Introducer:
Hi, welcome to another Premier League show. Man United has gone four games without a victory in the league, including a defeat to Aston Villa. This is a do or die game for the [red 00:00:14] United, as they have to visit a Spurs side that is one point ahead of them in the table. The question on everyone’s lips is, will Ole Gunnar Solskjaer still be in charge come the weekend? We’ll find out this week, but in the meantime, let’s hear what Flash and Stinch have in store for us in this new edition of Bet US Premier League show for Matchday 10.
Flash:
Welcome to Bet US, I’m Flash and this is the Premier League and it’s Matchday 10. Now we are America’s favorite sportsbook, so let’s give you a little bit, and then I’ve got something else to give as well. So first of all, go over to BetUS.com and you get a sign up bonus of 125%, up to $2,500, and all you’ve got to do is put in a promo code of EPL2021. So EPL2021, is your promo code, that’ll get you up to $2,500, which equates to 125% sign up bonus. Please, if this is your first time then subscribe.
Flash:
Also, press the bell, press the bell means that you’ll never miss any content again, and this is your channel, Bet US Official, you’ve got everything you need. You’ve got soccer, you’ve got NHL, MBA is going bonkers, obviously NFL, and NCAAF, and then it’ll be NCAAB before you know it. So you’ve got everything, this is your one stop shop for every single sport that… Well, sit back, biscuits, cup of tea.
Flash:
Also, as you can see, there’s only myself and there’s Mark Stinchcombe, which today will be called Mark, because the award winning Mark O’Haire and his good lady have just had a new arrival, their first, so a massive congratulations from everyone on this show and everyone at Bet US. We look forward to seeing him again soon, which will be Champions League on Monday, so no rest for the wicked. Enjoy and he’ll plenty tips because them kids, they do not come cheap.
Flash:
So with me today is obviously, the digger of all value, he’s a European odds compiler, Mark Stinchcombe, so, Stinch, I’m going to call you Stinch, all right? I cannot bring myself to call you Mark, because otherwise that throws me for the next show. How are you, mate?
Stinch:
Cheers, Flash. On top of the world after that Liverpool victory at Old Trafford last week.
Flash:
Oh, monstrous. I couldn’t believe that they were +125 because obviously I’ve been going on for the last six weeks saying, for me, they’re the best club side in the world at the moment, and they definitely look like they were 18 months ago.
Stinch:
Yeah, made a mockery of those quotes in the end. I think, as I said, if it wasn’t the Manchester v Liverpool rivalry, then I would have joined you because you’ve been watching Man United in the Champions League, in the Premier League, on week to week basis, they’re just so disjointed, aren’t they? Whereas Liverpool…
Flash:
That’s the word.
Stinch:
Are complete opposite, an absolute machine, and Mo Salah, arguably the best player in the world at the moment. So, it was a mismatch, wasn’t it?
Flash:
Yeah, it was, and what about Jordan Henderson, thinking he was Pirlo during the game? That’s what happens when your confidence tank is at the heights that the Liverpool boys are at the moment. Bending, right foot, outside of the right foot, 20, 30 yard pass along the ground, basically, into a player’s path. He’s never played one of them before, but because things are going so well, listen, Liverpool, they could hit five, Chelsea, they hit seven, and Man City hit four away from home.
Flash:
Now, before we start kicking into these games, because there’s only me and Stinch, get yourselves in the chat because we’re going to have a longer Q and A today, maybe we’ll cover some games that we’ve not actually got official picks on, but we’ll give you the reasons why because there’s plenty, plenty meat on the bone. I’ll tell you what, Stinch, it looks like there’s plenty value.
Flash:
Before we go to that, let’s have a little look at the records, please, because the records are healthy and they’ll have been even more healthier if VAR had got involved, because I lost two units on a 93rd minute penalty at Elland Road, Leeds. Also, I had Brighton not to score and they get a penalty, but there was an offside, but VAR didn’t want to. So VAR comes and kills me, and then it comes and kills me.
Flash:
So listen, we’re nearly five units in profit, we’ve got to be happy there. Stinch going great at 4.5, that is 4.5, Stinch, I’ve not robbed you of any profits?
Stinch:
No, no, looks all good to me. You haven’t robbed me of, it’s just those pushes, those two goal pushes that I think should’ve, one or two of them should at least come in, so I’m still being greedy.
Flash:
Yeah, but no, but that’s exactly why you did them, because you said, “it’s a free shot, it’s a free shot”, and you cannot see them in under two, so you go over, there’ll be at least two and there was every time. You’ve not lost one of them, that’s the biggest one, isn’t it?
Stinch:
No, and have you seen the last few weeks, we haven’t had any goal lines at two? So, had to try and take it while it was still there, and now we’re looking elsewhere now to try and find another edge that we can take advantage of.
