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Chiefs vs Eagles Super Bowl 2023 | NFL Game Predictions, Odds and Early Preview

T.J.:

Well hey there and welcome back to Into the BetUS NFL show. We’re glad that you’re with us for a Thursday. We’re coming your way a little later on Thursday, still in the 1:00 Eastern time hour. We typically have been here throughout the football season at 1:00 Eastern time. My guys Scott Kellen and Chris Farley are back aboard even though the Super Bowl not being played in Arizona until a week from Sunday, we couldn’t resist. We couldn’t let a Thursday go by and not chat up Super Bowl 57 Philadelphia Eagles, Kansas City Chiefs a little bit. So boys, good to be back with you, and we’re going to have a bit of an interesting show here to give you some insight, to give you some early reads at some futures plays maybe and even a chance at some live Q and A. So if you’re with us live here on Thursday in the 1:00 Eastern Time hour, hit us up with some questions and answers.

We’ll try to get to some of those. That has not been typical. If you’re new to the show, we don’t typically have a lot of time for Q and A. Today, we’ll have a little bit at the back end of the show. So if you’ve got some questions about futures plays or some of the stuff we’re talking about, hit us up and as always, hit that Like button. Make sure that you’re subscribed here on the Bet US NFL Show. Chris Farley, good to be back with you. It’s Philadelphia, Kansas City. We’ve got plenty of time to talk about it today and next week. How are things my friend?

Chris Farley:

Things are great. Yeah, right now I’m on the edge of my seat to talk about the Super Bowl. I feel like by next week I’ll be exhausted talking about the Super Bowl. So right now it’s still exciting. It kind of stinks that there’s two weeks in between because you really want to see these teams play but great for their injuries, great for rest and recovery. And I think as the line indicates, this is going to be a very entertaining game. So I’m looking forward to talking about it with both of you.

T.J.:

Yep, no doubt about that. Scott Kellen, good to be back with you here. And we should say to the audience, Scott is not able to be with us next week, so take a lot of what he’s saying here to heart with his leans and his stuff. But we may even sneak in an official play. We’ll proxy you an official play if needed. Good to have you with us today, still 10 days away from the game. How are things?

Scott Kellen:

Things are great. It kind of seems like an eternity between now when the Super Bowl will happen. So kind of everything Chris said, and I don’t know what I’m going to do Sunday, T.J. I’m going to wake up and it’s going to be the first time at what, 20 some odd weeks, there’s no NFL. I’m sure I’ll be working on some prop stuff and whatnot. And if the stars align, possibly I’ll throw in any of the picks I have next week and you guys can at least post them as well. But excited to get going, and I agree this looks like it’s going to be a fantastic game. Unfortunately with every game that’s played, whether you bet it or not, you try to take something from it and learn and just use that as data going forward. I don’t know what we learned from the Philadelphia game last week because they basically ended up playing like Navy who could not throw the ball essentially. So that was very unfortunate, but we’ll move forward and it should be a great game.

T.J.:

The injury obviously to Brock Purdy, which does turn out to be a torn elbow ligament, and he is going to be out at least six months if not a year. So that could affect obviously the 49ers plans as well. They’ve got Trey Lance injured off the season and he’s coming back from a season ending injury. What does San Francisco do there? But you’re right, that game became almost comical and almost just run the clock out because San Francisco couldn’t throw the ball. They didn’t have a quarterback left to throw it. Not even Christian McCaffrey on really one good leg, who had played some high school quarterback and had thrown the ball some at Stanford as a running back that could throw the ball, they couldn’t even use him in the game. And so it became a one-sided blowout. Two easy wins for the Eagles and then two impressive games for the Chiefs in the fourth quarter in particular as they pulled out the win over Cincinnati dramatically.

