Premier League Picks Matchday 17 | Premier League Odds, Soccer Predictions & Free Tips

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Four European leagues covered weekly. All matches previewed by the best betting experts. Predictions and match analysis hosted by ex Premier League soccer player, Gordon Flash Watson. Subscribe, hit that bell button, and never miss a show. BetUS, where the game begins.

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As we start, the tough Christmas schedule, Matchday 17, has a complete series of midweek matchups. While other European leagues prepare for the winter break, the Premier League pushes up its schedule with each team playing five games in the next 20 days. This phase might make or break your season with a strong run of form driving your team at the table, or a major injury to your team’s key player costing you the second half. So if you’re unsure about your picks, then stick around to get our experts picks for this Premier League and of course our soccer predictions for Matchday 17.

Gordon Flash Watson:

Welcome to BetUS I’m Flash and it’s Premier League, its Matchday 17, off the back of a winning banker, plus money winners, and our first parlay of the year. Only took 16 weeks, but we got the parlay up at plus 148. Now we are America’s favorite sportsbook. So please subscribe. We are going for 4,000 subscribers. Hopefully we’ll hit it maybe just after Christmas, unless we have a massive, massive deluge.

Gordon Flash Watson:

But remember you must ring the bell because if you ring the bell we can notify you, and you’ll never miss any content again, which is going to be absolutely paramount over the Christmas period because they may not just be in our normal slot of 10:00 Eastern on a Thursday because the games come thick and fast. Today is going to be all about the award winning owner of WeLoveBetting in Mark O’Haire, and European odds compiler who’s been very busy this morning with the Champions League draw, twice, and he’s a sniffer of extreme value. And he’d be known as Stinch because obviously I don’t want two Marks, but Stinch, it’s been an eventful day for you already with this fuss of the champions league draw?

Mark Stinch:

Yeah, definitely. I mean, I know we’re obviously discussing their Premier League today, but certainly interesting to do two sets of odds for a set of games. It was completely redundant in the end. Thankfully, Chelsea drew Lille again, so that was one less job. But focus on the Premier League now, and what I think is quite an interesting coupon. So it’s interesting to see what you guys think as well.

Gordon Flash Watson:

Yeah. Well, Mark Stinch thinks that it’s an interesting coupon. I certainly don’t but make sure if you do then get yourself in the chat, and because we are going to need some help here, I promise you. We have five games to cover, but if you’ve got tips, you’ve got questions then definitely get them in because I tell you what if ever there was a team game, this is it. This is the team week Mark O’Haire, because I think that this card stinks.

Mark O’Haire:

I agree, two on Monday. Sorry Stinch. I think it’s a really tricky card. Some really difficult games to unpack, but I think I found two, one of which I’m very tempted to upgrade to a banker, so yeah.

Gordon Flash Watson:

Whoa. Would that be your first of the season?

Mark O’Haire:

Yeah, it would be yeah, but yeah, I’m still contemplating wherever I’ve got the balls to kind of move that far, but we’ll see.

Gordon Flash Watson:

Having you banker and for like 17th week of the season, when we both say, “This is scandalous,” I mean, look at what happened at the weekend, Man United win one-nil, Man City win one-nil, Liverpool win one-nil. I’m wondering if there’s a trend there, and we’ve got to start looking unders because the games are coming thick and fast. Also we could expect an interrupted card Mark O’Haire because there’s question marks over Spurs and Villa, and now I’m hearing the Brentford Man United game could be in doubt.

Mark O’Haire:

Yes. So Man United have closed parts of their training ground, particularly the areas for the first team for at least 24 hours. They’ve reported a couple of positive tests, so they’re discussing whether they should be taking the opportunity to cancel the game against Brentford in midweek. I know they haven’t traveled down to London just yet, and they’ve delayed that as well. We also got Spurs obviously. Aston Villa have reported some positive tests. Brighton have got some illness in the camp. We’re not sure if that’s COVID related or not, but yeah, I mean, with the Omicron variant now getting kind of a bit out of hand in the UK, I suppose it’s now going to be quite a kind of regular feature of the show, talking about potential postponements and COVID cases again which reversed 12 months ago and we were doing the same. So yeah, it’s quite frustrating.

Gordon Flash Watson:

Stinch, how much do the soccer odds compilers need to be on their toes? Because one minute you’re thinking you’ve got a full squad you’re going to be playing against, then it might not be. The few stars might be out because we don’t know if it’s going to be the stars that are out until the lineup check.

Mark Stinch:

Yes. It’s kind of twofold. I mean, you can react to the news that that comes out. But sometimes the… I mean, it’s like a player’s personal medical history and I don’t think we even know… There’s a public record of who’s been vaccinated, for example, in terms of Premier League players, so that would play a part. So yeah, I would say that you kind of move the price if there’s somebody that’s out that makes a big impact. But then at the same time it’s quite easy just to follow the money really because at the end of the day the big syndicates and the big Asian betters they have a lot of money because they’re very good at gambling. So it basically pays to listen to what they’re doing basically by seeing where they put their money down.

Gordon Flash Watson:

Stinch, is that the reason we see no real value to the odd man in the street of Liverpool Man United, Man City, they be the top three?

Mark Stinch:

In terms of what, popularity?

Gordon Flash Watson:

Yeah. Well, yeah. From the big guns in the Far East.

