Intro:
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Matt Landis:
NFL week 11 coming up, and here to take an early look: I’m your host, Matt Landis, joined by Las Vegas Chris and Cleve T.A., back in today for Scott Kellen. T.A., welcome back to the show. You were last with us in week eight, and since then, let’s just say things have gotten a little weird across the NFL.
T.A.:
Thanks for having me back, guys. Yeah, this has been a crazy season. We were just talking before we went on air about how, jeez, crazy line moves. You get in with the … You think you’ve got a great line, and then it gets stale, and you get injury news. You get COVID news. And you think you’ve got the best of it, and then that team loses outright. We’ve seen it multiple times. And between that and some of the big upsets, it’s been a really, really crazy year, but it’s been fun. It makes it really more challenging to predict, but that’s what we’re here for. So I’m excited to be back and talk about some of these games.
Matt Landis:
Yeah. And, Chris, when the NFL gets chaotic, that seems to be about the time that you really thrive.
Chris:
Yeah. But I’ll disagree a little bit with the fun thing. I got to tell you, I had Baltimore last week against Miami, and that game was just so bad. And that was after the previous week where we’ve had a lot of big favorites go down, completely unreasonably and out of the norm, so disconcerting a little bit. But the rest of the weekend went fine. And quite frankly, I’m excited about the rest of the year.
Chris:
I think this is where the cream rises to the top and the good teams start to come out and play better. And I’m hoping things are as predictable as they’ve been in years past because it’s been kind of wishy-washy up till now, but it’s headed in the right direction.
Matt Landis:
Yeah. And we’ll look to get things moving in the right direction. And as we prepare to do so with the week 11 slate, a quick note to the audience joining us here on YouTube, give this video a quick thumbs up. You can always subscribe to the channel and jump in that chat. Let us know if you have any questions as we take our early look at the week 11 board. And if you have any strong thoughts on the games we’ll get to today, you can always get in-play yourself at Bet US.
Matt Landis:
You can sign up today using the promo code NFL 2021 for a 125% signup bonus. And for more information on that offer, check out the link below this video. All right, guys, we’ll dig in pretty quickly here. No Scott today, so we won’t revisit our records over the course of the season. We’ll bring that back up on Friday’s show. Also, no injury rundown because frankly, we’ve got a lot of action to get to. So Chris, let’s kick it off with the week 11 rapid-fire line movement prediction.
Chris:
Yeah, I think a lot of line moves have already happened for this week. We’ve got New England, who’s gone up to seven, which is quite a move. I don’t think it’s going to go any higher than that and could possibly get a little playback down. Cleveland, that seems to be a little injury-related. I don’t see that line coming down from 10. It seems pretty stable but not sure there. San Francisco looks pretty stable where it is. It touched seven briefly. I’m not sure it’s going to touch seven again, and I would think it should come down a little bit. The Buffalo is teetering between seven and seven and a half, so line shop that. I don’t think it’s going to go any higher than seven and a half, but it does belong there.
Chris:
Miami is climbing toward that three and a half. I have a feeling it’s going to hit that three and a half. Carolina seems a little high. But we do have injuries with Washington again, and there seems to be rejuvenation, so that may not be as high as it looks. It seems stable. Baltimore at six, six and a half, I don’t see it going down. It might be stable. It might shoot up a little bit more. But after that Miami game, I don’t know. New Orleans-Philadelphia is the popcorn-time line move game. So let’s see which group moves this line which direction because you have groups every week betting this game or these teams. I’m unsure where this line’s going to go, quite frankly.
Chris:
Tennessee seems to have a ceiling of 11, I would think. Their offense has been really sputtering, and I think people will realize it, and the line will come down. Green bay, everybody’s waiting to pounce on that. That’s trying to hit three. It should hit there before it eventually gets bet down, but that’s depending on Minnesota injuries. Las Vegas and Cincinnati, boy, that’s right where it belongs. Who knows? Pick Em seems about right. There shouldn’t be any major movement on that. The Arizona line, I’ve already bet this game on the if-come minus two, two and a half. I think if Murray’s announced in, that line shoots past the three and potentially four, so something to be aware of. If they announce that he’s out, obviously, the line’s going to go back down and could flip to the Seattle side.
Chris:
Dallas-Kansas City, Kansas City seems to be getting a lot of support. Everybody thinks they’re back. So that might touch three, but I have a feeling a lot of people are going to bet Dallas and bring that back down. The Chargers, they just announced Bosa is on the COVID list, so that’s moving as we speak. We’ve got Ben Roethlisberger news. We don’t know where that thing’s going to be. It’s hovering five, six. It seems too high. Just sit that one out till Saturday anyway. And Monday night Tampa Bay, that seems about right. There’s no real reason for that to move any significant amount.
Matt Landis:
Yeah. Well, one of the games you touched on, Chris, Indianapolis at Buffalo. We see the Bills laying seven. You mentioned that number teetering between seven and seven and a half. But right now at Bet US, the odds favor the Bills at that minus seven with minus 115 vig attached, total of 50. And tell us what you’re looking at in this AFC showdown on Sunday.
