X
Skip to content

NFL Divisional Playoff Round Picks | NFL Odds, NFL Divisional Playoff Round Predictions & Picks

Best Bets for the NFL Divisional Playoff Round

Matt Landes:

NFL divisional round field is set. Guys, we’ve got two doubleheaders coming up this weekend in two days, the one seed’s back in action. For a lot of fans, it’s the best NFL weekend of the year and Cris, I’ve got to think that’s music to your ears. Ready to turn the page from Wild Card Weekend. To paraphrase a recent Tweet of yours, thank goodness a blowout loss counts just the same as a bad beat.

Las Vegas Cris:

Yeah, that’s for sure. A loss is a loss and during the regular season and such, I think there’s a big difference between bad losses and good wins and such but you’re getting to the playoffs and you get these situations, it’s a little bit different, so you might as well just get blown out and it’s not indicative of how bad your handicap was at all because it’s an efficient market, so it feels bad and it stings and if you recommend games to other people, you feel bad about it. But there was extra factors that came involved that caused these teams to fall apart or play extra well and you’ve just got to move on from it and frankly, I’m just a lot better off not investing my time into a game that’s going to result in some bad beat or close loss. Move on, get to work on new stuff.

Matt Landes:

Yeah, to quote a former boss of mine, “A quick no is my second favorite answer,” that was certainly the case off and on Wild Card Weekend. Scott, if you had your pick between a bad beat or an instant blowout loss, what would you prefer in terms of, to Cris’ point, moving on and processing that result as well as possible?

Scott Kellen:

And first of all, Matt, I just saw a Tweet about Mattress Mack, who a lot of people know about, who comes in and bets quite a bit of money, hedging on his furniture show, bet online the Astros and I think he just did something with Alabama and apparently, Mattress Mack just lost 4.7 million, okay? It’s all relative obviously. He says, “You know how long it took me to get over it? Two seconds each. A gambler has to be resilient if anything, they knock you down and you got to get back up. A setback is just a setup for a comeback,” which is pretty good from him. But I think whether you lose a close game, which is very frustrating because you’re invested for three hours or you get blown out in the game where you can just stop watching halfway through the game, I think you just ask the question, what happened here? Is there something within my process that’s wrong? Or this just happens, right? This stuff happens. So I think you just try to figure that out more than anything. It’s a little bit easier to just get blown out obviously because like I said, you don’t have to invest yourself for three hours but the relevant question is just, what happened here, did I miss something? Or it’s just the variance that comes within a large sample size of games that you betting online on each year.

Las Vegas Cris:

It reminds me of what really is most important, is money management. I know people hate to hear it over and over again but just because the games are bigger and they’re more important, I’m not betting any different amounts on it, it’s just another game. So the bigger the game, the less value there is to be found. So you have to remember that and I’m sure we’ll touch base later on it, you’ve got to be looking at different markets, like the props and alternative NFL lines and other offerings, rather than just the main lines because there’s not as much value the bigger the games get.

Matt Landes:

Yeah and let’s keep exploring that theme a bit as we pull up a full screen graphic for our YouTube audience, showcasing our records year to date because Cris, as you touched on, at this time of the season, full game spreads and totals are razor-sharp, so it can be tough to find value. And to your point of not betting anymore in these bigger games, I often find myself betting a little bit less to try to align with what I perceive my edge to be and when we’re dealing with such an efficient market, what percentage of you guys’ portfolio would you say goes to bets like props and derivatives compared to the regular season when it might be a lot heavier on these full game sides and totals?

Las Vegas Cris:

Scott does a lot more on that than I do.

Scott Kellen:

Yeah, I would say, Matt, I don’t know the percentage but I know it was week 18 actually and I had a good week that week, so I just remember the numbers but I was 13 and five that week. And I’d have to say, just thinking back to the games I bet, no more than half of those were sides and totals, so the other stuff was all props. Now, this last week, I basically got average as far as sides and totals but I did not do nearly as well as on the prop bets and I’m just trying to think through some of the prop bets. Jeez, that might’ve been 50/50, maybe even 60% prop bets and obviously once we get to the Super Bowl a couple weeks from now, we’ll talk about all that but you got one side and one total and then the rest is all prop bets obviously at that point and that’s really where there’s potentially value typically. So yeah, you get to these playoffs, the books offer a lot more different props. It goes up quite a bit for me, just because all these games have them. But you got to be careful with props, they’re not easy, right?

Matt Landes:

Yeah and-

Las Vegas Cris:

I used to…

Matt Landes:

Go ahead, Cris.

Las Vegas Cris:

I used to just purposely ignore them because they would cause me problems with my accounts because when props started to become popular and if you did well on them, then you were risking drawing attention to your account and the book would think you’re taking advantage of them or something. So the limits were too low and the juice wasn’t worth the squeeze but I’ll tell you, in today’s day and age, now that everything’s more mainstream, I think it is important to start looking at these different bets. Alternative lines, props, anything that they offer, because now they’re more mainstream and the books feel more comfortable accepting those wagers, so the time is well spent to find these other derivatives.

Matt Landes:

Yeah, no shortage of options to get in play but for the crowd that likes a full game side and total, fortunately, we do have plenty of action across the weekend slate and we’ll get to that in just a moment. First off, for those of you with us on YouTube, I want to make a quick request. Please take a moment to give us a thumbs-up, subscribe to the channel, jump in that chat and on that note guys, let’s hit the slate with the divisional round, starting with game one of the Saturday doubleheader, the Bengals at the Titans. Tennessee currently laying three and a half at BetUS, total of 47. Cris, you on a side in this one? That’ll be a common theme throughout this show, why don’t you let us know who you like in Bengals Titans?

Las Vegas Cris:

I’m going to go with the team that’s covered the spread six out of the last seven times they’ve met, I’m going with the Cincinnati Bengals. I’ve got to admit though, they looked really bad against the Raiders, so it is a little bit of a concern but as we see from week to week, these teams are professionals. And yeah, maybe you might be in Arizona and you no-show five out of the last six weeks or something but most teams that are good can survive a bad game like they did, because that was a bad game with the Raiders. The Raiders just shot themselves in the foot as many times as possible, so the Bengals survived playing a bad game, they got their feet wet in the playoffs.

Las Vegas Cris:

I worry about some defensive line injuries that they had and whether all these guys are going to be able to play but they’ve got other people to step in. And obviously Tennessee’s getting a little healthier, Henry’s back, they’re getting a couple of other people back but three and a half points is a lot of points in a playoff game and anything can happen. And teams coming off the bye can be rusty and there are a few things like that that go in the Bengals’ favor. So I just think it’s just too much, anything over a field goal in this matchup, I think these teams are too close in talent and I don’t see that much of an advantage for Tennessee.

