NFL Picks: Week 16 | NFL Odds, NFL Expert Predictions for Sunday & MNF Picks

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Never miss a show. BetUS, where the game begins.

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Week 15 of the NFL had some huge shocks that threw off our game bets online and spread predictions. With Christmas day being in the midst of week 16, no gimme games will be handed out this week. There are a lot of tight favorites and matchups with two back teams, as well as some high numbers for strong favorites, all 32 teams are back in play. And the complete slate of 16 games will hopefully not be rescheduled. So without further ado, here’s our NFL experts’ latest ball predictions in the hopes of some very happy holidays.

Matt Landes:

NFL week 16 coming up. And in case you couldn’t tell by our attire, we’re coming to you a day early ahead of Christmas this week. And Cris, as we record this today on festivus, maybe fitting show to kick it off with the Airing of Grievances, the NFL’s relentless news cycle continuing once again.

Las Vegas Cris:

Well, to fall in line with our talk on your podcast about casino giveaway booze, this is casino giveaway Christmas with the poms. I’m not sure which one is worse, the booze or the shirt or the sweater, but yeah, this is a horrible, horrible week. I can’t keep up with everything that’s going on. I’m getting news faster than it hits Twitter. And you just don’t know what to do with it because there’s so much news going every direction. You don’t know how to account for it all. And it has been very hectic and basically you just have to be in a hurry up and wait mode when it gets to be this chaotic.

Matt Landes:

Yeah. And Scott, I want to hear your thoughts on this too. First off, dig in the hat, loving the holiday spirit. And it’s been tough to get in that holiday spirit with some of this news we’ve seen recently, what do you make of the current landscape on the week 16 betting board?

Scott Kellen:

Well, first of all, Cris, the booze will eventually go away when you drink it. The sweater will last for the rest of your life. So maybe the sweater’s better. Yeah, it’s crazy. I took a 40-minute phone call earlier this morning and then refreshed one of the websites I use. And I’m like, oh my God, here’s like three more COVID issues with fairly significant people. So it’s never ending and you got to keep checking and it almost makes you hesitate to really put any bets in until you get almost close to game time or at least the last round of testing so you know who’s playing and who’s not playing because at any moment’s notice a top quarterback or someone could be gone. And I’m not saying Taysom Hill’s a top quarterback, but that’s a very good example. So their starting quarterback is out, and that could happen all the way up to Sunday morning. So it’s tough to deal with.

Matt Landes:

Yeah, well, in true festivus spirit, it may take some feats of strength to deliver some good winners with the murky landscape we’re dealing with right now. But let’s take a look at our records here to date and see if we can’t build on some good recent momentum. Again, it’s just a crazy, crazy betting landscape right now across pretty much all sports. We’re certainly feeling it with the NFL, but the good news, we’re all in this together. So we’ll do our best to identify some opportunity in the middle of all this chaos. And as we make our way there, to our YouTube audience, thanks for tuning in. Please take a quick moment to give us a thumbs up, subscribe to the channel, and as always feel free to jump in that chat as we hit the week 16 board.

Matt Landes:

And before we get to this weekend’s games, a friend reminder, if you’re looking for breakdowns on tonight’s game, between the 49ers and Titans or the Christmas double header, Browns Packers and Colts Cardinals, we broke those games down on our Tuesday show. So we’ll get right to the early window on Sunday, kicking that off with Tampa Bay Carolina, the Bucks currently laying 10.5 at even money at BetUS, total 43. And Scott, what do you make of this NFC south showdown?

Scott Kellen:

Well, there’s not so much COVID issues here. Carolina had a couple COVID issues this morning, but nothing super significant. More injury on the injury front for Tampa Bay. We’ve got to see what’s happening with Mike Evans, Antonio Brown missed the practice today. But I think he is going to be good to go. They of course lose Fournette. So we’ve got to show up some of that stuff. My numbers really regardless, still favor Tampa Bay in this game. I don’t think I’m making a play on Tampa Bay, but I was looking back and noticed under Matt Rhule as a home dog for Carolina against playoff teams and Tampa Bay is going to be a playoff team here. They’ve lost by 23. That was the Tampa Bay last year, lost by 26 to New Orleans last year and lost by 18 at home this year to New England.

Scott Kellen:

So they have not been real competitive against the better teams when they come in listed as a home dog at home. Obviously the price here is pretty steep. I still show a little value with Tampa, but like I said, in Tampa, in some ways their offense hasn’t been in a great mode here lately. And they’ve got some fairly significant injuries that they’re dealing with on defense with Lavonte David, Antoine Winfield missed last game. He could miss this game as well.

Scott Kellen:

So for all those reasons, I’m not going to make a play, but I still lean towards a Tampa Bay in this game, just based solely on my numbers and how Carolina has reacted to this type of level of competition since Rhule got there last year.

Matt Landes:

You touch on the slew of Tampa Bay injuries. And that takes me back to a point from our division preview. I noted that the Bucks, the two things that could possibly derail them this season, one does age finally catch up with Tom Brady. That’s a clear no, but two, they were the healthiest team in the league last year and does injury regression ever hit them like a brick wall? And I feel like we’re seeing that now, but the Panthers might be in a where that doesn’t matter a whole lot. Cam Newton last week, less than three net yards per pass, less than 50% completions. So I’m not sure the Panther’s going to put up too much resistance on a beleaguered Bucks team. Cris, what are you looking for in this one?

Las Vegas Cris:

I’m going to sit this one out for sure. But a couple comments that I had to make is if Carolina’s been the third worst team over the last five weeks on my charts and Tampa Bay’s in the bottom 10 in loss of value over the last five weeks also, and they’ve slowly dropped to number eight on my top 10 list on metrics. So these additional problems that’s happening with Tampa and the uncertainty, it’s just something to keep an eye on. Unfortunately, I’ve got a Tampa Bay to win the conference bet that I’m very concerned about because there’s a lot of cracks here in pavement, so to speak. But I can’t do anything with this game.

Matt Landes:

Yeah, well, on that note, let’s move right along. Another division showdown, another double digit favorite at a lot of books where this game is currently listed. But when we look at Giants Eagles currently at BetUS off the board and Cris, if we do see this open back in the range where we had previously seen it, any look at the side or total or any thoughts that could put potentially be actionable when the Giants take on the Eagles.

Las Vegas Cris:

Matt, it’s a tough one. It’ll come back up at 9.5 or 10, but that seems like a hell of a lot of points where normally you’re going to jump right in and take the Giants in a divisional game like this. But the Giants are a shell of themselves. They just can’t never show up healthy. I see no value in this whatsoever. Unfortunately, I’d love to offer some great insight on this, but Phil, both of these teams are just playing middle of the road and Philadelphia was rated higher over the previous five weeks. But after the Washington game, they dropped a little bit, showed they were a little bit… coming back to earth, so to speak, but to not waste any more time, I just can’t see any direction I would even consider playing this game.

Matt Landes:

Fair enough. Yeah. Initially I thought with this being the Eagle’s second game in six days, the Giants might be in a better spot, but to your point, they’re beat up and they’re not so fresh and healthy and their own right. I will note that the Eagles dominated Washington on Tuesday. I think we were lucky to get out of that one with a push. So if anything, I would look to lean the Eagles way, but not interested in laying a big number and this kind of matchup, especially because Scott, the Eagle’s offense has been on quite a roll lately, but the last time they were really held in check did come at against this opponent, the New York Giants.

Scott Kellen:

Yeah, Philly, and I saw this stat the other day and I didn’t double check this, but I think they’ve rushed for 175 yards or more in a game. I don’t know, it’s like four or five games in a row. So the offenses on a roll was kind of impressed with Hurts on whatever that was Tuesday night, I guess they’ve scored 27 or more in four of their last five games. And like you said, Matt, the one game they didn’t score, they only scored seven at the Giants, ironically. And I was just looking back here, Philly’s played a fair amount of good teams at home. They’ve only been a home favorite twice this year against the Saints a few weeks ago, they won that game 40 to 29. And then on Tuesday against Washington, winning 27 to 17 and against the worst offenses that they’ve played this year, and the Giants are going to simply… are certainly going to qualify into that bucket.

