Super Bowl 2023 Picks & Predictions | Chiefs vs Eagles Game Preview, Value Prop Bets & NFL Odds

Chris Farley:

I feel great when you’re in a position to talk about sports on these videos and everything. It’s absolutely a luxury. I’ve been pinching myself all season. At the same time, my goodness, I can’t wait for this game to kick off. I don’t think I’ve ever talked about a game more in history of my life. So two weeks in waiting, let’s get this thing rolling.

TJ Rives:

By the way, you popped on the wrong show if you thought you weren’t going to talk about it some more. We are going to talk about it some more, Kansas City and Philadelphia.

Hello, Brad Thomas. You are hanging in there. I know that Scott Kellen has been with us throughout the season. Brad has also been with us here and there on this program. I always love your insight. Good to have you back. How ready are you for Chiefs and Eagles?

Brad Thomas:

I am so stoked. Listen, even from the beginning of the off season, we spend so much time and energy dissecting the players, dissecting the schemes, dissecting the games. It just feels like the culmination of football. It’s a chance for us to celebrate, but for me, I want to win some money. I’m not going to lie. I want to have some adult beverages, some adult waters, but I want to get my last final bets home, so that’s why I’m super excited.

TJ Rives:

that’s what we’re here for on BetUS to try to help you out. We’ve been doing a great job with that. Now I should say to the audience, because we are live on Thursday, if you are with us live and you’ve been with us all year at 1:00 eastern time, we do have some opportunity for interaction, some Q&A. You’ll see some live comments or questions coming on the bottom of the screen. Again, if you’re obviously watching us after Thursday in the one eastern time hour, you’re just enjoying us in the recap mode. You may be seeing segments of the show later when it’s broken down. We always love the back and forth.

Now in Scott Kellen’s absence, I’m not going to do a Kellen impression. I don’t even know that there is a good Kellen impression, but I will give you some of his picks as we go along and you will see them graphically on The Best Bets. Scott couldn’t be here today. That’s okay. We’ll show you what he has at the end of the show and I’ll be telling you as we go along what he also likes in addition to Chris and to Brad. With that, guys, are we ready to dive in?

First, let’s take a look at the records on the show here. This is how the show finished up through the AFC and the NFC Championship games. Take a look at that. Everybody above 500, including Brad Thomas, part of that guest roll call that stayed above 500. Chris Farley above 500. Scott Kellen above 500. The show 20 plays above 500 for the season. We made you money kids. Don’t come complaining to us. We made you money to this point and no matter what happens here, you should still be good and you’re going to get a lot of good advice.

All right, I say for a second time, are we ready to go? We are ready to go.

Brad Thomas:

Oh, yeah.

TJ Rives:

It is Super Bowl 57. It is the Philadelphia Eagles. It is the Kansas City Chiefs. It is the first time that the Eagles have been in this big game since they defeated the New England Patriots back six years ago in Super Bowl 51. The Kansas City Chiefs are back for the third time in four years seeking a second championship for Andy Reid and for Patrick Mahomes. Obviously, this is a different coaching staff and a different quarterback for Philadelphia. That was Doug Peterson with Nick Foles for the upset of the Patriots.

All right, so we see that the Eagles still remain a short favorite with a total in this one of 51 guys. So again, it was interesting that that line opened, actually Kansas City favored by a point or two, and moved immediately from what I was told on the Sunday night right after the championship games, and it’s remained with Philadelphia as a short favorite. So let’s get into what we like and why for who’s going to win this game, either with the spread or with the total. Chris Farley, you will begin with an official play on what you like, what team you like for Super Bowl 57.

Chris Farley:

Yeah, so I mentioned this last week, but let’s just run through it one more time here for Super Bowl 57. If you run through all the different factors that go into betting any NFL game, you go over every single factor in this game, the Eagles are going to win a lot of categories. We’re talking about offensive line, defensive line, how talented they are at wide receiver. Chiefs are banged up a wide receiver right now. We don’t know Mecole Hardman, I don’t think he’s going to play. Juju’s banged up. Darius is banged up.

The thing about this game though is at the highest end of my power ratings, the way I rate these games, the way I rate these teams, what gets the most weight is quarterback and coach. That’s because it’s still a quarterback-coach NFL league. We’ve seen that year and year, over and over again. Of course, sometimes there are crazy dominant defenses that win Super Bowls. Mostly like reminds me of the Ravens back in the day when they had Ray Lewis and Trent Dilfer at quarterback. You don’t always need the superior coach and quarterback.

In this situation it is incomparable the comparison between Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes, Nick Sirianni and Andy Reid. This is Patrick Mahomes’ third time in the Super Bowl in five years. He’s been to the AFC title game every single year. He’s faced adversity as a professional football player in ways that Jalen Hurts has not just yet. I think because this game is going to be such a close game, that’s what the line tells us. One and a half has not moved. Immediate line movement, the sharps, of course we’re going to take advantage of that value on the Eagles, because they have been so consistent this year.

