Premier League Picks Matchday 1 | Premier League Odds, Soccer Predictions & Free Tips

Now my guests are and experts from the UK. We have award-winning owner in Mark O’Haire and he’s a award-winning owner of We Love Betting. On the other side of the pond is Brad Thomas. Brad, are you from Florida?

Brad Thomas:

I am from Florida, yes, down in Orlando.

Flash:

Okay, so we’ve got both sides of the pond absolutely covered. Mark O’Haire, week one doesn’t get any bet than that, but let’s throw it out there now, caveat.

Mark O’Haire:

Yeah, yeah, caveat alert, it is week one, a lot of these squads are still coming together. If anyone’s seen the preseason friendlies, there’s been a few key injuries. There’s still been a lot of speculation surrounding key players for certain teams and clubs. We just see today that Man City are almost getting a deal over the line for Gvardiol, the talented center-half from Croatia, expect more big clubs to do more big business between now and September, we’ve still got a full month, really, for these teams to sculpt their squads, so a lot can change between now and the start of September, October, November until we get back into January. Then yeah, there’ll be another caveat alert. And we’ll have more caveat alerts when there’s international breaks around the corner too.

But yeah, obviously I tend to… I think there’s two schools of thought, really, when you start the season, you either have strong views on your teams and you want to oppose the market, early doors or like me, probably be a little bit more tentative and just kind of want to take a bit more of a watching brief just to get a feel for where these teams are right now. Because we saw Arsenal fly out of the traps last year. Man City struggled to keep pace with them, really, for a long part of that campaign, but it’s hard to tell who’s ready and who’s not come kickoff time, but certainly after the first week or two we’ll have a better idea of that.

Flash:

Brad, this is such a competitive season, I don’t believe that anyone can afford a slow start, that’s going right down to your Spurs, your Villa, your Brighton, they’re all going to have to come right out of the traps. So I see goals early, but I don’t know about you, but I like to watch for the first three or four weeks. I have my little bets here and there, then in week five I really, really get stuck in.

Brad Thomas:

Yeah, so I’m taking every bet that I’m playing very, very small. Like you said, it’s natural to want to see goals because how competitive the Premier League will be this season. But we have to remember in Premier League’s past that they don’t start out flying, they don’t start out with these four-goal explosion games, it’s typically the one or two goals. So I do play my early first… I’d probably say go up to three to four weeks where I play it very light, and then I really start getting a grasp of how these teams are playing, how they look, how they’re playing tactically, how they’re meshing together with their new players, who’s leading the team, that’s when I really put it all together. But it’s still just so great to have the Premier League back in just one week.

Flash:

Yeah, listen, I’m often happy to sit and watch a nil-nil, but not early on in the season. And when you look at these squads, by the way, you go down and you just base them on merit, there’s not really a really good defensive outfit. You could look at maybe one of the newcomers in Burnley, who are probably going to be the most defensive. But again, they had over 100 points last year in the Championship. Okay, let’s not worry about anything anymore, make sure you get yourselves in the chat. We’ve got Idris Jr. We’ve got Lockhighs. Listen, Mitch is up early. Jonathan Nelson’s in now. Good luck, Jonathan Nelson, I hope you have a really, really good season, you are due.

Let’s kick off with our first game, it’s a Friday night game, and it’s newcomers, Burnley, hosting the Champions, Man City. And not just the Premier League champions, the European champions as well. +850 for the home win. Man City -350, the handicap’s at 1 1/2. If you think Man City win by two clear goals, it’s -120, that will suck a few in. The draw is at +475, but the total of the game is at 3. With over 3 at -105 under 3 at -125. Mark O’Haire, you go first here because I see this as Burnley just trying to stay in the game. They go behind early, it’s finished.

Mark O’Haire:

Yeah, yeah, probably is a fair assessment. It’s not the most eye-catching opening games. I know there’s narrative here with Vincent Company taking on Man City, but it does have the feel for being a kind of routine away City victory. I did wonder if there are any trends really surrounding city and the starts they’ve made to seasons really under Pep Guardiola, and had a look back at their opening games in recent years. Last season they started with a 2-nil win at West Ham. The year before a 1-nil loss at Spurs. 3-1 win at Wolves in 2020. A 5-nil win at West Ham in 2019. 2-nil at Arsenal in 2018. And 2-nil at Brighton in 2017. So a lot of their matches have been away from the Etihad, to start the season, and they have been just pretty much routine victories really by that 5-nil thumping of West Ham.

But of those seven matches, six wins, four of them, one without conceding, so I can see why people might be keen to back City to win this match and not concede. Yeah, in terms of caliber of opposition, you’d suggest Burnley are no better than the majority of those teams that they played. Obviously they are a newly promoted club, but I fully expect them to consolidate in the Premier League this season, not just because of what they did in the Championship last season but how they did it as well. And they’re a very progressive club. They will like and enjoy it having possession, and trying to match City in that sense, but it still looks like it’s going to be backs to the wall in terms of the opening day.

So the issue I have here is how do you want to play Man City to make something work and I guess if I was to get involved it would be Man City and something unders based. That is a little bit short, and as we’ve said before many times, it’s never really a fun watch when you’re backing opposing goals in a Man City match. So the alternative is the win to nil really. But yeah, I don’t know, just opening day, Burnley at Turf Moor, just coming up after promotion, plenty of momentum, feel good factor, optimism, enough red flags there for me to leave it alone. We know that Gvardiol is signing for City, he probably won’t be available, or he might be available, actually, in time, but whether he’s fit enough to feature is anyone’s guess really.

