Speaker 1:
Match day 12 will put two Premier League championship contenders to the test. Chelsea takes on Leicester City at King Power Stadium, while Liverpool welcomes Arsenal at Anfield. If you’re not sure about your picks yet, then stick around, because our host Flash is back from a well-deserved break, and is joined by soccer experts, Mark O’Haire and Stinch, to hook you up with all you need to know to make your best bets.
Flash:
Welcome to BetUS. I’m Flash, and it’s Premier League. It’s match day 12. We are back. My straitjacket has been taken off, because for the last 10, 12 days I’ve been absolutely crawling the walls. I’ve really missed my guests, which we’ll talk about in a while. But first of all, we are America’s favorite sports book. So how about we start off kickoff by giving you a little something. If you go to betus.com, you can sign up and get a 125% sign-up bonus, up to $2,500. All you got to do is put in your promo code of EPL2021. So that’s EPL2021 is your promo code. You get up to $2,500 dollars, and that’s a 125% bonus. Now, if this is your first time, please get yourselves in the chat. Remember, this show is for you, so don’t be sitting there on the side. If you’ve got something to say, get it in now, and we can have a little chat about it at the end.
Flash:
Also ring the bell, don’t press the bell. I’ve been told, press the bell? No one presses the bell. Ring the bell, and then that will make sure that we notify you, and you never miss any content. Again, thanks for that, [inaudible 00:01:38]. She’s always on my case to make sure that I’m not talking gibberish.
Flash:
Now, this week do we bet on emotion? Because we’ve got a new manager at Villa. We’ve got a new manager at Norwich, Spurs and at Newcastle, two of them my former teammates. So we wish them luck. But I’m not sure whether fortunes are going to turn for all four in the first week.
Flash:
Now, the award-winning Mark O’Haire from We Love Betting… I should say, not from, really, because he’s the owner, and he is also the owner of a new baby, who has obviously settled in now, settled in. So we obviously congratulate them still, and we will continue to do so.
Flash:
And on the other side of the fence, I’ve got Europe’s top odds compiler and all around sniffer of value in Mark Stinchcombe, and he’ll be called Stinch, so that there’s not Mark and Mark, and they’re both trying to speak at the first time.
Flash:
So okay, Mark O’Haire, I’m coming to you first. We’ve missed you for 10 days, and now we’ve got new managers at the helm at so many clubs. So do we bet on a motion, and then get off to a great start?
Mark O’Haire:
No, I don’t think we should bet on motion. I think we should bet on numbers, and bet on odds and prices. And I think we always say this, there’s caveats after international breaks.
Flash:
Oh, massive.
Mark O’Haire:
But yeah, this is a big one. But it feels like a bit of a reset in the Premier League now. We’ve had the transfer window out of the way, and teams have had an opportunity to bed in, and set their systems in place. Now, as you say, almost a quarter of the league changed coach as well. So we’re about basically at the quarter-way stage of the season. So we’ve got enough data on all these teams. We should know and expect what’s coming up from all these teams and coaches as well. So it feels like a good opportunity to start looking a bit more longterm, what these teams are aiming to achieve this season. But yeah, there’s a cracking slate of fixtures this weekend as well. But yeah, licking my lips, and getting very much looking forward to getting back into things.
Flash:
Well, make sure you’re not licking your lips on air, because that will look so, so wrong, sitting there going, “Yum, yum, yum.” No it’s totally wrong. Anyway, listen, Stinch, I look at these and think, okay, first of all, let’s get caveat right out the way, but we’re not going to see the international breakdown until March. We’ve got a couple more Champions League, but we always said after 10, 11 games of the season, we can now start really putting our foot down. And what we’ll also be adding to the show is if there’s a banker from the boys, that means two units, that means our favorite bet. Then at the end of the show, you will see it. So we are going to start maybe seeing a few more bankers from you, Stinch?
Mark Stinchcombe:
Yeah, I definitely get on board with what you’re saying, but in terms of the new managers, I always generally like to air on the side of caution, and give them a few games, just to see what formation they’re going to play, what style of play. Some of them we might know what they’re going to play, but then it’s whether the players can adapt.
Mark Stinchcombe:
Just quickly, I think Gerrard is going to do well at Villa longterm. I was impressed with what he did at Rangers, and the markets agreed with the job he did at Rangers. So the odds Rangers are a closing act compared to when he took over three years ago, and now significantly shorter. And I’m happy to trust that the market is accurate in its representation of his ability to do the job. Obviously, he comes from a good background from Liverpool, and all the knowledge and wisdom passed on from various managers there.
Mark Stinchcombe:
Eddie Howe I’m a little bit concerned, not so much with Howe, but maybe with the players he has at Newcastle. I’m not sure they can play the style of football he wants them to be able to play. Dean Smith, we’re going to come onto Norwich later, so I’ll probably save that for him. But Antonio Conte, I think we spoke about him in the last show. I’m very confident that he’s going to do a good job for Spurs, and I think when we get onto that game, you already see that the market is swayed towards Conte.
Flash:
I see two inspirational figures in Gerrard, who can stand up in front of his players, and their ears are going to be like satellite dishes. They’re going to take it on board, because he commands that respect. Same with Conte. Both played at top level. Different situation with the other two, because they’re both coaches and they’re both technicals. So basically you’ve got to get your players to buy into what you’re saying, whereas with the other two, you just basically follow them blind and just do as they say.
