Matt:
NFL week 18 just about upon us, and guys, it’s that time where motivation reigns supreme across the league. A lot of lip service across the sports mediaverse going to must win teams this week. But Scott, that reminds me of the adage, if you must win at this stage, then you must not be all that good.
Scott:
That’s right. If you could just turn it on and win at any point, you’re probably not eight and eight, nine and seven, or even 11 and five, because maybe you can win the division. So, I think the only thing that matters this week is, do they need to win? That at least tells you they’re going to hopefully be focused for the whole game or a good part of the game so you can at least make some decisions based on that, but the fact that they need to win clearly does not mean that they will win, and I think that’s a very important thing to remember.
Matt:
Yeah. And Chris, it sounds like with a lot of the motivation talk leading up to games this weekend, there are some unique angles that you’ll be applying to your week 18 betting online approach.
Chris:
Yeah. I find myself against the grain as I listen to various media outlets, and pods, and such. I take a step back approach to this week because it can be a dangerous week because there is so much volatility. But I think people overreact a little bit with the motivation factor. Again, we’ve mentioned this before. Must win, must lose, if you’re in that situation, you’re probably not good enough to win when you have to win, so that’s one concern. But you have to realize something. Some of these games are going to have a lot of replacement players or bench players, but this is a different season because these players have played all year long because of all the COVID situations. Week 18 is a tryout. They want to play in this league next year. They want to demonstrate that they can play. They’re going to try to make plays. They’re not going to just lay over and die.
Chris:
So, you’re going to have players, starters that are going to sit, but their teams may very well do okay. I mean, you’ve got to evaluate that game by game, but don’t assume because a team is sitting their starters that they’re all of a sudden not going to be any good. I mean, you have to take it team by team. I know I’m repeating that. It’s very important because I’ve had some good success. I looked back and I’ve had some good success in the final week of the season. It’s the scariest week for me, but I still lean toward going with my metrics and feel a little bit more confident on them because you have all these other players that have had the experience all year long filling in and they’re on tryouts for next season.
Matt:
You talk about looking at this team by team and we can look to build on that as we get ready to go game by game through the week 18 slate. But before we get there, as we do off the top of these shows, let’s take a look at our records so far this season. We’ll be looking to improve upon them in a pretty murky week 18 betting landscape, but nevertheless, a good opportunity before us to look to finish the regular season strong. And before we get to some of the games, shout out to the audience joining us on YouTube. Please go ahead and take a quick moment to give us a thumbs up, subscribe to that channel, and as always, jump in the chat as we work our way down the week 18 card. And guys, let’s get to it.
Matt:
If there are any games the audience is looking for that you don’t catch on today’s show, then it means you’ll be able to find it from our Tuesday show where we broke down a few games and we will pick up where we left off there. And the early window on Sunday, talking Packers at the Lions, currently Green Bay laying four, total 44 and a half at BetUS, and Chris, it sounds like one of many games where there’s a lot of moving parts to sift through to find any betting value. What’s your outlook on this game at the moment?
Chris:
Well, I definitely want to remind people that we’ve been adding plays in the comment section of the video here. So, added two winners last week, which was nice, and it’s probable that I might add a couple of plays this week as information becomes more available.
Chris:
This Green Bay Detroit game, obviously, I follow the Lions a little bit closer than other teams. Goff is back in the lineup and the line is off the board at BetUS, but it’s going to pop back on at three, three and a half. And for me, I’m going to be looking for a reason to bet the Lions in the situation. The metrics, which obviously favor Green Bay by quite a bit, but we know the Lions are going to bring it. They’re going to come and they’re going to play. And when you’ve got a Goff that’s sitting there, they could have just sat this guy. If they’re going to put him out there, they’re going to put him out to win.
Chris:
And these players are playing hard for their jobs next year, and they’re playing at home, and they play hard every game, and that’s the type of team that I want to have. I believe when Green Bay says, “Well, we don’t want to have a three week layoff,” I think that’s smart, because past history shows that these teams that sit don’t fare well, they have a hard time getting back into football shape. So, I think we’ll get some effort from Green Bay for a long time for much of the game, but if you look back on this matchup between these two teams, they play close games. Some way somehow they just play close games. So, I’m leaning Detroit. I might come in with a comment play on Detroit later on this weekend.
Matt:
With talk of the Packers starters possibly going for some amount of time, do you give any thought to a look at the Lions in the second half?
Chris:
Well, this is an opportunity to bring up. You’re going to possibly hear that in-game betting is just going to be a gold mine here because you can just step up and bet the second halves, or once the starters go out, you can bet the endgame. Wait a minute. These people aren’t idiots, okay? They already know you want to do that. So, when you go in and you bet the second halves and these endgames, they know everybody wants to pound that direction. In all honesty, I’m going to be looking to go the other direction because I think that there could be possibly a lot of value going against the grain in these situations. Not saying that that’s going to be the case, but that’s going to be my first look, is to let these markets develop and move too much and give me too much value to pass up going against the grain on these overreactions.
Matt:
Speaking of letting the markets develop, I’m going to let this market develop before I decide whether or not to do anything in this game. Probably going to be a pass. Just have no clarity on what the Packers are going to do with their starters, and with Goff looking like he’s back in, I want to see how the market responds there.
Matt:
Scott, we got Chris’s take on his Lions, how about your outlook on this one for your Packers?
Scott:
Well, I got no play right now, but I’ll tell you, and as Chris said, this is one of those weeks where by Sunday, some opinions could obviously change based on some other information coming in.
Scott:
First thing I’ll say, and this isn’t really a commentary, and if I think Dan Campbell is going to be a good coach long term, but I love the coaching aspect of him last week. Can they get their ass blown out in Seattle? Seattle runs an end-around late in the game, and Campbell says, “Look, if you don’t want that team running that at the end of the game when they’re blowing us out, just stop them, right?” So, you got to love that mentality, if nothing else, at least coming into this week. Like Chris said, they’re playing Goff, they’re going to play hard. So, in this game knowing where the Packers are going, I’m looking for opportunities to play Detroit in whatever shape or form that might be.
Scott:
Obviously, if Rogers is playing, this is a double digit spread, if he’s playing the whole game and the Packers are playing their starters. It’s down to three, three and a half, four, because everyone knows that he’s not going to play the whole game. Now, how much is he going to play it? I don’t know. I know Chris said, “I think he’s going to play a while.” I don’t think so. I think it’s like a preseason game. He gets out there, he gets some reps, he does this thing, and then they, quite frankly, let Jordan Love have some experience. They’re also probably going to pull some key defensive players.
Scott:
Now, when we get to the Tampa Bay game, we’ll talk about a common area inside, and it’s very true, we can only pull so many starters. There’s only so many players on the team, so you got to think about that, but obviously, key guys are going to get pulled. Offensive guys for the Packers might get pulled, but defensive guys will as well. This totals 44. There’s a few totals this week sitting around 44, which is just under the league average, which tells me the books are just like, “Hey, we’re going to go right down the average here and we’re just going to set this thing, we’ll let the market develop.” It’s still somewhat of a low total.
Scott:
Detroit’s going to have a little bit better opportunities to score, possibly, if the Packers do pull some defensive guys. Possibly a look at the total as well, but it’s nothing for me because there’s a lot of uncertainty as far as how long Green Bay will go with some of their guys, but as I can get a clearer vision of that, or maybe something in-game, which Chris said is not going to be the gold mine that some people might think, I’ll be looking for opportunities to possibly take a shot with Detroit if I think it’s worth it, because you know you’re going to get a full effort out of them for a full 60 minutes in this game.
