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T.J. Reeves:

Well, hello there and welcome in. It is another edition of the BetUS NFL Show for a Thursday. Final week of the regular season coming, week 18, with a lot of playoffs still deciding games, some not so much, and we’re ready to navigate through all of it. Thursday night football, not in existence, but we have Saturday football, we have Sunday football, all the way through the finale of the season, which will be the Sunday night game, the final regular season game. What is it? 256 of them, I believe. 256 regular season games?

Scott Kellen:

Add another 16, right? I think, with the extra week, I think.

T.J. Reeves:

All right, so maybe so. So then, what are we going? Like 272, Scott Kellen?

Scott Kellen:

Yep. Think so. Yeah.

T.J. Reeves:

The final game, whatever it is, the final game is the Green Bay Detroit game and then everything sorts out for the playoffs. Concluding with that one on Sunday. Great to have you with us. I’m T.J. Reeves. We’re here live Thursdays, 1:00 Eastern Time. I’ve got Scott Kellen, who you just heard from. I’ve got Chris Farley as our handicappers. These guys have been rolling, rolling, and that is the reason why we’re excited about one more weekend to go and then the playoffs to go here. Boys, how we feeling? Brother Farley, how we feeling? Everything good as we flip the calendar into the New Year? Happy New Year, everybody that’s watching us. Happy New Year, guys. Chris, how you feeling?

Chris Farley:

Yeah, Happy New Year everybody. Obviously, just a very odd week in the NFL with everything that transpired on Monday. I know I don’t even feel comfortable betting on Bills and Bengals games this week just because you almost don’t want to leverage or even think about it that way, making profit off these players at that point, after what they experienced. So obviously, it just puts everything into perspective. I’m just very grateful to be here with you guys. Grateful to be able to talk NFL as part of my gigs and jobs, and thank God there’s still football. But prayers up and still thinking heavily about Damar Hamlin. But hey, some great news coming out about him, so that’s really awesome to hear.

T.J. Reeves:

I was just going to go there, that the latest update is he is improving. Still in critical but stable condition after the event that we all saw, the cardiac event that happened from the blow on the tackle in the Cincinnati game with Tee Higgins. So we’ve got a positive update, a positive outcome. And Scott Kellen, as I come to you, we’re all mindful of this. But it’s an inherently dangerous game as it is and we see serious injury all the time. It’s usually very rare, very extreme to see a life and death situation like this, but it is a reminder.

And as Chris points out, it’s a very difficult situation for the Bills, and them playing this week. As we do the live show, Scott, it is believed that the Bills-Patriots game will come off. Will it stay as a Sunday game? The NFL has not said that yet. There is precedent and potential it could be played on a Monday. Obviously, there’s a variable there with the Monday night college football playoff championship game, Georgia and TCU. But you could potentially, this is just T.J. speculating and saying this, you could potentially play it earlier on Monday. You could potentially, if you had to, play it Tuesday, and the NFL did that in the Covid crazy 2020 campaign, where they kept playing delayed games even in the middle of the following week and making it work.

So all we’re saying is, at the beginning of the show here, we don’t know about the time and the day on the Buffalo game yet. That answer may be coming later Thursday, might be coming Friday. In any event, Scott, I want you to say whatever you like to say. We are going to briefly talk about that game and some of the other games as well, that don’t have as much implication, we won’t talk as much about. But Scott, what are your thoughts here with all of that that Chris and I had to say on the Buffalo situation, Damar Hamlin, and whether or not psychologically, are they going to be focused enough to be able to play a game this weekend?

Scott Kellen:

Well, I think it’s tough. And logistically, all those things you laid out, that’s where it gets really difficult. And logistically is the least important part of this, obviously. And I think the Bills will dictate when this game gets played. If Buffalo wakes up and says, “Hey, we’re going Sunday,” it’s going Sunday. If they say, “There’s no way we can go,” I think the League’s going to respect that. And I do think all these positive things coming out with Damar Hamlin is really good.

Look, we’ve all faced different situations in our life where you get into a situation and you feel like you can’t do anything. You can’t make your next move until you get something resolved with whatever this issue is, however minor or big it is. And I think this is one of those things too. I heard someone say it yesterday and I never thought about it, but if they can get some positive news, which you’re obviously getting with Damar Hamlin, it could almost become a rally cry for this team as well.

T.J. Reeves:

Yes.

Scott Kellen:

And really use that. I think it was Boomer Esiason saying it yesterday, imagine holding up that Super Bowl trophy, if they got that far, and being able to put it into Damar Hamlin’s hands, and just the motivation that could come from that as well. So a lot of things could come from it. But having said all that, to your point, T.J., not only these two teams but other teams, they could be a little worried hitting players now and what can happen to them. It’s a rare occurrence, from what we think we know happened. They haven’t really said for sure. But that’s got to be on the minds of people as well.

Most importantly, it just looks like the kid is getting better, which is great. We’re so used to this, when you see someone laying there and maybe they have to take them off on a stretcher because their neck or something, but most of the time these guys are okay. But when they came back from the commercial and said CPR, that just took it to another level. And as I heard one other guy who was on the field at that game say, when they say CPR, they don’t give CPR because you’re breathing. And that’s a whole other element.

T.J. Reeves:

No doubt.

Scott Kellen:

So thoughts and prayers to him, and I think he’s getting better and hopefully this all comes out okay. But it’s very hard for those two teams. It’s hard to know where their interest and-

T.J. Reeves:

It’s a great point. Pardon me. It’s a great point you make, that the Cincinnati Bengals were experiencing this too. Their players were out on the field and they saw this as well. It’s a horrifying thing to be part of and psychologically to get past that, and the NFL has been offering some help. And a couple of other things. Damar Hamlin’s father, actually this is confirmed now, it came out this morning, he addressed the Bills via a Zoom call from Cincinnati and reassured them collectively that Damar is improving. Again, we need to mind be mindful, this is almost now hour by hour was. It’s now kind of segment of the day by segment of the day. He is still in critical condition in an ICU. So the improvement is good, but I think that reassurance helped as well.

And again, we’re spending a lot of time on this and we’re going to get to the handicapping in a few moments. But bear in mind what Scott just said last. This is not the biggest priority, but the Buffalo-New England game has bearing on the AFC playoff picture for the wild card. New England still has to win to make sure they’re in. The Miami Dolphins, the New York Jets, who are playing each other, each have to win and they have to hope that New England loses. The Pittsburgh Steelers, playing a separate game, has to win and has to hope that New England loses. So you’ve got other games that are related to this Buffalo-New England outcome, whenever it is. It’s a big, complicated, high level situation. But the most important thing is Hamlin doing better, for sure.

All right, so we got that out of the way. Again, thank you for finding us. Hit the Like button, make sure you’re subscribed. The audience has been great. Understand we’re going to spend more time on the games that mean something. And the guys will speak to this more. On the games that really don’t have any meaning, they’re very difficult to handicap. You’re not going to get the usual four or five minutes from all of these games when we don’t really know how long starters are playing, et cetera.

The guys have been saying that. I’m like, “Guys, you’re taken care of. It’s understood.” We don’t know how long Tom Brady’s playing for the Buccaneers. We don’t know if the New York Giants are going to try to play any of their guys and beat the Philadelphia Eagles. We don’t know how much anybody that doesn’t have a playoff position up for grabs is going to play any of their starters. We don’t know that. So we’ll do the best we can with the games that have no implication. It just might be a little less.

Scott Kellen:

Hey, T.J.

T.J. Reeves:

Go ahead.

Scott Kellen:

[inaudible 00:08:36] too. I don’t know if they did this last year, that’s why, and maybe Chris can remember, but in years past they have. Sometimes, if you’re waiting a bet a later game, once these early games kick off, the later games sometimes come off the board because there’s a cause and effect to that. So just be mindful of that. I feel like last year, the games stayed up but you might lose access to that game until after the early games are done, and then when they come back on the board, those lines could be drastically different. So just think through that too, based on whatever strategies you’re thinking through as well.

T.J. Reeves:

It’s a good point. And again, I’m not trying to monopolize here. The NFL’s done a good job of making sure, if there’s something on the line in the AFC, the NFC, that the teams are playing at the same time as best they can. The only difference is, unlike previous years, there is a Sunday night game. And so in that case, the Detroit Lions and the Green Bay Packers are playing. Seattle is playing earlier and if Seattle wins the 1:00 Pacific, 4:00 Eastern game, that eliminates Detroit. Detroit would know that, prior to the Sunday night game. The only thing they’re now doing is trying to screw up the Packers’ playoff hopes and beat them. But by and large, the teams are playing together at 1:00 Eastern time or at 4:00 Eastern time for game playoff implications that matter, for that very reason, Scott. So Chris, we monopolized all that. You got anything else before we want to go to the records and go to the games, or are you good? You ready to roll? Or what else you got, Chris?

Chris Farley:

Yeah, no, I’m ready to roll. Just a quick antidote though. My wife is a clinical psychologist and we talked about a few things that happened after this weekend. Just to expand on it all, not to belabor this point even more, but what the Bengals and Bills players experienced, that’s called a trauma experience, and different people experience trauma in different ways. That could last weeks, days. So we all just have to be mindful of that. As we see them play, it might be difficult. Hopefully they can use it as motivation. Everybody thinking of Damar Hamlin, for sure. But everybody handles trauma in different ways and that’s up there-

Scott Kellen:

Very well said.

Chris Farley:

… with what we’re used to seeing in a war, not in an NFL football game. So there will be effects to it, and hopefully they have the right mental health professionals to help them navigate that.

T.J. Reeves:

And again, as much as we want these teams to play, and we’re anxious for the betting angles, and we’re anxious for the fantasy football and all the different stuff. Because again, there are a lot of fantasy football leagues that their championship game wasn’t decided because the Bills players and the Bengals players weren’t done. Folks, all of that is just way down the priority list on if the players are psychologically ready to go or not. And that’s up to them, the Players Association, and then the League on when are they ready to go? And as Thursday becomes Friday and Friday becomes Saturday, let’s hope that all of that is better, but it’s understandable.