Flash:
No, I agree, I agree. I think there’s an edge at our first game as well, because our first game is at the King Power stadium, I nearly said the Walker stadium, I nearly said Filbert Street, but it is the King Power, it is Leicester versus Arsenal.
Flash:
Stinch, it looks like there’re goals here. Leicester are scoring and look like scoring every time they go forward. Cannot trust this Arsenal side, take the name out of this and Leicester should be massive favorites.
Stinch:
Yeah, I thought Leicester should be deservedly a bit shorter in this match. I think, probably, it just comes down to the fact that Arsenal have got, I was going to say a couple of world class players, maybe not quite that anymore, maybe the sort of level below, Aubameyang and Lacazette that are able to score something out of nothing. You’re absolutely right, I do think Leicester are a much, much better team than Arsenal. I mean, Arsenal won this game 3-1 in April, but I think that just encapsulates the fact that they do have these players that can score something out of nothing.
Stinch:
Just sometimes, as we know, Leicester, they have frailties at the back because of the style of football they play. Arsenal, I don’t think you can trust them at all, whether you want to back them to win, whether you want to back them to lose. I think it’s really difficult to know what Arsenal turns up. For example, I think they were, they were excellent against Tottenham in that first half about a month ago now, and then I watched them against Crystal Palace, a Crystal Palace team that both me and Mark have got reservations about, and Crystal Palace were excellent and should’ve won really. Arsenal needed a 93rd minute equalizer just to rescue a point, and if they had lost that, question marks over Arteta’s job again.
Stinch:
So, I think Arsenal massively lack a long term plan, and yeah, I’m a big fan of all the exciting young attacking players that Leicester have got.
Flash:
Yeah, and the other thing with Leicester now is they’re starting to get a deeper squad, the players are coming back, but they’re scoring goals. In whatever competition they play, they are scoring goals. Now it’s not just on Jamie Vardy, Maddison, he chips in. You’ve obviously got the new lad, Daka, you’ve got Iheanacho, there’s so many ways that they can score.
Flash:
Now, they won 2-1 last week, away at Brentford, but they were under the kosh and they defended really well. The problem you’ve got if you’re going against Leicester, is that you can be attacking them, but they’re almost happier to spring you from being under the kosh and defending on the edge of their own box.
Flash:
Let’s have a little look at the numbers, because I think this is giving us an opportunity, I really do. I mean, I look at the home side, they were +150 yesterday, Stinch, today, they’re +145, moneyline at +185. Do you know that there’s a stat that Arsenal hardly ever win when they’re at plus money?
Stinch:
Yeah, it doesn’t surprise me to be honest, because I think you’ve mentioned it before, the Premier League is quite efficient and if it means Arsenal at plus money, it means obviously they’re not heavy favorites. It’s a long, long time now since Arsenal have been, I’d probably say, arguably the lowest in the whole Premier League, since we’ve been going, since ’92, that Arsenal have been at, this is probably the worst Arsenal have ever been, in terms of points per game, regularly…
Stinch:
Before we used to always say, “Arsenal are a top four team”, not even a top six team now. They haven’t even made it into Europe this season. I’ve got an Arsenal friend and I play football with him on a Thursday, and I used to wind him up with, “who are Arsenal playing tonight in Europa League?”, and now I continue to wind him up because they haven’t got a game at all. They weren’t even good enough to finish in the top six, top seven.
Stinch:
So, yeah, they fell off a cliff massively, and again, I think it comes back to the long term plan of the owner, Mikel Arteta’s got no managerial experience, so he’s learning on the job, very similar to Solskjaer. They’re very, very hit and miss because they’ve still got these very, very good players that can score out of nowhere and because football’s a low scoring game, it can make… then there’s a lot of results bias, essentially.
Stinch:
I’m not surprised that Leicester are favorites, arguably it should be shorter. Jamie Vardy, I believe has been confirmed fit, because I think he was a bit of a doubt because he went off last weekend, so that’s great news…
Flash:
Well that’s not as much of a worry as it would’ve been seven or eight months ago, and you mentioned Arsenal going there and winning 3-1. Leicester were in the doldrums, Leicester’s foot came off that pedal, they were concentrating on other things. In the league, they were disjointed and it was almost like, “okay, let’s go through the motions”. Now, all of a sudden, they’ve got players like Vardy who are fighting for their place, I know that’s a bit far fetched, but they’ve actually got players that are ready to come in and perform.
Stinch:
Yeah, I’m not sure why the likes of Iheanacho and Daka weren’t getting picked at the start of season. I don’t know if it was a fitness thing, whether for example, Daka, he wasn’t… because he’s a new signing, he hasn’t got himself into the flow or the rhythm of the team, or how Rogers wants him to play, but we saw in Europe, he picked him and he scored four. That’s the sort of quality we’re talking about, so honestly, Leicester, going forward, are so exciting.
