TJ Rives:
All right. We are ready to get into it. We have two games to handicap, a reminder. Thank you for finding us however you have found us here live on Thursdays. You see the overall record. Look at that. We are all the way to the end of the season. So, the show will finish with a winning record, unless you guys pick 87 things wrong this weekend and for the Super Bowl. The show has done very well throughout the year. So, well done so far, guys. And are we ready? Are we ready to get into it? I say that we are ready to get into it. Let’s go. San Francisco and Philadelphia will play in the first of two games on Sunday. This is the NFC Championship game in Philadelphia as the Eagles are a two and a half point favorite. The total is 46 and a half in this one. So, let’s begin the discussion. Let’s begin the handicapping. What do we like here? Chris Farley, to start things off. And it’s going to be more than one thing from each of you guys, I think, on this opening game. Chris, what do you like?
Chris Farley:
Yeah. I’m expanding my horizons here a little bit and getting into the prop market because that’s just the way these games are this weekend. It’s really tough to handicap. Like I said, I could see any one of these teams in the Super Bowl, and I think they would be a very formidable opponent for whoever they face. And these NFL lines speak to that, right? We’re seeing San Francisco under a field goal. Really hasn’t moved all week. I’m sorry, Philadelphia as a favorite under a field goal. Really hasn’t moved all week. And they deserve to be that, right? Home field advantage is a real deal. They are Lincoln Financial Field. We all know what these teams are made of at this point, right? Great skill players on offense. Two inexperienced, but two quarterbacks that seem like they’ve had a lot of poise this year. They can really command their offenses.
Brock Purdy is certainly really impressive from coming in mid-season. But I’m starting to look at something in this game. I mean, for me, the way to handicap this game is to look at the factor that matters most. And I do think it is these two quarterbacks. I think we could expect for them to have some nerves heading into this contest. I mean, Brock Purdy has only had two road games in his eight starts. In those two road games against Vegas, against Miami, they were higher scoring, right? One score games. So, you know what? That fact that I just said was wrong. That’s based off of one of my props. But he’s only had two away games this year, and they were close games.
TJ Rives:
The other one was Seattle. I’ll help you.
Chris Farley:
Yeah, that’s right. Seattle and Vegas.
TJ Rives:
The other one was Seattle on the Thursday night, and he was good in both of the games, but it is a small sample size and this is the NFC title game. Continue on.
Chris Farley:
Seattle and Vegas, one score games. That Vegas game went into overtime, right? So, it’s only the third time he’s going to be on the road, by far the hardest environment that he’s going to be in. And then, on the other hand, Jalen Hurts, a lot of people crowning him as the next superstar. But he really hasn’t had the experience either, right? Last year in the playoffs against the Bucs, 23 for 43, 2 interceptions, did not have a good game against a very solid Bucs defense last season. So now, this is definitely his biggest test because, as much as I love my Giants, they weren’t much of a test last weekend, right? And the Eagles can really run their script the way they want to. So, the way I’m looking at this game is based off of two quarterbacks struggling. I like Brock Purdy to go under 19 and a half completions. He’s only gone over twice this year, and those were in those two high scoring games against Miami, against Vegas.
Most of the time he’s not going to get to that mark. They’re a run first operation. We know that. And this Eagle’s pass defense leads the league in sacks, right? They allow the least pass yards per game. So, I don’t think he’s going to get to 20 in this one. And I’m going to go Jalen Hurts under 48 and a half rushing yards in this game, as well. He averages about 50 on the year, but if you look at the opponents where he averaged, where he had big games, we’re talking about teams like the Colts, teams like the Giants, right? It seems like the Cardinals. That’s not the San Francisco defense. This is a top five rushing defense in the NFL, second in yards per carry, and in rush yards per game.
I do think Jalen Hurts is probably going to have to scramble a bit, but to assume that he is going to get over 48, that’s a pretty big line for a game where he’s going to be under a lot of pressure. And finally, I’m going to take the under in this game. The two defenses where, I think, they’re going to really control it early. Maybe these two quarterbacks find their footing halfway through the contest or so, but I expect it to be a really slow start. Both offenses good against the pass, aggressive, San Francisco’s third in interception rate in the NFL.
There’s going to be moments in this game where both quarterbacks, I think, are going to look pretty befuddled. And I’m not going to pick a side because of that reason. I don’t know which one is going to show up better. But I will say this. San Francisco’s run game, I think, is the X-factor. The Eagles are 24th in the NFL in rush yards allowed per carry. We know 49ers can run the ball, very formidable offensive line, and if they can get established that early, they take pressure off of Brock Purdy, which would be a great thing for that San Francisco offense. So, I lean San Francisco, like the under, and I like the under in my other two props, as well.