Scott Kellen:

They’ve allowed 6 to Atlanta, 6 to Detroit and 13 to these Giants in New York a few weeks ago. So I don’t see Philly giving up a whole lot of points here, considering the mess that the Giants are in offensively. They’re going to face a little bit more resistance here from a defensive team, with the Giants than the Washington team that they faced a couple days ago, and then the Jets before that. I actually make this total about 38, I think. So maybe a little bit of value to the under if we’re getting something over 40, but no play for me. A little bit of value to the Giants, but as Cris said, they’re a mess. At the end of the day though, you still have an average team here at 7 and 7 lane, possibly 10 points, which still seems like a lot of points. I would look under if I did anything but no play for me currently.

Matt Landes:

Yeah. Well, let’s move on and keep the double digit favorite train rolling. The Chargers at the Texans, Charger is currently a 10 point road favorite at BetUS, total 46. And Scott, in the Chargers last game, it seems like they left a lot of points on the field, but against this opponent, they might get those points all back and then some.

Scott Kellen:

Yeah, I mean, this is a very good offense for the Chargers. Now we’ve got some COVID issues here. We got to deal with the center, Corey Linsley, Ekeler I think is out. We know Joey Bosa’s out on the defensive side. But Brandon Cook’s also out. It looks like because he’s got COVID with Houston. He’s obviously probably their best offensive weapon, but Houston, when they’ve played good offenses like this, this year, they’ve allowed 40 to Buffalo, 31 twice to Indianapolis, 31 to Arizona, 38 to the Rams, that averages out about 34 points a game. I don’t see any reason why the Chargers can’t get into the 30s in this game if they care. And I think they’re going to care because they’re fighting for the playoffs here. So they should put up plenty of points. I would look at a team total points here. If it comes in at 28.5, so let’s just say anything under 30, I would consider the Chargers on over on their team total, assuming we don’t have any more huge issues offensively with them from a COVID standpoint. So I would look that way possibly.

Scott Kellen:

In Houston, it’s just not been competitive this year as seven plus point home dogs, they’ve lost by 20, 31, 16, 3, and 15. So they haven’t come really closer to an offense that is similar to the Chargers closer than 16 this year. I would lean Chargers way if we don’t get decimated from the COVID standpoint. And I would lean over on the team total as long as it’s under 30 for the Chargers.

Las Vegas Cris:

Yeah, it looks like it’s 27.5 to 28.

Scott Kellen:

That’s a pretty good number then. Yeah.

Matt Landes:

And Scott, you touched on COVID issues for the Chargers, my initial reaction, and maybe this is the fan in me, but if ever if there was a week for a team to get a bit of a COVID outbreak, this is probably the best spot you could pick. If you’re looking the Chargers way here, they do still need to put forth an honest effort and not take things too lightly. But I think of Cris, you, you calling out their special needs teams in recent shows that we’ve done.

Matt Landes:

I found some interesting nuggets actually since their week seven by 24th in EPF. And if we look at the last five weeks, which is a timeframe you often look at to get a read on team’s recent form, 16. So if this offense can just be, excuse me, if this special teams unit can just be average to below average, as opposed to the worst in the league by a mile, there might be some upside there. I’m reminded of a moment in Arrested Development where they celebrate being upgraded from sell to don’t buy. That might be the case for the Chargers of special teams unit these days.

Las Vegas Cris:

That is pretty good. For me on this, I still have Houston rated as the worst team in the league, but they’ve gained the sixth most amount of value over the last five weeks somehow, if you can make any sense out of that. But again, another game I would’ve liked to have been involved in this in a teaser aspect, but the line’s too high on it. And when you get into this no man’s land with the Chargers, especially on the road, Houston’s showing spunk and that’s not something I want to get involved in with a team that’s just unpredictable. The Chargers aren’t a workhorse that throttles teams. They have their missteps also. So I can’t really support the Chargers laying that many points, but I could see them giving them a thrashing. But again, I hate to sound like a broken record this week. I like to put in a lot of plays. I have to pass this one entirely.

Matt Landes:

Well, one team… Oh, go ahead, Scott.

Scott Kellen:

Sorry, Matt. I was just going to add, and I don’t think Brandin Cooks is going to play. So that probably makes this a moot point, but the Chargers defense is not good. And if the Chargers can put up 30 points, you don’t need a whole lot from Houston and maybe some of it just in mop-up duty to get over the total as a whole as well. So might be another way to look at it. I feel a little bit better about a Chargers team total than the total as a whole, but 46. I mean, and I make the number about 46 here, but that might be another way to look at it as well. Davis Mills has actually looked okay at times in recent weeks. So maybe he could do something. And there’s Bosa, remember as well.

Las Vegas Cris:

I have Houston with a better defense than the Chargers.

Scott Kellen:

Oh yeah. Yeah. I agree. I agree.

Matt Landes:

Well, some total opportunities to look at courtesy of Scott in this matchup, and there’s going to be a side courtesy of Cris in our next game, that involving his Detroit Lions taking on the Atlanta Falcons. Falcons currently laying 5.5 total 43. Cris, probably not going to be too much of a surprise for this audience, but let us know who you like in this one.

Las Vegas Cris:

Well, I can’t believe this. They did a recent poll on Campbell’s, the coach’s approval, 99% approval. I’m not sure you’d find another head coach on any team with 99% approval. I thought that that was amazing. So it just goes to show that while they have not had a great season, there’s a euphoria of what’s going to happen down the line. Everybody’s just playing happy. And Goff, since the buy has been one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, and he won several awards for player the week last week. If anybody saw the quick highlights films of the game against Arizona, it was impressive. I don’t know where that guy came from.

Las Vegas Cris:

Unfortunately, they have to wait until five minutes after I bet the darn game to announce that Goff has the COVID. So I already played my hand on this at 4.5 and moved the market down to 3.5. And then they announced Goff is out. And fortunately, they say he has very few symptoms. He said he was feeling fine and he has a chance to play. And I hope that he does play. It looks like Swift is on track to come back and a couple of other players are on track to come back. They’re overall going to be a little healthier, the attitude is great. And the more I think about it, I have the metrics.

Las Vegas Cris:

I had Detroit rated higher than Atlanta before last week. So stretch them out, Atlanta gets blown out, Detroit beats Arizona. I’ve got six or seven teams worse than the Lions believe it or not. They do do some things well. They were shooting themselves in the PA game after game, but they’re not atrocious. And this Atlanta team, it is pretty much so. Even with the backup quarterback, if the backup quarterback plays, I would take Detroit. I have Detroit favored in this game on my metrics with Goff in the lineup and getting points even with the backup to me is a bargain.

Matt Landes:

You’ve mentioned in the past that when you take underdogs against the spread, you’ll often play about 20% on the money line as well. And a case like this, where we have a sizable underdog, and you think it should be the favorite, do you take a little bit more of the money line?

Las Vegas Cris:

I haven’t yet. It’s certainly something I’m look looking at. I wish I could get the slightest tidbit of whether Goff’s going to be in or not, because the line where you can find it is around 5.5, 6 right now. If they announce Goff is out, then that’s going to be a lot of added value, and it might soar over to 7. But if they announce Goff is in, this line was headed to 3 before beforehand, it’s going to go back down to 3.5, 3. So I’d love to get a long money line in now.

Matt Landes:

Yeah. And Cris, if the lines aren’t careful, they might play their way out of the first pick and the draft, I believe they’re already out of that number one slot based on last week’s results with their win and another Jack’s loss.

Las Vegas Cris:

Yeah. But you know what, they want to draft that Michigan guy who got the second most amount of Heisman votes, if I’m not mistaken, but if they had the number two picky, also, I think they’d be interested in the guy from Oregon also. So it’s not like it’s a Trevor Lawrence situation where he’s going to turn the National Football league over immediately, like he has in Jacksonville.

