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NFL Week 14 Preview

Speaker 1:

Week 14 of the NFL season is here and there’s a lot riding on it. There will be plenty for fans to enjoy this weekend, from Superbowl hopefuls competing for first-round bye to rookie players looking to establish themselves. It all kicks off with a game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Minnesota Vikings on Thursday Night Football. This game has the potential to influence the NFL draft and the playoffs in 2022. It seems appropriate, given that both of these teams are projected to end with records that will keep them out of the top twelve and out of the playoffs. There are plenty of games to look at on Sunday as well, so without further ado, let’s get to our experts.

Matt:

NFL week 14 approaching. Chris, our Patriots are going to be on a bye this weekend, so who are we going to bet on? Chris, we got you?

Chris:

During the bye? I got nobody to bet on this week. You know, I had a really crappy week. In fact, it was so bad, it was so embarrassing, that all the whiskers from my beard retracted into my skin because they wanted to hide. Yeah, without the Patriots I’m in trouble. But the Chargers have been good. I did win six Charger games in a row.

Scott:

Hey, you can keep betting against Seattle, right? They’re playing this week.

Chris:

It didn’t work out well last week.

Scott:

No, I know.

Chris:

It has before, though.

Matt:

Nor [inaudible 00:01:44] the Chargers.

Chris:

It’s just rough. It’s rough. It’s rough.

Matt:

Yeah, yeah. It’s been an interesting stretch, lately, to say the least. But, Scott, I love your thoughts. Maybe we can just kick things off by looking at the Patriots, along with the Eagles, Dolphins, and Colts. All on a bye this week. This late in the season, what do you make of those four teams getting the bye and how we might want to look at them starting as soon as next week?

Scott:

I’m going to make a comment, and I don’t know if it’s true or not, so I’ll just qualify that up front, but it does seem teams who get the byes later in the year, and we’re talking about teams who have a chance to do something in terms of winning the Superbowl, it seems it really benefits them. They’re getting that final break. Like you said, I think this is as long into the season we’ve gone. Maybe week 12 or 13 prior to this? And you think about it, a team that goes into playoffs, they can be playing for another eight weeks after that. These teams that had a bye in week four or something, to try to get all the way to the Superbowl, that’s a full season, essentially, without a bye.

Scott:

I think the later in the season you get it, I think it’s beneficial. It’s just a nice break for those teams that are pretty good and having a chance to go somewhere. Like I said, I don’t know if I can confirm that and where that’s worked out, but Tampa I think had a late bye last year. That served them pretty well. It just seems like over the past few years that that has worked out well. I think it’s beneficial to the good teams.

Matt:

Yeah, I’m starting to think that maybe we could use a bit of a late season bye for ourselves if we take a look at our records, year to date. I know one and two week for me last weekend, that was unfortunately the best among the three of us. But, Chris, I’d be really curious to get your take on one of the losses we all took: Minnesota against Detroit. I know with you being the resident Lions fan, I was happy for you in that sense, but as you watched that all unfold on Sunday what was our reaction, the fan in you versus the better in you?

Chris:

I got two things to say, and that is that this has been an odd season and this is something to learn from, is that no matter how good you are, we all have great histories and great track records and it’s been an odd season. No matter how good your process is, you’re going to have your peaks and valleys, and they’re tough. Those peaks and valleys can question your sanity sometimes. If you don’t have a good process, then you do nutty things. You have to trust your process and you need to be able to ride out those peaks and valleys, and not go too high, not go too low. It’s just an important lesson for people to learn, that it happens to everybody.

Chris:

As far as the Vikings-Detroit game, I could care less. I want the Lions to get draft pick. And I bet the Lions season went total under. It was really good to see, but I was top heavy with the stupid Vikings teasers. I had a couple of those, so I needed the Vikings to just win the game and it was just bittersweet, quite frankly. But, you know, I compartmentalize betting with rooting for teams. If I have to bet against the Michigan Wolverines, I’m going to win one direction or the other. Same way with the Lions or other teams.

Matt:

Yeah, I think the best takeaway here is that our records, we’ll certainly look to improve them as best we can moving forward, but really we’ll try to do our best providing value, not just with the picks, but, Chris, as you touched on, the process that we get into as we break down these games.

Matt:

We’ll turn the page to week 14, and as we get that ball rolling, if you’re with us on YouTube, please go ahead and give us a quick thumbs up, subscribe to the channel, and jump in that chat. Let us know what you think as we take our early look at the week 14 slate. Chris, coming right back to you, one of the cornerstones of these Tuesday shows, what kind of line movement are you expecting over the course of the coming days as we take a look at a full screen graphic here. Walk us through game-by-game what you’re anticipating.

Chris:

Oh, that’s a darn good question, and I just lost that page here.

Matt:

Minnesota, now or never, is your note. Maybe we can start with that as a cue.

Chris:

This is funny. Hold on one second. Jeez. I’m having technical problems. I’m sorry, guys. Okay, here we go. Minnesota’s a strong three right now, and they’re getting quite a bit of support. That’s going to toggle. It’s leaning toward that three and a half. If you’re betting either side of this game, you have no excuse for not having the best of the number at some point. But it’s not going to be going down anytime soon. It’ll probably go up, if anything.

Chris:

I think Kansas City is between nine and 10, and probably the Raiders are not going to get too much support here. If you like Kansas City, you’ll likely see tens later on. New Orleans is around a five, five and a half. It opened at six. I don’t think anybody thinks the Saints can cover six. It probably is going to stay in the Never-Never Land between four and a half and five and a half.