Stinch:
I think, they are a little bit relentless sometimes, when they go attack after attack, so I do think that leaves them vulnerable in defense, and we’ve mentioned a lot about Soyuncu and Vestergaard. Jonny Evans is back fit now, but how, after being out for a while, I don’t think he’s going to be at an optimum level. There’s still, Amartey’s still playing in defense, who’s a midfielder. So rinse and repeat for me, Flash, here, I’m going to go for the overs, -120 over 2.5. Honestly think…
Flash:
Safe.
Stinch:
I think in Leicester’s games, the line should be three. Honestly, I don’t know why it’s at 2.5, I think there’s a bit of reluctance from the market to accept this sort of basketball games that Leicester are producing, because that is essentially what’s happening.
Flash:
That’s what they want though, isn’t it? I mean, why do teams do that?
Stinch:
Yeah, I mean, it’s great to watch, I’m not sure Rogers is trying to go down this route of, we’ll outscore you, sort of Kevin Keegan style. I think he would like his team to have a little bit more control, but I think that probably comes with experience, Leicester have got a lot of young, inexperienced players, I would say. I know they’ve got the likes of Schmeichel, Vardy, Evans, but I think that’s… the likes of Tielemans and Iheanacho, Daka, Harvey Barnes, they’re all still a bit young. So I think they’re evolving over time, and I think Leicester, they are a team with a long term plan and will be fine, honestly.
Stinch:
You’ve mentioned them strengthening the squad, which is obviously what has cost them the last couple of seasons. So, given the fact that we’re happy to accept that Liverpool, Man City, and Chelsea are probably the three teams that are going to definitely finish top three, that fourth position, Leicester have definitely got to have their eye on that, haven’t they? Probably along with West Ham, West Ham and Leicester are probably those two, in terms of teams, not talking individuals because Spurs and Man United have got better players, but I think we’re happy to accept that the likes of Leicester are actually better teams.
Stinch:
So, yeah, over 2.5 goals. I think the beauty of this bet is, I’ve said it before, Leicester can win games 3-0, they can lose games 3-0, so you’re not reliant on both teams needing to contribute which is, I think, is why it’s safer than going for a team total bet. 19 of Leicester’s…
Flash:
You’ve got to go for Leicester, surely, to score twice at +120, Arsenal cannot defend. This is a basketball game, I think you’re right in going over 2.5, but I’m also thinking Leicester are at +145, were +150, that tells you money’s coming in for them. I can see Magnus in the chat, getting a little bit impatient. Cool your jets, Magnus, put your feet up, enjoy. Wrap another biscuit. I like the +120, let’s have a little look at the official picks though, because I think I’ve found value, if you don’t like it, then have a little chat. Type something, because Leicester on over 2.5, is at +275, I see them winning 2-1, 3-1, maybe even 3-0 if Arsenal have a bad day, but over 2.5 at -120 looks like a pretty safe bet, Stinch.
Flash:
Okay, let’s move on, because this is another game we’re off to, just outside North London, Hertfordshire. It’s Watford versus Southampton. Southampton, they huffed and they puffed last week, but Watford went to Merseyside and scored five, Stinch. I mean, no one, if you said Watford were going to score two, the men in white coats would’ve come and you’d have been in a padded cell.
Stinch:
Yeah, definitely, especially against a Rafa Benitez side, who we associate with being well organized, I mean, they went to Old Trafford, didn’t they? Everton only conceded one goal, they played West Ham, I think, the week before and they only conceded one goal to a very good West Ham team. Yeah, wow, I mean, that’s why we love football, isn’t it? West Brom went to Chelsea last season and scored five out of nowhere, similar sort of thing from Watford there.
Stinch:
I think they fully deserved to score, to score at least four, to be honest, in terms of the chances they created. They’re all very high level opportunities, not sort of pot shots from a distance in all goalkeeper areas or that sort of thing, they were high quality chances, so all credit really to Ranieri, to bounce back from a 5-0 defeat in his opening game.
Flash:
Now, is the pressure on, or is it now they’re looking forward to coming back to Vicarage Road and maybe kicking on again? Southampton have got a good record here, but Southampton are playing well, but they’re not scoring goals, so Watford have a real opportunity and a rare, rare opportunity to put back to back wins. When we look at these numbers, and I need to look at the numbers now because I cannot understand how a team that have only won once are favorites.
Flash:
Watford have just scored five, Southampton are struggling to score two in any game, and the home side are +220. So it’s almost like, +125 for draw no bet for the home side, do we see both teams to score an over? So then, the over 2.5 at -115, would that be the way?
Stinch:
I think we had this sort of conversation regarding Southampton last week, didn’t we? We wanted to back unders in Southampton, Burnley, but I was mentioning about the defenses and we saw that it went 2-2, I just, I can’t trust Southampton to score, and I can’t trust them not to concede. I think, going back to what you said originally, Southampton odds are far too short, aren’t they? They’ve won one game all season, against a depleted Leeds team, let’s not make no bones about it.
