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T.J. Rives:

Well, hello there and welcome back to the BetUS NFL Show. Great to be back with you. I am T.J. Rives. We have done well as we come to you live on Thursday in the 1:00 PM Eastern Time hour. Scott Kellen and Chris Farley are with me. Good to be back with you guys. Good to have you back. I like to joke that I’m in the state of Florida, although some do think I’m in the state of confusion. I’m in the state of Florida. We have survived Hurricane/Tropical Storm Nicole, so I’m able to be with you live. I wouldn’t miss this show. I got to be here with my guys. Scott Kellen, good to have you back. We missed you last week. Good to have you on the show. We’re ready to get some insight and some advice.

Scott Kellen:

Good to be here, TJ. I’m excited for you going to Germany. It sounds like a great trip.

T.J. Rives:

Yeah, we’re headed off there right after this show is done later on Thursday afternoon depending on when you’re watching as the Buccaneers traveling to Germany to play the Seattle Seahawks traveling to Munich, the first ever NFL game, pre-season or regular season to be played in Germany. We’re going to talk about that game in a couple of moments. Chris Farley, how you feeling as we get in here for another show to mix it up?

Chris Farley:

I’m feeling great. As week 10 we’re officially in the second half of the season. TJ, I feel you’re such a pro that even if the hurricane was blowing through your house, you would put on a parka, you’d have the umbrella like one of those meteorologists out there still doing the show, so I’m to hear things-

T.J. Rives:

I’d be like Cantore, I would be with the pant legs quivering in the wind and hold the microphone and say, what do you have? +4.5. Yeah, we will try to find a way to make it work. All right, so again, thank you for finding us. If you did so here in our live airing window at one Eastern Time, Thursday’s one Eastern time, you may be seeing us later in the day Thursday or as the weekend goes on, you may also see us in segment form because we go over every game on this show, 14 games I believe, if I miscounted correct me guys. 14 games on the slate this week. You’ll get a preview of all of them. Not necessarily an official play on all of them, but on this show. So get in the live chat, hit the like button, make sure you ask a question.

If you want to ask a question, make sure you’re subscribing and we’re looking forward to going over all of the games here. One other housekeeping item. We’ve got a Turkey scavenger hunt, no laughing, a Turkey scavenger hunt going on betus.com. Look at the description below, in the link below this show. You’ve got five different scavenger hunt items to find and if you do so, you’ve got a chance to win a free Turkey Thanksgiving feast for an entire group, an entire family Turkey decides the whole bet from bet us. So again, go to betus.com and go in the description link down below to find out more. You’ve got to be a BetUS member and we make it easy for you to be a BetUS member right now because you’ve got a $50 free play awaiting you just for signing up on Betus, no other obligation, no other deposit. So go be a BetUS member, get in the Turkey scavenger hunt. Maybe you’re going to be the winner, the first one that comes up with the five that’s drawn at random. You could get the Turkey on us. That’s still a couple weeks away.

Scott Kellen:

They should stuff that Turkey with a couple winning tickets too or something.

T.J. Rives:

Maybe. Whatever you’ve got to do. Especially if you win the feast, you’re going to be in great shape with all your friends, your buds, your family, whatever you’re doing, somebody doesn’t have to cook. We like that. All right, good enough. Let’s get to the records on the show and then we’ll get into the games themselves, including Thursday night football, the Germany game all the way through Monday night. As we can see, the show now has crept above the 500 mark. We see Scott Kellen above 500 mark, Chris right there at it and the guest handicappers as well. So the show doing pretty well. Let’s hope it continues today. A lot of official plays from the handicappers. Let’s get into it. Let’s begin with Thursday night football, shall we? And this is an immediate rematch of a game a couple of weeks ago that ended controversially with the Atlanta Falcons trying to lose the game once, trying to lose the game again in overtime, and yet they still won over the Carolina Panthers.

So tonight they are the road favorite, -2.5. The total is 42 for this matchup on Thursday night football. Let’s begin the show with Scott Kellen. Scott, thoughts here on an immediate rematch after a wild game, Carolina not very good. They got destroyed last week by Cincinnati. Atlanta also lost last week to the Chargers. Any thoughts if no official play, Mr. Kellen?

Scott Kellen:

Yeah, actually a fair amount of thoughts since one, TJ. I did play under 44, numbers crept down now where I would not play it at 42. I will offer this up though, and I feel good about the under, there could be some bad weather, which had nothing to do with the play going under, but we could see some rain, possibly some wind. Wind doesn’t look like it’s going to be too bad with that storm coming through that you felt in Tampa there. But I would say this, if a team takes the ball and drives down the field here to open this game tonight and scores a touchdown and that total in-game goes up to 45 or something, I would look to play under. I think first drives in a game to me are some of the most meaningless drives with the exception that the team that scores more points wins the game here.

So you score seven points, it means something, but all these teams script plays. So sometimes if you’re an under, you’re on the edge of the total’s not right where you want it and all of a sudden a team scores right away, doesn’t mean they’re going to replicate that drive after drive and I think you can get that value back. So that’s the first thing I would look for in this game. I do actually show a little bit of value here with Carolina, but I got a pretty good play that unfortunately goes against Carolina. Just bad teams coming home after a couple losses, a little bit more to that situation, but traditionally they haven’t done well. So it’s enough to keep me off Carolina here. But I’ll say this, Carolina since 2019, which is really, Carolina got really bad at that point going forward, they’ve now been a home dog 15 times.

They’ve only faced three teams that I would consider to be below average teams, but still laying points on the road, I’ll put Atlanta into that category. A few years ago they lost an opening day, 34 to 30 to the Raiders and then this year they beat New Orleans, which fits that category 22 to 14 I believe. And then of course beat your Buccaneers, TJ, 21 to three. And we know Tampa Bay right now is a bit of a blow average team. So the point being when they’ve been a home dog against some teams that aren’t really, really good, they’ve been competitive and they’ve stayed around. So I think there’s a little bit of value here on the under, simply Atlanta runs the ball the second most in the league. I think they will continue to want to run the ball. And I know Atlanta’s defense isn’t great, so it’s always a worrisome that some points can get scored here, but especially if we get any kind of win cooperation here Carolina will probably want to run the ball a little bit as well.

So I think there’s value to the under not as much as there was yesterday. If that endgame goes up a little bit higher, I think we could have some value. I did play the under, I would not recommend it at this number, but possibly endgame slightly into Carolina.

T.J. Rives:

All right, there you go. Chris Farley, they played two weeks ago, Carolina scored a bunch of points and then Carolina absolutely no-showed and got blown out by Cincinnati. I know you do not have an official play. What do you make of the rematch with the Panthers getting the Falcons at home this time?

Chris Farley:

Yeah, just a few things to add here. Normally, as a handicapper, this was three earlier in the weekend, and it was almost automatic. Got to think about the Panthers here at home in a revenge spot. At the same time, I don’t like some of the things that are going on there in Carolina. Wilks just fired two more assistant coaches. That makes four assistant coaches fired since Matt Rhule left the Carolina Panthers. And now at two and seven, solely at the bottom of the NFC South, I just don’t know how motivated the Panthers are going to continue to be all season. There’s some whispers of them maybe still releasing Baker Mayfield, but I don’t know if that frees up some capital or whatever, but there’s just some notions that this is time to maybe explore some things, experiment. And whenever you have a team like that that’s firing coaches on defense after really one bad game…

I know they got walloped by the Bengals last week, but their defense has been pretty good all year, hasn’t been the problem for the Panthers. So I sense some division within their locker room possibly. And you do have a Falcons team who, especially if there’s going to be some weather conditions tonight that favors the run, the Falcons are a team that runs the ball 58% of the time. The Panthers this year have chosen to pass the ball 59% of the time, so it favors the game plan for the Falcons. That defense, even without A.J. Terrell is still playing hard. Probably should have won against the Chargers last week. That crazy play at the end of that game too with the fumble, just some fortunate bounces for the Chargers.

So I would actually lean to the Falcons now that it’s -2.5, but there’s a lot going on in this game and I would still categorize the Atlanta Falcons as a very slightly above average team, so it’s not a team that I can really depend on week to week, so no play here, but I do like Scott’s play on the under, fact that he got that at 44 is a good line. I like it a little bit less where it is now, too.

T.J. Rives:

Quarterback-

Scott Kellen:

TJ.

T.J. Rives:

Yeah, go ahead.