Matt Landes:

I do see quite an edge for Tennessee here and in fact, in the comments section for last week’s video, I went ahead and noted going in play on Tennessee, minus three at minus 120 at the time. I would make my ceiling Titans laying three and a half at even money, so not necessarily going head-to-head with you, Cris, at this price point. But that said, in a couple of different cases, I felt like you were maybe making my handicap a little bit for me. I’d like to dig in a bit on the health factor with these teams. The Titans, just about at full strength, the Bengals… Joe Mixon, as a Lakers fan, I’m reminded of Anthony Davis, where it’s such a good player but every time he goes down, you’re just holding your breath because it looks like he may be out for the year.

Matt Landes:

So I question how much he can shoulder the load for the Bengals’ ground game in this one and then defensibly, Cris, you touched on it, across the line, two defensive tackles likely out for this one, including their leader in tackles for a loss and their best run stopper. And then off the edge, Trey Hendrickson, 14 sacks this year, it made a huge impact in the Raiders game, his status is up in the air and that just seems like rough timing heading into this matchup, going up against Derrick Henry returning to action, the Titans’ ground game after the Titans… Or excuse me, the Bengals just got gassed for 7.4 yards per carry against the Raiders. So Cris, with this matchup specifically and those health factors, how does that factor into your thinking on the Bengals?

Las Vegas Cris:

I just got to just pray, pray. It all factors in but you’re talking about… These are full teams and they know what these issues are going in. It’s a lot different when these things happen mid game and things go awry than being able to practice for a week and prepare for these situations. So with that in mind, those adjustments are easier to make than on the fly when they’re happening during the game as they did last week. So it is what it is and these teams have played 17 games and they have produced certain stats and data and trends and I just barely favor Tennessee and I just hope that the points come into play.

Matt Landes:

Yeah, sticking with the numbers and I can’t fault that systematic approach, even if it lands us on different sides in this one. Another notion I wanted to touch on in this game that has me looking the Titans’ way, I know that situational spots can be overblown across a lot of the sports media landscape but in this case, it’s pretty extreme for the Titans. Just one road game since the week before Christmas and now, they’re coming in off of their second bye in less than two months. Meanwhile for the Bengals, this will just be their second time leaving Ohio since before Thanksgiving, so I’m curious for Cris or Scott, you as well, what you think about the Bengals possibly being fresh because of a lot of home cooking recently and possibly being overrated because they’ve been in friendly confines and that doesn’t look to be the case this weekend.

Scott Kellen:

Well, yeah, they should be fresh obviously but all of a sudden, you go on the road in this hostile environment, it’s the playoffs, home-field means a little bit more, especially for teams in this round I think, coming off of bye. It could be almost a sticker shock for them early on and then you combine that with… They don’t have a great offensive line in Cincinnati and Tennessee’s pass rush is pretty decent recently. That could add a lot of pressure on Burrow as well and just make it a little bit difficult to navigate from that standpoint too. So yeah, going on the road, it might be one of those games where they’ve got to just survive early on and then once they survive and get into the game, maybe they can play their game but I think survival early on could be something that’s important for them because they haven’t faced us a lot recently.

Las Vegas Cris:

I think all the pressures are in Tennessee, there’s high expectations for them and they’ve got no excuses with everybody coming back. So the pressure’s on them, people aren’t expecting too much from Cincinnati but Burrow has demonstrated that he’s probably going to be an elite quarterback, so he’s got a game of playoff experience behind him and they get a chance to collect their thoughts and concentrate and prepare for the situation that they have.

Matt Landes:

Cris, when you talk about the pressure being on Tennessee, my mind first goes to the fact that we’ve seen them win games on this stage and even on bigger stages in recent years. They were in the AFC title game in Kansas City just a couple years ago, so do you think the pressure on them in this case could really hamper their performance or do you just see that as a natural part of being the one seed, taking on a team like the Bengals that people haven’t been too fond of for much of the season?

Las Vegas Cris:

Well, I think it can come from any direction, as Scott referenced, you get off to a rough start and you can get a domino effect. That’s what happened to the Raiders, that’s what happened to Arizona. You just get off to these rough starts and something just snaps and the aura and the energy changes and the benefacting team gains confidence and the team’s screwing up, starts to get embarrassed and pressured. There’s a lot of pressure with being that number one seed coming off that bye, you have no excuses for anything. You’re supposed to mow this team down and the Bengals know that. So I’m not a psychologist enough to predict how these teams are going to play but we’ve seen it 100 times, how just teams can really gain strength or fall apart based on a few bad plays or a few situations and they just don’t recover or they never look back.

Matt Landes:

That reminds me of the last topic I have in mind for this game that has me looking the Titans’ way and Scott, I’ll be curious to get your thought at the end of this here but when it comes to variants, big plays early on that may have a major impact on the outcome of this game, I think there might be a pendulum swing in line for the Bengals because last week, Cris, you touched on it, yes they won that game. They won it by a touchdown in fact but they lost yards per play, they went plus two in turnovers, plus three if we include failed fourth bounds. In the red zone, the Raiders offense just went one for five, that’s 20% compared to the league average of 60% and I’m really curious about this red zone angle because the Titans, number six in the league in the red zone this year, 64% of those drives converting to touchdowns.

Matt Landes:

Last year, they were number two at 74%, the year before that, they led the league at 77%, so I know that the red zone can be very impactful but also, not very predictive at times. It seems like the Titans have some good pieces to really capitalize on their red zone opportunities though. Scott, I know throughout the season you’ve talked about areas like red zone drives, there might be a league average but that’s not necessarily the same as the baseline for a team. The Titans for three years now have shown to be quite efficient in that area of the field.

Scott Kellen:

Yeah, there’s variants and I think maybe in the preseason, we even talked about maybe Tennessee, Matt, maybe Green Bay, having some regression to the mean in some of that because they were higher than what we typically see. But I was reminded by a gambler a couple of years ago, he was talking about someone who had bad luck, I’m like, “Yeah but that’s not going to continue year after year,” he’s like, “You can have it for a number of years,” right? Bad luck can hit you for more than just a year and the same thing here. You could have good success from a red zone standpoint for a couple years. We talk about teams that win close games regress to the mean but that can still happen for a couple years and then it regresses. You don’t always know exactly when it’s going to regress, so you know it’s probably coming but that’s the difficult thing whenever you speak about regressing, you’re not quite sure when it’s going to start showing its face and actually doing that.

