Brad Thomas:
1930 something. It was a long time ago. Back when the scores were like 10 to three and nine to six.
TJ Rives:
Yeah. So they’ve they’ve never been 8-0. The year that they lost to the Steelers at 7-0 and became 7-1, they won six more in a row and got to 13-1 and got all the way to the Super Bowl. I don’t know what’s going to happen with the Eagles. All right Farley, enough gushing over Philadelphia. I think it’s a legitimate point. Is it a ton of points to lay here? I know you do not have an official play. The Texans at home getting 14 in this one. Any quick thought, Chris?
Chris Farley:
I’m conflicted with that because obviously you want to get under the 14. I took a personal play on minus 13 myself and now we just sort Brandon Cooks is going to be out of this game. If anybody’s the cog on that offense besides Dameon Pierce, I guess, it would be Brandon Cooks. He’s a pretty good wide receiver. He hasn’t been as good this year and I think a lot of that is Davis Mills and just the way the Texans are playing on offense but they’re running out of ways to win this game. And I’m glad you brought up the point about they’ve never been 8-9 before, TJ, because I think the only way the Eagles lose this game is if they come in there flat and sleepy and don’t treat this like an important game. Because there’s still pros out there. Anything can happen.
But all signs point towards the Eagles dominating this contest from start to finish. They were in recovery mode. You saw them on the bikes after the Sunday game already prepping for this Thursday game because the mentality of this team seems to be in line with what Jalen Hurts is all about. You see he has a stoicism to him, stone cold. They’re very focused. I don’t think they’re going to take their collective feet off the gas, if you will. The thing that I hate about this for the Texans is last week was the spot. Everybody in the world knew that the Titans were going to run the ball. They were starting Malik Willis. And they still can’t stop the Titans. 300 total yards rushing against the Texans. It was unbelievable. And this is a team in the Eagles that rush. They have 35 rush attempts per game. That’s second overall in the NFL. They’re not going to stop. I don’t know how you can’t … I mean 14, 14 and a half is a lot of points. I wouldn’t necessarily take that. I think they make a great teaser leg. I like Brad’s play. And I would still have to lean Philly, believe it or not.
TJ Rives:
Could be a lot of running with Miles Sanders and company. Jalen Hurts scrambling around. So no official play from Chris. The play is Brad Thomas’. He says I’m in love with the Eagles in the first half of this game. Their team total over 14 and a half. And remember AJ Brown went off last week at receiver. He was pointing at Steelers. I scored on you, I scored on you. He may be doing the same thing tonight, guys, against Houston Texans in this one. One final point here now that we’ve made the official plays. I’m very curious, especially with the Phillies playing game five at home and the Eagles being undefeated, which is going to have the better viewership. I mean clearly the Phillies game means more because it is a game five in the World Series, but I don’t know that there’s not going to be several million more watching the Eagles in Philadelphia. Maybe a couple of million more watch the Eagles in the greater Philadelphia area just because it’s the Eagles and it’s a chance to be 8-0. Brad, you got a thought on that?
Brad Thomas:
I think it’s going to be one of those things where they’re going to have one eye on the Eagles. Once the Eagles go up a touchdown, they’re going to be like, “Okay, we know this story,” and not really care anymore and turn it to the Phillies. Because I feel like this is a must win game for the Phillies. Go up 3-2. But the Eagles, they’re going to be in cruise control all game.
TJ Rives:
Farley, the Phillies got the same number of hits that you, me, and Brad got in the game last night. Zero. So they got no hit. Is Philadelphia going to have split screens here? Is this mostly going to be allegiance to Eagles? Speculate. What do you think? Real quick and then we’ll move on.
Chris Farley:
No, I don’t think so. I think the eyes will be in the World Series because like Brad said, I think Eagles are the best first half team in the NFL and I think they’re going to go right up on the Texans. It’s usually what happens. So they’ll make the switch on their TVs. But I thought last night the Astros won the World Series overall because that was a statement. Shutting out the Phillies in Philly with that crowd and how amped everybody was. I would be surprised if the Phillies can turn things around at this point. But so far, Cinderella team, so who am I to count them out?
TJ Rives:
And they’ve hit the ball. All the way into last night they’d hit the ball on everybody all over the place. Didn’t get any hits last night. We’ll see what happens in the World Series. Again, Brad likes the Eagles to score a bunch early for his official play. Let’s move on to the Sunday slate in the NFL. Early game that will be in New England. The Patriots put the defensive clamps down on the Jets last week and Zach Wilson getting some interceptions. The Colts are in disarray to say the least. Going to Sam Ehlinger, the quarterback, firing the offensive coordinator this week. It’s not good in Indy. They get five here, they get five points on the road. The total is 40. Chris Farley, I’m back to you for an official play. What do we like on Indy at New England Sunday early?
Chris Farley:
Yeah. I’m going to take the under on this one. I think it sets up really well for it. Both teams are limiting offenses to around 19 to 20 points per game. So the data supports it, but both teams have struggling quarterbacks. And I guess Sam Ehlinger, I guess we can’t say necessarily he’s a struggling quarterback, but he’s a rookie quarterback and we know the way Bill Belichick is against rookie quarterbacks. I think it’s something like 22-6 straight up against them. I did like how Sam Ehlinger played last week though. I’ll say that. He made some great passes, including with about 22 seconds left, a pinpoint accuracy pass to Michael Pittman Jr. It was right in his hands. He just dropped it. If he catches that the Colts have a chance to win that game. But I thought he had a lot of poise in that.
It’s a different story when you’re going to New England up against Bill Belichick. And Mac Jones, something’s something’s up there. It was one of the things I got wrong this season because I thought Mac Jones was clearly the best rookie quarterback in the NFL last year. But his confidence is off. Five games, seven interceptions. Just doesn’t seem like the same guy. I’m sure their offensive coordinators have something to do with that. But Jonathan Taylor is coming into this a little banged up if he does play. And on the other end, the Colts are only allowing four yards per carry. So whatever these offenses choose to do, I don’t know if they’re going to have a lot of success in this game. Two pretty darn good defenses still. I have this lined at plus three and a half, so I will say I show some value on the Colts. But with everything going on there in Indy and you’re going to New England, I’m not that willing to pull the trigger on that, so I’d rather take under 40 in this matchup between two above average defenses against two pretty bad offenses at this point.
TJ Rives:
Yeah. What in the world has gone on with Mac Jones? Yes, he’s injured and of course looking over his shoulder. They benched him on Monday Night Football with how bad that was. Brad Thomas, any thoughts here on a game where obviously, if New England can win it, they’re now back around the AFC playoff picture more so than Indianapolis. Any thoughts, Brad?
Brad Thomas:
Yeah, I’d probably lean New England. I’d probably let the line continue to fall down. Line opened up at six and now it’s almost down to I think five right now. For the Colts, they struggle to protect the quarterback and you have Bill Belichick scheming against a bad offensive line and a rookie quarterback. That’s something that he just licks his chops with. And I think in this game it won’t be as important to have Mac Jones flying all over the place because they don’t really need to keep pace with the Colts. I don’t see the Colts coming out here and scoring 28 points. So for them, it’s just they need to stick with Rhamondre Stevenson, run the ball and then protect the quarterback when Mac Jones drops back to pass. And then more importantly, make life very difficult for Sam Ehlinger and the Colts. So I do lean Patriots here, but it’s just hard, man. It’s really hard. The garbage that we’ve seen out of Mac Jones, it’s hard to want to lay five. Maybe two and a half, probably.
TJ Rives:
And we also saw New England run the ball with some success earlier in the year. That’s also dissipated here the last couple of weeks. We will find out. So no official play from Brad. The official play is for Chris Farley and he’s going under the total here. Under the total of 40 for that early game in Foxboro, Patriots and New England. Let’s stick with the AFC East, shall we? The top team in the AFC East as the Buffalo Bills. They’ll play host of those same New York Jets. My goodness. Is it my imagination or have we seen more 12, 13, even higher point lines in the first half of the season than any NFL season I can remember. There’s another one. The Bills favored by 13 and a half against the J-E-T-S, mess, mess, mess. The total is 47 in this one. We’re going to have an official play from Brad Thomas on this. What do you make? Buffalo off the win over Green Bay where they were impressive enough. The Jets again were a mess against New England with the Wilson interceptions, the problems they have. What do you make of this and what’s the official play please?
