NFL Week 2 Predictions | Football Odds, Picks and Best Bets

Jared Smith:

Whereas in the other corner, the only two-time champ of the Las Vegas Hilton SuperContest. You can find him only at pregame.com. He is Mr. Steve Fezzik. Steve, how was your week one, my friend?

Steve Fezzik:

Yeah, very similar to Chris and believe me, I’ll have plenty of weeks where I do well on the show and maybe not so well in my bets and my late plays, but same thing on the show, had a couple losers with the Pittsburgh Steelers. Dropped with the Steelers and dropped, unfortunately, with Indianapolis. Everything else went well, including low-scoring game Sunday and Monday night football, so very happy.

Jared Smith:

I think that’s another key thing as we kind of move along, this show is being taped and sent out to you fine folks on a Wednesday. The market moves. The market change. We will do our best to snapshot the market at its current point in time, give you the best available wagering options at this current point in time. But injuries are a big part of the equation already, and it’s only week two. And we are just starting to get some of the practice reports and some of the information trickle out about the injuries. We will do our best again to give you the high-level view on a Wednesday, but Thursday, Friday, those numbers and those injuries, of course, will shape the market even more considerably. So keep that in mind as we move forward.

Also, before we move forward, our golden ticket. One of us is holding the golden ticket, and we’re giving away a free truck. Now, you can’t win the free truck today, but you can win free entry to the drawing for the truck by properly guessing, and there you see the truck going across our screen. Look at that. Great job in the back with the graphics team there. You have to let us know in the chat who is holding the golden ticket. After our Best Bet segment, we will reveal the big reveal, tell you who is holding the golden ticket and who gets the free entry into the truck giveaway. Of course, we will do that at the end of the show when we reveal our Best Bets.

But now it’s the time to talk about our records from week one. And guys, I’m not going to lie. When I looked at the records this week, I was, I guess it’s a small sample so I’m not going to brag too much, but your boy’s on top with a winning percentage of about 60% there, three, two, and one on the week, four and four for Chris, two, two, and one for Steve. And again, we are above 500 collectively as a unit, but I’d be lying if I said I thought I was going to be the breadwinner after week one, guys. So, overall-

Las Vegas Chris:

Oh, just stop it, Jared. Come on.

Jared Smith:

… look it up if you stand it.

Las Vegas Chris:

It’s a snapshot in time. It’s Yahtzee. What’s most important-

Jared Smith:

Steve, go ahead, give me your rebuttal to-

Las Vegas Chris:

… is what we’re saying about the teams and when we comment about, “Well we’re going to be looking for this, we’re going to be looking for that. And maybe we’ll get into a process of adding games on the comment section by the end of the week” certain situations.

Steve Fezzik:

I will give out a quick bet right now. Who has the golden ticket this week, since I had it last week? I would say the chance I have it is probably only 13% because if they’re paying any attention, they will try to make it look random. And guess what? When you’re trying to make things look random, they become rather uniform, which means, Chris, who’s the other host, becomes the favorite, and he might have it 50%. Jared may have it 35%. And little me, don’t pick me, I don’t think I have the golden ticket. I don’t know.

Jared Smith:

I’m just the beauty here. The brains are residing on the corners of your screen. I’m just the pretty face that holds it all together so I’m not going to be holding the golden ticket too many weeks. The golden ticket, of course, gets you that free entry into the BetUS tough truck giveaway.

All right. I don’t want to waste any more time recapping because, let’s be honest, three and two, three and three, two and two, four and four. We are just scratching the surface into the amount of picks, the amount of analysis, and the amount of information we are going to give to you on this show. And that is the meat and potatoes of the meal, folks. So let’s get right into it.

Of course, all of the NFL odds we are going to show you are on BetUS, and we’re going in rotation number. Guys, the biggest takeaway for me, and this kind of plays into what we’re going to see on Thursday night, but the biggest takeaway for me from week one was just the sloppy quarterback play across the board. And maybe we’re going to see some of that with this Vikings Eagles game this week because, let’s be honest, Kirk Cousins struggled a little bit on Sunday. We saw this line, basically the look-ahead was a flat seven. We didn’t see a whole lot of movement on either side until today. We have now seen this line move off of seven and move a little bit towards the Vikings as a road underdog. Total didn’t move a whole lot either off of 48 and a half. So both teams dealing with injury issues. You got the Vikings offensive line. Darrisaw, left tackled Bradbury center, both nicked up, Bradbury is out.

And then the Eagles dealing with a big defensive cluster injury situation. Nakobe Dean, the green dot linebacker, placed on IR. That’s huge. He calls the plays. The guy they replaced him with, Reed Blankenship, he’s also banged up. Plus, you got Bradbury nicked up as well in concussion protocol. So both teams coming off of big injury games. But the question that I have to ask is, how do we downgrade the Vikings after their loss? Because Philly did win, they did cover, but it’s Minnesota, Steve, that is dealing with licking their wounds not only in the injury department but also losing the game outright as a favor to the Bucs, so how do we downgrade the Vikings coming in?

Steve Fezzik:

So no downgrade to the Vikings in my numbers. Statistically, gained almost six yards per play, gave up right around four, so they won the stats. It was actually the exact opposite of last year, where the Vikings lost all the stats and won the close games. One underlying theme, I will say, is that last year, the Giants and the Vikings were massively overrated all year long, the Sharps said they’re overrated. And we were right. It just took till this year for that to become true.

I don’t see how I can bet the Vikings now that they’re not getting seven anymore. Kirk Cousins is terrible in primetime typically. He was terrible in this specific game in this specific spot last year, but I think the Eagles Super Bowl hangover, they got a phony cover. I don’t like betting one and oh straight-up teams against oh and one straight-up teams. If there’s one subset that you want to look towards, play the team that knows, hey, oh and two, you hear that all the time you start oh and two, you’re very unlikely to make the playoffs. So the oh and one team has every extra incentive. I’m passing the game.

Jared Smith:

Chris, any follow up for you here?

Las Vegas Chris:

I didn’t downgrade the Vikings at all either and I saw the Eagles do pretty much exactly what I expected them to do and look a little flat against New England. They got lucky to cover. Unfortunately I had New England last week and I pushed with betting, lost on the show, disappointing loss, but that’s the way it goes. That number five is very valuable Steve, don’t you forget it, but I like the Vikings if you can get seven if it pops back up. Otherwise, I’m just not a believer in Philly. I think the Vikings had a rough loss, things just didn’t go their way and I still think that they’re okay. I don’t like to talk about all the Cousins maybe going to the Jets or someplace else, that’s disruptive, but I think they’ll get back on track and show a good effort this game.

Jared Smith:

Cousin’s primetime angle I think is over baked into the narrative. It’s not something that I’m going to base a wager on. I think the two things that are actionable in this game are the Vikings injuries upfront. The Eagles have a very good defensive line. It played very well I thought on Sunday, even though they were facing the Patriots, which I think might not offer as much pushback as some other teams and you look at Philly’s defensive injuries as well. I think the consensus that we agreed to before we came on, and none of us have a play on this game, but we think Kirk Cousins in this Vikings offense is going to be very aggressive. Whether he lasts the entire game because of the offensive line playing in front of him, that is a completely different story. But I would be surprised to Steve’s point about oh and one versus one and oh, if we don’t get the kitchen sink in this game from Minnesota’s offense because they just didn’t have the best output scoring wise.

So no plays across the board here. Thursday night, always tough, right? Thursday night, the first Thursday night game, short week. I think that is a very tough handicap and all three of us are passing on the Thursday night game. All right, let’s move on to Sunday. Early window Chargers at Titan. So look ahead here. Chargers minus three, slight move towards the road favorite Monday, we got to three and a half but quickly got bought back down to three and we’re kind of sitting there with a juice three now. Total open, 46 and a half. We saw a slight move down to 45 but nothing overly significant. I think the reason why we saw the move down guys, Austin Ekeler of course all-star running back trending towards not playing this week with an ankle injury. The Chargers, how about this? This shocked me the other day. The Chargers ran the ball 40 times against the Dolphins he only threw at 33.

They had a lot of success on the ground against Miami and I’m curious if we see Ekeler injury and we see Justin Kelly who also played pretty well. Are we going to see the same type of offensive scheme for the Chargers in this game? I think overall I don’t have a really strong vibe on this game because the Titans also have some injuries in the secondary as well. They’re starting corner Christian Fulton, he’s questionable, the backup corner Trey Everett questionable, Amani Hooker also questionable. So the Chargers ran the ball really well against the Dolphins, but this week the Titans, their deficiencies are in the secondary. So do we see finally Kellen Moore throttle up. None of us really have a strong opinion on this game either with the exception of our pal Chris who thinks three might be a good spot with Tennessee.

Las Vegas Chris:

I’m taking a shot on Tennessee. I just think it was a strange game one for them and I think it was an issue of them just getting the cobwebs out. It was strange. I think Derrick Henry did not lead the team in [inaudible 00:11:55] he wasn’t in for the big plays. I think that they’re going to change that up a little bit because they have to have him in. Even if they’re not going to run him on the big plays, they have to have him at least as a decoy. So I don’t understand that reasoning. Tannehill I think will be a little bit sharper, so I look for a better performance at home and the Chargers defense boys, they’ve got some problems, not sold on them.