TJ Rives:
All right. You gave us a lot there, and we will go over this again. You’ll see it, graphically, you’ll see it at the end of the show. Scott Kellen, the Eagles are the only team out of the four in the championship weekend that I didn’t see at field level. They’re, obviously, really good. I saw the 49ers in December, and to Chris’s point about the defense, it’s stout. They’ve got a great pass rush. It is going to be a challenge for Hurts and Company. Let’s go to you. You are handicapping this NFC title game. What do you like officially and why, 49ers and Philly?
Scott Kellen:
Yeah. The first thing I’m going to say, TJ, and I’ll reiterate this, I think, when we do the Cincinnati game just for people who only listen to maybe one or the other game. This is something I’ve followed for a long, long, long time. It’s conference championship week. We go back to 1970. There’s been 52 years of these games, 104 games. So, I’m going to give you something that has worked and has stood the test of time. It’s very, very simplistic. It’s probably so simplistic, you’ll probably dismiss it. And this is not something that ultimately decides what I’m on, but it can help to reinforce it.
And so, what I have found over those 52 years and 104 games, taking the team with the best defense, and that defense is simply, and this is where it gets very simplistic, is simply defined as a team who has allowed the fewest amount of points in the regular season, those teams, more times than not, cover the game. So, again, remember we got 52 years worth of data, 104 games. Just check my numbers here because there’s a whole bunch of numbers in this. But 23 of those 52 years, you would’ve won both games. So, you would’ve won two units however you want to.
TJ Rives:
By just taking the team that allowed the fewest points between the two in the matchup?
Scott Kellen:
Correct. Correct. And by the way, that is just for purposes of explaining who it is, it’s San Francisco and Cincinnati this year.
TJ Rives:
Okay.
Scott Kellen:
So, 22, I’m sorry, 23 of those 52 years, you would’ve won both games. One year there was only one game and a push, but you would’ve still made money. Seven years of those 52, you would’ve lost both games. Or again, there might’ve been a push on one game, and you lost and the other one, you would’ve lost money. And the other, whatever that math ends up being, I think it’s the other 22 years, you won one, you lost one, you basically broke even minus some juice. So, now, since 2000, both teams have won using that method six times. They have both lost three times in 13 years. It’s gone one and one. So, it hasn’t been quite as dynamic the last 22 years as it was the previous to that.
But it’s something to hold our hat onto. Also, since 1970, with laying less than 10 points, and we’re certainly doing that here, the straight-up winner in these games is 86 wins, five losses, and two pushes against the spread. However, since 2009, it’s 21 and five against the spread. So, all five of those losses have come here in the last, whatever that is, 13 years or so. So, with that as a backdrop, now the other caveat here is my numbers support Philadelphia in this game a little bit. What I just laid out supports San Francisco. So, I’m a little torn on the side, but I’m going to go over the total in this game. And I told Chris before the game, we don’t we’re going to say to defend our position in any of these games until we get live like this.
TJ Rives:
Right.
Scott Kellen:
But I told Chris, I said, “Look, everything you say, Chris, I could probably support it.” Someone asked me to support a narrative for the under, I could support that. Or I could easily see this game playing out like last week. Another great defense in Philadelphia, much like Dallas, these teams like to run the ball, et cetera, et cetera. These teams played week two or three last year. Obviously, a different dynamic, different players here. But 17-11, 49ers won that game. Hurts did have 82 yards rushing in that game. I had Philly on a teaser, got a little bit lucky to win that teaser, game obviously easily went under. I think it was under in that game, as well. But I’m going to go over here, and here’s some of the reasons why. I’ve talked about this a couple of times this year when it’s applied. Hurts now as a favorite, he is 11 and one straight up as a home favorite.
They’ve gone over those games nine out of those 12 games. One of those games was week 18 against the Giants. I almost throw that game out just simply because he wasn’t right yet. It was his first game back after the injuries. He’s nine, two, and one against the spread in those games, and they’ve won every one of those games by six points or more. The one loss, of course, was to Washington on Monday night this year where the Redskins ran the ball a lot in that game and really controlled the line of scrimmage. Their average win has been by 13 points. They’ve scored 21 or more points in every single one of those games. So, I think Philly’s going to be able to score here. And one of the things that we’ve talked about, I’ve mentioned a few times, we’ve seen people be able to throw a little bit on San Francisco.