Matt:
Couple leans to the Lions right now, possibly a look at the total as well, and if we end up blocking in anything between now and kickoff, again, we will update that in the comments section below this video.
Matt:
And with that, guys, let’s move on to the next game on the board. Indianapolis at Jacksonville, the first of a few must win games we’ll get to on this show. The Colts laying 15 and a half, total 44. Scott, what’s your outlook on this one?
Scott:
I’ve got the numbers pretty close to where they are, so no value there. It’s interesting. The Colts have lost six straight games at Jacksonville and they were a road favorite of seven last year. That was week one of last year. Last three games there, they’ve been road favorites, and they lost 27/20 last year. And I remember making this comment in week one last year, and you don’t really think they’re going to lose again because they’re a much better team than Jacksonville. Sure enough, they lost. I don’t think they’re going to lose this week, probably even cover the spread.
Scott:
But Jacksonville is too bad of a team but with enough moments here and there where they actually play okay. I certainly don’t want to lay a whole bunch of points with Indianapolis, but I’m looking here, Jacksonville since the beginning of last year, at home as dogs against playoff teams, and they’ve lost by 24, by 21, by 24, by 12, by 18, by 20, and a [inaudible 00:11:04] say sprinkled in to win against the Colts, to win against Buffalo. So, they’ve had their moments. I certainly would trust the Colts a lot more, although again, they’ve got a bad experience here. No play for me whatsoever at all.
Matt:
Yeah. This is the first game where I think of the saying, must win does not equate to must win by margin. If anything, that would have me looking the Jags way. But then again, Chris, you’ve pointed this out. I feel like you were ahead of the curve on it. This has been the year of the double digit favorite. It’s not necessarily taboo to lay a lot of points anymore. That would bode well for the Colts here. Those two contrasting factors, enough to keep me off of this one for now. Chris, what’s your outlook on Colts-Jags?
Chris:
Well, I’m looking at a lot of L’s. I mean, I don’t recall ever seeing an NFL team with eight straight losses and seven straight against the spread losses in a row. I mean, that really just goes to show what the character of this team in Jacksonville is. And you have to pay respect to Jacksonville’s previous success against the Colts at home, but I can’t get involved in this game, quite frankly, because Indianapolis doesn’t have a reason to win by margin, and Jacksonville has shown no signs of life. I can’t think of a reason in the world they’re going to make an effort, so why get involved?
Matt:
Yeah, that might be a similar refrain as we get to the next game on the board, staying in the AFC south, Tennessee, traveling to Houston where the Titans currently laying 11 on the road, plus 105 attached to that number at BetUS sportsbook. Total, 42 and a half. Chris, any different thoughts on this AFC south matchup relative to the last one we just spoke to?
Chris:
Well, Kansas city plays the day before, which isn’t really optimal, so to speak. If Kansas city were to lose, then that would all but assure Tennessee of having a spot and the line could cave, and vice versa. You might see a jump on Tennessee after Kansas city wins on that line. I would be more inclined to take the points in this game. I think Houston’s been playing really hard. That game last week against San Francisco, that scared me. I thought Houston would show up, and they did. I mean, they fell apart at the end, but they’re trying, they’re making effort. And again, Tennessee doesn’t have to win by margin and they’re going to want to try to stay healthy, so good luck figuring it out, as far as I’m concerned.
Matt:
Yep, I’m there with you. This feels a lot like a carbon copy of that Colts-Jags game. One thing I do have in mind for the Titans, and I’ll be curious to see if anything develops this week to further the look I’m looking to take, is the playoffs approach, maybe pivoting on them once again, because they’ve been pretty much just a decent team at best throughout much of the season, despite the fact that they’re on track for the one seed. But as they get healthier, they’re aligned to get Derrick Henry back, probably not this week, but for the playoffs. And then Mike Vrabel I think deserves a lot of credit for developing a lot of young defensive talent across the roster.
Matt:
The Titans could suddenly go from a decent team to a good team once again, and with home field advantage, just a couple of home games away, potentially, from a Super Bowl appearance, maybe Tennessee does have a bit of a run in them. So, I’m maybe more bullish than most on their playoff prospects for now, but in this one, like you said, Chris, if and when the Chiefs win on Saturday, I could only look the Texans way if this line goes up any further. So, another one for me getting some consideration to add in the comments, once we get more information over the next couple of days. Scott, how about you?
Scott:
I think it’s a great point because line probably is going to go up if Kansas city wins. So, it sits at whatever now, 11, right? And if all of a sudden you with wake up Sunday morning and that thing’s at 14, what changed? Absolutely 100% nothing, right? So, it’s a very good indication what happens these last weeks, points start to get inflated for no reason at all.
Scott:
Again, I make the number about what it is, and I agree, Houston I think has been playing hard lately. Davis Mills showing a little bit of improvement lately. I look at Houston, and again, some of this isn’t so recent so you have to come from the fact that they played a little bit better, but they played three teams this year that I think are similar to Tennessee. New England, who’s a grind it out, maybe hit you with a few big passes us here and there, I remember they lost that game, 25-22. They were actually ahead for a good part of that game. Indianapolis beat them 31, nothing. I think Indy and Tennessee are very similar type teams. And then Seattle beat them by 20. That’s not to say that Seattle is as good as Tennessee, but Seattle is another grind it out team, could hit you with a couple big plays with receivers, and a decent of defense.
Scott:
And the other part of it though, for Tennessee though, they have quietly now got their defensive guys back, and again, some of these teams they played recently haven’t been great offenses, but either it’s Houston, but they’ve allowed three, 17, 19, and zero points in their last four games. I don’t see Houston getting a ton of points in this game. The question is, can Tennessee score enough to obviously create the distance to cover the number? No play for me. The number is basically spot on so I’m not going to get involved.
Matt:
Moving on then from a couple of must win games to what we could consider a must lose game if these teams care about their draft positioning, Washington traveling to take on the Giants and the football team, laying seven for reduced vig at BetUS. Total 38. Scott, that’s an awfully low total but that number seems to be there for a good reason.
Scott:
Yeah, it’s a low total and it’s about where I make the total, so really, no value. But looking back, and I realize this doesn’t mean a ton, but these two teams are 17 and four to the under the last 21 times they’ve played here in New York. So, they play pretty low scoring games relative at least to the number that is set for each individual game. And the giants just as a whole, they’re now 12, two, and one to the under their last 15 games at home. So, they’re just not scoring a lot of points. I’m not going to get involved in this game. If I did anything, I’d want to take the Giants, but how can you take the Giants, given everything that we’ve seen with them the last few weeks?
Scott:
But Washington also is not the kind of team that is really set up to lay a bunch of points on the road. They’ve only won four road games by more than seven points as road favorites in their last 20 chances. Now, that goes back a whole bunch of years, which I know is not relative necessarily to today, but this team does not have the personality or the profile of a team who goes on the road as the, supposedly, superior team and blows away the competition. It’s another reason there’s no way I can lay it with Washington, but given the recent state of the Giants, I don’t want to have anything to do with them. And unfortunately, the total’s about where it should be priced, so even though there’s a lot of under history here, I’m not going to get involved in this one either.