Mark Stinch:

Yeah, I mean, there was a trend probably about six, seven years ago where Liverpool weren’t doing very well and were only a sort of top seven team, but their odds used to go off quite short regularly. And that felt as though, not through any particular science basically just because a lot of Asian betters were Liverpool fans. But I think that’s few and far between basically the money that comes from Asia and these syndicates, it is shrewd money. But often it will only come on the day of the game because the limits are a bit too low to get involved. So if you show your hand when the limits are lower then you’ll get a lot of people that will blindly follow and continue to reduce the price overnight. So often that big money you won’t see until the morning of the game.

Gordon Flash Watson:

Okay. We’re talking the money, let’s have a little look at the records because we’ve been in the money in the last few shows. Long may that continue. Total as a team is 7.75. The one I’m most proud of is the parlay, one out of one at plus 148. Also, the numbers are there but if we duplicate a winner, so myself and Mark O’Haire last week we both had Brentford, both teams scoring over, but I do not put all three units onto our total because that’s not the case. As a team we only won one, but it does go on the individuals. And also that myself and Stinch, we both went with Norwich not to score and got very, very lucky. But we’re happy, right? Let’s kick on.

Gordon Flash Watson:

It’s Matchday 17 in the Premier League, it is very tricky. So it’s going to be pens and paper down, and let’s start off with Brentford versus Man United. Brentford score two late goals to get the victory at home against Watford on Friday night, they’re at plus 325, Man United minus 125, that might be good for some, but remember there is a massive caution about this game, the draw is at plus 300 and the total is under or over two and a half. Mark O’Haire, take it away because I’m not so sure that Brentford are going to trouble Man United to be honest.

Mark O’Haire:

Yeah. I mean, well, it’s a difficult one to unpack. I think originally I wanted to be with Man United here. I think you can get them at about minus 115 now because of the news that’s come out today about the COVID issues. They’ve gone off a shorter price at Southampton and Wolves this season. They’re around the same price as they are here against West Ham. And they’re obviously much, much shorter when they played Watford and Norwich, two newly promoted teams who have also come up with Brentford. So on that basis, you’d say there must be some value here in backing United, but they were ranted at Watford under Solskjaer and they were lucky to beat Norwich at the weekend. David de Gea was the man of the match again, and the results have been improving, and there’s been a bit of a kind of rebuild of confidence and momentum now.

Mark O’Haire:

They’ve won four of six on beating games since Solskjaer left. But I think with the eye test you’re still kind of struggling to kind of get them really on side. Didn’t really deserve a point against Chelsea. Didn’t really deserve to beat Villarreal. The Young Boys’ game was irrelevant. At Palace, they were a bit better, but I think the media over blew that win a little bit and the Arsenal game could easily have gone either way. So I’m finding it hard to get a firm read on United and where they actually are. But this in theory should be a winnable match for them. Their top level is far superior to Brentford’s top level, but there’s always some buts. We don’t know the COVID issues. We know Lindelof went off early at the weekend, Varane is still out.

Mark O’Haire:

So there’s issues there, but then you look at Brentford, who have made things awkward for the bigger teams. Chelsea, Liverpool, Arsenal have all been through the miller really at Brentford so far this season, but they’re weakened too. So no Ivan Toney, no David Raya between the sticks, Pinnock, probably their best center half this season is out with COVID as well. So they’re down to the bare bones at center back. They have to play a midfielder in that position at the weekend. So, they’re missing the best striker as well, but all the underlying metrics so far this season, no matter what data set you look at, they are a pretty much top six, top eight across the board. So yeah, I think they can cause this United team problems, Norwich did at the weekend, but United I thought were really labored and really sluggish at Carrow Road.

Mark O’Haire:

So I’d be surprised if they kind of put together two back to back subdued performances, I do expect Rangnick to sort of chop and change. We don’t know who’s fit and who’s available, and who’s got COVID or whatnot. But if they do go there, they’ve got such a big squad. There are enough players, particularly in forward areas to shuffle that pack and produce an 11 which is good enough to go and win this match. So yeah. I was quite keen on betting online for the United, but just the unknown of not knowing who’s fit, who’s available, or whatnot. So I’ve left it alone in the end.

Gordon Flash Watson:

Yeah. I can see why, because Arsenal went there, failed to keep a clean sheet, as did Liverpool, as did Chelsea, but Man United seem to be trying to build from the back and have not quite got it right, even though back to back clean sheets. So that tells me Brentford are not going on full steam ahead going forward because they’ve got injuries. So Brentford not to score plus 165, and also the under is plus 100 Stinch. I’m seeing Man United just going there, defending deep so they can control the game and everything happens in front of them. I see this as not being a very exciting game, but the atmosphere will be great. But a plus 165, this Brentford comes into the Norwich category for me.

Mark Stinch:

Yeah. But I think you already sort of readily admitted that Norwich probably should have scored and we’ll happily admit that Brentford are better than Norwich, so.

Gordon Flash Watson:

But they haven’t got their goal scorer, and also they don’t actually sling the ball in the box. They try and play through the lines. That’s the difference, whereas Norwich put the ball in the box like 20 times. Now, okay. Brentford could have a training session today and just say, right? “We are going to just get it out of our feet and stick it in the box.” But they haven’t actually got the same threat as like Norwich in the football. Now I thought Norwich is very well spirited, but Brentford at plus 165, I think it’s just the numbers. You’ve got to say, Man United, back to back clean sheets, by hook or by crook, are going to go to Brentford and think, “Okay, let’s just get out of here with a nil-nil or a one-nil, two-nil.”

