Speaker 1:
… Tuesday and Friday on our Bet US NFL YouTube channel. Subscribe, hit that bell now, and never miss a show. BetUS, where the game begins.
Speaker 2:
As the NFL season gets closer to its conclusion, certain doors are closing and others are revealing tiny cracks. While some patterns are visible in this Wild West clash, no one has yet to claim the division in the AFC. The Green Bay Packers won the NFC North, while the Buccaneers were denied in the South due to their persistent inability to cope with the Saints.
Speaker 2:
Week 16 begins on Thursday Night Football with the 49ers traveling to Nashville to take on the Titans who lead the AFC South division. We’ll have two games on Christmas Day. Lambeau Field will host a football classic between the Browns and the Packers in the afternoon game. And, as we reach Christmas Eve, the Colts go to Glendale to take on the Arizona Cardinals. As Lambeau may see the Colts fall out of wild card contention, while the once mighty Cardinals are looking obviously weak following this Week 15 defeat to the Lions.
Speaker 2:
The majority of the regular season games will be played on Boxing Day Sunday with a few significant match-ups to keep an eye on. The Buccaneers have the chance to secure the postseason place in the NFC, and the Chiefs can achieve the same in the AFC. Both teams have tough opponents in the Panthers and Steelers, so expect some fireworks. As for now, our football experts are here to preview Week 16 of the regular season, so stay tuned.
Matt Landes:
NFL Week 16 on the horizon. And, guys, Week 15 still not in the books. We do have a couple bets coming up for a special edition of Tuesday Night Football. Before we get there, Cris, three-plus weeks to go on the regular season, and you’ve already cashed in a big contest. Looks like pretty soon we might see another big check behind you when we’re doing these shows.
Cris:
Well, I don’t get a big check for it. But, yeah, I was fortunate enough to finish the last man standing NFL odds, finally. I’d been in the top 20 four out of the last five years, and ended up splitting it with one other person, which was nice. We split $150,000, and I had a partner, myself. It’s a nice payday, because I’m not doing very well in the Circa this year, or the Super Contest. And, more importantly, I had a really good week betting, so that helped out.
Matt Landes:
Yeah. What’s it like when you pick up that kind of payment at a casino, trying to get safely back to your car, and then getting those funds home without any issues?
Cris:
Well, other than getting stuck in an elevator along the way for 20 minutes, it’s okay. No, it was funny because I was with some people and they were trying to figure out where I was going to put the money. But, I always wear cargo pants, and they were shocked. There was places to put it. So, it’s okay.
Matt Landes:
Cris, with the big cargo pants. I’m liking it [crosstalk 00:03:29]
Cris:
Hey, old people like me dress in practical methodology.
Matt Landes:
Yeah, all right. Well, it was a Total Wine & More gift card for Christmas this year. But, maybe for another special occasion I’ll pin it in my mind. The cargo pants, an option for you and those big payouts at the casinos around town. But, as you touched on, a good Week 15 as well, not just for the purposes of season long contests, but when we look at our season-long record to date. I will go ahead and paraphrase the great Harry Doyle from major league here. In case you haven’t noticed, and judging by the attendance, you haven’t, Cris and I have managed to win a few here and there and are threatening to climb out of the cellar. Of course, Scott continuing to stay above water in his own right. And, we will look to build on that as we take our early look at Week 16 as well as the couple final games on the Week 15 board.
Matt Landes:
Before we get there, wanted to thank everybody for joining us on YouTube today. Please take a quick moment to give us a thumbs up, subscribe, jump in that chat. Let us know if you have any questions, as well as what you think as we take our early look at Week 16 and our final look at Week 15. Guys, it’s weird doing this show on a Tuesday with a couple of games just about to kick off. Let’s speak briefly about the Seahawks-Rams games kicking off soon. Cris, you’re in play in a teaser in that one, I believe. So, what are your thoughts when Seattle takes on the Rams at SoFi Stadium?
Cris:
Yeah. I wish the NFL was like this every week because I’m able to use the same betting strategies that I use in MMA, which is there’s certain events or certain prices or certain lines that you just don’t want, but you want them under certain circumstances. And, you can throw them into other bets and then they become, instead of married to each other, they become independent bets along the way, which is basically what I call multipurpose teasers or parlay.
Cris:
So, I did that with Minnesota. On the show I gave it a minus six. But, I followed it up and I didn’t want to have to lay 6 and a half. So, I used Minnesota pick, either in parlays or teasers, into games coming up. And, that’s similarly what I want to do with the Rams game. I think the Rams, they still have their injury issues, they’re missing a couple from COVID tonight, but they’re still in good shape. And, Seattle’s going to be missing Lockhart. The Rams seem to be hitting on all cylinders, and Seattle really is relatively hopeless anyway. They won a couple games in a row. But, all I want is the Rams to win this game. So, I have the Rams in a teaser. Is that correct? With Green Bay [crosstalk 00:06:22] We’re going to talk about that later.
Matt Landes:
Yes. And, I am with you there also with the Rams taken down to a minus one on a teaser. For me, it’s a small play adding to some of my Packers exposure from a teaser with the Eagles that I placed just this morning. And then, quickly that line went a little haywire. And, the reason I still see some value in this teaser play is that if you’re looking at the Rams and Packers on a money line parlay right now, most books will pay out about minus 140. So, for the teaser, just laying the one, if you can find that for minus 120 or less, I think that’s simply better value from a numbers standpoint. And, Scott, what are you looking for in the Seahawks-Rams match up?
Scott Kellen:
Yeah, no play for me here, Matt. I have a little bit of value on Seattle, but I’m not playing it. As Cris said, they’re missing some people both on defense and offense, as are the Rams here. But, I’m just going to sit back and watch. I’m actually in some Fantasy Football playoffs. And, I’m basically done. My competitor has players in both these games tonight. So, for the Rams game it’ll just be watching more so from a Fantasy Football standpoint.
Matt Landes:
Sounds a little bit like the way a lot of pro betters described the Super Bowl with prop bets. Maybe looking for some boring games for the purposes of advancing in fantasy. Yeah, I know what the saying goes. Nobody cares about your fantasy team. But, I feel you there. I’ve got an opponent with DK Metcalf. So, I’ll just hope that the Rams can keep him in check. Hoping for a good showing from Jalen Ramsey and a Rams outright win. Of course, the other game we’ve got going on simultaneously this evening, Washington taking on Philadelphia. A consensus play for the three of us. Scott, why don’t you kick it off with your look at a side in this one?