If you’re going to give me the Chiefs as an underdog with Patrick Mahomes in a one score game, I have to choose Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. I think it’s a good idea too to look at Patrick Mahomes as MVP. If the Chiefs win, it’s very, very, very likely that he will be the MVP. Hits at about 60% historically when the quarterback wins the game, but this is Patrick Mahomes we’re talking about. He’s had a bum ankle. I think this is going to be a fantastic game.

I think Jalen Hurts is just going to have a moment or two where he is going to feel the immense pressure. Kansas City’s going to force him to throw the ball. That’s what San Francisco tried to do. Of course San Francisco eventually was without a quarterback, so it’s pretty hard to game plan in the same way. I’m not saying Jalen hurts can’t rise to the occasion. That dude hasn’t shown us any reason to believe that he can’t rise at the occasion.

At 24 years old, your first Super Bowl against Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid, I’m going to take Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid every time. If I lose, I lose. These guys, I think, this is the start officially of a dynasty that we’re going to see over and over again. Philadelphia Eagles will be back, but I like the Chiefs in this one and I’m going to take them plus money at the money line.

TJ Rives:

Interesting. He goes officially on the record. We’ll show that graphically here in a moment or two. Brad Thomas, I’m going to come to you. All that talk, by the way, Farley, I know what you mean about Mahomes and the dynasty. Was two years ago leading up to the pandemic, crazy Super Bowl with the Buccaneers. Tom Brady and the Buccaneers stopped that dynasty talk by beating them in the second Super Bowl they had appeared in.

Brad Thomas is laughing because he’s a Buccaneer guy and he remembers that. Now the talk kicks back up again. Can they get a second Super Bowl win? Chris seems to think so. Brad Thomas, you’re not going to officially play this either on the line or on the total. Just give me a thought, short of an official play, on Super Bowl 57 either on a side or the total, even though you’re not going to do it on the record.

Brad Thomas:

Yeah, I’ll selfishly talk about this game on both the side and the total. So let’s first let’s talk about the side. It makes total sense why when the Eagles opened up as dogs, everyone bet the dogs. You think about it from a betting perspective as a handicapper we spend so much time to find value. I would say these two teams are closer to 50/50, 49/51 than a lot of people want to imagine, so you naturally want to take the underdog here.

Throughout the entire buildup to the Super Bowl, so many people have talked about, well, the Eagles haven’t played anybody. Well, the Eagles haven’t played against these kind of quarterbacks, and I think a little bit of that conversation is a little tough. It’s a little pill for us to swallow, a little tough pill for us to say. Why, because it’s not like they’re winning these games, and I’m going to use a college football reference, it’s not like they’re winning these games that TCU was winning.

They are having post-game win expectancies of 70, 80%. Basically, that means throughout the game, as the game was ending, they were supposed to win the game. When you think about A TCU, and I’m using them as the example because they went into the national championship and got the doors blown off. TCU had a lot of negative post-game win expectancies when they weren’t supposed to win. So I do think this Eagles team is getting a little underrated by, not by the betting market, but by people who are actually talking about them. Just like Chris said, I will probably be on the Chiefs if they close at around, plus 105, plus 110. Just because these two teams are so even on paper where I’d be a fool not to take the value on the underdog.

One more thing about this side. It’s kind of funny. Bookmakers want to protect themselves so much in this game where they set the line for the Kansas City Chiefs and then money just came flying on the Eagles, but they refused, they refused to give anybody Kansas City around that two and a half where you can buy the hook mark. They do not want people sitting with Kansas City plus three tickets, because I think they’ll be over leveraged, they’ll be in trouble.

From a fan perspective, I do really want the Eagles to win this game here. I’m an Alabama guy. My uncle used to cut Jalen Hurt’s hair at Alabama, so we are big, big Jalen Hurts fans. My parents are going to wear Jalen Hurts Eagles gear, and in Alabama and Mississippi you don’t root for a football team outside of your college. So they’re going to be rocking the Eagles. I’m going to be rocking the Eagles and I hope the Eagles win. From a betting perspective, because my wallet has no loyalty, I will have money on the Kansas City Chiefs.

I want to talk about the total and I’ll be really brief on this. The total is really interesting. We think it’s going to be a high scoring game. Most of the time, the Super Bowls are a little low scoring. We talk about teams who have these dominant, dominant defenses, the LA Rams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Bill Belichick Patriots, and that’s why they’re low scoring. I think this is one of those games with both explosive offenses. The quarterbacks have a chance to put up points at any point. So if you see a low scoring 3-0, 7-0 first quarter, I think it’s a chance for you to buy the over around 45, 46 and that’s how I’m probably going to play it. Nothing pregame for me, though.

TJ Rives:

All right, interesting. Here is these guys. Chris is going on the record. Brad is not going on the record. I will tell you that Scott Kellen, to the point about the totals, loves the over 51. That’s an official play on this show from him. You’re not going to see it graphically, you see Chris’ official play. We didn’t want to confuse the daylights out of the audience, any in any more confused by having me on the show. So weren’t going to put Scott’s pick under me talking.

