segment at the end of the show, which is not going to take forever here. This is a little bit shorter show than usual considering we’re only covering one game and we’re talking about the prop bets of that. But yes, any questions that you have, toss them in there. I saw one from Quadropheniac. I’ve seen several others in there and we are going to hit quite a few of those. So you guys are awesome. Thank you for tossing those in there.

I do have one that I want to toss out to you guys and see what your thoughts are. I am going to take Stetson Bennett over one half interceptions at -110. And I believe that’s still at -110. I’ll have to double-check because these things are moving rapidly. Georgia has played two teams this year that run defenses similar to Joe Gillespie’s. That spill and kill is a different kind of deal. Mississippi State also runs at 3-3-5. Kent State runs a 3-3-3 stack that’s similar. They put their corners out on islands, et cetera. They do some things schematically the same. But there’s no defense that is exactly like what Joe Gillespie is doing and TCU does have quite a bit of speed here. Stetson has eight total interceptions on the year.

Against those two teams, Mississippi State and Kent State, Stetson had three combined interceptions in those games. Now if you go back and look at what the interceptions were, one of them was a batted down pass at the line of scrimmage that was actually caught. Several others that he’s thrown this year were just one-on-one competition where he thought that he could throw past the corner. I think in this situation he can get a little bit confused against what TCU is trying to show, especially pre snap. I am going to go with Stetson to throw one interception in this game and that’s -110. It’s very even odds as far as this is concerned. Kyle, I’ll start with you. What are your thoughts on this one?

Kyle Hunter:

Yeah, I do like it. And people say, well those batted down ones, you never know what’ll happen, but Stetson is 5’11”. He has had a lot of batted down balls throughout the course of the season, so I think that’s certainly possible in a game like this. TCU’s pretty aggressive and the secondary and I would think they would take some chances. Stetson had some questionable decisions their last game against Ohio State. The one was picked off. He had two turnover worthy plays. I think he’s certainly capable of throwing a pick in a game like this. I guess the only concern I would have is if they get ahead and he doesn’t throw as many passes, but I think he’ll throw enough passes that you got a good chance at those odds.

Gary Segars:

I think that’s the biggest thing for me. I think that Georgia is going to throw the football in this game. There’s a lot of guys in the chat that have been jumping in talking about Georgia is just going to run right over them because of that 3-3-5. That’s not the case. That’s not how this defense works. Parker, what are your thoughts on this? You feel like maybe Stetson, one interception? I don’t think it’s necessarily going to cost Georgia the game, but he’s shown this propensity to do this against Alabama last year, against Ohio State in the last game in pressure situations, especially against confusing defenses. This seems to happen not often per se, but often enough to where I would feel comfortable laying 110 to go over a half interception. Parker, what are your thoughts?

Parker Fleming:

Yeah, I like this a lot but more so because of TCU’s defense and less so because of Bennett in particular. I think if you look at the turnover plays which try to account for some of that randomness, he only had one against Mississippi State and one against Kent State and both of those turned into interceptions. So that makes me wary a little bit but I think it’s fair to say that that defense, especially that higher shell, does provide a little bit of confusion. One, I put a link in the chat. I know I was trying to answer a couple questions there just about TCU’s defense. It’s not just they put fewer guys up front. That’s a very 2005 way to look at football. I put a link in there. Read it before the game tonight and understand what Joe Gillespie’s trying to do on defense because it makes the game better if you understand what’s going on there.

Two, Bud Clark. On our podcast, on Purple theory, we talk about Bud Clark Island and how the real estate prices are going so high. He is a great safety for TCU. He has five interceptions, four pass breakups. He’s a ball hawk. He absolutely stole an interception away from JJ McCarthy, baited him into a throw, has that vision downfield and is super athletic to play that stereotypical, cliche centerfielder role. So I like him to be really trying to force a big play and I think that will help. TCU might get burned on that as well, but I do like over interceptions there just because between him and Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson and Josh Newton, TCU has three guys who can really go after the ball. That’s 11 interceptions between the three of them and 22 additional pass breakups between those guys. There’s going to be a lot of contact on the ball. There’s going to be a lot of passes defensed. That’s going to lead towards more higher probability of Stetson Bennett interception, which may not be decisive.

