TJ:
Don’t put the announcer jinx on him on a Thursday. But why don’t we go ahead and do this, and take a look at how well that we’ve been doing as of late here on the show before we get into the slate? The overall record on the show keeps going up and up. Look at Scott Kellen, now well above 500, Chris Farley above 500. Look at the show, look at the show down at the bottom. If you have stuck with us, and continue to just modestly make the plays and listen to the advice, you’d be doing pretty well right about now. And at this point now we’re into the home stretch of the season, and Scott, to not go overboard, but it has gotten a little easier, has it not, to get these right and more consistently? Because you’ve got a larger sample size, you’ve seen more from the different teams. Just elaborate on that part if you would.
Scott:
Yeah. We said this a little bit last week too I think, TJ. There’s more information. I don’t think you can ever… At least that’s the way I do it, and everyone has their own way, but I don’t think you can ever underestimate injuries, especially at certain positions or cluster injuries. We’ve talked about those every week. We’ll talk about them again today. They matter, and you just get better information. You can start defining teams home and away against good and bad, that’s my whole thought process, along with obviously finding a number that has value, but I think it’s a little bit easier.
And this season is a lot of chunks of season. What happened in weeks one through three, and a team might have been horrible or bad or good, they can be… We’re seeing this with the Raiders a little bit right now. You’ve got to understand the dynamics of why teams are changing and getting better. Maybe it’s the level of competition they’re playing. There’s a lot of things that wraps up all in that. We’ll talk about Dallas later, but Dallas has gone through a string of teams that are really bad defensively, and they’re scoring left and right. It might provide some good value going against Dallas in a few weeks when they play someone good. So all those things wrapped into one, I think give you a good chance to succeed late in the year.
TJ:
And then you have my Buccaneers who… Look, I’m not going to complain about six and six, I’m not going to complain about the ultimate outcome Monday night. It didn’t look very good for a long time, but they found a way to win. The Buccaneers are equal opportunity right now. They can’t score against anybody. 21 points is about the max out, it’s usually somewhere around 17. The days of scoring 30 points a game for Tom Brady and the Buccaneers just… They’re not there. At this point, we know what the sample size is. 30 points in a game would be an aberration for the Bucs on that point. Chris, just any follow-up, before we get into the plays, and we’re going to get into all the different games here in just a second, any other follow-up thought on… You have a better understanding right now as November becomes December on who teams are, and does it help you? It has to help you some. How much in the handicap?
Chris:
Yeah. It absolutely helps me, especially as far as team identity goes. The season started with so much parity and certain teams I think that none of us expected to succeed that early. I’m on the BetUS NBA show too, and I would say we saw the same thing in the NBA. So across a few leagues, there’s younger players coming up, teams unexpectedly doing well, but as usual things do regress to the mean. I don’t want to jinx your Bucs, TJ, or maybe get too excited, but the thing about a team like the Bucs too is there is still plenty of time for a team like that, who still has many, many of the pieces that they had when they went to the Super Bowl two years ago, to really turn the jets on.
We’ll get more into that game, obviously injuries, so their offensive line isn’t helping, but we still have over a quarter of the season left. And of course the playoffs is a whole nother season. Some teams, depending on their leadership, some of the intangibles, maybe how cohesive they are as a unit, they can either flounder or really thrive. So the NFL is broken up into a few different seasons, and down the home stretch now.
TJ:
All right. You ready to get to it, boys? Let’s do it. By the way, for the audience, thank you for finding us live, as you’ve found us here on this Thursday. And we’ve got Thursday Night Football coming up tonight at SoFi Stadium. It is the Rams and the Raiders. The Rams again in complete disarray, injured at quarterback, injured all over the place. The Raiders come in, as Scott alluded to, having now won three straight, with the win over the Chargers last week following up the two overtime road wins. And so the Raiders are a seven point favorite at the defending Super Bowl champion Rams. That’s more about how bad it’s been for the Rams. The total is 43. There’s not an official play here. Scott Kellen, real quick, give me a thought or two. We don’t know who the Rams quarterback’s going to be, at least for a sustained amount of time here, because of injury and having just signed Baker Mayfield, released at his own request by Carolina early in the week. Give me a thought or two on what do we make of this?
Scott:
Yeah. We don’t know. I mean I think maybe Wolford, but he’s got a neck injury. Maybe Bryce Perkins, maybe Mayfield like you said. It’s an interesting game. Last week the Rams scored 23 against Seattle, which was shocking for this offense, given all the issues they’ve got. They averaged 4.1 yards a pass, or a play I think. 4.9 yards a pass, 4.1 yards a play. So they weren’t good, but they actually ran the ball pretty well against that Seattle defense, and I think that helped them get to the 23 points.
I mention that because they’re playing another team… I think of the Raiders, kind of like Seattle, not a great defense, can obviously score points on offense, and somehow the Rams are able to stick around with them. You got to go back to whatever week it was that the Raiders played Jacksonville on the road, and I brought this up, and it’s taken till now to have it sprout up again. But since Derek Carr got there, this is kind of amazing. The Raiders are 5-22-1 against the spread as a road favorite, 0-8 their last eight games against the spread as a favorite. In that Derek Carr era, they have never won any of those games by more than seven, and only won three of those games by more than three points. They are not winning these games on the road by margin at all.
I show a little bit of value with the Raiders, not enough to make a play. And given what I just said, I don’t think I ever would. If this went this seven and a half, maybe I would consider a teaser down to the one and a half, and you got a pretty short number here where they could still accomplish that and still fit that same profile of not doing very well on the road, and there’s a chance here. All the things that the Rams do that are bad in offense, the Raiders are equally bad on defense. They also won’t have Rock Ya-Sin, one of their cornerbacks, pretty good cornerback. Andrew Billings, a defensive tackle, they’re not going to have him as well. Obviously the Rams got all these issues, including Aaron Donald being out again.
The last thing I would say about the Rams, just looking here, their major losses this year have come against Buffalo, San Francisco twice, Dallas, Kansas City, all very good teams. A little bit of an outlier when they lost by 10 at the start of this non-Stafford streak to Arizona. But all their other games have been fairly close. So I’d be very hesitant to lay a lot of points with the Raiders, maybe tease it, but I’d have to go to seven and a half to get value in that teaser, otherwise no play for me.
TJ:
All right. Good enough. We’ve spent plenty of time talking about the Rams and whether they’ve checked out and how injured they are, et cetera. It’s an awful start for them. Back to the Raiders, a thought or two here, Chris Farley. Do not snicker, folks. If the Raiders get a win tonight to get them to six and seven, they’re on the fringe of the AFC playoff picture, and that’s quite a turnaround. It would be four straight wins. That’s quite a turnaround from the awful start they had, where they couldn’t win a game the first month or so of the season. Chris, a couple of thoughts real quick, particularly on the Raiders.
Chris:
The problem for the Raiders if they want to make the playoffs is going to be those final two weeks, because I believe they have the Chiefs in one of them, and I think the 49ers in another, so it’s a really tough finish there in the final two games. But in this game I think the key for the Raiders is going to continue to be Josh Jacobs, and if they can get him going, he has a questionable tag again, but he’s had that the past few weeks, still plays, still gets way over 100 yards rushing. He has a very high percentage in their passing game as well. So he’s always an option if you want to look at some props, because I think the Raiders need him. The Raiders need him to get their offense going, free up some of the passing attack. Davante Adams might be having one of the best years of his career, even if the season isn’t panning out quite how the Raiders wanted it to. He’s eating every single week.
So this is a game where you want to take the Raiders, because they’re showing you some things now, even on defense, Maxx Crosby and that defensive line again after the quarterback a little bit more. Seeing just some good full team effort from the Raiders the past few weeks in those wins. And there’s not much to like about the Rams, but I will say, always in these Thursday night games, it’s a rough spot, you’re on the road, it’s a short week. I know it’s not a long travel spot, Vegas to LA. It’s written about in books. We know it’s not very far away. But that being said, the Rams have nothing to lose in this game. We saw a little bit last week, Wolford throwing the ball out there maybe in some tight spots, but they’re able to take some more risks in this game probably.
And Sean McVay’s going to turn the page, and I think maybe experiment a little bit with their offense too. So I think there could be some more points than people think in this one. Getting close to taking the over, but obviously with the Rams’ setbacks, that’s really tough. So no plays for me, expect the Raiders to win, and they better if they want to get into the playoffs.
TJ:
Well, we shall see. Again, I suspect Baker Mayfield may play a handful of plays. They’ve got to have been working on a couple of things, and if he’s active, I would think that he’s going to be out there maybe for a series or two. Let’s see. Why not? They’re going nowhere. They want to see what he can do at the end of the year here. Who knows? So no official play on Thursday Night Football for the Raiders and the Rams.
