NHL Picks, Predictions & Best Sports Betting Odds [Jan. 27]

Dana Lane:

Hey, good morning, everybody. Welcome to the bet US NHL pick show I’m Dana lane in Las Vegas and as always, I’m joined by Alex B. Smith in Minnesota. We come to every Tuesday, Thursday, and Friday from 11 to 12 Eastern time. Alex, nice call the other night on the Panthers and the Jets easily going over the total nice job.

Alex B. Smith:

Oh, thanks. Yeah, that was a fun one to watch. You see this back and forth hockey. We’re seeing that with a lot of teams, getting these goals and bunches and, and these totals can’t be high enough. Although we’re going to talk about shockingly low total in a game that scheduled for this evening.

Dana Lane:

Yeah, definitely. That one stuck out to me that first we’ll talk about nothing a little bit, but looking around the league right now, or last night, Alex, not, not too many surprises, but the sharks got a much needed win on the road as a plus $1.85 Dog against the Washington capitals. This was a game that the caps started out as a $2 favor. Got bet online up to $2.20 at Bet US. And the problem for the sharks again, I mean, it’s kind of a watch on this team because it’s a very compelling story. The problem for the sharks is they’re tied for that last playoff spot right now. They’re technically no longer in that spot, but both Dallas and Minnesota have five games in hand and both of those teams are on hot streaks. I don’t see any way the sharks, unless they go on a 10 game bender can maintain their position in the playoffs.

Alex B. Smith:

Yeah, I absolutely agree. Like I said, even though they’re, they’re able to find wins against a good team like Washington, but like I said, they just got so much that they have to climb through and, and finding, consistency in that Pacific division, which just seems like it’s going to be up and down. I mean, we’re talking about how Edmonton seemed to be falling off the grid and now all of a sudden they’re back on the rise. It’s going to be a true battle for them. Looking through, they’ve got a couple long road trips in the second half of the season, they’ve got a lot of games against division opponents so they’re going to have to take advantage of those spots. But like I said, especially now this road trip, they’ve got the rest of the way, Florida, Carolina, Tampa Bay. If they’re going to make some noise, you got to do it against the best in the east. Off to a good start with that win last night.

Dana Lane:

I will say one thing about Edmonton, even though, they had that seven great game losing streak, and then they, they have won, two in a row against Calgary and Vancouver. I will say they have played pretty well inside their division so that still is a plus for them. So last night, Alex, before we get to our, our four games on the schedule, I went, I was a little bit creative and looked at some numbers and because of are so high on the money lines, I looked at puck lines and I said, okay, what is, is there any distinct trends when we’re betting puck lines? Is there any way to say, okay, I see what’s going on here, but first of all, if you blindly bet the puck line, meaning you would lay the one and a half this season, your record in every game would be $2.84 and $3.68.

Dana Lane:

Now that would only give you a win percentage of 44%, but your money would be up over 4,000 units on a $100 wager. That doesn’t include last night’s games. Then I wondered what effect does the top offensive teams in the league have? So, meaning if I betting online Toronto, or if I, bet Edmonton on a consistent basis on the puck line, is that going to give me some plus money? So I took the top 10 offensive teams last night and found out that if you bet them blindly on the puck line, you’d be $2.06 and $1.98, which is 51%, but you’d be up 3138 units or return on investment of 8%. I asked you last night, maybe thought about this. Is a top offensive team, which obviously it makes sense because when you’re laying a goal and a half, you don’t want a bottom feeding offensive team. You want a team that’s, has a not only is going to win hockey games, whether or not they win it in regulation or, say the first, say 48 minutes. In the last two minutes, they get that extra empty net, or, but regardless it does make sense to have the best offensive teams when you’re betting puck lines. So maybe that’s something that we could look forward to as we move through the second half of the season.

Alex B. Smith:

It, it can be the one small caveat could be where some of these favorites, like we talked about earlier, we’ve seen them become astronomically high, taking a consideration of Colorado where we’ve seen them lay five or as high as up to $7.

Dana Lane:

Seven twice.

Alex B. Smith:

Right? When you get to that point now, you’re actually laying a huge price on the puck line as well and so if your books offer and most shops, including BetUS will offer it, you sometimes might even have to look at you, get a little dicey here with, maybe getting, laying two, laying two and a half.

Dana Lane:

Right.

