Stanley Cup Playoffs | Picks and Predictions & Best Betting Odds [May 13]

Dana Lane:

Hey everybody. Good morning and welcome to the BetUS NHL picks Show. I’m Dana Lane. Thanks for joining us. Last night, boy, I’ll tell you, I mean, we got the Bruins game over and I was telling our producer here that I think we should have gotten that Toronto Maple Leafs play as well. I mean, we watched that game. It was one of the worst officiated games I’ve seen in the post season. And I’m not crying sour grapes. I’m just telling you what we saw and anybody who saw that certainly would know that as well. So let’s get back to it tonight, but we’ll try to get back on the winning track. I’m so bitter about losing Toronto last night when I still feel like I had the right side. And I hate when guys say that, but that’s what I’m saying tonight.

Dana Lane:

So let’s take a look at our three games, starting with the Rangers at the Pittsburgh Penguins. Puck drops seven o’clock Eastern time, four o’clock Pacific. Game six from Pittsburgh. Rangers own a 3-2 lead in the series. And although this series is leaning in the Rangers direction, the Rangers have lost seven of eight in Pittsburgh. So let’s see how tonight’s game works out. The number on tonight, on this game, Rangers -125, 6.5 under, -15. This number did open -$1.30. So we’ve seen some money come in on the Penguins in addition to the public absolutely pounding the over in this one, which is expected. Listed goal tenders, Shesterkin, and Domingue for the Rangers and Pittsburgh tonight.

Dana Lane:

The elephant in the room though, guys, is certainly the health of Sidney Crosby and whether or not he’s going to be able to play tonight. And this number clearly, I mean, I asked a sports book director yesterday and he agreed with me that clearly this number is indicating that they don’t expect Sidney Crosby to play tonight. And honestly, I don’t either. I can’t see this number being what it is if Sidney Crosby is going to be in the lineup. And I think that the books are anticipating that as well. And we have a forward group for the Penguins that’s already depleted because Rickard Rakell is out of the lineup.

Dana Lane:

Again, it just goes back to when you take one of your top guys out of the lineup, there’s a complete shuffle below him. And so when you take Crosby out of the lineup, everybody has to shuffle below him. And I guess what we’re going to see tonight from Mike Sullivan’s team is probably Jake Guentzel on that top line. Evgeni Malkin’s going to center. That’s the obvious choice at this point. So it would be Guentzel, Malkin and Bryan Rust on that top line for Pittsburgh.

Dana Lane:

And of course, we talked many, many times about how this affects everybody below them. And now you have a second line of Danton Heinen and Evan Rodrigues and Kapanen. And the further you go down the line, the more you wonder for me where the scoring is going to come from. And the key to Pittsburgh tonight is going to be whether Rodrigues is going to be able to have some sort of chemistry with Kapanen. They’ve had that chemistry in the past, but whether or not they’re able to find it on short notice, it is going to be another thing. Danton Heinen has been terrific in the post season so maybe there will be some scoring there. But I don’t feel like I want to lean on that, or I can lean on that with my money. Obviously, speed is not going to be a problem with this line. Each one is very capable of getting behind a ranger D men. So that’s not going to be a problem.

Dana Lane:

But when you start calling up guys from your AHL affiliate in Scranton, they’re calling up some size. I don’t know how much of a part they’re going to play in this game, but I really feel like this is a Penguins team that’s a little depleted. And especially with Crosby out. I mean, that’s not going out on a limb. It just feels like when Crosby’s out of the line up, there’s nobody there to settle the game down when it starts getting out of hand. And I think that’s a real problem. And we know from the Rangers standpoint, the one part about this series that they have had a ton of problems with, and that is staying with that Penguins top line. With Crosby out of the line up, that is a huge loss. And that goes without saying for sure. Without Crosby there’s no… If the Rangers get up, I just don’t feel like there’s anybody to lean on. And I know Malkin has played pretty well in the post season. He’s a point a game guy in this series. But to me, you take a Crosby out of the lineup, everybody else has to shuffle on short notice. And I think that’s going to be a problem for the Penguins tonight.