So I’m just telling you Kellen’s pick is over 51 for this game. He believes more high scoring. There’s obviously some thought process that Kansas City’s defense is banged up. Philadelphia has run it and scored on everybody. So Scott Kellen says over 51. You’ll see that on The Best Bets at the end of the show. So he is right there with an official play as well on the actual game and what happens.

Okay, so those are the official plays. One more thing on this before we move to player props and then game props for Super Bowl 57. How much credence do you put in something that is the truth. It’s a fact. The Philadelphia Eagles with Nick Sirianni and Jalen Hurts have played three playoff games ever in the last two years. Sirianni, a two year coach, Hurts a two year starting quarterback. The Buccaneers wiped them out. Smile, Brad Thomas. The Buccaneers wiped them out a year ago in the playoffs. Wasn’t a close game.

They’ve now played two playoff games this year. Yes, they’ve won them, but they were both laughers in the fourth quarter. They’re both 14, 20 point spreads in the fourth quarter. Not a key moment, not a key possession in the fourth quarter. Chris, you first. How much credence did we put into Andy Reid has been in Super Bowls, Patrick Mahomes been in Super Bowls, been in close game after close game in the AFC playoffs together? How much credence do we put that if this is close, like we think it will be, third period, late third period into the early fourth, it’s advantage Chiefs. Chris, quick thought.

Chris Farley:

I’ve been chirping about this point a little bit, and I think it’s being regurgitated probably a little too much at this point, especially gambling Twitter, et cetera. There’s a lot of metaphors you can make here, but just because you have a successful NASA shuttle trip to the moon doesn’t mean you can get to Mars. This is a different world. This is a different kind of opponent. The Eagles have faced eight teams this year on their schedule who have a bottom 10 offense. They just haven’t been challenged. They haven’t seen this sort of offense, this sort of player, and you can make an argument that Patrick Mahomes is by far the best player on the field in the Super Bowl. No one else even comes close for what he can create from play to play.

So it certainly matters. It’s why we evaluate strength of schedule so hard at the start of the season for win totals, for our bets. Also, how much can we trust these teams when they get later into the season, into the playoffs, in these big games where, let’s face it, when those flash bulbs go off, it’s kickoff, the tension, the nerves are going to be different. Someone like Tom Brady handled that better than anyone else.

I think it’s almost a little unfair at this point. All the positive sentiment that we’re throwing at Jalen Hurts to a degree, because he’s 24 years old. If he flails in this spot, we shouldn’t be criticizing him at all. This is a really, really big spot. He’s done well in big spots before in college football, but the point is we just haven’t seen it yet from the Eagles. So we just can’t make that claim, we’ve seen this before. We know they can handle it as a team, their leadership, et cetera. We just want to see it. That’s all.

They’re so talented, really have match up advantages in every area. So in the end, it might not matter that much. There’s so much talent on the field, but at a certain point the ball’s going to be in Jalen Hurts’ hands. That’s what San Francisco tried to do. Put it in his hands, make him beat you. He air mailed a few guys, almost to an interception, maybe the shoulder’s still bothering him. So this is by far going to be their biggest test and it absolutely matters.

TJ Rives:

Hey Brad Thomas, again, just paint the scenario. If this is a close game and we get to a key third down in the fourth quarter with six minutes to go. They got to keep the ball. They’re behind by three. They’re behind by seven. We haven’t seen that yet to know does Hurts make the right read? Does he make the right throw in a pressure situation? It was cruise control against the Giants, sorry Chris, and against the 49ers in the fourth quarter. Brad, how valid is that point real quick?

Brad Thomas:

I actually think I’m more worried for the start of the game. Jalen Hurts not having been to a Super Bowl, it’s those first couple of snaps. When he gets the game rolling, he’s such a rhythm quarterback, you can tell. You can tell when Jalen Hurts is going to have a massive game. He starts off very hot and he just keeps going.

Let’s talk about something that’s going to make betters at ease. Jalen Hurts, when he probably was the most unpolished he was in his entire football career, played against the Clemson Tigers and had a two minute drill where he not only scored, but scored a touchdown and he used his most valuable weapon. It was his legs which led that drive.

When you have the great equalizer of the extreme strength and running ability of Jalen Hurts, I think it helps a lot to move the chains and key downs closer to the end. Now if you were to ask me between the two quarterbacks, who would I prefer in a game winning drive? That’s no question. It’s Patrick Mahomes. Patrick Mahomes is the scariest quarterback with 30 seconds or more left on the clock.

TJ Rives:

No doubt. All right, so just food for thought, if it is close, again, if you’re backing the Eagles, you may not believe this is going to be close in the fourth quarter. You may believe that they’re up 10, they’re up 14, and it won’t matter. Clearly if it’s tied or if they’re losing by a score, it does matter and we haven’t seen that yet. We’ll find out.

