Speaker 1:
And as we get ready to turn the page to the playoffs, let’s take one more look at our records now with the regular season in the books, we’ve got a full screen graphic showing up for the YouTube audience. Based on these numbers, I think it’s fair to declare Scott, the winner of the number one seed, perhaps giving Scott some home field advantage here in a first round by Scott, feel free to take the rest of the show off on that note. Chris locked into the two seed, and that leaves me for the three seed. That might have turned out a little bit better for me if only either of you had warned me about the Chargers at the Raiders last week you guys.
Chris:
We’re sorry. We didn’t see that coming at all.
Speaker 1:
Serves me right for going head to head with the both of you. As much as that game was a thriller, I’m going to have a tough time shaking it, but as betters need to do this can be a good exercise. And turning the page, we’ve got a fun, wild card weekend board to get to, and as we prepare to hit the ground running there, a quick shout out to YouTube audience, please take a quick moment to give this video a thumbs up, subscribe to the channel, and as always jump in that chat, we’ll be happy to take any questions at the end of the show. And guys let’s cut right to it. First came on the board on wild card weekend, the Raiders at the Bengals, Cincinnati laying five and a half, total of 49. And let’s start in a Raiders playoff game with the guy who puts Las Vegas at the beginning of his name, Chris, what are you looking for in Raiders Bengals?
Chris:
I’m disappointed I missed the line move here a little bit. It was six and a half. I just wanted to process this game a little bit more because you had Las Vegas coming off the short week here and an exhausting overtime win facing a rested Cincinnati. Trying to figure out basically what we’re going to expect from the Bengals in the playoffs. Since we haven’t seen him in the playoffs and we know Las Vegas wasn’t expected to be in the playoffs. So you really, you have to digest a game like this a little bit more and see what comes out of their mouths and what the attitudes are. And just digest a little bit more if that makes any sense, because you’ve got, I think it’s really interesting when you just have two teams like this that are going to meet. There’s high expectations with the Bengals and there’s no not many expectations on the Raiders at this point.
Chris:
And who does that help more? So the one thing I notice here that I think is really important is the strength of schedule difference. And Cincinnati has one of the lowest strength of schedules played. They’re coming up for fourth play schedule from the year before. And I’ll make a comment on that before I forget it. We’ve got 14 teams in the playoffs, three of them faced a top 10 schedule. Think about that. So, if you’re facing those difficult schedules, it’s going to be tough. And the Raiders, at least by [inaudible 00:08:04] face the 11th most difficult schedule. I don’t take his ratings to heart necessarily. They could be off in many cases, but at least it’s some reference point and the thing that bothers me about Cincinnati here, 20th over the last five weeks in performance in Vegas, Hey, we talked about it last week.
Chris:
We were going to come here this week and go, geez, the Raiders won three games in a row. We should have seen it that the fourth game in a row was going to put a team in here that doesn’t belong in here. They’ve won win four games in a row. It’s hard to win four games in a row in the NFL, no matter who you play. So the momentum is Las Vegas’s way. I probably sat on this too long. I don’t have a plan it now, make sure you check the comments though. Probably going to add some plays in the comments before game time. And I’m looking at the Raiders possibly if the line goes back up.
Speaker 1:
And one more angle I’d like to touch on with you, Chris, as it pertains to this game, rookie head coaches in the playoffs, Rich Bisaccia, a rookie head coach. Also Nick [inaudible 00:09:11], will get to that Eagles Bucks game later, but interesting in the Raiders case, a rookie head coach in the playoffs usually viewed as a disadvantage, but Zach Taylor, not the most highly regarded head coach and it’s also his first playoff appearance. So what do you make of that?
Chris:
There’s also a big trend with first time starters for quarterbacks and the Raiders made the playoffs a few years back, but Car broke his arm or his leg or something and wasn’t able to play. So he’s never played a playoff game. So you’ve got Burrow, you’ve got two head coaches, two quarterbacks, two teams with no experience, which is actually nice because then you can put them a little bit on equal footing. I don’t know what you and Scott think, but I feel like it’s a wash out.
Speaker 1:
Yeah. I don’t have a strong take one way or the other there. It’s hard for me to develop a strong opinion almost any way I look at this game. I guess the biggest edge I see in the game is the Raiders defensive line going to the Bengals offensive line, especially if Burrow’s mobility is compromised off of a knee injury suffered late in that chief’s game. But at the same time, that might be a wash because for all intents and purposes, the Bengals took a by in week 18 and the Raiders going from an overtime Sunday nighter down to the wire to the early window on Saturday. So how much does fatigue play into that big advantage the Raiders could have in the trenches, that has me on the sidelines in this one for now. And Scott, if you are looking at the Raiders, perhaps there are some asymmetric, risk might not hurt to go ahead and wait, because a tick down from five and a half doesn’t really cost you any value, but a tick back up to six might make all the difference.
Scott:
Yeah. I mean your next key number is probably four. I mean obviously when they started kicking fuel goal or extra points farther back, whatever it was five, six years ago, the five starts to come into play a little bit more, but if you’re looking to take the Raiders, I did take them at six and a half yesterday. For show purposes, if they would’ve been at plus six right now I would take them, but we’re at five and a half. So alls I can do is really recommend to wait and see, like Chris said, I mean, you’re watching that game him Sunday night. I was tired watching the game.