Chris:

The Cincinnati-San Francisco line is really interesting. We’re going to have to see what the update is with the San Francisco injuries. Cincinnati had a lot of injuries last week, also, unfortunately for my wager. Too hard to tell where that one goes. It’s going to be injury based. Tennessee back in action. Looks like they may get Julio Jones back. That would boost the line back up. I’m kind of surprised to see this below 10, but I would think it would pop back up to 10. Cleveland might see a bungee three. That’s my new term, where it might hit a number and then come back down, because nobody’s going to bet Baltimore early. There’s a lot of question marks. It might hit three, but it seems pretty stable at this point, only going higher.

Chris:

Carolina certainly won’t go up. If anything, people will bet Atlanta, in my opinion, and Dallas looks like a bungee three and a half, where Dallas betters are just hoping that there’s enough Washington support to drive it to three, and then they lose confidence, and then they have to bet it back up.

Chris:

Seattle’s probably going to go down to seven. I’m not sure it goes back up or not, but it seems like it belongs at seven. If you like Houston, you might want to grab that. Denver, Detroit’s going to get some support, and I think that will go down to seven and bungee back up at some point. The Chargers line is Jones dependent, whether he starts or not, so it’s in that Never-Never Land of 10 to 11. That’s a tough call. I don’t think we’re going to see any major line movement in that one, though.

Chris:

Tampa Bay seems to be toggling between a weak three and a half or strong three, and that’s probably where it belongs. Tampa is going to get a fair amount of support, so at some point I think the threes may dry up. Green Bay, we were seeing games in this range every week, 12-13 range. They shoot up to 14 game day, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see that happen, but that’s a tough call. Arizona, that seems a little similar to New England-Buffalo this past week, where it’s going to toggle a bit, two and a half, three, possibly, but Arizona does have a lot of support. If you like Arizona and seeing a two and a half pop up, take it.

Chris:

I guess that’s about it for the week. That’s about one of the few things I’m doing really well is, I’m doing very well in the line movement predictions.

Matt:

Whatever happens after the lines are done moving and the game kicks off, sometimes another question, but I like that figure of speech, the bungee analogy. Scott, as Chris touched on some of these games, it might bungee depending on some injury news that we get in some of the coming days. What are some of the biggest ones that you’ll be keeping a close eye on?

Scott:

Yeah, we’ve got a few to look at here, and just look at what happened last week. We’ll start with the Jets lost really two people here. Corey Davis. He’s now out for the season, wide receiver, probably their best wide receiver. Cornerback Michael Carter. He’s in concussion protocol, so we’ll see what comes from that. They also had a couple other people, tight end Ryan Griffin, get banged up. We’ll see what his status is.

Scott:

Washington lost Logan Thomas. They thought he was going to have an ACL injury, but it looks like it’s not an ACL injury, but the severity of it is still unknown. He’s probably still going to miss some time. We’ll have to wait and see on that. The Ravens lost a big one there, cornerback Marlon Humphrey. He’s now out for the season. Remember, they lost Marcus Peters earlier in the year. They’ve had a lot of injuries in the secondary. That’s a big, big loss for them.

Scott:

From the Bengals standpoint, I’m going to go down to the second one there on the list, first Logan Wilson, linebacker. Very good linebacker. He has got a shoulder injury. He is out indefinitely, and then Chidobe Awuzie, he’s day-to-day with a foot injury, but a very good cornerback for them. That bears watching to see what his status will be for this week as well.

Scott:

Jaguars center Brandon Linder just came back and got hurt in that game. I could not find any updates on him this morning, so we’ll see what plays out there, but he is their best offensive lineman. And I think Chris may have alluded to this, 49ers cornerback Emmanuel Moseley now has an ankle injury. He’s out a few weeks. That’s a loss for them in the secondary. Buccaneers, that secondary’s been a revolving door all year. Jamel Dean, he is in concussion protocol. A chance that he could still come back and play this week, so we’ll watch that one.

Scott:

And then we threw a couple on there that have hit the COVID list as of yesterday, and it’s pretty significant players. Keenan Allen, wide receiver for the Chargers, COVID list, and Cam Jordan, defensive end for the Saints. It’s relative for the Saints here as well, because remember Marcus Davenport missed last week. They’ve got a whole host of injuries, so that one bears watching.

Scott:

Then one not on our list, it’s just a team update. Chris alluded to it with Julio Jones coming back, but they also activated Kevin Byard today, a very good defensive player for them, off the COVID list, and Rashaan Evans and David Long, both on defense. They could possibly come back this week as well. The Titans might be a getting a little bit healthier here coming off their bye week as we go into week 14 as well, so that bears watching as well.

Matt:

And as we move on from the injury segment to our Thursday night breakdown, we’ve got two teams, no strangers themselves to injuries and COVID list players throughout the course of the season, that being the Steelers and the Vikings. Minnesota currently a juicy three-point favorite, laying minus 120, total 44 and a half. Chris, you and I both already in play on a side in this game. Let the people know who we like.

Chris:

Yeah, I have to take the Vikings here. We’ve got Pittsburgh coming in off of a short rest with an elderly quarterback and with lots of problems still over there with Pittsburgh. Minnesota, obviously, isn’t looking good, either. Charting the last five weeks, Pittsburgh actually ranks 32nd in the league for rankings. 20th in offense, 32nd in defense. They’re not doing well. They’ve had the largest shift over the last five weeks, whereas Minnesota, even with that debacle last week, they’re middle of the road, 15th in progress. They’ve held their own. They’ve gained the second most amount offensively and second worst amount defensively. That’s why it averaged out to 15.