Brad Thomas:
Yeah. I’ll say if you start betting on trends, I think this is the time of year where a lot of the trend betters, the guys who don’t do actually any research, kind of like more casual betters, they’re going to start to fall in into some traps. At the beginning of the year, underdogs were screaming at about 64%. The trends for two teams that are playing so far this week, since 2020 favorites of 13 or more on the road are 3-10 against the spread. So that applies to the Eagles and the Bills. I think that this line is actually kind of funny because I think the Bills have a chance to come in here and absolutely shut them down. My favorite play though is on the under. The Bills so far have hit five out of six unders and a lot of their unders and totals are set at 47 points.
Why I like this here is because we already know what the Bills bring. The Bills are bringing a great pass rush. Now they get your Tre’Davious White back. I don’t see this Jets team with Zach Wilson who threw three picks last game, doing much and scoring much on this Bills team. And a lot of that has to do with the loss of Breece Hall. At the beginning of the season. I knew Breece Hall would be a good running back, but I didn’t know how effective he would be in year one. Holy smokes. Dude was an absolute firecracker. Such a massive loss for that team. They tried to mix in a little bit of Carter, a little bit of Robinson. They just weren’t getting anything going on the ground because he was that explosive of a running back. Then you have to put the ball in Zach Wilson’s hands a lot more.
And now on the other side of the ball for the Jets, the Jets have a top 10 defense. I think they’re ranked ninth and DVOA for defense. Robert Saleh, that’s what he hangs his hat on. He’s one of the few defensive coaches in the NFL who is legitimately a defensive mastermind. A lot of that has to do with scheming. And then the biggest weapon for the Buffalo Bills will probably get neutralized by Sauce Gardner. Sauce Gardner is living up to all the hype and will probably be defensive player of the year. So for me, I just think that this is probably going to be like a 28 to 3 game. I know it sounds close for the home team to only score three points, but it’s going to be some mental lapses that will be the only way that the Jets get inside the end zone.
TJ Rives:
We have seen, Brad and for Chris, we have seen that the Jets did win as an outright big underdog. We saw that there in the live chat coming through. But that was with Breece Hall. That’s another thing to factor in here. That’s the point that Brad was making. He got hurt in their win over Denver. Out for the year with a knee injury. Chris Farley, no official play for you. The Bills again, with Josh Allen, look fantastic on offense. Any thoughts here if no official play?
Chris Farley:
Yeah. I’m hearing some sharp people in the betting community who I really respect and they’re like, “Oh, I’ll stay away from this one. Watch out for the Jets.” And I really don’t see it. I mean the problem here with this game for me is that Josh Allen didn’t have a great game against the Packers. 13 for 25, 218 yards, two interceptions. Maybe if he had an easy time and they blew out the Packers at home, it’d be one thing. But I think Josh Allen and that offense is going to come out just as aggressive as they always do. And to Brad’s point, I completely agree. The Jets are going to be inept in my opinion without Breece Hall on offense. We saw Zach Wilson kind come into who he really is last week. Three interceptions, forcing the ball. Guy has great arm talent, pure arm talent, but his decision making and poise on the field is not good.
And maybe that’s what they look at more in the draft is arm talent, but man, oh man, I think it’s going to be more of the same. This is a really good defense he’s facing. Mike LaFleur is learning how to create some innovative schemes for the Jets at offensive coordinator, but I really don’t think he has the personnel. I think Breece Hall just really opened things up for them and they could lean on him. So it’s just one of those games, I have a strong lean on the Bills even at this line because I don’t see how the Jets score points. I think an under is a good look. I agree with Brad, I think a Jets team total under is another good look because Bills could go off on the Jets. The Jets aren’t going to go off on the Bills.
TJ Rives:
All right. Brad Thomas says not a lot of points and maybe even a decisive Buffalo low scoring win. He goes on the record and says give me the under in this AFC East matchup between Buffalo and the Jets.
All right, we move along here. Again, thank you for finding us on Thursday for the live BetUs show. We’re here at one Eastern time. Get your comments going and rolling, questions, et cetera. We’ll see those as we go. Miami Dolphins and the Chicago Bears. The Dolphins off a come from behind win. They were down 14 points at Detroit. Tua and that offense, ever so explosive, came from behind and won it. Bears meanwhile got whipped up on by the Dallas Cowboys in Big D. All right, so Chicago back home getting five. The total is 45 and a half. We do not have an official play on this one. Chris Farley, I’m going to come back to you. Are you a believer in what they’re doing in South Florida right now? Because the offense continues to roll through the first half of the season. I know you don’t have an official play, but man, Tua and Tyreek Hill and Waddle and Gesicki, the tight end. I mean they have made a ton of chunk plays, big plays and scored a bunch of points. Are you a believer, Chris?
Chris Farley:
Yeah. This is my fault. I meant to put this on the show sheet so maybe we can still get it on there. But I really like the over in this game. I am absolutely a believer in the Dolphins. Not getting to the Super Bowl or anything because you need a little bit more experience than that. But this offense is humming. I know they faced the Lions last week. I mean they are the worst defense in the NFL right now, but the Bears are showing that they’re kind of selling on their defense. Robert Quinn is one thing. Not in his prime anymore. But to get rid of Roquan Smith, a young player, versatile player, a leader on their defense, that’s going to be a huge loss for the Bears. And now here come the Dolphins who we see how tough it is to guard Jaylen Waddle, Tyreek Hill on a week to week basis.
Defenses just can’t do it. Because they can stretch the field, they can get those underneath passes. Mike Gesicki, I think I’m saying his name right, he’s a very formidable-
TJ Rives:
Gesicki. Correct.
Chris Farley:
He’s a very formidable tight end as well. They just have a lot of weapons and I love that the Dolphins also got Bradley Chubb. I think he’s going to make a huge difference for them in their ability to pressure the quarterback. But Bears are embracing their offense more. Justin Fields is impressing me now on a weekly basis. The Cowboys couldn’t stop him in the second half last week. I thought they had a chance to still cover that line even though obviously the Cowboys dropped 49 points on the Bears’ defense. But the Bears were going up and down the field in the second half. I think Justin Fields is kind of in a flow state. I don’t know if Bradley Chubb is going to really completely stop that just because he came over there this week. So I think the Bears are able to put up some points, maybe chasing the dolphins in this one. And I don’t think anyone’s going to stop the Dolphins right now, aside from maybe the Broncos and some of the more elite defenses in the NFL. So it’s going to be nice in Chicago too. Typically, that’s something you have to look at in Chicago at this time of year, but it’s going to be like 55 and sunny. So I love the over in this one. If we could still get that on the show sheet, that’d be-
TJ Rives:
All right. We’ll see if we can do that. The Dolphin defensive line has been good. He brings up a great point as well with Bradley Chubb being added to that. Brad Thomas, I know you do not have an official play here on Dolphins on the road for a second straight week here with Tua back and making the big throws. Any other thoughts here to add on to what Chris was saying?
Brad Thomas:
Yeah, this is the game where I’d probably like to look at a player prop when the player props come up on BetUS where I’d want Mostert probably rushing yards over. The Bears are terrible at stopping the run and they’re going to do so much. Replacing a guy like Roquan Smith is one thing, but already they had such a tall task ahead of them in stopping this … I’m going to call it a three-headed monster. And the two heads are Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle and the third is Tua because Tua all off season was talked about and weak arm, noodle arm, poor decision making, and so far he’s looked great every single game that he’s played outside the ones that were plagued with injuries.
TJ Rives:
Who in the world … Can I interrupt? Who’s been calling him a noodle arm that’s watched Alabama football, or watched him throwing the ball in Miami?
Brad Thomas:
Exactly. It’s crazy.
TJ Rives:
Get a clue. I mean the guy puts lasers where the ball has to be so that’s that’s just foolish. Continue on. I had to interject that.
Brad Thomas:
No, it’s totally … I was defending him wholeheartedly. Big Tua fan. But if I were to talk about a side, it would probably be the Dolphins. The Bears, they do well moving the ball but they’re in sell mode. I don’t care about them getting Chase Claypool. It’s the defense that … Offense is this new age hot thing, but still, defense wins championships, defense covers spreads. And I just think it’s going to be a tough task to stop this team. But five is a lot to lay on the road in a game where I’m not 100% sold on stopping Justin Fields. So that’s why the only reason no play for me, but a lean, it’s got to be Miami.
