Matt Landes:
… and build on some strong momentum recently. All three of us, Scott, not with us for today’s show, but all three of us above 500 and we will look to provide as much value as we can to build on that heading into week 17. And we’d like to take a quick moment at the top of the show to thank everybody for joining us on YouTube. Please give us a quick thumbs up, subscribe to the channel and jump in that chat. Let us know what you think as we work our way down the week 17 board. And Cris, as we get to it, of course on Tuesday, you, myself and Scott did jump through six games, so I’ll run through those really quickly. If you want to hear our breakdowns on any of these, you can check out our show from a couple of days ago.
Matt Landes:
Giants, Bears, Bucks, Jets, Eagles, Washington, Jacks, Patriots, Cardinals, Cowboys and Lions, Seahawks, so Cris, with those out of the way, that leaves 10 left for you and I to tackle today. Let’s stay with the early window on Sunday and kick things off with the Raiders and the Colts. Indianapolis currently laying a touchdown. It reduced big, -105, total 44.5 and I’ve gotten involved on the Colts. I think at this point I would like them and a moneyline parlay. Of course, this line hinges greatly on Carson Wentz’s status, the current number basically building him back into this game. Cris, what do you make of all the line movement we’ve seen, all the news pertaining to this game in particular this week and how does that leave you feeling at the current number?
Las Vegas Cris:
Yeah, it’s frustrating. The history in this game is quite comical just because it became known that Wentz was going to go out to bettors and actually before the lines moved or before it was announced to the general public. So the bettors knew and moved the line down rapidly. And then a few minutes later, it was announced that Wentz would be out and the line plummeted. And subsequently went all the way down to 1.5, 2, 2.5 at a few places and then the NFL odds released their COVID policy, their new COVID policy, which would leave a pathway for Wentz to get back in. And I understand this new COVID policy to basically be trust, “Do you feel well enough to play?”
Matt Landes:
Honor system.
Las Vegas Cris:
It’s still a little confusing and relies a lot on trust, but a little too early for me to act on this game. I think Wentz is going to play. I’m interested in this game. If somehow Wentz is in and I’m laying less on a touchdown, but I can’t really do anything with it at this time. Indianapolis I have with the fourth best performance over the last five weeks in Las Vegas is still down like 26. And there’s just too much separation in these two teams and these games are too important for Indianapolis. So I look for maximum effort by Indy and they should be getting healthier.
Las Vegas Cris:
Last week, they played with the … They were missing their entire offensive line and kept … They have one guy left and they kept on losing people. They were down to one practice guy that had never played a down in the NFL last week. They were that dire, but they’re a lot healthier this week. And if Wentz goes, I want to remind people, check the comments. It’s just too difficult in today’s day and age. If I have some plays to add, I’m going to add them into the comment section obviously before the game start or whenever I have them, but at this time, I can’t do anything.
Matt Landes:
We saw this line at Kohl’s -7.5 before the Wentz news. You touched on it going down as low as -1.5 when it was assumed he would be out. At this number, a lot of probability pointing in the direction of Wentz going. If and when we get that confirmation, where do you think this line settles?
Las Vegas Cris:
Well, I think it goes to 7 certainly. If you shop the markets now, there are 6.5s out there, but I want to make sure Wentz is in. See, I can’t do anything with it yet, but if he’s in, it was 7.5 before, I think it becomes at least a strong 7, maybe 7.5 again.
Matt Landes:
Well we can keep an eye on anything you may do in this game in the comment section of this video, and later on in the show, I will close the loop on the moneyline parlay. And on that note, let’s move on to the next game on the board, Atlanta at Buffalo. The Bills, a hefty 14.5-point favorite with -105 big attached to that number, total 44. And Cris, I’ll note for this one, the Falcons last in the league in DVOA and I believe that might be the case with EPA and point differential. Maybe you can confirm those two metrics, but they do have seven wins ironically enough and that record seven and eight they’re carrying into this game, not pulling the market when we look at this big number the Bills are laying.
Las Vegas Cris:
It’s absolutely flabbergasting to me how that team has seven wins. They have a point differential of -122. There’s only four teams worse than them and you guys can figure out which teams those are because they’re the very bottom of the rung. The Atlanta hasn’t beaten anybody. They’ve beaten the Giants, the Jets, Miami when they were decimated, New Orleans when they were decimated, Jacksonville, Carolina and the Lions. There’s not a marquee win there and they’ve just been getting crushed. As far as Buffalo, I like Buffalo on this and I lean on this one. BetUS, it’s 14.5. I become involved at 14 on this one because Buffalo has a history of just running over bad teams. And I think they got straight over the last couple of weeks and they’re on track. They’re healthy. They get Beasley back in their home and I have Atlanta as the worst team in the league, I believe. There’s one team worse.