Dana Lane:

So let’s take a look at tonight’s official selection on the game. Rangers are 37 and 14 as a favorite. They are 64 and 27 as a road favorite. Yes, I am well aware that that goes back a little ways. But just to give you a history of how they’ve done in the post season and regular season in this situation, they’re also seven and three when they’re playing on one day’s rest. Pittsburgh has dropped eight of 11 as an underdog, which means when Pittsburgh plays the better teams in the league, they are still unreliable at this point. We’ll see what happens in the rest of this series, but I’m going to go and lay the $1.25 with the Rangers. I just think that the loss of Crosby is way too much for the Penguins to overcome. So we’re going to go -$1.25 with the Rangers.

Dana Lane:

Onto game number two, Florida Panthers at the Washington Capitals. I’ll get that right someday. 7:30 Eastern time is the puck drop, 4:30 Pacific. Panthers own a 3-2 lead in the series. So obviously tonight’s game is a closeout affair for the Panthers. Let’s take a look at the number on this. Panthers, big road favorite, -$1.80, 6.5 over, -30. We’ve seen some public money come in on the over, but the SI has yet the budge, even though the majority of the early money is on the Capitals. Just not enough to move this number, but kind of watch that if you are somebody that wants to bet the Capitals. Because if you are, I think this number is going to go the other direction. So get on it right now if you like the Capitals.

Dana Lane:

Goal tending matchup, listed goal tenders, Bobrovsky will get the start. Samsonov for the Washington Capitals. Those are the listed goal tenders and we know that you need to… I say this on a daily basis. We talked about Minnesota last night where Marc Andre Fleury was a scheduled goal tenderer when we were doing these videos. Well, Cam Talbot got the start. He was the first one off the ice at practice and that usually indicates who’s going to get the start that night. So make sure that you know who your net minders are when you go ahead and put money on these games.

Dana Lane:

And despite the fact that the Panthers scored five times in game five, I still think that we haven’t seen the best from the Panthers. I think they’ve shown despite not playing their best effort, that they are able to win these games based on the superior talent, which I think that they have in this series. And aside from the eight goal outburst in game five, this has certainly been an under series. I’m looking at every game right now. It’s been an under series with game five being the only one that saw both teams help out betters push that game over the total. Of course, we see a complete over reaction with money coming in on the over, even though this total is at 6.5.

Dana Lane:

When we look at a total in a specific game, the only thing I’m concerned about is am I going to get beat on special teams? Do I feel like special teams is going to produce two or three goals that is going to push this game over where five on five, if it was a five on five affair for most of the game, it would not. So I’m trying to kind of weigh that. And I do that with most games, but for the Panthers, I mean, when you’re 0 of 16 on power play attempts, which they are, I just don’t worry about getting beat too much on special teams, even though the Capitals have been terrific. If the Panthers can limit their time in the box, which has hurt them in the series ,I think that is going to help us cash in under ticket.

Dana Lane:

I still think that the Panthers come into this game with a lot of pressure on them. If you listen to interim coach Andrew Brunette, he talks about pressure on a daily basis. That’s all his press conferences are about. How nervous they are and how much pressure that they have on them. I don’t know. There’s a lot of coach speak this time of year. I don’t know how much I believe that, but you do see a little bit of that, certainly in game one and game two. And at times the Panthers, you kind of scratch your head and say, this is not the Panthers team that I’ve seen all season long.

Dana Lane:

One question that still remains and maybe is getting erased a little bit is how good Sergei Bobrovsky is going to be in the post season. He made 30 saves the other night. And I think he’s been pretty good win or lose. A lot of times, you put the win and loss on a series on your netminder, but whether Florida wins or loses this series, I think Sergei’s been pretty good in this series. So I don’t know if you can blame him for anything that might happen later on in game six or a potential game seven. I think we can rely on both goal tenders. I think special teams goals are going to be at a minimum tonight. So we don’t worry about going over that total because one team’s being sloppier than the other.