Mark Stinch:

Yeah. I mean, if you fancy that, put your money down [crosstalk 00:12:58].

Gordon Flash Watson:

You don’t then. What would be your reasons for not?

Mark Stinch:

Your record speaks for itself. So who am I to disagree in that regard?

Gordon Flash Watson:

Yeah. I get my record off of your… See this is where I’m sly. I’m a bit sneaky. I listen to you, right? I listen to you and few weeks gone by and I store it so that when that situation pops up, that’s when I jump on board. So really I’m just hanging on your coattails.

Mark Stinch:

That’s very kind of you, I don’t think I can take that much credit though, but the price. The price, plus 165. So Norwich was plus 130. So to only go to plus 165 for a team that we definitely think is better I don’t think it’s a big enough increase. We’re speaking about Man United kept back to back clean sheets, but what about the other 14 games where they’ve looked absolute kamikaze at the back at times. And we’ve just already admitted that we think Norwich could have scored at the weekend there. Thomas Frank said earlier, they think there’s a chance that Ivan Toney could be back, Sergi Canos will be back from suspension as well. Brentford, might have mentioned already, I like them this season. I mentioned at the beginning of the season that I like them, but I think both teams are just too unpredictable at the moment.

Mark Stinch:

And with the United, I was obviously quite happy with how they played against Palace or the process they had against Palace, but obviously against Norwich, it was unconvincing. So two games worth of data so far from Rangnick. I need to see a little bit more really and yeah, so for me at the odds there’s nothing really that stands out, and I kind of want to get another games worth of data for United sort of under my belt. And if Mark mentions these sort of potential COVID issues as well, it’s just another sort of spanner to throw in the works. So yeah, just a big swerve and a watching brief for me.

Gordon Flash Watson:

Okay. Well, [San Colma 00:14:39] in the chat is becoming one of my favorite guests in the chat because he’s saying, Yes Flash, two-nil wrote all over it. But he doesn’t say whether that’s Man United or Brentford, to be honest. So I’m just using it. I’m just like-

Mark Stinch:

[Inaudible 00:14:54].

Gordon Flash Watson:

Yeah exactly. Yeah. Well, definitely under two and a half goals not to see three goals was plus 100. So, I mean, I wouldn’t put anyone off of that, and I wouldn’t put anyone off of maybe the under one and half first half as well, if that’s where the line is. Let’s have a little look at the official picks. I think you know where I’m going, Brentford team total under no .5 at plus 165. I see Brentford nil. And then after that, I don’t really care.

Gordon Flash Watson:

Let’s move on to the second game because I had to leave this alone. It involves a staple diet. It’s Norwich versus Aston Vila. Both of them are on the back of one-nil defeats at the weekend. Norwich are plus 230. Oh, 230. The old Chinese dentist there. Villa plus 130, draw plus 230. And it’s under over two and a half goals. And the over being at plus 105, which is where I thought we could go, but we’ve got to look at Norwich, under half a goal at plus 190. Stinch, I couldn’t go with you here. I could not entertain this. I felt Norwich to win the game at plus 230 was the way to go.

Mark Stinch:

Well, a little bit of background, and I don’t think this is any biasness, but I believe that long-term Steven Gerrard is going to be a really good manager, and his record at Rangers fully convinces me. The odds that Rangers were closing up when he left, compared to when he joined, there was just a huge difference. And he really transformed that team. They had one of the other good things. They had a great defensive process as well. They had a massive set of clean sheets particularly at Ibrox, and they were very good. I’ve been impressed with Villa so far. I know at Liverpool it was difficult on Saturday. They conceded a lot of chances, but that’ll probably come down more to game state. The longer the game stayed at nil-nil, the less likely Villa were going to come out.

Mark Stinch:

So they’re just kind of happy. And if Tyrone Mings doesn’t give away the stupid foul, then maybe they get out of that with a nil-nil. And another sort of credit in Gerrard’s armory. I think we talked about their game against Man City. They’re very good at limiting Man City to low quality chances. And they’ve only conceded four goals in five games since Gerrard arrived. So I think there’s been a huge emphasis there on defence. And then yet the prize. Wow. It just looks huge, doesn’t it? Plus 190 talking there about Brentford not to score against a poorest Man United at 165. We can get 190 for a Norwich side that have failed to score in 19 of the last 26 Premier League games. Just yeah, huge to me and keep playing that sustainable edge until it dissolves, I think.

Gordon Flash Watson:

No, I get you. I get you. You’re playing the numbers. I just think that Norwich are turning up, Mark O’Haire, and they are saying, “This is where we start. This is where we get our three points,” especially, and this is the other line up check, and you’re going to have to be very careful is obviously they said that they’ve got positive cases at Villa. So the visitors may be understrength. And if they’re understrength, Norwich have to take their chance. So I see all out attack. I see over two and a half goals, plus 105. This game could be anything.

Mark O’Haire:

Yeah, it really could be. We touched on it with the United match. Norwich were very unfortunate not to get anything in that match on Saturday, considering the circumstances as well, because Dean Smith had to make five changes to his team that played against Tottenham the week earlier because of injury and illness, and ineligibility as well. So they should in theory be stronger, but actually they lost their captain, Grant Hanley, early on in that match. So the midfielder, Jacob Sorensen has to come in and play alongside Ozan Kabak in defence. And that looks like how they might have to set up again in midweek, which is a concern if you do want to be of Norwich, but they’ve been really unfortunate actually in terms of sort of selection. There’ve been no continuity, no consistency, particularly at center half, but they have been full of their effort and endeavor.

