Flash:
Welcome to BetUS, I’m Flash, it’s Premier League. It’s match day 19 and a big, big warm Merry Christmas from everyone at BetUS, and especially from my esteemed guests and experts. We are America’s favorite sports book, so please subscribe. Get us closer to 4,000, maybe by the end of the year. But if not, early part of January, it’d be a big thing for us, and we appreciate everything that you have done and that you do and you spread the word as you are part of the team.
Flash:
More importantly though, ring the bell. Ring the bell means that we’ll notify you, you’re not going to miss any content and with the days changing, with Christmas coming up, there’s going to be all sorts of cancellations, but you must know the times. We need to make sure that you’re on the ball. Get yourselves in the chat, we want to hear from you, we want your lings, we want your bankers, we want your chips, and we want your favs, not just for us, but you’ve got to share it with your teammates and get yourself in there and show a little bit of appreciation to my two experts with a little bit of a thumbs up.
Flash:
My experts are the award winning of We Love Betting UK, or just We Love Betting, is Mark O’Haire, and European odds compiler and the sniffer of all value that you want to be betting on in Mark Stinchcombe, but he’ll be called Stinch for the foreseeable, because I’ve got two Marks, I don’t want to confuse myself as well as you. Mark O’Haire, we had three games last week over two cards. Now, all of a sudden, everything’s good and we’re going to have every game again on Boxing Day, or are we?
Mark O’Haire:
I was going to say, it looks like we are, but the way things are moving at the moment, you never know really. I believe the Premier League met on Monday morning to discuss things, are happy to proceed as planned, but obviously that is an ever changing situation regarding COVID. We’ve just got to keep an eye out and hope to God that these games go ahead, because Boxing Day is a huge day in the calendar, particularly in the UK. Yeah, fingers crossed it goes ahead. But at the moment, all good.
Flash:
Yeah, caveat, Stinch, is that we’re probably going to have to have a little keep your eye and ear to the ground to make sure that you know the lineups because anything can happen. Or do we just favor the sides with big squads?
Mark Stinchcombe:
I don’t know. I think you’ve got to take each game on its individual merits to be honest, because you look at Chelsea and they’ve got a massive squad and they’re struggling with their injuries and illness issues that they have at the moment, and with a virus that you can’t actually see, there’s likely that there could be players playing that aren’t testing positive but potentially are under the weather as a result. I think you’ve just got to take each game on its individual merit. But a lot of difficult information to try and decipher because clubs aren’t even releasing who’s I’ll and who’s injured and that sort of thing. If in doubt, definitely wait for the lineups, because they can’t lie.
Flash:
Okay. And there will be another Premier League show next week, next Monday, I believe, which is the 27th, and we’ll be looking forward to the midweek games, and then again on the 30th, make sure you ring the bell because then that will make sure that we let you know and you’ll never miss anything. Okay, talking the positives, let’s have a little look at the records because the records are showing … And remember, I don’t duplicate. If myself, Mark and Stinch, if either two of the three have the same pick, they do not go on the total. There’s Flash, don’t like to talk about it, and the total is at 8.13, we’re happy with that. Put 100 quid on each one. You’re up 800, nice. Merry Christmas, curtesy of myself, the owner and Stinch.
Flash:
Okay, let’s move on. Don’t like to look at that until it’s a lot, lot higher. Okay, first game we’re going to be looking at is Wolves verus Watford. Wolves minus 120, Watford, a massive plus 360. The draw is at plus 250 and the total is under/over two and a half with the over at plus 115. Mark O’Haire, I fancy the over could get battered here.
Mark O’Haire:
Really? Yeah, I’m not-
Flash:
Watford’s scored five on the road, they’ve scored twos, they’ve scored fours. I’m not thinking that this is just a game because Wolves don’t score many, I’m just thinking of Watford as so open.
Mark O’Haire:
Yeah. This is the issue I have really coming into this game. I looked at this long and hard, whether I wanted to be involved in some way or form, whether I wanted to be with Wolves or if there’s a goals route, and I’ve ended up just walking away because you’ve got two teams who are just from complete opposite ends of what you would expect on a football pitch. You’ve got Wolves who are so strong defensively, so resilient, so well organized, but just can’t score goals against the Watford team, and as you say, are so open, so dreadful defensively, but do cause opposition defenses a few issues, too.
Mark O’Haire:
But I started wanting to be with Wolves and I feel like I’m going to miss out if Wolves do go on to win this came because Watford are no great shakes, they’re going to be scrapping to survive. We know what Stinch thinks of Claudio Ranieri and his appointment, but it’s six defeats in seven now, they’re yet to keep a clean sheet. But it’s whether you can trust Wolves to win at that price and I though the fixture against Chelsea was set up perfectly for Wolves and what Wolves are all about and that’s to sit in their shape, nullify the opponents, play to their own strengths, but this requires a different mindset, a different approach, really.
Mark O’Haire:
And we’ve seen more than once this season where they’ve struggled against teams when they’re in this position, where they’re expected to win. 0-0 at home to Burnley, 0-0 away at Norwich, just two examples. Wolves, we talk about their attack, it’s the second worst in the Premier League in terms of goals. They’ve only scored 13 goals in 18 games this season. They’ve only scored twice in eight since the start of November, and that’s my issue. Can you really get them on side or get involved in a goal heavy game when the team is barely scoring at the moment?