Let’s move on to Sunday, and a very intriguing game and line, because the Vikings are the road dog despite a 10 and 2 record, hello, at Detroit. That’s because the :ions are playing better. So the Lions are laying [inaudible 00:11:35] 52 and a half is our total in this one, and we’ve got both guys on this. Chris Farley, I’m going to come right back to you for a thought and an official play, and Scott Kellen’s got one as well. Chris, begin things.
Chris:
Yeah. So in NFL betting communities, this is the talk of the town this week, because how are the Vikings 10-2, how are they underdogs in any situation, let alone against the historically poor performing Lions? But this is obviously a situation where the Lions have a lot of momentum coming into this game. Their offense is really firing all cylinders, well over 350 yards per game, averaging over 30 points per game the last four. I love the protection that Jared Goff has had. Is he a top quarterback in the NFL? Absolutely not. But when you give him that protection, they’re being very aggressive from the jump of these games or getting ahead of teams. And there’s a lot of reasons to like the Lions in this game.
But I will say, I just wrote an article on these Vikings and how their season has went, and how high their luck rating must be. And you got to give the Vikings some credit as to how they finish these games. In almost every one of these one score games, their defense steps up, they limit opposing offenses, and usually opposing teams make an egregious mistake or two, and the Vikings do not. It’s something that Bill Belichick has always said, I don’t know what the exact quote is, but in the NFL, if you want to be a great team, other teams are going to beat you so you can’t beat yourself. And the Vikings are not beating themselves in those situations. So I like teasing up the Vikings in this spot.
I was on a show at another gig with a former NFL player this week, and he was saying how, trust me, these players in the Vikings know that they are being disrespected underdogs, heading on the road as a team that’s 10-2. So I think the Lions are going to win this game. I do. But I’d love the Vikings to keep this close. You could just put a six point teaser on this one and bring them up to eight, which is getting through the key numbers of three and seven, which we obviously know is really important in the NFL. I just give the… A lot of luck has been into this. The Vikings were more than doubled in total yards last week against the New York Jets. So there’s plenty of proof out there that the Vikings have to trip eventually. But I do think taking the Vikings is a pretty safe bet, especially the way they play in the fourth quarter.
TJ:
Scott Kellen, on the other side of the coin, nobody’s laughing at the Lions any more. I know it was the Jaguars last week, but they impressively beat them. And really over the last… Here we go again with the sample size. Over the last six, eight weeks, including the Thanksgiving loss, a narrow loss to the Bills, they’ve played much better, they’ve won games, they’re at home. I’m curious your thought and your official play on the Lions hosting the Vikes.
Scott:
I agree. This Lions team, it’s almost like you talk about the Lions and don’t even talk about Jared Goff. It’s like saying, if you hear about an offensive lineman in a game, it’s probably because he’s creating a lot of penalties and stuff. And with Goff, it simply means… Of course he’s not Patrick Mahomes or any of those elite quarterbacks, but he’s also not screwing anything up. And Chris alluded to it as well, they’ve got a great offensive line, they’ve got some great receivers, and Goff is just that steady influence on a team that’s trying to come up and grow up and be something, and he’s perfect for that. He’s probably playing better, but let’s just say he’s playing the same as with the Rams, he was knocked with the Rams because that was supposed to be an elite team that always thought about going to the Super Bowl. And here he’s just bringing this team along. They’ve got a lot of things they’ve got to do on defense, but man, offensively, they’re pretty dang good.
I was looking… They’ve been a home favorite twice this year, and obviously haven’t been a home favorite a lot over the years. They’ve scored 45 points and 40 points as a home favorite this year. So when they’re deemed to be the superior team, they’re scoring a lot of points here. I’m on this teaser as well with Chris with Minnesota. Vikings win 28-24 earlier in the year at Minnesota, as a six and a half point favorite. About this time last year they went to Detroit, seven point favorite, and they lost that back and forth game 29-27. If I start to look at the profiles of the offense and defense and how have these teams fared against those types of profiles this year, I probably get Detroit 29-26. I’ve got enough value on Minnesota just to make them a play on their own. But I feel better with the tease, just because I don’t know if the regression’s coming at all from Minnesota yet this year. And like Chris said, they’re doing a lot of things right in games, at the end of games. Last week another… And the Jets moved the ball down a lot, and maybe the Jets’ offense is anemic, not like a pretty good Lions offense, but they held them to a lot of field goals.
Last couple things here. They got Dalvin Tomlinson back last week. He’s a pretty good inside rusher for them. They’re probably going to get Cameron Dantzler back, their second best cornerback this week. Dantzler’s not a great cornerback, but he’s a good cornerback, and the games that he’s missed, the last four games, the Vikings have surrendered three of their four highest point totals this year. So that will definitely help them. And maybe with luck, I’m not counting on it, maybe the left tackle Christian Darrisaw, who’s a very important left tackle for them, trying to come back from concussion. They might get him back. I think they’re going to get Dantzler back. I think there’s plenty of value here. To Chris’s point, they probably win, meaning the Lions, but I think there’s way enough value here for Minnesota to come in under the teaser.
TJ:
All right. So the guys are in agreement. Let’s lock them in officially. These will be part of teaser plays coming up here, both on the Vikings and teasing it up to plus 8 here in the matchup with the Lions. And by the way, before we move forward on the BetUS NFL show, let’s move back for one moment to Thursday Night Football, because I need to tell you here on the BetUS Show as we’re live, 1:00 Eastern Time on this Thursday in the 1:00 Eastern Time hour, then we’ve got a couple of odds boosts from betus.com that you can take advantage of. In fact, there is a prop right now for each team to get at least two touchdowns, plus each team to get at least two field goals, that’s been boosted up. So if you like lots of scoring, multiple touchdowns each team, multiple field goals each team, it’s been boosted from plus 500 to plus 600. We were talking about points, points, points on Thursday night. I don’t know if the Rams can get there, I’m just saying, but the odds boost is up.
Plus a Davante Adams anytime touchdown is also odds boosted, plus 86 or more receiving yards for Davante Adams, odds boosted as well tonight on betus.com. Check into those odds boost, look at Thursday Night Football, there we’re good on that. Let’s move on and go back to Sunday, and go to the New York Jets and the Buffalo Bills. Another intriguing game with a large line. The Jets are a 10 point underdog on the road at Buffalo. This is revenge obviously for the Bills, who lost in humiliating fashion to the Jets, blowing a lead earlier in the year at the Meadowlands. So we swing back aboard on this one to Chris Farley, you’re going to have the official play with the Bills laying 10 and the total at 43 and a half. What do we like for that official play in this AFC East matchup?
Chris:
Yeah. So a few things here. First of all, I just think the number’s flat out wrong. I have the Bills as seven and a half point favorites here, and I could actually probably adjust some things and make that seven. The Bills at home, they opened up the season looking like an absolute juggernaut, especially at home. But as the season goes on, things occur, injuries, et cetera. And we are learning now too that this New York Jets team, this might be the best defense in football. Every single week this Jets defense shows up, they shut down your best wide receivers. I mean, Sauce Gardner, forget about Rookie of the Year, he’s having one of the best cornerback years maybe we’ve seen in a long time, Jalen Ramsey type numbers.
And their defensive line stopping the run, they’re very good in that category too. We’re seeing the Bills trying to run the ball a little bit more, which obviously frees up Josh Allen and the misdirection and the passing game. But I think the Jets are going to continue to provide the Bills with a real challenge here. I know that it’s a revenge game for Buffalo coming off that loss to the Jets a few weeks ago, so that makes it a little scary. But Mike White too, I got to give him credit. He fought last week, wasn’t a perfect game, but his wide receivers are wearing these Mike White t-shirts. I won’t say what they [inaudible 00:20:16].
TJ:
They love him. If I can interject, they love him right now. Or maybe it’s also an indication of how much they hated Zach Wilson trying to lead them, but they have rallied around Mike White. There is no doubt, to your point.
Chris:
Yeah. And I just think he feels more like a grownup in the room, who has a lot of gusto out there. Players like Garrett Wilson finally really seeing the targets that he wants. You want your wide receivers to get excited to get out there on the field. Garrett Wilson saying stuff like, “I would go to war with this guy.” So the Jets are all in on this game. The Jets think that they can beat the Bills again, probably.” Getting 10 points, I know it’s always a really tough spot on the road, but there might be some weather complications in this game too, a little bit of precipitation, which that’s going to make the field slippery, sloppy, trench warfare, and I think the Jets can win a lot of those battles. So give me 10 points with New York, got to take it.
TJ:
Scott Kellen, I know you don’t have an official play. There was a lot of discussion and we’ve seen a promotion or two for 3 Dog Thursday, our brother show here on BetUS. There was a lot of discussion about the weather being a factor, a lot of points for the Jets here. One of the handicappers did take them, for what it’s worth, just like Chris just took them. Even if there’s no official play, what’s your thought on Buffalo at home still chasing Kansas City and others at the top for the number one seat in the AFC, in addition to winning the division? A thought real quick on Bills and Jets.
