NFL Early Lines Preview | NFL Week 7 | NFL Odds + Browns vs Broncos Game Picks

Maka:

A mix of mismatches based on current NFL standings and the second round of bye weeks for this season has made this a very interesting week for anyone attempting to predict how the NFL’s week seven will play. But this is what our NFL guys are here for to hook you up with the best football content as the regular season action continues. Stick around because our NFL show is about to start.

Matt:

NFL week seven fast approaching. We’re here to take an early look at some measures on the betting board. But before we get there, some big news to share. The BetUS official YouTube channel has just hit 10,000 subscribers. Thank you so much to everybody in our audience who’s been a part of this community. Go ahead and subscribe to the channel, if you haven’t already for some good content that we’re going to keep coming your way, and throughout the course of this show.

Matt:

Of course, if you’re with us live on YouTube, feel free to jump in that chat. Ask us any questions you have. Let us know what you think as we take our initial look at the week seven board. Because guys, it’s our shortest board of the season. So far, six teams on bye. That leaves us with just 13 games to work with. Scott, when we have a slate like this, what’s your initial approach at this stage of the week?

Scott:

Well, I think first of all, Matt, just like any other week, you’re just trying to find some plays that work, obviously. Like you said, it’s a shorter slate. Maybe there aren’t as many plays as the week goes on. If the card is a little bit shorter, in terms of plays that I’m actually playing. I’ll just try to see if there’s anything else out there. Maybe in player prop bets.

Scott:

Cris talked about alternate lines, different things, team total points, just seeing if there’s some value somewhere else that can still make sense and produce something of value. If not, then you take it with a shorter card and you move on to the next week.

Matt:

Yeah. Cris, would alternate lines and other derivative that’d be a bigger part of your portfolio in a week like this versus maybe a 16 game board that we’ll have again later on in the season?

Cris:

No. I’m just going to sulk because we’ve got four high spread games, and five out of the six bye teams are teams we all love to see play every week. Why don’t they split it up a little bit? It’s as bad as all the early games starting at 1:00 p.m. Eastern, and then only a couple at 4:00 p.m. Eastern. But seriously, yeah, I will look. I’ll have more time to look.

Cris:

I don’t want to misrepresent that I’m going to go out of my way to find something to bet needlessly out of desperation. But they will give me more time to look at some alternatives, because there’s going to be a handful of games I’m not interested in getting involved in right off the bat.

Matt:

Yeah. Well, on that note, I think that just because we might have a lack of compelling matchups this week doesn’t mean that there’s a lack of good betting value all together. We’ll roll up our sleeves and get to work shortly here. Friendly reminder as we come across any edges. If you want to get down for yourself and you’re listening to this, you can always sign up at BetUS using the promo code NFL2021 to collect a 125% bonus. For more information on that offer, you can check out the link below this video.

Matt:

On that note, let’s move ahead with the show, guys, and kick it off by taking a look as we do at our record so far this season. I feel like it’s a good sign if I’m bringing up the rear with a winning record. Cris and Scott, you guys have been on quite a roll lately, a really nice week six showing from each of you. Of course those records you’re supporting would be even nicer if we saw a different outcome in the Monday night game.

Matt:

Last night, we talked about it on Friday show for week six. Cris, you and I going head-to-head with you laying the points with the Bills, I took the Titans and felt pretty nervous about it. But I think we saw that when Buffalo, as good as they are, doesn’t get an advantage of multiple turnovers in a game. They can still be competitive. Tennessee has some good fortune to win that one.

Matt:

But buffalo not necessarily invincible without that big turnover edge. On the other side of the coin, you think if they can get it together in the red zone, the Bills might be even more dangerous.

Cris:

Well, That’s where they really hurt themselves. Buffalo Bills is 26th in the league right now in red zone offense getting in the end zone. It’s ridiculous, I think, to start the game they’d already kicked 12 field goals from being in the red zone. It’s amazing to think that they were putting themselves in that position. When you do that on two consecutive drives, boy, you start to give that home team that you’ve been running over some confidence to build off of and you let them break a run and it changes the whole complexion of the game.

Cris:

But we did have Buffalo up by seven somewhat late in the game. We knew the game was going to go either way at that point. It pretty much mapped out as much as what I expected it to be. I think Tennessee really came to play. I think we can all agree that they really stepped it up an extra notch. But I don’t think they showed up at the start of the game like that. I think their confidence build as Buffalo allowed it to build.

Matt:

When you talk about those red zone issues for Buffalo, I know sometimes there might be fundamental issues with a team if they can’t run the ball or if they’re built more for a vertical game and the field shrinks that can affect their offense adversely. Also, there can be a lot of noise to red zone efficiency in any given game or small sample size of games.

Matt:

When it comes to Buffalo over the long haul the rest of the season, do you expect them to see some positive regression here, or are there any underlying issues that you’re going to be keeping a close eye on?