Las Vegas Cris:
I have them 31st. I have Buffalo top five and I have confidence the Buffalo will roll this team, but I want a -14 if possible.
Matt Landes:
I’m generally not one for narratives, but I do realize a common talking point this week is the Bills coming off that big win in New England. Possible letdown spot. Again those are not my words, but I realized those are out there. It sounds like you’re not too concerned about that affecting the Bills in this matchup.
Las Vegas Cris:
Well, my numbers are just so far off on this game. My numbers show that this should be 21. So I’m a full touchdown better than what my numbers say. So factor accordingly let down spot, but let’s remember, there was, what, two games ago or three games ago where Buffalo could have just ran out the clock, but no, they ran plays and they purposely scored to pile it on. They have this college mentality about them where they really want to dig it in sometimes and that’s the type of team that I want. I don’t want some team that’s going to need the ball and just run out the clock. I want that team playing trick plays or whatever with two minutes to go and no need to score and they do it anyway.
Matt Landes:
Especially when you need the margin that this point spread is implying. I get the need for an aggressive team, Buffalo might fit the mold. And speaking of piling on, Cris, the next team we’ll get to, Cincinnati really running it up on Baltimore for the second time this season last week. This week the Bengals hosting the Chiefs in Kansas City laying 5 on the road and this one, total of 51 and I’m in play on this total. I like it over 51. That would be my price ceiling with 51 being a pretty key number, but I was sold by a breakdown I heard from the handicapper Fabian Sommer, a good friend over in Germany. He goes by Suuma in sports betting circles and he originated this. He broke it down better than I can, but I’ll relay a few of the highlights that I found particularly impactful.
Matt Landes:
This game features the top two teams in the league in EPA per drop back when we factor out turnovers. And the Chiefs’ kryptonite, it’s been pretty well documented that too high look on defense. The past couple of weeks, they’ve shown some pretty strong signal of finally figuring that out against a Cincy defense with a soft middle and Travis Kelce returning to the lineup. I don’t expect Kansas City to struggle to put up points and I like the Bengals chances too at least compete with them for a good chunk of this game because the Chiefs defense, while it’s been on a roll and I don’t want to discredit any of the production they’ve shown us really over the past, what, a couple months or so, this marks a pretty big step up in class for them. Joe Burrow playing the way he is with that dynamic trio at wide receiver for Cincinnati, plus Joe mixing out of the backfield.
Matt Landes:
So I like our chances of seeing fireworks over 51 and pocket for me. When it comes to the side, Cris, buy low, sell high, a common thing that bettors look for, you can’t really buy low on either of these teams. I figure if anybody’s getting involved in aside, it’s just figuring out who they’re selling higher at this point between the Chiefs and the Bengals.
Las Vegas Cris:
Yeah, this is a fascinating game, I have a feeling it’s going to be the “public dog” where for those that don’t know is, when the public likes an underdog, it’s pretty rare and those seem to have one of those higher rates of not covering the spread, when it attracts the public to bring the line down. So I’m not going to have a play on the side on this. I do lean toward that over. What I worry about is just I think Kansas City can cause a lot of problems for Burrow in their offensive line. And that could affect their offensive output and we know that Kansas City has the ability to stretch out drives. So if the Kansas City defense is able to stifle Cincinnati in the least, well, that’s going to be pretty hard to get over the number. So that’s what’s keeping me off the total because after Burrow throws for 525 last week, I don’t look for a repeat of that.
Las Vegas Cris:
I think Mahomes has little pride and there’s been some comparisons between the two quarterbacks and I think Kansas City is going to come to play. And I should know better on this, but because I’m not playing it, I don’t know. I think Kansas City needs this game to lock up their number one seed. Do you know-
Matt Landes:
Tennessee is still in the hunt as crazy as that may be given the gap between the Chiefs and Titans, but the Chiefs do need to keep their foot on the gas for sure.
Las Vegas Cris:
But I think that if they win that they’re good to go and they don’t need to show up at Denver next week. If that’s the case, I would really like Kansas City even more, but if I had to make a play on this, I really want to play Kansas City, but my metrics don’t justify it and barely justify it, but not enough for a play. So I guess that summarizes it. I lean Kansas City, but I won’t be betting it, unless the line comes down.
Matt Landes:
And I was going to get to that. With a lot of public support for the Bengals, is there a number at which you could possibly see yourself getting involved with the Chiefs?
Las Vegas Cris:
[inaudible 00:11:33], it’s not going to get low enough for me to get involved. I just think Kansas City’s going to take care of business, I really do.