Alex B. Smith:

That sounds crazy in theory, but that’s where your value is because you’re seeing these teams, like I said, with these great offenses, they’re winning some games eight to two, eight to three. So, you have to be a little more creative if these, if we start seeing these gigantic favorites, but if in the mid range, I guess we have to call it, mid-range now favorites of $2 and $3.

Dana Lane:

Yes.

Alex B. Smith:

You’ll be able to find some, some good value with teams. And I one thing too, we’ll talk about more in the second half of the season. We talked about with teams having a lot of divisional, interdivisional matchups left over if they’re teams that are still battling, let’s say it’s the first place and a third place team. They both need points. It’s tied three, three with five minutes left. They’re not going to do much to really risk, trying to win that game in regulation. Hey, let’s get our points individually and, and see, settle it out in three, on three overtime. That’s something to keep in mind too, where it kind might scare you away from even regulation bets in the later portion of the second half. We’re, we’re not that in that range yet, but probably around March and April, we’ll be talking about, seeing some more draws happening because teams just need that point need to get points and standings and don’t want to risk, getting out of there with zero.

Dana Lane:

Well, that’s why I give you the subjects, because I know that you’re coming up with compelling arguments and of course, with anything you want to add common sense to it. You never want to lay, $2 on a game, even if you’re, even if you’re sure, Colorado’s going to get a sure win. You’ll stay away from the minus twos. Maybe, that is, something that didn’t go into these figures at all.

Alex B. Smith:

Sure, fair.

Dana Lane:

So something to think about moving on and when you’re, just a little bit of a handicapping tip, maybe when you’re looking at these big cards and in a way maybe to take these big cards and get it down to a few games that are more manageable. Okay. Onto today’s schedule Alex, we have four games we’re going to talk about first game is going to be Carolina at Ottawa.

Dana Lane:

And we see the hurricanes are a $2.30 favor. Of course that’s not unexpected six and a half with the total Freddy Anderson and Matt Murray are listed. But as we talked about before the show, Alex, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Anton Forsberg in goal and the reason is the last time against Carolina, he did get a victory against them. Although Matt Murray is coming off of a shut out, win against Buffalo. These it’s very important to pay attention to social media and in the morning skate and see who comes off first. But we saw the other day and I watched this closely against Vegas, Carolinas scored three regulation goals. They had a bunch of other chances. I mean, they could have been in the five, six range, had it not been for Brossoit, but if I’m DJ Smith, I watched what the Knights did and

Dana Lane:

they’re an extremely aggressive defensive team.

Alex B. Smith:

Yeah.

Dana Lane:

I think for Ottawa, who is not as skilled as Vegas, I think they’re going to stay back a little bit, which may or may not work because they really have tried to get out and transition as quickly as possible. But I think that that’s going to be the game plan going forward tonight, now for Ottawa, it’s extremely important for them to get pucks off their stick quickly. It’s extremely important to have guys giving you, help giving you support because what Carolina likes to do is pin you up against that half wall. They’ll bring three guys on your one thinking they’re going to win that battle and that creates offensive chances for Carolina. Alex, I’m going to go under the total on this tonight. It’s a little bit high for me on the money line, but I think that Vegas gave Ottawa the blueprint for what to do in this. I think that defensively, you’re not going to see a lot of pinching. I think that that’s going to at least clog it up a little bit for Carolina tonight.

Alex B. Smith:

I would agree with that and to add to that as well, obviously, the senators missing one of their top scorers now with Drake Bason that, that hit that he took from Aaron Dell. That that’s going to be a huge blow to the senator’s offense. I mean, this guy was, was on track to possibly get 90 points at the end of the season. So very unfortunate loss for Ottawa long term, and that’s going to affect their offense. Like I said, they’re going to have to be more responsible defensively. You can’t get into a fire fight with a team like Carolina. The only thing I would look at here would be the under as well.

Dana Lane:

I can also see too, where this is maybe a let down spot for Carolina. You play a critical game overall in the standings, kind of a message sent down the road, Stanley Cup message against Vegas. It’s not out the realm of possibility that those two teams would find each other at the end of the day, but you play them and then you get on the road for a quick game against Ottawa before you come right back home to face the devils. You know how I love to throw a psychology into this stuff. If I’m Carolina I’m thinking, all right, let’s get up there, get a win. Let’s not get hurt. Let’s get back home again. I just think this is going to be a very defensive game. Not maybe for 60 minutes, but enough where we don’t get enough goals over that six and a half.