Ekeler had a great game, but even if he plays this week, he’s going to be dinged up so you’re not going to get max performance out of him. I just think in this situation when you have two winless teams playing each other, just playing the dog in general, especially at home is a pretty good proposition. And even without that I just like Tennessee to rebound a little bit and muck up that division after Jacksonville loses to Kansas City.

Steve Fezzik:

Yeah, I think-

Jared Smith:

Steve, any response?

Steve Fezzik:

Warning, math, math, it’s my turn dear. It’s like talk Steve talk. So I gave my clients the Titans, so why the heck am I not giving out the Titans here? Well, I gave them plus three and a half that was available back on Monday, so I think it’s a little bit optimistic to think that I could have spotted a 60% bet on an NFL side, so I’m going to use 57% that I’m going to assume that I’m going to win that play. That’s solid, 57 and 43 would be my projection on Titans plus three and a half. But notice how that solid EV bet crumbles like cake if I don’t win on three. So now instead of going 57 and 43, I go 47, 43 and 10, so it’s about looks like a breakeven bet now at plus three, whereas after I figure in the VIG versus a just absolute kick butt play at the plus three and a half.

So I’m just being sensitive. I got to tell you, if there’s one takeaway when betting the NFL, the threes are king, getting the best of the threes and obviously the seven’s important also as are the fourteens and the tens and I’m going to show a little discipline, but I will agree with Chris, I would still lean to Tennessee. My power rating number only makes it two and a half, so my power ratings say it’s still a good play at three.

Las Vegas Chris:

I also want to point out that you’re paying even juice instead of paying that one 10 and you might be able to see a three and a half pop up if you’re patient on it. I don’t think it’s in danger of going down to two and a half at this point. So little extra value there with the even money.

Jared Smith:

And this is the follow-up that I would have. The fact that we saw the look ahead three and then the reopen three and a half quick move there to the favorite. Does that indicate to you that the neck, if there is another move, it won’t be towards the dog? That initial move was towards the favorite. We got the three and a half, you guys played it back down to three. The odds of it, unless we get an injury or something unforeseen, but let’s just say the market plays out in a vacuum, the odds are you’re not going to see it pushed back down to two considering that first initial move was towards the favorite.

Steve Fezzik:

Gosh, it’s complicated. I would say all things being equal in college, I think a line in motion tends to remain in motion. The NFL is so much tighter, it really comes down to practice reports. It’s not unusual to have double moves. As an example, last week Jacksonville got fed up. That was the sharp side Jacksonville from three and a half up to five. But then on game day Indianapolis was the sharp side, five down to three and a half. Same thing happened with Philly and New England. It went from three and a half to five to three and a half. That happens all the time in the NFL.

Jared Smith:

Yeah, interesting. I think the only pushback I have on the Titans is just Ryan Tannehill like a negative 16 completion percentage over expected now again on the road against a good Saint’s defense, we’ll see what the Chargers do. I was shocked, the Chargers did not record a sack. They had Bosa and a Mac against a bad Dolphins O-line without Armstead and they could not record a sack against the Dolphins on Sunday. I think that is a worry spot for the Chargers. If they cannot get pressure on the quarterback, maybe Tannehill will have a much easier go of it in game two with DeAndre Hopkins who also looked a little bit as time is undefeated father time undefeated on DeAndre Hopkins. So we’ll see how that tightens offense performs this week, but Chris is a believer and he is taking Tennessee plus three as we move forward into the depths of the south, the deep south in Atlanta, Packers and Falcons.

Look ahead here was Atlanta minus one and a half and now look, see what we have here. The Packers now the favorite after a very impressive win on Sunday in Chicago. Atlanta also won, but you could say they were at home against the rookie quarterback, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. They were supposed to win. It was the Packers that we saw get the move in the market. I was surprised that no one was going to take the bait with Atlanta as a home dog here. However, Steve, you do think this presents an interesting teaser opportunity with the Falcons.

Steve Fezzik:

Yeah, so the next two games I essentially make the games pick them. I think there’s been an overreaction in the lines versus last week, so big deal. If I’m playing minus one or plus two, they’re probably not going to tie, they’re probably not going to land one. But where it makes a huge deal is, and the teasers obviously we never tease a minus one. We love teasing plus ones and plus twos up to plus eights if we can get it. And so if I’m making the line pick, I’m absolutely going to get there with the Falcons low totals the next two games also.

So Falcons, we’ll do a six and a half points tease, we’ll get them up to plus eight and we’ll go ahead and get the Texans up to plus eight as well here at BetUS. BetUS good teaser odds minus 120. Don’t be laying minus 130 on a six point teaser or minus 140 on a six and a half point teaser. You won’t win. You got to get the six pointers have to be minus 120, six and a half pointers minus 130, which BetUS has, I think these will be two close competitive games. Yeah, Jordan Love look good, Packers look good and that’s why we’re getting more line value here. Two close games and we’re going to play a teaser.

Jared Smith:

This is a good teaser spot for Atlanta at home.

Las Vegas Chris:

There’s a lot of teasers available this week and I’m not going to be participating in many of them. For whatever reason the Packers looked better than they really were last week against the Bears. Still not buying the Packers, it’s really easy to get behind them but they got pretty dinged up last week and I’d like to see who actually plays and who doesn’t play. Atlanta did not impress me at all. That margin of victory was not indicative of how the game was played. It was pretty close. There’s some leaks in that team, so I don’t know what really is going to happen. I think Steve, on the Atlanta side of the teaser is probably the good move. I’m not going to say it’s impossible. I am not going to be getting on Green Bay though. I don’t want to be on the banana and the tailpipe program with the Green Bay. I think that the value has to be on the Atlanta side in a teaser and I probably don’t have any interest in this game, straight up. Did I play? Oh I played the total on this, didn’t I?

Jared Smith:

You don’t have it on the sheet at least.

Las Vegas Chris:

I don’t? Oh, because the number was bad. I do like the first half under but what’s the current line? Do we have that?

Steve Fezzik:

Yeah, we’re looking at 19 and a half, so obviously-

Jared Smith:

[inaudible 00:19:33] 19 and 20.

Las Vegas Chris:

If you find a 20, I like the first half under but BetUS doesn’t have it, so it’s not an official play. It’s being tracked but I do like that to be a slow starting game.

Steve Fezzik:

That first half 20 is critical. I can’t emphasize enough about 10% of the time a low total is going to land 21st half. You’re not going to make money playing under 19 and half or over 20 and a half on games where that key number of 20 is available.

Las Vegas Chris:

Yes.

Jared Smith:

Yeah, 20 is I’m noticing that for sure. I don’t really know what to make of Jordan Love’s debut guys, honestly. Fifth in overall efficiency, which is good, but negative five and a half completion percentage over expected. That’s obviously not good and I don’t know how much of the packer success on offense is just the Bears are maybe a lot worse than we thought, especially on defense. The injuries I think are the big touch point here. I was really close to getting on the over in this game, but the Aaron Jones injury scares me. I know he is supposed to play but it’s a soft tissue injury for a running back after one week. That is not good and we don’t know about Christian Watson.

So I thought without Watson on Sunday, the Packers offense looked okay, but if you take Watson off the field and Aaron Jones nicked up, that’s where I get concerned. And on defense you’ve got Quay Walker, who is the highest graded defensive player on the field for the Packers on Sunday. He’s in concussion protocol. I still, this Falcon’s offense man, Desmond Ridder was Check Down Charlie, it was really ugly. Go ahead Chris.

Las Vegas Chris:

Watson was mentioning something about maybe going in the IR apparently, so even if, I don’t think he can be in good shape and even if he shows up somehow you’ve got to expect some rust and some adjustment time. So that’s the other issue.

Jared Smith:

Yeah, Desmond Ridder was not good either, so I think this is a tough game to grade because it feels like Atlanta. My guess is, and maybe Steve, you can kind of hammer this one home because you’re on the Falcon side of this teaser. My guess is Arthur Smith looked at the schedule and said, “Okay, Carolina, week one at home, Bryce Young’s not going to put a bunch of points on the board. Let’s not show our best stuff because we’ve got the Packers defense next week and that game is going to be huge.” It was not a very aggressive or creative Atlanta offense on Sunday. It was very vanilla. My guess is we see a little bit more gadgets and gizmos that Arthur Smith has in his bag against a very good Packers defense this week.

Steve Fezzik:

That all makes sense except for it’s tied at halftime and so maybe those gidgets and gizmos and gadgets and Mr. Gadgets should have been employed and instead it was very much a workmanlike effort. But pursuant to that, the way the game was playing out, I think if you had Atlanta money line, you’re like, hey just think and dunk and Caroline will screw this up, we’ll win, and that’s what happened.

Jared Smith:

Yeah, I think it’s going to be, and that’s why I thought 40 and a half, if you get the weapons in there for the Packers, it’s an overplay for me but too many uncertainties with the injuries and it’s Wednesday, I’m not going to give you an over on Wednesday when I don’t know if the starting running back of that team is even going to play. So this is where the timing of our show is challenging, but also we can get ahead of the market when we’re in front of certain things. So the only official play in this game is the Falcons in a teaser for Mr. Fezzik and he is teasing them with a game we are going to talk about right now and it’s Colts and the Texans look at here was Houston minus two and a half reopened right at around that number and we’ve seen some pretty steady money towards the underdog, excuse me, Indie minus two and a half on the road and again we’ve seen some pretty steady money towards the dog, now pushing that line down to one and a half.

