Speaker 1:
Week 14 has a possible Super Bowl preview between the Buccs and the Bills, as well as an NFC West showdown between the Rams and the Cardinals on Monday night. All throughout this past 13 weeks, the top three teams in the NFC standings are the Cardinals, the Packers, and the Buccaneers respectively. The Washington Football Team have won four straight games and will face the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday night. And the Monday night matchup between the Rams and the Cardinals could determine the outcome of the NFC West division. Our NFL odds experts are ready to take a look at the NFL TV show week 14, line moves, sharp bets and match more coming up.
Matt:
NFL Week 14 upon us and Cris, you’ve got the clean shave, a fresh start, so far, so good with the Vikings bet last night. Although they sure made it a little bit sweaty down the home stretch.
Cris:
Oh come on. You know it’s really easy to handicap games like that, it went exactly as I planned it to go, it was never in doubt. And it really just brings to light how easy the handicapping part of this is. You figure it out and it goes exactly as planned and we deserve a lot more credit for that hard work.
Matt:
Yeah. Well, Scott, while Cris and I were on the side, fortunately you passed on the total. You did have a lean to the under on our Tuesday show. What do you make of the way that game just went off the rails in the second half?
Scott:
Well, first of all, we could have used the Vikings to make that same stop a week earlier against Detroit, of course, but it was unbelievable, the holes that Dalvin Cook had in that first half. He even joked afterwards, I think he was talking to Erin Andrews or whoever it was and said, “You could have ran through those holes.” Right? It was unbelievable. They were massive holes. And then I mean, the other thing in that game, Pittsburgh was driving in that first scoring drive and the Vikings had actually stopped them for a little bit of negative yardage on a little wide receiver screen. And they got that taunting call that took what was going to be, I don’t know, a third and 10 or third and 15, I think, and basically gave them a first down around the 20 yard light or something.
Scott:
And the Steelers obviously went in and scored a touchdown and who knows what would’ve happened if they would’ve stopped that? I mean, maybe Pittsburgh would’ve never got going, but that’s the way football works sometimes. You get a little bit of break and then they take advantage of it. And I don’t know how much that first half deficiency in defense Pittsburgh was, TJ Watt, he had the growing issue. I noticed he was grabbing at it when he was still in the field. And then of course he comes off, but [inaudible 00:03:06] unbelievable. I’ll just flip the switch into the second half.
Matt:
Yeah. Well, Cris and I will go ahead and take that result. And with Thursday in the books, let’s take a look at a full screen graphic showing our records year to date and we’ll see if we got the last minute update. No. So this is the same info we saw on the Tuesday show. Cris and I are one win better, thanks to the Vikings coming through last night. Still some work to do to get into the positive side on the win column, Scott saving off a loss on the total. So we will look to build on this moving forward, not only with the picks we provide, but more importantly, the process we get into as we break down each and every game. And before we dig into the rest of the Week 14 slate, a shout out to our YouTube audience, go ahead and give us a quick thumbs up, subscribe to the channel, jump in that chat.
Matt:
Let us know what you think as we work down each game on the weekend card. And guys let’s get to it. Of course, if anybody in the audience is looking for Raiders, Chiefs or Seahawks, Texans breakdowns, you can find those in our Tuesday show. We broke those down a bit early this week. So the first game we’ll get to for today’s show would take us to the early window on Sunday with the Saints traveling to New Jersey to take on the Jets. Saints currently 5.5 point road favorites, total of 43. And Cris, you’re on a side in this one.
Cris:
Yeah, I’m going to keep it short and sweet. We all know the Jets have their problems, they’ve lost players all week long again, and it just keeps getting uglier. I have them 27th in the league. The Saints are finally getting healthier, they have Kamara and a few other guys coming back. And I worry a little bit about Hill behind center; he has his issues, but I think Kamara is really going to help him out there. And I have them still at number 15 in the league somehow. They seem worse than that, but I’m taking the Saints to cover the 5.5 here. Basically my numbers say that they’re supposed to. And I’ll revert back to the trend I brought up since 2016, home underdogs of 3.5 or more since 2016 are 38% believe it or not, coming into this season. So maybe that’ll help me out.
Matt:
Yeah, well, I’ll call it my Alice In Chains game of the week. My favorite song of theirs, I Stay Away. And I just don’t know if I want anything to do with this one. I know Kamara is going to be back, but not sure if he’ll be quite at full strength. No Ingram in the back field and looking at the quarterbacks here, Taysom Hill dealing with mallet finger, that’s the injury of the season for quarterbacks. We saw Russell Wilson go through it earlier. Zach Wilson, 10 healthy fingers. I’m still not sure which team has the better quarterback situation in this one so I’ll go ahead and stay away for now. Scott, what are you looking for in Saints and Jets?
Scott:
I’m looking to just get a whole lot of this injury and COVID stuff cleaned up. Their left tackle, Terron Armstead, limited in action so he may play, which is good. If obviously they’re getting Kamara back, which is huge. And James Hurst, who’s filled in both at right tackle, left tackle even after the right tackle, Ramczyk is out, Hurst has played pretty well. So I think they’ll be in a decent spot on offense, short of whatever injury issues created for Taysom Hill there. And then on the defensive side, Davenport, limited practice he’s been out, so he might come back. Unfortunately, Cam Jordan got put on COVID list, but he might be able to come back yet by Sunday. We’ll see. So I’m waiting to see if they come back too. Because if all those guys are back, it is just, defense is horrible.
Scott:
And I’m just looking here. Short of the Houston Texans, where they only allowed 14, in Miami they’ll only allow 24, 33, 45, 45, 31 54, 27. I mean, Hill doesn’t even really have to throw the ball. They can just run the ball and probably get to 24 or 27 points in this game. And the Jets looking here, they’re what? Number 32 and big pass plays allow… They’re going to give up big plays, I don’t want to have the Jets at all. I’m not going to lay with the Saints right now, at least, especially because we don’t know the injury situation, but this is a game where New Orleans should be able to steam roll this team if they can just get a few pieces of the puzzle back. But I would actually lean under here a little bit.
Scott:
I’ve got a fairly decent value on the under in this game as well. Last week I had that against Philadelphia. I just worry about the Jets defense, but I think the Saints will be happy just to run the ball e-clock, get out of dodge with a win and move on.
Matt:
Yeah. Well, Scott you touch on the Saints getting healthier and that’s part of your handicap. And the next game on the board, Jacksonville traveling to Tennessee where the Titans currently laying 10, double digit, favorite there about plus 105 juice attached to that number. Total 43.5. Aside for you, in this one, Scott, let us know where you’re looking.