Chris:
Well, I’ve stressed the importance of being able to pivot. I’ve been a supporter and better of Indianapolis all last year and this year, but my numbers say that there is value on Buffalo, so I already took Buffalo. I like it at the current number at seven. I don’t like it at seven and a half, but I have the numbers higher.
Chris:
Indianapolis has been the improving team over the last seven weeks. They’re up four points of value, and Buffalo’s been slipping a little bit. But there was a huge difference between these teams at one point, so while that seems to be trending one way, Buffalo got a little healthy last week. And I just see the value on Buffalo here. The Buffalo defense is getting a little bit worse, and Indianapolis’ offense is getting better. But I just have to go with … my numbers say go with Buffalo here. And I’m going to go with … I already went with Buffalo.
Matt Landis:
When you say that seven and a half isn’t a point at what you like it anymore, would you say the cap is minus seven, minus 120? Or is that current minus seven, minus 115 where you draw the line with the bills?
Chris:
You’d like a seven minus 120. I just wouldn’t want to lay that hook necessarily. I mean, sometimes you just have to say I missed it or wait for it to come back. I think Indianapolis is going to get more support, and those seven and a half should disappear. I mean, Indianapolis is a darn good team. And that’s what makes me like this a little bit more because it is such a difficult game to bet. When you just look at the optics of Indianapolis getting seven, that seems like a lot of points.
Matt Landis:
Yeah. It almost feels weird to see the Colts getting more than a touchdown against anybody in the league right now. And I’ll add to your point, Chris, that if we do see it tick up to seven and a half, I think the Bills still have at least plenty of teaser appeal in that scenario. I mean, with the Colts last week, they got up 17-nothing on the Jags, but that was not a backdoor cover for Jacksonville. The Colts ended up losing to the Jags in yards per play. They benefited from a special team’s touchdown. So possibly an opportunity just to ask the Bills to do a little more than win outright at home in this one if we do see the sevens disappear. T.A., what are you looking for in this matchup?
T.A.:
Yeah, I tend to agree with Chris here. I think the Colts are slightly overrated. Obviously, they look good lately but look who they’ve played. I mean the Jets, the Jags, Houston. I think their numbers are a little bit inflated. I mean, Buffalo’s defense is really the story here. I know everyone talks about Josh Allen, but this is the number one defense in the NFL according to the most advanced metrics. And the Colts really rely on Jonathan Taylor. Right? He gets that engine revved up. And so you’ve got the number two run defense in the NFL in Buffalo, so if they can stymie Jonathan Taylor and force Carson Wentz to beat you, I think you’re in a bit advantageous situation if you’re Buffalo.
T.A.:
And I think the Colts’ defense is overrated. They can stop the run, but they are not a good pass defense. I mean, this is a bottom 10 pass defense by most metrics. And so I think Josh Allen will have success here. There’s been injuries in the secondary for the Colts. I know Xavier Rhodes missed the last game, so who knows what happens here. But I think that this is a little bit of buying high or selling high on the Colts here and getting the Bills at a good number at seven. I haven’t taken it yet, but I think I’m eyeing that number. And also, keep an eye on the weather. I mean, this is about the time where, in a place like Buffalo, you get the elements. And they’ve got a huge advantage if there’s wind and rain, et cetera. And I’m not sure I trust Carson Wentz in that type of weather. So keep an eye there on the weather report and see if that helps with Bills as well.
Matt Landis:
Was I mistaken? I thought I heard Carson Wentz is expecting a baby approximately this weekend.
T.A.:
Yeah.
Matt Landis:
And he might actually miss the game, potentially.
T.A.:
That’s a good point. I did see that his wife is due. I think they were going to try to induce her, so I don’t know if they’re doing that intentionally to make sure he doesn’t miss a game. But yeah, I would double-check that because I think you’re right.
Matt Landis:
I’m sure NFL officials are at the hospital with their little needles ready to go. Yeah, possibly the element of a freeroll with the Colts quarterback situation in this one. And yeah, the weather will be interesting because Wentz did seem to acquit himself pretty well in monsoon-like conditions in San Francisco a couple of Sunday nights ago, but it could be a whole different animal in Buffalo and certainly with the Colts being a dome team and the Bills used to these conditions that might favor them, like you said, T.A.
T.A.:
Oh, remember. You say he acquitted him. Well, I mean, he threw a lot of 50/50 balls, and it was all PIs. I think they had five or six pass interference penalties that they benefited from, so he didn’t really do much. It was just throwing the ball up, and maybe that’s a good strategy in that weather. But yeah, that was an interesting game.
Matt Landis:
Yeah. Yeah. Fair point. Well, let’s go from a pivotal AFC showdown on Sunday to a big NFC matchup pitting the Saints against the Eagles in Philadelphia. Bet US currently has the Eagles a short favorite minus one at minus 120. Total has ticked down to 43 and a half. T.A., what do you like in this one?
T.A.:
Yeah, I’m on the under, and it was 44 earlier today, but I think either number is fine. I think 43 is the key one. But really, for me, this handicap starts off with just the game flow and the strategy for both of these teams. We already know that the Saints are a very run-heavy offense. They’re number two in the NFL in run percentage. And with Trevor Siemian back there, they don’t want him to make a ton of mistakes, so they’re very conservative, in general.