All right, plenty discussion right there on the game. Chris, on the record again. Scott on the record with the over for the team total. Now let’s get into the juicy stuff with the player props. Player prop time. Let’s get underway. Brad Thomas, why don’t you… Actually, Chris Farley, you’re going to begin with a player prop on what you like here and there’s going to be several. Even Scott Kellen has a player prop that I will mention. Chris, you’re going to begin us here in the order that we have with a player prop. What is it and why quickly?

Chris Farley:

Yes, sir. Yeah, BetUS not letting down our audience. Got a lot of bets for you guys. I’ll go with Isaiah Pacheco over 16 and a half receiving yards as my first player prop. We know that that Kansas City receiving core is banged up. We talked about already, Mecole Hardman, Kadarius Toney, Juju. If those guys play, they’re absolutely not going to be a hundred percent.

Pacheco in the AFC title game had the most, of course this is his first season playing, but had his highest target rate, snap count, reception yards, catches. We’ve seen that Jerick McKinnon little lackluster so far in the post-season, only averaging two and a half yards per touch. I think they keep on going to Isaiah Pacheco. I think he’s going to be really important for them.

Has that Ahmad Bradshaw feel for me from the past, the Giants. He’s got some burst. He runs tough. Tough kid too from violent New Jersey. I know that area. My son grew up there for a little bit, not a soft area. I think he’s a tough kid and I think he’s going to continually get the ball and they’re going to need him more than maybe we think in this game. So over 16 and a half reception yards feels like an easy head for me.

TJ Rives:

He runs hard. Will he catch it some? You did mention Hardman was actually placed officially on injured reserve and they activated Clyde Edwards-Helaire, but that is only can he play? He’s had a bad ankle injury. We don’t know, as we’re two or three days out here, how much can Edwards-Helaire play. He hasn’t played in over a month, so Pacheco may be a key part and Chris says in the passing game. All right, so Brad Thomas, give me a player prop for Super Bowl 57. What do you go to right away?

Brad Thomas:

Yeah, it’s my favorite one, jalen Hurts over 31 and a half passing attempts. First, let me back it up a little bit. When we talk about player props, we’re literally at Thursday, the game’s at Sunday, a lot of these player props have been absolutely smashed. Bettors and handicappers have just been hammering and hammering and hammering, but when you find one that is often overlooked and probably not as sexy as taking like Jalen Hurts’ rushing yards or Jalen Hurts rushing attempts, it’s fun to land on this. I’m on Jalen Hurts over 31 and a half passing attempts.

So in the first two games, they were cake walks. He obviously missed that. He had 24 passing attempts and 25 passing attempts and throughout the season he only averaged 30 and a half passing attempts, but we’ve talked about it time in time again. This Eagles team has absolutely destroyed every single team that they have played. Well, at least the games they’ve won. Let’s put it that way.

I think that when we look at this prop, we have to say what do we think the ceiling is going to be? What do we think the expectation of the game? I think the spread tells us a lot. It’s going to be a close game. It’s going to be back and forth, but I also think that the Eagles know they’re going to have to throw the ball. One thing that helps us out a lot with Jalen Hurts is we’ve seen it, since he’s been injured, his inability to throw the ball deep.

So how do you move the chains effectively? You throw to guys like Dallas Goedert or you throw these underneath routes to AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith. Those just pile up and pile up the attempts. I have him finishing somewhere around 35 if they win the game and a little bit higher if they’re playing from behind. So both those numbers clear over 31 and a half passing attempts for me.

TJ Rives:

Interesting on that, and again, I’m going to mention verbally here, you won’t see it graphically, Scott Kellen is in step with you, Brad Thomas. Scott likes Jalen Hurts to be over 21 completions. That’s the prop as of Thursday on the BetUS line. So Kellen in rhythm with Brad Thomas, thinks Hurts throws it a bunch and will complete at least 21 passes. You’ll see that graphically later in the show. I’m just telling you that’s an official play from Scott Kellen for this year. All right, so back to you Chris Farley. Another player prop, what do you like here?

Chris Farley:

Yeah, Travis Kelce. We all know Travis Kelce. His line’s probably going to be a little bit inflated at this point, but if anyone feels like, I was almost said lock, there’s no such thing as a lock in sports betting, but Travis Kelce is probably going to get targeted a lot. The middle of the field for the Eagles can be a little dicey, that’s all I’m saying. They’re very talented, but I think the middle of the field could be just a little more open than some other spots. They’re going to be all over those wide receivers.

Probably a lot of man to man in this game, but we know they forced the ball to Kelce. He could end up on the far right end side of the field on the goal line and you could find him running up the middle for a touchdown somehow. That’s just what they do with this guy. His brother playing on the other side as well. I think it’s important for Kelce to play his best football. I think Kelce, anytime touchdown. It’s one of the safer, more secure feeling touchdowns. Nothing’s secure. It’s the Super Bowl. It’s not a hundred percent hit rate, but Travis Kelce, really like him tell at least get in the end zone one time.