Chris:

But they’re back at home. They do much better at home. Boy, did they take crap after that Detroit game. Cousins says he’ll never forget this game with the Lions. Basically, it’s a metric play. I just have these teams too far apart and I’m just hoping that we get Cook back. He looks like he’s on target to get back, possibly, so that would help. That’s about it there.

Matt:

When you mentioned this being a metrics play, that resonates with me because when I look at this line, I know home field advantage is diminishing, but it’s really close to calling these equal teams when we consider the Vikings having one of the stronger home field advantages in the league, and the Steelers going on the road on a short week after that match up with Baltimore. I see a lot pointing to Minnesota there, again, despite the debacle in the end game in Detroit.

Matt:

I know that if Cook can’t go, and looking like Thielen won’t go, that could cap the ceiling for their offense, but defensively Patrick Peterson on track to return and Kendricks and Barr looking like they might get back in the fold as well. That could be a big boost for what’s been a pretty leaky defense for the Vikings.

Matt:

Ironically, last week on the look ahead lines, I was eyeing minus four and didn’t end up pulling the trigger. I know we’ve got to downgrade the Vikings and upgrade the Steelers based on what we saw Sunday. I still can’t get to this number. For me, it is pretty simply a buy low, sell high type of spot, maybe a bit of a sanity check. I mean, if they say the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, expecting different results, if the Vikings can’t answer the bell on Thursday night, it might be time to put them in the drawer for good this season, but I’m willing to give it one more shot with them in this setting.

Matt:

Scott, what are you looking for on Thursday Night Football?

Scott:

I think, first of all, the game last week, you can’t ignore it, but, man, they’re already missing- I’m speaking of the Vikings here. They’re missing Hunter and Griffin already on the defensive line. Then they’re missing the two linebackers, Kendricks and Barr, like you said, Matt. Patrick Peterson’s out. They lose Adam Thielen in the middle of the game or, really, quite frankly, early in the game. They already went into that without Delvin Cook. That was just a lot.

Scott:

That defense was missing key parts at every level of the defense, and you can’t just completely throw it out. There was a lot of issues as far as going for two-point conversions. Offensively, they don’t make sound decisions in this era. But that defense is kind of back now. They’re still not going to have obviously Griffin and Hunter on the defensive line, but they’re getting the linebackers back. Looks like they both practiced full practice today. They get Peterson back off COVID. That’s a good thing.

Scott:

I’ve got this basically at the number from a side standpoint. I’m not playing the side. It’s hard for me to play and lay points with the Vikings for a time that has just struggled to win with any kind of margin at all this year. They’ve got one win, I think, by more than seven points. I’m not really looking to take the Vikings.

Scott:

Although the point about coming off the Raven game, that’s a pretty big deal, I think. That’s a hard fought game for Pittsburgh, and then you’ve got their short week. That all makes sense. If I did anything here, I would look towards the under. I’ve got this pegged at just under 42 points, so I’d love to see the total just keep going up a little bit. I’d love to see Joe Haden come back, but he hasn’t had practice this week at all. That’s probably not happening.

Scott:

We said this last week. I don’t think them without Cook is that big of a deal. Madison is a very good running back. Now, remember, they also lost their left tackle last week. He did not play in that game and that hurts him as well. That all supports the under. For me, this is a little bit like last week’s Thursday night game. Kind of have to wait until we get a little bit closer to get some of the injury information cleared up, although we’re getting some good news on the Vikings on the defensive side.

Scott:

I look under right now. No play officially for me, but I would look under.

Matt:

And, Scott, if we see a 45, I know that’s a pretty key number as far as totals are concerned. You’ve already got a two and a half point gap with you making this game 42, the current line 44 and a half. If we see 45, does that get you in play on this number?

Scott:

It would help. Quite frankly, 44 is probably the more important number, so 44 and a half is a pretty good number. 45, like you said, Matt, just gets another key number in there. I may still play 44 and a half. I would love to see Haden come back, but I don’t think that’s happening, but I may still play the under here. I’m definitely leaning towards it. Pittsburgh, by the way, just over all these years, going back a long, long time, them going on the road, traditionally, they have been under team for the most part as well. We’ll see how good that offense can be on a short week’s notice coming off the Ravens, but I lean the under. By the time Thursday gets here, I may still pull the trigger on that as well.

Matt:

Yeah. Well, perhaps we’ll have a chance to keep the under train rolling as we get to the next game we’ll talk about today, and that would be a Sunday contest. Las Vegas traveling to Kansas City. Currently at bet, you have the Chiefs laying 10 at even money, total 48 and a half. Scott, what are you looking for in this big AFC West showdown?

Scott:

Hey, I’m going to say the same things I said about Kansas City-Denver last week, Matt. This is with the Chiefs here as seven point or greater favorites, which they’re obviously in this game as well. Now, after last week, they’re now 14 and four to the under, as seven point or greater home favorites. They’ve allowed 21 or more in just five of those 18 games, and against the Raiders here, for whatever reason, the last 13 years they’ve played here- Now, this did not go their way last year, but they’re 10-2-1 to the under, versus the Raiders here as well. They played under here.

Scott:

We know this defense is playing very well. Yes, I know Denver moved up and down the field on them a little bit last week, but they’ve now allowed 17 or less in six of their last seven games, speaking of the Chiefs, and if Waller’s out here, I’d feel better about the under as well. We’ll see what happens there, but my numbers support Kansas City here. They supported them last week, and they support them in this game as well. If this number would trickle down like it did last week, I would maybe get involved with Kansas City in a teaser as well, but I lean Chiefs and I lean under in this game, just based on the history of what the Chiefs are doing at home as large favorites and the defense has played very well lately.