Scott Kellen:

Sorry, just one other point. You mentioned all those scores. They scored 71 points combined last game. I think it was 26 of those points were scored in the last three minutes in overtime, so prior to that they were at 45. So don’t get too hung up in perfect conditions in that dome. Don’t get too hung up on how many points they scored last time.

T.J. Rives:

Good point. And quarterback questions as well, I was going to say, with P.J. Walker having been replaced in the second half after how bad he was in the Bengals game. You mentioned about Baker Mayfield. What are they going to do in this game tonight, especially if it starts to go bad early? Might they go to the bench again? We will see. No official play from the handicaps on Panthers Thursday night hosting the Falcons. Let’s move on, shall we, to Sunday morning U.S. time? Sunday afternoon for the first time ever, the NFL plays in Germany, in Munich, Germany. And again, for Tom Brady and the Buccaneers off a dramatic win over the Rams last week, did they reclaim part of their season here playing a good Seattle team at six and three? That’s off another win, a sweep of Arizona. The Buccaneers laying 2.5 on the true neutral field, on another continent. 44.5 is the total. And let’s begin with Chris Farley. Chris, you’re going to have an official play including a teaser, I believe, on this one for the matchup in Munich.

Chris Farley:

Yeah, me and Scott are going to give our audience here a great way to play on both sides in this game. So Tampa Bay, they finally get a good… Well, I don’t know if I would call that a good win, but you got classic Tom Brady at the end of that game against the Rams. Felt like the Rams are going to win that game, but all Brady needed was one minute. But we got to remember up until that point, the Bucs still only put nine points up on the board. That’s still not an offense I can trust. Something that I’m really concerned about for the Bucs heading into this game, and really for the rest of the season is I believe that they’re on their third string left guard at this point and Brady, he’s not as comfortable. He’s been very good at eluding pressure in the pocket his whole career, but he is also always had a really good left guard.

This Tampa Bay offensive line has been bend don’t break, they don’t get a lot of sacks on Tom Brady, but he’s under pressure a lot and the Seattle Seahawks defense is playing with a lot of confidence. They got five sacks last week against the very elusive Kyler Murray. This is a defense that believes that they are top 10 in the NFL whether the data tells you they are or not. And they’re playing like it most weeks. And even though I’ve been anticipating regression, anticipating regression, waiting for some things that we expect to swing the other way with a team like Seattle maybe negatively regressing and a team like Tampa Bay positively, I don’t think this is the spot necessarily for Tampa Bay in Germany to blow out the Seahawks. Seahawks are going to be competitive in this game. They’ve been consistent all year. Gino Smith, whether we like it or not, he categorically identifies now, if we look at the data, as a top five quarterback in this league. And he continue to throw-

T.J. Rives:

He’s had five games with a QBR rating of 100 or better. Who had that when the season began, to your point?

Chris Farley:

I know. Still leaves the NFL in completion percentage. So I think in the least, I don’t want to take the Seahawks at +2.5 because listen, this Tampa Bay team is talented enough where riding that momentum after that last game, which is sometimes all you need is one good thing to happen for them to bring that momentum and motivation into this game and carry it on through the rest of the season. They’re certainly talented enough, but I think the Seahawks keep this close. So one leg of my two leg Wong teaser is going to be teasing up the Seattle Seahawks 6.5 points to make them a eight point dog in this one, I believe, going into Germany. And from what I hear, there’s a contingent of Seattle Seahawks fans in Germany, so maybe that’s a little extra support there for Seattle.

T.J. Rives:

Well, we’ll see. And again, how many of them could get their hands on tickets? How many Buccaneer fans? I know a lot of Buccaneer fans that’ll be there. How many of them got their hands on tickets versus the international fans? There are a ton of Americans in Germany, a very prominent American Air Force base, Ramstein Air Force Base is about an hour, I think, from Munich. There are a lot of Americans in Germany, we’ll see. They have played NFL Europe minor league games in Germany before. They’re familiar with American football. They did that back in the late 80s, the 90s and the early 2000s. This is the first ever regular season game, obviously. Scott Kellen, you’ve got an official play here. What do you like in this one?

Scott Kellen:

Yeah, and Chris, let’s hope we win both of these, buddy. I’m taking Tampa Bay -2.5. And I love what Seattle’s done. This team, they’re fun to watch. It’s a good team. And like you said, you keep looking for the regression and it’s just not happening. And my numbers are really developed based on player rating models. And obviously coming into the season they rated plenty of these players for the Buccaneers as pretty good, and they’re coming down, they’re coming down, but as Tampa Bay just continues to flounder. And I was on Tampa Bay last week, unfortunately had -3, not the 2.5 And felt unbelievably lucky. The Rams just gave them that game at the end of the game. Credit to Brady making it happen at the end, but they should not have won that game.

But from a Seattle perspective, they really played two good defenses this year. And granted these were the first two games of the season. The Seattle offense just continues to come along and I think this Seattle defense is getting better every week. But remember they scored 17 against Denver and then they followed it up with seven at San Francisco. This will probably be the best defense that they’ve faced since then. Antoine Winfield, full practice yesterday. I’m assuming he comes back. They got the majority of their guys back on defense last week. So I’m hoping that we’re going to see a little bit of a better defense here. My biggest problem with Tampa and, TJ, maybe you can ask this question when you have a 14-hour flight or whatever it is over there, why do they keep running the ball on first downs, drive, after drive, after drive? It is crushing them.

There’s no play action out of that at all and I think that’s just killing this offense and they just need to do something a little bit different from that standpoint. But nonetheless, my numbers do support Tampa Bay in this game, so I am going to play them. May look like a fool at the end because of what they’ve done versus what Seattle’s done. But I’m going to support the numbers, back the numbers, and lay the 2.5. And you know what? Let’s hope they win between three and seven, Chris, and we’ll both be happy.

T.J. Rives:

All right, so again, we’re going to put both handicaps on the record here. Chris is going to go with a teaser and another play, a two leg teaser. So he’s teasing it up to +9 actually in this situation, off the 2.5 on the BetUS line. And for Scott Kellen, he’s laying the points. The touchdown pass in the final seconds to Kade Otton on the goal line, I was standing right there as part of Buccaneer Radio for that play. And you talk about the old post-game show doing a 180 from, oh my god, six losses in seven games. Now you got to go to Germany too. Hey, happy locker room, you got some momentum. Brady’s back. It all changed on that play. We’ll see if it matters come Sunday in Germany in this one. Again that is a 9:30 AM Eastern Time, starts 6:30 AM Seattle time in the Pacific time zone for Sunday afternoon. And who had the script of the Seahawks being six and three in this game?

But that is the case and we’ll see what happens for the matchup in Germany. First time ever, Seahawks and Buccaneers. Again, we’re glad that you’re with us on the BetUS Show. We’re live on Thursday’s 1:00 Eastern Time. You’re in the live chat, we’re seeing some comments roll along. The live chatters love Seattle, they love your play, Chris. They love Seattle in this game getting points. We’ll find out if that’s the case. Fire in some questions. You’ll see those as the show goes on, if it’s to the game that’s pertinent that we’re talking about. We’ll see some questions and maybe get to some of those as we go. Next game up, the Kansas City Chiefs off an overtime win at home.

We’ll play the Jacksonville Jaguars who had a 17 point rally to beat the Raiders at home last week and snap a losing streak, still, nonetheless, 10 point line for Kansas City and this one at Arrowhead. They are favored by 10. The over under total at 50.5. There’s not an official play, I believe, on this one. Let me double-check. Yes, actually there is an official play from both of you guys. My mistake on that. Scott Kellen, let’s go right back to you quickly for an official play. What do you like? Chiefs hosting Jags?

Scott Kellen:

Yeah, TJ, I’m going over the 15.5 here. My numbers make Kansas City… I’ll call it 10 points, 7 point favorites, right where the line is, and actually make the number about 15.5. But when I look at this from a profile standpoint, I think this is an excellent opportunity for this game to be a little bit higher scoring. Kansas City got in this trench war with Tennessee last week and coming in this game is going to seem so much easier, I believe, to Kansas City than what they faced last week. We’re getting two offenses that are above average, two defenses that I would classify as below average. So from that standpoint it should just be easier for Kansas City to navigate. And from a Jacksonville standpoint, they’ve been a road dog this season four times, their game’s have totaled 61, 50, 48 and 50 points, gets us right around that number.