Scott Kellen:
Yeah. I’m looking to play Washington here plus 10, which is the number at Bet US. I did also play under 42 earlier this morning before I started going under. I would play under 41 and a half or more for Washington here. One of the big questions with this COVID outbreak they had was they were decimated on the defensive line. They basically have everyone back on the defensive line now. Still missing Kendall Fuller in a secondary. They are still down on their fifth center, I think, on the offensive line. Also, missing someone else. The right guard, Scherff, is also missing. And, of course, no quarterback here. Garrett Gilbert’s going to start. Heinicke and Kyle Allen, I believe, are out, which intrigued me to the under, for sure.
Scott Kellen:
I’ve got the number pegged at about 37. So, still some value even at 40, but I’d prefer 41 and a half to really make an official play. I’ll just lean to the under. But, I like Washington getting the 10, even quite getting the nine. I’ve got this number at about seven and a half. Philly, at the end of the day, is still just an average team, and we know laying a lot of points in the NFL with average teams against other average teams historically does not work out well. The defensive line’s a key thing for me here. So, I’ll grab the points also with Washington in this game.
Matt Landes:
Yeah, and when it comes to this game, for me, I think at plus 10 we’re seeing an overreaction that we’ve seen in quite a few games in recent weeks when it comes to injury and COVID news. I feel like if you’re not first to market betting on information, it has consistently shown value to just fade this theme right around post. So, if you can still get access to Washington plus 10, I certainly endorse that. I do know, as you touched on, Scott, this line’s been moving all over the place. Even as we do this now, it’s still a bit of a moving target. So, I’d say if it touches eight and a half, I do still like the Eagles in a teaser. But, at plus 10 just as a straight-up side, certainly on board with Washington. And, Cris, you’re rounding it out, making it a unanimous play for us on Washington, plus the 10.
Cris:
Yeah. First, I want to comment that if you see me looking around, you’re here at the command center, and all the injury news scrolls across. So, when I start to see it move, that’s what I’m looking at. I’m not distracted or disinterested. I’m very interested. But, to echo what you guys said, a perfect example was Baltimore this weekend. That was an additional play that I added in my bets over the weekend. The numbers just get out of hand on some of these games.
Cris:
Now, it’s not every game, but more times than not there’s going to be an overreaction. You see that oftentimes in NBA play also where people are just overreacting. By the time the average person learns of the news, the line’s already moved and corrected, because people that had their numbers and their databases are going to move it all the way to a number that has no value. And then, the public finds out about it and starts to move it even more. And, now all of a sudden you get value the other way. So, keep an eye on that.
Cris:
I’m on the Washington, also. I played them plus seven earlier, and it went down to four and a half briefly. When it started climbing, it looked like we weren’t going to get the quarterback support that we needed. People were asking me, “Well, what do we do? What do we do? Do we get off the game?” and I’m like, “No.” These teams are average, like Scott said. I went through and I tried to differentiate these teams, and they’re so married in where they rank, how they’ve been doing the last five weeks, how they rank for the whole season. How can you begin in over a touchdown in this game? You blindly bet these games and you’re going to win more times than you don’t in the situation, especially by the divisional rivalry.
Matt Landes:
Yeah, I think that’s a fitting way to wrap up our final look at Week 15 before a couple of those last games kick off. Let’s turn the page, guys, to Week 16. Cris, the cornerstone of these Tuesday shows, of course, the line movement forecast. What do you got for us starting with Thursday night, San Francisco taking on Tennessee?
Cris:
I think we’ve probably seen this at the peak on San Francisco, which it was touching four for a while. I think it’s going to sit there and maybe actually inch down. But, it’s certainly not going to soar up. I think it’s a resistance at four. There’s a lot of COVID news in Green Bay. And, that line has been bouncing around seven and a half. And, that’s just going to have to depend on what really happens with people getting back in. Because, that line looks about right where it is. So, unless there’s major news, it should be right in that area. Arizona has been seeing one way action, which is on Indianapolis so far. And, at some point, it’s going to meet some resistance. It’s even went to one the other way in some places. And, at some point, it’s going to come back the other way.
Cris:
So, understand that it’s not going to just keep on going Indy’s way, I don’t think. Tampa bay, they’ve got some issues that are affecting their line up. I think we’re seeing some elevens. It’s not going to go up. It’s going to probably just sit there. Maybe inch down. Philadelphia is around 10. There’s no way of telling without seeing what happens if Philadelphia gained. If they do really well, maybe it goes up. If they lay an egg, that line will certainly be under 10.
Cris:
Houston and the Chargers. Chargers have big COVID news. It’s off the board in a lot of places. It’s nine and a half if you can find it. And, I don’t think there’s any hurry to do anything without the COVID news. Atlanta is sick. Some places, Goff is questionable because of COVID. He’s the new superstar after last week. He says he’s feeling fine. So, that line’s going to sit like the house by the side of the road until we find out what’s going on with Goff.
Cris:
Cincinnati is two and a half. That is going to be dependent on Jackson. And, more Baltimore COVID news. It’s the never ending news. I think they’ve got seven players on that list, again. The Rams, they’re three. It’s going to depend on how they do tonight and they have to make sure they come out unscathed. That line looks okay, though, if it comes back and all things the same. I don’t think you’ll see anything major.
Cris:
The Jets, two and a half. That might bungee three, quite frankly, between those two bad teams. But, there’s not going to be any one way action on Jacksonville, that’s for sure. Buffalo has lost Beasley to COVID and if any more players get COVID, that’s going to affect the New England line, which is sitting at two and a half. That might do a bungee effect also, and touch three and bounce back. But, it could inch down it. It seems like another good line.
Cris:
Seattle hasn’t played yet this week. If they do really bad, it’s six and a half, right now, if you can find it, then the line will come down. But, it shouldn’t be volatile. Kansas city is at seven and a half to nine and a half. But, that’s going to be off the board for days, I think. They’ve decimated with COVID. So, that’s just in limbo land. Las Vegas, Denver, nobody cares. It’s sitting at one, one and a half. I’m not sure anybody’s going to care enough to move that line significantly.