T.A.:
But the Eagles have flipped from one of the most pass-heavy teams in the NFL. They were 10th in the NFL in the first seven games in pass rate, to now they’re the most run-heavy team in the last three games if you look at the numbers. And so they are really flipping the script, and it makes sense with Jalen Hurts back there. But they’re going to try to run the ball a lot because it’s been working. But the Saints are number one in the NFL in run defense, so I think they’re going to hit a stone wall. So for me, that’s really the first part of my handicap is just the game flow is just going to be slow, kind of grind it out. Both teams are going to be conservative and try to run the ball. And so that starts off my handicap in terms of why I like this under here.
Matt Landis:
Yeah. And, Chris, with T.A. Mentioning that game flow possibly going back and forth the way these teams approach the ground game, does that play into your look at this as the popcorn game from a line movement perspective, not really knowing who’s going to be favored over the course of these next few days?
Chris:
Well, I think T.A. is right. We’ve noticed. I think they went … I forget how many games … around six games without having 150 yards rushing. And now they’ve had four in a row of 150 yards-plus. So they’re getting their yards on the ground, which is a clock burner. And obviously, they’re meeting the brick wall of a great New Orleans defense, so it should be interesting to see how that pans out. I would definitely lean in the under there.
Chris:
As far as a side goes, I’m sitting this one out for now. I think that there’s going to be some line movement here, and I just want to … If I don’t have to make a decision early in the week on games, I’m really trying to shy away from it with all of these COVID issues popping up. And I think they’re going to continue, so be careful about that. I’m playing with fire with betting some of these early games, but I just don’t want to miss certain lines. But games around pick, I can let those percolate.
Matt Landis:
Yeah, and this is one where I’m going to be on the lookout for the Saints possibly to tick up to plus one and a half. They are at plus one and a half at some of the sportsbooks across the market. I think that last week, the fact that they still covered despite missing two extra points and the Titans being gifted a touchdown to cap off the first half, it says a lot about how good the Saints really could be. That wasn’t necessarily reflected in that final score.
Matt Landis:
And on the Eagles’ side of things, yes, they were the better team in Denver last week, but not to the tune of 30 to 13, so I look for a pretty competitive matchup here. And, T.A., that has me liking your look at the under, knowing that that could imply some reduced variance, which is almost always a positive, looking to tease an underdog up through a touchdown. And when it comes to the Eagles on defense, how does that factor into your handicap here?
T.A.:
[Colin Hyde 00:15:07] all year, if you’ve, if you’ve paid attention. Against the elite quarterbacks, they’ve been shredded. So when you face Mahomes and Dak Prescott and Tom Brady, some of the elite quarterbacks in the NFL, I mean, they’ve allowed 34 points per game to those five quarterbacks. And against everybody else, they’ve held them to 12 points per game. And it’s really just a separation between, are you a good quarterback, or are you back quarterback? And that’s a scheme that they run.T.A.:
I know the defensive coordinator a little bit, and his scheme is very similar to Brandon Staley’s. It’s prevent big plays. Don’t let anything go over your head. Keep everything in the middle of the field, and then make your tackles, and hope that your front four can get enough pass rush. And so, it’s one of those situations where the good quarterbacks will just pick you apart. They’re not going too deep. They’re just going to take what the defense gives you. But these less accurate, I guess, quarterbacks that are not in the elite category either don’t have the patience to do that. They’ll take some shots and take some chances, or they’re just not accurate enough.
T.A.:
So you get that situation that we saw last week with Teddy Bridgewater and some others where they just can’t take advantage. And so I think Trevor Siemian’s obviously in that same boat. And I don’t think that this offense is going to really take advantage like some of the other really good ones have in prior weeks. So I think this defense is conducive to keep this offense to allure scoring total. And like I said, everything’s just going to be dink and dunk. And that’s what Trevor Siemian wants to do. I think that’s what Sean Payton wants him to do.
T.A.:
And if they get Alvin Kamara back, you think there’s going to be a lot of dump-offs to him as well. So I think that’s all conducive for this under, and I think I agree with Chris. It’s hard to take some of these games early in the week. For me, I wouldn’t take an over right now with any of these games because you lose one quarterback like the Big Ben we lost on Saturday with COVID. You lose a big offensive weapon, and it’s a huge deal. But on the under, there’s really nobody that you’re going to lose that’s going to make teams score more. Right? It’s mainly on offense that’s the key issue here, so I don’t mind taking an early under. So I’m okay with that here.
Chris:
Yeah, I can’t find a reason to bet Philadelphia, so I’m curious where the line moves. I’m looking for the Kamara news and any other news that might develop, but I’m definitely not looking Philadelphia’s way.
Matt Landis:
Yeah, so the official play here, courtesy of T.A., under 43 and a half in Philadelphia. And it looks like points might be at a premium in that one. And in our next game, Chris, points might be at a premium for one team, much more than the other. We’re going to get to Baltimore taking on the Bears in Chicago. The Ravens now up to a six and a half point favorite, total 45 and a half. Chris, let us know who you like in this one.