I was shocked when I saw Indie now flip to the favorite and I guess some of it is bad Houston and offensive line issues for the Texans. Cluster injury, starting center right tackle we’re out preseason, then on Sunday they lost their replacement right tackle George Fant. So it looks like Houston’s dealing with some injury issues upfront. CJ Stroud had a tough go of it in that opening game and you think this is a good spot to tease the home dog again Steve?

Steve Fezzik:

I think it’s going to be a super ugly game. Anthony Richardson’s probably going to play. He may not even be 100% after that huge hit. I do have to compliment him. I thought he looked good. He was clearly the best of the three rookie quarterbacks. It’s not really fair to say, hey, the rookie quarterbacks went oh and three straight up and against the spread because Indie would’ve covered if he hadn’t had to go up the field and Gardner Minshew, it’s like, “I got to tie my shoes. Wait, I got to come in? You need me to get this covered? No thank you. I’ll just do terrible things.” I will say I watched a lot of football, so there was a play that Richardson’s going to be stopped and he’s not going to get the first down. He’s two yard short.

I’ve watched football my entire life, the quarterback never ever gets the first down in pro football in that circumstance ever. And yet he just bowled over two defenders and went an extra two yards. So that was truly incredible, which that bodes well for Richardson, his first year in the NFL being able to move the sticks and get those first downs. He’ll be out of the league in three years if he keeps doing it though, it’s going to be an ugly game. 20 to 17, frankly I would’ve teased either side up to plus eight and so on the opener I would’ve been teasing Indie and now I’m teasing Houston.

Jared Smith:

Chris, how’d you feel about Richardson’s debut?

Las Vegas Chris:

I thought he looked pretty good also. I did end up with a small position on Indie plus the point, so it was a very annoying loss but they certainly deserved to cover, you would think. Houston hung on tough for a while against Baltimore, but I think that that might also be a Baltimore issue and Houston just got crushed. They’ve got a lot of key injuries, their offensive line’s going to be a mess. It’s a big concern, especially with a rookie quarterback back there. So there’s some monster trends that favor both of these teams actually in this situation and I want to play both of these teams even though they’re not good teams. So it’s going to be a sit back and wait, Steve’s right, you basically tease the underdog in this situation as long as you’re getting over that touchdown. If I get involved, that’s going to be my decision, but at this point I’m just going to sit it up. Did I get this one out? I do have the first half under though. Do I have, no, so the number’s not good. What’s that current line?

Steve Fezzik:

Probably around 20 and a half-

Jared Smith:

I’m sure it’s 19 and a half.

Steve Fezzik:

… 19 and a half.

Las Vegas Chris:

Yeah. So you need the 20 on that one. So the 19 and a half isn’t available or the 20 isn’t available here, but if you can find a 20, I like the under 20 in the first half on that.

Jared Smith:

I think the market was pretty decisive here, I think you see a line flip and I know it’s only from two to one on one side. It’s not from three to three, so it’s not a huge, but you have the market moving pretty steadily in favor of a rookie quarterback on the road and I think that is noteworthy for sure. The one thing about Indie that just scares the bejesus out of me, and this is why I’m betting the under in this game, so huge cluster injury at running back. I mean, I guess I’ll use the word injury lightly because Jonathan Taylor, whatever his situation is, and then you’ve got Zach Moss still questionable with a broken arm and in the backup, Evan Hull got hurt on Sunday, he’s now on IR. The Colts only have one healthy running back on their roster and that’s Dion Jackson.

So you’ve got Anthony Richardson who is a minus five and a half completion percentage over expected, now going on the road in the division and you’ve got your entire running back room nicked up. It doesn’t instill a whole lot of confidence to me that there’s going to be a lot of points scored in this game because I don’t really think either team’s going to move it pretty effectively and I would say under. I got 39 and a half on the under here, that is my official wager for this game. We’ve got Steve teasing the Texans as well as the Falcons, the second leg of his teaser and I’m going to go with and we had some great chats or comments in the chat about Richardson not being able to slide Ed Blount. Appreciate that comment pal. Yeah, he does need to learn how to slide and then [inaudible 00:27:52] said he watched the entire Colts Jags game, three for 17 on third and fourth down.

I see a lot of drives ending in sadness in this game. So we’re going to go with the under 39 and a half my first pick of the day here on the Colts and the Texans. All right, let’s move on. Seahawks and Lions, look at here is Detroit minus three and as you would expect a strong move towards the home side at reopen. We saw it quickly jump to four and now we are seeing all the way up to minus six. We did see a six and a half briefly here in Vegas and then that’s where we kind of got the nibble point on the dog. So it looks like that three point move from three to six is kind of the window we’re working in here. Total 51 and a half had open bet all the way down to 47. So through one of the key numbers and approaching another one and it makes sense guys, cluster injury for the Seahawks on the offensive line, both starting tackles.

Charles Cross, Abe Lucas will miss time. They signed Jason Peters this week, 41 year old Jason Peters to fill in on the offensive line for the Seahawks and I don’t think it’s going to help even if you had Cross and Lucas because Geno Smith looked really bad against the Rams, just 112 passing yards, negative completion percentage over expected and that’s even more bad, more alarming considering how bad the Rams defense is with the exception of Aaron Donald. So the question is guys, as Chris has the only wager in this game, so I’ll start with you first. How do we downgrade Seattle after what was a really bad performance in week one?

Las Vegas Chris:

Well, one of the most important parts of going to week two is to not overreact and this is one of the few situations where I feel like an adjustment is necessary only because I was skeptical about Seattle coming in. I mentioned last week I wasn’t really buying into them because they faded badly last season, the quarterback got paid. I didn’t like either of those situations and the fact that this team got railed on it by a team that everybody was ridiculing, that was a huge surprise, especially at home. That just does not happen. Now obviously I expected the Rams to do well, but that was dangerous. And a lot of it happened, the second half became moot just because of the injuries that happened on Seattle side. As far as Detroit goes, I am a homer, I stayed off of an official pick, but when we talked about it last week, I said I think they got a chance to win this game.

I don’t think I’m drinking the Kool-Aid and I’m going to say the same thing again. I watched it. The Lions did not play well against Kansas City. Kansas City didn’t play well against Detroit, they both kind of got away with it. Somehow Detroit defense shows up, holds them without a touchdown in the second half and does a pretty darn good job. I think you’re going to get a much better performance out of Detroit than we saw last week. I think you’re going to have a absolute jammed high energy place. Barry Sanders statue being unveiled, standing room only tickets are being sold today. The coaches said I want it as loud as possible and that’s what they’re going to bring. And you’ve got a wounded Seattle with all kinds of holes coming into Detroit and this would be typically a situation where you beat all over the dog, look ahead line of three, it goes up to six.

Of course you take the dog, I’m sorry, I think Detroit’s going to win this game. I had to come up with a quick bet and it’s on the spreadsheet and I’m putting myself in the penalty box because I put a bad bet in there but I couldn’t find the alternate line. What I would like to do is take the Detroit money line and I’d like to use the alternate line instead of on New England, instead of doing a teaser. But in my haste, I just stuck to a bad teaser with Detroit when it was at six, but now it’s a five and a half. So now it’s really bad with New England plus eight and a half. So if there is a way to take Detroit money line with the alternate line New England plus eight and a half, that’s the way to play this and that’s the way I look at this game.

Steve Fezzik:

Yeah, so I agree with Chris, big downgrade on Seattle. I downgraded them two points. So they talk about overreactions, I think that’s a proper reaction. Terrible game and injuries to their tackles, pursuant to what Chris was saying, and again, warning math, math coming. But I got good news, I’m not going to ask you to integrate by parts or use L’Hopital’s rule, just very basic stuff.

Jared Smith:

I don’t even know what those two things are.

Steve Fezzik:

Calculus, my son’s 12, he’s taking calculus and I can’t help him anymore because I’ve forgotten. When you’re playing a six point favorite or five and that point favorite and you’re teasing them, you’re laying minus 280. Now it may not feel like you’re like, “No, I’m not laying minus 280, Fez, I’m laying minus 120. We got the good odds at BetUS.” And yes, those are good odds, but you got to win both. So it works out. You’re basically, if you’re risking 280 to win 100, minus 280, you’re really risking 280 to win 100 on your first leg. It will hypothetically cash and then you’re really risking 380 to win your second leg, again minus 280 and that’s what your payout winds up being where you win your $200 or your $100. But I don’t need to play the teaser because I play the money line.

And at BetUS the current number’s at minus 250, frankly if I shop around some other books I can get as low. I even saw minus 225. So think about this, if the Houston Astros are playing today, they’re not going to get swept. They shouldn’t against Oakland. Oakland does have a good picture, tune into the BetUS MLB show on the archives and check out what the guys say about this. But the bottom line is I’m not laying 280 on Houston if I can lay 225 and essentially that’s the situation on this game. So it’s fine to play Detroit to win and that’s where Chris was getting at. He’s like really, he just wants to play Detroit on the money line at minus 255 or less, which minus 250 is available.

That’s essentially what his play is. And so he’s making the equivalent where he’s pointing out I can have the same bet and I can parlay them on the alt line and take the Jets, I’m sorry, and take New England plus eight and a half and you wind up with a higher pay. You can fool around with it, you can risk 100 on both and you’ll do better making the identical bet doing it that way. So that’s where Chris was getting at and I agree with that.