Scott:
Yeah. [inaudible 00:21:38] Cincinnati as well, they’re all in that mix. Cincinnati will play Buffalo later, and having beaten Kansas City, that could be a big game for Cincinnati down the road. A couple things here. Matt Milano linebacker. I don’t think he practiced yesterday. That really bears watching. Very good linebacker for them. And then the left tackle, Dion Dawkins, who did not play last week, see if he comes back. Again, that’s a vital move for them as well. Mike White played these guys last year. It was the fourth of his four games that he played at home in New York against Buffalo. They lost that game 45-17. I think he threw four interceptions, maybe, at least two. So obviously he was not great in that game, but he’s been very good for the Jets so far up to this point. The yards per pass is much, much better.
I look at this… The Jets haven’t played a ton of good defenses this year, but when they have, they’ve scored 16, 17, 20, and 3 points. So I look at this and say… And Buffalo’s a little banged up on defense, they know that, but Jets probably not getting past 17 points this game. Scored 20, 20-17 win in New York against them. But I said, how much is Buffalo going to score to cover this 10 point number? Against good defenses this year, Buffalo has scored… Trying to find them here. 24, 27, and 17. So Buffalo’s probably getting maybe a 24 point range here. So 24-17, that doesn’t cover the 10.
So it’s no play for me, I kind of make the number where it’s at. But I’d be very hesitant on taking Buffalo, because if the Jets get to 17 or so, that’s going to be very tough for Buffalo to cover that number, because I don’t see Buffalo getting a ton of points in this game against that defense. And we all have our own metrics in how we value things, Chris, but right now, one of the metrics I look at, yards per play versus the competition they play, I have the Jets number one in defense.
TJ:
Their defense obviously has kept them in games. There’s no doubt about that. By the way, you are correct, Scott Kellen, a four pick game from Mike White in November of last year against Buffalo, the last game that he played a year ago. Now he’s back, and Chris Farley says, “I’m believing in Mike White. I’m believing in the Jets’ defense. I’m believing enough in them keeping it close in what could be bad weather early in Buffalo, Sunday give me the Jets plus the 10.” We rock along. Thank you for finding us. If you’re just finding us, make sure you hit that like button. Make sure you’re subscribing as we rock on and talk more, including about a Sunday early game with the Steelers and the Ravens, Steelers laying two and a half, total is 37 at the moment.
We don’t know for sure about Lamar Jackson. We believe with the injured knee he’s questionable at best to play, probably not going to play. That’s just me saying that. Again, this is Thursday. What’s going to happen by the time we get to Sunday? I know they were not optimistic when he couldn’t return to the game last week. In any event, Steelers playing much better. I saw a lot of that game with Atlanta. They took it to them. They’ve won some games recently with Indianapolis, and also with the Saints for whatever that’s worth. Now they’re at home, both handicappers on this game. Scott Kellen, let’s go to you. What’s the official play?
Scott:
Yeah. I’m going to make it the second leg of our teaser that we did earlier with the Vikings, so we’re going to tease the Ravens up to eight and a half here. This series is just a close series, and you’d have to go back to 2014… And I’m analyzing this knowing we’re getting eight and a half as opposed to the two and a half. You’d have to go back to 2014, the last time the Ravens lost a game here by more than five points. By the way, Tyler Huntley did play against the Steelers last year, last game of the season in Baltimore. They lost that game 16-13, but a very close game. And Huntley played, I believe, five games last year, started four, came in very early on one that Jackson got hurt. All those games that he played in, they won by three at Chicago, lost by two to Cleveland, lost by one to Green Bay at home, lost by one to the Rams who were a good team last year, and lost by three to Pittsburgh at the end of the year. So he has kept them in games here. They like to run the ball.
I think they’ll get Ronnie Stanley back. I actually favor the Ravens, even with Huntley, by less than half a point here. I think the teaser is the better option here, very low total. Low totals, teased up through the three and seven this year, have been very good. I think 14 and 4, if the total’s 42 or lower. So I’m going to use it as a teaser. I did play this under the total of 38 early in the week, now 37, still probably a play. I don’t think I’d go below 37. Not an official best bet here though, but the teaser, second leg, I do like that.
TJ:
All right, interesting. Chris Farley here on the Ravens, who look to be right there with the Bengals, but this is why it’s a long season. And we’ve seen them struggle offensively, we’ve seen Lamar Jackson injured hip, now Lamar Jackson injured knee. Are the Ravens going to start to falter here at the end of the year? I know you’re in and around the Baltimore area where they’re squawking on everything, on the sports radio, on the internet, on the podcast, on the shows. Any thought, and do you have an official play here as well?
Chris:
Yeah. That’s a really good segue, TJ, because living in Baltimore for a number of years, I know that this rivalry stands above all the others. When the Steelers face the Ravens, this is a gritty trenches type of battle where a lot of hard hitting, et cetera. And when did these games ever end with a lot of margin between the two teams? It’s always a close game between the Ravens and Steelers. And in that sense, I’m just not going to overthink it. I really like Tyler Huntley too. He came out there last week, and we’ve seen this before in seasons past with him, I think he could be a more accurate thrower than Lamar. He just has a lot of confidence in his arm. Obviously Lamar Jackson’s the better all-round player, you can’t compare the two, especially with the sample size. But Tyler Huntley led them down the field in that crucial late game situation against the Broncos, in which… The Broncos prove every single week, they keep their team in the game because of their defense, holding the Ravens to only 10 points, but that’s all the Ravens needed. Really crafty play there at the end by Huntley as well. So I think he can lead this Ravens team. I don’t think it’s necessarily wrong that the Steelers are favored. They’ve been playing much better. Their run game is going, their defense is playing a lot better too, really shut out the Falcons last week in the first half, until they kind of slept on that lead. So Steelers would be a team to play on, but not against the Ravens here, so I’m also going to tease up Baltimore six points along with our Vikings teaser. Scott and I going with the same teaser here.
Scott:
I know. I woke up and saw that today, I’m like wow.
TJ:
Peeps, they’re not often in complete lockstep, but they are in this case. Let’s put them both on the record. The second half of the tease is the Ravens now teased up to eight and a half, putting them earlier in the show with the Minnesota Vikings teased up to eight points. So a couple of road teams that are short favorites, they say give me some more points, and we’ll take it on a two-team tease. We see you there, Fallon I believe is how you say it, about the accuracy on Huntley. Some of you are remarking too about the Steelers and Kenny Pickett and how they’ve looked.
I said this not to make excuses for the Buccaneers, but I said this when Pickett… And the Pickett left the game and Trubisky came in, when they beat the Buccaneers in Pittsburgh, and everybody’s going, “My God, how can you lose [inaudible 00:29:06] Pittsburgh?” I said, “Watch. Mike Tomlin will have them by the end of the year somewhere around 500.” Here we go. They’ve beaten the Saints, they’ve beaten the Falcons for what it’s worth, they won the game at Indianapolis. This will be a competitive game probably on Sunday in the Steel City for Baltimore and Pittsburgh. And again, the live audience continues to swell with us. We’re here Thursdays, 1:00 Eastern Time, play us back all the time on Thursday, Friday, as we head towards the weekend, et cetera. Make sure you hit that like button, make sure you’re subscribing on the BetUS NFL channel. Let’s keep rocking along.
Very interesting game in the NFC East where the Giants host the 11-1 Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles a seven point road favorite, the total is 45. Last time that the Eagles were 11-1, Donovan McNabb, Terrell Owens and company went to the Super Bowl, for whatever it’s worth. They were very impressive at home last week. Now they get ready to take on the Giants, the G-Men here. Scott Kellen, a thought or two on this one. I know there’s not an official play coming here, but a thought or two from you.
Scott:
Yeah. A little bit of value for me on the Eagles here. I’m a little hesitant. The Eagles have lost here the last couple years. Obviously this is a much better version of the Eagles this year, but it’s also hard for me to support the Giants. They’ve now won just one game in their last five games, that game was against lowly Houston. And I’m going to be anxious to hear Chris’s opinion, because he’s had a very good read on the Giants. That’s his team obviously, and he’s gone for them and against them this year at the right time. So I’ll be interested to hear what he has to say based on what I’m saying here.
But I’m looking at the Giants here. Their wins this year have come against teams who have won four, three, five, four, and one game. They did win a couple games against Tennessee, who’s won seven games, and won win against, I forget who it was that had won eight games. Baltimore. They scored light in both those games, were down and got the win, so give them credit for that. But against some of the better teams they played, they’ve lost by 7, 8, and 13 points, and obviously they’re going to get a very good Eagle team here as well. And from a matchup standpoint, it’s a very good Eagles defense against a very poor Giants offense, obviously that doesn’t match up well.