But when they faced below average defenses, they’ve scored 38, 6 and 27 points. The six points, mind blowing, was at home against Houston. But they did total over 400 yards in that game and basically took almost every drive into Houston territory, either turned it over or stopped and down. So it wasn’t like they were stopped in that game, they did move the ball. Kansas City can obviously score on just about anybody. They’ve scored on good defenses, bad defenses this year. When they’ve been held down, Indy, 17 points. That’s a pretty good defense. Buffalo, 20, good defense. Last week against Tennessee, 20 points. But short of that, against any bad defense they’ve played this year, they’ve scored 27 or more points. And to me, they’re going to get 27, 30 points in this game. Jacksonville’s really only faced one good offense this year. That was Philadelphia.

They allowed 29 points in that game. So again, I see Kansas City getting to 27, 30 points plus. The other thing to note here, since Mahomes came on board, when Kansas City has been a large favorite, let’s call it seven or more, there are 15 and seven to the under in those games, but that’s 22 games. But 20 of those 22 games they have played and faced below average offenses, which has probably helped them to get up to that seven point favorite. They’ve only played two good offenses. A few years ago against Vegas they allowed 40 points and a few years ago they allowed 30 to the Chargers. This year they played the Chargers at home. When the Chargers were healthy they allowed 24. Vegas’ offense has been slightly below average right now, but they did allow 29 to Vegas this year as well.

I think there’s a fair chance that Jacksonville can get to 23, 24 points in this game and I’m pretty confident Kansas City can get to 27. And when I run all these numbers I just rattled off, I get about a 32, 24 profile. So I think there’s a chance to get over the 50.5 points here, 51 being a key number. So 50.5 is a good number to take. And I think we’ll, we’ll have a decent chance to get over the total.

T.J. Rives:

All right, so he’s looking for points, points. Scott Kellen, I know this, Jacksonville was bad in the first half last week, falling behind 17, nothing, and the chiefs weren’t much better in the first half. But I do believe you’re going to look at a first half play here for something on this game. Give me more.

Chris Farley:

I am, I am. And Tom Hood is right, the Chiefs, what Scott said, I think the Jaguars are just going to feel like a very welcome enemy this week after the Titans… That’s just what the Titans do. It’s a Mike Vrabel team. They barely got over 200 yards in that game, total yards. But the Titans just make plays when it matters. They provide pressure when it matters and they’re good in the trenches. The Chiefs got 499 total yards in that game, 279 more yards than the Titans and they only scored 20 points. Last time we saw a game that was similar to that, to me that was the Chiefs in the Bills game where the chiefs still had a good offensive performance but just couldn’t complete their downs, they turned over the ball. And what did we see in the next week after that game? They went into San Francisco and put up 44 points.

This is a chief’s team who obviously is among one of the most talented offenses in the league. They’re at home again. You would argue after [inaudible 00:22:08], that’s the best spot to play on the Chiefs. But now since they underwhelmed a little bit, I really like the Chiefs in the first half to go over 14.5 Points. I like the full game team total over 30.5, too, but that’s a little bit of a deflated line in the first half for a Chiefs team who I think is going to want to quickly get out the gates and make the Jaguars uncomfortable in this contest. So give me the first half over 14.5. A lot of things that Scott said I agree with. This is just one of those games where the Chiefs usually show out.

T.J. Rives:

And they are at home, they are a double digit favorite. But again, Chris is most concerned with what are they going to do in half number one to come out sharper? Let’s put the guys officially locked in on the record here. And again for Scott Kellen, he’s on the over for the entire game. And again for Chris Farley, he likes the over for the Chiefs on their team total in half number one with the Jaguars. Doug Peterson, a former assistant under Andy Reid for a while in Kansas City, eventually became the Eagles coach, now the Jaguars coach, knows something about him, but I don’t know how much that’s going to matter for a Jaguar defense that’s vulnerable. Good luck against Patrick Mahomes in that matchup. All right, let’s move on on our BetUS NFL Show. Let’s continue with the New York Giants off of a bye week against the Houston Texans, Texans events.

Some extended time since losing to Philadelphia a week ago. Tonight they will play this game at MetLife Stadium. The Giants laying five, the total is 41 in this one. There’s not an official play. Chris Farley, I’m going to come right back to you. When last we saw the Giants, speaking of the Seahawks, they lost to the Seattle Seahawks. They’ve had a week for Brian Daboll to get a game plan together, make some mid-season adjustments, rest up, get a little healthier. Thoughts if no official play on a matchup with Houston coming in, please.

Chris Farley:

Well, this is an interesting game for the Texans because they should be able to succeed at least somewhat on offense because of their run game. Because the Giants, like the Texans, are one of the worst rushed defenses in the NFL, but then at the same time, both teams want to run the ball. So I think it leans towards a game where you could expect some offense and maybe more points than expected. So I’m thinking about the over in this game, we’ll see if I can get there, weather should be nice and it’s a good setup for the Giants coming off of a bye. Coach Daboll too checks out as one of those coaches who after bye they’re going to come out with some creative plays on offense, more creative than usual, they’re going to be buttoned up. We’ve seen it all year. This is a Giants team who is well disciplined.

They play over their talent level. And their last spot in Seattle was really tough because they had a brutal travel schedule at that point, playing in London and going down to Jacksonville, and then to Seattle. This is a much comfier spot for the Giants, but I still do think this line is a little much. I rate the Giants as four points better than the Texans. And the Texans, obviously, a below average team, but the Giants aren’t that much over. I still consider the Giants a very average team, but again, Houston should be able to succeed on the ground. So maybe you’ll look at some Damien Pierce and Saquon Barkley. Prop plays here. I did take the Texans at +7 when it came out on Monday. We don’t have a Monday show and I don’t see the value here being as good at five. But all season, I’ll finish with this, these fives have been strange. Dogs are covering and often winning outright when this number is five all season.

I’m not sure what that’s about. Probably a trend that’s not going to continue to repeat, but I do think that the Houston Texans could be pretty feisty here.

T.J. Rives:

All right, Scott Kellen, I know you do not have an official play real quick, a thought or two here on the Giant still hanging around the lead, nobody laugh, in the NFC East. They are still hanging around the lead, a couple of games behind the Eagles. This should be a winnable game. Any quick thought?

Scott Kellen:

Just to echo what Chris said, I made the number four so I think we’re spot on there. I make the total about 39.5. The interesting thing for Houston this year, they’ve only played one team that I would consider above average, meaning they have a above 500 record and they’ve scored more points than they’ve allowed. Houston, crazy, they’ve played three teams this year who might be above 500, but they’ve actually allowed more points than they’ve scored. So I don’t know what to say about that. The Giants, they have trouble separating themselves from any game really. They don’t win many games by margin. Against teams maybe similar to Houston when they played them this year, the beat Chicago 20 to 12, beat Carolina 19 is 16. So I just think it’s hard for the Giants to separate themselves. The biggest difference here is the Houston past defenses is not as good, but as Chris said, both teams are not real good defending the run. No play for me slightly into Houston just because I made the number a four.

T.J. Rives:

And again for the Giants in that loss to Seattle, a couple of special teams turnovers as well. They can’t help the Texans out obviously if they want to cover that number. Houston is challenged enough as it is, don’t help them with turnovers if you’re the Giants. So no official play here from the guys on this matchup with New York again back home off of a bye week playing Houston. Let’s move on our BetUS NFL show to a game that will be in the Steel City. Another team off the bye is the Pittsburgh Steelers playing against the New Orleans Saints who lost on Monday night. Shorter week for them and now they go on the road, they lost to Baltimore at home. The line is one here, the Saints favored by one. That’s moved down a little bit over the course of the last day or so from where Pittsburgh was getting two or 2.5. The total is 40 in this one.

There’s not an official play. I’m going to come right back to Scott Kellen here for a thought though on this game with Steelers. Actually there is an official play and we’ll begin with Scott Kellen, my mistake, I misread there again. Scott, give me some thoughts on this with Steelers back at home off the bye.

Scott Kellen:

Yeah, actually two plays for me on this one, TJ, I’m going under 40 points in this game. I make the number about 33. Now, part of that is based on T.J. Watt coming back as well. I think and hope he’ll be back. I’m still playing this whether he is or not, but I think that will help a lot. The Steelers obviously have not had T.J. Watt since game one. They put a lot of pressure on Cincinnati back in that game. I think they had, I don’t know, five or seven sacks week one. They’ve had eight sacks since T.J. Watt went out. They’ve been missing players in the secondary here and there throughout the year. They seem to have gotten the majority of those players back. And if T.J. Watt comes back I think we’re back to a Steeler defense that we have known for a long time, hopefully.