Matt Landes:

Well, I will keep my fingers crossed that the Titans can keep this up at least one more week. If the line trickles back down again, I can endorse a play on the Titans, laying no more than three and a half per even money or a juicy minus three, minus 120. As things stand right now however, we’ve got Cris on the Bengals at a flat plus three and a half and with that, let’s move on to the nightcap on Saturday-

Scott Kellen:

Hey…

Matt Landes:

Oh, go ahead, Scott.

Scott Kellen:

Matt, let me just add on just a couple of other points I had in this game. I have no play, I make the number where it’s at, so no opinion there but I think if Tennessee dominates the offense and defensive line, it could be hard for Cincinnati. But I think the other problem for Tennessee, they play things pretty close to the vest for the most part, whereas Cincinnati will be more aggressive and gamble, now, that can go both ways for you but Tennessee just seems to play closer games in general. Cincinnati this year, at home against both what I would consider as above average offense and defensive teams, lost by three to Green Bay, lost by three to San Francisco, beat Kansas City by three. Now, those are all home games but they played all those teams very, very tight and close. Tennessee has since… And I spoke about this a few weeks ago, this was when Tennessee was a much bigger favorite but since Tannehill got there, as the home favorite, their only home favorite wins by more than four points, they beat Jacksonville by 22, they don’t count.

Scott Kellen:

They beat Houston, who won four games last year by six, they don’t count. They beat Chicago by seven last year, it’s a playoff team but not a great team, they beat Detroit by 21. This year, they did beat Indianapolis by nine, they beat Jacksonville by 20, spanked Miami a few weeks ago by 31. So their wins by distance are all, for the most part, against bad teams other than Indianapolis but the one team that’s on the same level of Cincinnati I would say, that Tennessee has played this year, is Indianapolis, beat them by nine, beat them by three on the road, so they handle their business. To me, this is what makes this line a little bit trickier, it’s such a short line that Cincinnati’s got to be very good to win this game I think. But Tennessee, like I said, Vrabel’s fairly conservative I think and he’ll play things close to the vest, which will always potentially give Cincinnati an option to be in this game as well I think.

Las Vegas Cris:

Yeah and Burrow’s stats are just so much better than Tannehill’s too. He’s done 15 more touchdowns than Tannehill and we know that the Tennessee offense is sputtered at times and working Henry back into that lineup, immediately all systems go, that usually doesn’t happen. There’s usually an adapt and getting back into play mode.

Scott Kellen:

And they weren’t a great rushing team with or without Henry really this year. You defense the team differently because he’s in there but they were not a great rushing team. Different teams last year but remember, Cincinnati beat Tennessee 31 to 20, it was in Cincinnati, Cincinnati’s defense was not as good last year as they are this year, different teams but Cincinnati knows they can beat this team.

Matt Landes:

Yeah. Moving onto another underdog that I think has plenty of confidence in its opponent this weekend, that nightcap on Saturday, the Niners taking on the Packers at Lambeau. Currently Green Bay favored by six with reduced juice at BetUS, total, 47 and a half. And Cris, in this one, it sounds like you and I are seeing eye to eye, why don’t you break down the side that we’re on first?

Las Vegas Cris:

This is pretty simple. This is the one match Green Bay didn’t want to have, we’ve got problems with San Francisco’s health because Bosa’s in the concussion protocol and we’ve got a problem with Garoppolo’s shoulder now, in addition to his thumb. So those are all points of concern but there are people to step in but this was not the matchup Green Bay wanted because San Francisco likes to run the ball. They like to run the ball a lot and that is the Achilles’ heel of Green Bay, they generally don’t stop the run. So Green Bay’s got an advantage on their side with the weakened secondary of San Francisco a little bit too but nevertheless, San Francisco should have some success here and they’re experienced, they have a lot of… I’ve heard people say that it’s a big disadvantage that they’ve been traveling so much lately and played so many road games and now this is the second game in a row where they’ve had to come up big. They had to come up big just to get into the playoffs, they had to come up big last week. At some point, these teams peter out.

Las Vegas Cris:

But I also look at it from the viewpoint of, hey, when you’re on the road, you don’t have those family distractions, it’s get down to business and if they were going to really have a letdown, I think it would have been last week after the way they got into the playoffs and Garoppolo was mentioning that they left it all out onto the field. So I think that that bodes well and it’s good. And again, this is a situation where they have all week to prepare, they know who’s going to be in, who’s not and they can prepare. But we’ve talked about it in the past, Green Bay on the metric side of things is an anomaly and they just don’t measure up. They some way, somehow just do what they have to do. Like we were talking about, where you’re shooting pool, you just put the balls in when you finally can and you just bang them around until you can and that’s what Green Bay does because the metrics, believe it or not, favor Green Bay… I mean San Francisco and I’m not on my own island-

Matt Landes:

Favors outright you’re saying?

Las Vegas Cris:

Yeah, outright. So I’m not on my own island, I’ve heard other people say the same thing. If you’re only factoring in metrics before you get to home-field and before you factor in your other variables but metrics alone, San Francisco’s the better team. So for six points not to be value here, I don’t know where you’re coming up with seven points of adjustments. So that’s why I’m going to stick with San Francisco here.

Matt Landes:

Yeah. Not to be too redundant in any of the points that you made between the Niners’ matchup edgers and the run game, some health concerns but nevertheless, still seeing value on San Francisco. Maybe one of the factors that is drawing some interest for Packers backers, another game with an extreme spot, this is the Niners’ fourth road game in five weeks and Cris, as you outlined, your point about sometimes being on the road not necessarily being a bad thing, I’m reminded of one of my favorite Yogi Bear quotes when he was asked about the key to a long, successful marriage, he said, “Long road trips.” So maybe the Niners can keep that rolling in their favor this week. This is however their 14th straight week with a game, they drew an early season bye and the first 18 week regular season and then for the Packers, a lot of parallels to the Titans, just one road game since the week before Christmas, coming off their second bye in less than two months. So as much as there could be some matchup edges for the 49ers, when we see a spot this extreme, do either of you put that much stock into it?

Scott Kellen:

As far as the rest for Green Bay?

Matt Landes:

Yeah, the rest versus Green Bay and some possible fatigue for the 49ers going head-to-head there.

Scott Kellen:

Well, let’s just talk about the road trips. Playoff teams playing at least their third straight away game, which is the 49ers, they’re four, 25 and two against the spread. Now, does that mean San Francisco can’t cover this game, can’t win this game? Absolutely not, you got the matchups that Cris spoke about but that is real, teams are going to their third strike game on the road in the playoffs, obviously there’s carryover to the regular season, they played out the Rams last week at Dallas, that is not a favorable position for teams. Now, the spread’s a great equalizer, maybe the spread’s a little bit higher because people know that, all that stuff shakes out over the long run, right? And that’s for everyone to find out after they’ve played the game.