Matt:

Yeah, I’m not sure if I can really come around on a lean in any direction at this stage. I want to give the Chiefs credit. These wins they’re compiling absolutely count. They’re sitting pretty in the AFC West right now. They just haven’t been all that convincing lately and I think back to last week. I know they won in covered against Denver on Sunday night in prime time, but they were net negative in yards per play. I think they were saved largely by going plus two in turnovers, including a big pick six. Still having a bit of trouble making heads or tails of the Chiefs, seeing a lot of potential that they just consistently aren’t quite tapping into. I’ll probably be on the sidelines for this one.

Matt:

Chris, what about you on Sunday when the Raiders take on the Chiefs?

Chris:

You know, it’s frustrating loss on Sunday with Denver not being able to cover. Kansas City just doesn’t have that offense that is putting people away. We saw it all last year. Even when they did have the powerful offense, they didn’t care. They didn’t seem like they cared Sunday night, either, but they couldn’t help but cover, right? They covered by default. I can’t get behind Kansas City laying more than a touchdown at this point. My numbers came out at exactly 10.

Chris:

The one thing that would worry me a little bit about the total is, Vegas’s defense has been dead last over the last five weeks as far as improvement, and for the entire season they’re 28th over all. Their defense can really open up the gate, so to speak. That’s kind of a scary proposition, because they can sometimes put some points up themselves. I would definitely lean toward the ender. I’d just be apprehensive about it. But as far as a side, I would be leaning toward a teaser consideration, as Scott said. Teasers are just bad news lately for me, but that’s all I have on that. It just seems like one of those stay away games. Maybe the under, though. Maybe the under.

Scott:

Hey, Matt. I’ll just throw this in there, too, to Chris’s point. We talked about this earlier in the season, and once you get past week 11 it gets even stronger, but these divisional games go under and as we get past that week 11, they get even stronger, especially or higher totals. The last couple weeks, I mean, I’m just looking back. Let me try to find my sheet from last week. Minnesota-Detroit, that went over, obviously. Tampa Bay-Atlanta goes under. Denver-KC goes under. Indiana-Houston goes under. Yeah, San Francisco and Seattle went over. I think we can go back the week before that. Philly and the Giants go under. Chargers-Denver go under. Cleveland-Baltimore goes under. Pittsburgh-Cincinnati went over. We’re starting to see that. We’re getting later in the season. Divisional games. These guys know each other. They start to become a little bit lower scoring games.

Scott:

A little bit of wind in Kansas City. Maybe 15 miles per hour. Not horrible. Certainly not what we saw last night in Buffalo, but maybe a little bit of weather as well.

Matt:

Yeah, that 15 mile per hour might sound like child’s play to your point, Scott, relative to what we saw last night in Buffalo, but if your angle is a lean toward the under, for good reason, with this being a divisional rematch, we’ll start with you when we break down this next game we’ll get to on Sunday. That would be the Seahawks traveling to Houston. Currently Seattle laying nine, plus 105, total 41 and a half at Bet U.S. Scott, since this is an NFC team playing an AFC team, that familiarity not there. Guessing this might have you looking the other way, maybe a bit of a lean toward the over?

Scott:

Yeah. First of all, Tyrod Taylor got hurt last game. I think he could have came back in. They went to Davis Mills. We’ll see what they do this week. It might be Davis Mills. Who knows? It really hasn’t mattered. I’m going to caveat this as well, but I make the number closer to about 44 and a half or so. A little bit of valley to the over, but my numbers have supported Seattle to the over a little bit this year. We know that they haven’t really gone that direction. Yeah, they got there last week, but that was really flukey last week.

Scott:

But I would probably only look over in this game. But, again, Houston, they’ve just been so bad. I’m looking at last week. Indianapolis had a 58% success rate, Houston a 30% success rate. Now, the score dictated that as well. You didn’t even have to know that just looking at the score, but in San Francisco and Seattle, Seattle wins that game, San Fran has the success rate of about 55%, Seattle 39%. Seattle did nothing in that game. A lot of flukey stuff. The fake punt, obviously. It’s really hard to get behind Seattle as well.

Scott:

My last point in this thing, I am very situationally strong on Houston in this game. We’ve talked about this one situation where teams that are scoring 14 or less points for multiple weeks in a row, it’s just a dead winner every single year. It had Houston against Tennessee a few weeks ago. Even though, again, Houston didn’t play great in that game, but they won the game. I had Jacksonville against Buffalo a few weeks ago as well. It plays Houston here. My numbers actually kind of support Seattle a little bit in this game, however, so I don’t think I’m doing anything in this game, but it’s just two really bad teams. Even though Seattle won last week, their performance did not really equal a victory.

Matt:

Yeah, when I look at this one I see that that line of minus nine, plus 105, probably a good bit of teaser protection on the part of Bet U.S. I don’t mind it in this case. I’m kind of hoping that nobody makes me tease the Seahawks here. That could just be pretty ugly, asking them to cover their end of a teaser leg. I think it’s important to be aware of the stats when we look at that Seattle team.

Matt:

Last week, their first drive of the game, a 73-yard touchdown run on a fake punt. That counts toward their rushing offense and against the Niners rush defense, so I think that’s something to be quite mindful of moving forward, taking those stats with a big grain of salt. Yards per play last week, if we exclude that play plus a Seattle kneel down on the last snap of the game, the Seahawks minus 2.9 yards per play to the Niners. Yes, they won the game. Don’t want to take that away from them, but also don’t want to buy into it too much, expecting a big turnaround at this stage of the season with that team they’ve got. Stay away from me for the time being.

Matt:

Chris, what do you make of this Seahawks-Texans match up?