TJ Rives:

You see the comments rolling in here as well about Travis Kelce on that player prop. I’m interested in something too. You might get better value. I think he may have a big game. So this is TJ saying this, if you look at Kelce to score two touchdowns, anyway, anyhow, more than likely on receptions, you’re getting at most places, including BetUS, like six and a half or seven to one, two Travis Kelce touchdowns.

I think he could get two in this game, because I just don’t see a lot of other weapons besides Pacheco like you’re talking about. So Kelce, anytime TD is Chris Farley’s first or second player prop that he’s got. Give me another one, Brad Thomas. What is another player prop that you like here for Super Bowl 57?

Brad Thomas:

Yeah, it’s correlated with my first one. I’m going AJ Brown over 71 and a half receiving yards. I do think that this line’s going to come actually in the opposite direction. So for anybody who wants to be patient and monitor the line, I do think that you’ll probably get around 70 and a half at close, which I’m okay with. I’m okay with anybody wanting to take the value on the under and me being on the over. Why, because it’s a correlated play with Jalen Hurts throwing the ball a lot.

A lot of the targets, people think that AJ Brown’s this massive deep ball threat, which he is, but a lot of the targets, especially on this team, are coming short routes, short intermediate routes. One thing that I really saw that was very intriguing, of all the wide receivers in one-on-one coverage coverage, the number one receiver against one-on-one coverage is AJ Brown. Well, the Kansas City Chiefs won the most one-on-one coverages in the NFL, so that’s a pretty fun nugget to talk about.

Then we don’t talk about defensive DVOA too much when we get to the Super Bowl. Why, because generally it’s number one, number two, number one, number five, but a glaring weakness for this Kansas City chief defense. Their 20th against wide receiver ones in defensive DVOA. That is a huge drop off for if you think about the Philadelphia Eagles who are number one against wide receiver one in defensive DVOA.

So I expect AJ Brown to have a big game and it’s one of those plays that I think is a little protected against Jalen Hurts’ arm because he doesn’t need to have those 30 and 40 yard catches to still hit this. I do expect them to challenge this Kansas City secondary and this Kansas City safety group over the top with AJ Brown and Devonta Smith.

TJ Rives:

Well, remember Sneed got the concussion, got the head and neck injury at the beginning of the game with Cincinnati and then from there the Chiefs were playing three inexperienced guys in the secondary. So they do have an inexperienced secondary and maybe maybe AJ Brown can capitalize on that. At least Brad Thomas thinks he will to the tune of over 72 and a half is the official play here. That line may move between now and showtime Thursday. It might move, but that’s the play for Brad on the show.

Again, another Scott Kellen player prop. Scott not here, but this is an official player prop with me saying it. You’ll see it at the end on The Best Bets. He likes Patrick Mahomes to have at least two touchdown passes over the one and a half, over the one and a half total laying minus 220. Mahomes to have at least two touchdown passes in the game is a Scott Kellen official player prop play here on the final BetUS show of the season. Brad Thomas, you’ve got one more player prop to cover, your third one. What is that one real quick?

Brad Thomas:

Yeah. I’ve taken this bet at multiple different prices and in totals, it’s Travis Kelce over seven and a half receptions. I played it at over six and a half for minus 150. I played it at over seven and half when it was plus 110 on BetUS. So I’m excited. I don’t care that it’s minus 130 now.

Listen, we talked about the slew of injuries for the receiving corps. Hardman on the IR, Toney dealing with a injury, Juju dealing with the injury, but more importantly what we need to talk about is how none of those players are players that I’m all that excited about in trust. It’s the trust level, this is the biggest game. Who on this team does Patrick Mahomes trust the most? That’s Travis Kelce.

Let’s also talk about DVOA one more time. We talked about how great the Eagles are against the number one wide receiver. We’re going to call him Juju Smith-Schuster, number one in defensive DVOA. Overall against the entire receiving core as a unit, there’s number two. The only weakness if you want to call it a weakness is their number six in defensive DVOA against the tight end.

The last point I want to talk about, the man is on the field. In the last two games, he has been on the field, his snap share has been higher than every player except Patrick Mahomes in the last game and then Juju in the game before that. So he’s on the field. What does that mean? Is he getting a good target share? Yes. He leads the team in target share, an average of 24 and a half percent. If you look at those numbers compared to some of the best wide receivers in the world, he is top six. That means he’s getting targeted, targeted, targeted. In a game of this magnitude, you know he’s going to rely on his weapon, on his security blanket.

TJ Rives:

Well, and even in the game two years ago when the Buccaneers won, Kelce went off. I know Lavonte David, the outstanding Buccaneer linebacker, was all over him. He knocked the ball away a couple times, but Kelce still got to like 10 catches in that game and they were losing, so that made a difference. They were trying to play catch up. So again, we’ll lock Brad in officially on one more prop, his third, which is Kelce to get at least eight catches over the seven and a half.

There you go with some player props. One more phase before we get to some Q&A live here on a Thursday and that is game props. Game props still in play here and actually they’re going to be a couple of them from Chris Farley and one that I will mention from Scott Kellen. Chris, begin us again. Give us a game prop that you like and why.