So yeah, and as we know City, it’s hard to engineer value in City matches. We know they’re the best team on the planet by a country mile, and the market knows it as well, so there are no secrets around them, so it’s very hard to engineer something of real value. So I’m happy to leave it alone, but if I did have to forecast this match it would be a 2-nil away win.

Flash:

Yes, 2-nil. That’s exactly what I wrote Mark O’Haire, I love that. Week one of 38, and we are on the same page with the very first selection. Now if you’re looking at numbers though, Burnley not to score at -110. Well, let’s rule out the nil-nil straight away, Brad, because Man City win to nil is +100, so we’re not looking at a nil-nil. But remember, Man City, they have a real, real consistent 1-nil, 2-nil away victories comfortable. I see this being exactly the same, with Burnley trying to stay in the game, don’t go behind, and then sooner or later, Man City break them down.

Brad Thomas:

Yeah. No matter what Burnley tried to do in this match, it’s going to be Manchester City who have the ball. We know that Vincent Kompany is going to want to try to keep possession against this squad, but this is probably the best possessing team in the Premier League in Manchester City. It feels routine. I stayed away from this match just because of that newly promotion at home bump that Burnley might face where if they get just the slightest look on goal, they convert and score one. It would be one of those gross travesties where you have Manchester City to win to nil, which probably will happen, but if Burnley scores one, they’ll score one on an xG of, I don’t know, 0.25, something that’s absolutely ridiculous, something that they probably didn’t deserve.

But if we want to look at the numbers, what the numbers tell us that your best bet in this is Manchester City to win 2-nil because you look at Manchester City right now, it’s -1 1/2. I imagine that number -1 1/2 is probably get to -1.75 before the opening kick with more bets coming on City right there. Moneyline set around -350. But then we look at Manchester City’s team total to score at least two goals is in the -230 range, and then it’s juiced to over 2 1/2. But Burnley’s -112, -110 to score a goal, so you’re basically coin flipping that is what the books are telling you.

So they’re telling you that Manchester City is going to score multiple goals, but there’s a coin flip for Burnley so why not play the plus money on them to win to nil? Because you’re getting about what a six or 7% edge by taking that as opposed to not taking Burnley to score or Manchester City, -1 1/2 is more like a 12 to 15% edge. So if you want to look at it from a number standpoint, that’s what the numbers are telling you. I’m staying away just because I don’t want emotions of this Burnley team to somehow find a goal. I don’t want that to happen.

Flash:

Yeah, I don’t see it. I don’t see how they’re going to do it because it’s one of those that you’re going to have to have a go at Man City if you’re going to score. Just that there’s no need to go back to them numbers because obviously I’ll memorize them, but if you’ve got Man City at -1 1/2 at -120, and it’s 2-nil, you’re getting -120 for Man City winning to nil, which is +100. Also, if Man City win 1-nil and we’ve seen it many, many times because they keep the ball, and know they’ve got a long, long season ahead of them, then you’ve actually, in your head, you’ve picked the right because you know that you’ve gone with -1 1/2, not expecting Burnley to score.

+100 you’ll see is my official pick that Man City win to nil +100, and we’ll have no negativity of Burnley deflection or VAR, let’s have no VAR early. Remember that is on the Friday night, this game as well, this will kick off the Premier League of 2023/24 season. Okay, let’s move to game number two.

Let’s put the boot in. Early on, it’s Everton at +114 against Fulham at +234. The under over straight away is at 2 1/2, with the over at -115. If it goes over 2 1/2, then Fulham are definitely going to be contributing. But you can get Fulham at -111 at +0.25. You can see already this season that’s very, very new. Normally we are pick them, or we are + 1/2, but now we’re combining them so you can have the +0.25, which then obviously gives us another variation of maybe coming up with a winning bet. The draw’s a runner at +252. And also you’ll see we go down with the numbers, we’re not rounding them up anymore, we are giving you the latest numbers. Draw is at +252, Brad. Fulham, Everton, I think Fulham gets something out of the game.

Brad Thomas:

Wow, this was a tough, tough handicap for me when I was looking at this. Anytime we want to back Everton, which I’m absolutely not doing, you want DCL to be in the lineup, he’s probably going to be out right now he’s about 50-50, I might project that he’s out. But then on the other side of the ball there’s no more Mitrovic for Fulham. Piera is probably out, I think he’s like a 75% out because he fractured his ankle and will undergo surgery and then they bring in-

Flash:

Did you say probably be out? Did you say probably be out with a fractured ankle?

Brad Thomas:

I know what I’m talking about.

Flash:

You sick man, you sick man, “Fractured ankle, get yourself on there, don’t worry, man.”

Brad Thomas:

Then they bring in Gonçalves, who I thought was a brilliant midfielding signing, who’s going to be out as well because he dislocated a bone. So I see this game being low scoring. I don’t want to bet on this game, but if I look at a low-scoring game, it takes one to win, a draw gets you in the window, it kind of leans me more towards Fulham at the double chance but it was a little too juice for me at the -145 range, so ultimately I sat out. I just don’t rate either team that high, but if I were to pick a side and have one rated higher, it’s going to be Fulham. Everton aren’t going to get anything with DCL out.

Flash:

Not for me, Mark O’Haire, Fulham far too sharp, they grew, they’re always involved in basically going forward, and I’m going to get almost like double chance with +0.25, which means if it’s a draw I win half my bet, I don’t lose half my bet, I win half my bet. So I’ve got Fulham and the draw, and the draw being, basically, probably the favored one here. But I cannot have Everton, I’m fading them from day one until they show me otherwise. So Fulham too sharp, will create, maybe 1-1 this game if a gun’s to my head. But it’s Fulham +0.25 for me Mark O’Haire.