Cris:

Well, how can there be positive regression? They’re only converting 55%. They have nowhere to go, but up. But isn’t it funny how if you had the team on offense, how hard it looks to get in the end zone. If you’ve got the team on defense how easy it looks to get in the end zone, have you ever noticed that?

Matt:

Yes, indeed. Scott, another point Cris touched on. The Titans did come to play last night and that did not bode well for your teaser or the under for the game. How do you deal with the aftermath of a double whammy of a result like that on Monday night to wrap up on otherwise stellar week?

Scott:

Well, it’s just a game, right. But it’s funny. I think the game was maybe three and a half the first quarter. I’m like, “Wow. This looks great. My under looks great. Buffalo is looking pretty good.” But I was texting a buddy of mine to Cris’s point. You go down there twice and you settle for two field goals. You’ve basically taken up 25% of the game. In one swoop, and this is before Henry made the run, everything could be gone. You haven’t taken advantage of where you need to.

Scott:

The one thing that I noticed in the game is Buffalo is a very finesse team. Obviously the Tennessee, they’re a little bit of an exception NFL, but a very physical team. That seemed to give them a little bit of problems. If you’re finesse team, maybe you’re going to struggle a little bit in the red zone potentially as well. But do you expect positive regression? Have you looked at their schedule the rest of the year?

Scott:

My God, it’s the Jets twice. It’s the Dolphins. It’s Atlanta. It’s Jacksonville. It’s Carolina. This team doesn’t play anybody. Because I was looking I’m like, “That’s a pretty big loss. They lose home field advantage in Tennessee. Should they tie?” They tie because they ain’t playing anybody and they’re still obviously a very good team. A lot of these easy opponents on the schedule should be fairly easy for them to take care of.

Matt:

Yeah. I think that the Bills … I’ll agree even though I was on the Titans last night. I said in the breakdown, Buffalo still on the inside track for that number one seed. They might have some competition aside from the Titans, another division. The AFC North has a heavyweight emerging in the form of the Baltimore Ravens. I think we can use that, Cris, to touch on.

Matt:

The Ravens won over the Chargers this past week, not just what we saw on the field on Sunday, but what we can take away moving forward, because you’ve touched on it in both of our shows last week. Brandon Staley taking an optimal approach to things for the Chargers, but that can also mean a lot of variants. We saw the good side of it against the Browns in week five. We saw the whole other side of it against the Ravens in week six.

Cris:

Yeah. It was just nice to share some actionable info to consider and watch it come into play off the first game. Just to repeat what was mentioned is when all these different teams starting to do different strategies, there’s going to be a little bit more variance. If teams start to have more the philosophy that Stanley has, and they don’t care if they lose by a point or 20 points.

Cris:

Well, now all of a sudden there’s added value looking at a Baltimore against the San Diego laying seven and a half instead. Or maybe even 10 and a half. Go ahead and take a look at those derivative markets and see if you can find some value there.

Matt:

Yeah. Scott, I thought I saw your hand come up. Did you have anything to add to this one?

Scott:

Well, I was just going to … This happened the week before when they were playing Cleveland, too. But certainly with Baltimore, we talked about the Chargers really bad defending the run. Obviously, this played into Baltimore’s hands. I’m just looking at the success rates for this game. The Chargers, first of all, they only ran the ball 33% of the time from a success rate standpoint. Meanwhile, Baltimore was almost 70% success rate running the ball.

Scott:

I wasn’t on the game. But it was a clear matchup advantage from that standpoint. They don’t always play out that way. But this game played out exactly to the tee of what we thought maybe might happen from a matchup standpoint.

Matt:

Yeah. Plenty to take away both from just the result on the field on Sunday, as well as, for the Chargers and their approach to games, a lot to think about moving forward to Cris’s point about looking at alternate point spreads, maybe other derivative markets. Also, something I touched on leaning heavily the Chargers’ way on a teaser.

Matt:

But you probably don’t want to do that, because teasers are good if you have a low variance game in mind. The Chargers for the first time in a while this year looking they might not be such a low variance team anymore.

Cris:

Yeah. I wouldn’t be teasing a Charger game. That’s the last team I’m going to be teasing.

Matt:

Yeah. Maybe if they’re a decent-sized favorite, maybe. But especially as a short dog, probably best off to stay away until we can get a bigger sample size on the Brandon Staley regime. On that note, I think we can move on from the week six recap and look at our risers and fallers for the week. Our team on the move up this week, Cris, your nomination, the Minnesota Vikings. No argument from me.

Matt:

What did you see that had you put the Vikings as your number one team moving up as we head into week seven?

Cris:

I was surprised. Again, I have a metric model that I use in his 55 categories, offense and defense and simply put Minnesota Vikings had the largest move percent by the numbers of any team, which surprised me because that game was tied late and anything could have happened. It didn’t seem it was that overwhelming of a performance for them to make a jump like that. But they did a lot of things as well.