Gary Segars:

No. So let’s stay on the Georgia offense. We haven’t talked a whole lot about what Georgia is going to try and do because I believe … Guys, I’m not going to lie, I have seen this game go a multitude of different ways in my head. The more time you’ve got to think about a matchup like this, I guess you can find different reasons to back certain things. But when it comes to this Georgia offense, it appears to be a different guy almost all the time. Brock Bowers is the most well known, but as far as that running back room, who knows who is going to be the leading rusher. I mean … Excuse me. Da da da. I’ve got it right here. Kendall Milton had quite a few. Kenny McIntosh I believe only had five rushes against Ohio State. Now, had 70 yards, but he only got five touches on that one.

Some of these were just you don’t know what you’re going to get week in and week out because it is a full team effort here. Are there any that maybe we should be looking at as far as Georgia offense is concerned? I think that Georgia is going to have to really be aggressive on offense in this game or at least I would assume they would be. So maybe some of these Stetson overs, something like that. But Kyle, let me bring you in. What are some thoughts on some of these other things for the Georgia offense?

Kyle Hunter:

I’ve considered Kenny McIntosh over receiving yards. He’s a pretty good pass catcher out of the back field. I think he could get some targets that way. It’s tough to know who’s going to run, like you said, for Georgia. I don’t know that I want to try to predict that. Bennett will probably try a decent amount of passes. I still think Bowers could be a pretty big part of the offense. He really wasn’t a huge part of the offense against Ohio State. Ohio State’s been really good against tight ends in the past. They’re not very good at matching up against wide receivers. They somehow end up with a linebacker on a wide receiver pretty often, but they’ve done pretty good against tight ends. I think Bowers will be targeted plenty of times here, so I don’t mind over receiving yards, but I see it’s gone from 61 and a half up to 65 and a half. So somebody else is thinking the same way. McIntosh receiving yards I think is a good look to the over. Also Ladd McConkey unders, maybe. I mean he’s definitely not himself right now. We saw what he was in the Ohio State game. The couple throws to him were right at the line of scrimmage. I would think that AD Mitchell takes away from Ladd McConkey a bit here.

Gary Segars:

I think AD’s going to take that. We did have somebody in the chat jump in and they were 100% right. Arian Smith is … I don’t know that there’s not anybody on TCU that can match up with him as far as speed is concerned, but he is certainly a weapon. And Georgia now has plenty of weapons. I think that the offense is going to change considerably, considering Darnell Washington, it appears is … If he does play, he’s not going to be 100%. So it’s a whole different deal. If he doesn’t play at all, that really changes what Georgia does on offense. The other tight ends that they have in that room are not nearly the size of Washington. Parker, what are your thoughts on the way that maybe Darnell Washington changes the game if he’s not in there? What are some thoughts on this one?

Parker Fleming:

Definitely some spillover effects from what they’re going to be able to do out of personnel groupings and having him and Bowers on the field and what they’re blocking can do. And so I think that him being out definitely changes maybe the positioning of where they can put Bowers per se. I was just looking up … TCU against tight ends has not really gotten consistently blown up this season, but they’ve given up a long play. Like Mason Fairchild for Kansas, 48 yard play. Ben Sinat had a over 30 yard touchdown for Kansas State as well. That’s kind of that third option. If a quarterback can stay cool and process and get to that next option, they can hit that downfield threat. So I wonder about Bowers’ positioning and whether he’s going to be able to hit one of those seam passes.

