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Gary Segars:

Hope springs eternal on Thursday night for all 32 NFL teams, whether you are the last place Jacksonville Jaguars or you’re super bowl champion Los Angeles Rams, all 32 teams get to start fresh with the NFL draft Thursday evening. This is the BetUS NFL show and it is our NFL draft special. I am your host Gary Segars, you can follow me on Twitter @garywce. Let me go ahead and introduce our experts for the day. We’ll start off with Scott Kellen, you can follow him over at @SixthSenseNFL. Scott, how’s everything going?

Scott Kellen:

Very good Gary, good to be here and looks like we got a great group to talk a little NFL draft today. Excited.

Gary Segars:

A Lot of guys that seem to know what they’re talking about, for sure. We’ve got Ed Feng from the Power Rank, you can follow him on Twitter @thepowerrank. Ed, how are things with you?

Ed Feng:

I’m doing fantastic. One of my favorite times of the year to the bet so excited for this conversation.

Gary Segars:

Oh, most certainly. And we of course have TA, you can follow him @clevTA, or excuse me, T-A… C-L-E-V-T-A. Let me spell that out. TA, how you doing?

TA:

I’m good. Easy for you to say! Thanks for having me, but yeah this is a great time of year. No actual football, but this is as close as we can get, so excited to talk some props.

Gary Segars:

Oh, ye of little faith. Apparently you’ve not been paying attention to the USFL my friend.

TA:

I have not, sorry.

Gary Segars:

Now this is of course what everybody is interested in Thursday, Friday and Saturday. We have seven rounds, we take the best college football players, we put them into different slots in the NFL and I am ready to discuss it. We are going to talk a lot of picks today, our best bets for the NFL draft. So why don’t we go ahead and start off with them.

Gary Segars:

The first one on the board will be picked number one and there has been a lot of talk about who will go first to the Jacksonville Jaguars. The favorite last week was Aidan Hutchinson. He is the defensive end edge rusher over at Michigan and he was at -170 last week, somewhere around there and this week he is now +175 in some spots.

Gary Segars:

But it looks like the favorite is Travon Walker, the defensive lineman out of Georgia and I will go ahead and tell you, that is my pick for this. I had Walker at +180 last week, and now he is the odds on favorite. Anybody else’s thoughts here, Walker did not have a ton of production at the college level but he charted ridiculously at the combine and he projects to be really, really good in the NFL. This looks like someone that Baalke would be really interested in down in Jacksonville. Scott, let me go on and get your thoughts on this first overall pick. Is this just a smoke screen of some [inaudible 00:02:59] being the number one pick?

Scott Kellen:

I think it very well could be, Gary. The first thing to note I think with the NFL draft, when the lines move like this it’s usually based on some smart money that at least feels like they have a clue. Obviously nobody knows for sure and I think Trent Baalke, the GM there, he is always focused on the traits and the measurables. And kind of like you said, I think Travon Walker exhibits that, even if Hutchinson maybe is the better player possibly, so I think some of those things have helped move this.

Scott Kellen:

Kind of a long shot would maybe be the offensive tackle from NC state, I think Doug Pederson likes him a lot and I’m looking at him, he is +400 right now. That’s probably not even good enough odds quite frankly for that, given I don’t think anyone truly feels he’s going to go. But if those odds were a little bit higher, possibly a long shot there, but I think it’s probably Walker more likely than not

Gary Segars:

Ed, talking about that offensive line section there, obviously Evan Neal from Alabama, Ikem Ekwonu who Scott just brought up. Is there any kind of potential value or is this really, we’re looking at a defensive line selection here for the Jags early?

Ed Feng:

I’m not sure that there’s any value anymore. I grabbed some Walker +190 when I saw one of the sportsbooks was a little bit late moving it, I was in Ohio and texting people. I couldn’t bet online there, but I was at a soccer tournament, had to get in touch with some people before that line went poof and it did. You got to remember the history of this number one pick, Kayvon Thibodeaux was the favorite during the football season and then that changed over to Evan Neal after the season was over, heading into the combine. And then Jacksonville made some moves at the tackle position and then all of a sudden Aidan Hutchinson was the favorite for a while.

Ed Feng:

And now late we’re getting this information that Trent Baalke wants Travon Walker, not what I would do with the pick, but I think that leaves Aidan Hutchinson to go to Detroit at number two. Obviously nothing set in stone yet, a lot can change before 8PM tomorrow, but it’s just such a different situation than last year when, what, Trevor Lawrence was -10,000 at this point to be the first pick. So at least a lot of excitement and I think that’s kind of the fun of this draft, we’re actually getting some fun action on the top picks and that’s simply because there’s no quarterbacks out there.

Gary Segars:

You’ve got that right. TA, whatever ends up happening with this number one pick, whether it’s Walker or Hutchinson, et cetera, it could shift what ends up happening in the top five. The odds early last week were Kayvon Thibodeaux was going to be number two. Well, if Hutchinson is there then that kind of changes everything, right?

TA:

Yeah. And I’ve heard, I’m sure other guys on the panel have heard the same thing, there was rumblings, rumors late last week about some real, real sharp action on Thibodeaux going two. It’s kind of a secret that’s been out there, so it’s [inaudible 00:06:06] pass on the hometown kid in Hutchinson. He’s a very, very clean prospect and you’re talking to somebody here, I’ve got a little piece of almost everybody at number one, I’ve got Hutchinson at +500. I kind of got lucky, it was right after the combine, I got it the morning of the Cam Robinson franchise news, so I got them at the peak. And then when they Jaguars decided to franchise Cam Robinson that number cratered and then when I started seeing rumblings about Walker potentially going one, there was rumors a couple weeks ago. I grabbed [inaudible 00:06:43] yesterday when I saw the report from Daniel Jeremiah that Doug Pederson wants potentially the tackle from NC state, I grabbed Ekwonu at +400.