Cris:
And, Dallas is a 10 and a half, 11. If Washington comes out like Barn Burners, that line might tighten up because they’ll be getting healthier. If they look horrible, then it might go up. And, New Orleans, sitting at three. It’s inching up a little bit. It might see three and a half or strong threes. But, nothing significant should move that line, I don’t think. That should do it.
Matt Landes:
Yes. And, Scott, as we turn to you for injury news, I noticed more games on that full screen graphic we just saw off the board than on the board. So, certainly injuries and COVID as big of a part of the news cycle as ever. What are you keeping a particularly close eye on over these next few days?
Scott Kellen:
Yeah. From an injury standpoint, and we just left all COVID off of this, just because COVID is just… Ironically, probably two of the worst teams in the league, the Jaguars and Jets are probably the healthiest from a COVID standpoint. But, they got other issues, obviously, with their team. So, from an injury standpoint, Nelson Agholor, he got hurt last week, receiver for the Patriots, concussion. So, he’ll be in concussion protocol. We’ll have to watch that.
Scott Kellen:
Concussion’s running rampant here. Tight end, Pat Freiermuth for the Steelers also will be in concussion protocol. Julio Jones got hurt but we’ll talk about him because he’s in the Thursday game for Tennessee. Also, Sterling Shephard, achilles, out for the year as wide receiver for the Giants. Broncos, another concussion quarterback, Teddy Bridgewater. So, we’ll see what happens there. Buccaneers, two receivers here. Godwin now out for the year with an ACL. Evans was a hamstring. So, we’ll have to monitor that.
Scott Kellen:
I left off running back, Leonard Fournette, because I think he’s going to be okay. But, he also hurt his hamstring in that game. So, just bears watching. The Ravens are already decimated in the secondary. They lost Tavon Young in that game last week to the Packers. Again, another concussion. Just a ton of concussions here. For, the Jaguars safety, Rayshawn Jenkins was hurt and I think it was his ankle. But, they put him on IR today. So, he is basically done for the year. And, left tackle, Cam Robinson, hurt his neck in that game. So, bears watching.
Scott Kellen:
And, for the Jets, defensive tackle, Quinnen Williams, pretty good player for them, hurt his shoulder. So, we’ll have to watch there. And then, like I said, just a whole mess with COVID. And, we may talk more about COVID later. But, the one good thing is NFL made some changes regarding COVID late last week. So, guys can bounce back sooner than they could before if they’re vaccinated. So, we just got to watch these things. Guys that go on COVID today could be available Friday, Saturday, Sunday. So, it just all bears watching. And, like Cris said earlier, it’s just a very fluid, moving every single day, every single hour of the day. So, we’ll just keep to watch on the COVID thing. And, we’ll obviously have a lot more updates on Thursday when we do the next version of this show.
Matt Landes:
Yeah. And, in the meantime, we’ll just keep our fingers crossed for a fairly quiet news cycle, especially as far as the COVID outbreaks are concerned, for these games that we’ll talk about the rest of today’s show. And, we’ll kick that off with the Thursday nighter San Francisco traveling to Tennessee where the 49ers, currently a three and a half point road favorite at Bet US, total 44 and a half. And, Cris, in the line move forecast, you said the Niners price point might be approaching it’s ceiling. With that in mind, what are you looking for in this one?
Cris:
Well, it’s a difficult game just because Tennessee was a tough and painful loss this past week. They should have had that game and they just handed it back to Pittsburgh. Generally, San Francisco is a team that I’m supporting and usually I’m betting against Tennessee, which I had bet against them last week. But, they outplayed Pittsburgh. So, again, I talk about being able to pivot and I don’t regret it. Because, you look at the stats on that. I think they doubled the yards that Pittsburgh did. I worry you have San Francisco, similar situation as Seattle, where they go off a good game, and they’re expected to lay three, three and a half. And, this time they’re looking at a short week. And, it’s a big disadvantage for the road team on a short week.
Cris:
So, metrically, San Francisco is probably going to be a good play. I don’t get my numbers until after these games tonight, unfortunately. So, I’m a day behind. But, I’m guessing it would lean towards San Francisco. And, Tennessee’s not scoring anymore. They just stopped in their tracks. The most amount of points they’re scoring 13, 20, 13, 13. San Francisco, when Kittle and Deebo are healthy, you aren’t stopping these guys. And, they can put some points on the board. So, I lean San Francisco, but at this point I’ve got to just pass on this game.
Matt Landes:
Yeah, I think one of the biggest things I’m interested to see is if the market makes any more of what I consider to be maybe the most misleading scoreboard result of Week 15, that Titans lost to the Steelers. Tennessee’s defense holding Pittsburgh to just 3.7 yards per play. The Titans done in by going minus four in turnovers. And, three of those turnovers were lost fumbles. So, that’s particularly random. I think the Niners might be due for some regression the other way. They benefited from a goal line stand on the opening drive of that game against the Falcons on Sunday.
Matt Landes:
The Falcons ultimately oh for three on fourth down, just one for five in the red zone, compared to four for five in the red zone for the 49ers. But, of course, if we see some negative regression coming for San Francisco, it would help if they were playing at opponents with some wider receivers, capable of exploiting their weaknesses in the secondary. And, Scott, once again, it seems like we’re just not sure what the Titans are going to be able to do to that end.
Scott Kellen:
Yeah. I mean, Julio Jones gets hurt last game. I think there’s, especially with this being a Thursday, pretty good chance he doesn’t play. Now, AJ Brown, I believe they’ve activated, or will activate. I think he was on COVID at one point. But, I think there’s a chance he comes back. So, maybe he replaces Julio. But, they’re still hurting at the receiver position. Rodger Saffold who’s had this injury that, he has admittedly said, just causes him to have to just sit out a couple plays every game. He actually just missed last game. I was expecting him to play and they deactivated him. So, he’s their right guard, pretty good player. So, we’ll see if he goes. I make this number 3.1 for San Francisco. Make the total 42. Basically, where the numbers are. But, I was looking back at San Francisco, going back the last three years, which takes us back to 2019 when they lost in the super bowl to the Chiefs.