I kind of like a long reception over 25 and a half for Brock Bowers. He would’ve hit that five times this season I think in games just from his longest of each game. And the way that TCU has gotten beat by tight ends is not what Texas tried to do with Ja’Tavion Sanders and go to him, go to him, go to him. It’s oh, as an option that’s gotten through the cracks, they’ve hit that big play. So a Brock Bowers big play wouldn’t surprise me at all, especially if we’re going to call a shovel pitch, shovel pass kind of a thing. A pass. There’s times where Brock Bowers gets the ball that’s very much a run, but it’s going to count for passing yards. I think he’s good for at least one big explosive play there and that’s only -115. So I’d be more interested in that than the total yardage for him.

Gary Segars:

I tend to agree. I tend to agree. Gentlemen, is there anything else that … I think this is all that we’ve hit as far as … You know what, we didn’t really talk much about the defense, special teams touchdown, right? Parker, you want to hit on that one?

Parker Fleming:

Oh. I don’t think we did. I maybe vaguely mentioned that. But I think that gets you that pick sixes, that gets you a Derius Davis punt return. I think that’s an extremely, extremely probable reality. Even if you wanted to go the other way and say, let’s say Georgia gets up by two scores, Max Duggan dropping back on third and nine is going to lead to some nonsense. I think that game state there favors you for a defensive, special teams score as well. And so if you think about your normal distribution of what’s the probability that I get at least one, you think about all the states that would add up where you would get at least one of those defensive or special team scores and that seems like a pretty good bet for me. So I think the number there is +220. Yes. And so that’s one I had on my card coming in.

Gary Segars:

I can get with it. Let’s go ahead and dive off of the … Hey Kyle, did you have another one that I have not hit on?

Kyle Hunter:

I don’t. I did play the first half for TCU plus seven and a half. I mentioned last week if it went up from seven to seven and a half I’d probably put some pizza money on it so TCU seven and a half in the first half is a bet for me. A small one. I think they have the coordinators and a game prep that I think they can stay around at least for a while. So I think getting over a touchdown in the first half is probably a good look.

Gary Segars:

I like it. Let’s go ahead and dive into this Q&A. And we’ll give you our picks again at the end of the Q&A session here. But yeah, we’ll have I believe one official best bet that I’ve got on there. But we’ll all read off our cards once we get to the end here. But let’s go on and start this off. Let’s look through some of the questions here and tell you … Oh, first, again, do us a favor, like the video and subscribe to the channel if you’ve not already done so. Subscribe to the podcast as well, the BetUs Football Show. And tell your friends about the show. Tell your parents, tell all your football buddies, et cetera. That certainly helps us out. But yes, like the video, subscribe to the channel, hit the notification bell and that thing will let you know when we go live.

All right. Gentlemen, first question here. Robert Holt, the over 49 and a half for a touchdown. Yeah, we talked about that one. Elias. “Is TCU a trap bet today?” No. No it’s not. At this point in the season there are no trap bets. There’s so much action on this game. This is not a trap. This is not even close. Kyle, do you agree with this?

Kyle Hunter:

Yeah, I mean what if I told you there really are no trap bets? I think that’s the key to this one is people say they’re setting up a trap. You talk to any odds maker, they say there is no such thing as a trap.

Parker Fleming:

But Kyle, my uncle told me that on Tuesdays when the line moved …

Kyle Hunter:

Oh yeah, that’s true. That’s true. That’s tricky.

Gary Segars:

Yes. The trap bit idea … Look, at the end of the day, if the line looks weird to you, go and do your research. That’s it. There’s a reason why these lines are where they are. We’ll just say that. Quadropheniac. “What percentage of your bank role should one risk on futures?” Well, now this is different for everybody. I will tell you that I put a quarter of a unit on each future play for prop bets. As far as futures are concerned, like pre-season numbers. When it comes to regular season win totals, I will put a full unit on those. When it comes to the plus odds of winning a championship or winning a division or something along those lines, typically I’m about half a unit on those. Kyle, I think it’s different for everybody, but which way do you typically go with those?