I would totally understand… And we’re getting moving in just a second. I would totally understand if there’s some players who are going to opt not to play this weekend, and we should not belittle them or make fun of them. If they’re concerned about, “I could go out there and I could do this to myself and it’s bothering me, it’s bothering me in my head, and I could get seriously injured some other way because that’s what I’m thinking about,” then don’t play. I am fine with that and we should not ridicule anybody that’s thinking that way for this final weekend. Let’s just see. Let’s just see how prevalent all of that is.

All right, with all that out of the way, well done guys, on that. Here are the records on the show so far, in the shows that we’ve had to this point in the season. Take a look at the show overall. 92 and 69, the two guys that you’re hearing from above 500. Look at Scott, well above 500. Chris, well above 500 or above 500 as well. So you’ve done well. You’ve made money if you’ve been listening to us, and now we got one weekend to go and we got plenty of live and official plays. And again, a lot of you are in the live chat right now, rocking along with us. Hit that Like button. Make sure that you get some questions and comments. You’ll see those flashing below the screen. And let’s get into it, guys.

Right away, a Saturday game that does have playoff implications for the Kansas City Chiefs, battling for the number one seed. They’ve already locked up the division. They take on the Las Vegas Raiders who realize they are out. The only thing they can do is mess up Kansas City’s playoff seeding and open the door for Buffalo, in specific, to maybe be the number one seed. The Chiefs are 9.5 road favorites, the total is 52.5, and let’s get things underway with the official plays. Both handicappers are going to be on this. Scott Kellen, get us underway. What is an official play on this Saturday afternoon game?

Scott Kellen:

Yeah, T.J. We’re going to go over the 52.5. I would play this up to 53. Obviously, we’ve got a perfect environment, being in a dome stadium. Couple things. The Chiefs have now played here twice since the stadium was created, and those scores against the Raiders have been 35-31, 41-14, and I think the two games in Kansas City, including the one this year, have gone over 30-29 in Kansas City. But in this stadium, they’ve scored 66 and 55 points in those two games.

We mentioned this last week because I was on the over in the Raider game as a home dog. Since moving to this stadium in Las Vegas for the Raiders, they are now 17-6 and one to the over, it’s 24 games, including 10 and two to the over as a home dog. They have now scored at least 24 points in 11 of those 12 games as a home dog. So they are deemed to be the inferior team at home. And somehow, some way, even with Jarrett Stidham at quarterback against a ferocious 49er team last week, this team still finds ways to score games. And we’ve talked about this a couple times this year. Mahomes, his average, 33 points when playing in dome games. His last two games, 30 to 24 against Houston, and I’m going to miss the other game. Oh, against the Chargers, 30 to 27. That was just this year.

So in perfect environments, Mahomes scores points, Kansas City scores points. And the Raiders haven’t actually played a lot of good offenses this year, but when they have, they’ve allowed 30 to Kansas City, 27 to Jacksonville, 34 to Seattle, 37 to San Francisco. Kansas City should get to 30-plus points in this game, and we already demonstrated the fact that the Raiders are scoring 24 or more when they’re home dog.

And the last point on this, Kansas City’s now allowed 24 or more points in five of their last seven games. Two of the games they didn’t were against the Rams, who obviously are very anemic right now on offense, and then Seattle. That was back in Kansas City, and Seattle was playing without Tyler Lockett. So the Chiefs are probably likely give up a fair amount of points. We know Kansas City does what they do. Remember, the Raiders put a whole bunch of defensive guys into IR last week. Yes, it’s a high total but according to my numbers, we still have value to the over. I would play it at 53 or less.

T.J. Reeves:

All right, so he is interested in the overplay. Chris Farley, to you for an official play as well on the first game of the slate. It’s Saturday afternoon, Kansas City and the Raiders, please.

Chris Farley:

Yeah, this is going to be the first leg of my teaser of the week. Just a quick note, last week I feel like our teaser would’ve won. Last leg was Bengals plus 7.5 and they certainly looked like they’re ready to go there in Cincinnati. So that’s avoided, bam, we’ll go for it again this week. Six out of the last seven weeks, we’ve won.

Going to tease the Chiefs down seven points, which you got to lay a little more juice on that, probably around minus 140 at most sports books. So that’s not ideal, but got to get it under the three. The Raiders were very competitive last week. That was pretty shocking, to see Jarrett Stidham throw all over the 49ers. I mean, when does that happen? But the Chiefs, this is the time of year too. We’ve seen the Chiefs kind of stumble recently, not really put teams away. This is a spot where they can secure the number one seed, most likely. We’ll see what happens in the Bengals-Bills situation. But that that’s probably going to be the most likely scenario, especially if that game resulted in a tie.

And remember, this is a Kansas City team who, when they had the number one seed at Arrowhead, 2019, 2020, they went to the Super Bowl both of those years. Really, really tough place to play. They’re going to be super motivated to put the Raiders away in this game. I do like Scott’s overplay. This seems like it. The Chiefs’ defense is not very good and they’re going to have to make some improvements in the postseason, hopefully get more pressure on the quarterback. Chris Jones is one of the most unheralded defensive lineman in the NFL. He is unbelievable and he’s really making a lot of plays week to week, but that’s about all they get consistently on their defense. So I think there’s a lot of points in this one, but the Chiefs will separate because of the motivational factors. So I’m going to tease down the Chiefs to minus 2.5.

T.J. Reeves:

All right, very good. He’ll follow that up with the second half of the tease later on. It is interesting, we saw that one comment there off the 3 Dog Thursday handle, which Chris, you’ve been a part of that show. We haven’t baptized Scott Kellen into 3 Dog Thursday, but there’s a lot of banter back and forth about the Chiefs as being a bigger favorite, a seven point or more favorite. Are you ready for the number? They’re two and six right now, including last week’s non cover in the win over Denver. They won it but they did not cover the large number. Two and six ATS in games where there are seven or more point favorites this season. They are 9.5 on this. Go ahead, Scott.

Scott Kellen:

Sorry to interrupt you. Let me just throw… We’ve thrown this out a few different weeks. Mahomes now, 10 and 14 against the spread, is a road favorite of more than three points. So he’s not good, and that includes being 4, 11, and 1 in the last 16 games.

T.J. Reeves:

Wow.

Scott Kellen:

And by the way, he’s 12 and 4 to the over in those games so it reiterate, the high scoring games when they’re favorite, deemed to be the superior team. But when he is a road favorite of three or less, he’s four and two against the spread. Kind of plays into Chris’s teaser, getting that down to 2.5 as well. And if this number would come down to 8.5 or less so we could get it at 2.5 at the six point teaser price, I will definitely be on that as well.

T.J. Reeves:

Interesting. All right, let’s lock the guys in on what they have. Scott Kellen believes in points, points, points in this matchup, Chiefs and Raiders. And meantime, it’s the first part of a teaser leg. And Chris Farley adheres to how Mahomes and company have struggled as a seven point or more favorite and he says, tease that thing down to 2.5. He’ll pair it with another game later in the show.

All right, Saturday night. Very intriguing. Winner take all. Winner is in the playoffs as the AFC South champ. The loser’s all the way out. Titans-Jaguars. Jacksonville favored by six. That line has come down a little bit here, midweek, thus far. Total is 40. Again for Jacksonville, they have won impressively the last couple of weeks. The Titans taking on water. They’re at third string quarterback, Joshua Dobbs, who will start again in this game. And once again, we’re going to have both handicappers make an official play on this. So Chris Farley, begin it. The winner is the AFC South champ and gets to host a playoff gig. What a story for Jacksonville, if it’s them. And if it’s Tennessee, they get it done with a third string, Joshua Dobbs. What is your official play, Chris Farley?

Chris Farley:

Yeah, I hope Jacksonville wins this game, for sure, because it’s a great story, especially after their year with Urban Meyer last season. That’s the closest thing to just a throwaway season that I’ve ever seen in the NFL. But this is a Titans team who, when they’re in this kind of situation as an underdog against an AFC South opponent, Mike Vrabel just checks out as he’s one of these guys who… He’s nobody’s fool. He rested a lot of players last week for a reason. He started Josh Dobbs for a reason. He looked pretty darn good, at least a lot more formidable than Willis at this point. Excuse me. I forgot that guy’s name because he hasn’t done much.

But Derrick Henry comes back this week, obviously. And I think the biggest concern for the Titans is in the trenches. Denico Autry is going to play in this game. He’s not on the injury report. Jeffery Simmons is practicing in limited fashion. If they can get to the quarterback in this game and get some pressure on Trevor Lawrence, they can really hang in this game. But their offensive line hasn’t been quite as good this year, that’s for sure. Not in pass protection and not in the run game as much either. So this is going to be just one of these battle in the trenches in the AFC South.

But I just trust Mike Vrabel and a really well coached team who we’ve seen their defense play very aggressively before. This is a Jaguars team who as well as Trevor Lawrence has played. In the second half of the year, he’s one of the best or the highest rated quarterbacks in the NFL. He’s played great. But they haven’t been in this situation before. It requires experience sometimes, to handle this type of pressure. And for all the players in their defense and offense, I just think Vrabel will have his players ready. I think the Jaguars will win, but I like the Titans to cover and to keep this one feisty. So I’m going with the Josh Dobbs led Titans, plus six on the road. Remember, this is a revenge game too from a few weeks back. So means a lot to both teams, obviously. Should be a close game.

T.J. Reeves:

Scott Kellen, whether it is Josh Dobbs, whether it’s Malik Willis… We know it won’t be Ryan Tannehill. He is out for the remainder of the year, including the postseason. They did announce that. Injured reserve because of the ankle injury. So if they do make it, it’s going to be either Dobbs or Willis in a playoff game. Whether it’s them, whether it’s you, whether it’s one of my 14-year-old twin daughters, we could all turn around and hand the ball to Derrick Henry and we suspect that there will be a lot of that in this game. Your thoughts and an official play, please, Scott?