Jared Smith:

I think that makes total sense. I think Detroit here, first of all, the one positive for Seattle, there is one positive this week, they should get Jamal Adams and Devon Witherspoon back, so the secondary should be a little bit more buttoned up. I didn’t think their defense played poorly last week, I just think that game was such a cluster between the Chiefs and the lines, nothing went well for either team on either side frankly. So I’m fascinated to see how Detroit handles that emotion. They had the long break, I would say the mini [inaudible 00:35:06] might not help now, maybe it helps a little later in the year.

But you get that extra few days and you get a chance to now get your sea legs underneath you and you get a Seattle team that man, we might be looking back on this season and saying, wow, Seattle was way worse than the expected because if they’re without those two tackles for an extended period of time and Geno Smith cannot figure things out, that is not going to be a good situation there for the Seahawks. So Chris is playing the lines and a teaser again, shop around for these numbers as always. That should go without saying every time we give out a pick because there’s always-

Las Vegas Chris:

One thing I did like about Campbell, is after the game against Kansas City, and I kind of said this before, is I honestly believe the line, it’s different this time. And sure enough he said the perfect thing after the game, all I did was verify what I already knew. So that’s the confidence that they’re playing with and I know that’s unusual to tie it in with the Lions, but it’s different this year, it really is.

Jared Smith:

It makes a ton of sense. I think they start two and I think they win this game. I think Lions and Survivor this week is a decent look as well, especially if you’re desperate and you don’t want to play the Bills, you don’t trust the Bills. We’ll get to that game in a little bit. But first our only official play for this game again is Chris’s teaser. Detroit first leg of a teaser and we’ll get to the second leg coming up a little bit later in the show. Look ahead here on the Bears in the Bucs as we move forward. It was Chicago minus one and a half, as is the case when you lose as I guess we’ll call them a slight favorite, I think it closed at one for Chicago on Sunday, we see the line flip. Now Tampa Bay is a three point favorite, but again shop around for this number because we’re seeing some two and a half’s out there including I think at BetUS which just moved during our production meeting, which means our poor graphics people were scrambling to get the right lineup.

But I think right now BetUS I’m seeing minus two and a half minus 120 and that is a big distinction which we’ll get to in a minute. Because guys, I think there’s some disagreement here on this game, which is what I love because we’re probably going to disagree at some point throughout the year, but I will give Steve the first crack because I have a very different view of this game as two of you and I think I know why you guys like Chicago, but I want to hear it directly from the Bear’s mouth themselves. So Steve, I’ll give you a chance to go first here and tell me why the Bears are going to cover this number.

Steve Fezzik:

Yeah, we’re only one third of the way through the schedule, so I’m going to pick up the pace here. This is a no-brainer. Tampa Bay won, a phony win. They got outplayed in the stats. I’m not upgrading them. So did the Bears. They were favored in this game. So if you wanted to bet against the Bears, you should have took in Tampa plus one and a half last week because now did the Bears, are we going to downgrade them five points for their bad performance? No. Are we going to downgrade them? Yes. Should this line be Tampa minus one? Sure. Should it be three? Of course not. Now it’s split between two and a half and three and I would not be eager to bet the Bears who look so bad at two and a half but at three absolutely, it’s a play for me.

Las Vegas Chris:

Yeah, I agree. It’s a situation where Tampa Bay was fortunate and Chicago isn’t as bad as they looked. I think that they’ll get a little bit more on track after game one and it’s just a situational take the points type situation with the winless team coming in. It’s another game that I like under in the first half. I think that they’ll be feeling each other out a little bit, off to a slow start and that number is still good under 20 and a half.

Jared Smith:

Possible that we are just grossly undervaluing the Bucs and grossly overvaluing the Bears coming in and we haven’t moved off those numbers enough yet. Is that possible? Any one of you.

Steve Fezzik:

Oh, anything’s possible, of course. I mean, I’m not saying it’s improbable either. The Bears with their cluster injuries on their O-line, they could be a four to five win team. Heck, they only won three last year. It’s possible. I don’t think it’s possible, the Bucs are good, it’s possible the Bears are quite bad.

Jared Smith:

Yeah, I think I agree with the first part of your sentiment. So the Bucs motivation is everything. I wasn’t expecting them to be as fiery as they were and everything I’m hearing from them this week is they heard all the noise in training camp that they’re going to stink because Brady’s gone and blah, blah, blah. Everyone’s picking against us and listen, I know they weren’t expected to win that game but they did. Now they get a home game against arguably the worst quarterback in the league. And I’ll be honest, when I watched Justin Fields play, he had no idea what was going on back there on Sunday.

He has not taken that step forward, at least with the completion percentage over expected. And I think, listen, I think this Bucs offense, on the road, I know again, I know some of the numbers didn’t look great but man did they meet the plays when they needed to. Baker right now he looks like he’s got things buttoned up with that offense. So I’ll take a crack at the two and a half, but again, the distinction here, Fez, the two and a half minus 20 instead of the three minus 10 is a huge distinction. Tell me why.

Steve Fezzik:

Yeah, so going on or off the three is worth just under 20 cents. I have it at like 18 and a half cents. Call it rounded to 20 cents. So if you have to make a choice and minus three even money would be the same as minus two and a half, lay $1.20, 20 cent difference. So don’t buy a half point, the books are going to charge you 25 cents for that. So don’t be buying it if they charge you the 25 cents and just comparison shop for your best number recognizing it’s worth 20 cents approximately.

Jared Smith:

So my official play for this game is Tampa Bay minus two and a half minus 120. I know we don’t take units into account but this line moved and I would not bet three, there are plenty of two and a half’s available and that should including a BetUS. So that should be the play for this game where Chris and Fez are both taking three points with the Bears. Chris also likes the first half under at 20 and a half. All right, let’s move on. Raiders and Bills, this look ahead was nine, nine and a half. Buffalo a big favorite. We saw a little bit of fluctuation but still kind of hovering right around there. Total open 47 and a half. Not much movement there. So we got a short week for Buffalo coming off a home divisional road loss and they’re healthy, which is good.

The Raiders are not healthy. Chandler Jones, his status, mental health issues, not sure. And then you’ve got Jakobi Meyers off the concussion. He was the team’s leading receiver on Sunday, so that could be a big injury if he doesn’t play. Guys, I think it’s really tough and I don’t see any official plays in this game so I won’t get too much into the analysis, but I think it’s really tough to lay double digits with a quarterback that just turned it over four times and I have serious, serious question marks about Josh Allen’s decision making. The Raiders look good, right? They went on the road, they got to win. Maybe Jimmy Garoppolo a little bit better than expected, but to me Josh Allen laying 10 points with him right now is just a really tough ask.

Steve Fezzik:

Yeah, I made it the game seven and a half. So by the way, I would never ever bet a plus nine and a half, ever, until unless you told me the teams are about to kick off, you got to wager it or you’re not going to have action. Asymmetric risk, who cares if it goes down to nine plus nine and plus nine are the same and you could catch a plus 10 if you like the Raiders. I don’t like the spot for the Raiders off an upset win and now travel all the way to Buffalo, who needs the game like Blood because they oh and one, I pass.

Jared Smith:

Chris, this is a weird one, right? Bill’s short week, tough to cap.

Las Vegas Chris:

The Raiders came away with the win but it really wasn’t as impressive as it looked. It was a messed up game with Denver and then obviously we know what we saw in Buffalo and that was ridiculous. Buffalo is trying out their new offense with the two tight ends. They were the least used formation last year in the NFL and they were by far the most used formation and it didn’t seem to work out well for them. So did they stick with that? Did they go back to what they were doing? And if you look back on previous years, some way somehow the Raiders always seemed to go east coast early in the season and in a bad situation and somehow they just show up.

I know I was eliminated in a Survivor two years ago and they beat Pittsburgh outright as a touchdown underdog and I’m not expecting that this year, but Garoppolo is so underrated he covers again, I mentioned that he’s 57% lifetime against the spread, nobody likes this guy. They can play a little bit, but I think Buffalo’s going to have a much easier time on defense and I’m not sure about the Raiders keeping up. So sitting this one out.

Jared Smith:

Yeah, that was my gold star of the week. I nailed that Raiders game, Raiders dog in the under. I thought Jimmy Garoppolo played really well. Again, the numbers, the completion percentage over expected was solid. He was in the top five of efficiency. The defense for Vegas is solid. Maxx Crosby is a stud, six pressures, he had a sack for [inaudible 00:44:10] on Russell Wilson and their linebackers coming on too. Divine Deablo had a really good game. Second highest PFF grade of any defender for the Raiders. So I think this Raiders defense might be slightly better than we expect and if they get Chandler Jones back, maybe that turns them into more of a defensive minded team. I don’t trust Jimmy long-term, but the cover 10, if you get 10 here in this game, I might look to the Raiders, but that’s the only lean. Either of us have no official plays in this game, let’s move on.

Chiefs and Jaguars, probably the game of the week, right? Kansas City, look ahead here was three. We saw a slight move towards the home dog after the chief’s loss, but then we saw it quickly get gobbled right back up to that key [inaudible 00:44:48] number of three total open 52, slight move to that key of 51. So just a little money to the under. Travis Kelce back at practice this week. He’s probably going to play. You got Chris Jones, he’s back, signed the one-year deal, he’s going to play. I’m guessing guys. I’m guessing as only I have a play on this game. So I’ll start with you Steve. I’m guessing both of those moves, Kelce and Jones both baked into the number this week or do you think maybe we see Kelce move off three with their star tight end and star defensive tackle back in the lineup?

