NFL Week 5 Picks and Predictions | Best NFL Odds, Latest News & Free Picks

Chris Farley:

Yeah, another day, another dollar. Would like to hit over 50% on one of these shows. I had a great week last week. I guess I’m picking the wrong things to say on the show, so let’s get going with that. TJ, what do you say?

TJ Rives:

Yes, no doubt. We’re looking forward to that. Scott Kellen is back. I am told, is this confirmed? You were on the islands, you were in Hawaii and you even got the Hawaiian festive shirt to show for it here, back on the BetUS NFL Show, good to have you back my friend.

Scott Kellen:

Thank you very much TJ. Great to be back and I had a losing week last week, so it was great to be off. I think Las Vegas, Chris might have been on, I assume maybe he won, so we’re doing this right so far, so.

TJ Rives:

No doubt. And by the way, we should make mention that Scott, he hasn’t had enough of global travel. You are headed out after we’re done as we’re doing the show live on Thursday to where?

Scott Kellen:

We’re going to London. See the Packers and Giants. Can’t wait. It’ll be fun.

TJ Rives:

So it’s interesting that, that’s going to be some atmosphere. The Packers have never played in an international game in the UK. They are the last NFL team that has not yet dipped their toe into that. And of course, the Giants are Chris’s team. They’re off to a three in one start. This is the first time when we get to that game that we have two teams with a winning record ever in an international series game in the UK. There may have been one in the Mexico game or in the Toronto games that they played, but in the UK games, they’ve not had two teams with a winning record, but they’ve got it with the Giants and the Packers this week. So we’re ready to talk about all the games this week. I know you guys are going to want to hear about Cowboys, Rams, Bengals, Ravens, et cetera.

We’ll get to all of those, including, can my Buccaneers rebound in the division with the Atlanta Falcons. We’ll discuss it all. First though, let’s take a look at our records right now for the show as we get ready for the fifth weekend here. You can see we are right at the 500 mark. Again for Chris and Scott, we’ve had some success. For example, last week Brad Thomas was with us on the show and he had a 500 week, I believe at three three and one. Las Vegas, Chris was here with a six and two week. So right now we’ve been okay. We pledged to be better on the show starting today, giving you handicapping advice. I can tell you, looking at the sheet, we have got a bevy, a bevy of picks from our guys. The handicappers will be going on the record left and right here on the program today.

With that in mind, let’s get to it right away, shall we guys? And game number one’s going to be a Thursday night game involving the Denver Broncos, more national TV for a Broncos team whose defense should maybe be kept away from TV, hide the women and children with how their offense has not produced. Anyway, they’re hosting Indianapolis. This is Thursday night football. It is game number one, the Broncos, the routine three point home favorite that we see a lot in the NFL. The number is 42. Chris Farley, let’s begin with you with what you like here and why in this matchup?

Chris Farley:

Yeah, I got to go aggressive right out the gate here and go with a parlay. I don’t trust the Broncos to cover any lines these days, but they are at home, we saw the way they played against San Francisco a few weeks ago. Now, I kind of blame the conservative play calling of Shanahan in that game for a lot of what happened there too. But I think the Denver Bronco’s defense, especially at home, it can really bring it. We’re going to see a lot of that this year. And what is there to like on both ends about these offenses? I mean, at this point I think we can say in Indianapolis, Colts on offense are just, they’re not very good. And I know some of the stats aren’t that bad, right? They got some passing yards, right? The passing game. But a lot of it has come from behind points.

Like last week, I get it, the Titans didn’t do much in the second half, but they didn’t have to, they went off 24 to seven and when it mattered they made the right plays. Matt Ryan, when it matters, that offensive line when it matters, I just don’t trust it very much. Denver at home with their defense, their top 10 in a lot of categories that matter, they’re good against the pass, only allowing 5.3 yards per pass, 170 pass yards per game. And if the Colts are going to win this game, I don’t think they’re going to be able to do it on the ground because we know Jonathan Taylor is out of this one.

That Colts offensive line just hasn’t been that great. And with the backup running back, no Jonathan Taylor, I like Denver Broncos to win it straight up and I don’t see where the points are coming from on this one because on both sides the defenses are more mature than their offenses. So I think that there’s not going to be a lot of points, I don’t think it’s going to be a very exciting Thursday night game, but I’ll parlay under 42 and the Broncos to win it straight up.

TJ Rives:

Interesting on this, Scott Kellen, the running backs are an issue for both teams. Javonte Williams the fine second year back out of North Carolina, tore his knee up in Vegas last weekend out for the year, torn ACL. Melvin Gordon can’t hang onto the ball. He’s already got four lost fumbles, either four or five on the season. So Denver has struggled in the run game as well. What do you make of this Thursday night matchup, if not an official play?

Scott Kellen:

No play for me. I’m going to go against Chris a little bit, but one of the reasons I’m not playing this base of my numbers is for a lot of the reasons that Chris said. But my numbers do have this closer to about 45 points. Now, the numbers are based off player ratings and they’re really based off of what I think we thought at the beginning of the year maybe we’d get out of Denver’s offense. And I think that’ll come at some point. So there’s a happy medium in there. I worry a little bit about all the injuries. These two teams just looking, Indies surprise link is, well like Chris said, and maybe some of this is garbage time, but they’re number nine, Indie is, in big pass plays, Denver number six. So both these teams are hitting big pass plays down the field. Surtain has been a phenomenal quarterback for Denver this year. And I don’t know how many receivers really that Indie has to throw to, so I worry a little bit about all that. Denver likes to run the ball.

Indie has been number two against the rush this year in terms of yards per rush. They’ve kind of stuffed the run and we’ll see what that means for Russell Wilson if they have to throw the ball. But I make the number about three, so nothing there. I will say Denver qualifies in a kind of negative system as a favorite coming off a game last week where they allowed quite a few points. So possibly, a lean from that aspect to Indie, but I just don’t like what Indies doing. Having said all that, if you look at the yards per play last week, Indie kind of do… I didn’t get to watch a lot of the Indie Tennessee game, but yards per play wise, they kind of dominated that game, they turned it over twice inside their own territory that Tennessee turned into touchdowns. So maybe that game plays out a little bit differently if they didn’t have the turnovers, but a little bit of a lean to the over just because that’s where my numbers take me. I respect them but I’m not playing it for a lot of the reasons that Chris said.

TJ Rives:

Understood on that. And again for the Broncos, Russell Wilson, does he have any magic left? I mean, we now have a sample size guys, do we not? Through four games where he’s having trouble even with good receivers, Jerry Jeudy back mostly healthy, Courtland Sutton, they’re still having problems and it’s a first year coach, Nathaniel Hackett who’s under fire. So just a quick opinion here before we go on the record one more time with Chris. A quick opinion Chris on Russell Wilson. I know you believe in him tonight at least, to the extent that you’re going with him, but what about Russell Wilson?

Chris Farley:

Yeah, Russell Wilson in primetime games too. Not very good. I think it’s something like three and nine or something like that against the spread. But yeah, I think this game is just going to be won in the red zone. The Broncos are a last place in the NFL, 30% of their red zone possessions have mounted in touchdowns, but the Colts, they allow a lot of touchdowns in the red zone, 80% one of the worst defenses in the NFL on that. So Russell Wilson, he can’t stretch the field the same way, but if he can just make some of these red zone scores happen, right? Get some points on the board early at home, that’s going to put the Colts in a really tough spot to come back in Denver.

TJ Rives:

We’ll see if Surtain locks up Michael Pittman, who is the best receiving weapon for Matt Ryan? Scott, a quick weigh in on Russell Wilson. Are we being too judgmental maybe only four games in or do we have enough sample size to say maybe he’s lost some of what he had in Seattle and they were maybe smart to move on?

Scott Kellen:

It’s interesting, I’m going to go with, it’s too early yet. I will point out, when Green Bay made the coaching change back in 2019, Green Bay won 13 and three that year, but offensively they were an average offense, whatever they were averaging per play that was the same that the competition they were facing. And they’re essentially running a very similar offense, I believe with Nathaniel Hackett there now. So this may take a while. The following year, Rogers was much better offensively. So we’ll see what happens with Russell Wilson. I’d prefer to defer to everything that we’ve seen previous and give him some hope to possibly do something going forward. I just don’t know how quickly it’s going to happen. And like you said, he’s really only on the same page with maybe one receiver right now as well.

TJ Rives:

And again, they did pull out the win with San Francisco with him playing well in the fourth quarter. They were not very good, especially in the second half against the Raiders last week for whatever it’s worth. Chris Farley, however, undaunted, says Denver back at home and he’s got two plays here. He’s got a parlay play with the Denver Broncos and he’s parlaying it here with the underplay of under 42 points for this game tonight, [inaudible 00:09:56] the Thursday night game, if you’re with us live here on Thursday at 01:00 Eastern time, we’ll see what happens with Thursday night football. Can the Colts make something happen on the road? Battle of the horses, the Broncos. Broncos without home field advantage too, loud crowd too, we’ll see if that’s the case. Quick reminder because I had not done so, if you have not as of yet, hit the like button, help us out.

