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NFL Draft 2023 | Latest NFL Draft 2023 Prospects & Positions; NFL Picks and Predictions

 

TJ Rives:

Well howdy and we are ready to go with the 2023 NFL show. Twas the day before the day of the NFL draft getting underway. Round number one, Kansas City will be Thursday night, a three-day extravaganza, and we are here to give you a little handicapping advice on BetUS TV. I am the somewhat capable host TJ Rives. We’ve enlisted the help of handicapper Scott Kellen who killed it all last year here on BetUS TV’s NFL coverage. It seems like just yesterday that you were having to put up with me every week. Have you gotten past the fact that I’ve not bothered you for going on almost three months now since the Super Bowl? Brother Kellen, how you feeling?

Scott Kellen:

Hey, TJ, I came back so that’s all good. I’m in a hotel room today and my room service was a little bit late, but thank God it came. I was worried they were going to be knocking on the door. And one last thing, TJ, I want to take you to an article in the Las Vegas Review-Journal, April 20th by Todd Dewey, who’s the handicapping writer there, and the headline of that article was Only Question for sportsbook on the NFL Draft is How Much Will They Lose? The Vegas sports books have lost all six years on the NFL draft. Comes with some caveats, but a pretty good opportunity to win money during the NFL draft.

TJ Rives:

Good disclaimer. Of course, they build those billion dollar facilities in Vegas, not because they lose an awful lot, but they tend to maybe lose a little bit during the draft. Jared Smith is with us. You have seen Jared previously in and around BetUS’ soccer coverage. He is here helping us out with draft analysis. He was saying just before the live show began here on BetUS TV, can we get to Thursday night, for the love of God? All right, we’re not quite to Thursday night yet, but the talking has been going on and been going on and we’re going to come at it obviously from a handicapping perspective here and vary it up a little bit, but I know you’re anxious and there are millions who are anxious for this to get underway Thursday night

Jared Smith:

It’s kind of the calm before the storm now. The draft markets here in Vegas shut down in a few hours, thankfully, because then my fingers scrolling the apps vigorously for the last few weeks will finally end and then tomorrow is kind of the dead zone. I know some of the books outside of Las Vegas will still be operational. In fact, I think there’s going to be live betting for the draft too, which is just absolutely bananas. But this is the most unique event. I would say it’s probably my favorite event to bet on, but it’s also the most challenging because you don’t know when the news will drop.

You have to be ready for these numbers to drop at a moment’s notice. It is fast moving. I’ve had bets where I’m literally in the car driving to the sports book trying to make the bet and they get pulled off the board or the lines move to a point where you can’t bet them anymore. It is a race. It’s the wild west. It’s not like a normal NFL game where one professional has plus three, the other professional has minus three or minus two and a half and the number will go in between it. There’s really no boundaries to where these numbers can go and that’s what makes it exciting but also very stressful.

TJ Rives:

No doubt. And by the way, Jared is not confessing to texting or watching video-

Jared Smith:

No.

TJ Rives:

And other things while driving. He’s not doing that on BetUS TV. He’s doing nothing but operating safely in the state of Nevada. All right, so let me give you the rundown of what we have as we’re coming your way live on the day before the draft. So if you’re seeing us later, et cetera or in segment form, I understand people watch this later on Wednesday and on Thursday and our guys and gals at BetUS TV do a great job of cutting up the different segments. But what we have on the live show, first of all, we’re going to go first by groupings of positions. We’ll get some feel from the handicappers of number of players at a certain position to go in the first round or not.

So some discussion on things quarterback, wide receiver, running back, tight end, et cetera. We’ll discuss that, then we’ll get into some specific players. I think the boys know and understand it’s a foregone conclusion at this point that Bryce Young__, the Alabama quarterback’s going to be the number one pick by Carolina. If it’s not, it’s a bombshell right off the bat, but I think everybody believes that’s what’s going to happen. It’s what happens after that that we’re most interested in and there are a slew of players that we’re going to talk about and you’ll get handicapping advice right here on BetUS TV.

Then we’ll talk about some position plays, potentially, for a couple of players. Where might there be value in these specific players being picked? Then we’ll wind it down a little bit with some more talk on the first overall pick, Bryce Young, his impact, and then here’s the best, some Q&A where the peeps that are with us live here on a Wednesday, as we come your way the day before the draft, can ask some questions of something that we possibly haven’t covered in the time that we’re here.

All right, so plenty to get to on the program, guys. Again, thank you for finding us. Hit the like button. Make sure you’re subscribed to the BetUS NFL channel here on BetUS TV because you get content like this when we do the run up to the season and we do previews, et cetera. Anything that’s going on with BetUS’ NFL coverage will be right here on this channel. Boys, what do you say that we get into this and start talking about different handicapping possibilities here for Scott Kellen and for Jared Smith and even for the host, a little bit. I don’t custom… Scott knows this. I don’t customarily get into the handicapping stuff, but they kept saying, “Hey, we want some insight from you.” I said, “Insight from me?” Yes, they want some predictions, some handicapping from me, so we’ll get into that a little bit as the show goes on, as well.

All right, so let’s get into it. Let’s start with quarterbacks, in particular, and the first proposition is going to be the number of quarterbacks taken in the opening round. Scott, I defer to you. As I mentioned, it’s almost a foregone conclusion that Bryce Young would go first. The names are like CJ Stroud of Ohio State, Anthony Richardson in the state where I am, the state of Florida as a Florida Gator, Will Levis the Kentucky quarterback and others. Give me a feel on how many quarterbacks do you think will have a name called on Thursday night?

Scott Kellen:

Yeah, I think first thing I would say in this TJ, let’s just talk quickly about what I believe are the most important positions and how that relates to the draft. Obviously, quarterback we know most important, cornerbacks very important, edge rushers very important and tackles and that really is both left tackles and right tackles. So I think as the first round goes, teams are going to pivot to those positions because they can help your team the most, if obviously the player that’s available is there and they like that player. We know four quarterbacks are going in the first round. I will be absolutely shocked, of course, if four don’t go. The real question here becomes is there someone deeper that takes Hendon Hooker? There’s probably, if you throw Seattle in there, the Detroit Lions, as teams that potentially could look for a quarterback at some point, there’s probably five to seven teams that maybe will take a quarterback for need here at some point. The fourth one’s probably going to go by the 11th pick if Tennessee stays where they’re at.

So then the question becomes does someone take a flyer on Hendon Hooker later on? Could it be the Vikings? What team’s near the bottom of the draft because I don’t believe you’re drafting Hendon Hooker early on in the first round, so where do you go with that? Over 4 1/2 -180, I guess maybe I’d be inclined to lean that way then under, but I don’t have a good feel for it because it’s Hendon Hooker and do they like him enough to take them in the first round? That becomes the question here.

TJ Rives:

That is the question Jared Smith, because if you’re playing the over it’s because you believe what Scott just said because I think almost everybody believes that Anthony Richardson and Will Levis eventually go somewhere in the first round. Do you believe that and do you believe that Hooker is the swing here on whether it’s over four quarterbacks in the first round?

Jared Smith:

We’ll get to Richardson and Levis and the discrepancies and even CJ Stroud, I know, later in this show and how we feel the quarterback market will shake out. It’s always the most talked about market. It’s always the most visible market, which means you’re probably going to always lean to the over because let’s be honest, everyone’s heard of Hendon Hooker, who’s the fifth best player at his position. Not everyone has heard of the fifth best player at every other position in this draft and that’s why this market is always so unique. You could rename this bet to will Hendon Hooker be drafted in the first round? I really think that’s what it boils down to. And so you just have to analyze Hendon Hooker and the market for him towards the end of the first round. The thing about Hendon Hooker that’s unique, he’s 25 years old, he is coming off an ACL injury.

He played in an offense that I think if you really boil down what their offense is, it’s relatively simple at Tennessee. He had unbelievable talent around him at wide receiver. He would only be asked to scan about half the field. Josh Heupel runs that very uptempo, non-pro set offense. Let’s be honest. What Hendon Hooker did in college is not anything like he’s going to be doing in the NFL. So you have to ask yourself three questions. A, is he healthy? B, what kind of route tree is he capable of analyzing? And C, can he analyze both sides of the field? I think the answer to all three is very shaky. I bet under 4 1/2 in the first round. Now I bet it when it was -115. Obviously the market’s moved against me, so not feeling great about this pick, but when I look at what the market is for Hendon Hooker, I really only see one or two teams in the back half of the first round that would take him.

Scott mentioned Minnesota. I think that’s probably the best case scenario for him, goes to a place where he has a fantastic receiving group and he has a quarterback in Kirk Cousins that is on the back nine of what he’s doing with his career, so he gets a chance to learn and grow and he can heal from the ACL. I still see it’s kind of a coin flip that he goes in the first round. So I think at this price, now that the market’s moved over, I would consider a bet to the under here again at +150, but it looks like the market’s telling me Hendon Hooker is a first round pick. Again, that’s just based off of the market movement from what we’ve seen over the last week. Personally, I don’t know if I would take him in the first round.

I don’t know if I see it with him. I see him more of a Malik Willis developmental type quarterback where maybe he’s thought of to go in the first round, but then when push comes to shove and Minnesota sees another great guy on the board at 23, they look in another direction. So I still think it’s a coin flip here, so +150, maybe you’re getting a little value to the under.

TJ Rives:

And again, I will say to the audience, we’re going to talk about specific players including Hooker. We’ll talk a little less about him because Jared just talked a bunch and gave you a bunch of thoughts on that, here in a couple of minutes. So this is just on the prop, how many quarterbacks in the first round and there’s some good info and some takes from Scott and from Jared. All right, so let’s move on to our second one of these that we’re going to take a look at and that is wide receivers. Now usually the wide receiver class litters the first round of the draft. You can expect at times six or seven of them. Look at that. The over-under is 3 1/2. Jared Smith, I’m right back to you. Does it surprise you on the BetUS line there and elsewhere, is that about where you think it should be over-under 3 1/2 on the wide receivers?

Jared Smith:

Seems fair. Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s a lock. I think Zay Flowers, his stock has been sinking but I still think he’s a first round pick. Jordan Addison and Quentin Johnston, I think, are the guys that are beauties in the eye of the beholder, Addison of course coming off the injury. Quentin Johnston, I think he might be the most explosive receiver in this draft, at least the body fit that you look for when you’re trying to draft the guy and he had a fantastic season at TCU. And you get Jalin Hyatt and Josh Downs who are kind of the flyers there that I don’t expect either of those guys go in the first round. I think this is also a coin flip pick, I think, with the receiver position. For example, we’ve seen guys like Henry Ruggs be overdrafted. I think a lot of the receiver position is fit and what type of receiver each team needs.

But I would lean to the over here because I do think Jordan Addison and Quentin Johnston are definitely worthy talent-wise of being a number one pick. I just think the injuries and the scheme and the fit might push them out. Another thing to keep in mind here with these first round picks guys, there’s only 31 draft picks in the first round this year. Miami forfeited their pick, so that skews things a little bit with the amount of runway you have to get one of your guys in the first round. So I don’t have a wager in this market, but if I had to pick it just based off the experience and also just what receivers are in today’s NFL and how important they are, I would probably lean to the over.

TJ Rives:

Scott Kellen, a thought here where at times again we’ve seen six or seven receivers go in a first round and the over-under number here for 2023 is 3 1/2. Any thought here?

Scott Kellen:

Yeah, I like over. I did play this over, I think it was last week, at even money. I would still probably play it at 125. I think this is a relatively weak wide receiver group, especially relative to last year, for example. I think Jared made a good point on the quarterback, and you can apply this to any position here, is I think it’s very beneficial to look at those last 10 picks in the first round and those teams and what is their need. On the quarterback one going back to Hooker, yeah, you look, I mean there’s only one or two teams there in the back half where he could possibly go that would need a quarterback. Receivers is obviously a little bit different game. You always have to consider a team moving up into the back end of the first round to grab a guy.

