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Premier League Picks Matchday 14 | Premier League Odds, Soccer Predictions & Free Tips

Which Premier League Teams to Watch and Bet On

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Exclusive to our soccer odds YouTube channel, the top four European leagues covered weekly, all matches previewed by the best betting experts, predictions and match analysis hosted by ex Premier League soccer player, Gordon “Flash” Watson. Subscribe, hit that bell button, and never miss a show. Bet US, where the game begins.

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Match Day 14 kicks off early this week with Premier League teams playing three games in a week’s time. Teams in the Champions League and the Europa League have had an extra encounter thrown in between Premier League meetings, so it’s been a hectic period for them and the clubs will not have much time to relax or recover. So, being fit and in a good shape will be crucial in the upcoming weeks, but rest easy, because our soccer crew will be in shortly to make sure you have everything you need to be in a good position on this Match Day 14 of the Premier League.

Gordon Watson:

Welcome to Bet US, I’m Flash and it’s Premier League, it’s Match Day 14. Good morning, good afternoon, and good evening around the world. We are America’s favorite sports book. So, if you like this video, then please subscribe, press your thumbs up and also ring the bell. Ring the bell means that you’ll never miss any content again. And as far as the subscription goes, just subscribe. We want to get to 3,000 as quickly as possible and we have channels for all of our different sports. So, soccer, this is your home.

Gordon Watson:

We’ve got Premier League and Serie A midweek cards. And then on Thursday we go back, it’s Premier League, it’s Bundesliga, no, it’s not Bundesliga, it’s LaLiga and Serie A. And on Friday it will be Bundesliga. Now, my guests today are award winning owner of We Love Betting, which is Marc O’Haire and he’s ably assisted by European odds compiler and all round digger for value.

Gordon Watson:

In fact, he loves value, and that’s Mark Stinchcombe and he will be known as Stinch so there’s no confusion. We have five games. We have a new format. We go get the odds up. We talk them through. And also if we have a banker at the end, it will be highlighted. So, get yourselves in the chat. Remember, it’s your show. You got some tips. You got some picks or some questions you want to ask then put them in now. If I see them then at the end I’ll ask the boys, why have we not got involved in this game? Mark O’Haire, I’ll come to you first. It was a good weekend, but some sides I’m looking at, they’re starting to struggle. I mean Everton.

Mark O’Haire:

Yeah. I was quite surprised when I looked at the league table on Monday morning to see where they were actually sitting now, it probably escaped me how far they’ve fallen since probably those opening three, four weeks when people had quite a lot of optimism around Everton and the way they started under Rafael Benítez, but it’s been a slow decay and I think injuries have certainly played a part in their demise down the Premier League table.

Mark O’Haire:

I think it’s two points from the last seven games now. And they’re coming into this round against Liverpool in the Merseyside Derby, with huge pressure, huge pressure on Rafael Benítez. We know he wasn’t wanted by the Everton fans before the start of the season, if things go a little bit wrong this midweek at Goodison Park, it could be all over by the weekend, but, yeah, massive pressure on that match for Everton.

Gordon Watson:

Yeah. And the whole of this week is going to be talking about the Merseyside Derby at Goodison. Everton versus Liverpool. Normally form goes right out of window. Don’t fancy that’s going to happen, Stinch, but we’ve also got to keep our ears and noses to the ground because they tell me that more snow is on the way, especially in the North of England, so be a little bit careful there if you’re going over because the weather might well play a part. If you’ve got any sort of inkling on the weather in the chat, then please let us know. Stinch, we like night games, especially with the run up towards Christmas.

Mark Stinchcombe:

Yeah, it’s always exciting this time of year in England, because the games come thick and fast. There’s not any winter breaks or anything like that. And that’s the beauty of English football. And I think all of us as natives absolutely love the packed Christmas schedule. This is our first midweek round, hot on the tails of Champions League last week and international was the week before, so, yeah, coming thick and fast and there are international breaks now until March, so it’s a fantastic opportunity for some teams to put a run together. I’m thinking of the likes of Leeds, once they get all their players back, Newcastle under Eddie Howe, Man United obviously are going to be having a new manager.

Mark Stinchcombe:

I’m not sure if he’s managing this week or it will be the week after. So, yeah, exciting time in my opinion. Just on your teams faltering at the moment, just to give you one that surprised me. So, Brighton and Hove Albion have failed to win the last eight matches, but they still sit ninth in the Premier League table. And that’s just what happens sometimes and you have to dig a little bit deeper and you can’t rely on the table telling us a team’s true ability all the time.

Gordon Watson:

Yeah, and it starts to get congested where you can go from 17th in the table to 11th with just one win or one win and a draw, it’s so important to avoid defeat, just pick up something wherever you can, because it is an absolute rat race. Just looking here, the manager of Everton will be out the club after the Derby. No, I fancy they’ll keep with their manager to be honest. Okay. Let’s kick straight on. Remember, I’m going to do the records on Thursday, so they will all be updated. But our first game is an absolute cracker. I think there’s great value to be had here. It’s Newcastle versus Norwich. Newcastle, minus 115, were minus 110 early last night, Norwich at plus 310, I cannot believe that. Draw at plus 270, but Stinch, Norwich under not to score basically at plus 175.

Mark Stinchcombe:

Yeah. I’ll go back to it again. I feel like maybe I could be accused of being a bit lazy and backing it again.

Gordon Watson:

What, lazy for having a winner?