Hit the bell down below here. We’re here Thursdays at 01:00 Eastern Time live. Get in the live chat, you’ll see some comments coming across the screen here from time to time on the certain games that we’re on. We see you in the live chat, keep it up. And again, share the show out, tell more people about it. We’re excited to be here on BetUs, Thursdays previewing all the NFL games, you’re going to get every game today that’s on the court, I promise. We’ll move things along. Kellen’s got a flight to catch, an international flight to catch. Of course, we’re going to get him out of here. I pledge that’s going to happen.

Speaking of international, let’s get to it. The Giants and the Green Bay Packers playing in Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. We saw a wild game last week that Minnesota won on a last second, a last minute field goal for them and a last second field goal that was a double doink no good for the Saints. Will this game be as good? Look at that, Green Bay heftily favored on the BetUS line minus nine, the total is 41. Both handicappers have plays on this. Scott Kellen, let’s begin with you. This game at 09:30 Eastern Time on Sunday morning, US time, that’s 02:30 in the afternoon. London time, 08:30 Central. Adjust the other time zones accordingly. What is that 04:30, 5:00 AM in Hawaii, I think where you just were, whatever the place.

Scott Kellen:

It was 03:30 because I got up and watch the New Orleans game when I was there on Sunday morning.

TJ Rives:

03:30 in the morning in Hawaii.

Scott Kellen:

I can tell you.

TJ Rives:

Adjust the time zones accordingly on that. All right Scott, you have an official, in fact you have a couple of official plays here, what do you like?

Scott Kellen:

I’m going to play the Packers on a teaser here. I would play them up to minus nine, but there’s a caveat at the time that we’re doing the show, I don’t know about some of the injuries situation with Green Bay. Speaking about Jaire Alexander the cornerback and also Amos the safety who went out with a concussion last week. So I would not be wanting to lay nine if either one of those play. So a little concerned about that. But I still feel okay teasing this down as long as we can get it under three. Both these teams actually run the ball pretty well. Neither team actually stops the run very well. So this could be a pretty heavy running game. I just don’t know what you can like about the Giants right now. And obviously, Chris is a Giants fan so I want to get his opinion.

They sit three in one, they could probably be one in three. They’re last in a league in big pass plays, so they do not get the ball down the field. I feel like they’re moving the ball with Daniel Jones’ legs and that that’s really keeping their offense going from time to time. I think Green Bay can probably do a little bit better job of kind of reigning that in a little bit, which will make it harder for the Giants to move the ball. And Green Bay, their offense hasn’t been great but they are, I’m just looking here, number four in the league in big pass plays.

So they’re getting the ball down the field. I feel like their defense is a better defense. I feel pretty good about getting this to under a field goal via a teaser. We’ll talk about the other leg later, so I’m going to tease it, get it under a field goal. My numbers support it. I just think Green Bay’s the better team here and I just don’t know what I really… And just add to that, the Giants, I mean, they have almost no receivers as well. They may get a couple guys back this week, but I just struggle to see how they’re going to move the ball other than possibly running it, because teams are running the ball. I’ll give them that but I’m going to lay it in the teaser with Green Bay.

TJ Rives:

Chris Farley, They are three and one, but they are offensively challenged. Kenny Golladay is also hurt, we don’t know what his status is with this game traveling over to London to be able to play, they already lost Sterling Shepard. They do have Saquon Barkley, what are your thoughts? I think you’ve got an official play too as well here, Chris?

Chris Farley:

Yeah, I do. I really love the under in this game, it’s actually one of my favorite plays this week. And a lot of that is because of what I’ve seen from the Giants defense so far. We all kind of know that the Green Bay defense is really good. I don’t think that they’ve been optimal just yet, they’re still kind of working out some kinks, Jaire Alexander playing or not playing as a big deal this week, but it feels like it should be a big deal, but is it? Because the Giants mean 13 passes from Daniel Jones last week, three passes for 25 yards to their wide receivers. So they don’t even need their wide receivers apparently, I mean that’s at least, a style that they’re going to try to play at, but I don’t think that’s going to work against the Packers. So I mean, I favor the Packers in this game too.

The thing about this though, from an intangible standpoint, Coach Daboll, something is going on here with Coach Daboll and the Giants, he just has them fighting and you especially see that on defense, you got to give some credit to Don “Wink” Martindale in that regard. The players are flying around, they’re not a very talented unit, but they put forth a ton of effort every week and I have to believe that Daboll, he has this team pumped up knowing that they’re huge underdogs in London. The Packers is always kind of a finesse team to me. They’re from Green Bay, so you kind of think that blue collar team, but not really, right? If they get punched in the mouth early, we’ve seen Aaron Rogers, they kind of tremble in some of these situations. I don’t think that’s necessarily going to happen here, but I don’t think they can really pull away in this game.

I think the Giants can make some things happen on the ground, they’re a top five running team so far this year and not against the worst defenses. And the Packers, bottom third of the league in yards allowed per rush, bottom third of the league in rush yards allowed per game, so the Packers know what’s coming, right? The Giants don’t really have a passing game right now, so I wouldn’t favor the Giants in this one, I wouldn’t bet on the Giants in this one. I think a teaser on the Packers is a good move, but I just don’t really see where the offense is going to come on both sides of the ball.

A little wind there coming into London too about 12 miles an hour. That’s not that significant, especially not with Aaron Rogers at quarterback. But again, these Green Bay wide receivers aren’t really impressing me either. They’re not gaining a ton of separation. So I think the Giants can stick around because of their defense, because they’re going to blitz Aaron Rogers a lot. So I think this is going to be a little bit closer than people realize. Would much rather tease the Packers than play the Packers straight up, but I really love the under in this one.

TJ Rives:

All right, let’s get both guys on the record. This is the London game Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. It’s early, Scott Kellen’s got it as part of a tease, teasing down the Packers line. Chris Farley loves the under in this matchup. And again, Daniel Jones a question mark, he’s expected to play but he’s been limited in practice with the ankle injury. Tyrod Taylor even got hurt last week. They may have to go to call Eli off the Manning cask, go to Phil Simms, go to Y.A. Tittle. I don’t know if Y.A. Tittle still living, I shouldn’t throw that name out there on the BetUS NFL Show. They got to go to somebody, maybe here if Daniel Jones’ ankle is not holding up we’ll see what happens in that matchup. All right, let’s move on. Early games in the NFL that are back on the North American continent that includes Seattle and New Orleans.

What to make of this, where the Seahawks come off a wild wind themselves over Detroit last week, 48-45. Put a lot of points on the board with Geno Smith, had to have him, had to have a lot of points because Jared Goff and the Lions kept scoring in the second half. Meanwhile, Jameis Winston, we see him on the picture there. Jameis did not play last week, did not practice midweek here, don’t know his status. Andy Dalton, the veteran played instead of him. Looks like the Saints may be getting Alvin Kamara back. Our number is 46 on this game. There’s no official play. Chris Farley, I’m going to come right back to you. Do you believe in Geno Smith and Seattle? Back to back weeks on the road for them by the way. Saints had to come all the way back from London for whatever that’s worth. Any belief here, Chris, if no official play in Geno in the Seahawks?

Chris Farley:

Yeah. Well, I’ll tell you, this is a really tough game for me, because this feels like a regression game, right? Saints coming back home off another tough loss. Typical of Vikings and Saints game by the way. Some of those penalties in the second half seemed like they were certainly favoring the Vikings. And then the way they missed that field goal at the end, I double doink. That was brutal for Saints fans. But they were in that game at the end, they played well in the second half, Andy Dalton did too. So now they’re coming back home, I feel like this is still a Sean Peyton line. We’re anticipating that the Saints are going to button up and they’re going to take care of business at home, answer the call against the roster in the Seattle Seahawks that just isn’t as talented as the Saints. I mean, that’s pretty obvious.

Plus someone like DK Metcalf, who’s been thriving in the Seattle offense, he doesn’t have quite the match up this week, right? Marshon Lattimore, this is where he thrives against a big body wide receiver like DK, but I think it’s a good setup for the Saints defense. But you have to say, Geno Smith, historic completion percentage so far through four games, he’s not making mistakes, really, it was week two, right? Where everyone was like, “Oh, the Seahawks are the Seahawks,” The 49ers blew them out. But in every other game they look like a formidable team who could at least move the ball and they certainly stretch the field. I mean, yards per pass they’re top five.

So it’s just one of these teams where it’s kind of hard to figure out yet. I want to play on the Saints here and anticipate some regression, but I just think this is a little too much. It was at six earlier this week, I think the line movement dropping down is a little sharper. I have the Seahawks as four and a half point underdogs here on the road. So I have a show a little value on the Seahawks, but at the same time, with such a small sample size, it’s still hard to trust a Seahawks team. Now, let’s face it, on paper, the Saints, especially with Alvin Kamara coming back, which I think he is, the Saints should be able to control a game like this, especially with their defense.

TJ Rives:

Scott Kellen.

Chris Farley:

Yeah, I don’t feel confident in either side.