And one last thing about just first round picks in general, and Jared, you can correct me if I’m wrong in this, but when you take that guy, and TJ the same, when you take a guy in the first round, you now control his fate in the fifth year as well. So sometimes there is benefits to getting a guy in the first round, even though it’s might be the first pick of the second round, there are some handcuffs there that come with that so you want to think through that as well. But with all that said, there are four receivers basically that I think could go in the first round. The one position I left off by the way when I was talking about important positions that help the team, wide receivers and is the one I forgot to mention. Just by that, just sheer knowledge as well, I think teams will want receivers and I think there’s four. Are they legitimately first round picks?

Probably not. I mean I’ve read there’s only maybe 15 players that scouts have a legitimate first round pick on, but you know what? If you got to pick in the first round, you got to take someone, receiver is again one of those value positions. And I agree, I think Johnston is the biggest body one here. There’s some questions about him. Zay Flowers, yeah, he could be a little bit too light, Addison as well. But I think four are going and it’s enough of a priority position that I’m willing to take over 3 1/2. I think we have a relatively decent chance of seeing that number hit as well.

TJ Rives:

Yeah, and again, Quentin Johnston is the player from TCU. And Jared, I would just add to what Scott was saying, if you’re picking at the top of the second round obviously on Friday night and you’re looking at okay, maybe I want that receiver and I want that fifth year option, you might be inclined to pedal your high second round pick, package with something else to get in on Thursday night because of that fifth year option under the collective bargaining agreement. So you got to watch those teams that are at the top of the second round to jump into the end of the first round, maybe to take a receiver, maybe to take a quarterback, et cetera. It’s a valid point that Scott makes. Anything else to wrap it up here, Jared, on receivers before we move on?

Jared Smith:

I think Scott’s bet was a good bet because I do think there’s options. I think there’s five receivers that could potentially be first round receivers and so because of just how varied this position is… I think Jalin Hyatt is a really good player too, so I think all five of those guys great have the upside of being a first round pick. But again in this market, first of all, I do think the one less pick in the first round changes how I feel about betting over-under first rounds this year changes the denominator a little bit but also the receiver, it’s so volatile because it all depends on, first of all, what kind of scheme you run and what kind of receiver you’re looking for. It’s not like a right tackle where it’s like you could put anyone at right tackle and they fit that position. Receiver, there’s a little more fit there.

You’re looking for an X. You’re looking for a Z, a guy with a big body. Do you have your possession guy? You need a stretch guy, a speed guy. So I do think there’s five really talented receivers in this draft. I just don’t know who really wants to take one at the end of the first round. That’s the biggest question and Scott nailed it. It is the fifth year of control that is very important. That’s why the Ravens traded up into the first round to get Lamar Jackson. We’re having the big discussion about his fifth year right now and I think a lot of that factors into this decision making process.

TJ Rives:

Great point on that. All right, again, if you’re just finding us live here on a Wednesday, thank you for doing so. It is the BetUS TV NFL Draft preview, handicapping preview part two as Gary and the guys did a great job last week with part one of the show. We are part two here with Scott and with Jared on the program. We are going to get to your questions and answers. We’ll probably answer a lot of what you have and we’re seeing some of the comments down below as we go. Our BetUS staff, Antonio and everybody doing a great job of feeding comments down below where we may see some of those. There will be some Q&A towards the end of the show. All right, next up for a position group in the first round and an over-under is the tight end group. Interesting that the tight end under-over is only one less than wide receiver. That’s interesting in and of itself. Scott Kellen, begin the discussion on tight ends. It’s a little thinner maybe again for 2023. A thought?

Scott Kellen:

Yeah, this is a BetUS number and I think this is a very telling number. I did actually play under 2 1/2. I think I laid 280 on the under 2 1/2. BetUS has set this number and this tells me they want to offer tight end but they don’t really maybe want to take a position because I think this is a very, very likely push for everybody at the 2. So yes, BetUS has some great options. I would look for the under 2 1/2 personally because I think Mayer and Kincaid probably go, for sure. Then the question becomes does a third tight end go? I don’t think they’re going to go in the first round. Again, it depends on the tight ends and some of the tight ends that are out there are a hybrid receiver and blocker.

I don’t think someone’s wasting their first round pick on that. There are some others that are more receiver oriented, but I still think teams are going to feel they can get that person in the second round. So me personally, and obviously tight end is not one of those prime positions, although Kincaid could turn into a Kelce obviously, et cetera, et cetera. I feel very good with under 2 1/2. Yeah, you can go take under 2, but I think you’re likely going to push at a 2. I would look forward 2 1/2 and lay the juice if it were me.

TJ Rives:

So Jared, the Kincaid he’s talking about is Dalton Kincaid, the Utah tight end who I think everybody believes is going to go in the first round. The real question becomes Michael Mayer of Notre Dame and/or somebody else for the second one. What’s your thought, Jared, just real quick on tight ends?

Jared Smith:

On market, Mayer is the favorite to go before Kincaid. It flipped. Now Mayer’s the favorite again. When I went to the BYU-Notre Dame game here in Las Vegas in October, I watched Michael Mayer play and I tweeted it out that day. I am very grateful that I watched Michael Mayer play in college because I think he asked Tony Gonzalez vibes. Kincaid reminds me more of a Kyle Pitts type and maybe the Pitts flop and maybe it’s not a flop yet with Atlanta in the top five there a few years ago. Maybe that hurts Kincaid’s stock a little bit. He’s coming off the back injury too where he missed a good chunk of the season. The real question in here to me is Darnell Washington. He’s got the body, I think, to beat out Mayer and Kincaid, but he’s a bit more of a raw talent, the kid from Georgia, who just looks like a house 6’7″.

I mean, he’s absolute monster. I think he’s a guy that if I was drafting a tight end, I’d be very interested in him because he probably can block and you could probably put him at that third offensive tackle spot if you needed him to in the goal line as well. So I think that makes him a little more valuable but probably not a first round pick valuable. He’s probably the first tight end off the board in the second round. So I like Scott’s position here under 2 1/2 and I think 2 makes a lot of sense in the first round. I think Mayer goes first, but I think it’s close. Kincaid is also very talented with his receiving chop. So I would say Mayer one, Kincaid two, Washington three, but Washington’s probably in the second round.

TJ Rives:

All right, good stuff here from our handicappers. Let’s move on to one more position that we’re looking at for the opening round and for the props and that’s going to be defensive backs, if I have this correct, defensive backs in this round. We know two things about the present day NFL. You’re going to throw the ball a bunch. It has become a pass happy league. And the second thing is you better have guys that can cover against four receiver sets, five receivers with the back coming out of the backfield. You better have people that can cover. So it is interesting. Man, a lot of people would look at that line and say on the prop, five to six defensive backs is a bunch for the opening round. Jared, I’m right back to you. Do you say that? Is that a little high for that many DBs cover corners to be taken?

Jared Smith:

Well, here’s the key. Brian Branch out of Alabama, who’s kind of a split safety corner, is going to be classified as a corner in this draft. That is massive. He’s a first round pick. I think that’s a guy that I would consider to be a top 25 pick even, based off of his skillset. But make sure that your book is classifying him as a corner before you wager in this market. That is crucial. If he goes as a corner, yes, I think six is possible. This position to me, I think if I had to rank the importance of positions in the NFL, obviously quarterback is first. I would put corner ahead of everywhere else at this stage of where we are with the NFL. As important as it is to block and to catch, I think defending the pass catcher is becoming more prevalent now.

We saw it last year. Derek Stingley was the late riser in this draft going all the way up to the third overall pick. Then you had Sauce Gardner at four. He won the rookie of the year. I think that is a trend we will see again this year. I think Devon Witherspoon is the best corner in this draft. I think he’ll go as the first corner and I think both him and Christian Gonzalez are top 10 picks. Joey Porter, Deonte Banks, two Big 10 guys, very, very solid. Porter slipped a little bit with his stock, but I think both of those guys are solid in the top 20, top 25. Then you’ve got Branch, Forbes and that’s six right there. Then you’ve also got Kelee Ringo out of Georgia, who’s kind of a split guy in the first round and Cam Smith is another one out of South Carolina.

There’s just a lot of really good corners in this draft and I think this number goes over and I think we’ve seen the movement to the over, and I think this position, because of the way the winds of the NFL are blowing, corner is a premium position now in the NFL. You’re going to see Witherspoon and Gonzalez off the board, I think, in the first eight picks this year.

TJ Rives:

And while those two guys are not SEC corners, Devon Witherspoon and Christian Gonzalez, the SEC always seems to have three or four defensive backs taken in the first round. It’s interesting on Branch, I got the chance on national radio to call several Alabama games the last couple of years and Brian Branch is a ball hog. There is no question about it. And you bring up a key point. Do they classify him as a DB at your book, et cetera? Check it out on BetUS and make sure of that. Scott Kellen, a thought on the number of defensive backs. Is that over-under number about where it should be or is it a little high?

Scott Kellen:

Well I would say, and Jared made the great point, how you classify Brian Branch. If Brian Branch is classified as a safety, I’m leaning under at the plus number. Do we think Witherspoon, Gonzalez, Joey Porter, Banks, Forbes probably going and then it just becomes a question, do you get to a sixth one? I think that’s a 50/50 proposition and obviously quarterback being in a very important position. If Branch is labeled as the cornerback, then I think it’s going over, so I’m going to call it under with Branch as of safety. I think +160 is a good price to hone in on, again if Branch is a safety, cornerback ,all bets off, I would lean over.

TJ Rives:

It is interesting. Kellen and I are older than you are, Jared. Do I see Joey Porter Jr. about to be an NFL draft pick in the first round? I mean, who are we kidding? Wait, I mean, Scott, we’re going to get to the point where it’s somebody’s grandkid that’s in the NFL. That makes me feel really old that Joey Porter Jr., the son of the former Steeler great could go in the first round of this draft on Thursday night or not, so there’s a little conversation on that. Yes?

Scott Kellen:

I believe Mike Tomlin let his dad go. I think he brought him in as a coach, but it’d be very fitting if Pittsburgh then drafted him as well.

TJ Rives:

Right.

Jared Smith:

That would be ironic.

TJ Rives:

With Joey Porter Sr., Joey Porter being there, and this is Joey Porter Jr. We’ve seen this over and over again. Emmitt Smith-

PART 1 OF 4 ENDS [00:26:04]

TJ Rives:

… this is Joey Porter Jr., and we’ve seen this over and over again, Emmitt Smith’s son playing at Stanford last year in college football, and it just goes on and on. How can they have kids already that are in major college football and the NFL? We’ve been watching it for this long.

All right, good stuff there on the props here for the opening round of the 2023 NFL draft as we continue along with the betting preview on BetUS TV. All right, so you see on our rundown, we’re about to get to different players that we’re going to talk about here on the draft, and this will be interesting. Again, we’ll give you some leans and what we are thinking could happen here with some of these different players. We do know this, the NFL every year invites about 30 or 40 of them to come to the draft, and almost everybody that you’re about to see on our list was invited to come to the NFL draft in Kansas City because they believe they’re likely going to be taken in the first round. It may be a surprise that they’re still there in the second round, but that’s interesting. So the names that we’re all talking about appear to be first round names. Maybe a couple of them, thought, there might be some debate, and let’s see what that’s going to be. So let’s begin, guys. Are you ready?