Scott Kellen:

But fatigue has in the past played into this and Green Bay, there’s not a ton of home-field advantages around the league, Green Bay’s probably one that has a little bit more home-field advantage as well. And by the way, the rest is great for Green Bay, Bakhtiari played a little bit in week 18, left tackle, all pro left tackle. Jaire Alexander, cornerback, I think he played a little bit in week 18, he’ll probably play as well. And then maybe they get Za’Darius Smith back, who’s a pretty good run stop perform but with all three of those guys coming back, you still don’t know what you’re getting from those guys, just like the Derrick Henry thing, we don’t know what we’re getting. Are we getting 50% of what they were? Are we getting 90%? That’s a huge question mark, they’re all three all pro players but what you’re getting from them if they play, that’s a complete nother question.

Las Vegas Cris:

Yeah and I remember the Rams going into Green Bay last year and Darnell’s playing and somebody else is playing and they were supposedly healthy and halfway through the quarter, you realize, I’m screwed, these guys aren’t healthy, why did they even play them? It’s the same way when they put the Saints in with Brees last year in the playoffs, why are they playing these people? So a lot of these teams make big mistakes putting injured players in at lower than 100% or a reasonable efficiency level.

Matt Landes:

Speaking of that, what do you guys make of the conditions for this one for Jimmy G? We’ve seen him, since returning from the thumb injury, start two games indoors and now it looks like we’re facing temperatures in teens at Lambeau Field, is that much of a factor in either of you guys’ handicaps?

Scott Kellen:

Well, the interception he threw last week, I forget exactly what he said but there’s something with the hand, maybe just didn’t grip it correctly, I’m not sure. I don’t know what the hand injury… How any weather might impact that. It’s another game, they’re going to run the ball a lot, a lot, right? And that’s what they do, Shanahan’s very creative with that stuff, that stuff should not impact him at all. I only think it impacts him if, for some reason, that injury and the cold weather has an impact, which I have no idea on. But otherwise, I think he’ll be okay. San Francisco to me is the better team but Cris, we’ve spoke about this, where the Green Bay metrics are not great. Tampa Bay, for years and years and years with Brady and Belichick, outplayed their numbers all the time.

Las Vegas Cris:

Patriots.

Scott Kellen:

Huh?

Las Vegas Cris:

Patriots, yeah.

Scott Kellen:

Yeah, with the Patriots. Yeah, sorry, with the Patriots. Which was just crazy, if you think about it, there’s 20 years and they’re hitting 60% against the spread and everyone knows how good they have been forever and Tampa Bay just outplayed it. That is, to a degree, a little bit of Aaron Rodgers and LaFleur’s a pretty good coach. And look, they haven’t had anyone on this offensive line all year and they don’t miss a beat. They’ve got one receiver basically, they don’t miss a beat. I don’t think you can discount Rodgers versus Garoppolo. Now, the last time I said Rodgers isn’t going to make mistakes and the other guy is was Jameis Winston in week one against New Orleans, Rodgers threw two picks, Winston threw none, right? So knock on wood, careful what I say but I think Garoppolo will probably make some mistakes, it’s just hard to believe Rodgers will. And I think that’s a little bit tougher to overcome as well.

Matt Landes:

Understood. I know that Scott is the Packers fan among the three of us but I think objectively, that’s a very fair point. So if anybody has trepidation on the Niners, that’s got to be a big reason why, when we look at who’s under center for both teams and with that, I think we can move on, guys, to Sunday-

Scott Kellen:

And Matt, Matt-

Matt Landes:

Oh, go ahead, Scott. I’ll stop interrupting you.

Scott Kellen:

Yeah. No, no, sorry. Just one other point, I would not play Green Bay at six. If I had another team to tease them with, which I don’t think I do right now, I would play Green Bay in a teaser. One last point here… Well, two last points, we mentioned this last week, add another win here, Garoppolo now 10 and three against the spread as a road dog versus teams that are above average on both offense and defense, so they’re going against good teams, they cover the numbers at dog. A lot of that Shanahan system, right? And then Garoppolo’s there just leading it but it’s a very creative… The thing I would worry about with Green bay, as the home favorite under LaFleur now, which is three years, they’ve played a lot of fairly easy teams for the most part.

Scott Kellen:

So home favorite versus above average and offense and defensive teams. They beat Minnesota by five in 2019, lost to Tampa Bay last year by five. So they haven’t played a lot of super, good quality teams at home and even when they have, they’ve either lost or been very close. They did vastly outplay from the line of scrimmage, San Francisco in that 30 to 28 win this year on the road. So at the line of scrimmage, they broke it, they sacked Garoppolo four times, Rodgers got sacked once. But winning by distance, that’s a tough thing unless Garoppolo of course starts turning the ball over, then Green Bay’s probably going to cover this number.

Las Vegas Cris:

That six points is a lot of points-

Scott Kellen:

A lot of points.

Las Vegas Cris:

For a team of San Francisco’s caliber as far as I’m concerned.

Scott Kellen:

I agree. Especially if they have all their guys playing, if they’re heathy. They need Bosa, that’s a big piece there, right? And Warner but yes.

Las Vegas Cris:

Yeah and it sounds like they’re trending towards playing, so we’ll see what this line does over the next few days but to Cris’ point about this being a big number, it’s the biggest number on this divisional round slate and we will get to two more games on Sunday in just a moment but let’s call a quick time-out now to issue a friendly reminder to the YouTube audience, give us a thumbs-up, subscribe to the channel, continue to jump in that chat and with that, guys, let’s move on to Sunday. The first game in the doubleheader on that date would be the Rams at the Bucks, Tampa Bay laying three at even money at BetUS, total 48 and a half. And Scott, so that I don’t preemptively move on from this game before you’re done, let’s start with you this time, you’re involved in both a side and a total.

Scott Kellen:

Yeah, I’m playing Tampa Bay here. Look, my number’s six in this game, the line’s three, so I’m playing the value. You’re getting Tom Brady at home, laying three points. Rams, pretty good team, pretty well coached team but they’re all over the place up and down. I just have confidence that Tom Brady at the end of the day is going to win this game. So I’m laying three, if I never say six, there’s value there. As far as a total, Rams, 10 and three to the over as road dogs under McVay, so what’s that tell me? We know the Rams have been good just about every year that he’s been there. They go on the road, they’re playing a team that is supposed to be superior to them, so they’re giving up points to those teams because that team is pretty good and they’re obviously very well schemed in offense, so there’s scoring points as well. You get a lot of points. Rams this year versus good teams, where it’s home or the road, 27-24, that’s 51 points.