The game they lost a year ago at Arrowhead, they pulled out dramatically. All right, so let’s take a look at our overall record through everything now, through the championship games, through the regular season. Look at that. The show still sitting 20 games above 500. We did have some picks come through last week on the show, including Chris with a Brock Purdy under 19 and a half completions. You had no issue whatsoever once Purdy got hurt. You were golden on that. You also had Jalen Hurts under on the rushing total. You also had the game total for the Philadelphia San Francisco game under. So Chris had a good week last week. As Scott mentioned, he was really derailed by the injury to Purdy on the things that you had analyzed and put forward in that game there from last week. All right, so let’s get into this matchup a little bit.

Here’s what we’ll do on the schedule. The matchup is the Chiefs and the Eagles. We have the winners, the Kansas City Chiefs of the Super Bowl back three seasons ago, Super Bowl 54. We have the Eagles who did win the Super Bowl a couple of years before that in Super Bowl 52 previously. That’s Nick Foltz beating Tom Brady in the Patriots. So now the Eagles are back in. The Chiefs are in for the third time in four years. The line is one, Philadelphia favored by one, total is 51 in this one. All right, give me a quick thought here. Chris, you made mention of… That the line indicates it’s going to be a very competitive game. Are you surprised that Philadelphia’s not at least let’s say a field goal favorite right away?

Chris Farley:

Well, Sunday night we saw this line come out. Kansas City is short favorite and the sharp betting community moved in really fast. I mean within minutes you saw that line starting to shift and then very quickly it went onto Philly’s side. So I think it checks out in a lot of ways. I mean as far as metrics go, power ratings go, the way that the handicapping community evaluates these games, the Philadelphia Eagles are going to get a lot of high marks. This is a very, very complete team. They’re a matchup problem for everybody they face in the NFL, which speaks to how much talent they have, especially in the trenches. I mean we saw Anadama Katsu come in from the second string on their defensive line against the 49ers, right? That’s the kind of personnel you have on the Philadelphia Eagles. So it makes sense. It makes sense that they’re a slight favorite.

But I wouldn’t look too much into this line if I’m the audience, if I’m betting on this game because this is virtually a pick them, right? The sports folks came out liked Kansas City, the sharps like Philadelphia. But the point is it should be a very close game and it’s really hard to choose a side. I will say that I am leaning pretty strongly towards Kansas City, so strongly in fact that I do have a bet that I could mention on this show that I am going to pick the Kansas City… I mean, are we getting to that part just yet? So-

T.J.:

Actually, we wanted to talk injuries first and it’s my fault because I kind of prompted you on the line, so we’ll get to… That’s a good tease though.

Chris Farley:

[inaudible 00:07:00].

T.J.:

We’ll get to what you think here in the next segment. Scott Keller, along those same NFL lines with Mahomes’ injury status. And again we believe he’s going to play. He’s got an extra week to rest. We saw him hobbling at the end of the AFC title game. Do you believe this line kind of is where it is because of the uncertainty with Mahomes and the ankle? I guess how much of that is a factor Scott Kellen?

Scott Kellen:

Yeah, I think a couple things. First of all, if the line’s bouncing from one and a half KC to one and a half Philadelphia, like Chris said, it’s basically a pick them. I don’t want to call it completely irrelevant. Last time I took a money line when the line was plus one, Arizona and Seattle, the game tied 6-6, and I got my money back rather than winning. So I don’t want to call that stuff on a Sunday night game, if you guys remember that years ago.

T.J.:

I do.

Scott Kellen:

So I don’t want to call it completely irrelevant, but the one, one and half to one and a half on the other side is not super important. And I will say yes, I think there’s some Mahomes stuff in there, but remember Kansas City had a lot of injuries in that game. Tony, Smith-Schuster, L’Jarius Sneed, their best cornerback with a concussion, a couple of the linebackers. So, I think what-

T.J.:

Hardman, yes. Mecole Hardman, yes.