Mark O’Haire:
But I think under Bruno Lage, they’ve scored twice or more just four times. They’ve never scored three or more goals in one game, and that puts me off this match all together really. We know Watford are about, we know they’ll try and get forward, they’ll look to attack and there’s no Ismaila Sarr, but they’re still scoring goals, they’re still causing teams problems. But I just don’t see Wolves shaking away from that style which we’ve seen pretty relentlessly now since the start of the season where they’re just very difficult to beat, very difficult to score against, but at the same point, have problems when they enter the final third.
Flash:
Stinch, plus 105 for Wolves to score twice, Watford not to score at plus 140. Wolves don’t let any goals in, Wolves have not been hit for more than two nearly all season. Wolves at minus 120, surely that’s just a don’t complicate it, and that’s where I’ll be going.
Mark Stinchcombe:
Wow, very difficult to trust this Wolves attack as Mark mentioned. One goal in the last six games and I think we did quite well to avoid betting them when they played Burnley and Norwich, both finished 0-0. I’m sure there was plenty of people out there that were backing Wolves. You looked at the lead table around that point, I think Wolves are top six. We know that Burnley and Norwich are both in the bottom three, so I think we did well to avoid backing them there.
Mark Stinchcombe:
It’s a very difficult one to call because I don’t think you can touch Wolves at the price. I went into the match having not seen the odds, thinking I want to get with Wolves somehow, but as Mark said, I think the odds are just too short, and it’s really difficult to trust what Watford are going to turn up, basically. We know they’ve been gung-ho and goal heavy, but then at the same time, we know Wolves have been really good defensively and very cautious over the last probably two months now. It’s a meeting of two contrasting styles and I think it’s probably one where I think you go with maybe a longterm betting approach that you like to adopt.
Mark Stinchcombe:
If you’re a big fan of betting on goals because one of the teams is mad, Watford’s matches since Ranieri arrived is averaging nearly five a game, then back the overs at plus money. But if you’re somebody that thinks that a good defense can nullify a gung-ho attack, then probably side with trying to get Wolves on side somehow. Maybe you go Wolves in under two and a half goals at plus 200. But then at the same time, that is quite risky because we know how crazy Watford are and they could easily grab a consolation if Wolves have gone maybe a couple of goals up.
Mark Stinchcombe:
Complete swerve for me, I’m afraid. Don’t really like any of the angles that are being offered up.
Flash:
Listen, I’m happy, I’m going to go minus 120, gets me 85% of my money that I put down. I think that these are completely distant spheres when it comes to talent, organization, patience. I’ve just got to go with the home side to win this game, even if they win 1-0, I’m more than happy. And Watford are plus 140 not to score again the Wolves, a side that hardly ever let a goal in. But remember to make sure you look at the lineups. But for me, Wolves money live, minus 120 and just kick on.
Flash:
Next game. Well, I had to look at this twice, it was a double take. Man City versus Leicester. Man City minus 500, who are you kidding? Leicester plus 1,200, really? Really? Draw at plus 625. Leicester plus two at minus 120. Remember we had Southampton plus two and a half earlier on in the year. The under/over is three and a half and the over is at plus 120. Now, this is the bit I cannot understand, Mark O’Haire, team total over half a goal, so just for Leicester to score, minus 110. Now, please tell me have Leicester not got the best record at the Etihad than any other team in this league?
Mark O’Haire:
I don’t know, you’ll have to tell me that, Flash, but I presume you know the answer to it.
Flash:
I do. I’m building up my power.
Mark O’Haire:
Yeah, I don’t read too much into head to head stuff and this is an interesting one because I think it’s very difficult to pinpoint value in Man City matches because they’re so lopsided, so you either have to oppose them in some way or get them on side and covering a massive handicap, which is never really the most enjoyable watch, really. From a Leicester perspective, where are they at at the moment because we know the game against Spurs was called off because of COVID, injury and illness. They had no center halves going into that match. We know that Evans and Soyuncu should be back from injury for this match, but neither have covered themselves in glory this season.
Mark O’Haire:
We’ve hammered that home numerous times now about Leicester’s defense, two clean sheets all season. Statistically one of the worst defenses in the Premier League in terms of chances allowed, expected goals conceded, shots faced. You can point the blame at the back four, we can point the blame at the hole in midfield, but I’ve seen a stat this week as well which says for Kasper Schmeichel, he’s rating as one of the worst goalkeepers in terms of goals prevented from on target attempts and expected conceded as well. The whole defensive system isn’t working for Leicester at the moment, which is a bit of a concern considering how Man City are playing at moment. They’re just finding their stride really and putting teams to the sword quite comfortably.
Mark O’Haire:
It’s what can Leicester do at the Etihad really and will Rodgers adopts a containing counter approach? It’s not really his style. But if you go toe to toe with City at the moment, then it’s going to be difficult. But Leicester have scored in 13 of 16 games in the Premier League but they’ve only scored once in four against the top five. Now, they’re were comfortably beaten by City at the KP. They were comfortably beaten by Chelsea at the KP, failed to score in both of those matches, and this definitely their toughest test of the season so far.