With this name, it’s out of the state of Florida, where I am, the Florida Gator quarterback is Anthony Richardson. What’s going to happen with him? He has obviously wowed with the off-season workouts, in particular the individual workout in Gainesville. You see the measurables on the height, the weight, the athleticism. My thing is, guys, you watch the game tape and this guy is very inconsistent on throwing the football in the sample size that we saw last year in terms of accuracy. All right, gentlemen, we also see on the screen that on the BetUS line, there is an over-under of him to be picked in the top five. Scott Kellen, I’m right back to you. Is Anthony Richardson a top five pick in your mind come Thursday night for handicapping purposes?

Scott Kellen:

I believe, TJ, teams are going to look at potential and upside over just how reliable and confident they are a guy’s going to perform, right? And I think in an Anthony Richardson, you get a guy who potentially has all this upside, right? We know Young’s going. The real question here is going to be what does Houston do. If Houston takes a quarterback off the market by taking Stroud or someone, we know Arizona’s not taking one, maybe they trade back possibly, we know Indy’s likely taking a quarterback. There’s been rumors that they like Levis, right? And I guess if Houston does not take a quarterback, then Richardson’s probably going past the fourth pick unless Tennessee moves up there to get him. I just don’t know if Tennessee will.

And I think there’s enough talent there that possibly someone will take him in the first four picks. It’s conceivable the first four picks, if Arizona trades out, could be all quarterbacks. Worst case, I think he’s the fourth quarterback taken, and maybe even better, so I’m going to go under lean there. I would not bet it, but I would lean under 4 1/2 picks into the first round.

TJ Rives:

All right. So Jared, we see somebody making fun of the fact that… Well, I mean, what was that? He’s doing handsprings at the Pro Day, he’s throwing the ball off the roof of the indoor facility like any of that matters in an NFL game. So Jared, on Will Richardson, what do you think here about the chances of him to go in the top five specifically?

Jared Smith:

Yeah, none of that stuff matters. Again, I’m not an NFL GM, but I have some decent sources that are plugged into some of these scouting departments, and obviously, they love his upside. I mean, what’s not to love? The kid can throw the ball a mile and he can run faster than pretty much any player on the field at any given moment, but that’s not what today’s NFL quarterback position is. It’s about reading, it’s about diagnosing, it’s about being able to throw a curveball, a slide, a changeup, and the fastball whenever necessary, and I don’t think Anthony has all those skills in his toolbox right now. That’s not to say he won’t get there, but to say he’s a top-three pick…

So I bet this market when it opened at over 3 1/2 for Anthony Richardson, and obviously the numbers moved considerably since. I don’t consider him a top-three pick. I don’t think we’re going to see three quarterbacks in the first three picks. I think there’s really only one quarterback worthy of a top-two, top-three selection in this draft and it’s Bryce Young, and from what I’m hearing, there’s not a lot of action and not a lot of need or want, desire for teams to trade up with Houston and Arizona into the top three to get one of these guys, whether it be Levis or Stroud or Anderson. I think it’ll be one Bryce Young and then I think the draft really branches out into defensive players from there, and I think Richardson’s outside of the top three. Could I see Indy going in another direction at four? Maybe. But I have heard that they like Will Levis, and I think Will Levis will go forth to the Colts.

So to me, that makes him outside of the top four, and whether or not you want to bet that at over -325, I understand, but I don’t see him being in the top four. I could see Tennessee taking him at 11, I could see Tennessee moving up to take him somewhere in the 6, 7, 8, 9 range, but I do not see the Titans giving up a ton of capital to move up into the top four to take a guy who’s a project when they have a starting quarterback. Whether or not they like Ryan Tannehill or not, they still have a starting quarterback on their contract for next year. So it’s a tricky spot this year. I think the quarterbacks will end up slipping a little bit more than we think, and I would say Richardson does not go in the top four, which is what this prop is suggesting.

TJ Rives:

All right. So let’s move on to a segue along these lines. You mentioned briefly, Jared, the name Will Anderson. Let’s go right back to him and talk about the Alabama hybrid pass-rushing linebacker. Again, I got the privilege on national radio of calling several Alabama games the last two years. This guy’s a terror. He is a monster out of the SEC.

All right, so as we see on the screen, the over-under for Will Anderson is 3 1/2. Jared, pick it right back up here. How surprised would you be that he’s still sitting there at number four, much less number five, even for somebody that really loves him that might trade into the top three to take him? Jared, what do you think?

Jared Smith:

I’d be shocked if he’s there at five. I think he’s going to go second or third. I think the way I see this draft playing out is we’ve been talking about these quarterbacks for weeks, months. We thought Richardson, Levis, all these guys were number one picks, CJ Stroud was favored to go number one at one point. I think at the end of the day, all three quarterbacks will fall out of the top three. It’ll just be Bryce Young. I think the top three will be quarterback and then two defensive players. I don’t necessarily know the order yet. I think Tyree Wilson’s second, I think Will Anderson third to Arizona makes sense. The Cardinals just hired a defensive-minded head coach, Jonathan Gannon. It makes a whole lot of sense to get who I think is the best overall prospect in this draft.

And when you look at what Will Anderson is, he’s about as good of a kid as he is player. Everything I’ve heard from the pre-draft meetings has said this kid is that leader type who will come in and just galvanize the troops and be the shining beacon, like a JJ Watt type of leader in the community among men in the locker room, and I think that makes a whole lot of sense for a team that Budda Baker wants out. Obviously, a lot of changeover with Arizona, they’re kind of rebuilding. I think it makes sense to draft a kid at three. At the least bit, that gets you to that number at 3 1/2 under +140. So that’s where I would go here. I bet at under 3 1/2 at +205. It’s obviously moved a little bit since. I still think at +140 it’s a good number, and I think Will Anderson does go in the top three. Probably three to Arizona is where I can peg him right now.

TJ Rives:

All right. And so Scott Kellen, I’m interested to hear the Alabama factor. I mean, I have the unofficial number. Nick Saban has had 693 players drafted in the first or second round, it seems like, at Alabama, and here’s the latest one who has been an all-everything pass rusher the last two years for National Championship-contending Alabama. Give me a thought on Will Anderson, and is he still sitting there? Same question I asked to Jared, is he still sitting there at four, much less five? What do you think?

Scott Kellen:

I don’t think so. I think he’ll go to… A lot of this, again, kind of goes to where Houston goes to that number two pick, because I think Anderson’s a more consistent kind of safe pick, if you will, where Wilson maybe has a little bit more upside, and who do you like better, right? I don’t think there’s any wrong answer there. And there’s been talk about Arizona with the left tackle, Paris Johnson. I think that’s probably too soon for them. I don’t think they’re going to take him that high up, as badly as they need some offensive linemen, and I don’t think they’ll be able to trade back necessarily because this is not a super rich draft, so because of that, I could very easily see Houston and Arizona both taking defensive players, which I think Wilson and Anderson are your next two to go, basically first two to go defensively, so I would lean under the 3 1/2 as well.

TJ Rives:

All right, good enough. And we’ll talk about Paris Johnson in just a second here as we’re going player by player. If you’re just joining us on the BetUS NFL live show on a Wednesday, we’re going over some specific players now. We will have some time for some Q&A, but probably a lot of your questions may be answered here as we go over some of the different players and handicapping picks and leans.

All right, next up is an interesting name. While we were talking wide receivers earlier in this show, Zay Flowers of Boston College has been getting a lot of conversation about him. Here’s the big question mark, you see it right there on the screen, listed at 5’9″. Is he legit 5’9″, as in is he maybe smaller? 182 pounds. He’s projected on the BetUS line somewhere around the twenties. 22 1/2 is where the BetUS line has him going. Scott Kellen, I’m right back to you. In your opinion, is Zay Flowers a first-round receiver? Is there still some question about the size? What do you make of this individual and where he might go?

Scott Kellen:

Is he a first-round receiver? Probably not, but I obviously played the over 3 1/2 receivers because I think he will go in the first round. You got to pick, you got to pick somebody, and here’s what you have. But I think there’s a chance he’s going to go later on, because again, other than Jaxon Smith, who I think is the best receiver in this class potentially, and obviously Johnston has some potential there, right? But I don’t think these other three receivers are going to go really super high up. Now, could Flowers go 20, 21, somewhere in that neighborhood? Potentially, but I would still think he’s going to go in the back end of this first round if he’s going to go, so I would be inclined to go over the, what were we at, 22 1/2, I think, right?

TJ Rives:

I think, yes.

Scott Kellen:

Yeah, I would be inclined to lean over that even though you’re laying some heavy juice in that regard. And I think it kind of goes to what Jared said, too, now. Okay, so whoever’s picking after that, what do they need from a receiver, and does he fit into that scheme as well? So I would lean over the 22 1/2 for him.

TJ Rives:

Jared, thoughts here on Zay Flowers’s size a question? Just as an example, DeVonta Smith was all-everything at Alabama, in the top conference in America, Heisman Trophy winner, helped them win a national title. He hasn’t been dominant at the NFL level, and part of it is he’s not that big. He’s got cover corners bodying him, it’s tough to get separation. Aren’t there the same legitimate concerns about Flowers at the NFL level?

Jared Smith:

He matches up much better as a slot receiver, and if you’re going to take a slot receiver in the top 15 of a draft, even in the top 20, 25, then I think you’re reaching a little bit. Now again, I think he has a polish to his game that maybe Smith, Njigba, or Addison don’t have yet, little bit of a younger talent, where Flowers’s a little bit older.

I bet over 21 1/2, and Scott got to move the market maybe perhaps because this thing is moving up. The market has soured on Flowers over the last week or so. You also have to look at where 21 is with this draft. Seahawks at 20, Chargers at 21, Ravens at 22. Yeah, I mean, the Ravens just signed Odell Beckham Jr., and maybe they’re going to go out and trade for DeAndre Hopkins tomorrow, so I wouldn’t bet on them drafting a receiver. The Chargers have just a boatload of talent at that position, and the Seahawks have two top guys under contract for next year as well. So 20, 21, 22, I don’t see either of those teams taking a receiver, and I don’t think Flowers, with his size, is a top-20 pick, so that would lean to the over here at 22 1/2, for sure.

Scott Kellen:

I can see Buffalo possibly at whatever they’re at, 27 or something, right?

Jared Smith:

Yeah, Buffalo’s at 27. That makes sense, absolutely.

TJ Rives:

Maybe for Zay Flowers.

Jared Smith:

Especially if they lose out on DeAndre Hopkins, which could very well happen based on that cryptic Lamar Jackson tweet we had last night.

TJ Rives:

All the cryptic stuff. I don’t think I’ve said it yet on this show, but believe almost nothing that you’re seeing from here on out, including from players on social media and that kind of stuff. Just it’s-

Jared Smith:

Yeah.

TJ Rives:

Stay away, stay away. All right. Except, of course, for the advice, the handicapping advice here on BetUS TV. Let’s give you some more.

Is this man, Paris Johnson, the behemoth tackle of Ohio State, going to be the guy, the first guy to be taken as an offensive lineman? We would attend to think so. Now interesting, the debate there, bottom right-hand corner on his bio, you see listed at 6’6″, 313 pounds, obviously out of a powerhouse program like Ohio State, but would he be drafted before his fellow Big Ten offensive lineman Peter Skoronski of Northwestern? Interesting on that debate on which one is essentially going to go first. Might it be an SEC offensive lineman that goes first? All right, thoughts on Paris Johnson of Ohio State, and will he potentially be the first offensive lineman taken? Jared, you take that first, please.