Mark O’Haire:

And I think Dean Smith has got them trending in the right direction. It’s just really frustrating watching them when they do get to the final third, because it’s either a wrong ball, a shot blocked, saved, wayward finishing. David de Gea was man of the match, obviously. But they’re still the league’s lowest goal scorers and the lowest chance creators as well. However, the positive is they are trending in the right direction under Smith in terms of creating more. It’s just, can you trust that quality outside of Teemu PukkI to do the business and Steven Gerrard’s talked about when he came into the role at Aston Villa, the defence was his priority. He knew that was an area of weakness, which he needed to address. And I think he certainly made those improvements. Look at the games against City and Liverpool, and the way in which they set up. They looked much more organized, but yeah, going forward, I’m still yet to see sort of Villa flourish into something really exciting considering the players they got available to them.

Mark O’Haire:

So, and then yeah, he got chucked in the COVID curve ball as well. It just makes things even more difficult. So I’m not sure it’s easy for a team to just transition towards… From being kind of slow, not slow, sorry, sitting back quite defensive minded, playing on the counter attack to play much more front foot football from one game to another. Look at Villa coming to this game after playing at Anfield. I’m not sure, you’d know better than I would Flash, how easy it is to adopt a completely different game plan.

Mark O’Haire:

But yeah, I think this is a great opportunity for Norwich to get some points on the board, whether it be one or three expected goals, estimates suggest that their four or five goals down on where they really should be at this stage based on the chances that they have created. So they are converting at a really poor rate. I’m not sure it’s going to continue to be that way. I do expect them to score and kind of get on the score sheet at some point. But yeah, this is a tricky game I think for both teams, and I think the draw is a big runner too. So for all that, I just kind of thought, “You know what, I’ll leave it alone and kind of take a watching brief.” Dean Smith against his old club as well, which is an interesting kind of narrative.

Gordon Flash Watson:

Yeah. There’s all sorts going on in the chat. I mean, we’ve got one-one final score at plus 525. We’ve got Villa, our absolute bankers, if they play their full side. Villa draw no bet at like 1.6, which is maybe minus 155, anything could happen in this game. But the one thing we’ll be cheering on, I do believe is Norwich nil, just, I honestly, Stinch, I love you to bits, but I just cannot see this, and I’m going to be struggling. I think there’s value in that home side, but I won’t press the button to go against you in this one, because it’ll be after the event. Where are the official picks here please? Because this is what we need to know. And it is Norwich team total under minus 1.9, sorry. Plus 190, that was plus 195, so there is plenty of money coming in. We are squeezing it down.

Gordon Flash Watson:

Move on to the next game. And it’s maybe champions elect, maybe not. It’s Manchester City versus Leeds. Now Man City at minus 700, never going to get rich. And the handicap is at minus two and a half at plus 115. Leeds are a massive plus 1800. Leeds not to scores at minus 125. And the draw is at plus 800. Stinch under over three and a half? Are we tempted to think that this could be just a tight Man City win again with Leeds being so organized?

Mark Stinch:

I, to be honest, I hate betting on Man City games because I feel like it’s up to them to decide how many they want to score, or how much they want to attack to try and get three, four, five goals. I mean, if obviously like in football matches a handicap generally we be looking anywhere between zero handicap to like minus one generally, but with City you always having to look at two or two and a half, and with the games coming thick and fast, Guardiola might decide to start resting players. If the game’s wrapped up at two nil after 60 minutes or even might leave them on, it’s just impossible to second guess.

Mark Stinch:

And that’s why I just hate trying to get involved in the games. I mean the odds suggest that it’s going to be sort of Man City two-nil or three-nil victory, but we know how good Leeds are. Leeds won this game two-one here last season with a, I think they had like three shots in the game or something. It wasn’t many. And both goals came from Stuart Dallas I think, if I’m not wrong, who’s normally a fullback. Although I think he played a little bit further forward in that game. So yeah. Leeds continues to be dangerous. But again, I think come back to the point I mentioned before, still waiting for Patrick Bamford to come back, and he came back, but then he got injured celebrating a goal.

Mark Stinch:

I just want to be able to play Leeds matches when I know their full strength. I think they’ve got like three defenders missing as well. And their bench looked very, very stretched at the weekend. So yeah, this should be a comfortable Man City win, I think, but Leeds have got dangerous players, and are capable of taking advantage of that space that man city will leave with their high press. So yeah, it’s again, it’s just not a game I really want to get involved in. As a general rule, I just find Man City games real tough.

Gordon Flash Watson:

Yeah. I mean I’m not going with Man City. Well, basically I’ve gone with Leeds not to score here, Mark O’Haire, but at minus 125, I thought, “Oh, it’s one of those now.” I just think Man City are going to control the game. Leeds are going to have to sit deep. They are without key personnel. So I’m just relying on Man City to strangle hold the game early, control it, not let Leeds out, and then I’ll get my minus 125. So Man City win to nil might be the other way to look at it.