Scott:
Just thinking like, man, the Raiders are going through a lot here and how do they turn this around? And now come full circle can go to Cincinnati with the early slot on Saturday. It’s not easy and for all practical purposes, Cincinnati had last week off, at least for their key player. So that part is not real good for the Raiders. I made the line four. So I think we’ve got some value on the Raiders. I’m going to rattle off these three teams. Do you guys tell me what they have in common, Kansas City, San Francisco and Green Bay? They’re all in the playoffs, right?
Speaker 1:
Yeah. Anything beyond the Kansas City, San Francisco and Green Bay?
Scott:
That’s it, they’re in the playoffs, right? So Kansas City played all three of those teams at home this year. They were a home dog to all three of those teams. Now let me rattle these teams off to you. Baltimore, Chargers, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Jacksonville, all are not in the playoffs other than Pittsburgh, we know that, right? Those were the teams Kansas City was favored against. They were favored against all these non playoff teams, which we know some of those teams could have… Baltimore and Chargers could have easily been into playoffs, I get it. But the real solid playoff teams they’ve been home dogs to, now they’re coming here as a five and a half, six, six and a half point favorite against Vegas. I don’t know, man, like two weeks ago, the Colts were eight, nine point favorites against Vegas. And I look back and when the Colts were seven point favorites or higher over the last couple years, they were all to garbage teams, non playoff teams.
Scott:
And now they were a large favorite against a Vegas team that was on the brink of possibly making the playoffs. It’s the same thing here. I think in my opinion, these teams, I don’t think are that far apart. When they played back in week 11, I had the over on the team total for Cincinnati and I got lucky to get there, right? That thing ended up 32-13, but that was 16-13 late in the game. The last 10 points that Cincinnati scored came on drives of 27 and 31 yards following turnovers by Vegas. So there was a whole bunch of garbage stuff out of that. And that 32-13 was not representative. And we talked about you can’t put stock necessarily, always in those game.
Scott:
So caveat right there, but Vegas out-gained them 5.9 yards of play to 4.1 yards of play. Their success rate was almost 60% to 49% for Cincinnati. Cincinnati did not steam roll Vegas into a 32-13 win. So, I just questioned here, should Cincinnati be this big of a favorite? The situation obviously favorite Cincinnati. I just think it’s too many points. I did grab six and a half. If this would’ve like I said, for show purposes right now, if this would be six, I would’ve made this the best bet. It’s a very strong lean to Vegas. And if it goes up six or obviously higher, I would take Vegas if I were the listeners as well.
Chris:
I had the Raiders in Cincinnati in that game. And it was a tough choice because I forget the circumstances, but they were particularly hit with either injuries or COVID that week.
Scott:
Well, you had the Gruden thing and then Henry Rugs did not play in that game. So I think that was right when all that was happening, because DeSean Jackson was playing. So it was probably a week removed from Henry Rugs I think.
Chris:
It was just days after, that’s right. It was before the new head coach and before… And Raiders should have won that game. I mean they very well could have, and it was just a disappointing loss, so.
Scott:
They had the week before that Chris, they lost 20-9 to the bears. That was right after Gruden got let go or maybe got let go right after that game, that night or something. And then you had the Henry Rugs thing during the middle of the week, then obviously he wasn’t available for that game. So it was right when they were starting all this stuff that really hit them straight in the face and they had to deal with.
Speaker 1:
Well, we got a couple strong leans on the Raiders here. Keep an eye on the comment section. Especially if this line by any chance happens to tick back up to that plus six. Moving on from a game with some leans to a game with a couple of bets between the three of us, the Patriots at the Bills, another rematch from the regular season. That’s a common theme in this round, New England catching four points at Buffalo, total 43, Chris, no surprise to the audience who caught our show during the regular season who you’re on in this one.
Chris:
Why would that be? I bet Buffalo against New England the last time they played each other.
Speaker 1:
But if we look at how many times you bet New England for or against, I’m guessing it’s a bit lopsided, but anyway, what do you think of this particular matchup round three, Patriots Bills?
Chris:
Well, I’m keeping an eye on the weather in this game because that’s going to change dynamic of a lot of what happens. I know the history of rookie quarterbacks in the playoffs and I looked at that list today and the rookie quarterbacks in the playoffs haven’t fared very well, but Russell Wilson, one and a bunch of other, and the vast majority of the losing quarterbacks in the playoffs that lost that were rookies, boy they were not good quarterbacks. So you got to factor that in a little bit. So we don’t know how good of a quarterback we have here for New England, but I think the points are what matters in this situation. I think these teams are a lot closer in talent than people realize. And if you can get four or four and a half, I don’t know how you can turn that down in this situation, it can go either way.
Chris:
We’ve seen these teams play each other. And like I said, I bet New England against Buffalo. The first time, New England won and I bet Buffalo against New England when Buffalo beat New England, I trust my data and my data says that there’s value here. So I’m going to stick with New England. They just, for a note, they seem to have played somewhat similar schedules, but Buffalo is if not number 32, pretty close to the weakest schedule in the NFL. So be aware of that. And neither team has been that exciting over the last five weeks. Buffalo’s a little bit better, but they’ve been cleaning up over playing nonsense teams.