Jared Smith:

I think he will. I bet this at -150 to be drafted before Skoronski. Initially, it moved towards Skoronski, but then some of the, I would say, more credible draft analysts, especially Lance Zierlein, who I think is the best at this, really, really pushed Paris Johnson to be, I would say, even into the top five perhaps, and I could see that happening as well. He’s the best offensive tackle in this class. He played for an offense that was very much set in a pro system at Ohio State. Northwestern hasn’t had a ton of talent at this high level of the draft, and I think that will hurt them, especially at this position, but I think overall, Skoronski’s a good talent. You have multiple teams in the top 10, I think Philly and Chicago, that should go offensive line here, so I think both guys could go in the top, let’s say, 10 to 15 picks, but I think if I was drafting an offensive tackle today, Johnson would be my pick.

TJ Rives:

Scott Kellen, a thought? Again, Ohio State once had Orlando Pace, Kellen and I are getting older, as the number one overall pick. They have continually had massive offensive linemen drafted in the opening round. Is this guy, Paris Johnson, potentially the first one here as an offensive tackle out of Ohio State?

Scott Kellen:

I think so, and the other reason I would be inclined to believe that as well is Skoronski, they’re talking about, “Yeah, maybe he starts as a tackle, but maybe he’s a better fit as a guard.” And again, a guard is not going to be as valuable as a tackle, so if you’re looking for a tackle, I think your first choice is probably go to Johnson just knowing that Skoronski could slide inside, and I don’t think that’s going to be as valuable. So for that reason alone, I think Johnson has the upper hand on this.

TJ Rives:

Okay, fair enough. On that, let’s move on to arguably one of the more intriguing names, especially on the first night. Will the name Hendon Hooker of Tennessee go in the opening round? We see his bio, off a serious knee injury. There was a lot of discussion earlier in the show about him specifically and where he would be picked. I think one thing to keep emphasizing, 25 years old. So I mean, if you’re making this investment, you’re wanting him to play immediately. This is not a situation where you want him to be sitting around a couple of years and be a 27-year-old or older that hasn’t played yet. And guys, I’m not completely familiar if that was partially not only academic but maybe minor league baseball or something else that has him being a 25-year-old playing that late in his college career. He was at Virginia Tech, he then came to Josh Heupel in the Tennessee offense, was really having a phenomenal season in 2022 before tearing up the knee against South Carolina.

All right, Scott Kellen, I’m right back to you. What about the philosophy that if you are taking him, especially Thursday night in the opening round and getting that fifth year option on the quarterback, you’re doing that basically because you believe this guy should be playing for you no later than 2024, when he is 26 years old? A thought, Scott?

Scott Kellen:

Yeah, and I’ve heard people say, and I forget one of you two, I said this earlier, too, I think it was Jared who said it, what Tennessee ran, it was so simple that there are some doubts there. And for whatever you believe in that S2 Cognition testing, was he at 46%? He wasn’t as bad as Stroud, but processing information wasn’t good. And I go back to what Jared said when we talked about Hooker earlier, like I’m looking at these bottom… From 21 down to 31, because we’re basically saying he has to go in the first round, the Vikings are the only team that needs a quarterback, so do they take him? They’ve kind of, I think, indicated they’re moving on after Cousins after this year. Could someone slide up into the first round? I don’t think he’s a first round talent, so I would say no, but it just becomes a question of how desperate does someone get to get a quarterback, and do they get desperate to try to jump into that?

TJ Rives:

So Jared, along those same lines, the injury concern, he will probably not be ready at the very beginning of the season anyway, and plus, would you want to take that chance? That’s another factor. Just anything else on Hendon Hooker, who we’ve talked a lot about on this show?

Jared Smith:

I personally wouldn’t take the chance in the first round. I did just see on Twitter, they showed him doing drop backs for the first time, and he tweeted about it that he’s coming back from the knee injury. Good timing on that tweet, huh, the day before the draft, right? Again, this is the hard part about betting the back part of the draft. It’s not about what you personally want. It’s about what the teams want and need, and I think that’s a very difficult handicap with a quarterback, because obviously, my brain’s pulling myself in two different directions here. The first part of my brain says yes, absolutely, a team that drafts a quarterback high, let’s say in the first two or three rounds, would prefer to err on the side of having an extra year of control because it is the most important position. So a team would be more apt to reach for a quarterback in the first round than they would say, “Let’s be patient and see what comes to us later on in the draft,” because they want that extra year of control.

Hooker’s an interesting prospect. Again, it took him four years of college football before he finally figured that out, and I don’t know if that translates well to the NFL. He needs the perfect situation in the NFL, I think, in order to be successful. I’m not a hundred percent sure. I would say I’m a coin flip on Hendon Hooker, so you should let the NFL odds dictate your price, because personally, I wouldn’t take him in the first round, but the market is telling me he’s a first round pick.

TJ Rives:

Again, that’s a great point. That’s on the screen there as well, about how much do you know the playbook, route progressions, and sitting in the pocket versus running a spread offense in college, where there’s not as much of a complicated playbook. You guys were alluding to that earlier, all factors on whether you’re taking a first round pick flyer on an injured Hendon Hooker, which again, ifs and buts. “Ifs and buts were candy and nuts, we’d all have a merry Christmas,” as the saying goes. If he’s not injured, he’s a guy that you’re probably talking about Heisman contention, Tennessee national title contention, and we’re talking about him going in the top five maybe. But real life, you have the injury and now you have the concerns.

All right, let’s move on. Another interesting player to take a look at here on the BetUS 2023 Draft preview is the tight end from Georgia, two-time national champion, Darnell Washington. Interesting that under the tight end discussion that we were having earlier, would he be a first round pick? The guys seem to indicate they don’t think so. So they’re in the bottom right of his graphic. Would he be below a 35th pick at the beginning of the second round on Friday night? Jared, I’m coming right back to you for a thought on that. Is Darnell Washington top-of-the-second-round-worthy out of UGA, where they have had some tight ends previously go in the top couple of rounds of the draft? What’s the thought, Jared?

Jared Smith:

I’ll be honest, I could see a universe if I was the one picking here where in five years, Darnell Washington’s the best tight end prospect of this entire class. He has everything you want a tight end to have, including just mammoth physical ability. He’s the Anthony Richardson of this tight end class. The polish might not be there, but he played at a scheme in Georgia that utilizes the tight ends. Todd Monken is a wizard. And I think when you look at what Georgia was as an offense last year, if I was evaluating the tight end class, Darnell Washington would be my guy. In fact, I wouldn’t be shocked that there was a team that took a chance on him in the first round. And I know the market’s leaning against that, but he has…

And because of this position, I think this position has become more prominent in recent years. You can thank Travis Kelce for that. And that’s why I think Darnell Washington has a lot of upside. The market’s telling us he’s a second round pick. The market tends to be right on this stuff, but if I was picking in the second round and I needed a tight end, and even at the end of the first round. I think the Dallas Cowboys are the perfect example. Dalton Schultz, probably not coming back. To me, this is a guy that I would absolutely look at. He is explosive. When you stand next to him, it’s like you’re standing next to an NBA player, and that’s what the tight end position is these days, Antonio Gates, Tony Gonzalez, boxing people out. So personally, I’m very high on Darnell Washington. I bet it’s under 38 1/2. I think he’s off the board really quick in the second round if he’s even still there.

TJ Rives:

Scott Kellen, a thought here out of the Georgia program? Because Georgia more than likely will have six, seven names called on the opening night. This might be one of those names. Any thought on the monstrous Georgia tight end here?

Scott Kellen:

Well, I think if we get to the second round, then we’re talking about the first three picks, and you’re talking about Pittsburgh, Houston, and Arizona. And again, he can kind of be a offensive lineman for you as well, obviously, right? As well as a pass catcher. So you could argue all those teams need offensive lineman as well to kind of assist with that. I don’t think Pittsburgh’s taking him from a receiver standpoint. They’ve got their tight end in that regard. I don’t think Arizona’s doing it. Maybe Houston.

And so I think it really boils down to those first three picks because as much as I agree with Jared, I don’t think he’s probably going in the first round, because the Packers, they’re now at 13, they need a tight end, I don’t think they’re taking a tight end that high up at 13. So now everything starts to slide back a little bit. I do think Dallas will probably get one of those other two, Kincaid or Mayer. So I’m going to go over the 34 1/2, but I think he’ll go off the board, kind of like Jared said, pretty quickly in the second round.

TJ Rives:

All right, good enough. We move along. Again, we will come to some Q&A. As you see there on our screen, we’re getting there eventually. You’re getting a bevy of handicapping advice on the opening night in particular of the NFL Draft, but we’ve even sneaking in some conversation of what might be there on Friday for the second and the third round. Again, the draft in Kansas City, first round, Thursday night. They went to this about 12 years ago, 12, 13 years ago, where the first round is a standalone, kind of like it’s been compared to the Oscars, the Academy Awards, everybody’s on the red carpet, the whole bit. Then you get into the roll-the-sleeves-up second and third round on a Friday night, and then really dive into who can be a valuable pick, fourth round, fifth round, sixth round, seventh round all throughout Saturday when the picks come much more rapid fire. So a three-day event in Kansas City. We’re here handicapping some of it for you and going over some of the prominent players right now. We will come to some Q&A live on this Wednesday here in a few minutes.

All right, let’s go to Devon Witherspoon. Interesting out of Illinois. Devon Witherspoon, we should say, is the defensive back that many believe will be the first one taken. I’ll tell you this, guys, the ReliaQuest Bowl, what was the former Outback Bowl, is the New Year’s Day game here in Tampa Bay, where I am affiliated. I was on the local radio call of the Illinois game with Mississippi State, and we knew that Devon Witherspoon had opted out because basically, he understood, “I’m more than likely a top-10 pick, and the only thing that happens here is either I look bad in the Bowl game and/or I get injured. There’s nothing in this for me if I’m looking at being a top-10 pick.”

All right, so the BetUS line has him, bottom right-hand corner there, over-under at 6 1/2. Scott Kellen, there’s an Illinois defensive back, not an SEC defensive back, but the Big 10 always has quality DBs. Is Witherspoon worthy of being a top-six pick? What do you think? Handicap it.

PART 2 OF 4 ENDS [00:52:04]

TJ Rives:

He being a top six pick. What do you think? Handicap it.

Scott Kellen:

Yeah. I think there’s a chance Detroit takes him and I’m just looking at the board here. If Detroit could… Who’s right after them? The Raiders. The Raiders are… I think the Raiders are definitely taking a cornerback. Yeah, there’s a quarterback question there, but I think they’re going to definitely take a cornerback. So, then it really becomes does Detroit take him or not and I think… And, I also think that there’s a high chance that Witherspoon goes before Gonzalez as well and really it comes down to these two cornerbacks.

Witherspoon I think has the attitude and all that from a cornerback position. Gonzalez has got a little bit more height that some teams may like. But, I think Witherspoon.

TJ Rives:

So, let’s take a look at this if I can interrupt.

Scott Kellen:

Yeah.

TJ Rives:

Let’s take a look on the graphic because the BetUS line also for him to be picked before Christian Gonzalez is minus 260. This is the same player not only to go in the top six. But, how does he stack up on the BetUS line here going against Christian Gonzalez of Oregon? Scott, continue on your point now that we’ve seen that on the screen.

Scott Kellen:

Yeah. I would look to take him actually and I did bet him. I think I bet it at minus 250, so basically the same line. You know, I get a little worried that somebody might like the height of Gonzalez better, like the Raiders, for example, especially if Detroit ends up for some reason not going cornerback and then it comes down to that. But, I still… I think Witherspoon is the probably better cornerback long term and so I… And, the market’s kind of pricing that obviously as well. So, from my standpoint, yes, I think there’s a decent chance he could go in the sixth pick. I’d feel better about just taking him ahead of Gonzalez rather than the sixth pick just in case for some reason you’ve got Anderson or Wilson still there that maybe Detroit decides to take another edge rusher instead. I would prefer to play him over Gonzalez more than anything.