Matt:
Yep. Similar vantage point on my end. I see that touchdown looking awfully large when we see this low total. That seems to magnify the relative value of the points that you could get with the Giants. Initially, that has me looking their way. Then again, I learned my lesson with them last week. Sometimes the ugly value bet is just an ugly bet. I thought I found a good number on the Giants’ plus seven, and they were never in that one against Chicago, so I don’t want anything to do with either of these two teams this week. I feel like they are both equally prone to collapsing at any moment, perhaps like a railing at FedEx field. So, I’m going to stay away from this one. Chris, how about you?
Chris:
Well, here’s another game where you look back at the previous nine games that these teams have played, and between them, there’s one against the spread cover and the rest are all against the spread losses and straight up losses. So, there’s certainly no way in hell I would be laying Washington in this situation, but I can’t find a reason to bet the Giants either, quite frankly. I was listening to some people that brought up an interesting topic in that this is actually a really good spot for Russell Wilson to end up next season. The Giants have enough on defense and some draft picks that they can send Seattle’s way, and this might be a good fit for him. So, just a thought to make this game as interesting as it could be, because I don’t have anything to say about Sunday on it.
Scott:
Are you saying win one for Russell? Is that what you’re saying?
Chris:
Pardon?
Scott:
Are you saying win one for Russell? Is that what you’re saying?
Chris:
When in doubt, you get two bad teams, you take the bad team getting points, so that’s the only way I could look on this. There’s no way I would be… I feel bad for the guy and the circa survivor. He probably has to take Washington because that’s his best choice remaining, but other than that, I don’t know why anybody else would be taking Washington.
Matt:
Chris, you’ve touched on the Russell Wilson sweepstakes this off season. Another team that might be in the mix needing a new quarterback by all indications, involved in the next game we’ll get to, and that would be the Pittsburgh Steelers, traveling to Baltimore to take on their rivals, the Ravens. Pittsburgh currently catching five on the road right now, total 41 and a half. Scott, this is another relatively low total these days but perhaps not low enough.
Scott:
Yeah. For show purposes, from a best bet standpoint, I’m going to play this under 41 and a half. It was bet down a little bit this morning to 41 in a lot of places, and I did take 41 and a half. 41 is a pretty key number. And other than these two scoring 52 points last year here between these two, they haven’t totaled more than 39 in each to last six games played here, so there’s not a lot of points being scored between these two. And we know Pittsburgh isn’t really capable of scoring a lot of points. Doesn’t look like Lamar Jackson’s going to play. I’d be shocked if he plays. So, it seems to be more of a grind it out game. Baltimore has gotten a little bit healthier on defense. There’s still some missing parts there. And we do have some COVID situations both at the receiver spot for Pittsburgh and Joe Haden, the secondary, so we need to see what the end result of that is. So, there’s maybe a few things to be cleaned up here, but I think this is going to be a low scoring game.
Scott:
I’m also tempted to take Pittsburgh, but I do want to wait a little bit here. Baltimore doesn’t blow anybody away. They’ve beaten two teams this year. They destroyed Denver and destroyed the Chargers at home. They haven’t won another game by more than six points. So, if you have the capability of getting six in this game, it’s probably not a bad play. I just do not see the Ravens blowing anybody away, including Pittsburgh. Now, Pittsburgh hasn’t looked good on the road the last three or four games, so that’s all is an obvious concern as well, but this just seems like a lot of points to be laying for a Ravens team that is really turned out to be a so-so team right now.
Matt:
With 41 being a key number for totals, for a lot of the audience checking this out right now, if 41 is the best number they have access to, would you still recommend playing the under, perhaps, for a reduced amount, or what’s your price floor for this total bet?
Scott:
No, I’d play under 41 as well. I was just going to look here, and I should have mentioned it. I think my number on this game, which is part of the reason I’m playing this, really the primary reason, my number on this game is about 36 and a half, 37. So, we got some value there. So, could you go down to 40? Sure. There’s still some value, but 41 is such a key number. I like to hold at 41 and it’s available right now, so go get it if you want it.
Matt:
Glad to hear you’re seeing some value in this one, because I was struggling to figure out what to make of it. I feel like once we get confirmation on Lamar, this line probably going to move down a little bit more. But I have some pause when I look at the Pittsburgh side because I’m getting some Minneapolis miracle vibes, if people remember that game from 2017. Big Ben, an awfully big high to come down from on a short week after his big retirement party on Monday Night Football. I do think the Steelers will be up for this one considering they still do have a sliver of a chance to make the playoffs and it’s a rivalry game. But again, on the short week off of that party at Heinz Field on Monday night, as much as I try to stay away from narratives, I feel like that might be a bit of a factor here. The Steelers also dealing with some COVID issues. So, a pass for me for now. Chris, how about you?
Chris:
I do like the under and I actually played the under for a small amount, but just for a taste. What concerns me is, as you referenced, last week, as they were interviewing Ben after the game, it was as if he forgot there was even another game left in the season. So, it’s just absolutely fascinating how this guy threw almost 50 times for [crosstalk 00:24:43] yards.
Matt:
For like 100 yards.
Chris:
So, maybe his arm is hurting, I don’t know what it is. But if anything, I’m going to lean Baltimore in this situation. I may come in and play it just because I think Baltimore is certainly the better team here, although I’m having a hard time supporting it. It really just comes across on my metrics as an overall product of each team. But I have no official play. I may come in with Baltimore if the line goes down far enough, if it comes down to four again, but I’m not sure yet. I want to know more information.
Scott:
Hey, I’ll just add to that too. Big Ben, I think most people know he’s got a very low air yards per attempt, to your guys’ point, throwing 50 times for like three yards, right? And I was watching the Manning Cast on Monday night, and Peyton and Eli were serious but joking, but obviously very serious that Ben’s favorite play is the two yard out, right? And they reference it many times. That’s all he is throwing, is just two yards down the field on the sideline, and even if the yard’s successful, takes forever to get there, so it helps support the under a little bit as well.
Matt:
Let’s stay in the AFC north guys and get to perhaps our quickest game breakdown of this show, because frankly, anybody out there has a guest that’s just as good as ours when it comes to the Bengals at the Browns. Cleveland currently laying six. Another total of a low number, 38. Chris, any thoughts on Cincinnati at Cleveland?
Chris:
Yeah. I’m hoping this line keeps on going up because this is one of these seesaw games where I was supposed to take Cleveland plus the three and I really couldn’t 100% get behind it. And yeah, I missed the line move. Oh well, but I was listening to an interview with the Chicago or Cleveland beat writer this morning, and Cleveland’s not playing anybody. I don’t understand how they could even be laying six points here. So, I’m definitely going to be considering Cincinnati. Now, we know Burrow’s going to be sitting and they’re going to be sitting some other starters, and as I’ve said the entire season, Cincinnati doesn’t have the depth that they would like to have, so I’m curious about who’s going to come in and cover for them. But this just seems like a perfect spot to just take the points. I mean, both teams seem to be putting their teams to get with pixie sticks or paper mache, so when in doubt, take the points.
Matt:
Yep. Not much to add on my end. This has the feel of a preseason game, and I guess with this low of a total, if the number does continue to trickle up, then I could only look the Browns with you, Chris. But nothing for me for now. Scott, how about you?
Scott:
No opinion. I’ll just add to what Chris said, and he said, especially as it applied to the lines a lot this year, the quarterback for Cincinnati is going to be Brandon Allen. Well, who’s Brandon Allen? He’s the guy that played quarterback for the Bengals last year when Bro got hurt. He’s got plenty of experience. So, this is not a pre-season fourth on the depth chart type quarterback, it’s a guy who at least can operate and function a little bit, especially if Cleveland’s not going all out with some of their starters on the defensive side, so I think that’s a good thing to remember as well. It’d be Bengal or nothing for me, but I’m not getting involved in this one.