Scott Kellen:
And, it includes last year, of course. But, at the beginning of last year they were healthy. Then they got hurt four or five games into the year. But, San Francisco has been a road favor. I’m just looking here. One, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine, 10, 11, 12 times, going back to the beginning of 2019. In only three of those games where they road favorites against playoff teams. Earlier this year, just a couple weeks ago against San Francisco, they won that game by three. I’m going to put Philly in there because I think Philly has a chance to make the playoffs. Earlier this year, they win by six. And, a Sunday night, last week of the season, 2019, they went to Seattle and won that game by five.
Scott Kellen:
So, they haven’t really traditionally been a road favorite against playoff teams. And, I think Tennessee is a playoff team this year. To your guys’ points, Tennessee is not doing much offensively. But, it just makes me wonder, are they being installed as a road favorite here? They’ve been very successful here lately. I’ve got them as my number four defense, based on going into this last week’s stat. So, they’re certainly playing well. Their offense is number 12. And, to Cris’ point, that offence is probably even better when you only factor in when Kittle and Samuel are playing.
Scott Kellen:
But, I’m a little hesitant to lay anything with San Francisco in this game. And, there’s just a tick of value with Tennessee. And, to Cris’s point, when you’re going down the road, especially non division on Thursday, I think that’s tougher. I’d lean Tennessee. And, if this thing started to trickle back up, which it probably won’t to Cris’ point, I would maybe get involved with Tennessee. I just got to be confident they can do some offensively. And, AJ Brown has to be, they got to have one of those receivers if I’m ever going to think about getting involved in their games, as well.
Matt Landes:
Yeah. You guys have both mentioned San Francisco on the road. And, not just that, but traveling most of the way across the country on a short week. So, that might magnify that factor. But, Scott, I wanted to see what you made of the fact that the Titans, certainly looking like a playoff team this year, but it’s debatable whether they’re even an average team in their current form. So, how does that factor into the trend that you cited?
Scott Kellen:
Yeah, I think that’s a valid point and I went against Tennessee last week. I’ve gone against Tennessee quite a bit. So, I was interested just to see where my numbers would come here if they would actually support Tennessee or not. And, like I said, I mean, they’re basically at three. So, this game’s pretty close to the line here. And, Tennessee hasn’t really done that well at home. But, I questioned San Francisco, and I could be dead wrong in this for the remaining three weeks here. I just always questioned San Francisco, Jimmy Garoppolo on the road having to win by a margin. I’m just not convinced of that. That this team is very good though. And, this defense is playing very well. They’ve got a couple great players in offense as Cris mentioned. You have to respect that, for sure. But, my numbers are… Putting them where they’re at.
Matt Landes:
Yeah, well it’s not just Tuesday and Thursday night football this week. We’ve also got a Saturday double header on Christmas day. So, let’s get to it. Cleveland in the first game heading to Green Bay. Currently off the board at Bet US, but somewhat widely available across the marketplace with some Green Bay minus sevens, total 44 and a half. And, Cris, assuming this line reopens at Bet US in that range side in total, what are you looking for when the Browns take on the Packers on Christmas day?
Cris:
Well, we’ve been talking about it all year. And, Cleveland just has been so average all year long. And, it isn’t going to change. Mayfield, he causes them so many problems. He’s just not good. And, the team as a whole, isn’t what they were supposed to be when they came in. They’re not scoring points and they just never had the chance to get on track. And, meanwhile, you’re looking at, once again, for the third year in a row, Green Bay, running away with the ATS numbers. They’re always undervalued in the betting markets it seems. Because, I believe they’re 12 and three against the spread, or somewhere in that neighborhood. Eleven and four. [crosstalk 00:27:12]
Matt Landes:
I wonder if they could have simply covered a teaser leg last week, but that’s a story for another day. Yes. They have been good over all this season for sure.
Cris:
But, yeah, getting it home, with them just taking care of business. I’m just asking them to win. Just asking them to win. And, I’m putting them in with the Rams. Just asking those two teams to win at home. And, you’re backing playoff bound teams that are reasonably healthy and just have some experience in winning, and demonstrated they can win. And, Cleveland hasn’t been able to do that. I mean, it’d be quite surprising for them to go in at Green Bay and win over there.
Matt Landes:
Yeah. I’m with you on this teaser. Going to go back to the well on the Packers after a late week teaser came just short at the last minute against Baltimore this past week. Still feeling good about Green Bay. Again, simply asking them to win outright at this point. For the Browns, Cris you said they’re not that good. In addition to that, this is going to be their second game in six days after their Saturday game from Week 15 got pushed into Monday. So, that compresses things for them.
Matt Landes:
And, that short turnaround might especially loom large defensively for them. Miles Garrett with a groin injury. So, if he goes, probably not going to be at a hundred percent. And, we know Aaron Rogers on the other side has been nursing an injury of his own for a while. But, he’s looking about as good as ever. So, if he can just keep up anywhere near his current level of play, feeling pretty good about the Packers’ offense. This teaser, overall, I look at as the numbers grab crossing down through the three with two clearly superior teams at home, again, asking them to do a little more than win outright.
Matt Landes:
So, give me the Rams minus one, paired with the Packers minus one, and a teaser. Scott, what are you looking for at Lambeau Field on Christmas day from your Green Bay Packers?
Scott Kellen:
Well, first of all, anything I say here is going to make these assumptions, which obviously could change. But, we’re going to assume Baker Mayfield comes back. We’re going to assume Jarvis Landry comes back. We’re going to assume Clowney comes back. We’ll assume Garrett plays and he’s somewhat capable. We’ll assume Kenny Clark comes back from COVID.
Scott Kellen:
Now, Packers just put Marques Valdes-Scantling on COVID list today. So, we’ll see. This is a pretty quick turnaround. He may miss this game at receiver. So, just know that. For me, I mean, the Packers, they’re playing incredibly well. To Cris’s point, they know how to win games. Rodgers knows how to win games. This team is coached well. They have allowed 28 or more in each or the last four games, though. But, can Cleveland get it going. Who knows? This offense in Cleveland is just a mess.