Stinch:
Watford have won three matches, I mean, I know that’s not the logic used to price up football games, but let’s just look at the plain facts, that Watford have won three games, Southampton have won one. I think confidence plays a big part in this sort of thing, and I think Watford will be massively full of confidence, whereas Southampton haven’t got a reliable goal scorer, haven’t they? Just over a longer spread of games, Southampton have failed to win their last nine away games in the Premier League, it’s one win in 17 and that came against a poor Sheffield United team. The Saints have conceded at least two goals in 12 of the last 15 trips away. So anything pro-Watford is the bet here for me, easy. It’s not a difficult decision at all.
Flash:
No, I mean, you’ve got moneyline at +220, you’ve got the pick’em at +125. I mean, I do see both teams scoring, so maybe both teams will score an over, I’m not worried about who gets the winner. Team totals, I mean, Watford to score twice at +165 looks like a way to go. I mean, I cannot believe that Southampton are +110 to score twice, that really does baffle me because they’re a big athletic side, Watford.
Flash:
I think this’ll be a nice football match, I think there’ll be plenty chances, and I’m looking forward to seeing how Watford bounce back, I say bounce back on the back of scoring five because sometimes that’s a letdown spot. In other sports, you’re wary of a team coming back home after scoring five because it’s almost like, everything went their way and it’s back down to reality. For me, I’ve got to be looking towards Watford.
Flash:
Only if we look towards the official picks, you’ll see, that I just didn’t have the heart to press the button, I had to pass it, Stinch. You’ve gone Watford +0.25 at -120, which means what?
Stinch:
Yep, so that’s half my bet on Watford draw no bet, and half my bet on Watford to win. So if it finishes in a draw, half my stake, sorry, so half my bet on Watford…
Flash:
You win half stake, yeah?
Stinch:
Yep, so it’s half my bet on Watford to avoid defeat, and half my bet on Watford draw no bet. So if it finishes in a draw, half my stake will win, and obviously, Watford win, I get a full payout, and yeah, the only way the bet loses is if Southampton win the game. So, slightly different to the pick’em, so the pick’em obviously, if it finishes in a draw, we don’t make any profit, so I’m taking a slightly lower price to ensure I get, still get paid a little bit of money by being right if Southampton don’t win.
Flash:
Yeah, I mean, there’s going to be a day when you find a way of getting a bit of money even when you’re wrong. Let’s move on to game three, but we like that, Stinch, we like that. We’re going to go to the restaurant that is Norwich versus Leeds, and when I say restaurant, because there’s only one thing on the menu normally that Stinch is interested in, he goes to the chef of Norwich and says, “what is the odds on Norwich not to score?” Are we going there again, Stinch?
Stinch:
Yeah, I think it makes complete sense, I mean, actually, the line for Norwich is not set at 0.5, it’s set at 1.5, but it’s difficult, really, to come on and put up a bet, I think it’s minus… Bear with me two seconds, it’s 1.45, so what’s that in…
Flash:
-210? -215?
Stinch:
Yes. I mean, I think that’s a great bet, maybe we want to put it in a parlay, Flash? Maybe there’s something you want to add for this week, because we haven’t done one for the Premier League yet and to be fair, I mean, we don’t see Norwich scoring one goal so, surely Norwich scoring two, not to score two, is just an absolute banker.
Flash:
Okay, so that’s what? -215, I made that. Okay, Norwich not to score, but let’s look at the game because we’ve got Leeds, that we need to have. If we’re going to go with Leeds, and we’re going to go against Norwich, we need certain personnel to be back and playing, i.e., we need Phillips, we need Bamford, we need that spine to be back because the thing is with Leeds at the moment, they’ve been neat and tidy, but never really carrying a threat.
Flash:
Last week against Wolves, Wolves were cruising, and yeah, so everyone knows I had Wolves until the 94th minute at +205. It was the subs, the youth, the energy that came on. I’m wondering if it’s just like a glorified, I don’t know, top of the Championship type game, so listen, there’s going to be chances at both ends.
Stinch:
Yeah, you mentioned about personnel, I am a big Bamford fan and he obviously makes a huge difference to Leeds in terms of goals, but I think arguably just as important is Kalvin Phillips, he was back on the bench last week, he didn’t come on but if he’s fit enough to make the bench, another weeks worth of training, I would like to think he’ll start in this game. For me to be happy to get with Leeds in some form, they’ve got Jack Harrison back on the wing, Raphinha was fit enough to play after he had to be substituted early in the previous game.
Stinch:
Rodrigo up front, Dan James, Mateusz Klich in midfield as well. So actually, as long as Kalvin Phillips plays, I’m happy to get with Leeds against the worst team in the league.