Mark O’Haire:
City have only conceded three goals in nine at the Etihad, two of which came against Paris. They were a little bit sloppy at New Castle, must be said, but the squad’s going to be even stronger for this match. Foden and Grealish will come back. Kyle Walker’s possibly the only player who might be missing-
Flash:
Ace.
Mark O’Haire:
… their first team squad. But you look at the underlying process, it’s ridiculous for City. They’re averaging 1.74 non penalty expected goals more than their opponents per game, which is quite frankly ridiculous numbers. If you look at their goals against, their averaging just 0.5 foals conceded a game in the Premier League, which is bang in line with their xG conceded as well. They’ve just been quite ridiculous in both boxes, really. I’ve just thought, you know what, I want to be with City in some way, but the price isn’t aligned, you can’t get anything on board there.
Mark O’Haire:
I’ve said it numerous times this season, I don’t like Leicester. I don’t think beating New Castle changes that opinion to be honest and I still need to see more and I still need to see those players fit, available and a squad that’s healthy enough to compete.
Flash:
Yeah, okay, I’ve got no change out of Mark O’Haire there when I was trying to tee him up. Let me go to the other one. Stinch, minus 110 for Leicester to score when they’ve got Vardy, they’ve got Barnes, they’ve got Maddison, and also, let me just cast people’s minds back just to the last couple of games, New Castle should’ve been scoring, Leeds lost 7-0 and had three off four golden opportunities. This defense is not good. For me, I just want Leicester to score, I don’t care if Man City wins 6-1 to be honest.
Mark Stinchcombe:
I think the data says otherwise, really as [crosstalk 00:13:20]-
Flash:
Well, okay, you keep talking, I’m going to find this data.
Mark Stinchcombe:
0.5 expected goals against on average, and only nine goals conceded in 18 games, that’s a 50-50 shot, and the odds are pitched up as 50-50, so I’m happy to suggest that the odds are right, really. I think if you want to go and back a team total, go and back Norwich not to score, you’ll get a better price and probably a better run for your money as well, I’d imagine. Man City just absolutely dominate games, they’re probably going to get probably 65, 70% possession here. Leicester, I’m still not convinced, as Mark said, in terms of they don’t know what their best team is and if they do happen to catch Man City on the break, Man City have got a lot of fouling, tactical experts that will cut them down in their charges.
Mark Stinchcombe:
Maybe one would be to look at here would be maybe Man City over one a half cards, I’m not sure what the odds are. But actually, Man City do tend to pick up quite a few cards when they come up against teams that are good on the pace. Unfortunately, there’s no line available for that at the moment. That could be one to look out for. But just to touch on the goal line quickly. Goal line’s at three and a half. When Man City went to Leicester in September, the goal line there was set at two and half and we’ve been playing Leicester two and a half regularly this season. Again, I think it’s just one to avoid, really, and it’s basically the same as Mark already mentioned, going into this match, I think it’s just up to Man City to decide how many they want to win by and I would imagine because the games are going to come thick and fast, Guardiola will start rotating as soon as they go two or three goals up.
Mark Stinchcombe:
Against New Castle, which they won with ease, they didn’t have to be that good, they even could afford to drop Grealish and Foden from the squad completely, and that’s a squad with just one recognized striker and Foden and Grealish have both played in the forward line this season. Man City are just an absolute machine and I think it takes a brave man to oppose them, but you’ve been successful this season already, your record speaks for itself, so I reckon crack on.
Flash:
You know what the score was in this corresponding fixture last year? Manchester City two, Leicester five. When you turn up at a place after you’ve had such good results, and remember when Leicester actually won the league, I know we’re going back six or seven years, they went to Man City and scored four, and Man City were the champions. They were the holders of the Premier League. For me, Leicester going there and just asking them to score one goal, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they get a penalty, by the way, I’m not having Zinchenko as a defensive … He’s almost like a wing back. He cannot, I’m not having Ake, I’m not having them boys when they’re mixing and matching. I think Man City win the game. Man City to win and both teams to score could be the way to go.
Flash:
But the official pick is Leicester team total over 0.5, you guessed it, minus 110. I just cannot believe that price. I thought they’d be minus 140, minus 150, I think it’s an absolute guarantee. Let’s see who’s got egg on their face come Boxing Day or the day after.
Flash:
Okay, moving on, moving on. This is a horrible game. Spurs versus Crystal Palace. Spurs at minus 135, got away with murder at home two Liverpool over the weekend. Crystal Palace at plus 360, that’s a big price. Draw at plus 290. Under/over two and a half. Stinch, it’s pick them, under or over, just go with goals, because I’ll tell you what, Palace at plus 360, they could well be the ones to be with.
Mark Stinchcombe:
Yeah, I think at the prices, I would want to oppose Spurs, but still in the back of my head, I go back to we talked them up very positively ever since Conte arrived. Still basically waiting for them to show that, and I still believe they will show that, it just feels as though it’s taking a while. They did have a couple of games canceled, so they had two weeks off. You say they got away with it against Liverpool, but they did have two or three gilt-edged chances on the counter attack.
Mark Stinchcombe:
I think they will struggle perhaps in games where they’re expected to take the game to the opposition, which could be this game here. I don’t think they should be minus money. I think that’s probably a little bit too short. They were a similar price against Leeds and they got away with it massively, didn’t they, against Leeds. They could’ve been two or three down by halftime. I think at the prices, I would rather be with Palace just in the back of my head.