Scott:
I’m looking at Jacksonville. I would want the 10 or more, I think that’s important. And this is just another numbers play for me. Last week I had said hey, I like Seattle based on the numbers. A few weeks ago, we took Houston at Tennessee. Houston won that came out right, but let’s be honest, they got a little fortunate and Tennessee wasn’t super focused to that game. And Tennessee is getting a lot of pieces of the puzzle back, especially on defense as well as Julio Jones. They’ll still be out without AJ brown, I think, but I mentioned this a few weeks ago in that Tennessee game, since Tannehill started, he started, starting for him about halfway through the 2019 season. So we’re about two years in now. They’ve been a home favorite 14 times.
Scott:
They’ve only won two of those games by more than eight points. I think one of those games, they blew out Jacksonville, but they just don’t blow teams out. And I don’t love Jacksonville, they’re not a great team obviously, but Tennessee also isn’t blowing teams out and my numbers actually provide a little bit of the value to Jacksonville here. I’ll just note the other thing, I’m not playing a total here, but Jacksonville now 10 and two to the under. 10 on their 12 games this year under, they’re not scoring points obviously. So I’ll grab the 10 points, hold my nose and hope that it works.
Matt:
When you say you want at least the 10 in this one, I know plus 10 for Jacksonville, a juicy -125. How do you equate that to some other numbers in the marketplace? Some books maybe anywhere between eight to nine with Tennessee as the favorite? When you see this double digit total, just how much juice would you be willing to pay to take Jacksonville?
Scott:
I don’t think I’d go over the 125. Cris is better at this and I think we even maybe offline, were talking about this earlier in the week, Cris, weren’t you talking about 9.5 to 10 was maybe 12 cents or maybe a little bit more than that possibly? I can’t remember what you said.
Cris:
Well, the markets come down on this game. It’s 8.5 most places and they have a teaser protection at BetUS. An 8.5 is actually worth a plus 10, -128. So you’re actually getting a better line at -125 than a lot of the 8.5s that are out there. But there are a handful of nines available, so it’s pretty close.
Scott:
Okay.
Matt:
Yeah. Nice. Love the advanced math and quick calculation from Cris there. I’ll kick it over to Cris pretty shortly, because I don’t have anything on this one. It looks like Julio will likely going to return. I’m wondering if the Jags might be a bit of a get right team down the stretch, we saw the Rams really bounce back against them last weekend. Maybe Tennessee does the same here. Certainly some teaser protection baked into this number. As you touched on Cris, Tennessee where 8.5 is available to cross down through seven and three. I couldn’t fault anybody for looking that way, but nothing for me in this one for now. So Cris, let us know what you’re looking for.
Cris:
I’m looking for Tennessee to lose that game so that I have a chance for my Indianapolis to win the division. And other than that, I’m going to sit this one out. My metrics come up at 8.5 right on the number. And I think you guys covered everything else I could say about the game.
Matt:
All right, well then let’s move on. Another big divisional game in the AFC. Second time in three weeks, Baltimore taking on Cleveland. This one, the rematch in Cleveland. Browns length 2.5 at -115 total of 43. And Scott you’re in play on that total.
Scott:
Yeah, I’m going over. I think we did a team total over two weeks ago when Cleveland and Baltimore played each other in Baltimore and that Sunday night game, it did not get there. That total though was 47.5, now we’re down to 43. Look, I’m going to spit out some things here that don’t really support the over here. And the fact that Baltimore scored 19 or less now in five of their last six games, Cleveland’s 17 or less, six of their last seven games. So these guys aren’t scoring, but I still with my numbers, they’re still showing some value here on the over 43. I still think it’s a relatively low total for these two teams. Now, obviously if they can’t get things going on the offensive side, this is going to look a lot like that game on Sunday night a couple weeks ago.
Scott:
But again, I’m going to play the number here and I just have some value for both these guys to go over this total. And the other thing I noted, I’m not playing the side here, but I was just looking this morning, Cleveland now one in six straight up versus teams at 500 or above this year. So they’re certainly not beating the good teams here, but for me it’s going to be a play, an over 43. As my numbers say, these things should be a little bit higher.
Matt:
Yeah. Numbers play for you on the total. A numbers grabbed for me on the side. I don’t love that last point you made about Cleveland struggling against teams with winning records, but I am going to take Cleveland minus the 2.5 here. It is all about that number to me. Since week 12, we’ve had the Browns take their bye. The Ravens traveling to Pittsburgh, losing Marlon Humphrey. And I think this game’s probably going to close at three where it’s not already there yet. So just a chance to get the best of the number, three being the king of key numbers. So I’m going to take the Browns, -2.5 here. Cris, what are you looking for in this big AFC North rematch?
Cris:
Well, Scott, Baltimore and Cleveland played a 47 to 42 game last year at this site. So maybe you’ll get that same luck.
Scott:
I hope so.
Cris:
Hey, Baltimore’s becoming a thorn in my side here. They’re tough because they’re just depleted everywhere. And Jackson lost all his running backs, he’s lost offensive linemen. One stat I don’t like is he’s been the worst quarterback in the NFL since Week 5 according to some of the key metrics I forgot to write down. And he’s even worse than the 32 quarterbacks, he’s 34th. So big concern there. Another issue, he’s been sacked 11 times more than he was all last season. So these are issues that really concern me because my metrics are obviously very solid Baltimore. Cleveland, I have rated overall number 18, they’ve lost more than five points in value over the last five weeks. I have Baltimore actually too high. I’m embarrassed to even admit it.
Cris:
And it’s hard to equate and equalize everything with all those gaps in the lineups, but I think Mayfield is useless. I think this team is underachieving. They should have gone to the backup, I don’t know why they keep running this guy out there every week. I think he’s worse for the team. And even though the Browns are getting healthier, they’re in a must win, must lose type of situation here where people tend to sit there and give them extra points because they have to win it’s a must win. We’re a little early at Week 14, but teams in that situation usually don’t come through. They’re in those situations because they’re not that good, but I’m going to be looking at Baltimore plus three. I’m not going to take them plus 2.5, but when the threes come up, I’m going to hold my nose and probably take the Ravens.
Matt:
Moving on from one big division matchup to another. This time hopping over to the NFC, atlanta at Carolina. Panther is currently laying 2.5 -115, total 41.5. Cris, another side in play for you here. Who do you like?
Cris:
Well, I like Atlanta, but I’m going to bet Carolina. The metrics are pretty strong. Atlanta looks really easy so that makes me feel better about betting Carolina. I mean, I have another modes with Carolina because I haven’t been doing well with them this year, but they’re off the bye, they get some rest. They’re in the exact same playoff picture as Atlanta and they have the new offensive coordinator. Maybe they get something working here and maybe they do something different. Atlanta’s defense is still 31st in the league. They’ve lost 4.3 points of value against the average team over the last five weeks. And Carolina has lost value also, but not that much. I have Carolina rated much higher than Atlanta and I’m not even giving them any home field points or bump. But I can’t let that sit there, I’ll just have to suck it up and take Carolina.
