NFL Picks: Week 15 | NFL Odds, NFL Expert Predictions for Sunday & MNF Picks

Speaker 1:

This NFL season, Matt Landes, Las Vegas Cris and Scott Kellen will break down the games live every Tuesday and Friday on our BetUS NFL YouTube channel. Subscribe, hit that bell now, and never miss a show. BetUS, where the game begins.

Speaker 2:

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers led by Tom Brady, are one of the heavy favorites to beat the Saints. Sean Payton has never been a double-digit underdog in his professional career, and Brady has become the first favorite to win the NFL MVP award this season. The Patriots and Packers are two of the hottest teams against the spread.

Speaker 2:

The Patriots have covered seven straight games, but they are underdogs against the Colts on the road. The Packers have an 11 and two ATS record, which is tied for the greatest 13 game start in Super Bowl history, and they are underdogs against the Ravens on the road. As the holidays approach, the regular season is extended to include a Saturday stretch in addition to the standard Thursday, Sunday, Monday night schedule.

Speaker 2:

And despite the fact that the NFL, like the rest of the country, is dealing with a rise in COVID 19 cases, the schedule will go as planned. And while the outbreaks have not yet required games to be postponed, the anticipated absence of key players may have an impact on the result of games with postseason implications for the teams involved.

Speaker 2:

No need to panic, because on today’s show, our NFL guys will discuss this and share their free picks. And of course you can always ask away on our live chat. So, without further ado, let’s jump right to it.

Matt Landes:

NFL week 15 is here, and guys, it kicked off with a bang. A thriller between the Chiefs and Chargers last night. A lot of noise this morning about Brandon Staley’s process going for it on fourth down. And I’ve got to say, it’s eerily quiet when it comes to the lack of execution. Mike Williams and Jared Cook dropping touchdown passes, Joshua Kelley losing a fumble at the one.

Matt Landes:

So, Scott, I want to get your take on this as a pro better. Hindsight, certainly just a reality in the world we live in, but when you hear all this noise, does it op open up any opportunity for you as a better, or do you just do anything with it to try to exploit some edges on the board?

Scott Kellen:

For me, Matt, the only thing that really matters for me and that I was happy with is that Staley just kept doing it, he kept going for it. He believes in something and he keeps doing it. And unlike like a Mike McCarthy or somebody who sometimes he goes for it, then he doesn’t go for it. He’s very unpredictable in that way. And I think that makes it harder. At least with Staley you kind of know what you’re getting.

Scott Kellen:

And I don’t know about exploiting it in another way, but at least it’s predictable and as betters really all we’re looking for is just something that’s predictable that we can wager on, because we think we have a clue of what’s going to happen. And at least with him you know what you’re getting, and then you do what you do with that, right? But at least you kind of have an idea of what he’s going to do.

Matt Landes:

Yeah. And Cris, I want to turn it over to you, digging the background today, by the way. A nice fat check and you might have another big check coming your way because you were on the Chiefs minus the points last night. Second straight week getting off on the right foot with a sweaty Thursday night cover. I heard you didn’t watch a snap of that game. So, you might have missed the game of the year, but what do you make of the result and what you have gathered from the way things transpired last night between the Chiefs and Chargers?

Las Vegas Cris:

It’s just remarkable the support that the Chargers seem to get. I haven’t had them in the top 10 at any time this season and they weren’t even in the top 15 entering this game. And I see a lot of people moaning and groaning it’s a bad beat. The Chargers don’t do a lot of things well. I mean they’re a highlight reel, and aside from that, there’s a lot of things they do wrong.

Las Vegas Cris:

There’s questionable coaching, there’s the special needs or special teams, and the defense overall is bottom 10. What do you expect? If you’re going to bet bad teams, bad teams lose more game by bad beats than the good teams. The good teams find a way to win. And that’s part of the handicap. If you’re going to bet bad teams, expect that you’re going to get hosed.

Matt Landes:

Yeah. I mean we could have a whole other conversation on another day about whether or not the Charges were a bad team having beaten the Chiefs in Kansas City and then going toe to toe with them again last night. But we can table that, because we’ve got a week 15 card to get to. I know that’s what the people are here for. And as we turn that page, we can take a look at our records for the season to date.

Matt Landes:

Cris, I believe yours will be one better than what we see on the screen here after last night’s Chief’s win and cover. And we’ll look to build on this as we work our way down the week 15 card. Before we dive into week 15, quick shout out to our YouTube audience. Please go ahead and give us a quick thumbs up, subscribe to the channel, jump in that chat, let us know what you think as we work our way down the week 15 board.

Matt Landes:

And before we get to our first Sunday games, if you’re looking for breakdowns on Raiders, Browns, Patriots, Colts, or Texans, Jaguars, you can catch those including some picks on our Tuesday show. And Cris, one pick you didn’t have on our Tuesday show that you’ve added today pertains to that Patriots-Colts game, how are you looking for that one to go down?

Las Vegas Cris:

Yeah, I’ve got to put my pick in now. So, there’s an outside chance that a three minus 120 might reappear. I have that in hand, but as far as getting the official BetUS number, I’m going to have to settle for the plus two and a half. I think both of these teams have issues with scheduling and who they’ve beaten and who they haven’t. And I’m a little bit apprehensive about New England. This could be where things go south for them, and it’s a bad spot for the Patriots, quite frankly.

Las Vegas Cris:

But it would not surprise me to see the Colts. I took Frank Reich at 75 to one to win coach of the year. If he runs the table, he’s coach of the year as far as I’m concerned. And I don’t think there’s a single team in the AFC that wants to face the Colts in the playoffs. So, I think the Colts are the real deal. I think New England still has a little bit more to prove, but I’ve got to take the points. I’ve got New England slightly the better team.

Matt Landes:

And perhaps one of the reasons you’re locking in that pick today as opposed to Tuesday, this has been a tough week to forecast market movement. And I know you had something you wanted to follow up on from the cornerstone of our Tuesday show, is that that line movement prediction just wacky on a week like this.

Las Vegas Cris:

Yeah. A lot of the line movements followed up this week and the one I really take responsibility for, I can’t figure out why Denver didn’t go down. It went up. So, that’s on me, but a lot of these other ones were either injury related or coach firing related and such. So, I don’t feel too bad about those. But the Denver one, that was off the mark. I apologize.

Matt Landes:

Yeah. Well, opportunity for redemption coming up a bunch of games to get to on Sunday and into Monday night. So, let’s get to it starting with the early window on Sunday, Washington at Philadelphia. And this game among a few currently off the board, just too many unknowns right now with this week’s news cycle, but let’s break it down the best we can. Scott, what do you think we’re going to see transpire in Philadelphia come Sunday between the Eagles and Washington?

Scott Kellen:

Yeah, Matt, there’s probably four games, one of them being the Cleveland game, which we already talked about. And then maybe three more that we’ll hit today where one team is really decimated by COVID. So, to me it’s kind of hard to really break the team down or the game down. I mean Washington here, they’re probably down to their fifth option at center. That’s not good. Their defensive line is decimated.

Scott Kellen:

Parts of their secondary are now out. And I guess here’s the other caveat to all this and anything we talk about COVID, or anything anyone’s thinking about from a COVID standpoint, the NFL kind of just came back and revised their COVID guidelines. And I can’t even tell you exactly what they are, other than people who are testing positive for COVID have the ability to come back a little bit quicker than under the old protocols.

Scott Kellen:

So, we could see some of these players still have a chance to actually play on Sunday. That bears Washington well. But with that all said, Washington’s just decimated here. So, I can’t really make any reasoning out of X’s and O’s, and who’s going to win the line of scrimmage other than Washington’s been decimated, so now I just kind of default to what my numbers are in the game based on what we know right now.