TJ Rives:

Understood. So no official place. Scott Kellen to you, thoughts here on a second straight road game for Seattle, but again, it’s equalized by New Orleans and Minnesota. Neither one of whom getting a bye week. New Orleans’s got to come back from London and play the game here. Any quick thought if no official play Scott on this one?

Scott Kellen:

Yeah, first thing I’ll say and thank you for reminding me of those past interference calls. Chris, I had a great number under 43 and a half. I’m sitting in my hotel room, which started at 03:30 watching that game, that pass interference was probably about 5:00 AM. I let out a rather loud f-in heimer and then realized, “Ooh, I might be waking people up. It’s very early in the morning here.”

TJ Rives:

We do not want hotel security on the door at 5:00 AM in Hawaii. Yes, that’s a better… Is that still considered late Saturday night game or early Sunday morning game if you’re watching at 03:30 AM live in the local time, what do you consider that? I don’t know. Well, I was on Kauai, so it’s a very quiet island. So I’m going to go with early morning game instead, so.

Early morning Sunday. Okay. All right.

Scott Kellen:

But as far as the game first, I got stuff kind of going both ways here. First of all, Seattle qualifies in a pretty good situation. That’s five and 0 this year, it’s 226 wins, 147 losses over a long period going back. Where if you get two average teams playing basically 500 or less, total’s higher than 44, which we have here, you basically ride the dog if they’re getting three or more points. And that that’s worked to the tune of five and 0 this year. Is New Orleans an average team? Right now, maybe so. So that kind of supports Seattle. My numbers, assuming Kamaro plays, makes New Orleans about a six point favorite and that would actually go up a little bit if Winston and, or Michael Thomas played, which would obviously lean towards New Orleans. So really no opinion for me here. The situation certainly favors Seattle and it’s done well over the years, but the line, especially if we get a couple of these other guys playing, might actually favor New Orleans. So it’s a pass for me.

TJ Rives:

All right, no official play from the handicaps and again, midweek Jameis Winston Limited in practice. Michael Thomas Limited in practice. So we don’t know their statuses for this one. Can Pete Caroll and the Seahawks get another win where early on, a lot of people thought after that opening night win, they might not win again until Halloween. They might now be three and two if they can get this win on Sunday. We’ll see.

Scott Kellen:

I’ll just add one other thing kind of supports New Orleans. Sorry about that. The Saints come in here with the number seven rushing game, at least in terms of yards per rush. Seattle number 28. So again, they get some of these guys back and they can run the ball down their throat. Maybe that would favor New Orleans as well. But again, pass for me.

TJ Rives:

We will see what happens. Again, that is the matchup in the big easy as we move on the BetUs NFL show. Let’s get to a game, of all the big matchups that we have this weekend. This would not be one of them. Houston Texans and the Jacksonville Jaguars. Nonetheless, it is an AFC South Showdown. Look at that. When was the last time the Jaguars were seven and a half point favorites against anybody? They are favorite on the BetUs line over Houston by seven and a half. Played all right at Philadelphia. Got some turnovers against the Eagles and hung in, but the Eagles ended up getting the win and the cover to remain undefeated number is 43 and a half. Again, there’s not an official place. Scott Kellen, I’m going to come right back to you. We’re just going to kind of alternate here. Any thought real quick on this game with Jacksonville seemingly improved, Houston still struggling to find themselves any quick thought here?

Scott Kellen:

Just from a number standpoint, I kind of make the number seven, seven and a half make the total 43. So we’re right there. The only thing I’d really add, Houston, they have a lot of pressure this year, 27th and a league and allowing pressure Jacksonville number nine. So they figured you’d be able to put some pressure on him, but at the end of the day when I look at the numbers, they’re right there. So it’s not going to be a play for me.

TJ Rives:

All right, so a clean pass from him on this again, Chris Farley, The Jaguars behind Trevor Lawrence have put some points on the board. They look devastating in the win over the Chargers a couple of weeks ago then it was a tough ask, wasn’t it to go to Philadelphia, back to back road games and beat the unbeaten eagles. That didn’t happen. Now you’re at home with easier competition. No official play, but a thought here on Jags Texans.

Chris Farley:

Yeah, really tough one here. Throughout the season so far, the Jags are climbing down my power ratings and better and better. I’m like, okay, I have to respect this Jaguars team a little bit more. But if you look at the Houston Texans as like maybe 30, 31, 32 ranked in the NFL, Arthur Jaguars more towards the top tier of NFL teams right now, or are they still the bottom half? I don’t know. I’m kind of in between on the Jaguars because yes, they played nine fantastic quarters against the Chargers and the first quarter against the Eagles, but then regression hit and we kind of saw the Eagles dominate that game. But I will say a lot of turnovers, a lot of fumbles from Trevor Lawrence in that last game and they still almost covered that line. So kind of impressive how the Jaguars have been, no doubt about it. But this is a divisional game. Houston has thrived in this spot against Jacksonville as a dog. So no play for me either. Everything is kind of right where it’s supposed to be in this game. I’d rather just sit back and watch.

TJ Rives:

And again, we’ve got a viewer watching us live on the BetUs NFL show that wants to know can the Jags defense shut down Davis Mills, the Texan’s been able to run the ball with Pierce some in their games so far this year. I don’t know. I don’t know if they have enough and it will be hot in North Florida. It’s an outdoor game. The Texan’s been playing a lot of indoor games. Obviously they play at home indoors, but they also had another game of theirs, I believe also that was indoors as well. So we’ll see what it looks like for Jacksonville in this. Did you guys have a quick thought on whether the Texans can score a little bit? Both of you were kind of nodding along at talking about struggle to score points, especially for Houston, right? Anybody got a thought?

Scott Kellen:

I mean, the only thing I would say, Houston likes to run the ball obviously and they’ve run it okay, but Jacksonville’s been very good against the run, only allow 3.6 yards a rush they’re fifth in a league in defending the run. So I think they’re going to be there to definitely defend the run there and probably put it in Davis Mill’s hands. And he, he’s shown he can do some things once in a while, but I still think Houston will struggle other than, like Chris said, Houston’s kind of owned them. They beat them twice last year. And so we’ll see what comes from that.

TJ Rives:

Different coaching staff with Doug Peterson. And they definitely are fighting harder for him, it seems like at the moment. At this point last year they were looking, how do we get rid of Urban Meyer already in October of last year. So we’ll see on that one. All right, let’s move on. Again, this is an intriguing matchup where the Bills had such a great win last week over the Ravens in Baltimore. Now they’re at home.

The Steelers meanwhile stubbed their toe big time against the Jets at home. The Jets outplayed them, especially in the fourth quarter. And look at that likeness on our screen. It’s the Kenny Pickett era in Pittsburgh. They’ve announced they’re going with him after he replaced Mitch Trubisky during the game last week. And look at the line 14 points. Am I correct? You guys would be able to help keep me straight here. That’s the largest line or one of the largest lines so far this season. Any game is a 14 point line in favor of the Buffalo Bills. The number 46 and a half. No official play here, but Chris Farley we’ll come to you for a quick thought on Buffalo back at home off of a great win for them against a rookie quarterback making his first start. Hello, Kenny Picket.

Chris Farley:

Yeah, I’m, I’m going to talk a lot of intangibles in this one. Kind of forget the X and O’s, Bills are coming off two straight tough weeks, right? South Florida heat and then they rose to the occasion last week in Baltimore. Great comeback in the second half, stifled that Ravens offense. So now they’re going back home and yeah, it’s a juggernaut Bill’s team who at home you would just think they’re going to smash a lot of teams, but probably well documented by now. Everybody knows the Steelers haven’t been this much of an underdog since the merger. I mean the Steelers have just been a pretty good team for a very long time and you better believe Mike Tomlin is using that, right? He’s using that as in even more of a motivational tool for the Steelers to play. They’re all around best game, last year week one, six years of the Steelers were about six and a half point underdogs, I believe one straight up against the Bills.

I don’t think that’s going to happen this time or 14 point dogs. The bills are a fantastic team. They deserve to be a Super Bowl contender. But Kenny Pickett, the thing about him is he kind of has an edge to him. I like his attitude when he goes out there, he has confidence. I think he’s comfortable with this team and even though he had three picks last week, two of those picks were not his fault. Tip balls in the air is trying to make something happen. So he has a lot to learn, but I think we could all be a little surprised here. This could be a pretty competitive game right down to the end. Because the Bills have to figure that they can probably play more conservatively here. I mean, Josh Allen has been killing himself, keeping his team in the game. So now this is a game where maybe, okay, Josh, don’t run as much. Let’s play a little bit more conservatively.

Meanwhile, the Steelers who know they’re not going to the Super Bowl this year might treat this as a really aggressive creative, let’s get out this team type of game. So it sets up for an underdog to cover. I wouldn’t want to play on the Bills here, still wouldn’t be surprised if they covered this line. But against a historic, traditional winning team like the Steelers, I have to lean to this. Steelers plus 14.