Flash:
Now then, let’s have a little look at the records, because they was looking healthy up until the last one. Listen, transparency is everything. Nine units. We caned nine units. So now we’re looking at just basically wiping our mouth. -7.92. So we’ve got to really rip into that. We always said after 10 games, let’s it going. So let’s have a little look at our first game, and our first game is an absolute cracker, because it’s Leicester versus Chelsea. Mark O’Haire, Leicester, I don’t know what I’m getting from them. They absolutely dominated in their last game, and it ends up a 1-1 draw. And I think to myself with Leicester, are you the real deal? A gap against the Chelsea side, who dropped points at home and killed everyone. And then you’ve got to be saying, well, Chelsea have got the biggest game probably in the last five, six years at Stamford Bridge midweek against [Uve 00:06:50].
Mark O’Haire:
Yeah, I think that will be in the back of their minds, but I don’t think it will be a priority coming into this match. They’ll be well aware how difficult this match could and should be, really, again, going away to Leicester, and already leading the Premier League table. So almost preservation is the key order of the day for Chelsea. You mentioned the game against Burnley. I got downed by that, backing Chelsea to win in that match, but I’d back it every day of the week if I was offered the same price on it. And they really should have banged the points. 18 shots in the box, poor finishing, ultimately cost them. But it looks like Lukaku, [inaudible 00:07:24] will be back in the fold this weekend, which is a big plus.
Mark O’Haire:
I do expect them to dominate again away at Leicester, because defensively they provide such a firm foundation for those four to do their thing. I mentioned before the Burnley game, but they’d only conceded one goal. There wasn’t a penalty in the Premier League this season. Well, now it’s two, but actually away from home, away from Stamford bridge. They’re still yet to concede a goal that wasn’t a penalty. So that’s absolutely remarkable considering we’re entering the end of November shortly.
Mark O’Haire:
So yeah, I think that foundation will provide them a really good platform to go to Leicester and get a solid result, a solid performance, because yeah, I just don’t fancy Leicester this season at all. I’m yet to be completely convinced that they can consistently challenge and be the same team that we’ve seen over the past 18, 24 months. They haven’t hit the same heights as they have, just four wins in the Premier League. I’ve got them ranked in the bottom six on expected points. They’ve actually lost the XG battle in eight of their Premier League games already this season, and been out shot by their opponents on seven occasions as well. Stinch has already talked about the defensive issues afflicting them for quite some time on this podcast, so I’ll let him talk about that rather than I will. But yeah, I’m very much in the Chelsea camp this weekend.
Flash:
Stench, can you talk over the numbers? Let’s get the numbers up, because when you’re looking at this game you expect Chelsea to basically control the game, because one of Leicester’s big failures is there’s been two end-to-end, which means the opposition are going to get plenty, plenty chances. I mean, first of all, Chelsea money line, Stinch, looks like it don’t complicate you.
Mark Stinchcombe:
Potentially. I feel like a bit like a broken record with Leicester, because I’m a big fan of their attacking availability. Vardy, Iheanacho, Daka, Pérez, Maddison, Harvey Barnes. I’ve even mentioned Tielemans is there. I’m just, I’m waiting, basically, for Brendan Rodgers to play Iheannacho and Vardy, or maybe all three of them with Patson Daka as well. We’re coming off an international break, and I’m not saying that for the sake of it. I’m saying that because you look at Leicester and the fact that Jamie Vardy has retired from international football, James Maddison is not in the England fold, and I think that could be something that goes in Leicester’s favor and against Chelsea. We’ve seen Chelsea ride their luck a few games this season. Brentford away is one that sticks in the mind. And I think we mentioned after the last international break they had two or three games where they really didn’t impress us that much.
Mark Stinchcombe:
So yeah, I mean, if longterm you’re happy to oppose Leicester, and you want to get with Chelsea, then yeah, I would just take Chelsea -125. As you say, don’t complicate, don’t have to worry about how many goals are in the match, or how many goals Chelsea score, et cetera. So maybe that would be the way to go. I’d say a few prices that jump out of me… So if we are anti-Leicester, for example, you look at the fact that Leicester not to is +155. I mean, Mark mentioned already about how good Chelsea had been defensively. Straightaway that leaps out on me. So you could go, if you’re backing Chelsea money line, maybe you have a slightly reduced stake on Leicester not to score, or Chelsea win to nil, because that’s certainly going to be a juicy price with those two combinations combined.
Mark Stinchcombe:
I mean, I don’t want to be lazy or come across as boring, but again, I’m sticking with the overs, just because it’s the outsider, I feel like it should be more 50/50 with the fact that Chelsea have had players away defensively, and with the fact that Leicester’s attackers in Vardy and Maddison haven’t had to go away. And Mark did touch on it, Leicester just three clean sheets in the last 26 games. And the odds there are saying that Leicester are almost 70% chance to score. So if they score, we’re expecting Leicester to score as well. And both teams to score is quite sure. I think it’s -120. So if both teams are scoring, I’m happy to go for the +100, take a little bit more of a risk, and go for the bigger price. Just because as we know, Leicester games longterm have been overs’ games. And having said all of that, I’d be happy to be in the camp where Leicester, where, sorry, where Chelsea come into this game, control it, and keep it to a low-scoring, 1-0 or 2-0 victory.
Flash:
1-0? Yeah, I mean, it looks and stinks of a 1-0. But there again, we’re talking about two sides that do have firepower, Mark O’Haire. So I mean, listen, you could see this being 3-1, maybe 2-0. But I mean, the +155 no goal for Leicester, I mean, that does jump out to be honest.