TJ Rives:
All right. Fair enough. Now, one of the fun things we do, we do have the BetUS College Basketball show that’s coming starting next week. As if I don’t have enough going on on BetUS, I’m going to add that to what we do. So Farley, what we do on that show, if we go ahead and add something officially on the show is we raise the cup, the mug or the glass. So you’re raising the glass to Miami and the over. Am I correct? That’s the official sign right there on the Dolphins to lock it in.
Chris Farley:
Yeah. Just the over, but I lean Miami for sure.
TJ Rives:
All right. Lean the over there for the total in the game and I believe that total’s 45 and a half on the BetUS line. We’ll insert that in for later on on the best bets.
Okay. We talked a lot of NFC East. Three games in a row. We do have an NFC North team that we were talking there. Let’s talk another NFC North team. Do you realize, do you understand the Minnesota Vikings are 6-1? They now travel to take on the Washington Commanders. And lookie here. Taylor Heinicke has suddenly sparked the Commanders to an upset win over the Packers at home and then a win in the final minute at Indianapolis last week. Commanders get three and a half at home. The total is 43 and a half in this game. All right, we’ll go back to Chris Farley because this is going to be part of a teaser play for you. What do you like in this matchup? Vikings in the nation’s capital.
Chris Farley:
Yeah. I have two plays on this game. One of them is Washington plus three and a half and then I’m going to tease Washington up just in case we see some of this crazy variance of weird anomalies that we’re seeing in the NFL this year. But I said a few weeks ago, the Bengals at the Saints is one of my favorite plays of the year. This might be my second favorite. The Commanders are playing really well right now. And some of that, I think a lot of that is because their identity has changed with Taylor Heinicke at quarterback. We’ve been saying it on this show, but I’ll just reiterate it. The guy has a blue collar mentality. He can scramble, he doesn’t give up on these plays and he has chemistry with Scary Terry McLaurin, who is a legit star in this league. He’s a very good wide receiver.
They have multiple running backs that they can carry out there and the Vikings are still fake news. Somehow every week, this Vikings team, they cover, they win. They’re a good team. Don’t get me wrong. They have a lot of talent on offense. But last week it was a muffed punt by the Cardinals that … So they end up covering that line. They have a short field. Maybe something like that happens in this game too. We’ll see. But I think it’s much less likely against the Commanders team who looks good on both sides of the ball. They’re playing a lot better on defense and Kirk Cousins, we know, he’s going back to Washington DC. It’s one of those spots where Kirk-
TJ Rives:
You like that, right? You like that if you’re Kirk Cousins.
Chris Farley:
I like that for an anti-Kirk Cousins take. Because Kirk, he can get shook in some of these environments. We’ve seen it before. When he went to Philly, it happened this year. I think when he goes to Washington, they don’t have the best home field advantage, but this is a spot for the Commanders who have now kind of turned around their season. They’re a little feisty. They’re going to fight hard in this game. That defense can get after the quarterback. They’re top five in sack pressure or pressure rate. And I think this is a really good spot for the Commanders. You’re giving me three and a half so I get the hook on top of it. I’ll take Washington three and a half and I’ll tease that up to 10 with another leg to the teaser that I’ll talk about later.
TJ Rives:
All right. Fair enough on that. We see Mike is asking a question and again. Keep them coming in the live chat. I see the audience growing as well. We’ll take your questions as we go along on the live show Thursday at one. Brad Thomas, any thought here on the Commanders maybe being empowered by the fact that Daniel Snyder, who vowed to never allow the nickname to be changed, that got changed, he vowed to never sell the team is apparently now being wink, wink nudged to sell the team, whatever you want to call it. Do you think that matters on the field to the viewer’s question there for the Commanders and might in inspire them a little more in this or do you think that’s overblown by the media and fans?
Brad Thomas:
First I’m going to say this. For my final paper in grad school I actually talked about the corruption of Snyder and probably the most fun I’ve ever had talking about football in an academic sense.
TJ Rives:
What kind of grade did you get? Did you get the A?
Brad Thomas:
I graduated with all A’s so-
TJ Rives:
There we go.
Brad Thomas:
Pretty lucky there. But no, I don’t think it’s going to affect the players. I don’t think it’s going to add additional motivation. These guys are there to do one thing and one thing only. That’s win football games. They try not to concern themselves too much about what’s going on up above. They want to cash their paychecks and they want to win games. But I do think Washington is the smart side in this game. I just can’t get over the fact that somehow the Vikings win these games by four and five points. I was on the Cardinals last week and I feel like I got robbed of a cover there. It was the smart side, it was the right side. And I think the same thing here. This Vikings team keeps coming. I have them to win the NFC North and I’m very excited about that ticket looking absolutely phenomenal with the Packers stinking.
But I just don’t think they’re as complete. They’re not a complete finished product yet. They’re getting there. The addition of TJ Hockenson is going to be even better. Maybe next year they’re going to be a Super Bowl contender if they can rebuild that defense a little bit more. It’s aging a little bit. But man, Taylor Heinicke has the intangibles that you want from a leader. That’s what I’m so excited about this Commanders team. I said it, once he got the nod saying he’s going to start with Carson Wentz on the IR, that’s when you start backing them to cover spreads. The team plays harder for him. They know that he’s not going to lose them games like Carson Wentz does. So yeah, it’s the smart side. The only reason I didn’t bet it is because I’m terrified of betting against this Vikings team who always get these miracle covers.
TJ Rives:
Yeah. Understandable. They’ve pulled several games out, including the London game against the Saints in the overtime doing that. Again for Heinicke, he not only has the two back-to-back covers here this year, he did well as an underdog three or four times in the 2021 season. And remember he was at the very end in the post-season playing in the playoff game against Tom Brady and that was a cover by the Washington Football Team. Empty stadium, et cetera. But in the playoff game with the Buccaneers, they found a way. So we’ll see if it continues. Chris Farley’s got a couple of plays on it. Let’s lock him in. What else do you have there? We’re going to lock you in on your two plays with the Commanders and as well as the tease. What else?
Chris Farley:
Yeah. If I could just add something really quick. Great example of how good Taylor Heinicke has been is last week, that was a tough environment at Indy. They were down what, 16 to 7 heading into the fourth quarter. And that final drive, that’s all Heinicke. I mean if you look at the play by play, it’s a throw, it’s a scramble for a first down, another throw, another scramble. He put the team on his back and made it happen in a tough environment. That’s why you got to love this team as a covering team if your quarterback can do that.
TJ Rives:
Again, he’s doubling up on Washington as the doggy. And by the way, I agreed with that pick on Three Dog Thursday, our brother show that’s on BetUS TV’s channel right now. I love the Commanders in this spot and he’s also got it as part of a two team tease that’s coming later. One more quick thing … By the way, look at this. Antonio and the guys at BetUS are all over it. You can go check out Three Dog Thursday when we’re done. Only underdogs, no totals, no favorites. College football and the NFL in combination there. We’ve had both of you guys on that show already. Go check that out. One more thing. For all the talk, and we’re going to talk Carolina in a couple of minutes here and their matchup with the Bengals. For all the talk of DJ Moore taking the helmet off and the 15 yard penalty and whether it was the right call, Terry McLaurin did the same thing on the long pass play down to the one or two yard line. He did the same thing and took the helmet off and was celebrating on the field. No flag. I saw you signaling timeout.
Chris Farley:
Because they called a timeout and I think that’s-
TJ Rives:
But still, he’s on the field of play with the helmet off running around, which is the thing they don’t want. Regardless of whether there’s a timeout or not, they don’t want you on the field of play. I mean technically I’m not a Carolina Panther guy. Thomas knows this. He’s not on the field of play. He’s in the end zone up in the stands, up in the front row, Lambeau leap, and they’re calling a flag on him.
Chris Farley:
The Panthers should have won that game obviously, but-
TJ Rives:
Oh yeah.
Chris Farley:
But I do believe when you call timeout though, players are allowed to remove their helmet, right? Get some Gatorade, et cetera.