Chris:

I’m just happy I don’t have to play the game. My numbers come right dead nuts on this eight. Something kind of unusual that stood out to me is Houston somehow has gained the fourth most amount of value defensively over the last five weeks. Seems kind of odd that that could be the case, but they mostly play those boring games on a regular basis, other than last week.

Chris:

Seattle’s an enigma to me. There’s another situation where I’ve got the better team and San Francisco just gift wraps the entire game all game long to Seattle. Seattle couldn’t help but win. It’s just some odd results going on that are kind of unexplainable, because when you go into the box scores and you see how these games play out and they end up finishing a different way, that’s what I’m talking about from earlier. It’s like, well, that’s going to happen. Just grateful I’m just sitting out this one. You couldn’t pay me to play that game.

Matt:

Yeah, we have-

Scott:

No price? No price would pay you? No, nothing?

Chris:

No. I wouldn’t tease that game. I wouldn’t tease that game for Seattle, no way. Houston could win that game as far as I’m concerned, but how knows.

Matt:

Yeah, seems like quite a high variant setting and-

Chris:

There’s a-

Matt:

Go ahead, Chris.

Chris:

No, no, I agree. There is a variance in there. You would not be surprised to find out Houston won the game, and you wouldn’t be surprised to find out Seattle won by 20.

Matt:

Yeah. Yeah, when you’re playing minus 110 on average to do this stuff, if the variance increases, sometimes it just becomes not worth it at a certain stage. Scott, as far as the Seahawks go, a good shout out for you from the live chat, The Polo saying, “Good job, Scott, on the Seahawks call last week. I almost took the 49ers, but laid off because Scott liked the Seahawks.” Well done laying off, The Polo. I know Chris and I had the other side in that one, so passing was the more prudent move, I guess. Yeah, some nice love for Scott and that Seahawks call last week going head to head against the Niners with Chris as well as myself via kickoff.

Chris:

I would play that every single week. You play that Seattle every week and you’re not going to come out a winner in that situation.

Scott:

You know, and I’m with you. I was just thinking this, too, Chris. You remember a couple weeks ago you guys gave me crap about taking Houston against Tennessee, right? And Houston won that game.

Matt:

I was with you on that one.

Scott:

Yeah, you were. You’re right, that’s right. It was Chris, right? He was shaking his head, but I’m coming back in support for you here, Chris. That game, too, remember Houston didn’t do a whole lot in that game. Tennessee wasn’t focused, they were sloppy, they turned it over. Tennessee outplayed them from the line of scrimmage and they went right down the field on the very first drive and then turned it over. That game could have ended up completely different, and to your point last week, I just said it, San Francisco, 55% success rate, 39 for Seattle. I think you’re probably right. The ball bounced my way, but, hell, they didn’t play great in that game. We know that.

Chris:

That’s the thing that people have to understand is you’ve got to look deeper than just what the final scores are. That’s what we’re doing and we’re getting odd results lately. There’s nothing, I would have played this same schedule every week even knowing what I know. Just games played out oddly, and they have been.

Matt:

Yeah, that game had a little bit of everything. I know the Niners had a fumbled kickoff to start the second half and certainly some big breaks for Seattle, but also Adrian Peterson losing a fumble. I believe it was Gerald Everett turning a touchdown reception into a pick for the Niners to even enable that last drive. We had a second and 43 in that game, a safety, an illegal snap, just a little bit of everything. It was kind of, I think of the nod to Gil Alexander, the Plinko game of the week, because that just took so many swings.

Chris:

When are guys going to stop running balls they catch in the endzone out of the endzone on interceptions? I just don’t understand it. I thought about it. I go, “Why would you run that out of the endzone, you moron?” And sure enough, the safety happens.

Matt:

Yeah, maybe he had a plus 800 ticket on a safety occurring on the game, because that certainly set the stage for it. Chris, one more team we can dig into here. It looks like Kevy in the chat saying, “How about our Chargers, Matt? Bolt up.” I know you’ve had a good run betting against the Chargers throughout much of the season. When you look back at the game against the Bengals, that was quite a game of runs. 24-0 Chargers, then a 22 unanswered run by the Bengals, capped off by 17-0 for the Chargers. What do you make of that outcome? Another one where it seemed like it was taking big swings in favor of both teams at different stages?

Chris:

Sunday morning, you find out the starting center for Cincinnati’s not playing, the tackle’s not playing. Very early in the game they lost an additional three or four players, starters, during the beginning of the game. You’re two down short going in, you lose three more. Your starting quarterback dislocates his finger and you’re at 24-22 after all that? I mean, again, I would make that bet every week and I’d come out ahead.

Matt:

Yep, yeah. Fair enough. One more topic I’d like to get into here, this one coming from me rather than the live chat, but I think it’s pertinent. After some extreme weather last week, I mean, winter’s coming. We might see some repeats of this this season or certainly years to come. I’d love to dig into how you guys approach games with extreme weather just in general. I know there’s different talk about rain possibly helping the offense or the defense. A lot of snow, cold temperatures, or, again, as was the case last night in Buffalo, a bunch of wind. Generally, as you guys start to see an ominous forecast over the course of the week, and especially as we get a sense of how it’s actually going to affect a game, open ended to either of you, how do you generally approach it? Anything in terms of any sides, totals, props, end running, anything to affect your betting approach?

Chris:

I should go first here, because I know Scott does the totals more, but the wind is what affects everything. The number one lesson you could ever learn about what wind does: you can’t throw the ball. That one field goal looked like a boomerang. It’s going to affect the totals, it’s going to affect the point spreads. It’s going to affect props for pass receiving props. You don’t chase the point spread, you chase the props and bet under on the receivers and the passing stats. I don’t even bet props and I know that.