The Saints want to run the ball a little bit here anyway. So as I said, from a total perspective it’s just really a play on where my number is. I think there’s value on the under. From the teaser standpoint, I’m going to tease Pittsburgh up 6.5 point teaser up to 7.5. And I guess just to go back to the total as well, since 2015, Pittsburgh is 10 and three to the under as a home dog and they’re eight, three and two against the spread as a home dog. And you’d have to go back to 2016 to find the last time they lost as a home dog by more than three points. They just play these games very competitive and obviously by those numbers have won a lot of those games too. They lost by 11 to New England back in 2016.

Their last four losses a home dog have been to New England twice and Baltimore twice. Everybody else they’ve played very well against. I met the number of about a half point in this game in favor of the Saints. So I think with the teaser we’ve got some pretty good value with the team that I think is going to be very good defensively. And teasers as a dog this year going up to above the seven points have done very well. And obviously with a low total in this game there’s less variance in the final score. So I think we’ve got a better chance to catch the teaser as well. I like the Steelers’ +7.5 on the first leg of a teaser and under 40.

T.J. Rives:

All right, Chris Farley, I know you’ve been a guest on the three dog Thursday program. I isolated on one NFL doggy and I liked the Steelers in this situation, especially getting the two or 2.5. Again, the line has moved down. I just like Mike Tomlin with the extra week to scheme here. I know Kenny Pickett is a rookie, but I saw what they did for whatever it’s worth against the buccaneers. Highly motivated at home, they get this game at home. Chris, any thoughts here? I know you’ve got an official play here as well on this one.

Chris Farley:

I do. I also have two official plays in this game. So a lot of our bets on this game here, Scott. Hopefully it goes our way. Hopefully the narratives are in the direction we think it’s going to go. But Steelers at home, that’s definitely something to consider. But for me, T.J. Watt, he is akin to Josh Allen on the Bills to me as far as their defensive player, the MVP of their defense goes, defense just plays different when he is on the field. He’s a freak athlete. He frees up other players like Cameron Heyward, who all of a sudden running loose once he’s in the lineup. I just expect the pressure and the confusion for these Saints quarterbacks who are really starting to turn over the ball and we’ll see if it’s going to be Andy Dalton or James Winston.

I don’t think we know yet, but I don’t think it matters. I would love it if a cold James Winston came into this game and threw some turnovers. But we know that Andy Dalton can do the same thing. T.J. Watts just played in that first game, but we saw what they did at Cincinnati to start the season. Pittsburgh Steelers’ offense too is not that much to trust in it yet, but their offensive line has been quietly playing a little bit better. If they can get the run game going in this against the Saints defensive line and defense that has not been consistent, then it could really open up the Steelers’ offense. Now that they got rid of Claypool, maybe that opens up some opportunities for some of their younger talent too, which sometimes that could be a boost for the talent of a wide receiver on a team. Just really like this spot for the Steelers.

It’s a classic Mike Tomlin at home and then they’ve got T.J. Allard coming back. And for what it’s worth, the Saints, there’s a lot of descent around this team right now in New Orleans media about why they’re not playing Jameis Winston. They have the defense is up and down. I don’t know how good of a coach Dennis Allen is. A friend of mine, who’s a big Saints fan, listens to all the news, says that the players really don’t respond or like him very much. I’m not sure what to take from that. But the players do respond to Mike Tomlin. We’ve seen that time, time and time and time again. So I’m taking Pittsburgh money line and this is the second leg to my teaser. This is why I had to take it at 6.5 because we’ve got to get it over the seven. But I really like the Steelers in this spot at home.

T.J. Rives:

All right. Again, for the Saints, as you mentioned Alvin Kamara, we saw some people in the live chat saying this too, was really good, explosive big plays in the Raiders game but then was almost nonexistent. The Ravens defense is much better in the Monday night game. And again, I can testify from being at field level, Pittsburgh was ready to play, their secondary was banged up, they’ve gotten healthier, especially if Minkah Fitzpatrick can be in there as a safety for what that’s worth for this matchup at home with the Saints. Let’s lock the handicappers in. Again, we’ve got a lot on this game. For Scott Kellen, again, he’s got two different plays on this game going with the under and also playing this as part of a teaser later on that will be in the show. And for Chris Farley, he’s got the money line play on the Steelers and this caps his two team parlay with the Seahawks from earlier in the show getting the Steelers now if you tease it up as you see there for 7.5, getting the 6.5 off the BetUS line.

All right, so we move on to the NFC North, shall we? Where the Detroit Lions got a win over somebody’s Green Bay Packers last week. Now they’ll play the Chicago Bears in the Windy City, Chicago favored by three. The total is 48.5 in this one. All right, so let’s get into this a little bit more. We do not have an official play on this one. Chris Farley, I’m going to go right back to you just real quick here because again, Detroit took advantage of Aaron Rodgers throwing some interceptions in the red zone, even in the end zone, a couple of them, and found a way to win a low scoring slog fest. Chicago has scored points at times. Any thoughts here? No official play, Chris.

Chris Farley:

Yeah, the Lions are really fortunate to win that game last week, whereas the Bears were really, step by step, in the game with the Miami Dolphins because defenses can’t stop Justin Fields right now and I think the market is finally starting to respond to that. These Bears just feel like an over team because Justin Fields is going to get them down the field. He’s going to keep on scrambling. They figure something out there. And I’m not sure why all of a sudden functioning much better, but I just think they’re giving him more liberty to take over these plays and do what he wants to do with his legs in certain situations. And it’s working, obviously. And the Detroit Lions defense, even though they held the Packers to nine points last week, let’s face it, Aaron Rodgers, three turnovers in Lions territory, two of those in the Red Zone. Packers probably should have scored some more points and won that game, obviously. Another bet I made last week on the Packers, but I digress.

This is just one of those games where I think the line is right, the Bears are three point favorites. I think they deserve to be that at this point at home, especially with their offense is showing. Really hard to not take the over. But I do think the marketplace has adjusted well to this. It came out for a second at like 46.5, 47 at some books and then quickly shot up. So I just don’t see as much value in the over now. Plus it is a divisional game and sometimes we just see that in these divisional games teams play a little bit harder, defenses overplay to their talent. So no play for me in this one, but I do think keep on looking at Justin Fields props who ran for almost 200 yards last week and keep on looking at overs for these Bears. Because as long as they’re in these match ups where Justin Fields could put up points, especially against more consistent offenses, which I wouldn’t qualify the Lions as that, there’s probably going to be points in a lot of these games.

T.J. Rives:

All right, again, Fields showed the wheels, run past option stuff. Scott Kellen, I know you don’t have an official play. Real quick thoughts though on the matchup with the Lions.

Scott Kellen:

What Chris said, obviously Detroit, they were dominated last week and turnover saved them in that game, of course. And Chicago looking better. The one takeaway from Chicago last week, they averaged 3.9 yards a pass in that game. They’re not throwing the ball well, they’ve been bad all year. Now again, it feels run for 178 yards and obviously the running backs that run well, they may never need to throw the ball. But that is always a concern of mine that they still are well below average throwing the ball. But Justin Fields right now is lighting it up and making life very difficult. And to your point about a divisional matchup, week six on, divisional games, total’s higher than 45. Religiously, year, after year, after year they go under the total. That gets much better week 11 and beyond. So we’re not quite there yet, but it’s always tough to take a divisional game over as we get later and later in the year if that total’s high. Like I said, I can tell you, year, after year, after year that has come home as a winner.

And so I’d be very reluctant to go over in this game because of divisional game. I showed just very slight value on Detroit in this game. I make the line about 2.5, it’s catching up to Chicago a little bit. No play for me in this game. I’m just going to be watching and enjoying seeing how Justin Fields continues to just improve. He’s a very exciting guy to watch.

T.J. Rives:

Gather some information. Fields played well in the Monday night win over New England and he didn’t play poorly in Dallas, not for the entire game. So he’s put some games together where he has looked better. We’ll see if that continues in the matchup with the Bears and the Lions. Reminder again, thank you for finding us in the 1:00 Eastern Time hour. We’re here on Thursdays if you’re finding us later on. Make sure that you’re here live if you want to get in the live chat. We’ve got questions rolling throughout the show. We get to some of those as you see there on the bottom of the screen, address those. So make it a point to be with us if you want to participate in the live chat. Lot of great handicapping advice on this show every Thursday for the NFL. Let’s move on to the Miami Dolphins who beat those Chicago Bears in the shootout last week back at home with the Cleveland Browns. The Dolphins lay 3.5. The total is 49 in this one. All right, so let’s get some conversation going. No official play.