TJ Rives:
But I mean, he’s got his helmet off and he’s doing the … He wasn’t sipping Gatorade, Farley. I don’t know what he was doing there after that. I’m just pointing that out. It’s a good point on the timeout. I’m just pointing that out. So he’s doubling up on the Commanders for that matchup.
All right, let’s move on. Stick with the NFC North. What do we make of this game, please? Green Bay Packers at the Detroit Lions here. The Packers can’t get out of their own way, yet they’re favored on the road. The Lions can’t stop anybody. They play nothing but wild games. Give me some help here. The total 49 and a half. That’s a lot of points. Brad Thomas, we are back to you. You have an official play, you brave soul, on this game. What do we like and why?
Brad Thomas:
Oh my god. Brad Thomas is in treacherous waters, backing the Packers minus three and a half. Not only am I backing a team who’s underwhelmed all season, I’m backing a team who’s underwhelmed and they’re on the road. But for me, man, this Detroit team, they’re a dumpster fire right now. Dan Campbell is on the hot seat. As much as I like Dan Campbell and as much as I think that he had his back up against the wall even when he became the coach, I think the Packers here, this is a good get right spot for them. There’s still a lot of season left and most importantly, what the Packers need to get back to doing is the fundamentals of football. And I hate to be the boring guy. They need to run the ball. The Lions are not good at stopping the run. Now you have Aaron Jones, who had an amazing couple of weeks and now AJ Dylan, who is a little disappointing, but they haven’t been feeding him as much as they could.
Now they don’t have to rely as much on this young, unexperienced receiver corps. But if that means anything, if you want to talk about this receiver corps, let’s talk about how bad this Lion’s defense is. This is the receiver corps that you want. I mean, this is the secondary that you want to go up against. I thought they would be so much improved from year to year, yet they are not. Both teams are terrible against the spread. This was a Lion’s team last year who covered so many spreads. But generally what happens, and you’re seeing it starting to kind of happen to Atlanta a little bit, it’ll probably happen more a little bit later, is they start to get overvalued. Teams like Detroit and Atlanta were undervalued early in the season, but now the value starts to shift a little bit. I think we take advantage of that value with the Packers. The Packers are going to win this game. I probably believe they win this game by seven or eight. No TJ Hockenson is such a huge loss for the Lions. I mean, it’s going to be a gross game, guys. I’m not promising you this is going to be a pretty cover, but I still think we get it done.
TJ Rives:
Not only do they trade Hockenson, they trade him within the division to the Vikings, which that used to be unforgivable. You never did that. But that’s what they did. Chris Farley, to you here with a thought on this. Detroit’s been good at the beginning of games getting out to leads. They fired the secondary coach this week too. Dan Campbell scapegoated him in the aftermath of the loss. Not the defensive coordinator. He fired the secondary coach. Ugly. A viewer’s asking his Lazard out. I haven’t seen anything about him practicing on Thursday. I know he was limited on Wednesday, the Green Bay receiver. Chris Farley, any thoughts if no official play from you?
Chris Farley:
Yeah, no, I totally agree with everything Brad just said. I think this is a great spot for the Packers. I have a very strong lean on them here. Just to make a point about how tough contests are, the Circa Sports Circa Millions lines just came out and of course the Packers came out as minus three and a half. It’s minus three in a lot of places, but they know how to make this more difficult. Still, I think the Packers can cover both of those lines, minus three and minus three and a half. The Packers did a few things right last week. I know they still lost by margin against the Bills, but they ran for over 200 yards last week. Aaron Jones had a huge game.
Brad Thomas:
Yeah, he did.
Chris Farley:
Of course that was overshadowed by the loss. But if they can get the run game going, which they should be able to against the Detroit Lions who can’t stop anybody in any capacity, this is a great spot for their run game to get going, a great spot for Aaron Rodgers to get going. And started to connect with some of his wide receivers last week. Like Doubs made a few great catches. Deandre Swift too. Either he’s not going to play or he is not going to be 100%. And that offense on the lions is different when he’s not playing. So now they’re without Hockenson, probably without him. Totally agree with Brad. Dumpster fire for the Lions. Even though they’re at home, I don’t think it means much and it’s really true now, red alarm. The Packers have to start winning and surging now. If they’re going to turn it on and make it to the playoffs and make it dent here, this is a great spot for them to make it happen. Kind of reminds me of the Bengals spot against the Saints a few weeks ago. I think Aaron Rodgers and this offense gets right and they do cover this line.
TJ Rives:
Interesting. All right. Again, if the playoffs were to start today, how about this stat? The Packers, the Buccaneers and the Rams would be out of the NFC playoff picture. Who had that even a month ago? And yet that is reality right now on how bad these teams have been. In particular the Buccaneers and the Packers were in October. They would be out of the playoffs right now. Not even in the wildcard picture. So let’s see if Green Bay gets its act together. Again, Brad Thomas has the official play on this. It is on the Packers minus three and a half with a mostly endorsement there from Chris Farley with what he likes in that one as well.
All right, moving on here again, we rock along on the BetUS show to the Atlanta Falcons and the LA Chargers. Atlanta back at home after the Wild win with Carolina last week. A game that arguably they blew twice. At the end of regulation, giving up the long pass touchdown to DJ Moore, only to be given second life when Eddie Pineiro missed the extra point after the 15 yard penalty. Then Mariota throws the interception in overtime and Pineiro has a chance to end the game again and misses a field goal again. So Atlanta lived like four lives, I think, in that game last week. All right. The spread is three. The Chargers off the bye. The total is 49 and a half in this one. Let’s swing it back to Chris Farley to lead off. There’s not an official play from either of you on this, but Chris, give me a thought or two with Chargers off the bye in the ATL.
Chris Farley:
Yeah, this is one of those situations where as a bettor, you want to take the Chargers, right? I mean the obvious talent that they have. They’re coming off of bye. They are 3-0 against the spread on the road this year. Something they absolutely did not do last year. So they’re playing a little better on the road. But now Keenan Allen just had a setback. Mike Williams, I don’t know if he’s playing. Probably not playing in this game, right?
Brad Thomas:
No.
Chris Farley:
Something just again, smells fishy to me about this setup for the Falcons. And I know the Falcons may be somewhat fake news, especially on defense. Again, a big reason to take the Chargers in this one, you would think, that secondary for Atlanta is all banged up. So Justin Herbert should be able to throw all over them. But again, Allgeier and Huntley, they’re running well for the Falcons. Somehow their run game just keeps going. Cordarrelle Patterson is coming back. They are at home. And sometimes when a team gets away with a phony win like that, it’s like, okay, let’s button things up to make sure that doesn’t happen again. This is a game where the Chargers should win and cover, but would not be surprised again if the Falcons either covered this or even won this game straight up. I don’t want anything to do with this game.
TJ Rives:
All right. Brad Thomas, what about Marcus Mariota’s play? And again, Atlanta, as it stands right now, I see that Bucko Bruce over your shoulder in the shot. When we keep seeing that, you know that my allegiance, if you’re on this show for the fans is I’m on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers radio broadcast. The Falcons are in first place at 4-4. The Buccaneers at 3-5, the Saints at 3-5. Give Arthur Smith’s team credit. They’ve continued to battle on, even with Cordarrelle Patterson hurt, they’ve continued to battle on and find a way to get a couple of wins. Any thoughts here on them hosting Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler, who’s been really good as of late, especially scoring touchdowns, even if you don’t have an official play?
Brad Thomas:
Yeah, I lean the Chargers, but for me, it’s hard to trust a team who has a bad coach. Can we believe that I’m actually saying that? Staley was up for a Coach of the Year nomination and I’m saying he’s a bad coach. You’re a defensive minded coach, yet your team sucks at defense? That mind boggles me right there. And then for the Atlanta Falcons, they’re like a train that never stops. And I do say I have to appreciate that. But if they want to get in a shootout and they get behind, I don’t think they have the caliber of quarterback in Mariota to come from behind. I think Justin Herbert is still going to be able to handle his business throwing the guys like Deandre Carter and throwing to Palmer. I’m just going to have to side with the Chargers, but I don’t mind not playing this game. This is a game where I look at it where we might get some entertainment out of it. We might get some live lines, seeing what’s happened, but I just don’t trust either team to put my money on them. However, both teams cover in their positions with the Chargers on the road and the Falcons at home. I think the Falcons are 3-1 against the spread at home, and they probably should have covered that one home game and been undefeated against the spread.