We’ve seen that a little bit. And San Francisco has only played two teams this year that are both top 10 in rushing offense and passing offense. That was Kansas City, who laid 44 on them, and Jarrett Stidham and your Las Vegas Raiders, who laid 34 on them. So, I think Philly’s going to be able to get some points here. And I think the real question in this game, both from aside and, obviously, me winning this total, is can San Francisco and Brock Purdy do enough? I mentioned this the last time I was on. I had my year wrong, but I said what San Francisco’s doing is very similar to what Ben Roethlisberger and Pittsburgh did, and then they lost in the AFC Championship game against New England.
I was thinking, for some reason, that year was like ’99 or 2000. It was actually 2004.
TJ Rives:
Yep.
Scott Kellen:
And then, I saw something this year. There’s four quarterbacks who have been rookie quarterbacks who have gone to the championship game. They’ve all lost. And I was looking at their stats, and I think maybe all of them, or three of the four, threw multiple interceptions.
TJ Rives:
Correct.
Scott Kellen:
And something like that will, obviously, what brings Purdy down in this game. But the fact that they’ve lost. Shaun King, 99, Tampa Bay. They lost that game, what, 12 to seven or something to the Rams.
TJ Rives:
11 to six. Lived that one.
Scott Kellen:
11 to six. Thank you.
TJ Rives:
I was not on a game call, but that’s the Kurt Warner late touchdown, and Shaun King was not very good in that game as a rookie, all of them on the road. You mentioned the Roethlisberger game, he threw three interceptions-
Scott Kellen:
Yes.
TJ Rives:
… that rookie year in that game-
Scott Kellen:
Yes.
TJ Rives:
… as well.
Scott Kellen:
Yeah. And they lost that game fairly bad like, 41-27. Then, you had Joe Flacco against the Ravens. They ended up losing that game by nine or 11 or something. But it was very close to the end, because I remember I had Pittsburgh laying points in that game. I think they got a pick six very late in the game. So, that game was a close game. So, I mention that as there’s a tall task here for Purdy. He’s, obviously, on a great team. But even these other quarterbacks who lost, they were in those games for the most part. Mark Sanchez against Indianapolis lost by 13 was the other one. So, here’s the other reason that I think San Francisco might be able to move the ball and score. Philly is a bottom 10 team, and I have, metrically speaking, 10th worst in the league against the run.
They haven improved the back half of the season when they added Suh and some other players on the defensive line. But when the 49ers have played a bottom 10 rushing team, they played five games this year. Three of them against Seattle, one against the Chargers, and one against the Raiders. They have a median of 23 points per game, and the rushing has been extremely consistent, 173 as an average yards rushing per game. If they can run the ball a little bit in this game, I think Purdy can have some success, as well. And it’s all going to be based on that. If they do that, I think San Francisco can get to 20 points, and I think that can get us to the over. Can San Francisco cover or not? I don’t know. But for those reasons, I like the over. And then, I’m going to go over George Kittle over three and a half receptions.
You have to lay some juice here minus 155. But since Brock Purdy started, Kittle was lying low for a while there. Purdy came on, and he started, and every game but one, Kittle has caught four or more passes. And if they get behind, I think that’s his safety valve. And Chris went under on the completions. I went under on 30 and a half attempts last week by Purdy. He threw 29. I would go under either one of those. My only worry about that is the game script here. If they get behind and they have to throw more, then I worry a little bit about that. Otherwise, I would be on either one of those unders, as well. So, officially for me, Kittle over the three and a half receptions, over the 46 and a half, I would not want to play 47. Such a key number. I’d prefer 46 and a half. Or I would pass and wait for a slow start in game, like Chris said, because I think that could happen and possibly get a better number in game, as well.
TJ Rives:
All right. We’re going to lock these guys in. Again, to the point, the rookie quarterback has been 0 and four the previous four times, all on the road, in this game. That’s what Purdy’s up against. All right. So, you see what Chris’s prop is, Purdy under on completions. Scott has got the over for the game total. We’ll keep going with their official plays and show it to you visually. Chris has got Jalen Hurts to be under 48 and a half rushing yards going against the 49er defense. Scott likes George Kittle to catch at least four balls in this game for the reasons he gave. And one more from Chris Farley.
And that is he likes under the total. So, the handicappers are on opposite sides for the reasons they gave in the NFC championship game. All right, let’s move on. One more game to handicap. That is the Bengals and the Kansas City Chiefs. They do it again. Same song, second verse. A year ago, won by Cincinnati in overtime at Arrowhead. It is a one point line now with the Chief’s favored, the total at 47 and a half. The most scrutinized ankle in all of North America belongs to Patrick Mahomes. What is up? How effective can he be? Let’s get some handicapping here on this rematch game. Scott Kellen, start us off. What do you like officially? Go.