Matt:
Yeah, I’m looking the other way, but not necessarily head to head with you, going to go ahead and tease Atlanta up through to three and seven to plus 8.5. Also looking at that first half, under 20.5 in this one. And as far as the teaser goes for the Panthers, pretty perplexingly firing their offensive coordinator, Joe Brady during the bi-week, that doesn’t necessarily equate to acquiring a competent quarterback. So I’m not too sure what they’re expecting there. I don’t trust Cam Newton to build and maintain a margin against anybody in the league right now. And with this being again, a divisional game, some familiarity between these teams, low total. That implies reduced variance, which bodes well for underdogs going up through a touchdown and teasers.
Matt:
So that’s the Atlanta teaser leg here. And as far as the total goes, I do like the under as a way to get in play against both offenses here and specifically the first half to protect against any end game shenanigans. I know I had a full game under involving the Falcons earlier this season at New Orleans and that looked great in the first half and then all hell broke loose from there. So I’m isolating the first half, but Scott you’re also in play on the total and tell us what you’re looking for from a full game perspective.
Scott:
Yeah, I’m on the under for the total. I have no problem with the first half total, I think the that’s a good play as well. And I would play Atlanta here in a teaser. I wanted to tease them with Seattle, but that line right now has gotten out a teaser range here. So I’m just going to put it in just… We’ll just mention it as a possible teaser candidate here, but like I said, I like the under as well here. So a couple things here to support the teaser and then also the total as well. First of all, these two, they’ve gone under seven of the last eight games that they’ve played here in Carolina. They’ve scored 42 or less in six of those eight games. It just does not seem to be a high scoring game. They’re on grass as well.
Scott:
And then just from a competitive nature for Atlanta to stay within this game, especially within teaser range. Atlanta this year, they played eight games against teams below 500, which Carolina is. They’ve lost just one of those eight games by more than six points. So they figure to stay close in this game. Again, I don’t really want them getting 2.5, just there’s not enough margin for air for me there in this game. But I do like them getting possibly 8.5 in a teaser. You got to go back to 2015 the last time Carolina won a game here versus Atlanta by more than three points. So they historically are not beating this team by a lot. Carolina, just one in five, straight up is a home favorite since Matt Rhule came aboard at the beginning of last year.
Scott:
So at home as a favorite, they’re not really doing much there as well. And then just going back and looking at Atlanta, they’ve not been a very good team the last few years, but as I went back and looked at them the last three years, they haven’t lost a game by more than three points on the road as a dog in any of the nine games that they played versus teams that didn’t make the playoff that year. So when they’re playing bad teams on the road as a dog, they’re basically the inferior team. They’re still staying very close to those games, they’re either winning them or they’re losing by three or less. And they’ve allowed more than 20 points to just one of the five teams they’ve played as road dogs that came in with a blow average off, which is what Carolina has as well.
Scott:
So as much as this defense has not been great over the years, as much as Atlanta has not been a very good team over the years, when they played teams that are maybe somewhat of their equal badness, if you will, they’ve stayed close in the games and the games have been low scoring. So I like the under. I do have some value in this game towards the under, so I’ll play it under and I’d like Carolina to keep it close, but I would only trust them in a teaser format, not just getting 2.5. That’s a little slim for my likings in a game with this type of team.
Matt:
Cool. We’ve got some good consensus as far as the total goes in this one. And moving on to the next game, some consensus on the side, Dallas traveling to Washington where the Cowboys are 4.5 point road favorites, total 48. Scott, you’re in play on a side that Cris also likes. And I think Cris actually had the play in first this week. You suspiciously sneaking this one into the last minute, if anybody’s wondering who’s copying whom, but tell us who you like and why.
Scott:
Yeah, Cris was accusing me and I had to remind him last time I copied him was Minnesota and San Francisco and that didn’t work out very well, but I’ve actually got quite a bit of value here on Dallas. First of all, we got a lot of question marks for Washington on the defensive side, they were supposed to get Montez Sweat back this week, but now he’s on COVID, so they’re still without him, and Chase Young obviously. Landon Collins, I think will play, but they’ve got a pretty good young linebacker that might be out this week. So we have to see what happens on the defensive side for them, but they could have numerous injuries there on the defensive side. But my numbers support Dallas by quite a bit here, I do have Minne as a number six passing offense, Washington, number 29 in pass defense.
Scott:
And when Washington stepped up this year and played better competition, they’re really not staying close. They’ve lost double digits to the Bills, the Saints, when the Saints were actually a good team. That was in Washington. To the Chiefs, I think that was 31-13. And then lost by 14 to Green Bay in Green Bay. And they actually moved the ball in that game, they just couldn’t score at the end. They did obviously beat Tampa Bay here a few weeks ago by 10, so let’s give them credit for that. But Dallas is getting healthy here now while Washington’s a mess. Dallas now has all their linemen back, they’ve got all their receivers back and they’re also going to get Randy Gregory back this week on the defensive line, they got Demarcus Lawrence back last week. That helps a lot in combination with Micah Parsons.
Scott:
I think they can put some pressure on Taylor Heinicke as well. This number just seems short to me. I will just point out I’m not playing it, but the under here… Again, we’ve got a late season divisional under that gets even so stronger from Week 11 on. These are for higher totals now, because as Cris pointed out, when you played the over in the Baltimore game, but that’s a lower total, but when the totals are higher divisional matchups, and they’re six and two since Week 11 to the under, that applies here as well. My numbers don’t really support it so I’m not touching that total, but that situation has been very, very reliable year after year, after year. So just a word of caution there if you like the over, but I like Dallas, a lot of value. I think they’re the better team here. So my money’s going to be in Dallas.
Matt:
Yeah. And I would certainly lean that way. Although it was interesting to see last week, the Cowboys finally getting all their offensive pieces back together and wondering that was it? As far as what they could show us, was expecting more. Maybe this is the week we see it, some more time for them to play together and get things gelling. For Washington though, four straight wins and covers off their bye despite a negative yards per play differential in each game. I think part of it relates to a big time of possession edge. They’ve had playing some ball control offense, relying on a solid success rate, even if they’re not too explosive these days. And that might get put to the test against a Cowboys defense, Scott, you touched on it, getting their best pass pressures all back together.
Matt:
Parsons, Gregory and Lawrence. I think some luck Washington football team has had lately on late downs might get put to the test and if their past game is going to be pressured again with Parsons, Gregory and Lawrence, maybe looking for Antonio Gibson to have a big game out of the backfield, but nothing for me on the side in total. Cris, we know you and Scott are aligned. So let us know why you’re also on the Cowboys minus the 4.5.
Cris:
Well, Scott said exactly what I was going to say. So he didn’t leave me much to say, but…
Matt:
Chopping you twice. Once with a [crosstalk 00:24:32].