Speaker 1:
Yeah. And I’m with you on this one, we were head to head with the Patriots last week when you had them and Scott and I took the Dolphins, but we have some consensus with the Patriots this weekend, a big pivot for me. I know that they were priced near their ceiling, perhaps at their ceiling laying a touchdown early in the week, last week against the Dolphins. This time around, I don’t know that all that much has changed since these teams played in Buffalo in week 13 in that crazy win game, the Bills were laying two and a half to three extra juice depending on how you wanted to get at that number. But I feel like these extra points are almost pure value on the Patriots.
Speaker 1:
I am seeing I think some money. It looks like some money’s coming in on Buffalo. So there’s a chance of seeing four and a half. I’m not going to bet this yet, but I will be in play on the Patriots, holding out, hoping to see a four and a half. If not, I think four is still a go and Scott, when it comes to this game and not just from a side standpoint, but from a totals perspective, again, round three Patriots versus Bills. Do you think that reduces any of the variants that could be in play in this matchup?
Scott:
It could. It’s interesting because it’s looking like what teens, as far as temperature, possibly snow, right? Now, that first game you had a whole bunch of wins. So I almost, maybe because I think Buffalo is a more talented team, but the line will be the deciding factor here of course. I almost threw that first game out because it’s just not natural. I thought the game they played in New England, which was a neutral weather game, if you will. I thought Buffalo’s talent really showed through. I think, Buffalo’s got a much higher ceiling here from a talent level. I think, especially with Josh Allen where I think New England falls within this frame of where they can go high or low. So, I think Buffalo’s a better team, but the problem I have with taking Buffalo as to what you guys have said, I make this number two.
Scott:
So the line’s four, right? And it’s hard for me sometimes. And this is maybe a fault of mine because if you trust the lines you should just trust the lines. But the take the team getting four points that I don’t know as quite as good as the other team, but that’s why you make numbers, right? You make numbers to decide where this thing should land. And right now for me, it’s saying two, so there’s value on New England. Will I take New England? I don’t know if I will, but I can’t take Buffalo lane four when I know that the number should be two based on what I’m looking at.
Speaker 1:
When you say you make this number two, I also know Chris mentioned off the top of the show home field advantage increases in the playoffs. It’s tough to reconcile an increased home field advantage and Buffalo being the better team in your book. But this number is still just being two. Do you think maybe the Patriot’s familiarity with this venue just keeps home field still at a pretty low number?
Scott:
I think it can. I mean, I haven’t made a huge adjustment on the playoffs. Maybe Chris is doing, and it’s interesting. We know how much New England dominated Buffalo forever. And I don’t remember what happened in the first game that they played last year. I’d have to go back and look, but I know New England or Buffalo, sorry, came back and spanked New England, I think in the second game last year. And then of course this game, this year has been 1-1.
Scott:
But it’s just, when you’re laying a lot of points like that, these teams aren’t like as I think Chris said, they’re not that far apart. Again, I think there’s a higher ceiling with Buffalo and what Josh Allen can provide for the team in due to New England is much more than I think what Mac Jones can do, but will he do that or not? And the numbers are not indicating to me that he will do that. And my numbers do take an account into personnel on the field and rating every player. And right now they’re saying two, not four.
Speaker 1:
A common refrain from these first two games. These teams not too far apart. When we look at Raiders Bengals and Patriots Bills, I think we do see a more pronounced gap in our next game. Moving over to the NFC, Philadelphia, traveling to Tampa Bay, the Bucks currently laying at nine and a half at even money at BetUS total of 49. And Scott, what’s your take on this Eagles Bucks matchup?
Scott:
Well, five of these, as we’ve said, they played earlier in the year and that game was in Philadelphia early in the year, 28-22 final I believe it was. Tampa dominated that game. Here’s my problem with Philadelphia and I’d be real interested to hear what you guys have to say on it. But Philadelphia has made their mark this year on playing really bad teams. When I look at the good teams that they’ve played this year, San Francisco early in the year and let’s face it, this team I think is better later in the year than they were early in the year. Although the last half of their schedule again has been against a bunch of teams that aren’t any good. So are they looking better because of that? Or are they gelling and coming together?
Scott:
It’s probably a little of both, but they lose 17 to 11 early in a year to San Francisco. They get killed really from a success rate standpoint, they lose 41 to 21 to Dallas early in the year, they lose 42 to 30 to Kansas City, 28-22 against these Bucks. That game was much further apart than the final score. They go to Vegas, they lose 33-22. They haven’t done well against any good teams. And here comes Tampa now, who is going to get a little bit healthier. Shaquele Barrett and Pier Paul are going to be back. I think Fornet’s going to be back. So they’re going to get some of these guys back that have missed a few weeks here. I make the number about 11 and a half for Tampa Bay. I think there’s some value here on Tampa Bay. I don’t really want to lay this high of a number.