Dana Lane:

So let’s go to tonight’s official selection on this game. The under is nine, four and four,, in the Panthers last 17 games, overall six and two on one day rest. Meanwhile, the under is 30, 14 and seven when the Capitals are underdogs. And of course, that dates back to the regular season. Which means they grind out games against the better teams in the league, which is what we’ve seen in this series so far. I’m going under six and a half, getting the plus money. I know the public is probably going to drive this game over, but I’m going to grab that plus money right now because I feel strongly about this game even though I might be able to see $1.15 a little bit later on in the day.

Dana Lane:

Okay. Game three, Calgary Flames at the Dallas Stars. 6:30 Pacific time is the start, 9:30 Eastern time is puck drop. And for as dry as this series has been, it’s been exactly the style that both teams want to play. Both teams want to say, okay, you beat us for 200 feet, because we think defensively we’re better than our opposition. Well, now you have two styles that are really clashing. Two teams that are built for the post season, that whoever wins the series, I think is going to have a lot of success moving forward. Let’s take a look at the number on this game. Calgary -$1.60, 5.5 under, -$1.35. Neither number has moved since it’s opened, but we’re seeing a high percentage of money coming in on the Flames. Although not enough money to move this number at all.

Dana Lane:

So tonight’s goal tenders, Jacob Markstrom of course will get to start for Calgary. Jacob Oettinger for the Dallas Stars. That’s not confirmed, but that’s certainly not debatable. That is what your match ups going to be tonight. And this series for me, has been as close as any, in terms of finding room on the ice to get quality scoring opportunities. There is no room. Of all the playoff series, this is the one that is the tightest. This is the one where you better get the puck off your stick as quickly as possible because in about 1.5 seconds, you’re going to get slammed up against the glass. There is no room. So both teams are built for each other like we said. Basically they’re sitting there waiting for each other to make a mistake. If they make a mistake in their own end, that then that’s where the offense comes from. There’s a lot of offense based upon defense in the series.

Dana Lane:

This is a Flames franchise that’s still, to me, growing up right before our eyes. It’s an organization who hasn’t been able to find their way into the second round on a consistent basis. They’ve been there in the second round, just twice in the last 32 years. And you may say that is old news, but we certainly talk about this current group of Calgary Flames team, this core group right now has also been accused of not being able to make it to the second round. So that’s not old news that’s news. That’s news pertaining to this team right now, which is one of the reasons why Darryl Sutter was brought into this organization, to get to that second round. Flames were able to grab a 3-2 lead in a series, but not because they played well in the game. I mean, in fact, up until that third period, I didn’t think Calgary played very well at all. I mean, Dallas played a very structured game trying to nurse that one nothing lead. They weren’t able to do that. And finally Calgary broke through with three goals for the win and the puck line cover.

Dana Lane:

Jake Oettinger absolutely has been terrific. He’s got a two and three record, but save percentage is around 96%. Goals against 1.63. Those numbers are good enough for me. Let’s take a look at tonight’s official selection on this game. Jake Oettinger’s been terrific. Jacob Markstrom we know is terrific. I’m going to take the generous plus 140 with the home team in this. As I mentioned before, the Flames are just six and 14 in their last quarter final games while Dallas is won to five of seven at home and four or five when playing on one day’s rest. This is just a matter of the Flames need to prove to me as an organization that they can close out an opening series before I start riding with them the rest of the way. And really this NHL picks is about the number. You’re going to give me a $1.40, obviously we’re just trying to build bankroll. I think that’s a very generous number to give and I am more than willing to take that ticket and put it in my wallet.

Dana Lane:

Okay. Well that’s all the time we have today. We appreciate you joining us. Join me again on Tuesday when we get you set up for the second round of the post season. This thing’s going by quick as the whole season has. Thank you to my executive producer, Antonio. I’m Dana Lane. Also check me out on social media, Dana Lane Sports. Contact me anytime during the weekend. Until on Tuesday, we appreciate you joining us and visit our sportsbook page. All the best and thanks for your time.