Matt:

You’ve mentioned a couple of times now having 55 metrics in without having you divulge everything. Because of the result of this game, you also expressed a little bit of surprise that the Vikings being that number one riser overall within those 55 metrics. Is there anything you can share that really popped off the screens and make you think, “Okay. This game went to overtime.”

Matt:

But maybe one or two of these metrics you look at that the Vikings really set out digging deeper on that week six performance.

Cris:

I think in comparison to last year, Minnesota was always 30, 31, 32 in defense. I don’t have my numbers in order. But they look like they’re 16 or 17 this season, which is a considerable difference. They’re getting it done defensively. That’s what’s important.

Matt:

Yeah. If I recall correctly, when we were previewing the Vikings in August, the thought was that if their defense can just go from among the worst in the league to roughly average, that could be a big upgrade. They didn’t need a good defense to necessarily be a good team.

Cris:

Yeah. It’s not just against garbage. Don’t forget they held Arizona down that one week, too. They’re making strides.

Scott:

Hey. I’ll just add on there, too. I mean, they’re putting a lot of pressure on the quarterback. They missed that a lot last year, because of injuries and whatnot. They dominated this game. Carolina scored … I’m trying to remember here, because I had Carolina in a teaser. I felt lucky to even get that part of the leg home. I think Carolina blocked a punt possibly or maybe got an interception. They got a really short field …

Matt:

[crosstalk 00:13:41] opportunity for a touchdown.

Scott:

Yeah. Yeah. There was a few other things that they didn’t really do a whole lot. I’m looking at success rate. Minnesota is 50% success rate, Carolina was 42%. Carolina was … where was it here … 29% success rate throwing the ball. They were awful. I mean, you look at Minnesota schedule, Minnesota’s played a fair amount of good teams this year as well. It’s not surprising to see them jump up for it.

Matt:

Yeah. The Vikings convert that short field goal at the end of the game in Arizona, to your point, Scott, they’re four and two. They’re the only team that’s given the Cardinals a loss to this point in this season. Also, I’m not sure if anybody is fully convinced that Dalvin Cook fumbled in overtime in week one in Cincinnati. The Vikings really just a couple things here and there from being a one loss team this deep into this season.

Matt:

This was just big for them to get back to 500 after some rough breaks early on. Building on what you said, Scott, plus 2.3 yards per play. They had that block punt return for a touchdown that they had to overcome. I mean, they were up by eight, the Panthers sitting on their own four, 4th and 10. Less than two minutes left. I think that game state is much more indicative of the Vikings performance than the fact that this one ended up going to overtime.

Scott:

Right. Agreed.

Matt:

All right. We’ve got the Vikings on the rise here. On the other side of the spectrum, a team that we already haven’t been too high on, but still on the way down even further, perhaps, the Washington Football Team. Scott, this was your number one pick for the faller of the week.

Scott:

Yeah. I look at yards per play and then I look at it how many yards per play do they average versus their opponents in terms of that they played, what are they giving up, and the same thing on defense and trying to come up for in that. Washington was basically an even team from a yards per play standpoint. Going into this week, offense and defense, again, relative to their competition, they dropped a half a yard. They’re now negative 0.5 yards yard per play.

Scott:

Let’s face it. They scored 13 points against the Kansas City defense who going into that game was allowing 33 points. They averaged 4.8 yards of play, again, against a defense that was given up 7.1 yards a play. Again, that drop, half yard drop and yards per play. That was the biggest drop for me for a team this week. I mean, they just do not look like a good team.

Scott:

They have been blown out against the better teams that they have faced, Buffalo, New Orleans, Kansas City, they played the Chargers close. They played very close games against Atlanta and the Giants. But against the better competition, they have not really been competitive at all.

Matt:

Yeah. I think that was a big part of my approach heading into the week was seeing how the step down in class for the Chiefs would play out, and still waiting on the Chiefs to clean up their turnover issues. They still haven’t gotten rid of that turnover bug. Three more turnovers for Kansas City on Sunday in Washington. In this case, that didn’t end up mattering.

Matt:

Cris, I’m guessing that has something to do for the fact that Washington also taking an even bigger step down in your book.

Cris:

Yeah. It’s remarkable. I just want to touch base on what we discussed in divisional previews. That is have an open-mind that something can happen. We talked about this Washington. We said it’s very possible that this team is a big dud. Don’t buy into their defense. Their defense can do this, this and that. What are we seeing in week six? Number 32 in defense in my rankings now. I mean, they just keep going south.

Cris:

This is happening in the middle of the season also. Be ready to pivot because some of these teams pivot in the middle of the season. We’re going to talk about one of these teams coming up, Atlanta. But last year, we saw Chicago pivot. Chicago was this bad to start the season. I forget, did they start off good or bad? I forget.

Matt:

They started pretty rough, I believe.