Mark Stinchcombe:
If it was Nuno’s Tottenham, I’d definitely happy to oppose them. I just think Conte is basically like a plane waiting to take off really, and I think they’re just going to go on a really good run at some point. But I’ve been very impressed with Patrick Vieira’s Crystal Palace this season. Over and under’s a difficult one because I think it massively relies on whether Spurs are going to create good chances and ultimately take them. I think the best bet here is probably to oppose Spurs if you aren’t convinced by what they’ve done all season basically. Harry Kane, only two goals all season, to keep him quiet, keep Son quiet, probably go a long way to avoiding defeat.
Flash:
Mark O’Haire, I like the goals. I think that both teams are going to score. One of them is going to get a minimum of two. I can see maybe even the old famous 2-2 draw. Plus 290 on the draw for a tight game or minus 110 going over.
Mark O’Haire:
Yeah, it’s a tricky one, I thought, this one, purely because I echo a lot of what Stinch said, really. But still struggling to sort of bracket Spurs and how far they’ve come under Conte. They clearly are a better team than they were under Nuno, and I thought they played pretty well considering the circumstances against Liverpool. Of course, Liverpool had the majority of the match, the possession of territory. But Spurs did have those opportunities on the counter attack.
Mark O’Haire:
But I thought they looked fresh, I thought they look energized. I did think they looked pretty well drilled considering the circumstances, and I do expect them to improve as the season goes on, particularly without European duty now and still early into the season, which is a big bonus for them, too. Exciting times I think for a Spurs supporter, but I think it’s probably more of a longer term project than something right now where I really want to get Spurs on side at minus money.
Mark O’Haire:
Although the team news is encouraging, and we talk about team news quite a lot, but going into that game against Liverpool, I was quite surprised to see Son starting. You looked at the bench, they had Skipp, Lucas Moura, Bergwijn, Lo Celso, Reguilon. Suddenly that squad was looking quite strong again considering the illness, injury, COVID etc. I think approach wise, so far, Spurs have been quite counter attacking under Conte, which is quite surprising considering some of the opponents that they’ve had. They’ve not been that great opening up low line defenses.
Mark O’Haire:
I think a lot of it relies on Palace here, and how Palace are going to take of Spurs and they’re going to have James McArthur back, which is a big bonus. His legs around midfield certainly boost from a defensive perspective. And they have been quite a difficult team to beat under Vieira. Liverpool, Chelsea, United, Villa and Leeds are the only teams to beat them. I think Palace will argue they probably deserved something out of a couple of those games as well.
Mark O’Haire:
I don’t think this is a walkover win at all, and I think Palace will be more than good enough to get something from it. But in terms of the goal line, nothing really there for me, to be honest. I thought it was probably about right. Just want to see more Spurs under Conte. We’ve had five games over about two, two and a half months really since he’s arrived. I still don’t feel like I’ve got a good read on what they’re about and how they’ll attack these kind of games. I wasn’t wholly impressed by what they did against Leeds, Brentford or even Norwich, to be honest. I’d be pro Palace if I had to have a play in this one.
Flash:
I’m just pro goals. I think that there’s going to be no control in this game. I noticed Hojbjerg’s out, obviously having Son and listen, they’ve got good pace about them, Spurs. You know what, Kane, like the red London buses, Kane scores, then he’s liable to score and maybe go on a run and that confidence will be back. I see this over two and a half goals and don’t look for the winner, but Palace is definitely the way you want to be. Palace double chance might be a bit of value.
Flash:
But the men in white coats are knocking at my door because every selection I’ve had, Jonathan Nelson, if he goes anywhere near your selection or agrees with you, you are in trouble. Well, he’s put up the same selection as me in the first three games. I am all sorts of trouble and I might have to rethink this whole program. Let’s have a little look at the official picks because I’m not complicating them. Over tow and a half goals for me, minus 110. I expect this could be anything. If Spurs go and win 3-0, so bet it, but as long as there’s over two and a half goals in the game, then I’m picking up at minus 110.
Flash:
I thought next game was … I think it was a shoo-in, to be honest. It’s West Ham versus Southampton, and West Ham minus 130. That looks like a don’t complicate it type of price. Southampton at plus 340. Draw at plus 295. And the under/over, and I cannot believe that the under is plus 120. Stinch, under here, when Southampton don’t really score many goals, they try to keep it tight on the road, especially when they go to a more stronger lineup.
Mark Stinchcombe:
Yeah, definitely. I’m not sure how much you’re aware, but West Ham have only won one in the last six. I know that was against Chelsea, and you backed them against Chelsea, so fair play, but obviously we know that it was quite a lucky-
Flash:
I can’t keep living off that, though, Stinch.
Mark Stinchcombe:
No.
Flash:
[crosstalk 00:23:24]. But the other thing is, when I look at these two sides, there’s a gulf and there’s a mismatch. It’s like a heavyweight and a middleweight. The boys that Spurs are going up against are not heavy, big, strong athletes. Whereas West Ham, they certainly are that.