I’m going to come to Scott Kellen once more, come right back to you here. Any thoughts if no official play on this one with Tua and the Dolphins still scoring a lot of points at this stage.

Scott Kellen:

I think the thing to note with Miami here, this offense is unbelievably explosive. They’re 1.5 yards a pass better than their opponent. And this offense, I think a little bit, is overshadowing the fact that this defense is not very good in Miami right now. They just played the Lions and the Bears and won by four and three points those games, they were on the road. You have to go back to week one, the last time that this Miami team has won a game by more than six points. They’re basically keeping the other team in the game just because their defense isn’t really stopping anybody. And this is just going to be a matchup of Cleveland who wants to run the ball against this team and Miami obviously who’s going to want to throw the ball. I think it’s a fantastic matchup. I almost pulled the trigger on Cleveland +4 this game, but I held off.

There are still some injuries with Cleveland. Looks like Denzel Ward’s going to be coming back now. He hasn’t played real well this year, but maybe that was part of the injuries, I’m not sure. And they played games where they have not had both either Garrett or Clowney or neither one of them, and their defense has fallen apart in some of those games. But those guys are obviously playing right now and this team as a whole has now put pressure on the quarterback. But when you look at them when they’ve had Clowney and Garrett, they’ve done better at putting pressure on the quarterback. They obviously made life miserable for Cincinnati a couple of weeks ago. I would lean Cleveland in this game if the line goes back up and we find out that they’re getting all the guys back. Their linebacker’s been banged up too. I think he’ll be back. But I want to wait and see that as well. I lean Cleveland in this game just because I don’t want to lay a lot of points with Miami and that defense is not that good.

T.J. Rives:

All right, Chris Farley, very interesting. I did share this on the 3 Dog Thursday show, I love my mother-in-law, I love my in-laws. My wife’s parents, they are hardcore Dolphin fans here in Florida. She’s the biggest Dan Marino fan of all time. We went over to see my in-laws and she literally had a Jaylen Waddle shirt on and she greeted me with Waddle, Waddle, Waddle, Waddle, Waddle when we came in the house. True story. I’m not making this stuff up on the BetUS NFL Show. All right, any belief in Waddle, Waddle, Waddle and the Dolphins? Any thoughts if no official play, Chris Farley, real quick?

Chris Farley:

I do have a little belief in the Dolphins here. Truly, the only reason why I’m not playing on the Dolphins is because there’s a lot of sharp people out there who are warning me about the Browns in this spot. I don’t really see it. The Browns, from a matchup perspective, they can control the ball. They’re going to want to run the ball. They’re a top five team in running attempts, a top five team in rush yards and rush touchdowns per game. But the dolphins can get ahead and they can get ahead of you really quickly. One stat that really sticks out to me about the Browns defense is they allow 0.42 points per play, which is a long way of saying they allow some explosive offense. And this Miami Dolphins team is an explosive offense. And something special is going on here.

I like the way McDaniel coaches this team. There’s that speech in the locker room afterwards. Have they got over some adversity this year? Team is really cohesive it feels like. And now they’re going back home against the Browns team who, yes, they just played their best game of the year before their bye against the Bengals. A good showing by them. But at the same time they have not been consistent this year. And that’s especially true on defense. And now you have to go on face what feels like a juggernaut offense in the Miami Dolphins right now who don’t really need to run the ball because they’re so proficient in their short and long passing game. So I strongly lean to the Dolphins, just a little shy at this point.

T.J. Rives:

All right, no official play here. And again, we should mention the Browns off the bye week. Will that matter being on the road at Miami? We’re going to find out coming up. All right, we’re about halfway through the slate. We’re still buzzing along. We’ve got another interesting game involving an AFC East team coming up next. That’s the Buffalo Bills playing the Minnesota Vikings. As we speak it everybody is wondering, is Josh Allen practicing Thursday afternoon? He did not practice with the sprain ligament in the throwing right forearm. Sean McDermott described him as day-to-day, the head coach, if he does not play it’s Case Keenum at quarterback. Currently, the line, -3.5 on the BetUS line against the Minnesota Vikings who come in seven and one, total 43.5. All right, Chris Farley, I’m right back to you. No official play but quickly a thought or two here, especially if the Bills don’t have Josh Allen, they come off the loss to the Jets and come back home. Quick thoughts?

Chris Farley:

As my buddy said, is this a Case Keenum revenge game for the Bills because he’d be starting at quarterback. I don’t think so. Everybody in the world wishes that they had the Vikings +8 when this line came out. I did not grab it at that time, even though I thought it was a good line. I did get +6 and now we see very reasonably it’s down to +3 because Josh Allen is their offense. The Bills don’t really have a running game. Josh Allen is the running game. And Josh Allen and the choices he makes on every play is the Bill’s offense. But this Vikings team, I’ll tell you, more than any other team I’ve seen in recent history, they win and cover these games where they really shouldn’t. But I do have to give him some credit, especially Kirk Cousins.

He made some passes last week against the Commanders in a tough spot in his previous home there in Washington. Got a little banged up and still made those throws. And I know everyone’s making fun of these videos of Kirk with his shirt off, but there’s something to say about a team loving their quarterback. Some teams are a bunch of talented guys, other teams are actual teams. And this Vikings unit does seem like they’re more cohesive than a lot of teams in the NFL right now. That’s probably the reason why they’re covering some of these games. The ball is definitely bouncing in their direction in a few of these games too. However, this is a tough game with a lot of question marks in this. It’s still going to be a tough environment there for the Vikings at Orchard Park.

And the Bills have a top five defense for sure. That’s not a fluke. At the same time Josh Allen out of this game potentially really, really limits what the Bills can do and I think it’d be smart if he did sit out of this game because they have a long season with a lot of goals ahead. So I can’t play the game where it is now. And we’ve seen this total drop too, which also makes a lot of sense.

T.J. Rives:

All right, so no play from Chris. Again, the ligament injury is the same as the baseball pitching Tommy John ligament, the UCL ligament. So you’ve got to be very careful, Scott Kellen, with this guy because he could damage it further if you’re rushing back too quick. So the quarterback situation up in the air with Buffalo. Any thoughts if no official play?

Scott Kellen:

Yeah, a couple things. There might be some wind in this game, maybe 16 miles an hour or something. So I want to pay attention to that, but-

T.J. Rives:

I could testify, being in Florida right now, that ain’t wind, baby. We’ve been having some wind with Tropical Storm Nicole. I’d take 16 miles an hour right now. Continue.

Scott Kellen:

Yeah, well put. But beyond Allen, the other ones that I’m looking at here, Jordan Poyer and Matt Milano both missed last week. And to your point, this is a great defense, but they’re already without Micah Hyde. Now if they don’t have Poyer, that’s two really good safeties. Milano is a great linebacker for them. So let’s just say Allen doesn’t play, Milano doesn’t play and Poyer play, the one thing I may look at here, and again I mentioned that win because of this, possibly is the over. So is Case Keenum a great quarterback? Is he Josh Allen? Hell no. He’s matched back up with Stephan Diggs. That’s the other thing I think is funny here. Go back to the Minneapolis Miracle. So let’s look at what Allen’s done this year. Allen, 7.4 yards a pass. If I go back to that year where Case Keenum took him to the NFC championship game and that was a decent team that he played on, he averaged 6.8 yards a pass. For Josh Allen, averaged sack rate of 5.1%. Back to that year, Case Keenum, sack rate of 4.4.

He was actually a little bit better. Interception rate for Allen, 2.7%. We know he is been throwing some picks here this year. Case Keenum back then, 1.5%, Allen averaged 6.3 yards a run this year. Case Keenum, four yards a rush back then. I made a 7.5 point adjustment going from Allen to Case Keenum. But my point is, Case Keenum can still throw the ball and they’ve got a lot of weapons on offense. Yes, they don’t run the ball. And this Minnesota defense is below average stopping the pass and they’re probably playing without Cameron Dancer, one of the cornerbacks this week. He’s not a great cornerback, but we’re losing depth in the secondary. So if Allen doesn’t play and we’re missing the two guys for Buffalo and the wind is okay and not a Tampa wind, TJ, I may take a shot at the over in this game. Especially interesting if this total keeps coming down, I would potentially show a little bit of value in the total in this game.