Cris:

Yeah. They started off rough and finished. But they turn their season around and became a play on team. Just because a team is garbage now, they may not be garbage the rest of the year. These teams have byes coming up, and they have a reset in front of them. They have scheduled quirks. It’s just something to keep an eye on and be ready to pivot if something changes quickly.

Matt:

Yeah.

Scott:

Hey.

Matt:

Go ahead, Scott.

Scott:

I was just going to say to that tune, too, Cris. What I like to look at from a … you look at Chicago last year, they started Trubisky. They go to Nick Foles. He obviously doesn’t work out. They eventually go back to Trubisky. They turn it around a little bit, which Trubisky came back the next Sunday night or Monday night game against Green Bay, they got crushed. Then they rattled off like three or four wins are very good games.

Scott:

But excuse my language, they were playing shit competition. That’s the other part of this, too. The schedule, you go through ups and downs in terms of level of competition that a team could play some really tough teams look really bad. But then all sudden, they’re going to get to a point in their schedule where these teams aren’t that good. This team can actually play okay, despite being really bad, because now they’re playing someone that’s more equal on their level.

Scott:

But they’ve created some value in the line because they look so bad against some really good team. There’s a lot to take a look at from that standpoint, I think, as well.

Matt:

Yeah. I think that a couple of thoughts here to wrap up this segment. But to Cris’s point, Tampa Bay had a late bye last season, and their offense was just running at a different level coming out of that bye, part of it might have been the narrative Brady’s first season there, needing some time to assimilate, really putting that bye week to good use.

Matt:

I know Cris, you’ve touched multiple times on how much force in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers had in the postseason. But I think the offense was pretty undoubtedly better after that bye. Things like that do happen in the middle of a season. Then, Scott, to your point about the strength of schedule coming into play, I can’t help but think of a team like the Chargers, maybe it’s my own personal fandom.

Matt:

But we talked about last week. They’re running white hot on third and fourth downs before getting hit like a brick wall by regression in Baltimore. I think some of that regression can continue to come their way. But they’ve also had a really brutal first six games to their season.

Matt:

Now as their level of competition falls, we almost have to think, “Okay. If they’re not playing as well in high leverage moments, that doesn’t necessarily mean they’re going to stop winning games, because they’re going to be playing teams that they don’t need to be running as hot on in those big moments.”

Matt:

A lot of good food for thought over the rest of the season based on those points that you two made. I think that can bring us to week seven. Before we pull up a full screen graphic with the board, Cris, there’s one point you have using a big game from last Sunday as an example of the importance of this segment, talking about the value of getting good numbers when we’re anticipating line movement as it pertains to the Cowboys game in New England.

Cris:

Getting the good numbers is very, very important. But here’s an example of where you really just struggle. I mean, a guy like me, who makes my living doing this, it’s just painful the plays you have to make some time. The metrics for me were very solid Dallas last week. Yeah. I had some chances to get minus 3, minus 120. But I thought it was going to get better.

Cris:

It went back the other way. I’m looking at a three and a half on game day. It’s like, “Well, what am I supposed to do.” The reason I bring this up is you just cannot be buying points and spending too much money to get to the key numbers. It costs too much. Nobody’s going to sell you a number for the value. They’re going to charge you much more than the value.

Cris:

I had to suck it up and painfully bet minus three and a half. It was painful. But I’m going to tell you something, even when that game looked like it was going to land on the three and I was going to lose, I knew I made the right call, because I can’t be pissing away games, laying 135 juice or 130 juice. If I would have lost that one, “Oh, well.”

Cris:

Just a lesson for the viewers, you just have to do what’s mathematically prudent when you’re placing your wagers. You can’t be pissing 30 cents away extra on buying points.

Matt:

Yeah. Often, it might cost 25 or 30 cents to buy a half point that’s valuable going on or off the 3, but maybe it’s worth 18 cents, maybe 20 these days. That’s good to keep in mind. I think a decent litmus test for the audience is if a sports book is offering you, any buyout or dropdown menu, they’re probably doing that because they have a setup that works in their favor.

Matt:

Sometimes if you’re in an advantageous spot with a season long bet, your best bet is probably to let it ride. Or if you’re considering buying points, unless you can get a really good price and you know the math, maybe just suck it up and lay a hook. You don’t want to lay and sometimes it’s not going to win. But in the long run, you’re better off not paying 25, 30 cents for something that’s worth 20 at most.

Scott:

Well, let me speak to that, too. First of all, I think they charge 130, because they know people will take it. People want one. They want minus three. They don’t want three and a half. The market bears what people will pay for it, and people will pay for it. It’s great for the books. I think the toughest part, Cris, for most people, including us is like you said, you make the right decision, take three and a half.

Scott:

If that game lands on three, you’re killing yourself, and you’ve got to be mentally disciplined to know that you still made the right move even though you lost. That’s a very, very hard thing to do.