Chris:
It’s just pretty simple. I’m going back to the well, exact same situation, Baltimore laying six on the road against a bad team. And unlike Miami, I’m looking for them to replicate what happened with Buffalo after their disaster. They came back strong the following game, and I have the confidence that the Ravens will. I think the Chicago defense matches up well for the Baltimore offense, and I think they’re going to be able to move the ball. And I don’t think … even though Baltimore’s defense isn’t what it used to be, it’s actually below average, believe it or not. It’s always been in the top 10, and it’s closer to 20 than 15, so a little bit of concern there.
Chris:
But Chicago doesn’t have much of an offense anyway. They’re third from the bottom offensively, so I think that Chicago is going to have a tough time here. Baltimore is going to come to play. And with home and away not really meaning much anymore, to get Baltimore under a touchdown, I think is pretty darn solid. I like Baltimore a lot here. Chicago is in the very bottom tier in the league, and Baltimore is in the top 10. They got to be more than a touchdown apart.
Matt Landis:
Yeah, I’m not going against you in this one, but I was surprised when I did my own little postmortem on last Thursday night’s game. That seemed like a pretty fair result with that Dolphins win over the Ravens. I mean, Miami only went three for 13 on third down, one for four in the red zone, seven more penalties for 77 more yards. That doesn’t sound like a team that’s going to cover, let alone went outright as that kind of underdog.
Matt Landis:
But Miami outgained the Ravens by more than a yard per play with a combination of Jacoby Brissett and Tua with his injured finger at quarterback. I’m inclined to write that off like Jacksonville over Buffalo and Denver over Dallas a couple of weeks ago. One thing I’ll be looking for here, I mean, Lamar Jackson, with all those safety blitzes Miami continuously threw him, shame on you if you fool me once. But if that’s going to come all day long, you’ve got to adjust at some point. So, T.A., what are you expecting in this matchup between the Ravens and the Bears?
T.A.:
Yeah, I think it’s a really interesting one. I think they are going to come correct. They’ve got extra rest here to figure out that all-out blitz because this is a copycat league. And I’m sure that the Bears saw what Miami did, and they’re going to do a lot of the same. They don’t have the corners that Miami has, so if they do that, I think they’ll get burned a lot more than Miami was. It’ll be interesting to see. Khalil Mack, is he going to play? That’s a huge issue. I think Roquan Smith is also questionable. So obviously, it’ll help the Bears’ defense if those guys come back. But otherwise, their secondary has been struggling all year.
T.A.:
I will say on the other side of the ball, the Ravens blitz a lot. We know that. Wink Martindale, the defensive coordinator, has always blitzed a lot, top five blitz rate. Justin Fields has been better lately, but he’s not good against the blitz in general, so I think that that’s a good matchup on that end. I don’t have a bet on here either way right now. I think, honestly, if I like the Ravens, I think I would wait only because I want to see what happens with Mack and Roquan Smith. You might get a better number if they both play, but otherwise, I’m just staying away.
Matt Landis:
Yeah. Well, the official play here, Chris, laying the points with the Ravens, Baltimore minus six and a half in Chicago. One more game before we hit the Thursday nighter, and that would be your guys’ favorite teams, Detroit, traveling to Cleveland. The Browns, currently a double-digit favorite. That’s a flat minus 10 for Cleveland, total 44 and a half. T.A., your Browns look like they were on the right trajectory after stomping the Bengals a couple of weeks ago. Didn’t really show up in New England. What are you expecting from them this weekend?
T.A.:
I mean, they are … talk about Jekyll and Hyde. I mean, that’s my Browns, especially the defense. It was so embarrassing. I was on the Browns last week, and it was just … they had a great opening drive, go up seven-nothing, and then just got torched the rest of the way. And really, it’s funny. They are a top 10 defense on early downs, but when it comes to third downs, when it comes to red zone, they’re the worst in the NFL. I mean, they’re horrible, and they just keep getting hit by these screen passes and misdirections. And it’s really … I don’t know if it’s a coordinator issue, or if it’s a personnel issue, but they keep getting hit on those high lever situations. I think it’s a bad team. The lines will be fine.
T.A.:
I mean, we saw Jared Goff last week in cold weather and rain. He couldn’t complete a pass. I mean, I think he, what, threw for 50 yards in regulation? So we’ll see what the weather is like in Cleveland on Sunday. They can run the ball, and the Browns can be run on a little bit, so they’ll be interesting there. But man, I was not too thrilled with that performance last week, so no play for me on this one. But I’m sure they’ll be a popular survivor pick, though, based on what’s left and who’s remaining, so that should be interesting.
Matt Landis:
Yeah, a popular pick among the precious few left in any survivor pools. And there’s that running joke about Jared Goff’s hand size. But in bad weather, maybe there’s something to it because I mean, last week, one of my favorite tidbits I took away from digging into week 10, Detroit, fewer yards per pass than the Steelers had turnovers in that game. So the adage goes, oftentimes it’s a shame somebody had to lose. It feels like it would’ve been a shame if somebody had to win that game. So perhaps the tie, a fitting result in Pittsburgh.
Matt Landis:
But that’s not enough to get me on Cleveland here because that performance last weekend just had red flags all over the place. I feel like I might be backing off the Browns bandwagon as quickly as I hopped on with a teaser against the Patriots last week. Chris, you were early to the party with the Patriots. We’ll get to them again in a moment. But what are you looking for with your Lions heading to Cleveland this weekend?