Mark O’Haire:

Yeah, I can see it. I would’ve followed you every day of the week really, but in this particular circumstance, Brad’s already alluded to there’s key men for Fulham who may not be available, and I do have them sort of regressing this season as well. I think they overachieved last year, in my ratings I had them closer to the 13th or 14th best team in the league. There’s a chance second syndrome could strike, Marco Silva’s been courted by Saudi Arabia, he’s turned them down, but I still think there could be something in the offing there. But it’s not just that, Mitrovic is angling for a move away, he wants out, he didn’t play in their most recent friendly. Fulham’s final pre-season friendly is tomorrow, it doesn’t look like he’s going to feature. The replacement for him is Raul Jiménez, which is a massive downgrade since his injury.

Then you’ve got Willian, who signed a deal with the club, and is now looking like he’s off to Saudi Arabia. But the key one really, not just Mitrovic, is João Palhinha, he dislocated his shoulder in pre-season. He’s not going to be available, or it looks impossible for him to really get back to full fitness. So having him and Mitrovic unavailable is enormous really for Fulham. Palhinha, for me, would be in the team of the season last year, he was that good, he made such an incredible impact in that midfield. Without him, without Mitrovic, without Willian, without, possibly, Pereira as well, you’re taking out some of the real leading lights of last season.

So whilst I’ve absolutely no inkling to get Everton on side whatsoever, just six wins at home at Goodison Park last season, a terrible goal scoring record, as Brad says DCL may be missing as well, so there’s not really a huge amount for me to like in Everton, but there’s just enough warning signs there for me with Fulham too, who admittedly were very, very good against the bottom half last season, I think they lost three of 20 games against the lesser teams. They won all five of their trips to the bottom five teams as well. So there was a 16-point gap between these two teams.

But I just think in this particular occasion, a week out from the first game of the season, I need to know a little bit more about that Fulham team news, and at the minute it doesn’t look very good. So yeah, if I had to have a bet on this match it would be Fulham +1/4, Fulham +1/2, that’s more so because I can’t stand Everton. But yeah, there is a few warning signs against Fulham there too.

Flash:

Yeah, the DNA is where I’m going here because Everton don’t do anything very quickly, don’t create enough chances, and even at full strength, I would still want to be with a Fulham side who shift it, they pass, they move, they have pace and they’re confident on the ball, and they will create chances. There will be people that just go with Fulham here at +234, but the draw is a runner at +252. And thanks to the BetUS line makers, they’re going to give us Fulham basically +0.25 around -111. So I’m not going to look a gift horse in the mouth. If I get it wrong, I’m not going to get it wrong too often by opposing Everton. So my official pick here, Fulham +0.25 at -111.

Let’s move on to… wow, this is a massive game. We’ve got some really, really big games first week up. It’s Newcastle versus Aston Villa. Remember Newcastle, they’re at -133 but they’re going to be fighting on so many fronts this year and Villa are the dark horses to break into the top six or seven at +345. The draw is at +294. Newcastle Villa over 2 1/2 goals is at -128, under 2 1/2 at -102. This might be the… well, it’s the third game we are covering, but this might be the first time that we lock heads because Mark O’Haire, I think that this is going to be a really, really tight game down to the managers not wanting to give away too much.

Mark O’Haire:

Yeah, I agree. I’m really looking forward to this one. It’s the Saturday evening kickoff here in the UK. It’s the game of the weekend for me. Obviously, Chelsea versus Liverpool is the headline match here, but with Chelsea so early on in the Pochettino rein, and Liverpool revamping their midfield, this is the match actually that stands out. You’ve got two really ambitious clubs that look settled, that look ready to challenge, ready to try and kick on after what were really good seasons for them each last time out.

Newcastle, big season ahead. The competition for the top four is more intense this time around, the bigger fish should be better than they were last time around too, so it’s going to be tough for them. Eddie Howe will be really eager to make a strong start, especially at St. James’ where they were really strong last season, just two home defeats against Liverpool and Arsenal. Harvey Barnes on board, Sandro Tonali. Anthony Gordon now had having had a decent summer, he’s fit and available, so that squad is starting to come together. But do I really want to back them at minus money, quite short, minus money at home on the opening day against a Villa side with similar aspirations looking to emulate the success that Newcastle have had? Not really.

I tend to ignore all the hyperbole around pre-season, but the accounts kind around Aston Villa are really quite glowing, actually, apparently they’ve been looking really, really smart and slick during preseason. And you can’t really fail to be impressed by the business that they’ve done. Pau Torres, Tielemans, Moussa Diaby, also getting Diego Carlos back to full fitness. And the turnaround under Emery last year was nothing short of spectacular, really, what he managed to achieve with that group of players, which were so dreadful with Steven Gerrard in charge.

So yeah, I think defensively they’d be very diligent, very difficult to beat. But the same attributes could be lauded towards Newcastle as well, just five defeats last season, a rock solid spine that gave away the equal best goals against record with Man City. And for the record as well, they kept nine clean sheets in 19 at St. James’. And Emery oversaw nine Villa clean sheets in 25 league games, and nine of the 12 away games under Emery went under 2 1/2 goals as well.

So because of my respect to both teams’ defensive ability, and the fact that this does look like a very competitive clash on the opening day, I wouldn’t be rushing to back a goal total in this game. If anything, I probably would look towards the unders, and in that sort of situation I always think the draw is worth a small interest actually. So it will be a watching brief, but if I had to back something it’d either be Villa +1/2 a goal, or if I want something a bit bigger, I’d be looking at the draw price at +294, possibly slightly shorter I’d prefer or +300 at least really. But yeah, I think you are right, Flash, this could be a tight one.