Kyle Hunter:

Yeah. I keep a separate bankroll for futures and win totals versus just the individual games. I bet quite a bit on win totals. Three, four, five units, things like that. But with futures it’s always a smaller bet for me because you’re taking the big plus money price hoping to hit one of those. I’ve done well on win totals and I think it’s about reducing variance. You have 12 or 13 games versus having one game. If you’re really confident in something over a 12 or 13 game schedule, you hope that it’s going to play out more often. But I think keeping them separate’s a good idea. I know a lot of people don’t like to bet on the long term season and win total futures because it locks up your money for such a long time. So I think it’s probably a good idea to try to keep it separate so you’re not wondering like, “Hey, why can’t I place a bet on this game because I’ve got this locked up? So maybe if you want to try to plan on that for next year now, that would probably be a good way to look at it.

Gary Segars:

That is interesting. I had not really thought about that, but I might do that next year. I might just keep that completely separate away from everything else that I’m doing. Parker, you’re, I’m not going to say new to this, but relatively new as far as the bankroll stuff is concerned. How would you look at this? Kind of the same way that Kyle is?

Parker Fleming:

Yeah, I’m fully fine being like I’m learning so much about the actual NCAAF betting side besides just putting numbers on there and it’s fascinating and you guys have both been great resources in helping me with that as well. I was nodding along with Kyle. I didn’t think about it but I was just like, hey again, I don’t bet huge sums, I don’t bet for income or anything, but I do put my money where my mouth is on these. And the futures bets, I definitely the conference bets and the win totals. So power five conferences, like Kansas State, I put a unit on that. But I do keep just in my mind it’s like hey, this is what I’m going to allocate across these future bets. That’s not really, hey, here’s what I’m going to spend all season. And because also that window’s a lot longer. You can start betting some of those in May or whatever, looking forward to the season. And so I didn’t use all of my money that I set aside for futures just because I didn’t think there was enough bets I liked, but I implicitly did what Kyle did and should formalize that this fall.

Gary Segars:

I like it, I like it. Josh Gillum jumps in, he said, “Can TCU match Georgia’s physicality?” There’s several ways to look at this. Just on its face you would say no, TCU does not have the talent that Georgia does, especially at the line of scrimmage. However, these two teams play differently. So that defense and the way that the offense blocks are just completely different than what Georgia is really used to. So I’m going to say yes, they can match the physicality. Parker, we’ll start with you on this. How would you answer Josh’s question here?

Parker Fleming:

I mean, again, I think that we really need to think about how we think about football and physicality. If TCU and Michigan had to line up and put 10 men on the line and just play a game of tug of war, Michigan would’ve murdered them. If George and TCU had to do that, they’d do that. But that’s the reality is I don’t care if you’re super stronger than me and you could beat me every time you block me. If you can’t get to your assignments, I’m going to make a play. And TCU’s defense is really, especially in positions that are “weak” on physicality, like Dom Williams, a freshman nose tackle who’s playing in the national championship and will play most of TCU’s snaps, he won’t be on the stat line. His responsibility is to soak up A gaps.

He could just fall down and take two guys with him and win that rep. So you’ve got to think about what they’re being asked to do when you think about physicality. I also would challenge you to look at Mark Perry, Abe Kamara, Dee Winter’s hitting a guy and say that TCU isn’t physical. You need to think a lot more about physical, more than big burley linemen standing in the way of you because football’s a moving game and TCU especially in this defense, is going to play a lot more of a flyover defense. And force equals mass times acceleration. Georgia might have more mass, Michigan might have had more mass, but you’ve got to get that acceleration in there and note where those guys are going to go. So again, if TCU had to line up and just play tug of war, they’d absolutely get out physicaled. Yes, but that’s not how football’s played, so I don’t think that’s helpful to necessarily fixate on.

Gary Segars:

I agree. I agree. Kyle, you feel the same way here?