Matt Landes:

Yeah. And Dan Campbell and the Lion’s current players, certainly not in the business of trying to protect next year’s draft positioning. We’ve seen them compete week after week. And I do fully expect that to continue. Of course, as you touched on this one, largely hinges on whether Goff is in or out. As far as things go for the Falcons, I do want to acknowledge they got pretty unlucky last week in my book. They were over three on fourth down, one for five in the red zone compared to four for five in the red zones for the 49ers. That said, I’m just not sure I can see the Falcons getting out to this big of a favorite over anybody in the league, especially a team playing weird to say this, but playing like the Lions out lately definitely has me leaning Detroit’s way at the moment. And Scott, Detroit seems like when they play bad teams, they can hang pretty tight. The Falcons might be a pretty ideal opponent for them.

Scott Kellen:

Yeah. And by the way, Cris, I just want to know, how did it work out the last time Detroit took a quarterback from Oregon?

Las Vegas Cris:

What was his name? Joey Heatherton.

Scott Kellen:

Joey Harrington.

Matt Landes:

Joey Theismann.

Scott Kellen:

Yeah. I was looking today. I was kind of shocked by this. Detroit has only played one team this year below 500 currently. And that just happens to be the Bears who they’ve of course have played twice and they lost by 10 and 2 points to them. So they played a very tough schedule this year. And we know they got a pretty good spread record. Now some of those spread wins, I think were higher spreads, but they’re still roughly 2 and 3 or something against teams with the lower spread. And Atlanta against the worst teams they’ve played this year, yeah, they’ve been okay. They beat the Giants by 3 on the road. They beat the Jets by 7, lose by 6 to Carolina, came back and beat Carolina by 8, shortly after that, beat Jacksonville by 7. So they’re not destroying these bad teams when they play them.

Scott Kellen:

And obviously, they’re an equally bad team. So there’s not a lot of room for air if you are taking Atlanta here to win by a big margin. So I’m not necessarily comfortable there. Against these similar type offenses that Atlanta has played this year, similar to Detroit, they allowed 14 to both the Giants and the Jags and Detroit kind of comes in similar in that realm. So, and David Blough, I think his only game he started were back in 2019. He’s played a few games since then, but didn’t start. He’s averaged about 16 points a game when he’s played. Obviously that was a little bit different offense a couple years ago.

Scott Kellen:

If this total is going to sit at 43 and it’s going to come down, obviously if Goff is announced out, but I would look under in this total. Atlanta’s not doing a whole lot in terms of scoring a whole bunch of points here. And Detroit, like Cris says, they’re a scrappy team. They’ve played pretty well considering all factors. So I think this total might be a little bit high. I’ve got a closer to about 41 and I would look under maybe, especially if Goff’s out and you could stay on top of this and get a 43 before it starts coming down if they announce he’s out.

Las Vegas Cris:

But Detroit’s offense has picked up quite a bit. And it’s just something to keep an eye on. They’re middle of the road with offense.

Scott Kellen:

What do you think they’re going to do if Goff doesn’t play offensively? And I have no idea other than… I know Blough’s not as good obviously. So I’m just curious what you think about a upward trending offense if Goff doesn’t play.

Las Vegas Cris:

You know what, I’m not sure, but when you get these teams in these situations where it’s all hands on deck every week, now all of a sudden, you have a full roster of people that have in-game experience. And over the course of a season, that becomes very valuable. So they have the advanced notice and preparation to prepare without Goff, and you have all the entire team has played and started at some point in time. And now you’re getting back starters. You would think that that would benefit them, even if Goff is not able to play, they’ve got things up their sleeves. I mean, they’re running game was fine without Swift somehow. They lose Hawkinson and their passing’s fine. They’re pulling rabbits out of hat every week.

Scott Kellen:

Yeah. And the offensive line’s pretty well intact right now. So to your point, they can function and operate an offense a little bit. Agree.

Matt Landes:

We’ve got just a lean on the total in this game from Scott and the next game on the board will get to a play on the total from him. And that next game would be a big AFC North showdown. The Ravens at the Bengals, and Cincinnati laying 3, total 45. Scott, what are you looking on that total?

Scott Kellen:

I’m going to look over 45 in the total. I think it’s a fairly low total here. Obviously if Lamar Jackson doesn’t start, that could impact that. Although I thought Huntley looked pretty good last week. I’ll just throw some things out there in case Lamar starts as well, just for notice. He’s 8 and 1 against his spread as a road dog, the only loss is by 5 points. So I’m mentioning that if this number comes back down and I see a little 2.5 here, but if this comes down to 2.5 where you can tease it and Lamar Jackson plays.

Scott Kellen:

I think Baltimore also could be in line from a teaser perspective. Again, I’ll kind of state what I just said there, 8 and 1 against the spread as a road dog with Jackson only lost by 5 points of Kansas city in 2019, they’re 12, 2 and 1 against the spread as a road dog, going back to 2017 with no straight up loss by more than eight points in those 15 games, again, kind of supporting possibly a teaser play here if you can get the 2.5, if the number comes down.

Scott Kellen:

From an over perspective, just looking back in games that Burrows has started at home against teams that finished 500 or above, which Baltimore potentially could do here, or they’re currently 500 or above in looking at this year’s games, they’re 6 and 2 to the over. They’ve totaled 47 or more points in all those games. The two unders were just totals that were 49.5 in 50, and they totaled 47 and 49 in those games. So they’re scoring points here at home with Burrow against good competition.

Scott Kellen:

And as far as both these teams, Cincinnati against the better offenses that they’ve faced this year, they’ve allowed an average of almost 26.5 points a game. Baltimore against the better offenses have allowed 28 points a game. And we know that defense is completely decimated. They might get Calais Campbell back, but Tavon Young got hurt concussion protocol in a secondary to go along with all the other injuries we know about in the secondary. I think Cincinnati can score some points here as well. We don’t have a team total here in Cincinnati. I would maybe consider that, but for show purposes here. And I still think it’s a decent bet, over 45 or anything under that is is a pretty good bet, I think in my opinion.

Matt Landes:

Yeah, I’m leaning with you in that direction right now. Might get in play on the over 45 as well. And as far as the side goes, also, of course, the factor affecting the total, you touched on the quarterback uncertainty for the Ravens. If Huntley goes again, I have to think it’s got to be pretty simple for a defense to adjust into the way the Packers didn’t adjust late last week. I mean, if you just take away his running and cover Mark Andrews, seems like there’s not much else there. So I think even if the Bengals can just do the basics, if it is Huntley, I like their ability to possibly build a bit of a margin in this one.

Matt Landes:

But Scott, you touched on that Ravens defense. I mean, it’s a mass unit right now, and it has me wondering if we all remember when the Ravens backfield was the biggest concern on that team, because it has just trickled down across pretty much the rest of the roster ever since then. And Cris, I’ll kick it over to you to see what you think of this one on the note that Joe burrow recently dropped one of the better backhanded compliments I can recall recently saying the Bengal’s COVID count pretty low, thanks to a lack of nightlife in Cincinnati.

Las Vegas Cris:

That’s true. I think I’m going to file a suit with what benefited me last week. And if Jackson’s out, that line is just going to slide up and probably overreact. And I’m only looking Baltimore’s way in this game. It’s just a matter of whether I’m able to catch it as fast enough when they announce Jackson is in or I wait for the bloated line to appear if it sores over four, that’d be great.

Las Vegas Cris:

So I don’t know how Baltimore does it. They do it with smoke and mirrors every week, but there is… Two-point conversions aside, there are very well coached team and they do a lot of things well, and they don’t just depend on Jackson obviously. And his replacement just playing himself into quite a dilemma on what are they going to do with this guy, because he’s going to be desired around the league because he obviously should be starting someplace. So, that’s where I see the game. I’m Baltimore or bust and it doesn’t matter. It probably doesn’t matter who the quarterback is,

Matt Landes:

If Jackson’s in, what do you make the line? And if Huntley leaves in, what do you make that line?