Flash:

Yeah, draw halftime might’ve been… I was tempted to go draw halftime waiting for neither of these sides really to go behind. We know what Unai Emery is like. We know that there’s not many tactically better than Eddie Howe. We’ve got really, really good personnel down 1-15. These are two strong squads now, and Aston Villa going away at Newcastle, this might be the best time to get this out of the way because Newcastle don’t drop many points at home, Brad. I’ve got this maybe down as, maybe, I don’t know, 1-1. But again it’s one of those that if you saw Newcastle win it 3-1, oh, you’re not surprised. But I’m not too sure, I had to stay away.

Brad Thomas:

Yeah, no, I’m going to be on the opposite side of you, and I try so hard not to just gush over preseason friendly results but like you said, this Aston Villa team, and it even stems from the closing of last season, they’re a team that can get forward, a team that can score goals. In the last two fixtures of these two teams we did see over 2 1/2 goals. I cannot promise you that we will get CLV on this line, so this is not for the faint of heart, I’d imagine this will probably close closer to the -118 number for over 2 1/2. So if you play it, I’d suggest waiting on this number because you’ll get a better number, and that’s mainly because Newcastle are so tough at home they only saw like a 47% overrate.

But these are just two teams where if one side goes down early, if we get a goal within that first 25 minutes, it’s going to explode, it’s going to get stretched because the other team’s going to try to get goals. That’s the reason why we saw those results that we saw last season was because one team scored and the other team tried to go back and get some kind of result and they conceded again. And if that happens, it’s how you build and build and build that goal total up. It’s just too much talent on this pitch, attacking talent, and probably one of the better attacking teams that Unai Emery has had in quite some time. I was really interested in the both teams to score market, which was absolutely my favorite, but I do think that if we do get that early goal, I can throw that both teams to score market out of the way because we will see over 2 1/2 goals.

Flash:

Draw at +295 just keeps jumping out. I’m thinking that brings in that nil-nil-

Brad Thomas:

It does.

Flash:

… because this is probably the one game in the whole of the Premier League this weekend where you wouldn’t be surprised by nil-nil. But there again one is going to be a +550? Yeah, it’s a really, really good game to watch because both of these sides, they’re going to be carrying our money at certain stages. But everyone in the chat, we’ve got 3-1 from MH, Newcastle win. We’ve got 1-1, we’ve got unders, we’ve got overs, this is why this game-

Brad Thomas:

It’s a great match.

Flash:

… is really causing headaches. Yeah, it’s a great match. Let’s have a little look to see who was brave enough to actually put it on there, and it was Brad over 2 1/2 at -128. But remember he thinks that CLV might not be in our favor here, he thinks it might be closer to maybe 120, maybe -118.

Okay, let’s move on to another game. Well, who’s going to score the goals in this game? It’s Brentford versus Spurs. We’ve got Brentford +194, at home, no Ivan Toney, remember. Spurs +130, Harry Kane, what’s going on? Draw +262. Brad, over 2 1/2 goals at -130, I’m not sure I see that. I quite like Spurs really, but I don’t know how to get them on side, and also who’s going to score the goals for either side?

Brad Thomas:

Yeah, this is a tough match for me to handicap as well, but probably the main reason I stayed away, we don’t actually know what we’re going to see from either side. Tottenham bringing in a new manager over here and then we have Brentford who’s going to be playing the bulk of the season without Ivan Toney. It’s one of those where I don’t mind waiting and see. If I had to pick a lean, I would probably just go with value, and that would be under 2 1/2 goals. But do I really want to play under 2 1/2 goals in a Brentford match? Not necessarily. But if you’re telling me that I get it at even money, it makes me a little bit more excited because both of these teams when they need to be, especially Brentford at home, they can be locked down defensively and I don’t imagine Tottenham are going to have much of the ball in this match, not enough to create unless something changes drastically over this off season. Man, I’d probably lean under in this for even money

Flash:

Under new management, it’s one of those we can’t be second-guessing. We go to a club, it’s no good, we’re not going to that club anymore, I’m talking about a nightclub now, let me digress. I’m going to a nightclub, it’s rubbish, the atmosphere is no good. And then you see under new management, Mark O’Haire, you give it another chance. And with Spurs, personnel-wise, you just don’t know what you’re getting from them.

Mark O’Haire:

No, I think it will be a work in progress. I have got high hopes for Tottenham to be quite competitive this year and potentially break into the top six. Whether they can do top four or not, I’m not sure, but I’m a big fan of Ange Postecoglou, I’ve followed his career quite closely actually since he took the Socceroos job of Australia, had very good success in Japan and then obviously with Celtic as well. He’s bold, he’s brash, he’s a real leader, he’s a real people person too, though he speaks of authority, he’s got great ideas on the game. His football is modern, he’s progressive, he’s exciting, entertaining, and I think we will see a much more enjoyable Tottenham team this time around rather than the sort of dour performances we saw under Conte and thereafter too. So I think he will be a breath of fresh air for Spurs but also for the Premier League as well, and I think there is hope for Tottenham at the end of the tunnel too.

But it’s going to be a work in progress and this is going to be a tricky opening day against a Brentford team who enjoyed their best league finish since 1938 last season. And it wasn’t a fluke either, if you look at the underlying metrics, Brentford were rating as a top 17, if you look at expected points, they were particularly strong at the Community Stadium, only lost twice at home and that was against Arsenal and Newcastle. Did the double over Man City, of course, yet they’re outsiders here at home to Tottenham, really, it’s almost like we’re sort of forgetting what happened last season.