Chris:
Yeah. Allen threw over 350 yards in a game last season, if I’m not mistaken.
Scott:
Yeah. He’s got experience, right, there’s no question about that.
Chris:
Yep.
Matt:
That’ll take us to the end of the early window on Sunday. We’ll call a quick time out as a friendly reminder to the YouTube audience. Give us a thumbs up, subscribe to the channel, jump in that chat.
Matt:
And with that, we will proceed to the late window on Sunday, kicking off that window with the Patriots at the Dolphins. New England currently laying six and a half at BetUS, total of 40. Scott, you and I talked about this one on Tuesday when we could take the Dolphins plus seven. Any thoughts now with this number down to six and a half for Miami?
Scott:
I really want the seven so I would make it seven or nothing. I find this interesting, and I realize this isn’t super relative, but we talked about that on Tuesday where New England has just struggled in Miami, and these teams have played a lot the last week or second to last week of the season. And I’m going all the way back to 2000, so I know I’m going back way farther than really matters for this game, but New England, since 2000, they’re just 1-8-1 against the spread in Miami playing in December and just two and eight straight up with only one of those two wins by more than seven points.
Scott:
Now, again, what does that have to do with this game on Sunday and the personnel playing Sunday? Really, absolutely nothing, but there is something there that just causes them to not play well late in the season, whatever it is. I mean, it’s not that hot, although I was looking this morning, it was 79 this morning in Miami, so I guess-
Matt:
With some humidity.
Scott:
Yeah, maybe there’s some heat there, obviously. Tua, I referenced this a couple times. He’s eight and two against the spread in his career in games at home when he’s played at least 40% of the snaps, so they’ve been somewhat functionable when he’s playing. And the only losses there were a two point loss to Atlanta. Obviously, Atlanta’s not New England… and a seven point win versus the Jets when they were favored by 10. So, they’ve done pretty well when he has played at home there. Neither one of these teams have beat great teams. Miami has gotten blown out a few times by some of the better teams, whereas New England hasn’t quite been in that spot.
Scott:
There’s no question New England deserves to be favored here. My numbers don’t support it. I know Chris scoffed at me at that on Tuesday, and I was to look back and get some relevance to some previous lines and whatnot against other teams and look at that, and I’m like, “Shoot, if I use that argument, maybe new England should be favored by a little bit more than what they are, right?” So, I can’t go down that road. I just don’t think New England should be laying seven points on the road or six and a half. I think Miami’s an okay team, they’re not great, but I think they’re okay enough to stay within this number at home.
Matt:
You talk about New England probably not being in a spot where they should be laying seven or perhaps six and a half. The market would appear to agree with you. It seems like this one is headed down to six a lot of places, and I would say where six and a halfs are still available, I would make it a reduced wager on Miami. Still, six would be my absolute floor to consider the Dolphins for anything.
Matt:
But a couple of the highlights to the handicap. I feel like in this spot, the Patriots are being priced just about at their peak after that 50 to 10 demolition of the Jags. And on the flip side, Miami being priced at about the absolute basement bargain deal you could find because they got smoked 34 to three in Tennessee just this past Sunday.
Matt:
So, I think that a team is rarely as good as it looks one week or as bad as it looks one week, and that comes head to head in this matchup. And I also think there’s the element of a free roll potentially on motivation, which again, can reign supreme in week 18. We know the Dolphins are knocked out of playoff contention, but this is a rivalry game for them. They have a chance to finish with a winning record. And the Patriots only have a chance to win the division if the Bills somehow blow it against the Jets. And there’s not much of a chance, but I feel like a non-zero chance that Buffalo is up by three scores pretty early on New York, and if this game’s pretty close, Belichick might just call off the dogs. So, that’s also a possible free roll on Miami here.
Matt:
Chris, I know that you’re not looking at the Dolphins with Scott and I, you have a bet going the other way, but explain to us how it’s not necessarily going head to head with the numbers that Scott and I have in pocket.
Chris:
Oh, I’m going head to head privately, but I laid less than six, and I think the six is an important number. But, Scott, you’re not on your own island. I heard a lot of other people at this line is supposed to be a lot lower than it is. And I’m not an idiot, I understand that New England has had some difficulty in Miami, but for some reason I want to think that that’s beginning of the year type bus stuff. Two years ago, they came in there and they beat Miami 43 to nothing. So, the overall metrics between these two teams are not even remotely close. I mean, it’s like night and day. And sure, you have your power numbers, Scott, and I’ve heard other people in line with you, but I don’t see it anywhere close to that.
Chris:
Now, the situation favors Miami pretty heavily because New England doesn’t have to win by margin, they don’t have to have the game, but Belichick traditionally shows up for these. He doesn’t pack it in for these types of games where he can pack it in. And while I do believe that Miami’s going to show up and try to get above 500 for Flores, I’m not sure they’re equipped to be able to do it even if they want to. If New England comes to play, I believe that they’re certainly better than six points in this team. So, I realize it’s going to be hot weather, and for the reasons I said before, it’s a tough spot, but you know what, I do okay in these spots and it’s just one game if I lose. What I really like is I can’t find anybody else that likes New England. After I bet this, I had a little bit of better’s remorse, and now I’m starting to really like New England because I go from show to show, to prognosticator to prognosticator, I’m on my own island, so welcome to Chris’s island of Patriots here.
Matt:
I’d say population of two, because your buddy R.J. Bell also made a big case for the Patriots, so it’s two of you.
Chris:
I forgot about that
Matt:
I’ll give you that.
Chris:
Yeah.
Scott:
Hey, I’ll say this. If Tua doesn’t turn the ball over, I think Miami has an outstanding chance to cover this game, but that’s a big, big, big if, and he’s been prone to do that lately. And if he does turn it over, then Chris, you’re going to be on that island, you’re going to be enjoying that island because New England’s probably going to cover.
Scott:
And the funny thing is, looking at New England games here, they’ve played really good teams and there’s that profile, they’ve played really bad teams that they’ve blown out, and then here sits Miami in the middle of all that, so it’s hard to get a gauge just how well they’ll play against them in terms of trying to cover this spread. That’s why the spread’s where it’s at, I guess.
Matt:
Chris, for show purposes, you have a play on this one, I believe a teaser involving the Patriots. Is that correct?
Chris:
Yeah, I threw it in a teaser with the Arizona Cardinals, which I guess we’ll get to later, right?
Matt:
Yeah. That’s a few games down the board, so we’ll inch our way in that direction. Again, staying in the same division here, talking Jets-Bills in the other AFC east game. Buffalo, a whopping 16 and half point road favorite, total 41. Chris, any expectations for this one?
Chris:
I’m showing that the line should actually be higher, that there’s a little bit of value in it, but there’s just no way I’m touching that game. I think Buffalo has to preserve their health going into the playoffs and there’s no need for them to win at margin at this point. And the Jets do show some spunk every now and then so it’s just not even worth considering, quite frankly.