Mark Stinchcombe:

Honestly, I just think the price is too big to ignore and I know it’s against Newcastle, who are one of the worst teams defensively in the league, but I think what statistics don’t tell you is confidence. You can’t put a number on confidence. I just think Norwich’s confidence is just shot to pieces. They didn’t play too badly against Wolves at the weekend in the nil nil, if there was a team that deserved to win, it was Norwich, they created like two decent enough opportunities.

Mark Stinchcombe:

But I just go back to their long term data and they’ve failed to score in 17 of the last 23 Premier League matches, nearly 75%. Yeah, we’re getting odds here of them not scoring at 36%. And it’s just such a gulf. I would think maybe, if I was thinking what would be the correct price, maybe plus 140, something like that, but you mentioned it already, the St James’s crowd are going to be absolutely rocking for this, six pointer, under the lights. And I think it could be almost a demolition job for Newcastle, if things click.

Gordon Watson:

No, I like that.

Mark Stinchcombe:

If things click for them, I think they could run away with this game. So, yeah, just continuing down the same route of opposing Norwich offensively, but then at the same time, you could also just back Newcastle to win. It’s a similar route if you’re opposing Norwich, if you don’t think Norwich are going to score many, then back Newcastle if you want a bit of a safer bet, but I’m just still a little bit concerned with Newcastle, especially after Saturday’s showing where they barely created anything, despite having quite an offensive team out. So, no wins yet this season. So, I’ll go with a bigger price on something that’s landed as you may mentioned already time and time again.

Gordon Watson:

Yeah. I thought you were still being really generous at plus 140 for Norwich not to score because if it was at 140, you’d still go for it. I think they’re around the plus 110 and then minus 110 for them to actually score. Mark O’Haire, I’m liking Newcastle, minus 115. I’m liking the over two and half at minus 115, but I’m really liking also Newcastle to score twice at minus 105.

Mark O’Haire:

Yeah. I think the latter of those three are probably the most appealing to me. To be honest, I personally don’t really want to be tight backing Newcastle at minus money. They will win at some point and it might well be this match against Norwich, but I’m not sure they yet they justify being that price. So, I’d rather expect them to be plus 105 or that’s where I’d start to be interested in.

Mark O’Haire:

But, yeah, I definitely want to be with Newcastle in terms of finding a goals route because you look at the 11 that Eddie Howe picked at the Emirates, and of course the performance never really materialized, but he basically picked 2 center halves, and everyone else was forward thinking, even the full-backs, everyone on the pitch was there geared to get forward and score goals.

Mark O’Haire:

And the display just never happened. They just never got forward. It was very cautious, very pragmatic, very unlike Eddie Howe and very unlike Newcastle so far this season. And if you look back to his reign at Bournemouth, it was always about getting forward, scoring goals, out scoring your opposition because defense has never been his or Bornemouth’s strong point, or Newcastle’s.

Mark O’Haire:

So, yeah, you guys are absolutely right. The atmosphere should be absolutely rocking at St. James’s Park. But the beauty of this match is both teams will see it as winnable. Both teams will feel it’s a huge game down at the bottom to get massive points on the board. So, I’ve been reasonably impressed by Norwich since the early start of the season. They only lost twice in the last seven now. I know Dean Smith isn’t exactly renowned to either for strong defensive displays, and they are lacking a goal threat from open play at the moment.

Mark O’Haire:

But of all the teams to play in the Premier League right now, Newcastle do have the worst offense outside of Norwich. So, they’ve conceded multiple goals in nine of 13 games this season, they’re yet to keep a clean sheet, but going forward, they have got plenty of players who can cause problems for that Norwich defense as well.

Mark O’Haire:

So, if I was getting involved in this game, I was looking towards either overs and BTTS or alternatively, if you do you want to get Newcastle on side, I quite like the plus 275 on Newcastle to win and both teams to score because I think Norwich have got enough ability in the final third, despite probably being Championship class, to cause that Newcastle defense problems in the counter attacks, transitions, set pieces, et cetera.

Gordon Watson:

Plus 275 for Newcastle to win and both teams to score. Everyone in the chat is starting to agree with you though, Mark O’Haire, by saying that Newcastle are too short at minus 115. I think they’re minus 115 for a reason, they score goals, Norwich don’t. But if Norwich are going to score, then obviously you’d love to play Newcastle.

Gordon Watson:

Let’s have a little look. I’m going to press this button. You know how it works. Let’s have a little flick round and see where the official picks are going to go [inaudible 00:10:58] then. There you go. Newcastle, money line at minus 115 for me, [inaudible 00:11:03] team total over 1.5 at minus 105 and Norwich team total under 0.5, plus 175. We don’t even have to ask Stinch now. We’ve just seen Norwich plus money not to score and we just stick it up for him.

Gordon Watson:

Okay. So, that’s Newcastle, home win. Don’t worry about the minus 115. It’s not a trap. It is a gift. So, let’s move on to this second game because we’re going up. Well, we’re going to come down South, but it’s still North of the capital, it’s Leeds versus Palace. Leeds at plus 145, Palace, a massive plus 215, the draw, plus 225. I think two of the three main markets here are definite runners. Mark O’Haire, Leeds, Palace, should be an open game. I think there’s goals. I couldn’t pick the winner.

Mark O’Haire:

Yeah, I think on paper, it probably probably does look like quite a tricky game. Both of these two teams put in quite disappointing displays at the weekend. Palace got nothing but Leeds took a point when probably they didn’t deserve to get a point considering Brian hit the woodwork three times, Neal Maupay missed some really good opportunities as well.