Scott Kellen:

They beat Tampa Bay, 34-24, 58 points. That was a total of 55 earlier this year in L.A., now we’re down to this much of a lower total, that’s a big difference, especially when they exceeded that number the first time they played. They scored 57 the first time against Arizona, 64 at Green Bay, 53 and a total again against Arizona. We know the other night, it was only 45 points last night. 53 to a good offensive team in Minnesota and 51 against San Francisco a couple weeks ago. That thing was probably going way under and it got crazy at the end and then 27-24 here last year against Tampa, 51 points again. I make the number 51 and a half, I think we got a little bit of value here and for Tampa Bay as a home favorite with Brady against good teams, 61 versus the Rams last year, 60 versus Dallas this year, 60 versus Buffalo this year, it was an overtime game to get there, I get that but this seems like a pretty low total for two teams that are probably going to throw the ball a lot, two quarterback second can really throw the ball fairly well. I think it’s a low total, given what both these teams are capable of.

Matt Landes:

And Scott, I’m with you on one of those two plays, on the Bucks minus the three, I’ll note that even money for laying the field goal is my price ceiling in this one but one thing that gives me pause on the side that would also probably give me some trepidation with the total, Tampa Bay now looking at a cluster injury situation along the offensive line, all pro right tackle, Tristan Wirfs, it sounds like he might be a game time decision. Center right in Jensen, a Pro Bowler in his own right, also his status up in the air right now. So when it comes to the Bucks’ banged up offensive line and we know what the Rams’ defensive line can bring to the table, does that give you any pause looking at this game to go over 48 and a half.

Las Vegas Cris:

It gives me a little pause, probably more so on the Tampa bay side again but again, I would go back to, Brady just figures it out. It was windy in that game last week, you would never know it was windy with Brady. Now, they did get sacked a few times and I have a feeling Jensen will play because he finished that game, the guy’s a warrior, so I think he’ll play. Wirfs, a little bit different story and they brought in Josh Wells, who had a bad hamstring I believe. He struggled through that game, if he can’t go, they’re probably moving their right guard over and bringing someone in to play right guard, that could be a little bit more problematic obviously with the Rams and they’re capable of putting together a pass rush but Brady and Rodgers, they’re so damn good, they just figure that out. So I still think they’ll be okay from a total standpoint. I’d probably have a little bit more trepidation because my number would come down if Wirfs is out. There’d still be value in Tampa but obviously much less value.

Matt Landes:

Yeah and Cris, if you made my Titans handicap for me as part of your breakdown on that game when outlying your Bengals side, I’ll do the same for you here because you were on the Rams and even though I’m on the Bucks, the Tampa injury situation, definitely a cause for concern. I recall touching on it in the division preview with the Bucks being so healthy last year and injuries potentially being their undoing down the stretch this season. It was probably massive down the stretch when they were shorthanded at wide receiver and now of course, we can add an offensive line cluster situation to the mix but the last month, the Bucks have drawn the Eagles, the Panthers twice and the Jets. So we’ve got to think it’s a step up, Cris, to take on a Rams defense, bringing Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey to the fold.

Las Vegas Cris:

Well, let’s not forget that Brady hasn’t even beaten the Rams in both of these years against the spread, the Rams have covered both times against Brady, so they’re not intimidated and they’ve had success against Brady and what’s up with OBJ? He looks intense, he’s-

Matt Landes:

Throwing the ball well these days.

Las Vegas Cris:

A lot of people commented, “Oh my gosh, we get that guy, the sky is the limit.” So the Rams are going to go as Stafford goes and he’s got the monkey off his back, he got his playoff victory and they’ve had success against Tampa and as you mentioned, those crap teams that they were playing at the end of the season, metrically, Tampa was near the bottom of the league against those bad teams. So playing those bad teams might’ve very well camouflaged more serious problems. And I don’t love this game by any means but actually have a Tampa Bay future, to win the NFC… But I just can’t ignore it, I actually have the Rams as the slightly better team, by less than a half a point and I don’t think that the home-field covers it and so that’s why I’m going to go with the Rams, I think Stafford has the experience and the team is gelling together. And I know Tampa played very well last week but what was the real competition there? Did they beat a good team or were the Eagles pretenders all along?

Matt Landes:

Yeah. Well, just like it’s a step up for the Bucks in this case, I also don’t want to ignore the fact that it has the makings of a step up for the Rams as well, we saw Kyler Murray making his first playoff start last night and he certainly looked the part, we can bet that Brady is not going to give the Rams that many beaks. That one yard pick-six was one for the books. So on the Rams’ defensive side, I know I touched, Cris, on Aaron Donald, Jalen Ramsey bringing some star power to the fold but I feel like if Tom Brady can do anything well and he does a hell of a lot of things well, it’s identifying the weak link of a team’s defense and the Rams, really shorthanded at safety last night, that didn’t come into play. If they can’t get a couple of guys back, Jordan Fuller, their play caller, as well as Taylor Rapp, not only getting them back but getting them back at damn near full strength, that might pose some issues if the Bucks can find any way to get on the same page with some receivers who are pretty newly introduced to this offense.

Las Vegas Cris:

Maybe, maybe, maybe, I’m just looking at current form and I’m looking at a team that when you really look at it, they really over performed last year to win the Super Bowl, we talked about their turnover ratio being… I think they were plus 10 or 11 or 12 in turnovers to win that Super Bowl, to make that Super Bowl run and everything just went their way. They weren’t expected to do that well but because they were a Super Bowl team in the Tom Brady aura, Tampa Bay, we’re getting extra value here. I’m telling you, people are scared to bet against Tampa Bay and Tom Brady. So we’ve talked about his ATS success rate over the years but I just really feel that it’s come full circle and there’s some value here.

Matt Landes:

Scott, I’m feeling ready to move on to the next game but I know I’ve already gotten in your way twice.

Las Vegas Cris:

Yeah, interrupt now.

Matt Landes:

Am I stepping on any toes or you want to talk AFC?

Scott Kellen:

Oh, one… No, I’m just kidding, go ahead.

Matt Landes:

All right, let’s get to it. Perhaps the marquee game on a marquee slate this weekend, the Bills at the Chiefs. Again, an AFC Championship game rematch, we’re getting it a week early this year. Chiefs laying two and a half with reduced vig at BetUS, total 55. Scott, let’s kick it off with you once again, another game involved on the side and the total.