Las Vegas Cris:

I don’t know where that line will go. I would probably play Baltimore up to pick, I think Baltimore can win the game, if Jackson’s in the lineup. It might not fall that far because I think there’s going to be questions on, well, okay, yeah, he’s back. But he hasn’t played in a while, hasn’t practiced. And they’re only going to give him so much credit. I don’t think the swing on this line is as big as we’ve seen for other games in this situation because the backup seems more than able to manage things. So I was discussing with other people that wondered if it would go up to 5, 5.5, and I think that that would be nuts. I’d be jumping up and down if I saw a 4.5.

Matt Landes:

Yeah. Certainly something worth keeping an eye on in the coming days. And I think something we’ll circle back on at the end of the show, but Cris, you and myself, and of course Scott as well, if we have any plays that we haven’t locked in yet because of all the uncertainty, keep an eye out in the comment section below this video, because we may add anything in and that’s the place where we would do it. So maybe some Ravens bets coming in the comments once we’re done recording this episode, as we get news on who’s under center for Baltimore.

Matt Landes:

Moving on to the next game on the board, the Rams at the Vikings, a big NFC showdown with playoff implications. This one currently off the board at BetUS, but Scott, it seems like worth a total had been and given some of your handicap, maybe a look at a potential over in this one, depending on the number we see when the line reopens.

Scott Kellen:

Yeah, it’s unfortunate Dalvin Cook is going to be out because of COVID, obviously a very good running back, had a massive game, not last week, but two weeks ago against Pittsburgh. But Alexander Mattison now is back. He’s not Dalvin Cook, but he’s still very, very capable on this team. And we’re planning in a perfect environment here. I made the number before this went off to board about 50.5 points. So not a ton of value over 49 points necessarily. But I think just from a profile standpoint, there’s a chance both these teams can score a fair amount of points here.

Scott Kellen:

Since McVay arrived in LOA, his teams have allowed 27 points per game. When playing on the road as favorites against above averages offenses, which we’re going to get here in Minnesota. And that means it’s also, he’s given up 30 points a game this year in that’s same role, road favorite against good offenses.

Scott Kellen:

So teams are scoring on when they go on the road and Minnesota here when they’ve played good offenses this year, they’ve allowed an average of 30 points a game. We’re getting some reinforcement back on the Rams. Of course, I’d love to see Havenstein, the right tackle, come back. I’d love to see Higbee come back a tight end. Currently, I don’t believe either one of those are, but that would only enforce this. But I think there’s a chance in a perfect environment both these teams can score some points, and if this thing opens up 49 or less, which I think it probably will not with Cook out, I think there’s some value on the over.

Scott Kellen:

I’m just going to take a wait and see approach here a little bit just to make sure everything’s okay. But I definitely lean over and we’ll probably be involved in the over as well.

Las Vegas Cris:

It looks like you can get a 48.5 on it quite possibly.

Matt Landes:

And I’m taking a wait and see approach with a side that I like in this one, definitely looking the Vikings way. I did see some news right as we were about to go live that the Rams have designated Cam Akers for return, but I’m not sure that he’s going to be able to play or even make much of an impact in this game. So just something worth keeping in mind for the Rams moving forward.

Matt Landes:

And also with the Rams in this one, their second game in six days. And not only that, but they played late on Tuesday, they’re in the early window on Sunday plus traveling multiple time zones, that could really disrupt their routine. And I know they’re on a pretty decent win streak here, but if we look at the recent form of some of the teams they’ve beaten, the Jags, the Cardinals, the Seahawks, maybe about as underwhelming as a three game win streak could be in the NFL. And the Vikings of course, coming off a win of their own, but it was ugly, probably the ugliest cover we’ll see all season long on national TV for all to see on Monday Night.

Matt Landes:

But I think because everybody saw that the Vikings might be getting some negative recency bias sent their way from a lot of the betting marketplace. And we talked about the Rams routine getting disrupted on the short week with some travel. Well, Kirk Cousins back in his comfort zone, as far as his routine goes, well documented that at 1:00 PM Eastern, for some reason, he’s just a different animal. So if he’s close to 100%, that could make a big difference.

Matt Landes:

Don’t love that Cook’s probably going to be out. I do think that Mattison, as you touched on Scott, probably about as capable of a backup running back as we’ll see. So yes, there’s a dropoff, but I’m not sure if there’s that much of a dropoff involved and it looks like Thielen, and again, could be on track to play. So that could build very well for the Vikings passing game.

Matt Landes:

To wrap it up, this one was sitting at Vikings plus three, and that was going to be unofficial play for me here. I still have it in the sites, but now I’m seeing even some books going to 3.5. So, if that’s just because of Dalvin Cook being out, I get an adjustment against the Vikings, but I’ll take that hook. And if and when it becomes more widely available, something I’ll probably be dropping in the YouTube comments. Cris, what do you-

Las Vegas Cris:

I agree with you, very capable backup for Cook. The only difference that you have is Cook can break the big play. So you lose a little bit of big play type capability. I’m not impressed by what the Rams have been doing. This Arizona team may have some real problems. That’s their key win over the last three wins. They went in, lost three game in a row. They beat up Jacksonville. Who cares. They beat up Arizona a little bit, but the wheels are coming off the bus in Arizona, they’ve lost four out of seven games and they look bad.

Las Vegas Cris:

So that may not be much of a win and they struggled against Seattle. So I’m leaning toward Minnesota on this one. As you mentioned, if we get a 3.5 on this, it’s going to be hard to turn that down. If it sits at 3, I really would need to see what players are in and out. So look for an update in the comment section on some additional plays that might involve this game.

Scott Kellen:

That play would definitely be conditioned on Thielen. I think he’s going to come back. And if this thing goes to 3.5, like you guys said, I will be on Minnesota with no worries at all as well.

Matt Landes:

Some good food for thought. And we are just sitting ready to pounce on the Vikings here if the market does what we’re hoping it will. And on that note, we’ll move on from back to back games, with playoff implications, to a game with implications that really only affect the top of the draft order next year, the Jags at the Jets currently off the board at BetUS. Cris, what are you looking for in this one? Between a couple cellar dwellers, just how glued will you be to your screen and what promises to be a barn burner at MetLife Stadium?

Las Vegas Cris:

Well, I’m trying to contain my excitement and I’ve taken a bunch of Valium. I just cannot wait for this game. Now, but in all seriousness, I was actually looking Jacksonville’s direction. I wish that that line, it was just ready to hit three before the COVID nooses broke out on the Jets. And I would’ve been holding a Jacksonville plus three ticket, but at this number a pick, I can’t be on Jacksonville, frankly. And you know what? I think there needs nothing more to be said by me on this game.

Scott Kellen:

I just want to add, if you wouldn’t have been so busy trying to put in a bet on your beloved lines, you probably could have got the bet in on Jacksonville before the COVID news hit, and then you’d be okay, but whatever.

Matt Landes:

Scott, the Grinch on the Christmas, but I love the healthy pushback on Cris there. And I’ll take the reins for a moment on this one, looking at the Jags team total under 20.5. I like that up to minus 120, or perhaps taking them under 20 at even money. That is pretty widely available at this point, even though the game is off the book, off the board at a few books, including BetUS. We’re seeing pick’em 41.5 where it’s available. And Scott, you said on our Tuesday show, this was one of the rare, clean COVID games. Certainly not the case anymore with the news we’ve gotten from the Jets in just these past 48 hours.