Mark O’Haire:

I’m just worried a little bit about Leeds at the moment, the direction they’re heading. We know they’ve got, or they’ve had, injuries. We know Luke Ayling and Patrick Bamford remain out for this midweek, but Kalvin Phillips in defense, I’m not sure that’s the best utilization of his qualities. Dan James as a starting center center forward or the false nine I’m not sure gets the best out of him either. Rafinha didn’t look happy at the weekend, didn’t make a huge amount of impact.

Mark O’Haire:

And you look at their best player this season, you’d probably say Rafinha or the goalkeeper, Meslier, which kind of goes to show what they’ve been doing so far this season. They’ve only kept two cling sheets still, and because of that and because of their defense, I think most teams have a bit of joy playing against Leeds. I expect Palace to score, and if they score at Elland Road, then it’s going to be difficult for them to be beaten. That’s my view anyway.

Mark O’Haire:

Patrick [inaudible 00:12:56], very critical of their performance against Aston Villa. But on the whole this season, they’ve been very difficult to beat, Crystal Palace, just a third loss all season. The other two came away at Chelsea and away at Liverpool. They’ve already won at Man City. They’ve held West Ham and Arsenal away from home and they’ve beaten Wolves and Spurs and held Leicester and Brighton already this season as well.

Mark O’Haire:

So, it’s a tough schedule, but they’ve been making slow, steady progress in the right direction. And I thought this was quite fascinating actually, heading into the weekend, Crystal Palace, if you excluded the big three at the top of the division, and you looked at the expected goals supremacy tables, Crystal Palace would top it, which suggests that they’ve been the best team outside of the big three so far this season, which is really quite fascinating, really.

Mark O’Haire:

But, yeah, I just think Palace, there’s there’s value to be had in Palace in this match, whether you want to take the plus 215, or whether you want to take the pick them plus 120, I’ve taken a little bit shorter by getting Palace plus a quarter goal onside. You can find it in the alternative markets, which is my-

Gordon Watson:

Do you want to explain that to the people who don’t understand plus a quarter of a goal, please?

Mark O’Haire:

Yeah, sure. So, you’re basically spitting your stake between the pick them and Palace to win the game. So, if the game ends all square-

Gordon Watson:

Pick them is draw, no bet?

Mark O’Haire:

Yeah. Basically, if the game ends in a draw, you get a half stakes winner, your other half is returned. And if Palace win, you get a full stakes payout. So, the only way you don’t make money is if Crystal Palace lose the match at Elland Road, which I think is really appealing. They’ve only lost three times this season. Leeds have won just twice. Those wins came against Watford and Norwich. Leeds have kept two clean sheets and scored twice or more, just twice.

Mark O’Haire:

Palace have scored in 10 of their last 11 and scored twice or more in seven of those 11 as well, including four or five away. So, I expect Palace to score, if they do score, I don’t expect them to lose, which means we should [crosstalk 00:14:33].

Gordon Watson:

Mark, do you expect to score twice?

Mark O’Haire:

I wouldn’t put it past them. They’ve got that amount of quality in forward areas and, yeah, you look at those numbers, it does appeal, doesn’t it? They’ve got a little-

Gordon Watson:

[crosstalk 00:14:42] plus 175.

Mark O’Haire:

Yeah. There’s little faith in that Leeds defense right now. So, yeah, I wouldn’t put anyone off it to be honest. I’m pro Palace in most markets here.

Gordon Watson:

Yeah. I don’t blame you. The numbers seem to be enticing, Stinch, are you interested in that over two and a half at plus 100? I can see this maybe being two one to Palace and maybe I can see it being a two two, but the over certainly looks like a runner when both teams turn up and think they can win the game.

Mark Stinchcombe:

Yeah. I think the overs is similar to Brighton v Leeds at the weekend, I really wanted to back overs in that game, but just need that Leeds first choice 11 or Bamford basically, you just need Bamford back to have confidence in taking overs in Leeds games. So, that would be my only reservation there. So, yeah, if you fancied goals, I’d definitely go down the route that you just suggested, take the palace team goals. Because as far as I’m aware, they haven’t got any major injury concerns and the players that are contributing to their goals are all available.

Mark Stinchcombe:

And it’s quite good to see Benteke back, firing again. I think this is very similar to a game we discussed a few weeks ago when Leeds played Wolves and Leeds were priced up as I think a similar price. And we took Wolves on the handicap. So, I think it makes perfect sense what Mark’s saying with his bet. I was just a bit disappointed with Palace at the weekend, so that was my reason for not getting involved. But, yeah, I think if you want to oppose Leeds because they are still missing Bamford it makes complete sense to go with the bet that Mark’s mentioned, because I think Crystal Palace are overpriced given Leeds’ ongoing struggles.

Gordon Watson:

MD in the chat saying over two and a half goals is his banker at minus 110. I’ve just said over two and a half goals is at plus 100, where are you shopping, MD? And Astute Chaos, who loves a little dig, said, “It’s pick them here in America. We understand.” Yes. I knew that you understood AC, but the Europeans, the Asians and the Australasians and the Africans, obviously we’re around the world, so we are not just for the American audience, so we have to educate them and I will continue to do so as long as people need educating.

Gordon Watson:

Okay. Have a little look then, press your buttons, let’s see what we’ve got please. Have we got any… Okay. So, it’s just Crystal Palace pick them and plus 0.5 at minus 130 and just for Astute Chaos. That means that if you win the game, you win both bets, but if you draw, then you get half winnings, half push. So, basically you just want palace to win or just avoid defeat.