TJ Rives:
Okay. But for now, no play on this one with Chargers off the bye week again, coming all the way east in an early start in Atlanta for the matchup with the Falcons.
Let’s continue. The second half of the slate will begin with the Carolina Panthers and the Cincinnati Bengals. As I mentioned, Carolina, right in that game. A shoulda, coulda, woulda won that game in Atlanta, even though they lost in overtime 37-34. Meanwhile, Bengals on the short week, they got bludgeoned by the Brownies, by the in-state rivals. Couldn’t protect Joe Burrow again. Sacked, harassed over and over again. Yet, Cincinnati, an eight and a half point favorite. That line has actually gone up in the last day or so by a point or a point and a half. Total, 42 and a half for this matchup. Chris Farley, we are back to you for an official play on the Panthers who are playing hard for the interim coach Steve Wilkes and a matchup at Cincinnati.
Chris Farley:
Yeah, you got to give the Panthers a lot of credit. Playing hard for Steve Wilkes, indeed. PJ Walker staying loose out there, getting the ball down field. They’re finding their run game without Christian McCaffrey. That offense has looked way more formidable with Baker Mayfield out. It really should have been 2-1 with PJ Walker at the helm but their offense has looked really good the past few weeks or just, I should say a lot better than they have. But I think this is a trap game for the Panthers. I could sit here and I could talk stats and trends and all that kind of stuff, but when you see history enough repeat itself, this is a great spot for the Bengals. They were embarrassed on Monday Night Football. Completely embarrassed by the Browns. Dominated by the Browns. And I love that Joe Burrow said no excuse, right?
Yeah, Ja’Marr Chase not being a part of the team that night, it stinks. I mean, obviously takes a big component of their offense off the field, but there’s no excuse. That’s what Joe Burrow is saying. The Bengals are going back home. They’re at .500 now. They’re in a division where the Ravens just got a little better. The Ravens now have Roquan Smith. That’s a significant thing for the Ravens defense. Steelers, forget about it. But maybe the Browns can hang around if they could win a few more games. The Bengals want to win this division. They’re in a great spot. The Panthers can’t get a sack, by the way. Panthers are a pretty good defense, but they don’t get pressure on the quarterback that often. I think Joe Burrow can thrive in this environment. There’s a reason why off of an embarrassing blowout like that against a Panthers team that’s playing well, this line is still this big. I think the Bengals blowout the Panthers.
TJ Rives:
Ooh, he likes it in a blowout in this situation. I was on the opposite side on Three Dog Thursday, to plug that again. You can go check it out with the college handicappers, Colby, Dan and Brian Edwards. I loved the Panthers in this spot. And maybe it’s recency bias for me, Brad Thomas, because I saw them two weeks ago at field level and they put it on the Buccaneers on both sides of the ball playing hard. Interesting point here. Brian Burns is the pass rushing defensive end. He did not get traded, obviously. Reportedly, the Rams offered the Panthers two number one picks and the Panthers still didn’t trade Brian Burns. So maybe he’s a little more relieved he’s staying in Carolina and the Bengals offensive line is giving up sacks. So maybe it’s, I don’t know, maybe a Brian Burns prop play maybe in this game. Any thoughts, Brad Thomas, if no official play?
Brad Thomas:
I’m actually going to side with you here, TJ. No official play for me. Everything Chris said makes total sense, but let me talk about it for how I see this game for the Bengals and why I think they’re going to struggle and they struggled last week. A lot of people think Ja’Marr Chase is this great deep threat, this great deep ball weapon. But what a lot of people forget and fail to realize is when you have a guy who is always a threat to beat you deep, he’s getting a lot of soft coverage. What’s that mean? When the pocket is collapsing on Joe Burrow, they can run a few more routes in their offense for Ja’Marr Chase that are short routes that get the ball out of his hands. You’ve seen it time and time again where he’s getting eight and nine receptions in a game.
And a lot of those receptions are these three and four yarders. That’s because Joe Burrow’s using it as a safety valve and he also has the ability to break those free. But man, the Bengals cannot run the ball. So what are you afraid of in this Bengals team? You can get to the quarterback. They can’t run the ball. And the run defense for the Panthers is pretty good. They can’t get to the quarterback either, but I think against the Bengals side, who’s offensive line looks God awful, I think they get there. Let me just say this one thing. You guys know I love me some gritty, in the trenches football. I love talking about it. Jonah Williams has been getting absolutely cooked. I don’t care. I can probably get to the quarterback the way he’s been playing. Simple swim moves. They need to address that, and I don’t think that happens anytime soon. So for me, I would lean Panthers, but there’s total reason why this line keeps going up. Because you’re going to have to trust PJ Washington to score some … Oh my God. I said his name wrong.
TJ Rives:
PJ Walker. Yeah, PJ Walker.
Brad Thomas:
PJ Walker. You’re going to have to trust PJ Walker to score some points. One last thing about this game, because I want to get this out here. There are two props that I’m going to be eyeing. Terrence Marshall over receiving yards. They have a great connection between the two. And then Terrence Marshall, longest reception. I’d probably play it up to 17 and a half when both those NFL lines are released.
TJ Rives:
And I don’t know what the Burns sack number is on the props on BetUS, but he may be good for a couple and maybe more against Burrow and company. Miles Garrett was ting off on Monday night. Nonetheless, Chris Farley says Bengals here for an official play and says lay those points in the jungle. I guess it’s still the jungle, right? It used to be Riverfront Stadium was the Jungle with Boomer Esiason and a Icky Woods. So it’s the new jungle, I guess, in Cincinnati for the defending AFC Champs. Can they get a win? Can they keep pace with Baltimore, who we’re going to talk about in a little bit? We will find out.
Again, thank you to the live audience. The show, guys, is growing and growing right now in the live audience. If you’re just finding us, we’re here live as you see on Thursdays at one Eastern time. If you’re finding us later Thursday, on the weekend, I know a lot of people come and find the segments of the show. You get every game in depth on this show so thank you on behalf of Chris and Brad. Thank you for finding us and everybody at BetUS as the show goes on. Because guys, we’ve about tripled or quadrupled the live audience since the show got in the first few minutes. Keep it up. Keep hitting that like button below. Make sure you’re subscribing, make sure you’re finding us. We love that. Keep going along here.
We will go along here. I’d love to try to sell you on the next game that we’re about to talk about. I’ll do my best. Las Vegas Raiders, Jacksonville Jaguars. All right. Does this have any redeeming value? Raiders, a one point favorite off of being shut out by the 2-5 Saints last week. The Jaguars go all the way to England, blow the game and lose to the Denver Broncos. Now they’re back home. Our total is 48 in this game. We do not have an official play. Brad Thomas, you and I are in the Sunshine State. How do we dress this up here? This has stink bomb written all over it, does it not? Any thoughts if no official play?
Brad Thomas:
I tried so hard, so hard to get behind the Las Vegas Raiders. I literally wrote down all of these great stats and all these facts and the reliable components, but they’re not a good football team. And how I would expect the Raiders to beat the Jacksonville Jaguars here is to get a lot of pressure on the quarterback. Jacksonville’s actually done pretty well keeping Trevor Lawrence upright and a lot of that has to do with the mobility of Lawrence. But they’re also coming back from overseas without the bye week to stop that. Young teams I think this affects more and they have one of the youngest teams in the NFL.
But man, I don’t trust this Raiders team. We can talk about the bounce back angle after getting absolutely destroyed by the Saints emotionally and physically. One play that I would suggest looking at, I think the line’s going to open at minus one 40, is Daniel Carlson over one and a half field goals. I know that it’s going to open out at a pretty nice price because the Jaguars don’t allow a lot of field goals. That’s because teams are normally scoring touchdowns. But I don’t think that the Raiders are going to come in here and just blow out the Jags, hence the one point spread. So they’ll keep it in. Daniel Carlson has hit this number in the last 14 of 15 games. He missed … Oh, actually it was last 13 of 15.
TJ Rives:
Well, and it’s interesting because I have him in both fantasy leagues and they’re getting dusted last week and I’m like, “Can I get a Carlson field goal at least for my fantasy league? No? No? Guess not. Okay. We’re going to get shut out in New Orleans.” So I like that. It’s an interesting prop if not an official play.