The other outlier here that we don’t know yet, is are the Giants going to get some of their guys back? Adoree’ Jackson, very important cornerback. They can get him back, and they’ve got another cornerback that’s been out as well, so if they can start to get some of those pieces back, that will help them as well.
And the last note here, we mentioned this last week, it came home last week despite going to overtime and almost being over, but as a home dog now, Giants now 16-5-1 to the under in their last 22 games, and the last 14 have all gone under with one push in there, so 13-0-1 to the under. So they typically play low scoring games here as a home dog at home as well.
TJ:
All right. So no official play. Chris Farley, I know you love the G-Men. It was frustrating with the tie last week. Did I sense, did I hear you were willing that Graham Gano 58 or 59 yard field goal to just go another yard or two and get over the crossbar, but it didn’t happen, it ends in a tie. And this game, it’s one that New York very much needs to stay in the NFC wildcard playoff picture here. Interesting, we kicked this around on 3 Dog Thursday, I liked the Giants’ play for 3 Dog Thursday, and one of the numbers is Philadelphia away from home, 0-4-1 ATS, 0-4-1 against the spread so far this season away from the link. All right, Chris, a thought or two if no official play from you, sir.
Chris:
Last week was one of those weeks where I had a play actually against my Giants, and it didn’t work out on the Commanders, but I do feel like the Commanders should have covered that line. Giants got a little fortunate in a few circumstances, and Washington played really conservatively in overtime. I mean, I guess both teams did, but playing for a tie, I don’t get that.
But anyway, a few things going on this week for sure. If you bet on the Eagles, I think just the audience should know that you’re betting on the Eagles at the height of their powers. They just came off of an absolute oblation of the Titans, which I didn’t see that coming, because the Titans just aren’t a team to get obliterated by anybody, especially in the trenches. The Eagles’ offensive line looked as good as it ever did against a very tenacious group there in Tennessee. But it’s interesting that the Eagles are only seven point favorites in this game. You look at a lot of metrics, a lot of matchups, the Eagles should win almost every single situation in this game.
That being said, the Giants’ defensive line starting to show some things, got a lot of sacks last week. Kayvon Thibodeaux, their number one draft pick, starting to make a difference as a game wrecker in a few big game situations. That’s definitely a good thing for the Giants. From everything I read, I don’t think they’re going to get Adoree’ Jackson back, which for the Giants that is a big deal. He is not a top cornerback in the league, but he’s way better than who they have as his replacement, and that side of the field has been getting exposed readily in his games where he’s not in.
So for the Giants’ sake, hopefully Adoree’ Jackson comes back. The Giants’ offensive line is getting healthier. That’s a big deal for them. But I’ve wanted to say this throughout this whole season, and I was going to say, I think the Giants are going to win against the Eagles in one game. I’m going to retract that statement and say I think the Giants are going to just be very competitive against the Eagles in at least one game at home. This is a big spot. The Giants are not going to be favored in at least three out of their last five games. I only expect them to win two more games, and they’ll probably miss the playoffs, but if they have a chance at making the playoffs, they probably have to win one of these games against Philly. So big game for the Giants, they’re at home, they’re not going to be intimidated, lean towards the Giants, but I can’t take it.
TJ:
All right, so nothing official from the guys. How about this for official? The Giants are officially relevant in December, and that hasn’t happened in recent years. You got to go back to July a few years ago.
Chris:
[inaudible 00:35:11]
TJ:
I’m not reminding you of something you don’t know, but they are very much relevant here in this matchup with Philadelphia, and a win would help their playoff hopes. We’ll see what happens in that game. All right, let’s continue here on this Thursday with an AFC North battle. The Bengals come off that win over the Chiefs last week. Now they’re in a revenge spot at home against the Cleveland Browns, who suddenly have found a little something. We look at the hulking Myles Garrett there. Cincinnati [inaudible 00:35:36] seven, the total is 47 in this matchup. All right, let’s get into it. Chris Farley, I’m right back to you for the official play. What do we like here on Browns-Bengals, the rematch of a Monday night win by Cleveland a few weeks ago?
Chris:
Yeah. I love the Bengals in this spot. I believe it’s up to seven here at BetUS, so I don’t want to take it at that, but I’m looking just for all kinds of angles on the Bengals. And I like the Bengals to start this game hot in the first quarter, so that’s what I’m going to take, a little derivative angle here. Obviously arguably the Bengals’ worst game of the year was against the Browns a few weeks ago on Monday Night Football, that was on Halloween. Cleveland dominated that game, doubled the Bengals in total yards, stifling them on defense all the time. They had a great run offense going. I don’t expect any of that to repeat in this game. The Bengals are playing some exceptional football right now. We’ve seen two big wins that they’ve had against the Titans and Chiefs two of the best teams in the AFC, the past two weeks.
And Joe Burrow, feels like we talk about it every week, but it’s worth mentioning again, he’s putting the ball in places that very few quarterbacks can do, playing with a ton of confidence and moxie out there. Ja’Marr Chase came back last week, he was instantly dominant. The matchup advantage that they have [inaudible 00:36:56] wide receiver nearly every single week is very considerable. Now they’ve got Samaje Perine going, so it doesn’t really matter if it’s Joe Mixon or Perine, they run downhill, the run game is starting to become more effective, and that offensive line now for a few weeks in a row has looked as good as it has all year, probably it’s best week last week as well. So as long as Cincinnati keeps on protecting Joe Burrow, I don’t think a team like Cleveland can keep up with the Bengals in this game. I like them at minus six, minus six and a half, I’m not going to pull the trigger at seven.
But after seeing Deshaun Watson last week, do we think that he’s going to come in this game and look completely different? Because I don’t. He looked terrible, [inaudible 00:37:38] 12 for 22 for 131 yards in an interception. The Browns’ defense and special team scored all their points last week except for two field goals against the bad Texans’ defense. So I don’t think this is a good setup for the Browns at all. I would just look to take the Bengals in every way you can. I’m taking them in the first quarter.
TJ:
All right, so a first quarter play. Scott Kellen, thoughts from you on this matchup where the Bengals again are still battling for the top seed in the AFC as well. Quick thoughts here, Scott?
Scott:
Yeah. First of all, they have a couple hot weeks, like they’ve had the last couple weeks, you have that, you decide to take Cleveland over the team total of 27 points against Houston, and they scored no offensive touchdowns but somehow you still get to the 27 points for a push. You got to be lucky and good, and that’s really what Cleveland was last week. Two defensive scores and a punt return, and then they get a couple field goals. One of the viewers said Watson looked very rusty, and that was definitely true.
And they had that 32-13 loss on Monday night. I didn’t go back and look, I think Chase was out in that game I believe.
TJ:
Correct.
Scott:
There were some defensive players I believe that got hurt in that game for Cincinnati, and it was a snowball going downhill and it was never going to stop. So to Chris’s point, I don’t really expect that at all. And it’s pretty clear it’s going to take a little while for Watson to get into some kind of mode here. They are going to get Njoku back, the tight end, who’s vital. He missed last week. That will help them a little bit. I actually show… My numbers only have Cincinnati favored by about four points in this game, and maybe that’s giving too much credit for Watson to be the Deshaun Watson that we’ve seen in the past, and maybe that’s closer to six if you want to say that he’s going to still take a few more weeks to get going. So no play for me.
Only other thing I’ll mention here, and we’ve got quite a few of these games, Minnesota-Detroit, hit that as well. These high total divisional games late in the year, they typically go under, and I’ve seen some stats this week about how they’ve done that quite a bit this year as well. So I would just keep that in mind. Ironically this series, even with the high totals, has gone over last few years, so it hasn’t really applied to these two teams. But just these high totals division games tend to go under, and I would be very careful about playing the majority of divisional games over with high totals, now to the rest of the year.
TJ:
All right. As somebody pointed out, I think Mark pointed out in the chat, Joe Burrow yet to beat Cleveland in his career. Will that be coming Sunday? Let’s find out. Chris Farley says, “Give me a first half number of minus point five, and I will take that with Cincinnati on a first half line.” Getting that specific for the first quarter. And let’s see what happens with the Bengals in revenge mode against the Browns. We continue. Thank you for finding us with the live audience. Let’s rock on. Let’s stay with the AFC playoff picture.
And in the south, the Tennessee Titans have had a little upheaval this week. More on that in a second. They are favored by four over the Jacksonville Jaguars, a team that they have traditionally owned over the course of the last few years of the matchups in the AFC South. The total is 41 for the game in Nashville, and we get ready to go to Scott Kellen here for an official play. In fact, you’re going to have a couple of them on this game.
Curious, Scott, that John Robinson, the successful GM, and I say successful because he’s drafted and signed some Pro Bowl caliber players, I guess there’s some belly-aching about getting rid of AJ Brown, about having brought in Julio Jones last year who didn’t do anything, et cetera, et cetera. But they fired the GM with a winning record while in contention in the middle of the season. There’s a lot of speculation that’s a Mike Vrabel power play, that he wants to be the GM ultimately, or at least have more say-so. Whatever the case, Scott, here’s a matchup with Jacksonville off a loss to Detroit, Tennessee back home after being blistered by Philadelphia. What are your official plays? You’re going to have a couple of them. Go ahead.