Cris:

But you just have to learn how to do it.

Scott:

Exactly.

Cris:

I’ve got a close friend from 40 years and he still can’t pound it into his brain. He laid 140 to buy a 7 a couple of weeks ago. I tweeted him and ridiculed him. People don’t know how to equate 10 or 20 or 30 or 40 cents to how many more games they need to win to cover if that game loses.

Scott:

Right.

Matt:

I think it’s a perspective of “Am I trying to win this one bet just have the one no record or a profitable day or am I trying to win in the long-term?” It all comes down to what your goal is and what your perspective might be. I know the two of you as pro-betters definitely have the long-term in mind. As we look to put some of that prudent process into practice, wow, alliteration there, let’s pull up the full screen graphic showing the BetUS odds for the week seven slate.

Matt:

Again, it’s a pretty abbreviated board, just 13 games this week. But Cris, let’s get into it with your fearless forecast of expected line movement in these.

Cris:

Yeah. It’s important that you know where a line is probably going to go, or even if you know where it’s not going to go. If you’re thinking about teasing games, it gives you an extra and little advantage sometimes, or you have to make an action faster than normal. We’ll run down these as quickly as possible just to give my best look at these.

Cris:

The Cleveland game on Thursday is just an injury ridden mess. It’s very unpredictable. It’s going to sit on three here until more information comes out. Baltimore may blip down to five and a half. I just can’t see, again, any lower than that. In fact, I think it bounces back up and could see seven again. But I think it’s sitting at six, six and a half.

Cris:

Carolina, minus the three, I think is pretty much the ceiling, but you might see two and a half or lower. Green Bay, the 10 seems to be the ceiling there. Kansas City, the ceilings going to be six there and four is the bottom. Where it goes, I’m not so sure, but that seems to be the range. Atlanta is probably going to hit three, but that should be the ceiling there.

Cris:

New England’s at seven and I thought it would rest there, but I’m starting to wonder if we might just see some soft seven and a halves. New England getting a lot of support. I don’t think we’re going to see that line go back down. The Rams, 17 is probably doubtful. I don’t think it’s going to go any higher. I think 14 is more likely. I don’t think Las Vegas is going to go down.

Cris:

Tampa Bay might see a 14. I’m not predicting it. But I think that that’s the way it’s going to go if my guess is correct. Believe it or not, the Arizona, the metric say the Arizona line is still short at 18 and a half or whatever it is now. It belongs even higher technically. I don’t think it’ll go back down. San Francisco I think a three is doubtful and a four might be probable. Garoppolo looks like he’s going to play. That should be more San Francisco support.

Cris:

The Saints seeing a six on Monday night for another Monday night road favored a six seems more likely than going down to four at this point.

Matt:

Scott, how do you see another week of some pretty big injury news affecting some of the line movement that Cris just touched on?

Scott:

Oh, man. There’s injuries all over the place here, Matt. I’m just looking at Indianapolis Colts. T. Y. Hilton comes back last week, has a pretty good week actually. Gets hurt and leaves. He may miss this game. Wide receiver Parris Campbell for the Colts is out. He’ll probably miss this game as well. They’re losing a little bit from a cluster standpoint there. It’s too bad right after they got someone back.

Scott:

Kadarius Toney wide receiver for the Giants went out of that game. He’s looked pretty good. But he struggled to stay healthy. But you have to just monitor. Sterling Shepherd played last week. We don’t know where Darius Slayton is. Obviously, Barkley is still out. Now I just see they placed left tackle, Andrew Thomas, on injured reserve.

Scott:

Just offensively, there’s a whole bunch of guys hurt there. Let’s just mention the Cleveland Browns as a team. They missed both their tackles, left and right tackle last week. Now both running backs Chubb and Hunt are likely to miss this game as well. Hunt probably out for a while. They lost her linebacker. I’m going to butcher this name, but Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah.

Scott:

We know Mayfield’s hurt. It’s not his throwing shoulder, but still there’s problems there as well. That team is just a mess in general and bears watching. Teddy Bridgewater, I’m seeing here. He looks like he’s going to start, despite the foot injury. He’s a little banged up. Just looking at some other things here. Oh, Lane Johnson looks like he’s coming back, the right tackle for Philadelphia. That’s a good sign actually.

Scott:

Probably a week ahead of ourself here, but Dak Prescott, left tackle, Tyron Smith bear watching for when the Cowboys come back next week. Packers, they lose their center Josh Myers who missed the game a few weeks ago. Darnell Savage, their safety gets banged up. Jaylon Smith, the linebacker they just brought over from Dallas, he left that game, that bears watching.

Scott:

Julio Jones last night gets hurt with a hamstring injury. Right when he comes back and is back with A. J. Brown, got to watch that now. Then on a more positive note here, I’m just looking to Saints doesn’t make Kwon Alexander, the linebacker. Marcus Davenport, defensive lineman; and Tre’Quan Smith, receiver for return from IR. We’ll see how quickly they come back.