Chris:
Well, I feel bad for those survivor people last week. It just seems so unfair to lose on a tie, so just thinking about them. But I’ve been able to pivot on this Cleveland team very well. They were my very most important pick two weeks ago, and I was against them with my very most important pick of last week. So that’s one of the reasons why I’m really happy with the model kicking in. If I’m able to pivot on and against teams week to week, I know something’s working right for me. I don’t see any value in this. I cannot believe my numbers actually say this line is dead on. I mean, usually, there’s some space with where my numbers come out. I can’t believe this says this is where the line is supposed to be. How can these two teams be that close?
Chris:
But Cleveland has lost over seven points in value over the last six weeks. I mean, think about that against the average team. I mean, they’re plummeting. I’ve never seen a team so red on my chart. And Detroit themselves have lost over five points in value. These teams are both dogs with fleas, lots of problems. Campbell’s going to take over the play-calling. I’m sure that’ll go well. And Goff is Goff. Can they get up again after they had to buy to get ready for Pittsburgh and have that end result, the picking up field goal kickers from practice squads every other week? Just have to stay away from this one.
Matt Landis:
Yeah. Anthony [Win 00:25:18], not the best play-caller in the league. Who would’ve thought? And, Chris, one follow-up to a point you made with the Browns plummeting. You said you’ve never seen a team so red on that chart. It’s interesting because their defense a couple of weeks ago looked like it finally got healthy, and there was a lot to like about them moving forward. Do you think this might have to do with the status of Baker Mayfield? What do you make of the causes behind Cleveland falling so precipitously, according to your model?
Chris:
I had the Jets. The Cleveland defense has fallen the second-worst by itself, out of the entire league over the last six weeks. I mean, it’s bad. And obviously, their offense fell also, but I don’t know what to make of it. It just seems like they fall apart. I think they’re screwed because Mayfield knows he was the $30 million man at the start of the season. He’s going to be lucky to find a third of that at this point. I don’t think the team has confidence in him, and I think just their disorganization and just the way they just don’t seem coordinated and organized. And they really don’t have any excuses for it. I feel like there’s some bad coaching involved because I think other teams are making adjustments on them, and Cleveland doesn’t have an answer.
T.A.:
I know. It’s crazy. So they’re number two in the NFL and early down success rate on defense, so very, very good. But they’re 29th on third downs versus expected. Their 27th in red zone touchdowns allowed. It’s like they do everything right on first and second down, but once you get the third down, once you get in the red zone, they can’t do anything. And to me, that’s totally coaching. Normally I’m a stats guy. I would say, “Oh, we would expect some regression here when you’ve got your early success rate that good. You shouldn’t have such a big separation on third and fourth downs.”
T.A.:
But this is the second year in a row that this has been happening with this team, and this defense, and it’s brand new personnel. I mean, besides Miles Garrett, it’s all new guys that they brought in, and the same thing is happening. So I got to put away my stats, my statistics, in the background and look at what’s going on underneath the surface. I’m not sure that’s going to regress because it’s been happening for too long now.
T.A.:
I think they’ll be fine on Sunday against this bad Detroit team. They’ll be up for this. Typically, teams that lose by 30-plus points have come back and covered the spread at a pretty high rate the next week. But the Lions are also winless. And so that’s another … you got to be careful. These winless teams, late in the year, typically do well against the spread as well. So two forces hitting each other, so I’d stay away.
Chris:
But I saw that their win percentage is no longer 000. It’s 056 or something.
T.A.:
A technicality, right?
Chris:
Yeah.
Matt Landis:
Yeah. Well, T.A., as you talk about the Browns’ early down success rate against what’s happening on late downs, I can’t help but think of just a lot of building you up just to let you down. Almost some Charlie Brown vibes coming out of those Cleveland Browns, so we’ll see if they can’t right their ship or get some positive regression and what usually seems to be more predictive with some good early down numbers.
Matt Landis:
But let’s move on and talk about the team that just throttled the Browns last Sunday. And that would be the Patriots traveling to Atlanta on Thursday night, where New England is now up to a seven-point favorite on the road, minus 105. So some reduced vig there with New England, total 47 and a half. Chris, you were on New England last week. How do you feel about them this week?
Chris:
Last week? I bet them five times this year. At the beginning of the year, I told you this team was going to be good and had a shot at winning the division. They’re one game out, and they still get to play Buffalo twice, so they’re exactly where I thought they might be. It just started off a little strange. There’s two people. You either have some respect for New England, or you don’t. And I can’t blame people for not being believers in New England because, on a superficial look, they haven’t beaten real quality teams. But the two close calls they had with Dallas and Tampa Bay, they were pretty injured. And that was when Jones was in the infancy of his NFL career. Now he’s got a lot of games under his belt. New England is healthy again. That offensive line is dominating.
Chris:
And I don’t like this spot per se because it seems like a flat spot, so to speak. But I can’t concern myself with a flat spot because the metrics on this game are night and day. Atlanta, I’ve been supportive of Atlanta. I’ve bet them recently. I said that they would be in the playoff hunt when they had two wins. They made it to the wild card spot, and they’re falling back down to earth rapidly. You’ve got Peterson out, who’s a return guy. He’s key on the offense. And this offense is already bottom five in the league.