Scott Kellen:

Yeah, I think there will be. He had a pretty good game against them last game. A lot of turnovers. They lost that game, whatever it was, 36-22 I think. But there was like four turnovers. I think he had a key fumble in that game. I’m going to play Jacksonville on the money line. It’s going to be a two-team money line parlay. We’ll have the second team coming up shortly.

And I will say this as well. The money line should be about 260 to 265. That’s a little bit better than doing a six-point teaser, by the way. Just the money line equates to about a minus 110 for both these teams, versus you might be laying a 120 or something in that neighborhood on a six-point teaser. So you have the options, I’d do the money line parlay. Having said all that, this is not a positive EV play. I’m just going to say that right now. But I do believe there are some reasons here where I think Jacksonville and the next team that we’re going to take have a pretty strong chance of winning this game outright. So two-team money line parlay on Jacksonville. So Chris, we can both win this, which would be great.

But Chris alluded to it. 36-22, Jacksonville wins, a few weeks ago. They did have Ryan Tannehill in that game. They do not have Ryan Tannehill, obviously, in this game. They did not have Denico Autry. They did not have a lot of guys, especially on the defensive side. Kristian Fulton, one of their cornerbacks. David Long, I don’t believe played in that game. I think he’s going to play in this game, one of their linebackers. Their linebackers have been decimated.

Now, what they aren’t going to have in this game that they did have last game, Chris alluded to it as well. Ben Jones, the center, gone. Nate Davis, the guard, gone. The right tackle gone. So they are decimated on the offensive line and Jacksonville could beat them up a little bit. But Vrabel likes to just muck things up, which is just a style that Tennessee plays. And I do have enough value with my numbers to play Jacksonville minus the six, but I feel much more comfortable trying to do this on the money line, just because of the nature and the style that Tennessee plays.

But where I get pretty comfortable with Jacksonville being able to win this game. The games that Ryan Tannehill’s not played this year, Jacksonville has scored 17, 17, 14 and 13, and they’ve had Derrick Henry, I believe, in the majority of those games. So I just don’t see them scoring a ton of points in this game. The flip side of it is, Tennessee’s defense, which will be healthier, they’ve played a lot of bottom 10 offenses this year and when they played a top 10 offense, and Jacksonville right now is number nine in my metrics, they have given up 20 or more points in all six of those games. Again, 36 a few weeks ago to Jacksonville. Some turnovers helped that out as well.

So I don’t see Tennessee getting past 17 points in this game. I think Jacksonville can get to 20. I don’t know if this is good or bad because NFL is contrary and things don’t keep going like this, but Jacksonville just came off playing two bottom tier quarterbacks in Zach Wilson and then last week where they played Davis Mills. They allowed three points in both those games. To me, Joshua Dobbs is not much different than that. He has about a 4.5 yards per pass, career number. He was 5.4 yards a pass last week. I do agree with Chris, he looked okay last week. I just don’t know if Tennessee can outscore him. But again, the style that Tennessee plays makes me a little bit more comfortable to do this on a money line than lay the six points.

T.J. Reeves:

All right. And again, that will be part of a tease for Scott and in Chris’s case here, we’re going to lock him in as well. He likes the side with the Titans. By the way, Brother Farley, I’m with you on 3 Dog Thursday purposes. For those purposes, we got the Titans at seven. The key numbers that you guys always talk about. Was seven earlier in the week. It’s come down a little bit. Just to keep it close, Derrick Henry did have a 100 yard rushing game, as Scott mentioned in the previous matchup, but he also fumbled at home, as Scott said. Trevor Lawrence had 360 yards passing in the previous game, for whatever it’s worth.

All right, so there’s what the handicappers are officially on, and that’s going to lead us to Sunday. So those are the Saturday games. That’s going to lead us to the Rams and the Seahawks. As we talked about, playoff implications for the Seahawks. If they win, they are still alive in the NFC wild card picture. They need a Green Bay loss on Sunday night football. So there is something on the line here. Seahawks lay six against the Rams. The total, 41.5. Scott Kellen, I’m going to quickly come back to you because this pays off immediately, correct? The two-team money line tease that you have, which way are you going?

Scott Kellen:

We’re going to complete this, T.J., with Seattle money line parlay on this one as well. Again, six points, you can tease it. It’s a little bit better number for you if you do the money line parlay. Should be about a minus 260 money line for this game as well. So why do I like it? First of all, we’ve mentioned this. In games that Stafford has missed this year, Rams have scored 17, 10. 23 against Seattle a few weeks ago. 17, 12, 51 and 10 points. That’s a median of about 17 points. This game, for me, really sets up as a bigtime home-road dichotomy for both of these teams. The Rams’ four highest scoring games without Stafford have all come at home and the games that they’ve played on the road, I don’t see it here, I think they’ve scored 10 and 12 points.

So they’re not scoring points on the road. And when we look at it from a red zone touchdown scoring percentage, the Rams are 71 percent at home, scoring in the red zone touchdowns. On the road, they’re 29 percent. They’re just not getting it done on the road, scoring. Now, you can say Seattle’s defense isn’t great and that, I think, is very, very true. But I mentioned this last week, Seattle has their own home-road dichotomy here. On the road, Seattle is giving up 80 percent touchdowns in the red zone, where at home, they’re only giving up 42 percent. They showed that again last week against the Jets. And when the Seahawks at home have played these bottom tier offenses, which they’re going to face with the Rams here as well, they have allowed… I got it somewhere here. 16 against Denver, 9 against Arizona, 13 against the Giants, 6 against the Jets last week. They’re probably not giving up a lot of points in this game against this offense.

And the Rams have been running the ball better, so I’ll give them that. Cam Akers has looked pretty good. But the other part of this for the Rams now, because they are just so decimated on both sides of the ball, they’ve now allowed 24 or more points in six of their last eight games, and the four road games without Stafford they’ve lost by 21, 12, 16 and 7 against New Orleans where Stafford left that game. They’re just not as competitive on the road, and Seattle at home against teams with five wins or less, which is the Rams here, they’re four and 0 straight up in these games. So I’m, again, kind of like Jacksonville, not super comfortable laying to six points. I don’t have enough value to do that. But I feel pretty good about the Seahawks being able to win this game straight up.

T.J. Reeves:

All right. You see a lot of comments from the viewers, the peeps, the savages that like the Rams in this instance. And by the way, Chris Farley, I believe you agree with some of that sentiment. Again, this is a late game at 4:25 Eastern, 1:25 Seattle time. Thought on the Rams and an upset, or at least a possibility of keeping it close for an official play, Chris?

Chris Farley:

Yeah, absolutely. I wish this was at seven. This line actually just moved down. It was at seven earlier this morning. But I am going to take the Rams at plus si. And if we remember, this was a very close game. In fact, the Rams were in the lead in most of that game against the Seahawks a few weeks back, and really, Geno Smith creating some magic again at the end of that game.

Scott Kellen:

Last minute, right?

Chris Farley:

Yeah, I had Seattle as a survivor team that week so I was happy about it. But really, it felt like they got fortunate to win that game. And with Baker Mayfield back at quarterback, they’ve been competitive on offense. It’s Baker Mayfield, so we can’t expect them to catapult the Rams every single week. But stats and analysis and matchup stuff aside, to me, this is Sean McVay’s last statement after a Super Bowl season last year. This is the Super Bowl champion that is about to be done with their season. They can knock off a familiar foe in the Seattle Seahawks. I know they have to go on the road, and Scott is exactly right, they have not been a good road team. But I just think, motivationally, Sean McVay is going to light up his players a little bit. They’re going to play really hard out there.

And let’s not forget, the Seattle Seahawks, in the month of December, pretty much in its entirety, they just weren’t a good team. They couldn’t move the ball on offense. They couldn’t stop anybody on defense. If the Rams come and attack in this game, I think they can punch Seattle in the mouth and just really keep this competitive throughout the whole contest. Last week, kudos to Seattle because I was on the Jets in that game. I just don’t think the Jets were ready for it. Really efficient attacks from the Seahawks. Scored on the first three possessions last week, and that kind of felt like the end of the game. The Jets couldn’t catch up. This week, I think the Rams are going to be very feisty right from the very start.

And just a final point here, Seahawks’ running back, Kenneth Walker III, 64 yards away from a 1000-yard rookie season. You’re going to see people talk a lot about stuff like that this week on Twitter. Player props, player incentives. I would be careful with those props in games like this, because player incentives are still very ancillary compared to the greater mission. The Seahawks need to win. They want to get into the playoffs. They’re not going to necessarily force-feed players just for their stats and incentives in big games like this. Plus the prop market is going to be really inflated because of that. Anyway, I will take the Rams plus six. I think it’s going to be a very competitive NFC West game.

Scott Kellen:

Hey, Chris, I’ll just add one other point to support what you say. Bobby Wagner spoiling Seahawks’ playoff hopes, something worth playing for. There’s another [inaudible 00:32:29] as well.

Chris Farley:

Well, sure.

T.J. Reeves:

And they want to go out on a winning note. They’ve had an awful season. They’ve had the worst season of any defending Super Bowl champion. It’s 5 and 11 at this point. It could be a sixth win. What will happen in this game? Chris Farley likes them and the points, the LA Rams. Meantime, Scott Kellen likes the money line play for Seattle. He pays that off as the second part of his two-team tease that he just gave you that also included the Jacksonville Jaguars, if I have that correct. Jacksonville on the money line, Seattle on the money line pays it off there for Chris. So good luck in that late game, late Sunday afternoon.