Scott:
Say it again. See if you say it better.
Cris:
I think this is a little bit of a… Selling high a little bit here with Washington, they’ve skated by recently. They’ve been playing better, but I still have them 25th in the league, they’re still bottom five defensively. Dallas is a top 10 team. Dallas is getting healthy, they’ve got all their receivers ready to go. The coach has already basically fired the warning shots and said that we’re going to get this game. And I just see too many players are leaving Washington due to injury and other issues. And the key loss, Riggs Gerald’s out for the season was announced this week, I saw. Wasn’t that known?
Matt:
Logan Thomas?
Scott:
He’s talking about Ryan Fitzpatrick that’s having season-
Matt:
Oh, okay. Okay. I just heard that Logan Thomas is. Okay, got you.
Cris:
No, but I thought it was funny that they announced it this week. We completely forgot about him. So the metrics on this, like Scott said, are way off and there’s a lot of value here. When this line came, came out, it was looking at five. I was just hoping that it wouldn’t go to six before I was able to bet it, and I was happy to get a four. I see BetUS has a 4.5. If you shop, you can find better lines, but I’m on Dallas.
Matt:
Cool. It took me a moment to register that Ryan Fitzpatrick injury from Week 1. We haven’t seen him since, so I guess safe to assume we’re not going to see him over the final month of this season.
Cris:
Yeah.
Matt:
That gets us already to the end of the early window on Sunday. So we’ll call a quick time out. Another shout out to the YouTube audience. Friendly reminder, give us a quick thumbs up, subscribe to the channel and we’ll keep things rolling. Diving into the late window on Sunday. Kicking that off with Detroit at Denver, the Broncos laying double digits at home, a 10 point favorite, total 42, Cris, we might want to brand this the Allen Iverson game. We’re going to talk about practice. The Lions missing 21 players, I wonder why they’d even bother to practice in that kind of situation.
Cris:
Well, everybody’s sick. Swift isn’t going to play again, basically, they said today. I’ve got Denver actually rated pretty high number 14 and they’re gaining over a point over the last five weeks and believe it or not, Detroit’s gained a point over the last five weeks. And I actually heard somebody on social media refer to the worst teams in the league and they only mentioned Houston and Jacksonville. So something goofy is going on, they didn’t include Detroit on that. But traditionally teams that get that big win off their back, they don’t come back that strong the following game. They breathe the sigh of relief and they don’t come out with that same fire to get the monkey off their back. Not always, but most of the time.
Cris:
Guff is not good in these type of elements, which you’re going to see in Denver this week. You’ve got the elevation factor, you’ve got his tiny little hands. I like Denver to take care of business here because they beat up on the bad teams. They don’t do as well against the good teams, but when they face a bad team, they like to take out their aggressions and bully them. So it’s not a metric play per se. It’s a personal play. I’m taking Denver in this game.
Matt:
Yeah. I could only look their way… Full disclosure, I teased Denver earlier in the week when they were still available in teaser territory at -8.5. If the number gets back there, I would certainly endorse that. I don’t think it’s going to happen, but just something to keep in mind in case we do see that line movement, looking at this game, as far as the lines opponent this week, we know there’s no D in Minnesota. We’ve now seen that twice in the last five days, can’t say the same about Denver. And when it comes to offense and special teams looking for a bit of a bounce back for the Broncos. Last week in Kansas city, a 20 play, 11 minute drive coming up empty, and then on special teams, a muffed punt, right before a Teddy Bridgewater pick six to put that game out of reach. So I think the Broncos are due for some positive regression. Again, the Lions dealing with a flu outbreak, among other reasons you cited Cris, I could only look Denver’s way here. Scott, how about you?
Scott:
Yeah, I’ve got a little value on Denver. And if this comes back into teaser range, I think this can be a perfect game also to tease with Atlanta. And to Cris’s point, they do beat up on bad teams, still pretty good defense, they’ve got some pressure that they can apply. I’ve got them number nine in pressure rate, Detroit number 22 in allowing pressure, so that could disrupt Detroit a little bit. And I like to look at NFL games and you forget, to Cris’s point, what they do against bad teams. They haven’t played a really bad team since week three. So they beat the Giants 27-13 Week 1, they beat Jacksonville 23-13 Week 2. Those are both on the road. They come home and they spank the Jets 26-nothing.
Scott:
And then since then Baltimore, Pittsburgh Raiders, Cleveland, Washington, Dallas Philly, Chargers, Chiefs, they haven’t played a bad team. So you forget what they have, the potential that they have to do against bad teams where they’re just better than those teams by quite a margin. So I agree a little bit of value, not super comfortable laying a high number with Denver, but certainly if this somehow came back into teaser range. I’d be very comfortable taking them in a teaser.
Cris:
I like the under a little bit on this game, but for some reason it just nag me that somehow this Detroit defense is just going to fall apart on them. I can see Denver running up some points for some reason, even though they really haven’t. I guess they scored 28 and 30 recently, but it just seems like this is right for them to score a bunch of points. And just eek over the total with one Detroit score and the rest are Denver points.
Scott:
Well, and the other thing they could do on this too, Cris, just with that defense, they could just get favorable position on the field too, right?
Cris:
Yeah.
Scott:
Turnovers and whatnot. And it leads the easy points. I was just looking, I made the number about where the total’s at, but I don’t see Detroit scoring a whole lot here. And then maybe Denver runs the ball once they’re ahead by a wide margin too.
Matt:
Scott, you touched on Denver not having played a bad team since Week 3. As it pertains to our next game, I feel like Cris might object because they have played the Chargers since then. And the Chargers this week will be hosting the Giants. Chargers a 10 point home favorite, total 43. And Scott, a lot of question marks in this one about who’s going to be playing. What are you looking for at this stage?
Scott:
Well, there’s a whole lot of question marks here. COVID side on the Charger side, Keenan Allen probably doesn’t play. Mike Williams and Chris Harris put on the COVID list, but I think it was just for close contact. So I think they have a reasonable chance to still play, but we got to let that play out. It looks like Jake Fromm starting at quarterback for-
Cris:
No, I think Lennon has been switched in there.
Scott:
Oh, is he okay now? Did he clear the concussion?
Cris:
I think so.
Scott:
Okay.
Cris:
Yeah, that’s what I saw this morning.
Scott:
Okay. That’s good to know. I love Jake Fromms’s line. If he did have to play, he said it’s like being asked to take a final and not being able to study for it because he just joined the Giants last week. So all of a sudden, “Hey kid, go out there and throw the ball around.” So that potentially helps him a little bit, I guess, for my Glennon stand point. I’ve mentioned this situation many times, the Giants qualify in this situation as a dog of 10 or less in this game. They haven’t scored any points the last few weeks and these teams that are non-division teams going on the road as dogs that have scored 14 or less the last couple weeks, historically they have been money in the bank year after year, after year. Jacksonville against Buffalo earlier this year, Houston against Tennessee earlier this year.