Chris:

Those are my immediate reactions. Snow is different where snow and rain doesn’t affect the totals that much. Actually, I don’t know, Scott will answer afterward, probably contribute a little bit more toward going over, because the players on offense know exactly what they’re doing. It’s harder for the defenses to react as fast. You get more fumbles, you get more just goofiness that leads to short fields and stuff.

Scott:

Yeah, I would say obviously wind’s the main one, especially if it’s cross wind, because then you don’t even have one direction of the field you’re going where you get two quarters of it being favorable for you. Cross wind’s a big one. Every bit of wind, I mean, 10 to 15 miles an hour, okay, yeah, that impacts you a little bit. 15 to 20 impacts you a little bit more, but when you start getting north of 20 then it really starts to have an impact on you.

Scott:

I’ve had a lot of games, I just mentioned it earlier today on the Kansas City game, 15 mile an hour winds. Okay, yeah, that’s going to have some effect, but it’s not going to be awful. But when you start getting north of 20 miles an hour, that does start to impact you a little bit. To your point, Matt, and, Chris, you’d mentioned the unders, I had a buddy text me last night. He says, “What about this under longest field goal, under 44 and a half?” Had another buddy text me today. He took under 45 and a half for longest field goal. I think he maybe played that a few days early, but I started to think about it and not only is it more difficult to make the field goals, like Chris said, the boomerang one, but coaches are just going to naturally shy away from even attempting the field goal. Now you’ve just got less attempts as a whole as well.

Scott:

Yeah, just looking at different props that maybe play into that and if you can stay ahead of it a little bit, maybe you can even get a little bit more favorable number before there’s major adjustments on that. The wind’s a big one. Snow and rain, not a big deal. Maybe super heavy snow can bog you down a little bit, but the winds are really the one that you want to watch out for.

Chris:

And another important thing to be aware of is that you can’t just look at a weather forecast. There are sites that you can go to. Just because it’s windy in the city doesn’t mean it’s windy in that stadium. Some stadiums are much more protected from the wind and outside elements, and you have to know which stadiums there are. It may be different winds or different weather coming from different directions that may affect the same stadium in different ways. If you do your research, you can find that information out.

Scott:

Yep.

Matt:

Yeah, I think, Chris, our mutual friend, Adam Chernoff, loves to vent about not just the city versus the stadium, but the stadium versus the field. The broadcast showing flags at the top of a stadium whipping around and then sometimes things are tame as can be at field level. Really doing your homework can go a long way.

Matt:

A couple more angles I’ll point out. Again, for the next time we see an extreme wind game, especially when these games are stand alone in prime time, I mean, it’s almost like a Superbowl in terms of props and in play opportunities if you’re into that sort of thing. I found a good number on no score in the first seven minutes last night, just noticing that that’s not adjusted heavily enough for all the running attempts we’re going to see early in the game to keep the clock running.

Matt:

Chris, you mentioned under all things passing, certainly anybody who touched Mack Jones unders for attempts, completions, yards, touchdowns, probably made out quite well last night. Another thing, two point conversions. We saw the Patriots go for two when they got their first touchdown with some headwinds coming at them, and that can be something to consider for props. Also, for sides and teasers. If teams are going for two, that makes the king of key numbers, three, a little bit less important. That’s worth keeping in mind with sides and teasers as well.

Matt:

When we have the wind not just a factor overall, but a really strong bias depending on which direction teams are going, sometimes if it’s just going sideways across the field that makes kicking hard in any direction, but, Scott, to your point about the field goals, what kept me off of the shorter field goal props was that somebody who couldn’t have made it from 30 yards one direction might have had a chance to make it from 65 yards going the other way. The way it shook out yesterday was quite interesting, but in play I think something worth monitoring.

Matt:

When we had a team like the Patriots going into the wind in the first quarter and they broke that long touchdown run, I bet the money line immediately, just figuring an 8-0 Patriots lead in that situation was so much more important than an 8-0 in a similar game state under normal conditions, because shortly after that touchdown they were going to get the wind at their back and have a much better chance to build on that lead before Buffalo could do much. Of course, Harris has the punt go off his helmet and you blink and it’s 8-7 anyway, but sometimes these live lines, when they’re being priced according to a chart, you would get these outlier conditions and that can open up some nice windows of opportunity.

Matt:

One more thing I’ll add to that end. After the first quarter, the team going to get a tailwind in the second quarter, in this case the Patriots, they were a good bet at that break between quarters. Similarly, between the third and fourth quarter, you could get an advantage taking the team that’s moving from a headwind into a tailwind. One call out here, I learned about this NFL rule. You guys might have already known. We can’t necessarily make that same assumption from the second quarter going into a third quarter, because Sean McDermott had the choice coming out of the half to choose his direction or take the ball. He ended up taking the ball and, in the third quarter, going into the wind. They couldn’t do much with it anyway. Probably would have benefited the Bills a lot more to give the Patriots the ball to start the third quarter once again, even though the Patriots got the opening kick off, because then the Bills could have had the wind at their back in that fourth quarter. That might have made things a lot more interesting down the stretch.

Matt:

There’s a lot of nuance here, but I feel like it’s worth noting because these games, they’re rare, but when they happen, again, it can be like a Superbowl in terms of prop and in running opportunities. I thought that that could be a good speaking point for this show fresh off of that game last night.

Matt:

Guys, I also want to touch on the concept of bankroll management, because these props and in running opportunities can get really exciting, and there are some legitimate edges to be had, but what do you make of correlated bets and making sure that, even as your volume stacks up, you’re also protecting yourself from getting over extended?