Matt Landes:
Well, we can leave it at a lean on the side for you, again over 51 for me in this matchup and we will move on to the next game on the board, another game with AFC playoff implications, Miami at Tennessee, Titans laying 3.5, total of 40. And Cris, I want to get your thoughts on the situation in this one. Situation, another handicapping factor that I often think can be overblown, but this is a pretty extreme case when I look at it. Miami second game this week both on the road. For the Titans, just their second game in 11 days, both of those being at home. And if we look at the Dolphins since Halloween, just two road games and the opposition they faced since then, the Texans, the Panthers, the Jets twice, the Giants, the Saints with Ian Book at quarterback, we do have to give them credit at a certain point for taking care of business.
Matt Landes:
We saw what happens in the Chargers-Texans game last week when the favorite doesn’t show up to take care of business, but at the same time got to think this road game in Tennessee quite a step up given what the Dolphins had faced recently.
Las Vegas Cris:
On the metric side of things, Miami is number one over the last five weeks in improvement against other teams, but who they played? They went two months without even going on the road or they played one game on the road in two months. Basically nobodies. Houston crippled Baltimore, the Jets twice, Carolina, the Giants, New Orleans with nobody. That resumes is just atrocious. Sorry, I’m having computer problems. I’m trying to get to other stuff. But Tennessee is one of these teams that I’ve discounted most of the season, but as we pivoted last week with Buffalo, I have to pivot on this one too a little bit where I have to back Tennessee. I lean Tennessee, but I prefer if that line was 3, so no official play here with the BetUS 3.5. I don’t worry whether the receiver of-
Matt Landes:
Julio Jones, AJ Brown.
Las Vegas Cris:
You know what? He’s half there anyway even when he’s in the lineup, so that’s not crucial in any way. And as you mentioned, that long rest is going to help out and this is the first time we’ve ridiculed Tennessee’s defense coming into the season, but they’re pretty strong. They’re above average with their defense and I think that that’s going to help them out. I think it’s going to be really tough with the way Tennessee matches up with Miami. It’s going to make it a lot harder on Tua to do what he’s been doing against some of these other teams. So strong lean on Tennessee at this point and I might come in on that if that gets down to 3 or maybe even the 3.5 later on.
Matt Landes:
I’m with you on that lean and the only thing keeping me from getting in play even at this number for a reduced amount so far, I have heard some other guys that I respect quite a bit, liking the Dolphins at 3.5 and 3, obviously the king of key numbers. So with this lean on the Titans right now, I think of this being a Braveheart game in the sense of that moment where William Wallace is just holding the line as the enemy’s approaching and bearing down on them and really just holding until the last minute. I feel like that’s my plan for this game, just waiting until we hopefully see a 3. If we do see one, we might have to be more patient than usual, so I do like the Titans, gun to my head at 3.5. Man, I still might have to flip a coin if I could just to see if I play them, but at the 3, I’d lock that in. So another game that might be some involvement from both of us and the comments as kickoff approaches.
Las Vegas Cris:
It’s one of those where you can evaluate the line because Miami certainly is the flavor of the day so to speak. And the fact that this won’t go down to 3 says a lot because I’ve heard a lot of sharps, other people on Miami. And if they can’t move this line down, that says something about it. Maybe it goes down on Sunday and that’s a different story, but it really just says that there’s some real support out there also in Tennessee here.
Matt Landes:
And when it comes to one factor with the Titans wide receiving core, I know you mentioned Julio being halfway in anyway when he’s in the lineup, but the other key cog in that receiving group, AJ Brown, when he returned last week, that is a material difference maker and I wonder if a lot of bettors looking at things. Over the last five weeks or so, a time horizon you often refer to to get a grasp on recent performance, with him coming back in the lineup, anything they did the few weeks he was out probably becomes a lot less relevant. So do you think maybe his presence might be getting a little bit underweighted from other bettors looking Miami’s way?
Las Vegas Cris:
I’m not sure. I think people make too big of a deal of one or two players out of these lineups. And I think especially that’s true this year alone. If we look back at how I summarized the Lions, when you have these teams with so many people having to participate, it’s atypical of previous seasons, you usually have 15 guys would’ve never played or rarely played. I’ll guarantee you on most teams, everybody has experience in game this season and that really helps this season. So you’re not going to have as many follow ups and you’re going to have more consistency that these people have gone in. So I’m not concerned as much about one or two people missing the lineup. It just doesn’t seem as important this year. There’s been so many times where you’ve got a bunch of these guys out and somehow these teams are winning for fun. So it just goes to show that these guys that are backups are real players trying to prove themselves and busting their hump for to keep a position in the league.