Mark O’Haire:

Yeah. I mean, City are the strongest team defensively in the Premier League. Maybe not in terms of goals against, but in every other metric in terms of limiting your opposition chances. And a lot of that is down to their sort possession style control of games, means they give up few opportunities, but Leeds have actually scored in 21 of 27 away days since promotion, which is a really impressive record. And despite their record against the bigger teams being slightly weaker, they do tend to kind of give opposition teams, particularly at the top end of the table, a few problems. But yeah, I looked at this match and I wanted to try and find an angle in, but the handicaps and the lines are set so high. So City one eight are the last nine in the Premier League. They’ve only scored three or more goals in three of those nine games.

Mark O’Haire:

And similarly, if you look at their 12 Premier League wins only four, but by three or more goals, which I think kind of resonates with a point that Stinch has talked about a lot this season, not having a central striker in the sort of fame of Sergio Aguero to finish the chances that they create is kind of costing them, kind of upping their goal difference. They’re also without Cancelo this midweek who I know that squad is obviously big enough to cope without him, but he has been one of their sort of better forward thinking players in terms of being consistent so far this season, but yeah, Leeds has issues. No Calvin Phillips, it’s well documented how far their win rate falls without him and how much their loss rate increases, but no Cooper. No Banford, so effectively the spine of the side, no Robert cock Pascal Strujik was supposed to start the weekend, had to pull out on Friday. No Rodrigo, so.

Mark O’Haire:

And I think it’s also worth bearing mind for one of the most fit and energetic teams in the league, Leeds are having to go to Stanford bridge and then the Etihad in the space of a few days. So Bielsa’s teams aren’t sort of used to playing sort of back to back Premier League games in the space of a few days over the past couple of seasons or so. So how much is left in the legs. There might be a sense of injustice about how things went at Stamford Bridge, but going to two of the big three away from home in the space of a few days could easily kind of play against them. So City, if they’re in the mood in the second half might be able to sort of punish them. But yeah, overall, I just thought this was a game I was happy to leave alone because the lines are so high.

Gordon Flash Watson:

Yeah, they are. I mean, I’ve actually wrote down prior to you actually saying… I’m saying, “Can City win by three clear goals,” because obviously it’s at two and a half. And then I’m thinking, “Okay, now if I’m picturing the way this game’s going to go, it’s going to go maybe 75, 25 in City’s favor.” So maybe do we give Man City minus two and a half corners against Leeds? Also, do we go under with the cards? I’m thinking that I’m not expecting this game to be really competitive. I’m expecting this game to be quite a nice football match. Leeds it’s a free hit. I mean, it’s one of those where they’re not expecting to get anything out of it with all the injuries. So there’s many ways to skin this cat, but the way I’ve gone is I’ve just gone with Leeds not to score.

Gordon Flash Watson:

So the official pick in this game is Leeds team total under minus 125. The other is little theme for me here as well lads is that midweek games after such a hectic period, and prior to a hectic period, we’re going to see some strange results. We’re going to see teams that are not going fours and fives. And I think that the unders are going to be alive in quite a few of these games this week. And that’s why we opened up the show by saying that it’s pretty trappy, apart from Stinch who absolutely loves it. Okay. Let’s move on.

Mark Stinch:

Flash, why don’t you back Man City to win to nil at plus 100?

Gordon Flash Watson:

Is that what it is?

Mark Stinch:

Yeah.

Gordon Flash Watson:

Just because as I said a second ago, there’s going to be a strange nil-nil. And I just wanted that nil-nil on my side.

Mark Stinch:

Yep. Fair enough.

Gordon Flash Watson:

Not that I listen. I think that I wouldn’t put anyone off of going Man City win to nil plus 100, but when I was looking at the game and I’m getting minus one 20 minus 125, I’m thinking to myself, I’ve just got to keep at that. At some stage, there’s going to be a rogue nil-nil. And I don’t want it to be that I got the right selection, but I lost. Okay. So let’s move on then. Let’s move on to this next game, because again, this could be interrupted by for health reasons. It’s Brighton versus Wolves. Brighton plus 100 Wolves plus 300, nice round numbers. The handicap is at a half, it’s just under or over two goals, which again is one of those free hits for Stinch. The draw is at plus 225, I think it’s the away side or nothing? Stinch.

Mark Stinch:

Yeah. I’m very surprised by the odds to honest, I mean, if you take into consideration the goal line to begin with, so obviously the goal line’s very low, so that suggests a low scoring game. So when you have a low total, it means that the draw is more likely because if there’s zero goals, so obviously no one never finishes a draw. If there’s two goals, there’s a good chance that could be one-one. So the draws always shorter. So I’m very surprised that these odds are in Brighton and not really sure how that’s come about.

Mark Stinch:

I mean, I don’t know anybody that is going to be touching Brighton and at the price is pronounced. Means no wins in 10. And then you factor in they’re missing all three center backs, missing probably their best attacker in Trossard and Adam Lallana, which just, yeah. Find it really difficult why you’d want to go anywhere near Brighton in sort of argument against that. There’s no Raul Jimenez for Wolves because he got sent off at the weekend.

Gordon Flash Watson:

So is this pointing us towards both teams to score, no?

Mark Stinch:

Well, to be honest, that’s going to be a short price as well. Because I say the goal line’s quite short, but I just think that having said everything about Brighton’s price, even with the absence of Raul Jimenez, still got obviously Adama Traore, Hwang, Trincao going forward. I just think, yep. Getting with Wolves, you could back Wolves to win, but I’ve just playing a little bit safer and taking Wolves on the handicap but plus a half minus 120. So Wolves, double chance basically. And then also I know it might seem as I’m being lazy or whatever, but I’m going to take the overs again, just because again, the price just looks far too big to me. I mean-

Gordon Flash Watson:

You have to.