Scott Kellen:

And I favor Philly by about eight and a half points. Now, Terry McLaurin, I think this is more injury related, Curtis Samuel and I haven’t factored in Taylor Heinicke, who now is on the COVID list as well. If all three of those don’t play and Heinicke probably doesn’t, but who knows, we’re probably up to about 11 and a half line for me. Long way of saying no play for me, but that’s kind of where I make the number right now.

Matt Landes:

Yeah. A couple things I’ll be looking for is the Eagle’s quarterback situation. It sounds like Hurts and Minshew have been splitting reps. I’m not sure if it matters too much in this case, because as you alluded to, basically a pre-season roster Washington’s going to be fielding at this point. And even with a lot more of their starters last week, 27-20 might have been the most misleading final score of week 14. Washington was not that close to Dallas, and Dallas backers had to sweat that cover to the bitter end, but the Cowboys are up by 19 in the middle of fourth quarter.

Matt Landes:

And they would’ve been up by even more, if not for a one for six day in the red zone and a pick six by deck. I think that ball control offense Washington’s been running has been really effective when they’re able to stay on script, but it leaves a little margin for error if they come into a deficit, and they’re probably going to be in a bit of a deficit against the Eagles on Sunday. So, that’s what I’m going to be keeping an eye on in this one. Cris, how about you?

Las Vegas Cris:

It’s a little disappointing. It would’ve been nice to see the guys go at it. I have Philadelphia number five, or Washington and Philly number five and six over the last five weeks in improvement. So, they’re making the playoff push and it looks like Philadelphia’s going to have quite the advantage here. So, I can’t have a play in this game.

Matt Landes:

Yeah. Well, let’s move on to the next game where I know, Cris, you were close to having a play, but now it appears to be off the board, a bit of a unfortunate theme for some of these games this week. Carolina traveling to Buffalo and, Cris, if we do see this pop back on the board anytime soon, tell us where you would look to possibly place your wager?

Las Vegas Cris:

I like Buffalo in this spot. I’m surprised that it looks like Allen’s going to go. It just seemed like a perfect spot to sit him, but he’s going to go. And Buffalo’s has to wake up here. They’re rated number 22 over the last five weeks as far as progress goes, and then that’s not very good. I think they own five in one score games, I think, if I’m not mistaken. They’re not beating the good teams.

Las Vegas Cris:

I mean this was a team that was supposed to go to the Super Bowl. So, Carolina basically has no offense at all, and this is a perfect spot for Buffalo to get healthy at home. And Buffalo has a history of taking care of business against the bad teams. They’re just struggling against the good teams. So, I expect them to fall to form and take care of this Carolina team that’s basically just running out the clock here.

Matt Landes:

When you mentioned the Bill’s struggling in close games, do you think there’s anything fundamental about that team that could give them issues in tight games later on? Or do you think there’s something that we could see them see some positive regression, because typically teams tend to net out about even in one score games?

Las Vegas Cris:

Well, it doesn’t affect my handicap at all. I kind of think it’s just an oddity that, like you referenced, it probably regresses back to normal. I haven’t seen any blatant examples of them choking and falling apart at the seams. They had a great season last year, they had playoff experience. They’ve got quality coaching and veterans, so there’s no excuse for it. I think it’s more or less just a coincidence, quite frankly.

Matt Landes:

Yeah.

Scott Kellen:

yeah.

Matt Landes:

In one of those once score games… Oh, jump in, Scott.

Scott Kellen:

I was just going to say the one thing I haven’t liked about Buffalo this year is they don’t really run the ball real well. They’re a throwing team, right? So, to Cris’s point, when they’re playing these inferior teams, they can run their offense, they can do their thing. It’s fine. They got plenty of talent, blah, blah, blah. But you get in a game against some of these better teams, you can’t just go back and drop back and throw the ball 45 times a game. These teams are good. They’re going to make you pay for it. And even though we know throwing wins in this league, I just don’t feel like they’re set up properly right now to really run their offense against the good teams. And I feel they pay for that at times, and it hurts them a little bit.

Las Vegas Cris:

I think they’ll be lucky to make the playoffs. They probably will, but I don’t think they can go anywhere in the playoffs for exactly the reasons you just said.

Matt Landes:

Yeah. I think something that could work in their favor, Cris, in those one score games, last week another one in Tampa. I mean the Bills just two for 13 on third down, lost the turnover battle. Still in it to the very end. So, I do think that was more impressive than the final scoreboard would reflect. And on the Panther side of things, they maybe weren’t in it so much after they took an early lead against Atlanta, and they can no longer blame their offensive issues on Joe Brady. So Scott, plenty of work for the Panthers to do on that side of the ball.

Scott Kellen:

Yeah. I’ve said this time and time, Matt, I’m not a Cam Newton fan. I know we may get a mix of Cam Newton and PJ Walker maybe, but now Cam Newton in this game, Lacey’s got plenty of room for air here as it relates to the line at least, of course. But the one interesting thing with Matt Rhule, Carolina’s eight and two against the spread is a road dog.

Scott Kellen:

So, he’s been somewhat competitive in these games, and obviously they’re getting a whole bunch of points here. Buffalo though, when they play these below average offenses, what we’re getting in Carolina here, they’ve allowed 17 or less points in seven of those eight games. They don’t figure to give up a lot of points here. Carolina’s hurting a little bit in the secondary. They’ve got some injuries back there as well, which may allow Buffalo to take advantage of that a little bit as well.

Scott Kellen:

I make the number about 12 and a half, the total of about 43.3. Their left tackle, Dion Dawkins for Buffalo did test out for COVID, so good chance he’ll miss the game. It’s not great, but it’s not a huge detriment to them. They can move some pieces around. For me, my number is just too close to wherever this line’s probably going to pop back up. So, it’s no play for me in this game.

Matt Landes:

Yeah. Well, good news, we do have a play on the next game, because this game is on the board. The first one of the day, the Jets at the Dolphins. Miami, a double digit favorite, currently playing 10 for reduced vig, minus 105, total 41. Cris, you’re on the side in this one, tell us who you like?

Las Vegas Cris:

Yeah, I just think this line’s a little over inflated. It looks like as many as eight Dolphins are on the COVID list at this point, including Waddle, a key component of the offense. Miami’s been on fire. They’re the hottest team in the league right now. I have them as the number one team in progress over the last five weeks, gaining almost seven points of value, which is considerable. And they’re doing it on both sides of the ball. They’re number three on offense, number one on defense.

Las Vegas Cris:

But I just think it’s too many points for a divisional game like this. These games always tend to end up… the teams, know each other and they end up closer traditionally. The metrics say that this is just not even close, and maybe the data’s a little bit behind and hasn’t caught up. Because I do think Miami’s a darn good team and they’re overperforming what metric numbers I would have for the entire season.

Las Vegas Cris:

But even factoring that and giving them a boost, 10 is just too much. So, I’m going to take the banana in the tailpipe with the Jets on this one.

Matt Landes:

Yeah. No interest in laying double digits on my end, but we can break this game down a bit on our Tuesday show. Scott and I both talked about teasing Miami. At the time they were only laying eight and a half, so we have both teased Miami down through the seven and the three. And Cris, you touched on some areas in which the Dolphins may be a bit shorthanded. But in their favor, I mean this Jets opponent, that 30 to nine final score last week against the Saints, I think that was a pretty fair final result.

Matt Landes:

And just really showcased the gap between the Jets and any semblance of competence in the NFL right now. Also liking the Dolphins coming in off their buy. And it’s the last call for some home cooking for Miami. This is the finale of a stretch between November 1st and the day after Christmas with just one road game, zero trips outside the Eastern time zone. So, again, not going to lay the double digits and go against you, Cris, but I don’t mind the Dolphins as that teaser leg asking the clearly superior team at home off the buy to do a little more than win outright.