T.J. Rives:

All right, and again, we saw Chris with the comment there in the live chat. Those interceptions with Allen almost made him quit gambling. No official play from the handicappers on this one. Again, keep an eye on Allen’s status. Don’t be surprised if they arrest him because as Chris Farley said, you’ve got the whole rest of the season and the post-season to think about before you rush him out there to hurt that ligament worse, which you don’t want. All right, fair enough on Vikings and Bills. Let’s move on to another game on the slate. This one in Tennessee. Still injury question marks around the guy you see there, Ryan Tannehill. Can he play off the bad ankle? Midweek he is limited in practice. Again, they’ve played Malik Willis, the rookie quarterback. The last couple of games Titans have run it well with Derrick Henry. Meanwhile, Broncos come in in this one off the bye week after winning in England. So we got several teams coming off the bye week and in this case, Tennessee lays 2.5 with the uncertainty about Tannehill, only a total of 36.5.

Neither of these teams scoring a bunch. Scott Kellen, I’m right back to you because this is the second half of a teaser play for you. What do you have?

Scott Kellen:

Yeah, we’re teasing Buffalo up, 6.5 point teaser from the 2.5. We’ll get them up to nine. Again, the goal here, get it above seven points, that’s the requirement here. And I did this a couple weeks ago when Denver was a dog against Jacksonville and London. With the way the Broncos are playing defense and I know Chub is gone, Justin Simmons did not practice yesterday, that concerns me a little bit. Hopefully he can go. Hopefully they get Baron Browning back, possibly. I don’t think he practiced yesterday. But he was having a lot of effect off the edge as well that helped with the loss of Chub, trading him. But this Denver defense is lights out and they’re not losing games by margin this year. I think the only game they’ve lost by more than seven was to Vegas, ironically, of all teams, where they lost by nine points.

So I see them keeping this game close and I think there’s still more regression coming for this Denver offense in a positive way. This offense is slightly below average just when looking at the opponents that they’ve faced from a compensated standpoint. And they’re actually going to play an offense in Tennessee that’s worse and is markedly worse if Tannehill doesn’t play. Even if Tannehill plays, I like this game. Denver going into that Jacksonville game who was scoring TDs in the red zone at a 25% rate. They’re now up to about 35%. They played below average defense in Jacksonville and I think Tennessee’s defense is above average. We saw what they can do last week. But if you go back to 2015, when scoring changed a little bit because of the extra point and whatnot, there’s only been a couple teams that have averaged less than 40% TD rates in the red zone.

So I still think there’s a little bit of more regression coming from this Bronco offense and it’s still Russell Wilson. This is not Malik Wills or whatever playing offense at quarterback here. I know there’s some question marks about Wilson and how good he is and all this and that, but he’s not horrible. And when you mark him up with a great defense that Denver has, I don’t see Tennessee scoring more than 17 points in this game there. When Denver has faced below average offenses this year, they allowed Houston nine points, Indianapolis, 12 points and the Jets 16 points. I just don’t see Tennessee getting more than 17 points in this game. And if we can get more than seven points, in this case nine points, I think we’ve got an excellent chance to catch the second leg of the teaser, which we put with Pittsburgh earlier on.

T.J. Rives:

All right, Chris Farley, I saw you nodding a bunch there. Russell Wilson, a chance to get healthier with the bye week. He’s been bothered by the hamstring, the lat muscle injury in the throwing arm. No Bradley Chub as he mentioned. We don’t know about Ryan Tannehill. Quick thought if no official play, Chris.

Chris Farley:

Yeah, I’ll be really quick here. I just like that Scott is playing this. I think that the Denver Broncos could be a live dog in this. Tennessee’s been playing really well for a number of weeks now, but here comes a defense that is better than them. I think they could play really aggressive and they could play man to man, fill up the box because they have a lot of talent there, quarterback and safety. And I totally agree with Scott. Russell Wilson, he can be embarrassing, but at the end of the day before the buy, he led those Broncos to a few really crucial drives. Maybe there’s some chemistry there, they’re coming off a bye. So I think even on the road, it’s a slightly better spot for the Broncos who are going to be just more well rested, healthier, and they could really, really limit this Tennessee offense. So watch out for playing on the Titans. I love playing on the Titans and I played on them a lot this year, but I don’t think this is the spot.

T.J. Rives:

The spot though for Scott Farley is a two team tease. Let’s pair it up. He says tease up the Broncos and pair it up with the Steelers who he had earlier teasing up 6.5 points. So he gets, in this case, Denver plus the nine is the second half of that tease. All right, let’s continue a matchup that has real intrigue because of the coaching circus in Indianapolis. So a week after firing the offensive coordinator, Marcus Banks, Jim Irsay says, you know what, I’m going to just go ahead and fire Frank Reich, too, the next week and fires a head coach. And then compounds it by hiring Jeff Saturday, a former Pro Bowl offensive lineman who does not have any NFL coaching experience as an assistant. He’s been a high school coach. Saturday did not know anything about this until Jim Irsay called him Monday about mid-morning, “Would you be interested in coaching the Colts?” And so now here he is on the road at Las Vegas.

The Raiders laying six. The Raiders off of a collapse in Jacksonville last week, they’re in turmoil themselves. 42.5 is the line. Let’s go right back to Chris Farley. What do you have on this matchup in Vegas, Raiders and the Jeff Saturday led Colts?

Chris Farley:

Yeah, well, normally after what the Raiders did last week, I would be looking to fade them in any spot because they really quit in that second half. But that being said, man, this Colts team is about as big of a dumpster fire as there is in the NFL right now. And listening to Jeff Saturday talk, I like the guy, I think maybe long term he probably could be a good coach in the NFL because a big part of leadership is how much you influence your players. And he just seems like a charismatic, authentic dude and players respond to that. At the same time, the quarterbacks coach is going to be calling the plays this week. It’s a short week for this transition for a Colt’s team that is already one of the least explosive offenses in the league. You got Sam Ehlinger at quarterback who’s struggling.

Of course, he just came from Foxboro and that’s a really tough place for any rookie quarterback to play. So maybe this feels a little easier this week, but Vegas Raiders can bring some pressure, they can get in his face in this game. Jonathan Taylor is still banged up. I think there’s a chance he plays, but I think this is a great spot for the Raiders to get right. Their offense is still very talented. They’re back at home and Josh McDaniels is legitimately on the hot seat now. Almost every week we’re hearing these things about these front office room talks with him. Derek Carr was sounding off about him in the press conference almost as if he couldn’t keep it in anymore. So it’s a response spot for the Raiders and I just don’t trust the Colts right now. But instead of taking them the full game, because we’ve seen what the Raiders do in the second half, I’m taking the Raiders -3.5 in the first half, they score about 13 points per game, whereas the Colts, they score the least points in the first half in any game.

I believe it’s 4.7 points or something like that, or maybe even less. So good spot for the Raiders offense to get right. And for what it’s worth, I do like the Raiders full game too because I don’t think there’s a route for the Colt’s offense and how non-expensive it is to come back against this team.

T.J. Rives:

All right, we see a lot of people in the chat, three of them that said, “Stay away from this game.” Scott Kellen, I know you’re staying away from this game. Just a quick thought here, including are the Colts going to be an even bigger mess with Saturday?

Scott Kellen:

Well, I think to me a good coach is what Chris said. It’s a leader. It’s not even necessarily Xs and Os. You’ve got to lead a team and direct them and all that stuff. So we’ll see what he can do. It’s just kind of a joke though. You get a call on Monday and like you said, “What are you doing? Hey, do you want to coach?” We’ll see where that goes. I love Chris’s part, I forgot about how bad Indianapolis is in the first half. And Sam Ehlinger 3.8 yards per pass in the two games he’s played. That’s record setting low. 17.5% sack rate. That’s record setting horrible. And I know he just played New England, which maybe inflated that a little bit, he gets a little bit of a reprieve here because this Raider defense is bad. But hey, Raiders won by 18 over Houston at home, they beat Denver by nine. They led Arizona badly in that game. I think 21, nothing or something to that, maybe 20 nothing before they lost that game. So the Raiders have the potential here to be better at home.

I do have a lot of good situations in Indianapolis. There’s no way I can pull the plug here on that. I just cannot trust the quarterback situation. And I like Chris’ play the first half.