Las Vegas Chris:

It up to three and a half now.

Jared Smith:

It is up to three and a half.

Steve Fezzik:

It’s already happened and it’d probably go to four. I bet the look and I took Jacksonville three and a half and it’s the perfect storm against me, where both these guys for Kansas City are back. Jacksonville got a win and Kansas City lost. So I got the better oh and one team against the one and oh straight up team. If you’re going to bet this, it’s only going higher. So I have a bad bet in Jacksonville, I just got rid of it and laid three a little while ago.

Jared Smith:

Chris, is it a complete non-play at three and a half for you or is three and a half still offer any value?

Las Vegas Chris:

You know what, I sat and I looked at that Kansas City sitting there at two, two and a half and it’s my job to bet numbers so I am in the penalty box for not taking it. I knew it would hit three and that’s a good play, two to three, there’s things you can do with it and I just sat there and looked at it. There was something off with Kansas City last week and I’m not entirely buying. I feel like there’s a last season hangover with them that kind of rubbed me the wrong way. But Jacksonville’s just getting crushed. They’ve got key injuries on that offensive line. I don’t know how they’re going to handle that. And it looks like Kelce is going to probably come back. We get Jones back. We’re obviously going to get a maximum effort by the Chiefs after the loss. I can’t see a way I’m getting involved in this game at all, so it’s just too dangerous.

Jared Smith:

Steve, would you play three minus 20 or minus 125? Where’s the cutoff for three there for you?

Steve Fezzik:

Well, I would, but you can’t because it’s gone. It’s minus three and a half, lay a $1.10, that’s like laying minus three lay 30, which is like if you can get a money line at better than minus 180, which you can, pulling back the curtain I’m actually betting this right now, minus 175 on the money line. I think it’s going to be scalpable at post. So I’m going to lay the 175 right now during the show.

Jared Smith:

And I’m seeing a 170 out there here in town. So I think there’s some opportunity with the Chiefs. It looks like that number’s going to move higher. I put in three and then it moved to three and a half. As we’re doing the show, I gave myself the good number with Tampa Bay. I’ll give myself the bad number here because let’s be honest, you make bets, the lines move and I don’t want to give something to you live on the show that you can’t go bet right now at BetUS. So I will continue with my Kansas City. I’ll grade this at minus three and a half, I’ll probably bet the money line on my own. But I will grade this Kansas City minus three and a half as the line moves during the show off the Travis Kelce news. I’m just curious what the narrative of this Chief’s team, how different it would be this week if Kadarius Toney didn’t play the worst game of his life, but man, we might be staring at an oh and two Chiefs team.

I mean, it’s very possible they go down and struggle again this week. Jacksonville pulls out a win and then we have a very different vibe of the Kansas City Chiefs as we move forward if they do not get off the snide this week and get a win. All right, let’s move forward to our final early window game on Sunday. It’s the Ravens and the Bengals. Look ahead here with Cincinnati minus three and a half. We talked about this last week. The exact scenario played out exactly as I thought it would and if you played it right, you’re sitting pretty right now because it reopened at three after the Bengals lost and the Ravens won. And then we saw the initial buyback right towards Cincinnati back to three and a half. So if you were savvy and you listened to us last week, you got in at Baltimore plus three and a half, and then right when the line reopened at three, you got two winning tickets in your back pocket.

Baltimore plus three and a half, Cincinnati minus three. But guys, those numbers are not available. Now you’ve got to look at the three and a half and you’ve got to look at that total sitting at 46. The Ravens are the most injured team in the NFL already. JK Dobbins out, Marcus Williams out, Marlon Humphrey questionable, offensive line, Ronnie Stanley, Tyler Linderbaum trending down, disaster on the Ravens offense and their defense ain’t looking too hot either. All three of us have a play on this game that is kind of along those lines. Chris, I will start with you because yours is in the first half.

Las Vegas Chris:

Well boy, this is the second year in a row I had such high hopes for the Ravens and it’s amazing they can’t make it through game one without losing four of their top 10 players. So we’re going to have to see what transpires on that. Obviously you’re never as bad as you look and never as good as you look, and Cincinnati looked horrid. They looked so bad, you got to wonder about dinging them a little bit. But Burrow didn’t play the preseason. Lots of rust in that lineup. I expect a better effort from Cincinnati this week and Baltimore still has a lot of question marks, so I don’t want to get involved in this side. This is a very strong situational play for the Bengals and I can’t support it for a variety of reasons. So I want to set that part up. But what I can support is that I think it’s going to be a closely played game. Again, another one of those first half unders. I think that number is 23 and I think that that’s the best way for me to attack this game.

Steve Fezzik:

And I concur with lower scoring. So I gave that out, I did give it out to my clients and someone said, “You know you’re going up against this formidable pro,” I’ll call them Ziz X, “Ziz X is on the over.” And I’m like, “Last time I checked, I’ve seen Ziz X accounts. I didn’t see Ziz X bet over 46 and a half. He may have bet over 44 and a half. He didn’t bet over 46 and [inaudible 00:51:05].” So obviously 45’s a key number. We should know we played the New England total under 45 and pushed on it with the 24 21 being the most common of the pushes, but north of 45, I got to tell you, I don’t think this Bengal offense going to be fixed all of a sudden, and I think this Baltimore, often Zay Flowers is awesome. I think they’re going to struggle throughout September with this conversion. So like Chris says, low scoring, first half, 10, 10, Bengals find a way to win the game and it stays under.

Jared Smith:

This is absolute stone-cold under for me. Joe Burrow’s completion percentage over expected was the lowest of any quarterback last week. That is mind-boggling to me. 18% under expected. I think the Bengals defensive secondary will be up for the task of guarding Zay Flowers, Awuzie is back and you got Dax Hill and Taylor Britt back there that played pretty well against a pretty good bright, listen, I thought the Browns showed okay, I know Watson still looks a little shaky, but the rest of that team is really solid and I thought that game was going to be a lot closer than it was and it was not. And the Browns really just kind of put the pedal down and just left the Bengals in the dust. So yeah, I think if you can get a three with Cincinnati, bet it, you’re not going to find one, but to me the under 46 and a half, I saw some 46 and a half’s out there, for the show we’ll grade it at 46 because that’s the BetUS line here at the time of publication.

But we are consensus across the board, unders for myself, for Steve and for Las Vegas Chris. All right, let’s move on to the late window, Giants and Cardinals. Look at here was Giants minus five and a half. We saw a slight move towards the home dog, but now we’re already back to five and a half and I already saw trending towards six. That’s where we’re kind of seeing the Arizona buyback in the market is Cardinals plus six. Total opened at 38, we saw a move up towards the over, we’re sitting at 40 currently, and I’ll be honest guys, I watched this Giants game on Sunday. I turned it off at halftime because it was really ugly, but then after we hear about the offensive line injuries, left tackle Andrew Thomas and the backup left tackle Matt Peart are both questionable on this game and on the other side you got Evan Neil, who’s just a disaster, gave up eight pressures in a sack.

So left tackle, starter backup injured, right tackle ineffective, but can Arizona take advantage of that is the big question. None of us have any plays for this game, but I will mention that I thought Joshua Dobbs played slightly better than expected, and I think that Arizona defense was pretty feisty. Any chance here that the Cardinals compete at home as an underdog? Steve, I’ll start with you.

Steve Fezzik:

Well, they can compete. They’re not going to win a game all year long because I’ve got them to be the lowest win total team in the NFL plus 250. It’d be interesting if we can win Survivor by just going against Arizona and every single one of their games all year long. And the Giants, they’re in a good spot, right? You lose 40 to nothing and now you’re the favorite, you certainly should get their best effort, but the Giants obviously much worse than we expected and my power ratings only make this game four, there are better opportunities to invest our money. I pass.

Jared Smith:

I agree.

Las Vegas Chris:

Yeah, I pretty much agree that there are some situational data history results that strongly support the Giants in this situation. Some sharp people moved that line as soon as it hit four and pounded it up. I’m not so sure it wouldn’t have hit three and a half before doing that, but I’m not interested in getting behind the Giants needing basically a touchdown to win the game. There’s also another interesting stat in the favor of Arizona. That’s 69% when you have two winless teams facing each other, the dog is 69%. That’s a pretty darn strong trend over 67 games. So I don’t know what to make of that game. I think both teams are going to come to play. I don’t want any part of it. Let’s just watch.

Jared Smith:

Love that. That’s that by the way. Again, I’ll give it to you one more time. Winless teams, the underdog, 69% cover rate when winless teams play each other. And again, that’s a pretty big sample over a pretty big stretch of times. That is a really good nugget there from Chris. If you do want to play this game, that is the side to look to. Clearly the trend pointing in Arizona’s favor despite the Giants coming off of what was maybe one of the biggest-

Las Vegas Chris:

The Giants do have a lot of trends on there, a lot of 264, 64% trends in their favor.

Jared Smith:

So it balances out a little bit.

Las Vegas Chris:

They’re bucking heads.