Matt Landes:

If we do see a bit more Jets money hit the market, then the Dolphins, plenty of appeal as a teaser leg. Scott, anything to build on in terms of your infatuation with the Dolphins also in a teaser this week?

Scott Kellen:

Yeah, you’re right, teaser. Couple things in that, Cris. It looks like the running backs, Gaskin and I think Phillip Lindsay are cleared from COVID, so they’ll come back. They are without Waddle. That’s important. And let’s remember they do did get DeVante Parker back. I can’t remember was Miami in a buy last week?

Las Vegas Cris:

Yeah.

Scott Kellen:

Yeah, so I don’t remember if Parker played the week before, if he’s just coming back now, but they’ll get a little help there. Waddle’s a loss though. I don’t think there’s any question about that. Kind of forgotten the Jets probably are getting running back Michael Carter back. Pretty good running back for them. So, that helps the Jets a little bit as well. I’ve got the number at five and a half. Earlier in the week, before the Waddle and Carter coming back and some adjustments here and there from a COVID standpoint, I had Miami higher up by about eight, but I’ve got them five and a half.

Scott Kellen:

So, to your point, Cris, the number is probably a little bit high. Tua though, first of all, he’s eight and one against the spread in his games at home where he’s played at least 40% of the snaps. Now, that’s a little backfitting, because that means if he didn’t play well, he got pulled. So, that’s not being coded in there, I get that. But he’s played pretty well at home, number one. The other thing I heard this a couple weeks ago and they were on a buy last week, so I didn’t bring it up, but it’s kind of funny, Tua’s numbers are very close to Mac Jones’ numbers if you want to go look them up.

Scott Kellen:

Completion percentage, area yards per attempt, interceptions. Mac Jones has got a lot more bigger plays. I’m not suggesting that Tua is Mac Jones, but it is kind of funny, people kind of get down on Tua and they think Mac Jones is the next Tom Brady or something. And these two have very similar numbers this year throwing the ball, which people probably don’t realize. Tua’s first game last year that he started, I believe was in this game. They beat the Jets 24 nothing.

Scott Kellen:

This Miami defense is playing well. They’ve allowed 17 or less in five straight games now. And I don’t see anything coming from this Jets offense that’s anything different than what Miami has played here in the last five games. You had Baltimore in there, but then everything else was… The Carolinas of the world, the Houstons of the world, some pretty bad offenses as well. It is Zach Wilson. I think this defense will cause some problems for him. I have no interest in laying the 10 points. I got no problem with Cris taking 10.

Scott Kellen:

I think there’s value there, but I also do like the teaser here with Miami. And I think there’s a fairly decent chance we can get that home. I would also lean under in this game. I made the total 37 and a half. Would’ve preferred to have 42. It’s now down to about of 41, but I would lean under in this game as well. They scored total 41 up in New York a couple weeks ago.

Matt Landes:

Yeah, Scott, a pretty big theme in this game, struggling offenses. And as we hit the next game on the board, a couple more sputtering offenses as of late, the Cowboys traveling to take on the Giants. Dallas laying 11 on the road, total 44 anda half. And Scott, at least for one of these teams it sounds like you’re expecting the recent struggles on offense to turn around for the better here?

Scott Kellen:

Yeah. I think Dallas is going to miss left tackle Tyron Smith. That’s a pretty big miss for them, but the rest of this team is actually pretty healthy now, given everything that they’ve gone through. I think Tony Pollard will even come back this week and play. And he’s a nice one-two punch with Zeke. And the Giants here are hurting in the secondary. Their quarterback, Adoree’ Jackson’s out, Aaron Robinson’s out, Xavier McKinney, safety, is out.

Scott Kellen:

So, they’re hurting in the secondary. And this is the team that Dallas, I think, can basically take advantage of here. The last three years, Dak didn’t play here last year of course, but the three years prior to that, in which the Giants were not a very good team, much like this year, Dallas has scored 37, 36, 30 points.

Scott Kellen:

I like them over the team total 27 and a half here. Dak and his history is 10, three, and one against the spread as a road favorite, against teams who finished below 500. That’s also counting Washington and New Orleans as opponents this year, assuming they finish under 500. They’re currently under 500. And to the best offenses that the Giants have faced this year, they’ve allowed 44, 38, 20 to Kansas City, 30 and 37 points. So, they’re giving up points against the best offenses.

Scott Kellen:

Dallas has taken advantage of these to types of teams, including this team specifically. They’ve got all the receivers healthy, missing a left tackle, but I think they can still overcome that. As far as just the line in general, I make it just under 11. So, no value there. I made the total of about 51 and a half points. So, you could go over in this game as well. I just feel a little safer taking it from the Dallas team total standpoint.

Scott Kellen:

I trust them to do their part of it, as opposed to having to rely on the Giants to possibly get some points as well, to get you over the total. So, Dallas over 27 and a half team total.

Matt Landes:

All right. Well, I better hope the Giants put up a goose egg, because I am in play on the under 44 and a half in this one. Definitely feeling some trepidation about that after hearing you break down this game. But I couldn’t get over looking at the Cowboys recently and kind of realizing their defense is probably better than their offense right now. I mean offensively Dak, since that calf injury in week six, 27th among quarterbacks and EPA per play.

Matt Landes:

And we saw it play out last week. I mean two more interceptions, including a pick six, he took four sacks, QBR less than 10. Not going to help, as you touched on Scott, with Tyron Smith being out in this one. Zeke and Pollard hobbled out of the backfield, only six touchdowns in the last four weeks for Dallas. So, I don’t expect them to be mired in this kind of slump forever, but I’m not sure that this is suddenly the spot they break out of it given some of the health questions I have around their offense.

Matt Landes:

But I do really like what we’ve seen from them defensively. I mean now having that trio of Gregory Lawrence and Parsons up front. I think this pass rush is just taking it to a next level that’s much better than their season long stats would reflect. And as far as the Giants are concerned offensively, certainly lacking at quarterback and offensive coordinator. Not that they weren’t lacking at offensive coordinator when Jason Garrett was still on the sidelines, but I do still like this game to play out under 44 and a half.

Matt Landes:

I’m going to hope that maybe the Cowboys just score a bunch of points for you, Scott, and the Giants can perhaps put up a goose egg here. I am going to give it a split ticket as well, looking at the first half under 23, just to avoid any potential craziness in the second half like we saw again with the Cowboys in Washington last week, with Washington making a bit of a rally. So, a bid on first half under 23, but the official play here for me, full game under 44 and a half. Cris, what are you looking for in this big NFCS rivalry?

Las Vegas Cris:

You know that team total at Scott likes, that scares me a little bit. It just seems like Dallas is still sputtering a little bit and neither one of these teams are playing while they’re… Dallas I have rated 24th over the last five weeks and the Giants 29th, which are basically similar falls from where they were. And it’s another divisional game, it’s in New York. I don’t know, a lot of those times it just seems like they just play out, like they aren’t shootouts so to speak. Last year’s game went under. A couple years ago it went over.

Scott Kellen:

Cris, you were playing quarterback for Dallas last year when they played there at the Giants, right? There was no Dak in that game.

Las Vegas Cris:

Yeah. But he’s got problems too. So, there’s obviously something wrong with his fundamentals. He’s injured in some way, because he’s just missing a lot of things that he shouldn’t be missing. And he seems to be good for at least one bad turnover a game. So, I don’t know, I’m not going to have any action on the game. It just makes me a little bit nervous, because Dallas just doesn’t have that same firepower that they had before. And somehow there just seems to be openness for ineptitude somehow.

Las Vegas Cris:

Just the way Dallas just folded like a paper napkin in the second half last week, that can carry over to the following game sometimes.