Matt Landes:

For the Jags, I was wondering if we were going to see the so-called dead cat bounce after they got rid of Urban Meyer. And they just were about as listless as ever against Houston this past Sunday. And now with Brian Schottenheimer calling the plays, we know from his tenure in Seattle, pretty run heavy, that could bode well for James Robinson to finally get more of the workload. But to me it doesn’t bode well for their scores and odds of lighting up the scoreboard. So I like the Jag’s team total under. And Scott, I want to hear what you’re expecting from this big showdown between the Jags and Jets.

Scott Kellen:

Yeah. I feel bad for you, Matt. There’s going to be all these great games on Sunday and you’re going to be like dead center in front of your TV watching the Jags and hoping for less than 20.5 points or whatever, but hey, whatever it takes-

Matt Landes:

So waiting for punishment.

Scott Kellen:

I don’t have a whole lot here. I kind of look back. Jets have actually been decent at home against bad teams over the last two, three years. Obviously this is a different version this year, but they’ve been competitive. I don’t want Jacksonville. I’ve been on Jacksonville the last two weeks and that those were mistakes obviously. Certainly don’t want him here getting basically no points at all. And I don’t want the Jets. Jets, 15 people on COVID obviously including their head coach. A lot of those guys really weren’t super important guys. At least up to this point that hasn’t necessarily impacted the team. But I guess when you got a whole bunch of bad players, you lose a few more. It doesn’t really matter, but nothing for me in this game.

Matt Landes:

Well, let’s move on then to, in all seriousness, what probably is the marquee game of the week, the rematch between the Bills and Patriots, maybe a defacto AFC’s title game, New England currently laying 2.5, total 43.5. Scott, what are you looking for in this one?

Scott Kellen:

I’m looking for another team to tease Buffalo with, Matt. That’s what I’m looking for here.

Las Vegas Cris:

Me too.

Scott Kellen:

Yeah. And I don’t know what that’s going to be yet, but I’m hoping I’ll find it. Buffalo. Since Josh Allen got there, they’re 10, 4, and 1 against the spread as road dogs with only two of those 15 games resulting a loss by more than 7. So they’ve been very competitive on the road as dogs, which obviously if we can get them as a teaser, we’d get them at probably 8, 8.5 points here. So to me that says something.

Scott Kellen:

The other interesting thing, just going back to beginning of last year, when Stefon Diggs came and really upped their offense along with obviously Allen getting better. They’re four and over to the over as of road dog, since he joined them, they’ve scored 27 or more in each of those games.

Scott Kellen:

I’m not super confident on taking it over in this game, given New England and whatnot, but New England hasn’t played… Neither one of these teams have played a super tough schedule. And New England against the better offenses that they’ve faced this year, they allowed 19 against Tampa Bay at home, but that was a bad weather game. They allowed 35 at home to Dallas. Allowed 24, I believe that was out at the Chargers. And then 27 last week to Indy. Yeah, maybe it’s 20 points, Allen or Taylor breaks that long run late in the game.

Scott Kellen:

And then Buffalo against the better offenses they faced this year, 20 against Kansas City, 34 to Tennessee, 41 to Indy, 33 to Tampa. And we got a fairly low total here. So there could be some points scored here, but my first option here will be to tease Buffalo. I just need to find a team to tease them with, which I don’t currently have right now.

Matt Landes:

Yeah. And I’m in play on a Bill’s teaser. I’ll get to that in a moment. Scott, to your point about these teams against the better offenses they faced, you touched on Tampa Bay pretty much in a big rainstorm against the Patriots. So that certainly suppressed their scoreboard output. The Chargers did put up 24 on New England, but there was a circus catch for a touchdown in garbage time that otherwise would’ve had the Chargers limited to 17 points in that matchup. And for Buffalo against Kansas city, that was the lightning delay game on Sunday night earlier this year. And that whole second half again, the field was just a mess. So if we’re going to say that New England’s holding Tampa Bay to 19, not necessarily indicative of how good their defense is, might want to say the same about Buffalo, but that said, I am in play again on a Bill’s teaser.

Matt Landes:

We’ll get to the second leg shortly here. And I do think it’s important that Col Beasley won’t be playing. He does matter a little bit. But looking at the other side, the Patriots very shorthanded at wide receiver, and that could help mask the absence of Tre White and the Bills secondary. From a teaser standpoint, I like this being a division rematch with a low total that implies reduced variance, which helps to magnify the value of the points we get and a teaser with the Bills, crossing up through a touchdown with them.

Matt Landes:

And one more thing I just keep an eye on is props become more widely available, pretty much a do or die game. So a lot of quarterbacks who are mobile, more willing to run in these situations. Josh Allen, if we see his rushing yards widely available in the range of 35.5, at least worth considering the over there. And with that, I’ll toss it to Cris for your look at this big AFC’s showdown.

Las Vegas Cris:

Yeah. And you can’t use that term lightly. I’ve never been really much of an AFC fan, frankly, but geez, these matchups we’ve seen with Buffalo and New England and Kansas City, and they’re exciting. I mean, there’s drama. Indianapolis is… I can’t wait to see what happens with these teams. I think people have misperceptions on a bunch of teams, and it’s just going to be very interesting. A lot of people didn’t think the Colts were as good as they are. A lot of people think Buffalo was better than they are. And it’s just interesting, as we mentioned, you got to be ready to pivot. We’ve been on New England almost every week, and right now I’m coming close to a Buffalo play. I definitely wanted to find a Buffalo teaser for the show.

Las Vegas Cris:

The only thing I could come up with was matching it with Green Bay, which I’ve already done one with. And I don’t like to really double up. But I don’t see another team to tease it with. So there’s the problem. I had these teams about the same. I mean, these two teams are mirror images of themselves. And I worry about the loss of Beasley. I worry about what’s going on with New England who got a couple COVID situations. And I worry about the revenge factor. Boy, Buffalo pissed off after that game and they’re going to come full force.

Las Vegas Cris:

I think your only lean here really is taking the points. I’d hope to see plus three. And I don’t think we’re going to see the plus three and I’m not quite sure I’m going to get involved in the Buffalo plus 2, 2.5. I’m going to have to wait for more information to come out.

Matt Landes:

That’ll take us to the end of the early window on Sunday. So we will get ready to move on to the late window. And before we do so, quick time out reminder to the YouTube audience, give us a quick thumbs up, subscribe to the channel. And as we turn the page to that late slate on Sunday, first team on the board, Chicago at Seattle. The Seahawks currently laying 6.5, total 42.5. Cris, a couple teams playing on short weeks, what are you looking for in this one?

Las Vegas Cris:

I want to save time and say, I have no interest in this game. With the Wilson injury situation and the problems going on with Chicago and the short week, this and that. And no judge of motivation whatsoever on either side. I just couldn’t possibly hope to find any value with the way I analyze games, so pastorino.

Matt Landes:

Yeah. Similar here, Seattle again, the even shorter week, even though the Bears played Monday night, Seattle going into its second game in six days, I do think it’s noteworthy. The Bears got a raw deal against the Vikings on Monday night. If we look at variants and some calls that won against them. So maybe not as bad as that scoreboard would indicate, but tough to uncover any value in this matchup. So with that, Scott, I will pass the baton to you.

Scott Kellen:

First of all, I’m waiting to see what we get out of Chicago with Allen Robinson and some of the Marquise Goodwin, some of the receivers and whatnot. I don’t think I’m going to end up having a play in this game, but we noted this in the preseason, Chicago, very bad against the good teams, last year, 7 and 2 straight up versus losing teams. They’re 2 and 0 straight up already this year, I guess that’s Detroit based on what I said before, so 9 and 2. And I’m just looking back, going all the way back to 2016 with this team, which has been a debacle of a team for the most part. I know they’ve made the playoffs a little bit, but they’re 8 and 2 against the spread as road dogs since ‘016, since 2016 against teams who didn’t make the playoffs and finish the season under 500 exactly where Seattle’s going to finish this year. So they’ve been competitive.