And look, I’m well aware Ivan Toney is unavailable and that is a big blow, but I would trust the team like Brentford or even Brighton, really, to handle that kind of absence accordingly. And they are one of the smartest clubs in the division, they will have a plan in place. Actually, if we saw them last season, they coped reasonably well without Toney. He missed seven games, Brentford won five of those, and towards the end of the season [inaudible 00:27:52] and Bryan Mbeumo had a really strong and impressive partnership together.

Kevin Schade [inaudible 00:27:57] player from the Bundesliga, came over and contributed as well. So tactically their approach, they are versatile, they are physical, they are a nuisance to play against, and they are very difficult to beat as we saw last season, just nine Premier League defeats all season, which was a hell of an achievement for a club like Brentford. So yeah, I’m hopeful Spurs can kick on this season, but I also think Brentford will be there or thereabouts knocking on the door in the top half yet again despite no Ivan Toney.

So I’m kind of backing the team here just because they’re much, much further down in terms of progression, there’s continuity, there’s consistency there with Brentford, whereas Spurs, there’s still too many questions to be answered. We’re hearing today on Friday that Harry Kane, well, Bayern Munich have given a deadline for midnight, really, to see if they can do a deal with Spurs. And I think he’ll stay, but whether he’ll feature in this match is anyone’s guess really. But at the minute I’m more than happy to back Brentford +1/4 at home at -120 meaning we’ll make money as long as they avoid defeat at home to Spurs.

Flash:

Yeah. Let me just give a little bit of advice to the chat because I’ve got here Jonathan Nelson, here we go, Jonathan, this is basically what you should be doing because you say over 2 1/2 goals is -130. Let me tell you now, Brentford are not winning 3-nil, and Spurs are not going to win 3-nil. So if you are going to get cashed at over 2 1/2, do both teams to score an over around +115 because then you’re getting 45 cents better off. Honestly, I’ll eat my hat on day one if either of these sides score three. I thought the under 2 1/2 at +100, if there’s no Kane and there’s no Toney, then I don’t think we see three goals, and you’re getting plus money for under 2 1/2. Brad, just tell me why do we trust Tottenham? Can we trust Tottenham?

Brad Thomas:

No, absolutely not. How many times over the years has Tottenham led us down… But hey, maybe this is a new Tottenham team. Let’s remember they won some silverware in the preseason posing with pictures of their new silverware, they could be a changed team.

Flash:

Is this prime example of really a watch in brief because we want to see how Brentford get on without Ivan Toney, and we want to see what Spurs are like, potentially, without Kane, but potentially a new manager who’s going to put a rocket up their backside. Because to be fair, all the goals they scored last year, the creativity was like null and void, and they chucked it, they were not… and there’s another one, boys, are we going to see Richarlison actually score goals this year? Did he get 10 Mark O’Haire?

Mark O’Haire:

Well, do you know what? I’ve seen people suggest he could be a decent play right now for a top goalscorer because if Harry Kane does leave, there is a void there in the frontline because there’s another interesting aspect as well. There’s an Asian cup mid-season too, so Son will be missing for that. So suddenly there is an opportunity for Richarlison to be the main man throughout the whole campaign. So I wouldn’t write him off, he’s obviously better than what we saw last season, but still a lot to prove.

And just on the Harry Kane topic and on this match in particular, if Kane is to go, the only way that Brentford +1/4 price is going to go, is down. So they’re not going to be bigger. That price isn’t going to drift if Harry Kane stays. The price right now is assuming Harry Kane is playing for Tottenham next weekend, and we don’t know if he’s going to play. So the only option here is to back Brentford now because if that transfer does start to kick into gear on Saturday over the weekend and into Monday, then Spurs will start to drift.

Flash:

Yeah, watch him brief. Caveat, here we go. That’s the caveat. But someone has obviously got an official pick, so let’s see who. Yeah, Mark O’Haire has gone with a home side +0.25. New prices at BetUS, I’m going to have to get my head right round them. Brentford +0.25 -120, means if it’s a draw you win half your bet. None of this losing half a bet, we win half a bet.

Let’s go on to the biggest game in Europe. I don’t care. Let’s go. Chelsea hosting Liverpool. Chelsea, awful last year. Liverpool not really as bad as Chelsea but still not as good as you’d expect Liverpool. So we’ve got Chelsea opening day at home +188. Liverpool away from home at +138. We’ve got to look straight away at the draw at +240. And the under over, and heavily juiced -137 for us to see three goals, so over 2 1/2 is at -137. Chelsea draw, no bet +109. Liverpool draw, no bet at -139.

Mark O’Haire, wow, I see goals because I see Chelsea absolutely going for it, but I also see Liverpool both teams scoring over, would you be happy with that?

Mark O’Haire:

Yeah, I mean it is a price thing, isn’t it? I would be happy with it but I think I’ve said all last seasons that I want BTTS and over 2 1/2 goals to be +100, really. We’re not going to get that in this game, it’s just slightly short, it’s -105, but that would be my nominated selection if I was to have one. In this game, it’s obviously a real humdinger to start the season with, I don’t expect either team to be anywhere near their best. Chelsea is still lacking massively in key areas after a big summer of turnover. The midfield appears particularly weakened, there’s no Nkunku, or it looks that way after an injury in pre-season. No Fofana either at center half.

So I’m not expecting Chelsea to be anywhere near the level we expect Chelsea to be at by come, let’s say, Christmas, for example. But I think a home game against Liverpool really will wet the appetite. Pochettino is the kind of coach who’ll be looking to make a mark here. So in that sense I think we will get a good footballing contest, that’s why I do like goals, I do expect goals. Obviously, it’s a price thing, I’m sure you guys will talk about the goals and the likelihood of them as well.