Scott:
I see Mark’s comment here. Why have the Sharks been on the Jags every week? It’s a good question, but I’m going to be on the Jags this week. I’m going to take Jacksonville plus the four, and I’m going to go over the 41. And this isn’t… I mean, maybe it’s a little bit of a play on the Jags, but for me it’s also a play against Tennessee. I ended up going against them last week once that line went down to four. My numbers supported Cincinnati the week before, I got a little scared off, and I did not take them in that game.
But let’s talk total, first of all. It’s a total of 41, which is a fairly low total. I do expect Tennessee to be able to score some points in this game. Jacksonville’s defense isn’t that good. We saw them give up [inaudible 00:42:20] Detroit last week. Obviously the good thing if you’re taking Jacksonville is that Tennessee’s offense is not Detroit’s offense, so that helps. But having said that, when the Titans… And they haven’t played many bad defenses this year, and Jacksonville I consider one of them, they’ve scored 24 against Vegas and 27 against Green Bay. I don’t think it’s anything out of the ordinary to expect Tennessee to get maybe 24, 27 points in this game. Again, we’re trying to go over a total of 41.
From the Tennessee defensive standpoint, they have not been great against the Pats this year, and they haven’t played a lot of offenses that are outside the bottom ten in the league. So they’ve played a lot of really bad offenses this year. The Jacksonville offense is pretty good. I think Lawrence is going to be fine to go, despite getting hurt last week. And when they’ve played some of those better offenses, or at least offenses that aren’t the garbage offenses of the league, they’ve allowed 20 or more points in five of the six games. So I don’t think it’s out of the question to ask and expect Jacksonville to be able to get to 20 points here. You put all that together, I think we get over the 41, which is a fairly low total. I think we’ve got a good chance. My numbers show value in the over.
From a Jacksonville side standpoint, again, my numbers haven’t really supported Tennessee, and they’ve got a lot of injuries. I think the wide receiver Treylon Burks is probably going to be out because of a concussion. They’ve missed Denico Autry, one of their best edge rushers last couple weeks. He may not play again this week. They also had David Long, their linebacker, get hurt last week. Long is Pro Football Focus’s second best run stopper for a linebacker in the league, and he’s got a run stop rate which is sixth best in the league. That will hurt them against the run a little bit, he’s one of their better run stoppers. And then Christian Fulton, one of the cornerbacks, is hurt. So they could have injuries at every level of their defense here, and allow Jacksonville to stay in this game a little bit as well.
And lastly, from a situational standpoint, Tennessee, a very bad defensive effort last week. They come home as a home favorite. They’re in a bad situation doing that, and Jacksonville does qualify in a couple road bounce back situations getting blown out last week. So situationally, I do have some value on Jacksonville, and I think this thing can go over the total. I’ll take the Jags and the over.
TJ:
He doubles up, Chris Farley, on this. Again, I mentioned some of the Tennessee turmoil behind the scenes. Jacksonville hot and cold. They had the big comeback win over Baltimore with the two point conversion. Just went up to Detroit, and I don’t know how much we credit the Lions, but they looked awful, the Jaguars, and the Lions wiped them out. All right, now they’re on the road at Tennessee. Any quick thought, if no official play, on Jags Titans Sunday?
Chris:
The reason why I’m off this game is because of what Scott said. I think the narrative fits Jacksonville here to respond in a divisional game and keep this close. At the same time, a few weeks now we’ve seen Derrick Henry be really limited, and unless there’s something going on with Derek Henry that we don’t know about, historically this is the time of year where he really pours it on opposing defenses. And I’m just waiting for a game like that, where there’s an 80 yard run or something and they really bust open the entire game.
TJ:
He traditionally kills Jacksonville, to your point.
Chris:
Yes, correct.
TJ:
This is the team he lights up against, to your point. Keep going.
Chris:
Yes, absolutely. And the Jaguars’ defense, you can see the growth in them. They’re young, they’re exciting, athletic players, but they usually thrive when they have a situational advantage, like we saw against the Eagles [inaudible 00:45:50] raining and sloppy, or when they face an offense that makes a lot of mistakes. And the Tennessee Titans don’t qualify as that for me, especially going back home after that really poor performance last week against the Eagles. I think they’re just going to button a lot of things up. So it could be a very close game. Jacksonville, the back door is always open, because Trevor Lawrence is playing a lot better, especially at the end of these games. But I do think that the Titans win. So competing narratives for me, I’m just off this game.
TJ:
All right. The official plays, plural, belong to Scott Kellen. He’s got two of them. He likes the Jaguars on the side, and he likes for the reasons he gave for the numbers to go up [inaudible 00:46:29] points and go over the total of 41. Thank you for finding us. If you’re here with us live on the BetUS Thursday show, we’re here 1:00 Eastern time on Thursdays. You get every game. We’re still motoring through all of them, Sunday leading to Sunday Night Football, and on Monday as well. So the handicappers may not have a play on every game, but you’ll get some discussion about all of the games.
And to that end, let’s move along to the Houston Texans and the Dallas Cowboys. I don’t know how long we’re going to spend on this one. There is an official play. Look at that line. Mercy. Minus 17. Is that the largest one of the year? It’s got to be close. Cowboys favored by 17, and the total is 44 in this one. All right, Chris Farley, I am back to you for the official play. The Texans have announced they’ll go back to Davis Mills, after Kyle Allen was completely ineffective for his two games. Houston is just playing out the string with Lovie Smith. They’re awful. All right. Thoughts real quick and an official play, Chris.
Chris:
This qualifies as a good game to go over the total for me. First of all, we’ve seen the Dallas Cowboys… A lot of things went their way last week against the Colts, a lot of interceptions. I think one or two returned for a touchdown that game, so obviously their defense really devoured Matt Ryan in that whole situation. But the Cowboys can put up points, we know, and this isn’t a good Houston Texans defense by any means, with some of their players still injured too that they really need to be in the lineup to face an offense as potent as Dallas.
But I also think could be a sleepy spot for the Cowboys. They have Jacksonville next week, but this is the easier part of their schedule. They’re 9-3, they’re dead on to make the playoffs right now, if not compete for Philly for first place in the NFCs when it all comes down to it. So I think one of the most egregious coaching moves this season, my one buddy said this earlier today and I tend to agree with him, was putting Kyle Allen as you’re starting quarterback instead of Davis Mills. So Davis Mills haven’t been doing a lot of great things this year, but I still think he’s a much more capable quarterback for the Texans. Certainly makes them more dangerous.
So I think Houston might get on the board a little more than we think this week. Their offense has just been absolutely nowhere to be found, and obviously this Cowboys’ defense is very good. But again, in a game where they expect to win, they’re going to try to run the ball a lot and stuff, I think Houston’s going to get on the board a few times. So give me the over here. The Dallas Cowboys could eclipse 44 themselves, so I think if the Texans could put up like 14 points on the board, I think we’re going over here.
TJ:
Again, Tony Pollard has been running it very well, my former Memphis Tiger running back in there for Ezekiel Elliott most of the time, and the Cowboys again put 33 points up in the fourth quarter on Sunday Night Football. We can see a lot of the savages that are in the live chat are loving the Cowboys on this one. Scott Kellen, real quick, a thought if no official play on the Cowboys’ favorite big over Houston.
Scott:
Yeah. When I saw Chris was on this today, I would be on this and maybe will be on this, especially at the number of 44, if I can get Nico Collins playing, and I’d love it if Brandin Cooks played as well. They both did not practice yesterday, so I’m a little concerned about that. That’s the only reason on the show I didn’t make it a best bet to the over.
To confirm your point, Chris, Houston scored 17 or less in six straight games now, so they’re not scoring points. Only games they’ve scored 20 or more against were against the 27th, 28th, and 30th rated defenses, and obviously they’re not going to get that against the Cowboys here. It’s a very good defense. And I had mentioned this at the beginning of the show, we were talking. Cowboys are on this run now where they’ve scored 24 in Dak’s first game back against Detroit. 49, 28, 40, 28, and 54 points. The first five of those games were against defenses rated 22nd or worse in the league. Here comes Houston, rated 23rd in the league, so this just shapes up to be a 30 point plus performance, just because.
And the last thing I’ve been [inaudible 00:50:39] a lot here because Dallas has been a big favorite at home here in recent weeks, and this isn’t so much about the side, but Cowboys are 11-3-1 against the spread as a home favorite of seven or more in games that Dak started and finished essentially, and didn’t go up because they have an injury. They’ve scored 27 or more in 13 of those 15 games now, when we add last week’s number to the ledger. So they’re going to get to 30, 33 points. Question becomes, can Houston get there?