Okay, to the peeps, thank you for finding us, savages. Again, we’re live at 1:00 Eastern time. We will be here next week, prior to the wild card weekend of the NFL playoffs. And let’s disclaim. We believe it will be the wild card weekend. There is a variable, that the NFL could decide that that Buffalo game with Cincinnati matters so much that they are going to make it up, if the teams are able and willing, and that because of playoff seating, they might need to make it up, particularly if Buffalo’s going to potentially be the number one seed and get a by week or not. So there’s a possibility, we don’t know this, but there is a possibility that the first wild card weekend may not be next weekend. Just keep that in mind. A lot of things in motion. Maybe it plays out this weekend where that Buffalo-Cincinnati outcome doesn’t matter and so then the game would not need to be made up, and then you march on. In any event, we will be here at 1:00 Eastern time next Thursday, all the way through the NFL postseason. Stand by for that.

One more disclaimer. We’re about to go through two or three games here, two of them at least, where we don’t know what the status of the game is or some of the players in the game. You’re not going to get as much in terms of that and you’re not going to get a handicapped official play. Again, we’ll still talk about all the games, but some of these are about to be quicker. Just be ready for that. And one of those is this Giants game with Philadelphia. That’s next. Eagles still very much want the one seed. They’ve got to win and make sure that they don’t lose and Dallas wins, or Philadelphia’s playing on the wild card weekend, which is pretty incredible that they will have blown it after being 13 and 1 with just three games to go, and having a three-game advantage. If they don’t win and Dallas does win, and we’ll talk about the Cowboys later on.

All right, so the Eagles have big incentive. The Giants can’t help their playoff position, so they don’t have incentive. Will they play any starters? It doesn’t look like they will. We saw the line is 14, and the total in this one as well is 43. So there’s not an official play. Chris Farley, to you real quick. I know you don’t have a play. You probably don’t even have a very good feel. We don’t know who’s playing for the Giants here on this. Quick thought.

Chris Farley:

Very quick thought is there’s just a vastly different approach, probably, for both teams in this because of the motivational angle. All the Eagles need to do is win and they are the number one seed in the NFC. That’s a pretty big motivation. You have home field advantage there in Philly. Really tough place to play. Whereas the Giants are not going to move. They’re going to sit there right in that number six seed. So it becomes really hard to handicap for a few reasons. Obviously, they deserve to be 14-point favorites. They blew out the Giants a few weeks ago. They are the vastly better team, absolutely, on paper.

But even if the Eagles pull ahead early in this game, they could sit starters in the second half. Score could be 21-nothing, 24-nothing, 24-3, and the Eagles decide to remove some players or just play a little more conservatively because they have the game at hand. There’s really no reason why Daboll would want to play all the starters. I don’t believe so. They could also see this Eagles team in the second round of the playoffs if they win in the wild card round and then… You don’t want to show them any of your schemes or any of your tricks. So really tough game to bet. I would just avoid it all together.

T.J. Reeves:

Scott Kellen, along those same lines, we see this all the time with teams that don’t have anything to play for, maybe messing it up for somebody that does. Interesting in the famous Patriots undefeated season of 2007 that they completed, they played the Giants in the final game and the Giants could not help themselves by winning the game in the wild card picture. They had already qualified as a wild card team. But they played hard, trying to stop New England from being undefeated. And Chris Farley, I know you’re a Giants fan. I see you nodding. And Tom Coughlin was adamant back in that day, “I’m going to play my guys and we’re going to try to beat them even though we can’t help ourselves.” Real quick, Chris.

Chris Farley:

Yeah. T.J., if I could just say, I mean that’s a great memory for me because I watched that game and I said, “If the Giants have a chance to see the Patriots again, that is going to be a very…” Because they played them so hard. Those are great memories, T.J. I appreciate that.

T.J. Reeves:

Yeah, and they eventually did see them again. But Coughlin’s point that week was, “We’re doing everything from an integrity standpoint to try to stop the Patriots from having an unbeaten season,” and he played all of his guys, the whole game. And it was a wild game that New England pulled out in the fourth quarter and won. All right, so Scott Kellen, a thought here. It’s not a similar situation with somebody going for history, but Philadelphia is going for the one seed and New York could mess that up for them, potentially. All right, you have no handicap. Quickly, just give me a thought with all those variables.

Scott Kellen:

And just one thought on that 2007 game too. Some people will tell you, and Chris will probably agree, that that really catapulted the Giants, really, to have the confidence to go do what they did in the playoffs as well. So it played another role there as well.

So look, I’ll make this quick. If all things were equal, it’s a normal game, I got Philly favored by about 12.5. A little bit of value to the over, again, if the Giants were playing everybody. We don’t know that they will. That’s an obstacle. And Jalen Hurts is banged up, so at what point do they want to just get him out of the game as well? Now again, Minshew could be very serviceable against a bunch of backup guys with the Giants as well. So that could play into it.

I’ll just throw one thing out there. If Hurts plays, he is now as a home favorite, nine and one straight up as a home favorite. Eight, one and one against the spread. Every win by seven or more points, an average of 13 points plays into where the line is. Nine and one of the over in those games, having scored 21 or more points in each of those games. So some of that as well. But it’s just too difficult because we just don’t know what we’re getting from the Giants. So for me, it’s a stay away.

T.J. Reeves:

All right. And again, how much does Hurts play? Does he play? Don’t know. How much does any starter play for the Giants? We don’t know. Tough to handicap for those reasons.

All right, let’s move on. The other New York team is the Jets. They take on the Miami Dolphins. The Jets have been floundering but they’re still barely alive with playoff hopes. Meantime, for the Miami Dolphins, they have plummeted now, losing five straight. But again, they would be alive if they win at Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday. So this is an early, 1:00 Eastern time game, and Miami is currently a one-point underdog at home. The total is 38.5. Again, neither one of you have an official play. We can go a little bit more on this one because both teams have something at stake. Scott Kellen, I’m right back to you. Just give me a quick thought or two here, even if you’re not making an official play.

Scott Kellen:

Yeah, I’ve got a pretty good situation on the Jets but I’m showing a little value on Miami. Throw in all of that. There’s still a lot of question marks from a Miami side on who’s playing. Bradley Chubb. You can go down the list here. Armstead, the left tackle. First of all, with value one way, situation the other way, for me it’s a no play. But it’s also kind of hard to handicap because I don’t know who’s playing for Miami. Skylar Thompson did play in that game in New York. He came in after one play, I think, when Bridgewater got hurt. They lost that game 40 to 17. He’s probably a little bit better prepared now, but he only averaged 4.4 yards a pass. In Miami, being a home dog here, you could almost think about teasing him up. But I just don’t like doing that because I don’t know what we’re getting from Skylar Thompson against a really good Jet defense. Mike White looks like he’s going to start, so that’s a positive for the Jets. It’s no play for me. Stay away game for me.

T.J. Reeves:

Chris Farley, again, the winner is still alive here and it’s injury situation again at quarterback for Miami. Mike White was erratic at times in Seattle. He’s also been hurt. So again, tough one to handicap. I know you don’t have an official play. Quick thought or two? I’m not sure if we’re able to hear you on mute there, Chris. Go ahead, buddy.

Chris Farley:

Oh, sorry. I had myself muted. I sure did.

T.J. Reeves:

That’s okay. Go ahead.

Chris Farley:

I think the Jets should be favorite in this game. But here’s the thing. Skylar Thompson just doesn’t really look like he’s ready to be a pro quarterback just yet. A lot of these rookies, they come in, especially a quarterback, it’s maybe the toughest position in all of sports, and he’s going up against a Jets defense that they have been exceptional this year and they played very poorly last week. So if the Jets want to end this season, which was a really good season where they could have made the playoffs, up until last week. Maybe for some pride, it’s obviously another divisional game. Every game’s a divisional game this week, which is awesome.

I think the Jets are going to be really, really tough to put away in this game. And how are you going to put away the Jets with Skylar Thompson in quarterback? He just hasn’t looked like he can really extend plays or create the same explosion that we’ve seen, obviously, when Tua was on the field. And even when Bridgewater’s on the field, he can make things happen. He’s an experienced veteran. So the most important player in football is the quarterback, and I hate that situation for the Dolphins. Even though they are at home, there’s going to be a little bit of heat. Maybe it gets a little hot for the Jets on that sideline. But I don’t know, I either stay away from this one or I’m betting on the Jets.

T.J. Reeves:

Okay. Again, Tua Tagovailoa not seen at the Thursday practice for Miami. Reportedly still being evaluated for the concussion-like symptoms after the Christmas Day Green Bay game. So it looks like it’s Skylar Thompson. Because again, Teddy Bridgewater has a broken finger, can’t play. So what’s going to happen in this matchup in Miami? Again, the winner is still alive, and that also relates to the next game that we’re about to talk about here. But the winner can still stay alive in the AFC wild card picture for Jets and Dolphins.

Next on the BetUS NFL show for a Thursday is the Buffalo-New England game. Again, couple of caveats. You see a line, a BetUS line of seven. You see 42.5 is the total. We don’t know, because the NFL has not said on Thursday. Is this game definitely happening? Is it definitely happening on Sunday, or might the Bills get some more time because of the shocking, awful situation that they endured watching their teammate, Damar Hamlin, having to be resuscitated on the field in Cincinnati on Monday? We don’t know any of those variables. So again, the handicappers are staying away.

Guys, again, I think it’s a minute chance, but we don’t know for sure that this game does get played. I believe it will eventually get played, just like I theorized earlier. I’ll get your thoughts. They could still play it Monday afternoon if they had to. They could still play it on Tuesday if they had to, if Buffalo needs more time. But it becomes a very difficult handicap. Chris Farley, I’m right back to you on when are they playing it? Would there be some opt-outs from some of the Bills who psychologically, again, say, “I am not ready to go and play a game?” We don’t know these things and it makes it very difficult to handicap, Chris.

Chris Farley:

Well, first of all, teams like the Dolphins and the Steelers, they need the Bills to win this game. So it does have big playoff implications if it is played. But yeah, you can’t handicap this game, principally because, like we saw in very visceral fashion on Monday, these are human beings who are going to be very affected by what they saw. We’ve seen so much positive from what happened on Monday Night Football. Hopefully, that is a positive result. It is a motivational thing that they can carry with them into the postseason. But Patriots, they play the Buffalo Bills close. The last game, 24 to 10, but it felt closer than that. They [inaudible 00:44:42] kind of hanging around. Both defenses really showed out in that game. It limited Buffalo’s offense more than you see a lot of teams capable of. But now, Buffalo is at home and they get to go back home after experiencing all this stuff.