TA:

So I have a little bit, little bit of all three at 380 or better, so I feel pretty good about that. Really hard for me to lose that unless it’s Evan, Neal, obviously. But yeah, if they do go walk or at one I still think Hutchinson’s going to go two. It seems like too big of a leap to take Thibodeaux there over Hutchinson. But you never know, like I said, there was steam late last week so somebody knows something, we’ll see what happens. But yeah, at this point I don’t think there’s any value at number one anymore but if I had to guess, I would say Hutchinson two and Walker one.

Gary Segars:

Kayvon Thibodeaux has been the projected number one position in this draft for three years now. He kind of had the Jadeveon Clowney thing. And now of course you get here and everybody has nitpicked him apart and I’m sure he is still going to be great, but obviously we talk about him here in just a little bit. Let’s move on to the next section and that’s going to be position groups. How many in each position group will be drafted in the first round?

Gary Segars:

Now we are focusing on Thursday night, we’re focusing on the first round in this position. I’m going to start off with running backs here, now TA you and I both, we like the running backs here. We like under 0.5 running back being taken in the first round. I Believe the odds currently are -260ish roundabout in the last week, I got it at -170, it’s all the way to -260. I still like it at -260. I don’t know of any running back that would really fit or have value in this first round. Breece Hall widely speculated to be the first running back, taken in this draft but he doesn’t have that same burst, that same past catching ability, et cetera that you had out of Najee Harris or Etienne last year out of Clemson. Unless somebody really surprises us here, do you see any way a running back is taken in the first round TA?

TA:

No, I don’t. I do like the under 0.5. We’re starting to get a little expensive when it gets 260, but I think it’s still good value. And that’s one thing you have to understand, I think when people see laying so much juice there, typically you shy away from it but there can still be a lot of value and I think there still is. I have it at -190, so I feel a little better about that, but I still think it’s okay. And like you said, Hall and Walker are really the top two candidates at running back. I think Hall is at 39. That’s his over/under draft position and Walker’s more in the 50s.

TA:

It’s not even just the guys themselves aren’t that great, it’s who’s drafting at the end of round one which is where you could possibly see one if there was actually a quality running back there. But none of the teams in the back half of the first round are going to take him, look at the lines, you look at Tampa, look at Kansas city. They’re all pretty set at running back, the Bengals have Joe Mixon. There’s really no need there like the Steelers had with Najee Harris last year. So I think the combination of no need and then just no real standout at running back this year makes this kind of an easy bet for me to take the under.

Gary Segars:

Same here. We will move over to quarterbacks. Scott, you and I both went in on this one and quarterbacks, under 3.5 In the first round. It is all the way out to -270, I believe it was -170 last week, it’s -270. Now, not as much hype about this quarterback class and that’s understandable at this point, Kenny Pickett has his flaws, Malik Willis has his flaws. People will talk a lot about them and they have talked about Matt Corral possibly going to the Seahawks. I don’t know that there’s any way that they take him in the first round, but again, we’re getting three quarterbacks in the first round. If it goes to four, we lose the bet. But Scott I’m curious your thoughts here, -270, still a decent price to take under 3.5 quarterbacks?

Scott Kellen:

Yeah, I think so. I think like TA said, sometimes it gets a little expensive but I think it’s still a very good shot. This happens for a few reasons. Number one, none of these quarterbacks are fantastic quarterbacks compared to recent drafts or may maybe even next year, which has to be a little thought for some of these teams as well. If there’s more in better quarterbacks next year, they might just wait potentially, especially if they’re not going to be a good team this year anyway. And there’s probably four teams that need a quarterback potentially and again, with there not being a whole lot of great quarterbacks in there, it’s hard for me to see more than three quarterbacks going in the first round. Additionally, you’ve got a couple quarterbacks out there like a Baker Mayfield, for example, that potentially could be traded.

Scott Kellen:

Now I’ve heard rumblings that those trades could come after the draft, but still if one of those teams thinks they need a co quarterback and they want to take a shot at a Mayfield, for example, that might eliminate them from possibly drafting a quarterback as well. The two caveats to this, I guess, Detroit could just completely surprise everybody and take one early. I don’t think that’s going to happen. Sometimes you start to see a run in quarterbacks. But again even Carolina at six, you have to question unless Carolina moves back, do they want to take a quarterback with the six pick? Just because these quarterbacks aren’t deemed to be fabulous for a draft this year.

Scott Kellen:

And I guess to one other caveat, you could get a team late in the first round that steps in and gets the 31st, 32nd pick and there is some value to taking a player in the first round versus a second round or later. So that’s always hanging out there, but I still don’t think there’s more than three quarterbacks that you could really defend a team taking in the first round this year. So I think the under 3.5 still has some pretty good value despite the high money line.

Gary Segars:

Yeah. The value that you were talking about Scott, having them in that first round, for anybody that doesn’t understand, you get that fifth year of control over that player. You’ve got their rights locked in a little bit longer and if you have them under that rookie for a longer amount of time, if they do hit then obviously you can build up the rest of the team around them and potentially make a super bowl run. Much the same way that the chiefs did with Patrick Mahomes and other teams have done in the past. So there is a method to the madness, but regardless, this quarterback class, not exactly standouts.

Gary Segars:

We’ll move from there over to cornerbacks. Every year there are a slew of cornerbacks taken in the draft, mainly because you can use them in special teams. But especially with today’s offenses, you have a lot of use out of the cornerbacks because they have to be able to defend these wide receivers. There’s a reason why wide receivers are being paid as much as they right now. Ed, you and Scott both are big on the cornerbacks and going over 4.5 here. It’s +110 roundabout in certain spots, I believe that’s what it is over at BetUS right now. Ed, I want you to start us off here, what is your thought process on going over 4.5 cornerbacks in the first round?