Scott Kellen:
I will say this, though. I’m just looking at this as we were talking. I went over on Green Bay team total points two weeks ago on Sunday night against Chicago. Last week this number moved on Sunday. But, I went over the team total. 24 and a half points on a Saturday for the game against Ravens, which is just unbelievably low against a decimated Raven defense. That thing shot up to about 27 and a half, I think, on Sunday. And, I’m just looking here. Their team total points with this total at 44, what’s it going to come in at? 26 and a half? 26 and a half to 19 gets you, geez, I don’t know, 26 to 19 gets you 45. The total sitting 44 and a half, 45. If they’re under 27 for team total points again, I would take Green Bay over the team total points again. They are going to score points. It’s just what they do. They’re going to score points. They’re going to get to 27 points in this game. I don’t see how they don’t do that.
Scott Kellen:
Even if Cleveland’s defense is playing respectable, Cleveland’s still a mess. Baker Mayfield’s a mess. They will do some things that probably give Green Bay some short fields, as well. So, just looking at this right now, it’s early, but if that team total points is under 27, I would play Green Bay over the team total points.
Cris:
It’s between 27 and 27 and a half.
Scott Kellen:
For Green Bay for team total points?
Cris:
Yeah.
Scott Kellen:
Are you seeing it right now?
Cris:
Yes.
Scott Kellen:
I’m just shocked at that. Because, they’re a seven point favor. Now, maybe it gets juiced under or something. Because, they’ve set that. Because, 27, 20 is 47 points and total for this game is obviously a lot less. So, it’s going to get juice lower. It’s another good point, Cris. Where are you looking at that? Well, I won’t ask you that.
Scott Kellen:
But, my point being that you get… Some of these books give you a team total points much later in the week and it’s then more relevant potentially to what the current line is. Whereas, the books that set that team total early on, a lot of times they won’t move the team total points. So, just juice the heck out of it if that total is moving three points. So, it pays to have books that do team total points both at early and late in the week. Because, you can get different numbers from that. So, look if it’s 27 or more, maybe not so much, but if it’s under 27 somewhere when it pops somewhere else, I would play it over.
Matt Landes:
Well, to that point, Scott, if we’re looking at a 26 and a half minus 115 or minus 120, and maybe some 27s, even money or a short plus payout, does that creep back into the equation where yes, the number’s not as favorable, but once you account for the vig, there could still be an edge there.
Scott Kellen:
Yeah, absolutely. At 27, even’s fine, I think. Or, obviously 26 and a half minus 120 I think is fine. I would do either of those. Yes.
Matt Landes:
Got it. Well, plenty to look out for in the next few days. And, maybe if we have more of a market presence on that number on our Thursday show, we may see Scott locking that in as an official play for the Week 16 card. But, for now, we will move on to the nightcap on Christmas. That being the Colts at the Cardinals. This game all the way down to pick’em after the Cardinals were a quite substantial favorite on [inaudible 00:33:14] headlines. Total in this 149 and a half. And, Cris, we’ve seen a lot of steam on Indy come in, but it might not be enough quite yet in your book.
Cris:
Well, this is a game of storylines, quite frankly. The line opened higher, seemed one way action on Indianapolis so far. You’ve got Indianapolis coming off a stellar win. I mean they held on for dear life in a way. But, they expose some of the things that they don’t do perfectly also in that game by allowing New England to get back into that game. Meanwhile, you’re looking at Arizona who couldn’t possibly look worse. I mean, they went in and played the Jared Goffs and got schooled. And, it was something.
Cris:
And, one of the things you always want to remember is you’re never as bad as your worst game and you’re never as good as your best game. And, this is the meeting of two of those issues right now, where you just sit there, and it’s like with the San Francisco, Tennessee. San Francisco’s a far better team than Tennessee. But, you don’t want to lay three and a half. I mean, you just look at it. You go, eh, it’s not for me.
Cris:
And, that’s what you see in a game like this, where you get all this one way action on the Colts. And, they’re looking like world beaters. And, the little guy in Arizona couldn’t even keep him within 17 in Detroit. And, that’s two weeks in a row where they’ve been exposed. And, Arizona, they’re doing the exact same thing they did last year. They’ve lost one, two, three, four. No, doesn’t go back far enough. But, they’ve lost more games than they’ve won recently since their incredible start.
Cris:
So, you’ve got a team that’s trending down, they looked horrible facing a team that is a world beater. There may be possibly a top three or four team in the NFL coming in there. And, that top three, four team in the NFL doesn’t have to lay any points. Well, that doesn’t pass the sniff test of logic, does it? But, simply put, the metrics on this is just too far out. I have to take the Colts. I’m already invested in them from earlier in the week with teasers plus seven and a half and eight, and plus one and a half. And, now that it’s Peck, we’ve lost a little bit of value. But, if you don’t have a wager on it, you can’t tease it up, because you’re not going through three and seven. Your only choice is pretty much to bet the pick. And, to me, it still has value.
Matt Landes:
When you talked about anticipated line moves, I think one of the takeaways for this game was you thought, if anything, the market could start to come back in on Arizona at this point. So, if somebody hasn’t bet the game yet, and you do endorse the Colts at pick’em, do you recommend still waiting to see if maybe they can get a better number in the game? Or, what’s your MO for somebody not involved yet knowing where you see this line potentially moving?
Cris:
If I wanted Indianapolis, I probably would play it now just to be safe. I think it’s possible that Arizona doesn’t get the buy back. I’m just saying it’s possible that they get a buy back over reaction. And, it might get a little bit because people over buy knowing that a line’s going to go to a certain point and they want to play middles. And then, at some point they buy back. At this point, you don’t play any games with it. I would just bet Indianapolis and not worry about losing a one or one and a half. Because, those numbers are, believe it or not, nearly dead.
Matt Landes:
Yeah. Well, thank you for that explanation is people watching might have seen almost a strobe light effect on my view. One of [inaudible 00:37:19], I think it’s back in and good to go now. So, we’ll see how this goes over the rest of the show. I think that, Cris, with regard to this game, I hear you on the Colts. I’m going to go ahead and sit it out for now though. I think the Cardinals might be this year’s team that peaked too soon. And, we’re really seeing that when it comes to Kyler Murray coming back to the lineup. But, now three weeks in a row, I think a pretty stark difference between being on the field and being on the field at full strength, something just doesn’t seem quite right. So, definitely not eager to back Arizona here. But, at the same time with the amount of market movement we’ve seen, I feel the ship may have sailed on any value for the Colts.