Scott Kellen:

Yeah, similar to the Tampa Bay one here, I’m taking Kansas City, I would take them at two and a half or better and I’m playing the over. The Kansas City one, I’ll keep that one fairly simple, in that again, I’m just showing value with my numbers, they’ve been pretty good. Well, actually with both these teams this year for the most part, especially Kansas City. So I’m going to take Kansas City at home, laying less than a field goal and like I said, my numbers are showing value. From a total standpoint, my numbers say 55, so I don’t have any value in the number for this total but the way this game is going to play out I think just speaks to this being high scoring. Buffalo’s not really looking to run the ball here, Allen can pick up big chunks of the yardage with his arm and his running ability. Mahomes can do the same.

Scott Kellen:

Looking back in that game they played earlier this year, Allen ran for 59 yards, Mahomes ran for 61 yards, so they both can pick up yards on the ground. And then just looking at Josh Allen, this is very similar to the Rams. Josh Allen as a road dog, now six and over, same thing here. They’re going on the road, the other team maybe is perceived to be the superior team because they’re a favorite, so Buffalo gives up their points but they’re certainly capable of scoring points as well. In those six games, they’ve totally 62, 58, 62, 58, 60 and 54 points and that 54 point game was at New England a few weeks ago and that’s a New England offense that’s so-so, which you’re not going to run into here with Kansas City. The 58 this year in Kansas City between these two, where Buffalo steamrolled them 38 to 20 and last year, Kansas City beat them in the AFC Championship game 38 to 24.

Scott Kellen:

So again, these teams are going to score points and Mahomes in the playoffs of seven point or less home favorites, they’ve scored 31, 31, 35, 38 points. Andy Reid’s not going to take his foot off the gas, especially against this Buffalo team that he knows is certainly very, very capable obviously of scoring a lot of points and Buffalo’s going to do the same thing. So I see a lot of points being scored, this is a high total obviously and as Cris always says and I agree, if things don’t go well early on, you’re going uphill here. But shoot, things weren’t going very well for a quarter and a half against Pittsburgh and they still ended up with 63 points. So these teams are explosive, it’s a high total, no value with my number but I think the way the game will play, I think we’ll get to 55 based on what these guys have done previously against similar type of competition.

Matt Landes:

God, as far as the Chiefs’ side goes, you’ve touched on the Bills, certainly a formidable opponent here, their offense, it’s a word I rarely use but it might be safe to call them perfect last weekend. First team ever not to punt, kick a field goal, turn the ball over or fail on a fourth down. Seven drives, seven touchdowns, excluding kneel downs at the end of the game. And to translate that, they got every yard available to them and the circumstances, they were playing a good New England defense in really rough conditions with the temperature in the negative degrees, factoring in the windchill. So when I think about what the Bills did last week, I want to know how that factors into this handicap for you, Scott and I’ll toss it back to you in the form of a quote from our friend, Las Vegas Cris, in last week’s show, he was talking about Matthew Stafford, I think we can apply it to Josh Allen. “The pinpoint accuracy was incredulous, there’s no possible way he can do it again.”

Scott Kellen:

Well, you know what’s funny? You got to be careful because what did Josh Allen do in the two games before last week’s game against New England? They were horrible, right? Now, I don’t know if that was weather related but they were playing some… Especially the Jets, a fairly bad team defensively and they were horrendous. I think you’ve got to be careful on both sides of this. I don’t know, were they doing something else scheme wise? they needed to win those games, so I don’t think they were taking it easy or anything like that. Maybe it was just more so weather. Allen’s good though, man, I’ll tell you, that one pass he threw against New England about 40 yards down the field into the corner of the end zone for a touchdown, that reminded me of Brett Favre to Sterling Sharpe in ’94 against Detroit.

Scott Kellen:

That arm is incredible, he can do a lot of things and that’s why I like this over too. That guy can get you a score in three or four plays moving down the field like that, that arm is that good. Is he that good, is Buffalo that good? No and they’re clearly not nearly as bad offensively as they were in the games leading up to that game last week but don’t move the ball. Look, if Buffalo wins this game, I am not surprised one iota at all. And I think Allen’s grown up here a little bit with some of these games that he’s played in key situations but I’m still taking the home team laying less than the field goal.

Matt Landes:

Fair enough, when I thought of what to do with Buffalo after last Saturday, it would’ve been almost impossible to think… You don’t want to bet on them at any number but Scott, you’ve already said it once on this show, the point spread can be the great equalizer and also, this matchup. On Sunday night the Chiefs’ offense wasn’t that much worse, especially once they got the turnovers out of their system. They had a red zone interception in the first half, a fumble six, still covered Cris’ minus seven for the first half, thanks to a late touchdown. And I think the Chiefs might be the Bills’ first opponent in a while that could potentially magnify the absence of Tre White because the Bills’ last five matchups, twice against the Patriots, once against the Jets, Falcons and Panthers, so this is quite the step up in class for them as well. Cris, what do you make of this one? Big AFC Championship game rematch?

Las Vegas Cris:

Well, it’s also a rematch of an earlier season meeting where Buffalo went into Kansas City and won by almost three touchdowns, that was a game that we were on with Buffalo, it was one of the strongest plays of the year. It’d be nice to be getting a field goal in this game but unfortunately, I don’t think we’re going to see that. Again, I’m concerned when you see a team that goes seven for seven and just everything goes their way, what happens the following week? So that’s a little bit of a concern with Buffalo also but I honestly think Buffalo has a little bit more firepower. I think as you said, Matt, Allen can move that ball fast and I believe he’s going to run more than Mahomes is going to run, so I think that their offense is slightly a little bit more dangerous and Kansas City capitalized on bad Pittsburgh, we don’t really know.

Las Vegas Cris:

We know Kansas City finished the season well and they were on a role and I don’t disrespect that and I’m not pooh-poohing it but Buffalo’s turning it on a little bit here and I know they played a little bit of a weaker schedule but I just think that Buffalo, you got to take the points here. I have Buffalo the better team, I don’t know how much to subtract for the strength of schedule difference and to factor that in. And let’s look at it frankly too, Kansas City started the season struggling until they found their way, so that’s another factor. So it’s really marginal. I’ll repeat what I said before, the playoffs, you’re only going to find so much value and it’s not going to be much and this is the game, in my opinion, that has the least value but I’ve got to lean Buffalo’s way here.