But in terms of the match itself, Chelsea won’t be ready to be at their best. I think there’s valid questions about Liverpool. Two, they’ve lost two big influential leaders and midfield men in Henderson and Fabinho. They’ve refreshed, they’ve remodeled, I do like the additions of Mac Allister and Szoboslai, intrigued to see Alexander-Arnold’s position here whether he’ll continue floating in from right back to play midfield when in possession. But it still might take a few weeks for Liverpool to find their own identity after the midfield overhaul.

Clearly they’d sort of overhauled the forward line in the last 12, 18 months as well, so they weren’t exactly impressive away from home last season, that’s why I wouldn’t be going anywhere near the sort of +138 quotes on Liverpool. Just four away wins against teams outside the bottom four last season. Just four clean sheets on their travels altogether. They were so incredibly erratic in terms of their performance from one week to another. Saying that, going forward, you’ve got Darwin, Gakpo, should be better after betting in Diaz and Jota are available as well. So plenty of firepower there, and I think from a Chelsea perspective having reached James and Ben Chilwell available together will make a huge difference to them going forward when building from the back as well.

So goals would be my preferred option. What I would say, and I’m definitely not a punter that takes a huge amount of interest in head-to-head records, but amazingly last season these two teams played out two nil-nil draws in the Premier League, making it four successive nil-nil draws across all competitions between the two. And eight of the last 10 between the two teams across all comps have gone under 2 1/2 goals as well. So as I say, I don’t take a huge amount of stock in head-to-head records, particularly when managers have changed and players have changed, but I thought it was an interesting one worth highlighting.

Flash:

Yeah, midseason I’d be saying to you unders nil-nil, again, let’s go with it, draw halftime. But now I’m thinking to myself, Brad, I start this game at 2-2, so listen, it’s one of those, I think one of them definitely scores two. And over 1 1/2 team total is a plus money for both, so you get a push, worst case scenario, if it’s Liverpool, Liverpool +105 to score twice, Chelsea +130 to score twice. I think that both could score twice here.

Brad Thomas:

Yeah, I think both could score twice here. We do bring in Pochettino, he’s going to play on the front field. He’s going to play high-pressing attacking football, which is going to be great. Why? Because Liverpool away from Anfield were dreadful last season, they conceded 1.58 goals per contest, which was the highest they’ve conceded against Anfield in the past five seasons, it was not good. And a lot of that can be due to Trent Alexander-Arnold getting out of position when he goes forward and not coming back. Virgil van Dijk being a shell of himself. I hate to say that because he still plays at such a high level, but his highest level is gone, he’s had two major injuries, two major surgeries in his career, and you can tell that level is dropping off. He was one of, I’d say, top five players, maybe, in this league, now his rating had him closer to the 47th best player, which is not a standard you want when you’re at Liverpool here.

And yes, no Fofana for Chelsea. I am sad Nkunku did get a knee injury, but they do still have enough attacking prowess to at least score one or two on Liverpool. I was really flirting with the both teams to score line, but it was out of my playable range. I think it was -167. But there’s goals here. This game should be fun. And like Mike O’Haire said, I don’t rate the head-to-head records, those past games too much, especially when not only did Chelsea get a new manager this year, this will be, what, their fifth manager over the course of 365 days. They are going to be totally different tactically than they were in either of those fixtures, so go ahead and put me down for both teams to score in over 2 1/2 goals.

Flash:

Yeah, Mitch makes a good point though, let’s have a little look and see who the referee is because this could be a game where the timing may be a little bit off so we might see yellow cards. But Liverpool only play on the front foot, so listen, the amount of games they were involved in where both teams scored and the over, Mark O’Haire says we want to be closer to the +100, but both teams to score twice looks like a possibility for me. I’m liking Darwin Nunez scoring-

Brad Thomas:

Oh, yes.

Flash:

Again, I just see Liverpool scoring goals week in, week out this year, whether they keep them at the back is another question. Let’s have a little look at the official picks because this is an unbelievable game for week one. Darwin Nunez, anytime scorer, not got the price yet. I don’t care what the price is, I’m expecting it to be anytime scorer around what? +180, Mark O’Haire, would you expect that? Maybe +200?

Mark O’Haire:

Yeah, yeah, probably. I’m surprised there’s no prices just yet. I can try and find you one if you want.

Flash:

Good and just well, yeah, you can just throw it in, I’m not going to change my bet. Both teams to score and over to a -105, I think that’s an absolute shoe in, well done, Brad, I’m going to put that on your record early, early doors, and if not I’ll have a little bit of egg on my face. But Darwin Nunez anytime scorer. Any sign Mark O’Haire?

Mark O’Haire:

No.

Flash:

So you’re not finding me nothing, are you? Okay, let’s move on to a game where I think my boys… Listen, I think this is the game where you’re going to be cashing, lads, and if we have a good weekend, I will be following you in. It’s Manchester United versus Wolves, different ambitions for these two. Man United looking to really put pressure on the top two or three and then -270. Wolves at +700 When we have a home side at -270, we’ve then got to look at the handicap. And -1 1/2 is at -108. We’ve not got team totals at the moment, but if you said to me this was Man United to win and under 3 1/2, I think that’s probably the way you’d want to go, Brad.