Scott Kellen:

I’ll say this. I think you make good points there, but I’m looking here, have we gotten to the point where we expect so much out of Dallas that the fact that they’ve scored 43, 33, 27 and 27 and four their last five games. Now I know they get there sometimes with defensive help and whatnot, but to your point, Matt, they got three rushers there that are probably going to potentially create a lot of issues for Mike Glennon and give Dallas a short field or whatever, right? So, I think there’s some things that can come their way just from that, even if they’re not hitting at all cylinders offensively. So, just added points.

Las Vegas Cris:

Yeah. It can. My radar just went off on it.

Scott Kellen:

Yeah. They’ve been struggling. You’re right. They do not look like they looked like early in the season. I think you’re 100% correct.

Matt Landes:

I think, Scott, you and I can pull for something like 44 nothing Cowboys, everybody goes home happy. These last couple games, some pretty sizable favorites, but moving onto Tennessee-Pittsburgh next on the board. There’s no favorite. This one’s at pick’em right now, total at 43. And Cris, it sounds like you do think we should have one team in the clear favorite role here. Who do you think that is?

Las Vegas Cris:

Well, I’ve got to hold my nose and pivot and actually yet take the overrated Tennessee Titans here. I know that offensively they’re really challenged right now. And I mean their yards per play, I think have been a yard and a half below the league average. So, something’s got to give, that’s got to change. They just can’t be picking their nose all week and not making adjustments. I’ve got Pittsburgh number 28th in the league over the last five weeks and 31st in defense somehow over the last five weeks.

Las Vegas Cris:

So, that’s a serious issue. I know Pittsburgh’s a little bit healthier than they were a couple weeks ago, which is going to help them. And obviously it’s at home, but I don’t have to give any points. I have Tennessee the higher rated team by I think quite a bit actually. So, I just have to go with the metrics on this. I’m not a fan of Tennessee in general. I just think it’s off.

Matt Landes:

Yeah. I feel like sometimes those hesitant metrics plays are your best bets that we’ve seen over the course of this season. And I’m kind of hoping you’re right here and we see some Titans money hit the marketplace, because I would like to make my bet on this game, once again, become available to anybody who would like to get in play on it. I’ve teased Pittsburgh up to plus seven and a half.

Matt Landes:

That was a pick we featured on the Tuesday show. And that rounds out the teaser paired with Miami minus two and a half. In this case, I like the opportunity to get Pittsburgh as a team with extra rest here, coming off of the Thursday night game last week. Going against Tennessee, Cris, you touched on some of their yards per play inaptitude. I mean 3.8 yards per play last week against Jacksonville left a lot to be desired.

Matt Landes:

And they’re still not going to be quite back to full strength yet this Sunday. I think in a game like this when you can tease an underdog up through a touchdown where there’s such a low total, that implies reduced variance, usually quite favorable for teasers. So, if there are some betters following Cris and backing the Titans at pick’em, or if we see a bit of a point spread here, if the Steelers come up to plus one and a half again, taking them up through the three and seven in a teaser, my plan to attack this game. And Scott, you’re not looking at the side so much as you are the total in this one.

Scott Kellen:

Yeah, I’m looking at the under. And I did play this on a teaser earlier in the week when a line was more favorable. And I would even argue on this one, Matt, even if Pittsburgh becomes a favor of one and a half for some reason, because I think we’re going to get Joe Haden back. T. J. Watt looks like he’s going to play. I would tease Tennessee up as well. I think you could go either way on this teaser.

Scott Kellen:

We’ve got a low total and kind of to where Cris is playing the metrics with Tennessee, I make Pittsburgh a one point favorite. So, we differ there, but obviously nothing to play there. But I make the total about 38, 38 and a half. So, I’m playing it just on principle there. Pittsburgh’s defense hasn’t been great, but they’ve had a lot of injuries. Now one thing you got to be careful of, Haden’s been hurt. I think he’s coming back.

Scott Kellen:

18. J. Watt leaves last week with a groin. I mean these guys could blow a tire halfway through the game and that could create problems too, because we know they’re not 100% healthy. But with Haden and Watt and Fitzpatrick who had missed that Charger game, when those guys have been in there, the defense has been okay. They grind it out. Tennessee does not win by margin. Just looking here since the beginning of last year, they’re two and five against their spreads as the road favorite with their only wins by more than three points versus Jacksonville, which they won by 21 and by 18.

Scott Kellen:

So, they don’t figure to win by a large margin in a low total game. Part of the reason I like it from a teaser standpoint, I don’t think I’d be comfortable taking Pittsburgh at a pick’em, or plus a point or something. And Pittsburgh here, six-0 and one against the spread as a home dog since 18. Their only loss, straight up loss, was by three points, which was a push against the spread to Baltimore.

Scott Kellen:

So, they’ve been very competitive. Tomlin’s been pretty good as a dog as a whole, a little bit healthier here. And Tennessee’s been running the ball a lot lately. So, they’re going to grind this clock. We know Pittsburgh kind of likes to do that anyway. Tennessee maybe gets Bud to pre-back. Last week they got a lot more defensive guys back. So, I think their defense has been pretty decent here. So, I think that all leads to possibly a lower scoring game.

Scott Kellen:

It’s not a super high total, but again, I’m still showing value on the under. So, I’ll play the under. And I think either of these teams, if you can get it six point teaser above seven, at plus seven and a half, are worth teasing as well.

Las Vegas Cris:

Yeah, and if you like Tennessee, I think Pittsburgh’s going to be the favorite by game day. I don’t know what you guys think, but I think Pittsburgh’s getting the support being that home team and getting healthier and in Tennessee with that perception that their offense is just sputtering.

Matt Landes:

Yeah, that sounds about right. I don’t know how much farther this line’s going to move after the Steelers have seen a good bit of support so far this week. But seeing them go off as a short favorite wouldn’t be too big of a surprise. My read on things at this point though is that if we see some totals going under, that could make for quite the nice day for Scott, because we’ve got another under in play on the next game on the board here, Arizona traveling to Detroit. Cardinals, laying 13 at even money, total 47 and a half. And Scott, let us know why you don’t think we see this game hit that total?

Scott Kellen:

Well, we know it’s a little bit of a gamble, because you’re playing with Detroit. You never know what you’re going to get it with Detroit. Obviously Arizona’s a huge favorite there. They could completely pummel this team and kind of like San Francisco did back in week one, but that thing ends up 41-33, because Detroit gets a bunch of garbage stuff at the end. So, there’s always that concern.

Scott Kellen:

I make the total about 44. So, I think we got some value in the under. We know DeAndre Hopkins is out, and again, he’s been banged up recently, but that’s obviously a big player out for them. James Conner, I don’t know if he’s going to play or not. He had the MRI. I’m not sure. They probably get Chase Edmonds back so they can fill that role. But for Detroit, they’re losing their tight end now. T.J. Hockenson’s out for the rest of the year.

Scott Kellen:

That’s a big offensive weapon as well. And I think this Arizona defense is pretty decent. They’ve got a couple injuries we need to monitor in their secondary and whatnot. But I like this Arizona defense. They’ve got some pass rushers and secondary’s okay. And Kingsbury here, he’s been 4-101 to the under, as a road favorite since he got there, or maybe beginning of last year, I’d have to go back. I’m not sure what timeframe that is, but he’s been an under player or under coach when he’s been favored on the road.

Scott Kellen:

Combine that with Detroit losing their best offensive player really, and my number is just showing a little bit of value to the under. I do have value with Arizona as well, I actually show a fair amount of value on Arizona. I’m not laying it on the road, but I’ll play the under and just hope that they don’t win this thing 43 to 10 or something, where it goes over.

Matt Landes:

Yeah. And you might be onto something with this total. I’m seeing some books now look to be as low as 47 shaded toward the under, but 47 and half still are widely available enough. Is there a floor at which you cut off the buy point for the under here?

Scott Kellen:

While I make the number 44, 47 would be nice. Once it gets below for 47, there’s nothing key there until you get down to 45. So, definitely 45 and a half or more, but I’d really prefer 47. That’s a pretty key number, and I’d want to keep it at 47 and higher probably.