Ed Feng:

Well, first I tend to obsess over cornerbacks in the NFL. I think they’re incredibly important in terms of coverage, some research by PFS that has shown that. I’m always obsessing over their cover grades over there, I think it’s very important in my handicapping. And then for this draft one of my key tools is using [inaudible 00:14:16] methods. So I’ll go over to a site like Grinding the Mocks and look where players expected draft position is. And I also have my own separate set of mocks that I use, these are people with a track record of accuracy.

Ed Feng:

So I use both of those resources, both a generalism of crowds and then a more specific set. And in that tool, about 70% of the sharp mocks have at least five or more cornerbacks going, Sauce Gardner and Derek Stingley are almost certainly going in the first round, as is probably Andrew Booth. A lot of love for Kyler Gordon, the Washington cornerback to also go. So he’s really the guy that a lot of the sharp mock drafters have going in the first round, so that pushes me over 4.5 quarterbacks. You get plus money there, I think, I think you have to like that a lot.

Gary Segars:

Most certainly. Scott, what are your thoughts on this?

Scott Kellen:

Yeah, I agree. I think there’s three and I don’t even think Ed mentioned McDuffie, who I think will go in the first round with almost certainty as well. I think there’s at least three for sure, obviously we need five here to win. But cornerback is, as Ed said, is such a high valued position that teams need, especially with the NFL just being such a passing league, that if you have a chance to grab one, you’re going to grab one. And if you look at the last five or six teams drafting, obviously teams can trade out and all that can change. But the last five or six teams, the majority of those teams drafting could very much need a cornerback.

Scott Kellen:

A Cincinnati Bengal team, they need a cornerback. They’ve addressed the offensive line, they could still take an offensive line person in the position in the first round, but they address that a little bit in the off-season. They may deem that the cornerback position’s more valuable for them at that slot. So I think there’s enough teams in the back end, which is where we’re going to need teams to take it, to get that fourth and fifth cornerback that I think there is some value on the over 4.5 as well.

Gary Segars:

And just a little number here, three of the last five seasons, or past five drafts, cornerback has been the most drafted position. The other two was linebackers, so those are the predominant positions as far as the NFL draft goes so it certainly does make sense. Ryan jumps in on the YouTube chat, he says “Stingley, Sauce, Booth, McDuffie. There’s four right there.” Most certainly, so now you have to hope for the back end of that first round and I would imagine that we will get there. We will certainly get there.

Gary Segars:

Let’s move over to draft positions. We do have people in the chat, Mark and, let’s see, Ryan I believe jumped in as well wanting to know about the over under for positions for Kayvon, et cetera. We will start off with Kayvon Thibodeaux going under 4.5, that’s Scott’s best bet here. Scott, tell me what you think about Kayvon Thibodeaux under 4.5 on draft position.

Scott Kellen:

Yeah. First of all, I think three of the four first picks are likely to be defensive lineman edge rushers, very likely to be the first two picks and now you’re left with a third and fourth pick which is Houston and the Jets. Houston just needs a whole lot of everything, they could certainly take something else. But with the Jets, for example, their cornerbacks aren’t horrible, could they use a corner? Yes, but I just think Thibodeaux, he’s going to bring a lot more value to that team from a defensive standpoint. Could they take an offensive lineman there? Sure. Could they take a receiver? Sure. I just think Thibodeaux is going to offer more value there. I just feel extremely high that three of these four first picks are going to be edge rushers and he’s really, wherever you slot him, he’s one of the top three edge rushers I think. And I just think there’s a high, high likelihood based on team needs and the position that he’s going to go in the top four.

Gary Segars:

Now we’ll stay with you, Scott, we’ll move over to Ahmad Gardner, Sauce Gardner, cornerback out of Cincinnati. You’ve got him going over 5.5. And when you do look at the first five picks, like you just said we’ve got the Jags, lions, Texans, Jets and Giants. It would make sense that somebody after those first five picks would take a cornerback because other than the Texans who need everything, I don’t know that there’s another group out of the Jags, the lions, the Jets or the Giants that necessarily need a cornerback in that top five. Is that right?

Scott Kellen:

Yeah. Possibly the Giants, but I don’t think that’s going to be the first pick. I’m a little leery in this one, the market’s kind of moved against me a little bit on this one. But I’ve also got Charles Cross over his draft position as well and if the Texans don’t take an offense… If they take an offensive linesman, I think they’re taking Neal, more than likely. There has been some rumblings that maybe Cross is the guy that the Giants want as well, but I think Neal could possibly go to the Texans potentially. And I don’t know that the Giants would take Gardner at five, they might, it’s been rumored they want an offensive lineman, extremely important to them. So I’m getting both these picks at plus money on Gardner and Neal, I’m sorry on Cross. So if one fails and the other one wins, I still win on that.

Scott Kellen:

So I think just the way it shakes out, three of those first four to go to edge, it really comes down to Houston. If they do by chance take Gardner, I still think that Giants would probably take Neal first. A little bit reliant then, of course, on Carolina and what they do, but I think there’s a high probability that we can win one of those two and they’re both at plus money currently which is part of the reason I took the one. I would take both of them because I think, for me, I need to play both of them. I could see Houston taking Gardner, it certainly could happen like you said. They need positions everywhere, Gardner is highly regarded, I’m just not sure they’re going to take him at that spot.

TA:

Not to interrupt, but I personally have Gardner third spot at 10/1. I picked that up last week and it plummeted since, but I have heard some rumblings like yesterday, early this morning that Stingley could be the third pick. So you might actually win that because Stingley might jump ahead of Gardner, some teams actually have him rated higher. I don’t know how true that is, but that’s something that I know Matt Miller and others have talked about so that would push Gardner down obviously so I think you’d be okay there. But yeah, that came out of nowhere but that’s something I did here.