TJ Rives:

Jared, a quick thought on Devon Witherspoon of Illinois, out of Bret Bielema’s program, on both of those points about him being a top six player? And, would he be the guy to be taken as the first DB instead of Christian Gonzalez of Oregon? Quick thoughts?

Jared Smith:

[inaudible 00:54:17] was the guy when I was in my car driving that I couldn’t get to the window fast enough. It moved from eight and a half to seven and a half. I still bet under seven and a half on Witherspoon. It kept moving down to six and a half. Again, my point from last year… My biggest bet of last year’s draft was Derek Stingley to be taken in the top five and the first corner selected. I think the cornerback position is becoming more and more premium by the year and I think Washington fits it. I think he fits the mold. I think Detroit at six makes sense. I think Vegas at seven makes sense because it’s a coin flip there. Eh. Probably wouldn’t bet the under at six and a half now. I think seven and a half was a much safer bet. But, I do think he’s the first corner off the board. I think he’s the better of the two.

Gonzalez has smoother motions perhaps coming out of his break, but Witherspoon’s got the toughness, the size and the ability to stop the run and I think that’s a Big 10 corner I would much rather prefer based off of that and what you’re drafting at that position because Gonzalez is a fantastic talent and they had a lot of tough games in the Pac 12 where he had to defend. But, I do think Witherspoon right now is the better prospect. I think he goes first in the cornerback market.

TJ Rives:

And, again, as we discussed earlier in the show for those that are maybe joining us late, will we see seven or more defensive backs in the opening round? You can’t have enough cover corners in the NFL. You got to be able to cover three and four receivers over and over again, play after play, in the NFL. So, interesting on Witherspoon.

All right. Let’s go back to a Georgia football program that has a massive defensive tackle in Jalen Carter. He is viewed as arguably the best defensive lineman in this draft. He’s a defensive tackle. There are some questions about his motivation. Now, obviously Georgia won the national title, back to back national titles. Six three, listed at 314. All right. Thoughts here Jared on whether or not Jalen Carter goes in the top five? I’m interested in this as well but I’ll get you to tip it first. What do you think about the Georgia D tackle going in the top five come Thursday night?

Jared Smith:

Big move on him to the under in the last 24 hours or so. I saw a seven and a half here in town. It got bought up, six and a half. Now, that’s heavily juiced to the under. So, it looks like he’s a top six pick. I think if you looked at the order in that spot, I think Seattle makes a little sense at five. I think if you looked at what Jalen Carter is, I think he needs two things. One, he needs a head coach that is a player’s head coach. I think Pete Carroll fits the mold. I also think Dan Campbell fits the mold with the Lions at six there. I think I could see him being a kneecap biter and I think that vibe fits what the Lions are trying to do.

So, I think five or six makes the most sense for him. If this draft was last year and Carter doesn’t have his off the field issues, he could be the number one pick in this draft. He very well could be. But, I do think teams are a little more wary because of the situation that I think that’s going to cost him a few spots. Top five, I would not play it at that price because I really think the Seahawks at five are the only team that are really in play for him in the top five. I think the Lions at six make a lot of sense too. So, I think under six and a half would be the only bet I’d be wiling to make. But, at this point, you’re not going to find a good price on that.

TJ Rives:

Interesting. Again, what Jared is referring to is Jalen Carter is still involved in the investigation and the charges were already out there for street racing in the death of his teammate and the female staff member at the University of Georgia that was at the wheel. They were both killed in a traffic accident the night of the Georgia celebration in Athens where they did the parade after the national title. And, Jalen Carter is being charged with having lied about whether he was involved in street racing that other vehicle or not. Background issues just in general always seem to come up. I don’t know if it’s going to cost Jalen Carter or not. We’re about to find out if background issues are maybe a reason why he would drop. What is your handicapping take, Scott Kellen, on an immensely talented defensive tackle and whether he is still there after the top five?

Scott Kellen:

I think… I think Seattle’s going to take him. I think this… Yeah, he’s got some issues, but I think this talent is just off the charts from everything I read. You know, I pay a lot more attention to the NFL. College, it’s more… For me, it’s more reading what everyone thinks about the guy. Pete Carroll has shown definitely he will take troubled players. I think to… I can’t remember which one of you guys said it, but he needs a player’s coach and Pete Carroll is definitely that. There’s just so much talent there and Seattle needs somebody on the defensive line and I think let’s face it. Seattle’s not taking tackles. They took those last year. Had a lot of success with that. So, they’re not going that route.

Yeah, maybe an edge rusher if Anderson or Wilson slips a little bit and falls down there. But, I think the talent with Carter is just too much that’s… A guy like Pete Carroll, a defensive coach, he’s going to like, wow. Let’s go. This is great. Right? And, this is going to be a part of a building block for us. So, I think… And, I don’t remember what the odds were exactly, but there’s probably… You’re probably going to get better odds if you… Because, to Jared’s point, I don’t think he’s going in the top four, so he’s got to go five. I would look to see what the odds are on the actually fifth exact pick. For Carter, you probably have better odds than taking him in the top five. And so, that might be a better way to play it.

But, I think there’s a high, high chance that Seattle takes him.

TJ Rives:

All right. Interesting again on the Georgia defensive tackle. And, I’ll just tell a quick story here on BetUS TV. The most famous example, at least in modern history, of teams talking themselves out of a controversial guy as the first round pick is all the teams that talked themselves out of Warren Sapp and it was 28 years ago Sunday where Warren Sapp was available and numerous teams, including the Philadelphia Eagles, very infamously fell in love with a guy named Mike Mamula. I don’t know if Jared knows that name. Scott probably knows that name.

Jared Smith:

Yeah.

TJ Rives:

Mamula was great in the T-shirt and shorts at the combine for the workout and suddenly everybody was in love with his workout and they fell out of love with Warren Sapp because of questions about failed drug tests and other rumors about problems. Warren Sapp is now in the Hall of Fame 28 years later. I don’t… Did Mike Mamula even play like three seasons in the NFL? I don’t think he did.

Scott Kellen:

I don’t think so. [inaudible 01:00:46]

TJ Rives:

So, you’ve got to be careful. You got to be careful in these things about how you’re judging college kids for a problem or two and whether that keeps you from taking a player. Go ahead, Scott.

Scott Kellen:

And, remember, the Warren Sapp thing I think was marijuana or something, which today, whatever. Right?

TJ Rives:

Mm-hmm.

Scott Kellen:

And, I don’t… I want to be sensitive. Two people lost their life and all this and that. Right?

TJ Rives:

Correct.

Scott Kellen:

But, this is racing cars. It’s not like this guy… You know, I… Again, I don’t want to dismiss that two people lost their lives, but he’s racing cars. There’s a lot worse things that a guy could be doing. He could be going around shooting and killing people with guns and, you know, I just…

TJ Rives:

Right.

Scott Kellen:

I think teams will be a little bit more flexible on that [inaudible 01:01:27].

TJ Rives:

Well, and we know this. We know he’s been doing pre-draft interview. Jared, pick up on this point. Where they’re directly talking to him. And, here’s another thing. And, again, I’ll pull the curtain back a little bit. I worked for an NFL team, for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as part of their radio broadcast. Again, say a little prayer for your boy here because I will be sitting and talking nonstop Thursday night for the Buccaneer NFL Draft party on the flagship station. We start talking at about seven Eastern time. We’re still talking at eight Eastern time, nine Eastern time. Just like the TV that you’re seeing do the live draft show, we’re doing the same thing waiting for the Buccaneers to pick. So, we’ll be talking about this a bunch.

My point is though, having a little bit of insight, the teams have security reports on these players that are different than maybe what even their school knows or maybe even in a lot of cases what the authorities know because they have done all kinds of private investigative work or whatever. My point, Jared, coming to you, is they’ve been talking to Jalen Carter about this and if the answers are the right answers and good answers, I think that’s the key. That’s critical. We don’t know are the answers are good answers, but you know there are teams asking. Jared, pick up on that with Jalen Carter.

Jared Smith:

Laremy Tunsil the night of the draft sent out a picture of him smoking a bong mask and he is now one of the best offensive tackles in the league. So, and again, marijuana has been kind of decriminalized across the country in recreational use across the country, so it’s not as big of a deal I think as street racing. But, there is a lot of upside to Jalen Carter and that’s the part of this specific bet and this specific situation that makes it very hard to handicap from a certainty perspective because we just don’t know what’s going on in these interview rooms.

Now, like I said, the market is our north star in the sky that is telling us he is going to be taken in the top six. The market has been very, very prominent move to the under over the last 24 to 48 hours. So, my guess is some of that information about how he did in the meetings probably got out to somebody who knows something with a big bankroll and they’ve been hammering his under six and a half. So, I do think Seattle at five makes a ton of sense. And, again, I think Detroit at six makes a ton of sense. I would not be betting him in the top five at minus 170. If you can find a reasonably priced under six and a half on Jalen Carter, and by reasonably priced I would say minus 200 or shorter, which is about a 66% implied odds, that is probably the bet to make on Mista Carta.

TJ Rives:

And, Scott, I think you were asking about what the Seahawks would do. On the BetUS line, Jalen Carter plus 300 to go to the Seahawks.

Jared Smith:

Big bet. I’d make that bet.

TJ Rives:

So, we’ll see. Is that the team that ends up with him? And, as you mentioned, Pete Carroll has taken a couple of reclamation players. I mean, there were questions about DK Metcalf coming out of Ole Miss, out of the same conference. How has that worked out for the Seahawks to take him?

Scott Kellen:

Yeah.

TJ Rives:

Later on in the draft. To the point.

Scott Kellen:

And, [inaudible 01:04:16]. I feel like Pete Carroll would get in there and just say, “Let’s just be honest, dude. I love your talent. Let’s just talk through this. Right? Don’t BS me here. Right?.” I just feel like Carroll has a way to talk to people and [inaudible 01:04:31].

Jared Smith:

[inaudible 01:04:30] player’s coach.

Scott Kellen:

Right? You know, some guys might go in there and just try to catch him in a lie and say, “Okay, we’re passing on from this guy.” But, you know, I think Carroll is better suited [inaudible 01:04:39].

TJ Rives:

To your point… To your point, there have been questions about DK Metcalf’s work habits, what kind of shape he was in. And, if you guys remember this… I’m not saying we’re going to take our shirts off here on the show, but Metcalf came into the interview with the Seahawks at the scouting combine without his shirt on.

Jared Smith:

And, they loved him.

TJ Rives:

Ripped like a [inaudible 01:04:55]. And, you know what Pete Carroll did? He took his shirt off at almost 70 years old and said let’s get after it. Let’s get comfortable. To your point about that being a different player’s coach, that mentality. That’s a great story that you jogged me on there for that one.

All right. Let’s go to one more. I believe that we have one more on the different players here that we’re interested on and that player… Actually, there’s two more. Is one of the intriguing names in terms of the top of the draft. Will Levis, the Kentucky quarterback, a transfer from Penn State where he didn’t play very much. Played the last two years at Kentucky. Had a better 2021 than he had 2022. The measurables are there. The arm strength is there. The question… Take a look bottom right hand corner on his bio. Would he be taken before C.J. Stroud in this draft? Jared, give me a thought on this. And, you’re also interested in would he be behind Bryce Young, hypothetically, as that second quarterback taken at the same time for a different valued play. Jared, thoughts on Will Levis, the Kentucky quarterback.

Jared Smith:

[inaudible 01:06:00] says he is the second quarterback off the board. Market says Colts at four is kind of the low and two to the Texans could potentially be the high. But, again, I don’t think the Texans will go with an offensive pick at that two spot. I think they’re very comfortable passing on C.J. Stroud and Will Levis and I think Will Levis will be the fourth overall pick to the Colts.