Kyle Hunter:

I do. I think that’s a too simplistic way of thinking. I think that it’s the type of thing that people say after a team loses. Well that team was just too physical for them. The other team was too physical. But I think that’s just taking it too far. It’s too simplistic like Parker said. So I echo that.

Gary Segars:

Agreed. Jordan Burkey jumps in. “What’s your guys’ favorite long shot for an any time touchdown scorer?” Parker, I see you already hit this one in the chat. So let me go ahead and get you to talk about this. You’ve got, let’s see, Jordan Hudson +850. Give me some thoughts on Jordan Hudson.

Parker Fleming:

Yeah, I’d love to hear … I’m sure you guys have maybe better thoughts on Georgia. Maybe one of the running backs would be smart just because who knows how they’re going to distribute the targets. But for TCU, a lot of their offense has been, hey, we’re going to throw it up to an athletic wide receiver and let him either get it or get PI and move the chains and hope for a home run. They’re a home run offense. Hudson, the last couple weeks, has been more involved and he’s had a couple balls where if they didn’t just obviously commit pass interference, he’d have a wide open touchdown. And so if you think about probability of getting a touchdown, those are 50-50 balls and if he catches it, it will be a touchdown. They’re going to chuck it to him. Especially as Quinton Johnston gets covered up. He’s the downfield guy they like. So I think that one makes a lot of sense, especially when they play those home run, pass interference balls. If he catches it, he can definitely get through there.

Gary Segars:

I do like that, especially at the +850. You look at the Georgia guys, I think the odds makers know exactly what we were talking about that who knows who Georgia is going to target in this because they got so many guys, right Kyle? I mean we’ve got Kenny McIntosh at -190 for anytime touchdown, Brock Bowers -190, Edwards -1140, Ladd McConkey is -140. We’ve got AD Mitchell -120. Stetson Bennett is +105. Darnell Washington +175, but Washington may not even play. Kearis Jackson’s +175 and then Kendall Milton is +175. Is there anybody on Georgia’s side that is actually worth an anytime touchdown scorer bet here?

Kyle Hunter:

I wouldn’t bet anybody on Georgia to bet an anytime touchdown. I think if you want to take a long shot on Georgia, you probably have to go to the player to score their first touchdown where you can at least get +500. Maybe AD Mitchell +550, something like that. But I don’t want to bet any Georgia anytime touchdowns because the price just isn’t there. And Parker, I went ahead and put a little bit of a bet in on Jordan Hudson as you were talking, so I’m going to be rooting for Jordan Hudson tonight.

Gary Segars:

I just did the exact same thing.

Parker Fleming:

Your lips to God’s ears.

Gary Segars:

Donald Boone jumps in, “Do you think that TCU needs multiple turnovers from Georgia to beat them?” I will answer first and then I’m going to get Kyle’s opinion on this. I’m going to say yes. I think that TCU needs this thing to be chaotic. I think they need it to go absolutely bonkers in order to win this ballgame. And that’s not to say that TCU cannot win the game straight up. I’m sure that they can find a way to do that. I think it is much more likely that they would win the game outright if things were to be chaotic as they were against Michigan. TCU is much more at home in that environment. Georgia, as you saw last week, not so much. They are not used to being behind, they are not used to a lot of turnovers, et cetera. I would say yes, but I could be incorrect there. Kyle, what are your thoughts on this? Do you think TCU needs multiple turnovers from Georgia to beat them?

Kyle Hunter:

I mean, I think it’s two separate questions. Do they have to have that to win? Probably not. Would that help their chances a lot? Of course, it would help their chances a lot. And I think that Georgia was put in a bad spot last week by Ohio State and a lot of things went right for them to come out with a one point win. And TCU would love to see Georgia playing from behind and Bennett having a lot of pressure on him. I think TCU’s secondary is probably better against the past than Ohio State’s is. And if they get behind and Bennett gets in an uncomfortable position, then that’s definitely a good script for TCU. I don’t think it has to be that way, but it would be a good strategy for them, certainly.