Chris Farley:

Yeah, sure thing. Two game props for all you now. I don’t bet on Gatorade. I don’t bet on how long an national anthem’s going to go. Yeah, listen, if you have-

TJ Rives:

Is Rihanna going to sing four songs or five? Yes, all those different props.

Chris Farley:

My wife happens to think that she’s going to start with Umbrella. She’s very convinced of that.

TJ Rives:

Okay, all right.

Chris Farley:

Sounds good. You won’t see me betting on stuff like that, although if you have good intel, why not? I just don’t have that intel, but two game props that I really like. First one, this is a hedge for my Kansas City bet two, because I like the first quarter to start over nine and a half points. The last three Super Bowls, they scored exactly 10 points in the first quarter. Now, the last 15 Super Bowls average 8.6 points in the first quarter.

What did we see in the NFC title game? One of my favorite bets was that either the 49ers or Eagles will not get a first down on the first drive. Both teams do it immediately. Then of course Brock Purdy goes down, but the Eagles get a touchdown right at the gate. Eagles have scored on 63% of their opening drives this season, Kansas City 53%. You would think that their rate is even higher, but Philly has been very efficient in that regard. Both the top teams in the league one and two in points per play, first downs per game, points per game. These are two explosive offenses.

I do think Jalen Hurts is going to feel the nerves in the very beginning, but we saw in that San Francisco game against a great defense, those scripted plays from the very beginning. Philly does a great job at creating. Their offensive line works beautiful together. I think both teams score right away so we get at least 10 points in this game. Then maybe things start to settle down. We see a little bit more defense. With these two teams with how creative their play calling is, I just trust that they’re going to get on the board early.

Like I said, it’s a little bit of a hedge, because the Eagles have been dominant in the first half all year. This is how they win games. They get ahead and then they settle in and they apply that pressure. Leading team in the NFL at 4.1 sacks per game, so that’s going to be their recipe again. I expect them to at least have some success early. My second game prop is going to be Kansas City over 0.5 fourth down conversions. We saw it against the Bengals. Mahomes threw a touchdown on a fourth down conversion.

TJ Rives:

Yes you did.

Chris Farley:

Out of respect for the Eagles defense and just for how much they limit teams, all the injuries in the Kansas City side too, I don’t think points and I don’t think yards are going to come easy for the Chiefs. There’s probably going to be a situation, and I expect them to possibly trail early too. That’s what the Eagles are doing at teams all year. So Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs probably going to be a desperation spot at some point.

The Eagles go for forth down conversions all the time. This is the Super Bowl. They’re not going to hold anything back. They’re going to show their most creative plays. I think there’s a great chance that Kansas City has to go for it on the fourth down and one, or something like that. They’ve covered at 77% this year. That’s second overall in the NFL, so I like KC to hit a fourth down conversion as well.

TJ Rives:

All right, Brad Thomas, I’ll come to you in just a second. Again, Scott Kellen not here, he is been here with us all season long, but by proxy, I’m his proxy again, he wants a game prop and he wants to lay the 240 with the team to score last wins the game. Obviously, you got a 50/50 chance on that. He’s thinking though, close game fourth quarter obviously and somebody’s going to score late in the fourth or maybe at the very end to win the game. So again, the game prop from Scott is the team to score last. You won’t see it on the screen here. The team to score last wins the game.

Obviously, he’s not looking for something like the two previous Philadelphia games where you’re up huge and suddenly there’s a garbage touchdown that doesn’t mean anything from the team trailing, in this case Kansas City. That won’t mean anything to the outcome. He’s looking with that play. I’m just explaining it in his absence as close game and whoever scores last wins the game and he’s willing to lay 240 for that to win a hundred on that particular one.

Brad Thomas, any quick thought? You don’t have an official game prop. Any quick thought or any other lean before we wrap up the talk on props?

Brad Thomas:

Yeah. I’ll probably look at the national anthem, just get my juices flowing before the kicks go. I’ll probably take over. I’m a huge Chris Stapleton fan and I’ve been to multiple Chris Stapleton concerts. There’s no one in this world who tells a more drawn out long story than Chris Stapleton at his concerts. What is the national anthem? It’s a story, so he’s going to make it poetic. He’s going to draw it out. So I’m going to back the over on that. Guys, listen, these novelty props just for like Big Mac money, nothing crazy.

TJ Rives:

Well, the cost of a Big Mac has gone up, if you haven’t-

Brad Thomas:

It has.

TJ Rives:

Egg McMuffin, it has gone up. By the way, everybody gets into the what will the first commercial be on Fox? Will it be a beer ad, will it be a crypto ad, will it be a car ad? You can get in the weeds on some of those for the game props and for what happens.

All right, again, let’s do it officially up on the screen. You saw Chris Farley with his two plays for the game props. They are the first quarter over nine and a half points. You see that. Also, on the game props, Kansas City to get at least one fourth down conversion at any point in the game, and it may even happen early on in the game taking some chances. Again, I say audibly, Scott Kellen on a game prop, the last team to score wins the game. The last scoring team will be the winner of the game however it is and he’s laying 240 for that.