This is just really hard. It’s really hard because I could see the Bills using everything that happened as pure motivation and they could wall up the Patriots, who are still an offense that feels fortunate to get over 20 points, week to week. They need a defensive touchdown, and they’ve got a lot of them this year. They got another one last week. I think they have six on the year or something like that. But this is going to be a Buffalo team who’s just very vulnerable. So no play for me, obviously. I just don’t want to bet this game because of the circumstances.

T.J. Reeves:

Scott Kellen, we come to you here again. The AFC playoff picture also has the Bills trying to see if they can be a number one seed. Again, Kansas City will have some say-so on that on Saturday. If they win, then it really calls into question, is Buffalo going to have to play twice to be able to get the number one seed? That includes making up the Cincinnati game. If they lose, that would be interesting if the Chiefs lose, because then a Buffalo win in this game that we think is going to happen but we’re not sure, would secure the number one seed at that point in a tiebreaker. So all those variables are on the table. Again, very difficult to handicap. Just give me a quick thought or two if you don’t have a play here.

Scott Kellen:

Just looking at a headline here, “Bills will practice Thursday and McDermott and players will address the media.” That’s a good step forward, I think, if they’re willing to do that. So maybe that leads a clue to possibly playing on Sunday. I’ve got a little bit of value on Buffalo in this game, if everything was good mindset wise and all that. But as we’ve spoke, it’s just really hard to know. So it’s a stay away game.

I’m just not a big fan of New England. I don’t like what they’ve done offensively. Like Chris said, it’s just a struggle for them. I don’t know over this for a fact without looking it up, but I feel like most of those defensive touchdowns have come against really anemic offenses. So kudos to them. Take advantage of Indianapolis playing whoever, and all that kind of stuff. The defense is good, clearly. But they’ve got a lot of injuries there too. Looks like DeVante Parker finally practiced last week. He’s been in the concussion protocol for a few weeks here. And they’ve got some injuries in the secondary that have to get meshed out as well. But a little value to Buffalo, but I can’t play it because I just don’t know their mindset.

T.J. Reeves:

All right. Again, the AFC playoff picture, it does have bearing here and that’s why the Dolphins and Jets are playing at the same time, because both of those teams need a New England loss. Pittsburgh, who we’re about to talk, about also needs a New England loss in this game. So Buffalo can have a say-so in who the wild card is if they beat New England, and then there will be outcomes of those other games, Miami-Jets and Pittsburgh-Cleveland coming up.

All right, we continue on the BetUS NFL show. If you’re just jumping aboard and finding us, we’re here live at 1:00 Eastern Time on Thursdays. Thank you for finding us. Hit the Like button. Make sure you’re subscribed here on BetUS and the BetUS NFL show. Scott and Chris have done a phenomenal job. We’re well above 500, over 20 games above 500 at the end of the season. That’s fantastic.

All right, let’s move on to a game that will have a couple of handicapped plays. That’s Cleveland and Pittsburgh. This one is a rematch in the Steel City. Big win for the Steelers to keep their wild card hopes alive. How about Mike Tomlin’s team, five and one down the stretch of the season, to get themselves here to the precipice of maybe a playoff spot at eight and eight. Steelers hosting the Browns, Steelers laying 2.5. Total is 40. Chris Farley, I’m going to come to you for an official play. What do we like in this one? Again, the Steelers need a win and they need other help. Thoughts here in a play.

Chris Farley:

I am going to play on the Pittsburgh Steelers again, minus 2.5 in this game. I just love what I’m seeing from the Pittsburgh Steelers and in so many different ways. We’ve talked about their defense at length in this show, what T.J. Watt offers, or their defense as a whole. They’re healthier, they’re playing well. But what we’re seeing from their offense in particular, offensive line has really come together. Najee Harris ran, or they ran for over 180 yards last week on a good Ravens defense, a Ravens run defense that’s been pretty exceptional, actually, the second half of the year. So that just goes to show the growth of that Pittsburgh offensive line.

And Kenny Pickett, it might not always show it in the stats, although they did go 10 for 16, a third down in conversions last week, which I think was the most significant part of them winning that game. But watching him throw those passes on third and 12, third and 15, tight windows, has a lot of poise in those situations. I think he’s going to be a pretty good quarterback in this league for a long time. That last throw that he made in the game against the Ravens last week was a really tight window to Najee Harris. A lot of quarterbacks don’t even have the moxie to even throw that pass because it takes such precision. So I’m really high on the guy. I’m high on the Steelers right now and the momentum that they have. They have a lot to play for, obviously. Still hoping to get into the playoffs. But even if they don’t get into the playoffs, they have a lot to play for, for Mike Tomlin, for a coach who can handle young players like this, motivate them and will them to still have a successful season.

The Browns played better last week. You got to give them credit for what they did against the Commanders, but that was a lot of Carson Wentz. Carson Wentz just loves, apparently, lofting up 50-yard balls into triple coverage. That guy might never be a starting quarterback in the NFL again. Just some terrible throws by him, putting the Browns in good position last week. Deshaun Watson looked better in the second half, but it’s not something I trust. And you can certainly run on the Cleveland Browns defense. I think if the Steelers can establish their run game here, they can stay in control of this game. In the last two weeks, we saw them come back and will their wins at the end of the game anyway. So I’m going with the Steelers under a field goal, minus 2.5.

T.J. Reeves:

All right, again, Kenny Bleeping Pickett, as Mike Tomlin was calling him on the sideline there the other night, with the win in the game in Baltimore that keeps their playoff hopes alive. Again, maybe not the greatest stats and numbers, Scott, but certainly spectacular enough. Bigtime throw there when they had to have it for the touchdown, as Chris was making reference to. All right, you’re handicapping this one as well. An official play on Cleveland and Pittsburgh. Cleveland’s only motivation is to mess it up for Pittsburgh. They’re out of the playoffs. But they can end Pittsburgh’s season and hand Mike Tomlin an eight and nine losing season if they win. Scott Kellen, what’s the official play from you?

Scott Kellen:

Yeah, I’m going to tease Cleveland up. So, hey Chris, we got another one here where we can both win. So this would be great if… I think that’s three now where we can both win, and we’re on opposite sides, which is great if we can pull that off. And I think it was Myles Garrett or someone in Cleveland said, “There’s nothing we’d rather do than just to ruin Pittsburgh’s season.” And Cleveland also has just this whole Deshaun Watson thing. They just need time to play together. So I think they are going to use this game from that perspective as well.

Two injury concerns here. Right tackle, Jack Conklin. Cornerback, Denzel Ward, who had at least one of those interceptions last week. They may not play in this game. My numbers actually support Cleveland in this game, but I feel much better doing this on a teaser. We used Cleveland last week as well. We’re getting through the three and the seven. And this game and the next game you can see, that we’re going to talk about, which is another 2.5-point line, these teasers with totals of 42 or less, and we’ll just use the number 2.5. Guys, they were 16 and 1 this year. So teasing a low number up through the three, up through the seven. And if you go all the way back to 2015 and beyond, where the scoring changed a little bit, prior to this year, they were 13 and 3. 29 and 4 now. This is like, you don’t even have to know who the quarterback is of these teams. You see a 2.5 point spread for the road dog and a total of 42 or lower, you could just make that automatic, right? So just [inaudible 00:53:08]-

T.J. Reeves:

And clarify again, that’s playing what for that number?

Scott Kellen:

A 2.5 point dog. Anything could be less where you can tease it up over seven. You want to tease through the three and the seven. But specifically to this line, which is 2.5, we’re now getting it up to 8.5 and a total of 42 or lower. Obviously, the lower the total, the less variance here. You’re more inclined to have a 17-10 game, something like that. So those are 16 and 1, and you need to hit about 74 percent if you’re laying about a $1.20 on these six-point teasers. So 16 and 1 this year, 13 and 3 going into this year. There’s a lot more volume this year because the totals have just been down much lower than they have in past years, but that’s 29 and 4 since 2015. That can just become an automatic part of your handicapping every week, if you want to use it. I’m not on the next game as a teaser, Houston, but that’s the one that would line up perfect with this if you are so inclined to do so.

T.J. Reeves:

Wow.

Scott Kellen:

So on the handicap of this game though, first of all, just from a total standpoint, Cleveland has now gone under six games in a row. Pittsburgh has gone under, I believe, five out of the last six as well. Neither one of these teams have totaled, in their last six games, more than 41 points. So total sits at about 40. It’s going to be pretty tough, based on what we’ve seen going over. Cleveland has not been as good on the road, especially in their red zone touchdown percentage, so that gets a little worrisome as well. And it also explains why Cleveland has lost some of these last road games by 3-3, 22-8, and 13 points. So I worry a little bit about what Cleveland can do, but my numbers say there’s value here, and especially if we can get it up through the seven.

But from a Pittsburgh standpoint, they’ve won five of their last six games. And Chris hit it, Kenny Pickett, 10 of 16, third down, and to do that on that last drive last week… Look, that kind of moxie is more important a lot of times than the numbers. But he only averaged 5.3 yards a pass in the game. Picked it up at the end when he had to. And that again, that speaks more volume than stats. We’ve got plenty of guys who averaged seven yards a pass and they can’t win any games, so we got to give him credit for that. But let’s look at what they’ve done here in these last few games. They have beat, let’s see, Baltimore without Lamar. Las Vegas. Both those were last second wins, to win by three. Carolina, they did beat by eight and I think were ahead by more in that game. Baltimore again, without Lamar Jackson. They lost that game. And Atlanta and Indianapolis.