Mark O’Haire:
Yeah, it’s a big price and Tielemans is missing, I believe. I think he’s injured. And I think if you are asked to pick your one, two, three best-performing Leicester players this season, he’d absolutely be in everyone’s top three. So that is a blow. But yeah, I mean, I’ve given Leicester the respect that they do have a lot of quality attacking players, and they’re well capable of scoring against the best defenses in the world. There’s no doubt about it. They have that quality in the final third. So my idea was basically take Chelsea, but also stick in under four and a half goals, because you get such a range of correct scores on side, and it just boosts that price up a little bit more, very close to evens. You’re getting the 1-0, 2-0, 3-0, 4-0, 2-1 and the 3-1 on your side. That’s 30 of the last 32 wins across all competitions under Thomas Tuchel covered, basically. And I think that really appeals.
Mark O’Haire:
Leicester, I cannot see them keeping a clean sheet. It’s just two in 17 across all comps this season, one of which was against Millwall in the Cup. The other one was against Wolves on the opening day, when they were second-best, and should have lost the game rather than won. And as Stinch says, three clean sheets in 26 Premier League games, two of which came against relegated clubs last season. So Chelsea are creating at a decent rate these days, are very much in the top three in that regard. They’re converting an even higher rate. And as we know defensively, they’re giving very little away. So I expect this to be a, I wouldn’t call it a routine win, but I do expect Chelsea just to do a job on Leicester as Man City did earlier in the season.
Flash:
Maybe the word is comfortable, or controlling. I mean, everyone [crosstalk 00:13:30] in the… The people in the chat, they’re saying, “Yeah, 1-0 correct score, Chelsea.” You can definitely see that. But there again, we are talking about two sides who on their day can put the ball in the back of the net. Ashley is a bit concerned that we’re getting such a good price for Chelsea just to win the game -125, don’t complicate.
Flash:
Let’s have a little look at the official picks, because we’re all involved in this game. We’re all invested emotionally and financially, because it’s Chelsea and under four and a half go goals at -110. Chelsea money line at -125. For me, I can’t see it being over four and a half. So really, I’ve lost a bit of value there, because Mark O’Haire has nicked it. And over two and a half goals at plus 100. Yeah, I can see maybe 2-1 to Chelsea, maybe Chelsea 2-0 up and lesser. Consolation, VAR comes and screws you. But I think Chelsea money line at -125 is definitely the way to go.
Flash:
And let’s kick on to the next game, because this place will be buzzing. It’s Newcastle versus Brentford. I think it’s safe to say that Brentford are walking right into the lion’s den. They’re going to have to try and quiet things down, because Eddie Howe will have the place jumping, at least for the first 10 minutes, Mark O’Haire.
Mark O’Haire:
Yeah, I mean, that’s what we saw against Spurs, looking at a whirlwind first 10 minutes. They bent ahead, and then almost went back into their shells and were well-beaten. And this is an interesting game. Howe’s first match in the dugout. I know he’s not probably the standout name that Newcastle fans desperately wanted or expected or demanded, but I still believe he deserves a degree of respect. I probably will have different opinions on his appointments and his ability to conjure up something special with Newcastle compared to, say, Stinch. But I know he’s probably… Well, he, and Bournemouth wasted a lot of money in his previous job, but I think what he did over a long period of time there was really quite outstanding, to be honest. And it was only really the last sort of six months that things began to fall apart.
Mark O’Haire:
But he’s absolutely right, whether he can get to tune out of these players, who are probably a championship-quality squad, to play that style of football, and survive from the position they’re in, that’s a big work, that’s a big task. And they’ve got a few standout players who can make a difference, but they’re yet to win this season. The only team in England’s top four teams, top four tiers now, still to register a league win, and my ratings make them the second-worst team in the league, just above Norwich. So there are issues to address, particularly in both boxes. He’s not exactly renowned for putting together a water-tight back line. So I’d expect a front-foot approach here from Newcastle. And to be honest, I’m not too keen on backing them. I wonder what you guys are feeling, but I feel this is an opportunity for Brentford to possibly spoil the party and bloody Newcastle’s nose a little bit.
Flash:
Stinch, do you think the books… Let’s have a look at the numbers, and tell me if you think the books have gone a little bit overboard, and they’ve got involved in emotion.
Mark Stinchcombe:
Potentially. Although having said that, Brentford have lost their last four games. So perhaps you would think maybe Newcastle should be shorter. Max Wright we saw. They’ve had two home games since the takeover, and they were quite dismal, I would say, in both games, the one against Spurs and then the 3-0 defeat to Chelsea. Neither game to me they really looked up for it, I would say, or lacked a lot of quality, maybe, is a better way of putting it. I was just looking quickly at the cards market, because remember, in that spurs game I think I mentioned Newcastle over 1.5 cards. Well, they’ve caught onto it a little bit, because I think Newcastle got six in that game. And in subsequent games they’ve picked up at least, I think they picked up three in their last match. So now the line is at 2.5 with the -140 on over. So you wouldn’t really want to be backing it at that price. So the unders there probably looks a bit more value. But again, you wouldn’t want to watch the match, and hope they didn’t get too it hyped up for it. So yeah, I think this is a really, really difficult one to call.
Mark Stinchcombe:
I think I mentioned it preseason, I’m a massive Brentford fan, and a massive fan of their process, but a little bit concerned with the absence of the first choice goalkeeper David Raya. I think he’s going to be out for about six months. The reserve came in against Burnley. Even though he has played first team in La Liga, thought he was at all at sea in that Burnley game. And nobody would’ve expected Norwich to turn up at Griffin Park and score two. I know one of them was a parenting. The other one was from outside the box. But yeah, I just think Brentford, maybe the two weeks international break would’ve done them good. They can reassess and get regrouped again. But I think this is such a difficult game to call it at the odds.