Mark Stinchcombe:
Yeah. I think maybe alternatively, I definitely agree with the unders seems … I would definitely pitch it more 50-50. As I say, I’ve been a bit disappointed with West Ham over the last few weeks. I feel like maybe Europe’s caught up with them a little bit. Obviously only really got Michail Antonio as their main striker, and we know Southampton, their issues with scoring goals and obviously they’ve been without Che Adams and Adam Armstrong going forward. I know they scored two against Palace, but obviously I think you mentioned before, they were difficult chances. One was a wall pass free kick and the other was a goal from outside the area.
Mark Stinchcombe:
Actually, maybe the better bet there is, given the fact the under two and a half is at plus money, is to go for the under 2.75 at minus 110, you get a little bit more extra security. If there are three goals scored in the game, you’re going to get half your stake back. Perhaps that’s the better road to go down because these two played each other in early September and it finished 0-0, and it wasn’t a game of lots of chances. If Southampton’s still missing those forward players, you’d imagine they’re probably going to go there and try and get a point, defend deep, and they’ve done that at Man City already this season. Maybe under 2.75, given the difference in the plus and minus money on the over two and a half.
Flash:
Okay. Mark O’Haire, obviously we’re going to have the numbers flick back up because we can have a little look at maybe Southampton not to score, a plus 180. That is massive when West Ham, it’s all about them getting points back in the bag and getting them back on an even keel and a more positive road.
Mark O’Haire:
I think West Ham, understandably fair favorites, and probably do deserve to be minus money. But to me, it feels a bit like a banana skin for them. I think the game against Norwich was possibly a more appeasing game to get West Ham on side. But I think Saints will be stronger for this much after having that break because I believe only Che Adams and McCarthy, the goalkeeper, will be missing. Adam Armstrong and Fraser Forster are back. Broja’s fit, available as well. That squad is looking stronger.
Mark O’Haire:
I know they’ve not been great in 2021. We know that they’ve dropped a lot of points from winning positions. We know that their three league wins they’ve had all season have all been well the same 1-0 scoreline, but West Ham, we’ve talked about before, but no Ogbonna, no Zouma at center back. They do look a little bit weaker at center half, so there is an opportunity there for Southampton for someone like Armstrong, a quick, nippy player with plenty of movement and skill to unsettle them a little bit. Coufal I think is suspended as well, so there’s opportunity I think for Southampton here.
Mark O’Haire:
But I wouldn’t want to touch them in terms of the money line or the handicap. Instead, I went digging around the site, I was trying to find something else. But I’m not a big corners punter-
Flash:
That’s what we pay you for. It’s about time. We’re only at week 19 and you’ve actually gone digging.
Mark O’Haire:
I’ve gone more than just digging here, Flash. I’ve gone down a real-
Flash:
You’ve got the old coal miner’s hat on with the light.
Mark O’Haire:
Seriously have, yeah, I have. Bear with me. But I’m not a big corners punter, but I found Southampton plus two corners at minus 120 and I thought that was quite interesting because 75% of Saints attacks go down the flanks, they like to put balls in the box, and I was really surprised about this, they’re actually ranking fourth in the Premier League in terms of corners won behind the runaway top three. Exclude Liverpool, City and Chelsea, and Southampton have collected the most corners per game, 6.21, which is really quite surprising.
Mark O’Haire:
They’ve won five or more corners in 82% of their Premier League games. They’ve won six or more in 65% and they’ve seven or more in almost half of their Premier League games this season. Basically, if we back Southampton plus two corners, West Ham need to have three or more corners to see the bet lose. If Saints are putting up five, six or seven corners, you’re asking West Ham to win eight, nine or 10. It’s quite a hefty figure here to try and overhaul.
Mark O’Haire:
Saints have won the corner count in 10 of their 17 Premier League games. They’ve only lost the corner count in four those. Chelsea and Man City are the only two teams to win the corner count by three or more against Southampton. Now, despite losing 4-0 at Anfield, Saints actually won the corner count 7-5 away at Liverpool. They won’t eight corners at the Emirates and they won five corners at the Etihad. In their worst game against West Ham, they won the corner count 5-4 as well. West Ham, not too bad at collecting corners themselves, but they’ve only had three or more corners more than their opponents five times this season. I’m expecting a push at the worst, really. Saints plus two corners I thought was quite an interesting-
Flash:
Yeah, Mark, I’m actually asking them in the chat, what is the total corners in this game, because normally it’s set at nine and a half, 10. We’re averaging six-
Mark O’Haire:
Yeah, it’s 10 and a half, I think.
Flash:
Sorry?
Mark O’Haire:
I think it’s 10 and a half.
Flash:
If you’re looking at maybe six and a half, then you’re looking at only four corners for West Ham, you could go over as well, couldn’t you?
Mark O’Haire:
Yeah, yeah. There’s a few angles there, for sure. I was just really, really surprised by that Southampton corners figure, to be honest. They’ve been corners crazy, particularly in the big games against big teams, really surprising.
Flash:
Okay. Let’s have a little look at the official picks because it’s one of those where we can all talk, but only one person’s gone for it, and it’s Southampton plus two on the corners market at minus 120, and that means you have to go digging. You go to BetUS.com, you press sports book, you go down to soccer, you go down to West Ham versus Southampton, press props and then go digging even more. You’re not just going to need a shovel, you’re going to need shovel, forks, everything. And don’t forget your hat with a light on because it’s very, very dark down there.