Matt:
Yep. I’m with you there. At face value, it seems like it could be a name your score kind of game, but we saw the Bills in that spot last week and they were trailing at halftime, and to the Jets’ credit, it seemed like they were on the raw end of that equation last week, and they were hanging tough with Tampa Bay. So, not sure we can just assume it’s a name your score opportunity for Buffalo, especially considering the need for margin versus the need for rest, knowing that the Bills are looking at a game on wild card weekend with the one seed out of their graph at this point. So, a pass for me as well.
Matt:
Scott, what are you thinking? Generally, it looks like it could be a pretty good spot for Buffalo, but there’s also those unique week 18 considerations to account for as well.
Scott:
Yeah, it’s week 18, and there’s supposed to be a lot of win there, which might be one of the reasons that this total’s been bet down a little bit. I made the number about where it’s at, from a side perspective. I’m showing the total, quite frankly, should be higher. I’d love to play the over, but you got a whole bunch of wins so that’s a dangerous proposition. I think the win’s 20 to 30 miles, and once we get over 20, they start to have an impact on a game somewhat worth taking notice to.
Scott:
Looking at Buffalo here. The Jets have played a little bit better offensively lately. I still rate them as a pretty bad offensive team as a whole, and Buffalo’s allowed 17 or less in nine of the 10 games they played against bad offenses this year. So, there’s a chance here. They could hold the Jets to 17 or less, they beat them in… whatever that was… halfway through the season, 45 to 17 in New York. It took Buffalo over the team in total points. And when Buffalo has played these bad defenses, they’ve scored 43 against Washington, 40 against Houston, 45 against the Jets, 29 last week against Atlanta. There was some weather in that game as well.
Scott:
So, Buffalo, in perfect situations, should get into the thirties, maybe not give up more than 17, but 17’s a lot. They don’t have to play hard the whole game. If there wasn’t the win, I would consider Buffalo over on the team total, because I think they’ll play hard enough to get a separation, assuming they can, and then if they shut it down with a big lead, the Jets obviously can get some points at the end. But the win’s enough to scare me off of this game, so I’m not going to make any play in this game.
Matt:
The wins, not looking like too much of a concern, Scott, in the next game we’ll get to where both you and I are locked in on a bet, and that would be the Bucks hosting the Panthers. Tampa Bay currently up to nine and a half at even money when we look at the spread at BetUS, total 41 and a half. But Scott, I’ll toss it to you first to break down a look at a side in the first half in this matchup.
Scott:
Yeah. I’ve got out a lot of value in this game, and I think, Matt, you said the look headline in this game was something in the mid double digits, and Tampa needs this game. They need this game. They have a chance for the number two seed, which is a very valuable seeding because it gives them an extra home game, and they need the Rams to lose, and the Rams could certainly lose this week to San Francisco. So, this is a very live situation for Tampa Bay. And I think they’ll beat Carolina and should be Carolina if you’re getting full effort. Since Brady got there as a home favorite versus non playoff teams, they’ve destroyed these teams, including Carolina last year, 31 to 17. They’re eight-no straight up, not counting New Orleans, which could be a playoff team. That was obviously a bad game for them. And the seven of those eight wins were by 12 or more points. So, I think they have a chance to win by distance.
Scott:
Now, they are missing a lot of defensive players, and that seemed to show up last week, missing some offensive players as well. I think Evans is going to give it a go. We know the Antonio Brown fiasco is gone. So, I think the safest play here is probably the minus four and a half or minus five points in the first half, because you’re going to get an effort. Arians has said he’d like to pull starters once they get a sizable lead. And as I said earlier, he also said though, “But you can only pull so many starters.” But I have to believe if one guy’s going to get pulled, it’s probably Brady, if they do get a sizable lead, so I don’t want be worried at the end of the fourth quarter, because they got nobody in there and Carolina’s getting a backdoor score. So, I feel a little bit better on the first half, that they can get a sizable lead to cover the number in the first half, so that’s where I’ll make my play.
Matt:
Yep. And not to rat anybody out in terms of who’s copying whom, I wanted to let you go first, Scott. I did have this on our pitch sheet first, so I’ll take some credit for that. Of course, I’ll just take the credit if this bet wins, if it loses, then Scott, it’s all on you. But in all seriousness… Oh, go ahead.
Scott:
Well, hey, you had it on the sheet. Like I said, there’s a lot of value on Tampa Bay, but when I saw that on the sheet, I’m like, “That’s a pretty damn smart bet, I think,” because I think they’re going to win, you just don’t know how in the back end of the game, what’s going to happen. So, thank you for the pick.
Matt:
Yeah. Well, I will take that compliment but also relay some of the credit to professional better known as Tommy The Hitman. I was speaking with him yesterday and he brought up the point that under normal circumstances, if we assume the Bucks are playing their starters for the full game in this one, the first half line would be around seven. And I know that the full game line is a little bit lower here because we can assume the Bucks won’t be playing their starters the entire game, but it sounds like The Hitman has some pretty solid news indicating that at least for the first half, we will see the Buck starters, and that means that at four and a half or even five, we’re just getting pure value on the Bucks in the first half year. So, I will take it at that, locking the Bucks’ first half minus four and a half for show purposes. And Chris, when it comes to this matchup, what are you looking for?
Chris:
Oh, I’m looking for consistency from Carolina.
Matt:
Good luck.
Chris:
If you think they’re going to win the game, then they’re going to cover the spread. If you think that they’re going to lose the game, they’re not going to cover the spread. So, every game they played this season has matched. They’ve either won both or lost both. So, seven in a row, though, with L’s. So, they’re fading fast. I’m not sure Rhule is going to last until next season, quite frankly. Again, another possibility for Wilson to end up.
Chris:
But I would probably favor what you guys are doing with the first half, just paying a little bit of a tax on it somewhat, but I got a funny feeling on this game. I have Tampa Bay futures to win the conference and the wheels just seem to be legitimately off the bus with them, and I’m wondering whether there’s more wrong with that team than we realize, frankly, and other people are starting to say the same thing, since I started thinking it. So, just a little bit of a concern there. And I would’ve thought that they would might have been a good teaser option if they had gone just a little bit lower, but hope you guys win your first half bet. I’m going to sit that one out though.
Scott:
Hey, Chris, I would say I think there’s legitimate concerns. The thing that I get a little bit more comfortable on… I think it was just two weeks ago, Tampa played them and beat them 32-6, and I think Tampa, two weeks ago, had a fair amount of concerns as well. So, that’s one reason I’m thinking like, okay, they’re still coming to this game with some concerns, maybe a few more concerns this week than they had two weeks ago, and they definitely took care of business then, and so that’s the other reason I get a little bit more comfortable with some of those same concerns you have.
Matt:
Well, 269 regular season games down, guys, three to go for the three of us. Next up, we will once again stay in the same division, an NFC south matchup between the Saints and the Falcons. New Orleans currently laying three and a half on the road. Total of 40. Chris, you’re on a side in this one. Why don’t you let us hear about it?
Chris:
Well, I’d love to tell you about it. Anyway. I’ve heard nobody the entire week say anything positive about New Orleans. It’s been one way all week long with Atlanta, Atlanta, Atlanta, and I’m surprised that this line has gone below four. I don’t think it’ll hit three. Oh, actually it’s bounced up since we started the show, so yeah, I think we saw bottom at the three and a half.
Chris:
I like the Saints here. They’re the much better team. They’re getting a little bit healthier, they’re getting linemen back, they’re getting people on defense back. They need to win this game to get into the playoffs, and I believe that they’re not one of those must win, must lose teams per se, because boy, they face some real difficulties on the injury front. Their failings have been more COVID and injury than lack of talent, so I don’t put them in that must win, must lose type category.