Flash:
There’s two odds I really like. I like Newcastle not to get beat, because I know what Eddie is all about. There will be wingers going real deep into Brentford area, and getting the balls in the box as much as possible. And the fallbacks will be bombing on. Then you throw in a little bit of Callum Wilson, Saint-Maximin. And so I say to myself, Mark O’Haire, do we see Newcastle scoring twice? Because if we do, +155, and you’re not even caring whether they win, lose or draw.
Mark O’Haire:
Yeah, I mean, Stinch is right. I think this is a very difficult game to call. It’s a watching brief for me more so, because I want to see what Eddie Howe does with Newcastle from a tactical perspective, and how they approach this game. Because if you think back to Steve Bruce’s reign at the start of the season, Newcastle were coming out all guns blazing, really. They were trying to outscore teams old Kevin Keegan-style. And it wasn’t always working, because the defense is pretty weak. And I wonder whether Eddie Howe will take a similar approach. Because after Bruce left, Graeme Jones has very much taken the opposite approach of, let’s keep things tight and try and nick something. And neither tactical approach was particularly working to the same extent as they probably expect or hope.
Mark O’Haire:
So yeah, this is an interesting one. Brentford will look they’re… Well, Newcastle will feel that they are vulnerable after those four defeats, two of which came against Burnley and Norwich. I didn’t think they were deserving to losers against Norwich, and they do continue to carve out some decent gold-scoring opportunities. I think Thomas Frank will recognize the importance of stopping that raw tier, and just making them difficult to beat. And look, they’ve got quality in forward areas themselves. So yeah, this game could easily go over two and a half, but at the same time, I really wouldn’t be surprised if it went under two and a half, and it was a bit of a stink of a match. So I just want to leave it as a watching brief, and just analyze it from a tactical perspective after, and see what Newcastle attempted to achieve, and then probably make a play on them next week.
Flash:
And you’ve hit the nail on the head, because that’s exactly where I’m at. But I’m actually going to go with the emotion, and I’m not sure whether it’s because I know Eddie so well, I know how he sets up early in his reigns. And I’m thinking that Brentford, they’re going to be stunned. They’re not going to understand the emotion of flying around. They get the noise. And +155, I’m so close to adding the Newcastle team total.
Flash:
But let’s have a little look at the official picks, because the boys, they don’t dislike Newcastle, but they don’t like them enough to actually put their money down. But for me, I’ve got Newcastle drawing a bet at -115. And I’m so close to going with Newcastle team total, over one and a half at +155. And then obviously, that pays. If I get my 2-2 draw, then I’m a happy man. I will add that, and I will tell you if I add that as an official pick before the end of the show.
Flash:
So let’s move on to the third game, because again, this is a game where we have a new manager in place. It’s Norwich versus Southampton. Norwich, yes, they got a win against Brentford, but that was a glorified championship game. And yes, they did the double over Brentford last year when they both met in the championship. Now all of a sudden, they’ve got to start doing it at home. Stinch, I want to come to you first, because you have feasted on this Norwich, and not to score, Norwich not to win, Norwich is going to go down. And Southampton, dare I say, have looked quite solid in recent weeks by not letting the arrow position get too far in their half.
Mark Stinchcombe:
Yeah, I think Mark mentioned it on the last show when Southampton played Villa, how impressed he was with the Saints’ improved defensive performance. And the basic statistics really back that up. They’ve got the joint fourth-best defense in the league, five clean sheets in their last eight. And this is from a side that we were maybe concerned that we’re getting dragged into relegation fight at the beginning of the season, even after the first few games of season. So if they can build on this platform that Hasenhüttl has created, and James Ward-Prowse and Ché Adams, Stewart Armstrong, the lad that’s on loan from Chelsea, Broja, if they can start creating high-quality chances, and taking some of these chances, then it could see Southampton continue to push their way up the table.
Mark Stinchcombe:
I’m a little bit concerned at the appointment of Dean Smith. Basically, he did do a really good job at Walsall and Brentford, but a Villa there did definitely seem to be a bit of a reliance on Jack Grealish, almost an over reliance. I think we’ve started to see that a little bit this season. I’ve felt they were very… They’re quite clueless, really, in the last few games under his tenure. Didn’t really know what he was trying to achieve. He chopped and changed the formation. He dropped his captain Tyrone Mings when they played West Ham at home.
Mark Stinchcombe:
And actually I looked a bit further back at his tenure, and when he was managing Villa in the championship there was quite a long period without Jack Grealish for a few months. And even though, obviously, Villa expected to be top three, top four in the championship, they went 11 games without a win in over a 13-game span without Grealish during that period. So again, I just feel like he maybe has lost his way a little bit, and it’s a very, very tough job to come into now, isn’t it? Norwich arguably the worst team in the league. And the fact they lost Buendía, there seems to be a little bit maybe of disharmony with some of the players. Everybody is asking, why isn’t Billy Gilmour playing? Youngest ever Scottish player to reach 10 caps. Scotland has made it into the World Cup playoffs, beat a Danish team that everybody is raving about.
Flash:
He did really well, as well, Gilmour, really, really well.
Mark Stinchcombe:
Yeah, and everybody is questioning why he can’t play. So I think there’s a lot of issues there for Dean Smith to sort out, and I’m not sure he’s the right man to do it.