Farley, put your best face on here on this one. The Raiders, by the way, did not go back to Las Vegas. They actually flew to the Tampa Bay area and have been practicing in Sarasota, Florida at IMG Academy and then will venture three and a half or four hours to the northwest or northeast to play Jacksonville on the weekend. But I mean, how do you get behind a team that looked like by the third quarter they were checked out on Josh McDaniels in that game? I don’t know. Any thoughts if no official play, Chris?
Chris Farley:
Yeah. It feels like that seat’s getting a little warm, isn’t it, for Josh McDaniels already. You can’t show up like that. When you’re starting to win again, your offense is starting to come together. Lifeless. Really lifeless against the Saints. If the Raiders played like they did against the Chiefs every week, that’s the version of the Raiders that we all think that they’re capable of on both sides of the ball. But it really has-
TJ Rives:
Can I interrupt? Can I interrupt? On that point, how much did that loss take out of them? Has it still got a carryover effect right now? The way they lost it and how they looked in the Superdome last week.
Chris Farley:
Yeah, yeah. I mean, I don’t know. I just hate this game so much. I mean, Brad took my spiel because if you passed it to me first TJ, I was going to say, I’m looking through the stats, I’m fixing my invisible glasses. There’s nothing going on. I can’t find an edge to this game. It probably is Carlson. That’s probably the play to take. I mean both teams are top five against the run and you have two pretty good running backs here. Josh Jacobs. Travis Etienne had a great game last week. Again, it got overshadowed because of the way the Jaguars just can’t finish games. So it just feels like if you want to bet on this game, you’re going to be forced to pick which quarterback you trust more. I guess I trust Derek Carr and that passing game more. Trevor Lawrence very up and down, still mistake prone. So I lean the Raiders in this one, but how can pick the Raiders after what you saw last week?
TJ Rives:
Amen.
Brad Thomas:
Exactly.
Chris Farley:
A team isn’t fighting for their coach. They’re not fighting for even the sum of their parts. So I don’t know. There’s something off there already in Vegas and Doug Pederson’s a pretty good coach. I would give him a strong coaching edge in this one. So there’s just a lot of competing narratives. Ugly game.
TJ Rives:
Well, but again, and I know there’s no play from either handicapper here, Jacksonville looked like they had maybe found something, turned the corner. Remember they had the win, the shutout win 24 nothing over the Colts. They went out and blasted the Chargers and they’ve done almost nothing since then. So I don’t know. All right. So among all of the big NFL games, this ain’t one of them. So no official play on the Raiders and the Jaguars in Jacksonville.
Let’s move on to a game that does have intrigue. That’s because the Seattle Seahawks just keep winning. They got a big win over the New York Giants last week at home. They recently beat the Cardinals at home. Now it is rematch time against the Cardinals in the valley of the sun. Arizona actually the short one point favorite here in this matchup. The total is 50. They were chanting Geno, Geno, Geno for Geno Smith last week. Chris Farley, I’m to you for an official play. What do we like here?
Chris Farley:
I love that they’re chanting for Geno. He deserves it. There was a pass last week against the Giants where Lockett dropped the pass. I don’t know how he dropped it. But it is one of those passes that typically this is what we all salivate when we see Justin Herbert throw the ball because it was a pinpoint precision pass over the defense. Geno Smith is feeling it, no doubt about it. It’s very legit at this point. However, sports betting is all about anticipating variance, if we can, anticipating regression to the mean when we can. And the Seahawks, they’re playing really good football, not turning the ball over, three straight wins now against some pretty darn good teams. But the Arizona Cardinals, after really breaking my heart last week too, Brad, I was on them as well. They had a lot of mistakes in that game against the Vikings.
Now they’re going back home. They lost against this Seahawks team in a very strange 19 to 9 game in Seattle a few weeks ago. This is a pretty darn good revenge spot. What’s the one thing that can beat a great overall team is a very dynamic player. Kyler Murray has a lot to work on in his game, in his approach to being quarterback, lord knows, but he still is one of the best athletes in the NFL. Deandre Hopkins looks sensational out the gate. I think this is a rally game for the Cardinals who, in a very close race in the NFC West, are still in it. They’re 3-5. They’re right in there. I mean these teams are very even at this point, just because nobody’s really standing out. The Seahawks are 5-3. Lord knows the Rams haven’t been doing much. So the Cardinals still got a shot here if they’re going to do anything in this division, if they’re going to do anything this year. I love this spot for the Cardinals at minus one. Seahawks aren’t going to win the rest of their games. They have to lose a game eventually. This seems like the spot.
TJ Rives:
Interesting. Brad Thomas, a thought here on this one, if no official play from you. I know you were on the Seahawks’ side, if I believe correctly, for Three Dog Thursday purposes and otherwise when these teams played in Seattle. Any thoughts here on the rematch?
Brad Thomas:
Yeah. I lean Arizona. The reason I lean Arizona, first of all, it’s hard to beat a team twice in a season. That’s why we have divisions. That’s why we play at home and away. And now Arizona gets to play at home. One of the viewers said this Arizona team is bad. They are absolutely correct. I think I’ve gone on record on one of the BetUS shows saying Arizona didn’t do enough in the off season to improve their inefficiencies and it’s shown throughout the season.
Kyler Murray, he has all of the tools. Outside of height, but I don’t even really care about that because he can get out of the pocket. But he doesn’t have … I don’t want to say he doesn’t have the brains, but his decision making and his ability to read defenses really concerns me here. The Seahawks’ defense and secondary has been playing like one of the best units in the entire NFL. I just can’t trust them. And like you said Farley, variance is going to set in. The Seahawks are going to lose a game. I’ve been on Team Seahawks so much this season, I don’t mind not being on them even if they win. I was on the Seahawks last week. I wasn’t afraid against the red hot Jets. I mean, excuse me, Giants. But I’m not going to be on the Seahawks this week because I do think Arizona wins this game. But I don’t trust them. I don’t trust them at all.
TJ Rives:
Football IQ is what you’re talking about with Kyler Murray on what’s the smart play, just throw it away, get yourself out of bounds, don’t throw it in double coverage in a key situation when the game’s on the line. Just haven’t seen enough of that. So again, all of that being said though, Chris Farley believes that Cardinals overcome it and get a much needed November win for Cliff Kingsbury and company. Because again, everybody’s already started with the stuff, Farley you know this, about he can’t win games down the stretch of the season. It’s happened the last couple of years. Even though they found their way in the playoffs last year with the added wildcard team, they were losing games in November and December. So you do not want to start November here with a loss at home and start all of that barking. Nonetheless, Farley says give me the Cardinals, short favorite at home with the Seattle Seahawks.
Okay. When the schedule came out, this was supposed to be one of the top games we would be looking at in week number nine of the NFL. Now, eh. Tampa Bay Buccaneers hosting the LA Rams. The Buccaneers who’ve lost … Brad Thomas. Who’ve lost five of six games. The LA Rams who are 3-4 off of a third home loss last week. They lost for the third time this season to the San Francisco 49ers at home. Neither one of these teams are in the playoffs right now, as we said earlier in the show in the NFC. Yet the Bucs are three point favorites. The line is 42 and a half. We do not have an official play. Chris Farley, I’m going to come right back to you though with a thought on this one where the loser, if it’s the Bucs is 3-6, if it’s the Rams, they’re 3-5. Somebody’s got to get well in this game. Any thoughts?
Chris Farley:
On the one hand you just want to take the dog in this because both teams are just really tough to trust right now. I mean the Bucs get punched in the mouth one time on offense. They score early and then they get stopped, they get stymied and they can’t respond. And I don’t know what that is. I don’t know if that’s a Tom Brady leadership thing. He’s not as present. Certainly has reasons to not be as present this year. That’s for sure. Some people roll their eyes at that sort of thing. There is no athlete in America that’s as high profile as Tom Brady who’s going through a divorce. That has to wear on him. At the same time, they finally got their run game going a little bit last week. We saw it a little bit and then that kind of died out too.