Matt Landes:
And we’re probably going to see a backup trying to prove himself in the next game we’ll get to the Rams traveling to Baltimore to take on the Ravens. Quick look at the line on this game, Rams favored by 3.5, total 46.5. And Cris, that backup I was referring to, maybe going to be Huntley for the Ravens under center, sounds like Lamar made an underwhelming return to practice yesterday and then missed today. So if we see Huntley go, I’m wondering where you see this line moving and in the unlikely event that we do see Lamar, where do you see the line netting that way?
Las Vegas Cris:
Well, if I was a Baltimore back, I think I’d rather have Huntley in the lineup. I’d rather have 100% of him than 70% of Jackson. This year for Jackson, he’s going to end up … There was MVP talk. This guy had one of the best first five game starts ever. He was on fire, but since game five, he was a disaster even before he got injured. So I think this season is going to end up being a write off for him. As we see this line tick up to as high as 5 right now, I think people are confident he’s not going to play. I would think the ceiling on this would probably be 6 when they officially announce them out. And if they announce them in, it will go all the way down to pick or -1 for the Rams, I would think. I’m not going to get involved in this game. I had the Rams as basically supposed to be a 3-point favorite. So if it goes up 2 points or down 2 points, it doesn’t vary enough off my model to make it a play frankly.
Matt Landes:
Nothing wrong with passing one, the value’s not there. We’ll look to uncover some value as we make our way to the late window on Sunday. As we do so, a quick timeout, friendly reminder to the YouTube audience, give us a quick thumbs up, subscribe to the channel, jump in that chat and we will turn the page to that late window Sunday starting with the Broncos at the Chargers. BetUS having the Chargers as a 7-point favorite at +105 big under 46. I guess the over/under being 46 in this one. And Cris, I’m wondering in this matchup, what’s the opposite of the saying, “The unstoppable force versus the immovable object”? Because the Broncos run game last week just 1.1 yards per carry. I think defense is no, they don’t have to respect Drew Lock very much. But for the Chargers run defense, against the Texans of all teams last week, their best defender was the goal line. So what do you make of that matchup here?
Las Vegas Cris:
I think they should have brought in Phillip Rivers. I just can’t believe. Here’s the bizarre thing about it is as anemic as Denver seems to be, metrically that they’re in the top 10 over the last five weeks in value gained. Obviously, it’s probably primarily on defense because they can’t be gaining on offense. I was told that they announced Teddy was out for sure.
Matt Landes:
I haven’t seen anything yet for sure, but all indications have been pointing that way.
Las Vegas Cris:
I looked before we went on the show because I was talking to somebody else and they said that they announced it yesterday, but I haven’t seen that. So I’m still holding out hope that Teddy plays because if Teddy plays, I really like Denver. And even if he doesn’t, the line is going to go up and I’m going to have to hold my nose and take Denver one way or another, but let’s get some more information first before we pull the trigger for show purposes. There is no line up at BetUS on it right now, but they’ll pop one up as soon as it’s figured it out. That tells me that Teddy must be not officially out yet. The line seems a little low. I think it would shoot to 7, 7.5 if they announce him out.
Las Vegas Cris:
The Chargers, how they did that last week is beyond me. It’s just unbelievable the way this team has its ups and downs. And to lose to Houston last week like they did, it’s absolutely inexcusable. And I’ve said this the entire season while other people have rated that team as possibly number one or number two or number three. They were never ever, ever close to the top 10, never close, man. You get these people that wear pajamas and all kinds of things, they don’t-
Matt Landes:
Hey, those are headed for Goodwill. So they go to a better purpose.
Las Vegas Cris:
That’s all I got to say on this. I’m on Denver one way or another. Let’s see what happens and who’s in.
Matt Landes:
Is there a number … It sounds like 7.5 might be the number you’re waiting for if we get confirmation that Bridgewater is out.
Las Vegas Cris:
I think if Bridgewater is in that there’ll be … Full disclosure, I’ve already wagered down the game and I took +6. At this juncture, in this exact situation, with it being so close to 7 and things looking dicey, I sit back and wait a little bit. And I think that the line would go down to as low as possibly 4, 4.5 if Teddy’s in. I think there could be a big move here. That’s one of the reasons why I took +6 earlier in the week. So for show purposes, there is no line, so I can’t really do anything, but at 6.5, I might take it.
Matt Landes:
Something you’ve talked about in recent weeks is giving yourself some flexibility maybe in the form of teasers or moneyline parlays when you know there’s another game you might want to bet on any way. And in a case like this where you took the 6 and we, I think, can see a pretty plausible path to the line possibly going to a solid 7, if not a touch north of it if Drew Lock is under center for Denver. Typically, in that situation, I could see you wanting to maybe get off of the +6 a bit by teasing the favorite down before that line moves too much further, but that would involve backing the charges in some form and how would you feel about that possibility?