Matt Landes:

When we look at the value for this point spread, I feel like it’s a rare case of a really short number but a high degree of variance in the sense that we’ve got a high total and to Scott’s point, the total might not be high enough. And if we look at DVOA, they’ve mentioned the Bills’ offense just turned in the second best performance they’ve tracked since 1983, I’d love to see what was better than that but at the same time, late in the season, DVOA had the Bills pegged as the most inconsistent team they’ve ever tracked. So with that in mind, would either of you guys be interested in an alternative line for a bigger payout, knowing that although this is a really short spread, not necessarily a surprise if a team wins by seven or 10 or perhaps even more?

Las Vegas Cris:

I spend all my time on alternative lines and looking at those to find weaknesses in them. It didn’t pan out last night but I played Arizona for a nice alternate line price. So certainly, you have to be looking at everything that is offered and try to see if that’s going to be a benefit for you because the likelihood of this… With these kind of offenses, of course one of these two teams can get blown out. We were all blowouts last week it seemed, so you’ve got to keep that in mind. You just can’t overpay for those alternate lines, a lot of those alternate lines could be completely and utter rip-offs, so be very careful.

Scott Kellen:

Yeah, I think first of all, back to that comment on the game earlier this year, no Chris Jones in that game, that matters a little bit obviously. No Charvarius Ward on quarterback. But to your point, Cris, they stopped them right? 38-20, the game really wasn’t close for a good part of that game. The one thing I’ve said about Buffalo that I didn’t like about Buffalo all year, it’s a pretty pass heavy team. So I like them when they get in these situation because they’re certainly capable of throwing the ball and scoring points, you saw that in the Tampa Bay game, they dominated the second half, got dominated in the first half but they just don’t run the ball a lot. Now, Allen makes up for that and shoot, the guy can run for 22 yards, he basically takes four strides and he’s there, it’s incredible. But I think Kansas City’s going to be able to run on Buffalo here a little bit.

Scott Kellen:

Buffalo against some of the better running teams this year gave up success rates of 59% to New England, 65% to Indianapolis and 57% to Kansas City. Now, they won two of those three games, so it certainly does not mean that they can’t win the game but I think Kansas City will be able to run the ball a little bit on this team, which hopefully will help him in the passing game as well and then Buffalo’s going to wing it. So on your alternate thing, shoot, yeah, somebody could win this game by seven points, it’s a high total. Like you always say, Matt, there’s a lot of variance with these high totals, right? Now, again, if you’re going seven and a half, okay, it gets a little bit trickier, right? But for someone to win the game by six or seven points, that’s not far-fetched at all, given just the nature of how this game’s probably going to play out.

Matt Landes:

Scott, one thing you mentioned that can transition into a question we have from our live audience for our Q&A, you touched on the Chiefs possibly running the ball pretty well on the Bills and it was surprising to see Jerick McKinnon making a pretty big appearance in that game against the Steelers. The question asking about any prop bets that we’re looking at early in the week, do you guys have a handle on who might be running the ball for the Chiefs this week against Buffalo? Maybe a look at somebody to go over the total if we can just figure out who’s going to get much of that workload.

Scott Kellen:

Oh, that’s tough. I don’t know, it’s early in the week, so I haven’t looked at that a lot to be fair. McKinnon I thought looked fantastic and remember, he was very good when he left Minnesota, went to San Francisco, got hurt, then he got hurt again the next year. We’ve barely seen him for whatever that’s been, three years or something, then out of the blue, here he comes and the guy looks phenomenal, he’s certainly rested. But I’d have to believe if their other, really first and second backs are back, assuming they’re healthy, either one, they’re going to get carries. I can’t believe that they’re not going to sit there. So that’s where it gets tough on the prop. First of all, most prop bets are probably better for the under than the over. So if you were looking for an under, if you see a fairly high rushing number on one of these backs, going under might not be bad possibly because if they’ve got two or three backs healthy, they’re probably going to use them all.

Scott Kellen:

And so you’re going to see a lot of uses amongst all of them, so no one’s going to have a chance to do great unless they break a long run or something. But it’s so early in the week, I have not looked at any prop bets yet. I will say this, for whatever it means, the last game they played, Dawson Knox at 117 yards receiving, maybe he comes up big again. We look last week, Darren Waller had a great game against the Bengals in the first matchup. He came back on over his number last week and Brandon Aiyuk last year against Dallas had a very big game. It’s different lineups obviously but he came back with another strong game last week, so Knox, possibly 117 yards received in that first matchup and Hardman for the Chiefs set 76 yards, so he did very well in that first matchup as well. It might be something to look at as well but I haven’t seen the numbers yet.

Matt Landes:

One follow-up to the unders on props, I think a word of caution that I’ve heard from some pretty sharp bettors, a lot of backfields might use a 60/40 workload split in the regular season, that could easily become let’s say 80/20 in favor of the bettor back in the playoffs, not really worried so much about load management as getting your best guys out there to give yourself every chance to win the games that are win or go home situations. So historically, have you guys seen that? Would that possibly give you any pause? I’ve got to think for the Chiefs, if CEH or Daryl Williams is healthy, I might be a little more hesitant to go under their numbers than I would a guy like Jerick McKinnon, despite how good he looked when we last saw him.

Scott Kellen:

Yeah, I think the real question would be, they’re coming off injuries, right? So if they were all healthy, there’s probably more weight in that. What you don’t know is if they’re coming off injuries, are they going to ease them back in or are they ready to go with 100% workload? It’s a good question. I remember in the Super Bowl last year, Fournette I believe was getting a lot of the carries late in the year in the playoffs there and Ronald Jones had a very low number. I don’t think I’m mixing them up, I think I’ve got that right. And I looked at Ronald Jones’ numbers and I actually went over and he ended up going over his numbers and I was asking someone, “Am I off on this because it’s not really matching up with what he’s done?” And they said, “Well, Fournette’s being getting a lot of the workload,” but ultimately, they shared that with Jones and he went over his number fairly easily as well. I could see that because you’re just trying to win, right? And you’re going to do anything to win but if they’re coming off injuries, I think it’s a little bit harder to gauge that because you just don’t know what they’re going to get from a workload.

Matt Landes:

Got it. Well, one more prop I will throw out you guys’ way, any thoughts? Scott, maybe you would know this involves the Packers game but with those temperatures in the teens, maybe with a bit of a windchill, it could get even colder than that. I often like to look at field goal unders. In Buffalo this past week, those were a couple of my favorite props. Longest field goal, I found an under 47 and a half yards, I think most games in neutral conditions would be closer to 46, 46 and a half but possibly longest field goal under 46 and a half yards in Green Bay, as well as total field goals in the game, under three and a half is a pretty standard number. Usually you have to lay a little bit of extra vig but nothing too severe. So with the conditions in Green Bay, I’m really inclined to look that route.