Flash:
Yeah, because they’ve got enough, haven’t they? I think you’re right. I think if Phillips plays, he’s your quarterback, so he’s the one that’s going to hold everything together, he sees danger, he breaks it up and he springs. I think Bamford’s not so much as a, I mean, David [Geckel 00:21:27] in the chat’s saying, “Bamford’s out, okay”. So he’s got the inside track or he’s having a massive guess up, okay, which is always dangerous when you’re betting.
Flash:
You just named them players there, like Rodrigo, like James, like Raphinha. They have got creativity in abundance against the Norwich side, who shipped seven last week. Let’s have a look, see if there’s any numbers that [inaudible 00:21:52] can give us a bit of Leeds.
Flash:
I mean, Leeds are +110. That’s come in as well, because I know I saw, I think, +120 a couple of days ago. Team total, well they’re saying that Leeds are going to score twice at -110, do we go, is it overs here? Or is it like… oh, it’s 220, -220, the under 1.5, so yeah, we’ll, you want to put that in a pile, hey? I’ll have to go sniffing for another one.
Stinch:
Yeah, I, honestly, there’s so many in here I like because of the fact that the, basically, Norwich, they’re expected goals in this game, bearing in mind they’ve only scored two in nine games in the season, for some reason, is inflated. Every week, we’ve been discussing Norwich line as being 0.5, and yet it’s set at 1.5 because people think that Leeds don’t, can’t do defending, essentially, but Norwich can’t attack. They are terrible at even trying to attack.
Stinch:
They haven’t scored in 16 of their last 19 Premier League games. They’re averaging the fewest shots per game, they’re averaging the fewest shots on target. They’re averaging the fewest shots in the box. Majority of the shots, bearing in mind they’re not taking any to begin with, are coming from outside the area. Their confidence is just absolutely shot to bits, so I’m more than happy to get with Leeds.
Stinch:
The way I’ve gone about it without being able to back Norwich not to score, I’ve gone down the both teams to score no route, at +130. So, actually, what I’ve also got there, I feel like I’ve got on my side there is like a shock Norwich 1-0 win, for example, in case Leeds…
Flash:
Or the 0-0.
Stinch:
Yeah, in case Leeds can’t breach. So I don’t think it’s going to be a goal heavy game without, given the fact we haven’t got Bamford, and then I’ve also gone a bit greedy, because you mentioned that Leeds price at +110, if you throw in Leeds not to concede as well, that goes up by 300 to +, sorry, it goes up by 200 to +310. That’s absolutely enormous. Absolutely enormous. Getting Leeds from +110 to +310, just by saying they won’t concede as well.
Stinch:
Yeah, I’ve sort of a two pronged attack, but also I feel like taking that both teams score no gives me a little bit of security, in case, as you say, it is a 0-0 or Norwich grab a shock goal.
Flash:
Right, okay, so, listen, I’m loving the fact that I encourage people to start typing and having their say in the chat, but Magnus, unless you’ve got a stutter, you don’t need to type something five times, do you know what I mean? It’s either you’ve got your fingers like this, and it keeps pressing, or you have got a stutter. I read, I understand, and at the end, I will go through the games that you’ve asked for and give you reasons why we’ve not got picks on them, because we can’t have picks in all the games.
Flash:
If you have a look at this one though, and the official picks, because Leeds to score twice is -110. Well, in my book, if they score twice, they win, because we cannot see Norwich scoring one or two. So, instead of me getting -110 for them scoring twice, I get +110 for them potentially to win 1-0. So I’ve gone Leeds moneyline at +110, I think that away from home, they’re going to be too strong for Norwich. Now Stinch has gone for both teams to score no at +130, and Leeds to win 2-0 at a massive 310, so we love that. Leeds win 2-0 at +310.
Flash:
Now, the last game, before I go onto a no game, and we have got a spare, or an added, official pick, I’m going to go to Wolves versus Everton. Now, Wolves let me down last week against an Everton side who don’t normally let goals in, and then they let in five. This Wolves side are pushing it around, they’re a different side at home, Stinch. I just see that they’re going to score two or three against someone soon. Now, do we have, we have to be not short [term-ism 00:25:53], coming up against Everton, but when you look at Everton games, they went to Villa and they let in three in like nine minutes. Watford, they let in five, and I keep saying it because we cannot overemphasize that. What is going on? Is there a lack of leadership?
Flash:
So when something starts going like the house of cards, they go completely.
Stinch:
What, Everton?
Flash:
Well, obviously, yeah, they’ve let in five and threes and twos, even though they get results.
Stinch:
Yeah, I think actually you might have hit the nail on the head because Seamus Colman’s captain, isn’t he, and he had an absolute shocker last weekend. So, yeah, perhaps you’re right there. No Calvert-Lewin, I’m not sure if he’ll be back at the weekend, although I wouldn’t class him as a leader, at least he’s a focal point of the attack.
Stinch:
Yeah, I think, I’m not sure how much to read into that sort of shock defeat last week, I mean, Everton had started this season pretty well, hadn’t they? They were up in the sort of top six, top seven, but having said that, they did have one of the softest fixture lists, so maybe things are sort of swinging back round into how their season is going to go from here on in.