So they haven’t beat great teams. Cleveland’s not a great team either, but I think they’re good enough. And the point here is, the Steelers haven’t won a lot of games by a margin this year. I think they’ve only won one or two games by more than eight points. We’re getting 8.5. So I’ll take my chances that Cleveland can stay in the game. Again, we think this is going to be a low scoring game, based on what we’ve seen. And a seven point game here gets us to victory, gets Chris his victory, and we’re all happy. Cleveland plus 8.5 in the two-team teaser.

T.J. Reeves:

All right, he’ll pay off the tease a little later. Let’s go officially on the record here with what we have for the Cleveland Pittsburgh game. Chris says, lay them with the Steelers. It would be an incredible six in one finish and a chance at the playoffs if they get the other help, they get the New England loss. And guys, I’m not quite sure on the machinations of what they have to have, Pittsburgh in the Jets-Dolphins game. I think they have to have a Jets win, Pittsburgh, as well. So we’ll double-check that. But Pittsburgh’s got to win and they got to have New England lose. We know that, here on the final weekend. And again, Scott is on the tease here on this one and he’ll pay that off later on on the show.

Again, if you’re just joining us, we saw several people saying, “Hey, I just got in the show.” We see that down on the bottom. We see you in the live chat, peeps. We’re here at 1:00 Eastern time. Thank you for that. I’m going to disclaim again, just like with the game that we’re about to talk about, they’re difficult to handicap when there’s nothing to play for. You don’t know who all’s playing, et cetera. And if the handicappers don’t have a play, you’re not going to get as much on this show. We’re just going to move along quicker and go to the games that matter and give you more on those.

To that end, one of those is Houston and Indianapolis. A series of “Thank God the season is over” games. This is one of them. The Texans, in line to have the number one overall pick. The Colts not good. Jeff Saturday, the interim coach, has floundered, obviously, here in recent weeks. Colts are favored by 2.5 at home. This is a mess. This is a mess, Chris Farley. I’ll come to you. I know there’s not a handicap here and we don’t know who all’s playing. Is it Sam Ehlinger at quarterback? I know Nick Foles is hurt. It’s apparently going to be Ehlinger and Matt Ryan, or maybe Ehlinger and somebody else. They can’t go to Peyton Manning. They can’t go to Jeff George. They can’t go to Bert Jones. There’s a name from the past, for the old Baltimore Colts. All right, Colts-Texans. Chris, just give me a quick thought.

Chris Farley:

I think the quick thought for me is that I think there’s some inherent value on the Texans because it’s a divisional game, and what have the Colts shown anybody lately? But that being said, this is as ugly as it gets, folks. There’s no motivational aspect here. Both teams defensively have really let down recently. You let the Giants put up over 40 points on you last week, Colts. I think their defense is done too. So complete stay away. Hey Scott, this does qualify maybe for one of those six-point teasers, so maybe that’s a way to look at this game. You could tease up the Texans. That might be about the only angle that I could see in it.

T.J. Reeves:

All right, Scott Kellen, you elaborated about that teaser angle on this. And again, you might be better off betting the futures on who’s going to coach the Texans and/or who’s going to coach the Colts when they’ve already fired Frank Reich. Anything else real quick, before we move off this one with nothing at stake?

Scott Kellen:

Nah, the teaser thing, I think the only other thing just to think through is, I think Houston can guarantee the number one pick with a loss. But let’s face it, players don’t go out there and play that that way. The only way that happens is management or head coaches keep players off the field from being able to do that. There’s no sign of that happening, really, I don’t think. And I would tease it if I did anything, but I’m not involved in this game.

T.J. Reeves:

And to that end, Lovie Smith is the coach and I live this, guys, as part of the Buccaneers radio broadcast. They went into the final game of the 2014 season at 2 and 13 and played starters for the first quarter or so, and then pulled everybody out, exactly like what you’re talking about, in a meaningless game. Lost the game, got the number one pick and picked Jameis Winston. There you go.

Scott Kellen:

[inaudible 00:59:55].

T.J. Reeves:

So let’s just see. Whatever happens here with Houston and Indianapolis, there is a game where they’re both glad it’s over with for the end of the season. Arizona and San Francisco is next. Again, this game could have some seeding implication for the 49ers, who’ve been rolling. Arizona long since eliminated. They’re going to go to David Blough, a fourth quarterback, because of injuries to Colt McCoy and also previously, Kyler Murray, with the ACL injury. So David Blough the backup. Doesn’t look like DeAndre Hopkins is going to play again at the end here. 49ers favored big by 14. The total is 40.5. Chris Farley, I’m back to you. Real quick, you’ve got an official play here on this, with Arizona eliminated. How long do the San Francisco starters play? It’s a difficult handicap. What you got?

Chris Farley:

Yeah, that’s exactly it. I think the 49ers are going to approach this game like, “Hey, yeah, sure, maybe we still have an outside chance at the number one seed, whatever.” But the Eagles aren’t going to lose. The Eagles aren’t going to lose this weekend. And so San Francisco, they’re probably right in place where they need to be. And listen, this is almost… I mean not completely obviously, but J.J. Watt is a huge reason why I’m making this bet. He’s still playing hard. It’s his final game as an NFL player. That’s making the Arizona Cardinals’ defense play better. They’re competitive. They were competitive last week. I know, against the bad Falcons team, but they were competitive the week before too. I know, against the Tampa Bay offense. I get it.

But San Francisco, I don’t think they’re going to want to unleash their full skill and talent and schemes and tricks in this game. They’re going to want to win and then that’s about it. Whereas the Cardinals, they started off last year, what? Seven and 0. They’re one of the hottest teams in the NFL. This is a very disappointing year for them. This is a divisional opponent. Arizona Cardinals want to come out with some kind of pride. I don’t think the 49ers walk away winning by 40 in this one. 49ers win, but Arizona Cardinals cover because of some gritty defense from J.J. Watt and company. And hey, maybe even a David Blough sighting. Hey, listen, if Jarrett Stidham can go off in the 49ers, then the 49ers defense is human as well. So maybe we see a little bit repeat performance of that. I wouldn’t count on it, but I think the Cardinals play with pride here.

T.J. Reeves:

And again, Blough did play some games for the Detroit Lions, back in the 2019 season. He’s been a backup for a couple different teams. He does have a little experience. Scott, I know you don’t have an official play and we need to hustle along here. Just any thought here on how… San Francisco may not play their starters very much at all in this game. It’s just very difficult, again, to handicap in week 18. Real quick?

Scott Kellen:

Yeah, the number seems about right if we were just in a normal game, so nothing there. King [inaudible 01:02:37] mentioned this last week, he’s now 17 and 5 against the spread as a road dog. They’re actually four and one against the spread when Kyler Murray doesn’t play. The one loss was in Mexico City to these 49ers. But remember, Colt McCoy went to San Francisco last year, I think it was last year, and defeated San Francisco as a fairly large dog as well.

And the last thing I’ll say here, something I think we need to pay a little bit attention to is San Francisco and that game where they beat Washington 37-20. The Commanders threw on them fairly well in that game, and Jarrett Stidham did that again last week. And my compensated sack rates, based on the competition you played, San Francisco’s middle of the road. So just going forward, if they’re having problems defending the pass down the field, this could be a problem for them in the playoffs. And again, I agree, they could pull these guys relatively early. You’ve got some guys that are hurt, banged up. Get them off the field. They could be up by 20 and win this game by 10 and it’s an easy cover for Chris.

T.J. Reeves:

All right, we see the peeps are weighing in on what to do on this game. Chris is undaunted. He says, “I’m going to take the Arizona Cardinals and the 14. It’s just simply too many points with the unknowns for San Francisco who’s looking to close again. They could still help their playoff seeding, maybe, depending on what else happens.” But again, how long do the starters play? We don’t know. He takes Arizona and the 14.

All right, let’s continue. Another one of these situations in the AFC, in a later game, where the Chargers already know they’re in the playoffs. The Broncos have fired their coach, they know they’re eliminated, and the line is Denver laying one at home. Again, I’m not for certain on whether the Chargers can help themselves in playoffs seeding with a win. How hard do they play? That also has something to do with whether New England wins, et cetera. All right, there’s not an official play. Scott Kellen, quickly to you. I know you’re not making an official play. Just give me one quick nugget here from this game. Because again, we don’t know how long the Chargers even play their starters, if they care. Go ahead.

Scott Kellen:

Yeah. Here’s the deal on this. I was going to say this, we were talking about this at the beginning and when we hit this point. This line was Denver minus three yesterday. And then, if Baltimore loses, and they play in the early set of games, if they lose then the Chargers… I’m sorry, this was the Chargers minus three yesterday, and then it moved out to… Denver minus two has come back a little bit. If Baltimore loses, the Chargers have the fifth seed wrapped up. And Staley did say earlier this week, he does see value in the fifth seed. But he won’t have to play anybody if Baltimore loses. And if Baltimore wins, then you may see this line switch from Denver being favored by one, to the Chargers by three or four points. And I remember this happened last year. I was talking about earlier where these lines sometimes come down in the light games and the books can be a little bit slow to adjust here.

So if you see Baltimore, for some reason, up 20 to 10, 12 minutes left in the fourth quarter, you might get a favorable line on Denver, that it’s going to switch like that as soon as the books really catch that. So I would just be aware of that. But we don’t know who’s going to play until we know that Baltimore result. I see a little value to the over in this game, actually. But again, if the Chargers don’t play their guys, all that’s a moot point. So really have to see what happens in that early game before you can make a call.

T.J. Reeves:

And it’s a great point you make. How do you know? You don’t know. And again, though, the five seed means you’re playing Tennessee or Jacksonville in the playoff game, which is what you would want. But you don’t know if the Chargers-

Scott Kellen:

Plus it’s Cincinnati, Buffalo or KC, right?

T.J. Reeves:

Yes. But the Chargers may not even have to win and they may be locked in, which is what’s your point about the Buffalo game. Chris, a quick thought. I know you don’t have a play and we’re moving along off of this one. Chargers-Denver.