Matt Landes:

One thing gives me pause. Well, I guess two, one for each team. One, we saw on the Packers biggest stage last year, Matt LeFleur not shying away from attempting a field goal, perhaps when it’s in his best interest to go for a touchdown to improve his odds of winning. And with the 49ers, we saw from them a similar thing from Shanahan as recently as this past week, third possession of the game for the Niners, up 10 nothing, imposing their will, fourth and one at the 22 and they kick a 40 yard field goal to keep a two score game a two score game. I thought they could have converted that fourth and one pretty easily and really taken control of that game. So with these coaches, sometimes we see more field goals than I feel like we should but in these conditions, it might really make it tough, especially once we get to a greater distance for a guy like Crosby, who struggled this year or as good as Robbie Gould just looked in Dallas, this is a whole different environment for him.

Scott Kellen:

Yeah, I think the number of few goals might be a little bit tougher, to some of the points you just made, Matt, if they get conservative and kick a field goal but the distance still applies there. It’s colder, K-balls, like you said, Crosby just hasn’t been that good at times this year. I still think he’s their best option, he’s a veteran, he’s not going to get elbow kickers, stuff gets in their head but I have no problem with them keeping Crosby but yeah, he’s been shaky. You’re not getting down to the red zone and kicking a 48 yard field goal but remember, the Packers’ red zone defense has not been real good this year either. But yeah, you start to get out the 50 yards… I used to play that prop, it was 45 and a half, then 46 and a half and like you said, you found one, I think you said 47 and a half. The distances are getting much longer and it’s not going to be great conditions there, so that possibly could come into play here. I don’t know how much distance Gould has left in him, I think he’s pretty accurate for the most part but the longer you get, maybe not so much as well. So I think that’s something you can take a look at.

Matt Landes:

Got it. Well, I think as we hit the one hour mark pretty quickly here, we can move on to our best bets to put a bow on this divisional round preview. It’s a pretty fun card to look at here and multiple games where we’ve got some head-to-head clashing, as well as some good consensus. Cris, going the divisional dogs route, Bengals plus three and a half, Niners, plus six, Rams, plus the three and the Bills, plus two and a half. Cris, any final thoughts on your divisional round portfolio here?

Las Vegas Cris:

I don’t know. I think the San Francisco maps out to be the strongest one there but in the long run over time, what looks strong and what looks weak doesn’t really come to fruition, so just hoping for a nice rebound this week and last week we saw favorites and this week, I hope we see underdogs.

Matt Landes:

Yeah and I’ll be right there with you on the Niners but I wouldn’t mind seeing a couple favorites come through, laying the three. Again, at even money in my price dealing for Tampa Bay, I’m aligned there with Scott. And also, taking an earlier look, as I posted in the comments of our last video, on the Titans minus three get up to minus 120 or three and a half at even money should the line move back in that direction. Scott, why don’t you walk us through your portfolio as it stands right now and any final thoughts you have on the divisional round?

Scott Kellen:

Yeah, we got Kansas City minus two and a half, Tampa Bay minus three. We’ve got the over in the Buffalo KC game, 55 and then the one that we added that’s not up there, which is probably the one I like best actually as I was looking over the card, is Rams and Tampa Bay over 48 and a half. To me, that’s just a low number for these two teams and they scored 58 earlier this year back in L.A. and that total was 55 points. They scored 51 last year here, the total was 47, so a little bit more in line with what we’re seeing right now but I think both these teams will win the ball a little bit and getting over 48 and a half I think is still a fairly low number. I’ve got it at about 51 and a half, so I think we’ve got some value there, especially around some key numbers, 49, 50 and 51. I like the over in the Rams Tampa Bay game, probably the best but full disclosure, I play all these the same, it’s very hard for me to predict one over the other. And I don’t want to have to rely on one because I’ve got three times as much money on one versus the other, so I play them all the same but if you ask me, the one I like the best, probably L.A. and Tampa Bay over the total.

Matt Landes:

One more question, open-ended for both of you guys related to not just what to bet but when to bet it. Last week, we some late steam come in on a bunch of games, the Bengals, the Eagles, the Cowboys, the Steelers all took some late money. Some of that certainly professional money but late in the season like we are now, the public can often have quite an impact on the market. So with that in mind, how much of your process in weeks like this is what to bet and how much of it is figuring out when to bet, trying to time the market to get the best of the number?

Las Vegas Cris:

Well, I think pretty much for me, you either bet early or you end up betting late, especially when it’s going to come around to props. So anything in between, everything’s developing, so you’re either going to find errors early or you’re going to find something developed for you close to game time, that’s the way that I look at it. I look forward to any weeks like the Super Bowl or maybe next week where the public can actually take over these points spreads to the point where it becomes unpredictable because then you come into a situation of being able to find a lot of goofy money lines and props and different types of things that get out of whack that become extreme needs at certain places. So something to look out for is just the extremes, in fact, you will get stuck on certain things at this of year, due to the public unexpectedly pouring in at certain places.

Scott Kellen:

Yeah and I think it depends who you’re looking to take. I agree with everything Cris said and if you want Kansas City, well, you’re trying to take it and make sure that you don’t get stuck with the three. If you want Buffalo, Cris is probably waiting till he can get a three on that, same thing with the Rams, Tampa Bay. So depends on where that line is sitting right now too. You can guess where it’s going to go, I’m not great at guessing where it’s going to go, Cris is probably a lot better at that than me but if you’re getting close to a key number… I think the other thing too is if you have multiple outlets, you can afford to wait if you can monitor the activity. If you only have one or two outlets or you’re not really able to monitor, you better take what you think is the best [dubber 01:03:22] and you hope and pray that something doesn’t become better but it really depends on what access you have to other lines and how much you can monitor to make sure you don’t miss something when it starts to move.

Matt Landes:

Well said. Well, on the topic of betting early and betting late, if we do have any late week adds for the divisional round, keep your eyes peeled to the comment section of this video, we’ll add them there. And that’s the same place that we might add any early plays for the Conference Championship round before we do this show again, same time, same place next week. And on that note, we will go ahead and thank everybody for tuning in. For those of you with us on YouTube, one more reminder, please give us a quick thumbs-up, subscribe to the channel and beyond that, best of luck everyone with your divisional round action. Again, we’re back next week, same time, same place, to break down Conference Championship Sunday, so we will see you next Tuesday right back here at BetUS where the game begins.

 

Show More

Related Tags

HLTV BLAST.tv