Scott:
To me, this is a perfect teasing opportunity. If you can get it under three, the question is who do you tease it with? Not really available right now. So, if we will get to, I think the San Francisco game that went down to two and a half, maybe I’d tease it with that. So I don’t know how I’m going to play Tampa Bay right now. I think they are the better team, but I don’t want to lay that many points. I either have to find something through maybe some player props or something that can take advantage of what I think is advantageous for Tampa Bay. Or again, if I could find a way to tease because we get some line movement somewhere, but I don’t know that we’re going to get that. So I can’t play it that way. So maybe a team total points. I would maybe look at that possibly, but value for me on Tampa Bay. I just don’t quite want to lay this many points on the playoffs.
Speaker 1:
Hopefully we can get a good angle and add it to the comments between now and kickoff, because it seems like there’s a lot of desire to back the Bucks. And I see why, even though when I first look at this game, I have a thought about one of my bigger lessons I’ve taken away from this regular season, a good run defense doesn’t necessarily translate to a mobile quarter, and with Jalen Hurts, I first thought, okay, maybe the Eagles can make some noise. But Scott, as you touched on it, that was a really phony backdoor cover the Eagles had in the first matchup between these two teams, Tampa Bay’s reloaded. It seems like their injuries came at the right time. They got to beat up on the Panthers twice and then they just skated by against the Jets. And now they’re getting healthier for the playoffs. And I too would love to tease them right now, but takes two to tango, not seeing a good second leg yet. So going to stay on the sidelines as far as Tampa Bay is concerned for now. Chris, what about you?
Chris:
Well, it’s not impossible to find places that’ll take open teasers where you put in the first leg and if you had that ability, that’s an option because there really isn’t a second teaser team here this week at this point. My metrics actually surprisingly lean toward Philadelphia here. As you touched on, the big concern is the shutdown run defense that Tampa Bay has. But as you said, Matt, this is a different type of run game. And I just know mentally from seeing it in college that when great rush defenses face particularly mobile or different type of running offense, they can get forwarded. They can really get run on and it’s just such a shock to their system. So whether Philadelphia’s capable of doing that, I don’t know. I mean, we’ve got another young coach with no playoff experience if I’m correct, young quarterback, no playoff experience.
Chris:
And I believe that there’s at least some playoff experience on Tampa Bay side. So, those are my concerns. So the metrics say one thing and logic tells you the other. Where we really end up sitting on this as far as I’m concerned is I can’t really find any value unless that line were to shoot up to 10 and I’m not even sure I want… I would not even be betting Tampa Bay at minus seven personally, even though I know other people would just carry bushels full of money to bet at minus seven, that’s where I stand on it. At this point, if something changes, I’ll put it in the comments.
Scott:
Here’s my concern with Philadelphia. I was just looking back at that game they played, Philadelphia had a success rate of 40%. The run rate was 52 and a half percent. So, they were doing okay running the ball. Their past success rate though was 32%. And I just get concerned because you got to figure Tampa’s going to score. Philly’s defense isn’t bad, but you got to figure Tampa’s going to put some points on the board. And so obviously Philly and I agree, the run game Philly brings to town, that doesn’t translate to your traditional run defense.
Scott:
So it’s hard to understand how well Tampa Bay will defend that, but can Jalen Hurts, can Philadelphia, can they throw the ball if they’re down by 10, 12, 14 points and get back in the game? I don’t know. They didn’t do it early in the year. They were a little bit better late in the year. But again, I mean, who do they play late in the year? Washington, Jets, Giants, banged up New Orleans team, banged up Denver team, Giants again. They haven’t played a lot of good teams lately. So it’s hard to know how well this team has progressed throughout the year to where we’re at right now as well.
Speaker 1:
Three rematches down, two to go, but not in this next game. The one first time matchup on the wild card weekend slate, a classic rematch from a lot of great 90s NFC playoff games, San Francisco taking on Dallas, the Cowboys laying three with a little bit of extra vague at home. Total 51. You guys both have plays on this. Scott, let’s kick it off with your look at the total.
Scott:
I played over, I played it at a little bit more advantageous number yesterday, 49 and a half. I would play this all the way up to 51 though. I make the total somewhere between 53 and 54, I think San Francisco’s going to be able to move the ball on this Dallas defense. This Dallas defense has some good for pass rushers. I question their secondary and just the dynamic game that Kyle Shanahan brings to the table, I think is going to cause problems for Dallas in terms of San Francisco being able to move the ball. I mean, Deebo Samuel, the guy’s phenomenal the way they use him. Obviously we know Kittle is a monster as well. You got to get production out of Jimmy G, that’s always questionable of course, but I think they’re going to be able to move the ball and score.
Scott:
And I think Dallas is going to be able to score as well. This is a pretty good Dallas offense. As far as the side, my numbers are actually favoring Dallas here by about six points actually. But the matchup to me is really a San Francisco matchup, [inaudible 00:30:17] nine in three against the spread as a road dog, since he came to San Francisco. Dak as a home favorite versus playoff teams, five and 10 against the spread. Dak as a home favorite versus teams who finish the season above 500 and have a better average defense, better than average defense, one in nine against the spread. Dak as a home favorite against teams that were above average offenses and defenses which San Francisco has, one in three against the spread since they got Amari Cooper, which started to add to their offense a little bit, they’ve allowed an average of 30 points that only scored 25 points.