Gordon Watson:

Let’s move on, because I think everyone, every man and his dog in the next game are probably on the same page. We’re going to the South Coast. There’ll be no snow here, I promise you that. It’s Southampton versus Leicester. Let me just take the clock back a little bit. And Leicester won nine nil in this game. I know Southampton went down to 10 men after 12 minutes, but there’s no excuses for it. Southampton plus 155, Leicester plus 185, draw plus 240, but let’s look at the overs and unders. Over two and a half goals at minus 125, under at plus 105. And there’s quite a few people, Stinch, that will fancy Leicester pick them plus 100.

Mark Stinchcombe:

Yeah. Maybe after their attacking performance on Sunday, still go back to having massive reservations about them defensively. I think Mark’s bet one after about, what, 20 minutes, on Sunday, was it, Mark? Both teams are scoring overs. So, that was quite a nice pickup, considering the goal line there was set at three. So, that’s good, sniffing around the old value. But, yeah, now we’re back to 2.5 goal line in the Leicester game, you know what’s going to happen, Flash, you’ve got to take the overs.

Mark Stinchcombe:

Just don’t complicate it as we keep going back to, I think the beauty, and I say it again and again, the beauty of taking overs in Leicester’s matches is they’re just as capable of winning three nil as they are losing three nil, so you don’t have to worry about who contributes to the total. Because I think either team, I know Southampton haven’t been scoring many, but I would be confident enough in getting at least a couple of goals here.

Mark Stinchcombe:

And then just hope that one of the teams can get enough to get the third, but 21 of Leicester’s last 28 Premier League games have been over 2.5 goals. You’ve got a 75% strike rate and then you’ve got odds being offered here that suggests it’s only got a 56% chance. So, huge, huge disparity there in the price, just three clean sheets in Leicester’s last 28 games, even though it is against Southampton, who have been struggling in the forward line.

Mark Stinchcombe:

Southampton should be confident of creating good chances against this Leicester team. And then hopefully they can take one or two, and Leicester’s over this 28 games has been 98 goals in that run. So, that’s 3.5 goals per game, yet we’ve got a goal line of 2.5. So, if this was in the Bundesliga, I think that Leicester’s goal line would be artificially probably a quarter or a half higher all the time. So, yeah, very, very shocked that we’ve gone back to the 2.5 line.

Gordon Watson:

Mark O’Haire, it’s got to be both teams to score and over surely. I can see this being maybe a Leicester win, three one, even Southampton. The thing is if Leicester get themselves in front, we’re going to know that we’re going to have plenty of goals, if Southampton get themselves in front, do you think they get nervous and try and shut up shop?

Mark O’Haire:

Yeah, it probably is. It’s an interesting conundrum for both teams because we’ve put the knife into Leicester a few times this season or at least I have, because I don’t think they’ve been good enough at all to warrant any faith in any market against any team at the moment, particularly defensively. Even if you look at the weekend, the game against Watford, which they did win, but it was chaotic. It was entertaining, but very, very chaotic, and Watford without their best attacking outlet, and they still had 17 shots at the King Power. That’s not a good look for Leicester at all.

Gordon Watson:

They cannot control midfield, can they?

Mark O’Haire:

No, [crosstalk 00:20:38].

Gordon Watson:

We attack, you attack.

Mark O’Haire:

Exactly. And you look at the spaces that they offer up in the midfield at the moment. It’s a thankless task for someone like Wilfred Ndidi who doesn’t look fit or doesn’t look himself this season, and you look at the defense, and Johnny Evans and Söyüncü, just nowhere near the standards that they set over the last couple of seasons.

Mark O’Haire:

So, Stinch mentioned that the three clean sheets in 28 Premier League games, two of those were against relegated clubs. This season, two clean sheets in 19, one of which was in the cup against Millwall. Yeah, so defensively, there’s a huge amount of concern for me there about Leicester. However, as we’ve said numerous times, they do have the quality to forward areas to cause problems to any team in this division. And I think that’s the beauty about Leicester at the moment is they’ve got the offense to basically knock on the top six door, but the defense which really is probably bottom six at the moment.

Mark O’Haire:

So, Vardy and Madison making key contributions on Sunday. That’s very welcome for Leicester fans. You’ve got Barnes and Lookman playing well. And then you look at the bench, they didn’t even use Perez, Daka, or Iheanacho either. So, they’re not exactly short of firepower. So, yeah, I do like goals, Southampton beaten four nil at Liverpool, many teams are going to lose to Liverpool four nil at Anfield this season, but they did create a couple of good opportunities.

Mark O’Haire:

Second half, they showed a bit more to the game, Hasenhüttl said first half he got his tactics wrong, got his selection wrong, but they rectified that at half time and they looked all right, I know the game is gone, but they’ll be out to not just get a response from that defeat, but also get a response to that nine nil as well. So, yeah, matches at St. Mary’s this season have not been a whole lot of fun, but I think that goes out the window when Leicester are in town, it tends to be good entertainment. So, yeah, happy to board the overs bus and get goals onside too.

Gordon Watson:

I expected them to go back to revert to type by I think 442. Who goes to Anfield and plays three center halves for the first time? It’s like one of them, you’re not prepared, they’re not used to it. And then they’re down in like the second minute it went 442, second half, they looked totally better. Dare I say it, they lost four nil, I thought Liverpool were really sloppy.