I can see Houston doing this in one of two ways. You get bad teams, they come down that first drive of the game, somehow they score, if they can get a touchdown rather than a field goal that’s great, and they can always be counted on for some crap touchdown at the end when nobody cares, of course. Or you get that game against Miami a couple weeks ago, it’s 30-0 at half time, and Houston gets 15 points in the second half, because the Dolphins don’t care. They pull some starters, et cetera. So there’s plenty of ways to get there, especially if Dallas can get to 33 or so. So I support that over pretty well as well. I would just like to make sure Collins and Cooks play at receiver, and then I’d be really happy with it.
TJ:
All right. Good enough. We see Dan’s point there about Matt Ryan handing them a bunch of points. There were turnovers in that fourth quarter, but the Cowboys scored, scored, scored in that game. And that is what Chris Farley believes in for the official play. He believes in lots of points, mainly Cowboy points, going over the total of 44 in the matchup with the Texans.
Let’s continue. This was a game that was supposed to be an afternoon game but now it has been flexed into Sunday Night Football, and the Dolphins, speaking of them, took their lumps in Santa Clara against the 49ers last week. They stayed out west and will now play the LA Chargers, come down south, down the I-5 a few hours, and play the Chargers in LA. The Dolphins still a three and a half point road favorite. The total is 51 and a half in this matchup, and both handicappers have a play here. Scott Kellen, I’m right back to you for the official play on this matchup. The Chargers off the tough loss to the Raiders themselves last week are back home. What’s the official play? What do you like?
Scott:
I like the Chargers plus the three and a half. There’s some key injuries here, on both teams here. Left tackle Terron Armstead for Miami. On the Chargers’ side, center Corey Linsley, and then obviously the wide receiver Mike Williams, who I think practiced in a limited fashion yesterday. Let’s just assume none of those three play. I still favor Miami just by like 0.3 points here. So I think there’s some value on the Chargers, and if all those guys play, especially the Charger players, then I think there’s even a little bit more value here. Yes, Miami’s a pretty good team, and the Chargers have had a lot of issues this year, but laying three and a half points on the road I just think is a lot of points. Again, this isn’t going to be the most scintillating review here, because it’s really just based on my numbers.
The one other thing I’ll say here though, if we do get Armstead, if we get Williams, and if we get Linsley, the total’s probably going to go up here, but I would make this total about 56 points, and I would be on the over as well, as long as we’re getting two or three points of value here. Prior to last week’s game against San Francisco, the Dolphins had played four straight defenses that were ranked 21st or worse. They scored 31, 35, 39, and 30 points against those teams. Chargers are really no better in that neighborhood. And if the Chargers can get William and Linsley, their all-pro center back, they’re going to be able to score on this Miami defenses too. It’s not that good. And that’s another reason to like the three and a half. The Miami defense is okay, but I don’t think it’s great, and I think Chargers at home can score enough to keep this thing close. And if we get some of those guys back, I’ll be on the over as well, as long as it’s a reasonable total [inaudible 00:54:22].
TJ:
Interesting. Chris Farley, thoughts here on this matchup? Did the 49ers take something out of the Dolphins? They got to Tua, they got some interceptions, they’re on the road again here, they did stay in California and in the Pacific time zone. Can the Chargers take advantage of that, like what the 49ers did? I’m curious what your thoughts and what your official play is.
Chris:
Yeah. Total agreement with Scott on the total. I see this as being a 30 to 27 type game, especially if all those players are in the lineup on Sunday. But the thing about that is, I think it could go either way. I think it’s a coin flip, 30 to 27 either way. And Chargers coming off a loss too, heading back home. Long story short, I think Justin Herbert can just slice and dice this Miami defense. We know about some of the transgressions of the Chargers defense this year. Brandon Staley is supposed to be a defensive minded coach. They just can’t stop anybody. But neither really can the Miami Dolphins. We’ve seen them in some spots, Bradley Chubb maybe creating a little bit more pressure for them on the defensive line, but it’s not effective enough, it’s not consistent enough. And I really hope that Justin Herbert gets back Mike Williams, because he hasn’t had his full arsenal of talent now for the vast majority of this season. And when he has that especially, he should be able to have a lot of success in this game.
TJ:
Can I interject? They played together briefly in the Kansas City game, which was the first time in several games I think I saw, where Keenan Allen and Mike Williams have not been on the field together for more than like 55 plays. 55 plays the whole season. It’s something like that, to your point, Chris.
Chris:
And that’s the thing. This team at the very beginning of the season, everyone’s circling them like, who’s a more talented team than the Los Angeles Chargers? They just incurred so many injuries, but they are a good ATS team this year. And again, it’s all about the number at the end of the day. We’re not getting a two and a half here, we’re getting a three and a half, which means they could lose by a field goal and still cover this line. It’s a bit disrespectful for me. So all over the Chargers, I think it’s one of my favorite ATS plays this week.
TJ:
We see a lot of the savages are going back and forth with some of their own plays, including Tua props, et cetera. We see you in the live chat, we’ve seen some of the comments. Let’s lock the handicappers in, though. Official plays. And again, Kellen has been rolling along. Chris is right there with him on this. They both like the LA Chargers. Can I make it a trio? Because on 3 Dog Thursday, I loved the Chargers in this spot as well, for whatever it’s worth. On the 3 Dog Thursday show I looked at this game and said, second straight game on the road for the Dolphins, Chargers at home, Chargers still on the fringe [inaudible 00:57:03] in the AFC playoff picture, they’ve got to win a bunch of games. Let’s see. Maybe it’s my bias that I have Austin Ekeler on the fantasy team and I want him to do well and get a couple of touchdowns, because it’s last regular season of fantasy coming up.
Chris:
If all three of us agree, I kind of want to put my mortgage on it, but [inaudible 00:57:18].
TJ:
Scary. Don’t do that.
Chris:
Don’t do that, audience. Don’t do that. [inaudible 00:57:20].
TJ:
Don’t do that. Don’t load up that much.
Scott:
We’ll see Chris next week in a tent or something doing this show [inaudible 00:57:24].
TJ:
Yes, exactly. TJ’s address is 114 cardboard box under the overpass if that happens. Okay. But we do like the Chargers in this matchup. All right. Good enough. Let’s move on.
And this is a matchup of the Seattle Seahawks who beat the Rams last week, and the Seahawks favored by three and a half over Carolina, coming all the way out there. Again, Carolina released Baker Mayfield earlier in the week. It looks as though they’ll still go with Sam Darnold at quarterback, although PJ Walker could be back from the high ankle sprain. That’s debatable. We don’t know that answer here on Thursday as we head in to the weekend. Still, the Seahawks favored at home. Again, they’re still looking to win the West. They’re chased right now by the 49ers. It’s them one and two out in the NFC West playoff picture. The total is 44 in this game. And in this case we do not have an official play. Chris Farley, I’m going to come right back to you. Geno Smith was throwing some big time passes again, for what it’s worth, against the Rams last week. Carolina, not very good. Any thoughts if no official play?
Chris:
This is a really tough game for me to handicap. Week to week, Panthers look formidable sometimes on offense, especially in their run game. But this Seattle defense needs to get right. If they’re going to head to the playoffs, if they’re going to have any success this year, even with how well Geno Smith is playing… And he is playing well. The fact that they went down, and with only two minutes left in that game to the Rams, Geno Smith was surgical on that final [inaudible 00:58:56] just went right down the field and made a touchdown happen so they could win that game. That’s all fine and good, but it’s not good if you’re trying to bet on the Seahawks in these spots against the spread.
I do lean the Seahawks’ direction, because I do expect a little bit of improvement on defense. And let’s face it, Sam Darnold, he actually looked pretty good in his first game back, but this kind of sets up against that 12th man there in Seattle with a defense that knows it needs to improve, it sets up for a bad Sam Darnold game, maybe he throws like three interceptions plus. So I lean towards Seattle, but this Carolina team has been feisty, their defense is above average, and I agree with exactly where this line is. You got to give Seattle credit for being at home, but they’re not one of the elite teams in the NFL, especially the way their defense is playing lately. So no play for me, lean Seattle.
TJ:
And we saw a question about Kenneth Walker. Again, I don’t believe he practiced, or it was at least on a limited basis, the Seahawk running back. We don’t know the final answer on him being able to play. Scott Kellen, quickly, a thought if no official play here. Carolina going all the way out to the Pacific Northwest with maybe Sam Darnold, maybe PJ Walker, interim coach. Thoughts real quick?
Scott:
Yeah. It’s going to be a lot what Chris said. I’m not a huge believer of Darnold, although he looked good against Denver in their game before the buy. Carolina comes in with an offense that I rate as 22nd in the league. Seattle this year [inaudible 01:00:19] 25th, 26th, 27th, 29th, and 30th offenses, they played a lot of bad offenses, they’ve allowed 23 or less points to all those teams. Now you give up 23 points to a bottom barrel offense, that’s not great, actually. But the one takeaway I had in that is, only two of those games were at home. They allowed Arizona 9 points and Chris’s Giants 13 points. So maybe at home they can be a little bit better.