Matt Landes:

Yeah, just a lean to the under for me, as well as a lean to the Lions. The Cardinals in a pretty tough spot situation on a short week off the Monday nighter with an early kickoff on the road, traveling multiple time zones. And I’m really starting to sense a difference for this team between getting some players back in the lineup, versus getting them back to full strength.

Matt Landes:

I mean we’ve seen Hopkins came back for a couple weeks and now, unfortunately, they’re going to be without him for the rest of this season. And Kyler Murray, I mean he’s playing again, but he doesn’t look the same as he did early in the season when I watch him play. A couple of very costly and I think pretty uncharacteristic interceptions on Monday night against the Rams. Also saw him get chased down from behind against the Rams defensive linemen.

Matt Landes:

Don’t want to read too much into it, but I feel like if he’s at full strength, that probably doesn’t happen. And not just the interceptions, but even a pretty wide open sideline throw he had where he led his receiver out of bounds. So, something just not quite clicking with Arizona’s offense has me looking Detroit’s way here. But with this being the Lions, not quite eager to go ahead and pull the trigger and invest my own money in it. So, couple leans for me at this stage. Cris, how about you and your Lions this weekend?

Las Vegas Cris:

Good news for you, Scott, the Giants just had a safety and a corner test positive for COVID. So, you might get a little help for your Dallas team total over. And the Lions basically just said they’re highly unlikely to get players back sooner under this new COVID protocol. So, they’ve got their own COVID issues. You’ve already spoken about Hopkins and some of the other issues going on. It just seems like the type of game where Arizona just wants to get in and get out.

Las Vegas Cris:

And it just makes logical sense to, “Hey, let’s just get in, get out and make things vanilla and get through this.” And some how, some way maybe the game ends up staying closer like the San Francisco game, the Baltimore game that the Lions played against better teams, because the Lions do put in a full effort.

Las Vegas Cris:

But I can’t play this game. Although I didn’t realize the total was, I hadn’t looked at the total before, 47 and a half does seem high. I’m going to have to take a look at that myself. But as far as an official play, nothing at this time.

Matt Landes:

Yeah, same here. We might all be aligned with Scott in that under come kickoff. But for now, just Scott on the under 47 and a half, and that will take us to the end of the early window on Sunday. We’ll call a quick time out to remind our YouTube audience, give this video a quick thumbs up, jump in that chat, and we’ll keep it rolling moving on to the late window on Sunday. First game up in that late window, Atlanta at San Francisco. 49ers laying 10 at plus 105 at BetUS, total 46 and a half. And Cris, even though the Niners laying double digits, might not be quite enough in your book.

Las Vegas Cris:

Yeah. I mean if you shop line shopping, you’re going to be able to find a nine here pretty easily. But for purposes of the show, we have a 10 here, which I’ll go ahead and lay it. Actually 10 plus 105 isn’t bad anyway as far as value goes. But San Francisco’s been really strong. They had that bad game in Seattle, but they still are top 10 team over the last five weeks. They’ve gotten healthier.

Las Vegas Cris:

And Atlanta is still just wallowing. I’ve heard based on the number of points Atlanta scored, they had no business having as many wins as they have, and their defense is still garbage, they’re a little thin on offense. And I think they’re going to run into a buzz saw. San Francisco traditionally doesn’t blow out teams at home, which is a little bit of a concern for me, but I just have these two teams miles apart at this point. And I’ve got to just go with the San Francisco team here.

Matt Landes:

Yeah. You mentioned a lot of nines being available, and if we see a clear, even a one point favorite emerge in that Titans-Steelers game, this is a case where I couldn’t fault anybody for looking perhaps at a six and a half point teaser up to minus 130, as long as they would be crossing through the three and the seven with both San Francisco and whoever the short underdog may be, and Titan Steelers.

Matt Landes:

But beyond that at this stage, at this number, Niners a little bit of plus juice on the minus 10 seems about right to me. Nothing else to add to this matchup, except for the fact that George Kittle is becoming my heart eyes emoji kind of player. He just does everything right. It seems like he makes miraculous catches, he’s a beast after the catch blocking in the run game. Just everything he does when the Niners have him on the field, it’s kind of a night and day difference with that offense. So, excited to watch him suit up once again this Sunday. Scott, what are you looking for in this matchup between the Falcons and 49ers?

Scott Kellen:

Well, I don’t have the guts to take Atlanta, but I am showing value on Atlanta. Having said that though, I’ve got Atlanta at number 30 offense against San Francisco, the number four defense. Got San Francisco as my number 12 offense versus Atlanta, number 30 defense. That doesn’t add up to taking Atlanta, yet there’s some value there. But again, I don’t have the guts to do it, to pull the trigger on that.

Scott Kellen:

Dante Fowler, Erik Harris, the safety, and Dante Fowler, linebacker, edge rusher, they’re injured. We’ll see. I mean if they lose both those guys, that doesn’t help a defense, to Cris’s point, that’s not great already. Shanahan, like Cris says, he doesn’t have a history here. 415 and one against the spread as a home favorite with San Fran. 05-1 as a home favorite of seven or more. They don’t win these games by margin. I mentioned last [crosstalk 00:42:03].

Scott Kellen:

Yeah. That very well could be, right? And for Atlanta, I mentioned last week, it was in teaser at Carolina against bad offenses. They have hung tight the last three years or so. This year they’ve been blown out by the best teams they’ve faced. San Francisco’s kind of quirky. They’re kind of in between there, leaning towards a better side, obviously. So, that scares me a little bit as well.

Scott Kellen:

And I don’t know who San Francisco’s beat by margin this year. Chicago by 11, Jacksonville by 20, Detroit by eight. I think Atlanta’s probably better than those teams. They did beat the Rams by 21. Got to give them credit there. So, I’ve got value in Atlanta. I’m not playing Atlanta. I can’t play San Fran, but like I showed in those defensive numbers, San Francisco’s superior to Atlanta, based on the rankings. So, no play for me.

Matt Landes:

Yeah. It’s going to be tough to come up with much of a play in the next game on the board as well. But it’s a really intriguing matchup, looking at that AFC playoff picture. Cincinnati traveling to Denver where the Broncos are laying a flat three at this point, total 44. And Scott, part of the reason Denver up to a three point favorite may have to do with some injury and COVID concerns coming out of Cincinnati.

Scott Kellen:

Yeah. So, they’re without the right tackle, Riley Reiff, who was injured. And then I think he went on the COVID list as well. Kind of the double whammy for him. Isaiah Prince, who was going to be his backup, I think he’s injured. I don’t think he’s on COVID, I don’t believe, but he’s very questionable to play. So, they could be going down even further on the depth chart there.

Scott Kellen:

Chidobe Awuzie, who’s a very good quarterback for them, he’s got COVID. And again, remember with these new protocols, some of these guys could come back. So, we need to pay attention to that. And then their edge rusher who came over from the Saints from last year, Trey Hendrickson, he’s been banged up. I don’t think he’s practiced at all this week. He’s probably worth about a point. He’s a very vital part of their defense as well.

Scott Kellen:

So, all that has me a little bit concerned here. I’m not recommending this necessarily, but I actually did play this over earlier in the week, over 43 and a half, which I thought was a good number, because I’ve got this total higher. But I was kind of looking back this morning when Burrow has played against defenses that are similar to Denver’s rankings this year, this is going back to the beginning of last year of course, Cincinnati has scored three, 10, and nine points. So, they’re not producing points against these better defenses.

Scott Kellen:

And Denver, along with Fangio really has the capability to provide some difficulties for Burrow, especially if that offensive line is banged up. So, we know Denver destroys the bad teams. Cincinnati’s not a bad team, they’re probably a so-so team. I also played Cincinnati in a teaser earlier this week as well. I’m still okay with that. I make this line about one and a half, but no official play for me on this.