Scott Kellen:

Seattle just 3 and 10 against the spread since 2017 as home favorites are more than 6 with only 3 of those games coming with wins by more than 3 points. So Seattle’s not blowing anybody away either. I would maybe consider taking a fly in Chicago if I knew they were somewhat healthy, especially offensively, and I could get 6 or more points. But I don’t know if I will be… certainly won’t be on Seattle. I would look at Chicago or nothing. And right now it’s thing.

Las Vegas Cris:

Yeah, I should amend my previous comments. If somehow that were to go up to seven, then I would be definitely looking for a way to bet the Bears. There’s no way I could bet Seattle, but I don’t think we’re going to see a 7, but if we do, that might happen.

Scott Kellen:

I mean, and that defense on Monday night was per pretty good. You felt bad for that defense. I mean, they just kept tripping over themselves offensively and whatnot. And obviously if that happens again, we’re going to be in a world of hurt if we do get involved with Chicago, but this is a team that’s playing hard competitive, and we’ll see.

Las Vegas Cris:

They have been playing hard over the last five weeks. They’re in the top 10 of effort in point and value gained against the other teams. So you’re 100% right.

Matt Landes:

Possible, but unlikely that we’ll be able to get in play at a valuable number on this one. So we will move on to the next game on the card, an AFC matchup with, again, some playoff implications in that muddled AFC playoff picture. The Steelers at the Chiefs, currently off the board at BetUS. But Scott, we were seeing totals around 45 where the game is available. And I’m guessing at that number, you might be giving the under some strong consideration.

Scott Kellen:

Yeah. I’ve got this… And this is assuming we got Kelce and-

Matt Landes:

Hill and everybody else.

Scott Kellen:

Hill. Yeah, yeah. So because of COVID, we got to see if they can play or not. So, but if we can wake up and we can see 45 and we know Hill and Kelce’s out and total’s probably going to start to plummet from there. So I get it. But I’ve got this thing in about 42.5 right now. We’ve talked about this in the past. It didn’t come to fruition against the Raiders, but did against the Broncos, KC 14 and 5 to the under is 7 point or greater home favorites. This is a little bit different animal here.

Scott Kellen:

And I don’t even know where this line will go if we get Kelce and Hill out, but they’ve allowed 21 or more, and only 5 of those 19 games where they’ve been the big favorites, they’ve allowed 17 or less in 7 of the last 9 games, 5 straight home games with a defense has played pretty well. And they’re going to get a Pittsburgh offense that isn’t very good and Pittsburgh on the road when they play better defenses.

Scott Kellen:

And it sounds kind of funny to say Kansas City’s a better defense, but they have played well at home against these lesser offenses, which Pittsburgh is. What have they scored? They scored 23 against Buffalo. We know they got a punt return for a touchdown. So let’s make that 16. They scored 17 against Green Bay at Green Bay, 15 against Cleveland, 10 against Cincinnati. I don’t see the Steelers scoring a whole lot of points in this game if Kansas City defense comes to play intact. And especially, if they get Chris Jones back. And obviously they’re missing Hill and Kelce. Under 45, I think is actually going to be a decent play in this game.

Matt Landes:

Yeah. I think this is a case where I’ll pivot a bit on the Chiefs defense. I think in recent shows, I’ve mentioned some reasons why maybe they’ve gone from underrated to overrated by the market, but I certainly like their ability to keep the Steelers in check. And to that end, this is the game where I will close out that teaser involving the Bills. I’m seeing fairly widely available the Patriots in the range of 7.5 to 8.5 point favorites, excuse me, the Chiefs in that range. And I was able to get them down to minus 1.5 just before we recorded this show. So that’s a pretty current bet that I’m endorsing here. I think that a big factor, you touched on the COVID concerns with the Chiefs possibly missing Kelce and Hill. That might loom large.

Matt Landes:

But I also think it’s the reason that the spread isn’t as close to double digits as it previously was. And the Steelers having some COVID issues of their own popup a bit later in the week. And I just wonder if it’s a bit of a free roll with the Chiefs having COVID issues show up earlier, if they’re the more likely team to have some key players test out and get back into the game, whereas the Steelers less likely to test out if they’re getting these issues coming up later in the week. So a smaller than usual bet for me, because of this variance with the COVID unknowns. But I do like the Chiefs with the Bills in a teaser. Cris, what are you looking for in this Steelers Chiefs matchup?

Las Vegas Cris:

Well, I know I agree with you there. I would make that same play. That is available at some places, minus 2.5, minus 1.5, depending on where you’re going. So it’s more 1.5. As far as betting online the game straight up, this line’s going to jump or collapse based on these players in the COVID news. So it really is a tough spot to kind of ride the pains. Because if you like the Pittsburgh side, it’s certainly dropping below a touchdown and it could be as low as four. And if you like Kansas City, it’s going to hit 10 again. So it makes it really hard. This is one of the few times where a teaser makes a lot of sense, because at least you’re not going to lose too much value if it goes that direction, and you’re underneath that three still.

Las Vegas Cris:

So like you said, I definitely like that Buffalo plus the 8.5 with the Kansas City as a teaser. So if you got to play on it, I got to play on it, buddy.

Scott Kellen:

Dun, dun, da, da, da, da. We got some breaking news, breaking news.

Matt Landes:

Oh boy.

Scott Kellen:

Chris Jones activated, Charvarius Ward activated. And I also forgot to mention L’Jarius Sneed is going to play in this game as well. So there’s three key defensive players coming back for Kansas City.

Matt Landes:

All right. Let’s lock in that teaser. I almost feel too good about this now. I remember a talking point last week, the more nervous we are, the better we usually do. So maybe I should go back to being as nervous as I was a minute ago before Scott’s breaking news announcement, but can’t help but feeling good about it for the moment. And in a news cycle like this, we’ll take any small wins we can get when the news seems to break our way. Cris, you mentioned liking that teaser, but as well, and another wager for you on the next team we’ll get to, an AFC west matchup pitting the Broncos against the Raiders in Vegas. This one currently at pick’em, total 41.5. Cris, it’s at pick’em, so you’re basically just picking the outright winner. Who do you think walks out of this one with the victory?

Las Vegas Cris:

Well, this is a metric play for me. I had these teams a touchdown part in talent, frankly, this Denver defense is highly underrated quite frankly. I saw a stats someplace out of the corner of my eye, that teams, the following week after playing Denver scoring like over, they’re giving up like an average of 18 or 19 points a game. But those same teams the next week are scoring in the mid 30s for some reason when they get some relief. So Fangio has got that defense working pretty well. I worry, I got some news as we went down the air, doesn’t look like Denver’s going to have their starting center. He was already questionable, but it looks like he’s not going to go. And that worries me a little bit.

Las Vegas Cris:

And we know we’ve got Locke in there as quarterback, but I still just have to go with the team with the better defense here and more to play for. And that’s about it. It’s a metric play for me.

Matt Landes:

Last week, I spent a lot of time wondering what I was missing with some market support for the Broncos. And after watching that game, even before Bridgewater went down, didn’t feel like I was missing a whole lot at the end of the day. And in this case, I’m wondering what reason the market may have to take a strong stance behind either team. So what’s a pass for me. The numbers seem about right. Scott, what do you think of this matchup between the Broncos and Raiders?

Scott Kellen:

Yeah, let’s confirm. Christian Barry is out. He’s on COVID list at center for Denver. I don’t have any play on this game. I kind of like what Cris said though. My numbers basically make this a pick’em, but you got Denver’s a better defense and they’re coming off a loss the last time they played the Raiders. So not that I know that that actually works or not, but I always feel better knowing that they’re maybe going to be a little bit more focused knowing they lost to him before. So they are 0 and 5 against the spread the last 5 times they played the Raiders on the road. But I don’t know that that has anything to do with this game. So no play for me. I make it basically a pick’em.

Scott Kellen:

And Darren Waller is still not practicing. So if they don’t have him and this Bronco defense comes to play, I just don’t see the Raiders scoring a lot of points here so, as long as you can get something out of Locke and he doesn’t make a lot of mistakes, Denver’s probably not a bad play.