Scott:

Well, you’re right. I mean, you could make, let’s say we had the Vikings last week and some teasers stuff, right? I actually played Kirk Cousins over his passing yards, just looking at what he had done there and some other factors. Ultimately he got there, but if you start stacking up three, four, or five different things that all support the same thing, it’s the same thing in the Superbowl where people play a ton of props, to your point next thing you know you’ve got five, 10 different things all headed in the right direction. If that game goes completely the other way, you effectively have a five or 10 unit play on that game and you could be in trouble.

Scott:

I think you have to be a little bit careful there, just that you might get way too heavily weighted towards one direction. You always want to keep an eye out for that, definitely.

Chris:

I suggest if you have an interest in in game type stuff, stare at the board. It’s worth it for you to spend time just looking at the board and how the numbers change and what to expect, because in game is very difficult and it’s dangerous, quite frankly. I think a lot of these casinos will free roll you. You’ll punch something in and you’ll be spinning, and they’re waiting. If something goes against you, you’re sure as hell going to get confirmed. If something goes in your favor, you’re not getting it. Those are the things to watch.

Chris:

When you’re looking at the second halves, like last night, I had a lot on the Patriots last night. When I looked at the end game, when they opened the second half line they had it at minus one and a half, which would have brought, it was four points at the time, which would not have gotten you the three. I wasn’t going to take that, but you would have thought everybody would have been betting Buffalo and that’s where the action’s going. No, no, no, no. They were taking New England plus the one and a half and, believe it or not, that’s a big move, because you’re going on and off of three. Came all the way down to minus one even from the minus one and a half juiced. You know that’s where the sharp action is, because the favorite is not getting the money at home and it’s going the other way. That should set off the alarm bells, “Uh oh, that’s the wrong side.”

Chris:

I knew. I hedged a little bit, just some peanuts, but I knew by looking at the line movement this is not going to go my way.

Matt:

I like that point that you made, Chris, about betting live and being cautious. I’m reminded of a big point from the book, The Logic of Sports Betting, where betting live and betting in game is not necessarily the same thing. Earlier, when I referenced betting the Patriots after their first touchdown, that’s during a commercial break where you’re not at that same risk of things going for or against you before a bet gets confirmed. Same thing between quarters. When you know teams are flipping directions, but as long as there’s no action you have a much better chance of getting a fair bet.

Matt:

That said, to the point, Scott, you were speaking to about keeping correlation in check, I was on the Patriots plus three and a half pre-game, laid three after that first touchdown end game. When you start to look at them between quarters, I mean, you’re one or two plays away. If Buffalo gets a touchdown at the end of the game, that could be a major swing, so you want to protect yourself from that a little bit. Similarly, if you’re betting all things passing under. If there are six different bets you’re making, maybe make them around a quarter of a unit instead of one unit a piece. Yes, if you have edges, that means you’ll win less, but it’s also saving you from a potential day of ruin. I think, again, a lot of edges and angles to attack here, but it’s never worth possibly going bust.

Chris:

You know, the other wildcard in that is that I just spoke about how that hedge is going back and forth off the three. You had to actually realize that, wait a minute, if Buffalo scores that touchdown, that game’s not going to push on an extra point, not in that win. They’re going to go for two. Could you imagine the most heavily bet game, this potentially could have been the most heavily bet game of the year, we haven’t seen the figures on it, but could you imagine if Buffalo had scored? They’re up two? Everybody in the world has three and a half, three, and two and a half, and they’re going for two? I mean, wow.

Chris:

You have to factor that into your in game type of activity that, wait a minute, that three’s not as important as you think it is. Now all the sudden you got a two and you got a four in play, and you’ve got all these different factors in.

Scott:

Yeah, I was texting my buddy that same thing. You’re dead right on that. The other thing, I wasn’t paying attention to the end game last night, so I don’t know where these numbers were. I’m just trying to think when the scoring happened, but if you like the under and the Patriots had that long run for a touchdown, I don’t know what end game was after that, but that’s a long run. That’s probably not going to be repeatable. Yeah, you might get burned on it, but let’s just say that game went off 39 and a half, or whatever it went off, and again I’m making up some numbers here, but they make that long run and all the sudden end game’s now 42 and a half-

Chris:

I saw 45.

Scott:

Okay, yeah, so 45.

Chris:

It went up to 45.

Scott:

You’ve got some value there, right? Because it’s not like that team went down the field, 10 play drive, just smashed them in the mouth and scored. They had one long run, and then you come back the other way with the fumble that essentially gave Buffalo another seven points. That was basically a free seven points again. Yeah, it’s windy. A lot of stuff can happen. You can have multiple turnovers, like the San Fran-Seattle game, but the same thing there. You’re just getting that many more points now, because they’re not earning those scores, to a degree. They’re just fluke plays that are happening. I don’t want to call a 60 yard run or whatever it was a fluke play, but it’s just not something that’s repeatable.

Scott:

If all the sudden you get a whole bunch of extra value with that, you may want to take that if you believe the under was the right side to start with.

Chris:

I think one of the most important things to grasp on playing once the game has started, when I first started doing it, like last night’s a perfect example. When it got to be that score, I’m like, “Oh, shit, I should have played that over.” You know, the ignorant part of me, not knowing exactly what you said, because you’re 100% right. What you have to do is check yourself and say, “Well, wait a minute. Where is this game supposed to be? 39 by game close. And how have those points been put up? Is this really going to keep on? Yeah, there’s a lot of points quick, but how were they put on the board and where is the game supposed to be?”