Gordon Watson:

I thought that they gave the ball away, I thought Trent Alexander-Arnold was dossing around, and it’s amazing the gulf between Liverpool, but you go three nil down and that’s it, you know that the game’s over. Yeah, I like goals here. I think both teams score. I think that they defend deep, Southampton, which then means it’s going to be end to end you, you break, we break. So, I’m more than happy to go with both teams to score and over at minus 110, over two and half goals at minus 125 and Mark’s followed me in, minus 110.

Gordon Watson:

I can tell you also that that was plus 100 less than 24 hours ago, so it’s been very, very popular right across. MD saying the Alex classic, which is obviously both teams scoring over two and a half goals is plus 100 in places, you better get it now because it’s going very, very quickly.

Gordon Watson:

Next game is a game that we always used to look for. Whether you was an Everton, Liverpool fan, or just a neutral, it’s the Merseyside Derby, and great memories throughout the years. But these two sides are polar opposites at the moment. You’ve got Everton versus Liverpool. It’s Everton at plus 650 at home, which is absolutely gigantic if you’re an Everton fan and you like an upset in a Derby, Liverpool minus 245, you’re not going to get rich there. And the draw at plus 400. So, where are we going to find value in this game, Mark O’Haire? Because for me, it’s the visitors, they win, how do they win? And how do we put that into value?

Mark O’Haire:

Yeah, I found this one difficult. Everything points to an away win, and a Liverpool win by a distance. They’re flying high, they’re scoring two goals I think every game across all competitions this season bar one, which is absolutely insane considering we’re moving into December. Everton have won once and nine and that was against Norwich, they’ve taken two points from their last seven and have failed to score in four of the last six.

Mark O’Haire:

Just one Derby win in the last 20 Premier League meeting as well, they’re missing their talisman in Calvert-Lewin, Mina is still out as well, but they do get Richarlison back and Doucouré [inaudible 00:24:37], a welcome return against Brentford at the weekend. But, yeah, they are very vulnerable coming into this game, but I know it’s a horrible old cliché, but form does tend to go out of the window when these Merseyside Derbies come around.

Gordon Watson:

It does, especially for these two, yeah.

Mark O’Haire:

Yeah, because Liverpool admittedly were shorter, or have been shorter than they are, or, sorry, probably haven’t been as short as they have been, going to Goodison Park this week. But I remember when they won the title, they went to Goodison Park having won, what is it, 28 of their first 30 games, and they still played out a nil nil draw and if you look over the last nine games now at Goodison Park, there’s been eight draws, four of which have ended nil nil and the other game Liverpool won by exactly one goal.

Mark O’Haire:

So, they don’t tend to have it easy, and the vast majority of those, Liverpool have been really strong favorites. So, regardless of where Everton are at, they do tend to raise themselves, and do tend to be able to turn this game into a bit of a dogfight, and I think Mersey Side Derbies recently have been pretty tame. Not tame affairs, but pretty dull affairs I should say.

Mark O’Haire:

And I think Benitez will be well aware of the situation, he won’t want to go toe to toe with Liverpool either. So, I don’t like reading too much into the head to head, unless there are big Derby games and you can see familiar narratives emerging, which I think you can do in this match. So, I’d have no problem with people wanting to get Liverpool onside here, it makes complete sense, complete intelligence, however there’s just that caveat about Everton, who just tend to give Liverpool a bit of a ride when they go to Goodison Park, so for me it’s one to sit out, but I’m happy to wave people through who want to get Liverpool onside.

Gordon Watson:

Yeah, and if you wanted to have a manager that’s going to get you into a tight game and maybe get something out of the ordinary, then it is Benitez. Listen, it’s 451, it’s backs against the wall, break, set pieces, and let’s see if VAR can throw us a gift, Stinch, because for me, I think it’s two nil, three one. I’m not even sure that Everton score, especially with the likes of Gray and Townsend and Rondón, come on now, against this Liverpool side, it’s minus one and a half at plus 110 for me.

Mark Stinchcombe:

How is Salomón Rondón a Premier League footballer? He’s past his sell by date, no?

Gordon Watson:

Yeah. I must agree.

Mark Stinchcombe:

I’m surprised Cenk Tosun doesn’t get a run, because I quite like him to be fair, and he’s got a decent goal record for Everton, and he scored a few when he was at Palace on loan as well, and he always seems to pop up for a goal when he was playing for Turkey, so I’m surprised he can’t get a game, but I don’t expect Benitez to chuck him in.

Mark Stinchcombe:

Benitez had Rondón at Newcastle, had Rondón in China, so he obviously likes him even though he obviously doesn’t score any goals. Yeah, I think this is kind of similar to Man United, Liverpool, we discussed earlier in the season. Everything points to a comfortable, easy Liverpool win, but as I say, we all keep coming back to the Derby element and Mark rightly pointed out, historically it hasn’t been a walk in the park for Liverpool at Goodison Park.

Mark Stinchcombe:

There’s been some comfortable home wins, but at Goodison it’s been a bit tighter and obviously fans are back this season as well. But Everton, I think without Calvert-Lewin, they really, really lack a consistent goal threat, and Liverpool actually, for all of what you mentioned before about being a bit sloppy on Saturday, completely agree. I think after going into such an early lead and basically getting the game wrapped up so early, I think focus immediately shifted to this game, so they started resting and taking players off early.