Matt Landes:
So, nothing for me at pick’em on this one. I do think it’s interesting, some of the discourse going on about Brandon Staley relative to Frank Reich. Last week, the Chargers two for five on fourth down. So, it seems like the narrative of Staley is reckless. Colts three for three on fourth down. And so, Reich is brilliant. I think largely they were following a very similar process. And, at the end of the day, in one game, the results may vary widely.
Matt Landes:
But, in the long run, that approach will get these teams to a similar spot. And then, of course, you factor for the talent and other coaching moves. But, as far as fourth downs go, the Colts certainly on the positive end of three fourth down attempts last Saturday night in their win over the Patriots. Scott, what are you looking for in this night cap on Christmas between the Colts and Cardinals?
Scott Kellen:
Hey, I just want to hit on that point too, about going for it on fourth down. I didn’t hear any criticism or even say, “Hey, Frank Reich’s a genius” No one talked about it. At least from what I saw. Which, again, is just amazing. If he doesn’t get it, if he goes over three, maybe people are talking about it. But, I think the other thing that’s often forgotten is if the overall percentage, and I’m just making up a number here, is 50% that teams make it on fourth and one or whatever. Some are making it 60%, that means some are making a 40%, and collectively we end up at 50%. There are some teams that are just much better at this than others.
Scott Kellen:
Would you expect the jets to be able to make it in fourth and one? Probably not. Because, they suck and they’re probably not going to make it very often. So, I think you also have to consider who the team is, who the coach is, who the personnel is. Are they equipped to do this, as well? So, that gets lost in the conversation, as well, I think from time to time. And, I would say, yeah, Chargers didn’t make it. But, I think Staley’s equipped to do that. Frank Reich certainly is equipped to do that, as well. So, just a two cents on that.
Scott Kellen:
For this game, my numbers come where they are, where the line is, basically. So, nothing for me. I was looking back though. First of all, what Arizona is doing again this year, they did last year. Last year we said, hey, Kyler Murray is banged up. He’s hurt. I don’t know if he’s hurt or not. This just seems to be a trend for this team. And, I don’t know if the league catches on to him. I’ve also noticed that I know they went into the Rams and beat them earlier this year. But, just seems when Murray’s involved in a big game against a big team, maybe another quarterback that’s big time.
Scott Kellen:
Put Wentz wherever you want in that conversation. He doesn’t quite produce as much as you probably like to see him produce in that regard, as well. So, it just worries me relying on him to come through in a big game. And, as Cris said, they’re on a down trend. They’re not on an up trend. So, that worries me. Some decent situations for me on Arizona in this game, but it’s a little hard to pull the trigger. I’m not seeing value from a line perspective.
Scott Kellen:
The one thing I did notice, just looking back, going back to last year, I’ve said this before. I think Indianapolis is a very similar team with Wentz and….
Matt Landes:
Rivers?
Scott Kellen:
Yeah, Rivers. Thank you. From last year. The quarterbacks are similar and obviously the Arizona team is somewhat what they were last year, as well. Indy, when they’ve gone on the road as either road favor of three or less, or a road dog of three or less, they’re in a very additive match up. They’re five and one to the over. They’re scoring points and they’re giving up some points in those games. Similarly, Arizona last year and this year, they are three and old to the over, is either a home dog of three or less or a home favorite of three or less, again against a team that they’re not superior to.
Scott Kellen:
They’re not completely inferior to. So, they’re able to score points. But, they’re giving up points, as well. Making the total 49.9, let’s call it 50. So, it’s basically where the total is. And, in today’s NFL right now, it’s a high total, what we’ve seen. But, perfect conditions inside. Again, there’s no value for me to take the over, but in these situations for both these teams and these profiles, they seem to scored points recently. And, maybe something will get me to the over between now and Thursday, but I just noticed that. And, I probably look over than under in [crosstalk 00:42:09]
Cris:
It just seems like after that New England game where they had to really bear down, that somehow the Colts will be a little bit more careless this week. And, I worry about Murray not having Hopkins. I think that’s one of the things that’s really important. When you miss your go-to receiver, that hurts. But, yeah, I see what you see where that can just get out of hand for some reason.
Cris:
Remember how that Minnesota game… Sometimes, you just pair two teams together that are willing to shoot it out. And, it seems like that’s the type of game that has a potential to do something like that. But, I couldn’t believe this. And, this says something’s wrong with this team. Arizona’s down 24 to three. It’s very late third quarter. And, they have fourth down at somewhere on the 14 or 10 yard line, and they kick a field goal. Yeah. I mean, what are they thinking?
Cris:
So, there’s something wrong there. Cliff was completely out coached against the Rams. And, when Campbell out coaches you and Goff beats you with a complete pickup squad at this point, they have nobody in Detroit, nobody. And, there’s something very, very wrong here.
Scott Kellen:
And, they were coming off a loss to be focused.
Cris:
Exactly.
Scott Kellen:
I had the under in that game, so I’m like, thank you for kicking the field goal. But, I completely did not understand that at all. And, to your point from a match up, and again, I’m using last week’s numbers because I won’t update. I’m like you, until after tonight’s games. But, Indy, number five, rush offense, Arizona, number 25, rush defense. So, Indy should be able to move the ball, you would think, on the ground. They move it against most teams.
Scott Kellen:
Arizona, again, this is for debate, without Hopkins, as well. But, number four, pass offense against Indy. Number 25, pass defense. And, now some of that for Indy is they’ve had injuries in the secondary and whatnot that are a little bit better now than they were. But, both these teams may match up for what they like to do in offense against their bulls in defense.
Scott Kellen:
And, it could help to having some success, as well. Hopkins wasn’t having a great year, but he’s still a body out there that you have to respect and defend to. And, sometimes that can just open it up for everybody else. And, I didn’t point out on the injuries. Rondale Moore got a little banged up. Again, he’s not primary receiver reform, but he’s a body. And, you start losing bodies and all of a sudden you start losing weapons on your offense and things can go downhill pretty quickly without a few bodies. So, just note that as well.