Alex B. Smith:

Yeah, absolutely and this could be one where if we do see a fast start, maybe a quick goal early, you can even get a better adjusted price on under maybe you around under seven at a plus number potentially. So that’s something to look at as well.

Dana Lane:

Absolutely. Okay. Game two. I’m going over that Carolina or under, I’m sorry. In the Carolina Ottawa game. Game Two is yours Alex Los Angeles Kings and the New York Islanders. Islander Minus $1.45. You want to talk about this total? Because I mean, we, I don’t know, maybe correct me if I’m wrong. I don’t remember seeing a five yet this year I saw it go up to five and a half for a second on somewhat on some sites, but it is down to the five on most, again, it looks like Jonathan Quick and [Bar Lomoff 00:10:58] is listed in this one.

Alex B. Smith:

I think we saw one five with maybe like Bruins devils early in the season and that just got quickly steamed up to five and a half and it was gone, but I was stunned when I saw this open five and it was minus $1.25 and like I said, it was at Mo Shops. Now we’re seeing mostly five and a halfs at plus money, but either way, I like this over, these two teams. Normally you, when you say the Islanders, you say the LA Kings, you automatically think unders, but this Islander team, they’ve had some troubles at times on their back end. They’ve played a little bit with a little bit more pace, a little bit more tempo. That like said just to find a five these days is very rare. LA they’ve been trending under for the most part. Their offense has spurted a little bit, but every now and then they’ve gotten some kind of soft goal tending spots from, from Quick and Peterson. This game just feels like it would go over five. If this was five and, and a half, if this was six, rather I would probably be staying off of it. But five and five and a half, I feel comfortable with that going over. I think we could see exactly six goals here.

Dana Lane:

Yeah, it’s not on my card, but it’s certainly an intriguing matchup. This might also be a decent plus money chance there for, for the Kings who are plus a dollar, 148 units on the road this year, which is 10th in the national hockey league. They’re playing the Islanders who have not played well at home. They’re 22nd in money won overall in the NHL minus a dollar 544 units.

Dana Lane:

So You might have a little bit of a chance with some plus money opportunities here. The Kings are 1-0-1 their current trip. We’ll see them play 12 of their next 15 games on the road. You would figure you’re going to get a decent effort out of a fresher team. Maybe more than you would on the, on the back end. The Kings have played extremely well against the Eastern conference dating back to last season or 14-4-2 against the Eastern conference this year.

Dana Lane:

So even maybe Alex, the total certainly looks like something that’s, that’s fallen in your lap, but perhaps, maybe there’s a plus money opportunity with the Kings. Now, the only thing that I would say to that is, when we’re talking even about totals and I, and I equate it to the money line as well, I look to see what kind of power play or special teams opportunities do we have. These teams are pretty mediocre in penalty kill and powerplay. I don’t know much about what you’re going to do there, but you may get something one or two from the Islanders, because there are plus 11 and net penalties this year at home that puts them in among the top teams in the league. You have a King’s team that has minus eight net penalties on the road. Perhaps there’s a little sliver of hope when on the outside you would look at it and say, well, we’re not going to really get anything from special teams as far as the total is concerned, but maybe perhaps the Islanders have a little bit of a shot to give us something there to put us over that five and a half that you like.

Alex B. Smith:

Yeah, absolutely, and this is LA king. I’ve backed them quite a few times this year as a dog, like I said, and on the road as well. So it’s important for them to get these points. We talked about the log jam that we’re going to see in the Pacific division. It’s important for them to get these points on the, on the road again, the Eastern conference teams.

Dana Lane:

Okay. I will not have an official position on that. I do agree with you, Alex, five and a half to the over. I’m not at five. I’m not laying $1.40 on that, which neither are you, but we both agree on that. Yeah. Okay. Game two, Vancouver, game two for you, Alex, Vancouver Canuks and Winnipeg Jets tonight. This was a late add to your card to Alex and I assume you love the goal tending match up, which I’m starting to understand your handicapping a little bit. You see a goal tending mismatch, at least on paper. You jump all over that. We see Winnipeg minus $1.65 in this Spencer Martin is listed as getting the start. We’ll see if that happens. Of course, Connor Hellebuyck, who seems to be the only goal tenderer available to the Jets is listed as the starter for the Jets. Am I, am I right about the goal tending matchup, Alex?