Chris:
So I don’t know where they’re going to get their points facing a New England team unless new England makes mistakes. And that’s how Atlanta is able to gain what they get is when other teams make mistakes and hand them something. But these teams do not compare. They just do not compare. And again, the same thing I said on the Baltimore. If I don’t have to lay more than a touchdown in this league, and I’ve got a top-tier team playing a bottom-tier team, I should be able to lay that touchdown.
Matt Landis:
Yeah, and my initial reaction … I’m glad to hear that from you, because, I mean, plus seven is a major adjustment from where we thought this line would be just a few days ago. And it was hard not to take it as a knee-jerk reaction. But to your point, I mean, we’ve got Bill Belichick once again just masterfully navigating the arc of a season. I think of the Patriots almost like the Moneyball team where, when reading Moneyball, I recall Billy Bean. Of course, a different sport with baseball, but spending the first two months of this season just evaluating what he’s got.
Matt Landis:
The next two months, acquiring the pieces he needs. And then those final two months, playing with his A team. I feel like Belichick takes the Patriots on a similar trajectory oftentimes, and we might be in the middle of that as we speak. Also, a short week that tends to favor a guy like Belichick against a rookie head coach, so a strong initial link to the Falcons. But I think I’m back on the fence here. T.A., what do you make of the Thursday night matchup?
T.A.:
Yeah, I mean, my intuition initially was you got to take Atlanta. It’s either Atlanta or nothing at seven because it is a major overreaction. And you got one … I mean, I would love to see if any database can look this up. I don’t have access to it. But you have one team that is coming off a 38 point win versus another team that’s off a 43 point loss. Have we ever seen a situation where you have those combining forces, such a large margin for both sides? I can’t remember having that collision course. So that’s an interesting one just to see historically if that’s ever happened before.
T.A.:
But that Cordarrelle Patterson injury is a big deal if he doesn’t play because he’s such a Swiss Army Knife, and they don’t have any other weapons outside of Kyle Pitts. I mean, they have nothing without Calvin Ridley. So that is a huge injury issue. But yeah, like you mentioned, getting Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels versus a rookie head coach on a short week is just a gigantic advantage. So for me, I’m staying away. Like I said, there’s too many factors that would lead me against Atlanta. I just can’t. I just can’t lay it in this spot just based on all those forces. Personally, this is not something that I like to do.
T.A.:
The Patriots, as well as they played, they’re not a team that you normally … they’re not like a high-powered offense that just can easily drop 40 on you like the Chiefs used to do, and the Rams could do sometimes. To me, that’s just not the type of offense they are. They’re more conservative. They’re more just get the win and get out of there. So it’s harder to lay that many points, in my opinion. Like I said-
Chris:
Where said you rank their offense?
T.A.:
Well, I think their offense is in the 12 to 15 range. How’d they beat the Browns last week? They got to a lot of third downs. They were not good on early downs. The Browns actually held them. It was Mac Jones’ pinpoint accuracy on third and five, third and six. That’s not something that you’re normally going to sustain for a long stretch. Now, I think Mac Jones has been great, but that’s difficult to do. And they don’t have explosive weapons on offense. They beat you by scheming you up. So they ran a lot of reverses. They ran a lot of screen passes against the Browns. The Browns are not a disciplined defense, so they got away with it. They’re not going to drop back and throw 50 yards downfield.
T.A.:
I mean, two weeks ago against Carolina, they didn’t do much against that defense. They just got a pick six. They got another short field against Darnold. They were able to score enough. Three weeks ago, against the Chargers, they also had a pick six. They didn’t score. I think they’ve only scored two touchdowns in the two games prior to last week. So I just don’t see them … I mean, they’re efficient, and they’re solid, but they’re not an explosive enough offense for me to lay the seven in that type of spot.
T.A.:
I mean, excellent team, and they’re proving me wrong. And they’ve been doing it for years where they outplay their metrics all the time. Right? That’s why they cover the spread so often under Brady and Belichick because if you look at their pure numbers in a modeling perspective, you would never … oh, I’m going to … you would always fade them because they don’t fit the box that the rest of the NFL does, so it’s hard to model them out from that perspective. So it’s very difficult to bet on them or bet against them.
Chris:
I want you to go back and take a look at your offensive numbers. They are off the chart over the last six weeks offensively. They’ve gained nine points in value, just offensively, just offensively over the last six weeks. I mean, they have quietly …
Matt Landis:
Oh, just when Chris was making his big point, I think we might have lost him for a moment. We’ll give him-
Chris:
But I will say-
Matt Landis:
Oh, Chris, we just got you back. We just lost you for a few seconds. You were saying the Patriots have quietly, presumably, done something remarkable. Fill us in.
Chris:
They’ve quietly stormed through that top 10 door, and they’re knocking on the top five offenses in the league. They’ve gained nine points of value, just offensively overall. They’ve gained 12 points of value from where they sat seven weeks ago versus the average team. I mean, they started off in the doldrums and have just soared. I mean, they’re doing everything right, right now.