I said this a few weeks earlier, I’ve just noticed… And we’ve all known the 12th man advantage for Seattle at home, but I’ve just seen extra half steps on that defense before the team snaps the ball, it seems like this year, and that could play into this a little bit as well. Carolina, as bad as their offense has been this year, they’ve scored 22 or more in four of the five games against the bottom defenses that they’ve played. So they could score points here as well. My numbers support Seattle here a little bit, but it’s a tough lay knowing what kind of defense you’re playing with here. So no play for me in this game. If it went to two and a half for some strange reason, I don’t expect it would, I would consider Seattle, but not anything above that.
TJ:
Interesting for the Seahawks, after this game, they will play the 49ers at home as a grudge game.
Scott:
On Thursday.
TJ:
And that’s a big game for the division. Then they play at Kansas City. So is it a look ahead maybe as well for Seattle in this situation? We will find out. Coming up, no play from the guys here though on Panthers at the Seahawks. Three games to go here on the show. We are soaring, by the way, with live audience right now. We’re up over 200 and climbing that are watching us live. For a lot of you, you’ve not hit the like button. Hit the like button for us, because my like to viewer ratio is about one to five or one to six right now. Hit that like button, start pumping it up here on the show. Also make sure you’re subscribing and sharing it out. More people will find it that way as we continue to rock along. You got three more games to go here. I know Chris the cop just put in the chat a few minutes ago, “I just got in here and I’m going to have to rewind to the beginning of the show.” That’s fine, you can do that. But we love the live interaction whenever you do get in, whenever you do pop in, and a lot of you are doing that as well.
All right. Let’s continue. You know where my allegiance is, Buccaneers traveling out to San Francisco, actually Santa Clara. After the Buccaneers for 57 minutes looked in dire straits for the matchup on Monday Night Football with the Saints, found a way with Tom Brady to get them in the end zone not once but twice, including with three seconds left. I was right there, Scott Kellen, on the goal line for the touchdown catch by Rachaad White. It made for a happy post-game show, brother. Now they’re a road dog of three and a half at San Francisco. The total is 37 and a half in this matchup with the 49ers, who come off that win against the Dolphins, who right now lead the West. They are at home. Scott, I’m going to come right back to you real quick. No official play here, but thoughts on Tampa Bay as the road doggy here at San Francisco?
Scott:
Yeah. I made the number about three and a half, so that’s kind of where it’s at. I actually show some value to the over here, but I’m going to have to think about this over for a long time, because I’m trying to think, how do they get over 37 points here? Obviously 37 and a half, it’s a very low number, but to your point, I missed the first half of that Monday night game. I was traveling to get up to my hotel room, I turned the game on, I’m watching like, man, it is the same Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense week after week, and you keep expecting it to change. So I don’t know how that’s going to change, and now they’re going to play a pretty good defense this week, so that’s going to be very tough.
I thought Brock Purdy looked okay last week, but when you look at the numbers, he only averaged 5.1 yards a pass against the Dolphins. So that’s a huge downgrade compared to Garoppolo who was averaging 7.2 yards a pass. He’s got a 4.3% interception rate, very limited role obviously as well. And now he’s going to face a very, very good Tampa Bay defense. So I don’t know how San Francisco’s necessarily going to score. They could run the ball. Tampa hasn’t been as good defending the run this year, and obviously this is a dynamic San Francisco running offense that can hit you in a lot of different ways, so you can find ways to be successful with that. And that’s kind of what they did last week as well, to help them move the ball as well. So the line’s about right. No play for me. Possibly slightly into the over, simply because my numbers suggest that, but I got to figure out a reason to be confident in that, because that just seems like it’s going to be a tall chore as well.
TJ:
Some injuries as well for the 49ers. Nick Bosa, hamstring problem. Deebo Samuel, leg injury. They’re question marks for Sunday. We’ll see if they play. Chris Farley, thoughts here real quick on this one. It is definitely one of the more intriguing games of the weekend, with the Buccaneers leading their division. It’s 6-6, but they lead the South, and the 49ers lead the West at 8-4. A quick thought or two, Chris, if no official play.
Chris:
[inaudible 01:05:28] is a fascinating game, and it’s a really hard one to bet, because you have Mr. Irrelevant, Brock Purdy, final pick in the draft, going up against arguably… Or is it even arguable any more? The greatest quarterback of all time. But you have a lot of other factors at hand, like the San Francisco defense and how great it’s been, if Tampa Bay could put up any points whatsoever, and if we’re going to see the same version of Brock Purdy. Because it’s one thing when a quarterback comes into the game, helps their team win, et cetera, part of the system. It’s another thing when the opposing defense knows who they’re going to play against all week, not that they have a lot of film on him, and there’s certainly a lot of positive sentiments coming from the 49ers’ camp about Brock Purdy, but the jury’s still out to whether he can have a repeat performance here against still a pretty darn good Tampa Bay defense.
So because we don’t know enough about that, it’s just really hard for me to make a bet on it. San Francisco deserves to be favored, but I can’t figure out what the game narrative in this situation is going to be. So no bet for me.
Scott:
[inaudible 01:06:36]
TJ:
[inaudible 01:06:36] low scoring game. Yep, go ahead.
Scott:
I was just going to add one last thing, and it’s probably one of the reasons my numbers are leaning towards the over a little bit. You got three guys hurting that Tampa Bay secondary [inaudible 01:06:45] my numbers would change in this as well if they’re going to play. So we’ll see if Winfield… I’m trying to think of the other two. [inaudible 01:06:52]
TJ:
Mike Edwards. Mike Edwards, the safety. And Murphy-Bunting, the defensive.
Scott:
Yeah. So we’ll see. That would change things as well and obviously make things a little bit easier for San Francisco if they don’t as well.
TJ:
I’m here for your Buccaneer secondary [inaudible 01:07:04] not just for Scott, for everybody.
Scott:
[inaudible 01:07:07] Let me ask you. Do you think… [inaudible 01:07:09]
TJ:
At this moment, they did not practice, none of those guys practiced on Wednesday. So it’s anybody’s guess here. They’ve had to go with some reserves. Do you want the quote of the show, if not one of the quotes of the year, that just came out while we were doing the live show? Are you boys ready? Tom Brady was meeting with the media during the 1:00 Eastern Time hour here, after Buccaneer practice on Thursday, and they asked him about going to play the 49ers. And he volunteered, and he’s been open about this, they even did a documentary about this from NFL Films about him being passed over and over again. He said, and I quote, “I grew up a 49ers fan, going to 49ers games. They passed over me six times in the NFL draft. I hate the 49ers.” Take that [inaudible 01:07:48] everybody laughed, but he might’ve been semi-serious with what he said.
So Brady and the Bucs head out to Santa Clara, little chip on their shoulder maybe, it’s probably going to be a low scoring game. The Buccaneers seemingly only play low scoring games right now. We’ll find out what happens in this matchup in Santa Clara. Two games to go, and then we’re done on the Thursday show. Again, the Kansas City-Denver game was supposed to have been the Sunday night game, and then the NFL and NBC and everybody else went, “Broncos, no.” All right. So Kansas City comes in off the loss against Cincinnati, still a 10 point favorite at Mile High or whatever they’re calling the stadium now. Total is 44 in this game. There’s not an official play. Chris Farley, we’re back to you. Give me your thoughts. Is Kansas City due to tune up Denver here because they’re angry? That’s a large line as well. Thoughts?
Chris:
Yeah. This Broncos team is just so interesting. Last week the lowest scoring team, but yet they cover that line by many points, eight and a half point underdogs in that game, and yet it’s only a one point game at the end. And a lot of that is because of their defense. Are we going to see the same thing in this game? It’s what makes me want to take an under, because Patrick Mahomes in these cases usually doesn’t blow out teams on the road, but we’ve seen them do that a few times this year, including a big game against San Francisco where they did that. But Denver at home is such a tough spot usually too, and their defense is playing really, really well. But KC, also maybe a little bit of a redemption spot for them after that letdown at Cincinnati.
So, man, I just… These Broncos games, it makes me wonder why I don’t always plan their team totals under, why I don’t plan the under over and over again, and why I don’t trust them to cover, because their defense usually keeps them in these games. It’s just really tough to go against Patrick Mahomes after a loss. Even in a divisional game, this is obviously a win that KC is going to want to secure that number one seed in the AFC. That’s what they’re going to be playing for in these final five weeks. So they’re going to want to gain some margin very quickly on this team. It’s just the strength of the Denver defense is their past defense. They could limit Patrick Mahomes in this game. So I lean to Denver, it’s a lot of points at home, but really tough team to trust.