It doesn’t seem like there’s chemistry with the wide receivers. That defense underperforming as well. But on the other hand, the Rams, if they had any other option besides an injured, banged up Cooper Kupp, then I would maybe have some more faith in them to cover this line. So I think this line is very sharp. It kind of has to be favoring the Bucs. I mean they’re at home. Another embarrassing loss for everybody to see, where they had the game. You would think they were starting to control the game and then just completely lost it and couldn’t come back against a Ravens team that flails in the fourth quarter. They still couldn’t do it. So again, just one of those games where you would have to really convince me for some crazy reason to play on this. I don’t know. My life would have to be threatened or something. I’m just not willing to put my money on the line with these two teams. Regression I think is going to come for one of them in a positive way. I just don’t know which one at this point.
TJ Rives:
Well, and again for the Rams, Cooper Kupp is banged up. For the Buccaneers, they may get a couple of people back. Akiem Hicks, the big defensive tackle that they got from the Bears has not played since the beginning of the second game of the season. He got hurt right at the beginning of the second game of the season with the Saints. So maybe he’s going to be back for this game. We saw that little nugget that the Bucs are 0-4 ATS at home so far this year. And the Rams have had their number, Brad. I know this. The playoff win last year. A regular season win at SoFi last year, a Monday night win in the 2020 pandemic season. They have had the Buccaneers’ number. Cooper Kupp has had their number really these last couple of seasons in the matchups. We’ll see how healthy he is. Brad, any thoughts if no official play on Rams coming into Tampa Bay?
Brad Thomas:
Yeah, a lot of thoughts. The Buccaneers do get a lot back. Sean Murphy-Bunting, Carlton Davis, Hicks comes back. All this is great news. But what do we think is going to happen with Tom Brady? He finally signs the paperwork for his divorce. Finally. Is this the game where he’s able to put that all behind him? Because we watch every single Bucs game with our gear on, with our heart on our sleeve and it just feels like there’s so much that happens that we have question marks. Tom Brady throwing balls in the ground. There’s no way that Tom Brady just fell off the face of the earth in terms of talent where he can’t throw a 10 yard out route. Yet he just consistently makes very bad throws. Last game he looked a lot better. And then for some reason we just keep running screen pass after screen pass after screen pass.
I talked about this on Three Dog Thursday, how we will be able to run the ball on the Ravens and we just stopped running the ball. We’re having success. And I say we as I’m a Bucs fan. It’s hard to take that out of my mouth. The Bucs were having success running the ball, yet they just stopped. They’re getting four and a half yards per carry, which hasn’t happened in the past two years. So I don’t trust them. And then I’m afraid of Aaron Donald against our offensive line. And last but not least, I’m afraid of Matt Stafford throwing picks to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. So yeah, Farley said he would only bet on it if his life depended on it. I would only bet on it if you gave me a crystal ball and told me the future.
TJ Rives:
Or get the flux capacitor in Dr. Brown’s DeLorean and go back in time on Back to the Future with Michael J. Fox. I make an ’80s movies reference on the BetUS NFL show. Look, obviously I am part of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers radio broadcast. I would have lost my house wagering that after a 2-0 start with road wins at Dallas and New Orleans that you could be staring at losing six of the next seven games with Brady healthy. Yet that is what is riding on a loss here. To lose six of seven after starting 2-0 on the road at the Cowboys and at the Saints. So let’s see if they do get it back together for the reasons you guys are talking. But I can understand where there’s some trepidation here because how do you trust the Rams with the way that they have looked as well?
How do you trust them going on the road here in this matchup? Nonetheless, somebody’s going to feel better. About 8:00 Eastern time, 5:00 Pacific. Somebody’s going to feel better on Sunday night about the rest of their season in this one in this matchup.
Okay. Two games to go here down the home stretch. One more time, let’s talk Sunday Night Football and very interesting, the Tennessee Titans. As we speaketh on the show, there is talk that Ryan Tannehill is practicing in a limited way for the Titans on Thursday afternoon. Can he play? We don’t know. Malik Willis, the rookie out of Liberty played the whole game last week with Houston. This ain’t Houston that they’re about to play. Houston, we have a problem. The problem is Mahomes is a lot better than anything the Texans have and they’re laying 13 and the line is 46 and a half. Chris Farley, I am back to you because you are playing a couple of things on this game. Sunday Night, Titans-Chiefs with the unknown again about Tannehill. We don’t know that as we’re doing the live show Thursday on what’s his status, but Chris nonetheless, go on the record here with what you like.
Chris Farley:
Yeah. He’s back up back at practice in limited fashion so we don’t know if he’s going to play this weekend. But I don’t know which situation I like better for the Chiefs, Malik Willis or Ryan Tannehill, because Ryan Tannehill’s not going to be 100% if he does play. I think I kind of like that one a little more because you really don’t know what you’re going to get from Malik Willis if he comes out there. But this is a really tough spot for the Titans. When you go to Kansas City against Andy Reid off of a bye, that combination of Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes has averaged 34 points per game after the bye. They’re going to put up points on the Titans. And the Titans are a very gritty team, no doubt about it. They remind me a lot of the New York Giants. They just do things right, they’re disciplined.
They make all the right small decisions out there on the field. They get pressure on the quarterback in key situations. However, when you’re facing this Chiefs team off a bye who has two weeks to scheme offensively … They’re also pretty good against the run by the way. This is not the Houston Texans who allow everybody and their brother to run on them. At Arrowhead with that crowd going crazy off of a bye. The Titans are just due. I mean a number of wins in a row now and they’ve played really well, but Derrick Henry alone, even if he runs for 200 yards in this game, I’m not sure if they can score enough points to keep up with the Chiefs. I’m going to tease down the Chiefs six and a half points to bring it down to six and a half.
But I’m also going to take the Chiefs at minus 13. I don’t think they’re going to be able to score enough points to keep up with the Chiefs in this scenario. And to their credit, to play contrarian, they’ve been here before, they’ve been in the playoffs. They’re a tough team. But as far as pure product goes, we see a lot of these teams like the Giants, like the Titans, like the Falcons who week to week, they’re fighting hard, they’re doing things right. But when you go up against a real elite team, which there are very few in the NFL right now, in a great spot like this, I always favor the favorite. And one last point. I’m going on and on here. Last week, 9-6 to the favorites against the spread. A lot of underdogs have been hitting. I do think we’re going to start to see that swing a little bit here. Underdogs can’t cover at 58% all season.
TJ Rives:
Well we’ll see. Yes. And Teaks, by the way, has a very interesting point. When is the last time that a team that’s 5-2 is getting this many points on the road? And at Arrowhead, the Chiefs have been vulnerable. In the earlier Thursday night game with the Chargers they had to scratch and claw, had to scratch and claw to beat the Raiders on Monday Night Football. We’ll see what it looks like. Brad Thomas, any quick thoughts here, if no official play from you on the Titans who are going to hand it a lot, at least they’re going to try to Derrick Henry.
Brad Thomas:
Yeah. I love that question or statement, when’s the last time a 5-2 team is getting 12 points? Guys, let’s look at these Titans wins. They beat the Raiders, the Colts twice, and the Texans and the Commanders. Let’s be for real. That was the Carson Wentz Commanders.
TJ Rives:
Did I hear a playoff team on that list? I don’t think I heard a playoff team. No.
Brad Thomas:
I don’t think we heard a team over .500 on that list.
TJ Rives:
That’s correct.
Brad Thomas:
So yes, the line is telling you everything you need to know. It’s Kansas City or not. I’m actually waiting before I bet this. I want to see what happens with the line movement. I don’t really care who’s at quarterback. But if they do say that Tannehill’s in line to play, I’m just going to tease it. I feel like this is a great teaser leg here. We know the Kansas City Chiefs, their weaknesses is their run defense, but as an entire unit defensively they have improved. And man, I talked about this the last time I was on the show about this Kansas City … The weapons. People were talking all off season about Tyreek Hill leaving and he’s going to have no weapons. What Tyreek Hill leaving allowed this offensive unit to do is have a lot of new talent and guys step up. Juju Smith-Schuster is a great addition. Mecole Hardman scoring touchdowns almost at will anytime he gets in the red zone. You have Scantling playing very good football. And now they can do a lot more creative ways because you’re not having to worry about getting the ball in one guy or two guys hands, him and Kelsey. So yeah, this Chiefs team is for real. I think if the Chiefs play the Bills again, the Chiefs beat the Bills. So yeah, I don’t mind laying the points here if you want to.