Flash:
It seems like a safe appointment to me, having Dean Smith, because you say, “Norwich are going to go down,” and then we’ll come back up, and then we’ll see how we go from there. Mark O’Haire, but on this game, and again, I’ll put the numbers up, so that you can have a little look at them, that Southampton away from home. Alarm bells start ringing when you get Southampton favored. It’s a +105. But in this matchup there’s no Grealish, obviously, for Norwich like there was for Dean Smith at Villa. So you’ve got to go with your wayside or nothing.
Mark O’Haire:
Yeah, I agree. Excuse me. I think clearly, +105 when you’re back in Southampton away from home in the Premier League, there has to be a reason for that. And the reason for that is Norwich are the worst team in the league, in a state of flux, really. There was obviously a premeditated decision to get rid of Daniel Farke, because they went away to Brentford and won, and they still chopped him. They’re clearly keen to try and break the cycle of yoyoing between the top two tiers. They’re not out of it at all, but five points on the board so far, and still five points of drift. It’s not ideal. And clearly the results have matched their performances, because I have them pretty much bottom across almost every metric available, from expected points, expected goals, big chances, the lots, really.
Mark O’Haire:
And if you’ve look at the goals they’ve scored, two of the five have been penalties, and they only scored twice from open play. So the loss of Emi Buendía was massive, and Stinch highlighted that at the start of the season that it has been the case. So yeah, there’s a lot for Smith to sort out. Whether we can get an immediate new manager bounce out of this team, I’m not so sure. Because Southampton, I’ve been really impressed by their turnaround, particularly from the start of the season, and almost remodeling themselves as a solid team who are more than capable of grinding out results, and keeping things very tight at the back. They come into this game with pretty much a fully-fit squad. Jack Stephens is the only player missing. They only lost twice since the opening day of the season. But most impressively for me, in those last 10 games, they’ve conceded just nine goals, and despite playing Chelsea, Man City, Man United and West Ham in that sequence.
Mark O’Haire:
So if you look at the underlying data, Saints have been performing really, really well too. Of late of course, three 1-0 wins in four, five shutouts in eight as well. So I look at knowledge, they’ve lost the shot count basically in 10 of their 11 games. It’s a big ask to just turn that on its head this weekend after just a few days on the training pitch with players who’ve probably been all around Europe with international teams. So I think Southampton are the solid settle team, more than capable of getting you results. I think +105 is fine, but again, I’ve boosted a little bit bigger by adding in the under four and a half goals, because the way the Saints are playing at the moment, this isn’t going to be a 4-4 or 4-3. So yeah, I think Southampton getting the win.
Flash:
Yeah, I don’t blame you. I must throw in a little bit of knowledge of, and personal opinion, is that the Premier League fixture has been very, very kind to Southampton. They’re on a unbelievable run. So let’s judge them when they’ve played maybe five of the top eight in a row. Because they’ve played Walls, Villa, Watford and Norwich. So basically I think… And obviously, West Ham in there as well, but West Ham was at home. I’m happy to go with Southampton as well, to be honest, just because I think they’re so athletic. They look to be going forward very, very comfortably. All the players seem to be recovering if they lose the ball, which I don’t see Norwich having the pace to go from defense into attack in the case of two or three seconds, which means Southampton are going to get back into their shape, and they’re going to be a very, very tough nut to crack.
Flash:
Let’s have a little look at the official picks, because I think we all like this game. Why is it though on my right-hand side as I’m looking, maybe on your left, because it’s mirrored image, Norwich team total under 0.5, +1.90. A staple diet. It’s almost like I invite a vegetarian to lunch, and it’s not roast every single time. Southampton under 4.5 at +130 makes my selection of just money, and I don’t complicate it. The +105 very, very lazy, because honestly, I would eat my hat if there’s more than four and a half goals in this game. So if Southampton is going to win, why would I not be on the +130? I just didn’t complicate it. I just looked at it and thought, okay, move on. Southampton win this game for me. And at plus money that will do, especially after the week where all three of us had last time out on match day 11.
Flash:
So it’s an away win at Southampton all the way for us. And we want them to win to nil for Stinch’s massive plus one 90. I think, Stinch, I’m going to be cheering that on just as much as my own. A nice 1-0, and all three of us are going to be happy. And there’s 1.30, 3.20, 4.25 units that we could be grabbing here if Southampton wins to nil, when they don’t score five.
Flash:
Moving on to the next game, because it’s the biggest game in the Premier League. We haven’t got picks for this game, but there’s got to be reasons why. Because it’s Liverpool versus Arsenal. Massive game. Liverpool one of the best sides in the world at the moment, going to West Ham and just put in a performance that was like, wow, you’re just like, the confidence is shot? How can it be shot? Mistakes. There was no fluidity, and West Ham did a number on them with crosses into the box. Mark O’Haire, do we buy into this new Arsenal regime, though, of we are back, we’re tough to beat, and we’re going to go to Anfield and try and get something. I’m not one of them, but I still want to put my money on Liverpool.
Mark O’Haire:
It has got to be Liverpool for me, but I think Arsenal are on the right track, and they’re making small steps of progress. Unbeaten in 10 across all competitions. It’s six wins from eight, unbeaten in the Premier League. And I think crucially for Arteta and Arsenal, they’ve been able to field close to their best 11 routinely and consistently, and defensively they have started to look pretty secure with the new signings. Bellerin and Ramsdale has made an impact. Tommy [Asher 00:29:48] at right back, Ben White. Thomas Partey is enormous, and he’s been playing regularly. He should be available this weekend. Gabriel as well. So they’re starting to get decent partnerships and decent continuity in that team, which does make a difference. You’re asking how far have they come, and are they really capable of going to Anfield and getting a win? I think it’s unlikely, because if you look at the track record, or previous matches, the one-nils against Norwich, Burnley and Watford that Arsenal won weren’t overly convincing. They were very good at Leicester, it has to be said. Then they took advantage of an out-of-format in there as well.