Alex B. Smith:

Yeah, you are and Hellebuyck, hasn’t been his usual self. I mean, this is a guy who, was consistently and talks of winning the Vezina year after year. He’s been a bit average and we expected that. We talked about that at the beginning of the year, how we might see a down turn with him because the amount of minutes he plays, this guy is an absolute work horse. But you can’t ride goalies like you could, back in the day, these guys need a little bit more rest. Like he said, they don’t really have anybody available right now on the flip side for Vancouver, Spencer, Martin, he, I mean, he, he played his, his balls off basically 47 saves and, and overtime loss against Edmonton. That’s a great effort, but it’s still end up being a loss.

Alex B. Smith:

So, he’s got two loss against quality teams. They, taking them overtime. I think the books are going to, overact a little bit and say, oh, is this guy the real deal? Nah, not so much. He’s still young. Now that we’ve got some footage of him, teams are, are, picking up tendencies and seeing these things at some point in time, they’re probably going to start getting to him. This is two teams that are on a downturn Jets to have lost five in a row. Vancouver’s lost three in a row. Something’s got to give here. I like the Jets on the puck line. I think That makes sense.

Dana Lane:

Yeah, I can understand that for sure. I looked at the total for a second, not an official play, but I looked at the total for a second. Spencer Martin, as you said, had made two starts this year, both starts were pretty consistent. He had 47 saves, like you said, against Edmonton the other night and an overtime loss, but he’s allowed just four goals on 84 shots so far and his two opportunities. This is a guy you could clearly say, okay, well this is a guy that really hasn’t played meaningful NHL minutes since 2016, 17. That is also true. But this is all also a guy that I think is coming into his own as, as a 26 year old. I think he’s starting to hit his peak as a goal tenderer, you look at his minor league record, not impressive at all. In fact, he’s a game or two under 500 at the minor league level.

Dana Lane:

He’s got a bad save percentage and bad goals against, but again, don’t put so much at, into what you see at the AHL level because the defenseman in front of you, regardless if you’re, playing on the worst defensive team or the best defensive team in the NHL, you’re still going to get better goal tending or better defensive effort in front of you than you would, say playing an Abbotsford. But this year with Abbotsford, these 5-0-2 to 2.24 goals against save percentage over 9.20, maybe starting to hit his stride. We know this he’s going to go right back down pretty soon, because now with, with HelocK and whatever, Thatcher Demco comes out of COVID protocol, he’s going to find himself back there. I think this is a guy who’s extremely motivated to make a mark before he goes back down.

Alex B. Smith:

Yeah, and at some point in time, I think he will get a legitimate shot to, to, be a true number two or maybe even a one B option in the NHL odds. But I, I just think, like I said, with what he’s seen so far, yes, he’s made great strides against two good teams, but, I just feel like the dam’s going to burst at some point it could be in this game tonight.

Dana Lane:

Yeah, well, four to one would be okay for both of us, I think. Yeah. I can definitely see that, but an interesting story to watch moving forward. Okay. My second game tonight, my official play comes from the Nashville Edmonton matchup. The Oilers will be a slight favor against Nashville. Six will be the total Juuse Saros will get the starter is listed for Nashville, Miko Coskin. Of course, for Edmonton. It does look like according to our Bet US numbers, both teams minus $1.10. That has changed since I, I last look at that. For me, Alex, I think this is a good spot for Nashville. The Oilers are on a two game winning streak and we feel if I’m Edmonton, I feel good about that. A good win against Calgary, for sure. A decent win against Vancouver, but a shorthanded Vancouver team that has had a lot of health issues.

Dana Lane:

I think this is an important game for Edmonton, because if they lose this game to Nashville, I think you go right back to that mentality that you might have had when you were losing seven straight. They, this is a team in order to really wipe away that streak, where they lost three times out of favor and, and they were just lost and you could see it in press conferences. They were getting, feisty with, guys that were asking questions, beat reporters, asking questions, and maybe the beat reporters were also getting a little feisty. But, the only question I still have Alex is can this Edmonton Oilers team be quality teams? I mean, teams that are currently in the top three spots in their division and currently in this season, Edmonton is 0 and 7 in that spot with a goal differential and minus 22, which means not only have they lost seven straight in the spot, they have absolutely been demolished against the better teams, you have a Nashville team that’s won 15 of their last 21 games. They’re 12 and 2 following a win, which they had the other night against Seattle. The only question for me when I’m betting Nashville is can you stay out of the penalty box if they are able to do that? I think you’ve got an opportunity to get a winner with Nashville tonight.