Matt Landes:

Yeah, I teased Cincinnati at the start of the week as well, and not feeling as good about it at this stage is you are, Scott. I know it’s never great to tease an underdog and see them bump up to three. The plus three is better than a teaser leg where you’re contingent on a different game breaking your way as well. And I just can’t figure out how this game is getting so much Denver support. Cris, I know you touched on the line movement being off on that one. It’s to the point where I must be missing something, because I was happy to tease the Bengals early in the week.

Matt Landes:

And I thought, for show purposes, that this one ticked up to three. I’d probably just go ahead and lock in a play on the Bengals at that number as well. I’ve heard professional better, Rob Pizzola, mention that for this number to be right, Denver either has to be the clear better team, or there is a matchup they can really exploit to take advantage of the Bengals. I’m not seeing it, but I also understand that the way the market is backing Denver, I might just be missing something. Cris, do you have any idea what I might be missing if I can’t understand why this line is getting to a solid three for Denver?

Las Vegas Cris:

I have this line pretty much dead on. So, I’m going to just sit on the sidelines on this. I just noticed Cincinnati’s already over their team total for the year. So, that was quite an accomplishment early on, but I can see why the balloon is deflating with the Bengals, especially after the last few weeks how they performed. So, I think people are just expecting them to fold at this point.

Las Vegas Cris:

Going all the way out to Denver and the elevation and with the issues Scott referenced, it doesn’t bode well, so to speak. I don’t have a lot of confidence in Denver either. So, over the last five weeks I have one of them at 14, one of them at 15. So, the line seems okay. I mean I’m surprised it hit that three. If you pulled my arm, I’d take the Bengals here, but definitely sitting this one out.

Scott Kellen:

By the way, I think it might be partly moving. I think there’s potential that there could be some players sick for Cincinnati, whether that’s just being sick or turns into COVID. So, I think people are anticipating some of that stuff maybe coming out today, so that might be part of the reason for the move as well.

Las Vegas Cris:

Right.

Matt Landes:

Got it. Yeah, it seems like this week one of the recurring themes is almost like cockroaches, where there’s one, there may be many more when it comes to COVID cases. So, maybe a bit of a preemptive move by the market on that front. Cris, you touched on this also being a spot where maybe people are expecting the Bengals to fold. And I think that ties in pretty nicely with our next game, because a couple weeks ago, the Seahawks were that team that everybody thought was going to fold, but they’ve kind of done the opposite of that the past couple weeks. This week, they’re taking on the Rams in a big NFC West matchup. Unfortunately this one currently off the board due to a slew of COVID issues for the Rams. So, not too much we can do with it from a betting online standpoint at the moment. But Cris, what are you anticipating in this big NFC West matchup on Sunday?

Las Vegas Cris:

Not much. I think there’s over 20 Rams players on the COVID list at this point. So, you can’t handicap situations like this. One thing that I find noteworthy is the Rams have had two great games in a row. And over the last five weeks, even with those two great games, they’ve been just average. So, let’s see if they can keep it up. It really shocked me to see how well Stafford played last week. He can’t keep that up.

Las Vegas Cris:

I just know from experience, he’ll blow up at some point. The way he was threading needles and making the right decisions, unbelievable. It has to be the best game I’ve seen that guy play. And obviously I’m on the other side, so I was crying the blues. But I can’t believe in the Seattle team they’ve got their own COVID issues, two key guys went on the COVID list yesterday, Lockhart and someone else, right?

Scott Kellen:

Yeah. Collins, the running back.

Las Vegas Cris:

Yeah. So, forget it. Just sit it out.

Matt Landes:

Yeah. I guess calling back our Tuesday show, this might be Cris’s Calgon take me away game on the Sunday slate. And I would be in that same boat. We know the Rams well documented COVID issues. And with Seattle, maybe they’re in a bit of a groove after what they’ve shown the past couple weeks. I also think it might just be a case of Plinko breaking in their favor, that was a wild game against the 49ers that could have gone either way and then a bit of a walkthrough against the Texans last week. So, was curious to see them how the real legitimate step up in class, but not sure the Rams are going to be in a spot to give them that come Sunday. Scott, it seems though that the Rams aren’t in line to be the only shorthanded team in this matchup.

Scott Kellen:

Yeah. We got to pay attention to Seattle here. Like Cris said, Tyler Lockett, great receiver. And then Metcalf has been out. Now, he hasn’t practiced a lot in previous weeks, so he may still play. But as of right now, as we speak, top four wide receivers for Seattle, not practicing. Of course, Lockett possibly going to be out because of COVID. Pro Bowl safety, Quandre Diggs, not practicing. Edge rusher, Carlos Dunlap. Offensive line, Gabe Jackson, Brandon Shell, not practicing.

Scott Kellen:

I mean, they could be down a host of guys as well. So, I talked at the beginning here. This is game number two, actually game number three. We got Cleveland. We got Washington. Now we get to Seattle where we just have so many COVID issues that you can’t try to make sense of Xs and Os, at least in my mind. Based on what we know right now, and it could get worse, I’d favor the Rams by about four points. So, no play for me. And again, for me it’s very hard to play this not knowing all these question marks.

Matt Landes:

Yeah. Scott, I see on our show sheet you do make this total a touch north of 50 points. And wondering, with a bunch of games off the board, if we can’t still provide the audience a bit of value from a betting perspective. Where this game is on the board, or where it was on the board, latest totals I’m seeing more in the 45 and a half range. That’s a pretty decent delta. If this reopens in that mid forties range, would you be giving a look to the over here?

Scott Kellen:

I don’t think so. My numbers on the totals for Seattle here over the last few weeks have been a little bit higher. Some of this is kind of based on some prior stuff as well, that’s still accounting for it. So, just knowing that those numbers have not really translated to Seattle games as a whole would probably be enough to keep me off that. And obviously, if Metcalf doesn’t play, for some reason, you got the offensive lineman down, of course the total would probably come down based off that anyway. But I don’t think so, Matt, just because I haven’t been able to really trust the totals for Seattle, for me, over the last few weeks.

Matt Landes:

Got it. Well, what’s one more game off the board you guys. Green Bay at Baltimore. Again, no numbers we can really break down from a side money line or total standpoint right now. But Scott, you’re looking at the Packers team total. What do you make of it? And if this game reopens, even a little bit higher, tell us the number you’re currently locked in on with Green Bay and just how high you would go giving a look to their team total over?

Scott Kellen:

Yeah, I like the team total over. Now, as a line earlier this morning, it probably would’ve come in about 24 and a half. The sportsbooks linescrept up for Green Bay here a little bit, between this morning and now. But I think anything 26 and a half or below, 24 and a half to 26 and a half, there’s not a lot that ends in between those numbers. So, I think that’s okay.

Scott Kellen:

The Ravens now just put safety, Chuck Clark. He is out. I can’t remember if he’s out or if it’s COVID, but he’s out. So, they are now missing all four of their starters from the beginning of the year in the secondary. We know they’ve had other injuries back there as well. And the Ravens, when they’ve played above average offenses this year, they’ve allowed 35, 25, 6 was with the Chargers came there, 41, 31. They’re giving up about 27 and a half points, a median of about 31 to these better offenses they’re playing, and Green Bay is hitting on all cylinders offensively. I don’t think we’re going to get Bakhtiari back this week, but Billy Turner, the right tackle, went out last game. Dennis Kelly comes in. They really almost don’t miss a beat and they got Aaron Rogers. He’s kind of protecting that offensive line a little bit.

Scott Kellen:

And the Ravens defense isn’t really, pulls in a huge threat here. So Green Bay’s going to get their points in my mind in this game. I make the number right now about six and a half, that’s assuming Jackson doesn’t play. I don’t think he practiced again today. Not as comfortable, maybe laying the points, but I think anything over, team total over something less than 27, it still has value here with Green Bay.