Flash:
[crosstalk 00:30:18] the match in that game, Mark O’Haire. So I feel really good there’s a goalkeeper getting mad at a match.
Mark O’Haire:
Exactly. So there’s caveats to all of this with Arsenal, and I think this is going to be a good barometer to see how far they can really come. Because Anfield is normally where they struggle. I think they’ve lost six of the last eight in the Premier League away at Liverpool, conceding three or more goals on seven occasions. They should be a lot tighter and a much more solid units. But this is a completely different kettle fish to playing Norwich, Burnley and Watford, really. So I think the jury is out on whether they’re good enough to step into the top four, but I do think they’re top-six candidates. I think they’re heading in the right direction.
Mark O’Haire:
But ultimately this is a Liverpool team on a bounce-back mission after what happened against West Ham. And they’re having their obituary written after that defeat, despite being the first loss in 25 games, and only being four points off the top in mid-November. People are jumping a little bit too hastily to conclusions about Liverpool’s season. For the most part in this campaign they’ve been absolutely superb, particularly going forward. They scored twice or more and all but one game across all competitions, which is just outrageous, really. And I back them to score two goals against this Arsenal defense, despite their progress being made.
Flash:
Let’s stick the numbers up. And while I’m sticking the numbers up for Stinch to have a little look, everyone in the chat has an opinion on this game. And why wouldn’t you? Most of it’s Liverpool, and both teams to score. Do we see Arsenal scoring? Because if we do, then I think we’re going to have an absolute cracker of a match, and we find the value. Where would the value be if we see both teams scoring, Stinch?
Mark Stinchcombe:
I’m a little bit concerned with Arteta’s playing style when it comes to these big games. He tends to revert to a very defensive output, try and keep things tight, and very rarely venture forward. Because I think when they have tried to get out, the current attacks haven’t been very fluid, and teams like Man City and Liverpool, with the high press, have won the ball back quite easily. I mean, if you look at the two games last season, Liverpool won 3-0 and 3-1. Liverpool averaged 65% possession, and out shot Arsenal 37 to seven. An absolute gulf in those two victories. But the thing is, I think early days in Arteta’s reign he had success playing this way, so he beat Liverpool 2-1 at the Emirates playing this manner. But the two goals for Arsenal were both Liverpool errors. And then he also beat Man City at Wembley in the FA Cup, again, with two bammy encounter attack goals.
Mark Stinchcombe:
So I think, again, he’s just going to revert to type. So I wouldn’t be confident in Arsenal scoring, but we know we have seen Liverpool, particularly in that West Ham were, very sloppy defensively, and not something you really associate… Allison has been away with Brazil. So that could play a part into it with jet lag or whatever for being away as well. So yeah, maybe Liverpool and both teams to score it is the way to go. You’d fancy Liverpool to outscore Arsenal, and yet maybe Arsenal are capable of nicking one of these goals on account of attack, when they should probably be full of confidence based on their last few results.
Flash:
I saw two fallbacks come off very late in the Scotland-Denmark game midweek. Robertson, obviously, for Liverpool, who’s so, so important, and Tierney. So it’ll be interesting to see if they’re going to be a match fit, and if they play any type of role. Because I see the fallbacks in this game so, so important, because as we know, in Liverpool they pin teams back. But I’ve also seen with Arsenal is they try and pin, the opposition fallbacks back. So the something that’s got to give here. I’m looking at Armstrong, thinking, well, +165, the way that Liverpool defended against West Ham, I had to leave the game alone. And if I just asked you both, what was the main reason you left the game alone, Stinch?
Mark Stinchcombe:
I just think probably the odds are about right. I mean, it’s the same odds that Liverpool were, or have been, in the last few seasons at Anfield against Arsenal. And I think probably I’m a little bit trying to be a bit cautious, based on the recent run of results with my bets. So this week I’ve just up to what I know, basically, rather than trying to manufacture an angle where I feel maybe the odds are about correct. I mean, you probably wouldn’t really want to be betting over three goals, and you probably don’t really want to have to see four goals to get paid. But at the same time you wouldn’t want to watch this game and be sat on unders. Because every time one of the teams go for forward you’d just be covering your eyes, wouldn’t you? So yeah, I don’t think there’s anything wrong in saying that the prices are fine. If the prices are fine, then we look for an angle in another game.
Flash:
Mark O’Haire, is this just a lineup check if you do want to get involved? Because there’s plenty in the chat who are just going a little bit blind with Liverpool win, Liverpool and both teams to score, and nothing to do with this game, but Ole out.
Mark O’Haire:
I mean, similar to Stinch, really, it’s a game I wouldn’t be have no qualms of getting involved with, but there’s nothing there price-wise to really hook me in in terms of elevating it to top three bet in the Premier League this weekend. So I did consider Liverpool to win and both teams to score. If you were going to get plus 200, then absolutely I’d get involved. But you’re not going to get that. So doubts over Arteta’s approach with this Arsenal team, but at the same time you caveat with, well, they’ve got so much quality in forward areas, and with Aubameyang, Lacazette, Saka, Smith Rowe, if they do want to play offensive football, or if they’re chasing the game, there is potentially a goal in this game for them.
Mark O’Haire:
So just a question marks over price and how these two teams play this game out, considering it’s come straight off an international break. But I expect Liverpool to win. I expect them to score two goals. So that would’ve been the angle I looked for, but you’re not going to get +200, unfortunately.