Las Vegas Cris:
I think it’s definitely worth considering. I had to do that stuff last week and it’s possibly a good idea, but I just don’t know. To answer your question, yeah, of course, it’s worth considering, but considering I like them with or without Lock, I’m already involved. It’s not a situation where the team is going to be significantly different than I expected them to be. I really did think Teddy was going to be in, but I was going to suck it up with Lock anyway. These interdivisional rivalries have funky results and that’s a lot of points. And we expect the Charges to come back and rebound, but Denver’s defense causes a lot of problems for people and they can be disruptive. And you just don’t know. You just don’t know. That’s a lot of points in this situation.
Matt Landes:
Well, let’s move on to the team that put a thumping on the Chargers last Sunday, that would be the Houston Texans, still have a hard time believing it, but Houston off of that win, now traveling out west to take on the 49ers. San Francisco laying 13 at even money, total 44. And Cris, my only note for this game is I’m going to need you to tell me who’s playing quarterback for the ‘9ers? If it’s Jimmy G, how effective can he be with a broken bone and a torn ligament on his throwing hands? If it’s Trey Lance, what does he bring to the table? For Houston Davis Mills looked probably much better than he actually is last week. So I just don’t know what we’re going to see on either side from the most important position on both of these teams.
Las Vegas Cris:
Yeah, you like to see a guy like Mills breakout and do something like that. I didn’t watch any of the game, but from what I hear, he did very well. They earned that victory offensively for sure, but this isn’t a game I can get involved in. I think Lance will start. We heard the coach volunteered that he’s been excellent in practice and I think they like to get them in a situation to get some experience before heading in a situation where they can’t get away with it. They’re supposed to win this game handily, which I think is a good idea. I think, in the future, teams are going to go to platooning quarterbacks, especially when they switch to an 18-game season. It’s just too hard to stay healthy and you’ve got to have two quarterbacks that can play.
Las Vegas Cris:
Your team can’t be entirely different if you lose your starting quarterback. You have to have some continuity and all the other positions are getting these people to play, why not the quarterback?
Matt Landes:
You mentioned teams needing to have two quarterbacks that can play and I can’t help but think of the road team in this next game, the Carolina Panthers having two if not more quarterbacks that apparently can’t play all that well these days. They’re traveling to New Orleans, the Saints laying 6.5, low total of 38. And this is where I will close out that moneyline parlay I touched on with the Colts at the top of this show. I’m willing to give the Saints a hall pass on last week’s performance. They were 1 for 15 on third and fourth down. Of course that was with Ian Book at quarterback, kind of fitting they go for less than three net yards per pass, two interceptions including a pick six. That’s a pretty Newton-esque stat line against the team that just benched Cam Newton to go back to Sam Darnold. Cris, what are you looking for in this matchup?
Las Vegas Cris:
I definitely like the New Orleans side in this. I took it on the chin on Monday night, and boy, that was painful to watch that quarterback play. And there was just something off. Lattimore on defense had some mental errors, at least two that I saw and I didn’t watch the whole game, which I thought was pretty, pretty odd because that was an important game for him and he’s a leader and I just thought that that struck me as odd. And I felt that there were a couple of coaching decisions by Payton that made me scratch my head also, that maybe the wheels are off this bus more than we realized, but I still have to lean toward New Orleans.
Las Vegas Cris:
The only way I would do it though would probably be the way you’re doing it and use a teaser or a parlay on the moneyline. You just can’t trust what they’re going to do and we’re supposed to get back Hill, correct?
Matt Landes:
Yes, that’s the assumption.
Las Vegas Cris:
But the problem is, who’s behind them? Oftentimes, you see these quarterbacks come back in the first game in, then they’re out by the second quarter reaggravating the injury. So that’s something that comes into my handicapping is I wouldn’t expect Hill … It’s not a prediction. I just have to handicap it with the assumption he doesn’t finish the game. Who’s going to cover him? And that’s a pretty scary proposition in my book.
Matt Landes:
That would scare me a lot. Oh, good one, in your book, with Ian Book being a possible contender to replace him, although we’ve got Trevor Siemian, I think, with the new COVID policy, probably in line to be that backup. That scares me at least a little bit less and I think for the same, something that could benefit them. When we talk about guys like Hill, possibly Siemian getting some snaps, also other position groups, they had a lot of COVID issues last week. So while it’s a short week in that sense that they played on Monday night, I think it’s a long short week if you will with the Saints because a lot of the key players they’re getting back for Sunday’s game, not coming off of short rest on Monday night since they weren’t able to go against the Dolphins.