Brad Thomas:

This match was so fun to look at because I say it’s not like in baseball you can just bet basically on numbers. In football you can’t really do that every single game, but this is a match where if you just look at the numbers, you have to take a bet in this one. I went ahead and went Manchester United to win in under 4 1/2 goals at -140. That’s my biggest bet of the weekend. I also took to win in under 3 1/2 goals for plus money [inaudible 00:40:03].

Flash:

-125 it is.

Brad Thomas:

Okay, -125, that’s even better.

Flash:

Yeah, it is.

Brad Thomas:

Yeah, let’s talk about the pricing of this first. So United set at -270 on the money line. The under is set at -123 for three goals. Seemingly thinking that United wins and it stays under. Okay, so now let’s look at what United did last season. Last season they had the fourth-best expected goal differential per 90 at home last season. They’re winners of 15 of the 19 matches that they played. Of those 19 matches, only one of those matches reached five goals and that was their second home match of the season where they won four to one.

This is against a Wolves side who failed to create last season, did nothing in the transfer window this off season to suggest that they’re going to get better coming forward. They failed to get enough in the final third, their opposing third, only scoring what 0.63 goals per match. This is going to be one of those matches where you’re going to be waiting, I believe, for a while for that United opener, and then they just clamp down, and Wolves struggle to convert here. I have this 1-nil, 2-nil. Maybe United gets sloppy in the back and we see a 2-1. But I’m really hard-pressed to find three or even… yeah, I’m really hard-pressed to find three goals in this match.

Flash:

Wolves don’t win the game, I know that Mark O’Haire.

Brad Thomas:

Absolutely.

Flash:

Man United to win in under 3 1/2, +120. Man United to win in under 4 1/2, -125. Mark O’Haire, this is one of them games where we look back and go, “Yeah, we had to go that way.” I don’t see any slipups here to be honest. And this is a Monday night game as well.

Mark O’Haire:

Yeah, there’s not a huge amount I can really add to what Brad’s already done because I’m on the same bet of Man United to win in under 4 1/2-

Flash:

What about anytime goalscorers? Are we going to go Rashford?

Mark O’Haire:

You could do it. It’s not a market I’ve often had too much. I don’t tend to go towards the obvious candidates in the anytime goalscorer because they’d already be factored in by the bookmakers. So I’d wait to see the team sheets because I’m intrigued to see if Rasmus Hojlund features, for example, Mason Mount as well. But I think with Man United, what we saw last season was ten Hag, he had to temper his own style of total football to try and get the best out of the big club. It’s quite a monstrous job trying to rid the dead wood of that team, change the culture of the club, change the mindset, and adapt to his own style as well.

And I think United were quite ruthless in terms of what they achieved, particularly at Old Trafford, as Brad pointed out. And if you look at their record outside of the top six, they won 12 or 14 games, drew two, they lost none, considered just five goals, they were flat track bullies. And they did so in kind of just… they didn’t demolish teams, they just did it quite kind of like a routine, just go out and win 1-nil, 2-nil, 3-nil, 2-1, that kind of thing.

But can Wolves contribute to this? I find it hard to believe they were the lowest scorers in the league. There’s a horrible mood going around Wolves right now as well. FFP is biting, there are financial concerns, there are off-field issues relating to the ownership. So much so that Lopetegui has threatened to leave the club before the start of the season because he’s not getting the targets he wanted, his best player was sold in the summer. Collins and Jimenez have also gone, so the squad is getting thinner and thinner. He’s not getting the upgrades he wants or were promised. And Wolves last season away from home were terrible. They won twice, they lost 12 times. Their only wins came at bottom four teams, and they picked up one point from eight trips to the top eight.

So United beat them home in away without conceding last season, I suspect they’ll do something similar here. But getting the under 4 1/2 goals on side as well is really strong because 22 of Man United’s 23 league wins last season featured under 4 1/2 goals. The only one that didn’t is the match that Brad mentioned right at the start of the season when ten Hag was just getting his ducks in a row really. So yeah, that’s the way I play it, it’s my best bet in the Premier League this week by a mile. So much so I was almost tempted to add a little asterisk to make it nap time but it’s week one, so I’ll reserve it for now.

Flash:

I wrote four asterisks, and went, “Not in week one,” which is a bit strange if you join us a little bit later on I’m going to be doing the La Liga week one show, and there will be an asterisk in that, so a little bit contradictory from myself there. But yeah, Man United win this game. I’m not sure Wolves score, but again can you trust that Man United back line. I just don’t know if Wolves are going to be able to create. Man United win to nil is a one way. But Man United at under 3 1/2 are plus money, or Man United and under 4 1/2 also. I’m going to try and do some more anytime goalscorers this year, and Rashford will definitely be the one.

Let’s have a little look at the official Soccer picks because Manchester United, they beat Wolves, and then we’ve got to find how are we’re going to get paid. Man United under 4 1/2. -125. It’s for both of them, and it’s for me as well. I just didn’t want to have too many bets in week one. But if there’s anybody in the chat actually believe that that’s not the way to go. Now, United under 3 1/2 goals, and United to have most corners. Don’t start complicating it Manchester in red, but we’re happy with Man United getting off to a winning start, and if they get off to a winning start and Wolves don’t score, that -125 is going to be in the bank.

Right, now’s the time for your Q&A for any of the games we’ve left out. But before we do that, I’d like to ask you to subscribe, and also ring the bell, which means we’ll notify you. And you’ve got Premier League, La Liga, then Serie A, and Bundesliga will join us in a couple of weeks, then Champions League and Europa League. Then in January we have the AFCON. But the AFCON, the African Nations, will be going on at the same time. Listen, the other leagues don’t stop. Then in February we start with the MLS, that will then come on board. And if that’s not enough, we’ve got Copa America next year, which some are saying may well be Messi’s last tournament. And then we’ve got the European Championships.