Scott:
Now it’s had some losses this year. It’s slightly above 500, I believe, but I just mentioned that Giants are going to qualify in that as well. And that’s enough to just keep me off the Chargers as a whole. I do have a little bit of value on the Giants here. For whatever it’s worth, Chargers, 14-27, and one is a home favorite since 2014, we know they haven’t been a good home favorite. Giants, 23 and 10 as a road dog since 2017, although three and three this year. So that’s come back a little bit, but traditionally they’ve been a pretty good dog, including eight and three as road dogs of more than seven. So they played pretty well in this role, but I got to see how all this stuff shakes up with some of these injuries, but I would lean Giants. Fromm, I don’t know, you don’t know what you’re going to get there. Glennon, I’m not a huge fan of, but I would still probably lean Giants a little bit plus the points against a team like the Chargers.
Matt:
Yeah. I think you touched on the big question. Cris has mentioned it for a few games this season. Who’s playing? No really, who’s going to be playing? To phrase it the way Cris does. That’s my look at this game. I mean, Scott, you touched on Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Chris Harris for the Chargers. Who’s under center for the Giants? One thing that would have me possibly looking the Chargers’ way, Lombardi. Again, we talked earlier in the season about being handed the keys to a Ferrari and driving it like a minivan, finally revving that engine a bit last week. Justin Herbert, number one in average depth of target, that was therapeutic to see, but not sure if we can bank on that week in and out. And quietly guys, the Chargers defense, number six in rush defense EPA since their week seven bye, so maybe some stealth improvement there. Cris seems to disagree with that. So I’ll toss it over to you Cris, to see what you’re looking for in this matchup between the Giants and Chargers.
Cris:
I mean, you actually do have a point, the defense was 31st, they moved up to 26 by my ranking. So I still have the Chargers number 17 overall, they’ve been overrated perception wise the entire season, just like Tennessee. And I don’t have the Giants that far behind them at 25, but I looked at it, I tried to handicap this game yesterday and every single key player offensively for the Giants didn’t even participate, I mean, every single one. And I’m like, “What can we do here?” So without knowing for sure who’s going to be there and how injured these guys are, how can you really put your hard earned money on this? Because the Giants actually do okay on the road, they place some teams tough, they show up when they can on the road when they’re healthy enough. So I lean the Giants, my metrics lean the Giants, but at this point I have to sit it out until there’s more information. I doubt if I’m going to get involved, unless I see an 11 and there’s a fair amount of the offensive players playing.
Matt:
Yeah. A lot of injury questions. So no action for us on that one for now. And we can move on to the next game on the card where still some injury questions, but we do have a bit more clarity, so we do have some action. That pertaining to San Francisco, Cincinnati, the 9ers currently laying at -120 on the road at BetUS, total 49. Cris, what are you looking for in this one as far as that total’s concerned?
Cris:
I like the over and it looks like both of these teams are going to be doing some scoring. I’m just painfully disappointed with that San Francisco performance last week still. They just did everything possible to just hand a horrible Seattle game, or Seattle team a win. I expect a much better performance from them this week. San Francisco has been doing very well. They’re number 10 in my rankings, believe it or not. Cinci is right behind them at 13, so I have San Francisco slightly the better team. And as we’ve talked about it all season long, Cincinnati last week, they had some injuries. They lost two people right before the game, they lost three people in the first half, they got a quarterback that’s got a fractured finger and they don’t have the depth.
Cris:
So they fell apart in that second half last week. So we saw what can happen. And I have these teams rated basically exactly where this line is at this point. I think San Francisco can run up and down the field with Kittle. I think he’s a monster, I think he’s one of the most important parts of a team in the NFL, but I’m not going to have a side on this game. I just see it as I like both of these teams, both of these teams are play on teams and I’m going to sit and watch it.
Matt:
Yeah. Well, you said a lot of the same things I’m thinking. Looking at the total, I’m with you on the over 49, a couple possible flights in the ointment could be Burrow’s pinky injuries you touched on, as well as Fred Warner on track to be back for San Francisco’s defense. But I still feel good about getting a play at this number. Samuel for San Francisco, probably not going to play, but a bit of a free role. If we do see him by any chance, this total’s got to get up into the 50s. And as it sits right now, I think the Bengals defense in a position to get neutralized at all three levels, their best pass [Roche 00:38:21], going to be locked up with Trent Williams. Their play collar in the middle of that defense recently injured along with their top cornerback. And Cris, you touched on it, kittle going to that Cincinnati defense, that’s a little bit soft over the middle, could bode very well for the 9ers offense.
Matt:
And on the other side of the ball at the Bengals, getting their offensive line back together after a bit of a cluster injury spot with their center and right tackle missing last week. Those guys being back in the fold could buy some time for burrow and a dynamic wide receiver core for the Bengals to go to town on a susceptible San Francisco secondary. Overall, I think that once Burrow’s confirmed in which I am expecting to see, this or probably gets closer to if not north of 50. So I like the over there. And Scott, let’s see what you think on this one, the side ping ponging a bit with the favorite earlier this week, it went from Cincinnati’s a short favorite to San Francisco as the short favorite on Wednesday. What do you make of that move and how do you see this one playing out? Yeah.
Scott:
I expect Burrow to play. So with the expected additions, deletions to both teams, some of the injuries you spoke of, I make the game [inaudible 00:39:24], so no play for me there. I’ve got this total though, and I don’t know that my number’s right, because it’s pretty far off, but I’ve got this thing down in the low 40s actually. I’m not playing the under; my numbers with San Francisco have been off all year, really from a total standpoint, I would say we know how San Francisco can get the run game going on e-clock and all that stuff. So there’s always that potential there. I would lean under because I checked another model just to see where that model’s at and that had this total pretty low too.
Scott:
So I’m going to lean under just because of that and respect it. But like I said, I’ve been off on the San Francisco totals this year and so I don’t trust them enough to really put any money on it. I’ve just been off on San Francisco as a whole this year too, so I don’t really trust doing much with that team. My numbers do lean a little bit to the under here.
Matt:
When you say you have your total for this game in the low 40s, that is a pretty substantial gap. I know you mentioned not really trusting your numbers, but as betters we do need to be off market in order to make a bet, otherwise, why would we lay -110 at the same time when you’re so far off market? That can raise some red flags. Any sense as to what it is that could have you this far off market with the San Francisco total?
Scott:
I don’t know. I started to go back through, we talked about this, I think maybe on Tuesday and taking a look at okay, well, what are the numbers when Kittles played or hasn’t played? So I started to look at that a little bit, I haven’t completely finished looking at that, but there might be something there with this team that’s just that much better offensively. I believe it was the passing stats I looked at, they were much better with Kittle playing obviously. So there might be some points there that maybe bring this total back up once I look into that a little bit. So that could be part of it as well. Otherwise I don’t know, that’s why I’m questioning. And I just need to look at this a little bit closer because it is so far off.