Alex B. Smith:

Yeah, absolutely. This is one I had circled as well, liking Nashville. I was on them the other night regulation against Seattle and, and, got that win. Like I said, they’re getting in their right stride right now. , and like I said, not too far behind from, from Colorado in that top spot in the central. So, points are, are, at a premium for them as well. Like I said, if they can stay out of the penalty box that’s crucial against Edmonton, this is not a team you want to give, have power play opportunities too. McDavin, Draisaitl will absolutely bury you with, with a man advantage. That’s something that’s going to be an imperative for Nashville in this contest and really just moving forward, the cleaner, the game you play, the better results you’ll get. That’s something that you definitely want to keep, keep in mind with this contest. But I, I would look at Nashville here in the spot too. Like I said, the Oilers okay, the two wins, they got, like I said, solid enough to finally get over the Hump of that losing streak. But like I said, can they play with these top tier teams? We, we have yet to see that.

Dana Lane:

Yeah. I still think in the back of their mind, there’s a question of, can we beat a team like Nashville, especially if Nashville gets the lead, which makes them even more lethal to the other issue is yes. Edmonton, if you’re looking at statistics, yes, Edmonton has a second best power play in the league they were number one for a long time before Toronto took over that spot of late. But over the last two weeks, Edmonton has the 12th best power play, which is still a very effective power play cashing in at 25% of the time, but maybe they’re not as lethal as they used to be. So if you’re handicapping the game, you say, well, shoot, Nashville is the most penalized team in the national hockey league. Edmonton has the second best power play in the national hockey league. That’s an easy winner right there. I’m going to the, I’m going to the window, to get an Edmonton ticket. But for me, it’s like step back a little bit because there has been a lack of potency in Edmonton, at least up to their standards. If Nashville gets the lead in this game, I think it’s going to be very difficult for Edmonton to come back.

Alex B. Smith:

Yeah. I definitely agree it up.

Dana Lane:

Okay, Alex, we, so you have your, do we have questions? Questions about tonight’s card at all?

Alex B. Smith:

Yeah, we do. We have one about the Calgary.

Dana Lane:

[crosstalk 00:22:59] You do? I can’t get questions.

Alex B. Smith:

I got, I got them up on the, on the YouTube page.

Dana Lane:

You got it. Go for it.

Alex B. Smith:

But we got Calgary and, and St. Louis, and this is going to

Dana Lane:

See now this is why we don’t get to questions and answer Calgary and St. Louis you back now, buddy. Okay. All good. We’ll talk. Talk about Calgary and St. Louis A little bit, and I’m looking at the number. I’ll wait for Alex to get back. It’s down to $1.37. I don’t know if St. Louis, if that’s manageable to me, I don’t want to be involved in $1.37. But again, that depends on where your bank roll is. If you got a pretty good bank roll, you may want to take a chance with St. Louis. But to me, I would be on the over on this you’re it’s minus $1.15 or so to the over that to me looks like the right side in this one. Alex, if I could ever get Brian to do that, that would be that would’ve been fantastic for the first couple months.

Dana Lane:

But anyway, that we’ll go through our selections today, Alex has got the questions. I don’t know if there’s any others, but I’ll read em for Alex as he’s completely stuck, like Han solo and Empire Strikes Back for Alex tonight. We’re going LA Kings, New York islanders. Over the five minus $1.40 and, and Winnipeg minus one and a half, plus $1.45. That’s pretty good right there. If you’re laying $1.40 with a team and you’ve got a $1.45 to back that up, that’s a good backup in case you lose that $1.40. For me tonight, we’ll go with Carolina Ottawa under six and a half minus $1.25. And we’ll go with Nashville money line, hoping to get some plus money. Didn’t get it minus $1.10. That’s it for our selections for Thursday. Guys we’ll be back tomorrow. Same time between 11 and 12 Eastern time for Alex B. Smith. I’m Dana lane. Thank you. Thanking you for joining on the Bet US NHL pick show. We wish you all the luck with your wagers tonight.