T.J. Rives:

All right, let’s lock it in officially with the Raiders back home. Again, the turmoil around them, maybe not as much as the Colts. And he says, “Hey, lay the points in the first half line for the Raiders.” And again, worth noting, they were up 17 nothing at Jacksonville last week and did have the lead by more than a touchdown at halftime last week. There it is from Chris the cop right there on being up 17, nothing last week. That was last week. We’ll see what happens with the Colts and the Raiders. All right, down the home stretch of the show. Hang in there. If you’re in the live chat, we’re still seeing questions, comments, come through here on the BetUS NFL Show. We’re live Thursdays at 1:00 Eastern Time, depending on if you’re seeing us later or you’re seeing it in segment form.

Let’s move on to a game in the NFC West. Man, I just saw the Rams at field level, could only muster 13 points last week. Matt Stafford now in concussion protocol for this week. Kyler Murray also banged up for the Cardinals. Who are the quarterbacks in this game? We’ve got the Rams laying one back at home. The total is 41.5. We do not have an official play. Scott Kellen, I’ll quickly come back to you for a thought or two. What’s our QB matchup here if no Stafford, if no Murray, what do we have?

Scott Kellen:

I think it’s John Wolford, I think it’s John, for the Rams and Colt McCoy for Arizona. And, TJ, I made a play in this game yesterday over 43 expecting Matthew Stafford and Kyler Murray and I felt that was a good bet for reasons that don’t even really matter at this point. And now I’m sitting with a ticket that might be over 43 with John Wolford and Colt McCoy and I can only just hope and pray for a whole bunch of turnovers if it actually goes that route. So look, the Rams are horrible right now. I did feel this was a decent matchup where they could get some opportunities, but without knowing who’s going to be quarterback. I’ll just say this, if both the starting quarterbacks play and this number stays at 41.5 or goes up to 43, I’m sure it’ll go up, I would play over 43. But without knowing, nothing for me in this game.

T.J. Rives:

Rams, Chris Farley, I just saw them again. They could not run the ball, offensive line questions, they miss. Aaron Donald played tremendous. Got to Tom Brady a couple of times big in the second half, including on a fourth down. But they gave up the game-winning touchdown there in the final few minutes. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are a mess also. No official play. Any quick thoughts here on this one? Division rivalry.

Chris Farley:

Yeah, stay away for me. Obviously if Kyler Murray does play and Stafford doesn’t, you’ve got to look at the Cardinals a little bit here. Because at least from what we saw from Buddha Baker in the locker room, they’re a team that’s trying to rally still and correct some of their wrongs. But what I don’t like about the Rams, especially, this is a little bit more intangibles, is you’re just hearing Sean McVay and some others just talk about some of their disinterest this year. Sean McVay talking about retirement on talk shows, a little too much for my liking. And now they’re going to be in position that if they lose this game, they are at the bottom of the NFC West by a pretty good margin. Because you have the Seahawks and the 9ers already beat them twice. So it’s going to be a tough road ahead. So if the Rams lose this game, I’ll just say this, they’re probably going to be a team for me to fade in the future.

If you don’t have a run game and you really don’t have a sustainable passing game, because all you have is Cooper Cup then your defense is going to start to quit on you because they’re going to be on the field so often, which we’re already seeing. So neither of these teams are teams I want to play on right now, but slightly into the Cardinals.

T.J. Rives:

And some friction between Kyler Murray and Deandre Hopkins on the field during that Seattle game last week too. So there’s a lot to dislike here in this matchup. Somebody’s going to get well though in this one because both have been struggling here as of late. Somebody gets well in the matchup with Arizona and the LA Rams. All right, a game that will have much more interest obviously, the Dallas Cowboys at the Green Bay Packers. What is going on with the pack? They are getting 5.5 at home. When is the last time you saw Aaron Rodgers getting that many points at home as we come your way on Thursday off the BetUS line? Total is 43. Chris Farley, I am back to you. What do you have in this matchup here with the Cowboys having look good, especially running the football when last we saw them with Tony Pollard, et cetera? What do you like here in this one?

Chris Farley:

Yeah, I like the under in this one, taking under 43. I think that’s just slightly too high for me. It’s going to be cold there in Green Bay, especially as the night goes on. And the Green Bay Packers defense has not been the problem. The past two weeks, they kept the Buffalo Bills, for what it’s worth, under 400 yards, which that feels like a feat at Orchard Park or it caused some turnovers in that game too. And then they held the Lions to only 250 yards last week. But we know how that story went because Aaron Rogers just kept on turning over the ball. And that has been a pretty good Detroit Lions offense holistically throughout the year. So they’re facing a Dallas Cowboys offense that also has not been that explosive. We just don’t see the Cowboys functioning at the same high level that they have in previous seasons.

I don’t know if that’s because of Mario Cooper isn’t there anymore? I don’t know if he’s that important for the entirety of the offense, but it’s just what we’re seeing. Meanwhile, the Packers and their offensive line, just a lot of concerns, Jenkins, Bakhtiari, these guys are still banged up, Runyan, they’re all listed as questionable, which just means at this point they’re just probably not 100%. And you’re going up against Micah Parsons and that defensive line that’s going to be flying around the ball, probably very aggressive, off of a bye, healthier than ever. I think both defenses are going to thrive in this game and it just feels like a 20 to 17 type of game for me. So slight lean into the Packers here, actually because I think again, this is one of those weird five numbers and the Packers are at home. And if they lose this game, that’s it.

They are out of NFC North contention. They probably are already, they would be almost seriously out of contention to make the playoffs for the rest of the season because their schedule’s not that easy. So this should be a circle spot for the Packers. But you could say the same for the Cowboys, it’s Mike McCarthy against his former team, so-

T.J. Rives:

That’s right.

Chris Farley:

… I’d rather not play on his side here. But I do like the under.

T.J. Rives:

Interesting, Scott Kellen, that the Vikings are three clear of everybody in the NFC North or the old NFC Central in the beginning of November for the first time since the Bud Grant Vikings, hello of the 1970s. It’s been that rare that they have been that much better than the rest of the division this late in the year. And it’s more about Green Bay, as Chris was saying, faltering here. All right, give me some insight. No official play from you, but give me some insight real quick on Packers Cowboys, please.

Scott Kellen:

Yeah, I think it was Eli who said Rogers is done. He’s got this thumb too, he played horrible last week. So maybe there’s something going on there as well that’s really affecting what he can do. I’ll say this, first of all, at Green Bay, when they played above average defenses this year they’ve averaged about 18 points. So they’re probably not scoring more than 17 give or take. But here’s the one thing, and I do lean towards Green Bay a little bit, but they got a lot of injuries. Rashan Gary now out for the year. Eric Stokes, okay cornerback, not their best quarterback, he may not play. And they got really beat up on offense, defense last week. I think they got 10 new names on their injury list this week just from what happened at-

T.J. Rives:

Romeo Doubs, not likely to play the rookie receiver’s been good, high ankle sprain. He’s another one on that list. Take away another weapon from Rogers, yes.

Scott Kellen:

Yeah, and I think Jones will play. He got banged up, but again, how effective he is he going to be? Here’s the one thing I would say though, if you’re looking to play Dallas, and I’m not saying that Dallas will not cover this game, but three weeks ago Detroit goes into Dallas, loses 24 to six, looks like a blowout, but both teams average 5.6 yards a play in that game. Detroit fumbles on the goal line trying to go in. Detroit turns it over twice in their own territory that leads to Dallas, 14 points on drives that started deep inside Lion territory. So that final score was really not accurate to what happened in that game. Fast forward to last week, Packers lose 15 to nine, they dominate the game. They punt once in the game. Almost every drive goes into the Detroit territory.

Rogers throws interceptions from the one to five and I believe the 22-yard line. So that game could have been much, much different as well. Now here comes Green Bay at home. They haven’t been home since mid-October because they just finished three games on the road. They did lose to the Jets bad in that game, only scored 10 points. They’re going to face another defense that’s very tough just like the Jets. And then before that they played October 2nd against New England at home. So this team has not been at home or maybe they can play a little bit better. Rogers has only been a home dog twice in the last 12 years or so. They won one game and tied, beat the Rams last year, 36, 28, few years ago, tied Minnesota 29, 29. They were 1.5 point dogs both times.

I show a little bit of value on Green Bay here. It’s very tough to play them though. Not enough value for me to play it right now. This line would continue to go up, maybe I’d get interested, but I also want to see what the injury situation is. No play for me.