T.A.:
Is that schedule adjusted at all? Because yeah, they have against the Jets in some bad defenses. I mean, again, if you look at DVOA Football Outsiders, they’ve got the 23rd ranked offensive schedule posing defenses. I’ve got them 28th when you look at the success rate. So they’ve played a bunch of patsies on defense. So I think if you adjust some of those numbers, it’s not as impressive. Now, the Falcons are horrible. I mean, they might be the worst defense in NFL, so you might be right. They may put a 40 on Thursday. But I just want to see them against … I mean, against Carolina, they couldn’t move the ball. They didn’t do anything on offense. It was all-
Chris:
Well, Carolina is a top six defense.
T.A.:
Absolutely. So you’re right. Against Atlanta, they might explode and score 30 or 40 points. I’m just saying, in general, against a decent defense, I’m still not totally … They have to scheme up everything in order to have a big explosion, in my opinion, against a good defense. So I think that’s all it is, and that’s where the coaching advantage lies. That’s why they’re so good. That’s why Belichick is the best of all time, and Josh McDaniels will be a head coach probably next year.
Chris:
Can we not agree, though, that in the NFL, a top five team should be able to win a game by a touchdown or more versus a bottom 10 team?
T.A.:
Yeah, if you think they’re a top five team.
Matt Landis:
[crosstalk 00:37:23] We touched on this last week, and I pushed back on Chris on this last week, and it did not age well for me. So I hear-Matt Landis:
[crosstalk 00:37:29] Chris might be onto something with New England.Chris:
You guys laughed at me last week when I had them where they are, and then Football Outsiders comes out with them at number three on DVOA on Monday.
Matt Landis:
Yeah. Well-
T.A.:
You’re getting the last laugh if you get this game on Thursday. No doubt. I mean, I think it’s going to be really interesting next week against Buffalo. That’s really going to be a great game for sure.
Chris:
Yeah, man. Who’s Buffalo beating? They haven’t beaten anybody either.
T.A.:
Very fair.
Matt Landis:
Yeah. The AFC East, certainly a tighter division than we thought it might be just a few weeks ago. The Patriots, a big part of that. And Chris is on the Patriots, laying the touchdown on Thursday night. Just to verbally recap, a few other bets featured on this week’s show. Chris, in addition to the Patriots’ minus seven, laying six and a half with Baltimore, Chicago also laying a touchdown with Buffalo, taking on the Colts. And T.A. under 43 and a half in the Saints-Eagles game.
Matt Landis:
And, guys, we have a question from the chat that will probably lead into some of my bets that I’ll look to get to on our Friday show, asking about teasers and prioritizing a few options this week. The questioner mentions the Patriots, the Bills, the 49ers, Las Vegas. Generally, just wondering what we think the strongest two teaser games would be.
Matt Landis:
I would look at two games that aren’t featured there. The Saints, again, we touched on earlier, not really in teaser territory yet if we’re stuck on the line of minus one. But at minus one and a half for the Eagles, taking the Saints up through seven would be at the top of my list. And I also would say if the Vikings don’t touch three, then getting them up through a touchdown to plus eight and a half hosting the Packers, those would be my top two teaser looks as we sit right now. Do you guys have any thoughts on other teaser options for this week after a couple of pretty brutal weeks in the teaser landscape?
T.A.:
I like the Cowboys if you can get them over a touchdown. I think that their offense is way too good. I’m not convinced the Chiefs are “back.” so I think the Cowboys are a good teaser leg, personally. But I don’t see a ton of other great legs on the teaser line for me personally, so I’ll let Chris answer this one.
Chris:
Yeah, this is a week where you can really go nuts with teasers if that’s where you want to focus. I’m trying to not look at the teasers because I actually see a lot of possible teaser games, and I could rationalize a lot of games. I do like the New Orleans that Matt mentioned, and there’s a handful of others that I don’t see any teaser buster games, so to speak. And that’s what I try to look at also sometimes is, “Well, what team is a teaser that I definitely don’t want to be a part of.” And I don’t see any teams that you can tease that just look awful. Does that make any sense?
Matt Landis:
Yeah. And I think that there’s a lot to be said there for the process versus being too much a prisoner to results of the past couple of weeks. I mean, there are some sharp betters who I really respect who have been doing this successfully for a while. And they’ve mentioned more trepidation with teasers this week than any other time I can recall. And I know it’s because the last couple of weeks have just wiped out long teaser after long teaser, but that’s a two-week sample size. I know the results really seem in the moment, but this board could be a possible way to get things back on track. And it’s not a matter of forcing the hand and getting overextended with it, just expecting too much regression, but just anything in a more normal distribution this week could present a lot of teaser opportunity.
Chris:
What I like to do also, and here’s what I did last week with teasers. I couldn’t get my seven on Dallas the way I wanted it, so I opened up a couple of different teasers with Dallas minus the one and a half into games that I was betting later on anyway. So I was waiting for the Raiders line to percolate. I wasn’t getting my three. So I’m playing Dallas into the Raiders for some.
Chris:
So if Dallas covers, that’s a little bit less I have to bet on the Raiders. And those are the types of things I try to do with parlays and teasers sometimes. If I can have two events that are not going to overlap that have a dual purpose, so to speak, I’ve been trying to look toward doing that. It’s worked really well with MMA, and it can work well in any sport.