Scott Kellen:
Yeah. So, we’ll go just back to that championship game. Team with the better defense defined by points allowed. They’ve covered 66 out of a hundred games, let’s just say that, since 1970. That falls with Cincinnati. If Mahomes was healthy in this game, I would favor Cincinnati, or sorry, Kansas City by four Points. If he doesn’t play at all, which I know is not going to happen, I would favor Cincinnati by four. It’s, I guess, another way of saying eight point difference between him and Chad Henne. I’m knocking off about three and a half points off that eight point difference. And so now, I would make the difference between Henne and Mahomes about four and a half points, which allows me to make Kansas City about a half point favorite in this game. I just like this Cincinnati team. First of all, Joe Burrow has only lost four games since the beginning of last year by more than three points.
Three of those games came against the Cleveland Browns, of all teams, which is just remarkable. One other game came against the Chargers last year. They’ve, obviously, defeated Kansas City three straight times.
TJ Rives:
Yep.
Scott Kellen:
And they were behind in two of those games, and they made terrific adjustments at halftime. The last game, it was a little bit more balanced. But they’ve also controlled the fourth quarter in all these games. And there’s something about Joe Burrow, first and foremost, and, obviously, he’s going up against Patrick Mahomes who also has the same “it” factor, if you will. But there is something about Burrow and just his ability to help and lead his team onto a victory, and he’s got three massive receivers that he can utilize. And I just think that is going to be troublesome as a whole for Kansas City, especially because, with Mahomes, the one thing I feel pretty sure about, I don’t think you’re going to get Mahomes scrambling a whole lot in this game.
Now, Andy Reid is remarkably smart. He is going to either have quick passes, he’s going to line up two or three tight ends and run off of that, and then throw off of that. Andy Reid’s a genius here, and he’s got Mahomes to work the magic. So, they’re going to find a way to do what they have to do. But I do think it’s going to be a little bit easier for Cincinnati to do defense because of that. And so, it just goes back to what I think Cincinnati brings from Joe Burrow and the receivers. Look, we worried about Cincinnati last week with the offensive linemen not being there. They’re probably not going to be there this week, as well. We’ve almost dismissed that. So, I think you have to be careful about that just simply because if we were worried last week, there’s every right to be worried this week with Chris Jones coming up the middle.
But at the end of the day, I like Cincinnati here. And by the way, in the second half, they ran the ball a lot more last week, Kansas City that is. That could happen again in this game, which, to me, just makes this game a little bit closer, as well, and just possibly gives Cincinnati a little bit better chance here, as well. So, better defense, a slight bit of value in my numbers. I’m going to ride it with Cincinnati in this game. And I do lean over 47 and a half. I played over 47. I don’t really want to play it at 47 and a half, so just a strong lean to the over, as well.
TJ Rives:
Very interesting. We’ve got a lot of interaction in the chat going on, as well, about this game. Again, Burrows beating the Chiefs all three times he’s played them in the last two years, including in this setting last year in the AFC title game. All right, Chris Farley, you are up. What is going to happen in game number two? Do the Bengals do this again at Arrowhead? Or does Kansas City get back in the Super Bowl for the third time in four years?
Chris Farley:
Well, first of all, I’ll say, and maybe it’s dumb on my part, but I’m really not giving Mahomes’ ankle situation that much attention. I mean, listen, high ankle sprain is a real deal injury. But the combination of Andy Reid’s play calling and creativity, Patrick Mahomes, I feel like he could stand on his head and throw a pass down the field. I mean, if there’s any quarterback that can get away with it, it’s probably him. And I just know, I mean, ever since week one really, ever since last year, right? Since Kansas City lost to these Bengals, it seems like Mahomes has had just a different mentality even than what we’re used to, right? Just locked in, ice-cold. And that’s my biggest factor in this game is, one, just the unstoppable nature of both of these quarterbacks lately. But I do think that Kansas City has some added motivation in this one, too.
So, I’ve got to look at taking advantage of both. First of all, both these quarterbacks, Burrow’s been nearly flawless since that embarrassing loss in week eight. I mean, only six interceptions, 21 touchdowns, obviously, 10 straight wins. But you could say the same theme about Patrick Mahomes, right? Since week 10, that loss against the Bengals, 13 touchdowns, four interceptions, and three interceptions were in that game against the Broncos. So really, it probably could have been a lot lower. That was just a weird game for him. Average QB rating of 105.6. So, these guys are coming into this game thinking they’re the best quarterback in the NFL. I think that juice right, that competition alone, creates a lot of positive production for both of these teams on offense. And one thing I love for Burrow on this one is just his consistent production. The last two games that they’ve faced Kansas City, only one sack on Joe Burrow. Kansas City knows that they have to do better in that regard, but they haven’t been very savvy in that category.