TJ Rives:

Well again, they have had trouble running the ball with Najee Harris. The defense got pushed around some of, Did you see this stat? I saw this from wherever the Elias Sports Bureau or whoever’s stats had this Kenny Pickett became the first quarterback ever in the NFL in a game with 13 or more passes where none of them touched the ground. That is to say he completed 10 passes to the Steelers and he completed three passes to the Jets as interceptions. It’s the first time ever that a quarterback with at least 13 attempts had no passes touch the ground. No, no in completions. So he is got to do better on the three interceptions. We’ll see if he can in Buffalo. This is ripe though. This is ripe for the Bills here, you would think against a rookie quarterback. Yeah, how about that Mike G’s saying, not since they drafted Terry Bradshaw, the Steelers, Terry Bradshaw out of Louisiana Tech.

Kenny Pickett is the hometown guy out of pit, so they’re cheering him on big time, but it’s a road game at Buffalo. So no official play from our handicappers on that one coming Sunday. A game that is intriguing for a lot of reasons with my Tampa Bay Buccaneers coming off of back to back losses, including a Sunday night whipping at the hands of the Kansas City Chiefs. They were beaten up physically. Chiefs ran on him. Patrick Mahomes worked his magic. Now the Buccaneers are two and two after starting the year two and 0 on the road, Atlanta Falcons come in off a win off of Cleveland. Beat Cleveland last week. Marcus Mariota and Company though 10 point underdogs. The total is 47 for this one. And Chris Farley, we’re going to come right back to you for an official play on this one. And I believe it is part of a parlay for you as well. What do you like and why?

Chris Farley:

Yeah, this is a seven point teaser for me, man. BetUs likes to move these lines up right before we do this show. It was, I did have two and a half on this, but I, okay, I’ll tease it down seven points and I’ll take the three. I wish I got under that three, but I’m going to tease this with another play. I mean this is what you call just like last week, right? With the Bengals. And we saw what happened in that game against the Dolphins. This is just a situational dream for the Bucks off two losses. They’re still at home. That vaunted defense allowed what? 41 points last week in a revenge game for the Chiefs. To me, that’s a lot of Patrick Mahomes and his magic, right? I didn’t come away from that game being like, Man, the Buck’s defense, maybe it’s not that good.

No, it’s still really good. That was just Patrick Mahomes was very focused in that game. And now here come the Falcons, right? And everyone’s like, oh Falcons are four and 0 against the spread. They fight hard to putting up some offense, a lot of top 10 rankings from their offense. So they’re staying in these games. But that’s a young team. It’s a lot of inexperienced starters that is now going to Tampa Bay against an angry Tom Brady who I guess is filing divorce papers. Add that to the list of things just to piss them off for this game. Some of these starters on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, now they have some warmth, they’ve been out there on the field maybe developing a little bit of chemistry. This feels like an absolute smash by for the Bucks at home. Still though, you got to respect what the Falcons have done climbing their way back into these games. So I’d rather tease it down. I’ll take it down to three and I’ll combine that with another teaser leg in a future play.

TJ Rives:

Scott Kellen, Tom Brady, four for four in beating and covering against the Falcons. And it’s not a technical term, but I love to use it. Wrong place, wrong time is what Scott is what Chris Farley’s talking about. Are the Falcons in the wrong place at the wrong time in Tampa’s Sunday? If no official play, what do you think?

Scott Kellen:

I think they are. I was going to tease this as well and then not being able to get it under three, I just pulled it off. But if you’re able to tease it, I would say six six [inaudible 00:33:07] that point at minus 125 or less and you can get it under three. I think it’s a very valuable play. I do think they’re in the wrong place at the wrong time and my numbers greatly support Tampa Bay in this game. They actually also support the under fairly decently, I’m not sure where to go with that, but I do think the defense will rise to the occasion here. They were beaten pretty badly and I think they’re going to be, and look would know this better than me, TJ, but I think a lot of what came about last and I had Tampa Bay in a great line. They had plus two and a half and plus three last week.

But a lot might have just been because of the hurricane and getting placed down in Miami for the week and stuff and who knows how much that affected them. And then almost that first turnover, which just kind of changed the game a little bit as well. So I would expect the defense to rise to the occasion here. And maybe that helps me get to the under as well if I decide to play that. And I guess the other point I was going to make, what I was going to say some, oh, I don’t remember what else I was going to say in that. Sorry.

TJ Rives:

How about Brittney has covered, I believe it’s nine point or bigger line all four times for what it’s worth the last couple of years against Atlanta? I can throw that in there. And the Buccaneer defense, again, that was more about Kansas City. I can tell you that that Mahomes play that we’ve all been seeing guys that play was right in front of me when he came right to the inside, the five yard line. I’m down there in my radio duties with the Buccaneers and the radio broadcast and he did the pure wet right in front of me and I thought he was going to maybe get smashed and he didn’t. I don’t know how many quarterbacks on the planet make that play where they just turn around and make the flick into the end zone. Kind of the option pass flick that he made to Clyde Edwards-Helaire.

You got to talk a lot of that up to the success obviously that Kansas City has had on offense when they get rolling and they were in a revenge mode. So I give them a lot of credit. I just don’t know that the Falcons can replicate that. We’ll see if the Falcons can replicate that or not. Here on this.

Scott Kellen:

[inaudible 00:35:10] I was going to add is no Cordarrelle Patterson and Kyle Pitts has got a hamstring. So I mean if they’re playing without both of those guys, they know Pitts hasn’t done a ton yet this year, but that’s going to impact them as well.

TJ Rives:

All right. And we had somebody asking a second ago about Tom Brady props. We had a viewer asking about that. Is this a week? Maybe Chris Farley real quick a week to maybe look at Tom Brady individual props.

Chris Farley:

I’m not too sure about that because I think they can control this game on the ground if they wanted to. Fournette really hasn’t gotten going so far yet either. So Brady still, he still looks like there’s some kinks in the armor still, right? You got to get this past game kind of fluid and more rhythmic. So I don’t think we’re quite there yet. I would look at that maybe later in the season for Tom Brady. But again, I mean if there’s any spot I would look at Tom Brady’s spots when he is in a game where he’s going to have to throw the ball a lot, right? There’s going to be like a high percent against a really formidable offense. The Falcons have been that way so far, but this is a huge test on the road and without some key players. So I don’t know if Brady’s going to have to throw the ball as much in this context.

TJ Rives:

All right, let’s lock it in officially. And again for Chris Farley here, he’s doing this as part of a tease coming up here. He is going to tease that line down to three as he was talking about. Might have wanted it at two and a half, but going to tease that line down a little bit. All right, so that’s the official play that he has on this one. And it won’t take long to pay off what the tees is on because it’s going to be part of the next game.

And that is the Minnesota Vikings playing host to the Chicago Bears. Interesting again for Minnesota. Normally these teams from London get an off week, get a bye week after the international game, not the case for the Saints and the Vikings this soon in the season. They’re both playing this week off the London game. So the Vikings come back home here to play against the Chicago Bears in this match up Minnesota. A hefty seven and a half point favorite in this one. All right, and both handicappers here are going to be interested in this game. Scott Kellen, let’s go to you here because it’s the payoff of a tease for you earlier in the show. What do you like about this one and why?

Scott Kellen:

Yeah, I’m going to tease Minnesota down. We’ll get them down to I think basically one here. And I’m also going to play the Vikings minus seven and a half as well. I don’t have any problem playing that either. You might be able to find them minus seven, but I’ll play it at seven and a half as well. I favor the Vikings quite a bit in this game. Chicago kind of comes in kind of like the Giants. The Bears are second worse than a league in Big Pass plays. They just do not move the ball. They don’t really throw the ball. They settled for what four field goals last week, which they had a backup kicker, so they made all those fields, which is great. But I just think this is going to be problematic for the Bears.

I don’t love this Vikings team and we’ll see if there’s a bit of a hangover coming from coming back from London to be determined. But I just don’t see the Bears being able to compete against this Viking teams, to me the Bears are either the worst or second worst team in a league. And I just think this is a pretty good matchup for Minnesota to get the running game going against a team like Chicago and just be able to control a ball and do what they want at home. And I just don’t see the Bears being able to move the ball or score a lot of points on the road with Justin Fields as well.

TJ Rives:

All right, interesting here, as it’s part of his teaser, it’s also part of a teaser for you as well. Chris Farley a thought here that the fantasy owners are going crazy. The Dalvin Cook’s not getting touches in and around the goal line not getting touchdowns. Kirk Cousins at times is shaky with some of the throws, but yet Minnesota’s three and one. What are your thoughts? And I know you’ve got an official play here, you’ve got a teaser play you like as well in this game.

Chris Farley:

Yeah, I’m going to tease down the Vikings too to a win. Have to do that seven points, right, because I’m doing that with the Bucks. But yeah, I mean this is not a good setup for the Bears. I mean, Minnesota gets to go back home. This is where Minnesota thrives and they’re kind of comfy. Kirk Cousins, he loves a one o’clock spot in the afternoon at home. And to Scott’s point, right? I mean the Bears can’t stretch the field. I mean I don’t see that changing any time soon. It’s just what Justin Fields has available at Wide Receiver is just very thin. Now the Bears do a good job of running the ball and the Vikings have not been very good against the run on defense, but I think the Vikings could go up and they can go quicken this one. And then you have the Bears trying to come back for the entire game and the Bears past defensive statistics are pretty good, but look who they face.