Matt Landes:
I think we’ll put a pin in it there for Week 16. We’ll get to the rest of the board on our Thursday show. And, before we wrap things up today, a couple questions from the live chat guys. First one, I’ll toss to either of you with a thought here. The question notes, interesting point about Green Bay being undervalued by the markets. Any other teams or trends like that?
Cris:
Well, for me, Green Bay for three fricking years has been undervalued. The metrics for Green Bay are just strange, and I don’t really know how to explain it. But, other people that are running metrics say the exact same thing. And, it’s just something that they’re doing. Now, in the past, New England was a burr in my butt because their metrics always undervalued them, too. So, I had a losing record against New England. And so, it’s shocking that I’m eight and one in New England games this year.
Cris:
I always thought before this year, I chalked it up to really good coaching, that they’re just doing all these little things. They allow their weakness when they can, if that makes any sense. And, they bear down when they have to. And, I have a funny feeling that that’s a little bit of that on teams that are undervalued and overvalued, that somehow they bend but don’t break, so to speak. They bungee their performances. And, that’s my only explanation for it.
Scott Kellen:
Yeah. I don’t know. I mean, I agree with you. When you look at success rates here, Green Bay… Was just trying to find them here. First of all, on defense, they’re number 30 in rush defense success rate. It’s not very good, obviously. [inaudible 00:46:32] middle of the pack past defense, but they’re not giving up points. Obviously, at the end of the day, that’s what counts the most, giving up points. And, the question is always is the dam going to break here on them or not?
Scott Kellen:
I guess, I shouldn’t say they’re not giving up points. I just said a little while ago, they’ve given up what 27 or 28 or more in four different games. But, their special teams are horrible, as well. And, that was a lot of what Chicago did with special teams and a few breakaway pass plays and whatnot. But, they know how to win. And, they win. They make the right decisions. Look at their offensive line. They’re down four of five starters. They’re down really two all pro left tackle and left guards, basically. Rodgers, doesn’t miss a beat. And, we’ve said this multiple times. A good quarterback can make a bad offensive line be pretty decent, pretty quickly. And, you just can’t undervalue that.
Cris:
The highest I have Green Bay rated is ninth. I have them ninth defensively and 14th offensively. And, they’re the number one seed. They’re going to get the number one seed in the NFC, unless Tampa Bay runs the table and Green Bay loses two games. So, that’s amazing. It really is.
Matt Landes:
Well, nothing has come out of left field at us so far this season. So, we can take it to the bank that the Packers have that one seed locked up at this stage with three games to go. In all seriousness, when I think of this question, there aren’t necessarily teams from a season long standpoint that I look to dig into deeply on. Cris, you talk a lot about pivoting from week to week. And, right now I’m starting to move in the direction of looking to maybe get back in place, supporting the Titans, if the number and time is right. Not betting them this week, we already talked about that game. But, I think about the arc of a season. I mean, they get smoked by the Cardinals at home in Week One. And then, they start to run unsustainably hot. As regression hits them, seemingly their whole offense gets injured.
Matt Landes:
And, we saw last week, now I think they’re running almost unsustainably cold with some of their turnover luck, and other factors that tend to move toward the norm over the course of a season. So, the Titans a team that maybe I’d look to getting play on. And, conversely, I look at teams like Kansas City and Dallas with just really hot defenses right now. I mean Kansas City, until last week, Cris, I think we talked about it. They hadn’t allowed more than 17 points for probably a month or more. And, I know the Chargers put up 28. But, I felt like that easily could have been in the forties if they don’t suffer a couple of drops and small things on high leverage downs. So, I think that their defense, while it’s playing much better than it was to start the season, now it might actually be getting too much credit.
Matt Landes:
So, looking for a pendulum to maybe settling somewhere in the middle. And, a team like Dallas. I mean, their defense, especially if those three guys, Gregory, Parsons and Lawrence up front, their past rush can do a lot more than what those season long numbers might indicate. But, they’ve also gotten four turnovers in three straight games. That’s not sustainable, no matter how you want to slice it. So, not saying I’m automatically going to be playing against the Cowboys and Chiefs moving forward, and on the Titans. But, I try to think of factors that don’t really bubble up in the mainstream sports media verse. That could be pretty meaningful, even if it means you’re pivoting on and off of teams over the course of a season. Does that make sense to you guys?
Cris:
Well, you have to look at all of that stuff. You know what? I can’t narrow it down to… Because, it’s the whole body of work. There’s so many different factors that come together, so to speak, sometimes without you even realizing it. What’s really unusual about when you’re using metrics and you’re following the data closely is you can see a team win the game and they actually look okay. And then, Tuesday morning you look at your new database and they fell.
Cris:
And, that’s actually what really works best and allows you to pivot faster. We’ve been on one team one week, and we’ve bet against that team the following week. And, that happens because there’s a bunch of other aspects with these teams that are, even though a team may be winning, or even a team may be losing, they’re going the opposite direction in a lot of different ways that aren’t obvious.
Cris:
And, that’s why it’s important, if you can have a model that reads in and puts all this stuff together. Because, just looking at the big glamor stats and just a couple of stats here and there, like the EPAs and the yards per play and stuff, that’s not going to cut it. There’s nobody kicking butt, picking games, that uses that data. It’s a whole giant soup of information.
Scott Kellen:
[crosstalk 00:51:34] Yeah. I was just going to say, I mean, I’ve always said if you feel like you can wake up on Sunday morning, Wednesday morning, whatever, and look at the paper and then decide who’s going to win. It’s not that easy. There’s a whole lot. I’m always just trying to find underlying data that’s just not on the surface, that gives you some insight to how a team performs in certain situations.
Scott Kellen:
You could argue Detroit’s been undervalued the whole year. I mean, given what they’ve done against the spread. And, the other way I would look at that, too, and we can maybe talk about that another time. But, the question was what teams are undervalued. Flip it around, too. What teams are overvalued? I mean, Seattle, Cris, you were going against Seattle for a while there probably because they were probably a little bit overvalued from how they were really playing and really capable of playing. So, I would encourage you look at the other way too, obviously. Just find teams that are being overvalued to go against as well as teams that are being undervalued.