So these boys are going to be so, so busy, but it means that we’re going to be making money right, left, and center. If you like all your odds and your props, and as you’ve seen already, we’ve already improved them, then type in betustv.com/odds. All right, first question up, pinball spot, do Arsenal easily beat Forest? Mark O’Haire, I’m going to come to you first with this one. I like Arsenal team total over 2 1/2.

Mark O’Haire:

Yeah, they should beat Forest quite comfortably. We talked many times last season about Arsenal, not just under Mikel Arteta, but under previous head coaches as well, being ruthless, really, against bottom half teams at the Emirates. It is week one, there is no Gabriel Jesus, who’s injured, which is a bit of a blow, so that’s something to bear in mind. But yeah, Arsenal have been looking quite slick in preseason. I know the game against Monaco wasn’t quite recently but even still Forest are not in a good place at the minute, their squad is looking quite thin and threadbare. There’s talk of ructions behind the scenes again about transfer targets not being met, so this might be a great opportunity to play them.

And as we know, Forest were absolutely atrocious away from the City Ground last season too, so it’s a pretty difficult opening day for them. But talk about anytime goalscorers, there might be an opportunity there with Arsenal, no Jesus, so it does open the market up for someone else. If Trossard or Havertz starts up front, that might be a nice value play there.

Flash:

Yeah, or Saka. Listen, all of them, Martinelli. I see I’m going to play this quite often this season. Brad, I’m liking Arsenal over 2 1/2 team total because they play on the front foot, but also I like Arsenal to win and both teams to score, but I’m not so sure that Forest actually contribute here.

Brad Thomas:

Yeah, I don’t know, that’s probably not a market I’d get interested in. Forest have enough talent to score, Arsenal could get complacent if they start running it up, but it also could be one of those matches where it’s week one, match day one, at the Emirates, Arsenal want to put on a good show for their home crowd, if they get up 4-nil, we could see Forest just fall back and not get anything out of this match, not even get anything to get excited about, not come forward. Arsenal just shuts them down.

I do think that you could take a pretty interesting angle here. I think Saka’s going to get on the score sheet here. He’s looked better recently. He didn’t look like more of a goalscorer towards the end of the season last year, but in this preseason buildups, he’s looked a lot better. Also, another interesting angle, a shot on target with his left foot, he’s primarily a left foot shooter [inaudible 00:48:38].

Flash:

How many spades did you get through to dig that deep? Oh my god. A shot with your left foot. Stop that behavior. I’m in a court of law now, I’m like, please, jury, don’t even think about that last comment please. But I’ll stay with you because do Brighton score twice against Luton?

Brad Thomas:

Yeah, they score twice against Luton at home. Oh, man. I do think that Luton are going to try to play 10 behind the ball as best they possibly can this entire match, but Brighton are just going to be way too much. This also could be one of those matches that comes into the break nil-nil, and it just still explodes late just because of how much pressure, how many shots. We have to imagine what we’re going to say, eight shots on target for Brighton in this match is probably where I’m sitting around. Just have to convert two of those, so yeah, I think they score twice.

Flash:

Okay, Mark O’Haire, with the last one, Jack Simpson says, “Bournemouth money line versus West Ham.” I just thought that was both teams to score over 2-1.

Mark O’Haire:

Tricky game. But yeah, looking at the prices, Bournemouth outsiders at home to West Ham, well I talked about West Ham being a potential long shot for relegation on the preview show, this might be a good time to play them because Bournemouth, I believe, have had an upgrade in the managerial hot seats with Iraola coming into the club, they’ve made some smart signings, they look like a team who know what they’re doing off the field, know the direction of travel they’re going in.

And the rumors surrounding West Ham, we were talking on Friday, and the most backed manager in the sack race has been David Moyes all this week, so that kind of goes to show where West Ham are at right now off the field, and there’s a lot of question marks surrounding them right now, so it might be a good time to play them. If I was to play them, probably wouldn’t take the money line, just me being pragmatic, I’d take the draw no bet or the pick them just for a bit more of get the draw on side as well. But yeah, I think the Cherries will do quite well this season and surprise a few people.

Flash:

Yeah, I did actually have Bournemouth going down and I had to rub it out. Under new management, new players come in, and again, they always find a way. And I think there’s so many bad sides. I thought Mitrovic might’ve been a good target for West Ham. West Ham still got all that money and have not spent it. Now, would that turn out to be the wise choice? Because remember they have got a deep, deep season this year, and they’re going to need plenty bodies in the building.

Okay. Really, really looking forward to week one. I wish everybody loads of luck. Let’s have a little look at the best bets please. Mark has gone for Brentford +0.25 at -120, and Man United under 4 1/2 at -125. Brad Newcastle/Villa over 2 1/2, at -128. Chelsea/Liverpool, both teams are scoring over 2 1/2 at -105, like that a lot, Brad. Man United at under 4 1/2 at -125. Every man and his dog is going to be wanting on this one, we see the old 5-0. Man City win to nil on the Friday night opener at +100. Got that, being 1-nil, 2-nil to City. Fulham +0.25 away at Everton at -111. And Chelsea, Liverpool, I’m going with Darwin Nunez to score anytime, I think he has a great season this year, and I think all his hard work will deserve plenty, plenty goals.

But good luck to everybody in the chat. Remember we’ve got La Liga coming up as well for week one, then Serie A, and Bundesliga will join us in a couple of weeks. But from Mark O’Haire, from Brad Thomas, from myself, welcome back to the Premier League 2023/24 season. Let’s cash together. You take care.