Matt Landes:
One more point on this game I wanted to follow up with you on, Cris, when it comes to evaluating a moneyline parlay versus a teaser, I think moneyline parlay is currently running anywhere in the range of -120 to -125 with the Saints and Colts right now. Standard 6-point teaser being at -120, these are almost the same bet. Is there a case in which you would have a preference for either bet one way or the other?
Las Vegas Cris:
Whichever ways can you get me either more points or save me money, I want to be it that -0.5. I don’t want to have those -1s. You’d be very surprised you would think 1 lands more often than it does, but it doesn’t. 1s do not land. It’s, I believe, as far as single digits go, other than 9, 1 is the next least popular number for a game to land.
Matt Landes:
The lonely number.
Las Vegas Cris:
But nevertheless, I want that 1 if I can get it. So that’s the way that I’m going to weigh it is, “Am I getting the full 1? How much is it costing me?” I don’t want to be investing more than 125. If I can help it, I’m either a teaser or a moneyline in that situation.
Matt Landes:
And in the case of the BetUS line, it was the Colts laying 7. Again the 6-point teaser would get you down to -1 on Indy for a price point of -120. If you were looking at that versus a moneyline parlay of -125, is that getting off of the 1 for the Colts? Is that worth 5¢ or is it more something that would only be worth a couple cents at most?
Las Vegas Cris:
I probably would … [inaudible 00:32:25] on both of them?
Matt Landes:
If it was Indy -1 and the Saints -0.5 a point working off of these current BetUS odds.
Las Vegas Cris:
Right now, they’re both 7, so yeah. If I lay the -125, then you pick on both of them.
Matt Landes:
Got it. So it’s a fringe case, but it gives me some reassurance having locked in that moneyline parlay as the pick for the show. So we will leave it at that for this game and move on to primetime, a big NFC North matchup, the Vikings traveling to Green Bay to take on the Packers. Packers laying a touchdown total 46.5. And Cris, last week, we were on Minnesota. We locked that in in the comment section when we got +3.5 shortly after we wrapped up our recording. The Vikings went up more than half a yard per play advantage over the Rams, +2 in turnovers. Not only not covering but not winning that game outright, I found to be quite surprising. What do you make of what we saw from the Vikings last week?
Las Vegas Cris:
It’s just very disappointing. I expected more out of them. Coming into this week, some people think that they’re just dead in the water. Thielen is now on the IR for the rest of the season. They had somebody else go have surgery. He’s going to be out for, maybe not surgery, but he’s out. That might be a COVID out, a linebacker I believe. But this game is going to be like five degrees and it’s going to be at night and it’s going to be cold and chilly and it had just has everything written on it at that point, so be at a premium. Minnesota has had good results against Green Bay. They go back and forth. And this Green Bay is falling apart. If you look back at all their wins, they’re scraping by. It’s absolutely ridiculous and I’ve had a lot of conversation with other people. We can’t figure it out because the metrics don’t have Green Bay.
Las Vegas Cris:
As far as I’m concerned, I’m not even going to publicly say how low I had them, but they’re not close to the top, but we know that they’re good. And is it just Rodgers? They just do whatever they have to do to get by. It seems like they just … It reminds me the way I shoot pool where people get frustrated with me and I do mean it. It’s like sometimes you just play down to your competition or you try when you have to try. And that’s the way I shot pool where it’d just be a mess. And then when the table opens up, boom, boom, boom and that would be frustrating. And that’s the way they are when they play their games. It’s just they do what they have to do to get by.
Las Vegas Cris:
And on the metric side of things, it’s shocking how close to these teams are together. If I only rated teams on the metrics, it’s shocking. So I think 7 points, you have no choice but to take the 7. So I’m on the +7 here and anything can happen. It would not surprise me to see Minnesota winning this game outright someway, somehow. I wouldn’t be using Green Bay teasers thinking it’s some lock because I don’t see, and I could be wrong, I don’t see a reason Green Bay has to win this game. They have some room for error. And they’ve skated by in these recent games too easily, so they need it. They need a little lesson. They need to be, “Hey, wake up.”
Matt Landes:
If they haven’t taken that lesson away from their last two wins and those really dicey end games against the Ravens and Browns then, I’m not sure what will, but I want to see what you think about two factors I’ve heard from people looking more the Packers way, how you factor that into your thought process for this game, if at all. One of them being this a game that will get Kirk Cousins after dark out of that time slot at 1:00 PM Eastern where he seems to perform at his best for some reason. And his wide receivers, Adam Thielen, you touched on, now out for this season, so the Packers can really key in on Justin Jefferson and it sounds like they might get Jaire Alexander back in their secondary. When it comes to the Vikings offensively, what are you looking for in this one?