They face the 49ers in a practical hurricane and then they faced the Packers and they didn’t cover that game, but then they beat the Texans and they faced the Giants. So these aren’t premier passing teams when they go up against the Vikings. I just think it’s going to be a different story. Kirk hasn’t had that spot since week one where him and his offense really exploded. So this just feels like the spot for them to do that. And the Vikings defense tends to play up at home too. I think the only way you can look in this one is the Vikings. So final leg of my teaser Bucks and Vikings, Bucks minus three Vikings just to win roll.

TJ Rives:

All right, let’s lock both guys in. Again, as Chris just mentioned on the second half of his teaser play and also the same second half of a teaser play for Scott from his earlier play with Green Bay, as he was mentioning, they’re saying Vikings, Vikings, again, say what you want about the offenses struggles at times they’ve done enough. They got the double doink on the field goal attempt by the Saints to help them stay out of overtime. Let’s keep in mind, it only would’ve put the game in over time had the Saints made the kick. Amazing that Wil Lutz the Saints kicker had made a 60 yard field goal a little while earlier from the same spot at the Midfield logo. He was trying about a half yard back, about 61 yards, 60 and a half yards, whatever, and it goes off the left off right off the crossbar and Minnesota gets a happy flight home all the way back to Minneapolis from London.

And the Saints have their head down at one in three. It’s how the ball bounced last Sunday. These guys are liking the Vikings though, in the traditional matchup in the NFC North with the Chicago Bears. A reminder again, we’re live here Thursdays at one Eastern time, depending on however you’re seeing it, if you’re seeing segments of the show, et cetera. We’re live at one Eastern, we’ve got the live chat going with your comments, et cetera. We’re going through every game you’ll get every game on the betUs NFL show as we rock along.

Let’s continue next up on the list. Here is a game involving a team that had a good bounce back week last week. That’s the Tennessee Titans. We already spoke about how they went to Indianapolis and won. Now they’ve got the matchup with the Washington Commanders, a team that is floundering, that lost in Dallas last week. Carson Wentzs’ play is struggling. There’s no official play here, but Scott Kellen, I’m going to go come back to you, do Tennessee find something against the Colts last week? Derrick Henry ran it well. You mentioned earlier in the show opportunistic defense, I guess what did they find last week and can it continue on the road in DC?

Scott Kellen:

Well, I’ll tell you, I think you got to respect Mike Vrabel and what he can do with the team. He’s a very good coach, so certainly respect that. And that’s always going to come to the table in any game. He’s going to have the team ready. I don’t have any play here for Washington. My God, that defensive line got beat up a few weeks ago. I mean, it’s just been horrendous for them. And now the offensive line, I mean seriously, us three could probably audition for him and have a chance mean they’ve got nobody left in that offensive line, as at all. Dotson is a little banged up. He may not have practiced or may have been limited yesterday. This team’s a mess right now. I mean, they can not move the ball. And now you’re going to go up against a Tennessee team who they were, Tennessee was missing a couple guys last week, Hooker in the secondary.

He might come back as well to help them. It’s just having said all that, my numbers kind of support Washington a little bit and I have to keep looking at those numbers and am I missing something? Because it kind of just shocks me and it’s just no way I can take Washington right now with just what they’re putting out in the field and displaying. So it’s a pass for me, but this Washington team is really, really beat up. I’ll add one thing that kind of applies to all these games this week, or many of them guys ever put on the injured reserve at the beginning of the season. That’s a four week stint and now it’s possible, you see a lot of updates where they’re I’m going to get the term wrong probably, but activating them and whatnot, they can practice for three weeks at some point they can play. So it’s a little hard to tell.

TJ Rives:

[inaudible 00:44:05] If I can interject, it’s called the evaluation period. They can evaluate them for two or three weeks and activate them at any point along the way, but if you don’t activate them within the three weeks, they stay on injured reserve, I believe for the remainder of the year. You got to bring them off. I think so.

Scott Kellen:

Yeah, I think you’re correct in that TJ. And so you kind of have to watch and see if some of these guys might come back and some of these teams in Washington’s got guys that fit that mode that might help them, but right now they’re just too decimated for me to want to get involved with anything on them.

TJ Rives:

And again, the commanders can’t seem to protect Carson wins, et cetera. Chris Farley, any thoughts here? Tennessee, back to back wins again though back to back games on the road. No official play, but any quick thought here?

Chris Farley:

Yeah, I mean, God, last week we talked about it on this show. It was just one of those spots where, hey, that line doesn’t make sense. The commander is only three point underdogs on the road. Maybe it’s the spot for some kind of regression. A lot of sharps on Washington last week still didn’t happen. Just football happened. The defensive line of the Cowboys got after Carson once again. And it is tough to trust. I mean, if you watch any Tennessee Titans game, they don’t always get sacks, but they do get pressure on the quarterback. If Carson Wentz is again, which you have to assume he will be just a little confused back there. It’s a little chaotic back there. I can’t play on Washington. I got the Titans a minus one when this first came out. I’ll stick with that. But I still did give a little bit of value to Washington here too. I don’t know why, because eventually I have to stop looking at Washington. I’m definitely not going to play on that this week though.

TJ Rives:

All right, so no official play from our guys here on the Commanders and right now, why would you with the way that they have struggled? We’ll just see. We’ll see what happens? Let’s move along to a game that the guys are going to both have an official play on. This one in New York, The Jets off the win over Pittsburgh. Taking on the Miami Dolphins here, The Dolphins Lane three. Our total is 46. Chris Farley, I’m right back to you for an official play. No tour off the awful concussion. Teddy Bridgewater will be the quarterback for Miami. What are your thoughts here on this AFC east matchup?

Chris Farley:

Yeah, you know, could look at this two ways, right? You could look at the Miami situation right now, all the controversy about two and the concussion, et cetera. And you could be like, Man, this is a team in disarray, I think. I don’t know if they’re going to do very well, but then you look at the other side and the Jets probably have two of the phoniest wins in NFL history, especially to start the season, right? We all know what happened against the Browns and they damn sure shouldn’t have won last week against the Steelers. That was a crazy finish against the Steelers as well. Credit to Zach Wilson for playing well in the fourth quarter. But this Miami Dolphins defense can get after the quarterback too. If they don’t sack him similar to Tennessee, they at least confuse the quarterback. Zach Wilson is not a good decision maker.

He has an interesting arm. He can make some really cool passes here and there, but he has a lot of growth and in one of these spots he’s just going to mess up. And I trust the Miami offense with all the creativity. We know Teddy Bridgewater, he covers these games. He’s a great ATS quarterback and I trust their defense and I trust their play makers here and only minus three. I don’t think the Jets deserve a ton of credit for playing at home. So at only minus three, I’m going to favor Miami. This one I think they cover by more than a field goal.

TJ Rives:

Farley the Giants fan knocking the jets here off a win at Pittsburgh are the Jet fans are star for any kind of hope. They get a win at Pittsburgh and Farley gives them no love here on the BetUS NFL show for today. All right, so you had an official play, Scott Kellen, you have an official play on this game at MetLife Stadium here, Jets and Dolphins. What is it and why?

Scott Kellen:

Yeah, I’m going under the 46 points. Now. I might be in the minority. This thing got bet up yesterday I think a little bit, and I’ll put some caveats around it, but I was on the under for the Jets last week and unfortunately lost that thing at the very end. Went under in their week one game against Baltimore. I think this Jet defense is okay and I don’t expect a big drop off from Bridgewater. Some things possibly working against me here. Miami number two in the league in yards per pass and they’re going to face the Jet steam, that’s number 25 defending it. And Miami can’t really run the ball. They’re number 28 in the league. Jet’s number six, defending the run so they figured a whole play maybe stifle them a little bit running the ball. Obviously that just leads to more passing, which can lead to points of course.

So that can work against me, but it’s a value play for me. My numbers are under this number by enough to create value here, so I’m going to trust the numbers and play it that way and we’ll see. I agree. Zach Wilson, I don’t think there’s anything special there. The one other concern I would have here is Xavien Howard. Got hurt last week and he’s a little banged up. I don’t even know if he’s going to play. I would be a little concerned about that if he can’t play in terms of my bet here on the under. But if he’s a go, I’m going to trust the value that I’ve got here and play the under 46 points.

They’re scoring was up last week, but average points right now are about 44 in a game. So we’re a little bit above that. And I don’t think this Jets offense is that good. And I think Miami’s going to come with pressure they have this year and that could cause a lot of problems for Zach Wilson as well. Just got to hope. No turnovers on your own side of the field that create easy points.