Scott:
So this just seems like the kind of game that Dallas just struggles. This is a better Dallas team this year. So I definitely account for that, but historically this just does not seem to be a good matchup for Dallas. And I worry about that, but like I said, my number support Dallas, I know Chris likes Dallas, I believe so. Really eager, going to hear what he says on that because my numbers are telling me Dallas, but historically the matchup with how Dallas has performed against these teams, doesn’t necessarily support it.
Speaker 1:
As you talk about the match up, Scott, I’m reminded of just last week, the 49ers Rams game, similar deal if we look at power ratings versus how these teams look to go head to head. Of course, Jimmy G and Trent Williams, anchoring that offensive line, going to be big factors for San Francisco in this one. But I do think like you said, the 9ers style of play can perhaps negate the Cowboys pass rush and make the aggressive Dallas secondary a little bit less of a factor in this game, that has me leaning the 9ers way. But as you alluded to Scott, we’ve got Chris on the other side. So Chris, tell us how you’re looking to back Dallas in this one.
Chris:
I came up with the exact, just short of Scott’s number. So we’re thinking alike on this. Obviously I have concerns with last week, Garoppolo was interviewed after the game and he basically said that they gave it all and spent all their energy and I forget exactly what his verbiage was, but basically he gives you the impression that they left it all out on the field. And when you come off of a game like that, sometimes you don’t bounce back as much. Maybe you’re just a little bit slower to start that next game and kick it into game gear.
Chris:
I have Dallas actually is the fifth best team over the last five weeks overall. So after they went through that mid-season slump where we started to worry about them and they had the injuries and the COVID, they’ve come back. I mean, it hasn’t been the best of competition, but nevertheless and San Francisco, I thought actually was probably doing better than what they are, but they’re middle of the road over the last five weeks. It seems like they’re up, down, up, down, up down, and there’s just always some new issue with them every week.
Chris:
And everything went their way last week. I had San Francisco and even when they were down 17 nothing, wasn’t happy about it, but I wasn’t at chalking it up as a loss. I honestly thought that they were going to come back. So I just think, at three or two and a half, I definitely like Dallas in this spot. I think the team total, if you get a 27 is worth looking at going over with Dallas and I like the over also. I don’t think either team is going to stop either team, quite frankly, except unless they self destruct quite frankly. I think both of these teams are going to be able to move.
Scott:
By the way, I was just going to say to that point, Chris, these two played here last year. I actually had San Francisco lost that bet, I think San Francisco became a favorite late right before that game. I know, it’s different personality. You had no Dak and stuff. It was a 41-39 game last year. It was not a low scoring game, so.
Speaker 1:
Chris, when you mention liking the Cowboys in part, because it’s a big high from the 9ers to come down from, and that desperation game against the Rams last week, any thought to also looking at the Cowboys isolating the first half?
Chris:
No, I didn’t do that. You know what? I don’t gravitate toward first halves as much even though I guess I did on the next game we’re talking about, but no, I don’t chart out the first half stuff because most of the situations just seems so random with first halves, because I don’t like to bet anything that doesn’t involve a finality to it. It bothers me. I mean, especially how do you bet something like NBA first halves? Whether a team’s going to win the first half or not, do they really care if they’re down a bucket or up a bucket? I mean, I want my team to be making as much effort as they can to win the bet. And when you isolate first quarters and first periods, and first halves, you’re not necessarily going to get that.
Speaker 1:
Preaching to the choir, Scott and I had a great bet on the Bucks laying four and a half in the first half. That number closed in the ballpark of a full touchdown as it probably should have been lined all along. If you’ve told me we would’ve had that CLV and the Bucks would go ahead and blow out the Panthers, would’ve felt pretty good about it, but that’s what happened some time. So I can’t fault you for looking to lock in a sense of finality. That’s a good way to frame it. Nevertheless, as we move on to the next game, Chris, you do have a first half bet in play and that would involve the Steelers and the Chiefs, Kansas City laying 13 at even money at BetUS, total 46 and a half. Chris, let us know where you’re looking to go with your first half play in this one.
Chris:
Well, two of the three teams that played a top 10 schedule are facing off here. So we’re going to lose one of them. Pittsburgh played the most difficult schedule there is, you have to respect what they’ve done. I mean, you can’t deny Tomlin has a lot of talent as a coach. He commands respect from his players and he sticks to his gun. He’s a strong personality. He’s not a loud mouth, just a nice intensity. And you want to back people like that. This just reminds me where Pittsburgh just became the whipping boys. And they were just easy to make fun of, but they’ve done the eighth best as far as I’m concerned over the last five weeks. And they played some tough games and sure they backed into the playoffs and they don’t belong there, but they got there and that’s all that matters.
Chris:
The only angle I could take in this game. I went with the first half because for two reasons here, Pittsburgh notoriously is just awful in the first halves, they’ve done everything they’ve done all season long in the second half. So I’ve got a team that’s coming, going to be happy to be there, doesn’t start games well, and Kansas City, they can score. I trust them to want to get out and get a lead. And so I like the Kansas City minus seven in the first half. As far as full game metrics go, it’s pretty much right on the number. I can’t bet either side, but I can tell you the history of double digit favorites in the playoffs, they cover, they win by average at 17 points a game. So you can’t just scoff at them and say, oh, that’s too many points for an NFL game, but that’s about it. I think Kansas City wins whether they cover the full game, I don’t know, but I think they’re going to want to get a 7, 10, 14 point lead going into the halftime.