Jared Smith:

Yeah, I think this is the perfect layoff game. I think the next game’s also a layoff game, especially after the move and the movement in the 9ers Rams game is to me one of the more impactful moves of the week because you had both side and total move through key numbers. So look at here with San Francisco minus six, Rams look good on Sunday, right? They won, they went on the road, they beat Seattle. Yeah, now we reopen eight. Oh my goodness gracious. Through a key number of seven despite the fact that the Rams won, I think a lot of that was pro San Francisco, obviously with how good they look. Total another big move, open 42 and a half, see it shoot up right through that key number of 44. Now we’re sitting 44 and a half, neither team with any significant injuries to report.

So guys, I think the spread move, obviously pro San Francisco, the Rams again, were positive as well, but the total move through that key of 44, I think that’s where you see, okay, well the Rams offense might be a lot better than expected considering how good Nacua and Atwell looked at receiver for the Rams on Sunday to combine for 238 yards. The real question here is neither of us have any plays of this game. So I’ll start with you Steve. Do we upgrade the Rams and Matthew Stanford after what we saw last week or is that just bad Seattle? It’s a one week random data point and we’re right back to what we expected by the Rams, which was a really poor offense.

Steve Fezzik:

Yeah, we need to upgrade the Rams significantly because it’s not just that they won by 17, I mean Tampa won, but Tampa got outsteaded, the Rams clobbered Seattle on both sides of the ball. The concern was never that the Rams offense in September was going to be bad, we were worried they’re a fragile team, I guess after they lost Cooper Cup maybe somewhat, but their defense was supposed to be absolutely atrocious. Who are these guys playing on defense and they played very well? Having said all this, so the line during the summer was five, now you get an eight and you could make the case the Rams were one of the biggest surprises of week one. Now yeah, the 49ers equally outperformed, but if that’s the case, why is this line eight and not back to where five was? I hate going against the 9ers because I have them rate as my number one team right now, so am I going to make money fading the best team in the NFL? Probably not but gun to my head, free pick if I had to give it, I’d take Rams.

Jared Smith:

Chris, any value on the home dog here?

Las Vegas Chris:

Well, I wasn’t surprised at the Rams showed up. I thought they were going to win the game outright very easily before they announced Cup out and I still thought that they had a shot, just very, very easily dismissed. Everybody just expected them to lay down and that all these other players couldn’t play. So it’s a tough situation though because I think what we did discover though is who’s the best quarterback in the NFC? I mean, do you really think Hertz is the best quarterback in the NFC or is it healthy Stafford the best quarterback in the NFC right now?

Jared Smith:

What if it’s Brock Purdy?

Steve Fezzik:

You know what? I got to chime in. It’s not close. Hertz is clearly, he’s clearly the best quarterback. Not close.

Las Vegas Chris:

Do you think so?

Steve Fezzik:

Yeah.

Jared Smith:

I think Stafford’s longevity is what gives you hope that he can play better because he can figure things out, but physically Hertz is the best, no doubt.

Las Vegas Chris:

You take a look at Stanford’s third down conversions and none of them were short. They were like, I think he was like eight out of 12 or something and they were all long distance and he was just whipping them in right on target. He’s reborn. So I realize Hertz is dangerous but I think it’s at least debatable is my only point. San Francisco and another situation, you’re never as good as you look and boy they looked unstoppable and I cannot believe Purdy just came in and they’ve got that receiver who I didn’t even know his name coming in before the game, quite frankly-

Jared Smith:

Nacua.

Las Vegas Chris:

Whatever, it’s just-

Jared Smith:

With some respect on Puka Nacua.

Las Vegas Chris:

But I cannot endorse, I cannot believe San Francisco is laying eight at the Rams, but I still don’t have a bet on the Rams. I need to process more of this game. I am scared. I have to admit I’m scared of San Francisco and I’m scared of the Rams defense a little bit because you have a domino effect of being able to judge teams, when you have one of the teams playing such a disaster of expectations. With Seattle, we don’t learn anything from the Rams and the Seattle played as poorly as they did and they had the injuries that they had. So it’s more than likely going to be a sit out, but I would definitely take the Rams if I have to take something.

Jared Smith:

One more note. This is not as much as it’s listed as a home game for the Rams, this is not a home game for the Rams. There will be more red in the stands at SoFi Stadium than blue and yellow. So any home field advantage for the Rams I think is completely eradicated. This is more like a neutral site game if anything trending towards a San Francisco home game. I think that was the biggest surprise to me on Sunday. Not that the 9ers played well in one because they’ve got the best roster in the NFL. It’s how efficient Brock Purdy looked with Brandon Aiyuk and they didn’t even really need Deebo Samuel. It was just Christian McCaffrey left, right and center and then Brandon Aiyuk just kind of slicing holes in the defense and that was a very good Pittsburgh defense and they did not offer a lot of resistance. To a 9ers offense that was a little bit more ground and pound last year, but maybe they’re a little more spread it out if Purdy can throw it and if they’ve got Aiyuk out there, this is a very interesting game.

I think the over is the only way I would bet this game, but once it moved through that key number of 44, I think I would stay away. But 9ers and Rams, no plays for us in this game with a lot of movement through a bunch of key numbers. All right, moving on to the heartbreak of the week. We have not talked at all about my New York Jets yet. That’s because all there is to talk about is pain. This line, look ahead was Dallas minus three, yeah, it ain’t Dallas minus three anymore. That was before the Aaron Rodgers injury, but even before the game Monday night, before Rodgers got hurt, we already saw a little bit of movement off of three, towards three and a half with Dallas.

Then of course the big move, the injury to Rodger is now we’re seeing this line push towards double digits. The total dropped about a touchdown as well. We saw an open of 46 and a half, now we’re seeing it hover between 39 and 40. Cowboys are dealing with some injuries too, so I don’t want to push that to the side. But guys, we got some great questions in the chat and of course Steve and I talked about this all fair, just how much is Aaron Rodgers worth on a point spread? The market right now is telling us about a touchdown. Steve, do you think that’s a fair assessment?

Steve Fezzik:

Five points is my number. The consensus, they asked a bunch of experts and they came up with 5.75, anywhere from six and a half to only three and a half. Some of my number’s not on an island, where I have Rodgers one point better than an average quarterback. So I had them the seventh-best quarterback in the league. By the way, I have Stafford 10th, Hertz fifth. How good is Wilson? I have him as a minus four versus an average starting quarterback. A typical backup quarterback’s minus three and a half. So Wilson’s worse than an average quarterback by a little bit. Difference is five points. What does that equate to for the Jets futures? Well, there’s unfortunately 16 games left in the season. That’s 80 points, as it turns out, the mass says every 35 points, I know it seems like a big number is worth an extra win.

So that’s a little more than, that’s like 2.3 wins that we have to take away from the Jets. So they were supposed to win nine and a half, then they won on Monday night, so they’re supposed to win 10 and take off two and a half wins. They’re supposed to win seven and a half and I think that’s what their season win number approximately should be. I saw some eight and half’s, I’d go under. I’m hearing some people debate, are the Jets still contender? A contender? They’re the worst team in the division.

Jared Smith:

Get out of here.

Steve Fezzik:

Look no further than next week. The Jets are home against New England, the worst team in their division, but the Jets at home, they’re the underdog. Oh, correction. Second-worst team, New England. The Jets are clearly the worst team in the east. The Jets can talk about how they’re happy with Wilson, by week three they’re going to be calling an oh and three Minnesota team and begging to take Kirk Cousins and his bloated contract off their hands. No play on the game.

Jared Smith:

Chris, make me less sad about my Jets. Please say something nice.

Las Vegas Chris:

Oh well, come on, that defense is very, very good. That defense has the power to score points and I think that that kind of contributes a little bit and narrows the gap between the quarterbacks. Wilson was probably the more mobile of the two quarterbacks. So that narrows the gap between quarterbacks a little bit. He was more familiar with the system, more familiar with the players. I don’t think, and we never saw Aaron settle in with the Jets, so how can you sit there and you don’t know whether there would’ve been a long adjustment period with Rodgers or not. He was getting decimated in the couple plays beforehand. He was already pouting about getting pounded. So that might happen to Wilson. There’s just a lot of unknowns with a 40 year old quarterback that wasn’t as mobile as it used to be. So I don’t think the spread is that high.

I like their defense. I think that narrows the gap, though it keeps fewer possessions with the opponents. It gives the Jets more opportunities, unfortunately more opportunities to make mistakes too, but maybe they can work it out. At some point the guy’s got to improve if he can just stay healthy. I like this situation this week and since I have to make a call at this hour, I was waiting for the Jets or the Cowboys to hit 10. I’m not quite so sure it’s going to, so I’m make the rare wager and I’m going to not only buy up to the 10, I’m going to buy through the 10 to 10 and a half from the nine and a half and I’m going to take the Jets.

I think there’s huge situations with how teams play their next game back after 30 and 40 point victories, that works against Dallas. There’s a lot of trends that favor the Jets in this situation and I think the Dallas will potentially relax a little bit after that big win and I think the Jets can keep it close in this situation. So I do like that Jets plus 10 and a half, only if it costs 10 cents for each half point.