Scott:
And just forget about anyone’s models, just this game being put into the low 40s from a total standpoint, it just doesn’t sound right, right? So that’s what tells me that this thing’s probably off in some way, shape or form. And I have to look at it more to see if it comes back up, if I’m missing something. I’m not sure, to be honest.
Matt:
Got it. Well, it should be a fun watch and learn for you. Nevertheless, this looks like an entertaining matchup while Cris and I are on the total, Scott on the sidelines, but we’ll see what we can take away from this one. And it might be an even more [crosstalk 00:41:59]. Oh, Cris, jump back in here.
Cris:
Just one thing to add on that I think which throws the numbers off Scott is, Cincinnati’s given up points and bushels to the teams that are offensively very good. San Francisco’s a good offensive team. Cincinnati’s going to give up points, there’s no doubt about it.
Scott:
Yeah. And one of my models, Cris, I’ve just gone to look at it, it tries to measure how well they’re doing based on the level of competition they played too and one of the models doesn’t necessarily do that, so tried to take that into context a little bit. But you’re right. I mean, they’re giving up points to decent offensive teams here and San Francisco is that, so I think San Francisco’s offense has been a little bit underrated now. I don’t really trust Jimmy Garoppolo at all. I think, especially when they lose a Deebo Samuel who can do so many things for that offense attempt to make Garoppolo’s job a little bit easier along with the scheming that Shanahan does. So I always worry about that. If you really have to trust Garoppolo to do a lot of things, I just think that’s dangerous, but we’ll see.
Matt:
Yeah. Well, this game might be up there as one of the more marky matchups on most Sunday late afternoon slates, but we’ve got one that may one up at this week. Buffalo traveling to Tampa Bay, the Buccs currently laying 3.5 for even money at BetUS, total 54. Cris reluctant to say that you and I are going to go head to head in a side on this one. Why don’t you break it down for us first?
Cris:
I think the urgency for Buffalo is not a must win, must lose type of situation. I think Buffalo feels the urgency here, they’re going to show up. I know it’s a short week for them, but they’re going to go to a relaxing environment with some decent weather and boy, they were not happy after the last game. They didn’t like the interview questions and they didn’t like the way they came off on national TV, and I think that that should inspire pretty much maximum possible effort in this situation. And I don’t see Tampa Bay in any way, having to be desperate or in a must win. And it’s not like they’re going to just not show up for games, but I think the Buffalo we know is going to be there 100%. And Tampa Bay doesn’t care, they can win anywhere.
Cris:
They don’t have to have that number one spot. They want to stay healthy. That’s what their concern is. I have these teams rated very close together and I don’t see any justification for getting more than a field goal in this game. I do worry that Buffalo is one in three against the better teams that they’ve played, so maybe we do find out. If they lose this game and they don’t good, that’s going to really say a lot about Buffalo, because this is a game that they’re supposed to win. They should be able to chew up that secondary for Tampa Bay. And unfortunately, Tampa Bay is going to be able to have some success with Buffalo’s secondary with White gone too. But I just think that 3.5 is just too much. I would not be laying the 3.5 here.
Matt:
Yeah. Motivation doesn’t factor into my handicap, but two things I would push back on, first up with Tampa Bay, I think they’re going to be just as motivated as Buffalo. I got to believe they want that one seat, only one team getting the bye. That absolutely has to matter to them. And for the Bills, you touched on that post game press conference. I don’t understand what those guys were so upset about, getting asked why they struggled to stop the run. I mean, we knew it was coming to the tune of 46 rush attempts for the Patriots and yet New England continuously imposed its will. Seemed like a very fair question and the Bills, maybe just wanting to come up with something to stir the pot, to force motivation for themselves. But I thought a lot was made out of a pretty basic question, to be honest.
Matt:
So just looking at this one, trying to factor all that out of this, I would definitely recommend shopping for a three If you’re looking for Tampa Bay. That hook could be a maker break factor here, but at even money I’m okay laying the 3.5. I think the Bills may look like they’re at home away from home. Cris, you touched on the conditions and Buffalo, despite where they play, a team that’s much better suited for the conditions we’ll see on Sunday. But again, a short week for them off a very physical Monday night game, a lot of body blows absorbed by that defense taking on 46 rush attempts from New England. Tampa Bay might magnify that with a fast pace on offense to really wear out that defense. And you touched on it Cris, the absence of Trey white may be much more noticeable this Sunday than it was on Monday night.
Matt:
So that has me looking Tampa Bay’s way as far as the side’s concerned. And I’m also on play on the total here, I like the over 54. A lot of that aligns with the handicap on the Buccs side of things. I also think that the Bills do have a pass first offense that benefits them against the Tampa Bay defense that is really strong stopping the run. So that could help Jack up the scoreboard with Buffalo being more pass heavy. And I think that some stats we saw on Monday night, we touched on this Tuesday, pretty misleading. I mean, Josh Allen, maybe the best performance we’ll ever see from a quarterback that only completes half his passes for a mere 4.1 yards per attempt. He was great on Monday, a similar performance could really help get this one over.
Matt:
That might give me some trepidation with this side, but still comfortable with Tampa and the over considering the Bill’s defense inflated by those Monday night metrics, 19 passing yards allowed by the bill secondary, that might be the most misleading stat of the season. So give me Tampa Bay at -3.5 for even money, over 54. Scott, I know you’re not in play on the side, but tell us what you’re looking for as far as the total’s concerned.
Scott:
Yeah. I’m with you on this, Matt. I’m on the over, I made the number 56.5 so we got some value to the over. And I think this is a perfect game for Buffalo. This plays right into Buffalo’s hands in that they can throw the ball here against this Tampa Bay team. And this is what Buffalo wants to do, they don’t really want to run the ball necessarily. Alan will obviously pick up yards with his speed to keep the chains moving, but they like to go throw and they’re going to be able to throw against this secondary think. And just looking back to the beginning of last year when Stefon Diggs came and really took this offense to the next level, because remember prior to that last year, this was a run first team, struggled to throw the ball.
Scott:
Alan was still coming to his own. All of a sudden they bring Diggs in there, they got some other pieces and now Alan looks to be a very good quarterback and obviously he’s got a great receiver there. So since the beginning of last year, they’re five and out of the over where games are totaled in the 50s. So when they’re playing games that are to this level where they’re expected to score some points, they’re matching that. They go to Vegas last year, win 30 to 23. They lose that game at Tennessee on Monday night, last year, 16 to 42. They just had a bunch of turnovers that made that game lopsided. They lose 30 to 32 at Arizona. That was the Hail Mary game if you remember that. 38-20 this year at Kansas City, and 31-34 this year at Tennessee.