Gary Segars:

That’s interesting. Stingley, ooh!

Ed Feng:

Stingley has a really high ceiling, probably a really low floor and I don’t know what BetUS has, but I think both FanDuel and DraftKings have Stingley as a favorite at the number three pick right now, which is very new.

Gary Segars:

That’s very new, because I’m trying to look it up as we speak. That’s interesting, I had not seen that in my prep for this. While I’m looking this up…

Ed Feng:

I looked it up literally as we were jumping on today and if you poke around, that hasn’t necessarily been reflected in the odds for Houston and the position that they’re going to pick as their first pick. So if you poke around, there’s potentially some value there.

TA:

And I will tell you know, Nick Caserio is the GM there. I’m based in Cleveland, he actually grew up down the street for me so I know him a little bit, but he came from New England, they drafted cornerback really high a lot. Now, again, they were drafted late in the first round but they drafted cornerback in like seven of the ten drafts he was there within the first two rounds. They had Stephon Gilmore as a big part, so I think they really do like cornerback and Stingley, as you mentioned, has the highest upside I think of the group. So that was an interesting one there, but back to Scott’s Gardner, that would definitely push Gardner up because I’m not sure if anybody else would take Gardner in the top five.

Gary Segars:

At BetUS right now, third overall draft pick, Gardner is the favorite at +275, stingley number two at +325. And after that you got Ekwonu, Neal and Travon Walker at +400 on each of those and Kayvon Thibodeaux is +600. So that is interesting, these things move so quickly. We’re doing this on Tuesday, but yes, this is so much fun to keep track of.

Gary Segars:

Let’s let’s move ahead in this list of players that we’re talking about. Ed, I’m going to get you in here to talk about Kenny Pickett. When I bet Kenny Pickett, it was over pick 10.5 and I had -110 roundabout, somewhere around there. Now it’s over 13.5 and it’s -130. Big change here, what exactly has happened? Obviously we know that Kenny Pickett, the hand size thing is something that social media likes to discuss quite a bit, but the there’s there’s more to this. He had one flash of a year and the rest of it was just built, I guess, or spent building up to that. Give me your thoughts on Pickett going over pick 13.5.

Ed Feng:

Well, Gary, you touched on all the important points. Pickett was brilliant last year, Pittsburgh offense was relatively awful the seasons that he played before that. He’s old. He’s been at Pitt, I think this was his fifth year, which is not exactly what you want to see in your franchise quarterback coming out of the draft. So I have Pickett over 12.5, that’s clearly moved that way and I’m clearly going to call myself a genius for having the market move in my way. Except honestly, that bet was to make up for a Pickett top 10 bet I made earlier.

Ed Feng:

So if you read my newsletter, I had actually talked about Pickett being selected before Malik Willis, a couple weeks ago we were all talking about Pickett going six to Carolina. He was trending upward in some of these tools that I look at and then the bottom fell out and he’s going completely the opposite direction. So I have a little bit of Pickett over 12.5, that’s basically to hedge a little bit of the Pickett exposure I have in the other direction which I’m pretty sure is going to lose. I don’t see him getting picked at 10, 11 or 12 just because none of those teams need quarterbacks, or are likely to grab a quarterback there. Pickett’s draft stock is going way down, I’m not exactly sure why, but it’s dropping.

Gary Segars:

So in that position there where you were talking, number nine is the Seahawks. Number 10 the Jets, 11 Commanders who just picked up Carson Wentz not that long ago, I wouldn’t imagine they would go quarterback here. The Seahawks maybe because Pete Carroll has done some crazy things out there, we know the running backs and whatnot that they’ve taken in the first round. But also at the number 12 is the Vikings. They’ve still got Cousins, I wouldn’t imagine they go with anything there. They just drafted Kellen Mond last year.

Gary Segars:

Then at 13, the last one here would be the Texans and they seem, again, they need everything. I don’t know why you would reach for a quarterback in this position, but I’m with you. I would go over the 13.5, took it at 10.5, it’s moved one position almost every day since I drafted it last week. I would imagine we’ll do the same things.

Gary Segars:

Scott let’s move on to another one of yours, you talked about Charles Cross for a little bit, over 7.5, he’s the offensive tackle from Mississippi state. Give me some rundown on this one. Over 6.5 is +110, do you think there’s just too many good players that might be drafted in front of him?

Scott Kellen:

Yeah. I think, as I said earlier, three of the first four I think go to that edge position. Houston comes in, they could take Stingley or Gardner of course. Giants do want an offensive lineman, there has been some talk that they like Cross so I got to worry about that a little bit, but I think Neal is probably the better lineman and is probably the first offensive lineman to go. If that’s the case, then we really fall to Carolina. Carolina certainly could take an offensive lineman, I don’t think there’s any question about that, but they also need the quarterback and there’s a lot of pressure there for Carolina to do something and do it sooner than later so they may take a quarterback at that spot.

Scott Kellen:

I also don’t, going back to offensive lineman, I’m not sure Houston would take him because they do have a left tackle in Tunzil and I don’t know that you would draft an offensive lineman this high up in the draft to play right tackle. You could possibly maybe put him at right tackle and he moves over or if they get rid of Tunzil. But I think it’s less likely that Houston takes him, so now we go to the number five spot and then it just comes down to do the Giants take Neal or Cross. If they take Cross then obviously I lose this bet, if they don’t then it really comes down to what does Carolina do and again there’s still another tackle there that Carolina could take, even if that happens. So it’s plus money, I think there’s a chance here and like I said, combining that with Gardner, I feel like I’m going to win one of those two more than likely and get something out of it. And heck, I didn’t even know about the Stingley stuff so with that happening maybe we get lucky on both those as well.