Flash:
No, and you’ve got to get Liverpool to score three goals to get paid at +140. Now, the other problem I’ve got with Arsenal is that I’m hearing that Aubameyang may not play, Partey may not play, Tierney may not play. So then all of a sudden I’m thinking, have Arsenal got the squads in depth to go away and win? Well, I tell you what. All three of us have just said, we all think Liverpool will win the game. How they win the game, we’re not too sure. But the value and the numbers, we have to walk away, we have to walk away. So good luck. And by the way, good luck with press… Remember, press the thumbs up. Only 19 of you out of 50. We haven’t even hit 40%. So 50 of you watching live, and only 19 thumbs up. So stick a little thumbs up for appreciation of Mark and for Stinch. So there’s no selections in that game.
Flash:
We go to the final game though, and it’s another new manager. So let’s have a little look, and it’s Spurs versus Leeds. Conte, home game. Mark O’Haire, I’m more than happy to go with the home side here on the back of Kane scoring six goals. Yes, he scored against the dog and duck, and the red lion, but at the end of the day, it’s a striker scoring goals, and it’s amazing how things can quickly turn around, and people have short memories if he goes and gets a couple this weekend.
Mark O’Haire:
For sure. I’m keen on Spurs as well. Before the trip to Everton, Conte’s first Premier League game, I was quite bullish about their prospects, and the market moved, and toward their direction. But what a dreadful game. Basically, nothing happened in it. And we didn’t really learn a huge amount about Conte’s Spurs. So keen to see what he’s been able to do on the training ground. Players have been away, et cetera, but surely we’ll see some signs of progress, and certainly in the reports we’re hearing about the tone of training ground, and what has been going on, he has tried to increase fitness levels. We always hear that from a new manager, trying to improve fitness levels. So they’ve also kind of taken ketchup off the menu, which again, is something always hear about continental managers coming into the English game. But crucially, I think he [crosstalk 00:38:25].
Flash:
Just on that subject with ketchup and that, right? Sausage sandwich. Do you have red, so ketchup, tomato, ketchup, red, or do you have brown sauce?
Mark O’Haire:
Red ketchup.
Flash:
Ketchup. And brown sauce maybe with a bacon sandwich?
Mark O’Haire:
Yeah, I’m either-all, really, whatever is available for bacon sandwiches.
Flash:
[inaudible 00:38:44] that is. But you want the sausage and the bacon, and maybe an egg, and [crosstalk 00:38:48].
Mark O’Haire:
Stick it all in the sandwich, Flash.
Flash:
Exactly. I digress, but I just always love a little bit of brown sauce in my sausage, and tomato ketchup up with a bacon sandwich. Sorry, Mark. We’re actually talking about Spurs versus Leeds, Conte’s first home game, and I fancy the home side win, and they score goals. Sorry, Mark.
Mark O’Haire:
No, that was it, really. Just Conte is well aware, but they failed to have a shot and target in successive Premier League games. No team has ever gone three games in the Premier League without having a shot on target. So that’s something to look out for. But I completely expect them to turn that corner because he gets unfairly labeled as a defensive coach, and I don’t think his teams are particularly defensive at all. He’s keen to focus on attacking patterns, and shape and movements. And he’s certainly got the assets in forward areas here for Spurs to be a really quite exciting force.
Mark O’Haire:
And you’re absolutely right about Harry Kane as well. It doesn’t matter who he’s playing against. The fact that he’s scoring goals, he’ll be feeling good coming into this game, and he will get opportunities, because we know what Leeds are all about. We know that they leave themselves very much open. Just the one clean sheet so far this season. I don’t imagine they’re going to be able to keep Spurs at bay for 90 minutes. So I’m very pro-Spurs this weekend.
Flash:
I was looking half time, full time as well, Stinch, but obviously, let’s get to the most important thing. Is it tomato ketchup with a sausage sandwich?
Mark O’Haire:
Yeah, red sauce.
Flash:
Okay, let’s get on. Spurs. Let’s put the numbers up, so you can go through them and tell us where there’s value, because I think there’s plenty value. What about Spurs halftime, full-time? What about Spurs coming out the traps, and over one and a half goals at -140? You’re not going to get rich, but I think if they score twice, they win the game.
Mark Stinchcombe:
I would be in agreement with that. I’m not sure if you know what the odds are for Spurs to win, and spurs to go over 1.5 goals. So basically Spurs win the game in any other fashion other than 1-0, maybe that would be the way to get it, I think.
Flash:
+100.
Mark Stinchcombe:
I think that makes sense. You wouldn’t expect Spurs just to win 1-0, would you, against the Leeds team that give you opportunities? I think that’s my reservation about Leeds at the moment. I’m still not sure about Bamford’s availability. Even if he is available, he’s been out for such a long time, I wouldn’t expect him to be fit. And Leeds just seem to give you a chance at the back on a regular basis. This looks like a perfect game to kick off Conte’s tenure, doesn’t it? I think the game against Everton, as Mark has already alluded to, was quite turd. Maybe the players struggling to get into the fluidity, or get into the formation and style of play that Conte wants. But ultimately, you look at player-for-player, Tottenham do have the better players, other than potentially Raphinha maybe.
Mark Stinchcombe:
And I think their struggling a little bit, Leads at the moment, with their own identity. Without that focal point, he’s got Rodrigo, he’s got Jack Harrison, he’s got Daniel James. They’re all floating about in that forward area, but nobody really that I think would say that they can rely on in terms of going to make the correct runs, and be in the right place to score goals. They’re not scoring many goals, and when they do, they tend to be from difficult chances. Raphinha has scored a free kick against Leicester. Week before against Norwich he scored from outside, or just inside the area, but he had to beat three or four men to get there.