Scott:

But the saints it’s almost like an in-season trade for them getting additional pieces back. We know Michael Thomas probably still a few weeks away, wide receiver. But he’s probably coming back fairly soon as well. Saints could be getting very healthy here relatively soon as well.

Matt:

Yeah. A ton of injuries to keep an eye on over the next few days. But Cris, we have one game where you’re not going to hurry up and wait. You’ve got a play to break down for us here and that relates to the Falcons traveling to Miami to take on the Dolphins. What’s your side on that one?

Cris:

Well, we had such high aspirations for Miami when the season came in. But we all knew in the back of our head that the wheels could come off of that bright and shiny bus than they have. As I stated for two previous weeks, I’ve had Miami the number 32 team. There they sit there again after last week. Tua came back and he looked pretty good. But who’s the guy to play with? The receivers are out.

Cris:

He doesn’t have the support system to work with these people. Look on the other side of the coin here. Atlanta was left for dead after that humiliating start that they had. Quietly, they’re two and three. There’s only one team, the Rams, that are basically not within one game of them and wildcard. If they’re able to come back from a bye, which is a big reset, this is crucial for first year head coaches. It allows them to get a reset, and they already had two wins.

Cris:

They’d won two out of their last three games. They’re getting Ridley back. They were banged up. They’re getting healthier. They’ve got games under their belt. Believe it or not, Atlanta offensively one of the problems they had last year. I think Scott mentioned it. They couldn’t get the ball in the end zone. Well, this year, they’re eighth in red zone offense. They’ve already corrected that.

Cris:

We know that they weren’t good in the red zone offense in the first couple of games, whereas Miami’s way down at 57% near the bottom of the league. How’s Miami going to score? I don’t know. Anyway, I’m going with Atlanta, this line might hit three. That’s why I pulled the trigger earlier, and two and a half. I think it could come back down a little bit, but I think it’s more likely to hit three, so that’s why I took my position this early in the week.

Matt:

I really like your angle there on the second season for Atlanta. But one point I want to follow up on what also relate to the red zone, we talked about that a bit with the Bills, Titans game last night how this might be a little bit more of a regression stat. But you said that the Falcons have fixed things in the red zone noting they’re now top 10 in the league in red zone efficiency and Miami is struggling.

Matt:

Oftentimes, I’ve heard a lot of people talking about the fact that if you see one team coming in at almost 70% scoring touchdowns in the red zone, the other team closer to 50%, you’d expect them to meet in the middle. But in this case it sounds like instead of regression, are you seeing something that tells you the Falcons really might be this good and there’s something fundamentally that could keep the Dolphins from catching up with the rest of the pack?

Cris:

I don’t want to misspeak. I’m not saying the Atlanta is a team that’s in contention. Getting back to the point that I said earlier about being open-minded to being able to pivot on teams. This team was garbage a couple of weeks ago. This team may not be garbage. We had high aspirations as a possibility in divisional previews. Right now they’re back where they need to be. Hey, they could still make a run.

Cris:

This is more a play against Miami. It’s a combination of both. Because I actually think Miami is going to regress better, quite frankly. They are not that bad of a team. They’ll get a little bit better. I think Atlanta is going to get better.

Matt:

Yeah. As far as my outlook on this one, I’ll say really briefly then toss it over to Scott. Miami is a possible teaser leg if this sticks on two and a half. But I’m not eager, like most betters probably not eager to get behind Miami in its current form. If this even leads to three, let alone touching it, then it’s a passing rate. But Miami a possible teaser at this stage of the week, going to hurry up and wait to borrow your phrase, Cris. Scott, what’s your outlook for this one?

Maka:

Oh, I was just going to say, too, I neglected. I had one of my lists. Remember of Miami, both Xavien Howard and Byron Jones missed last week, their cornerbacks. They’re out. That doesn’t help. To Cris’s point, this is a reset, which is great. Kyle Pitts seemed like he was getting going. I usually give the team coming out of a bye about one point advantage just coming out of the bye as well.

Maka:

I think that’s worth in the line as well. I don’t really have an opinion on this game. But I agree with a lot of the stuff Cris said that this a team. Kyle Pitts is a rookie. Obviously, he had a nice game against Jacksonville going into or against the Jets going into the bye. But it’s a reset for him to really get his legs underneath them and fully embrace this offense from Arthur Smith, and come back out kind of a second season like you said.

Maka:

I think the bye … We all know this to a degree. But for certain teams the bye can even be that much more valuable. Some teams it’s for injuries. For a team like this, it’s a relatively new team, with a new coach just helps him just get to the next part of their season and be more efficient.

Cris:

Yeah. Make sure you’re paying attention to all these teams that are going into that have first year head coaches. See how they come out of their first bye, allows the coaches to catch their breath and push that reset button a little bit.