Mark Stinchcombe:

So, the fact that Liverpool have actually kept eight clean sheets in their 13 games this season, Everton have failed to score in the last three, I think maybe Liverpool win to nil, which is plus 150. But then at the same time, you could be even maybe a little bit more clever and take Everton not to score at plus 130, just in case of the nil nil, or maybe even one step further and both teams score no at plus 100, just in case there is, as you say, a Benitez masterclass, if you like.

Mark Stinchcombe:

But you’re absolutely right, the method of trying to extract the best bet here is to try and get Liverpool onside somehow, but the odds are just so short, I think it’s best probably to just swerve and watch it as a neutral.

Gordon Watson:

Yeah, swerve, I’m not swerving, I’m jumping all over this. And I tell you what, I’ve not put it down as my officials, but I will be having a little bit of the minus 2.5 in case they go completely crazy, because I just don’t see how they can control the game and break on them without leaving the backdoor open for Mané, Sala, Jota, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain looks sprightly, you’ve got the two full-backs that are going to push them back.

Gordon Watson:

So, basically, you’ve got two match ups, you’ve got [Dinya 00:29:21] versus Alexander Arnold, and you’ve got Séamus Coleman against Robertson. I can see them two full-backs for Everton hardly getting over the halfway line because they will not want to leave that backdoor open, so for me, I’ve got to get involved, and I’ve gone with Liverpool minus 1.5 at plus 110, I just think that they win the game two nil, three one, maybe three nil, maybe even I think they go bonkers, I really do. I think there’s a possibility that they go bonkers, and I wouldn’t put anyone off of maybe half time, full time with Liverpool.

Gordon Watson:

But it’s Liverpool all the way, Sean Mack saying Liverpool an under 4.5 at minus 120. I also see someone in there saying, “It reminds me of the weekend when everyone and their mama was on Chelsea.” Well, let me tell you a little story about that, I put in my Chelsea, Man United as both teams to score an over, and my boss, Natalie, said to me, “What are you doing, Chelsea, Man United?” I said, “Both teams will score an over.”

Gordon Watson:

You know what she said to me? “Looks like a one one to me.” You know what I said? “You jinx, you absolute jinx, you know what’s going to happen now, it’s going to be one one.”

Mark Stinchcombe:

Just as an alternative bet, Flash, [inaudible 00:30:30], was looking in the additional markets. You can back Everton to have over 2.5 cards at plus 145, and we know that Liverpool are going to dominate the ball, and there is the Derby factor as well, and Everton have got a lot of tenacious players in the team. And the referee is Paul Tierney, and it’s Christmas come early, it’s the 1st of December, he’ll have already sent his Christmas cards out because he’s got so many yellow cards to dish out in December.

Mark Stinchcombe:

Just in his recent games he’s given out four, five, three, and six. And one of those games was Liverpool v Man City, and he gave out six yellow cards in that game. So, if you’re looking for an alternative bet, I think that one looks quite good at plus 145 for Everton to get three or more cards.

Gordon Watson:

Yeah, I don’t expect the market is probably over four and a half anyway, is it, Mark?

Mark O’Haire:

I have not seen to be honest, I did see that Tierney was the referee, and he was one of the referees who even through the pandemic was returning consistently good card figures, where most referees were on the down, he was continuing to sustain really decent figures. So, yeah, I really would be surprised, I think that’s quite a big price actually on Everton to collect three or more. Liverpool aren’t usually the ones to contribute to that kind of market, it’s very much quite one sided in this Derby.

Gordon Watson:

Yeah, Astute Chaos is saying, “Flash, why didn’t you play the correct score?” Well, because I thought it was going to be two one to Chelsea, if I’m 100% honest with you. And after the weekend I’ve just had, if I said to you it’s raining, you could go out in your swimming trunks, because I’ve got everything completely wrong. So, yeah, don’t take anything from me, but this is a new week and we’re positive that we’re going to have a great week as well, because we’ve got a banker involved and I’ve got some plus money involved, so I’ve got to be happy.

Gordon Watson:

Let’s go on to the final game, because this is another game where it’s going to polarize a lot of people. It’s the old banger, Man United versus Arsenal at Old Trafford, this is the game that used to create all the cards, not so sure they’ve got the same personnel now. It’s Man United at minus 105, trap or gift springs to mind. Arsenal, plus 270, I’d expect Arsenal to be plus 375, so they’ve given Arsenal a little bit more of a knees up.

Gordon Watson:

But the draw at plus 270, Mark O’Haire, team totals come in here, unders and overs, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s nil nil.

Mark O’Haire:

Yeah, the last point you made there is probably where I’m veering towards. But I think the news this week, we knew it was last week, but obviously the news on Monday that Ralf Rangnick has been officially appointed as the interim coach, but we don’t know whether he’s going to be in charge for this game because his work permit hasn’t arrived, and it just adds a bit more confusion to the game because if he is in charge, I would expect something a bit different from United.

Mark O’Haire:

In fairness, if Carrick is in charge, I’d expect something different to what we’ve seen in the first two games against Villarreal and Chelsea, because both are very much about staying solid and trying to stay in the game and grind. I didn’t think they were particularly good in either game, Villarreal, David De Gea was their man of the match, and on Sunday they had three shots and were out shot 24 three, and two of those three shots came from Chelsea’s errors.

Mark O’Haire:

If you look at the shots in the box count, they lost 17 one at Stamford Bridge, and in fairness to them, they defended pretty well considering there was no Maguire or Varane, and I think Bie and Lindelöf played pretty well.

Gordon Watson:

That’s why, that’s why they defended well.