Las Vegas Cris:
Alexander’s not going to play and you’re right. It looks like Cobb is coming back here soon also. So amazingly enough, Green Bay’s been playing without some stars, not that Cobb’s really a star, but Rodgers likes him a lot. I can’t answer your question. Minnesota underperforms. They’re better than what they’ve done and it’s do or die for sure. And I know it’s a must win, must lose type of scenario where you should go the other way in it, but I just can’t trust Green Bay to cover 7. That’s the only way to look at it for me.
Matt Landes:
Got it. Well then, let’s move on to the Monday night game. Another big divisional matchup, this time in the AFC North, Cleveland is taking on Pittsburgh, and the Browns currently a 3.5-point road favorite at reduced vig at BetUS, total 40.5. And with the hook now, I can’t help myself from biting off a little piece of Pittsburgh. I know the Browns were -4 in turnovers last week. Usually that would have me looking to bet on a team like that to rebound the following week, but a lot of that turnover differential can be put on Baker Mayfield and he is repeatedly making some of the same mistakes. So I don’t expect the Steelers to really let the Browns off the hook that easily. I just struggle to see Cleveland building much of a margin at all in a game like this at 40.5, a pretty low total. And if they’re going to need to win by at least 4, I guess I’m going to roll the dice with the Steelers at home in this one. What are you looking for Cris on Monday Night Football?
Las Vegas Cris:
I can’t help but recall a tweet I saw this week. And this is the mental midget attitude that I think we’re dealing with with Mayfield is his wife tweeted out comparisons with Mayfield stats with Mahomes and one other superstar quarterback. And she didn’t even realize she compared it with two quarterbacks that sat out for the first years. So she’s trying to market Mayfield as having just as good of stats as Mahomes. Mahomes only played one game-
Matt Landes:
Maybe as many touchdowns in passing yards and [crosstalk 00:38:57].
Las Vegas Cris:
So she’s comparing the stats and I forget who the second quarterback was, but just comical. I hate to poop on this guy, but he’s just not good for this team. I don’t know why they’re sticking with them. And boy, this guy has played himself out of at least $20 million a year this year because you can’t trust him for anything. If you look at the highlights, he can’t hit the broadside of a barn. There’s been things that have not been his fault throughout the course of the year and he’s not as immature as he was in years past, but nevertheless, he’s just serviceable. He looks like a bet … Who would you rather have Goff or Mayfield? I’d rather have Goff on the line.
Matt Landes:
Whoever I get to pay less, yeah.
Las Vegas Cris:
Goff was the laughingstock coming into the season. I’m happy with Goff. I don’t want Mayfield. I’m not even sure I’d want Mayfield as a backup. So it’s an interesting situation because it’s going to be the sentimental pick with Pittsburgh and Roethlisberger announcing that this is likely his last home game. I think that that’s just manipulation to try to get the team up and stuff like that. I have the numbers on this right on there, 3, 3.5. I’m glad I get to sit this one out because I don’t want to be backing Cleveland with Mayfield behind center. I would sooner back with the backup, I forget who the backup is, but if you made me make a bet, I would probably lean toward Pittsburgh. It’s all psychological, trying to read the tea leaves, so to speak. The metrics say that this line is right and I don’t trust any of these teams. I don’t trust any of these players at this point.
Matt Landes:
That’ll take us to the end of our week 17 breakdown, perhaps in record time, again with this just being the two of us, but we do have some best bets that we can share with the audience. So as we pull up a full screen graphic, some consensus, Cris and I are both on the Lions, +7. Cris, you are also on the Eagles -4 from our Tuesday show. You have added the Cardinals +6 and the Vikings was +7 in our show today. I know Cardinals-Cowboys we broke down on Tuesday, why don’t you tell us a bit about that pick you’ve added on Arizona?
Las Vegas Cris:
The model basically is hitting that 6. 6 is a much more key number over the recent years than it used to be. 6 is very important and it triggered enough distance between where I made this number and I never expected it to be 6. So this line was much … What was the look ahead line? It was like 2, right?
Matt Landes:
I think it was in that range, 2 or 3.
Las Vegas Cris:
I’m not jumping up and down about it because I do believe Arizona has got some problems, lack of discipline and I think there’s some coaching flaws. And certainly when you see a team scoring 50+ points, they aren’t that good and they’re due for a fall, so to speak. So I just think that Arizona is going to have success here. I think it’s primarily metrics and I’m playing this and I do believe that Arizona can keep this close. Murray can just run all over the place and make plays happen. I don’t think Dallas can bury Arizona frankly.