Gary Segars:

Most certainly. I will go ahead and give out another one of my best bets here, Kyle Hamilton, the safety out of Notre Dame. Obviously coming off of injury, that’s one thing, but safety is a position, for whatever reason, that has not been highly valued in the first round in quite some time. The last top 11 safety pick that we had was 2018, if I’m not mistaken, and that was Minkah Fitzpatrick. We did have Jamal Adams as well at number six, not too far around there. But over 11.5 At -130, I still do like that because I don’t believe that there’s a lot of teams that are looking for a safety there. And of course the position has been devalued for whatever reason. He may end up being one of the best players in this draft, but I don’t believe it’ll be in the top 11.5 picks. I did take this when it was 10.5 And it was even money at that point, but over 11.5, I still like that.

Gary Segars:

TA, let’s get you in here, let’s talk wide receivers for a minute. You’ve got under 16.5 for Chris Olave. Now he was the talk of Ohio state’s offense for multiple years now, but Garrett Wilson really came on strong last season and once we got into the Combine, et cetera, Chris Olave though under 16 and a half, you still feel like that’s a good bet at -145?

TA:

Yeah. And I know his number has dropped as well. I think it was 21 a couple weeks ago, but I like where it’s at now just because you’re still getting teams like Philadelphia and New Orleans who both need receivers there. But Olave is a really polished wide receiver, great route runner, everyone agrees with that. He blew away the combine from a speed standpoint, ran under a 4.4, nobody expected that. But really this comes down to just the fact that guys like Jameson Williams and now Drake London, and Garrett Wilson all could be top 10 picks or at least top 15 and Olave is pretty clearly the fourth receiver here. Treylon Burks has dropped because of his mediocre combine. And some other question marks about him.

TA:

And really the big thing for me is Washington sits at 11, they really need a wide receiver. They attended the Ohio State pro day a handful of weeks ago, Ron Rivera notoriously never attends pro days unless he’s really interested. I think Auburn was the only pro day he’s attended in his career and that was to draft Cam Newton number one. So he really, really meant business. That’s something you got to pay attention to when a coach does something like that he normally doesn’t do. And they only have, I think, one wide receiver under contract next year. They are desperate for wide receivers, so I think he’s penciled there if the other receivers are gone.

TA:

Otherwise, there are plenty of teams like Houston and like I mentioned, Philadelphia, New Orleans all before 16.5 that can easily take him there. So I think just the way the wide receiver board is falling and who’s in need of a receiver, it fits. But 16.5 is really the cutoff, or 16 because I think that’s new Orleans, right? That is the last team I think I’d want to go by to be safe. But yeah, that one is one that I still like here at this number.

Gary Segars:

Most certainly. We’ll move on to one that I do like, that is Daxton Hill who is the safety, but more so just a defensive back out of Michigan. I like him to be drafted in the top 32. I took it at -150, it’s at -225 now. He is an all everything player and I don’t believe that there’s any way that he gets out of the first round. When you’re look at team needs, et cetera that’s one thing, but he is certainly one of the top 32 players in this draft. You could see it last year at Michigan, he was just an all around stud. So I like Dax Hill to be drafted in the first round, even at -225.

Gary Segars:

Ed, let’s move over to you. Kyler Gordon here, you like him top 32 and it’s a +110. Give me your thoughts on this.

Ed Feng:

Absolutely. This is related to why I think there’s going to be at least five cornerbacks in the first round. The kids out of Washington produce a lot of cornerbacks. Most importantly, this is a play off of the sharp mocks that I look at. 70% of them have him in the first round, that is basically impacting my cornerback bets and my liking him for plus money going in the top 32.

Gary Segars:

That would make sense. I think the odds are actually at +140 right now, so I am curious about that. But yeah, he is well worth a first round pick and again that is a position of value, especially when it comes to the first round because we know what positions get paid when it comes to the NFL.

Ed Feng:

Yeah. Kansas city has two picks down there, they lost a cornerback as well. I think every year that team should draft cornerbacks, but they don’t necessarily. Maybe this is the year.

Gary Segars:

Does anybody else have one that they want to toss in that I don’t have on my sheet here? TA you got an extra one that you feel pretty confident in?

TA:

From a player position standpoint?

Gary Segars:

Yeah.

TA:

Nothing that jumps off the page, honestly. I did like for a little, I had some Jermaine Johnson over 9.5. That’s starting to move, that went to 10.5 and now it’s back to 9.5, I believe. There were some rumblings yesterday that the Jets might be interested in Johnson at number four, which just amazes me. I’ll just give you the reason why I initially thought that the over made some sense, and I’m not necessarily buying that hype by the way with the Jets. He’s one of the older prospects that’s coveted this early in the draft and obviously there’s a lot of analytically-focused front offices that are, that are popping up here everywhere. We see the Browns and the Eagles and the Ravens and now even with the Vikings, Kwesi came over from the Browns. Very analytically focused.

TA:

And so age is a big factor there, so I think that pushes him down in some models. He’s got one-year wonder, he transferred out of Georgia to Florida state and so I thought that maybe that would push him up a little bit. I saw Peter King had him 23rd in his mock yesterday, so there’s a lot of variance there with him. But you could see a team like Seattle at nine, unfortunately, with their old school ways. We know Pete Carroll’s there, they don’t really care about analytics over there. So they easily could just ignore all that and take a position of need and really screw everything up. But that’s the team that would really scare me the most, but otherwise I think he could have a little bit of a fall just because of that one-year wonder and the age issue and the fact that he had to transfer essentially out of Georgia just to get some playing time. So there are a lot of red flags.