Chris Farley:

No, Scott said it all. You don’t want to play the Bengals, Bills, or Chiefs in the first round of the AFC playoffs. You want to face either the Titans, who are not the same team this year, or a brand new, young team in the Jaguars. That’s who you want to face. So the number five seed does matter. Just pay attention to what happens in that Ravens and Bengals contest.

T.J. Reeves:

Fair enough on that. All right, we move on to a game that I will be at. I’m working with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers radio broadcast and it’s a lot like a preseason game, again, because the Buccaneers have nothing riding on this. They are the force seed as the fourth division winner, having locked up the South. Atlanta’s got nothing to play for. They can’t mess anything up for the Bucs. Desmond Ridder, the rookie quarterback. Tom Brady, how much will he play? The line is currently four. The total is 40.5.

Guys, again, no official play. Chris Farley, just give me a quick thought here. There’s some belief that Brady and the starters might play in the first quarter, to stay sharp. I don’t have any inside knowledge. Everybody keeps bombarding me as we come back on camera. I keep getting one text message after another, one phone call after another. I don’t know how much the Buccaneer starters are even going to play in this game. It screams stay away. There’s nothing in it for either team. Chris Farley, quickly?

Chris Farley:

The only way I would look at this game is maybe a play in the under. Tampa Bay has pretty decent depth on defense, even if they’re not playing their starters. They’ve got some young studs over there. They’re going to want to play a while against a rookie quarterback in Falcons. At the end of the day, even if it’s a second unit, they are competing for the rest of their career, for new contracts, et cetera. And I’m not very afraid of the Atlanta Falcons’ offense. That hasn’t done much. And I’m not very afraid of the Tampa Bay offense, especially if they take Brady out in the first quarters or after the first series or something like that. So I would lean on maybe looking at the under in this one, but then you got some contrarian thoughts on that. It’s in a dome. Maybe it’s a chance for the Atlanta offense to flex a little bit and try some things out. So no play for me. Slightly into the under.

T.J. Reeves:

And again, I see what the commenter has there, David Whoops Goliath, about Tom Brady. And I know it would be unprecedented if they lose and finish eight and nine. It’s a losing season for him. But the most important thing is the playoff game, the next week. The wild card home game that you already know you have. And so I think you may see a lot of Kyle Trask, the third quarterback, the former Florida quarterback. You may see him playing a bunch. Scott, you don’t have a feel for what Tampa Bay’s doing. Just real quick, how do you handicap it? You can’t handicap it with this Atlanta game. Just real quick.

Scott Kellen:

Yeah, it’s hard. And I think the Kyle Trask thing you pointed out, T.J., you’d know this better than me. Most game days, he has not been activated as the [inaudible 01:09:14] quarterback.

T.J. Reeves:

That’s correct. That’s correct.

Scott Kellen:

But they are going to activate him, from all signs, which is a clear indication to me that Brady’s coming out at some point here. So it’s hard to say. And maybe Atlanta isn’t the team to do this with, but when these guys come out, sometimes the play is then on Atlanta, after you know that Brady and company have sat down. And their tackles are banged up. They’re probably going to rest their tackles. You can only rest so many guys, let’s be honest about that. But there are certain guys that you know are going to get rested. So sometimes you can play the other team, going the other way. Now, the books aren’t stupid. They’re going to adjust lines, so you have to sift through all that. But I think there’s a clear indication Brady will come out of this game. The question is when, just because Trask is going to be elevated as well.

T.J. Reeves:

All right, so there you go on Atlanta-Tampa Bay, with nothing on the line and no official play. Let’s move on. The Dallas Cowboys playing the Washington Commanders. Here again, another one of those situations where there’s something in it for Dallas but nothing in it for Washington, except to maybe mess them up. Cowboys are favored by seven. Again, for Dallas playing at the same time as Philadelphia, as we pointed out. We see the total is 41 in this game. There’s no official play. Scott, I’m right back to you. Just give me a quick thought or two. Because if Philadelphia is winning big simultaneously, Dallas now understands, “We’ve got nothing to play for. We know we’re playing next week as a wild card team.” They may pull guys out. Scott, a quick thought.

Scott Kellen:

Yeah, I agree. All things being equal, Dallas should roll in this game. Sam Howell starting at quarterback. You could argue he’s not any worse than Carson Wentz and everything else that they’ve trotted out there this year. And by the way, Washington’s got a lot of other injuries as well. They’re going to sit people here.

The only way I would look at this, I was just looking, the first half line looks to be Dallas minus 3.5. Or you could look at a first quarter line. That’s maybe a way to play this where you… You’ve got to get some indicator. I don’t think Dallas has really said what they’re going to do, because their chances are extremely remote to start with so that just adds another question mark to the whole equation. So I’m not playing the game, but if I got some kind of semblance of surety that Dallas is going to play their guys in the first quarter or first half, you could look at those lines because they should roll over Washington, in that sense.

T.J. Reeves:

Chris Farley, a quick thought here, where all Washington has is to try to mess it up, but they’re going to a rookie quarterback. It is in DC. It’s a home game at FedExField. Any thought here?

Chris Farley:

I think if you want to play on the Cowboys in this game, you wait to see who rolls out there on the field. If it’s the first unit, which… All those games happen at 4:00, right? The Eagles in San Francisco-

T.J. Reeves:

Correct.

Chris Farley:

Games are both 4:25 games. So it’s all going to be happening at the same time. They’re probably going to want a little bit of security. So it makes perfect sense to bet on Dallas early in this game. The one caveat I would say to that, the one asterisk, is this is an age-old rivalry between two just old NFC East teams who have battled for decades and decades. So some pride there for Washington, for sure. But as long as Dallas’ starters are out there in the first quarter, first series, probably a good early bet on them to cover.

T.J. Reeves:

All right, good discussion going on all the games. You’re not getting as much on the ones that don’t mean anything because they’re very difficult to handicap here in week 18, on what is the play. But you’re at least getting some feel from the guys. Let’s move off the Cowboys and the Commanders.

Here’s another game with nothing on the line for either team except draft position. I saw the Panthers at field level last week. They are improved. They’re valiant. But Sam Darnold turned the ball over three times and they blew a 21-10 lead, Mike Evans torching them. So now the Panthers finish in the Superdome, where the Saints have won three straight games. But again, both teams eliminated here in this scenario. Saints laying 5.5, the total is 41.5. Chris Farley, I’m right back to you. Quick thought here. I know you don’t have an official play. Nothing on the line for either team.

Chris Farley:

Yeah, I’m trying to look and see, because I don’t believe there’s any kind of player incentives in this game. This would be the kind of game to do that. Because with nothing on the line, you just force-feed somebody who can get an extra 500K or something. I’m not seeing that for any players in this game. Saints have been playing better football, but the Panthers have always been feisty. Pretty surprised that the Panthers let down that badly last week too. So I’m sorry, just not much to say about this one, guys. I would stay away from it unless you find some kind of player incentive, player prop that you can hit in this game.

T.J. Reeves:

Scott Kellen, the Saints’ defense has been very good. They’ve won three straight games. They are at home. And again, for Carolina, they got gut punched last week and it ended any hope they had of winning the south when Mike Evans had the three long touchdown catches in the game from Tom Brady. All right, quick thought from you before we’re gone?

Scott Kellen:

Yeah, no play. The Saints finally got kind of healthy last week. Pete Werner came back at linebacker. Obviously, Marshon Lattimore had the pick six, which is a key play in the game, late in that game. They finally have gotten fairly healthy, especially on defense. I don’t like laying points with the Saints though, because they just played that close to the vest type game and run the ball a lot. I kind of had a feeling that this game could be a little higher scoring. My numbers don’t get me there though, so no play for me.

T.J. Reeves:

Again, nothing in it for either team. Carolina and the Saints in the Superdome, coming on Sunday. Three games to go here on the BetUS NFL show and these will have some playoff bearing. All right, Minnesota and Chicago is up next. Outdoors in Chicago. The Bears have obviously been floundering down the stretch of the season. Minnesota got embarrassed again last week by the Green Bay Packers. It’s amazing. They’re a 12-win team that’s negative in the point differential. The line is 8.5, the total is 43. And again, here we are going to have an official play. Scott, you’re paying off a tease earlier with Cleveland. What’s the payoff, real quick, Scott Kellen?

Scott Kellen:

We’re going to tease the Vikings down the 2.5. This line has been all over the place. It was at Pick ‘Em, I think, on Monday morning, kept getting bet up and then obviously spiraled out of control a little bit with the announcement that Justin Fields is not going to play. Nathan Peterman’s going to play.

T.J. Reeves:

Hello.

Scott Kellen:

That’s Nathan Peterman in the League. 3.6 yards a pass for his career and he’s got the famous five interception game against the Chargers, which ruined an under for me in that play in 2017. He carries a 9.2 percent interception rate and it was 10.2 percent the following year, in 2018. He’s thrown six passes this year. He’s already got an interception. I don’t know how this guy can play it. And as bad as the Vikings’ defense is, they are not going to allow Nathan Peterman to score. And by the way, the Bears are still obviously extremely banged up at the receiver position. Their offensive line took a couple more hits this week. Vikings did take a couple more hits on the offensive line. They’re now down to the third string center, Brian O’Neill. The guard is out for the year so that hurts them a little bit.

But this Bear team is bad. They’re 5, 10 and 1 against the spread. They’ve lost nine straight, 12 of their last 14. They’ve given up 25 or more points in nine straight games, and unfortunately, the offense isn’t coming back to help them in that regard. They’ve scored 20 or less than five straight games. Four of those games had Justin Fields. Now it’s Nathan Peterman.

So the only question is, how hard do the Vikings play? They have a very outside chance at the number two seed, but the number two seed is very important for them to stay home rather than go on the road, even though they’re not going to get it. Because they need Philly and I think San Francisco to both lose, or at least San Francisco to lose. But they play in their early game time slot, so they’re not playing when these other teams are playing. So it only makes sense that they will do what they need to do to win the game, to just give them an outside shot, get their guys out of there. And that’s why I like getting underneath the three. We’re just worried about them basically winning the game here and I think they’ll do that against a really, really, really bad Bears team right now.