Gary Segars:

Parker, what are your thoughts here?

Parker Fleming:

I’m thinking a little bit about the Ohio State game and game script because specifically Georgia missed a field goal in the first half and had one fewer possession than Ohio State and was still only down 28-24. So when you normalize for possessions and you account for missed field goals, which I certainly wouldn’t think would happen week over week, Ohio State getting up was a little bit fluky there just in the number and sequencing of possessions and how the game bore out. So I’m thinking a lot about game state with TCU. Especially if Kendre Miller is limited, I don’t think TCU is very well suited to sit on a lead and run the ball out against Georgia. It’ll turn into a track meet. So my thoughts are that TCU would try and turn it into a track meet early on because that’s going to maximize variance.

If we’re throwing the ball downfield, that’s certainly a more high variance outcome and when you’re the underdog, variance is your friend. So I don’t think they need multiple turnovers because you could imagine a world where TCU scores on the first drive, Georgia gets behind the chains and punts, TCU scores again. We’re talking about a very weird different game there. But if it becomes a track meet, I think TCU’s going to need a pivotal stop and the likelihood of that being turnover is much, much higher than just an honest to God four down stop against this Georgia offense. So I would be surprised if they … I don’t think they need them, like Kyle said, but I’d be shocked if they won and didn’t have multiple turnovers.

Gary Segars:

I tend to agree. I tend to agree.

Parker Fleming:

Tend to be fair, I’d be shocked if they won at all. But I’d be shocked if they won and didn’t have multiple turnovers too.

Gary Segars:

There you go. There you go. Let’s see. Do we have any more questions in the chat? How about this? If you do have more questions, you can always reach out to us on Twitter and you can always comment in this video once this thing is done and we will do our best until game time to answer as many questions as we possibly can in that time span. So go ahead and toss that thing in there. I see guys talking about the coin toss. Guys, don’t bet the coin toss.

Parker Fleming:

Live your life.

Gary Segars:

Whatever the coin toss is, if you get plus odds on one side, yeah, bet that one. That would work. I guess. Let’s do a quick picks recap. Let’s discuss our best bets so far on today’s show. The one that I am going to toss in there to count against the record, so to go with my 57-39-3 so far on the year, I’m going to take Quentin Johnston total receiving touchdowns over one half. I got it at +120, I think it’s +115 now. Again, these things are moving so keep track of what’s going on. But that’s going to be my best bet. Parker, give me your card as far as your prop bets for tonight.

Parker Fleming:

Okay, here’s where I landed and what I’ve put money on as we were doing the show here. Duggan over one half rushing touchdowns, +130, anytime defense, special score, +220, longest TD over 50.5, -120, Taye Barber for a touchdown anytime, +210, Quentin Johnston over 33.5, -115, and Brock Bowers over 25.5 long for -115. And our aforementioned pizza money on Jordan Hudson long shot, +800 for a touchdown. That’s a lot more bets than I thought I was going to do going into this game. This show definitely influenced me.

Gary Segars:

I can understand that. Kyle, how about you give out your card? I’ll give out mine once we’re done with that.

Kyle Hunter:

Yeah, I like longest touchdown of the game. Certainly liked it better at over 47 and a half, but still think it’s pretty good bet at over 50 and a half. Took Quentin Johnston over 84 and a half receiving yards. I’m going to put a little bit of a small one also on Quentin Johnston over 33 and a half for the longest catch. Max Duggan first half anytime touchdown score, +280. I think that’s a good value so I do like that one. And I like TCU plus seven and a half in the first half also.