Mark Stinchcombe:
So I mean, I think Tottenham is the correct team to side with. I mentioned before about Conte driving the price. When they played Everton, Tottenham opened up around +170 and went off about +130, just on the back of Conte’s appointment. And I think you see that already. Tottenham -140. If this was under, nobody would be touching them at -140.
Flash:
No. And I’m glad you said that, Stinch, because this is the biggest thing for me. It’s a mindset of, I don’t know what Nuno was doing, going to Spurs, who are all-out attack front-foot team, got pace in abundance, and all of a sudden he slowed everything down. I think Conte comes back in, and it’s high-energy, and it’s get after the teams.
Mark Stinchcombe:
Conte for me is like a win-at-all-costs man. Everywhere. he’s been he’s won, and he’s been successful, either into Chelsea… I think even his first stint… Mark will probably be able to tell me who it was in Serie B, but I think he did quite well there as well. He’s just a winner. He’s just an absolute winner, and he demands nothing less than being a winner. You see him on the touch line absolutely screaming and ranting at the players. So I think Tottenham will be a success long term. Just, I don’t really want to touch them at -140 until I’ve seen a bit more of the players basically taking on board the coach’s instructions, just because I thought that was a rather disappointing performance against Everton. But I do believe Leeds is arguably the perfect team to get back on track, because they’ll give Spurs a lot of space.
Flash:
Do we like Spurs money line, Liverpool money line in a parlay, gents?
Mark O’Haire:
I’m happy just to take Spurs as they are, to be honest. I wouldn’t bet anyone off it, because I think we’re all pretty much in agreement that Liverpool are the most likely winners. But I just think Tottenham -140 wasn’t necessarily for me. I think the +100 you shouted out there, Flash, on Spurs to win, and one and a half goals, does appeal. Spurs were minus money when they went away so on the road in May. They may have lost that game, but even still you look at that, and then you compare the price to where they are now. I know it’s a little bit short, and certainly it wouldn’t be about that price under Nuno. But I just remember back to this match last year under Mourinho, where they were going through a bit of a sticky patch, Leeds came to Tottenham, and they just got cut apart in the transitions and counter attacks when possession was turned over, just using the pace to get in behind the Leeds back line.
Mark O’Haire:
And I can see something similar, because Leeds just tend to falter against the best teams in the league. They lost six of eight away, teams above them in the Premier League last season, conceded 24 goals. They’re winless against teams above them this season. They’ve lost all three games against the top six, conceding 10 goals this season as well. And as Stinch says, I think this is a great opportunity for Conte to get his first win on the board. First home game in the Premier League as well. It’ll be a good attendance. It’ll be a good atmosphere as well. So I like them, but in terms of the parlay, personally I’m quite happy just taking Tottenham as they are, but wouldn’t put anyone off it.
Flash:
We’re not going to put you off that parlay. We’re not going to do it ourselves, because we’ve got plenty. It’s Liverpool and Spurs money line. It’s going to pay about +155 as well. So good luck, if that tickles your fancy.
Flash:
So have a little look at the official picks, please. Because Mark O’Haire has just gone. Tottenham money line at -140. I’ve got Tottenham to win, and over one and a half, I fancy Tottenham score twice on their own. +100, and it’s a pass from Mark Stinchcombe. Let’s go right back to the beginning, when I say to you that if you go to betus.com and you sign up, we’ll get view 125% signup bonus, and that’s up to two and a half thousand dollars. All you got to do is put in a promo code of EPL2021. So EPL2021 is your promo code up to two and a half thousand dollars will be coming your way, and equates to 125% signup bonus. Subscribe.
Flash:
If this is your first time, then I hope you’ve enjoyed it. You get yourselves in the chat, put the thumbs up on your way out. Shows a bit of appreciation to my two esteemed guests that come under the head in expert. So that means this weekend, no pressure. We’ve got to do the business and ring the bell ring. The bell gives you a notification from us that you’ll never miss any content again. And if it’s soccer odds that you love, then we are the place, because we have Serie A and La Liga today, and then we have Bundesliga tomorrow. And next Monday it’s round five of the Champion’s League. If you like other-shaped balls, then we have the NFL. We have NCAA B, NBA, and it’s just going to go on and on and on. And don’t forget the NHL.
Flash:
Any questions in the chat, Liverpool parlay piece for sure for Danny Lopez, seen as happy with Spurs, and both teams to score. Let’s have a little look at all of our picks throughout this weekend. And remember if you see one that’s highlighted all yellow, it means it’s a two-unit play. It’s a banker. So for me, I’ve gone with our first banker of the season in the Premier League as it’s highlighted. It’s Tottenham to win, and over 1.5 goals in the game at +100. So that’s two units. I’m also going to add Newcastle over one and a half team goals. And that’s at +155. Stinch is there. We’re looking for a gold fist at the King Power Stadium. Nearly said Walker Stadium. Nearly said Filbert Street, for the older generation.
Flash:
Mark has got the value for me. Of all of that whole page, apart from my banker, I’m loving Southampton to win, and under four and a half goals, at +130. So from everyone at BetUS, from Stinch, who’s on my left as you look, and Mark O’Haire is on my right, I look forward to seeing you all, and may all your bets be a winner. So from everyone at BetUS sportsbook, we appreciate you. Tell your friends. This is your home of soccer betting. You take care.