Stinch:
I was a bit disappointed with Wolves last weekend, they only managed eight shots, where, what we were describing…
Flash:
They scored too early, Stinch. They scored too early.
Stinch:
They sat back.
Flash:
They thought that they could just sit back, yeah, and they did have good chances or good situations, and they were wasteful. They sat further and further back, invited pressure, and then they get the penalty against them in the 94th minute. They were the better side, because Leeds weren’t really creating that much, but they thought they would. This is where I want to see Wolves go and get a second or a third when they’re on top and put a game to bed.
Flash:
They seem to be very patient.
Stinch:
It’s not really been in keeping with Wolves’ game so far this season, has it? They have been attacking a lot and that’s what the manager’s sort of DNA is, Bruno Lage, he is an attacking manager. Yeah, so maybe as I say, confidence plays a big part in football, doesn’t it? Some of the games this season, Wolves, especially their first three, remember they lost them all, all by a single goal, yet we all said that Wolves deserved to win them all.
Stinch:
So, maybe, he got himself into position where, once he took the lead, he thought defend and sort of protect it a little bit. I mean, the game away at Southampton, for example, Raul Jiminez didn’t score til late on, so they didn’t really have to think about defending for long periods of time. The Villa game, obviously they were 2-0 down, so they didn’t start attacking until that point.
Stinch:
Yeah, so maybe, maybe, sorry, Wolves need to remember that, as you say, 1-0, dangerous lead and you can’t afford to sit back in the Premier League unless maybe other than against Norwich because there aren’t that many bad teams in this league, especially this season. So, I’m interested to see whether you’re going to go with Wolves this weekend.
Flash:
Well, let’s have a little look at the numbers first and see what the numbers dictate, because I don’t blame anybody that looks at the bottom of the page and sees a draw at +235, because on paper, you’d say that these two are very, very well matched up. I mean, the moneyline for the home side at +120 definitely appeals. Everton are +240, you always get value on Everton away from home.
Flash:
You know what really sticks in my mind, Stinch, is that Everton let goals in very, very quickly. They can be on top in games, like they were at Villa Park, and in nine minutes, they found themselves from 0-0 to 3-0. Then I see Wolves who’ve made more chances, created more chances, just not taken them, than any other side in the Premier League and that’s inclusive of Man City, Chelsea, Liverpool.
Flash:
So I just see that Raul Jiminez and the other international players, or European players in midfield, are going to have too much for this Everton side because I think in Everton it’s all about, they need, they’re like flat track bullies. Remember, Southampton, they scored goals against them, everyone’s scored against Everton. Clean sheets are a rarity for them. I think Wolves score, Wolves win, I’m going to go with Wolves at +120. I wouldn’t put anyone off of the +155 for Wolves to get two. Remember, this is an Everton side that have let in double digits of goals, so +155 on Wolves to score two, I’m so tempted by that and I may just revisit it, so make sure that you follow us on BetUS_Official or BetUS_Soccer, because we all have our individual Twitter handles, so if you want just the soccer news, then make sure you follow because I might just add that Wolves over one and a half goals, team total, at +155 [inaudible 00:30:42] official picks.
Stinch:
Flash, sorry, I’ve just seen that…
Flash:
Go on, mate.
Stinch:
Calvert-Lewin and Doucoure and Yerry Mina are big, big injury doubts and that’s like the spine of their team. Doucoure’s evolved a little bit this season, he’s already picked up four assists, so he’s getting forward a lot more to support the strikers, and Richarlison only came on after an hour last week, so I don’t know how fit he is. Wolves are pretty fresh, Raul Jiminez back scoring, the South Korean Hwang, who’s a big prospect, looks like he’s fitted in immediately, he’s got three or four goals now.
Flash:
They’ve got a squad, Stinch, they’ve got a squad.
Stinch:
They haven’t got Europe to worry about, have they? So, yeah, I think getting Wolves on side at the prices makes perfect sense.
Flash:
Yeah, I like that. I like the moneyline +120 on the home side, and I do like that Wolves to score twice, and then at +155, listen, it’s eating away at me, I may, may just have to press the button. It’s a pass from Stinch.
Flash:
Now, this is your time to get yourselves in the chat, apart from Magnus because he’s worn out his keys, he’s typed that much. First of all, we have an added official pick from Stinch, we’re going to go to Turf Moor, it’s Burnley versus Brentford. Let me quickly give you the lines, it’s Burnley +170, draw +230, and Brentford +175. That tells me that this game is a flip of the coin, all eventualities are available, but what have you gone for, Stinch, and why?