Chris:
Atlanta has been garbage on my charts. I actually have an Atlanta over seven and a half wins ticket, I just realized. That’ll tell you what I think about Atlanta, that I don’t even think I can win that bet. So, I’m going to go with New Orleans here. I think that they can win this out. I just don’t think Atlanta has enough form.
Matt:
To your point about that Falcons regular season win total, it’s going to be decided in this matchup. A lot of betters, probably in a similar spot with some futures that will be determined on Sunday. How do you account for your future’s exposure in terms of how you let that inform your week 18 betting decisions, if at all?
Chris:
It doesn’t affect my decisions, it might just affect what I would bet, depending on particular situations. This is the only future that I have that’s open on it, so I don’t think it’s going to win, but I might bet just a little bit less on the Saints technically just because I have it covered if they lose. Did I get that right?
Matt:
Yeah. I think that, yeah, that makes sense.
Chris:
I’m thinking about it on the fly. But I might alter how much I bet a little bit. It’s not going to change my decision on who’s going to win or lose.
Matt:
Cool. Yeah. And I didn’t mean just whether or not you bet something, but I think the wager amount, part of the betting decision process to me, so that answer totally makes sense. Know you’re thinking it through on the fly. My job here, I guess, is to keep you on your toes, so mission accomplished in that case.
Matt:
And this is a game, Chris, where I’m not looking to go head to head with you per se, I’m just waiting to see any sort of must win tax applied to the Saints. I mean, I’m surprised that this line has come down crossing the four to three and a half at any point this week. When it was sitting four and a half, I decided I was going to wait on the Falcons. Maybe I was greedy but I thought I might see at least a six, and that is sounding like a bit of a pipe dream at this point. So, I could only look at the Falcons at this point, and that’s just maybe how my mind is conditioned with these fading the must win narrative kinds of bets over of the years. You brought up some good points with the Saints.
Matt:
I’m just going to sit back at this point and see if we do get that public wave of money on the Saints that pushes us up to six. Unlikely, but if that’s the case, there’s a lot of room for both of us to still win our bets, so it wouldn’t necessarily be going head to head, but I’m just going to sit back and wait to see if this number gets big enough for me to jump in on the Falcons.
Matt:
Scott, what’s your outlook on this matchup?
Chris:
I do want to interrupt just quickly, but Jackson will not play for Baltimore, Not entirely unexpected, but that’s going to lower the total and it’s going to lower the spread to three, three and a half.
Scott:
That’s a good point, that total. And maybe that’s why that total started dropping a little bit earlier this morning as well. Also, see Shaq Barrett, Jason Pierre-Paul, and Ronald Jones out for Tampa Bay. Kind of expected that as well, but Barrett and Pierre-Paul were out last week as well.
Scott:
On the New Orleans game, Matt, I want to play Atlanta, but man, this is a team that’s one of the worst defenses in the league, one of the worst offenses in the league, and here they sit at home getting three and a half, four points. To Chris’s point, the Saints are a better team, but one of the keys for me on this that I’ll be watching for… And I wanted to play the under too. It’s just a low total, and again, when you got such a bad defense like Atlanta, it scares me a little bit to go under a total of 40. But Armstead, the left tackle, and Ramczyk, the right tackle, they’re questionable, they missed a whole bunch of games here recently. In the last two weeks, or I should say last four games without these guys, they’ve scored 17, 9, 3, and 18 points. They’re not scoring a lot of points. They haven’t played maybe quite as bad a defense as they’re going to play in Atlanta. Atlanta’s played them close at home.
Scott:
And the thing with Atlanta this year, they’ve been blown out by really good teams, but here’s their margin of victory or defeat against non playoff teams. The end story here will be the Saints are in the middle of all this, but plus three, minus four, plus seven, plus two, plus seven, plus eight, plus four, plus two, oh, by the way, 27, 25 against the Saints in New Orleans, right, when all this started to happen to the Saints. So, they’re staying very, very competitive against the bad teams. The Saints aren’t that bad, but they’re also not as good as the teams that have blown Atlanta out. It puts you in the middle range here.
Scott:
If these tackles play for the Saints, then there’s no way I would even play Atlanta. If they don’t play, this game starts to get a little bit closer and maybe I’ll get enough balls to play the under as well, because Atlanta has played them close and played them fairly low scoring here over the years as well. There’s been a couple games that have been a little bit higher scoring, but for the most part, they’ve been lower scoring games between these two here as well.
Matt:
Yeah. A couple of leans there for you Scott, both side and total, and we do have a bet from you in the next game we’ll get to, that being Seattle at Arizona. The Cardinals currently laying seven at even money, total 48. Scott, tell us where you’re invested in this one.
Scott:
Yeah, we got a couple things here. Bobby Wagner got hurt last week. They haven’t ruled him out yet. Quite frankly, I’d be shocked if he plays. The other one though, that I’m paying more attention to is Carlos Dunlap. I’d really like to see him play for Seattle. He’s an edge rusher and he’s been pretty effective. But this is more or less a play against Arizona. Since Kyler Murray got there, which I think he arrived in 2019, Arizona spawn 10 against the spread as a home favorite, and they’ve now played… And I realize what I’m about to say here, Murray hasn’t played every game, because he has been hurt in a few games, but Arizona’s played 23 home games since Kyler Murray arrived. They’ve only won three of those 23 games by more than seven points. They don’t beat anyone by margin. And I don’t really love their offense, they don’t have Hopkins, which kind of explains, I think in some ways… Again, I’m just not a huge fan of this offense as a whole, and that’s maybe why they’re not beating teams by margin.
Scott:
I’ve got value on Seattle in this game. I do think Seattle will come and play. Seattle has blown out the bad teams like they did last week. They’ve been okay in some instances against good teams. Not great, obviously. So, can they hang within seven points here? I think they potentially can because I just don’t have a ton of respect for Arizona, and again, historically they have just not blown anybody out. For show purposes, we’ve made it a bet today, but I’d like to make sure that Dunlap plays as well. I think that’s a key important piece for Seattle as well. But Russell Wilson’s going to play hard, I got to believe Metcalf plays hard, Lockett’s going to play hard. I think Seattle’s going to play hard. I’m not worried about Seattle tanking it after they got that win at home last week.
Matt:
Yeah. Seattle’s effort has been a moving target for me to try to pin down. I will not be surprised at all either if they play hard, but that does give me some pause with how much of a [inaudible 00:53:21] high team they’ve been in recent weeks. But for Arizona, to your point, Scott, we’d be paying a premium to look their way. Nothing affecting them this week but it looks like J.J. Watt may be on track to return at a certain point in the playoffs if they have a bit of a run in them. So, the Cardinals defense might be in line for a meaningful step up a bit down the road. As far as this game’s concerned, nothing I can put my money on. Chris, how about you?
Chris:
I think I’m actually impressed with the effort that Seattle’s made the last couple of weeks. I think I mentioned that I expected them basically to fold up shop. What was the point? So, a little surprising there. Scott referenced they put together quite a little bit of a decent offense all of a sudden, after starting the season sputtering on fumes, so to speak.