Scott Kellen:

Yeah, and Hardman as well. So I think it’s a reflection of all that kind of coming together and uncertainty, especially on Sunday night after the line came out in Philadelphia, Dickerson got a little banged up on the offensive line, but I think he’s going to be okay, and you got just the remaining questions on Hurts. So I think a lot of that movement, perhaps a little bit came because of that as well and just all that uncertainty built in and you remember, people will take something, it’s a great line. You can get Philly plus one, they’ll take it and they’ll figure it out later just knowing the injuries. So I think there was a fair amount of that going on in regards to that as well.

T.J.:

All right, so health is going to be an important thing. Couple of distinctions while Andy Reid has been talking about some injury stuff this week, the teams don’t have to put an injury report out until the middle of next week. It’s always that policy of it’s usually four days before the game you’ll start seeing injury stuff that is going to be important. They didn’t even have Mahomes on the injury report last week. They basically just greenlighted him and said he’s going to play. It’s not going to be even listed as questionable that he is going to play. So let’s just see on the injuries and that will be more of a factor for Kansas City, especially the receivers. Remember at the end of that game, because of the injuries during the game, they were only down to I believe two healthy wide receivers at the very end with Tony hurt, with Hardman hurt during the game and one other receiver that got hurt during the game, they were down to maybe three at the most, but two receivers for a lot of the stuff they were doing. Obviously you’ve got a chance if you’re Andy Reid now to work a couple of other guys out. We’ll see how that plays in.

That’s a next week question with the injuries. All right, so to the matchup itself, Chris, you started here on this with a couple of things from a future standpoint that you’re looking ahead. Give me something here, and Scott you’re going to give me something as well. Give me something, Chris, here that you’re looking at a week and a half out.

Chris Farley:

Yeah, sure. First of all, I’ll talk about the total. This is up to 51 at bet US, 50 and a half at a lot of other books. And for a Super Bowl matchup, that’s a pretty high total. And we know how effective, how potent these two offenses can be, but that total’s only gone over 50 12 different times in the Super Bowl, 9 and 3 against the spread to the under. And in a lot of these situations, especially when you have a team like the Philadelphia Eagles who are led by, let’s face it, a 24- year old quarterback who seems like he has as much poise as anybody in the NFL, but the Super Bowl’s a little different. There’s going to be flash bulbs going off, the nerves, the feeling of the moment. I think the Kansas City defense too, they just have an uncanny ability to play really well in the post-season.

I do think they’re going to make a lot of stops against the Philly offense, and I think we can trust on the other end that the Philly defense where as talented as it is, as fast as they are. I mean we saw Haason Reddick in that last game just explosive from the very beginning, cause that fumble to Brock Purdy. I think they’re going to be ready and defenses feel a lot less of the nerves, right? Because I mean they’re not the ones holding the ball. All they got to do is tackle right? And I don’t know, it’s just an easier thing to get used to. I think you just don’t feel the same amount of nerves. So even though these two offenses are so potent, I like the under in this one, especially at 51, 51 is a key number in total, so it’s nice that it’s up there to 51 at bet US.

And I tend to think that it’s going to shift down a little bit more in the next week or week and a half. So I’m going to take advantage of that now, and I’m going to also be on the Kansas City Chiefs as a money line underdog. It’s only around plus 105 or so, but I think it makes a lot of sense. Patrick Mahomes and this Chief’s team… I mean let’s start with Patrick Mahomes, right? Clearly he is the best quarterback between the two just because of all the experience have. I mean he’s Patrick Mahomes. I don’t think many people would say there’s a better quarterback than him right now in the NFL. So, five straight years he’s been to the AFC title game since he started as the Kansas City Chiefs quarterback, five straight years he’s been to a Pro Bowl, and this is his third Super Bowl appearance in five years.