Jared Smith:

I’m going to lay it with the Cowboys because I’ve lost all faith in humanity that is the New York Jets. No, the real situation is just this is the worst mismatch perhaps of the entire season. The Jets offensive line against the Cowboys front. The Cowboys have the best, I think tandem and really trio of Russians in the entire NFL. And you saw what they did to a Giants offensive line that I think is better than the Jets offensive line, I honestly do. And I just don’t know how any offensive movement will be generated by the Jets in this game. They’re going to need to score two touchdowns defensively or on special teams if they want to cover this number. And I’m betting against that happening. So I’m laying it nine and a half with Dallas. I’ll be honest, Zach Wilson might not make it through the game either.

I could see multiple quarterbacks being hurt behind this Jets offensive line this year. It graded out as the worst offensive line in the league last week and I don’t think it’s going to improve against Dallas on the road this week. All right, let’s move on to the final early, or excuse me, late window game on Sunday. Commanders and Broncos. Look ahead here was Denver minus three and a half. Didn’t see a ton of movement off of that, despite both of these teams playing interesting games, we’ll call it, on Sunday. We did see a big move on the total though, open 41 and a half, we saw it bet down heavily, now we’re seeing it sit at 38. The big question mark for injury concerns. Chase Young defensive end for Washington questionable, and then on the Bronco side, really tough, their star tight end Greg Dulcich doubtful with a hamstring injury.

Of course Jerry Jeudy also still questionable. So you’ve got cluster injury for Denver at the wide receiver, tight end pass catching position. And then on the other side you’ve got Sam Howell, who man oh man, talk about playing a poor game at home against the bad defense, minus 6.8 completion percentage over expected for Sam Howell and the commander’s offense this week. So I guess the question guys, was it just a bad week for Washington or should we be raising the red flag? Because let’s be honest, it wasn’t an easy win for them against the lowly Cardinals on Sunday. Steve, I’ll start with you here.

Steve Fezzik:

Yeah, I think you nailed it. It was troubling, especially for those like me that took in Survivor Washington and we almost got, it’s like Squid Games, we almost went out on red light, green light in the very first game, but live to survive and I get to take the Bills and Survivor this week. Yes, I’m going to shove with my entries with the Bills on all of them, more than likely. The power rating wise, I make Denver five and a half, but I think you nailed it, Jared. These cluster injuries at receiver probably more significant and I should ding Denver. I probably have them rated too high. I’m passing.

Jared Smith:

Chris, anything intrigue you here with this game?

Las Vegas Chris:

We saw some flashes of nice play from Wilson, but then we just saw, I expected more from that team even though Jeudy wasn’t in and he may be back this week, but both of these teams underperformed, so I don’t want to get behind either of these teams. This is a sit back and watch. I certainly expected Washington to show a little bit more backbone and Denver did some things right, but just felt like they should have played better. I think if I had to pick a side, I would take Denver, but I am not going to have any money on this game.

Jared Smith:

If Sam Howell could barely win at home against Arizona, I do not trust him to go on the road to win at Denver.

Las Vegas Chris:

Same elevation.

Jared Smith:

Yeah, that’s a tough spot I think for him against the solid defense. Didn’t love the success rate for the Broncos against the Raiders and I think that is the key. But you are right Chris, I noticed the same when I dug into Wilson’s numbers. Minus 6.8 completion percentage over expected, I don’t love that. Or excuse me, the air yards were at the bottom of the barrel. Sam Howell’s completion percentage was low, but Russell Wilson actually put some nice drives together, it’s just they couldn’t finish them off and it was Check Down Charlie. So I don’t know how much of an offensive explosion we’re going to see unless Jeudy comes back this week and now you get Dulcich out. So I’m going to bet the under in this game and hope the line movement was right. I know I’m betting a bad number because this line opened at 41, but I’ll be honest, I could see this game being ten seven, I honestly could.

I could see it being 12 to nine, all field goals because in the red zone, neither of these teams can do much of anything. So I will be the only person making an official wager of this game. I’ll bet the under 38 and a half Commanders and Broncos. All right, primetime games, Dolphins, Pats, really fascinating game here. Obviously divisional matchup. The look ahead was pretty much where we’re sitting now. It was two, we moved to two and a half, then back to two. We’ve seen slight fluctuation, but everything under that key number of three, total open 45, slight move up to 46 and a half. The big injury to watch here, as I mentioned in the Chargers game segment was Terron Armstead who did not play in that game, but still somehow two have remained upright the entire game, did not take a sack, despite Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack on the other end rushing him and no left tackle Terron Armstead, we still saw two stay clean.

That is wildly surprising to me. Patriots cluster injury at offensive line, which is very important. Both starting guards, Strange and Onwenu are questionable and that is important because the Pats already struggled to defend or to block the Eagle’s defenders on Sunday giving up a 46% pressure rate, which was top five in the NFL. Both of you are looking at a play in this game. Chris, I’ll start with you because you’re bending the first half.

Las Vegas Chris:

Yeah, this is the same situation. This is an important divisional game. I expect them to want to settle in a little bit. I think the New England defense is a hell of a lot better than the defense Miami saw last week, but Tua was just simply amazing last week. Geez. I mean, the way that he got away from pressure and the BBs that he throws his receivers, he’s like skipping rocks almost across the turf there it seems like at times. I just think that the Pats are going to be there to play, I think it’s going to be a more tightly played game. It is going to be a slower starting game, so I like that first half under. I also like the Pats getting plus eight and a half. I’m not teaser crazy this week, so that’s why I wanted to marry it with the Lion’s money line and with an alt line money line type situation-

Jared Smith:

Or a Pats teaser.

Las Vegas Chris:

… or a bad teaser. I was impressed by the Patriots. They beat the crap out of the Eagles after the two turnovers early and they deserve the cover but they didn’t get it. And I think that they’ll come in a hell of a lot more determined this game to not make those same mistakes.

Steve Fezzik:

I think it sets up really well for New England. New England, phony loss to Philly, certainly a phony non cover. Either team could have won and either team could have won in the Miami Charger game and turns out Tua doesn’t play defense. He played fantastic, but it was right there for the Chargers and Herbs and company didn’t get it done. Also, terrible travel spot. I know it doesn’t matter that much early in the year, but Miami, I have to go all the way out to the West Coast. I come back to South Beach, celebrate for a couple of days and go up to New England and lose the game. So I’m teasing New England with Pittsburgh going to take a shot with Pittsburgh again plus eight and a half and another team in a bounce back spot for a teaser.

Jared Smith:

I like the teaser angle this week for sure with New England. I think the New England Atlanta teaser is a really solid look. The one thing I’ll mention to kind of piggyback on Steve’s point about the Patriots being it was a phony loss. So of all the oh and one teams this week, the Patriots have the highest DVOA rating of all of them. So of all the teams that lost on Sunday or Monday or Thursday, the Patriots according to a lot of the analytics, are the best of those teams. And I think that is telling to me that again, even though they lost, they’re still above ranked higher than some teams that actually won on Sunday. And that is always a great way to determine whether or not the point spread tells the full picture. Just the win-loss record doesn’t always do that.

Look at some of that analytical data, it’ll tell you maybe New England played a little bit better than we expected. Mac Jones played a little bit better. He was cleaner in the pocket. That was the bigger takeaway for me was how comfortable he looked in the pocket and how good Kendrick Bourne looked. I was shocked to see how great the Patriot’s offense was passing the ball down the field. The real question is can Belichick devise a scheme that can slow down Tyreek Hill because he chews up man or his zone coverage. So I’m curious how Belichick plays the Tyreek Hill matchup this week because again, to Chris’s point, man, Tua slinging slinging it all over the yard on Sunday and this should be a very fascinating Sunday night game. All right, Monday night doubleheader, we’ll start with the Saints and the Panthers. Look at here was New Orleans minus one and a half.

We’ve seen some steady movement towards the road favorite, it popped through a key number and it got bounced back down, but you got to pay for it if you want to lay three with the Saints. Total open, 42 and a half, slight move down now to 40. Actually I would say a little bit more than slight, Jaycee Horn’s, the big injury concern here for Carolina, their star defensive back doubtful with a hamstringing injury. DJ Chark, the wide receiver for the Panthers also questionable. Saints relatively healthy besides Kendra Miller and Alvin Kamara of course who suspended. So a little bit of a cluster there running back. But overall guys, it does look like despite no plays in this game, it’s pretty strong. I would say New Orleans defense against the Titans on Sunday. But the offense may be still a little something to be desired. Steve, any look for you here in this first of the two Monday night games?

Steve Fezzik:

So I make the game three, but there’s a lesson to be learned from this game, pulling back the curtain, if you will. In a standalone game, all right, it’s not standalone, there’s two Monday night games but in a game where there’s going to be a whole lot of product put out there and the like, you’re never going to get a bargain on the favorite. You’re not going to see a minus two and a half. But wouldn’t surprise me if a plus three and a half doesn’t pop up on a board. Certainly all over the place, on parlay cards. And by the way, parley cards are not always sucker bets. For those who think they are, let me know you can come to Vegas, I’ll get you kicked out of a casino within half an hour where they’ll say they won’t take them from you. But I’m sure I’ll load up on the three and a half on Carolina, but I have no interest whatsoever in playing them plus three.

Jared Smith:

Chris, anything aside the total there?