Chris:
I think Arizona is the better team here by quite a bit. And while Seattle’s been doing well lately, I think it does worry me with this Arizona effort because they have just folded like paper napkins the last couple of seasons in the second half. But Kingsbury is saying the right things today, they’re not resting any players, they’re going to play hard, they’re going to play a full game, and I’m asking them to just to win the game basically, to complete my teaser. I actually have them where they would be playable at minus six, but I’m making some adjustments based on recent Seattle performance where they have been playing pretty darn well. And as we’ve mentioned all year long, you have to be willing to pivot. You can’t fall in love with whatever your perspectives are and you have to bank adjustments on the fly. So, I give Seattle credit, they’re making the effort, but I still think Arizona should have enough to win this game.
Matt:
Yeah. And if they do just win that game outright, that’s all you’re asking as part of this teaser essentially, so that could leave you still in a good spot even if Seattle goes ahead and covers.
Matt:
One game to go, guys, for week 18, and that takes us to Sunday Night Football, the Chargers at the Raiders. Chargers laying three, total, 49 and a half. Chris, I know you and Scott spoke to Raiders on Tuesday show, but I’m going to go ahead and give you about 30 seconds to, one last time this season, speak to how overrated the Chargers are. And as you do that, I’ve got to protect myself emotionally. I’m going to disappear for about 30 seconds and go grab a beer. So Chris, take it away and tell us just how overrated these chargers are.
Chris:
You’re just putting in your Chargers PJs again, aren’t you? I have these teams rated equally. I have the Chargers one notch higher. And this is another game where I’m just loving it. Every show, every person I hear it’s Chargers, Chargers, Chargers, and I love to hear that. I really do. I want to hear everybody say they like the Chargers this week, because I think we know if you’re an experienced football better, what happens in those situations. The line is holding firm at three. I don’t see a reason why the Chargers should be favored by a full field goal. The Raiders have shown some spunk lately, and there’s always a team or two that makes the playoffs that you just sit there and say, “How the hell did that team make it in the playoffs?” And when you really look at the criteria here, the Raiders fit perfectly. I mean, we left them for dead.
Chris:
They came back, they’ve won three games in a row, the Chargers have lost two out of their last three games, and they’re just scary. The Chargers are just scary. They’ve got Herbert, and he’s a miracle worker, but their defense sucks. And yeah, the Raiders haven’t been scoring many lately, but they’re supposed to get Waller back this week. So, I think it’s going to be a difficult game, I don’t think it’s going to be an easy win for either team, and I think when in doubt, you take the points in this situation. I can’t believe the home team’s getting them.
Matt:
Right. Scott, is he done yet? Is it okay if I jump in for a sec?
Scott:
Yeah. And by the way, Chris, a lot of times operates off his phone and stuff so he may not even see you in your Charger gear right now. I don’t know.
Chris:
No, I see you. I see you.
Scott:
All right. All right.
Matt:
One thing you were not quite correct on, changing into the Chargers’ PJs. Nope. I’ve just got them here for some moral support, but I am wearing proper pants today and a lot of other proper Chargers gear, of course.
Matt:
Man, Chris, I feel like you’re the Energizer bunny whenever I give you a chance to talk about how overrated the Chargers are, and while I love the enthusiasm, I wasn’t lying. I did grab a beer as well. It is called, Everything’s Fine. The green screen’s messing this up a bit, but it’s called Everything’s Fine, a hoppy pilsner by my favorite brewery, Green Cheek Beer Company. And tying that in with this game, to all other seven Chargers stands out there in existence, hearing Chris talk one last time about how overrated they are, I feel like everything still is fine, to an extent. I mean, everything this team wants to accomplish, still possible, still right out there for the taking in front of them, and to me, that starts with the secondary.
Matt:
Last week for the first time since week one, the full starting healthy, played the complete game and finished that game healthy. And I know across town in LA, we’ve got King James for the Lakers, and in the most complimentary way, I think we can think of Derwin James as a Queen James of sorts, and the way that Brandon Staley uses his defense like a chessboard. And of course, the queen, the piece that makes that all go, Derwin James just being disruptive at all three levels of the defense and that healthy secondary really affecting what the entire unit can do. And on the other side of the ball, guys, Corey Linsley, a big piece of that revamp Chargers offensive line, and it looks like he was questionable and that he’s trending toward playing. I think that bodes well for them.
Matt:
This seems basically at full strength. I mean, unless something has changed very recently, they are down to zero players on the COVID list. And that is a bit of a departure for the Raiders who recently got the benefit of the Browns one. They were decimated by COVID, getting Carson Wentz after he missed a week of prep with COVID. So, I would say that in some way or another here, maybe more of a life plus EV bet than a betting plus EV bet, I will be in play on the Chargers here. I’m going to wait to see if that three can soften up. I don’t think those two and a halfs are going to return, but I think I might get a better number on the Chargers by waiting just a bit here.
Matt:
That said, Scott, I do want to pump the brakes a bit and say, as much as I’m a fan, not so fast to everybody who’s already penciling in their lines for Chiefs hosting the Chargers on wild card weekend without giving any thought to the Raiders’ odds of making the postseason. The Chargers, to make the playoffs, will have to take care of business, and there’s still a very real possibility that it could be the Raiders, as much as that would depress me.
Scott:
Yeah. Go ahead, Chris.
Chris:
Yeah. The Raiders actually can lose and make the playoffs, so they’re in better shape than the Chargers here. Go ahead, Scott.
Scott:
The Raiders aren’t or I should say the Chargers are going to have to take care of business on the road. To Chris’s point, they do bring a pretty bad defense. Yes, I know they’ve had some injuries there, some COVID issues. It still has not been a very good defense this year. I don’t have a lot to say here other than my numbers make this about a point and a half, so there’s some value here. We’re sitting at a key number, obviously. If this went to three and a half, that would be golden as well, especially making about one and a half. Hopefully, they get Waller back. That’s a key part of this, I think, and hopefully he’s effective. We’ll see. It’s just hard to lay points on the road with a defense that I still do not think is that good
Scott:
And again, I know this doesn’t matter a lot, but they’ve only won one game by more than three points the last eight times they played the Raiders on the road, and I think last year was 30 to 27. They won it by three, I believe. So, they don’t have a great history of have going on the road here to Oakland or Las Vegas and winning and winning by margin against this team.
Scott:
I like Derek Carr as a leader. Is he Justin Herbert? No. I think he’s a very good leader though. Raiders have some pass rushing capability. We’ll see. I think there’s a little bit of value in the Raiders here. I’ll take them. I do worry a little bit about the Raiders offense, it hasn’t been great. Showed up a little bit last week. They’re starting to get something from Zay Jones a little bit here, and again, hopefully, Waller comes back because that is a big piece of that. But I’m going to take the value and grab the points on a key number with the Raiders and we will see what happens.
Chris:
This game’s going to make sense if the Raiders win. People are going to say, “God, I should have known better. They came in, a new coach, they’re on a three-game winning streak, they’re playing at home. What the hell was I thinking giving points to them?” If they win the game, you’re going to sit there and go, “It was there. Why didn’t I see it?”
Scott:
And if they get blown out, it’s going to be, “Here are the Raiders again,” right? “They can’t do it right.”
Chris:
Exactly.
Scott:
You think about it like, which one of these two teams… and I don’t know the answer to this… has a better profile history of being able to win this game? They both fall in the same bucket and it’s not a good bucket, right.
Matt:
Are you trying to say, Scott, that the Chargers have ever disappointed their fans? Is that what you’re saying here?
Scott:
Well, there’s one time a few years ago I think, maybe.
Matt:
I don’t know.
Scott:
Remember when they got the interception against Brady back in like 2005-
Matt:
Gave it right back.