Mark O’Haire:

I knew you were going to get that dig in. But, yeah, you can’t carry on that way, you can’t lose the shot count 24 three and expect to continue to pick up points, so we need to see something a bit different from Man United here, whoever is in charge. I think we will, they’re at Old Trafford, there’ll be a buoyant crowd coming to the game, expecting to see United play on the front foot.

Mark O’Haire:

But it’s just not Mikel Arteta’s way or Arsenal’s way under him to play in that end to end manner, so I expect Arsenal to come here looking to be solid, looking to be reasonably pragmatic and cautious, particularly after being embarrassed by Man City and Liverpool away already this season. I know United aren’t in the same category, but they do have the firepower in forward areas if things were to click, to do something like that to anyone.

Mark O’Haire:

But on Arsenal, yeah, I just don’t see their matches, I can never see Arsenal matches going over. I’m always quite nervous about backing overs or pro goals in Arsenal games. So far this season they’ve had overs in just five of 13, and away from home, the only two that went over were at Anfield and Etihad. You exclude those games, and the actual expected goals of matches are down at 2.2, and that’s despite going to Burnley, Brentford, Leicester and Brighton.

Mark O’Haire:

So, there’s definitely a focus on them being tighter on their travels, and we’ve talked about their improvements defensively, not just in terms of Ramstad and the actual defense, but having Partey in front of that defense too makes a big difference. But they’re losing a lot in the final third as well, so they’ve only scored three away goals this season. Norwich have only scored twice, and if you look, they’ve failed to score in four of six away games, they’ve created the fewest away big chances, and, again, only Norwich have generated a lower expected goals figure away from home.

Mark O’Haire:

Of the three goals they’ve scored away, two of which came from set pieces, so it’s never really a nice watch opposing goals when there’s a lot of quality forward players on the pitch, but I just think the goal line is set a little bit high. I would rather know who’s in charge before really completely committing to this, but I think if you go into the alternative markets, there’s a way in which we can get under two and three quarter goals onside at a very backable price, which means if there’s exactly three goals-

Gordon Watson:

Well, funnily enough, I can tell you that the markets have already moved. Man United are now plus 100 on the money line with Bet US. Over two and a half goals is now at minus 130, so there’s money coming in on this under, because the under two and a half is at plus 110 now, not plus 115. So, I’m just going to… I wanted to have a little look at the props and just see what price I’m going to get. Now, please bear with me here while I’m not looking down the camera, because I’m looking at the correct score of maybe coupling up nil nil and one one. And nil nil is plus 1,200, and one one is plus 650, which they’re massive, Stinch, aren’t they?

Mark Stinchcombe:

I certainly like the sound of the nil nil there, I think that one one sounds about right, and you probably would rather just back the draw money line at plus 270, albeit maybe if you can’t see if being two two or three three, then, yeah, go down that route. But I’m in complete agreement in terms of Mark with everything he said, I just think it won’t be an open game that the market suggests it’s going to be.

Mark Stinchcombe:

And both teams have actually been scoring that many goals or haven’t been that proficient in front of goal this season. If you take out United’s four one and five one victories against Newcastle and Leeds, who didn’t play in a defensive manner at all and left spaces galore, United have only actually scored 12 goals in their 11 Premier League games, and Arsenal themselves have only scored 15 in 13. And what you mentioned before about this used to be a huge, massive game, et cetera, it’s still built up like that, but we know that these teams aren’t any longer contesting for the title and more contesting for European spots.

Mark Stinchcombe:

But it still plays out in that cagey manner, and actually the last five head to heads between the two of them have seen just seven goals, with unders 2.5 winning in all of them. So, if you take under 2.75, the only way your bet is going to lose is if there’s four or more goals in the game. So, yeah, that’s the route I’m going down.

Gordon Watson:

How does that work? What happens if there’s three goals?

Mark Stinchcombe:

So, if there’s three goals, half your bet would be returned and the other half would lose, so you’ve got half a security still there.

Gordon Watson:

Okay.

Mark Stinchcombe:

But, yeah, to be fair I really like your nil nil shout as well, I think that’s definitely worth 0.1 of a unit or something like that to go alongside.

Gordon Watson:

Well, I was going at a half unit because, and I’ll tell you why, it’s because I don’t see there being three goals, right? So, I’m going to go under two and a half goals at plus 110. So, if I have 100 on a plus 110, I’m going to win 110, if I then put on 50 and it’s not nil nil but it’s one nil or one one, then I’m going to pick up plus 60 on the game. So, I’m still going to win $60.

Gordon Watson:

I did this a couple of weeks ago with Rayo Vallecano, basically it was plus 100 for both teams to score, but it was plus 160 for both teams to score an over, and I thought, well, I’ve got a shot to nothing here, I know that both teams are going to score, and Vallecano won three one, so I picked up the plus 100 and the plus 160, but really all I was ever doing was putting the plus 100, basically I was just using their money to make more.

Gordon Watson:

But I like the plus 1,200, I don’t think we can put anyone off of the draw neither, which is a great value. I think we’re all in agreement on the unders, let’s have a little look at the official picks, I think it’s a very tight game. Draw half time is the other one, and maybe draw after 75 minutes and not worry about the last 20, look at that, under two and a half stroke three at minus 120 for Mark O’Haire, and under two and a half stroke three at minus 120. So, is that both of you are under 2.75?

Mark O’Haire:

Yeah.

Gordon Watson:

Yeah, [crosstalk 00:39:57].