Speaker 1:
17, the number you mentioned, double digit favorites, traditionally winning by in the playoffs. That’s about what I need to look the Steelers way. I can’t touch them even though we’re the double digits here. Not eager to lay the Chiefs either, although I don’t disagree with your first half look. Our mutual friend, Adam Turnoff, Chris noting today that the Steelers, the only playoff team with both a negative success rate and a negative net yards per play on the season. So yes, they’re in the playoffs. Can’t take that away from them, but this could just be a nightmarish matchup, especially if we see anything like a repeat from week 16, when the Steelers headed to Kansas City and got smoked. And Scott in that game, you know injuries really well, Tae Rico was limited. Travis Kelsey was out, looking like they’ll both be in this time around, but might be limited once again. What do you make of those key factors for the Chief’s offense as it pertains to possibly getting some distance from the Steelers once again?
Scott:
Well, I mean, Kelsey will be huge obviously. Hill, we’ll see. They used him very limited. They said, he’s going to be okay for this week. Let’s see. I’m always a little cautious of that. But this game falls into where Kansas City really succeeds. And that is A, they’re a big favorite. So the last 20 games lane seven or more at home they’ve allowed 21 or more in only five of those 20 games. So they’re not giving up points when they’re deemed to be the far superior team. In their last six games at home, they’ve allowed 17 or less. Now they’ve played really bad offenses in all those games, but here comes Pittsburgh, which is not a good offense. So this is going to fit the bill for the type of teams that Kansas City, who knows about their defense.
Scott:
They gave up some points the last couple weeks, some questions about maybe some effort last week in Denver with some of their players. I do think at home with the home crowd, you’re going to get effort out of their defense, still pretty good defense, especially when they’re playing limited offenses. And here comes Pittsburgh, which on the road against better defenses this year, we mentioned this a couple weeks ago, they scored 23 at Buffalo, but seven was off a block punt. So they really scored 16. They then scored 17 at Green Bay, 15 at Cleveland, 10 at Cincinnati, 10 at Kansas City a couple weeks ago, 16 last week against a Baltimore defense that is maybe average at best, they’ve averaged 14 points a game against these better defenses. We know Kansas City has given up 17 or less.
Scott:
I know the team total here is probably 16 and a half. We obviously really love 17. If you find a 17 in the team total, I would play that under. Forgot if you can get first half team totals under, maybe under Pittsburgh, kind of the Christmas point, because they have been awful starting out games, that might be worth playing a team total for Pittsburgh just under, in the first half as well. But something under with Pittsburgh team total wise, I think is definitely a look. Especially if you can find a 17, I just don’t see Pittsburgh scoring a bunch of points in this game.
Speaker 1:
Well, we’ve got [inaudible 00:41:46]. What’s that?
Chris:
I’m betting the under 17 as we speak.
Scott:
Is there team total 17?
Chris:
Well, one of my places I found it.
Speaker 1:
All right. I think Scott and I are going to have to do some shopping during the show in just a moment here. So I will be quick to queue up the next game. Scott, you don’t foresee the Pittsburgh scoring a lot, but based on the total, we might see some fireworks when the Cardinals take on the Rams in what may be the first Monday night wild card playoff game if I’m not mistaken. Rams laying four to the Cardinals, total 49 and a half, round three between these two teams this season, Chris, why don’t you let us know which side you’re on?
Chris:
Oh, what do we got with these two teams? Lot of worries, lot of inconsistencies. I don’t think, can you trust either one of these teams at this point? That’s one of the things that comes to mind with me. And this is one of these games where there’s a significant difference in strength of schedule played and Arizona played a top 10 schedule and the Rams were bug below middle of the road. So, that’s a concern. Stafford’s pick sixes and just inconsistency, that has to worry any Rams backer. And let’s not forget when the Rams played Arizona and Arizona, I’ve seen almost every Matthew Stafford game. I’ve never seen him play that well. I mean the threading the needle just out of the fingertips, hands of the defender in the corner of the end zone to that guy who was getting… The pinpoint placement he had was incredulous.
Chris:
There’s no possible way he can do it again. There’s just no way. He played the perfect game. And Atlanta had a chance there at the end and shot themselves in the foot. So this is a case of, I don’t think these teams are four points apart and I think taking the points shows some value here, and I’m not jumping up and down about Arizona because Arizona’s really not done well, they’ve been in a free fall, but they still have not been absolutely atrocious and the Rams have not been absolutely great. So, when in doubt take the points.
Speaker 1:
And when you talk about taking the points, how do you look at possibly taking some of the money line as well? Knowing if Arizona covers the four, they’re going to be in the hunt to win the game outright?
Chris:
I haven’t been doing that very often. I really didn’t look at it. I just wanted the points. I think the Rams are the better team here. I think they should come away with the win. But you’re right, because when you look at these goofy Arizona victories, like against the Colts and Seattle, one other team, I forget, they’re not even supposed to be, it seems like they either lose by a lot to some idiots or they beat the good teams by outright. They’re odd like that. You’re right.