TJ:
There is a lot of discussion going back and forth about this game. Again, this is the first of two meetings in the next four weeks. The game in Kansas City comes in week 17, the 16th game of the season is coming up. All right, Scott Kellen, quick thoughts if no official play on the Chiefs laying a large number here on the road at Denver.
Scott:
Yeah. I’ve got a little bit of value in Kansas City in this game, a pretty good situation that goes against Denver. It went against Houston last week. You got a really bad team coming home after a couple road losses, they usually do not cover… That goes all the way up to getting plus 10 points at home. They’re not covering those numbers. So a little bit of value Kansas City, that situation.
And Denver’s only scored more than 16 points twice this year, and that was against the 25th rated defense in Jacksonville and the 30th rated defense in the Vegas Raiders. And I’ve got Kansas City rated 17th, so they’re not great, but they’re not bottom of the barrel here. I don’t see how Denver’s getting more than 16 points. If they are going to cover, obviously they’re going to have to do this with their defense, and probably no Courtland Sutton in this game as well. He’s banged up, I don’t think he’s going to play. That will not help them score points in this game as well. I would actually lean a little bit Kansas City, but I’m not going to play the game.
TJ:
In Denver, not unlike my Buccaneers had so much trouble just getting to 17 points or 20 points in this matchup, and you wonder if this is a game… And Kansas City’s injured. Kansas City’s got guys hurt all over the place on both sides of the ball. Can they be explosive enough in this game? We’ll find out. Mahomes is even limited in practice right now as well, guys.
Scott:
Yeah, and I’ll just point out one last thing. I’ve mentioned this a few different weeks there where they’ve been favored. Mahomes in his career, 10-12 against the spread, a road favorite of more than three points. So when they’re a big road favorite, they’re not covering even 50% of the time in those games.
TJ:
Interesting. Good numbers there. No official play for that matchup with Kansas City and Denver coming up in the AFC West. And our final game shall be the Monday nighter, the New England Patriots, the Arizona Cardinals. Cardinals off the buy. Patriots suddenly struggling as they were beaten by Buffalo on Thursday Night Football. By the time they play against the Cardinals, that will have been 11 days earlier. They also lost previously, the previous Thanksgiving Thursday night, to Minnesota. So the Patriots are still a one point favorite with the Cardinals off the buy. The total is 43 and a half. Scott Kellen, quickly back to you for our final game here of the show. Monday Night Football, a thought or two from you.
Scott:
Yeah. I actually played this. It’s not a best bet [inaudible 01:12:41] show purpose, I’ll explain it in a second, but I did play it over 43 and a half earlier in the week. I’m just waiting on a little bit of offensive line information for New England, et cetera, before I really want to call it a best bet for show purposes. But the Pats’ offense hasn’t been great this year, but when they played worse than average defenses in Arizona, I rate 19th, they’ve scored 24 against Green Bay, 29 against Detroit, 38 against Cleveland, that 14 dumpster night against Chicago on Monday night, 26 against Minnesota a few weeks ago. I don’t see any reason that they cannot get into the 24, 27 point range against this Arizona defense. That means we only got to get 17 and 20 points out of Arizona. And Arizona now coming off their buy, they got Marquise Brown and DeAndre Hopkins together. They played their first game together, the game before the buy. I think they can move the ball a little bit.
And New England has struggled a little bit against these mobile quarterbacks, and obviously we’re going to get that from Arizona as well. So with that mobile quarterback and being able to move the ball a little bit and get some points, some good receivers… Offensive lines always a question mark for Arizona, and New England certainly has a good pass rush, but I think Arizona can get to 17 to 20 points, and I certainly think New England can get to 24 points. That would get us over potentially the 43 and a half. [inaudible 01:14:03] lean over for now. Personally, I have betted, but I want a little bit more information before I make it official for show purposes.
TJ:
We see some of the peeps going back and forth about Arizona. Chris, they’re saying it’s tough to trust the Patriots. We do know this, Chris Farley. They will not be exchanging Christmas gifts, quarterback Mac Jones and “offensive coordinator” Matt Patricia, after the F-bombs were flying on the Buffalo visiting sideline from Mac Jones, wanting to throw the bleeping ball more, yelling it at Patricia. It’s not good. It’s not pretty. With that all being said though, they’re on the road here against Arizona. Belichick seems to do well in these situations, must win, road team, circle the wagons. Any thought, if no official play, to wrap it up?
Chris:
I’m just surprised to see some of the comments here from the audience. People are really willing to bet on the Cardinals, but man oh man, this is a team that’s won four total games this year, and if there’s anything Mac Jones plus Matt Patricia [inaudible 01:15:04] that we’ve seen throughout all season, it’s on the Cardinals’ offensive sideline. They just have a lot of derision. They don’t seem to be… I mean it’s DeAndre Hopkins, it’s Kyler Murray, and then it’s like, we’ll see what happens.
And I think Kliff Kingsbury’s job could be on the line in this game too. You’re coming off a buy, off a disappointing loss. We only lost by one point to the Chargers two weeks ago. Even against the Patriots’ defense, prove that you can do something against an elite defense. Against the San Francisco 49ers, Cardinals only scored 10 points. Against the Eagles, only 17 points. And this New England defense is going to bring it, that’s for sure. I know that they’ve struggled against mobile quarterbacks like Kyler Murray, but I agree with what Scott said. I think the Patriots’ offense will be better this week, they’ll be able to put up some points, and I might trust that more than the Arizona offense at this point. Arizona for all intents and purposes is out of the playoff picture. I don’t even know what they’re playing for any more. Whereas the Patriots are still right there in it, in a very competitive AFC East.
So I would lean towards the Patriots here, just the spot, Arizona coming off the buy. We’ve seen Arizona put everything together, in that 42 point game against the Saints for example, and they can really hum when that happens. I just think there’s such a disconnect between Kliff Kingsbury and Kyler and everything going on there. So looking at intangibles like coaching, there is maybe perhaps one of the widest disparities this year between two head coaches. So I’m probably going to trust Bill Belichick in most of these situations, lean Patriots.
TJ:
All right. And again, Kliff Kingsbury has been knocked from here to the Himalayas and back on not finishing strong at Texas Tech or with Arizona. Now we’re in December. Are we about to see the swoon again, as Chris alluded to, that gets him ousted in Arizona? We’ll find out from Monday Night Football, no official play from the guys. Wow. Busy show. Again, for those that joined us like halfway through or two thirds through, thank you for doing so. Hit the like button, make sure you’re subscribed. Let’s show them, shall we, the best bets here one more time, what you guys are on officially for this week. I won’t go over everything that you see up on the screen, although the guys are in agreement on a two team tease. They are also on agreement in the side of the LA Chargers’ game with the Miami Dolphins. And again, the boys have been rolling the last two or three weeks. Pay attention to what you see right there on the screen with the best NFL betting lines .
All right. With that, full show. Well done again, guys. Final thoughts real quick. Chris Farley, final thoughts? We all good here for a Thursday, heading to another week?
Chris:
Man, I almost never plan what I’m going to say in these final thoughts, but I’ll say this. I don’t know. I really don’t. You know what? [inaudible 01:17:52]
TJ:
[inaudible 01:17:52] I’ll pick you up, I’ll pick you up. It gets more meaningful right now, every game more magnified right now. You want to be in the playoffs, you better start winning right now. Correct?
Chris:
Yeah. Right. And I was going to say this too. I’m a fan of the NFL, I’m a better of the NFL. And I’m exhausted by this season. This season has been up and down, all around, a lot of parity. So imagine how these players feel at this point. Exactly right, TJ. Pay attention to things like coaching, leadership on the field, teams that show more poise, especially the quarterback. Those are probably the teams that are going to thrive. To our point also about Kliff Kingsbury. Not everybody’s intended to be a head coach in the NFL. This is usually the time where we start to see the elite, the cream rise to the top.
TJ:
All right. Scott Kellen, final thought before we’re gone here on the program.
Scott:
Just looking forward to another great week. And the way they do this now with these extra playoff teams, to your point, this game for the Raiders tonight, despite this dumpster of a season to start with, all of a sudden this team still has a chance at the playoffs. So understanding where [inaudible 01:18:58] can be motivation as well. And I think lastly, the viewership’s been going up. We see a lot of the same people here every week. That is great. We love spending time with you guys. Really appreciate it. And hopefully we can help you guys all out a little bit this week as well.
TJ:
This may very well have been a live audience record as we’ve been sitting here week after week. Great job, folks. Again, thank you for finding us. We’re here live on Thursdays at 1:00 Eastern time. Scott Kellen, thank you, good luck. Hope the roll continues. Chris Farley, you’ve been doing well as well. Hope it continues. Thanks to Antonio and everybody at BetUS. Don’t forget to check out our sportsbook website. We thank you for watching the BetUS NFL show.
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