TJ Rives:

All right, so again, an AFC east clash where the dolphins had been three and no before they lost that Thursday night game. They’re now three in one. Scott Kellen says, give me the under 46. And Chris Farley says, I like the dolphins. And lay those three points on the betUs line for that match up this week. Let’s continue here on our Thursday show. Moving right along the LA Chargers and the Cleveland Browns, the Chargers off of a win over Houston where hey, if you’re a fantasy owner, Austin Ekeler came alive, running and catching the touchdowns, had three of them last week in the game. Chargers looked better, Justin Herbert looked better off the rib cartilage injury. Meanwhile, Cleveland, a tough day, a back and forth game, a loss last week in Atlanta. They’ve won a couple of games early on in the year. Chargers favored by two and a half on the road. The number is 47. Scott Kellen, I’m right back to you for an official play here and it’s going to be part of a parlay, I believe. What do you like?

Scott Kellen:

Yeah, part of a teaser TJ. We’re going to tease up six points, get it up to eight and a half with Cleveland and we’ll add the other team here in a little bit. I show a little bit of value with Cleveland here. Now the caveat also is that I’m assuming Myles Garrett’s going to play. We’ll see, he’s practicing a little bit. I don’t know if he doesn’t play. I don’t think Clowney’s going to play without Garrett. They’ve lost their two edge rushers and this defense has been average at best and that might be kind. So I do worry a little bit there. But where I think there’s a big mismatch here is Cleveland should be able to run the ball in the Chargers. They’re number eight in the league in yards per rush against the charger team that is second to last in the league in defending the run.

I think Cleveland’s going to be able to run the ball here. I do have a couple nice situations at play to the under here with Garrett playing. I make this total about 45, so a little bit under where the total is as well. So I think there will be, it’ll probably be a little bit lower scoring game as well. Cleveland’s ability to run the ball. I think that will help us stay within the eight and a half point teaser.

TJ Rives:

All right, fair enough there about the Browns. Any thoughts if no official play here, Chris Farley on this matchup were the Chargers again, which Chargers show up the team that got whacked by Jacksonville at home or the team that looked pretty good, albeit against a bad Houston team on the road. Any thought here? And again, this is another road game back to back road games for the Chargers as well. Real quick.

Chris Farley:

Yeah, they look good, but they almost let Houston come back and cover that game. I mean the Chargers just underwhelmed me almost every week. That Myles Garrett as a nation is huge because we know Justin Herbert under pressure is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, I think in NFL history through two years or two seasons. So Justin Herbert, if he’s not under pressure, that is something to fear if you’re on the side of the Cleveland Browns in this one. That being said, now I really don’t show any. I think the line is right. The Chargers have to be slight favorite still because of all the talent on that team, but the Browns off of a loss. They can control this game on the ground. Chargers haven’t been as good as they should be on defense all year, really. Right? But Jacoby Brissett also isn’t going to stretch the field that much either. So it should just be a close game. Two teams that have strengths in different ways. So I really don’t know how to approach this one, so I’d rather just stay off of it.

TJ Rives:

All right, so again, Scott Kellen has the play here, the official play. We will lock him in as part of a teaser. And he has teased the Browns line up here to eight and a half for a future play for that matchup that is Cleveland and the Chargers at the new Dog Pound. And again, Cleveland, a couple of wins with Jacoby Brissett already. And you look at that Jets game that they absolutely gave away, they could have three wins already. Should have, could have, would have in that case. Let’s move on the live Thursday show the New England Patriots off the hard luck overtime loss. They already were without Mack Jones. They lost Brian Hoyer, the veteran quarterback to a concussion, and then they went to Bailey Zappe, who in the world had him quarterbacking the New England Patriots early in the year, The kid out of Western Kentucky.

A rookie Zappe was not that bad in the matchup with Green Bay, but Green Bay wins the game in overtime. Now the Lions, who we’ve already mentioned had a wild game with Seattle last week. The Lions come into New England Patriots favored by three, Patriots laying three. The total is 46. There’s no official play here. Chris Farley, I’m coming right back to you. This is like Bill Belichick feasting on a Detroit team that yes, they’ve scored some against lesser competition, but I could see Belichick salivating here with the defense against Jared Goff and Company. What do you think if no official play, Chris?

Chris Farley:

Yeah, I really want to play on the lines here. It just depends if they get some of their skill players on offense back, right? You got Hawkinson is questionable right now. A lot of players didn’t practice on offense on Wednesday, right? Got some injuries to the offensive line. We don’t know if Swift is going to be back. We don’t know if Amon St. Brown is going to be back. And those guys proved to be pretty important. I mean the lion still put out 42 points last week, but they were in comeback mode almost that whole game. I don’t see it happening this week against the Patriots that they don’t have those skill players on the other end. Obviously this Lion’s defense has not looked very good so far. But that’s the topic of interest this week in Detroit, right? Dan Campbell knows it, the whole team knows it.

We’re talking about moving around Aidan Hutchinson a little bit more, which I think is a really good idea for that Detroit defense against Bailey Zappe. I mean if Hutchinson can get back there, you have to believe that they could at least slow down this prolific Patriots offense, right? It’s not prolific. So this should be a pretty low scoring game. No, I would lean to my strongest lean is probably just the under, but I’ll say this, I want to take Detroit because my numbers [inaudible 00:55:27] is only one to one and a half point underdogs even on the road. I think this Patriots defense too is a little fake news. So what they played well last week, they played pretty poorly in a lot of weeks before that. So I think it’s more of a median thing for the Patriots and I think the lions.

TJ Rives:

But I mean in fairness, they win against Rogers and Green Bay on the road. They went against Lamar Jackson at home, Goff in Detroit. I don’t know if they have as much fire power. We’ll see. I know you don’t have an official play on the game. Scott Kellen, let me bring you in here. Is Detroit going to hang with New England? Potentially, yes. It’s a rookie quarterback for Belichick and company. Maybe they run the ball more Scott in this game at home.

Scott Kellen:

Hey, they’re number one rushing offense in the league and they’re going to face New England who’s number 30 in the league. So they figured to be able to, And if you go back, I think it was the Seattle game, we talked about this. Here’s two average teams, 500 or below total higher than 44 teams getting three or more points that favors Detroit, that situation five and 0 this year. And it’s been a winner year after year after year. So I don’t want to ignore that right now. I make New England about a four point favor, but to Chris’s point, that’s without a whole bunch of offensive guys for Detroit. And that would change pretty dramatically if we found out some of those guys were going to play. And that would probably take it under three in terms of favoring New England. And I lean towards right now. But again, if they get some of those offensive guys back, my number would probably get closer to where this total sits. So it’s a pass for me.

I think both teams are going to be running the ball and should probably be able to do it pretty successfully. And it just really depends who’s going to play here. I don’t think Mack Jones is playing, but Detroit could add, they’re missing a lot of elements here so they could add a few pieces that would be a big difference for them versus what they might put out there right now.

TJ Rives:

Yeah, watch those injury reports as Thursday becomes Friday. Friday hits to the weekend on who’s playing in this game or not and is it going to be Bailey Zappe, the kid that threw 62 hello touchdown passes last year at Western Kentucky. That’s an FBS single season record. No kidding. He episode 13 games, 62 touchdown passes in 13 games. That’s college, that’s Western Kentucky. We’ll see what he can do in the NFL with the Patriots taking on the Lions. All right, let’s move on. We’re coming down to stretch here on the BetUs NFL show. We’ve got the 49ers and the Carolina Panthers, San Francisco Lane seven with a total of only 39 in this game. Carolina last week, awful, especially in the second half against Arizona. Lost at home San Francisco. Great win emotional Monday night win. They seem to own the Rams short week now for them going on the road. Scott Kellen, I’m right back to you because this is part of your previous teaser play with the Browns. What do you like and why, sir?

Scott Kellen:

Yeah, we’re going to tease San Francisco down to one. This Carolina team, this is not a good team. And San Francisco is kind of quietly playing extremely well. We know now they’ve got Jimmy G for the rest of the year, so we can have confidence from that standpoint and who’s going to be the quarterback? And they’ve got some injured guys there to come back here pretty soon on the defensive side of the ball as well that run injured reserve earlier in the year. So I look at this yards per play, or sorry, yards per pass, Carolina number 27 in the league, San Francisco number three in terms of defending the pass play. Big pass plays Carolina number 30, they’re getting no big pass plays. San Francisco number one in the league. They just do not allow big pass plays at all in terms of putting pressure, which all these previous things kind of bring to this, come to this San Francisco number eight in the league in putting pressure on the quarterback Carolina number 24 in the league in allowing pressure.

Carolina’s not moving the ball at all and I don’t know how they’re going to do it against this team who’s playing very well. Yeah, they’re going all the way east. Yes, they played on Monday night, so that stuff could play into this, but I feel pretty good about the 49ers being able to just win this game from a teaser standpoint and cover for us on this leg of the teaser along with Cleveland.

TJ Rives:

All right, so he’s officially on this game. Chris Farley, you’re not officially on this game. Is there any hope that Baker Mayfield and McCaffrey and the Panthers get their act together here against San Francisco? Quick thought, if no official play real quick.

Chris Farley:

Yeah, no, I don’t think so. I think this is who truly Baker Mayfield is, especially behind a mediocre offensive line. I do not know how they’re going to score points in this game. I mean, if this 49ers defense keeps on flying around the way they are, good luck, right? Because Baker Mayfield did. The Panthers can’t score points against much less talented defenses. The one thing, just to play contrarian about this game, it kind of makes me a little not so confident in the 49ers, is it’s weird, right?