Mark Stinch:

… Palace V Everton, I went for overs in there and the price I think was minus 145, we got minus 120 here. So again, not only is the goal line low, but the price is ridiculously tempting as well. Premier League average this season 2.75 goals per game. So that would suggest if you were to price up blindly on that, it would be 50, 50 on 2.5. So I feel like could be stealing half a goal. The odds here suggests we’re only going to see 2.2 goals, but if you look at both teams in terms of sort of expected goals, Brighton ends up at 2.49, their games and Wolves is at 2.65.

Mark Stinch:

And I just think that’s encapsulated by some of Wolves’ games at beginning of the season where they played really well, created lots of chances, but lost them all one-nil. And if you just blindly look at sort of over under stats, that’s obviously going to point towards a low scoring game. But I think, as I mentioned before about theoretical value and actual value, I think theoretically, this is quite a good bet. And actually they played each other here last season and it finished three-three. So it’s not as if there’s not a chance that we could see a decent amount of goals and maybe-

Gordon Flash Watson:

Stinch let me interrupt you, Yeah. Because this is really an important point that I think that we all should make. That sometimes, and this is where the feeling I’m getting here. And then you’re going to obviously correct me if I’m wrong, but is this a situation where you are maybe have a play, but just because of the number, and not because of what you think’s going to happen, because you have to go with the number of being over two, even though you blindly think it’s going to be one-one, or it’s going to be an unders game. It’s like, I did the same with West Ham a few weeks against Chelsea. In my heart of hearts, I didn’t think that West Ham were going to be beating Chelsea, but at plus 380, it was one of those where I had to go with the number.

Mark Stinch:

Yeah, no, I would agree. Brighton we know they’re a good footballing team, but in terms of finishing chances, they’re not being that efficient. So there’s that danger that way. And then I say with no Raul Jimenez for Wolves, there’s that danger in that respect, but the only way the bet loses if there’s zero one goals. And as I said, I would be surprised if there’s people out there that are taking under two. And basically, as I said before, they’d just have to watch the match.

Mark Stinch:

But behind the hands basically, I mean, if it was… I don’t know if it was maybe like trying to think of two real negative teams, maybe in South America in the final of the Copa Libertadores like games in there are ridiculously tight and you see goal lines like this all the time, but this is the Premier League around Christmas time where we said like strange things can happen in games coming thick and fast. There’s a lot of variables to throw into the pot that in my mind don’t make sense to be taking a low scoring game at this particular line. So yeah, I’ll continue down this route and hopefully I can get three goals rather than another push. I think I’ve had seven out of eight pushes on over two goals and one winner. So no losses. So decent record.

Gordon Flash Watson:

No, and again, you’ve got to stick with it because of the numbers tell you that. Mark O’Haire, stinks of a draw half times for me at minus 105.

Mark O’Haire:

Yeah. I agree. I think it’s a stinking coupon, but I think this game represents probably the best opportunity of the midweek card. I want to be with Wolves rather than sort of playing any sort of gold markets. We know Brighton’s game is postponed to the weekend in Spurs. That means they’re still without Duffy through suspension, still without Dunk, still without Webster, Trossard is fit, which is a great news for, for Stinch’s goals based bets. But Lallana is out, Jimenez is out as well. So, but yeah, I mean Brighton at the moment because of the injuries issues in defence, it looks like they’re going to have to switch to a back four, which means Lamptey and Cucurella usually, they’re sort of attacking wingbacks who will be playing at fullback. You might have Veltman partnering Burn at center back, which doesn’t feel you have a huge amount of confidence.

Mark O’Haire:

So there’s disruption. There’s also talk today from Graham Potter, that they’ve got three or four COVID related issues in the squad, whether it’s staff or playing, we’re not sure yet, but something to bear in mind too, but Brighton often tend to be feigned about for sort of missing key chances and, sort of under scoring their XG. Defence has actually been their backbone this season. But at the moment you can’t really have too much confidence in that defence considering the players missing. Stinch is right. They haven’t won a Premier League game in 10, which is basically three months going back to mid-September. They haven’t scored twice or more in any of those 10 games as well. And they’ve played both knowledge and Newcastle in that time and scored just once. So I’m not holding out huge amount of hope for them to cause the Wolves team problems, who have just dealt really, really well with Liverpool and Man City, conceded the fourth fewest goals in the league, only conceded twice or more three times under Bruno Lage, but they’ve only actually scored once in the last six themselves.

Mark O’Haire:

And Jimenez being absent is an issue. But you look at their results as so far this season, particularly in the XG as well, they’ve only lost once in 90 against the bottom half. And I think they’d be more than good enough to sort of get more points than they’ve actually got on the board. So yeah, I think Wolves to avoid defeat, Wolves plus half a goal here is the way to play it. Like stage just can’t really understand the odds here because Wolves have just been just as good, if not better than Brighton and have much a fuller squad available to them. Brighton missing many players and possibly more. We don’t know about too.

Gordon Flash Watson:

Yeah. Brighton plus 100 for me. No chance. That’s just crazy. I cannot see that. I understand totally why you’re going. It’s Wolves or nothing, offense or the unders, but obviously I’ve got to go with my man, who’s going over two. Not because he thinks it’s going to go over two, because the numbers tell him that he has to stick with that formula. And that’s how you end up winning money come May. Okay. Let’s have a little look at the official picks please. Because I had to sit this one out Wolves, plus-

Mark O’Haire:

Should we upgrade the Wolves plus half a go to banker?