Las Vegas Cris:

Yeah. How can this total be over 41?

Scott Kellen:

Yeah, I just don’t. I mean, how many points are the Raiders going to score, especially without Waller. I just don’t see it. Don’t see it.

Las Vegas Cris:

Even with Waller, how many are they going to score. I mean, Cincinnati’s offense is a lot better than the Raiders.

Scott Kellen:

They are. And I was looking at this… Sorry. I was just trying to… Oh, there’s Raiders. I was just trying to find them here. Sorry, bear with me. I mean, they scored or they got 16 points last week, wasn’t very good. They get 9 against Kansas city. They get 15 against Washington. Those are, I think all games without Waller, I believe. 13 against Cincinnati, 14 against Kansas City, 16 against the Giants. They had the one outburst against the Cowboys, which was aided by a lot of past interference calls as well. And they had Waller in that game.

Las Vegas Cris:

All those penalties.

Scott Kellen:

Yeah. I’m with you, Cris. I don’t know how they get really beyond 17 points. Denver hasn’t been scoring a ton of points, but they’re facing a Raider’s defense here, so they should have some options if Locke can just stay out of trouble.

Las Vegas Cris:

Yeah. You know what? I’m adding on the board under 41.5 on this game.

Matt Landes:

Sounds like Cris is going to be dominating the YouTube comments the moment we wrap up this recording. And I will note that I’m glad you guys had that good insight on the total here. If I look to viewers, like I was looking off screen or distracted, I just went ahead and added on to that Chiefs-Bills teaser with a little more confidence after Scott’s breaking news update. So I had said it was a reduced play for me, but just making that a standard unit on that Kansas City-Buffalo teaser this weekend. Nothing I’ll need to add to the YouTube comments because that’s on a graphic, everybody we’ll see in a few minutes.

Matt Landes:

But yeah, was happy to add that wager as we record here. Now, back in it, in the present moment, ready to take us to the home stretch in week 16, moving on to prime time. Sunday night football, the Washington football team at the Cowboys, Dallas currently laying 10.5, total 46.5. Scott, at team total in pocket for you in this matchup.

Scott Kellen:

Yeah, I like Dallas over the team total here. I think it’s going to be about 28.5. For me, Dallas number 8 and pass offense. They’re going to face Washington number 31 in pass defense. And be interesting to see if Landon Collins had got hurt in that last game comes back and Washington also had some COVID issues into secondary. So if they’re losing the Kendall Fuller, if he’s still out, if Collins is out, I don’t think he practiced yesterday. It was a walkthrough practice I think, but he would not have practiced. That’s going to hurt this defense that much more.

Scott Kellen:

And then when I look at it from a pressure standpoint, Dallas number 7 in the league and allowing the fewest pressure sack per percentage. Washington, as good as that defensive line is, I had to look at this a couple times, but they’re number 23 in pressure. So they’re not pressuring quarterbacks.

Scott Kellen:

Tyron Smith might be out yet this week. I don’t think he practiced yesterday, left tackle, obviously key. But Dallas is healthy Otherwise. And I’ve mentioned this many times here, here’s Dallas big favorite. And for Dallas, when Dak has started games at home, 13 of those 17 games at home, that they’ve started, that he started, they’ve scored 31 or more points in. They’ve also gone over the total in 12 of those 17. This is going back to 2019.

Scott Kellen:

The Washington football team as a road dog, more than 4 points. They’re just 1, 4 and 1 against the spread. They typically are getting blown out in those games and they’ve allowed 27 or more in 4 of those 6 games. This secondary is decimated right now for Washington. And we got a pretty healthy team in Dallas. I think they’ll be able to take advantage of this, score some points. And I’ve got them pegged for just over 30 points here. So 28.5 over in the team total, I think is fair amount. I think I’ve got them pegged at 32. I’ll look it up. But I like them over the team total 28.5.

Matt Landes:

Yeah, a lean on a side for me in this one, that lean would be in the direction of Washington, but I’m not pulling the trigger in all likelihood because this another team playing at second road game, excuse me, second game in 6 days. And I think Washington is the only team to have its second road game and that 6-day span. So that’s enough to keep me on the sidelines for now, given that extreme outlier of a situation. I feel like it’s now or never for the Cowboys defense. So Scott, this might be last column, their team totals over if they’re not able to get it home. Although I do feel pretty confident that they’ll be able to do some damage against this Washington defense.

Matt Landes:

And I’m looking at the other defense and this one as well, ready to pivot. I think off of the Cowboys, I like to think I was a bit ahead of the curve when it came to their past rush, getting those three guys all together, Parsons, Gregory and Lawrence showing a lot more promise than their season long stats would indicate. But their secondary is a feast or famine unit.

Matt Landes:

And we’ve seen the Cowboys generate four takeaways each of the last three weeks. I just don’t see how that’s possibly sustainable. The Cowboys are now number one in the league in EPF, off of turnovers. And this time last month, the Colts were number one in EPF of turnovers by a mile. So that tells me a lot about just how much ground the Cowboys have made up. I think they’re running unsustainably hot and that pendulum going to swing the other way sooner rather than later, possibly as soon as this Sunday night. So a lean to the Washington side for me, but that’s about it, Cris, what are you looking for on Sunday night football?

Las Vegas Cris:

Oh, I saw this game last week. They just played different teams and I expect the exact same thing. I’ve got better places to put my money in than trying to decide whether a team’s going to get a backdoor cover late in the game. Dallas has played the… has lost, is down at the bottom over the last five weeks and lost value versus other teams. But I do anticipate them to improve. So I’m giving them some credit that they were underachieving or due for positive regression. But this just seems like the type of game where you’re sweating a back door cover or something along those lines. This one’s on national TV, it’s the night game. So goofy things happened. Put a gun to my head, I’d probably take the Giants, but I won’t be involved in this.

Matt Landes:

You probably get no action on the Giants in this matchup between Washington and Dallas, but-

Las Vegas Cris:

I mean, Washington.

Matt Landes:

Okay, cool. Scott, did you have one more point to jump in with as well?

Scott Kellen:

I was just going to say we sometimes forget this. Dallas been on the road for three weeks in a row. So we have not seen them at home in over a month. It was Thanksgiving that they played Vegas, I believe November 25th. So, and then they were in Kansas City before that. So four their last five games have been on the road, maybe that’s played into their offensive production going down a little bit, and maybe we’ll see a little bit more spirited out effort from them.

Scott Kellen:

I will caution. This is another divisional game, higher total since week 11 and beyond these. And this goes all the way back to 1983, these teams tend to come under the total as a whole. So they were two and one again last week. So this does have the making of a lower scoring game just based on that. Although I do feel that Dallas can get there with the team totals and maybe I’ll regret that, but we’ll see. But just a word of caution, these divisional higher totals late in the year.

Matt Landes:

Yeah. Well, we are now 15 games down ,one to go for week 16. So let’s try to finish on a high note. The Monday nighter, the Dolphins traveling to New Orleans, another one off the board at the moment at BetUS. It looks like across some of the market, we are now seeing this line having reopened Miami minus 1.5, total 37.5 due to some big quarterback COVID news that we got from the Saints this morning. Cris, with that in mind, how are you looking at this matchup?

Las Vegas Cris:

Oh, just with thankfulness because I bet the Denver game yesterday and I was just about to bet New Orleans minus three, because it was strengthening toward 3.5. And for whatever reason, I said, “Ah, I’m not going to pull the trigger.” And boy, am I glad I didn’t pull the trigger? So I’m just thankful I don’t have a bet on this game. I would’ve taken New Orleans, but with the fourth string quarterback, I can’t get involved in this at this point. I suppose if the line got really wacky and I could get a… If I may, if I could get a 3.5, I’d get involved in this game, but we won’t see it.