Shanahan, if you saw him, saw the way the 49ers offense looked against the Broncos, it looked like a totally different offense than what we saw against the Rams. It’s just Shanahan and some of these non-conference, non divisional matchups just plays a lot more conservatively, doesn’t play, doesn’t create things as much. It’s not as competitive or as innovative on offense. I don’t know what that’s all about. If he’s more conservative here, maybe the Panthers can hang in. But no, I mean I think the only way to play on this is the 49ers. And I kind of like the unders too, because again, how are the Panthers going to score points? I don’t know.

TJ Rives:

Well, again, it’s part of a two part teaser that Scott Kellen has, and we’ll go ahead and lock him in, not only with the Cleveland game, but he’s going to tease San Francisco down. Just make sure they win, lay the one point and make sure they win the football game by at least a couple of points here. And he’s going to be golden with that. For the 49ers at Carolina.

Intriguing game with the only unbeaten team remaining in the NFL, that’s the Philadelphia Eagles. E-A-G-L-E-S. Farley doesn’t want to hear me say that. Eagles at Arizona off the road win at Carolina. No official play in this matchup with Philadelphia laying five and the total 49. Chris Farley, I’m right back to you. I smelled something here on our three dog Thursday show. In fact, I looked at the numbers that say Arizona has won five in a row against Philadelphia. Different coaching staffs, Yes, they don’t play every year. Five in a row at home against Philadelphia covered every time. Kliff Kingsbury covered, yes. Different coaching staff against Doug Peterson and company two years ago at home. I like the Cardinals for three dog Thursday purposes. No official play from you, but any quick thought here on Philly at Arizona, late game Sunday afternoon.

Chris Farley:

Yeah, I think that’s a sharp look TJ, I mean this game is just, I have it circled too. It’s one of those lines that’s like, it’s just a little shady, isn’t it? Every time there’s a five point line too, it’s like, it’s almost like the NFL odds makers don’t know what to do. Should they be more of a favorite? Should they be less? And five is just a weird number. And the thing about Philly is they just, there’s not much to hate about this team so far. Obviously it went down in the first quarter last week, but look at the way they responded, right? 29 to seven finished there. I know there was some turnovers, but they’ve played almost perfect football so far.

Eventually regression has to hit, eventually there has to be a little bit of a mental letdown. First time going to the west coast. And this is a Cardinal’s team who, they’re just tricky. They’re just tricky to measure because a lot of it is Kyle or Murray and what he can create. JJ Watt now is coming off that heart complications the previous week. So he’s really inspired now sometimes things like that really inspired.

TJ Rives:

Can I interject? Wasn’t that incredible that he revealed he had to have his heart shocked back into rhythm? That’s what AFib is. Nothing to mess around with your heart. He’s out there playing Sunday and even got a deflected interception in the game, you know, feel for the fine line of player safety here. But that was quite the inspirational performance for his teammates, watching that around there real quick, right?

Chris Farley:

Oh absolutely. Right. And at the end of the day, these are all professional football players. They can play at a higher level. I mean that’s literally, if you look at the definition of motivation in psychology, humans can go beyond what they’re capable of because they’re so inspired. And so sometimes in those situations you got to look at things like that. Not necessarily count on it, but this is a weird spot for the Eagles. So I just wouldn’t play on the Eagles here. I mean in the first half maybe. It’s interesting because the Cardinals have allowed more points than any other team. They’ve scored fewer points than any other team in the first half and the Eagles are the number one scoring team in the first half. But it just all feels too obvious and that’s what scares me like.

TJ Rives:

And by the way, Scott Kellen, I know you have no official play on this game. The Cardinals, for what it’s worth, underdogs in both the first two home games with the Chiefs and with the Rams. Didn’t win, didn’t cover in either of those. Now it’s a third time with Philadelphia coming in, laying the five. Any thought on this if no official play real quick, Scott?

Scott Kellen:

Yeah, I’ve got some value on Arizona and I’m kind of like you guys. I mean I could rattle off all these stats. Philly number one yards per pass, Arizona number 24, that doesn’t work. Arizona number 32 in yards per pass. Philly number two, that doesn’t work. Kyle Murray the worst in the league as far as starting quarterbacks in intended air yards per pass, so they’re not getting the ball down the field yet. All that said, I’ve got this at about maybe a two and a half point line right now and I’m a little worried about playing Arizona and my numbers have supported Philadelphia pretty well this year, so I kind of trust that they’re kind of right. So if this thing keeps creeping up, especially if it got to six, I would probably get on Arizona and take my chances.

TJ Rives:

But for now, neither guy on this game officially with the Cardinals hosting the Philadelphia Eagles let us move on down to the final three games that we have on the BetUs Live Thursday show. We’re glad that you’re with us. Hit the like button, hit the subscribe. If you’re just finding us in the middle of the show, make sure you’re here live at one Eastern time. You see the live chat comments going, we’re trying to get to some of those as the show progresses as well. Always enjoy the banter and there’s a lot of plays by our handicappers. We’re going to recap all of them here at the end of the show.

Rams and Cowboys marquee game, most of the country will see it on Fox as the double header game in the late window Eastern and central time right there at one 30. Local time in La la Land. Rams off the tough Monday night loss. Look at the Dallas Cowboys with three straight wins. Look at the Dallas Cowboys getting points here in LA getting five and a half on the BetUs line. The total is 42 and a half. Scott Kellen, I’m right back to you. No official play, but any thought on this game?

Scott Kellen:

I’ve got the Rams minus five, the total 44, so we’re right there. I guess my one comment I would make Rams offensive line really, really, really beat up right now and they, they’ve also had some injuries in the secondary as well, so they’re just a wounded animal right now. That obviously makes it a little bit tougher, but in the Rams number 28 in the league in getting big Pass plays Dallas, number two in defending them so that defense has actually played. Okay, I think ESPN came out recently with a, I forget the exact term of it, but basically how well can receivers get open and Allen Robinson’s just basically not getting open. I don’t know if that’s because of his injury last year and he just isn’t healed enough, but it’s the Cooper Kupp show and which has been pretty amazing show, but I’d be pretty hard pressed to lay the five points with the Rams, but my numbers don’t indicate value either way.

TJ Rives:

Again, Cowboys whacked the Commanders at home. Cooper Rush has become the first Dallas quarterback to ever win his first four starts won previous to this season, and now three in a row since taking over for the injured Dak Prescott. Chris Farley, any thoughts here on Cowboys against the Rams at SoFi Stadium?

Chris Farley:

Just that the Cowboys are a really interesting team right now. I think oftentimes these teams take on the personality of their quarterback and when Dak went down it, I mean I already thought that the Dallas defense would be more formidable than their offense this year, but now that defense has just really stepped up, taken over games. Scott’s point, right? We saw that Ram’s offensive line on Monday night football is just not looking very good. I mean, he was running around that whole game forcing the ball to Cooper Kupp. If you do that against the Dallas Defense and someone like Trevon Diggs who loves to pick off those forced passes, I don’t know. I mean, I think the line is right.

I think the Rams have to be a favorite of over field goal here. But these cowboys are interesting because Cooper Rush just, he’s efficient, he doesn’t make mistakes, he keeps them in the game. The defense is playing really hard. I want to lean the cowboys here as much as, I don’t want to say that as a Giants fan, it just both. The thing about the Eagles we just talked about and the thing about the Cowboys is they both have their look ahead game. A month of football next week, Cowboys at Eagles. So maybe that’s a thing too, but how could you look ahead when you’re facing the former Super Bowl champion? So that’s right. I think the Cowboys continue to be pretty competitive here. I have a lean towards the Cowboys, even though I think the line’s pretty accurate.

TJ Rives:

Well, I could tell you from having been in Dallas on opening night on the Sunday night game with my Buccaneers off the radio broadcast with the Bucks when they beat the Cowboys and Dak Prescott’s thumb was hurt. They were crisis mode to say the least. Talk radio, Jerry Jones, whatever. They’ve won three in a row. And if Cooper Rush and the Cowboys somehow get it together and beat the Rams, who would’ve had them four and one in his first four starts, what a luxury to now debate whether Dak Prescott can be back soon for that Monday night game with the Eagles, et cetera. Again, no official play here, but it’s going to be one of the games of the late afternoon to watch with the Cowboys taking on the Rams, the defending Super Bowl champs, as Chris mentioned in Los Angeles. All right, that leaves us two games.

One of those is the Sunday night game and the Baltimore Ravens still stinging off of their second half collapse. Or was it a great Baltimore or a great Buffalo comeback? Buffalo down 17 came back and won the game, got the key interception of Lamar Jackson, late in the game, drove down, kicked the winning field goal. So Baltimore’s let a couple of leads slip away, they’re still at home. The Cincinnati Bengals meanwhile have played better. They beat Miami 10 days ago in the Thursday night game. Joe Burrow looked good. The line is Baltimore laying the three, the total is 48 and a half. Scott Kellen, we’re back to you for an official play to start us off here. What do you like for the Sunday night game in Baltimore?