Matt Landes:
Got it. Well, with that in mind and as we can maybe pull up that graphic again to take a look at our best bets for the week, which of these would you isolate as your favorite bet on the week 17 board?
Las Vegas Cris:
I bet them all the same. I did this last week. I probably like Minnesota. I think Minnesota will keep it close. My second favorite would be the Lions.
Matt Landes:
Got it. All right, well-
Las Vegas Cris:
And I just want to remind, I’ll add more stuff, so check the comments, just waiting for some more information.
Matt Landes:
And last week in the comment section, we added some consensus on a Bills-Chiefs teaser as well as the Bears. So hopefully we can continue to provide some value there. We will absolutely look to do so. And once again, Cris, I’m with you on the Lions. I also took the Giants at +7 at BetUS shortly after our Tuesday show. I know Scott shared a good breakdown that really got me looking their way. That number now has come down. Currently, I’m seeing a lot of 6s out there even some 5.5, but I would say 6 being a price floor on the Giants getting at least those 6 points for a reduced amount compared to what I played at the +7. Still I just struggled to see the Bears being in a spot where they should be expected to build a sizable margin over just about anybody in the league.
Matt Landes:
So the Giants, an add for me and I’ve also gotten in play over the course of this show on the Colts and Saints in a moneyline parlay over 51 when the Bengals host the Chiefs and Pittsburgh +3.5 hosting the Browns on Monday night. I got Giants +7, probably my favorite one to have, but that’s not available, so that wouldn’t be fair to isolate. As a best bet for show purposes, I think I will say, geez, I think that Lions +7 still hanging around. I would feel good if that number moved with us after we took it Tuesday, but I think once Goff is confirmed in, we’ll see that. So Detroit +7 probably my favorite look on the current board.
Matt Landes:
And I also want to note that Scott has added a place since our Tuesday show, so even though he’s not here with us today, in addition to his Tuesday bet, Cardinals-Cowboys over 51.5. Also locking in a bet he alluded to, Eagles-Washington under 44.5. So there is the week 17 portfolio for the three of us as it currently stands. Once again, Cris and I will be adding any plays we lock in between now and kick off in the comment section below this video, so feel free to stay tuned there. And as we start to wrap up, Cris, I wanted to take a quick moment to dedicate today’s show to the late great sports betting legend, David Malinsky. Today would have been his 61st birthday and I was so fortunate to get to know him as a friend and father figure, a partner and a mentor, and point blank, he’s the best man I’ve ever known. I know you’re in Vegas and you didn’t necessarily get to know him well, but I think his reputation continues to outlive him.
Las Vegas Cris:
One of the few people that was notable that I never had a chance to communicate with in any way, shape or form. So I happen to be out of the country at the time and I remember what I was seeing on social media regarding the whole process of him being missing. I was following from Thailand and having not even known the guy, I was thinking about him and hoping for the best and just disappointed, very disappointed, I never was able to meet him because just so many people that I know had great respect for him and such. As you know, I’ve chased down one of your old podcasts and listened to one of those from 2017 because I wanted to go out of my way to listen to him. Very interesting guy, really would have been good to meet that guy. He seems very sharp and I feel like there’s some similarities somewhere, somehow, but he’s much smarter than me but just an attitude, so to speak.
Matt Landes:
For sure. As we’ve done this, I’ve picked up on some similarities as well and I absolutely love it. If anything, I certainly don’t mean to end the show on a down note. I think we can just maybe take away again a sense of not taking anything for granted and just moving forward with that attitude the best we can. And I know everybody … Go ahead.
Las Vegas Cris:
If anybody hasn’t seen it, make sure you see that John Madden documentary. I watched it last weekend, and two days later, it was an awesome documentary. But in two days later, he passes away. So you just never know what’s going to happen and something to just think about as time goes on. Everybody doesn’t stick around forever.
Matt Landes:
Well on the betting boards and in life, we won’t take anything for granted, but we will look to extract as much value as we possibly can in any way, shape or form. And on that note, we’ll go ahead and wrap up this two-man show today. Thanks to everybody on YouTube for joining us. One more reminder to please give us a thumbs up, subscribe to the channel and a programming note. We will be back to our regular schedule next week. That means our pick show coming your way Friday, January 7th at noon Eastern, 9:00 AM Pacific and we will be back at our regular time on Tuesday for an early look at the first ever week 18 in the NFL. So we’re back live on Tuesday at 5:30 PM Eastern, 2:30 Pacific. Until then, everybody, have a safe and happy New Year and we will see you Tuesday right back here at BetUS sportsbook where the game begins. Don’t forget to see out tv content. Bye!
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