Gordon Flash Watson:

Yeah, you can do more than happy to do that. So basically Wolves double chance. Wolves double chance. Minus one 20 is the banker. Nice to see you jumping on. All we got to do now is get Stinch maybe saving up for Christmas. So in the January south, when the January sales starts, we’re boxing date, we may be again, because obviously we’re going to be with you all the way through December and the new year. So there’s your first banker from Mark O’Haire. It’s Wolves double chance at minus 120 and it’s Wolves double chance at minus 120 for Stinch, and also over to at minus 120. I hope that it is two-nil. I hope it’s two-nil because I cannot see three nil, but we’re on wolves. It’s Wolves to get so ink on the south coast. And I think we’re all in agreement.

Gordon Flash Watson:

Everyone in the chat. Yeah. they agree with us, even if they don’t I’ll say they’re. Okay. Last game. Last game, really impressed with this side yesterday. I’ve got a few facts here because obviously I’ve been involved in this game. Crystal Palace versus Southampton, worst place in the world to get to is Selhurst Park. Palace at plus 130 is gigantic. It was 130 yesterday against Everton. Southampton at plus two 10. No thank you. Pick them at plus one 30 for the visitors, the draw plus 235, and the under and over is two and a half.

Gordon Flash Watson:

Let me talk about this Palace side, first of all. Strength, pace, organization against a Southampton side, neat, tidy. Watch them play you’re quite impressed. Your eyes are quite happy to watch him. And then you look at the score line and then normally two-nil down. Mark O’Haire here, this Palace side have got a bit of everything and the young boy Gallagher just compliments the likes of Ayew coming in off the side? You’ve then got Zaha coming in off the side, and you’ve got big boys in the midfield to dominate the game. I was so close to just going Palace plus 130 or Palace minus one around 265.

Mark O’Haire:

Yeah. I want to be pro Palace here. I think they really stamped their authority all over Everton on Sunday. And at home in Selhurst Park. Now they’ve returned some decent figures, three wins, four draws, just the one defeat. Only lost five games under Patrick Vieira despite a really tough schedule. Three of those five defeats came in against the top five. So they’re well accustomed to getting results against the lesser lights in the Premier League this season. And I think unlike Southampton, they’ve got options. If you look at the substitute expense against Everton, there was decent players to bring off the bench there.

Mark O’Haire:

And I think in busy periods like this, that can be particularly telling in a second half when you’re down chasing a match. So yeah, I think there’s definitely mileage in getting Palace on side, but rather than sort of being pro Palace it’s more kind of being negative against Southampton because they did start really well at the Emirates and then fell apart after conceding the opening goal, which was people lauding the Arsenal buildup play, but actually Southampton’s defence was really quite shoddy in kind of closing down the spaces, allowing Arsenal the room to maneuver from Ramsdale all towards the goal.

Mark O’Haire:

So I think we talked about the key absentees that they had, Salisu and Romeu were back, which is big for Southampton, but Willie Caballero between the sticks, just he looked his age to me at the weekend, made a few real clangers and yeah, going forward Che Adams has been confirmed as being missing again, Adam Armstrong and Broja went off for the weekends and considered major doubts now as well. So that’s basically your three first choice forwards and both of your goalkeepers being unavailable. So from perspective 11 you’ve got the likes of Redmond or Walcott starting in attack, which isn’t ideal, and they’ve found goal scoring difficult this season already they’ve score twice or more, just three times all season and defensively now they’re giving away goals particularly away from home. So that’s not the happiest kind of combinations, particularly kind of falling short in both boxes against the Palace team who definitely know where the back of the net is and seem capable and organized enough to get a result.

Mark O’Haire:

So because of the price, plus one 30, I’m being a little bit pragmatic here because we can get a bit more kind of assurance on our side. So I’m Palace minus a quarter, basically it means you can back Palace. If the game ends in a draw, we only lose half of our stake. And the only way in which we lose our full stake is if Southampton win, considering they fail to do so away at Newcastle and Norwich and considered twice in both of those games. I don’t expect them to win at Selhurst Park.

Gordon Flash Watson:

Okay. Let me just put a pin in everyone’s bloom because I know that Southampton have an unbelievable record away at Crystal Palace and these little moments they do come back to haunt you sometimes, but I’m so close Stinch to pressing the button on Palace. Just win the game. Don’t complicate it. Again, a plus 130, I was really impressed with him yesterday.

Mark Stinch:

Yeah. I echo both of everything you two have said really. Going with the same bit as Mark, the minus 105, just because of that little bit of insurance of getting half the stake back and finishes a drawer. Don’t think plus one, I mean, so they’re all correlated. If you choose to back the money line or you choose back the handicap, they’re both the same amount of value. So you can’t really go wrong. You’re just obviously not going to earn as much if you take them on the minus, not 0.25 that we’re doing, but obvious the ads you get going to get half state back of finishes in a drawer. Yeah. I’ve been really impressed with Crystal Palace and very impressed with what Patrick Vieira has done. Really like Gallagher that you mentioned in the middle of the park, he looks a superb player. I was very impressed with him against Everton as well. They had 17 shots, 12 of them came inside the box. I just think it’s more of the same. I really don’t think that the market here is factoring in all of Southampton’s injury problems.