I bet him to go before C.J. Stroud at plus 130 when this market dropped. You can obviously see the market has just been completely obliterated since. I think the S two score was the final seal, deal sealer there. When you look at… And, I know C.J. Stroud’s score has been put in question recently. Maybe it wasn’t as low as it was reported. But, it was significantly lower than where Will Levis’ score was and to me I just think that matters a lot and I know C.J. Stroud had a ton more success in college and he certainly looked the part against Georgia in the national semifinal.

But, I think some of the interview process and some of the intangibles with C.J. Stroud during this pre-draft process, at least from what we’re hearing, has been very negative and I think that’s opened the door for Will Levis, who interviews well, looks great on film, at least in shorts and a T-shirt. I think his tape in the game film probably leaves a little something to be desired. I think the fact that he couldn’t beat out Sean Clifford at Penn State leaves a little something to be desired. Me being a Penn State alum was following that competition very closely.

But, I still think the market is telling us a pretty solid story here that he’s the second quarterback in this draft and I think four at Indy is kind of his floor here.

TJ Rives:

Scott Kellen, a thought on the big armed quarterback. Kentucky not known for having big time NFL talent at quarterback. Let’s just say it. Much different in Kentucky basketball for that vernacular. And, again, if you watch Levis and you put the tape in against some of the more prominent teams when they were going against Florida, when they were going against Georgia, he was average and at times he had interceptions, et cetera. Welcome to the NFL and what that’s going to be every week. A thought on Levis being taken before Stroud in particular?

Scott Kellen:

I think all the things Jared said and then the other thing, whether it’s fair or not, but these Ohio State quarterbacks haven’t really materialized. I mean, we’ll see what happens with Fields. Right? But, I think some of the thought there is you’re playing with a crap load of talent there and you’re throwing to guys many times that are wide open. Sometimes it’s hard not to thrive. And, then you go to a Kentucky team. Like, how much talent’s really on that team? Playing in the SEC. You know, you could make the… You can make the argument if you flip flop those guys, who does better.

Stroud obviously looked great against Georgia. There’s that little glimpse there. I’ve seen some rumors that Houston maybe will take Stroud because how can Houston pass on another quarterback. We’ll see. So, that probably has me cautioning a little bit. But, it just sounds like there’s a lot of people who love some of the things with Levis that would put him in front of Stroud. And, again, if that S two score is there, the knock on Ohio State quarterbacks, all that kind of stuff, that’s enough possibly to put him behind Levis and supposedly Indianapolis is linked to him as well. So, I would lean that way.

I probably wouldn’t bet it just… I’m a little worried about… We don’t know what Houston’s doing. That thing is.

TJ Rives:

Right.

Scott Kellen:

I’ve seen people interview GMs that are like, we got no clue what they’re doing. So, are they laying low? And, quite frankly, why do they need to hide to a degree? I mean, unless they’re trying to trade out, because we know what number one pick is, so they basically have the number one pick, if you will. Right? But, there’s a little bit of question mark there.

TJ Rives:

We do know this. DeMeco Ryans, the former San Francisco defensive coordinator, is now the new head coach. DeMeco Ryans. Follow this. Connect the dots. DeMeco Ryans played college football where? At Alabama. Will Anderson is a potential game changing pass rusher from where? Alabama. So, sometimes this stuff is not complicated on what Houston may do versus taking a quarterback. Or, do they maybe what you just theorized, Scott, trade out of the second spot, trade backwards three or four spots or to whomever is trying to move up and then take their quarterback later. Move back in and take their quarterback later with the draft capital they got. We don’t know. It’s a great question on what Houston’s going to do.

Scott Kellen:

Hey.

TJ Rives:

Yeah.

Scott Kellen:

And, one other thing. Correct me if I’m wrong in this. Is it Stroud’s agent is the same agent as DJ Watson.

Jared Smith:

Yeah. [inaudible 01:10:31]

Scott Kellen:

And, they may not want to be associated with [inaudible 01:10:32].

Jared Smith:

Stroud’s not going to the Texans. I can almost say as certain as I am Bryce Young’s going first overall. C.J. Stroud’s not going second to Houston.

Scott Kellen:

Yeah.

TJ Rives:

Interesting.

Jared Smith:

I feel almost 100% confident [inaudible 01:10:43].

TJ Rives:

All right. There you go. Some good handicapping advice on that. Again, I promise we’re coming to Q and A in just a couple of minutes. If you’ve been patient with that, with us here on the live show on the Wednesday before the draft. One more player to talk about, and speaking of Ohio State, a guy that C.J. Stroud was throwing to is Jaxon Smith-Njigba and he, Chris Olave, Garrett Wilson two years ago, and of course both those guys went in the first round. They have been destroying Big 10 defenses the last two or three years. I believe it is a foregone conclusion that Jaxon Smith-Njigba is going to be a first round pick. The real question becomes where.

And, you look at the BetUS line. The over under at 12 and a half. Jared, I’m right back to you. A thought. Is he still there at number 13, the Ohio State receiver?

Jared Smith:

I think he is. I bet his over at…? What price did I get? It was over to 12 and a half at minus 190. So, it’s been bet up a little bit since then and I think it makes a whole lot of sense. And, when you look at… The irony of it is I think the Jets at 13 would have been a perfect candidate if they still had their first round pick in that spot because they probably want to get another receiver for Aaron Rodgers and now it’s the Packers I could see taking him at 13, which would be ironic because when was the last time they took a receiver in the first round. It would be almost, again, ironic if they took a receiver in the first round the year after trading for… Trading away Aaron Rodgers, who clamored for that for years.

So, I think 13 and 15 there, Jets and Buckeyes, or Jets and Packers for the Buckeye receiver makes a ton of sense. But, that is of course over 12 and a half.

TJ Rives:

Scott Kellen, a noted Packer guy himself. A thought here on whether or not Smith-Njigba is still there at 13 for the over under on the BetUS line?

Scott Kellen:

Well, I think the two teams right before that, Tennessee, who we know maybe goes quarterback obviously, and Houston, who certainly could use a receiver and they could take him. Right? I think the better play here is to take him as the first receiver taken. Now, you might have to lay like minus 400, so that’s a high, high juice. But, I would be absolutely shocked if he is not the first receiver taken and I would probably feel, even though it’s a lot of juice, I’d probably feel more comfortable laying that juice rather than 12 and a half just in case he slips into that 11th or 12th position.

I don’t think Packers will take him. They could certainly use him. I think they will go tackle because Bakhtiari is probably gone after this year or an edge defender because Rashan Gary, we don’t know when he’s coming back and they badly need that as well. But, obviously the Jets could. But, I’d feel better taking him as the first receiver taken than taking that over 12 and a half position.

TJ Rives:

All right. We move along on the BetUS NFL Draft preview show for a Wednesday, the day before the opening round in Kansas City coming up. Eight Eastern time, seven local time is when that first round begins. First round only on Thursday. Second and third round on Friday. They conclude the draft with rounds four through seven on Saturday. It’s become a three day event, an extravaganza where there will be hundreds of thousands of people over the three days that will be in and around Kansas City for the draft, for not even a game, for the draft. It’s incredible what this has become.

All right. You see on our screen we’re now going to move to a couple of position selection plays from the handicappers. And, we’ve already talked about both of these guys so far. We’re coming to the Q and A here in a few moments. But, let’s take a look on the position selections. Again, what do we think of the play on first wide receiver drafted there for minus 400 for Smith-Njigba? We talked about Zay Flowers earlier. Would the…? I mean, who else besides this guy is the play for the first receiver to be taken? Or, if you’re making this move, it’s got to be this guy. It’s got to be the Ohio State receiver. Scott, a thought real quick?

Scott Kellen:

I just go back to kind of the opposite of what I said about Ohio State quarterbacks and let’s look at the Ohio State receivers. They’ve actually performed well. And, then you’ve got… And, they were saying. Remember, you know, he didn’t really play much at all last year. I think maybe the first three games a little bit. But, they’re saying he might be better than Garrett Wilson and Olave and obviously he had a great year there the year before. I just don’t see anybody else getting drafted. Yeah, Johnston’s got the kind of height and whatnot, but I think there’s enough flaws with him that I just don’t see anyone else getting drafted before him at the receiver position.

TJ Rives:

Jared, a thought on that. Is it just a foregone conclusion this guy’s going to get taken or could Quentin Johnston of TCU or somebody else slide in there? Thought?

Jared Smith:

Minus 400 is telling you 80% implied odds. I would cap this at 99%. So, you want to find a little value there, sure. But, you’re not going to get rich here. But, again, at this stage of the draft process, these numbers, the market has been pummeled to a bloody pulp. You’re not going to find much value at this stage. You just have to bet certainty. I am again 99.9% certain that JSN will be the first receiver off the board but it’s not a bet that I’m running to the window here at minus 400. But, I do think there’s a little value still left in the market. Just a little bit.

TJ Rives:

Yeah. You look at… You look at some other Ohio State receivers even recently. Michael Thomas was fantastic on their national title team and went in the first round. I mean, there is obviously some legacy with the Ohio State receivers. Not so much with the quarterbacks, like Scott was talking about. I mean, when you start going back to the Heisman Trophy winner Troy Smith as an NFL player, uh-uh. Terrell Pryor. I mean, stop me guys when there’s one that knocks you over here.

Scott Kellen:

Art Schlichter?

TJ Rives:

Braxton… Art Schlichter. Yeah. That’s going way back. Braxton Miller recently, who did well. Remember Cardale Jones everybody was in love with for the Big 10 title game and the College Football Playoff in 2014? Not an NFL quarterback. So, that might be a knock that has C.J. Stroud drop a little bit. I don’t think he’ll drop beyond like the top 10, but that’s just me saying that for that point.

All right. Again, back to Will Levis. One more thing on draft position selection. Let’s debate this prop off the BetUS line. It is minus 280 for him to be the second quarterback drafted. I mean, Jared, you just went over this a bunch, that we believe there’s a strong likelihood he would be the second quarterback drafted. Any thought on playing that prop or playing the prop of the third quarterback to be taken, whether that’s Stroud, whether that’s Anthony Richardson who we’ve talked about, or somebody else? Any thought, Jared?

Jared Smith:

I think that number is probably fair. I think at this stage, I’m about seven or eight out of 10 scenarios where Will Levis is the third or fourth or fifth pick, somewhere in that range depending on trades. Of course, maybe Indy gets a little, little nervous at four and they trade up to three. But, again, from what I’m hearing, there aren’t a lot of important people that are really, that are interested in trading up. Excuse me. Let me rephrase. There’s not a lot of excitement about trading up for this class, whereas Arizona wants to trade back but you need a trade partner in order to trade back. So, I still think Indy at four makes the most sense and I don’t see Stroud or Richardson jumping those two numbers.

So, if that’s the case, again, I think it’s fair though at minus 280, minus 300. That’s implying 70, 75%. I don’t see there being a lot of value.

PART 3 OF 4 ENDS [01:18:04]

Jared Smith:

70, 75%. I don’t see there being a lot of value at this number at this point, but I do think he is the second quarterback taken.

TJ Rives:

Scott Kellen, same kind of question. Should you be looking more at the third quarterback as a value? And whether that is Stroud, Richardson… Thought, Scott?

Scott Kellen:

Well, if Stroud’s not going two to Houston, and Jared’s convinced of that, obviously, then it becomes, who does Indianapolis take? Yes, someone can move up, of course, but you’re going all the way back to really, maybe the Raiders, but otherwise you’re going back to Tennessee. I don’t think they’re moving up that far. So now it becomes, is it Levis or is it Richardson? I think Levis is the guy. The only reason it could be Richardson possibly is you’ve got an Indy head coach, who came from Philly, who worked with Jalen Hurts, possibly he sees some of the same stuff there, but it sounds like Indy’s in love with Levis, so I think Levis is your second guy going.