Stinch:
I think Brentford should be favorites, I think the odds should be very similar to Watford v Southampton, we saw Southampton big favorites away at Watford, I think this is exactly how this match should be. I think it’s a game between two clubs that are seemingly going in opposite directions, it’s now no wins in 12 for Burnley, and actually, their sort of comfort blanket of Turf Moor, where it’s tight and the fans get behind the team… I know they were without fans for a long period of time, but it hasn’t seemed to make a difference this season.
Stinch:
Burnley have actually failed to win the last 14 home matches, again I’m going back to that confidence thing, and I think they’re really, really struggling in that department. It’s just two wins in 18, so how anyone can be backing Burnley at these prices, as a favorite, I think is very difficult to get onboard with that.
Stinch:
I mentioned that, at the beginning of the season, I’m a massive fan of Brentford. I think they, as I say, they’ve been a Premier League team in all but name for the last couple of seasons, they’ve got a great business model, they’ve got a great scouting network, and I think they’ve got a great coach with them as well. We’ve seen in a lot of games this season, that they’ve, I think they’ve been a little bit unlucky, I thought they played well against Leicester last week. I thought they absolutely battered Chelsea, I thought if it wasn’t for Mendy, they should have beaten Chelsea.
Stinch:
In terms of expected points, which gives a better reflection on teams’ performances, Brentford are a top four team, so that is kind of where I’m looking at this game, as like a bottom, I’m not saying Brentford are going to finish in the top four obviously, but Burnley are a big, big relegation runner. So I would say this is sort of a bottom three team against a mid-table team and I think Brentford should be favorites, they’ve been really…
Flash:
So, what’s your pick then?
Stinch:
I’m going for Brentford draw no bet at, so the pick’em, at -105 because then we get the security there, if it finishes in a draw, we get our money back, so the only way the bet will lose is if Burnley win, and as I say, they haven’t won the last 14 at Turf Moor. So I think Brentford are a great bet at the odds because I think Brentford should be favorites.
Flash:
Okay, the only reason I left this game alone is because I think that Burnley is going to be the first opposition that Brentford have seen that are completely different. I think that they’re going to lump it, they’re going to try and physically match them. I don’t like Jansson at the back, I think that he may get bullied by Wood.
Flash:
Also, this is the first time that Burnley have probably been favorites in a game prior to kick off, so all of a sudden, they’re going to turn up, they’re going to have their chests out, and they’re going to be thinking, “right, this is one of them games that we highlight, before the season starts, that we must get three points”. I’m just wondering if Brentford are going to want to continue… I wonder if they can twist their style, I wonder if they’re going to try and match them in physical, and then play when the energy levels start to drop. That’s what happens, you’ve got to match them first and then when you can play football, then that’s when you play. You’ve gone with Brentford draw no bet at -105. Now, get yourselves in the chat.
Flash:
Okay, here we go. First game, we’re going to go Newcastle versus Chelsea, just quickly. For me, I didn’t see there was any value other than the away win, but I just wonder if it’s one of them games, feel good factor, Newcastle… I just had to leave it. There was better things for me to have a look at.
Stinch:
Yeah, I couldn’t quite decipher whether this was going to be an open game or a tight one. Remember that Newcastle are just second game into the caretaker regime, and I know they drew 1-1 away at Palace last week, so on the face of it, that’s kind of keeping things tight and not giving much away, but actually, Palace had a lot of good chances last week and they deserved to win, really.
Stinch:
So then you’re thinking, okay, get in with Chelsea in goals maybe. Especially with Chelsea putting seven past Norwich, but we’ve talked on this show an awful lot about backing Chelsea in unders because under Tuchel they’ve been winning games 1-0 and 2-0. So, yeah, I just think it’s really difficult to decipher the sort of goals sides of [thing 00:36:16], I mean, Chelsea are very short priced away from home, -265. That’s a really difficult one to try and get onside there, and then try and include a goal angle. I mean, over 2.5 is the favorite, but as I say, with Chelsea winning a lot of games 1-0 and 2-0, Newcastle offensively, past few weeks, have been abysmal, I would say, and Chelsea, obviously, defensive, they’ve been fantastic.
Stinch:
So maybe Chelsea win 2-0, maybe if you were really pushed for a bet, maybe Chelsea win 2-0, just looking at the odds here.
Flash:
What about Chelsea at -265 in the parlay?
Stinch:
I think that’s a real short price though, because Newcastle, if they do decide to attack, especially with that crowd behind them, I think they are capable of scoring…
Flash:
Well, let’s leave it then, we’re not forcing it. We’ve not done, listen, we’re in week 10 and we’ve not done a parlay, so there’s no gun to our head. Also, Mark O’Haire might be sitting at home feeding the baby, watching this going, “oi, why are you doing a parlay when I’m not there?”
Flash:
Okay, let’s kick on to the next one because it’s Liverpool versus Brighton. Brighton decent, Liverpool, there must be a let down spot for them because they are going great guns. They’re scoring goals, they’re keeping clean sheets, and also, they are dominating in the manner of future Premier League, or even this season’s Premier League champions.