Gary Segars:

[crosstalk 00:34:16] quick because you brought up Seattle at nine, the odds have been updated over at, BetUS. Under 9.5 for Jermaine Johnson, -150 now.

TA:

Yeah. And that’s probably because of the rumors about him and the Jets yesterday. Every time any reporter, any analyst comes out with a mock or any sort of nugget like that the lines jump immediately, so that makes total sense. That’s why I’m not in love with it anymore, but I still think he gets pushed out of the top 10 when it comes down to it, if I had a choice.

Gary Segars:

Scott, let me get your thoughts here. We did talk about Charles Cross, that one has been updated as well, under 6.5 is now -150. To go over 6.5 is +110, so it’s so sounds like there are rumors about the Panthers possibly taking him at that six position. Is there anybody else, Scott, that you feel like bringing up here?

Scott Kellen:

Well, the only other thing I’d play off your safety thing there, you could go over 1.5 safeties is which I think is -300. And I think you said Gary, Daxton Hill in the top 32 is -225. So for anybody considering that, just understand that Hamilton looks to be a lock in the first round and Hill is going to be the other guy that goes more than likely if someone goes. So if you’re looking to play that one way or the other, probably taking Daxton Hill in the top 32 is better than going over 1.5 safeties just from a pricing standpoint.

TA:

Lewis Cine out of Georgia, he’d be the third guy. He’s getting some buzz late in the first round as well, but those are definitely the three guys. And the thing about Daxton Hill is he played a lot of cornerback, he played a ton of slot cornerback with Michigan so that added versatility I think definitely jumps him into the first round. I could see New England could be a perfect fit for him, for example.

Scott Kellen:

Or Tampa Bay, they need help in the back [inaudible 00:36:06].

Gary Segars:

Scott, maybe you can explain this to me. With Daxton Hill, if they announce him as a safety then that over 1.5 safeties would hit. But if they announce him as a defensive back or as a cornerback, would it depend on where they draft the particular player? Because he’s a do-it-all, does any of that even matter?

Scott Kellen:

Boy, I haven’t even thought about that really, I’ve always seen him and kind of thought him as a safety. He’s very versatile, like TA says, so I agree. I’m not even sure. I got to believe he’s listed as a safety, but…

TA:

I think so. I think you’re okay. Yeah, he’s listed as safety, you’re okay. I just think the way he plays and he’s got that ability, but he’s officially listed as a safety so it definitely counts.

Gary Segars:

That works for me. That works for me.

TA:

You’re right, but that’s the same thing with if you pick an edge rusher who’s outside linebacker or defensive end, sometimes it can be classified either way so you do have to be careful and that’s a good point to bring up because different books could treat that differently. You got to make sure you know how guys are being classified from a position standpoint.

Gary Segars:

Most certainly. Let’s go ahead and move into specific players and what position they will be drafted as far as their position group. And my bet on this one is Evan Neal to be the first offensive lineman drafted and I only took this because it was +150 and there were questions about Ikem Ekwonu, the offensive tackle from NC state. Now Evan Neal, it’s down to +125, I took it at +150, but he has been widely regarded as [inaudible 00:37:45] offensive lineman in this class for multiple years, just because of his size, his athletic ability, et cetera. He’s 6′ 7″, 340 pounds roundabout and he can do just about anything. Anything that you need him to do. Now Ikem Ekwonu, much more of a run blocking, sturdy offensive tackle. It depends on what you guys want him to do, that’s why I took Evan Neal at +150.

Gary Segars:

At +125, I still maybe see some value there because I don’t know that these teams know exactly what they’re going to do, but I feel like that’s value because there are limitations with Ekwonu and while there are limitations with Evan Neal as well, I do think that there is value in… It may just be a tossup. We could get Evan Neal at number one. It’s doubtful, but it’s possible and that would hit a couple of different things for me with that. Ed, I see on here that you like the punt God for the first special teams draft. Tell me about Matt Araiza.

Ed Feng:

Yeah. Matt Araiza is the punt god, I think I first heard of him when they had the ESPN cover story on espn.com. I think this is a perfect example of how I like to bet this. You see a market come out on special teams players, that’s not something a lot of people care about. I went through and I basically looked up every sixth round draft I could find. I looked at a couple of [inaudible 00:39:16] crowd tools. I couldn’t find a single one that didn’t have him as the top special teams player. There’s a couple place kickers that are going to be around. He’s probably, what third, fourth round pick. I bet him at -115, I think I saw -400 this morning. The books are going to put things out this week on some lesser known players and I think that’s really where you can find some value NFL betting lines this draft.

Gary Segars:

Most certainly. I do want to jump over to you, TA. We’ll talk about team selections here. I’m seeing you like the Browns to draft at wide receiver. Tell me your thoughts on that one.

TA:

Yeah, so I’m based in Cleveland, I think I know this franchise pretty good and these team selections are one of my favorites. Last year I had the Browns taking the defensive back, that was +400 and they took Greg Newsome. It was crazy, it was like the third or fourth highest position group on the board and that was, I thought, all along the number one need. They don’t pay much attention to this stuff so you can pick off some good team position groups. But the Browns have two real needs, it’s edge rusher and it’s wide receiver. They’ve got Amari Cooper at receiver, but that’s about it. They don’t really have much behind him. Donovan Peoples-Jones kind of a number three, number four. They’ve got a big need there. They did not really sign Jarvis Landry, so again big need for them at 44 receiver.

TA:

Thinking about edge rusher or defensive line would be the other one and that is also plus money, but they’ve got Jadeveon Clowney sitting out there who, there are rumors that they are on the verge of resigning and he always waits till the last minute, waits till summertime to resign. So that might just be one of those things where they don’t want to tip their hand so they’re waiting till after the draft to announce that signing. But they’ve also traded for Chase Winovich and signed a couple other rotational guys, so at worst case they’re okay there. So to me, it’s a clear need at wide receiver. There’s really no other position on the board.