Scott:
… and [crosstalk 01:03:27]? That’s the one time, I think.
Chris:
Who’s the pressure on in this game? The pressure’s not on the Raiders, I’ll tell you that.
Scott:
They’ve had plenty of pressure all through the year, or adversity is probably maybe the better word, right?
Chris:
It’s the Raiders against the world. Nobody expects anything from them. They’re just criminals, and drunk drivers, and all kinds of bad things happen to them, and they lose their coach, they’ve been left for dead. It’s a feel good story for them to win this game. It’s probably scripted. You know how it’s fixed. I’m completely joking about that.
Matt:
Yeah. Well, I will acknowledge as much as I have my Chargers fan hat, I guess, Chargers advisor hat on for this one. It’s a very real possibility the Raiders could pull this out, so both teams need to plan to bring their A game if they want to play beyond this Sunday, although yeah, I will be going head to head with you guys in some form.
Matt:
And beyond the side, you guys, we have one question from the live chat. Mr. Fun Monk asking about a look at the under in this game. And Scott, with a total of 49 and a half, I’ve actually heard some people talking about the over, thinking this total might go up a bit, maybe approach 51. Do you have any indication as to where this total’s headed?
Scott:
Yeah. Thanks for the question, and I was going to ask Chris where he… I know he is not necessarily a totals guy, but I wanted to get his opinion on too. Because we were talking before the show, Matt, I make the number about 52 in this game, but I’m hesitant to go over. The Raiders are a little bit of a slower playing team, kind of grind it out sometimes, hit a few big plays here and there. I was on the under in the first time these guys played. I think it was a Monday night, week three or four or something, that was a 28-14 game. It started out very slow, then I thought I was going to lose it, and then I think it crashed at the end again to finish fairly well under the total. I think that total was about 50, 51, 52 in that game, so pretty similar where we are now, if I remember right.
Scott:
So, my numbers stay a little bit higher. The Chargers certainly capable of scoring points here. And against the type of defense they’re going to face on Sunday night, they have scored some points this year, so I’m very open to that.
Scott:
From an over standpoint, as I said earlier, I worry a little bit about the Raiders being able to score, although they are playing a defense that I don’t think it’s a great defense. So, it’s a long-winded answer to not really give you an answer, I apologize, but the numbers say a little bit over, but it seems like a high number. And average points scored in a league this year, 45, 46 points, so it’s been a lower scoring league, so this becomes even a little bit higher number than what we’re seeing for totals these days. So, I don’t no. Chris, I mean, do you have any thoughts on this total?
Chris:
Yeah. I think the Raiders are going to have some difficulty. Herbert’s in the top of the league on first down success rate, and the Raiders are actually near the bottom on that, so that’s going to pick up the pace on this game a little bit. And with Waller back in the lineup, that’s going to give some more weapons and some more options for Carr, so to speak.
Chris:
I think that the first time they played each other, they played where he was throwing the ball longer, I think he had more long range weapons, and I think they won’t be doing that again. I think it’s going to be more shorter options for the Raiders. But I think it’s quite possibly an over. The only way I would bet this game would actually probably be over, because I think the Raiders are going to give up some points, but I think they’re going to be able to score too.
Matt:
Should be a fun one to watch. What a proper way to wrap up the regular season for both the NFL and our breakdowns on this show. But before we sign off, we’ve got some best bets to get to for week 18, so let’s pull up a full screen graphic where we will see some consensus. Both Scott and I aligned on a couple bets. We took the Dolphins plus seven on our Tuesday show and I would still reckon and them for a reduced amount at the current number. Scott and I also, on the Bucks in the first half, minus four and a half. Consider that good up to five and a half. Chris and Scott also aligned on the Raiders’ plus three. I will probably be going head to head there at some point. Beyond that, Chris, why don’t you run us down your week 18 card and let us know if you have a favorite bet on the board.
Chris:
I’m screwed. Colin Cowherd just put the Vegas on his blazing five.
Matt:
There we go.
Chris:
And then he has Miami also for you guys. He likes your Miami.
Matt:
Oh, [crosstalk 01:08:13] seven.
Chris:
And he likes the Falcons. Anyway, yeah. What is my board? I don’t know what my board is. I’ve got the New England with a teaser with Arizona, which I like that one a lot.
Matt:
San Fran plus four in Vegas, plus three, as well as the Saints, minus three and a half.
Chris:
Yeah. Actually, San Francisco is my least favorite out of that group, but they may do fine. I mean, I don’t bet something if I don’t think that they’re going to win. But I like my card because everybody else hates it, quite frankly. And I know it sounds stupid, but I’ve been doing this for years and in years, and when everybody is against me, I somehow do okay. I do, I really do. And it’s not that common that that happens, that everybody’s against me. So, I like the card this week and I might add a handful more, a couple more plays.
Matt:
Yeah. That reminds me, Chris, as you outlined the thought process for liking your card when everybody else hates it, and one of my favorite quotes of the season from you, “The more nervous I am, the better I usually do.” So, being willing to go out on a limb can be one of the most rewarding things at times for betters with the intestinal fortitude to do so.
Matt:
I haven’t gone out on too many limbs yet this week, taking Miami plus seven on Tuesday, as well as locking in the Bucks and the first half on today’s show. That Tampa Bay look, currently my favorite bet on the board. Although I’m keeping a close eye on that Falcons line, if it trickles up, I’m hoping to see six, maybe a pipe dream, but going to be monitoring that. Also, that Niners line, not interested at the moment, but when Lance is confirmed, we might see that trickle up a bit further, so if I can see any more value on that San Francisco number, possibly getting in play there, also on the lookout, as I had just mentioned, for the best number I can get. So, I go head to head with Chris and Scott on the Chargers against the Raiders.
Matt:
Scott, a pretty full card for you. Why don’t you run it down for us and isolate a best bet?
Scott:
Yeah. We took a great number on Tuesday with Chicago plus three, and you can now get that at five and a half or six, but I still like it at three and I would take it at five and a half or six, for sure, especially with Andy Dalton starting. I feel a little bit better with Dalton, quite frankly, than Justin Fields. We got Vegas and Miami, as you guys mentioned. Pit-Baltimore, under 41 and a half. I like that a lot. These two teams have played very close games. And as the Manning brothers said on Monday night, Ben’s favorite pass is a two yard out, which means they aren’t moving down the field very fast at all. The favorite bet here is probably Tampa Bay in the first half, minus four and a half. I do expect them to be able to win this game, it’s just a question of how long they play their starters. Pretty confident they’ll play those for the majority of the first half and into the second half.
Scott:
And then Seattle, plus sevens, to play against Arizona. They just have not won by margin ever since Kingsbury and Kyler Murray got to town, so if we get a good effort out of Seattle and we get Carlos Dunlap playing, I think Seattle can hang close in this game as well.
Matt:
And that’s a wrap for the regular season, everybody. Whether you’ve been with us all season, you’re checking us out for the first time today, or anywhere in between, thank you once again for tuning in. Make sure to give us a thumbs up and subscribe on your way out the door, and best of luck with your week 18 action.
Matt:
We’ll be back live early next week for our look at the first ever super wild card weekend in the NFL. That’ll be Tuesday at 5:30 PM Eastern, 2:30 Pacific. Hopefully, Chris gets his wish with the Chargers playoff game. If so, you can bet we’ll be here to break it all down. And on that note, we will see you all right back here on Tuesday at BetUS, where the game begins.