We have time for a moment or two live questions. We haven’t often done this on the NFL Show. Brad and Chris and I are familiar with live questions. If you are in the live chat right now, let’s get a live question or two particularly on things that we have not necessarily covered as of yet. All right, A-Rod brings up an interesting question. Most scenarios have either Mahomes or Hurts being the MVP of their team wins. If you had to choose a non quarterback MVP, Brad Thomas you first, give me a non quarterback MVP.

Brad Thomas:

Yeah. Realistically, it’s got to be Travis Kelce. He’s sitting around 16 to one. He has the ability to absolutely take this game over, 150, two or three touchdowns, and if he does, he’s a good shot. I’ve told some people that if you’d want to bet on the Chiefs, why not take a little bit of action on Patrick Mahomes winning the MVP and a little bit a action on Travis Kelce to win MVP. You’re getting better NFL odds than plus 105.

TJ Rives:

Good on that. Chris, any thought on who besides the quarterbacks and besides Kelce? Could it maybe be a defensive player like Hasson Reddick if he dominates, gets a couple sacks, sack fumble, whatever? Any thought on a non QB most valuable player?

Chris Farley:

Yeah, you took the words right out of my mouth. I would agree with Brad about Travis Kelce because other than Kelce and Mahomes, I think it’s going to be really tough for somebody else to win MVP if the Chiefs win. On the Eagles’ side, there are so many different players that could win it. Jalen Hurts, I think a little less likely just because of how loaded they are and just the game narrative of what might actually happen. They might have to lean on that run game again too.

Yeah, on the Eagles side you could see, because Pastor Mahomes is arguably the most important player in this game. Is he going to make it happen again at the end of the game, some Mahomes magic? Maybe it’s a defensive player who gets that final sack, maybe he already has a sack or two, or a forced fumble at that point. So you take a flyer like a Hasson Reddick, I think not a bad look, because one of those defensive players could get it for the Eagles. That’s going to be a great story. You stopped the most explosive offense, arguably one of the most explosive of all time, in the last moments of the Super Bowl if that happened. So I like that as a flyer.

TJ Rives:

All right, interesting. There have been defensive players win it. The Buccaneers, Brad knows this, very famously beat the Raiders. Dexter Jackson had two interceptions in the first half. The Bucs went on to score 48 points and Dexter Jackson got the MVP, because of what he did in the first half with the interceptions. Ray Lewis famously was a defensive MVP in the Super Bowl. Desmond Howard, remember the one year, I know we’re going back into the nineties, ran the kickoff back for a touchdown for Green Bay. He got the MVP and a packer win over the Patriots. So there have been nine QBs win the most valuable player. It’s just not that often that it happens. Usually it becomes a quarterback award if that is the case. FUrca is watching us says, “I like the first half under 24 and a half points.” Any quick thought? Chris, any thought on that on the first half under?

Chris Farley:

I’ll say this, I usually do approach the first quarter and first half under, because of the pressure of the moment and that’s treated me pretty good over the years. Like I said at the start for the first quarter as an example, what these teams have shown us all year, I don’t like the under as much for that reason. The Eagles and Chiefs are one and two average points per first half. So obviously the nerves are going to come in, things are going to change a little bit, because it is the Super Bowl, but I still think they can get there, so I wouldn’t bet the under.

TJ Rives:

Brad Thomas, any quick thought on a first half under in Super Bowl 57?

Brad Thomas:

Yeah, I’m not going to bet the under. I think that these two teams are just so explosive and this is one of those games where I’m going to be trying to load up on live overs if it starts slow.

TJ Rives:

Good enough. Mark watching. Thank you, Mark. Says, “What are your score predictions for this game?” Do you guys, I know Chris, you’re on the money line. Brad, I don’t know if we got a prediction on the outcome on you. Guys, you believe this is a high scoring game? Again, Scott Kellen is officially on the over so he believes something in the twenties, the mid twenties, high twenties, something like that. What is a thought on a score either of you?

Chris Farley:

I can start. Yeah-

Brad Thomas:

You go ahead.

Chris Farley:

I was on the under last week and as you can tell on this show, I’m not on the under anymore. I pulled out of that. I just think there’s too much evidence that both of these offenses can succeed and obviously both have elite offenses. You could argue only the Eagles have an elite defense and I trust that Patrick Mahomes is going to get his points. So I do expect a lot of points in this one. I think it’s going to be 27 to 24 Eagles with a minute left. Final score of 31-27, Chiefs.

TJ Rives:

Pull it out with a high scoring game. Brad Thomas, quick thought?

Brad Thomas:

Yeah, I was going to expect it was going to be somewhere like 31-24. Everyone’s going to say it’s going to be close. I said it’s going to be close, but I think the Eagles do win this game. Again, that’s telling you I’m not going to put money on the Chiefs though. I’m going to have to do that at plus money.