TA:

Cornerback, they’re loaded. Offensive line, they got one of the best in the NFL. They’re analytically focused so they’re not going to draft an off-ball linebacker early, their safety position is filled, they won’t draft a running back high, they don’t need a quarterback. All those positions are filled, so it’s really receiver. So I got it at +350. I think it’s down to 250 now. I would take that all the way down to +100, to be honest with you. I’m stunned that’s not the favorite. Eventually it will be, I’m sure, but to me that’s one, even if they trade down, to me it’s going to be either receiver or edge rusher and I think receiver clearly is the favorite. So I like that there.

Gary Segars:

Now you mentioned them trading down, is there any chance that they actually trade up to try and get back into that first round to get one of these highly ranked wide receivers?

TA:

Unfortunately, because of all the draft capital they traded for Deshaun Watson, it’s really hard for them to continue to use that. And again, I know they’re going for it now, but that’s not in their M.O to really trade up substantially. If they had to move up a couple spots, I could see them doing that but they just don’t have the draft capital to really risk moving up that high. So I think it’s either stay where they are, get a guy like a George Pickens or Skyy Moore, or trade down and go for a high athletic younger guy, like a John Metchie or Alec Pierce, those are some names that pop up. But yeah, I just think wide receiver’s clearly the number one on their list.

Gary Segars:

Now that does make sense. As far as another team that is looking at a wide receiver, you have Washington to draft a wide receiver their first selection. I think you got it at +125, give me your thoughts there on what the Commanders are going to do.

TA:

Yeah. And I talked about it with the Olave pick. It’s clear, they’ve got Terrell McClain and nobody else opposite him. They’ve got Curtis Samuel, who next year they can cut and there’s no dead money on the book, so it’s probably his last year there. They’ve got nobody under contract next year and that’s one of the things I like to look at [inaudible 00:43:12] positional spend is some of these teams next year. [inaudible 00:43:20] A crater in terms of who’s under contract for a following season, you can kind of get a clue as to potentially what they’re looking at in terms of position. So that’s where Washington is and Terrell McClain’s not even under contract next year and he wants a long term extension and who knows, he may request a trade this year, next year. We don’t know.

TA:

So that alone makes it really worth it and they’re right in that zone of Garrett Wilson, Jameson Williams, Chris Olave and Drake London. All of those guys are going to be in play and like I said, Ron Rivera was at the Ohio state pro day, they’ve been to all the wide receiver pro days, all the signs point to wide receiver. The only other caveat, the only other guy who might step in would be like a Kyle Hamilton, because they do have some safety issues, but I think wide receiver’s too much of a need and those prospects are just way too good to pass up. So to me, anything even or above I think is fine for Washington and wide receiver.

Gary Segars:

That does make sense. Gentlemen, I think it is time for us to go ahead and jump into our recaps unless anybody has another one that they want to toss out?

Scott Kellen:

Gary, the only other one I’d throw out there, and we can kind of wrap it into the recaps, but Jeff’s first pick is even money on the defensive lineman. If you like Thibodeaux under 4.5 but you’re laying 270, the first two picks are probably not going to be Thibodeaux. Houston’s a question mark, obviously certain risk in doing that, but the reward by taking that risk is you save the -270, you get at even money. Because if Thibodeaux is going to go in the first four, it’s very likely to be with the Jets as well. So that would be one other way you could play that as well, possibly.

Gary Segars:

That’s a smart move. Look for the value in maybe making the same bet just in a different spot. Right? So Jets taking a defense lineman minus what’d you say it was, it was even money?

Scott Kellen:

It’s even money. So there’s obviously risk, right? Because you could go three and then you’re screwed and all that. The question really becomes, do you want to save the -270 to take that risk or you take something that opens up all four slots for you at the -270.

TA:

I’ll jump in with another one, Gary, if you don’t mind. Another team that I saw right before we jumped on, Arizona to take an offensive lineman with their first selection. I got it at +500, I think you could find it at least +300 everywhere. Hopefully it hasn’t steamed out after I took it. But that one, again, similar to Washington they’ve got literally nobody on the books from the offensive line perspective under contract next year except for their center, Rodney Hudson. None of their tackles or guards are even under contract, it’s barren. They were not a great offensive line to begin with, the right side of the line is horrible, they’ve got to protect Kyler Murray. So I think that’s going to be one position group that they’re really interested in.

TA:

There are some national analysts who are really tied into specific teams and one of them is Peter Schrager, he’s really tied into the NFC west, he does all those podcasts with those coaches and he’s actually picked the correct player with the Cardinals two straight years in the first round. And he has the guard, Zion Johnson out of Boston college going to Arizona this year. I haven’t seen his most updated mock, but that was a strong clue for me on top of everything else. So they could go receiver to satisfy Kyler Murray, but that’s only if a guy like Jameson Williams drops, which I doubt. I think offensive line is great value +300 above and like I said, I got it a +500 so I think that’s a really nice bet there.

Gary Segars:

That’s a good thing to point out there. They are draft pick number 23 in the first and is why you should not pay attention to nfl.com and what they list as the needs for this team because they have linebacker, wide receiver and cornerback. But when you really dig into the weeds the way that you just did, that does make sense, right? They need offensive line help, at draft pick number 23 an offensive lineman make may a lot more sense as opposed [inaudible 00:47:16] at that position. Et cetera. So especially with the Cardinals drafting after the Packers, if they did want to get a wide receiver maybe the Packers don’t take Burks, maybe something like that. But at that point you’ve probably already got five wide receivers off the board. So yeah, that would make sense, +300. Okay.