T.A.:
I will say this. I’m not a huge teaser guy. I know it’s been successful lately. I’ll do it on occasion. I mean, I lost with the Ravens last week. That gave me a sour taste in my mouth. But I wonder, has anybody done any studies in the recent seasons, if you just parlayed the two teams instead of teasing them, like what the ROI differences would be? Because I feel like the teasers get there with or without the tease. You just parlay. You either would’ve lost it anyway, or you would’ve won a little bit more on a parlay. I don’t know. I haven’t done the analysis, but that’s something that I’m interested in seeing if anybody has done because it feels like it’s not like you needed the tease to win necessarily. Those would’ve won anyway. But maybe I’m wrong. That’s more anecdotal.
Chris:
But they do help. My way of thought, I don’t like to lose. I think what we both have is a fundamental way of winning with sides or totals and such.
T.A.:
Yeah.
Chris:
And it just seems cheap and low-hanging fruit that it bites the hand that feeds us. It just seems like I pay the price on these teasers needlessly when I don’t have to. The fundamentals on just betting these games straight over time is just so much better.
Matt Landis:
Well, one thought T.A. had to your question would be that teasers, you’re paying the same price, whether you’re doing the advantaged user through the key numbers of three and seven. Or if you wanted to use through the zero, go right ahead. You’ll pay the same price. So there’s almost a discount you can get when working with some key numbers when the board gives you those options. And with parlays, I guess it’s less often that you can get those advantageous spots. So it’s paying out the same, but it’s not like key numbers can work in your favor with parleys the same way as teasers. That would be my one thought there.
T.A.:
Oh. I didn’t mean money line. I meant actually just tease those. Or sorry, parlay just the straight lines. So I’m not talking money line. That’s a different story. You’re right. I wouldn’t money line parlay the same thing because you don’t get the same advantage. But I’m saying that the advantage of getting a teaser on just like a minus seven and a minus seven is more advantageous than just teasing those two games and getting minus 110 over the long run because you make a little bit more on those, and you would’ve lost anyway.
T.A.:
Like the Ravens, if I would’ve taken minus seven and a half, I would’ve lost it. Or if I tease it, I would’ve lost it. So it hurts you both ways, but you get the extra added benefit of the parlay. So that was the only thing I was thinking. Like I said, I haven’t done the analysis, so I might be way off on that. But I know many years ago, when teasers weren’t as popular, that was something that a wise man once told me is, if you just parlay those two games anyway, you would’ve made a lot more in the long run. But that’s a story for another day.
Chris:
Oh, there’s just too many people doing the wrong things with it. They’re taking teams that are six or a five and a half down to the zero, or they’re crossing zeros. They could have looked at alternate lines and had a better bet by itself than throwing it into a teaser. Because if you’re not getting a wager that is going through two key numbers, it’s just not worth it. And if your money line wagers are off, it’s sometimes just better to play it straight because you have to have a minus 270 or 275 value as a minimum in each teaser leg. Otherwise, you’re just better off playing it straight. So there’s a lot of things to consider, and people are stubborn. And they don’t go through the threes and the sevens, and they could’ve had a better bet on an alternate line or just betting it straight up.
Matt Landis:
Yeah, and I think that’s my ultimate answer. T.A., I understand you didn’t mean this as a money line parlay proposition, but the amount of times that I know I’ve had a team teased down from seven and a half and they win by three, that tells me that that’s more valuable than perhaps just parlaying minus seven and a half with minus seven and a half. But again, I haven’t crunched those numbers. So if you’re teasing through key numbers, that’s probably the way to go. If you’re just teasing more or less because the extra points feel good regardless of the numbers, then yeah, the extra payout on the parlay might be worthwhile.
T.A.:
Yeah, and I think the fact that we’ve seen underdogs do so well this year, I mean, that really benefits. That makes sense. Right? Like you getting a dog through a three and a seven on the upside or getting the favorite down to a one or a two, that definitely makes a lot of sense. But no, I mean, I totally get it. I know a lot of people, a lot of pros have done really well with it. And I’ve done it myself, so I can’t complain.
Chris:
And leave those totals alone. Geez.
T.A.:
Yeah, that’s the other thing. Don’t tease a total. That’s probably the biggest mistake. Right?
Matt Landis:
Yeah, a fitting way to wrap this up, and T.A., maybe a good offseason project to consider. I think you bring up a really good point there. But I think, at this point, that’ll probably do it for this episode of Teaser Talk, along with our early look at the week 11 card. Good questions sparked some good conversations. So thanks to everybody for tuning in.
Matt Landis:
Again, if you’re with us on YouTube, go ahead and give us a quick thumbs up. Subscribe to the channel. And if you want to get a start on your week 11 portfolio, you can do so at Bet US. Sign up today using the promo code NFL2021 for a 125% signup bonus. We’ll be back along with Scott Kellen back in his usual seat on Friday to break down the rest of the weekend board. That’ll be Friday at 12:00 PM Eastern, at 9:00 AM Pacific. And we’ll see you then right back here at Bet US, where the game begins.