So I mean that experience is incomparable to what Jalen Hurst has experienced so far in his pro NFL career. And my thing is, and I think it speaks to Scott’s bets that too that I really like he’s going to talk about soon is if Kansas City has the ball at the end of this game, if it’s a one-score game and Patrick Mahomes has a shot, which I think it will be, and the line indicates it’s going to be close, then I trust Patrick Mahomes to make it happen in that situation in any situation really. We saw him last week making unbelievable throws on one leg. The guy just makes it happen. We’ve seen it time and time again, and I think that’s going to be the difference. If this Kansas City defense… Like I said, they play really well in these big spots, they’re going to have their offense.

Philly’s going to have some wins in this one too, but I do think that the moment is going to be huge for Jalen Hurts. I think he’ll handle it well, but let’s face it. In that game against San Francisco, when we did see him throw, he didn’t look that great. He air mailed a few passes. Maybe his shoulder’s not a hundred percent. He did say that before the game. So I don’t know if something’s a little off for Jalen right now, but I don’t think they can depend on their running game throughout this entire game. They’re going to have to throw the football at a certain point, and when it comes down to it, we haven’t seen Jalen Hurts have to throw a precision pass in a big moment yet in his career, not like this. That’s a really tough thing to… Just because we don’t know it doesn’t mean he is not going to do it, but I would rather err on the side of a Patrick Mahomes, especially if I think it’s going to be a one=score game. So for now, under 51 and Chief’s money line.

T.J.:

Interesting on those two plays, 10 days out. Scott Kellen, ton of college experience. For what it’s worth for Jalen Hurts, I was in attendance for the college football playoff championship win the first matchup with Clemson when they won the game in Arizona in that same stadium, what is State Farm Stadium now. They then played here in Tampa in the rematch game won by Deshaun Watson and Clemson, but Jalen Hurts got the Alabama Crimson tide in the end zone in the final minute they left too much time. Deshaun Watson went to the other end and Clemson scored and won the gamer. They would’ve had back-to-back titles. Interesting that Hurts then stayed another season at Alabama after that, went to the bench in favor of Tua Tagoviola and eventually had to be used in relief of Tua a couple of times, was a great teammate that season before transferring to Oklahoma. So he’s played in a lot of big college postseason games. He’s played now in three NFL postseason games. A thought on Hurts and give me something early here that you’re looking towards, you’re leaning towards 10 days out Scott Kellen?

Scott Kellen:

Yeah, on the Hurts thing, to Chris’s point, the average 3.8 yards of play last week against San Francisco, now they ran the ball 44 times, but without going back and looking at it real quick, their yards per pass were not super high either. Now they were playing a very elite defense. And this is again why it was so disappointing. First of all, I’m sitting there with the over on George Kittle three and a half receptions. He ends up with three. I’ve got the [inaudible 00:15:31] for the game of course. And Chris has just the opposite of it where he’s got the under Purdy. So I’m just imagining Chris sitting there having some drinks, maybe a big tub of ice cream or something because everything is good and maybe I’m drinking for the opposite reason, right, because I can see this thing falling apart. But I mean kudos to Philadelphia, they put themselves in a position to have everything that they had but they haven’t been real tested in…

And I even saw someone say this week we’re focusing so much on Mahomes’ injury. It’s possible Hurts is even maybe more banged up than Mahomes in some degree. So there’s a big unknown there and that was the most disappointing thing about last week’s game. We really didn’t get to see a whole lot just because of the way the game played out. With that said, a couple points, first of all, I think one thing that Kansas City was able to take advantage of… And they played great last week was that defensive line against a very, very banged up Cincinnati offensive line. And clearly they were able to play to that and really help. They won’t have quite that same luxury this week. Another thing from a matchup standpoint, you’re going to be looking at the two Kansas City tackles who are number three and number nine in the league and allowing the most pressures and taking on the two ends for Philadelphia, who I believe are number three and number nine in generating the most pressures in win rates.