Gary Segars:

I like it. Now these are the ones that I’m going to roll with tonight or that I’ve already got down. I’ve got AD Mitchell -200 to have more receiving yards than TCU wide receiver Derius Davis. I like TCU wide receiver Taye Barber +105 to have more receiving yards than Georgia’s Ladd McConkey. I like the longest touchdown in the game the same as the guys do. I liked it much better at 47 and a half. 50 and a half, okay. We’ll see. Max Duggan anytime touchdown. I got that one down but I do like Max Duggan over a half rushing touchdowns because that one is still plus odds if I’m not mistaken. Over rushing yards for Max Duggan 31 and a half. I got that at -120. I originally bet it at 28 and a half. I still kind of like it at 31 and a half. Along with that, Stetson Bennett over one half interception at -110. And that’s the way that I’m going to roll on that.

I did just put in a bet on Parker’s Jordan Hudson anytime touchdown at +850 so we will see what comes out of that. Gentlemen, what a fantastic day. We had quite a few people watch, still have quite a few people watching. But it is going to close out today’s show and I believe that this will be the last one of the college football season. So let me go on and get you guys to come in here. I say thank you to the crew, to the audience and whatnot all the time. But Kyle, let’s start off with you. You got any closing thoughts on the season?

Kyle Hunter:

Yeah. First off, thank you for everybody that’s tuned in throughout the course of the season. I mean you guys have made this a lot of fun. I think the viewer numbers have gone way up this year compared to last year and the chat is always so much fun. We talk about how that’s the funnest part every single week. Also, I wanted to say thank you to Parker and Gary. You guys make this a lot of fun. I like listening to you guys, learning from you guys as well. We always have a lot of fun with this show and certainly great. I look forward to doing this show every single time. And then everybody behind the scene at BetUS, you guys do a great job. Fantastic graphics. You guys are all great to work with. So yeah, just thank you to everybody. This has been a lot of fun this year. We certainly appreciate it a lot.

Gary Segars:

Most certainly. Parker, what about you? Closing thoughts?

Parker Fleming:

Yeah. I can’t just say how much I am grateful for you, Gary and Kyle, and to get to do this and to be friends. I think there’s a lot of people that probably do shows and talk bets and talk football that don’t legitimately become friends so I’m very grateful for that and excited for what we can continue to do this off season and beyond. And of course grateful to BetUS and the crew. And Gary, you say this every week, but it’s true, the chat. If you guys weren’t in here joking and laughing and interacting, this would be way less fun and we probably wouldn’t get to do it as much. So we appreciate you guys being there and hope to continue to bring you great content that’s engaging and informative and man, hope everybody’s bets cash tonight and I’m going to go sit in a state of anxiety for the next five hours waiting on this game to start.

Gary Segars:

I’m with you my friend. I am with you. I am ready for this evening. Yes, the chat. You guys are the lifeblood of this program. You are exactly what we had to have and we certainly appreciate you guys. Everybody that has subscribed this year. We are up almost 10,000 subscribers since around national signing day last year. It is an insane amount of growth that the show has had and it’s all because of you guys. So we certainly, certainly appreciate that. Kyle and Parker, you guys to me, have become fantastic friends. And it’s not just because of the show. I mean obviously we started talking before that, but doing the show weekly certainly helps. Life gets in the way. When you have something scheduled every week where you have to come in and talk to each other, it helps things out. So that certainly helps.

But man, it has been an absolute ride this season. I am so thankful for not only you guys that are in the chat, you guys that come in and watch the show live every week, but Kyle and Parker as well. Our crew at BetUS is really the best in the business. They keep us accountable. They keep track of everything that we need to have done. The guys that run the stream are awesome. I mean it is fantastic what they are capable of doing and we are just lucky to be cogs in the machine. I will say that. They are really, really what makes the show run along with the guys in the chat. So good gracious, what a year it has been, what a night it will be tonight. Hopefully everybody will be watching. Once we’re done with that ballgame, there is really no off season in college football so you can always reach out to us on Twitter. We will figure out what we are going to do here on this channel going forward. But yes, we appreciate all of you for being here with us all season long. With that said, if you hadn’t subscribed, go ahead and subscribe and make sure that you like the video. Gentlemen, for BetUS, where the game begins, God bless college football, don’t forget to check out our sportsbook website and we’ll see you all again soon.