Matt:

Yeah. As the resident Charges fan, I’ll just note. As you say that, Cris, Brandon Staley, a first year coach, getting his bye this week. It’s something to keep in mind for this time next week when we’re taking an early look at week eight. But keeping our sights set on week seven here, I mentioned the Dolphins as a possible teaser leg. If we’re going to tease them, we’ll need somebody to pair them with.

Matt:

Scott, when it comes to the Jets, Patriots game in New England currently laying seven, you see a potential teaser candidate in that matchup?

Scott:

Yeah. I made this number a little bit higher. We’ll obviously get into that in Friday. But obviously, we’re getting them under three if we tease them down to one, basically at the current line of seven. For me, I’m still trying to find another team to tease them with. I’ve said many times, I have a little bit of a different model that just helps me try to identify teams that are a good team to tease.

Scott:

The Jets … I’m sorry. The Pats do qualify in that model as well. They do look like a very good teaser opportunity. For me now, it’s just a matter of trying to find another team to tease them with.

Matt:

Yeah. Plenty to keep our eyes on over the next few days. Cris, another game we can touch on briefly, not in the sense of a teaser. But let’s talk Eagles, Raiders for a bit. BetUS has the Raiders laying three at a heavily juice to minus 120. You mentioned you don’t think that’s going to be coming down partly because the Eagles were maybe an honorable mention for your biggest faller moving on from week six toward week seven.

Cris:

Yeah. They were the largest drop that I had last week in my metric model. But as mentioned, Scott mentioned, they’re getting healthier. Las Vegas kick butt, new coach. I think we talked about it that you get this one-two game jump of energy when you have a coaching change in this situation. Vegas looked like they had all cylinders working last week.

Cris:

I think they were on national TV, so everybody saw it. But I’m just happy that my model says that the line is right on, because I don’t want either side of this one, personally.

Matt:

Yeah, well, you touch on the Raiders possibly getting a bit of a balance with a new coach and a team that showed a balance early in the season, despite a lack of talent would be the Detroit Lions. This week, they are plus 15 at the Rams. The new coach balance we saw early on in the season might be starting to wear a little bit thin, Cris, for your Detroit Lions.

Cris:

Yeah. I think the balloon is popped. We saw Campbell last time out. He actually put some responsibility on Goff. He really didn’t have a demeanor of a real leader out there. Yeah. He was trying to be honest and thought he was being honest. But if you really looked at his expressions, it didn’t come with conviction. You just pick up on those things. Just there’s too many things going wrong with that team and they got annihilated by a team that was supposed to not even make the playoffs.

Cris:

I think the reality is setting in Detroit, I’d be cautious supporting them. I start to wonder whether Goff is such a pansy mentally that he’s just scared out of his daylights to even come in and play his old team. Just remind people, Jared Goff has never won a game without McVay coaching.

Matt:

That’s exaggeration. I’m trying to remember, Jeff Fisher was his rookie year. They must have done something. But yeah, needless to say Goff without McVay has not been the best quarterback [crosstalk 00:38:02]

Cris:

O and 13.

Scott:

They’re pretty bad with Fisher that year.

Matt:

Okay. Holy smokes. Well, we’re probably not going to see that come to fruition this week. But when we do, maybe some champagne popping in the Goff household. One more game we can touch on here with our week seven early look would be Houston Arizona. Again, the Cardinals a massive 18 point favorite. Cris, I know you have one point to touch on. But first an open ended question up for either of you to grab from the live chat.

Matt:

We have a question noting the Cardinals again, that minus 18, looks like a college football spread. You think the Texans can lose by three touchdowns? Or can we expect that line to move? Any thoughts on this Cardinals minus 18? I know Cris, consider your metric support an even bigger number. But at a certain point, are we seeing diminishing returns once the numbers reached this level in the stratosphere?

Cris:

What do you do in those games? Scott, do you steer off of totals in sides? Are you able to find any value in these big spread games?

Scott:

For sides for the most part, I’ll steer off of. I remember last year, I think it was Seattle destroyed the Jets, I believe at home. The late season, I’ve got a few situations that tempt sometimes can play a team. I played that game last year with Seattle. But it’s pretty rare. I think I’ve said this earlier. I may play one or two double digit favorites all year long.

Scott:

Now totals perspective, and sometimes you can look at that, because you look at a team and I don’t … Arizona, I’m not sure what to think about them from this perspective. But you get a team like the Rams and maybe that … I haven’t looked at this total close enough. But a team like McVay, they may just run the ball up by a whole bunch of points at the end.

Scott:

If they’re up 31 to 3, they have no incentive to keep throwing the ball. They’re going to hand it off. They’re going to run the ball. They’re going to eat clock. They’re going to control it. Sometimes in big spread games, I think you can find some opportunities with the under from that perspective. Because if they can eat clock, it doesn’t give the other team a chance to really backdoor it.