Scott:
So when these totals are a little bit higher, they’re playing to that. It seems to be in their mode of what they like to do in terms of just moving the ball. And I think they’re going to be able to move the ball here. They’re number five in my passing offense, Tampa Bay, number 24 in my pass defense. So again, this just plays right in their hands, Tampa Bay, they’ll run the ball, they’ll throw the ball. I do think just for future dialogue on Tampa Bay, not having Antonio Brown and now there’s talk that maybe they’ll get rid of him because of the whole false vaccination card and all that stuff, I think Tampa Bay does lose something in their offense, are a little bit more, not dink and dunk, but you don’t see the Antonio Brown own type guy running down the field 40, 50 yards down the field.
Scott:
So they’ve lost a little bit there, but they still have obviously plenty of weapons growing. Gronkowski is huge form so I expect them to get their points as well. And again, at Devis white, we didn’t see that impact last week at all. So we’ll see what impact that has, but there’s value to the over in this game for me and I like it. I think it’s a good matchup for the over. Should be plenty of throwing.
Matt:
Yeah. Should be a fun one to watch. Well, we’ve just got two primetime games to go. So let’s hit the home stretch. First up Sunday night football, Chicago at Green Bay. The Packers laying 13 at even money, total 43. Scott, what are you looking for in this one for your Packers playing under the lights at Lambeau Field?
Scott:
A little bit of value to Green Bay and the over here, looks like we’re going to get Justin Fields at quarterback. He’s dead last for me and pass offense when they’re playing fields. We’ve talked about this so many times, Matt. Now, obviously this line’s inflated a little bit more. Remember they went to the Rams Week 1, and that line was what? Six or seven, I think at the Rams, but Chicago, since the beginning of last year, they have not fared well on the road against good teams. They lose by 14 to the Rams last year, lose by seven to Tennessee, by 16 at Green Bay, 41-25. By 20 to the Rams this year, 34-14, by 35 to Tampa Bay, 38 to three, that was a Justin Fields game. And I don’t know if Cleveland’s a playoff team, that remains be seen, but they lost 26 to six to Cleveland this year, again with Justin Fields as well.
Scott:
In Green Bay, they won all their home games this year by 10 or more, so they’re taking care of business at home. They’ve dominated this team. I’m not willing to go to the window and lay a whole bunch of points, double digits here with Green Bay. But I do think there’s a little bit of value here, and this total’s pretty low, 43. You got to figure Green Bay is going to get to 27, 28, 30 points in this game, especially with Chicago. Remember they don’t have Cleo Mack, they’re a little bit deficient on the defensive side. So I think Green Bay is going to do their share. And then it just comes down to, does Chicago get anything here? They have run the ball okay this year and they might be able to run the ball a little bit on this Green Bay defense to at least move the ball a little bit and get a few points. But I lean Green Bay, I lean over in this game, but no official play for me.
Matt:
Yeah, I lean Green Bay with you as well. Should be good to see Rogers in that toe injury, better rested off the bi-week and for the Bears, getting Fields back. Not sure that matters, and regardless of directionally, whether that helps or hurts them, what keeps me off this one is the added variance of a guy like Fields, as opposed to a quarterback like Dalton. So going to pass this one, should be a good watch and learn. Cris, what are you looking for on Sunday night football?
Cris:
I have variance written in the notes.
Matt:
Oh, I think I had it first, but take it away.
Cris:
You probably did. No, I agree 100% on the variance. Fields could be a fun bull machine in his own side of the field and create quick points for Green Bay or else he could be like that guy in Pittsburgh railing the troops of a sluggish Green Bay off the bye. So I don’t see any value in the metrics here. I know that Rogers shamed the Bears saying we own you, but they don’t have enough to really fight back with at this point. That was like kicking a guy when he is down, quite frankly, with Rogers, it was beneath him. So I’m just going to sit it out. I just could see any scenario happening in this game.
Matt:
Well, Cris, you won’t be sitting out the last one. Another week where we might be saving the best matchup for last, Monday night football, the Rams traveling to Arizona to take on the Cardinals, Arizona laying 2.5, total 51. Cris, let us know who you like in this NFC West matchup.
Cris:
Oh, I think the Arizona Cardinals are flying under the radar. I mean, everybody respects them, but I think we were talking about it earlier in the week when Arizona had those tough wins when Murray was out, people faulted the teams that they beat instead of giving the Cardinals the credit they deserved. And I think that’s exactly where Arizona likes to be frankly. It’s out of the big city limelight, it fits their profile, so to speak. So they’re getting healthier. I have them as the better team by not that much, actually the Rams have been closing the gap a little bit. Both teams have been down over the last five weeks, but Arizona’s been primarily because Hopkins has been out and Murray’s been out, but Arizona’s at steady Eddie. And the one thing that we did notice last week is McVay started running a lot of plays with six men on the line.
Cris:
He normally doesn’t do that. He only does it once or twice in a game. I think he did it 26 times or 24 times last week. So they’re changing their style of play, they’re trying to run the ball better. So that’s going to be a little different from the first matchup between these two teams where Arizona won. I’m still not sold Stafford as healthy, I worry about his health and I worry about his big game performance. We don’t need to regurgitate that he’s had very poor success against over 500 teams. So with that in mind, on a short number, I got to like Arizona.
Matt:
Yeah. I can’t fault that look at all. This is another one where I’m going against you, but not really head to head because I’ll be teasing the Rams up to plus 8.5 pairing them with Atlanta. And it was good to see Murray and Hopkins back for the Cardinals last week. I still didn’t think they looked 100% and we’ve seen a lot of games, especially early on in Murray’s career where he’s playing, but if he’s a little bit hobbled that can really compromise his ability as a dynamic dual threat quarterback. So that might be just a bit of a nudge to keep the Rams in this game. I like it as a number grabbed crossing through those key numbers of three and seven, again, a big divisional rivalry that usually implies some reduced variance that’s good for underdogs going up through a touchdown in a teaser. So can’t fault the look at the Cardinals straight up, but I also like the number, getting the Rams up to plus 8.5 to pair with the Falcons and a teaser. So that’s my look at this one. Scott, what are you anticipating Monday night between the Rams and Cardinals?
Scott:
I’ve got this thing pretty much where the line and total are, so nothing for me. If the Rams are going to have success, I’ve got them number eight in rushing offense, Arizona, number 29 in rushing defense. So Arizona has not stopped to run real well this year. To Cris’s point, maybe they go to the six man offensive line, they try to generate some offense that way, but I’ve also got Arizona very high in passing offense. And this is a Rams pass defense, 23 in pass defense. Look, they’ve got Aaron Donald, obviously a great player in defensive line. Jalen Ramsey, obviously a great player in the secondary. Von Miller, now they’ve added. I don’t know how much is left of Von Miller, but he still could be an impact player. And they got Stafford who’s a pretty good quarterback, but maybe he’s banged up to Cris’s point, but they do lack a fair amount of depth once you get beyond some of those elite players for them.