Scott:

Yep.

Matt:

Yeah. I think we covered a lot of good ground here in terms of how to approach these outlier games with the conditions in terms of props and running opportunities, some bankroll management. I’d like to wrap up on one more note, and that would be grading these games, because, Chris, you talked about seeing some points put up in a hurry. “Oh, I should have done this or that.” With that in mind, a forward looking take on that would be what to do with what we saw last night for the rest of the season. I think we need to cut these offenses some slack and really hold the defenses in check. I mean, the Patriots gained 19 yards through the air. Are we really going to hold that much against their pass offense or give the Bills pass defense that much credit? It’s de-weighting those kind of results.

Matt:

With your guys’ models, how do you account for that? I know sometimes you’ll just get stats fed in automatically. Can you do something to can you do something to de-weight numbers, if not take them away altogether, so that you’re getting a more accurate depiction of what could be informative moving forward?

Chris:

It’s something that I have to do manually and it’s a concern of mine. There’s a lot of moving parts with evaluating numbers. Buffalo hasn’t beaten anybody that has a good offense. How do you factor in, Buffalo had nine people in the box the whole game and the Patriots are able to get all that yardage? It’s not just the numbers and the box score, it’s how did they get the numbers? What are they facing against? Buffalo knew they were running the ball every single play and couldn’t stop it. I alluded to that last week, that I didn’t think they would be able to.

Chris:

Here’s something else that I gleaned from it. Is that a real show of lack of confidence in Jones? I mean, I waited and waited and waited for play action. I thought once the wind came that they would start to air it out. Hey, let’s go deep on first down. None of it. I mean, vanilla, vanilla, and no trust in Jones, potentially.

Matt:

I wonder how much of that was keeping it in your back pocket, but when you’re picking up, I know there was the long run and Scott touchdown, but still about six yards a carry. I mean, the Patriots were just consistently imposing their will. It was body blow after body blow. I almost just think Belichick sees that and he probably just lights up. I mean, he seemed as happy in that post game press conference as I’ve ever seen him. That style of play and maybe keeping something in his back pocket for the rematch coming up pretty quickly.

Matt:

Scott, I know you were about to jump in. What do you make of Mack Jones only attempting three passes last night?

Scott:

First of all, I’d like to say he averaged a very respectable 6.3 yards a pass in that game last night and the win, so.

Matt:

Thank you, Jonnu Smith, for that miraculous catch on the first one.

Scott:

To answer your question there, Matt, I’ll take the numbers out and, like Chris said, it’s a manual process. As we get later and later into the season, especially from a quarterback standpoint, teams are playing without maybe their normal- Maybe it’s a bad example, because Seattle’s been so bad, but they played three weeks without Russell Wilson. Or Baltimore plays a week without Lamar Jackson. I try to account for those and take them out and just see where the numbers are. Then you also can have them in there and you just see where the differences are. You try to gauge it. It’s tough.

Scott:

You have to account for, in some ways, I think- Last year, I remember Cleveland played the Raiders in a very, very windy game, Houston in a very, very windy game, and maybe even Jacksonville. There might have been a third game in there that was somewhat windy. I would just get in a habit, at least from an offensive standpoint, and you almost need to do it defensively, too, because it’s the same thing, I would just try to remove those numbers, at least from a total perspective certainly, just because they’re having dramatic impacts on their numbers, obviously. That’s one thing where success rate helps a little bit, because it’s not taking into account yards per play. I mean, I guess it is, because it’s all measured on do you get the first yard or do you get enough yards on each play, but I think you have to account for it. At least be aware that it’s there and, if nothing else, maybe look at it both ways and try to decipher what to do with the numbers from that.

Chris:

As you’ve referenced the wind and the no passes and Cleveland, that obviously goes right into, did you know that the Detroit Lions actually won a game against the Cleveland Rams in 1937 without throwing a pass?

Scott:

You weren’t at that game, were you?

Matt:

Was a forward pass a thing in 1937?

Chris:

There was no pass, and it wasn’t out of futility. They won 28 to nothing.

Matt:

Was the forward pass legal in 1937?

Chris:

Yes, it was.

Matt:

Wow. We’ve come a long way. One more thing, to Scott’s point about the numbers and how to look at them, not just the numbers on a per play basis, but the number of plays. If we look at tempo last night, 106 plays. The average game has about 125, and that difference of 19 plays, that’s worth about three drives. Not just the yards per play, the overall yardage, but even the plays want to look at tempo for totals, team totals, derivatives and props moving forward. There might be value in giving last night’s numbers a hefty grain of salt.

Matt:

Any final thoughts, guys, on those extreme conditions and how we might want to apply them moving forward?

Scott:

I think it’s what you said there. We’re stating the obvious, I guess, but it really just shows teams that are run heavy, and obviously that was to the extreme last night, but that clock just keeps ticking away, right? There’s no incomplete passes, there’s nothing. It was the extreme, obviously, but it just states that point. Obviously teams that are pass happy can be a little bit different with the incompletions and all that kind of stuff.

Matt:

Yeah. All right, well, some fun strategy talk. Hopefully some good evergreen stuff the audience can apply moving forward. Feel free to let us know if this is of any value as we’ve wrapped up some of these Tuesday shows recently with some bigger picture process conversation. On that note, we’ll go ahead and close up shop. We’d like to thank everybody for turning in. On YouTube, go ahead and give us a thumbs up. Subscribe to the channel on your way out. We will be back with you to break down the rest of the weekend board on Friday at 12:00 p.m. Eastern, 9:00 a.m. Pacific. We’ll see you then right back here at BetU.S., where the game begins.

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