TJ Rives:
Love it. Again, Kadarius Toney also traded from someone’s Giants to the Chiefs. How do they use him in the mix with Edwards-Helaire and with throwing him the ball, et cetera? Farley is saying points. He wants lots of points for Kansas City. He’s got a two team tease. The back end of it, as well as the Chiefs on the record here for this. The second half total is what you’re interested in. Or actually, I’m sorry, the two team tease. I misread that. The two team tease, lowering the Chiefs down to six and a half. So you’re kind of covered either way in the region there of them getting a touchdown or winning by 13. And interesting about whether or not the Titans can score in this game. Certainly if they are able to take some time on the clock and stop the Chiefs a couple of times in the first half, that’s good for them. If they fall behind 14-nothing, 17-nothing, something like that, night, night. It is over. I think we all agree on that part.
One more time, guys. The audience is still growing and growing. We’re not going to sit here till 5:00 PM live in the eastern time hours, but we are grateful that all of you are in here hanging and watching us. If you have missed us talking about any of the games here on the NFL show, first of all we’re here at one Eastern time. Find us live. You can go back obviously later on Thursday whenever you’re seeing the show, Friday, et cetera, and watch the beginning of the show. We break out every game. Our guys at BetUS do a great job of breaking out every game where you get a breakdown even if there’s not official plays of each game in a preview mode here off the BetUS Show.
And do us a favor, hit the like button, hit the bell, make sure you’re subscribing. I am seeing hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of you that are watching us live. Hit that like button. Crank it up before we’re done live here today. We’ve got one game left to go and it’s the Monday nighter. And lookie here. Off the Thursday night win in Tampa, the Baltimore Ravens now get some extra time off to play on Monday night against the Saints, who came alive against the Raiders for what it was worth in the Superdome last week. Will it carry over to this week? The Ravens interestingly are the road fave here laying three. The total is 48. Brad Thomas, I am back to you for an official play to wrap us up. What do you like sir?
Brad Thomas:
Listen, this is going to be the first time in a long time that I don’t think the Saints are a sharp side. I mean the Saints so far are what, 3-5 against the spread and three of those that they didn’t cover were just crazy non covers. But I’m going to be on the Ravens minus three. You’ve given me plus money or even odds for the Ravens here. I think they’re the better team. They have extra time to try to implement some more stuff with Smith. So now they have … I mean … Yeah, with Smith and Queen. That’s like the two headed monster at linebacker. And what’s cool about this offense, everyone was talking about Marquis Brown and then Bateman now going down. It still flows. And what I’ve noticed, what this team has done is they’ve made sure that every piece they put in place has a similar play style as the backup piece or the piece starting before them.
Quarterback, running back, wide receiver. There doesn’t need to be a number one wide receiver here because they have the type of pieces that are just plug and play and offense that just really it runs through the system. So they’ve built such a great system here. And this is a massive, massive letdown spot for the Saints. You just don’t replicate success like you did last week, week after week when you’re a team of the caliber of the Saints. This is not a Super Bowl bound team. So yeah, give me the Ravens here. I didn’t talk about enough stats or facts, but all the facts I need to know is that the Ravens are playing great football. That win over the Bucs, the comeback win over the Bucs was huge for them, especially getting guys like Isaiah Likely involved. Because Isaiah Likely has a massive, massive ceiling.
TJ Rives:
The tight end. He played for Mark Andrews who now has the shoulder injury to go along with a knee injury. Andrews not practicing midweek. Again, they’ve got the extra day here to play on Monday night. I’ll give you a couple of stats. They threw the ball 30 times in the first half, 30 times, and then they ran the ball right down the Buccaneers’ throat when they wore him down the second half. I don’t think Lamar Jackson threw the ball 10 times in the second half. He didn’t have to in the game. Ravens drives to start the second half in Tampa. Touchdown, touchdown, touchdown, field goal. So obviously they figured some things out as the game went along. Chris Farley, I know you do not have an official play. Again, the Saints off the win over the Raiders. Did they find something here or are the Ravens going to humble them again and drop them to 3-6? Thoughts?
Chris Farley:
Yeah, I got a buddy who’s a big Saints fan and just knows all the nuances that anyone can know about their own team. So I still need to talk to him about the Saints because someone needs to talk me off the Ravens. I mean by the end of this week I’ll probably have a play on the Ravens. Just a lean for right now because I agree with what Brad’s saying. Just a really tough offense to prep for and I think this could be potentially a nightmare matchup for the Saints. Obviously Lamar Jackson can scramble around, he can get out of the pocket. And the Saints, they’ve improved in the amount of pressure that they’re getting, but they’re still not one of the elite teams in that area. If they don’t bother Lamar Jackson early and often in this game, I think it could actually get pretty ugly. I love the way that the Ravens keep their offense very unpredictable. To your point, TJ, a lot of passes in the first half, a lot of runs in the second half.
They can really make anything work. Yeah, they don’t have that big body at wide receiver, but I think that’s a great point that you make, Brad. I don’t know if they need it just because of all the nuances that they run with their offense. On the Saints’ side, Andy Dalton balled last week. We saw some more from some of their other players. I don’t know if that’s something we can count on every week. There was some talks about Alvin Kamara leaving the Saints, being traded. That didn’t happen so that’s interesting. Maybe this team still feels like they have some chance to get to the playoffs here. I mean let’s face it, the NFC South is wide open, so why not? So that’s what scares me away a little bit here. Maybe some added motivation because of that. But for now, strong lean to the Ravens who special teams, offense, and you could argue possibly with Roquan Smith now part of that team, maybe they have a significant edge on defense as well. Ravens could be a very loaded team heading into the second half of this season. So I’m excited to see them play but not ready to pull the trigger. Still a pretty tough spot on the road.
TJ Rives:
Love all of that. And again, if you’re Andy Dalton, the red ninja, as he’s been known from his TCU days, et cetera, you’re going, “Oh, they got Roquan Smith in time to come after me. Great.” Okay, so that’s coming Monday night. On the record though, it’s Brad Thomas saying I like the Ravens and Lamar Jackson. Can Lamar stay away from the turnovers? We’ll find out. He did so in the Thursday night win over the Buccaneers. They ran it really well. Let’s see if it continues. Another significant injury is Gus Edwards, the running back hurt his hamstring in the Thursday night game. Don’t know if he can play Monday night. Keep an eye on that. But Brad Thomas says, give me the Ravens.
With that, that is a full show. So by means of recap, let’s go back. If you joined us late for what we had at the beginning with the best bets from the guys. I won’t go over everything that you see there on the screen, but there were some early plays including Chris Farley having a teaser play earlier in the program as well. And again, a couple of road underdog situations for Brad Thomas that he likes with the Packers and with the Baltimore Ravens. Guys, we’ve come to the end of another Thursday show. Any final thoughts? Brad Thomas, any final thoughts before we’re done and good?
Brad Thomas:
Yeah. We’re chugging along through the season so guys, remember, always bet responsibly, have a ton of fun. That’s why we’re here. Make money and have fun.
TJ Rives:
Haven’t said it on this show, but we say it all the time on other shows. Don’t just bet a game just to bet a game. That’s not usually good policy or practice or smart. Have a reason, have an edge, have an angle. Brother Farley, anything else?
Chris Farley:
Yes. Hey, this is the first time we’re going to see the New York Giants off a bye with Brian Daboll probably scheming up some fun things there for the New York Giants. They face the Texans at home next week. In my opinion, if that line is anything four or less in favor of the Giants, I would take the Giants in that one. They’re probably going to get a little more credit than that, unfortunately. But I’m looking for an early line on the Giants. And look out for some of these teams that might seem like fake news still, like the Minnesota Vikings.
TJ Rives:
All right. Maybe the Vikings get rattled some here in their matchup with the Commanders. We’ll find out. Again, a busy show. Thank you to everybody that was watching. One more time, hit that like button before you leave. Hit the subscribe, hit the bell, all of it. Chris Farley, thank you. Brad Thomas, thank you. Antonio, everybody behind the scenes at BetUS, great job with the show. Don’t forget to check out our sportsbook website. We’ll be back next Thursday on the BetUS NFL Show.
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