Mark Stinchcombe:

Flash, what you could add in, you could also back under 1.5 goals as well, so if it does finish one nil either way, obviously as you say, you’re still going to make some cash as well. I think one goal exactly in the match is plus 450, so if you were to take the plus money on under two and a half, the exact one goal at plus 450, and nil nil at 1,200, if it finishes nil nil, that’s Christmas paid for.

Gordon Watson:

Yeah, well, unless you’re going to actually spend quite a bit of money on decent presents, Stinch, and don’t be so tight and get people just socks and pants and a wooly hat. There’s no need for a wooly hat here, I’ll tell you what, even if I just bought someone socks, pants, and a wooly hat, it cost me $500 in Costa Rica.

Gordon Watson:

Okay, listen, what we’ll do is I have to remind you to follow us on Twitter at BetUS sportsbook_Soccer because if there’s any updates, if there’s any changes to our official picks, or there are any additions, then that is where you’re going to find them, so make sure also that you subscribe, especially if you enjoyed this video, because we want to get to 3,000 subscribers as quickly as possible.

Gordon Watson:

Also, ring the bell, ring the bell means that you’ll never miss any content again and we are going into sports season. It’s going to get absolutely mad, because we’ve got NBA and NCAAB. The NCAAF is coming to a climax, what a final we’re going to be seeing there in a few weeks. NHL, and obviously NFL, and then the MLB will start.

Gordon Watson:

Okay, have we got any questions in? MD, “Can you mention the Spurs match?” No. MD, “Fellows, what do you think about Leicester and over one and a half at plus 235?” Yeah, I can see Leicester winning the game two one, gents?

Mark O’Haire:

I can also see them losing two one as well, that’s the issue, [crosstalk 00:41:42].

Gordon Watson:

Exactly, both teams to score an over is the way to go there. Okay, Stinch, you can mention Spurs.

Mark Stinchcombe:

Yeah, I’ve just not been very impressed so far, it’s early days obviously under Conte’s reign, but the first half performance against Leeds, they could’ve been two or three goals down. I think they’re quite fortunate to turn around that game in the second half, relying on Reguilón and [inaudible 00:42:07] for goals, that’s not something that’s going to be sustainable in terms of relying on defensive midfielders and wing-backs to contribute.

Mark Stinchcombe:

And against Everton they were very, very turgid, and then after those two games they lost to Mura, who I’ve never heard of, in the Europa Conference League, so I think things haven’t quite clicked yet under Conte. Longterm, I do think they will be fine, absolutely, but I’m not getting involved with them, they’re very short priced against Brentford, I think minus 140. And that’s a Brentford side, they’ve only lost once away from home this season, and they’ve already-

Gordon Watson:

And scored goals.

Mark Stinchcombe:

Yeah, they’ve already won at West Ham and they’ve already won at Wolves, both of whom are above Spurs in the League, and you could argue that current team ability in terms of performances, both Wolves and West Ham have definitely been more consistent than Spurs. So, yeah, I think if you want to bet there, I would probably side with Brentford plus one around about minus 125.

Gordon Watson:

Yeah, and someone in the chat is saying, “Arsenal always struggle when they’re playing up against a big team.” They’re not playing up against a big team, they’re playing against Man United, yes, Man United, they’re playing against a big club, but not a big team. The other thing I would say quickly on Spurs and Brentford is Brentford are strong and they’re energetic, and I wouldn’t go near Spurs if you paid me, and that’s coming from someone who actually went with Spurs on over one and a half and got away with murder. So, I will not be putting my hand in that dog’s mouth.

Gordon Watson:

Okay, Waz, no, not UK time, Eastern. See where I say 2:30 EST, why would you say UK? That’s Eastern time, 2:30, 1:30 Costa Rican. I think that’s 7:30 UK time tonight. Okay, that’s Serie A with [Mina 00:43:56] and Matty Ice, and by the way it’s Matty Ice’s birthday today, so make sure you join us in the chat and wish him a very, very happy birthday.

Gordon Watson:

I think it’s just time for me now to remind you, please, to subscribe and ring the bell and if you have a little look at our official picks, because they will be popping up now. Astute, West Ham, Brighton? Brighton have got a good record at West Ham by the way, there’s your banker, in yellow. Last time it was yellow, as I just said to you, it was Spurs and over one and a half, I’m a lot more confident about this one, Newcastle money line minus 115 will be getting the absolute energy of my pocket.

Gordon Watson:

And I’m going to go with the nil nil, come on Liverpool. Come on Liverpool plus 110. Mark, have you got a favorite of your three? Which one do you like best?

Mark O’Haire:

Probably Palace with the plus, I think it should be a draw no bet game, and it’s not, so I like Palace to avoid defeat at Leeds.

Gordon Watson:

I don’t even need to ask you, Stinch, it’s the top one, isn’t it? It pays every week, honestly, you’ve got a direct debit.

Mark Stinchcombe:

I think that game is taking place on Tuesday as well, and they are spread across Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday, so hopefully, yeah, get a nice early winner in the week to kick things off.

Gordon Watson:

Yeah, that’s exactly why I’ve gone with Newcastle twice, well, basically three units is going in that Newcastle game, so I will be glued. Everyone in the chat, please, press your thumbs up on the way out, at the moment we’re about 64%, so if we can get that up to above 75%, I’d be totally happy. From Mark and from Stinch, make sure you join us on Thursday when we go back to the normal time.

Gordon Watson:

Hey, from everyone at Bet US, may all your bets be winners. Thanks for your support, we really appreciate it, you take care. Check out the information about the Premier League TV show.

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