Stinch:
Yeah, Liverpool are the team you want to be with, aren’t they? It’s already reflected in the odds, Liverpool -400 against a team that I would describe as one of the better sort of mid-table, bottom half sides in the Premier League. Again, don’t really want to be taking Liverpool at those odds, the goal line’s set at three, and I think that’s where…
Flash:
I’m just looking to see what Brighton are to score. Brighton to score is -120, I can see that. I can see Liverpool winning this 3-1.
Stinch:
Yeah, but last week, we were, we’d sided with, Brighton weren’t going to score at home to Man City and…
Flash:
Yeah, exactly.
Stinch:
Liverpool are similar sort of juggernauts to City and it’s at Anfield this time around. That’s where I feel the Norwich goal line should be pitched at, 0.5, whereas Norwich is at 1.5. That’s the spots, this is a spot where I feel like that’s, it’s telling us to leave it because it’s exactly where we sort of expect it to be.
Flash:
Well then we will leave it. Exactly. The numbers are telling us to leave it, and this is where people force it. You lot in the chat and coming up, and you’re guessing, all you’re doing is throwing darts because you’re saying, “Chelsea to win in under four and a half”, and you’re saying, “draw”, and “both teams to score”. It’s one of those. Leave it. There’s so many, and especially here on Bet US, we’ve got four leagues to cover. We’ve given you maybe six or seven different shouts.
Flash:
The last one is City versus Palace. Now, I didn’t like this game. Patrick Vieira going back to Man City, and I look at the European side of things, and I’m going, right, he’s going to set these up. They were excellent against Arsenal, the way they set up. I even thought this was possibly a Palace plus two and a half, and they don’t get beat by three.
Stinch:
I hate betting Man City games because you don’t know how many they want to score, saw it last week against Brighton in the fact that sort of ran riot in the end with scoring four. I think the goal line in that game was set at 2.5, so that just goes to show how well, or how much, Man City increased the expectation.
Stinch:
The goal line here’s set at three, Man City goal line set at 2.5, but we’ve only got nine Palace games to go off. They’ve played well in some games, especially recently, so maybe we should lean on the fact that Palace, longterm, this season, end of the year, are going to be a good time and tough nut to crack. I just think there’re more questions than answers.
Stinch:
I was looking at Man City to keep a clean sheet, because they do have a very good record when hosting bottom half teams, but the odds are just -135 for keep a clean sheet.
Flash:
Palace looked decent going forward though, didn’t they? They had a game plan and they sprung them, and when you spring, you need to have pace. They had pace, they had a focal point in Benteke, they had Ayew, they had good energy in midfield. I mean, I could see, I mean, you see the way they took their foot off the gas. It’s all about the mentality of the home side. The home side get up early, then we can see Palace scoring, but we’ve also seen Southampton go there and keep a clean sheet.
Stinch:
Yeah, Conor Gallagher’s been fantastic for Palace in midfield, he was really good in that game against Arsenal. I mean, just looking here at the odds, Man City are sort of -600, you can get Man City to win and both teams to score at +175, I mean, that’s a huge boost if you fancy Palace to grab a goal. That’s probably the one to go for, if you think Palace are going to score, be greedy, I would say, and take, I mean, Palace just to score is +100, so take the +100 and boost it up to +175. The Man City attack is a juggernaut.
Flash:
Are we not saying that both, let’s put this down and we’ll do it really quickly now because we’ve got other shows to do at some stage this week. Brighton to score at Liverpool, one of these two will score. Palace to score at Man City, or Brighton to score at Liverpool. Listen, for us, we’re leaving it alone, but for you, there is an opportunity there to get a bit of value. Now, you can do what you like, but here are our official soccer picks for all the games that we’ve covered, but remember, you’ve got to add at the bottom, Brentford draw no bet at -105.
Flash:
Also, if you go over to BetUS.com and you sign up, you get 125% up to $2,500. All you’ve got to do is put a promo code in of EPL2021. EPL2021 is your promo code and all you’re going to do is going to get a 125% bonus, nice, up to $2,500. Also, please subscribe, subscribe means we’re going to get closer to 3000 subscribers for the soccer channel, and also press the bell. That means you’ll never miss any content. You press that bell, you’ll get a little ding, here comes the MBA, ding, here comes the NFL, and so on.
Flash:
Make sure you don’t miss the Serie A, the show coming up with Mina and Ice, the hottest show we have at the moment, for the last two weeks, over 10.6 units of profit. 10.6 units. They needed it. We needed it, because it’s a team game.
Flash:
Everyone in the chat, yeah, I ignored Spurs, Man United because we’ve given you the winners, you go and mess about where you like. All right, from everyone at Bet US, may all your bets be winners, thank you very much for the chat. Really appreciate everything, and Magnus, cool yourself down, my lad, and we’ll probably see you again on the Serie A show. You take care.