Cris:
This Detroit-Atlanta game is going to be the perfect example we’re going to talk about on Friday. We’re going to come back to this issue.
Scott Kellen:
Or Thursday.
Cris:
Yeah, [crosstalk 00:52:45] Thursday, Thursday in the case of this week. We’ll have another programming reminder. Coming up in a few minutes. One more question from the live chat guys says, “I’ve learned all about teasers and money line parlays from you pros, but is there a place or strategy for the three team sweethearts? [crosstalk 00:53:02]
Scott Kellen:
You mean like a three team teaser or…
Matt Landes:
Yeah, I don’t know if I’m just missing slang about sweetheart being a bet type, or if this is asking about three team teasers and money line parlays. I think it [crosstalk 00:53:12]
Cris:
Well, three team teasers, or sweethearts are 10 point teasers. Okay. But, you’re usually laying 130 juice, which is hard to overcome. And, you’re going to more or less pick specific circumstances, where the only time that they ever come in handy is when you have basically 310 point favorites, give or take. Because, otherwise you’re either going over zero or you’re not getting key numbers. And then, sometimes if you punch in the money line parlay, you’re going to get a better price anyway. But, I would prefer to gravitate toward doing three team teasers of six points and getting plus 170 or plus 180. That’s where your better value’s going to be.
Matt Landes:
Yeah, I think to that last point, I think it can be really important to shop around. Some books on a three or four team six point teaser. On three teams you might see as good as plus 180, a lot of places might be plus 150. On a four teamer, you might see plus 250. You might get plus 300. And, when the gaps get that big, a four team six point teaser, if you’re crossing through a three and seven, at plus 300, that’s often a great bet. At plus 250, you’re stretching it. It’s almost like laying minus 130 on a two teamer. So, shopping around book to book, those prices can vary quite a bit. So, that would be my primary response to a question like this. Scott, any thoughts on any possible place or a strategy for three team sweetheart bets?
Scott Kellen:
To Cris’s point on the parlay, the one nice thing about the internet, you can go out and put in money lines and calculate a three team money line versus what that three team sweetheart 10 point teaser is going to do. Very, very easy for that, to see which one’s going to be more profitable for you. So, I would encourage you that to know if a 10 point teaser down to basically a pick’em, you have to have a little bit more data to be able to do that. And, you could probably Google it and find out what the numbers are. I can go run that too and find out. So, that one’s a little bit more difficult. But, always comparing if the money line or the teaser is a better bet. There’s plenty of parlay calculators out there in the internet that you can do that in a heartbeat and know which way is going to be better for you to do it.
Matt Landes:
Yeah. And, on the note of looking for the most possible betting value we can extract from the board, let’s pull up a quick recap of our best bets as of our Tuesday recording. I said so smoothly there. All three of us on Washington plus 10 kicking off in a little more than half an hour against the Eagles. Cris and I also teasing the Rams down to minus one, paired with a Packers minus one. And, Cris also involved in that nightcap on Christmas, taking the quote at pick’em.
Matt Landes:
Cris, before we get out of here, I know there’s one more topic you wanted to touch on. I had something in mind to make it a bigger conversation, but we can save my piece for another day. Just wanted to hand you the floor as it comes to a possible COVID opt out strategy down the home stretch this season.
Cris:
I guess the official COVID opt out is expired. But, now that we’re getting to the end of this season, you really have to wonder what kind of effort you’re going to get from the players. And, are they going to use the, oh, I tested positive for COVID excuse, or why do they want to beat themselves up for the last couple of games when, what are they going to get? Is the juice worth the squeeze? What we see at the end of basketball or hockey season. So, just be aware we’re at that time now where you got to pay attention to the motivations. And, it’s easier for some two to just put people on the DL or IR unexpectedly, and put some young kid in there instead.
Matt Landes:
When you talk about paying attention to motivation, is there anything that you’ve picked up on that can give you an edge on the betting market? I think we know if a team’s going to let down spot or a short week or back to back road games. Those are factors that seem to be priced in pretty well. But, is there anything from a motivation standpoint that you think you can pick up on that might not be accurately pricing [inaudible 00:57:30] some numbers we’ll see over the next few weeks?
Cris:
Well, I’m sure Scott will agree. The must win is really the must lose. So, it’s the old slogan. Must win. Must lose. If you’re in must win situations, you got yourself in that situation for a reason. And, everybody already knows that you’re in a must win position. So, you’re getting extra value to go against that situation. So, we’re going to see some instances pop up, especially in the final two weeks with the must win, must lose theory.
Matt Landes:
Yeah. Scott, it looked like you were ready to jump in as well.
Scott Kellen:
Well, that’s what I was going to say. If a team was so good that they could win whenever they want to, they wouldn’t be six and seven right now, or seven and eight in a couple weeks. So, now this team that may be properly priced was laying seven is now laying nine and a half because they need to win. There’s nothing different there that’s happened. And, unless that dog has just quit completely. They’re trying to spoil people’s lives as well and feel better about it.
Scott Kellen:
So, to your point, Cris, you’re laying an extra one, two, three points, maybe more, especially to that last week of the season. And, nothing has changed with that situation. It’s not like the quarterback all of a sudden is out. So, now the line has moved four points. It’s moved simply because a team who’s really crappy or average, I should say, now has to win. And so, now they’re laying four more. That’s not worth it. And so, it’s always best just to remember that and whether you want to play that dog or not, which is probably the… It’s not an easy play, necessarily, but it’s the value play. You just keep that in mind.
Matt Landes:
Yeah. Cris, I like that juxtaposition. Must win. Must lose. Reminds me of the saying if you must win, then you must not be very good. So, something worth keeping in mind over the final few weeks of this season, for sure. I think that’s going to wrap up our early look at the Week 16 card. Thanks everybody for tuning in. And, for those of you with us on YouTube, go ahead and give us a thumbs up. Subscribe to the channel on your way out the door. Friendly reminder, we will be back at a special time to break down the rest of the weekend board. That’ll be Thursday at 3:00 PM eastern, noon Pacific. So, enjoy a couple more Week 15 games in the meantime, and we will see you then right back here at BetUS sportsbook where the game begins.