Flash:
Okay. Next game is Aston Villa versus Chelsea. Aston Villa under new management, Stevie G. Aston Villa are a massive plus 475, Chelsea minus 150, in name alone that price is. Draw plus 265. The total is under/over two and a half with, really, it’s just a flick them. You go over, you’re going to get minus 105. You go under, it’s minus 115. Stinch, I’m going to let you kick off here because Chelsea have underwhelmed in the last few games. Mish-mash, square pegs in round holes and not looking threatening at all.
Mark Stinchcombe:
Yeah, we touched on it at the beginning of the show about having the biggest squad and Chelsea have struggled, no two ways about it, to be honest. Their not the same team as we’ve seen since Tuchel took over in January. This team that’s very controlled in their approach gives the opposition hardly a sniff of a chance, let alone giving them a goal. I think Mark had a really good stat a few weeks ago, they’d only conceded one goal from open play up until the game against Man United when Jorginho got caught in possession. And since then, it’s just two clean sheets in the last eight for Chelsea, which would be unheard of if we thought that would happen a couple of months ago.
Mark Stinchcombe:
They’ve got doubts offensively as well over Lukaku, Werner and Havertz. They’re all ill or have been ill so it’s difficult to know even if they are back how fit they are. Playmaker in Jorginho, he’s a doubt as well. And Villa have been much better defensively under Gerrard. Just the six goals conceded in six games, and considering two of those were against Man City and Liverpool, where they only suffered one goal defeats and actually kept them at bay for long periods of the game. I’ve been very impressed so far with Gerrard. Expect Villa probably to be comfortable now this season, would expect them to finish probably top 10.
Mark Stinchcombe:
And I think Chelsea, as you mentioned the odds at minus 150, far too short, far, far, far too short. Against Wolves in the last game, they opened up at a similar price and drifted a lot before kickoff and I think something similar could happen here because yesterday I put Villa plus one at minus 135 and we can see it’s now minus 140. I think definitely this Chelsea price could move even further towards plus money, and if Villa score, the only way the bet would lose, that Chelsea would have to score at least three. And if you backed this in the last eight games against Chelsea, only once would your bet have lost, which is when Chelsea won 3-0 at Leicester.
Mark Stinchcombe:
I think we’ve all seen, having watched Chelsea not just in the Premier League, but in Europe as well, a completely different side to how they’ve been all season. Very happy to oppose Chelsea, and at the same time, you’ve got to pick your battles and oppose them with a team that you want to get on side at the same time. I think Villa is the perfect team because I’ve just been really impressed with them so far under Gerrard.
Flash:
Okay. But caveat, and this is the first time we’ve used it so far, is lineup check because we know that Villa have had the outbreak. They’ve been struggling, but Villa minus … minus from 40. What about Villa to score just one goal is at minus 140? You don’t even need to go anywhere near that. I just cannot have Chelsea on my mind. Yeah, they might go and both teams to score. We’re looking at over two and a half goals here at minus 105, surely, Mark.
Mark O’Haire:
Not for me, not for me. I’m very much on the same line as Stinch in terms of getting Villa on side with the gold star because for me, it’s a rinse and repeat job to what we saw Chelsea against Wolves, very similar [crosstalk 00:33:36].
Flash:
You think this is 0-0?
Mark O’Haire:
Could be, could definitely be, just because Villa will approach the game in a very similar manner. It’s all about defensive organization, resilience and process. And sure, Wolves are much, much further down the line than where Aston Villa are in that journey, but Steven Gerrard highlighted when he came in the need for defensive organization and stability. He’s looked to try and improve that and I think the results have been pretty impressive from his first six games. They’ve conceded five goals, three of those came against Liverpool and Man City, who I think we’ll all agree are probably the best attacking teams on the planet, and neither of which were given an easy ride by Villa at all and made life very difficult for both of those.
Mark O’Haire:
And you look at what Wolves produced against Liverpool and City, very similar to what Villa did against the two teams as well. You look at how Wolves nullified Chelsea at Molineux. I don’t see why Villa can’t do something similar, considering Chelsea’s potential absentees, Werner and Lukaku particularly. I think Havertz might be back, but as we know, we just don’t know how fit he will be after recovery. And if Wolves do score, Chelsea need three for the bet to lose. Thomas Tuchel’s not been happy about his midfield now for quite some time. You can see again at the weekend, leaving certain players out of the starting 11 when they’re clearly quite short in some areas. I’m quite happy to fade Chelsea at the moment.
Mark O’Haire:
The Villa have scored in all but three Premier League games this season, and as we keep saying, if they do score in this game, it requires Chelsea to score three just to see the bet lose. I think there’s a lot on your side if you do back Villa plus one.
Flash:
You’ve got Villa at minus 140 just to score. What about Chelsea not to score twice at minus 110, is that not-
Mark O’Haire:
Yeah, that’s not bad.
Flash:
… something that we’re interested in, boys? Do we see Chelsea scoring twice in this game then?