TJ Rives:

Interesting. Nishaun says, “Philadelphia rushing attempts as a prop, rushing attempts in yards?” Any thought on the Eagles who’ve run it on everybody it seems like all year. Any thought on that, Brad, quick?

Brad Thomas:

Yeah. I’d be on the over, I like Jalen Hurts over 10 and a half for his own and I like Miles Sanders. I think he gets to at least the 15 number. Then yards, yeah. When you have a quarterback with explosive legs and then a running back who’s going to be running the ball 15 times, why not? That’s not to mention we add in guys like Gainwell, we add in guys like Boston Scott. So yeah, I wouldn’t mind that.

TJ Rives:

That could include Hurts on the rushing attempts. Any thought on Philly rushing attempts, Chris?

Chris Farley:

Yeah, the average is, I believe, around 30 attempts per game is one of the higher in the league. My only challenge for that is that I do believe strongly, we’ve seen Steve Spagnuolo in some of these big games before when he was a Giants defensive coordinator is pretty aggressive. I think he’s going to force Jalen Hurts to throw the ball.

Doesn’t mean that Philly’s going to stop running the ball, but if Philly stops having success in that regard and you do have an absolute beast in Chris Jones in the middle of that defensive line. Eagle’s offensive line is extremely elite, but there’s a chance that they might not be able to run the ball as easily as we’ve seen in this game and Jalen is forced to throw. Especially, if it’s a close game and they’re playing from behind. So that’s my only caveat out there, but that’s a bet that would’ve hit most of this season over, over, over on Philly, so I can’t talk you off it.

TJ Rives:

Thank you for the live questions guys. Great stuff from the handicappers. One thing left to do, we’re almost done. Best Bets now you’re going to see graphically, not only Chris and Brad’s plays, but you’ll see Scott Kellen’s plays as well in the middle. I’m not going to go over all of that. You can see it on the screen, including Scott’s plays right down the middle of the screen as to what he’s on.

You might want to screenshot that kids and be ready for that for Sunday for having all of those different plays, including player props. What do we give you? Two, four, seven player props. They’re in the middle to play on Super Bowl 57. Guys, we’ve come to the end of the BetUS NFL Show. We’re out of stuff to handicap, because the Super Bowl’s over. We’re done until next season it looks like. Final thought? Chris Farley, final thought?

Chris Farley:

Well, what’s awesome is that of all three of us who have bets, no one has the same bet and every single bet could hit not one bet negates the other. So that’s awesome. We could go like-

TJ Rives:

For the record, we did not plan it that way.

Chris Farley:

We did not.

TJ Rives:

You guys didn’t know what each other were picking. We didn’t plan it that way. It’s a good point, Chris

Chris Farley:

Absolutely. So take all those bets if you wish. Just wanted say it’s been absolute pleasure being on this show this year. Loved being with TJ and Scott all year, Brad when you come on. Obviously, obsessed with sports betting and all this, just like the rest of us. Just a pleasure. I’ve enjoyed it every single week. I could talk football all day and as much as I say I can’t wait for this game to happen, let’s get to it already. As soon as it’s over I’m going to be grieving, because I’m going to miss football immediately. So I look forward to the future with BetUS and thanks so much for having me this year guys.

TJ Rives:

Hey, love it. Good luck with your official plays. Brad Thomas, one more time my friend. Anything else?

Brad Thomas:

Yeah, man. First of all, I want to thank everyone watching. Without you guys, we wouldn’t have this platform where we get to just yap about sports and bet on sports for the public. I appreciate everyone at BetUS for letting me come on and shed my light, because just like Chris, just like everyone who play who comes on all these football shows, I absolutely love football. I will be just like Chris, balling come Monday when there’s no more NFL games, no more college football games. Either way, I’m going to have a ton of adult waters, eat a ton of chicken wings, and I’m going to enjoy the Super Bowl.

TJ Rives:

Listen, it’s been a lot of fun all season long. We began this all the way back in the second weekend in September. Now we have come all the way to February and we’ve had a lot of the same people hanging, watching, and being with us. Thank you. Thank you to the audience. We’ve seen massive, massive audience for a lot of this season. Obviously, as the season is wound down into the post-season, the audience has grown and grown. Thank you for that.

Thank you to Antonio, to Kevin, to Alejandro, to Danny, to everybody behind the scenes, Francisco, I’m going to leave somebody out, Ignacio, everybody behind the scenes at BetUS that put together the graphics, the shows, all the technology. Thank you to everybody involved with BetUS for making us look good or trying to make us look good on the show with graphics and all the stuff you see.

It’s been a blast for the BetUS NFL Show. This is it, guys. Super Bowl 57 is all we have left. The Chiefs and the Eagles coming Sunday. For Chris Farley, for Brad Thomas, for Scott Kellen in his absence, you saw his official plays, good luck to all of our handicappers and let’s see what happens in Super Bowl 57. You’ve been watching the BetUS NFL Show.