Gordon Flash Watson:

What about, I’m just thinking out loud here, because I was looking at did Palace score twice, because over one and a half goals for the home side is that massive plus 140. Now what about this for a parlay? And again, I don’t want to complicate it, but we’ve got Wolves, double chance. What do we have? Minus 120 was it? Minus 120 for Wolves double chance and Palace draw, no bet is at minus 150. So I’m thinking to myself, that’s like 180. We could be looking at maybe a plus 175 for the pair of them. What do we think? Do we think that Wolves double chance and Palace draw? No bet.

Mark Stinch:

Yeah, I can get on board with both of those. The only way that would lose is if-

Gordon Flash Watson:

Palace and Wolves lose.

Mark Stinch:

… Yeah, exactly. If they both drew, for example, we still get some of our stake back, so yeah, I can fully get on board with that.

Gordon Flash Watson:

Okay. Can you just work out what that is? Minus 120 and minus 150, please think why I say to everybody, let’s have a look at the official picks in this game. First of all, and obviously follow us on Twitter @betus_soccer because obviously that’s where any updates will be. And if there’s some team news and I like a bet, I will be posting it on there, but it’s Palace basically pick them and minus half at minus 105 and exactly the same for Stinch Crystal Palace pick them and minus half at minus 105. And the draw no bet is at minus 150. Let’s go back to the start.

Gordon Flash Watson:

When I said we are America’s face every sports book. So if you can show a little bit of appreciation by subscribing and let help us get to 4,000 subscribers ASAP, maybe a little Christmas present for me, but more importantly, you got to ring the bell. You got to ring the bell so that we can notify you. And you’ll never miss any content again. Going to be thick and fast over the Christmas period. Henry said, “Why did we mention Man City and Leeds when we have not mentioned Arsenal West Ham? Well, Henry the way this show goes, we’ve not got a play in Arsenal West Ham. So that’s why we didn’t mention it. Now just quickly, Mark O’Haire. Why did we not mention Arsenal West Ham?

Mark O’Haire:

A tricky game? I think the odds are probably about right West Ham you think we might be able to go to the Emirates and cause a bit of a stir, but they’re missing two key center halves in Ogbonna and Zouma going forward. They haven’t really clicked in recent weeks. I think they’ve just… The Chelsea win is there only win since the last international break, which is a five game start now and David Moyes at the weekend was sort of bemoaning the fact his player standards have slipped a little bit since the start of the season.

Mark O’Haire:

He is kind of trying to G them back up after that nil-nil draw at Burnley where they were a little bit toothless at times. So, but Arsenal, obviously buzzing after the weekend winning at Southampton, this is a different test. It’s a much more difficult test. So London derby, midweek game, plenty of sort of variables to take into account. I wondered if over two and half goals was potentially a route to go down there. Yeah, it’s pretty much over under the lines. So pretty much around the same there about 110, minus 110. So I wonder whether overs was the play there, but-

Gordon Flash Watson:

And both teams to score?

Mark O’Haire:

Yeah, I think there’s a potential there for sure. Arsenal have definitely been better at the Emirates this season. But if you look at the teams that they played against, there’s a few question marks over the opposition, so this is a different test for them. So yeah, I would be happy to get on board with goals there, but I just thought the prices were probably around right.

Gordon Flash Watson:

Okay. Stinch, someone said Chelsea win to nil. What’s the price of that parlay though. Have you done it?

Mark O’Haire:

Yeah. Plus 205.

Gordon Flash Watson:

Plus 205. That is our parlay. By the way if you are joining us, someone wants to just… I say someone, he knows who he is. Take up the official picks, please. Because we’re going to add there the parlay, which is Wolves double chance and Palace draw no bear. Yeah. Very light on the ground. But we are actually looking for the value But Snitch can you just tell me why Chelsea went nil is not the right way to go?

Mark Stinch:

Just because Chelsea have just looked all at sea defensively recently. Very surprised to see. I mean, wow. How lucky in the Champions league draw? So finishing first in Champions league draw is normally imperative to get in on an easier game in the next round. Somehow they’ve drawn Lille, and they’ve just absolutely fluked it there. To go away to Zenit where you just were thinking under Tuchel, professional Champions League performance, they scored after what three minutes was it? You just expect them to see it out. And wow. They looked all at sea. Against the Leeds team as well that’s missing number of key players.

Mark Stinch:

Again, they gave up chances. Same against West Ham to go there and ship three. So yeah, they just look all at sea at the back in the minute and might be because the games are coming thick and fast they are having to rotate, and they have had a few injuries mentioned off air that they’ve got no N’golo Kante which could be the big, big miss in there. Kovacic is missing as well. So yeah, wouldn’t want to go near that even though that’s where you want to lean, as we mentioned, but at the end of the day, it comes down to price and I didn’t think the price was anything that you would want get involved in, really? I’d rather go bet on Norwich, clean sheet. Not to score, sorry against Villa instead where you get a much better price.

Gordon Flash Watson:

Yeah. We can’t condone that sort of behavior to be honest. So we like everyone. This time we’re 75 of you are watching, 36 of you have gone thumbs up. So that’s under 50%. Have a great midweek. We will see you again on Thursday where I’ve already had a little sneaky look at the card and it looks a lot, lot better. So this just gamble what you can afford to lose this week. Because I think you’re going to be having plenty fun cards, I think might be a premium, but we have got the plus 205 parlay, and we will be looking to add to all of our winners. So from Stinch, from Mark O’Haire from everyone at BetUS, you take care, ciao.