T.J. Reeves:

All right, Chris Farley, quick thought here. We got a team with Minnesota that’s in the playoffs. The Bears who are out of it. Who, while they aren’t announcing it, they’re saying, by playing Peterman especially, “We’re trying to lose for a better draft position.” Any quick, final thought on this one before we move off of it?

Chris Farley:

Just that if I’m the Vikings, the thing that I question about this game for them is, one way that they could ensure that they face the New York Giants in the wild card round instead of a team like the Packers, or like the Lions who beat the Vikings recently, pretty heavily, they could secure their game against the Giants by losing this game. So there’s just a lot of the ugly aspects to it. The Bears probably want to lose too, for their draft prospects. Justin Fields had a chance to eclipse a single season rushing record in this game and he’s not playing, so that stinks. I was hoping to see that.

So that’s just what makes it a little too complicated for me. If I’m the Vikings, I’d try to lose this game. But at the same time, how do you lose against Nathan Peterman and the Bears’ defense? So it is just kind of a mess. In all likelihood, the Vikings are going to hang onto their number three seed anyway because the 49ers beat the Cardinals and Eagles will beat the Giants. So it’s all probably null and void at this point, but what an ugly contest.

T.J. Reeves:

It is ugly. It will be in Chicago. Scott Kellen is on the game though, as part of his two-team tease. He teases the Vikings down to 2.5, paying off what he had earlier with Cleveland teasing up to 8.5. Two games to go Baltimore and Cincinnati. Again, this has playoff implications for the AFC North for either team, potentially. Baltimore still needs a result, if they play it, in that Bengal-Bills game. And if they win in this game and the Bengals were to lose in that game, if it’s made back up, with the Buffalo Bills, then the Ravens are potentially the North champions. We don’t know if they’re going to play the Bengals-Bills game. The only thing the Ravens can do is try to win this game. If the Bengals win, they’re absolutely the North champs. All right, there’s no official play. So let’s move quickly with the Bengals favored by 7.5. Total 42. There’s something in it for both teams. It’s at Cincinnati. It’s going to be played early. Chris Farley, quickly, give me something.

Chris Farley:

At this point, signs are pointing towards Lamar Jackson not playing, so another week of Tyler Huntley. And if that’s the case, and if we see the Cincinnati Bengals in their full mental aptitude, which that’s something we have to consider here. They could play differently after what they experienced. But if it is the same Bengals team, I don’t think the Ravens have a shot in this game, just because Tyler Huntley and the offense hasn’t been moving the ball. The Bengals have been lights out at home. Over 30 points per game. Defense is flying around too. I don’t see how the Ravens stay in this game, if all things are as they usually are mentally for these teams. So in that aspect, I think the Bengals make a pretty nice teaser leg. But again, I just can’t bet on this game because of the circumstances.

T.J. Reeves:

And as we said earlier, for those just joining us, you wouldn’t blame anybody from Cincinnati as well. They were out there on the field, watching the CPR being performed around Damar Hamlin on Monday night. We don’t know who all’s playing in this game, as we do this on Thursday, but Cincinnati needs to win it to win the division. Scott, I know you don’t have an official play. Give me a quick thought so we can move along real quick here off of this.

Scott Kellen:

If we had any in indication that they’re going to go, and go hard, I think the teaser is a good play. They’ve averaged 16 points a game with Huntley. The Bengals have scored 20 or more in, I think, seven straight games, and 23 or more in five straight home games. They’re getting probably past 20 points in this game. I don’t see any way Baltimore does that. But you got to know that Baltimore’s going to play or if Cincinnati’s going to play hard and we just don’t know that. Pass for me.

T.J. Reeves:

Yep, we don’t. All right. No official play on this one. But again, the North belongs to Cincinnati if they win it. And it may also factor in on not needing to make up the Buffalo game for another reason if Cincinnati wins it. Let’s see what happens.

Scott Kellen:

Or by the way, T.J., if they announce that that game’s canceled, Cincinnati has won the division. That the Bills-

T.J. Reeves:

And again, Baltimore doesn’t want that, but Baltimore’s not the ultimate priority here. We’ll see what the NFL does do. For now, they say that game is on and that it is being played, but we’ll see. We’ll see what happens. Good points you make, Scott. One game to go, and again, this one affects the NFC wild card playoff picture. The Sunday night game is the Packers laying 4.5 with the Lions. Packers have to win to get into the playoffs. The Lions have to win to get into the playoffs. And again, Seattle is the variable. If Seattle wins, that will eliminate the Lions before this game is played. Now the Lions are only playing to mess it up for the Packers. If Seattle loses, then both of these teams know, Lions and Packers, “We can win and get in on the NFC wild card picture.” All right, the official play is from Chris Farley, to wrap the show up. You’re paying off your tease. What is it?

Chris Farley:

Yep. I’m going to tease up the Lions seven points, which is a very non-traditional teaser. Kind of made me backtrack and think maybe I should be on the Browns with Scott. But I got to go seven points either way because of that initial teaser on the Chiefs. I think this is going to be a close game.

Look, I think the Packers win it. I hope the Packers win it. And it’s not because I’m so fond of Scott, although I am happy for Scott if that happens. It’s more so because these Packers just seem like such a dangerous team. I love what they’re doing right now. Really, a win last week on all sides of the ball. Special teams defense. With Lions though, you just have to believe. Even if Seattle wins in that 4:00 game, the way Dan Campbell coaches this team, we might be more exposed to Dan Campbell’s culture than any other team this year, from the team being on hard knocks, et cetera. They’re going to want to be competitive in this game. In the least, they’re going to want to knock off the Green Bay Packers from getting in.

Two teams that have been explosive on offense. Detroit was really impressive last week and it is in the frozen tundra. It’s going to be freezing temperatures there. The Lions, that is one asterisk, they haven’t been quite as explosive in outdoor weather that’s been cold. But these are two teams who… I think they match up really well. The one concern for the Lions is, they don’t quite have the defense that Green Bay has. And recently, Green Bay is showing a secondary. Look what Jaire Alexander did last week. Justin Jefferson. They were starting to get to the quarterback a little bit more. This is still, in my opinion, a Super Bowl roster on defense. It really is. They could utilize that, all the way through to the playoffs.

The Lions on the other hand, you can maybe say they’re average in their best game. Hutchinson’s getting to the quarterback. But they’re going to need to play really well on defense to hopefully limit Green Bay’s offense, an offense that we see is growing before our very eyes. They’re running the ball very well every week. And I say that the key to this game is going to be if the Packers can run well, once they run over 130 yards, they are seven and one this year in those situations. Six and one or seven and one, I forget it straight up. But Lions, not great against the run. We’ll see if they can keep. But here’s the thing, the Lions’ offense has just been so good. I can’t bet against them in a teaser. I can’t take Green Bay on the other side. So we’re going to go Lions plus 11.5.

T.J. Reeves:

All right, Scott Kellen, you don’t have to say this. Green Bay has been money with Aaron Rodgers forever in big games at Lambeau. Here it is. They got to win and if they win, they’re in, amazingly, with the wins down the stretch of the season. They don’t need other help from Seattle or anybody else. All right, Scott, quick thought here because we’ve got to go. You don’t have an official play, but a quick number or two, or thought.

Scott Kellen:

Well, first off, they get in, Chris, they’ll probably play the Giants at some point again and lose to the Giants in the playoffs because they always lose to the Giants in the playoffs. So let’s hope that doesn’t happen. To your point, their defense has played well, but let’s look at that. In the last four games they’ve given up 19, 12, 20 and 17 points against Justin Fields who was banged up in an injury-riddled offensive line. Then they faced the Rams without all their star offensive players. They played Tua, who was very good in the first half and after the concussion, was miserable in the second half.

So again, you got to question the defense here a little bit. And then a Viking team who has a very large home-road dichotomy as well. So it’s not surprising. They’re going to get challenged more here with Detroit because the Vikings’ defense, by my metrics, is only 17th best in the league. It’s okay, and you got that whole home-road dichotomy. Detroit has that as well. 81 percent red zone touchdown percentage at home, 50 percent on the road, but they’re still the fifth best, by my metrics, offense in the League and I think they’re going to challenge the Packers a little bit more as well.

I’ve got decent value on Green Bay, a good situation on Detroit, so it’s a no play for me. I would lean to Green Bay a little bit, but if you’re going to play Detroit, you might want to sit there and wait. Because if Seattle wins, we know there’s no question Dan Campbell will have this team playing hard. But that line could go up as high as seven, just knowing how this stuff happens, because Green Bay will need it and it won’t matter to Detroit, but Detroit will play hard regardless.

T.J. Reeves:

All right. The official play is Chris Farley’s. Lock him in one more time on the second leg of the tease. He’ll tease it up to 11.5 with the Lions. And the Lions have to hope, hope, hope that the Rams knock off the Seahawks to keep them alive, the Lions, for the wild card. Green Bay needs no help. Green Bay wins, they’re in. Just like Tom Brady took advantage of it. Win and you’re in. He did last week. Will Aaron Rodgers do that with the Packers? We will see.

Guys, well done. We got to the finish line. Remember to check out our sportsbook website. Thank all of you for watching here on the program. Here are the best NFL lines. If you joined us late, this is what the guys are on. You can see it there on the screen. Chris is on numerous sides, as you see. Scott has got several plays with teasers, as you see over on the right side of the screen, including a couple of them. And there you go.

Boys, we’re done. Enjoy the final weekend of the regular season that starts Saturday and culminates Sunday night with that Packer-Lions game. Lot of interesting playoff implications in some of these games. Let’s see what happens. Chris Farley, thank you. Be well. Good luck my friend. Scott Kellen, thank you. Good luck to you as well. And we thank everybody for watching here on BetUS TV.

 

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