Jared Smith:

The market is very definitive on this point, TJ. The one thing I’ve noticed in the market movement over the last week is the quarterbacks not named Will Levis and Bryce Young, are not really getting a lot of love. I thought it was one guy, now it’s two guys. The market on Stroud and Richardson, the bottom has just dropped out of it. Those guys have just been really bet to the over of their respective numbers.

TJ Rives:

I still believe there’s going to be a team either in about the sixth, seventh, eighth position, or trade into the top 10, that will take Anthony Richardson. Watch it happen. Just on the hype.

Jared Smith:

The Titans. I think the Titans, or, I’ll be honest, I’ll throw a… Here’s the curve ball scenario that I put a little wager on, that is more of a flyer. Are we 100% sure the Ravens don’t want to draft a quarterback in the first round? I got that at eight to one and I put a little more than I probably should have, on it, because I think the Ravens are going to make a move at some point to get their next quarterback, because they are not an operation, an organization that operates without that position set, and it makes sense for them. Maybe it’s Hooker. Maybe it’s Richardson, if he drops. They’re picking in the low 20s there. I think the Ravens might be a team that we would be interested in taking a quarterback if one becomes available at a fair price.

Scott Kellen:

Hey, let me go to TJ and say Tampa Bay.

Jared Smith:

Yeah. Exactly.

TJ Rives:

Yeah. I know there’s a lot of talk of whether the Buccaneers, at 19, would be looking at a quarterback. They did have both Hendon Hooker and Will Levis in their building as two of their 30 interviews. You can have 30, the limit is 30, up to 30 interviews with all players in all rounds, total. 30. Two of them, they spent on Hooker and Levis, just to have conversation. Is that a smokescreen by Jason Light and company, sitting there at 19? You’ve got Baker Mayfield.

Jared Smith:

Just due diligence.

TJ Rives:

Sure. They’ve got-

Jared Smith:

I don’t look much into the visits, because I think, if anything, you want to bring in guys you’re not interested in, because you want to get other teams to be like, “Hey, what’s going on there?”

TJ Rives:

There you go smoke. Smoke, with that, yes, exactly.

Jared Smith:

So it’s all a poker game, guys, and you know this. You’ve been betting on more drafts and analyzing this for longer than I have, but the reading of the bluffs is probably my favorite part of this whole process. Trying to-

TJ Rives:

You believe nothing. Believe nothing that you’re hearing, except on BetUS TV right now, for the rest of today or for Thursday. We keep saying that. At this point, it’s all liars, folks.

Jared Smith:

Can we start this draft already, guys? I am so-

TJ Rives:

I know, I know. All right, I promise we’re coming to the Q&A, live here on the program. I’ve been promising that over and over again, but let’s take one more look at something interesting here, and that is the first overall pick. Again, there’s no real value here on Bryce Young as the first overall pick, but let’s take a look at this, at least graphically here. We haven’t really talked a lot about him. Well, first we’ll talk about Tyree Wilson, the defensive end, the edge rusher of Texas Tech, and where he might be going. Would Tyree… Again, here we have the connection to a defensive-minded head coach, DeMico Ryans, in Houston. Look at that number, +125, for him to be the second overall pick. Again, the Bryce Young number is ridiculous, everywhere, for him to be the first… There’s no value there, for him to be the first overall pick. Almost a foregone conclusion. What about Tyre Wilson as the second overall pick? Jared, a thought on that?

Jared Smith:

This market’s been pretty hot and heavy the last couple of days. Peter Schrager’s convinced that the Texans are taking Tyree Wilson at two. I have some friends in the business that jumped on him to be the first defensive player taken at a very fat price, and that number’s been bet down to minus money now, and I could absolutely see that being the case. He meets the criteria of what you’re looking for in a top edge rusher. He didn’t work out for teams because of his injury. Maybe that hurts him a little bit. I bet under four and a half, as kind of a hedge to my Will Anderson position, because I got Will Anderson at such a good price at +205. The only guy that I thought really was going to hurt me was Tyree Wilson. So I bet under four and a half at -160.

I won’t lose both bets. I might win both. I don’t think I’ll lose both. And again, when you bet +205 and -160, as long as you don’t lose both bets, you’re guaranteed to make money. And so I do think he is a guy that I could see going in the top five. The injury might be what hurts him there. So, would I pick him? Would I bet him right now at +125 to go second overall? No. That’s not a good number. I think under four and a half makes sense if you consider who’s picking second or third, but I’m starting to hear some rumblings that Arizona, maybe Paris Johnson is the guy at three for Arizona, so maybe it’s only one defensive player in the top three, either Anderson or Wilson. I am very convinced either Anderson or Wilson will be in the top three. I’m leaning Anderson, but I think Wilson’s been the high flyer of this group because of his physical upside. So I think I’m torn on this position, right now. I would not bet that second overall, though, at +125. I do not think that offers any value at this stage.

TJ Rives:

Scott, any quick thought on Tyree Wilson? I did see him, again, national radio, I called the Texas Tech-Texas game. He made a couple of huge plays in that game. Had a good season for whatever it’s worth in a largely bad defensive conference, the Big 12. But could Tyree Wilson be that pick for Houston, who’s regionally in the state of Texas, for DeMico Ryans, the new coach, defensive-minded coach? Any thought on that?

Scott Kellen:

I think Jared said it. Potentially more potential there. More sustainability with Anderson. You kind of know what you’re getting there. I’m not comfortable taking a two. We talked about this earlier. Jared kind of said it. I think the top three picks, basically anything under four, I think more comfortable. I have seen that Kyler Murray wants Paris Johnson, all that. As good as he is, I think three is a little high for that, and Arizona still needs plenty of… Arizona needs a lot of help across the board. And there’s a lot of offensive linemen that are available. Maybe not if you get into the second round as much, but top four, yes. Two, not necessarily.

Jared Smith:

Yeah.

TJ Rives:

As we come back around to it again about DeMico Ryans, a former Alabama star, and again, he’s the former 49er defensive coordinator who’s now the coach, it makes so much sense for Will Anderson. Let me preview my reaction. Even though it’s going to be a radio show. While I’m doing the radio show early on in the 8:00 Eastern Time hour, if Houston keeps the pick and picks a defensive player and it’s not Will Anderson, this will be my reaction while I’m doing the show. There’s a preview on BetUS TV, that DeMico Ryans wouldn’t take his Alabama guy in that instance, with Will Anderson, and would instead take Tyree Wilson of Texas Tech. That’s me saying that on BetUS TV.

Hey, back to Bryce Young, and then I promise, Q&A is coming. Bryce Young, the Alabama quarterback. Again, there is no value on him being taken first overall. Look at that, -1000. Just a quick thought from both of you. Scott Kellen, there are questions about his size, his measurables. Do you believe that is a hindrance? Do you believe that is a legit question about Carolina taking him, and whether he can succeed at the next level?

Scott Kellen:

I’ll say a couple things. First of all, you worry about him getting hurt, but I think there are certain quarterbacks, Russell Wilson comes to mind, who has a knack to avoid taking a big shot. And I don’t know if Young’s got that knack or not. He’s been injured. The right guy can, I think to a degree, avoid getting hurt. I also saw something where they said Baker Mayfield, for example, very short, the trajectory of his throw is more into the offensive line, where it sounds like Young has a little bit higher. I think the release point’s a little bit higher so they don’t think that’ll be quite as big of a problem. And then it sounds like all the other intangibles there for him are off the charts great. So I think you take… I’m not an expert on this, but the people who know, if they think all those other things are in place, I think he’s worth taking a flyer on.

TJ Rives:

Jared, I think it’s worth mentioning again, I got the privilege of calling several of his games the last couple of years and he just tore people up in the SEC, powerhouse conference, and Bill O’Brien is a former NFL offensive coordinator who was using movement, moving him around in the pocket, using little rollouts, that kind of thing, to give him throwing lanes. Tell me more about how big of a concern is his size at the next level? What is your opinion?

Jared Smith:

Yeah, I think there’s two avenues to handicap here. First, the in-game stuff, and of course you’re worried about the size, but personally, I wouldn’t be worried about it. If I had the number one pick in this draft, that’s the guy that I would take. That was my gut, the entire process, when the Panthers made the trade for number one, Stroud became the number one pick, I actually have no idea why, became the favorite to be the number one pick, at least, in the betting markets. I have no idea why. And if you were really smart, you grab Bryce Young at +200, +250, when that market flipped. Then we saw the S2 scores and then that pushed the number back down to a price that I think was still betable in the -300, -400 range. And then to me, the moment when I finally shoved my chips to the middle was when he canceled his other pre-draft meetings.

At that point, Bryce Young told you he was getting taken first overall. The market, for about 30 minutes to an hour, was still flashing -400. I made a large wager, -400, at that price, because again, I was 99.9% certain at the moment that he canceled his pre-draft workouts, that he was going first overall. But the market at -400 was telling me it was only an 80% implied odds. Again, are we going to get rich betting this? No, but it’s a nice way to start your draft, knowing you’re off to a good start picking the number one selection. You get a couple of units in your bankroll and off we go. So I thought at that point, it was a foregone conclusion. Obviously at -1000, that’s a 91% basically implied odds. Not a lot of wiggle room there. No value at this point. However, when Cousin Ronnie came out on Reddit the other day and tried to move Will Levis to the number one pick, I was waiting, guys, with my trigger finger ready to go, hoping we would see a -300 or a -400 once again from Bryce Young. It never got to that point. I think -700 or -800 was the low that I saw after cousin Ronnie did his thing. So-

TJ Rives:

Is it legitimately the username, Cousin Ronnie? Because even if it’s not, that is still classic.

Jared Smith:

No, but his Reddit name is… I have no idea. But Will Levis confirmed it was cousin Ronnie, and he also confirmed, don’t believe everything you see on the internet or read on the internet. Like we needed to be told that. But again, it all goes back to how you perceive value. To me, the difference between 80% at -400 and 99.9%, which is where I have Bryce Young going, there’s enough of a gap there to make a little bit of a wager. At this price, -1000, I think that ship has sailed.

TJ Rives:

And again, what he’s referring to is the rumor’s been out there, Scott Kellen, on Reddit, for whatever it’s worth, the sub social media site, that Will Levis supposedly told family members and others that the Carolina Panthers told him, “We’re taking you.” And so then all of a sudden, all this buzz is going… But I didn’t know about the username being Cousin Ronnie. That is fantastic on that, if that is the case.

All right, we got a few minutes left. We have gone for a while on this show. Great job, guys, with a lot of stuff. And a lot of the audience is still hanging in here. Hit that like button if you have not done so. Again, subscribe to this channel, the BetUS NFL channel. It’ll be the fall and football and previews before you know it in August, and then the season in September. So make sure you’re subscribed. We’re giving you a bunch on the N L draft. Let’s get to some Q&A, just real quick.

“You guys were touching on Michael Mayer earlier in the show, the tight end for Notre Dame.” Barry wants to know, where will he go? Do you have a team fit or two, Jared or Scott? Jared, you want to go first? Do you have a team that might be interested in the Notre Dame tight end, per se?

Jared Smith:

Let me pull up my chart, here. Cowboys make the most sense at 26. Dalton Schultz, again, being the deciding factor there. I’ve also got small percentages on Detroit at 18, and the Chargers at 21, but I think the Cowboys at 26, based off of where his number is, compared to who’s picking in that window, I think that’s probably the most likely scenario. Dallas at 26.