Matt Landes:

Yeah. And I’m thankful for this one as well, because I need to tell myself to remember the good breaks we get with all this on predictability in the news cycle. Last week, I took a bit of a bet on the look headline Miami, a juicy plus three laid minus 120. And after the Saints shut out Tampa Bay and Miami was a little sluggish against the Jets, when that line reopened, I certainly wasn’t feeling good about my early bet. And now I see the Dolphins flipping to the favorite for reasons I couldn’t have possibly handicapped. So sometimes the variance really painful when it swings against you, but also important to keep in mind and appreciate those moments where it works in your favor. Now we’ll just see if the Dolphins can go out and take care of business against a depleted Saints quarterback room.

Matt Landes:

And I think they might need that good break as far as the Saints being depleted at quarterback, because this is just the Dolphins second road game since Halloween. And not only have they been at home, but they’ve been cleaning up against a pretty weak strength of schedule. This is also Miami’s first time leaving the Eastern Time zone since September. So Scott, when it comes to that factor in this game, do you think the Dolphins might be coming in a bit overrated because of just what they’ve been feasting on recently at home? Or could they be as fresh as the road team will be because they haven’t had to travel recently?

Scott Kellen:

They could be fresh. And to your point, they’re going to catch a break here. As you said, Matt, they’ve been playing a lot of bottom feeders here and I’m not going to call the Saints a bottom feeder because they’ve got some pretty quality players on that team. And we just saw what they did to Tampa. My God, they shut them out. That’s pretty dang impressive. But they’re going to be down to what?

Scott Kellen:

They’re four string quarterback basically. You got no Winston, no Siemian, no Taysom Hill, you down to a four string quarterback. I don’t know what this is going to. I don’t like playing. This total was 38.5 or so. I don’t like playing low totals like that at NFL. It doesn’t take much to get over a total, the few mistakes, but this game pegged a little bit lower scoring as a whole.

Scott Kellen:

I can’t imagine. I’m going to take a look at the lower total here. But I just don’t see a lot of points scored in this game. This New Orleans defense is very good and they’re relatively healthy now. We saw what they just did. And now it’s just hard to imagine the Saints doing a whole lot on offense here other than just trying to run the ball and move the ball a little bit on the ground. So could be wrong in that. Saints are coming in in a pretty bad situation coming off a double digit win. But I was looking to actually play Miami in a teaser possibly and get it up over seven. But that dream is long gone now. So I think it’s going to be a lower scoring game. Maybe somehow figure out a way to get involved based on that premise. But for me right now, nothing.

Las Vegas Cris:

I think Miami is the number one team over the last five weeks of points gained against the rest of the league. So they’re doing a lot of things very well and it’s hard to ignore that. And boy, I’d really like to get behind this New Orleans team because they’ve got a lot of other components that are playing well. We saw that in Tampa Bay last week. But boy, it’s going to be tough. Maybe I’ll talk myself into the Saints by Monday. We’ll see.

Matt Landes:

Well, I was going to follow up with Scott specifically, but after you said that, Cris, a question for both of you, the Dolphins were the team that was a possible teaser candidate before the shake up this morning. Now, if anybody’s getting teased in this game, it’s going to be the Saints, but with their fourth string quarterback in play, that could mean a lot of added variance introduced to the equation. Do either of you have any degree of comfort potentially teasing New Orleans in a really low scoring game if this total’s accurate?

Scott Kellen:

For me… Go ahead, Cris.

Las Vegas Cris:

No, go ahead. I want to think of something to say.

Matt Landes:

The hard hitting questions here.

Scott Kellen:

Just raise your finger when you’ve thought of something, I’ll stop. I just need to find out a little bit more about the quarterback. Honestly, I don’t know enough about the quarterback to really speak intelligently. If something come across where I feel at least or some competency and we will say this, I mean, we know Sean Payton’s going to develop something that’s going to put that quarterback in the best position to succeed, et cetera, et cetera.

Scott Kellen:

So if I can get confident that they’re just not going to fall apart from a quarterback standpoint, shoot, get more than seven at home with that really defense against Miami who was so so, that could be inviting actually.

Las Vegas Cris:

I can’t confirm this. Another thing I saw scroll by Flores as the coach of Miami has seen this quarterback before coached against him, or I think he coached against him in a bowl game.

Scott Kellen:

Is this the guy from Notre Dame? Is that who that is?

Las Vegas Cris:

So he’s already done… He’s got some familiarity with the guy, which works against the Saints, because usually you like to be able to surprise a backup quarterback with the other team being unable to prepare. So that puts them at a little bit of a disadvantage that Flores has a familiarity with them.

Matt Landes:

Well, some next level analysis to, I think it, at this point, tie a bow on week 16, guys. I know that I am partial, but I’d say that’s pretty good work by the three of us these past couple days in such a crazy news cycle. I’m not sure where else anybody’s finding this level of analysis for all 16 games on such a wacky board. So hopefully, this is providing some good value to the audience. I know I’m having a blast doing it with you guys. And as we hit the home stretch here, let’s take a look at our best bets for week 16. We do have some consensus here. Cris and I got the Rams leg of a teaser home on Tuesday. We both took them down to minus one against the Seahawks. So now hoping the Packers can just take care of business against the Browns on Christmas.

Matt Landes:

Not showing up here, but Cris sounds like you’re also in play on that Chiefs-Bills teaser. So a good week for teaser consensus will keep our fingers crossed there. Cris, why don’t you walk us through the rest of your card, some games pictured here as well as a few that you’ve added over the course of this show. So talk us through that and what you consider your best bet for week 16.

Las Vegas Cris:

Well, I can’t read it because it’s all tiny on my screen, but I know I have Denver at pick’em and I added the Denver under 41.5 and-

Scott Kellen:

Got Detroit plus 5.5, Indiana pick, and Rams-Green Bay teaser.

Las Vegas Cris:

Yeah. The Indiana pick which that’s a little dicey, and I like the Lions with any quarterback. If Goff is in there, boy, do I really like that play? That’s all I’m going to say. I probably should have said it during the talk. I’d really like that play if Goff plays.

Matt Landes:

All good, bringing it up now. It really rewards the audience that sticks around to the end for this. So no harm done there. In addition to that Rams-Packers teaser, I’m on the Jags team total under 20.5 and a teaser with the Bills plus 8.5 tied to the Chiefs minus 1.5. And thanks to Scott’s breaking news update during our show, I’ll go ahead and say that Bills-Chiefs teaser, my favorite bet for a week 16 at this point. Scott, walk us through your card and your favorite bet of the week.

Scott Kellen:

Yeah, the two plays we’ve got here is Cincinnati, Baltimore over 45, and Dallas team total over 28.5. I’m going to go with the Dallas team total over 28.5. They’re coming home after being on the road for three games and they are fairly healthy other than the left tackle potentially being out. If he plays, that’s even a bigger boost. And this Washington secondary has not been good this year, they’re decimated. I think this is an opportunity for Dallas to get right offensively and we’ll go over the 28.5. I’ve got them pegged for about 32.2 points. So we got a little bit of value there. Obviously under the key numbers of 30 and 31, so I like the over 28.5.

Matt Landes:

Nice. And of course we have mentioned previously about one more friendly reminder. We will probably be dropping in some bets in the comment section below this video over the next couple days, as we get more information to inform our week 16 wagering decisions. So stay tuned there for some additional plays leading up to kickoff. And otherwise, I think we can put our week 16 breakdown in the books, guys. To our YouTube audience, thanks again for tuning in, give us a quick thumbs up, subscribe to the channel.

Matt Landes:

And a programming note as we wrap things up here, same schedule for us next week ahead of New Year’s Eve. The Pick Show coming to you Thursday, December 30th at 3:00 PM Eastern, noon Pacific, and our regular time on Tuesday. And of course that means we will be back live with you on Tuesday at 5:30 PM Eastern, 2:30 Pacific for our early look at week 17. Until then everybody, have a safe and merry Christmas and we will see you Tuesday right back here at BetUS where the game begins.