Scott:

I’ll look for things like that sometimes. But from a side perspective, I’m not … Sometimes, yeah, maybe you’ll find a big dog with some value. But a really bad team and I’m just hoping and praying that they stay within a number. That’s not something I’m really interested in getting involved in just by luck.

Cris:

I remember seeing last year and I apologize for not having this specific numbers handy. But believe it or not, we grew up learning you don’t bet double digit favorites in the NFL. But hey, wait a minute. We had a bunch of rule changes. We play pattycake with the quarterback now and all flags go to the receiver. Things have changed.

Cris:

Recent data shows that these double digit favorites are covering more often than they aren’t, believe it or not, at a decent rate. For me, personally, I just feel like it’s just so much of a shit show that I don’t want to be involved. But I’m going to start paying more attention to it. My metrics say that this line should be over 21. If I had to play somebody, I would take care of Arizona.

Cris:

But I’m going to I’m going to layoff of it and I would lean toward the under, because I think Arizona is going to go through the motions here. Especially after a big win with Cleveland, and they have their own injuries concerns. They don’t need to put anybody in jeopardy.

Matt:

Yeah. Well, speaking of injury concerns, Cris, one more game to get to before we wrap things up. That would be that Thursday night showdown between the Broncos and the Browns in Cleveland. BetUS house the Browns currently a three and a half point favorite at even money, total at 42 and a half. We’ve seen some steam to both Denver and the under.

Matt:

My big question here is who’s going to be playing in this game between Baker Mayfield, the offensive line, and the running backs for the Browns, also the linebackers for Denver. Scott, you’re our injury expert here. I’m wondering with all this injury concern on both sides, do you see much of a floor for the spread or the total on Thursday night?

Scott:

No. I was just looking at my line. The line is shading towards Cleveland for me, but that doesn’t really account for the injuries necessarily. Made a total about 45. It’s a little bit higher than what the total is, but again, not really counting for the injuries. There’s just so many injuries here. I was just looking at a statement from Von Miller. He says, “I don’t know who the Browns tackle I’m going to going up against. But I’m going to kill him.”

Scott:

There’s just a lot of injuries here. It’s just a very tough game for me. I’m really down on Denver right now. This the team who won three games, the Jets, the Giants. I forget the other team. All three really bad teams. Now [crosstalk 00:42:40] Who?

Matt:

I think it was the Jets.

Scott:

Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Jets there, thank you. Then they started moving into tougher competition territory. Last week, I mean, they were just downright awful. For a team who’s supposed to have a pretty good defense, I know they’ve had some injuries there, some good secondary help. The Raiders hit, I think, seven big pass plays of 20 plus yards or more, and the Raiders are very good at that.

Scott:

But this team does not look good right now. Vic Fangio is challenging calls that don’t need to be challenged. Now, the second challenge last week was probably more of a desperate call than anything. The first one I thought was awful. He’s getting magnified. Again, I just don’t think he’s a great coach. But Cleveland is so banged up that I don’t know that I want Cleveland either.

Matt:

Yeah. Cris, are you able to make heads or tails of this matchup?

Cris:

Yeah. This is easiest decision you’ll ever get. The new season of billion started apparently. Succession started. Catch up on those. You know what? Just because the games on TV, you don’t have to bet it. Anybody that says they’ve got the edge here. They’re lying. You don’t know what the hell’s going to happen here with the dynamics of the players that are involved and how they’re going to work. This is a coin flip. Trust me.

Matt:

Yeah. Well, again, like last Thursday, I’m not sure if the production team even bothered to make the usual Thursday night picks graphic because it’s a unanimous pass for all three of us. But that doesn’t mean we don’t have one official bet to lock in now as far as the show is concerned. Cris on the Atlanta Falcons, laying two and a half traveling to Miami before we possibly see that line settle in at three when we come back to on Friday.

Matt:

That’s all we’ve got right now with our early look at the week seven slate. Thanks for joining us. Again, if you’re with us on YouTube, thanks to everybody who’s part of the community with 10,000 subscribers now with the BetUS official channel. Go ahead and subscribe. If you have already, go ahead and give this video a quick thumbs up while you’re at it.

Matt:

Do’t forget, if you want to follow Cris’s play on the Falcons or get down on any other games in week seven, you can always sign up at BetUS using the promo code NFL2021 for your 125% signup bonus. That’ll do it for us for now. We’re back with you to break down the full weekend board live on Friday at a new time 1:00 p.m. Eastern, at 10:00 a.m. Pacific.

Matt:

Cris, that’s one extra hour to sleep in for us this week out here on the West Coast or near the West Coast for you guys in Vegas. Thanks again to everybody for joining us. We’ll see you again on Friday at 1:00 pm. Eastern, at 10 a.m. Pacific right back here at BetUS where the game begins.