TJ Rives:

Thought, Scott, on where, what team might grab Mayer of Notre Dame. Do you have one?

Scott Kellen:

I think Jared hit the teams. I think Dallas is an also obvious one. I mean Green Bay. But I don’t think Green Bay’s taking a tight end that high up.

Jared Smith:

Yeah. No.

Scott Kellen:

And I think Kincaid maybe goes before Mayer, which just makes this really interesting, possibly, because if those other teams Jared mentioned don’t go tight end, then is your first tight end to Dallas? Then maybe it’s Kincaid. But I think I feel very comfortable, if you want to take a team position, I feel pretty comfortable with Dallas at a tight end position. It’s just a matter of if somebody else goes before that. And I do think Kincaid possibly goes before Mayer, but it’s, again, who do they like most?

Jared Smith:

Cincinnati at 28’s intriguing as well.

Scott Kellen:

Yeah, yeah.

Jared Smith:

Hayden Hurst being the guy that is the deciding factor there, with his contract situation.

Scott Kellen:

I thought about them too. They may go cornerback, they could use some help there.

Jared Smith:

Yeah.

Scott Kellen:

And they got some other needs. Maybe offensive line again.

Jared Smith:

It’s tough to say in the draft, to pick who’s going to be picking where, because the trades…

TJ Rives:

Oh, absolutely.

Jared Smith:

So, to me, to handicap the trade market, the trades don’t happen as much in the high part of the draft as we expect. That’s more smoke. The trades tend to happen towards the end of the first round-

TJ Rives:

That’s right.

Jared Smith:

… teams moving up into the end of the first round to take a player that they want, and get that extra year of control. But at that point, there’s so many permutations through the first 20 or 25 picks, it’s really, really hard to peg who goes where, in the last 10 picks of the first round.

Scott Kellen:

Great.

TJ Rives:

All right, good enough. Julian, watching us, has a question for Jared. He says, “Jared, thoughts on Brian Branch?” Who you did talk about earlier. You can repeat a little bit of that on the show. And he says, “Do you think he gets picked in the first round?” A thought again, Jared, on the Alabama DB?

Jared Smith:

Love Brian Branch. Love him to Jacksonville at 24, to the Giants at 25. Love him in the first round. I bet under 27 and a half on Branch. It moved to 29 and a half. I bet it again under 29 and a half. Just smaller bets there, because again, later in the draft, not as certain with the permutations that kind of play out there, but I feel very positive about the cornerback market in this particular draft. Branch being classified as a corner counts in that market as well. But to me, 27 and a half, which is where I think his number is now, very, very favorable to the under there. So yes, that would make him a first round pick, in my eyes.

TJ Rives:

And again, Alabama DBs have been consistently taken and consistently good in the NFL out of the first and second round. Scott, any thought on Brian Branch or you want to move on?

Scott Kellen:

I agree. The only thing I would say is even if they classify him as a safety, he is a hybrid, can go in the slot, and there’s value there. So we know safety doesn’t necessarily get prioritized, but because of his hybrid role, he’s going to be prioritized.

TJ Rives:

My man, Flash, who you see all the time on the world sport, on the football with the round ball, the soccer, he wants to know about my Buccaneers at 19. He’s querying me about the Buccs at 19. Again, I would be shocked if it’s a quarterback. I don’t have inside knowledge, but I would be shocked if it’s a quarterback. I’m more inclined for Flash’s boardroom here, about the Buccs picking in the first round on the Q&A about offensive line help. Maybe one of the tackles. I don’t think Paris Johnson’s still going to be there, but maybe the Tennessee tackle’s there…

Jared Smith:

Broderick Jones, Darnell Wright.

TJ Rives:

Yep. Yep. Darnell Wright of Tennessee. Maybe the Georgia tackle. Maybe it’s a pass rusher. Maybe there is a pass rusher that’s there. An edge rusher. You can’t have enough of those. For the Buccs at 19, that would be my thought on that.

F [inaudible 01:35:14] is watching, says, “What do you think the Ravens do with their first pick?” Jared gave some thoughts about Lamar Jackson and about, would they take a quarterback? Scott Kellen, do you have a thought on the Ravens, and positionally, what they might be looking at, in the opening round?

Scott Kellen:

I think they also need cornerback, so they could go that route. I saw something interesting today. Who knows if he’ll fall, but a Bijan Robinson running back, the fact that they bring in Beckham, are they trying to get all these offensive weapons to make Lamar happy? I think that’s an interesting twist as well. But I definitely think cornerback, receiver, certainly they could go receiver as well. Who knows if they go quarterback? That whole Lamar thing’s a mess, obviously.

TJ Rives:

Again, Jared, a thought on a position, if it’s not quarterback, what might the position be for the Ravens?

Jared Smith:

Yeah, again, my position here is quarterback, but that is strictly speculative. There’s no hard information pointing me in that direction. I just thought it’d be a fun, chaos, nuclear bomb to drop in the draft-

TJ Rives:

You love mayhem. Just say it. You love mayhem.

Jared Smith:

… if the Ravens-

TJ Rives:

Yes, exactly.

Jared Smith:

If the ravens take a quarterback in the first round… And you know what it reminds me of, frankly? It reminds me of when the Packers took Jordan Love in the first round. A very similar situation, actually. And I put the Packers on the same level as the Ravens, in terms of their organizational structure. Very tampered, very controlled, very measured. They don’t reach for guys. They take positions of value. And if Hooker drops to the end of the first round in that 20s range, and let’s say the Ravens move up, or excuse me, trade for a guy outside of the draft, and move back… Again, lots of succinct scenarios that could take place at the end of the draft.

In terms of the actual probabilities that I have handicapped at this point, Deontay Banks seems to be the most likely option. Defensive back out of Maryland, played in the state of Maryland, that’s ironic enough, but I do think defensive back, in terms of the betting markets, makes the most sense for them. That’s what the favorite is. So I think Deontay Banks there at that 22nd spot, makes a lot of sense for the Ravens, the corner out of Maryland.

TJ Rives:

Yeah. And here’s a quick story, too, about the craziness and what happens if the Ravens were to take a quarterback. You go back to that draft, what? About five years ago. Five, six years ago. It was actually six years ago, the 2017 draft, where the Chicago Bears had already signed Mike Glennon away from my Tampa Bay Buccaneers as a free agent quarterback. So the night of the draft, they’re doing the draft party thing, like I will be part of. Many teams do this. They have players there as a meet and greet. So who is one of the prominent players they have at the meet and greet? Is Mike Glennon, because they’ve signed him to a huge free agent contract. He’s going around shaking hands with sponsors and fans. Meanwhile, the war room for the Bears, trades up, remember, infamously, in that draft, from three to two. They traded a number one pick to go grab Mitch Trubisky.

And this is the truth, as it’s been relayed, the Bears staff went, “Somebody needs to go get Mike Glennon out of the glad-handing room, out of the handshaking room, because we’re about to take his eventual replacement, here. We’re taking Trubisky.” So they went to go get Glennon. Yeah, you’re good on the handshakes and the greeting, at least for right now, because of what we’re doing. Anything can happen. Get ready. Anything can happen tomorrow night.

Hey, Mike has a quick question on the Q&A. We’re almost done here. “Do we think that Lamar Jackson plays this season, or does he sit and play chicken in the contract squabble?”

Jared Smith:

No.

TJ Rives:

Scott Kellen. Thought?

Scott Kellen:

I think he plays. He doesn’t have any control here, right? He can sit out this year and sit out next year and sit out… Is he going to quit? So he’s better off just doing it. You know what he’s probably best off doing, by the way? Is hiring a fricking agent and working this [inaudible 01:38:57].

TJ Rives:

Yes.

Jared Smith:

Bingo!

Scott Kellen:

And just putting this thing to bed. But I think he plays.

TJ Rives:

Jared loves the chaos. He wants the chaos to continue. Jared is, he playing or is he sitting?

Jared Smith:

[inaudible 01:39:05] if the Ravens trade Lamar Jackson tomorrow and draft a quarterback in the first round, drinks are on me. Drinks are on me.

TJ Rives:

All right. We’ll look you up.

Jared Smith:

I’ll be very plush with cash.

TJ Rives:

Let’s just see. Let’s just see what they end up doing.

Jared Smith:

I do think he plays next year. I think he probably plays-

TJ Rives:

He’s got, what? 30 million reasons to play next year, right?

Jared Smith:

Yeah. I think he plays-

TJ Rives:

On a one year deal.

Jared Smith:

I think the best case scenario is the Ravens sign him to an extension. I think the worst case scenario is he plays this year for the Ravens without. I think the middle ground is he gets traded. But I’m not really sure there’s a market for him. And I think that’s the issue Baltimore’s probably having, right now.

TJ Rives:

All right, good enough. Man, guys, we have been here for a while, on the show. Excellent job on the BetUS NFL Draft Prediction show on the day before the draft. Covered a bunch from different players, different teams, et cetera. We’re almost there. We’re almost to the finish line. Scott Kellen, a final thought before we’re gone here on BetUS TV, before the 2023 draft begins? Three day process, Thursday night, Friday night, Saturday afternoon. Any final thought?

Scott Kellen:

No, just looking forward to it. I love what the NFL did. You got just the one day of first round, which is great to focus on. Rounds two and three, I think are fabulous, really for teams. I read something the other day where I think the largest percentage of snaps played in the NFL last year, I believe, I may get this wrong, came from people picked third round and beyond. So we focus on the first round, but ultimately it doesn’t really become the most important factor to build in your team. And I just love it because you start to see the pieces, the missing pieces for teams, that ultimately lead us to helping make some decisions come September. And so it should be a great three days of watching the draft.

TJ Rives:

Yeah, most teams that succeed, year in and year out as playoff teams, are the teams that have done well in the third and the fourth and the fifth round, at evaluating and finding and developing talent because it’s cheaper to fit them under the cap. And if they’re good and they’re cheaper, that means your team is going to be good. This is not complicated. Jared, final thoughts here before we’re done.

Jared Smith:

I think Scott nailed it with the way that the teams shape themselves out. For example, last year after the Jets had their fantastic draft, their win total got bought up significantly high, right in the month, the weeks after that. So I’m sure Scott’s not excited about this, but our season prep for 2023 starts on Sunday after the dust settles, maybe even Saturday once we get the first round and things really get settled from that, because the markets will start to move. The win total markets, the division markets, all that stuff will be impacted by what happens this week. So the off season in the NFL does not exist. It is a 365 day slog. That’s what they want. That’s the goal. That’s how they make the most money from the advertisements. And yeah, the NFL season really does begin, I think the fiscal year, for me at least, from a betting standpoint, really does start on Thursday.

TJ Rives:

And people, if you have any doubt, and I don’t think if you’re watching this show, you have any doubt, as to why we just sat here for the better part of an hour and 45 minutes, there will be in the neighborhood of eight or 9 million people watching on Thursday night, let me say again, between ESPN, ABC, the NFL Network, and on the handheld devices, the iPad, the handheld device, 8 million or more will watch this. That’s more than the NBA playoff games, the Stanley Cup hockey games. More than games. That’s how much interest there is, in this. And these guys have done a tremendous job helping handicap it here for a Wednesday.

Scott Kellen, I look forward to being with you in the fall. Jared Smith, hopefully we’re with you as well in the fall. Good luck, guys, with the draft handicapping and the wagers you’ve made. Thank you, both of you. Excellent stuff here on the program. Thanks also to Antonio, all the staff behind the scenes at BetUS TV. Tremendous job from you guys, with all the graphics and all the stuff that you saw on the show. Let’s get to the draft on Thursday night. The wait is almost over, and we’ve been talking about it here on BetUS TV.

PART 4 OF 4 ENDS [01:43:32]

 

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