Mark O’Haire:
I don’t mind that at all, yeah. But I just like the insurance of the handicap, to be honest, because we don’t need to-
Flash:
We love insurance. We love insurance. And listen, Tony Blair, not the Tony Blair, because I think it’s spelt like a female, but Villa nil, Chelsea nil, I don’t know, this is the first time I’ve seen Tony Blair in there. Al Frank says Villa away is traditionally a graveyard for Chelsea. Everyone wants to be with Villa, so let’s have a little look at the official picks because Villa are going great, but make sure you check on them lineups. Villa plus one, minus 140, they don’t confer, but they both came up exactly the same bet. Villa plus one, minus 140, Villa just to score in the game is minus 140 if that’s the way you want to go. And Chelsea not to score twice is at minus 110.
Flash:
Let’s move on to our final game because there seems to be value here because we’ve got Brighton at minus 110. Brighton don’t score goals, they don’t win games, and here they are odds on against Brentford at plus 310, and Brentford score goals. They’re in entertaining games, and for me, they’re probably in better shape than the hosts. Draw at plus 260, under/overs at two and a half with the over at plus 125. Mark O’Haire, Brighton versus Brentford, seems a bit of a mismatch on prices, but not on the pitch.
Mark O’Haire:
Yeah. This is the evening game on Boxing Day. I’m not really sure that it’s given the prime time position, because I don’t think it’s going to be a great watch, to be honest. But we’re here for betting, right? And Brighton at minus money makes absolutely no sense to me at all. I’m really struggling to see why they’re minus money here. Last season, I think everyone knew that Brighton were much better than their league table suggests. They massively underperformed in terms of the chances created and converted and chances they conceded, goals they conceded, expected points, expected goals. Rankings had them as a top half team, even pushing towards a top six. They eventually got to safety quite comfortably.
Mark O’Haire:
Where as this season, just not seeing the same sort of standard of performance and process, to be honest, and they’re clinging on to a top half position at the moment, and I think everything suggests that they’re only trending downwards at the moment and their attacking process has been really, really meek. They’ve been relying on their defense, because in terms of non penalty expected goals, they’re averaging just 1.06, which puts them in lines with Wolves, Everton and Watford as a comparison, which is a pretty bland bunch to be amongst.
Mark O’Haire:
In terms of big chances created, they’re in the bottom six. If you look at raw results, they’re winless since September in the Premier League, three months and 11 matches. In that sequence, they’ve scored twice or more just once, which was weirdly at Anfield, and across the whole Premier League season, they’ve won by two goals or more just once, which always rings alarm bells when you want to try and get a team on side odds on a team not capable of putting teams to bed.
Mark O’Haire:
Brentford have had COVID issues, which we know about. But I think majority of the main big hitters in the first team squad who had it should be available again. We should have Ivan Toney back, Sergi Canos back, Ethan Pinnock back, Mathias Jorgensen is rumored to be available again. Brentford have scored in all but four Premier League games since promotion. If they score here and you back them with a plus half a goal start, I think you’re going to be in a great position to collect.
Mark O’Haire:
Brighton do have Duffy back, Webster should be back as well. But Bissouma is now suspended and I think he’s a big miss in center midfield. I think Brentford plus half a goal here just makes all sense because there’s no reason why Brighton should be odds on. Although it should be said, I think the draw is a massive runner here.
Flash:
Oh, yeah.
Mark O’Haire:
I think the two teams combined have drawn 13 of 32 games, which is 41%, and only eight of those 32 games, the matches were settled by two or more goals. I think the draw’s landed in eight of Brighton’s last 11 as well. But if you are going to back the draw, don’t just back the draw, back draw under two and a half goals, you’ll get a nice increase. This is not going to be 2-2, put it that way.
Flash:
Draw halftime is at plus 115, Stinch. I’d go draw, draw, draw halftime, draw second half, draw after 75 minutes, but I wouldn’t be going anywhere near Brighton minus 110 to win the game.
Mark Stinchcombe:
No, absolutely not. I think it’s a rinse and repeat, because last time, or maybe the time before, when Brighton played Wolves, they were very similar odds, very similar goal expectancy. We opposed Brighton and Wolves won 1-0, but obviously we just needed Brighton not to win and I think it makes complete sense. I think Mark’s covered most of the key points regarding Brighton. Surely there’s nobody out there backing Brighton minus 110 with no wins and 11.
Mark Stinchcombe:
I think you mentioned previous weeks that Benitez must be under pressure, but nothing mentioned about Graham Potter. Not saying that he should be under pressure, I’m just say it’s a bit strange that Benitez is having to deal with lots and lots of injuries and I know Brighton have of late, but for the first seven, eight of this 11 game run, they weren’t overwhelmed with injuries and he was picking teams without strikers for some reason.
Mark Stinchcombe:
Very happy to oppose Brighton at the price, particularly as I’m very pro Brentford, mentioned at the beginning of the season, mention it on a regular basis, really like what they’re doing, really like their underlying process. Both of these clubs are owned by gamblers and they both apply an analytical approach to the whole running of the club essentially. For me, there’s not the bigger gap that the odds suggest. Likely to be without Lewis Dunk in defense, Brighton, and I think that’s somewhere where Ivan Toney can thrive, he’s a big guy. I think he could bully whoever will play instead of Lewis Dunk.