So that will be a very, very interesting matchup to watch. That part of it could favor Philadelphia a little bit. With all that said, my numbers put this game at one and a half right now, depending on where these injuries shake out. They do suggest the total would be a little bit higher. Again, depending where injuries shake out, maybe 54 or 56 points. But I have another model that I use that’s not as reliable and that has this thing closer to 46 points and it kind of focuses in a little bit more based on the fact that Philadelphia runs the ball a little bit more here as well. So I haven’t made a play in the total. And then to Chris’s point, and this is another reason I haven’t made to play, I know Chris threw out 9 and 3, and so maybe we’re missing something or maybe, I guess it’s just the number, right? Because I’ve got 8 and 4 to the under and any total in the Super Bowl that’s in the fifties, so very similar results including the last three.

What’s interesting though is totals that have been blind between 47 and a half… And I use that number because 47 is a pretty key number, up to 49 and a half, so we’re still under 50 and that 51 that Chris talked about that are so key. Those last eight games lined in between 47 and a half and 49 and a half have all gone over the total. So depending on where this total goes, that could be a play here. And if this thing would slide back under 50, maybe I would get more interested in taking the over as well. So I think it’s going to be a great matchup. The numbers are pretty good right now. And that offensive line versus defensive line for Philadelphia, I think will be very intriguing. But the best player on this field is still Patrick Mahomes as well.

And I’ll say one last thing. Kansas City has lost three games this year, and I believe if I’m correct, they’ve been by three or four points at the most, right? So I just don’t see them getting blown out. They got blown out a couple years ago against Tampa Bay, but that offensive line that they had was in shambles at the time. I don’t see that happening. To me, this is going to be a very close game, especially if Kansas City… If they’re going to lose, they’re going to lose a very close game, and I think it’s going to be a great game.

T.J.:

I was a witness there to the Brady win obviously in the pandemic crazy Super Bowl at Raymond James Stadium and that Tom Brady guy had a lot to do with it too, hitting Rob Gronkowski a couple times and Antonio Brown another time all in the first half of that game. All right, so again the handicappers gave you a couple of things that were there. Let’s get to a couple of questions while we have a couple of more minutes here. Aaron Rodd is watching us and wants to know about first player to score props. We’ll kind of talk some more about this next week when we do this. Scott, since you’re not here next week, do you like a first player to score prop in general? And if you do, is it the Mahomes touchdown pass? Is it Hurts on the ground? Thoughts, Scott Kellen?

Scott Kellen:

Yeah, I’m not into those a lot and also I’ll just say this is in regard to props, a couple things. If you’re going to bet overs, generally better to bet them early than late. If you’re going to bet under, it’s just the opposite. Generally speaking, you bet those late rather than early just because most people are going to bet overs. Index props which are like, “Hey, is Kansas City going to win by one to five or six to 13?” I would stay away from those. I think they’re very, very difficult. And the touchdown props, it’s something I just haven’t done a lot of when I have done it. For the most part it hasn’t worked out real well. So for the most part I just stay away from that as well. But I will say this, I mean it kind of depends on these injuries. If L’Jarius Sneed can’t go in the secondary for Kansas City, they’re going to have a lot of rookies back there.

And you do have two elite receivers from Philadelphia and I kind of mentioned this last week, Kansas City, although they held Cincinnati pretty well in check last week, they have not played super well against teams with multiple elite receivers. So some of it kind of depends on how the injuries shake out as well.

T.J.:

Chris, do you have any thought real quick, give me a quick answer on if first person to score, do you generally like to play that? Do you generally stay away and do you have a thought if you do like to play it?

Chris Farley:

Quick thought. My only thought is those are the kind of bets where the sports folks can put some extra casinos, put some extra tables and chairs down there on the main floor. Those are easy bets to lose, so I would avoid those for the most part.

T.J.:

All right, wipe out on those. A lot of people are interested in most valuable player. It almost always is the quarterback. So for both of you, what’s an interesting thought on an MVP not named Mahomes or Hurts? Chris first, real quick.