Matt Landes:

Yeah, I’ll keep it short and sweet and then kick it over to Cris. Just too many question marks for me to have much of a take on this one. Again, with Lamar and then the Raven secondary. Also both sides of the ball for Green Bay, not knowing just how healthy Rogers is going to and defensive tackle, Kenny Clark, likely missing. I think he’s a big difference maker for them. So, just too many question marks for me here. I get why this game’s off the board at the moment, but Cris, what do you have to say about an otherwise pretty appealing matchup? Hopefully we can get some big names to play because Packers/Ravens could otherwise be a pretty entertaining watch on Sunday afternoon.

Las Vegas Cris:

Well, we touched on it last night in your Hops & Props Podcast yesterday, where sometimes you get a little bit of an overreaction and I’m kind of looking to get involved with Baltimore if this goes too high. For the places that do have it, you can get a seven. So, I’m going to seriously consider taking the seven, and you might even see more than seven, once Jackson’s announced out. I just think it’s just too many points and Green Bay’s defense is nothing to jump up and down about. They’ve been giving up points and Baltimore is I think, we already referenced, is a great home underdog. So, no play yet. I’m going to just have to see how many players are actually able to show up, and see the lay of the land. But if that gets north of a touchdown, I’ll definitely be involved.

Matt Landes:

Yeah. Cris, you touched on a piece of our conversation from Props & Hops. I can’t thank you enough for hopping on on short notice. And one game we touched on there, as well as on our Tuesday show here, would be the Sunday nighter, the Saints traveling to Tampa Bay, where the Bucks currently laying 11, total 46 and a half. Cris, you talked about liking the Saints plus 11 on Tuesday. That still the case today? Why don’t you go ahead and break it down for us?

Las Vegas Cris:

Yeah. You know, it’s really bizarre, but Tampa Bay is number 26 on my list of lost value over the last five weeks. It’s hard to really process that, it seems like they’re on a roll, doesn’t it? So, there’s a lot of things that they’re not doing as well as we think they’re doing.

Las Vegas Cris:

So, obviously New Orleans isn’t doing that great either. So, they’re mired at 29 themselves. But 11 points in a divisional rivalry like this, against New Orleans? Let’s not forget, New Orleans swept them last year in the regular season, and they won the first game this season, and they weren’t exactly the healthiest team in the world in that first meeting. So, they did lose to Tampa in the playoffs, but they put a crippled quarterback instead of a healthy quarterback. So, they get an excuse on that a little bit. But I think that 11 points is just too much for these teams. And Tampa Bay has no reason to win by margin. New Orleans just traditionally plays well in this situation. And I just have to take the points here.

Matt Landes:

One thing you said near the top of your break, now that I find very curious, the Bucks number 26 according to your metrics over the last five weeks, is there anything you’re spotting that the rest of us might be missing that could have them that low? I think most people would have them substantially higher.

Las Vegas Cris:

Well, you have to remember that’s from where they were five weeks ago. So, they’re not playing 26th overall. It’s the value they’ve lost from where they were. So, if they were rated very highly, and they had this metric value, you know, they’ve lost. Only five teams have lost more value over that period of time. So, it doesn’t spell impending disaster. They are still very highly rated. But there is a little bit of cracks there.

Matt Landes:

Got it. Yeah. Well, your breakdown and some other people I highly respect also, on the Saints plus 11, that’s enough to sell me here. I’m going to join you on New Orleans catching the 11 points. I feel like this one probably closes maybe at 10, so we could be getting a bit of value there.

Matt Landes:

And Cris, you touched on it from a matchup standpoint, New Orleans against Tampa Bay with Brady, three and one, three and oh, or excuse me, two and oh, in the regular season, right? Last year, plus the win in the first matchup this season. I don’t know why that is, but there may be something to it and I want to respect that. I also think that if the Bucks didn’t score that touchdown in over time last week against Buffalo, you know that scoreboard result, and that late kind of lucky cover, the way that broke, this game might not be as high as it is right now. The Saint’s also getting a boost offensively with Alvin Kamara returning. And Scott, it looks like they’re in line for a nice boost on the other side of the ball as well.

Scott Kellen:

Yeah, I think we’ll get Cameron Jordan back. He’s been on COVID for a while. So, I’m assuming he comes back on the defensive line, that’s big for them. And then Chauncey, Gardner Johnson, cornerback/safety, wherever they want to play him, I think he’s coming back. He practiced fully yesterday as well. So, they’re going to get some help on defense here. I’m showing value in Tampa, but I don’t want to lay this many points against the Saints. To you guys’ point, it’s a lot of points of lay in a divisional matchup against a Saints team defense that’s pretty good. Now again, they’ve been banged up on defense, but they have allowed 27, 27, 31 to the three best offenses that they’ve played this year.

Scott Kellen:

Tampa’s a team that just seems to get to 27, 28 points. But they haven’t had Antonio Brown for a while now and I do feel they’re missing some explosiveness. They’re also happy to run the ball if they get up by a little bit of a lead and eat clock, which keeps games a little bit closer sometimes as well.

Scott Kellen:

They’ve pretty good as a large favorite since Brady got there, but that’s usually been against some pretty bad teams and it’s hard to put the Saints in that same category. We know offensively maybe they’re going to be challenged here a little bit, but I think you still got to respect the Saints a little bit here. And they’ve been pretty good as a dog over their time as well.

Scott Kellen:

So, value for me. I will say, Jamel Dean out in the secondary. I was just reading here, nobody else is out from an injury standpoint, although I know Antoine Winfield and Jordan Whitehead, weren’t practicing. But I’m assuming that probably means they’re going to play, which is helpful for Tampa Bay. But no play for me. I’ve got value on Tampa, but I’m not really interested in laying the points.

Las Vegas Cris:

Well, I’ve got some breaking news that affects this game. Sean Payton won’t be able to coach the game. He’s been tested positive, and just scrolled on me, and then somebody else… A defensive coordinator will assume the role of head coach. So, that’s a little monkey wrench in things.

Matt Landes:

Yeah. That’s disconcerting. I believe it was week two we saw what the Saints look like without much of a coaching staff. So, hopefully they can hold it together better this time around.

Scott Kellen:

I would say just a couple things of that. Peyton was sick a couple days ago and it wasn’t because of COVID, but now obviously it is COVID. So, kind of just keep that in mind as you hear about other players being sick. And then obviously as we’re seeing now, a couple days later, this can turn into something different.

Scott Kellen:

The good thing, I guess… Well, he’s been sick, so I don’t even know how much he’s been involved the last couple days, I guess. And he is a play caller for them, pretty savvy play caller, so interesting to see how that impacts them if he’s not able to do that.

Las Vegas Cris:

Well, maybe sick because he saw the preview of his movie that’s coming out.

Matt Landes:

Yeah. Who’s playing him again? Kevin James, I believe.

Las Vegas Cris:

Yeah, Kevin James is playing him, which I find very odd casting, but I’m just joking. It repulsed me at first, but it seems like it’s going to be like a lot of tongue in cheek type of cute stuff, with kids involved. So, maybe it’ll be good after all.

Matt Landes:

Yeah. Yeah. That sounds a little more on brand for Kevin, James. Not so sure about Sean Payton, but we’ll see, we’re keeping an eye on and hopefully Peyton can get well soon. But yeah, something certainly to consider with that Saints ticket Cris and I already have in pocket.

Matt Landes:

Moving on to the week 15 finale, Monday Night Football, Minnesota traveling to Chicago, the Vikings have been steamed up to a six point favorite at even money, total 44 and a half. Scott, it seems like some of this may be related, who would’ve thought, to some COVID issues this time affecting the Bears?