Las Vegas Chris:

I don’t think plus three either. Steve, I just really worry about the injuries Carolina has. They’re just really piling up at this point. The Saints boy, they deserve that cover in that game, that was a heartbreaking. I kind of have it in my mind that they’re going into this game with a loss, but they actually won so they’re in good shape. But this is a situation where we’re supposed to be on Carolina. There’s so much history with this divisional matchup and the home team underdog, it’s winless and they were in most of the game with Atlanta and there’s something goofy about these Panthers that I don’t want to get behind. I might get involved in a teaser situation, but I’m not looking forward to that one either. But that is pretty, if you could get over 10, 10 and a half, then I’d be comfortable. But I had them plus 10 and a half last week and lost. I used them as front ends as basically as straight bets and they couldn’t cover that. So probably sitting this one out.

Jared Smith:

Yeah, I didn’t like what I saw from Carolina’s offense. Adam Thielen’s yards per route run was minuscule and he’s their number one weapon right now. So I would be shocked if Carolina’s offense just opened up an explosive game against the Saint’s defense. Which Latimore looked good, the front looked good, they shut down Derrick Henry for the most part, I thought the Saints looked pretty buttoned up and you saw that pretty sharp move there from one and a half of the look ahead now where we’re sitting through three basically, I would say 3.25 on New Orleans as a road favorite Monday night football in Charlotte. All right, final game of the week. Maybe the most disappointing team of the week. The Pittsburgh Steelers, they are at home hosting the Cleveland Browns. Look at here was Pittsburgh minus one. Yeah, it ain’t Pittsburgh minus one anymore, not after the egg they laid against the 9ers.

We’re now seeing Cleveland bet up all the way to a two and a half point favor to BetUS. I would be surprised if this got to three. Before we get into any of the actual picks here, that to me is the biggest question is do we see a three at some point with Pittsburgh? Because I’m guessing if we do, that’s the buyback point. The big injury for the Browns is their right tackle Jack Conklin. Pittsburgh’s really banged up on their side of the ball and I think that’s why we’ve seen this line move so considerably. Diontae Johnson doubtful, their right tackle questionable. Cameron Heyward huge in the run game. He’s going to need surgery on his groin. So Nick Chubb might be a good fantasy play for you this week, but it feels like we’re trending towards three, Steve, and I know you’ve got to play in the first half of this game, but before you give that, do you think we get a three before we get to Monday night?

Steve Fezzik:

I don’t think we will. Market update by the way, money pouring on the Dolphins. There’s a game you are going to get your three because it just went up Miami to minus three against New England. So breaking news as we speak, but that one was kind of already at 2.65 and trending higher. This one, there’s some twos still out there in the market and frankly Pittsburgh was favored last week. I get it. Cleveland was really good, but I’d argue Cleveland really wasn’t really good. The Bengals were really bad, if you watch that game, they were just inept completely. Now Pittsburgh was very bad against San Francisco, so fine, you can make Cleveland a one point favorite, but that two and a half being able to tease it absolutely makes sense. And I got to tell you, Pittsburgh, I think they only ran the ball 10 times against the 9ers. I see them being super run heavy even though it’s really hard to run against Cleveland and especially early in the game. I see this being as a very low scoring first half. That’s my play, tease Pittsburgh and first half under 20.

Las Vegas Chris:

And I’ve got that same first half under, same reasons, I don’t know how these guys are going to move the ball on Cleveland. Pittsburgh couldn’t move the ball last week and now they’ve lost a receiver and the running back and a lineman, the quarterback didn’t even look good, that all that preseason charm, gone. Where did it go? I mean, they just fell flat on their back and when they had the injuries develop, San Francisco was just gashing on the run game. And what do the Browns like to do? They like to run the ball. How are they going to stop the Browns from running the ball? So there’s going to be a lot of clock ticking and I think it’s possible, I’m not calling it, but I agree with what Steve said where Cincinnati gave him the game and just really laid an egg.

But I think the Brown showed enough to say that they’re at least decent and they could possibly be better than we thought and that Pittsburgh might be a little overrated. So this is a prime teaser play. I realize it. I don’t have one in, I don’t know why. That’s the only way I’m going to get in this. I can’t get by, I keep on thinking how is Pittsburgh going to stop Cleveland and how is Pittsburgh going to score? I could see an ugly 17 to six win by Cleveland somehow.

Jared Smith:

Good question in the chat. Mark Holmes under 19 and a half, still a play.

Steve Fezzik:

Absolutely not.

Las Vegas Chris:

No, have to have the 20.

Steve Fezzik:

You need to get the key numbers and even though if this plays out, just like Chris said, tick, tick, run the clock, run the clock, tick, tick. It can be seven to three with five minutes to play and the team’s thriving and you’re like, “Oh God.” They get a touchdown, someone gets that field goal at the end of the half and even though under 20 you win or you push, under 19 and a half, we’re gambling. We don’t want to gamble, we want to have fun. Well you know what? Winning is fun. Under 20 is fun, under 19 and a half is stressful. No thank you.

Las Vegas Chris:

It is.

Jared Smith:

Winning is very fun. You know what’s also fun? Winning a free ticket into our tough truck giveaway. And it is that time of the show where I reveal to you who has the golden ticket. I have not heard yet from our powers that be. So here we go. We’re just going to reveal it live on the show. Don’t we get a little golden little flash from someone? Does it come up on the… Oh.

Las Vegas Chris:

You get the gold star.

Jared Smith:

I get a gold star today. So if you chose me as the golden ticket holder, you are perhaps going to win an entry into our free truck giveaway. So congratulations to you. I think there’s a few people that did guess me. And then after our bets recap, I will reveal who was the winner. But right now let’s check out all of our picks from the show. Of course a little fluctuation because we’ve also been betting live during the show, so this might not entail all of the bets that we have. Now, I know for me personally, I have a spreadsheet that you can look at and you can see exactly what I’m betting. Most of these, if not all of them will be on there verbatim.

Of course there’s going to be some fluctuations because we’re changing numbers on the fly. For example, Tampa Bay will not be a three, it’ll be a two and a half. And for instance, if I can’t get a three with Kansas City, I’m probably not going to bet it. Steve, I’ll start with you. Any clarifications you’d like to make on your picks as we move forward here?

Steve Fezzik:

And the bet you asked people, they liked the book to win. So Jared, they gave you Tampa Bay minus three and they gave me plus two. So that’s going to work out very well for them.

Jared Smith:

Yeah, that’s a bad look for both of us, huh?

Steve Fezzik:

Yeah, so Tampa Bay minus two and a half minus, I think we said minus 15 and I’m sorry, minus 120 and then Chicago should be plus three. Lay a $1.15 for me. Yes.

Jared Smith:

I noticed a lot of first half unders this week. Was that a specific strategy or is that just how the card kind of played out?

Steve Fezzik:

Whenever a total on a game is 39 and a half. First half under 20 is superior.

Jared Smith:

Chris, agree with that sentiment?

Las Vegas Chris:

Yeah, it’s a week one, week two thing, that’s pretty consistent as well. And I have the Jets on there, it’s not written, but.

Jared Smith:

Yes, he’s taking the Jets 10 and a half. I’m laying it with the Cowboys, hopefully the Cowboys win by 10. And I’ll be honest, the way that Buck Bears game’s playing out, I think three is looking like a pretty good landing spot there. So make sure you shop around for that two and a half on Tampa Bay. All right, time to reveal who is the winner of our free entry into the tough truck giveaway. It is Shawn Michael, which is one of my favorite wrestlers of all time. Shawn Michaels, probably no relation but Shawn Michael, congratulations, you get a free entry. I think you have to DMM BetUS and they will get you that entry or maybe they’ll just add it to your account. But communicate with the fine folks over at BetUS and they will take care of you.

Guys, this has been a blast and again, the goal is 90 minutes. We are under that time limit right now, so we have exceeded odds maker expectations. I will give you all a parting shot. Before we say farewell, Steve, what are you most excited? Which game are you most excited to watch this weekend?

Steve Fezzik:

You know what, I’m going to go globally. I’m excited to watch whether the offense is going to pick up. So I’ve seen this story before. The NFL knows with all this fantasy football that production is everything and people want touchdowns and what we got was a lot of rain and a lot of fuel goals other than the Miami shootout against the Chargers. It would not surprise me if we see an emphasis on pass interference and defensive holding and the like to promote some more scoring in the NFL this week.

Las Vegas Chris:

Yeah, I think you’re going to see an uptick in the offensive of efficiencies also combined with that, we had that slow start last week. A lot of the games last week looked like a preseason game, quite frankly for half the game. For me, obviously the Lions game, I think that that’s the one I’m most interested in because I’m a homer, but there’s a handful of good games. I think the Vikings Philadelphia game is going to be interesting.

Jared Smith:

Yeah, that was my biggest takeaway too. So the numbers say it was the lowest EPA per play from the quarterback position in the last 20 years in week one, so really bad. Only 196 passing yards per game down from 218 last year in week one. And the sac rate was through the roof, over a percent higher year over year from week one in 2022 compared to week one this week. So you get a lot of rookie quarterbacks, a lot of new starting quarterbacks. It did look like preseason week four, but I think this week, especially as we move forward, week three, week four, week five, we’ll start to see a lot more of that passing rate improve and hopefully some of the offenses but not in the game, we bet the under end. All right, for Steve Fezzik and Las Vegas Chris, I’m Jared Smith. We appreciate you watching the 2023 NFL Show powered by BetUS here in week two. We’ll catch you next week.

Las Vegas Chris:

Good luck everyone.