Scott:
So I worry about that a little bit. I think Arizona’s the better team here. My numbers just don’t really give me value to play on it. And again, this is one of those high total divisional matchups. So just a word of caution, these tend to go under late in the season. I will say having said that, just looking back with McVay there, there’s seven and two to the over as road dogs under Sean McVay. So when they’re the inferior team, they’re giving up some points. Fortunately for them, they’ve been able to score some points as well. And then last year they were a small road favorite here at Arizona, they won that game 38-28 here. So we have seen in this profile the teams at the Rams play, the games have tended to be a little bit higher scoring, but again, that under situation has just been consistent year after year.
Scott:
So I’m not looking to play over and my numbers don’t really support the under as well. So I’m going to sit back and watch. I think it’s going to be a great game. Other than Arizona winning the first game, and sometimes you feel like the Rams might be more focused coming back, but I feel like Arizona is the better team in this game.
Matt:
Yeah. Cris, I’d like to-
Cris:
Did you guys hear? I thought I heard that Donald had some sort of an injury issue that was kept low key. Did he show up on the injury reports at all this week for anything?
Scott:
You’re talking about Aaron Donald, right?
Cris:
Yeah.
Scott:
I didn’t see that. Doesn’t mean it didn’t happen, I don’t know. Have you seen that, Matt?
Matt:
I haven’t seen anything on that either, but it’s definitely worth monitoring over the next couple of days as I try to make sure to get the full exposure I want on a Rams teaser, because if Stafford’s under the radar, not so great. If Donald’s also hampered, then that could definitely be cause for pause if that is indeed the case.
Cris:
Yeah. You know what? It was one of those things where I was on the phone or I was on some other business and I’m listening to a podcast or a radio show and somebody was mentioning that he left the field and nobody made a big deal about it, but he was clearly in pain or there was an issue with him and I meant to get back to that and I never did. So just something to pay attention to, I would think. And then last year Murray was not like this year. He was really banged up last year, they should have just sat him. He was a shell of himself and that’s why the team collapsed there. There was no Zach Ertz to help him out and the supporting cast that he has this year. So they’re going to have a tougher time coming to Arizona than last year.
Matt:
Yeah. Cris, one more thing I wanted to follow up on. You mentioned the Rams showing six guys on the offensive line last week as a look to change things up. I think you also mentioned on a recent show McVay getting caught onto in the middle of a lot of his recent seasons. Is that a possible change that you think could be McVay knowing the league’s on him, changing things up, and maybe that could be an edge for Rams down the stretch that they haven’t had in recent years? As I grab a cough drop, because I want to keep my voice for the rest of the show.
Cris:
Yeah. I mean, I who knows? But he’s a sharp guy and he’s doing something that’s better than nothing and you have to expect that he’s going to do it again this week. It’s atypical of him to make those changes, and if we are aware of some of the ways that the Rams have offensively regressed every single year, well, somebody has obviously passed that information along to him and you would think he’d make an effort to change that. So certainly look for some changes, you’d have to be an idiot not to make some changes
Matt:
You. Yeah, well should be a really fun one to watch on Monday night. And that takes us to the end of our Week 14 breakdown. So we can take a look at our best bets for the week. We have some consensus, Scott and myself on the over in Tampa Bay. I am going head to head with Cris in that same game on the side, Cris taking the Bills plus 3.5. I am laying the 3.5 with Tampa Bay. Beyond that Cris, if you want to walk us down your card for the week and isolate your favorite bet on the board.
Cris:
My favorite bet on the board. Let’s see, I’ve got the Saints -5.5, that’s not it. Carolina -2.5, that’s not it. Denver -10, that’s probably not it. San Francisco over 49, that’s not it.
Matt:
Do you like any of your bets this week?
Cris:
Well, no, I’m just trying process of elimination. It’s doesn’t mean I… It’s just not the favorite.
Matt:
I know, I know. Just please don’t say Buffalo.
Cris:
Buffalo is not my favorite because I think it’s not going to shock me if Tampa Bay takes care of business. They’re supposed to take care of business. I just think Buffalo is better than people think they are. I’d probably go with their Arizona as being my favorite with the Dallas -4.5, which you should be able to get a four someplace, being my second favorite.
Matt:
Nice. Yeah. Well, I wish we could just say Minnesota minus the three, Cris, since we already know how that one turned out, despite the crazy end game, but looking at things moving forward, I am also on the Browns -2.5, Falcons, Panthers, first half under 20.5. Also teasing Atlanta up to plus 8.5, paired with the Rams, plus 8.5. San Francisco, Cinci over 49. Tampa, -3.5. And Buffalo, Tampa over 54. I’m going to give my best look to Cleveland -2.5 purely from a number standpoint, I think this one close to three, where it’s not there already and that hook can make all the difference in the world, especially in a low scoring game probably without too much variance in this AFC North showdown. So I’ll give that out to Browns -2.5 as my favorite bet on the board as things stand right now. Scott, how about you as far as the Week 14 portfolio is concerned?
Scott:
I think the Buffalo Tampa over 54, would probably be my favorite here. Buffalo has shown in Tennessee to score quite a few points when they’ve gone on the road and it’s a high total. This does play into their hands, being able to throw the ball and whatnot. And Tampa Bay’s going to obviously throw the ball, and Tampa Bay’s not going to take their foot off the gas pedal. I mean, I suppose if they’re up by 20 points, by some strange reason, maybe they would, but Tampa Bay’s going to feel that they need to score all the points they can possibly score to win this game knowing Buffalo can do the same thing. So I think we’ve got some value there. And then I guess second here would probably be Dallas as well. There’s just a lot of value in my numbers on Dallas here, as Cris said earlier, selling a little bit high in Washington and I don’t know if it’s bye and low on Dallas, but they’re finally getting healthy. And I think they’re the superior team in this as well.
Cris:
Well, I think I’m screwed here because Colin coward just put the Bills on his blazing five.
Matt:
All right, I’ll take it. Well, fingers crossed going head to head with Cris doesn’t backfire on me. We’ve had some good fortune in some other recent consensus plays, so we’ll see how it shakes out on Sunday. That wraps up our Week 14 breakdown. Thanks again for joining us. If you’re still with us on YouTube, give us a quick thumbs up, subscribe to the channel on your way out and best of luck with your action this weekend. Friendly reminder, we’ll be back with you live as always on Tuesday at 5:30 PM Eastern, 2:30 Pacific for our early look at Week 15. We’ll see you then right back here at BetUS sportsbook where the game begins