Scott Kellen:

Yeah, I’m going to take Cincinnati plus the three. There was some three and a half’s early in the week. Maybe that pops back up again. We’ll see. That would obviously be a fabulous number, but I like Ci- I make the game pick them here. My number supports Cincinnati and actually lean decently to the over if this thing dropped down a little bit from a total perspective, I don’t know that it will. I would probably look at the over as well. But I like what Cincinnati is doing here. They obviously started here pretty rough. They’ve kind of got themselves together a little bit. Maybe they got a little lucky with the injury last week to kind of allow them to go forward and ultimately beat Miami. But this is a kind of big home run hitting team with the receivers. Hopefully T Higgins can play. That would obviously not help if he can’t.

I think they can make plays against this Baltimore team. They have done it. Joe Burrows done it in the past. This Ravens defense is not great and since that’s been pretty good against the rush this year, the Ravens obviously bring kind of a different rushing game. So we’ll see how much that matters. But I just think Cincinnati can stay within this number and very easily I think win this game as well. Ravens are a very good team, but getting three or if we can get three and a half, I think that’s pretty good value with Cincinnati. And I’m going to take a shot with the Bengals here and grab the points.

TJ Rives:

Interesting. Chris Farley, we saw Marcus Peters the veteran pro bowl corner melting down in the second half and really in the fourth quarter of that game, he was upset apparently with the defensive play calls that were coming in. He’s upset with the scheme, et cetera. I guess he wants to be a coach on the field. He’s unhappy. What do we make of a Baltimore team that again, was very good against New England at New England, but then they turn right around and give that lead up to Buffalo. Now they host the defending AFC champs in the Cincinnati Bengals. I know you don’t have an official play, but what’s your thoughts on this game real quick?

Chris Farley:

The Ravens are just kind of tough to figure out right now, right? Cause I mean the potential that they have is obvious just with the talent they have all over the field. Maybe they’re missing Don “Wink” Martindale a little more than they thought they would, right? There’s a lot of, there’s some talk around Baltimore that, oh, this defensive style is kind of getting old. Well, they benefited from it in the past and now just things aren’t quite as in sync. I’ll say this in favor of Scott’s Pick and the Bengals are a very physical defense and they’re going to be just appear a lot vigor on the field then the Ravens wide receivers, et cetera.

So if the Bengals can just get physical and blue collar from the very beginning, Joe Burrow is definitely, definitely going to be confident in this matchup, right? He’s had success against the Ravens before, so I have to lean to the Bengals in this matchup too. I think the line is exactly right, you know, have to think that the Ravens are going to show a better of performance this week after letting that go last week. But then the Bengals are also off of 10 days rest and they got right on Thursday night football. So it’s just a tough game for me. But I don’t blame anyone for betting on the Bengals here. I mean they should stay in this game for the entirety of the game.

TJ Rives:

All right. The official play does belong to Scott Kellen Sunday Night Football, are the Raven’s going to get well? Scott Kellen says, I’m not so sure Cincinnati may be coming on here off the winds over the Jets and the Thursday night win over the Dolphins. He will take the Bengals and the three points for the Sunday night game. One game to go here on our Thursday bet US NFL show. That’s the Monday nighter. I saw those chiefs firsthand whip up on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers had over 450 yards of office, ran it on a Buccaneer defense that doesn’t get run on. They ran it for almost 200 yards in the game. Mahomes just electric out of the pocket making plays. You’ve got the Raiders who are feeling better off of a win over the Broncos. Then again, they weren’t that impressive. The line is seven and a half, which is interesting. Some might think with the Chiefs at home off that went over the bucks. It might be more total is 51. Chris Farley, I’m back to you for our final official play of the show. What do you like? And why my friend?

Chris Farley:

I’m a little afraid that Scott Kellen is going to say something really sharp here to tonight to make me not like my play because it just feels pretty square, doesn’t it? Oh, an over and a chiefs game. Oh yeah. Well, shocking Chris, but I don’t know. I mean, this Chiefs offense when you put together a performance like they did last week against the Bucks, which is really impressive on the road and you saw how focused Patrick Mahomes is, I don’t think that’s going to die off against the Raiders defense this week, especially at Arrowhead, right? One of the toughest places to play for any opposing defense. The Raiders in past years had a little bit of success against the Chiefs. I don’t think the Chiefs have forgotten that they’re not going to play down to the Raiders in this case. And the Raiders are just one of these defenses that classically are a little too aggressive, they fly towards the ball, they fly forward.

There’s just a perfect defense for Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes to take advantage of. And then on the flip side, Derek Carr finally got [inaudible 01:15:01] right. They put up 32 points against the Broncos at home. They got their first win. That’s good for their confidence. Davante Adams did some great things in that game. I think the Raiders can get over 20 points one, and if that’s the case, I mean I expect the Chiefs to put up plenty of points on the Raiders. So I like this one to go over 51. I have it closer to 54.

TJ Rives:

And again, Mahomes has been spreading the ball around at different receivers. Kelce was effective at the beginning of the game, but he was getting it to Hardman or getting it to a couple of others as the game went on using the backs out of the backfield. They love the little running back, the rookie Pacheco out of Rutgers, they were running it with him as well. Scott Kellen, I know you do not have an official play here. You’re in Vegas. The Raiders and Josh McDaniels have to feel a little bit better, but Mahomes has really had their number, whether it’s been in Kansas City, Oakland now in Vegas or on the moon. He’s seemingly had their number. What are your thoughts if no official play to wrap it up here for Monday night football?

Scott Kellen:

Yeah, fear not Chris. I’m not going to say anything to go against that play and my numbers kind of make it where it is. As far as the side and the total, I actually have is at about 53 and a half. So I think there’s a decent chance it could go over the total as well. And Kansas City should be able to move the ball here. They’re number two in the league now in Big Pass place. Raiders number 29 in the league and giving up big pass plays. So KC should be able to move the ball from that standpoint and just yards per pass. Kansas City number nine, Vegas number 26. They’ve had some injuries back there.

I think Kansas City’s going to be able to move the ball. We’ll see what the Raiders can do though. Kansas City’s defense has been a little bit better than what we’re usually accustomed to, so they could hold the Raiders down a little bit. But that Raiders office is good enough that even if they’re getting blown out in this game, they should be able to get some scores at the end kind of, oh by the way, scores and help get this thing over the total as well. Again, I make the number kind of where it’s at, but there is a slight lean to the over for me as well in this game.

TJ Rives:

All right, well Davante Adams have a big night here. Will the Raiders be able to do something on the road in this one to avoid a one in four start, if that’s the case, if they don’t get the win again, the official play is Chris Farley’s play and that is on the over. He says points, points, points at least from the Chiefs and some from the Raiders. He’s over the total of 51 with that guys, that is a full show. Again, you got every game here on the BetUs NFL show. You’re going to get that every week, all 16 games, no bye weeks again this week, five weeks into the season by means of recap. Let’s take a look at what the guys have. I’m not going to go over everything that you see on the screen. You see they have a couple of parlays and teasers.

Each of the handicappers interesting that Chris is pairing up the Buccaneer play with the Viking play. In Scott’s case, he’s pairing up Green Bay and the Viking game as well on a teaser. And you see the rest of the plays the guys have on the board there. With that, I think we’re pretty well good. Final thought, Chris Farley before we’re gone, I know we’ve got Thursday night football. It begins Thursday night in Denver. It goes all the way to London with the Packers and the Giants, and then it finishes up with the Chiefs of the Raiders on Monday night. Going to be a busy weekend again. Any final thought?

Chris Farley:

Yeah, just try to anticipate regression, right? A lot of big favorites this weekend, so it could be easy to just pull that trigger and be like, Oh, of course all these big favorites are going to win. But yeah, this is the time of year where even the best teams, they start to stumble. We talked about the Eagles and even the worst teams start to pick it up a little bit and get some wins or at least keep games close. So anticipating a regression what this is all about.

TJ Rives:

No doubt. Scott Kellen, final thought from you. And I know you’re headed to England. Have you ever been there? Have you ever been in that Tottenham Hotspur Stadium before? It’s something else. I’ve had the chance to be there. What about it?

Scott Kellen:

Have not not been there? So super excited for that kind of echo what Chris said, You’re never really as good as your last game or as bad as your last game. And the NFL is a perfect league kind of really for that. And monitor injuries. The injuries are huge and just monitor that all the way up to really, quite frankly to Sunday. And obviously the injury report because there’s a lot of injuries out there right now and guys coming back that can help teams and all of a sudden make a team a little bit better than maybe they appeared as well. Because some of these guys can come off injured reserve here very quickly as well.

TJ Rives:

You’re making us a little bit better, my friend. Globe trotter be safe going to England for the Packers’, Giants game. We want to hear all about it at a future date on the BetUs NFL show. Scott Kellen. Thank you, We appreciate it. Chris Farley, thank you as well guys. Good luck with your plays. A pleasure always to be with you boys.

Scott Kellen:

Thanks TJ. Thanks everyone. Claire, everyone.