TA:

And the other thing, linebacker, two straight years they’ve drafted a linebacker in the first round. I can’t imagine they’re going to do that again and like I said, they’re going to get Hopkins back so that’s going to help. They’ve drafted receivers I think in a second round almost every year, so at some point they’re going to stop taking receivers really high. But you know, they’ve got Rondale Moore there so they do have other pieces. So yeah, like I said, that’s the only other option and at the end of the day even if that’s a coin flip between receiver and O line, if you get +300 or above that’s tremendous value to take shot.

Scott Kellen:

+375 right now.

Gary Segars:

375 [crosstalk 00:48:12]. That’s not bad.

TA:

That’s a good number.

Gary Segars:

Ed, how about you? Have you got anything else that you’re itching to toss out there for us?

Ed Feng:

I think I’ll probably just end with a little bit more thoughts on process. These books are going to continue to come out with different markets this week and it’ll probably be pretty weak when they first come out until guys like Scott and TA beat them into place. So this is a fun week to just be flipping on your phone and looking at all the different books that you have. It’s a really great way to find value, lean on these guys on the show and I think you find a lot of value between now and Thursday at 8PM.

TA:

That is right, if you just pay attention to Twitter, once you get a nugget out there you can just run to your… They’re so slow to adjust, you can beat the lines very, very easily. So just pay attention to Twitter the next couple days anytime a respected analyst comes out with a strong nugget or a strong suspicion that makes sense, then feel free to jump on it. I think you can get really good value. This isn’t like a game line where it’s very efficient, these are very inefficient markets at this point so you have plenty of ability to beat the books by getting early.

Gary Segars:

So long as you’re paying attention, because eventually the lines will move as we have seen from last week to this one. But you’re right, it does take a little bit to figure out whether or not the rumors or the talk is substantiated. Let’s go ahead and jump into our recaps here. Ed, I’m going to let you start us off here. Give us your best bets for the NFL draft.

Ed Feng:

Yeah. Probably the two that I feel best about are the cornerback positions over 4.5, we get plus money. 4.5 cornerbacks in the first round, we still get plus money there. And then Kyler Gordon going in the first round, these are based on the set of sharp mocks that I look at. And then Matt Araiza is the first specialist [inaudible 00:50:13] there as there was when I got at -115 as well. But I think there’s value there.

Gary Segars:

To your best bets for Thursday night. What are you going to take?

Scott Kellen:

Yeah… And there we go. I’m with Ed on this, I think the cornerbacks over 4.5, +110, I think that’s an excellent value. That position is just so highly valued that I think we have an excellent chance there. Same thing with the cornerbacks here, under 3.5, -270. There’s really probably four teams that really need cornerbacks and to me there’s only three really that have a solid chance of going in the first round. And Thibodeaux under 4.5, -230, I just think there’s going to be at least three edge players taken in those first four picks and Thibodeaux is one of those best three.

Scott Kellen:

And then the Gardner over 5.5 and Charles Cross over 6.5. Those have both kind of moved against me, but I think both of them combined, as I said earlier, one is least likely to happen and now with you guys saying Stingley might be the third pick, I like that a lot more now than Gardner. If that actually happens it’ll give us a chance to possibly collect on both and again, if we go one out of two we’re going to make some money on those bottom two.

Gary Segars:

Now that does makes sense. TA, I like your picks, let’s go ahead and let you read off what your best bets are.

TA:

Yeah. The first running back, sorry, first round running back’s under a half is probably my favorite. I know you got to lay a lot of juice, but there’s not many scenarios where there’s a running back taken in round one. Olave under 16.5, I still think there’s a ton of teams that could be in position in that range to take a receiver. And then the two team drafts, I think the Browns taking a wide receiver first. I see it’s down to 200, I still like it, I think anything at essentially even money or above is really good value. So between the two, Commanders and Browns, that’s probably more of my favorite but I think all of those make a lot of sense.

Gary Segars:

All right. And then we will close out with my best bets on this and I may have a few here. Travon Walker to go number one overall, it’s -225 now. I got it at plus money, I still like it. I think it’s a move that Baalke would make so I’m going to take that at -225. First round running backs, I agree with TA, -260 under one half running back. Again, I just don’t see how a running back goes in the first round unless something crazy ends up happening with trades. Kenny Pickett over pick 13.5, -130, I do like that one. Evan Neal as the first offensive lineman drafted, I think that position is up in the air. Ikem Ekwonu or Evan Neal, I’m getting odds with the one that everybody really liked for the last three years, I will take the +125.

Gary Segars:

First round quarterbacks under 3.5. I agree with Scott on this one. -270, it’s a high price but this is not a good quarterback class. I don’t know of anybody that will reach for that but maybe towards the end of the first round, you might have somebody trade back in. That might end up happening, I don’t foresee it. I don’t know anybody that would reach for these guys. Kyle Hamilton, safety over pick 11.5 is -130. Safety just a position that has been devalued over the last four or five years for whatever reason. Daxton hill, top 32, he’s a safety but he’s versatile, I expect him to go in the first round, -225. Still a decent price for him to go in the first round.

Gary Segars:

Those are the best bets for the BetUS NFL draft show. This has been a lot of fun, gentlemen. I want to remind everybody to head over to BetUS and make sure that you sign up, it is where the game begins. Tons of options. We gave you some of our best bets, but there are a lot more on the board. Again, like TA said, pay attention to Twitter, pay attention to your social media, all the different news outlets. Find the journalists that you respect that you know have ties and pay attention. See what you can get before Thursday night when this thing kicks off, it’s going to be an absolute blast. Gentlemen, I certainly appreciate you all for joining me, I think we are going to have a blast this fall once we get the NFL show kicked back in, but Thursday night’s going to be a lot of fun. With that said, we’re go ahead and get out of here. You guys have a wonderful NFL draft and we’ll see you all again very soon.

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