Chris Farley:

Yeah, it’s really tough for Philly because we saw last week that run game can really be sensational once they get going. Now San Francisco actually did a really good job, especially in the first half. The second half they really took it over in some garbage time. So if Philly wins, I don’t think it’s going to be Jalen Hurts that wins it because it’s probably going to be a defensive win. It probably means there’s a lot of sacks on Mahomes and something like that.

T.J.:

Maybe Reddick with some sacks, maybe Haason Reddick as a midline?

Chris Farley:

Yeah, maybe like a defensive lineman or something like that or one of the running backs.

T.J.:

Scott Kellen, Travis Kelsey’s name comes up a bunch. And we don’t know how healthy he’s going to be, played with back spasms in the championship game and had some big catches including a touchdown. Is Kelsey the next logical MVP play besides one of the quarterbacks maybe in this game?

Scott Kellen:

Yeah, I think potentially… I mean back in the Philly thing I think it would have to. Because they’ve got so many people it would have to be somebody that kind of wrecks the game like a Reddick. Kelsey, yeah, and I read something the other day. I think he had an okay game against Tampa Bay in that Super Bowl, but they were getting blown out. They kind of just went to him. But where I read where… He’s been a little bit held in check in some of the Super Bowls as well. So possibly, but he has been held in check in a few Super Bowls I think as well.

T.J.:

All right, good enough there on the questions on the Q and A and the live Q and A. Let’s take a look at what we have here for you guys and your plays for this week. I know Scott Kellen, you also like the play the team, as we see it there, the team that scores last is going to win the game as a prop as well as something else to keep an eye on in addition to the ones that Chris is already handing out with the Kansas City money line and the under total. There-

Scott Kellen:

Hey, T.J., yeah, let me just throw that out there real quick.

T.J.:

Sure.

Scott Kellen:

This is hit 12 of the last 13 years. Last year, I think it… I haven’t seen it yet this year. It’s probably out there, but I missed it. It was juice minus two 30 last year when I played it. So it’s a very high juice, 12 of the last 13 years. This game does figure to be close. If it is close, very good chance that the last team that scores is going to win the game as well.

T.J.:

Not a lot of garbage points and garbage touchdowns. Listen, we’re going to have plenty on this next week. Scott, a final thought because you’re not here with us next week. A final thought on this?

Scott Kellen:

Look, it’s a Super Bowl. You don’t have to bet it. I don’t even know if I’ll have a play on the side or total. But the prop bets do offer a ton of value if you can find them. Generally speaking, unders are better than overs, but you know what? If you find the right value, the over is there as well. And again, overs bet them early typically, unders bet them late and just enjoy the game. Stay in control. Enjoy the game, and hopefully we can all cash a few tickets.

T.J.:

That should be a lot of fun. Chris Farley, I know you’re going to be here next week. Final thought? You gave us a couple of early looks there. Final thought?

Chris Farley:

My final thought is if the Eagles remain the favorite, that would break Kansas City’s streak of being a post-season favorite of 14.

T.J.:

Wow.

Chris Farley:

I think it’s 14 or 15 games in a row. So extra motivation again for Patrick Mahomes. Watch out.

T.J.:

All right, good enough, gentlemen. Well done on an advanced show for Super Bowl 57. If you like this, guess what? We’re going to do it again next Thursday in advance of Super Bowl 57. Scott Kellen, it’s been great to be with you all season long. Thank you.

Scott Kellen:

Thank you.

T.J.:

We’ll see what happens in the Super Bowl. We appreciate your time, your insight. They made money if they were listening to your brother Kellen throughout the year. Thank you.

Scott Kellen:

Thank you. Great to be with you guys and appreciate all the beers as well.

T.J.:

We love that.

Chris Farley:

[inaudible 00:25:13].

T.J.:

Chris, you and I next week, let’s scrap some more over what’s going to happen in Super Bowl 57. My thanks to Antonio and everybody at BetUS. We’ll get you ready for Super Bowl 57 next Thursday before the game in Arizona.

 

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