T.J. Rives:

Fair enough. Chris Farley, however, looks at this and says, “I don’t see enough points in this one. I will take the under here, especially with the Packers’ struggles and the injury to Doubs and what’s going on with the thumb of Aaron Rodgers,” et cetera, et cetera. He will play the under in the Green Bay Dallas matchup. All right, two to go. Sunday night Football will have the LA Chargers fresh off a wild win in Atlanta in the final seconds as they came from behind to win that one against the San Francisco 49ers who again had a week off. Another theme again of a team with the week off being at home now in this case, 49ers laying 7.5, the total 45.5. We don’t have an official play. Quickly, Scott Kellen, I’m right back to you. Any thoughts here if no official play on Chargers in Santa Clara against San Fran?

Scott Kellen:

No play for me, TJ. I think it’s a bad matchup just from a matchup standpoint for the Chargers here. The rush defense gives up 0.9 yards per rush more than their opponent’s average. The 49ers, when compensated for their opponent, have been about average rushing a ball, but I think that’s going to get much, much better. And if the 49ers can run the ball here, it’s going to open up all the play action stuff that Kyle Shanahan wants to do and be able to throw the ball down the field. And the 49ers’ defense is getting healthy. They still got a couple injuries, but now they’re going to face a Charger offense that very well could be without Keenan Allen.

Again, we know they’re without Mike Williams, the offensive line’s banged up. It’s just not a good matchup. And this Charger offense is now below average because of all the injuries that they’ve had to suffer. So I’m not playing the game at the current line, but this thing could get ugly fast just because I think it’s a really bad matchup for the style that the 49ers play versus how the Chargers play defense.

T.J. Rives:

Chris Farley, quickly, it’s another week where Kyle Shanahan’s been able to prepare on a bye week with Christian McCaffrey now in the fold, another full week of practice with him to gear up. And we saw him throw catch and run for a touchdown in just his second 49er game when he did that against the Rams. All right, quick thought if no official play on 49ers hosting the Chargers.

Chris Farley:

Yeah, I think it’s a sneaky smart move here by BetUS sports folks to move this to 7.5 because this could be a blowout game by the San Francisco 49ers. I agree with Scott, that Charger’s offense is just one yard pass, two yard pass, three yard pass. It takes them 15 to 20 plays to get down the field. Meanwhile, the San Francisco 49ers, they can be very explosive. We saw what Christian McCaffrey did in his last game. If they get Deebo back in this, which I don’t think we’re sure about just yet, but once we see them both on the field, the speed and space they should be able to create on offense is going to be a problem for a lot of defenses. I guess if you’re NFL betting on the Chargers, they’ve been a good road team this year. Three, 0 and one against the spread on the road, I believe, they are recovering overall more this year than they have in seasons past. That being said, this is a tough spot. Again, San Francisco after a bye.

I respect some really good handicaps who like the Chargers here, so it’s keeping me off of it. But I tend to think this is going to be a San Francisco blowout.

T.J. Rives:

And again, McCaffrey played collegiately at Stanford and they found some rhythm with him. The other two names are LaDainian Tomlinson and Walter Payton, hello, with a rushing touchdown, a receiving touchdown and throwing a touchdown in the same NFL game. That’s pretty good company the last time we saw San Francisco in their win over the Rams. Okay, one to go and that is the Monday nighter, the only unbeaten team remaining is the Philadelphia Eagles who have never been eight, no. They are eight, no, they’re playing the Washington Commanders who have had more success, they’ve played better football, they were winning, for what it’s worth, most of the second half against the Vikings before the Viking comeback. They had won the Commanders the previous two games. All right, now they’re on the road at Philadelphia. The Eagles laying 11 points. We’ve seen a lot of double digit lines throughout the year. So the Eagles lay 11 here. When last we saw them, they beat the Houston Texans on Thursday night football. The total is 44 in this one. Chris Farley, quickly, no official play on this one, but a thought or two please.

Chris Farley:

Yeah, tough game for me here because at first glance, you want to give the Commanders some more respect, a team that’s been fighting really hard behind Taylor Heinicke and their defense is fighting really hard too. But something that Ryan Reynolds said to me, my buddy over there at the 33rd team, not the actor, said to me is that one thing that’s really true about the Philadelphia Eagles right now is with every new game comes a little more pressure I think. Because now you’re set up to possibly have a perfect season, the rest of their schedule continues to be a pretty easy season. So every game now feels like they have more of a bullseye on their back. 11 points is a ton of points in a divisional game in the NFL. So just by principle, I want to take the Commanders.

But the Philadelphia Eagles are at home. It’s a nice spot for them off of Thursday night football. So they get extended rest. And I think they do match up well here against the Commanders. The one thing I would say is we know Philly could be exposed against the run. We saw that with the Texans. They’re not good against the rush in general, all the stats say that. But again, if this game gets out of hand, Philly tends to do that, they tend to get ahead quick, then it’s going to be in Taylor Heinicke’s hands against that Philly rush and that’s a really tough spot for the Commanders. So it’s all about that first half game narrative. If the Eagles go up early, I wouldn’t consider anything. But if you get a deflated line after the first half because the Washington Commanders are staying in it, maybe you’ll look for a live play on the Commanders as well.

T.J. Rives:

All right, interesting. Scott, any thoughts here? Again, this looks like it should be an easy Eagle win, but again, it’s a division play and I know you delve into those numbers too with division opponents. Anything, real quick here, on the Monday nighter?

Scott Kellen:

Yeah, I show a little bit of value in Philly in this game, but it’s obviously a very big line. Much like where India’s been horrible in the first half, we all know how good Philly’s been in the first half. That didn’t really play out last week. Chris is right, the one vulnerability here is that rush defense of Philadelphia maybe can keep Washington going a little bit. Just one last point on this, TJ, since Rivera took over at Washington, they’ve played eight games on the road against teams that are 500 or above. They’ve lost those games by 15, won a game by six, lost by 22, lost by 14, lost by 10, lost by 42, lost by 15. They’ve lost by an average of 16 points against good competition. Hertz, since he became the starter the last season, they’re now seven and 0 straight up as a home favorite, six, 0 and one against the spread.

They’ve won every one of those games by nine or more points, six of one of the over. They’ve scored 24 or more points in each of those games, including winning 27 to 17 here last year as a 10 point favorite over Washington. I forget who quarterbacked for Washington. It was like one of us three basically quarterbacking for the Commanders or the Washington football team at that point in time. But Washington hasn’t done real well in this row. The Eagles have thrived. No play for me. A little bit of value to Philly in this game.

T.J. Rives:

Yeah, a lot of numbers that support the Eagles being able to get it done in this one. Again, they are marching on right now in year two of Nick Sirianni and it’s not a very tough schedule, at least in the short term here for them to maybe get to nine and 0, 10 and 0, 11 and 0, if they get by this one on Monday night. No official plays. So that concludes the full slate of schedules. Let’s take a look at the games that the guys are on just by recapping here. I won’t go over all of it. You see a couple of two leg teasers from the guys here pairing some different things up, including having a couple of plays on a couple of different games for Chris and for Scott. So we wish you guys well. We’ve come to the end. I literally have a plane to catch with the Buccaneer travel party later this afternoon, Thursday afternoon, as we’re doing the live show because the Bucs are on their way to Germany.

The Seahawks are already there. They left a day early with the Pacific time zone for them. They practiced on Thursday in Germany. The Bucs practiced Thursday in their indoor facility during the tropical storm. And now we’ll go get on the plane. The storm is mostly passed by this afternoon up towards Georgia, up towards Carolina for the Thursday night game. Be aware in the second half, like we were talking earlier for Carolina and Atlanta. We’ll see. But guys, a pleasure to be with you as always. I’m going to report back on how it is in Germany this weekend. Scott, I know you were in London for the Packer game with the Giants. We’ll see how it compares having been in London before. Chris Farley, thank you. Good luck with your plays, my friend.

Chris Farley:

I appreciate it. And Mark Holmes, I do not look like Kirk Cousins. Can’t anyone ever see how big his mouth is? Like a shark’s mouth. Get out of here with all that, Mark.

T.J. Rives:

And he does have his shirt on unlike Cousins too, by the way. Scott Kellen, thank you. Have a great weekend. Good luck with your plays.

Scott Kellen:

Enjoy The trip, TJ. It’s going to be a great opportunity.

T.J. Rives:

And we thank a Alejandro and everybody behind the scenes at BetUS. I’ll report back from Germany. This should be wild with the Seahawks Sunday morning. Don’t forget to check out our sportsbook website. Thank you for watching us on the BetUS NFL Show.

 

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