So, I think both of these quarterbacks are really going to succeed on Sunday. I think there’s going to be a lot of points in this one. I will say I think Kansas City, now, we’re seeing this on BetUS. It’s flipped. Kansas City’s the favorite. Some other books, it’s flipping. Just the added motivation that Kansas City and Patrick Mahomes must have heading into this game, not only as Joe Cool and Joe Burrow beat this team three straight times. Not only did they beat them in the AFC title game last year, so same exact situation, but now the Bengals are calling their stadium Burrow-head. It’s well documented. Kelsey is talking about it. The Chiefs are going to use that as motivation, and the Chiefs as underdogs at home. I mean, that just doesn’t happen, right? It happened against the Bills this season. I mean, that was a little bit of an anomaly, too, because, obviously, the Bills had revenge in their mind. But prior to that, January 3rd, 2021, and they sat all their starters in that game.
But Kansas City is just not home underdogs very often. I think that’s really going to fuel Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs even more. I do think the X-factor in this game is that Bengals offensive line and if they can keep on protecting Joe Burrow. But they’ve done a great job so far. So, my bets in this one, it’s probably obvious, going over the 47 and a half. Don’t like that we have that 0.5 there now. But in that last game, both quarterbacks played below their averages. They still scored 51 points in that one. I think this is the one that goes, maybe, over 30 for each team, just back and forth battle between two of the most elite. I think the first half is going to be higher scoring. You can get that at even money at BetUS, the first half being a higher scoring than the second half.
We’ve seen Lou Anarumo, I think his last name is. The way that he can adjust and game plan defensively in the second half, I do think the game will get tighter. We’ll see a little bit more defense in the second half. A look at what we’re seeing from these Bengals, right? Out the gate last week, 14-nothing. The Chiefs went up on the Jags pretty quickly, too, until Patrick Mahomes went out of that game. I think both offenses start off hot. So, I like the first half to be scoring higher. And Joe Burrow, under 0.5 interceptions.
This dude has only thrown, I have the stat here in front of me somewhere. Or I guess I don’t have the stat in front of. But I believe it’s two interceptions and six playoff games.
TJ Rives:
Wow.
Chris Farley:
He’s just playing really flawless football right now. And you get a little juice on that, but I think Joe Burrow’s going to continue to protect the ball, continue to get some protection behind his offensive line that just keeps on getting thrown together and succeeding. And again, we see a lot of points in this one. I would lean Kansas City because of all these motivational things we’re talking about. But again, wouldn’t be surprised by either team winning.
TJ Rives:
All right. Let’s lock them in officially. You will see the picks that Scott Kellen’s got the Bengals, Chris Farley likes the over. And then Chris has got two more plays. He likes a first half scoring total. The first half will be the higher scoring half. And then, he also likes the interception prop involving Joe Burrow. A couple of other quick nuggets. The last 10 years sample size, the home team in each conference is seven and three, 70% winning clip, for the home team in each conference championship game. The last time the two one seeds, in this case, Philadelphia and Kansas City, got home to the Super Bowl, that’s New England against Philadelphia, 2017 season, 2018 Super Bowl in Minnesota won by the Eagles. For whatever it’s worth, that’s the last time both one seeds won it. All right. Let’s recap. By virtue of two games remaining, there are all the picks.
Scott has got three of them, as you see on the screen. Chris has got six of them, going with several player props in the two games here. Scott has the only side taking the Bengals. And for what it’s worth, the host likes Kansas City and San Francisco to make the Super Bowl for the third time in their histories. How about the Bengals have only been in the Super Bowl three times. Twice they played San Francisco. This could potentially be a fourth Super Bowl trip and a third time to play the 49ers, and I think it’ll be the 49ers against the Eagles.
Guys, great job with all the handicapping today. Thank you for the time here. We say to the audience, thank you. Hit the like button. Make sure you’re subscribed. We’re, obviously, not here next week on Thursday because there’s no game yet. Super Bowl LVII, in two weeks will be back on Thursday. Scott, good luck. Chris, good luck. We appreciate both of you. Let’s see what happens with 49ers, Eagles, Bengals, and Chiefs. Guys, thank you. And thank you to Antonio and everybody at BetUS. Don’t forget to check out our sportsbook website. Good luck with your plays this weekend from the BetUS NFL Show.
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