Speaker 1:
Well, I don’t have anything invested yet, but if I do, I’ll probably be with you taking the points and I would sprinkle in some money line. I think it could be a big factor for the Rams to be without safety Jordan Fuller, he’s their play caller on defense. So an adjustment on the fly for them to make heading into the playoffs. Defensively for the Cardinals, things could be trending in the other direction, if they can get anything out of JJ Watt if he’s able to make a return. But overall at this stage, I’m looking at, bet against versus bet against, it’s like what you outlined, Chris. I don’t want to back Kingsbury. I don’t feel like putting my money on Stafford. So I’m going to sit this one out for the time being. Scott, how about you?
Scott:
I make the number three. So we got a little bit of value with Arizona. My hesitation with Arizona is, since Deandre Hopkins went out it hasn’t been great. So, we had a few weeks there where they played without Hopkins and Murray. From a success rate standpoint, just reading my notes here, when they had Murray and Hopkins, they had about a 50, I’m going to round it up 53% success rate and passing the ball they read about 52%. Since Murray’s been… I’m sorry, since Hopkins has been out, but they’ve had Murray in the games they’ve gone from that 53% success rate down to about 49, the drastic difference and the passing rate, it’s gone from about 52 down to about 46% success rate. It’s hard to ignore that. I struggle, we’re just not seen a lot of good things out of Arizona recently.
Scott:
And that makes it tough for me to back them even though the numbers are slightly valuing them, they’re… This total is pretty high at 49 and a half. My numbers just based on personnel, make it about 51. So, it’s a little bit over to where the numbers at. But the Rams at 49ers last week, that total was 44 and a half. I betted over. I made the number closer to about 48. It went up to about 46 and a half. I think by game time. I had San Francisco over the team total, I played an alternate team total over in that game. I got lucky in all three of those, that game probably should not have been that high scoring. And obviously it took that last score at the end to really have all those things come home for me.
Scott:
And I point that out because the Rams are since the beginning of last year in SoFi stadium, there are 11 and three to the under as home favorites. And that third loss of course, to the over was last week’s game. It probably should have went under as well. So, I can’t get there yet from a number standpoint, I want to look at this a little bit closer. To me, this is a pretty high total. My numbers support Arizona. It’s very hard for me to really back Arizona too much, because I’ve just seen this decrease in production, but to Chris’s point, it’s hard to trust the Rams laying points. And by the way, the Rams at home favored against, let’s call it playoff teams this year for the most part, they lose 37 to 20 to Arizona here. They lose 28 to 16 to Tennessee and they lose last week 27-24.
Scott:
So, they’re not necessarily beating the good teams at home as home favorites either when they’re laying points. So I don’t know how you take the Rams. I mean it’s Arizona or nothing for me. And I want to look a little bit deeper and see if I can justify some way of taking the under as well. I don’t know how many points Arizona can score, but if they’re going to cover this game, they’re obviously going to have to hold the Rams down too, or score a bunch of points. I just don’t know if that’s going to happen with their offense though.
Chris:
Let’s not forget that Arizona has really fared well on the road this year, too.
Scott:
Yes.
Chris:
I think that they’re happy to get away from home for whatever reason, maybe the nagging wife and annoying kids, who knows. But my only other concern with Arizona is I think Kliff Kingsbury is showing that he’s not a good coach. Some of the errors he’s making, some of the strategies that he’s doing are painfully evident, unfortunately.
Speaker 1:
Chris, as you touch on the Cardinals home road splits that can lead us into our Q and A, because we have a question from the live chat, noting that we mentioned home field advantage being a bigger factor in the playoffs, question asks, which stadiums would you say will have the bigger and smaller impacts? And I’ll give you guys a sec to think about that, because I don’t want to forget about the Packers and Titans on buy this week, perhaps in Lambo field or even in Nashville, we might see those home field advantages magnified, not only because of this being the playoffs and those teams having first round buys, but they also had late regular season buys in week 13. So home field advantage may loom especially large for the one seeds. Any stadium specific factors that you guys are building into your projections for the playoffs.
Chris:
Well, I think you just have to… The Buffalo and New England are used to similar weather, but as long as it’s not windy, the cold probably favors Buffalo a little bit. I think, anybody that has to go to Green Bay, it’s a big disadvantage. That’s a culture shock to a small town city. It’s like going to Hickory in [inaudible 00:50:46], they’re all about the team. So Kansas City obviously has been a tough place for teams to win. I don’t think the Rams have a home advantage. I think that, I’m not crediting them on anything because they haven’t played well at home. I don’t think in Las Vegas, for whatever reason in these early year start games, they end up doing okay on these east coast trips. If you look back, some way somehow they do. Okay. So, no huge adjustments for me other than those slight ones.
Speaker 1:
A lot of subtleties, but they can make all the difference as we hit the home stretch on the season. Scott, go ahead and jump in.