Mark Stinchcombe:
Probably Maupay or Danny Welbeck for Brighton in attack, so that weakens them in terms of offensively. And Brentford, their all round process going forward and in defense has just been really, really good. They’re seventh for expected goals for. They’ve got the fifth best defense based on expected goals, and that puts them at seventh in the table based on those metrics. Very, very happy to get a team that’s ranked that highly with half a goal start at minus 110. The only way the bet’s going to lose if Brighton win, and that’s something they haven’t managed for three months, as Mark said.
Flash:
Exactly. And here we are minus 110. The hosts, let’s have a little look at the official picks, and there’s plenty in the chat, by the way. Mitch Pony’s picks is saying it’s plus 115 draw halftime. It’s plus 394, plus 395 for draw. Brentford are at plus 0.5 at minus 110 is really a don’t complicate it and, listen, again, they don’t confer, both these beautiful, they’ve both come up with exactly the same thing.
Flash:
Okay, that’s everything from our side now. But we’re complete. We’re done. Now, you’ve asked, why, Mark O’Haire, just quickly, have we not put in Liverpool versus Leeds?
Mark O’Haire:
Oh, god. It should be a complete annihilation, shouldn’t it, really, considering the-
Flash:
It should be, but do you remember what Leeds did in the first game of the season last year? Was it 4-3 or something?
Mark O’Haire:
Yeah, but they had a first team squad then, didn’t they? They’re basically fielding the under 16’s at the moment by the looks of things. It’s difficult. I know Liverpool are probably going to be without Virgil van Dijk, which probably gives Leeds a bit more an opportunity to possibly get-
Flash:
Do we think Leeds score?
Mark O’Haire:
Well, that’s it, if van Dijk’s missing, there’s going to be an opportunity there, and I think in transitions against Tottenham, we saw there is still a weakness in that Liverpool defense when they come up against teams who can get an opportunity and attack quickly. But it’s just playing Scrabble basically with the league squad at the moment. You don’t know who’s going to be fit, available and playing. It doesn’t look like many of those players are going to be back for Boxing Day. It’s a lineup check for me, but I want to be with Liverpool, but I think the handicap’s at three or something ridiculous like that already.
Flash:
Yeah, I think Leeds score might be a price. Obviously I [crosstalk 00:43:26]-
Mark O’Haire:
Liverpool to win, and Leeds-
Flash:
… because we’re not covering it.
Mark O’Haire:
Liverpool to win and both teams to score, if you want a bigger price. But I’d personally wait until the team sheets are out.
Flash:
Okay. And the other one is, Stinch, why did we not pick the Arsenal game?
Mark Stinchcombe:
Away at Norwich, right?
Flash:
Yeah.
Mark Stinchcombe:
Arsenal minus 225, that’s a very, very short price, isn’t it, really?
Flash:
Yeah.
Mark Stinchcombe:
I know Arsenal just won 4-1 at Leeds and beat West Ham as well 2-0. Still not massively convinced by them, and minus 225 away from home. I don’t think they were that price when they played Norwich at home when they only won 1-0. I think it’s probably a bit too much of an overreaction. I know Norwich have got some illness problems, so that might be why the price is where it is.
Mark Stinchcombe:
Norwich not to score, plus 110, I think have a quick look at the lineup-
Flash:
Oh, that’s got too serious that now, though, isn’t it? They’re liable to score against Arsenal because when big teams come, remember what they did against Man United. It’s when the little teams come, they fail to … I think they scored against Arsenal.
Mark Stinchcombe:
Yeah, maybe. I just think if they are missing players because of illness, then if they haven’t got Pukki, for example, again I don’t know what his status is, but I know they do have some problems, but if they are missing some of the first team players, then maybe it’s a spot to take. But I think the prices are about right considering Norwich’s absentees. If Norwich come out with a full team, then I wouldn’t want to go anywhere … I don’t want to go anywhere near Arsenal anyway because I’m not convinced by them longterm, but it’s just not a match I want to get involved in given the odds.
Flash:
Mitch is saying, who would you take for a book-in in the Arsenal game? Mitch, you’re throwing darts and you’re just complicating it, which we don’t do. Listen, I put all the official picks up and you’re going to see a bit of yellow as well. My banker, look at that, Leicester, team total, over 0.5, it’s a banker, our bankers have been going in quite nicely by the way.
Flash:
Right, let me just go back and ask you to subscribe and get us closer to 4,000, that’s why we’re America’s favorite sports book because you are voting with your fingers. Also, ring the bell. Ring the bell means that you’re not going to miss any content again, and that means the three of us will have a nice bit of Christmas dinner, put our hats on and be back working for you next Monday, on the 27th and the 30th. But make sure that you ring that bell just so that we can make sure that you’re there sitting waiting for us in the chat.
Flash:
Let’s hope you have a great Christmas, and remember, if you get a rubbish Christmas present, you’ve to smile and say, “I’ve always wanted one of them.” Don’t do what I do and chuck it and say, “What a waste of money,” okay? Mark O’Haire and Stinch, listen, have a great, great Christmas. Mark O’Haire, you’re going to enjoy because you’ve got an added one at the table. Stinch, may all your presents be exactly what you wanted, especially with the winners. I think we’re all going for Brentford will be the one this week, and maybe we’re going to be with Villa as well. From everyone at BetUS, have a great Christmas, and you take care.
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