Scott Kellen:

Yes, shocker, we got a lot of COVID issues. This is the other game that I think it’s hard to predict. A little bit based on what we know right now, I would probably favor Minnesota by four, but who knows here. Alan Robinson. Right tackle, Larry Borom. Nose tackle, Eddie Goldman. Safety, Eddie Jackson. Cornerback, Artie Burns. All COVID. And then you had just a ton of other Bear starters yesterday who did not practice. Now, remember it’s a Monday night game, so yesterday’s the first day. It’s almost like a Wednesday of a normal Sunday game. So, it’s not uncommon for guys to not practice. So, we may see that get short up here today and tomorrow, but they could be missing a whole bunch of other guys because of that as well. Don’t know if Adam Thielen’s playing. Kendrick’s a linebacker, I think he did not practice or was very limited yesterday. He did play the previous game, against Pittsburgh so we’ll see if there’re any issues there. But just too many question marks for me. No play for me at all right now.

Matt Landes:

Yeah. The Vikings have shown us plenty of times this year that no lead is safe. So, I can’t lay six with them, but I could only lean their way. I like their spot coming to this one off extra rest playing Thursday night against a Bear’s team that played on Sunday night last week. Justin Fields, again Cris, you and I touched on it last week, he adds some variance to the equation. So, that might mean Minnesota can build up a bit of a margin and hold onto it this time around, but I’d rather see it once or twice before I’m going to pay to see it. What are you looking for Cris in this Monday night showdown?

Las Vegas Cris:

Well, you’ll excuse my facial reactions a little while ago. I’ve got these two giant monitors and they were just doing things I’ve never seen before. Everything’s completely messed up here.

Las Vegas Cris:

But I’m really disappointed I missed this line move, because I was getting greedy and hoping that this line would go down, and instead I missed the line and I see that it’s up to six. I don’t have to lay six, but that’s the line for the show. So, everybody likes picks. I still think Minnesota can cover that six, but shop those lines every week.

Las Vegas Cris:

Minnesota’s had the number one gaining offense over the last five weeks. Everything’s working well for them offensively. We know they’ve got their defensive issues, but my first look on this, and I’ll be interested to see what you say Scott, this was going to be the one total I was going to play over. I don’t know what your thoughts are on that, but I was going to get back to that and now with all these COVID things, I’ve got to kind of reprocess to see what’s really left for the Bears. Because the Bears have been scoring some points lately and we know the Vikings defense has an open door policy.

Scott Kellen:

Yeah. Cris, to your point, I make the total right now about 47 and a half. So, pretty high. I made it high last week in that Green Bay game. I think on here I maybe even kind of said I leaned over, ended up playing Green Bay over the team total points last week, but obviously the over got there just alone in the second quarter in that game last Sunday night. And that was partly predicated because I felt Green Bay would do their part offensively and get the 28, 30 points, somewhere in that neighborhood. You could make the same argument for Minnesota here as well.

Scott Kellen:

The only other caveat I’d make on that, is this has been a horrible place for Minnesota to play. I’m just kind of looking, and I know this only because I’ve got good friends who are Viking fans and they pointed this out to me a couple years ago. I’m just doing some quick math here, in the last years, Vikings have won maybe four times here. Did win last year, and they’re probably like four and 13 or something against the spread. They have just struggled in Chicago year after year, a little bit different this year probably because of the COVID stuff, but just a side note. But I agree with you. I’ve got this thing pointed towards a higher total.

Las Vegas Cris:

Yeah. You know, the thing that scares me is the last two games these teams played 19 to 13 and 16 to six, when they played in Chicago. So, I don’t know for some reason those games stick in my head too. So, that was why I didn’t pounce on the over initially.

Scott Kellen:

You know, here’s the other thing to that game last week too Cris, and like you said, I mean they have been scoring more, but man, that game last week, I don’t know how much the offense did for the Bears actually. You know, there was so much special teams and all that stuff. And then, a couple pass plays that broke for 50 yards and whatnot, which obviously could happen again of course. So I’m a little skittish just on that offense, because the Bears points in production last week did not really come a whole lot from their offense, came from a whole lot of issues on Green Bay’s special teams I think too.

Las Vegas Cris:

You know, Minnesota’s gotten eight games in a row giving up 20 points or more. I mean that’s quite a stretch.

Scott Kellen:

You’re right.

Matt Landes:

I think that’ll take us to the end of our week 15 breakdown. But before we get out of here, we’ve got some best bets we can recap, a couple of consensus plays this week.

Matt Landes:

Scott and I both in play on teasers involving the Dolphins. So, if that number comes down, keep an eye out for that.

Matt Landes:

Also, eye to eye, Cris and I would be on the Saints, plus 11, although I’m seeing the market start to light up and move in the Bucks favor with that Sean Payton news. So, we’ll have to see how that market activity plays out over the next couple days.

Matt Landes:

Cris, beyond that, you’ve got quite the array of bets, walk us through your week 15 card, and why don’t you tell us what your favorite bet on the board is right now?

Las Vegas Cris:

My favorite bet of the week, this week is going to be Kansas City. I feel very confident about them.

Matt Landes:

I don’t know, if the Chargers can convert a few fourth downs, that might work in their favor.

Las Vegas Cris:

But going in order, I do like the Pats. I don’t even know what we’re doing with the Bills as an official play. I guess we’ll put it on there at minus 12, at current market. I’ll still take them. The Jets, that’s a metric play. Tennessee is a metric play. San Francisco’s a metric play. Boy, I like them all about the same. I guess, I’m not going to pick one game. I don’t have a best bet. I like them all the same.

Matt Landes:

All right, a week of flat betting for Cris. Nothing necessarily wrong with that. Certainly I would say the teaser with the Dolphins and Steelers would be my favorite bet, but knowing that’s not currently available, I am also on the Cowboys and Giants under 44 and a half and the Saints plus 11.

Matt Landes:

Before we got to Sean Payton news, I was going to say the Saints. That’s just a bit of a curve ball here. I do feel confident in the Cowboys defense and I’m not expecting too much of a bounce after their offense. So, I’ll go ahead and isolate that Cowboys/Giants under 44 and a half. Again, for Scott’s purposes, hopefully the Cowboys can just score most of those points and we can see their team total over and the full game stay under. Scott, why don’t you walk us through your card and your favorite bet on the board.

Scott Kellen:

Yeah. And one that’s not on there and it probably is okay, cause it’s not really readily available, but on Tuesday show, we also added Jacksonville minus three, but obviously that line has moved on us.

Scott Kellen:

I would say, I like the two team totals over here, Dallas over 27 and a half. Dak has historically met this number in at New York against the Giants, and the Giants, against the better offenses, have given up points. And to you guys’ points, that Dallas offense isn’t necessarily on all cylinders, but the defense is now that they’ve got a full army of people that can rush to passer and they can create some mistakes there as well. As we saw last week, which made lead to some cheap points for Dallas as well. And I think Green Bay against a decimated Baltimore defense, that’s not going to face a pretty good offense, will likely pay the price there. And I think getting over 24 and a half to 26 and a half, this number, it will probably become a little bit higher than a 24 and a half. But I think they’re all safe zones to take them on the team total over the points as well.

Matt Landes:

All right. I think that puts a bow on our week 15 breakdown. Thanks to everybody for tuning in. For those of you with us on YouTube, give us a quick thumbs up, subscribe on your way out the door.

Matt Landes:

And a quick programming note, we will be back with two shows next week before Christmas. We’re going to bump our pick show up to Thursday, the 23rd at 3:00 pm Eastern, noon Pacific. We will be back with you at our regular time on Tuesday. And of course that means you can catch us live back here on Tuesday at 5:30 pm Eastern, 2:30 Pacific. That’ll be our early look at week 16. We’ll see you then, right back here at BetUS, where the game begins.