Scott:
The point of the Rams. I mean, I saw something today. They had a little culture shock last week. I mean there was a lot of 49ers fans there and they said they had to adjust for, they weren’t even expecting that. So, you’re right, Chris. I mean, they really have no home field advantage. The other one I would factor in here a little bit, part of home field advantage is how well do you play at home versus on the road? And I would put Tampa Bay in that. Tampa Bay just seems like a team that plays so much better at home now. Last year in the playoffs, they were on the road the whole time until they ironically played the Super Bowl at home amongst a smaller crowd, but that’s a team that just seems to thrive very, very well at home.
Scott:
And something I heard last week during that game, it just comes to my mind now, we know they’ve lost some receivers here, so they’re playing with some younger, less experienced receivers. And I think it was during that game last week, they were talking, it’s much easier for Brady to work with his receivers and get him in the right spot at home in a game than if they were on the road and trying to direct his receivers to the right spot and do the right thing. So, there’s a lot of advantages there as well. And I think Tampa Bay has a little bit of a home field advantage as well.
Speaker 1:
I love that point on the Bucks, some next level analysis from both of you to answer that question and let’s hope that that next level insight pays dividends when we look at our best bets for wild card weekend, we can pull up a full screen graphic for the YouTube audience. Chris, a pretty full card. The Patriots plus four, the Cowboys minus three, the Cardinals plus four also a late add, the Chief’s laying seven in the first half. I’m seeing eye to eye with Chris taking the Patriots, plus the four points and Scott involved on the over 51 in 49ers cowboys, pretty clear with Scott and I having won bet, what our favorite bets would be so far on this weekend’s board. Chris, with what you’ve got in pocket so far, any nod to what you would consider a best bet?
Chris:
Nope. I say it every week. And it changes throughout the course of the week too, because sometimes your best bet changes on what you see everybody else is on and you just know that they’re not right if that makes any sense. So, I’ll put it to you this way, last week I had some games that I had buyers remorse on shortly afterward, and then as the week went on, I started to really like them just because nobody else was on my games. I mean, if literally nobody’s on your games, then that’s when I really start to like them. So, I just hope nobody’s on my games because I think they’ll do better.
Speaker 1:
All right. Well then apologies in advance if me being on the Patriots with you is just going to blow up that entire perspective. But I like our look there and everybody can keep an eye once again on the comments section below this video. Anything between wild card weekend or early divisional lines before we do the show again, next Tuesday, our picks will go in the comments section below that video. So keep an eye out there. And guys, one last thing I wanted to touch on is we hit the home stretch here. When we look at the playoffs versus the regular season, I wanted to see if you had any quick thoughts on how your handicapping process changes. Scott, I know there’s a good point you can make. Now that we’re in the playoffs, a lot of futures updated teams to win the conference teams, to win the Super Bowl, but it’s not necessarily the best value you can get. If you’re simply taking that plus number considering simply like a Money line rollover possibility, why don’t you lay that out?
Scott:
I mean, if you’re looking at let’s just take Tampa Bay for example, and say you want to take Tampa Bay to win the Super Bowl. I was looking before the show, one of my books, there’s seven to one, right? So you can bet 100 bucks and you’re going to win 700 bucks on that transaction if they win the Super Bowl. Couple things, I mean, number one, you’re locked in. That’s your bet and that’s it, right? And obviously if they go win, you get paid. If they lose, you lose. But generally speaking in the playoffs by betting the money line for these teams and just rolling that over every week gives you some better odds. I was playing with Tampa Bay and you got to guess a little bit who they’re going to play and maybe what the money lines will be for them in subsequent games, but just with some wild last guessing you could probably get eight to one with Tampa Bay by just rolling over the money lines.
Scott:
And obviously that’s dependent on who they play and what those lines are going to be. But generally speaking, playing the money line and just rolling that number over is going to give you a little bit better price than if you take a future bet. And not that I necessarily suggest this, but you’ve got flexibility there because you could stop at any point in time obviously and take your winnings and go home if your team keeps progressing. So you wake up one day and say, I’m not going to bet them anymore, but so I think you get generally speaking to the playoffs a little bit better odds, but rolling it over. So just keep that in the back of your mind, take a look at that as another way to play any kind of futures bets and the playoffs as well.
Chris:
And just to quickly explain it, some people may be confused on that. If you want to bet $100 on it, you just put the $100 on your team and if you win whatever you got back, put it back in on the next game they play and just keep by doing that. So you are still working with that same 100 and all the money that you’ve been returned, you put that back in.
Speaker 1:
Well I don’t have the option to do that for my team because my team’s not in the playoffs, but if anybody’s looking to back their team just for the hell of it, I think that’s a much more advantageous way to do it both for the better pay out you’re likely to get as well as what you guys have touched on the value of that flexibility. If you ever want to bail for any reason, you’ve got that option with the money line rollover. That’ll take us to the end of our look at wild card weekend. Thanks to everybody for tuning in. And for those of you with us on YouTube, go ahead and give us a thumbs up. Subscribe to the channel on your way out the door. And as a programming note, we’re going to be doing one show per week during the playoffs. It’s going to be at our regular time, just like this, every Tuesday, 5:30 PM Eastern, 2:30 Pacific. So everybody best of luck with your action this wild card weekend. And we will see you next week to break down the divisional around right back here at BetUS TV where the game begins. Don´t forget to checkout our sportsbook. Bye!
